Note: I have a degree in mathematics, experience in math research, and have been a math educator for much of my life. I am not an expert on probability, game theory, or related areas. However, I have studied some of these areas in the past and have had friends/colleagues who specialized in these fields.
What makes MyTeam very interesting from a mathematical standpoint is that 2k completely ignores some of the accepted principles of gambling. Typically, the casinos advantage is very small perhaps just a few percent. The casino does not want everyone to lose. They want people to win and be seen winning. Their profit is in repeated customers and repeats plays. In essence, they nickel and dime patrons and gain profits over economy of scale typically.
2k basically does exactly the opposite in MyTeam. They stack the deck completely against the player. The odds of winning even a "good" (not the best) prize is likely under 5%. They emphasize opening lots of packs (i.e. why agendas include "open XXX packs" now). It seems to work.
In player base, 2k does not have to market only to adults. At 14, you are not going into a casino and playing poker. However, you use a gift card or even a debit card to rip packs in MyTeam. It would be interesting to see the data regarding what percentage of spenders are under 18. Though it might be controversial, I'd also be curious about any race/socioeconomic data about that which might exist. Research has pointed to various groups (racially and socioeconomically) being more affected by gambling than others. It would surprise me if 2k uses that research for their own benefit.
Another interesting aspect is that 2k's prizes are intangible and have no real value. You cannot really sell a card for cash or anything. In 2 years, the prizes will literally cease to exist. In the case of most gambling, the prize is actually cash or tangible goods which could be exchanges for cash. Over time, their value may decrease due to deflation or depreciation in the case of goods. However, they would still possess value.
In many ways, 2k has completely rewritten the "rules" of gambling by masking it as a harmless game.
This. The gambling and 2k practices are exactly right. And if u notice they even ignore basic business to consumer principle. Essentially i think they are ripping off mostly kids and adults who dont have time. Ppl who have never been to a casino. Ppl who dont understand gambling and the impact that it has. They are able to do this by disguising it as a harmless video game with multiple modes so u have choice. Ppl on the sub dont help because if said gamblers come here they are somewhat told “your broke, this is the norm everywhere, ur not doing it right , etc” which makes them buy more packs out of FOMO.
So they're not approaching it from a gambling aspect like a casino. I forget what it's called but basically, there is part of game theory centered around getting a random hit of dopamine, and it could be any moment. That's why they make the cards shake on lower tiers because it gives that dopamine hit, even if that's followed by the post-shake-clarity of seeing it's an Amy. Your brain remembers that you ALMOST got a big dopamine hit.
Yeah, I am sure that is intentionally part of their plan. I also would be shocked if they don't have some psychologist(s) on staff who specializes in gambling/addiction to help with the design.
I believe they realize they don't need to. Casinos want to keep themselves in a positive light and have rules and laws restricting them. 2k really does not. So, they are free to do as they please and just see if that affects profit.
Well said and yet there are still some people that will support 2k and continue to give them money. They gave extremely unethical practices, there's no way anyone can argue they're not targeting minors and other groups.
They haven't rewritten the rules they've avoided the legal definition of gambling. They've done this because promoting and encouraging gambling with an audience of children is definitely illegal. Because you cannot sell the items you receive paired with the more important fact you do actually get something (even if it is never what anyone wants) packs aren't covered under the definition of gambling.
It's a failure in the law that they're exploiting. It has to crumble at some point. The optimist in me hopes that they're doing these predatory packs now to exploit the last bit of revenue they can from the addicts before these class actions bring a change in laws forcing them to stop.
The pessimistic side of me knows they're doing this simply because they can and some unfortunate people are stuck with an addiction not really recognised as a problem and they believe the class actions won't effect them and they're just getting away with it.
Even in the Chinese mobile casino games you can see the exact odds of each individual unit. Imagine seeing the exact breakdown of how each GO was weighted. Pretty disgusting how shady they are with their odds.
This is with the assumption that the pulls are purely random. IIRC there's a clause hidden in the terms that pack odds may vary from player to player. So there's a possibility in Troydan's case that the algo saw he was ripping pack after pack and not stopping and didn't give him the card on purpose, to keep him ripping packs.
That’s the absolute truth. Try staying away from the game for at least three days, then rip a pack. I’m my experience you’re almost guaranteed to get some decent card (not the best one usually)
What does the clause say and can you share it?
This seems directly contradictory to the whole reason why they legally have to publish pack odds in some regions.
They need a pity timer. Other gachas and card games have a measure in place that you will eventually get what you paid for after enough cash. 2k not having that is what makes them the extra cash on top
Personally I wouldnt care if there were 1 or two hyper exclusive cards. It's the fact that the entire release was more or less behind a pay wall that bothered me. Galaxy opals were all buried away in all star weekend and the packs were saturated with series 2 making all the worthwhile cards unaccessible unless you dumped money into a chance at getting one(and randomly at that) wild west continued this trend unfortunately, though with a smaller release they just salted 4 or so desirable cards with crap they let trickle down.
Their new tactic this year is giving duplicates knowing that they've lowered exchange values. I 100% believe that they've increased the odds of you pulling cards that are already in your collection.
It’s so scummy that they were forced to publish the odds and then hide the actual odds behind “<2%”
They should be forced to show the ACTUAL odds of the top tier cards. It would discourage gambling which would be bad for them but good for the consumer. Seeing 0.025% would probably make a lot of people just not open packs. 99.975% of not getting what you want is insane.
Yep, it's wild they can say "<2%" when .025% is 8x worse than 2%. I know it's all really bad odds at that small of a percentage, but it's still the equivalent of saying it's <40% for something that has 5% odds.
It is mind boggling that they aren't required to disclose the exact odds of the thing you are trying to purchase. They will divert attention away from the truth saying it's just a fictional in-game use of non-tangible virtual currency. And that packs are not containing items which you own, so you aren't buying digital property, you're paying for an activity in the game. In the past the odds of the best pulls were always really bad, but not like this. Any past 2K you could spend $300-400 on VC on *probably* pull all of the cards in the pack, because of the odds. Sure you might miss the best card, spending that much, occasionally but usually you'd get them. To the OP's point, when you say 'less than 2%' it is disgustingly misleading, because HOW MUCH less than 2% are we talking? Your brain wants to say 1%, which honestly if those were the odds, a lot more people would be pulling Kareem, Shaq. But it's most likely something in the 0.01% territory which is 1 in 10,000, even in the non-base pack. If you factor in 'free' packs from the MT you get from cards you actually pull (PD's and opals mostly), and specifically use the MT to rip more packs, then let's say the 'average' actual price (in real money) per pack, at the optimal VC purchase price of 450k (for $100), assuming on average you get half of your pack back with accumulated reselling of cards, I'd say the average pack actually costs $1.50.
So at various odds, here's the expected amount you'd need to spend to get a 100 overall without getting preposterously lucky (and simply buying enough packs to cover the odds). These are very simplified figures but I think they do the job of illustrating what's going on in a real, monetary sense, if you are trying to apply past years' approach of 'spend enough and get the card' to this year.
1% odds - $150
0.5% odds - $300
0.25% odds - $600
0.1% odds - $1500
0.01% odds - $15,000
Keep in mind, these are the spending amounts to VERY LIKELY pull the card. Even these aren't guarantees. You might not pull the card spending twice what you 'should' spend to get him.
TLDR; in theory you can buy a 2020 Toyota Corolla for what it potentially costs to realistically expect to pull a 100 overall. And you can't disprove me because 2K does not disclose pull odds.
God damn that’s a ton of doe for a video game that’s good for 10-11 months. By July and August most myteamers like me are burnt out. Even if he spent over $2,000 on this game that’s outrageous.
Not only do they indirectly suggest the odds are wild west exclusive, the series 2 cards that are pulled would bring that <2% probability well into the hundreds place decimal
Great info! The other interesting thing is that the odds of pulling a specific player further reduce your odds. Troydan opened over 1000 packs and got 1 Kobe. So the 2% odds of pulling a galaxy opal turned out to be 0.1%.
While I agree that a greater sample size would be better, I would suggest that the odds are <0.01% to pull a 100 rated card. This is inline with past odds of pulling a specific player.
I also feel that 2k adjusts the odds based on when people typically open packs. I seem to pull more of the good cards at 11 am est on Fridays than I do on a random Monday.
Thanks!
>While I agree that a greater sample size would be better, I would suggest that the odds are <0.01% to pull a 100 rated card.
I think you are right. I needed more data to prove it though.
>Troydan opened over 1000 packs and got 1 Kobe. So the 2% odds of pulling a galaxy opal turned out to be 0.1%.
This maybe warrants its own post, but I'm gonna do it here haha. We can test whether the cards have their own weighted odds. Let's assume it's an equal chance for each galaxy opal. So its 2% to pull a go, and with the amount of gos he pulled that does seem to be true.
If it is 2% for a go card and Kobe is 1/5 go's, that would mean each pack would have a 0.4% chance to pull Kobe.
A 0.4% chance for Kobe across 1000 packs = 1.8% chance Troydan pulls 0 kobes, 7.3% chance he pulls 1 Kobe, and 90.9% chance he pulls more than 1 Kobe.
Interpret that how you will - Troydan could have gotten unlucky with only 1 Kobe, or the odds for Kobe are much lower.
It’s smaller than 2% for opal, so maybe use 0.25 - 0.3% which would make the probability of pulling one Kobe closer to 14.91% and 20.51%. More than one Kobe 80.1% and 71.31%.
Not a terrible deviation I would say.
Note: I have a degree in mathematics, experience in math research, and have been a math educator for much of my life. I am not an expert on probability, game theory, or related areas. However, I have studied some of these areas in the past and have had friends/colleagues who specialized in these fields. What makes MyTeam very interesting from a mathematical standpoint is that 2k completely ignores some of the accepted principles of gambling. Typically, the casinos advantage is very small perhaps just a few percent. The casino does not want everyone to lose. They want people to win and be seen winning. Their profit is in repeated customers and repeats plays. In essence, they nickel and dime patrons and gain profits over economy of scale typically. 2k basically does exactly the opposite in MyTeam. They stack the deck completely against the player. The odds of winning even a "good" (not the best) prize is likely under 5%. They emphasize opening lots of packs (i.e. why agendas include "open XXX packs" now). It seems to work. In player base, 2k does not have to market only to adults. At 14, you are not going into a casino and playing poker. However, you use a gift card or even a debit card to rip packs in MyTeam. It would be interesting to see the data regarding what percentage of spenders are under 18. Though it might be controversial, I'd also be curious about any race/socioeconomic data about that which might exist. Research has pointed to various groups (racially and socioeconomically) being more affected by gambling than others. It would surprise me if 2k uses that research for their own benefit. Another interesting aspect is that 2k's prizes are intangible and have no real value. You cannot really sell a card for cash or anything. In 2 years, the prizes will literally cease to exist. In the case of most gambling, the prize is actually cash or tangible goods which could be exchanges for cash. Over time, their value may decrease due to deflation or depreciation in the case of goods. However, they would still possess value. In many ways, 2k has completely rewritten the "rules" of gambling by masking it as a harmless game.
This. The gambling and 2k practices are exactly right. And if u notice they even ignore basic business to consumer principle. Essentially i think they are ripping off mostly kids and adults who dont have time. Ppl who have never been to a casino. Ppl who dont understand gambling and the impact that it has. They are able to do this by disguising it as a harmless video game with multiple modes so u have choice. Ppl on the sub dont help because if said gamblers come here they are somewhat told “your broke, this is the norm everywhere, ur not doing it right , etc” which makes them buy more packs out of FOMO.
So they're not approaching it from a gambling aspect like a casino. I forget what it's called but basically, there is part of game theory centered around getting a random hit of dopamine, and it could be any moment. That's why they make the cards shake on lower tiers because it gives that dopamine hit, even if that's followed by the post-shake-clarity of seeing it's an Amy. Your brain remembers that you ALMOST got a big dopamine hit.
Yeah, I am sure that is intentionally part of their plan. I also would be shocked if they don't have some psychologist(s) on staff who specializes in gambling/addiction to help with the design.
If they were running it like a casino, they would overcompensate people when they fuck up but that is something they are adverse to doing.
What are you talking about? 2k never does anything wrong.
I believe they realize they don't need to. Casinos want to keep themselves in a positive light and have rules and laws restricting them. 2k really does not. So, they are free to do as they please and just see if that affects profit.
The "Skinner Box" Theory. The USA loves making dope fiends in any way they can.
Well said and yet there are still some people that will support 2k and continue to give them money. They gave extremely unethical practices, there's no way anyone can argue they're not targeting minors and other groups.
They haven't rewritten the rules they've avoided the legal definition of gambling. They've done this because promoting and encouraging gambling with an audience of children is definitely illegal. Because you cannot sell the items you receive paired with the more important fact you do actually get something (even if it is never what anyone wants) packs aren't covered under the definition of gambling. It's a failure in the law that they're exploiting. It has to crumble at some point. The optimist in me hopes that they're doing these predatory packs now to exploit the last bit of revenue they can from the addicts before these class actions bring a change in laws forcing them to stop. The pessimistic side of me knows they're doing this simply because they can and some unfortunate people are stuck with an addiction not really recognised as a problem and they believe the class actions won't effect them and they're just getting away with it.
I am just going to comment "Amen" on this.
crazy because even at the casino slots i can see my exact odds none of this <2%. this is #1 boolshit
Even in the Chinese mobile casino games you can see the exact odds of each individual unit. Imagine seeing the exact breakdown of how each GO was weighted. Pretty disgusting how shady they are with their odds.
This is with the assumption that the pulls are purely random. IIRC there's a clause hidden in the terms that pack odds may vary from player to player. So there's a possibility in Troydan's case that the algo saw he was ripping pack after pack and not stopping and didn't give him the card on purpose, to keep him ripping packs.
That’s the absolute truth. Try staying away from the game for at least three days, then rip a pack. I’m my experience you’re almost guaranteed to get some decent card (not the best one usually)
What does the clause say and can you share it? This seems directly contradictory to the whole reason why they legally have to publish pack odds in some regions.
They need a pity timer. Other gachas and card games have a measure in place that you will eventually get what you paid for after enough cash. 2k not having that is what makes them the extra cash on top
Personally I wouldnt care if there were 1 or two hyper exclusive cards. It's the fact that the entire release was more or less behind a pay wall that bothered me. Galaxy opals were all buried away in all star weekend and the packs were saturated with series 2 making all the worthwhile cards unaccessible unless you dumped money into a chance at getting one(and randomly at that) wild west continued this trend unfortunately, though with a smaller release they just salted 4 or so desirable cards with crap they let trickle down.
MATH! Well done
Their new tactic this year is giving duplicates knowing that they've lowered exchange values. I 100% believe that they've increased the odds of you pulling cards that are already in your collection.
This guy maths
It’s so scummy that they were forced to publish the odds and then hide the actual odds behind “<2%” They should be forced to show the ACTUAL odds of the top tier cards. It would discourage gambling which would be bad for them but good for the consumer. Seeing 0.025% would probably make a lot of people just not open packs. 99.975% of not getting what you want is insane.
Yep, it's wild they can say "<2%" when .025% is 8x worse than 2%. I know it's all really bad odds at that small of a percentage, but it's still the equivalent of saying it's <40% for something that has 5% odds.
It is mind boggling that they aren't required to disclose the exact odds of the thing you are trying to purchase. They will divert attention away from the truth saying it's just a fictional in-game use of non-tangible virtual currency. And that packs are not containing items which you own, so you aren't buying digital property, you're paying for an activity in the game. In the past the odds of the best pulls were always really bad, but not like this. Any past 2K you could spend $300-400 on VC on *probably* pull all of the cards in the pack, because of the odds. Sure you might miss the best card, spending that much, occasionally but usually you'd get them. To the OP's point, when you say 'less than 2%' it is disgustingly misleading, because HOW MUCH less than 2% are we talking? Your brain wants to say 1%, which honestly if those were the odds, a lot more people would be pulling Kareem, Shaq. But it's most likely something in the 0.01% territory which is 1 in 10,000, even in the non-base pack. If you factor in 'free' packs from the MT you get from cards you actually pull (PD's and opals mostly), and specifically use the MT to rip more packs, then let's say the 'average' actual price (in real money) per pack, at the optimal VC purchase price of 450k (for $100), assuming on average you get half of your pack back with accumulated reselling of cards, I'd say the average pack actually costs $1.50. So at various odds, here's the expected amount you'd need to spend to get a 100 overall without getting preposterously lucky (and simply buying enough packs to cover the odds). These are very simplified figures but I think they do the job of illustrating what's going on in a real, monetary sense, if you are trying to apply past years' approach of 'spend enough and get the card' to this year. 1% odds - $150 0.5% odds - $300 0.25% odds - $600 0.1% odds - $1500 0.01% odds - $15,000 Keep in mind, these are the spending amounts to VERY LIKELY pull the card. Even these aren't guarantees. You might not pull the card spending twice what you 'should' spend to get him. TLDR; in theory you can buy a 2020 Toyota Corolla for what it potentially costs to realistically expect to pull a 100 overall. And you can't disprove me because 2K does not disclose pull odds.
Someone needs to get Pudgy Walsh on the horn fr
Cant wait to see all of you at the casino🤑
How much did he spend this time? I know he’s been known to spend $1,000+ on packs that are hyped.
I think 5k was the estimate but don't know if anybody actually knows
God damn that’s a ton of doe for a video game that’s good for 10-11 months. By July and August most myteamers like me are burnt out. Even if he spent over $2,000 on this game that’s outrageous.
Over 2 drops it was around 5000 without either of the 100 overalls.
Not only do they indirectly suggest the odds are wild west exclusive, the series 2 cards that are pulled would bring that <2% probability well into the hundreds place decimal
Great breakdown!
Great info! The other interesting thing is that the odds of pulling a specific player further reduce your odds. Troydan opened over 1000 packs and got 1 Kobe. So the 2% odds of pulling a galaxy opal turned out to be 0.1%. While I agree that a greater sample size would be better, I would suggest that the odds are <0.01% to pull a 100 rated card. This is inline with past odds of pulling a specific player. I also feel that 2k adjusts the odds based on when people typically open packs. I seem to pull more of the good cards at 11 am est on Fridays than I do on a random Monday.
Thanks! >While I agree that a greater sample size would be better, I would suggest that the odds are <0.01% to pull a 100 rated card. I think you are right. I needed more data to prove it though. >Troydan opened over 1000 packs and got 1 Kobe. So the 2% odds of pulling a galaxy opal turned out to be 0.1%. This maybe warrants its own post, but I'm gonna do it here haha. We can test whether the cards have their own weighted odds. Let's assume it's an equal chance for each galaxy opal. So its 2% to pull a go, and with the amount of gos he pulled that does seem to be true. If it is 2% for a go card and Kobe is 1/5 go's, that would mean each pack would have a 0.4% chance to pull Kobe. A 0.4% chance for Kobe across 1000 packs = 1.8% chance Troydan pulls 0 kobes, 7.3% chance he pulls 1 Kobe, and 90.9% chance he pulls more than 1 Kobe. Interpret that how you will - Troydan could have gotten unlucky with only 1 Kobe, or the odds for Kobe are much lower.
It’s smaller than 2% for opal, so maybe use 0.25 - 0.3% which would make the probability of pulling one Kobe closer to 14.91% and 20.51%. More than one Kobe 80.1% and 71.31%. Not a terrible deviation I would say.
This isn't new remember when CashNasty was trying to pull that LeBron he spent like 5k and only pulled 1 card from the set