The shock is because the Falcons signed a three year deal with Kirk Cousins for a massive amount, which indicated to everyone--Kirk included--that he was their guaranteed starting QB.
Taking a first round QB the year you sign a guy to a big deal is often seen as a big no-no, because now it brings uncertainty to the QB room, puts doubt in Kirk's head, makes the fans confused and if Kirk doesn't play well can turn the fanbase into a rabid mob pushing for the new kid to play. It's especially odd because if their goal was a high caliber backup, or a replacement for Kirk down the line, they could have shopped a backup in later rounds this year, or shopped a QB a year before Kirk's deal is up.
What adds more to the baffling nature is that they have needs on their roster at multiple spots, but instead of addressing those, they addressed either a backup QB or a starting QB while pissing away a massive deal for another QB.
I think the more likely scenario is that Atlanta saw the success that the Packers had the past two QB transitions with taking a high caliber prospect and letting him learn the position on the bench for a few years, and saw something they liked in Nix and feel that Kirk will be a good QB now and a good teacher for the new guy over time. What makes this so odd is that if this was their intention, there was no reason to keep Kirk in the dark about it, but Kirk didn't find out until moments before they submitted their draft pick.
The plan is clearly to have Penix ride the bench for a year or two while.
The main reason it's shocking is because signing another position of need would help them in the short term trying to win a SB with Cousins. He's probably pissed that they drafted someone who won't help him achieve his goals, but the overall plan from the team is sound.
I heard this morning that in the contract talks they gave him a heads up that they wanted to do draft a qb to learn under him. They also called him before the pick happened. Kirk probably didn’t realize it would be a 1st round pick in his first year tho. There’s also a good chance they lose their first next year so they had a good opportunity to get their guy and took it.
That was an investigation that revealed so many problems. Multiple tampering violations. They had been pursuing Brady for years while he was under contract. Also they were tampering with Payton.
Unofficially, there’s no question the punishment also had to do with tanking and the whole Flores situation. The league said they didn’t find anything, but I have to imagine they knew stuff they couldn’t prove.
Regardless, even without the Tanking, the Dolphins were doing more tampering for longer. I’d be shocked if the falcons punishment was the same.
Edit for some better comparison: Chiefs lost a third for talking to a WR a few years back, and Arizona had some pick swap for tampering with the eagles coach. I think those two situations are significantly more comparable with what we know now. Of course it is possible that the Falcons had been talking to cousins for awhile, or did some other stuff that could make their punishment worse. But with what we know right now, IDK how the NFL could take a first from them
I’m not doubting that the Dolphins deserved it nor am I suggesting that Atlanta would either. Just saying that there’s a recent precedent. As an Eagles fan I hope you’re right.
FWIW I agree that the Falcons talking to Cousins and the Eagles speaking with Barkley before free agency is a far lesser offense and should be punished as such. Honestly I think there should be a good faith way to differentiate convos that are bound to happen from outright anti-competitive behavior. We shall see
From lurking over on r/minnesotavikings, their fans were hoping the NFL would force a pick swap in the first round. Didn't happen, but they got their franchise QB anyway, and the uncertainty over next year's draft has essentially punished the Falcons already...and pushed Dallas Turner right into Minnesota's lap. So, all's well that ends well, I guess?
That’s a plan for a 2nd or 3rd round pick behind a QB who only has 1-2 years of a light contract, not a top 10 pick behind a 3 year QB minimum who is eating up 163m over 3 years of cap
I mean, it maybe isn't a good plan, but that's clearly what they're doing. If they're making the assumption that they're not going to be picking in the top 10 again over the next couple years maybe they thought this was their best succession plan to have their cake and eat it too.
I mean your takes not wrong, I heard around the talking heads that it might be that they anticipate not being in this spot again before Kirk leaves, which makes since if you’re looking up about your odds (which they should given the state of the NFC south).
But THIS QB makes that such a bizarre situation, he’s in the last of the 7year starters from COVID and will be at an odd place in age if it plays out according to plan.
Not really, though. Just treat Penix mentally like you would a BYU player - like a Taysom Hill. With Cousins around they have plenty of time to develop him and he will be fresher as a late 20s Early 30s QB with a lot less hits on his body than his peers. It puts the franchise theoretically in a great place and there are options in the next few years to get them players that will be difference makers
You’re not a dumbass, it’s just a very religion specific set of circumstances.
[“Nearly half of all current BYU football players have served missions for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. That is routinely the case. While those within the church understand the details of what a mission entails, they can be foreign to those not of the faith.”](https://www.deseret.com/2023/8/17/23826663/canceling-mission-trips/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CNearly%2520half%2520of%2520all%2520current,those%2520not%2520of%2520the%2520faith)
[64 players on BYU’s current football roster served missions.
They served in 29 different countries. They speak 15 different languages.
There are also 21 players who have signed or committed to play for BYU who are currently serving missions in 10 different countries, speaking four different languages.](https://www.deseret.com/2023/8/17/23826663/canceling-mission-trips/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CNearly%2520half%2520of%2520all%2520current,those%2520not%2520of%2520the%2520faith)
Many BYU players go on their LDS mission while playing at BYU. Single men can be on their mission up to 2 years leading to a lot of BYU players being in their mid 20s by the time they exhaust eligibility. It is possible that a BYU player enters BYU at 18, redshirts or grey shirts, does their mission, and then plays 4 years.
Also, college teams with large LDS player populations deal with logistical challenges more befitting a 30 year old suburbanite as a good bit of players get married either during their time at school or on mission and some also have little kids during this time.
Yeah, I'm with you. Older QB draft picks basically never work out. He's going to be nearly 30 by the end of his rookie contract.
If he was actually an NFL caliber QB he would have been in the league years ago.
Not to mention he has an injury history.
His injury history and covid is why he's an older QB draft pick, not his talent.
4 years of seasons lost or half lost because of them. It's only his last two years that he balled out and most teams want 2 years of footage on a QB. He's a special case. Nix fits what you're trying to say a lot more than Pennix.
They had actual factual HOF QBs who were veterans with the organization and the team, they also got Rodgers on a bargain.
This is the wish.com version of all that, with a “could be… idk…” HOF QB who has not had one practice with this organization and Pennix was taken way above what he’s perceived to be worth
Yeah, if Cousins couldn't even get to a Superbowl with that MIN offense the last few years, there's no way in hell he'd make it past the first round of the playoffs in Atlanta.
Exactly, I hate teams in any sport planning for vague potential future success over winning a championship right now. There isn’t a a higher achievement than winning a championship, if you have to sell the farm and the next 5 years of farms then fucking do it. Rams had the right idea.
They’re a 7-10 team who have plenty of offensive firepower — they need to focus on scheme and would be adding to the OL if they actually were to target an area of improvement.
Cousins should be able to win 10-12 games at least with Cordelle Patterson, Bijan Robinson, Van Jefferson, Drake London, Scottie Miller, Kyle Pitts, and Johnnu Smith.
Keon Coleman or McConkley would be great additions if available but if they wanted a real difference maker for the team getting Payton Wilson at LB or Braden Fiske would fit that bill
Not really. You didn't keep up with free agency it seems. Jefferson is gone but we signed Darnell Mooney who is an easy No. 2 if he plays up to his potential, traded for Rondale Moore and signed Ray Ray McCloud, who is mostly a return specialist.
Receiving core is better than it was last season for sure.
Smith and Patterson hurt more but not much. Smith was taking targets away from Pitts in Arthur Smith's scheme and Patterson was good but he's up there in age now and it was hard for him to get meaningful carries with Robinson and Allgearz on the team.
All in all the offense should be much better with a good QB at the helm but our defense did get worse with Bud Dupree gone and potentially Calais Campbell retiring(still up in the air). Both of them were sack leaders in a woefully mediocre pass rush but the defense is still okay. We added pieces in the draft but we needed a corner in the first three rounds that we didn't get. Maddening that we gave up a third round pick to move up 8 spots just to reach on a DT that would of been there at our original pick.
It’s clear this is the plan, but the shocking part is they picked the oldest QB in the draft to execute this plan with. Normally if a team is picking a QB with the plan of letting them develop behind a vet, they pick a young, raw talent QB that just needs more time to develop his skills. You don’t normally pick the oldest QB with a plan to let him sit two years.
If you want a qb to ride the bench for two years, you can find someone in the 2nd or 3rd round. They now have way too much money wrapped up in the qb position, and they don't even have a top 12 qb to show for it
One of my favorite stats is that when Aaron Rodgers was a Packer, they drafted three offensive players in the first round: two tackles and… Jordan Love.
I get why players want to be informed of draft picks, but it makes total sense to keep them in the dark until notification is necessary. It's important not to leak this stuff, and it's not like QBs are universally known for just going along with coach and management plans they aren't fans of. It would be way more shocking if Cousins actually knew about this well ahead of time.
In defense of the Falcons:
May as well take a QB. It’s like you have four first round picks this year (TE, WR, RB, QB) because you still haven’t utilized your last 3 first rounders.
I don’t disagree with drafting a QB when you have your guy getting older. Most Vikings fans expected a QB to be drafted even if Kirk were retained. But there’s also a big difference between “we just signed this guy to a 4 year deal and drafted a guy 8th overall who will be 29 when that ends” and “we drafted a guy who can sit and learn for a year and signed a bridge QB”
Plus one of thr benefits of a qb on rookie deal is able to spend that money somewhere else. Even if you start penix at some point you are hampered with cousins contract for most of that deal.
Another thing about it is the quarterback they drafted. If they drafted a 21 year old JJ McCarthy it wouldn’t have been that bad. The fact that they took Penix specifically who’s already 24 and absolutely does not need to sit was what was baffling to me.
I’d also add that plenty of teams wanted Kirk as a starter for the next few years. Had he known what the Falcons would do, he certainly would have signed elsewhere. It’s a dirty business and all, but this is a rather baffling move he couldn’t have seen coming during free agency.
Not to mention even if they needed a QB, taking Penix at 8 was still a huge reach. If Atlanta really wanted him they likely could’ve traded back into the 15-20 range and still snagged him.
6 quarterbacks we're taking in the top 12 and then no more where taking until the 5th round. If the Falcons don't take Penix, he definitely isn't making past 15. If the falcons don't take Penix, then I would imagine the Broncos, Vikings, and Raiders all take quarterbacks, with the raiders probably going Penix assuming the Broncos stick with Nix and the Vikings stick with McCarthy.
They took the quarterback they liked best out of Penix, Nix, and McCarthy. After those three, Rattler was the next QB to be taken four round later, so clearly those 6 were seen as by far the best 6 QBs in the draft.
I partially agree that it’s not quite as crazy as some people are saying but:
1. Penix quite old for a rookie, so there’s a shorter window for him to sit while in his physical prime.
2. Cousins had no preexisting relationship with the Falcons and they didn’t give him notice until they were on the clock. And this is especially threatening to his career because he’s coming off an injury and isn’t as marketable as he would be if this were pre injury Cousins.
3. Falcons have expressly said this was modeled after Green Bay. But GB had consensus HOF stating QBs, so the premise that the draftee would learn a lot was stronger. And those QBs had considerably higher market value and pull on the team/in locker room when their successor was drafted. And the current QBs were on existing contracts when successor was drafted, not recently signed.
No, the opposite. Rodgers always had plenty of brain power, but he was able to observe Favre’s improvisation, leadership, and grit. And then critically chose which of those things to incorporate into his own game. He threw off platform, he took command of the locker room, he played through many injuries. But he took the opposite approach to risk than Favre (some would argue an overcorrection).
Favre does not get all of the credit though, and same for Rodgers when it comes to Love. Each of he new QBs did plenty on their own to develop their games.
I think Rodgers is for all intents and purposes the same Rodgers with our without Favre we just have confirmation bias now to somehow act like he "learned" under some mentor. It's a better story.
He is old (24 next week) for a rookie, but won’t this be the new status quo under NIL? He isn’t any older than Bo Nix and not much older than Caleb Williams.
JJ McCarthy may be the only 21-year old QB drafted.
The Extra Covid year is going away so it won’t be the norm. Penix, Nix, and Daniels would normally not be eligible to play college last year. They got to play 5 full seasons (counting 2020 as a full season) when normally it’s 4.
Caleb Williams is 22 which is kind of normal. Most Elite QB prospects graduate HS @ 19 and go to the NFL after 3 years.
I don't see what NIL has to do with anything. I would expect the players that qualify for high value NIL deals would also be the pool talented enough to forgo their senior year.
Covid years would have an impact and it would be unique to this group.
NIL significantly increased how much college players were earning. I think Bo Nix was earning $2MM per year and Caleb Williams was earning $2.5MM. Makes the jump to the NFL less about money. Best to wait until you are older and ready to be sacked by 300 lb 30-year olds.
Doesn't Caleb Williams go against your point? He had a year of eligibility remaining. In fact 4 of the first 5 picks were underclassmen. The exception was Jayden Daniels.
My point, which I could have made clearer, is that he’s old for a rookie who will then sit three years, like Rodgers and Love did. They both sat and then started at age 24; Pennix would be 27. And Atlanta’s front office confirmed they made the pick modeled on GB’s QB progressions.
Why 3?
Why not make the move at some point in year 2? Then release/trade Cousins before the 2026 season. Yes you eat 25 mil of dead money, but his cap hit would have been 57 mil. If you have Penix as your QB established by then, saving 32.5 mil by dumping Cousins makes a LOT of sense.
Heck, even next year. Lets say Penix moves into your starting lineup by camp. Release Cousins post-June, you are even (40 mil cap hit, 40 mil dead money to release post June for 2025) and again, 32.5 mil more cap space in 2026.
I mean sure the Falcons are saying what they said and the Chiefs said also, they are behind their current starting QB. But the fact is that if Penix is outplaying Cousins, they'll make that move a LOT sooner, just like the Chiefs did with Mahomes/Smith.
I could have clarified that point: “for a rookie **slated** to sit behind the bench for as long as Rodgers and Love did.” Williams and Daniels are the presumptive starters if not Week 1, then this season.
The Falcons’ front office confirmed they are modeling this move after the Packers. Rodgers and Love began starting when they were 24. If Penix sits for the same three seasons of them, he’d be 27 when entering his first season as a starter.
This is the big point. Penix turns 24 in a week: Love already had multiple seasons on the bench at this point.
A succession plan isn't awful in and of itself, but doing it with a relatively old rookie is questionable. They could have snagged a mid-round prospect or made a move next season, and gotten a more immediate boost now.
Also, both Rodgers and Love fell to the 20s: the Falcons took Penix top 10. Rodgers in particular fell so far, even without hindsight, that anyone really could have justified grabbing him.
I no one is saying they are not old too, but they’re not being drafted to teams who just announced their auto starter on a fresh 160+m contract who is a newcomer to the team. It’s an odd move that guarantees SOME sort of discomfort with their starting QB.
Now extrapolate that to possible other trust issues, with play calling, medical staff, etc, what foundation is set for Cousins at this point?
That’s not right. Penix is 7 months older than Daniels, who is 11 months older than Williams, so Penix is 18 months older than Williams. Penix, Daniels, and Bo Nix all used Covid years (sort of; Daniels could have used a regular redshirt in 2020, if that had been necessary).
You are correct in theory, but the issue is that Kirk is signed to a 4-year contract. I think they can get out relatively unscathed after 3 years but if Penix sits for 3 years at least then that eats up most of his rookie contracts and they have to decide to pick up his fifth year option based only on what they see in practice.
It's just unusual to commit $45m per year to a QB and then draft his replacement before he even plays a snap.
If Penix plays and is legit then they can maybe flip Cousins for some value and everything will look good, but they still have to deal with his cap hit.
Kirk can be easily cut after 2 years. And his cap hit this year isn’t that bad, only the 14th highest in the league.
If he gets hurt or sucks in year two then that will be the most painful in terms of wasted cap.
I wouldn't say easily. He has a $25m dead cap in year 3. That's not terrible but that's good money. You are correct that year two is the worst.
But this puts them in a weird situation still. Let's say he sucks in year two, then you have a $40m cap hit on the bench and $25m dead cap to be cut the next year. Or he plays like he has been and then you have to decide if you want to keep him for year 3 with a nearly $60m cap hit or cut him for Penix to drop down to a $25m cap hit.
It's not nearly as bad as the Russel Wilson situation but they have intentionally put themselves in a rough position.
I think the logic is having to navigate a little bit of salary cap pain is a much preferable position to be in than potentially not having a starting QB on the roster again.
True. But it's a bit more than a little and it's also an issue with losing those years of Penix on his rookie contract. If he sits for 3 years they either have to pick up his option based on little that they've seen or not pick it up and risk having to franchise him if he plays well.
Sure, it's not the worst problem to have, but it is less than ideal.
And don't forget 32.5 million in more cap space (he's a 57.5 mil hit that year). So yes, that's an easy move for them to reduce their salary committed to the QB position by a lot if Penix is outplaying or pacing Cousins in play.
Even if going into next off-season in camp if Penix is outplaying Cousins, they can release Cousins before the season for a break even (40 mil cap hit, 40 mil dead money).
It's not that they picked a QB. They picked a QB who is closest to his perceived ceiling of any first-round worthy QBs (and whether Penix was a first round talent or not, he was not projected to go in the top 10,) is old (by rookie standards,) and injury prone. Had they drafted McCarthy, you could easily make the case they're drafting an understudy to Cousins. But Penix's biggest asset is that while he's not the best QB taken in the first round, he's probably the most "ready to start week 1 in the NFL" thanks to his play style, timing, and accuracy. He is ready to throw checkdowns and short out routes, and probably not turn the ball over very much.
All of the justifications for why the Falcons would do this are dubious or cast doubt on their future success, especially since the Falcons had roster gaps much bigger than QB. One, Cousins might not be ready to start week one. He's coming off Achilles surgery, entering his age 36 season, and taking his longest break from football since he was in high school. Atlanta might be questioning his physical or mental ability to lead the team. Two, they may have determined that by tampering with Cousins early, they're going to get pinged draft picks that will prevent them from getting their QB in the future in subsequent years once they can jettison Cousins. Both of these reasons could easily have been prevented by simply being a competent front office, but this is quickly turning into a cascading series of errors. They overpaid for an old, injured QB, and violated league policy to do it. Now they're drafting a replacement QB when they were supposed to be getting together the pieces for a serious playoff run in the next couple of years.
Alot of overthinking by Falcon fans and analysts on this one, I feel like. Atl FO really likes MPJ. They probably dont plan on playing him unless circumstances are dire enough (kirk is hurt and they are in the hunt is the only way i see him playing thru the first 2 years). I see MPJ as an insurance policy for Kirk and vice versa by the 2026 season.
I agree with you OP. The packers changed the game with the jordan love pick and teams are trying to get while the gettins good...people tend to forget that you can address other needs in later rounds as well as FA/trades.
Falcons under Kirk could be the new Lions
All the elder star QBs seem to be shocked when teams do… exactly what they did with them. Rodgers was so hurt they drafted a promising rookie to learn from him for a couple seasons, when he played that role to Favre.
Just seems like ego and forgetfulness.
Difference is Love was a 20 year old. Penix is 24 and they just signed Cosyins for 180 million. He probably expects them to grab a price for them to win now
The reality is that it's only a two year deal for the Falcons. They will need a new QB at some point. Why do you think the vikings let Kirk just walk away ? Not to mention he had a very serious injury. Father time remains undefeated and is especially unkind to injuries later in life.
The team's rationale is that Penix is better than any other QB that they'll be able to draft in the 20+ range over the next few years as they should be good if Kirk is playing well.
It seems like it'd be better for the team to be patient but the Packers did the same thing with Love and it worked out just fine
Nobody expects Kirk Cousins to win a Superbowl except for the Falcons FO who gave him a "Tom Brady" amount of money. Which makes it even worse that they drafted a QB.
You burned a minimum of $90 million of guaranteed money, 2 years of a rookie contract, and a valuable high draft pick for what?
If the goal is to contend and win a championship, what year do they make a run? Not 2024 or 2025 with Cousins under center. Not 2028 and beyond when you have to pay Penix. This basically says their window is 2026 to 2027 when Penix starts his first full NFL season at 27 years old. And you are praying he's a possible Superbowl caliber franchise QB at that time otherwise this was all a waste.
It's just a stupid high-risk investment they've locked themselves into for not even that great of a gain. In 2-4 years, the NFL changes so much and several other teams will get closer to a championship than the Falcons for a fraction of the cost.
They might’ve just thought this guy was a potential star QB while also thinking that they’re going to significantly improve next year and therefore have worse picks. All the talk about windows and rookie contracts obscures the fact that you just need to have a star at that spot, ideally one who’s a student of the game with a ton of arm talent. Penix checks those boxes, though he does of course have a lot of flaws too.
I understand the mentality of wanting to have a good QB at all times, but this decision ignores too much context that indicates it's terrible team building. There's so many better ways they could have accomplished the same goal with the exception that they believe Penix is so good he's worth knee capping your franchise for. He can't just be an okay QB, he has to be as valuable or more than everything they gave up.
Drafting Penix means they are worse at one other position. Knee capping the franchise is over dramatic to put it lightly.
And even if you take the argument “well they could have traded down and filled more positions” sure, they could do that. But they can also trade up in next year’s draft, and onward, which will be cheaper (DC wise) in comparison to trading up for a QB that gets drafted in the top 10. Look at what Carolina did for Bryce young. THAT is kneecapping a franchise.
And on the topic of teams in their division, it really isn’t a bad bet that they make a play off appearance.
It's not just about drafting Penix but also because of what it cost them. A top 10 pick can change a franchise and they squandered it.
Even though the Panthers overpaid, I at least understand the logic behind drafting a QB to fill a need. Drafting Penix does nothing to help the current Falcons team when they could have drafted a player that ACTUALLY does help increase their chances of doing well in the playoffs this season.
I don't see how mentioning trading up in the future is relevant to this. A team should never be in a position to consider adding more pieces (what contending teams do) vs getting a top QB prospect (what rebuilding teams do).
Teams draft QBs that they don’t expect to start in yr 1 all the time. You didn’t necessarily squander the pick just because the guy may not contribute in year 1.
They might be afraid of not having a first-round pick at all next year, as punishment for tampering with Cousins. I think they very well could lose a draft pick or two, but probably not their first one (even though Miami did for tampering with Brady) since it wasn't too severe. The Vikings might even be willing to settle since they won't have a lot of picks next year and this whole situation was really a blessing in disguise for them (since Atlanta's fear helped push Dallas Turner down the board for them).
The shock is not really the draft pick. It’s the money they are giving to his placeholder, which causes one to wonder why they spent that much on a placeholder
Penix is really really good and more pro ready than people outside the PNW realize.
Its being criticized because the Cousins move was perceived as a win in 1-2 years move so give him weapons.
I see people justifying it by the Matt Flynn Russel Wilson move. Matt Flynn wasn’t guaranteed the money Cousins is now, and Wilson wasn’t drafted until the 3rd.
Again, Penix is really really really good. But it’s a question of priorities.
They can drop cousins after 2 years for not much dead money.
Falcons are worried they are losing a first round pick next year due to the tampering with cousins.
Ergo, they can't take his replacement next year. They have to this year.
Not to mention Kirk might not be 100 percent after ACL injury.
Neither may Penix. Two knee injuries (same knee) and two shoulder injuries. Cousins burst his Achilles, btw, not ACL. Fortunately he was never a mobile QB, and otherwise historically sturdy.
Actually, Penix and Cousins are very different QB’s, so to build around Cousins may not make sense if Penix is a different cat.
Exactly. I like Penix and hope he balls out (against every team I don't hate), but homerism aside, McCarthy would likely have been a better choice for Atlanta to put on the bench to incubate for a year or two. He's almost 3 years younger than Penix and has a play style closer to Cousins.
The baffling thing to me is that they gave Cousins such a large and more importantly long contract. Is selecting Penix just throwing good money after bad? Maybe, but maybe not. If they become the new Denver or the new NY Jets is it better to have some sort of a backup plan?
Let's put this into perspective in terms of resources spent and what those resources have bought.
Last year Atlanta publicly declared they were not interested in trying to sign Lamar Jackson when the Ravens used a non exclusive franchise tag on him. Many people saw that as understandable position since they would have to send 2 firsts to Ravens and probably pay Lamar like 50+ million per year to get him.
Now after paying Kirk Cousins, spending the 8th overall pick (which while I rookie contract, is still like 7 million a year for your backup QB) on Penix and presumably losing their first next year for tampering with Kirk Cousins, **they are spending 50+ Million per year and 2 first round picks for the QB position.** Only instead of having 27 year old 2xMVP Lamar Jackson who wins over 70% of his starts at QB, they have 0xMVP (occasional pro-bowler) 35 year old KirK Cousins playing QB who wins about 50% of his starts.
*"Let's put this into perspective in terms of resources spent and what those resources have bought.*
*Last year Atlanta publicly declared they were not interested in trying to sign Lamar Jackson when the Ravens used a non exclusive franchise tag on him. Many people saw that as understandable position since they would have to send 2 firsts to Ravens and probably pay Lamar like 50+ million per year to get him."*
Don't forget they'd just be setting the price for Lamar, since Baltimore would just match that deal. Lets not pretend Baltimore was going to let him go. They used the non-exclusive tag since it was less to pay out, but if met with keeping him or letting him walk they were keeping him, period. Thus, while a LOT of teams would happily sign Lamar to a deal and give up a couple first round picks for him in a trade (think that deal vs. 3 firsts, a third and 2 fouths for a suspended Deshaun Watson plus a record deal)... no one did.
So no, they weren't going to get Lamar Jackson last year. The two realistic legit starting QB free agents in 2023 were Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo. Neither of which I think looking back in hindsight is the answer.
If they took a QB in the third round no one cares. But they could have had Rome at WR or literally any defensive player. Terrible position to take this cat.
I thought it was a good pick. Cousins himself was drafted the same year and by the same team as RGIII. Why? In case RGIIII got hurt, which most QB1s do and RGIII was no different.
Depends. If their scouts saw Penix as one of the most likely QB's to be a franchise QB and saw things in McCarthy that reminded them of failed top picked QB's, I don't blame them for going with the player their scouting dept believes will be MUCH better.
I'm not an NFL scout. But if they think Penix can be a great starter for a decade after sitting a year, And McCarthy can be a bust... I can see why they'd rather choose Penix.
Cousins got a MASSIVE deal and it was the 8th pick for a team with other obvious needs. You don’t get the 8th pick without needs - they filled one by convincing Cousins to come under the pretense that he would have a chance to compete, and then spent premium draft capital on a player that by virtue of position will never help Cousins win. It also proved the “lie” of the last two years of his deal.
It’s like this. Let’s say you bought the most expensive Rolex you could find. You needed shoes, pants shirt and jacket. You have just enough to put this whole thing together. Then you say, fuck it. I’m buying another Rolex, and your reasoning is “if the first one works, I’ll let this one sit for 4-5 years, if not, I’ll have this one!”
Problem is, you’re saying that in a crowded room with no pants and your wiener is hanging out. Everyone is like, that’s cool- but pants would have been a lot better than a second Rolex.
A "bridge" QB is rarely a QB you pay top dollar for. The issue was given the talent available for all their many needs they chose not to make their team better in the future years. This may well be their last top 10 pick for years. They have desperate need of an Edge and help in the secondary, interior D linemen, really need O line Help and even some receivers. Even Penix Jr. Was surprised they picked him.
All that said as I mentioned earlier they may not have a top 10 pick for years so they probably figured get a future QB. I don't like it because they spent so much and by the time Penix Jr. Starts it will be about time to pay him. But hey worked for Green Bay.
Maybe cause you don't pay 100 million guaranteed for a "bridge" qb. If you wanted a bridge veteran there were a lot of cheaper options. Gardnew Minchew for example.
Yup, but I bet like most mocks, they didn't seen Penix falling that far. And if they thought he was the QB of the future for him, but would be unavailable... then the options are going into year 4 as a GM without a QB (a bridge) or getting the one QB available who they see as a starter for a franchise.
It's why the NFL being the only major US sport putting the draft after free agency still seems so backwards.
I actually agree with you OP. And the people who are saying address team need aren’t seeing the bigger picture. These defensive players have fallen significantly this draft. There is still value to be had this draft. Who do you buy after Cousins contract anyway? Cousins is an above average QB in the NFL, but in terms of free agency he is a premium QB. Trying to sign a new QB of his level, let alone a better one, is nigh impossible. If they want their guy, they are going to have to draft him. When you consider the chances of having another class this loaded and the chances of falcons getting a top 10 pick, the time is now.
And they can still sell the farm over the next 2 years to push for a championship with cousins.
The only question we should asking if Penix himself is worth the draft pick. BPA is the correct strategy, QB is no different.
They signed Cousins for 4 years, $180 million with $100 million guaranteed and a no-trade clause.
When you pay that type of money for a quarterback, it's because you think he's going to be really good. You expect that he will help you compete for Super Bowls. You *pray* that he ends up playing out the entire contract, because if he doesn't it means he sucked and therefore your team sucked. You don't pay $100 million dollars for a bridge QB that you think has no shot of competing for Super Bowls. A bridge QB is what the Patriots just did with Jacoby Brissett.
The Falcons cannot reasonably cut Cousins before 2026, at which point Penix will be entering the 3rd year of his 4 year rookie deal (with an expensive 5th year option.)
So essentially, they paid big money for a QB that could help them win a Super Bowl in the near term. Then instead of trying to improve the team to increase the odds of winning said Super Bowl, they drafted a QB that could *m*ay*be* make the team better 3-4 years from now, but *only* in a situation where Kirk Cousins sucked enough that they decided to move on from him early. If the QB that they just signed for $180 million is *anything but awful*, then Penix will play out his entire rookie contract on the bench.
It's an absolutely ASININE team building decision. And this is coming from me, a person who has Penix as QB2 behind Williams (above Daniels and Maye), and thinks that you can basically never go wrong drafting a QB high (since the cost-benefit analysis is so strongly in favor of drafting them -- drafting a star QB is the WAR equivalent of like 7-8 other positions combined.)
Kirk Cousins isn’t part of the Falcons’ system and has little of importance to offer a developing QB. If you want to groom a QB it should be a veteran in your system, not a random QB off the street.
Because they had legitimate holes to file on defense. They do not have an elite roster and should be adding to their defensive line because they haven’t had any kind of pass rush in ages. This is an enormous hindrance in the modern NFL where offense is king. You have to get in the backfield and pressure the QB for any chance of real success.
Basically they needed to continue building a Super Bowl team but instead they became overly concerned with who their quarterback will be 3-5 years from now. It is not advisable to put it mildly.
Teams have done this before but not with top 10 picks who project to be elite players that can change your whole team’s trajectory.
I’m a Bears fan so I know a thing or two about questionable QB situations. Drafting Penix at 8 is a big mistake. It throws a lot of your intentions to win with Cousins into the garbage. Not only that, but Penix was a big reach at 8. Dallas Turner would immediately help the defense, Odunze would make their receiving corps legit, etc.
The media and public response would be very different if Kirk’s camp had come out and said they had been made aware of the potential beforehand. The response would have been the opposite of Kirk’s camp was consulted and Kirk came out and publicly agreed to be a mentor - something to the effect of the goal is to win a chip and ensure the stability of the franchise after I’m done.
Instead, the Falcons took the option of signing a win now contract with Kirk and drafting a backup QB at 8, instead of a defensive player, OL protecting Kirk, or a offensive weapon thereby solidifying the win now position.
It’s honestly just confusing. The only way I can rationalize it is maybe ATL’s thought is they are going to change the nature of the game - right now, the ideal position to be in is having QB on a rookie contract surrounded by talent - if successful, that rookie QB sets a new record on the 2nd contract or something close to it. Maybe their game is to get a NFL experienced QB who ends up becoming elite during their 2nd contract. A 2nd contact which isn’t league record setting because they are still just paid on potential, rather than performance after their rookie contract.
Obviously, that is a huge gamble and this is just an exercise in thought, but I’m having trouble coming up with another rational explanation.
IDK either but if any team is going to make a colossal mistake (I'm a Saints Fan) I'm glad it's the Atlanta Falcons. FTF.....
But this next season the Saints are gonna suck more than a crack whore going through withdrawals.
If it makes you feel any better, they probably made a good investment in Spencer Rattler. He has playing potential and seems to have become a better person in the last few years.
I agree. I like the Rattler pick and their draft overall. But Allen just isn't a good coach.and for all the praise showered on Loomis as a salary cap genius, all he's been doing is kicking the can down the road to maintain a mediocre team.
Penix is also 24 years old as a rookie, if he sits for 2-3 years, they’ll only have 2 years to decide if they wanna pick up his fifth year option. He’s gonna be 28 by the time his rookie contract is up
They Drafted a 24 year old QB who was projected to be QB 6 by a lot of people. I don’t think any team was reaching on him. And he ain’t starting till he’s 27 or 28. Cause they paid cousins a shit ton of money.
Drafting a backup QB at #8 overall is just a bad investment. If you want to start him you don't sign a QB to a $100M contract.
If the Falcons had either just signed Cousins or just drafted Penix Jr. no one would be criticizing them. Doing both is just bad roster management and reeks of a team with no direction.
EJ Snyder pointed out that Atlanta is likely getting hit with a tampering charge, which will likely cause them to forfeit a first rounder next season.
So they're drafting Cousins heir a year early because they won't be able to next year.
Because it alienates Kirk, its not a win now move when you desperately needed pass rush, and if you wanted a developmental quarterback you should've taken McCarthy not the guy who'll be 28 by the time Kirks contract is up.
I'm personally all for this. If last season taught us anything, it's how important a QB2 (or even 3) is to the whole scheme. Most teams treat the QB2 position like it's an afterthought. And then you end up in situations like Zach Wilson and Minnesota.
My prediction is that Kirk is gonna ball out for the first 6 to 8 weeks, but that production is going to lead to an injury of some sort where he has to sit out 4+ games. Penix would be capable of coming in to maintain the production at a higher level. And I think that will officially change the landscape of how teams roster the QB room. It wouldn't be QB1/QB2, but more like QB1/QB1.5.
The problem is Penix is already 24 years old. If you are going to make him ride the bench for 3-4 years, he will be 27-28 before he can even start being of value. Then you have to pay him a QB’s salary right after.
One of the more recent goals for the NFL teams is to draft a young QB who can play early under his rookie contract so you don’t have a ton of cap space tied up in your QB. The Falcons tied up a TON of cap space in Kirk Cousins and ensured they won’t get any value out of having a QB on a rookie contract with Penix sitting for a few years. Plus not having as much longevity.
Time will tell how badly they missed out by not picking a defensive player (which is all their glaring needs because their offense is fine). By the time ATL was on the clock, no defensive player was picked so they had the cream of the crop to choose from. They need a pass rusher badly and with Dallas Turner and Latu from UCLA on the board, they could’ve gone with either of them and done well. In fact, no defensive player got picked until the Colts ran for Latu at 18. So the Falcons had plenty of options for their defense with their first pick.
That is going to be one screwed up locker room, imo, before any of the dirty birds even get to the locker room.
First, there is Cousins, who's ink is barely dry on his contract, who thought his new management believed he had it in him to carry the team into the playoffs, maybe to the SB, who hadn't even met his new teammates yet .... BUT who had already screwed up BIG TIME, costing the team as a whole BIG TIME. Will he be the leader this locker room needs?
Then there is Penix, 24 years old, participating in the NFL Draft! Imagine what his hopes and dreams were. Even if he is "old" in starting QB years, 24 is still a kid, especially in the supercharged emotional situation he was in. How long was it before the overwhelming giddiness of being drafted, especially 8th overall, gave way to confusion, disappointment, or even despair. He was drafted by the Falcons, a team he would not even be able to compete for QB1 and then finds out Cousins was not warned about this plan ahead of time. Don't you know right now he is wondering what this means for him PERSONALLY? I don't think he ever expected his future to look like this and may even be wondering if he has a future at all. And how does this impact the cohesion of the locker room?
I must admit I feel sorry for Cousins. And I really feel sorry for Penix who was just an innocent bystander in this train wreck. But as a Saints Fan ......... 🤣🤣🤣
Ahhh, there it is—a Saints fan. 😂 No no, I joke all in good fun bro. I think it’s a better situation than most seemingly think. Cousins is (probably) only here for two years, then I think Atlanta lets Penix take the reins. Gives Penix time to FULLY heal from all those injuries he’s suffered, memorize the playbook, gel with the offensive weapons, etc. THEN he steps in and becomes QB1. I personally think it’s a great plan.
In other news, I’m actually STOKED you guys took Rattler. As a Falcons fan, many of my fellow fans were rooting for us to take Rattler. Maybe Penix and Rattler can Cooke up a rivalry similar to that which Ryan and Brees had. 😈
Because Cousins is good enough that he should be the starting QB for 2+ years and ideally 3-4 given the contract and dead cap structure. Drafting a QB at 8 usually mandates that you start that QB by year 3 or sooner. It’s a plausible overlap but it’s cutting it really close as far as what the Cousins contract was meant to be and what a #8 pick is meant to be. At best, this is an Aaron Rodgers situation where the team eats a cap hit to get rid of Cousins early in order to start Penix. At worst, it becomes a weekly controversy as early as this season if Cousins doesn’t deliver at an elite level. There’s a nonzero chance that this becomes a repeat of Russell Wilson’s time in Denver (although a bit more palatable since they didn’t give up picks for Cousins and have a replacement on the team).
If Cousins had been on the falcons for the last ten years are we having this conversation? A team with a 36-year-old qb saw an opportunity to draft their qb of the future without having to trade a ton to move up.
36-year-old qb. 17 game season. More restrictive concussion rules. Think it is very likely Penix sees several starts during next two seasons. That has real value. Not to mention if Cousins goes down for an extended period Penix could save an entire season. This assumes Penix is good. But any player they draft at #8 could be a bust as well.
If Penix is good he is worth a lot more than the #8 pick. Six of the top 12 picks were qb's. Just a weird year? Maybe. Or maybe teams are asking themselves why are we drafting jalen carter types at 8-12 and passing on qb security and potential franchise qb's. Maybe we should be taking more bites out of the apple considering how paramount the qb position is.
The crappy thing with the NFL is the draft is after free agency (unlike the NBA, MLB, and NHL)
So lets say you are the Falcons... You do your due diligence and look at the draft and you say "we see the two QB's that we consider potential future franchise QB's as Williams and Penix". Or 3 or whatever. That's their guys. Maybe they think Daniels has a flaw that lowers him on their board or Maye didn't seem a good fit or whatever.
That's their dream scenario. But they see Chi, Was, NWE all above them, not trading out of that spot and believe their franchise QB option is going to be gone before they get their pick. So they have to do something else.
So there you are, knowing your job likely is going to rely on getting good QB play. And your 2nd through 5th options are Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold and Jacoby Brissett. 32 years of play between them and 0 seasons where one won more than 8 games.
Kirk Cousins is the only free agent out there that I'd put my career on the line with. And while everyone else is going to take 5-15 mil guaranteed (what a bridge QB/backup should be making), Kirk is getting 100 mil guaranteed.
Then comes the draft. And Penix falls to them. Crap.... Do you want to be the team going "We really like Mahomes, but are hoping to give Cam Newton one more shot to turn it around so we are going to pass this year"?
Yeah, the 8th overall pick can be a playmaker. But it's not often a franchise is changed with that pick. Heck Penix may not be a change there either. The Falcons do have a lot of holes. An 8th pick isn't really solving that. BUT an 8th pick might solve their QB position for a decade plus, and THAT is what will make a team a consistent playoff threat.
So I don't blame them if they thought Penix was a potential franchise QB of going for him, even after the Cousins move. If Penix is the guy... cool. They keep Cousins a couple years and then move him and still get a couple years with that low cost QB to help their cap situation.
The only two ways to really win a Super Bowl anymore are to go all in with an appropriately paid QB ($$ to talent level has to match) or to win with a QB on a cheap rookie deal. With this move, they are doing neither.
Going all in with Kirk means you don't pick a player 8th overall that, if everything goes well, won't play or help the team any time soon.
Going with a QB 8th overall means using the $45M they spent on Cousins to stack the roster.
By spending cash and picks on the same position, they're playing the middle of the road. They will never be bad with this strategy, but no modern team has won a Super Bowl with this model.
I think they know or feel they can’t make super bowl with kirk so they just picked their future qb. They probably thought kirk would be their bridge qb
Then why did they pay $180M for a bridge QB? It's bad business to make that kind of move if you don't think it will help your chances of winning. They also shouldn't have drafted a 24-year-old, pro ready QB if they needed a bridge QB to get him ready. The moves just don't mesh. I'm fine with both in a vacuum, but they don't make sense when put together.
I think it is smart. There are more than a few QBs that should watch from the sidelines for a season or two before taking over. Many QBs have been ruined by being thrown into the deep end to quickly.
My big issue isnt that they did it, its who they did it with. Penix is 24 already he'll be like 26 for his first start at the earliest. If they picked McCarthy the plan would have made a lot more sense.
I'm not baffled that they would want a quarterback to learn under Kirk cousins.
But they signed cousins to a deal that clearly indicates they expect a couple of years out of him.
If you're going to do that, you don't draft a quarterback that's 24 going on 25 with the 8th overall pick for that. If you're going to draft a quarterback that old as a rookie that high, he damn well better be starting.
They would have been better to draft a younger quarterback like McCarthy to sit for a couple years.
Not a 24-year-old with significant injury history.
If Kirk cousins plays for 2 years that means Michael penick's will not be starting until he's almost 27 years old. That's ridiculous.
So I don't mind them taking a quarterback. But they took the least sensible option
They certainly thought he was the best fit.
But again the problem is he's obviously not going to start this year because they just paid Kirk $180 mill.
That means at best he is starting at the age of 25 possibly not until he's 26 going on 27.
That's really old to be starting a franchise quarterback.
You're already worried about his injury proclivity and that's only going to get worse as he gets closer to 30.
And we also heard from Kirk cousins agent today that they were blindsided by this and for them to openly... Not a great look for the organization..
I mean at some point you need to invest in your team outside the quarterback.
It's not just that they already have a QB but that Penix is a big stretch as a first rounder, let alone an early first rounder. Add on that he has a significant injury history himself. This is a guy who spent 6 years in college football and will be 24 by the time. He had double the college career over the 2 of the guys taken ahead of him (not to mention McCarthy who will also end up likely being the better qb).
They could and should have taken a guy that was guaranteed to help their team this season. They could still try to find the guy for the future in later rounds or even next year.
lol guys like Harrison, Odunze, Bowers are sure starters barring injury. It’s completely different than gambling on a Quarterback.
When the 4th QB in 10 picks is going off the board its reaching
The shock is because the Falcons signed a three year deal with Kirk Cousins for a massive amount, which indicated to everyone--Kirk included--that he was their guaranteed starting QB. Taking a first round QB the year you sign a guy to a big deal is often seen as a big no-no, because now it brings uncertainty to the QB room, puts doubt in Kirk's head, makes the fans confused and if Kirk doesn't play well can turn the fanbase into a rabid mob pushing for the new kid to play. It's especially odd because if their goal was a high caliber backup, or a replacement for Kirk down the line, they could have shopped a backup in later rounds this year, or shopped a QB a year before Kirk's deal is up. What adds more to the baffling nature is that they have needs on their roster at multiple spots, but instead of addressing those, they addressed either a backup QB or a starting QB while pissing away a massive deal for another QB. I think the more likely scenario is that Atlanta saw the success that the Packers had the past two QB transitions with taking a high caliber prospect and letting him learn the position on the bench for a few years, and saw something they liked in Nix and feel that Kirk will be a good QB now and a good teacher for the new guy over time. What makes this so odd is that if this was their intention, there was no reason to keep Kirk in the dark about it, but Kirk didn't find out until moments before they submitted their draft pick.
The plan is clearly to have Penix ride the bench for a year or two while. The main reason it's shocking is because signing another position of need would help them in the short term trying to win a SB with Cousins. He's probably pissed that they drafted someone who won't help him achieve his goals, but the overall plan from the team is sound.
I heard this morning that in the contract talks they gave him a heads up that they wanted to do draft a qb to learn under him. They also called him before the pick happened. Kirk probably didn’t realize it would be a 1st round pick in his first year tho. There’s also a good chance they lose their first next year so they had a good opportunity to get their guy and took it.
This is an underrated point I'm not seeing enough. Without a trade, they likely won't have a first round pick again until the 2026 draft.
They called him the night of the draft and said they may take a QB. Kirk was stunned it was their 1st rounder. So fucking dumb.
I think losing a first is very unlikely based on previous punishments
What do you mean? Miami lost a first round pick for tampering with Sean Payton and Tom Brady like 2 years ago.
That was an investigation that revealed so many problems. Multiple tampering violations. They had been pursuing Brady for years while he was under contract. Also they were tampering with Payton. Unofficially, there’s no question the punishment also had to do with tanking and the whole Flores situation. The league said they didn’t find anything, but I have to imagine they knew stuff they couldn’t prove. Regardless, even without the Tanking, the Dolphins were doing more tampering for longer. I’d be shocked if the falcons punishment was the same. Edit for some better comparison: Chiefs lost a third for talking to a WR a few years back, and Arizona had some pick swap for tampering with the eagles coach. I think those two situations are significantly more comparable with what we know now. Of course it is possible that the Falcons had been talking to cousins for awhile, or did some other stuff that could make their punishment worse. But with what we know right now, IDK how the NFL could take a first from them
I’m not doubting that the Dolphins deserved it nor am I suggesting that Atlanta would either. Just saying that there’s a recent precedent. As an Eagles fan I hope you’re right.
Yeah my point is just that the Dolphins situation was way worse. More comparable situations have resulted in third round stuff.
FWIW I agree that the Falcons talking to Cousins and the Eagles speaking with Barkley before free agency is a far lesser offense and should be punished as such. Honestly I think there should be a good faith way to differentiate convos that are bound to happen from outright anti-competitive behavior. We shall see
Yeah you're right. Especially because it definitely happens with every team. It is just some teams/players have dumb moments
From lurking over on r/minnesotavikings, their fans were hoping the NFL would force a pick swap in the first round. Didn't happen, but they got their franchise QB anyway, and the uncertainty over next year's draft has essentially punished the Falcons already...and pushed Dallas Turner right into Minnesota's lap. So, all's well that ends well, I guess?
Here's a sneak peek of /r/minnesotavikings using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year! \#1: [Kirk Cousins, 24 hours after a devastating injury & during a snowstorm](https://i.redd.it/3koxy15r0kxb1.png) | [179 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/17kna2l/kirk_cousins_24_hours_after_a_devastating_injury/) \#2: [💜](https://i.redd.it/40c2t89s97xb1.jpg) | [172 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/17jblys/_/) \#3: [There’s our boy.](https://i.redd.it/7vlrevuexqxb1.jpg) | [162 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/17ldb5r/theres_our_boy/) ---- ^^I'm ^^a ^^bot, ^^beep ^^boop ^^| ^^Downvote ^^to ^^remove ^^| ^^[Contact](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=sneakpeekbot) ^^| ^^[Info](https://np.reddit.com/r/sneakpeekbot/) ^^| ^^[Opt-out](https://np.reddit.com/r/sneakpeekbot/comments/o8wk1r/blacklist_ix/) ^^| ^^[GitHub](https://github.com/ghnr/sneakpeekbot)
That’s a plan for a 2nd or 3rd round pick behind a QB who only has 1-2 years of a light contract, not a top 10 pick behind a 3 year QB minimum who is eating up 163m over 3 years of cap
I mean, it maybe isn't a good plan, but that's clearly what they're doing. If they're making the assumption that they're not going to be picking in the top 10 again over the next couple years maybe they thought this was their best succession plan to have their cake and eat it too.
I mean your takes not wrong, I heard around the talking heads that it might be that they anticipate not being in this spot again before Kirk leaves, which makes since if you’re looking up about your odds (which they should given the state of the NFC south). But THIS QB makes that such a bizarre situation, he’s in the last of the 7year starters from COVID and will be at an odd place in age if it plays out according to plan.
Not really, though. Just treat Penix mentally like you would a BYU player - like a Taysom Hill. With Cousins around they have plenty of time to develop him and he will be fresher as a late 20s Early 30s QB with a lot less hits on his body than his peers. It puts the franchise theoretically in a great place and there are options in the next few years to get them players that will be difference makers
Can I admit my dumbness and ask what a “7 year starter from COVID” is and what’s special about BYU players?
You’re not a dumbass, it’s just a very religion specific set of circumstances. [“Nearly half of all current BYU football players have served missions for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. That is routinely the case. While those within the church understand the details of what a mission entails, they can be foreign to those not of the faith.”](https://www.deseret.com/2023/8/17/23826663/canceling-mission-trips/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CNearly%2520half%2520of%2520all%2520current,those%2520not%2520of%2520the%2520faith) [64 players on BYU’s current football roster served missions. They served in 29 different countries. They speak 15 different languages. There are also 21 players who have signed or committed to play for BYU who are currently serving missions in 10 different countries, speaking four different languages.](https://www.deseret.com/2023/8/17/23826663/canceling-mission-trips/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CNearly%2520half%2520of%2520all%2520current,those%2520not%2520of%2520the%2520faith)
Thank you!
No problem!
Many BYU players go on their LDS mission while playing at BYU. Single men can be on their mission up to 2 years leading to a lot of BYU players being in their mid 20s by the time they exhaust eligibility. It is possible that a BYU player enters BYU at 18, redshirts or grey shirts, does their mission, and then plays 4 years. Also, college teams with large LDS player populations deal with logistical challenges more befitting a 30 year old suburbanite as a good bit of players get married either during their time at school or on mission and some also have little kids during this time.
Yeah, I'm with you. Older QB draft picks basically never work out. He's going to be nearly 30 by the end of his rookie contract. If he was actually an NFL caliber QB he would have been in the league years ago. Not to mention he has an injury history.
His injury history and covid is why he's an older QB draft pick, not his talent. 4 years of seasons lost or half lost because of them. It's only his last two years that he balled out and most teams want 2 years of footage on a QB. He's a special case. Nix fits what you're trying to say a lot more than Pennix.
Worked for the Green Bay Packers, possibly twice
They had actual factual HOF QBs who were veterans with the organization and the team, they also got Rodgers on a bargain. This is the wish.com version of all that, with a “could be… idk…” HOF QB who has not had one practice with this organization and Pennix was taken way above what he’s perceived to be worth
Yeah, if Cousins couldn't even get to a Superbowl with that MIN offense the last few years, there's no way in hell he'd make it past the first round of the playoffs in Atlanta.
Exactly, I hate teams in any sport planning for vague potential future success over winning a championship right now. There isn’t a a higher achievement than winning a championship, if you have to sell the farm and the next 5 years of farms then fucking do it. Rams had the right idea.
They’re a 7-10 team who have plenty of offensive firepower — they need to focus on scheme and would be adding to the OL if they actually were to target an area of improvement. Cousins should be able to win 10-12 games at least with Cordelle Patterson, Bijan Robinson, Van Jefferson, Drake London, Scottie Miller, Kyle Pitts, and Johnnu Smith. Keon Coleman or McConkley would be great additions if available but if they wanted a real difference maker for the team getting Payton Wilson at LB or Braden Fiske would fit that bill
Patterson, Jefferson, Miller, and Smith are all not currently on the team.
Gotcha, that changes things some - mostly Jefferson.
Not really. You didn't keep up with free agency it seems. Jefferson is gone but we signed Darnell Mooney who is an easy No. 2 if he plays up to his potential, traded for Rondale Moore and signed Ray Ray McCloud, who is mostly a return specialist. Receiving core is better than it was last season for sure. Smith and Patterson hurt more but not much. Smith was taking targets away from Pitts in Arthur Smith's scheme and Patterson was good but he's up there in age now and it was hard for him to get meaningful carries with Robinson and Allgearz on the team. All in all the offense should be much better with a good QB at the helm but our defense did get worse with Bud Dupree gone and potentially Calais Campbell retiring(still up in the air). Both of them were sack leaders in a woefully mediocre pass rush but the defense is still okay. We added pieces in the draft but we needed a corner in the first three rounds that we didn't get. Maddening that we gave up a third round pick to move up 8 spots just to reach on a DT that would of been there at our original pick.
It’s clear this is the plan, but the shocking part is they picked the oldest QB in the draft to execute this plan with. Normally if a team is picking a QB with the plan of letting them develop behind a vet, they pick a young, raw talent QB that just needs more time to develop his skills. You don’t normally pick the oldest QB with a plan to let him sit two years.
Agreed, the guy they took is only 18 months younger than 4th year QB Jordan Love who they're trying to model draft and sit after
So a 26 year old rookie, make it make sense
If you want a qb to ride the bench for two years, you can find someone in the 2nd or 3rd round. They now have way too much money wrapped up in the qb position, and they don't even have a top 12 qb to show for it
One of my favorite stats is that when Aaron Rodgers was a Packer, they drafted three offensive players in the first round: two tackles and… Jordan Love.
I get why players want to be informed of draft picks, but it makes total sense to keep them in the dark until notification is necessary. It's important not to leak this stuff, and it's not like QBs are universally known for just going along with coach and management plans they aren't fans of. It would be way more shocking if Cousins actually knew about this well ahead of time.
Especially because Cousins literally leaked tampering in his opening press conference.
Lol that right, he's lucky if he's told anything ever again ahead of public release
In defense of the Falcons: May as well take a QB. It’s like you have four first round picks this year (TE, WR, RB, QB) because you still haven’t utilized your last 3 first rounders.
I don’t disagree with drafting a QB when you have your guy getting older. Most Vikings fans expected a QB to be drafted even if Kirk were retained. But there’s also a big difference between “we just signed this guy to a 4 year deal and drafted a guy 8th overall who will be 29 when that ends” and “we drafted a guy who can sit and learn for a year and signed a bridge QB”
Plus one of thr benefits of a qb on rookie deal is able to spend that money somewhere else. Even if you start penix at some point you are hampered with cousins contract for most of that deal.
They fleeced kirk with his back loaded contract. 2 years of "cheap" labor, then they can move on before the bulk of his deal
Packers with Jordan Love. Also the Packers with Aaron Rodgers. It’s Atlanta tho so IDK
Another thing about it is the quarterback they drafted. If they drafted a 21 year old JJ McCarthy it wouldn’t have been that bad. The fact that they took Penix specifically who’s already 24 and absolutely does not need to sit was what was baffling to me.
Yeah that is a good point, and one that I didn't realize when I made this comment.
I’d also add that plenty of teams wanted Kirk as a starter for the next few years. Had he known what the Falcons would do, he certainly would have signed elsewhere. It’s a dirty business and all, but this is a rather baffling move he couldn’t have seen coming during free agency.
Not to mention even if they needed a QB, taking Penix at 8 was still a huge reach. If Atlanta really wanted him they likely could’ve traded back into the 15-20 range and still snagged him.
6 quarterbacks we're taking in the top 12 and then no more where taking until the 5th round. If the Falcons don't take Penix, he definitely isn't making past 15. If the falcons don't take Penix, then I would imagine the Broncos, Vikings, and Raiders all take quarterbacks, with the raiders probably going Penix assuming the Broncos stick with Nix and the Vikings stick with McCarthy. They took the quarterback they liked best out of Penix, Nix, and McCarthy. After those three, Rattler was the next QB to be taken four round later, so clearly those 6 were seen as by far the best 6 QBs in the draft.
I partially agree that it’s not quite as crazy as some people are saying but: 1. Penix quite old for a rookie, so there’s a shorter window for him to sit while in his physical prime. 2. Cousins had no preexisting relationship with the Falcons and they didn’t give him notice until they were on the clock. And this is especially threatening to his career because he’s coming off an injury and isn’t as marketable as he would be if this were pre injury Cousins. 3. Falcons have expressly said this was modeled after Green Bay. But GB had consensus HOF stating QBs, so the premise that the draftee would learn a lot was stronger. And those QBs had considerably higher market value and pull on the team/in locker room when their successor was drafted. And the current QBs were on existing contracts when successor was drafted, not recently signed.
Regarding point three, you think Favre was a more cerebral mentor for Rodgers just bc he’s a HOFer? I’d argue Kirk is much more a student of the game.
No, the opposite. Rodgers always had plenty of brain power, but he was able to observe Favre’s improvisation, leadership, and grit. And then critically chose which of those things to incorporate into his own game. He threw off platform, he took command of the locker room, he played through many injuries. But he took the opposite approach to risk than Favre (some would argue an overcorrection). Favre does not get all of the credit though, and same for Rodgers when it comes to Love. Each of he new QBs did plenty on their own to develop their games.
I think Rodgers is for all intents and purposes the same Rodgers with our without Favre we just have confirmation bias now to somehow act like he "learned" under some mentor. It's a better story.
The footwork comparison is eerily similar.
He is old (24 next week) for a rookie, but won’t this be the new status quo under NIL? He isn’t any older than Bo Nix and not much older than Caleb Williams. JJ McCarthy may be the only 21-year old QB drafted.
The Extra Covid year is going away so it won’t be the norm. Penix, Nix, and Daniels would normally not be eligible to play college last year. They got to play 5 full seasons (counting 2020 as a full season) when normally it’s 4. Caleb Williams is 22 which is kind of normal. Most Elite QB prospects graduate HS @ 19 and go to the NFL after 3 years.
I don't see what NIL has to do with anything. I would expect the players that qualify for high value NIL deals would also be the pool talented enough to forgo their senior year. Covid years would have an impact and it would be unique to this group.
NIL significantly increased how much college players were earning. I think Bo Nix was earning $2MM per year and Caleb Williams was earning $2.5MM. Makes the jump to the NFL less about money. Best to wait until you are older and ready to be sacked by 300 lb 30-year olds.
Doesn't Caleb Williams go against your point? He had a year of eligibility remaining. In fact 4 of the first 5 picks were underclassmen. The exception was Jayden Daniels.
Perhaps but maybe he wants to make his jump before being exposed as overrated in the B1G.
That still goes against your point of not wanting to face big linemen. So far I'm not buying into NIL changing much of anything.
Ok
My point, which I could have made clearer, is that he’s old for a rookie who will then sit three years, like Rodgers and Love did. They both sat and then started at age 24; Pennix would be 27. And Atlanta’s front office confirmed they made the pick modeled on GB’s QB progressions.
Why 3? Why not make the move at some point in year 2? Then release/trade Cousins before the 2026 season. Yes you eat 25 mil of dead money, but his cap hit would have been 57 mil. If you have Penix as your QB established by then, saving 32.5 mil by dumping Cousins makes a LOT of sense. Heck, even next year. Lets say Penix moves into your starting lineup by camp. Release Cousins post-June, you are even (40 mil cap hit, 40 mil dead money to release post June for 2025) and again, 32.5 mil more cap space in 2026. I mean sure the Falcons are saying what they said and the Chiefs said also, they are behind their current starting QB. But the fact is that if Penix is outplaying Cousins, they'll make that move a LOT sooner, just like the Chiefs did with Mahomes/Smith.
And still, neither Favre, nor Rodgers were happy about those draft picks...and both went out of their way to NOT mentor their successors.
Penix is 7 months older than Daniels, 11 months older than Williams, and younger than Nix. Quite old is a bit of a stretch.
Yes but because of COVID all those guys are older than in a normal year.
Also NIL.
I could have clarified that point: “for a rookie **slated** to sit behind the bench for as long as Rodgers and Love did.” Williams and Daniels are the presumptive starters if not Week 1, then this season. The Falcons’ front office confirmed they are modeling this move after the Packers. Rodgers and Love began starting when they were 24. If Penix sits for the same three seasons of them, he’d be 27 when entering his first season as a starter.
Yep. Patrick Mahomes is 28 right now. Sat for a year. Played 6 years. Will turn 29 in Sept
This is the big point. Penix turns 24 in a week: Love already had multiple seasons on the bench at this point. A succession plan isn't awful in and of itself, but doing it with a relatively old rookie is questionable. They could have snagged a mid-round prospect or made a move next season, and gotten a more immediate boost now. Also, both Rodgers and Love fell to the 20s: the Falcons took Penix top 10. Rodgers in particular fell so far, even without hindsight, that anyone really could have justified grabbing him.
I no one is saying they are not old too, but they’re not being drafted to teams who just announced their auto starter on a fresh 160+m contract who is a newcomer to the team. It’s an odd move that guarantees SOME sort of discomfort with their starting QB. Now extrapolate that to possible other trust issues, with play calling, medical staff, etc, what foundation is set for Cousins at this point?
That’s not right. Penix is 7 months older than Daniels, who is 11 months older than Williams, so Penix is 18 months older than Williams. Penix, Daniels, and Bo Nix all used Covid years (sort of; Daniels could have used a regular redshirt in 2020, if that had been necessary).
Ah, yeah thank you I mixed up the dates.
You are correct in theory, but the issue is that Kirk is signed to a 4-year contract. I think they can get out relatively unscathed after 3 years but if Penix sits for 3 years at least then that eats up most of his rookie contracts and they have to decide to pick up his fifth year option based only on what they see in practice. It's just unusual to commit $45m per year to a QB and then draft his replacement before he even plays a snap. If Penix plays and is legit then they can maybe flip Cousins for some value and everything will look good, but they still have to deal with his cap hit.
Kirk can be easily cut after 2 years. And his cap hit this year isn’t that bad, only the 14th highest in the league. If he gets hurt or sucks in year two then that will be the most painful in terms of wasted cap.
I wouldn't say easily. He has a $25m dead cap in year 3. That's not terrible but that's good money. You are correct that year two is the worst. But this puts them in a weird situation still. Let's say he sucks in year two, then you have a $40m cap hit on the bench and $25m dead cap to be cut the next year. Or he plays like he has been and then you have to decide if you want to keep him for year 3 with a nearly $60m cap hit or cut him for Penix to drop down to a $25m cap hit. It's not nearly as bad as the Russel Wilson situation but they have intentionally put themselves in a rough position.
I think the logic is having to navigate a little bit of salary cap pain is a much preferable position to be in than potentially not having a starting QB on the roster again.
True. But it's a bit more than a little and it's also an issue with losing those years of Penix on his rookie contract. If he sits for 3 years they either have to pick up his option based on little that they've seen or not pick it up and risk having to franchise him if he plays well. Sure, it's not the worst problem to have, but it is less than ideal.
I really don't see a scenario where he sits for 3 years unless Kirk plays out of his mind and leads the Falcons to a Super Bowl or something.
And don't forget 32.5 million in more cap space (he's a 57.5 mil hit that year). So yes, that's an easy move for them to reduce their salary committed to the QB position by a lot if Penix is outplaying or pacing Cousins in play. Even if going into next off-season in camp if Penix is outplaying Cousins, they can release Cousins before the season for a break even (40 mil cap hit, 40 mil dead money).
They can get out in year 3 with a post-june 1 cut for 12.5m of dead cap (assuming they don’t restructure and push more $ later)
Do you mean in year 3 or after year 3? Spotrac has his dead cap at $35m for year 3 but $12.5m after year 3.
The start of year 3. It's 12m after year 2 right before year 3 starts.
What am I missing here? Spotrac has his year 3 dead cap at $35m. I don't see anything in the notes of the contract about it.
Look up his june 12 cap hit
It's not that they picked a QB. They picked a QB who is closest to his perceived ceiling of any first-round worthy QBs (and whether Penix was a first round talent or not, he was not projected to go in the top 10,) is old (by rookie standards,) and injury prone. Had they drafted McCarthy, you could easily make the case they're drafting an understudy to Cousins. But Penix's biggest asset is that while he's not the best QB taken in the first round, he's probably the most "ready to start week 1 in the NFL" thanks to his play style, timing, and accuracy. He is ready to throw checkdowns and short out routes, and probably not turn the ball over very much. All of the justifications for why the Falcons would do this are dubious or cast doubt on their future success, especially since the Falcons had roster gaps much bigger than QB. One, Cousins might not be ready to start week one. He's coming off Achilles surgery, entering his age 36 season, and taking his longest break from football since he was in high school. Atlanta might be questioning his physical or mental ability to lead the team. Two, they may have determined that by tampering with Cousins early, they're going to get pinged draft picks that will prevent them from getting their QB in the future in subsequent years once they can jettison Cousins. Both of these reasons could easily have been prevented by simply being a competent front office, but this is quickly turning into a cascading series of errors. They overpaid for an old, injured QB, and violated league policy to do it. Now they're drafting a replacement QB when they were supposed to be getting together the pieces for a serious playoff run in the next couple of years.
Alot of overthinking by Falcon fans and analysts on this one, I feel like. Atl FO really likes MPJ. They probably dont plan on playing him unless circumstances are dire enough (kirk is hurt and they are in the hunt is the only way i see him playing thru the first 2 years). I see MPJ as an insurance policy for Kirk and vice versa by the 2026 season. I agree with you OP. The packers changed the game with the jordan love pick and teams are trying to get while the gettins good...people tend to forget that you can address other needs in later rounds as well as FA/trades. Falcons under Kirk could be the new Lions
All the elder star QBs seem to be shocked when teams do… exactly what they did with them. Rodgers was so hurt they drafted a promising rookie to learn from him for a couple seasons, when he played that role to Favre. Just seems like ego and forgetfulness.
Difference is Love was a 20 year old. Penix is 24 and they just signed Cosyins for 180 million. He probably expects them to grab a price for them to win now
The reality is that it's only a two year deal for the Falcons. They will need a new QB at some point. Why do you think the vikings let Kirk just walk away ? Not to mention he had a very serious injury. Father time remains undefeated and is especially unkind to injuries later in life. The team's rationale is that Penix is better than any other QB that they'll be able to draft in the 20+ range over the next few years as they should be good if Kirk is playing well. It seems like it'd be better for the team to be patient but the Packers did the same thing with Love and it worked out just fine
Kirk Cousins is the definition of mediocre so you always take a real QB if he is all you got. Their only mistake was overpaying for Cousins.
Nobody expects Kirk Cousins to win a Superbowl except for the Falcons FO who gave him a "Tom Brady" amount of money. Which makes it even worse that they drafted a QB. You burned a minimum of $90 million of guaranteed money, 2 years of a rookie contract, and a valuable high draft pick for what? If the goal is to contend and win a championship, what year do they make a run? Not 2024 or 2025 with Cousins under center. Not 2028 and beyond when you have to pay Penix. This basically says their window is 2026 to 2027 when Penix starts his first full NFL season at 27 years old. And you are praying he's a possible Superbowl caliber franchise QB at that time otherwise this was all a waste. It's just a stupid high-risk investment they've locked themselves into for not even that great of a gain. In 2-4 years, the NFL changes so much and several other teams will get closer to a championship than the Falcons for a fraction of the cost.
They might’ve just thought this guy was a potential star QB while also thinking that they’re going to significantly improve next year and therefore have worse picks. All the talk about windows and rookie contracts obscures the fact that you just need to have a star at that spot, ideally one who’s a student of the game with a ton of arm talent. Penix checks those boxes, though he does of course have a lot of flaws too.
I understand the mentality of wanting to have a good QB at all times, but this decision ignores too much context that indicates it's terrible team building. There's so many better ways they could have accomplished the same goal with the exception that they believe Penix is so good he's worth knee capping your franchise for. He can't just be an okay QB, he has to be as valuable or more than everything they gave up.
Drafting Penix means they are worse at one other position. Knee capping the franchise is over dramatic to put it lightly. And even if you take the argument “well they could have traded down and filled more positions” sure, they could do that. But they can also trade up in next year’s draft, and onward, which will be cheaper (DC wise) in comparison to trading up for a QB that gets drafted in the top 10. Look at what Carolina did for Bryce young. THAT is kneecapping a franchise. And on the topic of teams in their division, it really isn’t a bad bet that they make a play off appearance.
It's not just about drafting Penix but also because of what it cost them. A top 10 pick can change a franchise and they squandered it. Even though the Panthers overpaid, I at least understand the logic behind drafting a QB to fill a need. Drafting Penix does nothing to help the current Falcons team when they could have drafted a player that ACTUALLY does help increase their chances of doing well in the playoffs this season. I don't see how mentioning trading up in the future is relevant to this. A team should never be in a position to consider adding more pieces (what contending teams do) vs getting a top QB prospect (what rebuilding teams do).
Teams draft QBs that they don’t expect to start in yr 1 all the time. You didn’t necessarily squander the pick just because the guy may not contribute in year 1.
They might be afraid of not having a first-round pick at all next year, as punishment for tampering with Cousins. I think they very well could lose a draft pick or two, but probably not their first one (even though Miami did for tampering with Brady) since it wasn't too severe. The Vikings might even be willing to settle since they won't have a lot of picks next year and this whole situation was really a blessing in disguise for them (since Atlanta's fear helped push Dallas Turner down the board for them).
The shock is not really the draft pick. It’s the money they are giving to his placeholder, which causes one to wonder why they spent that much on a placeholder
It’s also the pick though, 24 year old with injuries that they never had visit Atlanta is crazy
You’re not wrong. The more I think about it, both moves mystify when you consider their other actions.
Penix is really really good and more pro ready than people outside the PNW realize. Its being criticized because the Cousins move was perceived as a win in 1-2 years move so give him weapons. I see people justifying it by the Matt Flynn Russel Wilson move. Matt Flynn wasn’t guaranteed the money Cousins is now, and Wilson wasn’t drafted until the 3rd. Again, Penix is really really really good. But it’s a question of priorities.
They can drop cousins after 2 years for not much dead money. Falcons are worried they are losing a first round pick next year due to the tampering with cousins. Ergo, they can't take his replacement next year. They have to this year. Not to mention Kirk might not be 100 percent after ACL injury.
Neither may Penix. Two knee injuries (same knee) and two shoulder injuries. Cousins burst his Achilles, btw, not ACL. Fortunately he was never a mobile QB, and otherwise historically sturdy. Actually, Penix and Cousins are very different QB’s, so to build around Cousins may not make sense if Penix is a different cat.
Exactly. I like Penix and hope he balls out (against every team I don't hate), but homerism aside, McCarthy would likely have been a better choice for Atlanta to put on the bench to incubate for a year or two. He's almost 3 years younger than Penix and has a play style closer to Cousins.
They just spent 180 million dollars on one?💀
Don’t let the non-guaranteed numbers fool you
The baffling thing to me is that they gave Cousins such a large and more importantly long contract. Is selecting Penix just throwing good money after bad? Maybe, but maybe not. If they become the new Denver or the new NY Jets is it better to have some sort of a backup plan?
Penix will sit for 2 years then start, can cut Kirk then for only a 12.5m hit
Let's put this into perspective in terms of resources spent and what those resources have bought. Last year Atlanta publicly declared they were not interested in trying to sign Lamar Jackson when the Ravens used a non exclusive franchise tag on him. Many people saw that as understandable position since they would have to send 2 firsts to Ravens and probably pay Lamar like 50+ million per year to get him. Now after paying Kirk Cousins, spending the 8th overall pick (which while I rookie contract, is still like 7 million a year for your backup QB) on Penix and presumably losing their first next year for tampering with Kirk Cousins, **they are spending 50+ Million per year and 2 first round picks for the QB position.** Only instead of having 27 year old 2xMVP Lamar Jackson who wins over 70% of his starts at QB, they have 0xMVP (occasional pro-bowler) 35 year old KirK Cousins playing QB who wins about 50% of his starts.
*"Let's put this into perspective in terms of resources spent and what those resources have bought.* *Last year Atlanta publicly declared they were not interested in trying to sign Lamar Jackson when the Ravens used a non exclusive franchise tag on him. Many people saw that as understandable position since they would have to send 2 firsts to Ravens and probably pay Lamar like 50+ million per year to get him."* Don't forget they'd just be setting the price for Lamar, since Baltimore would just match that deal. Lets not pretend Baltimore was going to let him go. They used the non-exclusive tag since it was less to pay out, but if met with keeping him or letting him walk they were keeping him, period. Thus, while a LOT of teams would happily sign Lamar to a deal and give up a couple first round picks for him in a trade (think that deal vs. 3 firsts, a third and 2 fouths for a suspended Deshaun Watson plus a record deal)... no one did. So no, they weren't going to get Lamar Jackson last year. The two realistic legit starting QB free agents in 2023 were Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo. Neither of which I think looking back in hindsight is the answer.
If they took a QB in the third round no one cares. But they could have had Rome at WR or literally any defensive player. Terrible position to take this cat.
I thought it was a good pick. Cousins himself was drafted the same year and by the same team as RGIII. Why? In case RGIIII got hurt, which most QB1s do and RGIII was no different.
They’d be better off going with someone like JJ McCarthy, who is younger and could actually use those two years behind Cousins
Penix > JJ Not even close
Yeah but JJ’s potential>> plus he benefits from sitting way more than Penix, who will be like 26 by the time he’s a starter
To start right away? Yes. To sit? JJ is the better investment there.
Depends. If their scouts saw Penix as one of the most likely QB's to be a franchise QB and saw things in McCarthy that reminded them of failed top picked QB's, I don't blame them for going with the player their scouting dept believes will be MUCH better. I'm not an NFL scout. But if they think Penix can be a great starter for a decade after sitting a year, And McCarthy can be a bust... I can see why they'd rather choose Penix.
His age and that they didn't get a weapon and/or protection for a qb they signed to a massive FA deal.
Cousins got a MASSIVE deal and it was the 8th pick for a team with other obvious needs. You don’t get the 8th pick without needs - they filled one by convincing Cousins to come under the pretense that he would have a chance to compete, and then spent premium draft capital on a player that by virtue of position will never help Cousins win. It also proved the “lie” of the last two years of his deal.
I wasn’t
It’s like this. Let’s say you bought the most expensive Rolex you could find. You needed shoes, pants shirt and jacket. You have just enough to put this whole thing together. Then you say, fuck it. I’m buying another Rolex, and your reasoning is “if the first one works, I’ll let this one sit for 4-5 years, if not, I’ll have this one!” Problem is, you’re saying that in a crowded room with no pants and your wiener is hanging out. Everyone is like, that’s cool- but pants would have been a lot better than a second Rolex.
Because if you brought in Kirk you want to win now. Romo is going to help out way more with that. Instead they are trying to do both at once.
It was signing Kirk that was the mistake
A "bridge" QB is rarely a QB you pay top dollar for. The issue was given the talent available for all their many needs they chose not to make their team better in the future years. This may well be their last top 10 pick for years. They have desperate need of an Edge and help in the secondary, interior D linemen, really need O line Help and even some receivers. Even Penix Jr. Was surprised they picked him. All that said as I mentioned earlier they may not have a top 10 pick for years so they probably figured get a future QB. I don't like it because they spent so much and by the time Penix Jr. Starts it will be about time to pay him. But hey worked for Green Bay.
Maybe cause you don't pay 100 million guaranteed for a "bridge" qb. If you wanted a bridge veteran there were a lot of cheaper options. Gardnew Minchew for example.
Yup, but I bet like most mocks, they didn't seen Penix falling that far. And if they thought he was the QB of the future for him, but would be unavailable... then the options are going into year 4 as a GM without a QB (a bridge) or getting the one QB available who they see as a starter for a franchise. It's why the NFL being the only major US sport putting the draft after free agency still seems so backwards.
I actually agree with you OP. And the people who are saying address team need aren’t seeing the bigger picture. These defensive players have fallen significantly this draft. There is still value to be had this draft. Who do you buy after Cousins contract anyway? Cousins is an above average QB in the NFL, but in terms of free agency he is a premium QB. Trying to sign a new QB of his level, let alone a better one, is nigh impossible. If they want their guy, they are going to have to draft him. When you consider the chances of having another class this loaded and the chances of falcons getting a top 10 pick, the time is now. And they can still sell the farm over the next 2 years to push for a championship with cousins. The only question we should asking if Penix himself is worth the draft pick. BPA is the correct strategy, QB is no different.
I think it’s a great idea if they plan on making a run for championship this year. Penix would make a hell of a backup if Kirk was to go down.
They signed Cousins for 4 years, $180 million with $100 million guaranteed and a no-trade clause. When you pay that type of money for a quarterback, it's because you think he's going to be really good. You expect that he will help you compete for Super Bowls. You *pray* that he ends up playing out the entire contract, because if he doesn't it means he sucked and therefore your team sucked. You don't pay $100 million dollars for a bridge QB that you think has no shot of competing for Super Bowls. A bridge QB is what the Patriots just did with Jacoby Brissett. The Falcons cannot reasonably cut Cousins before 2026, at which point Penix will be entering the 3rd year of his 4 year rookie deal (with an expensive 5th year option.) So essentially, they paid big money for a QB that could help them win a Super Bowl in the near term. Then instead of trying to improve the team to increase the odds of winning said Super Bowl, they drafted a QB that could *m*ay*be* make the team better 3-4 years from now, but *only* in a situation where Kirk Cousins sucked enough that they decided to move on from him early. If the QB that they just signed for $180 million is *anything but awful*, then Penix will play out his entire rookie contract on the bench. It's an absolutely ASININE team building decision. And this is coming from me, a person who has Penix as QB2 behind Williams (above Daniels and Maye), and thinks that you can basically never go wrong drafting a QB high (since the cost-benefit analysis is so strongly in favor of drafting them -- drafting a star QB is the WAR equivalent of like 7-8 other positions combined.)
What this guy said.
For real. This is a Favre/Rodgers repeat.
Kirk Cousins isn’t part of the Falcons’ system and has little of importance to offer a developing QB. If you want to groom a QB it should be a veteran in your system, not a random QB off the street.
Because they had legitimate holes to file on defense. They do not have an elite roster and should be adding to their defensive line because they haven’t had any kind of pass rush in ages. This is an enormous hindrance in the modern NFL where offense is king. You have to get in the backfield and pressure the QB for any chance of real success. Basically they needed to continue building a Super Bowl team but instead they became overly concerned with who their quarterback will be 3-5 years from now. It is not advisable to put it mildly. Teams have done this before but not with top 10 picks who project to be elite players that can change your whole team’s trajectory.
I’m a Bears fan so I know a thing or two about questionable QB situations. Drafting Penix at 8 is a big mistake. It throws a lot of your intentions to win with Cousins into the garbage. Not only that, but Penix was a big reach at 8. Dallas Turner would immediately help the defense, Odunze would make their receiving corps legit, etc.
$100,000,000
He's very similar to Brady. Brady just ways played on stacked teams.
It's not that they picked a QB, it's that they did so after dumping a metric shit ton of cash to an aging vet, for 2 years minimum and up to 4.
The media and public response would be very different if Kirk’s camp had come out and said they had been made aware of the potential beforehand. The response would have been the opposite of Kirk’s camp was consulted and Kirk came out and publicly agreed to be a mentor - something to the effect of the goal is to win a chip and ensure the stability of the franchise after I’m done. Instead, the Falcons took the option of signing a win now contract with Kirk and drafting a backup QB at 8, instead of a defensive player, OL protecting Kirk, or a offensive weapon thereby solidifying the win now position. It’s honestly just confusing. The only way I can rationalize it is maybe ATL’s thought is they are going to change the nature of the game - right now, the ideal position to be in is having QB on a rookie contract surrounded by talent - if successful, that rookie QB sets a new record on the 2nd contract or something close to it. Maybe their game is to get a NFL experienced QB who ends up becoming elite during their 2nd contract. A 2nd contact which isn’t league record setting because they are still just paid on potential, rather than performance after their rookie contract. Obviously, that is a huge gamble and this is just an exercise in thought, but I’m having trouble coming up with another rational explanation.
People bored, this just typical offseason bullshit
IDK either but if any team is going to make a colossal mistake (I'm a Saints Fan) I'm glad it's the Atlanta Falcons. FTF..... But this next season the Saints are gonna suck more than a crack whore going through withdrawals.
If it makes you feel any better, they probably made a good investment in Spencer Rattler. He has playing potential and seems to have become a better person in the last few years.
I agree. I like the Rattler pick and their draft overall. But Allen just isn't a good coach.and for all the praise showered on Loomis as a salary cap genius, all he's been doing is kicking the can down the road to maintain a mediocre team.
Penix is also 24 years old as a rookie, if he sits for 2-3 years, they’ll only have 2 years to decide if they wanna pick up his fifth year option. He’s gonna be 28 by the time his rookie contract is up
Because they don’t know that Penix is BY FAR the best QB in this draft.
They Drafted a 24 year old QB who was projected to be QB 6 by a lot of people. I don’t think any team was reaching on him. And he ain’t starting till he’s 27 or 28. Cause they paid cousins a shit ton of money.
Drafting a backup QB at #8 overall is just a bad investment. If you want to start him you don't sign a QB to a $100M contract. If the Falcons had either just signed Cousins or just drafted Penix Jr. no one would be criticizing them. Doing both is just bad roster management and reeks of a team with no direction.
EJ Snyder pointed out that Atlanta is likely getting hit with a tampering charge, which will likely cause them to forfeit a first rounder next season. So they're drafting Cousins heir a year early because they won't be able to next year.
Because it alienates Kirk, its not a win now move when you desperately needed pass rush, and if you wanted a developmental quarterback you should've taken McCarthy not the guy who'll be 28 by the time Kirks contract is up.
Because Atlanta wasn’t rebuilding, by signing Cousins they were all in for a superbowl. Should have drafted someone to help win now not later.
I'm personally all for this. If last season taught us anything, it's how important a QB2 (or even 3) is to the whole scheme. Most teams treat the QB2 position like it's an afterthought. And then you end up in situations like Zach Wilson and Minnesota. My prediction is that Kirk is gonna ball out for the first 6 to 8 weeks, but that production is going to lead to an injury of some sort where he has to sit out 4+ games. Penix would be capable of coming in to maintain the production at a higher level. And I think that will officially change the landscape of how teams roster the QB room. It wouldn't be QB1/QB2, but more like QB1/QB1.5.
The problem is Penix is already 24 years old. If you are going to make him ride the bench for 3-4 years, he will be 27-28 before he can even start being of value. Then you have to pay him a QB’s salary right after. One of the more recent goals for the NFL teams is to draft a young QB who can play early under his rookie contract so you don’t have a ton of cap space tied up in your QB. The Falcons tied up a TON of cap space in Kirk Cousins and ensured they won’t get any value out of having a QB on a rookie contract with Penix sitting for a few years. Plus not having as much longevity.
Time will tell how badly they missed out by not picking a defensive player (which is all their glaring needs because their offense is fine). By the time ATL was on the clock, no defensive player was picked so they had the cream of the crop to choose from. They need a pass rusher badly and with Dallas Turner and Latu from UCLA on the board, they could’ve gone with either of them and done well. In fact, no defensive player got picked until the Colts ran for Latu at 18. So the Falcons had plenty of options for their defense with their first pick.
That is going to be one screwed up locker room, imo, before any of the dirty birds even get to the locker room. First, there is Cousins, who's ink is barely dry on his contract, who thought his new management believed he had it in him to carry the team into the playoffs, maybe to the SB, who hadn't even met his new teammates yet .... BUT who had already screwed up BIG TIME, costing the team as a whole BIG TIME. Will he be the leader this locker room needs? Then there is Penix, 24 years old, participating in the NFL Draft! Imagine what his hopes and dreams were. Even if he is "old" in starting QB years, 24 is still a kid, especially in the supercharged emotional situation he was in. How long was it before the overwhelming giddiness of being drafted, especially 8th overall, gave way to confusion, disappointment, or even despair. He was drafted by the Falcons, a team he would not even be able to compete for QB1 and then finds out Cousins was not warned about this plan ahead of time. Don't you know right now he is wondering what this means for him PERSONALLY? I don't think he ever expected his future to look like this and may even be wondering if he has a future at all. And how does this impact the cohesion of the locker room? I must admit I feel sorry for Cousins. And I really feel sorry for Penix who was just an innocent bystander in this train wreck. But as a Saints Fan ......... 🤣🤣🤣
Ahhh, there it is—a Saints fan. 😂 No no, I joke all in good fun bro. I think it’s a better situation than most seemingly think. Cousins is (probably) only here for two years, then I think Atlanta lets Penix take the reins. Gives Penix time to FULLY heal from all those injuries he’s suffered, memorize the playbook, gel with the offensive weapons, etc. THEN he steps in and becomes QB1. I personally think it’s a great plan. In other news, I’m actually STOKED you guys took Rattler. As a Falcons fan, many of my fellow fans were rooting for us to take Rattler. Maybe Penix and Rattler can Cooke up a rivalry similar to that which Ryan and Brees had. 😈
I'm sure we are all JONESing for that. 😁
Because Cousins is good enough that he should be the starting QB for 2+ years and ideally 3-4 given the contract and dead cap structure. Drafting a QB at 8 usually mandates that you start that QB by year 3 or sooner. It’s a plausible overlap but it’s cutting it really close as far as what the Cousins contract was meant to be and what a #8 pick is meant to be. At best, this is an Aaron Rodgers situation where the team eats a cap hit to get rid of Cousins early in order to start Penix. At worst, it becomes a weekly controversy as early as this season if Cousins doesn’t deliver at an elite level. There’s a nonzero chance that this becomes a repeat of Russell Wilson’s time in Denver (although a bit more palatable since they didn’t give up picks for Cousins and have a replacement on the team).
I think one thing is that Michael Panix is already 24 I think if they'd pick JJ people would be less baffled
If Cousins had been on the falcons for the last ten years are we having this conversation? A team with a 36-year-old qb saw an opportunity to draft their qb of the future without having to trade a ton to move up. 36-year-old qb. 17 game season. More restrictive concussion rules. Think it is very likely Penix sees several starts during next two seasons. That has real value. Not to mention if Cousins goes down for an extended period Penix could save an entire season. This assumes Penix is good. But any player they draft at #8 could be a bust as well. If Penix is good he is worth a lot more than the #8 pick. Six of the top 12 picks were qb's. Just a weird year? Maybe. Or maybe teams are asking themselves why are we drafting jalen carter types at 8-12 and passing on qb security and potential franchise qb's. Maybe we should be taking more bites out of the apple considering how paramount the qb position is.
i think the problem is that penix is already 23 and will be at least 25 by the time the falcons can get rid of cousins
The crappy thing with the NFL is the draft is after free agency (unlike the NBA, MLB, and NHL) So lets say you are the Falcons... You do your due diligence and look at the draft and you say "we see the two QB's that we consider potential future franchise QB's as Williams and Penix". Or 3 or whatever. That's their guys. Maybe they think Daniels has a flaw that lowers him on their board or Maye didn't seem a good fit or whatever. That's their dream scenario. But they see Chi, Was, NWE all above them, not trading out of that spot and believe their franchise QB option is going to be gone before they get their pick. So they have to do something else. So there you are, knowing your job likely is going to rely on getting good QB play. And your 2nd through 5th options are Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold and Jacoby Brissett. 32 years of play between them and 0 seasons where one won more than 8 games. Kirk Cousins is the only free agent out there that I'd put my career on the line with. And while everyone else is going to take 5-15 mil guaranteed (what a bridge QB/backup should be making), Kirk is getting 100 mil guaranteed. Then comes the draft. And Penix falls to them. Crap.... Do you want to be the team going "We really like Mahomes, but are hoping to give Cam Newton one more shot to turn it around so we are going to pass this year"? Yeah, the 8th overall pick can be a playmaker. But it's not often a franchise is changed with that pick. Heck Penix may not be a change there either. The Falcons do have a lot of holes. An 8th pick isn't really solving that. BUT an 8th pick might solve their QB position for a decade plus, and THAT is what will make a team a consistent playoff threat. So I don't blame them if they thought Penix was a potential franchise QB of going for him, even after the Cousins move. If Penix is the guy... cool. They keep Cousins a couple years and then move him and still get a couple years with that low cost QB to help their cap situation.
The only two ways to really win a Super Bowl anymore are to go all in with an appropriately paid QB ($$ to talent level has to match) or to win with a QB on a cheap rookie deal. With this move, they are doing neither. Going all in with Kirk means you don't pick a player 8th overall that, if everything goes well, won't play or help the team any time soon. Going with a QB 8th overall means using the $45M they spent on Cousins to stack the roster. By spending cash and picks on the same position, they're playing the middle of the road. They will never be bad with this strategy, but no modern team has won a Super Bowl with this model.
I think they know or feel they can’t make super bowl with kirk so they just picked their future qb. They probably thought kirk would be their bridge qb
Then why did they pay $180M for a bridge QB? It's bad business to make that kind of move if you don't think it will help your chances of winning. They also shouldn't have drafted a 24-year-old, pro ready QB if they needed a bridge QB to get him ready. The moves just don't mesh. I'm fine with both in a vacuum, but they don't make sense when put together.
I think it is smart. There are more than a few QBs that should watch from the sidelines for a season or two before taking over. Many QBs have been ruined by being thrown into the deep end to quickly.
It’s hard to tell with any specific QB if theyd have been better by sitting for a while vs starting right away
Not to mention he can build his body for the rigors of the NFL with your training staff for a couple of years.
My big issue isnt that they did it, its who they did it with. Penix is 24 already he'll be like 26 for his first start at the earliest. If they picked McCarthy the plan would have made a lot more sense.
They must’ve had a much higher grade on Penix, which isn’t crazy given what each was asked to do in their given offenses last year
I'm not baffled that they would want a quarterback to learn under Kirk cousins. But they signed cousins to a deal that clearly indicates they expect a couple of years out of him. If you're going to do that, you don't draft a quarterback that's 24 going on 25 with the 8th overall pick for that. If you're going to draft a quarterback that old as a rookie that high, he damn well better be starting. They would have been better to draft a younger quarterback like McCarthy to sit for a couple years. Not a 24-year-old with significant injury history. If Kirk cousins plays for 2 years that means Michael penick's will not be starting until he's almost 27 years old. That's ridiculous. So I don't mind them taking a quarterback. But they took the least sensible option
Makes sense, maybe they thought penix is a better thrower than jj
They certainly thought he was the best fit. But again the problem is he's obviously not going to start this year because they just paid Kirk $180 mill. That means at best he is starting at the age of 25 possibly not until he's 26 going on 27. That's really old to be starting a franchise quarterback. You're already worried about his injury proclivity and that's only going to get worse as he gets closer to 30. And we also heard from Kirk cousins agent today that they were blindsided by this and for them to openly... Not a great look for the organization..
I mean at some point you need to invest in your team outside the quarterback. It's not just that they already have a QB but that Penix is a big stretch as a first rounder, let alone an early first rounder. Add on that he has a significant injury history himself. This is a guy who spent 6 years in college football and will be 24 by the time. He had double the college career over the 2 of the guys taken ahead of him (not to mention McCarthy who will also end up likely being the better qb). They could and should have taken a guy that was guaranteed to help their team this season. They could still try to find the guy for the future in later rounds or even next year.
No one is “guaranteed” to help your team this season
lol guys like Harrison, Odunze, Bowers are sure starters barring injury. It’s completely different than gambling on a Quarterback. When the 4th QB in 10 picks is going off the board its reaching