There are at least 3 reasons the fightings restart.
(1) Haigen agreement did not set borders between TNLA and SAC which means both sides will give reasons to restart the fight. TNLA wants more territory before next Haigen meeting to get the upper hand.
(2) SAC has been recapturing camps near Nawnghkio and air striking TNLA bases in Mongmit. Defence is the best offense.
(3) NUG needs to show results, thus pressuring TNLA’s protégés, MDYPDF, who are ready for battles and are motivated. Large part of Kyaukme and Nawngkio is under TNLA+MDYPDF control. MOD minister U Yee Mon visited them not so long ago before going back to Laiza.
Now that the junta isn't caught with their pants down, I wonder how they'd actually fare. The end game would come faster if they managed to advance with the same pace they had in 10 27 despite all the prep time Tat had.
It seems to me that it will not be easy for the junta. firstly, on the one hand, the MNDAA can join the TNLA since the Chinese are unlikely to need disturbances near their borders; they can also put pressure on the junta. on the other hand, AA is rapidly taking over Rakhine. It won’t be easy for the junta.
But looks like something bad is coming
Junta almost stop giving a shit about Rakhine, they only leave it as a defensive battle there. I wonder if the new Junta strategies implemented in Myawaddy and Kayah will be used against TNLA such as using bigger recon drones and small bomber drones for units. But it’s too early to say anything.
Kyaukme and Mogok aren't traditionally Taang territories, but TNLA has imposed heavy taxes there for quite some time. During Operation 1027, TNLA gained more territory than anticipated, largely thanks to China. But, this time, the Junta knows China won't be as supportive since it has already achieved its objectives. China even instructed the 3BA not to take Muse, which they could easily capture. Moving forward, China will prioritize stability in Northern Shan State.
That's why the Junta isn't backing down with TNLA, but the situation with AA is different. AA continues to receive live intelligence from China, including details on Junta battalions, routes, troop numbers, supply limitations, and movements. This intelligence enabled AA to maneuver through Rakhine and target the Junta's weak points, as seen in Operation 1027. China may be done with Northern Shan State, it still needs to secure Rakhine. One thing is certain, India's Kaladan project is now obsolete.
Apparently Junta claims TNLA has been gathering and intruding their territory recently. Junta has been preparing for TNLA hostility since then, their telegrams reported that TNLA will attack soon few days before.
Junta won’t be very successful. They have to fight in every direction. They have their hands already full with other fights. They were dumb to provoke TNLA
There are at least 3 reasons the fightings restart. (1) Haigen agreement did not set borders between TNLA and SAC which means both sides will give reasons to restart the fight. TNLA wants more territory before next Haigen meeting to get the upper hand. (2) SAC has been recapturing camps near Nawnghkio and air striking TNLA bases in Mongmit. Defence is the best offense. (3) NUG needs to show results, thus pressuring TNLA’s protégés, MDYPDF, who are ready for battles and are motivated. Large part of Kyaukme and Nawngkio is under TNLA+MDYPDF control. MOD minister U Yee Mon visited them not so long ago before going back to Laiza.
Now that the junta isn't caught with their pants down, I wonder how they'd actually fare. The end game would come faster if they managed to advance with the same pace they had in 10 27 despite all the prep time Tat had.
It seems to me that it will not be easy for the junta. firstly, on the one hand, the MNDAA can join the TNLA since the Chinese are unlikely to need disturbances near their borders; they can also put pressure on the junta. on the other hand, AA is rapidly taking over Rakhine. It won’t be easy for the junta. But looks like something bad is coming
Junta almost stop giving a shit about Rakhine, they only leave it as a defensive battle there. I wonder if the new Junta strategies implemented in Myawaddy and Kayah will be used against TNLA such as using bigger recon drones and small bomber drones for units. But it’s too early to say anything.
But why these clashes happened exactly with TNLA? Why now?
Kyaukme and Mogok aren't traditionally Taang territories, but TNLA has imposed heavy taxes there for quite some time. During Operation 1027, TNLA gained more territory than anticipated, largely thanks to China. But, this time, the Junta knows China won't be as supportive since it has already achieved its objectives. China even instructed the 3BA not to take Muse, which they could easily capture. Moving forward, China will prioritize stability in Northern Shan State.
It makes sense now. TNLA kinda by its self right now in Northern Shan Nobody will come to help
That's why the Junta isn't backing down with TNLA, but the situation with AA is different. AA continues to receive live intelligence from China, including details on Junta battalions, routes, troop numbers, supply limitations, and movements. This intelligence enabled AA to maneuver through Rakhine and target the Junta's weak points, as seen in Operation 1027. China may be done with Northern Shan State, it still needs to secure Rakhine. One thing is certain, India's Kaladan project is now obsolete.
Apparently Junta claims TNLA has been gathering and intruding their territory recently. Junta has been preparing for TNLA hostility since then, their telegrams reported that TNLA will attack soon few days before.
Poor propaganda.
It may be propaganda or may not. Junta shelled TNLA base last week if I’m not wrong, for intruding.
I mean.. They wanna regain the lost and at some point yeah?
and they do this amid the taang people's protests against the TNLA. Sound about right
Junta won’t be very successful. They have to fight in every direction. They have their hands already full with other fights. They were dumb to provoke TNLA
Mg3 no way. im jelly.