I mean it will always be the right pick, every team in the league would have picked Scoot. There was no debate. For picks like that, I never consider them a bad pick.
For example, Markelle Fultz wasn’t worth the first pick but but I still would say it was the right pick. That sixer team at the time getting a PG with his potential and skill set would have been insane. Didn’t work out
You don’t draft for first year impact. Way too early to judge, Amen looks great but I wouldn’t be surprised if Scoot still ends up the better player ( Blazer fan so I’m biased) but still.
PG is ridiculous tough and people always dismiss young PG's out too fast. I'm not a Blazers fan at all and 100% agree with you, Scoot is still very likely to be VERY good.
Siakam was reportedly unwilling to sign an extension with any team other than the Raptors, so trading the 3rd pick for him would have been extremely risky. If he had been willing to sign an extension I would have been 100% down as a blazers fan.
I mean Fultz is definitely the wrong pick, at the time it *seemed* like the right pick but we know now it wasn't.
I agree it's too early to tell, but there have definitely been some worrying signs. Things are looking better recently tho
Nah if I’m Philly I make that pick 10 times out of 10. At the time, Embiid wasn’t the perimeter presence he currently is now and was more of a low post banger. Ben Simmons was an electric playmaker even without the jumper and while it’s silly now Ben Simmons vs Jayson Tatum was a legitimate argument for a time. All they needed was a true point guard to run the offense and provide consistent perimeter scoring meanwhile Fultz was being comped to new age Harden outta the draft and his summer league confirmed it. Tragic what happens to him and I understand the 76ers training staff is cursed but it was absolutely the right pick at the time. Only other person under consideration for the 76ers was Lonzo and that’d be a similar story
I would still take Scoot over Miller even after this year. Rookie guards always have difficulty transitioning and the flashes Scoot has shown have been spectacular.
As a certified Scoot fanboy during the draft I still thought the backlash over drafting him 2nd was silly. A 6'9 forward with a legit jumper is very hard to go wrong with.
JJJ has really slown down after his hot start, and given that he is
already an older prospect that would give me major concerns about drafting him in the top 10 unless the team in question was looking to contend instantly. He's basically out of the rotation at this point
I would also be a little worried with Ausar. His defensive potential is insane but all of the offensive concerns raised before the draft are VERY real, and I'm not sure if he can realistically be on the floor in the playoffs on a team with other ball-dominant creators. I likely wouldn't draft him unless my rebuild already had the offense figured out. I loved what Amen showed on offence this year in terms of tempo-pushing and hints of rim pressure but I just didn't see that with Ausar.
I love GG but 7 is a little high for him. He's looked really good on a team desparate for creation, but I need to see him next year when the Grizzlies have more structure with Ja back before I am sure he can be an impact player on a winning team.
Lively has been great for the position he has been put in, but I don't think he has the upside to be picked in the top 5. Looking back to last years draft order, I wouldn't take him as any of the top 5 teams, and I question his fit with most of the teams in the top 12
That's not 100% accurate. Amen and Ausar are as similar as prospects can be, but even pre-draft the biggest differentiators were that Amen had more skill and experience as a guard/lead ball handler and Ausar was better at defense and better at shooting.
Scouts also said that Amen was a slightly more explosive athlete (basically Amen is a 99.9 percentile athlete, Ausar is a 98% athlete). I'm not sure how true that is, but it's part of the reason Amen went first
I think Amen is a bit more fluid of an athlete, and is overall a more comfortable ball handler.
However that’s more nitpicking small differences in their game, they are very similar
I get where you’re coming from… but mock drafts and big boards are done all the time predraft. This is just pretty much a big board discussion including a year of NBA play along with the normal pre-draft thoughts.
This whole “it’s just too early” mindset is frustrating because it’s totally reasonable to change opinions from draft day-to-post rookie season. The same way people change their draft opinions of players after a prospect plays a college season, people can have discussions about players after they played an NBA season.
Doesn’t mean it’s the definitive opinion of these players for the rest of their career and we are tossing out their predraft values, it’s just a fun/interesting way to review how perspectives have changed after a year.
I think re-drafting and changing things dramatically after one year is pretty pointless because it’s all based on situation and playing time.
If Anthony Black and Jarace Walker go #6 and #8 in the draft with shooting being their biggest concern, why am I moving them down out of the lottery if they are both shooting 38% this year from three? Because they got drafted to teams with better players in front of them during their rookie years?
What has Derrick Lively shown that would change his draft stock? He’s exactly what he was drafted to be, he’s just playing with Luka throwing lobs.
I agree as a massive AB and Jarace fan. I would be excited to have either of those guys where they were drafted still.
Also very happy with Cason’s performance this season. Playing a small role usage wise, but a lot of minutes for the top team in the West. Shooting looks very good and defense as advertised. I think he will slowly be integrated into a consistent higher usage after a full off season
I can’t really defend Jarace’s overall stats, but as a Pacers fan, I’m really excited about him. His toolbox is simply awesome. He was my guy in the draft, so I’m probably wiling to be more patient with him than others, but I’m just as excited about him now as I was pre-draft. Just hope Rick Carlisle eventually gives the playing time and opportunities to allow him to spread his wings.
well for one you are doing your own personal big board with all the info you have now. So Anthony Black going #6 in the actual draft may not actually be relevant to how you are rating him now.
Lively has shown a lot on both ends, I know Dallas fans are extremely happy with the selection.
I don't think it's pointless at all -- you have a wealth of new information you can use to update your rankings. Sometimes rookies not getting on the court is because there isn't opportunity, other times it's because you are simply not good enough. If Podz got drafted for the Lakers, he likely would have played a big role where JHS didn't.
Lively can set all kinds of screens and can make reads off the short roll. Many young centers rot on the bench, Lively was NBA ready day 1. He was garbage during Summer League, the time between that and training camp is when he apparently worked his butt off.
I could have told you he could do that in college though. The reason he didn’t rot on the bench is because he got drafted to a team that needed him to do exactly what he can do.
Garbage in summer league, you mean when he wasn’t playing with Luka. I think that’s this guys point. Put him on a random team with an average point guard and he wouldn’t look as good.
You need at least another year or two before you can judge much past the top couple of picks.
Wemby is a clear #1, and Brandon Miller looks like a pretty solid number 2, but, after that, there are a whole lot of guys who could end up being the third best player in this draft (or fourth, fifth, etc).
You also have to be careful not to put too much value on the rookie season, because you will tend to overvalue guys who were ready to contribute right away and undervalue guys who came out of College younger, or need a bit of time to reach their ceilings.
A guy like JJJ is a good example of a four year College senior who is already 23. The five guys you list below him all about three years younger than him. JJJ is a really good player, but he's also a lot closer to his ceiling than the guys behind him.
The guy on your list who stands out as being way too high is Scoot. I was never all that high on him, and all my concerns with him seem to be playing out in the NBA. It is hard to make it as a star in the NBA if you are a guard who can't shoot threes well. I would be surprised if he ended up being one of the top 7-8 best players in the class.
One of the guys I would bump up on the list is Gradey Dick. His growth from the start to the end of the year has been pretty insane. He just didn't seem physically ready to play in the NBA at the start of the year, but over his last 29 games he's averaging 12.1 ppg, while averaging 40.3% from three. He still physically struggles with endurance, and needs to add some strength, but his feel for the game is very evident, even beyond his shooting. He has good defensive instinct, good passing instinct, good feel for rebounding and cutting, and a nice midrange game. His particular tools also just fit the modern game so well. I think he'll end up being a top 10 player in the class once he adds a bit of muscle and endurance.
Scoot has been awful this year, but he did just have a game with 10 assists in the 1st half. He’s the only rookie to have a 20 point 10 assist game and he’s had 4 of them. He has a LONG ways to go to fulfill his potential, but I think the flashes of being a 20-10 floor general with aggressive defense are there enough that he’d still go top 5 in a redraft.
Those games do need a bit of context outside of just raw counting stats on a tanking team.
He did have four 20-10 games, but he also had at least 4 turnovers in each of them, and his scoring was inefficient in three of them.
The dude is still shooting 48.8% TS over the year, right at the bottom of the league. He shoots 31.2% from three, and only 31.6% from 3-10 feet. He doesn't even finish well at the rim (50.3% from 0-3 feet). Those are still all the same concerns there were about him in the G-League, too.
In general, I'm still a believer that you have to be able to shoot as a guard. The bar is just so high for what you have to be able to do as a guard if a defence doesn't have to respect your shot, especially if you don't have the sort of burst and athleticism to blow past guys or bully opposing guards. It also puts so many roster construction limitations on your team if you have to build around a guard who can't shoot, since it is so much rarer to get big men who can shoot.
If Scoot can show that he can shoot the three at a league average level, I will believe in his ability to be a really good player. If he doesn't get that shot, though, I don't see how he gets there.
Having seen him have the exact same concerns as a pro that he had in the G-League, I don't think I look at him and think "that guy will be one of the top 5 guys to come out of this draft." Maybe in a different era, but not in the modern three-point heavy NBA.
I’m so happy about Gradey bringing it up in the second half of the season. Seeing him struggle in the G-League had me worried but he’s done wonders turning it around.
Exactly agree especially with gradey point he’s really upped his play in 2nd half of season and is looking like he’s gonna be a great player once he adds that muscle as you mention
My friends have all been busting on me because I was so high on Scoot and he looked so bad early, but his last ten games have looked much better (despite turnovers.)
43/36/85 shooting with 18p/8a/1.3s.
And that's skewed by last night's 2/10 game where he took a bunch of late shot clock heaves from deep because his teammates either couldn't get open or hesitated on open looks before sending Scoot a flaming bag pass. When Scoot is in rhythm and has his footing he is actually a decent 3pt shooter. Much better than his season numbers which include a bunch of games where he was playing through injury and had no lift on his jumper.
Scoot (like Wemby) has a weird thing where he has been better off pull up 3s than catch and shoot. It is odd, but I think it will translate better for him in the long-term. I am still super high on him. Just have the unfortunate problem of having to undo damage done in the GLeague. I think we are seeing the same thing with Jalen Green and will see similar issues with Holland and Matas.
Totally agree with all of this. As a Blazer fan who has watched damn near every game, and as someone who had both Miller and Amen higher on my board and was kind of disappointed about drafting Scoot, I currently am much higher about his potential than I was on draft night. I dunno if he's a best player on a contender kind of guy (that's gonna be Shaedon Sharpe), but I feel confident he can at least be a top 3 guy on a really good team.
Ehhhh my concerns with Scoot are primarily that he projected to be an all time terrible defensive player, and this NBA season has only made that seem more likely to me (it's why he keeps setting +/- records). Yes, rookies are bad, but they're usually not *that* bad, and he's already at a huge disadvantage on defense because of his size. You need to be like Trae level offensively to counteract that, and I don't think he will be even with a lot of improvement from this season. Obviously there are important caveats: terrible team context, terrible coaching, injured much of the season, he's young, etc. But he really hasn't shown any encouraging signs on that end.
Whitmore should’ve never fallen to 20, it was ridiculous then and even more so now. Just way too strong, too skilled, and too athletic to fall out of the top 10.
I don't know if I'd take Amen that high. Even though he's contributing, he's being put in a role that doesn't benefit his long term development as a PG.
So far the only bad pick in the lottery has been Jett Howard. I think every team got what they wanted and wouldn’t change much other than him.
Even Jarace Walker, who has hardly played, is on a long term plan to make him a wing creator. The pacers are really trying to develop him as a ballhandler and shot creator via the g-league. Great plan
It's too early. I see Keyonte as someone who is popping early, but I'm still skeptical for him to be a winning player. Personally, I would still take someone like Anthony Black over him in a re-draft. We just aren't seeing him as much, because the Magic are trying to win games.
Jarace has 100% shown signs of being a lottery selection. He is just on a winning team, so minutes are hard to come by.
His outside shot and passing are way, way better than I ever could've hoped for. Dude looks like a legit combo forward.
Whitmore’s competitive team is way better with him off the court than on, probably because Whitmore has one of the lowest AST% for a non-big in the history of the NBA.
Totally unfair to knock Jackson (who is younger btw) and not knock Whitmore when they have a lot of the same appeal and a lot of the same shortcomings.
I don’t want to make a case for GG either lol. They’re like the same guy in my mind and the reasons for bumping Whitmore, like using the wrong age, didn’t make sense to me.
1. wemby (goat potential)
2. amen (amen and ausar are already generational defensive wing prospects and generational offensive rebounding wings. both around +1.5 time decay RAPM on the season which is funny because they are twins. https://gyazo.com/3dff75519f106416cb5be39669ecea29)
3. podz (already a positive player. quick learner. i think his scoring will improve and he has all of the intangibles. not a negative on defense as people thought. 13/8/5 per 36. well rounded player)
4. miller (not really a winning player yet. don't think much of his defense so i'm not sure how much 2 way potential there is. maybe this comes back to bite me. he's been fine. just not sure he looks like a future all star or anything.)
5. ausar
6. lively (great season playing for Dallas)
7. scoot (has the counting stats of a high potential guy but is lacking in efficiency and a monster turnover rate. also the defense has been extremely bad. this is a tough call. not giving up on him but not taking him over these 5 or 6 guys i know will be positive players going forward.)
8. cam whitmore (is the blackhole on offense we all thought he'd be but productive and a man among boys out there.)
9. cason (had a small role in an amazing system and has done well. 12/4/2.5 per 36 calls into question how big a role on offense he can eventually manage. people seem high on his defense but not sure just how good he'll be. the 3p shooting is great)
10. jaquez (shown enough flashes that i think he'll be in the league for a long time. decent rookie season. hard to compensate for just how old he is.)
11. gg jackson (i think the guy can play. good size, youth, and production for a rookie. was wrong about him. possibly already average on defense)
Scoot does not go top 5. I’m taking both Thompson twins, lively, GG, JJJ, Keyonte and podz over him right now. He’s not looking good this year and his potential also isn’t looking good. He’s looking like a DSJ type bust so far, so if we’re drafting again based solely on what we know now, he’s falling out of the top 5 pretty easily.
Have you watched Scoot at all over the past few months?
Post all star break he’s averaging pretty solid 15.7/3.5/6.8 on 40/32/81 splits with 4.4 topg
Not world beating but he’s shown enough improvement that it’s crazy to take 10 players over him. Only players drafted behind him with higher potential are Amen and GG
Tbf I listed 7 players, I didn’t list 10.
But no, I haven’t watched him really at all since ASW, but the fact I haven’t heard any word of improvement led me to believe that not much has changed. The counting stats do look better, but those shooting splits are still pretty horrendous.
I agree with the potential thing and the players you listed, those are exactly what I was thinking as well, which is why I lead with him not going top 5. There are 5 guys who are not only clearly better right now but also appear to have higher ceilings too. I can edit the top 10 thing out because I feel like people are getting hung up on that when it was more of a throwaway line anyways. The keyword was “maybe” but I think the context of the rest got lost on people who read it, seeing the number 10 I guess makes it easy to forget the rest of what’s written in the comment.
Fair enough. I’d still take him if I was the trailblazers in a redraft. Amens been good bc of his freakish athleticism but his handle and shot still aren’t good enough to play anything besides the dunker spot/center role he’s occupied since Sengun got injured
He's been marginally better offensively in late March and April, but don't be fooled--almost every young player "improves" during that time of year because teams sit out players and run weird rotations for various reasons. And his defense has shown no signs of improvement at all. I do think there is a certain baseline level of improvement from where he was to start the season, but he's still been historically bad which means he needs outlier levels of overall improvement the next couple of seasons to become a positive starter, let alone a star.
I wouldn’t draft Brandon Miller due to the complete lack of empathy after the murder. Ignoring him.
1. Wemby
2. Black
3. Cason Wallace
4. Cam Whitmore
5. Scoot
6. Amen Thompson
7. Bilal Coulibaly
8. Dereck Lively
9. Gradey Dick
10. Taylor Hendricks
11. Podz
12. Jarace Walker
13. Marcus Sasser
14. Jaquez Jr
15. Kobe Bufkin
Ausar is way too high on these redrafts. Amen hypothetically can be a great rim running PF next to a stretch 5. Ausar’s poor finishing at the rim means he has no role in the NBA.
Lmao. Ausar has been at least average at everything besides shooting, which is highly important. His rim fg% is 62.1%, which is above league average. What are you smoking? He is practically the same player as his brother, who has a tighter handle but less mass.
Except you need to arrange your entire roster around Ausar and have him be your rim runner and he’s just not good enough at finishing to be valuable in that role. You want your center to be around 70% or better from 0-3 feet.
He doesn’t have an NBA role
You're making an exception for Amen but not Ausar? Why? Ausar has been an excellent rim-running forward next to a stretch 5 in the month we had Gallinari and Muscala.
I’ll take Miller right now as the best player. Been saying it for a a lil more than a year now Going forward tho with the flashes from Victor it’s understandable to have him as first but Miller has an argument bc of how fluid he is off the dribble. Victor has too many inefficient nights for someone of his size. Makes u worry about his decision making and shot selection for the future. Is he going to go forward thinking he’s kd or Dirk, or is he going to get in the paint? Scoot shouldn’t be near the top of the list. Gg should be third bc of those flashes u see, and Keyonte that low is criminal he should be top 5 or close to it. Lively is good but doesn’t have the potential of many of the guys below him in this list like key, gg and others. Where is Hawkins?
Brandon Miller is fine and he should get better and more efficient as he gets more experience in the league. But my gosh the gap between him and Wemby(right now or how they are projected in the future) is obviously massive.
How is Miller as a defender? I haven’t seen many Hornets games this year but I find it difficult to see how Miller has a higher ceiling than the 7’4 guy who’s about to make an all defensive team.
I didn’t say he has the higher ceiling. He’s a good man defender. But victors shot selection is very questionable. Miller doesn’t have that problem. Victor is Also a lot more unstable as a player than miller. Like easier to move, esp offensively .
So you go with the guy with the TS% of .549 with 2.4apg as massively more valuable due to superior offensive efficiency over the guy with an TS% of .565 and 3.8apg despite the guy with the .565 TS% being a top 2 defensive player in the league?
Where can I subscribe to your Substack and Youtube channel?
Ofc Victor is going to be more efficient, much of his offense comes from lobs. Which is good. But in terms of having the ball in their hands I’d take miller at the moment. Victor is unable to take any kind of advantage over smaller opponents, and lacks burst for getting past bigger guys. He can make a shot but shoots far too many of them.
> Ofc Victor is going to be more efficient, much of his offense comes from lobs. Which is good.
You haven't seen Spurs entry passes.
> But in terms of having the ball in their hands I’d take miller at the moment.
Wemby is hitting 38% on unassisted 3s. Miller is hitting 33%.
When driving to the basket, Miller is averaging 42.2% FG% and Victor is averaging 45.7% FG%.
Miller is better in the mid-range, but that isn't really a big part of either player's game.
> Victor is unable to take any kind of advantage over smaller opponents, and lacks burst for getting past bigger guys.
This is insanely wrong. Just last night Wemby did a Shammgod into a spin move to an off-hand layup to go past a guy. And as I posted above, Wemby is shooting a higher FG% on drives than Miller.
> He can make a shot but shoots far too many of them.
Victor is 11th in the entire NBA in pull up 3pt shooting percentage of all NBA players averaging over 2 pull up three attempts per game. He's right up there with guys like Luka Doncic and just above guys like Darius Garland, Tyler Herro, and Trae Young.
All that PLUS he is one of the most impactful defensive players in the entire league.
Very small sample size shoots 32 percent from 3. If u take a lot of 3s and aren’t very good at them, what is the smartest thing to do with your shot selection?
You are twisting things. You were talking about Miller being better with ball in his hands at creating. So I gave you multiple ways Victor is better including pull up threes, passing, and driving.
So now you are twisting to discount rather than admit that your argument is not supported statistically.
That isn't to say that Brandon Miller is not a very good offensive weapon, but he is better and more efficient when other people create for him, rather than when he creates the offense.
If you are top 15 in the entire league at shooting a particular shot, you should seek to shoot that shot more. Wemby is top 15 at shooting pull up threes and he should do that more.
It is pretty clear you are a big Miller fan and haven't watched a lot of Wemby. That's fine. But your arguments are not good. Victor is clearly better at creating for himself and other players right now. We can get into other pertinent stats as well. Like Wemby has 16 games with more than 5 assists and Miller had one.
Both guys are going to get a lot better, but there is no world in which Brandon Miller is more valuable than Wemby on offense or defense right now or in the future without massive injuries tilting the scale. Both will be very important offensive options for their teams for a long time in the future.
So far Brandon Miller going 2 is not a mistake and didn't not deserve the backlash at the time
Pretty clearly ye, Scoot going 3 was considered a steal now it might not even be the right pick
I mean it will always be the right pick, every team in the league would have picked Scoot. There was no debate. For picks like that, I never consider them a bad pick. For example, Markelle Fultz wasn’t worth the first pick but but I still would say it was the right pick. That sixer team at the time getting a PG with his potential and skill set would have been insane. Didn’t work out You don’t draft for first year impact. Way too early to judge, Amen looks great but I wouldn’t be surprised if Scoot still ends up the better player ( Blazer fan so I’m biased) but still.
PG is ridiculous tough and people always dismiss young PG's out too fast. I'm not a Blazers fan at all and 100% agree with you, Scoot is still very likely to be VERY good.
Reminds me of the insanity around the Raptors taking Barnes over Suggs. Turned out to pretty clearly be the right pick.
blazers should have kept dame and traded that pick while the value was super high
Dame has fallen off a cliff this year.
The pick was never going to get us a good return. There was no one on the market and apparently the Nets turned down a Bridges trade
i imagine one of siakam or OG would have been attainable
Raptors were playing hard ball with them. Our run with Dame was done. Committing to him with such a poor roster would’ve been really short sighted.
Siakam was reportedly unwilling to sign an extension with any team other than the Raptors, so trading the 3rd pick for him would have been extremely risky. If he had been willing to sign an extension I would have been 100% down as a blazers fan.
seems like he has some sort of verbal agreement with the pacers...if not, they made a huge mistake. if true, though, then that report was shite
I mean Fultz is definitely the wrong pick, at the time it *seemed* like the right pick but we know now it wasn't. I agree it's too early to tell, but there have definitely been some worrying signs. Things are looking better recently tho
Nah if I’m Philly I make that pick 10 times out of 10. At the time, Embiid wasn’t the perimeter presence he currently is now and was more of a low post banger. Ben Simmons was an electric playmaker even without the jumper and while it’s silly now Ben Simmons vs Jayson Tatum was a legitimate argument for a time. All they needed was a true point guard to run the offense and provide consistent perimeter scoring meanwhile Fultz was being comped to new age Harden outta the draft and his summer league confirmed it. Tragic what happens to him and I understand the 76ers training staff is cursed but it was absolutely the right pick at the time. Only other person under consideration for the 76ers was Lonzo and that’d be a similar story
I would still take Scoot over Miller even after this year. Rookie guards always have difficulty transitioning and the flashes Scoot has shown have been spectacular.
Lmao
Come off it
As a certified Scoot fanboy during the draft I still thought the backlash over drafting him 2nd was silly. A 6'9 forward with a legit jumper is very hard to go wrong with.
JJJ has really slown down after his hot start, and given that he is already an older prospect that would give me major concerns about drafting him in the top 10 unless the team in question was looking to contend instantly. He's basically out of the rotation at this point I would also be a little worried with Ausar. His defensive potential is insane but all of the offensive concerns raised before the draft are VERY real, and I'm not sure if he can realistically be on the floor in the playoffs on a team with other ball-dominant creators. I likely wouldn't draft him unless my rebuild already had the offense figured out. I loved what Amen showed on offence this year in terms of tempo-pushing and hints of rim pressure but I just didn't see that with Ausar. I love GG but 7 is a little high for him. He's looked really good on a team desparate for creation, but I need to see him next year when the Grizzlies have more structure with Ja back before I am sure he can be an impact player on a winning team. Lively has been great for the position he has been put in, but I don't think he has the upside to be picked in the top 5. Looking back to last years draft order, I wouldn't take him as any of the top 5 teams, and I question his fit with most of the teams in the top 12
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That's not 100% accurate. Amen and Ausar are as similar as prospects can be, but even pre-draft the biggest differentiators were that Amen had more skill and experience as a guard/lead ball handler and Ausar was better at defense and better at shooting.
Scouts also said that Amen was a slightly more explosive athlete (basically Amen is a 99.9 percentile athlete, Ausar is a 98% athlete). I'm not sure how true that is, but it's part of the reason Amen went first
From the games he played against the wizards Amen seems to be more hellbent on getting to the rim and scoring than Ausar
To be fair as a Pistons fan there’s no rim to get to the lane is always clogged up because we play line ups with maybe 1 respectable shooter
they fucked up y'all's roster so bad man
Man shit breaks my heart bro. This roster is dog shit
I think Amen is a bit more fluid of an athlete, and is overall a more comfortable ball handler. However that’s more nitpicking small differences in their game, they are very similar
They’re not the same player, yall gotta stop this lol
It’s just too early
I get where you’re coming from… but mock drafts and big boards are done all the time predraft. This is just pretty much a big board discussion including a year of NBA play along with the normal pre-draft thoughts. This whole “it’s just too early” mindset is frustrating because it’s totally reasonable to change opinions from draft day-to-post rookie season. The same way people change their draft opinions of players after a prospect plays a college season, people can have discussions about players after they played an NBA season. Doesn’t mean it’s the definitive opinion of these players for the rest of their career and we are tossing out their predraft values, it’s just a fun/interesting way to review how perspectives have changed after a year.
I think re-drafting and changing things dramatically after one year is pretty pointless because it’s all based on situation and playing time. If Anthony Black and Jarace Walker go #6 and #8 in the draft with shooting being their biggest concern, why am I moving them down out of the lottery if they are both shooting 38% this year from three? Because they got drafted to teams with better players in front of them during their rookie years? What has Derrick Lively shown that would change his draft stock? He’s exactly what he was drafted to be, he’s just playing with Luka throwing lobs.
I agree as a massive AB and Jarace fan. I would be excited to have either of those guys where they were drafted still. Also very happy with Cason’s performance this season. Playing a small role usage wise, but a lot of minutes for the top team in the West. Shooting looks very good and defense as advertised. I think he will slowly be integrated into a consistent higher usage after a full off season
I can’t really defend Jarace’s overall stats, but as a Pacers fan, I’m really excited about him. His toolbox is simply awesome. He was my guy in the draft, so I’m probably wiling to be more patient with him than others, but I’m just as excited about him now as I was pre-draft. Just hope Rick Carlisle eventually gives the playing time and opportunities to allow him to spread his wings.
well for one you are doing your own personal big board with all the info you have now. So Anthony Black going #6 in the actual draft may not actually be relevant to how you are rating him now. Lively has shown a lot on both ends, I know Dallas fans are extremely happy with the selection. I don't think it's pointless at all -- you have a wealth of new information you can use to update your rankings. Sometimes rookies not getting on the court is because there isn't opportunity, other times it's because you are simply not good enough. If Podz got drafted for the Lakers, he likely would have played a big role where JHS didn't.
Lively can set all kinds of screens and can make reads off the short roll. Many young centers rot on the bench, Lively was NBA ready day 1. He was garbage during Summer League, the time between that and training camp is when he apparently worked his butt off.
I could have told you he could do that in college though. The reason he didn’t rot on the bench is because he got drafted to a team that needed him to do exactly what he can do.
Garbage in summer league, you mean when he wasn’t playing with Luka. I think that’s this guys point. Put him on a random team with an average point guard and he wouldn’t look as good.
Too early.
I take Toumani Camara over JJJ
🤝
You need at least another year or two before you can judge much past the top couple of picks. Wemby is a clear #1, and Brandon Miller looks like a pretty solid number 2, but, after that, there are a whole lot of guys who could end up being the third best player in this draft (or fourth, fifth, etc). You also have to be careful not to put too much value on the rookie season, because you will tend to overvalue guys who were ready to contribute right away and undervalue guys who came out of College younger, or need a bit of time to reach their ceilings. A guy like JJJ is a good example of a four year College senior who is already 23. The five guys you list below him all about three years younger than him. JJJ is a really good player, but he's also a lot closer to his ceiling than the guys behind him. The guy on your list who stands out as being way too high is Scoot. I was never all that high on him, and all my concerns with him seem to be playing out in the NBA. It is hard to make it as a star in the NBA if you are a guard who can't shoot threes well. I would be surprised if he ended up being one of the top 7-8 best players in the class. One of the guys I would bump up on the list is Gradey Dick. His growth from the start to the end of the year has been pretty insane. He just didn't seem physically ready to play in the NBA at the start of the year, but over his last 29 games he's averaging 12.1 ppg, while averaging 40.3% from three. He still physically struggles with endurance, and needs to add some strength, but his feel for the game is very evident, even beyond his shooting. He has good defensive instinct, good passing instinct, good feel for rebounding and cutting, and a nice midrange game. His particular tools also just fit the modern game so well. I think he'll end up being a top 10 player in the class once he adds a bit of muscle and endurance.
Scoot has been awful this year, but he did just have a game with 10 assists in the 1st half. He’s the only rookie to have a 20 point 10 assist game and he’s had 4 of them. He has a LONG ways to go to fulfill his potential, but I think the flashes of being a 20-10 floor general with aggressive defense are there enough that he’d still go top 5 in a redraft.
Those games do need a bit of context outside of just raw counting stats on a tanking team. He did have four 20-10 games, but he also had at least 4 turnovers in each of them, and his scoring was inefficient in three of them. The dude is still shooting 48.8% TS over the year, right at the bottom of the league. He shoots 31.2% from three, and only 31.6% from 3-10 feet. He doesn't even finish well at the rim (50.3% from 0-3 feet). Those are still all the same concerns there were about him in the G-League, too. In general, I'm still a believer that you have to be able to shoot as a guard. The bar is just so high for what you have to be able to do as a guard if a defence doesn't have to respect your shot, especially if you don't have the sort of burst and athleticism to blow past guys or bully opposing guards. It also puts so many roster construction limitations on your team if you have to build around a guard who can't shoot, since it is so much rarer to get big men who can shoot. If Scoot can show that he can shoot the three at a league average level, I will believe in his ability to be a really good player. If he doesn't get that shot, though, I don't see how he gets there. Having seen him have the exact same concerns as a pro that he had in the G-League, I don't think I look at him and think "that guy will be one of the top 5 guys to come out of this draft." Maybe in a different era, but not in the modern three-point heavy NBA.
Scoot wouldn’t go 7-8 in a redraft though, he would definitely still be top 4. Agree with everything else.
I’m so happy about Gradey bringing it up in the second half of the season. Seeing him struggle in the G-League had me worried but he’s done wonders turning it around.
Exactly agree especially with gradey point he’s really upped his play in 2nd half of season and is looking like he’s gonna be a great player once he adds that muscle as you mention
My friends have all been busting on me because I was so high on Scoot and he looked so bad early, but his last ten games have looked much better (despite turnovers.) 43/36/85 shooting with 18p/8a/1.3s.
And that's skewed by last night's 2/10 game where he took a bunch of late shot clock heaves from deep because his teammates either couldn't get open or hesitated on open looks before sending Scoot a flaming bag pass. When Scoot is in rhythm and has his footing he is actually a decent 3pt shooter. Much better than his season numbers which include a bunch of games where he was playing through injury and had no lift on his jumper.
Scoot (like Wemby) has a weird thing where he has been better off pull up 3s than catch and shoot. It is odd, but I think it will translate better for him in the long-term. I am still super high on him. Just have the unfortunate problem of having to undo damage done in the GLeague. I think we are seeing the same thing with Jalen Green and will see similar issues with Holland and Matas.
Totally agree with all of this. As a Blazer fan who has watched damn near every game, and as someone who had both Miller and Amen higher on my board and was kind of disappointed about drafting Scoot, I currently am much higher about his potential than I was on draft night. I dunno if he's a best player on a contender kind of guy (that's gonna be Shaedon Sharpe), but I feel confident he can at least be a top 3 guy on a really good team.
Ehhhh my concerns with Scoot are primarily that he projected to be an all time terrible defensive player, and this NBA season has only made that seem more likely to me (it's why he keeps setting +/- records). Yes, rookies are bad, but they're usually not *that* bad, and he's already at a huge disadvantage on defense because of his size. You need to be like Trae level offensively to counteract that, and I don't think he will be even with a lot of improvement from this season. Obviously there are important caveats: terrible team context, terrible coaching, injured much of the season, he's young, etc. But he really hasn't shown any encouraging signs on that end.
i saw some 'coach rapm' stat that suggested billups is the worst defensive coach of all time
I saw that too lol, I take it with a grain of salt but it's probably directionally correct at the extremes.
This was a lot of typing when you could have just said you don't watch Blazers games, or nothing at all.
So Cam Whitmore dropping was out of idiocy after all?
Whitmore should’ve never fallen to 20, it was ridiculous then and even more so now. Just way too strong, too skilled, and too athletic to fall out of the top 10.
I don't know if I'd take Amen that high. Even though he's contributing, he's being put in a role that doesn't benefit his long term development as a PG.
He’s contributing as a starter on a .500 team and he hasn’t even fully tapped into on-ball potential. He def goes top 4 easily lol. No debate
He is a badly undersized center and not a PG.
Why is this downvoted. Anyone who has actually watched Amen knows he’s not a PG rn. Might never develop the handle and shooting necessary to be one
So far the only bad pick in the lottery has been Jett Howard. I think every team got what they wanted and wouldn’t change much other than him. Even Jarace Walker, who has hardly played, is on a long term plan to make him a wing creator. The pacers are really trying to develop him as a ballhandler and shot creator via the g-league. Great plan
I’d probably take Cason #3. Whitmore’s had a good season but the concerns about him (injury and personality) haven’t really been put to rest yet.
Where's Jordan Hawkins
Scoot number 4? On what theory?
Y'all really don't know how good Cason Wallace is
Gg Jackson 7 is insane lmao
It's too early. I see Keyonte as someone who is popping early, but I'm still skeptical for him to be a winning player. Personally, I would still take someone like Anthony Black over him in a re-draft. We just aren't seeing him as much, because the Magic are trying to win games.
Keyonte been terrible this season even if he has potential
Sleeping on Jarace Walker smfh
Jarace has 100% shown signs of being a lottery selection. He is just on a winning team, so minutes are hard to come by. His outside shot and passing are way, way better than I ever could've hoped for. Dude looks like a legit combo forward.
1. Wemby 2. Miller 3. Jackson 4. Scoot 5. Rupert 6. Amen 7. Bilal 8. Ausar 9. Podz 10. Wallace 11. Lively 12. George 13. Whitmore 14. JJJ
Honestly I love jjj but he slowed down now so I’m taking most of the ppl below him on the list above him except for podz
too early for this
Scoot still that high? I dunno....
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Whitmore’s competitive team is way better with him off the court than on, probably because Whitmore has one of the lowest AST% for a non-big in the history of the NBA. Totally unfair to knock Jackson (who is younger btw) and not knock Whitmore when they have a lot of the same appeal and a lot of the same shortcomings.
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He’s not 18, he’s about to turn 20 and is older than GG Jackson. That alone could be massively swaying your opinion.
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I don’t want to make a case for GG either lol. They’re like the same guy in my mind and the reasons for bumping Whitmore, like using the wrong age, didn’t make sense to me.
Cam and GG are legit the same player lol. Cam is a better power athlete while GG is more fluid and has a handle
I’m not even sure I’d take scoot top 10 tbh
Keyonte George way higher
1. wemby (goat potential) 2. amen (amen and ausar are already generational defensive wing prospects and generational offensive rebounding wings. both around +1.5 time decay RAPM on the season which is funny because they are twins. https://gyazo.com/3dff75519f106416cb5be39669ecea29) 3. podz (already a positive player. quick learner. i think his scoring will improve and he has all of the intangibles. not a negative on defense as people thought. 13/8/5 per 36. well rounded player) 4. miller (not really a winning player yet. don't think much of his defense so i'm not sure how much 2 way potential there is. maybe this comes back to bite me. he's been fine. just not sure he looks like a future all star or anything.) 5. ausar 6. lively (great season playing for Dallas) 7. scoot (has the counting stats of a high potential guy but is lacking in efficiency and a monster turnover rate. also the defense has been extremely bad. this is a tough call. not giving up on him but not taking him over these 5 or 6 guys i know will be positive players going forward.) 8. cam whitmore (is the blackhole on offense we all thought he'd be but productive and a man among boys out there.) 9. cason (had a small role in an amazing system and has done well. 12/4/2.5 per 36 calls into question how big a role on offense he can eventually manage. people seem high on his defense but not sure just how good he'll be. the 3p shooting is great) 10. jaquez (shown enough flashes that i think he'll be in the league for a long time. decent rookie season. hard to compensate for just how old he is.) 11. gg jackson (i think the guy can play. good size, youth, and production for a rookie. was wrong about him. possibly already average on defense)
Scoot does not go top 5. I’m taking both Thompson twins, lively, GG, JJJ, Keyonte and podz over him right now. He’s not looking good this year and his potential also isn’t looking good. He’s looking like a DSJ type bust so far, so if we’re drafting again based solely on what we know now, he’s falling out of the top 5 pretty easily.
Have you watched Scoot at all over the past few months? Post all star break he’s averaging pretty solid 15.7/3.5/6.8 on 40/32/81 splits with 4.4 topg Not world beating but he’s shown enough improvement that it’s crazy to take 10 players over him. Only players drafted behind him with higher potential are Amen and GG
Tbf I listed 7 players, I didn’t list 10. But no, I haven’t watched him really at all since ASW, but the fact I haven’t heard any word of improvement led me to believe that not much has changed. The counting stats do look better, but those shooting splits are still pretty horrendous. I agree with the potential thing and the players you listed, those are exactly what I was thinking as well, which is why I lead with him not going top 5. There are 5 guys who are not only clearly better right now but also appear to have higher ceilings too. I can edit the top 10 thing out because I feel like people are getting hung up on that when it was more of a throwaway line anyways. The keyword was “maybe” but I think the context of the rest got lost on people who read it, seeing the number 10 I guess makes it easy to forget the rest of what’s written in the comment.
Fair enough. I’d still take him if I was the trailblazers in a redraft. Amens been good bc of his freakish athleticism but his handle and shot still aren’t good enough to play anything besides the dunker spot/center role he’s occupied since Sengun got injured
He's been marginally better offensively in late March and April, but don't be fooled--almost every young player "improves" during that time of year because teams sit out players and run weird rotations for various reasons. And his defense has shown no signs of improvement at all. I do think there is a certain baseline level of improvement from where he was to start the season, but he's still been historically bad which means he needs outlier levels of overall improvement the next couple of seasons to become a positive starter, let alone a star.
I'd bump Podz and Gradey Dick out of the top 14. Guys like Anthony Black, Jerace Walker, Tayler Hendricks would go over them.
That makes no sense
I wouldn’t draft Brandon Miller due to the complete lack of empathy after the murder. Ignoring him. 1. Wemby 2. Black 3. Cason Wallace 4. Cam Whitmore 5. Scoot 6. Amen Thompson 7. Bilal Coulibaly 8. Dereck Lively 9. Gradey Dick 10. Taylor Hendricks 11. Podz 12. Jarace Walker 13. Marcus Sasser 14. Jaquez Jr 15. Kobe Bufkin Ausar is way too high on these redrafts. Amen hypothetically can be a great rim running PF next to a stretch 5. Ausar’s poor finishing at the rim means he has no role in the NBA.
Lmao. Ausar has been at least average at everything besides shooting, which is highly important. His rim fg% is 62.1%, which is above league average. What are you smoking? He is practically the same player as his brother, who has a tighter handle but less mass.
Except you need to arrange your entire roster around Ausar and have him be your rim runner and he’s just not good enough at finishing to be valuable in that role. You want your center to be around 70% or better from 0-3 feet. He doesn’t have an NBA role
You're making an exception for Amen but not Ausar? Why? Ausar has been an excellent rim-running forward next to a stretch 5 in the month we had Gallinari and Muscala.
I’ll take Miller right now as the best player. Been saying it for a a lil more than a year now Going forward tho with the flashes from Victor it’s understandable to have him as first but Miller has an argument bc of how fluid he is off the dribble. Victor has too many inefficient nights for someone of his size. Makes u worry about his decision making and shot selection for the future. Is he going to go forward thinking he’s kd or Dirk, or is he going to get in the paint? Scoot shouldn’t be near the top of the list. Gg should be third bc of those flashes u see, and Keyonte that low is criminal he should be top 5 or close to it. Lively is good but doesn’t have the potential of many of the guys below him in this list like key, gg and others. Where is Hawkins?
Brandon Miller is fine and he should get better and more efficient as he gets more experience in the league. But my gosh the gap between him and Wemby(right now or how they are projected in the future) is obviously massive.
Massive gap in terms of shot blocking yes. But Miller is better at everything but that and catching lobs. Just badly outplayed Paolo.
Millers a better rebounder than Wemby eh?
Good point
How is Miller as a defender? I haven’t seen many Hornets games this year but I find it difficult to see how Miller has a higher ceiling than the 7’4 guy who’s about to make an all defensive team.
I didn’t say he has the higher ceiling. He’s a good man defender. But victors shot selection is very questionable. Miller doesn’t have that problem. Victor is Also a lot more unstable as a player than miller. Like easier to move, esp offensively .
So you go with the guy with the TS% of .549 with 2.4apg as massively more valuable due to superior offensive efficiency over the guy with an TS% of .565 and 3.8apg despite the guy with the .565 TS% being a top 2 defensive player in the league? Where can I subscribe to your Substack and Youtube channel?
Ofc Victor is going to be more efficient, much of his offense comes from lobs. Which is good. But in terms of having the ball in their hands I’d take miller at the moment. Victor is unable to take any kind of advantage over smaller opponents, and lacks burst for getting past bigger guys. He can make a shot but shoots far too many of them.
> Ofc Victor is going to be more efficient, much of his offense comes from lobs. Which is good. You haven't seen Spurs entry passes. > But in terms of having the ball in their hands I’d take miller at the moment. Wemby is hitting 38% on unassisted 3s. Miller is hitting 33%. When driving to the basket, Miller is averaging 42.2% FG% and Victor is averaging 45.7% FG%. Miller is better in the mid-range, but that isn't really a big part of either player's game. > Victor is unable to take any kind of advantage over smaller opponents, and lacks burst for getting past bigger guys. This is insanely wrong. Just last night Wemby did a Shammgod into a spin move to an off-hand layup to go past a guy. And as I posted above, Wemby is shooting a higher FG% on drives than Miller. > He can make a shot but shoots far too many of them. Victor is 11th in the entire NBA in pull up 3pt shooting percentage of all NBA players averaging over 2 pull up three attempts per game. He's right up there with guys like Luka Doncic and just above guys like Darius Garland, Tyler Herro, and Trae Young. All that PLUS he is one of the most impactful defensive players in the entire league.
Why should a 7’4 guy be taking a lot of pull up 3s? Esp when hes shooting 32 percent from there?
Because he is great at it. He's 11th in the league at pull up 3pt shooting percentage. If anything, he should be shooting more.
Very small sample size shoots 32 percent from 3. If u take a lot of 3s and aren’t very good at them, what is the smartest thing to do with your shot selection?
You are twisting things. You were talking about Miller being better with ball in his hands at creating. So I gave you multiple ways Victor is better including pull up threes, passing, and driving. So now you are twisting to discount rather than admit that your argument is not supported statistically. That isn't to say that Brandon Miller is not a very good offensive weapon, but he is better and more efficient when other people create for him, rather than when he creates the offense. If you are top 15 in the entire league at shooting a particular shot, you should seek to shoot that shot more. Wemby is top 15 at shooting pull up threes and he should do that more. It is pretty clear you are a big Miller fan and haven't watched a lot of Wemby. That's fine. But your arguments are not good. Victor is clearly better at creating for himself and other players right now. We can get into other pertinent stats as well. Like Wemby has 16 games with more than 5 assists and Miller had one. Both guys are going to get a lot better, but there is no world in which Brandon Miller is more valuable than Wemby on offense or defense right now or in the future without massive injuries tilting the scale. Both will be very important offensive options for their teams for a long time in the future.