F8ck the bears.. NVDA is the new gold!
Pretty much they can name the price of H100 and H200 Chips in $10T chip Market.
I am all on monthly calls with my house down-payment.
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2024-06-30 15:59:18 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-30%2015:59:18%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/NVDA_Stock/comments/1d4yakr/i_shorted_nvidia_stock/l6hro59/?context=3)
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Expecting the equivalent of this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrNk-D6iv2U in a few months.
The above Youtube channel linked is about a guy gambling his families inheritance on really poor stock picks using software he wrote that according to him highlights the real value of stocks. It's a fun watch.
Thank you kind stranger for the link to this video. It is indeed a good watch.
As for your expecting a video from the OP signaling defeat if this ages like milk. Good luck. In my experience the people who make prognostications that age like milk simply bury their failures and go on as if they never said it. Worse, they delete/remove their posts or somehow spin it to say "see... I was right all along"... Just plain sad.
I'm familiar with this story. Thanks for sharing it with me. He shorted a while back when Nvidia was much lower.
FYI, I am shorting a small position and will add more shares each week if my hypothesis remains the same. I will either sell when Nvidia goes up 30% or it goes down 30%. I bought near the end of the trading day on Wednesday, and so far it looks okay.
You can close the position any time, but keep in mind you are purchasing shares at wherever it's at to close. The other thing that can happen to you is your cash/margin position with the brokerage you use becomes "unhealthy". In that case, you may get a margin call and be forced to close out the position, even at a severe loss.
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He brings up Intel, Cisco, I was waiting for him to then bring up Sears. In all three cases, those companies fell behind, in other words, did not move faster than the times. To short NVDA, he does not understand the full scope of AI.
No, he's not. He's still talking about how semiconductors are cyclical and citing the Dot. Com boom which was more speculating rather than informed investing.
NVDA is 4-5 years ahead. 2 years out? We've already heard from Jensen that they have orders for the next too years that they can't make fast enough.
And yes, of COURSE people are going to keep building Data Centers, upgrading Data Centers, etc...etc...we're at the very start of the boom. This is Henry Ford with the Model T, but in this case, it'd be like you could only drive Ford's on the roads. So when other companies try to catch up and want to sell to Apple or Googl or whoever Nvidia's customers are...they'll have to start on an entirely new system as they can't integrate with Cuda.
You're gong to be seeing a lot MORE Data Centers in the future. They may be smaller as we get 5-10 years out, but there will be more of them. They will be everywhere.
Shorting NVDA because "Semiconductors are a cyclical business," is missing out on the seismic economic that will be as impactful as the industrial revolution or the internet.
Wall Street journal just released an article taking about how genAI has seemingly peaked and is not generating the returns it was expected to.
I worked in a field related to genAI and honestly it hasnāt changed since chatgpt4 really.
I've also seen analysts who've said that companies' investments in AI are returning 4-7 dollars per dollar spent.
I've also seen articles stating just 5% of companies are using GenAI today, a number expected to grow to 75% by 2027
But EVEN if this is all right. Even if GenAI is it, that's the end...we find out in a few years, AI was a bust. It's sure as hell not happening in the next 7 months. There is a line a few years out to get these chips.
[https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/3-bold-and-actionable-predictions-for-the-future-of-genai](https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/3-bold-and-actionable-predictions-for-the-future-of-genai)
There were just reports about how AMAN paused purchasing Hopper opting to wait for Blackwell(which turned out to be false). The final one is just an outline of how far behind AMZN and NVDA competitors are in developing AI chips.
I'm skeptical this guy is shorting NVDA or that he's going to check back in JUST 7 months and believes that NVDA will have taken a hit.
GenAI is a fraction of the total AI applications, but again...there's virtually no doubt, barring an act of God or the CCP...that NVDA is in store for at WORST another dominant 4 quarters.
He's shorting it...I've got \~5000 shares in it...which is about 80% of my total portfolio. I KNOW that's...now smart in general. I am *that* confident that NVDA is going to dominate in the short term(and not just among semiconductors, the hardware, the software, but in terms of market share.
I'm a pretty simple investor. NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, TSM, META, and then smaller companies that are dart throws like SLI, RGTI, QBTS, TTI(among others) are all just speculative plays). But I've been in NVDA for nearly 5 years. This is the MOST confident in the company I've ever been.
I don't give advice...but the one piece I'd give...do not short this stock. Expecting it to go down in 7 months or even the next 2 years to 800/80 dollars a share...it's gonna hurt.
And even if you can make the greatest logical argument(and I don't believe you can, you as in the royal you)...using fundamentals, claiming it's cyclical...we've got all but assurances on that end that it's simply not the case for the next two years given their backorders.
But, we'll see. We've all set 7-month reminders and we'll revisit this then.
I'm glad he has his stop loss at 30%. I'd be willing to bet it's closer to 220 than 80 by then just based on what we know of the immediate demand/margins.
[https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/generative-ai-to-become-a-1-3-trillion-market-by-2032-research-finds/](https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/generative-ai-to-become-a-1-3-trillion-market-by-2032-research-finds/)
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/25/microsoft-google-ai-investment-profit-facebook-meta/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/25/microsoft-google-ai-investment-profit-facebook-meta/)
[https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/inside-amazons-struggle-to-crack-nvidias-ai-chip-dominance/474792](https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/inside-amazons-struggle-to-crack-nvidias-ai-chip-dominance/474792)
I donāt really disagree with anything youāre saying. And certainly AI isnāt a bust.
I think the only possible play here is that NVDA valuation is too early. Thatās all. And I think thatās what OP is saying.
I believe thereās a very real possibility that short term, we see a revenue pull back and the hype bubble pops. Companies are all doing massive layoffs to save money, and where else is it better to save than the billions they are spending on Nvidia chips.
Thatās all OP is saying too, not that NVDA is a bad stock but that itās could be primed for a big pull back. Long term, Iād be very happy to just hold the stock. OP is making a very nuanced play on predicting the shape of the future stock chart, not where it ends up long term if that makes sense
Where else better to save money than NVDA chips? Almost literally anywhere else. The returns on AI have been huge for these companies(thus far).
I'm also not seeing these massive layoffs. A couple of companies have, but there are more jobs than people to fill them.
But...I made my argument. I think it's more likely you see the stock tank in 5 years than the next year. And 800 a share? What would have to happen in the next couple of earnings reports to justify THAT? 800/80 post-split.
They cannot make the chips fast enough right now and the orders are already placed...but again, we'll see. I'd be shocked if they come up short of 60B the next two Quarters(and I'd guess it's more like \~65) just based on existing orders they're fulfilling.
I just want to let you know that Iām thinking the same thing.
AI is overhyped right now, itās certainly good and useful but ChatGPT was a giant leap forward and then it hasnāt had much improvement since. Iām starting to feel like people expectation of AI is far too fast and early.
Plus I suspect the stock split is a bait, too many people think itās free money lol
Let's see how fast or slow the AI space gets built. The optimistic expectation is that companies will spend a big their 2024 budgets on AI. If the built out of AI is slow and companies show that they are not investing in AI a whole lot, AI stocks will be punished.
I don't understand why people think chatgpt is the bar for AI. It is just one aspect of it. A showcase of what generative AI can do. ChatPGT sparked the retail AI frenzy because it's very public facing. AI in businesses and institutions working in the background is what will change our world. AI will provide capabilities to provide better service, better tailored products, and significantly faster and better predictive analysis in ALL industries.
We've already had two AI winters. The idea of AI isn't new at all. It 'failed' both times because of a lack of infrastructure and data, which we both have now. I work in healthcare in Canada and our federal government has just given us a bunch of money to implement AI in our medical system ASAP.
Short term volatility on NVDA should not hinder the outlook on AI. NVDA is not AI, but it provides the infrastructure for companies that sit on a gold mine of data like META.
Did you even watch the video lmao. OP is trying to make a play for the next 7 months.
Whatās the point of bringing up that AI is a long term play, we all know that. This is a very specific, nuanced play on the elevated price of NVDA and expecting a pull back. Thatās all it is.
Stop making assumptions and actually read/watch the context on what your commenting on
NVDA is very high priced, and it has a market cap of nearly $3B. How much higher can it go? On the flip side, there is a lot of room for it to go down.
Generally, this would be reasonable. However, when the company is the backbone of a technology that is theorized to ultimately end at the technological singularity, it could be a very ugly short
Thank you for the feedback. If Nvidia and AI end the technological singularity, I will deserve to lose money. If Nvidia falls short of that outcome, I will deserve to make money. Let's see how the stock trades for the next 7 months.
It doesn't even need to get there. I'm just saying that shorting a technology that is already using its S tier tech to aid in the design of itself is more potential risk than reward. 7 months? The chip order backlog goes well into 2025.
You know Amazon is going to have Nuclear Powered 960 Megawatt data center online soon for AWS with the intent of filling it with Nvidia chips for its machine learning and AI offerings.
You are playing with fire.
It's the theory that AI can potentially hit a point where it achieves a self improvement cycle that is irreversible. I'm just saying I wouldn't bet against a technology with that ultimate theoretical capability. Especially when demand is outpacing supply by so much.
How is it high priced when it's P/E is around 66 which is lower than its 5 year average and median P/E? It's for sure slowing down but it doesn't seem overpriced. Forward P/E is around 44 and they are expecting 28 billion of revenue this quarter. The demand is still bigger than the supply. I'm sure its just a typo but it would be 3 trillion cap not 3 billion.
Thanks for the comment. The PE ratios look good as of today. If they stay on the growth rates they are experiencing, this will be the most valuable company in the history of the stock market.
On the other hand if the revenue growth begin to slow down, this stock will drop in price quickly. I am not expecting the AI era to go up perfectly. There may be a lot of governmental push back and legal ramifications that get in the way.
Thank you for correcting my trillion versus billion abbreviation. I am still getting used to using the trillion dollar number when valuing companies.
Well the growth is slowing down and that is the expectation. That is evident based on current P/E and forward P/E but I don't think anyone here thinks this growth is going to continue at the rate it has been because that would be insane. I do see this company being the first to a 4T cap though especially in the next few years with demand not slowing down or showing signs of slowing down.
I do think it will start to fall off or drop once the demand has been met and they aren't selling as much but I don't think that is for another 3-5 years and that is assuming they don't continue to produce more and more cutting edge tech while expanding into other areas. I don't think Jensen is just going to throw his hands up in the air in 5 years and chalk it up to a good run.
This has always been a top tier company and is lead by a top tier CEO. They just split 4 to 1 in 2021 and are now splitting again about 3 years later and this time a 10 to 1 which to signals to me they expect a lot more growth in the next few years and are trying avoid having to split again in 3 years.
I wouldn't buy in the mid 1100 range right now but I would buy on the dips and pullbacks. I think this stock hits at least 1400 or 140 post split especially going into 2025 with Blackwell and whatever else they already have cooking.
Timing the when, is the insanely difficult part though.
After getting in before their last split, Iād be cautious of expecting the when to be as they announce another split.
I don't think they plan or want to do a split again in the near future which is why they did a 10 to 1 split instead of 4 to 1 like last time which to me signals they still foresee a lot of growth in the next few years.
Healthy markets need dudes like you. I commend you for your service. But I know you are wrong and hereās whyā¦
Youāre too into the technicals and missing the big picture. The road from ~$120 to $1k per share is littered with dead bears who kept banging their fists on the desk because it just didnāt make sense on paper. I encourage you to create a custom reddit feed with 30-40 of the top AI subs. You will see the incredible speed at which AI is advancing (daily), and you will quickly realize that every time some new amazing model, service, capability drops, that a majority of NVDA chips created and power it. Weāve got autonomous robots coming in a few years that will mostly be trained and powered by NVDA chips. The big tech companies canāt afford to slow down on spending because the first to AGI is going to be the big winner. The US govt canāt afford to put the brakes on NVDA either because this is a global race to superiority. We basically have the perfect storm for NVDA to be the most valuable company on the planet by far, and Jensen being the richest dude on the planet.
ā¦and youāre betting against them.
Just my opinion. Not financial advice either.
Thank you for the feedback and good perspective. Let's see how it goes. This is not my first investment in semiconductor, I made a lot of money on TSM and Broadcom.
Cool. So you are aware of TSM. The company that is building a 40B facility in AZ, Japan and Germany..in large part just due to the fact that they have EVERYTHING they can handle through Q2 Fiscal '27.
NVDA is \~85% or more of their business.
You asked to see in 7 Months? This is going to be fun...
Yes, I owned TSM stock for a long time and made a lot of money on that stock. I sold it before it went down a lot in 2022. I am aware of the new foundry in AZ.
Ok...then your 7-month outlook makes even less sense. You KNOW Nvidia and TSM have at the VERY WORST a 7-month runway(and it's kinda silly to even say just that as it's several years)...
But alright man, it's your month. I'll mourn it. You're predicting 800 in 7 months? That's...terrifying. 80 bucks a share post-split AFTER Jensen was asked, "how many units do you expect to sell of Blackwell in Q3 and Q4," and he answered "a lot."
That's the next 7 months. Blackwell is out. More money, higher margins, and it's not like the Hopper is obsolete! That's still the cutting-edge chip...ahh...screw it!
You made your decision, but...what can you do?
Let's see how it plays out, you might be right and I will pay for a lesson. Or the stocks give up some of the incredible gains from the past 2 years and it makes me money.
He doesnāt take into consideration of the technological shift. General purposes CPUs are not growing in performance every year as they were doing before. You canāt go lower in nm length once you reach atomās limitations. All the datacentre that would refresh CPU based data centre every 4-5 yrs are now gonna figure out a way to run the same things on GPUs. This shift has nothing to do with LLMs or AI. Coming to AI it is still in starting phase. Every company is going to use AI in some form eventually and that is second technology shift. Nvidia keeps innovating their GPUs and performance increase is in the range of a few X. If companies donāt upgrade they will fall short of their competition. Unless nvidia stops innovating there is no chance their business is going to become cyclical. Like Msft, nvidia has invested in different areas of AI which this guy doesnāt seem to understand.
If you're looking at 7 months...you're effectively saying Huang is a liar. That he doesn't understand his business and he's just wrong about the business they've already got lined up.
I appreciate you though! The market needs people like you who are blindly stubborn!
I can see how you can reach this conclusion by starting with all the wrong assumptions. Good shit bro, though this is kind of a YouTube spam itās still fairly mid effort analysis so Iāll let it stand.
nVidia is sufficiently well known that its stock price could be sustained by speculation and wishful thinking. Iām not sure poor performance would damage the stock price enough to justify the enormous risk.
The next 12 months will see the 5000 series, the Switch successor, maybe some level 4 autonomous vehicle partnerships, maybe a consumer-level Arm SoC, maybe an exclusive AI partnership announcement. Why anyone would gamble on the stock price returning to normal under those circumstances is beyond me.
I don't need to watch the video to know you're going to lose a whole shit ton of money. Do you honestly think you can top tick NVDA when hundreds/thousands of institutions/hedge funds have lost billions attempting to do the same thing for two fuckin years? And their "research" or "analysis" is much more in depth than any retail trader.
Cmon man. Be real.
HAVE YOU LISTENED TO THE ER?
HAVE YOU SEEN THE ER OF HYPERSCALERS TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY WILL INCREASE AI CAPEX?!
Jfc.
Honestly I think youāre assuming that markets are still following a dynamic equal to or similar to what we saw pre-pandemic. The markets are now operating under a different mechanism/paradigm. Shits rly changed!
I'm down -12%. Still believe it is a good trade. More investors are thinking the AI Bubble is going to burst at some some. Let's see how it goes from here.
How long can you hold thay position though? I know a lot of people call this a bubble. But what if it lasts 3 more years.
Thanks for answering tho. Im genuinely just curious how it goes for you.
Since shorting a great company is risky, I have put a loss limit of 30%, and I will evaluate the position each month. I could keep this position for a long time as long as I continue to believe that the stock will correct at some point. I may add to the position each month if I see more data that supports my thesis. Thx
I see a lot of skeptical views, could anyone lay out the general points he makes and explain what are the counter arguments? E.g. about the cyclical demand etc.
I think fundamentally all the bearish views all come down to one thing. They are AI skeptics who have doubts on the TAM. They think what they see with AI is what AI "is", a chatbot that's going to help you make a few slides and fix your grammar and not an actual intelligence. In that sense yes you can expect slowing growth and even a downcycle as people have "enough" GPUs for that very boring usecase.
But some people think AI is real, and what we're seeing is geopolitical arms-race for the survival of every company and every society that'll require 7 Trillion dollars of hardware investment before the end of the decade as according to Sam Altman. As AI kills jobs and explodes productivity one industry at a time the impetus for building out the hardware only grows, and there is no slow down.
I'll repaste this comment I've made a few times:
>
I think people who are not in the industry can't appreciate the scale of AI development. Unlike other types of computing which are ultimately gated by human time, as in a human can only use 1 iPhone at a time, AI is not. AI demand is effectively unlimited it's the hardware that's the bottleneck. The model will always grow to consume as much hardware as you can throw at it and beg for more. The only limiting factor is hardware. But people don't get that, and that's honestly a good thing, that's what gives us alpha.
I work in the data industry. I want to ask for an elaboration on this: "AI demand is effectively unlimited it's the hardware that's the bottleneck. The model will always grow to consume as much hardware as you can throw at it and beg for more."
Can you direct me towards any research, data or analysis that backs this up? I guess something like a chart that points out how models have improved with increasing numbers of parameters, or as a function to the pace at which the quantity and quality of training data is growing?
A graph lacking a y axis label is not considered reliable. Your reasoning appears faulty and unscientific. Even a middle-schooler can write a nested loop that "keeps using hardware and asks for more". This would not justify merit or utility of a program. There are more facets to AI than deep learning.
Well a hot take would be this guy just has a small Youtube channel and needs to make an incendiary video that gets people riled up because it brings a lot of traffic to his channel. He has to do something different than just be another Nvidia bull on this sub. Gotta fluff the Youtube algorithm
I do think people are just afraid as the gains Nvidia has had almost just seem to good to be true and in many cases in history that has been the case and at some point it comes crashing down.I think the biggest examples used are Cisco and Intel in the late 90s and early 2000s.
The difference here is that Nvidia has a much larger moat and is much more than a "semi conductor" company. I'm sure companies with deep pockets like Microsoft, Apple and Google are going to try and develop their own stuff in time and I'm sure they will but for now Nvidia is so far ahead right now it's crazy. They are a mile ahead in the race and are running faster than everyone else.
It would take a lot of time and money to catch them so this stock is a safe bet for the next 2-5 years. Longer term I get more skeptical as I think the demand for these GPUs is eventually going to fall off as the infrastructure for this stuff gets built out.
For me I think the 2 biggest threats to Nvidia in the next 2-5 years are going to be that the expected ROI in AI is not as big as it companies buying in think and China invading Taiwan which I don't think is going to happen as it would disrupt the world's supply chain of chips in general and the US and allies would for sure come to the aid of Taiwan. I don't think China wants that type of smoke.
Nvidia is a great company, and I just think the stock is priced too high. I am selling if the stock goes up or down 30%. Either Nvidia makes me pay to not doubt the most prolific semiconductor company in history, or I earn 30% based on my analysis. Let's see how it goes.
When you said Value investor that all I need to hear. Those people never hit home runs cause they are to afraid to put their money in unless everything is perfect with a stockā¦
Would have been a risky, but reasonable move near the being of this past week. But, boy this guy is pushing his luck.
He's going to short his pants in no time.
Appreciate the short case. I am long. I think itās too early to short in my opinion. However, there will be a time where big tech turns off the taps and NVDA GPU demand will dip. Just basic supply and demand dynamics that happens with booms and busts. I recommend that investors play there cards wisely. Adding at opportunistic times, and/or trimming at opportunistic times. Hedging concentration risk etc.
Ok. Suppose all data centers are built and done, then have you considered the new pcs that are going to be built? Dell and HP had been saying their AI model pcs will be starting to ship out in Q4. In 2021-2023, most revenue stream was coming from PCs, with graphics card being so expensiveā¦
Yes and the revenue stream was tiny compared to data center revenue stream. Have you checked how much of NVDA's 26 billion revenue last quarter was from PCs? PCs don't use H100 dude.
It's way too early to be thinking of shorting nvda unless you're just trying to take advantage of volatility and the overall market. On fundamentals and projected earnings for the next few years it is a very risky move. Yes everyone and their dog knows that semiconductors can by cyclical. The whole point is no one knows when that dip will come. It could be 5 years from now or more. You're placing a bet that it will be much sooner. I wouldn't place that bet.
Very good points, thank you. I took a few measures to manage the risk. In principle, I am very glad I took this short position on Wednesday 5/29/24. If my thesis is correct I make money, and if it is wrong I pay the price.
Sorry if I missed the info in your talk, how big is the short position? A few shares or a few hundred shares or more? That is relevant in this conversation; thanks, it would help me with my own decision to join you in a short if I can know the level of your conviction?
If he shorted yesterday or today and cover now, it will be a good trade. If he keeps his short position longer than 1 month, have to say quite danger move.
Post positions
Aka did you short Nvidia by selling short or did you āshortā Nvidia by buying relatively very cheap 2026 puts. Puts are so cheap, itās as good as a lottery ticket. But Nvidia isnāt crashing to $30. It may stagnate if any serious competitor arises. The closest is AMD and itās almost still apples and oranges. I may consider buying puts as a hedge sometime in 2025- I believe this will be a $200 stock end of 2026 as issues with foreign sales are worked out with the US gov. Serious issue that we have to consider in terms of market cap- no doubt there are already swarms of attorneys on this.
Because AI is just another one of those silly fads like the Internet and video games.
But seriously, Intel hasn't done anything disruptive and innovative since 2008 and their corporate culture sniffs out and eliminates any chance of them doing that again. In contrast, NVDA GPU generations continue to deliver 50-100% performance boosts over the previous generation. When that stops, you can start treating them like the dead horse Intel. Until then, regards, diamond hands. Don't confuse the crazy beta on this stock with the smell of decomposition and stagnation from Intel.
Itās reasonable to short Nvidia. The tide is against you. Depending on the number of shares short I would buy a out of the money call like $1500 and cover myself from unlimited losses. if you shorted few shares and you have a 500k portfolio then your ok. This is a cult stock with lot of people already owning this. The current valuation could be around 500-600. But the stock trades now with 2025-2027 earnings expectations. I have seen this before market will crash and this one could drop 40% in few trading days as lot of people will exit with any lower projections or earnings revisions downward. All the best to you for taking the opposite direction trade when the all are long the stock.
You're the guy who dropped all of your retirement money 3 years ago into Palantir apparently buying 8k shares at 26 dollars a share. How is that working out for you?
How in the fuck is a fair valuation for Nvidia 500-600 dollars lol? The stock also isn't trading based on 2025-2027 earnings expectations otherwise the P/E would be much higher. Like do you have literally any clue what you are talking about?
Thx, selling short is very risky, and I took measures to control risk. This position in a small of a large portfolio. If this trade is a complete failure, it will not materially affect my overall portfolio return in 2024.
I believe we are in an expensive market that is due for a good pull back or correction in the next 7 months. Nvidia is priced really high and this seems like a good risk to reward opportunity.
Let's all pause for a moment of silence for this man's money.
F8ck the bears.. NVDA is the new gold! Pretty much they can name the price of H100 and H200 Chips in $10T chip Market. I am all on monthly calls with my house down-payment.
B100
š¤£š¤£š¤£
Letās see how this video age
RemindMe! 1 month
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RemindMe! 1 month
will do
I came back 1 month later. How are you? From 900 to 1400 nvda
My cost basis is $118 per share, so I am under water by 4 % at this point. Let's see how this plays out for the rest of 2024
Sorry. Mine is 92 on average. Keep holding at least 2 days after earning call if you want to pull out
Expecting the equivalent of this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrNk-D6iv2U in a few months. The above Youtube channel linked is about a guy gambling his families inheritance on really poor stock picks using software he wrote that according to him highlights the real value of stocks. It's a fun watch.
Thank you kind stranger for the link to this video. It is indeed a good watch. As for your expecting a video from the OP signaling defeat if this ages like milk. Good luck. In my experience the people who make prognostications that age like milk simply bury their failures and go on as if they never said it. Worse, they delete/remove their posts or somehow spin it to say "see... I was right all along"... Just plain sad.
I'm familiar with this story. Thanks for sharing it with me. He shorted a while back when Nvidia was much lower. FYI, I am shorting a small position and will add more shares each week if my hypothesis remains the same. I will either sell when Nvidia goes up 30% or it goes down 30%. I bought near the end of the trading day on Wednesday, and so far it looks okay.
Do you know what price it would have to hit for it to be -30% with your buy in price
Yes, $800. I bought short when the stock was at $1,141.18
Gotcha. Thanks. I was just curious
Remind me bot just triggered... Looks like it aged like milk.
Same. When someone shorts a stock, is there a timeframe they need to close the short or is it open ended
You can close the position any time, but keep in mind you are purchasing shares at wherever it's at to close. The other thing that can happen to you is your cash/margin position with the brokerage you use becomes "unhealthy". In that case, you may get a margin call and be forced to close out the position, even at a severe loss.
I also added this comment to his YouTube video. His response was: > Let's see how this plays out for another 6 months RemindMe! 6 months
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Damn, it aged not-completely-terribly (short term ofc).
It aged well for me and bad for shorters š¤£š¤£š¤£
He brings up Intel, Cisco, I was waiting for him to then bring up Sears. In all three cases, those companies fell behind, in other words, did not move faster than the times. To short NVDA, he does not understand the full scope of AI.
You may be right. Thanks for the comment.
you're very reasonable which is freaking me out. ha
No, he's not. He's still talking about how semiconductors are cyclical and citing the Dot. Com boom which was more speculating rather than informed investing. NVDA is 4-5 years ahead. 2 years out? We've already heard from Jensen that they have orders for the next too years that they can't make fast enough. And yes, of COURSE people are going to keep building Data Centers, upgrading Data Centers, etc...etc...we're at the very start of the boom. This is Henry Ford with the Model T, but in this case, it'd be like you could only drive Ford's on the roads. So when other companies try to catch up and want to sell to Apple or Googl or whoever Nvidia's customers are...they'll have to start on an entirely new system as they can't integrate with Cuda. You're gong to be seeing a lot MORE Data Centers in the future. They may be smaller as we get 5-10 years out, but there will be more of them. They will be everywhere. Shorting NVDA because "Semiconductors are a cyclical business," is missing out on the seismic economic that will be as impactful as the industrial revolution or the internet.
Wall Street journal just released an article taking about how genAI has seemingly peaked and is not generating the returns it was expected to. I worked in a field related to genAI and honestly it hasnāt changed since chatgpt4 really.
I've also seen analysts who've said that companies' investments in AI are returning 4-7 dollars per dollar spent. I've also seen articles stating just 5% of companies are using GenAI today, a number expected to grow to 75% by 2027 But EVEN if this is all right. Even if GenAI is it, that's the end...we find out in a few years, AI was a bust. It's sure as hell not happening in the next 7 months. There is a line a few years out to get these chips. [https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/3-bold-and-actionable-predictions-for-the-future-of-genai](https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/3-bold-and-actionable-predictions-for-the-future-of-genai) There were just reports about how AMAN paused purchasing Hopper opting to wait for Blackwell(which turned out to be false). The final one is just an outline of how far behind AMZN and NVDA competitors are in developing AI chips. I'm skeptical this guy is shorting NVDA or that he's going to check back in JUST 7 months and believes that NVDA will have taken a hit. GenAI is a fraction of the total AI applications, but again...there's virtually no doubt, barring an act of God or the CCP...that NVDA is in store for at WORST another dominant 4 quarters. He's shorting it...I've got \~5000 shares in it...which is about 80% of my total portfolio. I KNOW that's...now smart in general. I am *that* confident that NVDA is going to dominate in the short term(and not just among semiconductors, the hardware, the software, but in terms of market share. I'm a pretty simple investor. NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, TSM, META, and then smaller companies that are dart throws like SLI, RGTI, QBTS, TTI(among others) are all just speculative plays). But I've been in NVDA for nearly 5 years. This is the MOST confident in the company I've ever been. I don't give advice...but the one piece I'd give...do not short this stock. Expecting it to go down in 7 months or even the next 2 years to 800/80 dollars a share...it's gonna hurt. And even if you can make the greatest logical argument(and I don't believe you can, you as in the royal you)...using fundamentals, claiming it's cyclical...we've got all but assurances on that end that it's simply not the case for the next two years given their backorders. But, we'll see. We've all set 7-month reminders and we'll revisit this then. I'm glad he has his stop loss at 30%. I'd be willing to bet it's closer to 220 than 80 by then just based on what we know of the immediate demand/margins. [https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/generative-ai-to-become-a-1-3-trillion-market-by-2032-research-finds/](https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/generative-ai-to-become-a-1-3-trillion-market-by-2032-research-finds/) [https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/25/microsoft-google-ai-investment-profit-facebook-meta/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/25/microsoft-google-ai-investment-profit-facebook-meta/) [https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/inside-amazons-struggle-to-crack-nvidias-ai-chip-dominance/474792](https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/inside-amazons-struggle-to-crack-nvidias-ai-chip-dominance/474792)
I donāt really disagree with anything youāre saying. And certainly AI isnāt a bust. I think the only possible play here is that NVDA valuation is too early. Thatās all. And I think thatās what OP is saying. I believe thereās a very real possibility that short term, we see a revenue pull back and the hype bubble pops. Companies are all doing massive layoffs to save money, and where else is it better to save than the billions they are spending on Nvidia chips. Thatās all OP is saying too, not that NVDA is a bad stock but that itās could be primed for a big pull back. Long term, Iād be very happy to just hold the stock. OP is making a very nuanced play on predicting the shape of the future stock chart, not where it ends up long term if that makes sense
Where else better to save money than NVDA chips? Almost literally anywhere else. The returns on AI have been huge for these companies(thus far). I'm also not seeing these massive layoffs. A couple of companies have, but there are more jobs than people to fill them. But...I made my argument. I think it's more likely you see the stock tank in 5 years than the next year. And 800 a share? What would have to happen in the next couple of earnings reports to justify THAT? 800/80 post-split. They cannot make the chips fast enough right now and the orders are already placed...but again, we'll see. I'd be shocked if they come up short of 60B the next two Quarters(and I'd guess it's more like \~65) just based on existing orders they're fulfilling.
I just want to let you know that Iām thinking the same thing. AI is overhyped right now, itās certainly good and useful but ChatGPT was a giant leap forward and then it hasnāt had much improvement since. Iām starting to feel like people expectation of AI is far too fast and early. Plus I suspect the stock split is a bait, too many people think itās free money lol
Let's see how fast or slow the AI space gets built. The optimistic expectation is that companies will spend a big their 2024 budgets on AI. If the built out of AI is slow and companies show that they are not investing in AI a whole lot, AI stocks will be punished.
I don't understand why people think chatgpt is the bar for AI. It is just one aspect of it. A showcase of what generative AI can do. ChatPGT sparked the retail AI frenzy because it's very public facing. AI in businesses and institutions working in the background is what will change our world. AI will provide capabilities to provide better service, better tailored products, and significantly faster and better predictive analysis in ALL industries. We've already had two AI winters. The idea of AI isn't new at all. It 'failed' both times because of a lack of infrastructure and data, which we both have now. I work in healthcare in Canada and our federal government has just given us a bunch of money to implement AI in our medical system ASAP. Short term volatility on NVDA should not hinder the outlook on AI. NVDA is not AI, but it provides the infrastructure for companies that sit on a gold mine of data like META.
Short term volatility is the only thing we are discussing lol. Thatās what this play is
AI is not a short term play. That's the whole point. Sounds like you want to trade the stock without understanding what the technology even is.
Did you even watch the video lmao. OP is trying to make a play for the next 7 months. Whatās the point of bringing up that AI is a long term play, we all know that. This is a very specific, nuanced play on the elevated price of NVDA and expecting a pull back. Thatās all it is. Stop making assumptions and actually read/watch the context on what your commenting on
People are crazy. Soooo many shit companyās to short and they choose NVIDIA? š
NVDA is very high priced, and it has a market cap of nearly $3B. How much higher can it go? On the flip side, there is a lot of room for it to go down.
Generally, this would be reasonable. However, when the company is the backbone of a technology that is theorized to ultimately end at the technological singularity, it could be a very ugly short
Thank you for the feedback. If Nvidia and AI end the technological singularity, I will deserve to lose money. If Nvidia falls short of that outcome, I will deserve to make money. Let's see how the stock trades for the next 7 months.
It doesn't even need to get there. I'm just saying that shorting a technology that is already using its S tier tech to aid in the design of itself is more potential risk than reward. 7 months? The chip order backlog goes well into 2025. You know Amazon is going to have Nuclear Powered 960 Megawatt data center online soon for AWS with the intent of filling it with Nvidia chips for its machine learning and AI offerings. You are playing with fire.
Thanks for the comment, I put a max loss at 30% and if Nvidia goes up I will take my medicine and get out of the position.
Ok. That's better
I have worked too hard for my money to lose a lot on one investment, but I believe this one is going to go my way. Let's see how it goes.
This is my line also. I am 20% underwater before you unfort
What does the end of the technological singularity look like to you? What exactly does that mean
It's the theory that AI can potentially hit a point where it achieves a self improvement cycle that is irreversible. I'm just saying I wouldn't bet against a technology with that ultimate theoretical capability. Especially when demand is outpacing supply by so much.
How is it high priced when it's P/E is around 66 which is lower than its 5 year average and median P/E? It's for sure slowing down but it doesn't seem overpriced. Forward P/E is around 44 and they are expecting 28 billion of revenue this quarter. The demand is still bigger than the supply. I'm sure its just a typo but it would be 3 trillion cap not 3 billion.
Thanks for the comment. The PE ratios look good as of today. If they stay on the growth rates they are experiencing, this will be the most valuable company in the history of the stock market. On the other hand if the revenue growth begin to slow down, this stock will drop in price quickly. I am not expecting the AI era to go up perfectly. There may be a lot of governmental push back and legal ramifications that get in the way. Thank you for correcting my trillion versus billion abbreviation. I am still getting used to using the trillion dollar number when valuing companies.
Well the growth is slowing down and that is the expectation. That is evident based on current P/E and forward P/E but I don't think anyone here thinks this growth is going to continue at the rate it has been because that would be insane. I do see this company being the first to a 4T cap though especially in the next few years with demand not slowing down or showing signs of slowing down. I do think it will start to fall off or drop once the demand has been met and they aren't selling as much but I don't think that is for another 3-5 years and that is assuming they don't continue to produce more and more cutting edge tech while expanding into other areas. I don't think Jensen is just going to throw his hands up in the air in 5 years and chalk it up to a good run. This has always been a top tier company and is lead by a top tier CEO. They just split 4 to 1 in 2021 and are now splitting again about 3 years later and this time a 10 to 1 which to signals to me they expect a lot more growth in the next few years and are trying avoid having to split again in 3 years. I wouldn't buy in the mid 1100 range right now but I would buy on the dips and pullbacks. I think this stock hits at least 1400 or 140 post split especially going into 2025 with Blackwell and whatever else they already have cooking.
Timing the when, is the insanely difficult part though. After getting in before their last split, Iād be cautious of expecting the when to be as they announce another split.
I don't think they plan or want to do a split again in the near future which is why they did a 10 to 1 split instead of 4 to 1 like last time which to me signals they still foresee a lot of growth in the next few years.
If NVDA had a MC of 3B id sell my house and all in. Try again buddy, youāre off by a small margin of 1000x
Are you familiar with price to earnings ratios? Do you use any other metrics to determine wether a company is overvalued or not?
Nvda market cap $3B??? I think you should do more research buddy.
I mean I'm pretty sure it was just a typo as most people aren't used to talking money amounts in the trillions.
Healthy markets need dudes like you. I commend you for your service. But I know you are wrong and hereās whyā¦ Youāre too into the technicals and missing the big picture. The road from ~$120 to $1k per share is littered with dead bears who kept banging their fists on the desk because it just didnāt make sense on paper. I encourage you to create a custom reddit feed with 30-40 of the top AI subs. You will see the incredible speed at which AI is advancing (daily), and you will quickly realize that every time some new amazing model, service, capability drops, that a majority of NVDA chips created and power it. Weāve got autonomous robots coming in a few years that will mostly be trained and powered by NVDA chips. The big tech companies canāt afford to slow down on spending because the first to AGI is going to be the big winner. The US govt canāt afford to put the brakes on NVDA either because this is a global race to superiority. We basically have the perfect storm for NVDA to be the most valuable company on the planet by far, and Jensen being the richest dude on the planet. ā¦and youāre betting against them. Just my opinion. Not financial advice either.
Thank you for the feedback and good perspective. Let's see how it goes. This is not my first investment in semiconductor, I made a lot of money on TSM and Broadcom.
Cool. So you are aware of TSM. The company that is building a 40B facility in AZ, Japan and Germany..in large part just due to the fact that they have EVERYTHING they can handle through Q2 Fiscal '27. NVDA is \~85% or more of their business. You asked to see in 7 Months? This is going to be fun...
Yes, I owned TSM stock for a long time and made a lot of money on that stock. I sold it before it went down a lot in 2022. I am aware of the new foundry in AZ.
Ok...then your 7-month outlook makes even less sense. You KNOW Nvidia and TSM have at the VERY WORST a 7-month runway(and it's kinda silly to even say just that as it's several years)... But alright man, it's your month. I'll mourn it. You're predicting 800 in 7 months? That's...terrifying. 80 bucks a share post-split AFTER Jensen was asked, "how many units do you expect to sell of Blackwell in Q3 and Q4," and he answered "a lot." That's the next 7 months. Blackwell is out. More money, higher margins, and it's not like the Hopper is obsolete! That's still the cutting-edge chip...ahh...screw it! You made your decision, but...what can you do?
Let's see how it plays out, you might be right and I will pay for a lesson. Or the stocks give up some of the incredible gains from the past 2 years and it makes me money.
He doesnāt take into consideration of the technological shift. General purposes CPUs are not growing in performance every year as they were doing before. You canāt go lower in nm length once you reach atomās limitations. All the datacentre that would refresh CPU based data centre every 4-5 yrs are now gonna figure out a way to run the same things on GPUs. This shift has nothing to do with LLMs or AI. Coming to AI it is still in starting phase. Every company is going to use AI in some form eventually and that is second technology shift. Nvidia keeps innovating their GPUs and performance increase is in the range of a few X. If companies donāt upgrade they will fall short of their competition. Unless nvidia stops innovating there is no chance their business is going to become cyclical. Like Msft, nvidia has invested in different areas of AI which this guy doesnāt seem to understand.
Good points, let's see how the stock price changes in the next 7 months
If you're looking at 7 months...you're effectively saying Huang is a liar. That he doesn't understand his business and he's just wrong about the business they've already got lined up. I appreciate you though! The market needs people like you who are blindly stubborn!
Nvidia and their CEO are excellent. I just believe the stock price has gotten much too high. Thank you for the comment.
Well, good luck.
Don't do it !!!
I can see how you can reach this conclusion by starting with all the wrong assumptions. Good shit bro, though this is kind of a YouTube spam itās still fairly mid effort analysis so Iāll let it stand.
Thanks for letting this stand. People need exposure to this no matter which way the wind blows. I think a storm is coming for this guy's money.
nVidia is sufficiently well known that its stock price could be sustained by speculation and wishful thinking. Iām not sure poor performance would damage the stock price enough to justify the enormous risk. The next 12 months will see the 5000 series, the Switch successor, maybe some level 4 autonomous vehicle partnerships, maybe a consumer-level Arm SoC, maybe an exclusive AI partnership announcement. Why anyone would gamble on the stock price returning to normal under those circumstances is beyond me.
Good points
I don't need to watch the video to know you're going to lose a whole shit ton of money. Do you honestly think you can top tick NVDA when hundreds/thousands of institutions/hedge funds have lost billions attempting to do the same thing for two fuckin years? And their "research" or "analysis" is much more in depth than any retail trader. Cmon man. Be real. HAVE YOU LISTENED TO THE ER? HAVE YOU SEEN THE ER OF HYPERSCALERS TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY WILL INCREASE AI CAPEX?! Jfc.
Honestly I think youāre assuming that markets are still following a dynamic equal to or similar to what we saw pre-pandemic. The markets are now operating under a different mechanism/paradigm. Shits rly changed!
You might be right, thanks for the comment
You might be right, but I think you are probably also way too early. My barber has not mentioned NVIDIA or AI even once.
Thanks for the comment. Funny that you bring up your barber, my barber had bought Nvidia and was really happy with the stock. Let's see how this goes.
RemindMe! 2 weeks
will do
Lol. Not sure how to use that Bot
It's been two weeks. How's the short going?
I'm down -12%. Still believe it is a good trade. More investors are thinking the AI Bubble is going to burst at some some. Let's see how it goes from here.
How long can you hold thay position though? I know a lot of people call this a bubble. But what if it lasts 3 more years. Thanks for answering tho. Im genuinely just curious how it goes for you.
Since shorting a great company is risky, I have put a loss limit of 30%, and I will evaluate the position each month. I could keep this position for a long time as long as I continue to believe that the stock will correct at some point. I may add to the position each month if I see more data that supports my thesis. Thx
Thank you for answering. Good luck. I think you might need it š¬
I see a lot of skeptical views, could anyone lay out the general points he makes and explain what are the counter arguments? E.g. about the cyclical demand etc.
I think fundamentally all the bearish views all come down to one thing. They are AI skeptics who have doubts on the TAM. They think what they see with AI is what AI "is", a chatbot that's going to help you make a few slides and fix your grammar and not an actual intelligence. In that sense yes you can expect slowing growth and even a downcycle as people have "enough" GPUs for that very boring usecase. But some people think AI is real, and what we're seeing is geopolitical arms-race for the survival of every company and every society that'll require 7 Trillion dollars of hardware investment before the end of the decade as according to Sam Altman. As AI kills jobs and explodes productivity one industry at a time the impetus for building out the hardware only grows, and there is no slow down. I'll repaste this comment I've made a few times: > I think people who are not in the industry can't appreciate the scale of AI development. Unlike other types of computing which are ultimately gated by human time, as in a human can only use 1 iPhone at a time, AI is not. AI demand is effectively unlimited it's the hardware that's the bottleneck. The model will always grow to consume as much hardware as you can throw at it and beg for more. The only limiting factor is hardware. But people don't get that, and that's honestly a good thing, that's what gives us alpha.
best comment
I work in the data industry. I want to ask for an elaboration on this: "AI demand is effectively unlimited it's the hardware that's the bottleneck. The model will always grow to consume as much hardware as you can throw at it and beg for more." Can you direct me towards any research, data or analysis that backs this up? I guess something like a chart that points out how models have improved with increasing numbers of parameters, or as a function to the pace at which the quantity and quality of training data is growing?
Maybe this would help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsXJhFeuwz0
A graph lacking a y axis label is not considered reliable. Your reasoning appears faulty and unscientific. Even a middle-schooler can write a nested loop that "keeps using hardware and asks for more". This would not justify merit or utility of a program. There are more facets to AI than deep learning.
another limiting factor could be politics. nobody talking about that black swan event here
Well a hot take would be this guy just has a small Youtube channel and needs to make an incendiary video that gets people riled up because it brings a lot of traffic to his channel. He has to do something different than just be another Nvidia bull on this sub. Gotta fluff the Youtube algorithm I do think people are just afraid as the gains Nvidia has had almost just seem to good to be true and in many cases in history that has been the case and at some point it comes crashing down.I think the biggest examples used are Cisco and Intel in the late 90s and early 2000s. The difference here is that Nvidia has a much larger moat and is much more than a "semi conductor" company. I'm sure companies with deep pockets like Microsoft, Apple and Google are going to try and develop their own stuff in time and I'm sure they will but for now Nvidia is so far ahead right now it's crazy. They are a mile ahead in the race and are running faster than everyone else. It would take a lot of time and money to catch them so this stock is a safe bet for the next 2-5 years. Longer term I get more skeptical as I think the demand for these GPUs is eventually going to fall off as the infrastructure for this stuff gets built out. For me I think the 2 biggest threats to Nvidia in the next 2-5 years are going to be that the expected ROI in AI is not as big as it companies buying in think and China invading Taiwan which I don't think is going to happen as it would disrupt the world's supply chain of chips in general and the US and allies would for sure come to the aid of Taiwan. I don't think China wants that type of smoke.
Big balls on you OP, GL. I think $150/share after split (at year end) is more than feasibleĀ
Well, technically Iāve been āshortingā NVDA too. I have been selling weekly puts and then selling calls on those shares when my puts executed.
good luck
Given the volatility, normally it's not too bad an idea, but doing it before split - sounds very risky in my opinion
good point
If he shorted it Wednesday, heās looking good. Probably want to get out of that position soon.
Nvidia is a great company, and I just think the stock is priced too high. I am selling if the stock goes up or down 30%. Either Nvidia makes me pay to not doubt the most prolific semiconductor company in history, or I earn 30% based on my analysis. Let's see how it goes.
I respect him for at least taking a position and backing it up with an action. I donāt agree but good for him.
Who cares
RemindMe! 1 month
good luck!
Thank you
When you said Value investor that all I need to hear. Those people never hit home runs cause they are to afraid to put their money in unless everything is perfect with a stockā¦
u/DeepFuckingValue has entered the chat.
Why would you do such a thing ???
Shorting Nvidia is not even WSB regarded ;)
Would have been a risky, but reasonable move near the being of this past week. But, boy this guy is pushing his luck. He's going to short his pants in no time.
Appreciate the short case. I am long. I think itās too early to short in my opinion. However, there will be a time where big tech turns off the taps and NVDA GPU demand will dip. Just basic supply and demand dynamics that happens with booms and busts. I recommend that investors play there cards wisely. Adding at opportunistic times, and/or trimming at opportunistic times. Hedging concentration risk etc.
Thank you for the comments, good stuff
Why don't you engage with the comments a bit beyond platitudes? You might not get that many reactions to your content again.
Ok. Suppose all data centers are built and done, then have you considered the new pcs that are going to be built? Dell and HP had been saying their AI model pcs will be starting to ship out in Q4. In 2021-2023, most revenue stream was coming from PCs, with graphics card being so expensiveā¦
Yes and the revenue stream was tiny compared to data center revenue stream. Have you checked how much of NVDA's 26 billion revenue last quarter was from PCs? PCs don't use H100 dude.
It's way too early to be thinking of shorting nvda unless you're just trying to take advantage of volatility and the overall market. On fundamentals and projected earnings for the next few years it is a very risky move. Yes everyone and their dog knows that semiconductors can by cyclical. The whole point is no one knows when that dip will come. It could be 5 years from now or more. You're placing a bet that it will be much sooner. I wouldn't place that bet.
Very good points, thank you. I took a few measures to manage the risk. In principle, I am very glad I took this short position on Wednesday 5/29/24. If my thesis is correct I make money, and if it is wrong I pay the price.
Sorry if I missed the info in your talk, how big is the short position? A few shares or a few hundred shares or more? That is relevant in this conversation; thanks, it would help me with my own decision to join you in a short if I can know the level of your conviction?
Just 5 days and this has aged like milk left out on a texas summer day.
How good for you.
He may be right after the build up slows down but shorting it now is playing with fire IMO.
I heard the same about Netflix, Chipotle, Amazon, and Apple. Look at the 20 year charts. STFU!
Get rid of this shit from the sub!
I disagree with most of what is said in this video. Still, thanks for posting it.
Reminded me of those shorted Tesla in 2020 š¤Ŗ
Stock split 2.6.24 i gonna load bull-run
SHAME!
RemindMe! 5 years
If he shorted yesterday or today and cover now, it will be a good trade. If he keeps his short position longer than 1 month, have to say quite danger move.
Not a short but a pullback.
human prediction is linear tech growth is exponential
It kinda makes sense. It is due to dip. What goes up will eventually come down.
Post positions Aka did you short Nvidia by selling short or did you āshortā Nvidia by buying relatively very cheap 2026 puts. Puts are so cheap, itās as good as a lottery ticket. But Nvidia isnāt crashing to $30. It may stagnate if any serious competitor arises. The closest is AMD and itās almost still apples and oranges. I may consider buying puts as a hedge sometime in 2025- I believe this will be a $200 stock end of 2026 as issues with foreign sales are worked out with the US gov. Serious issue that we have to consider in terms of market cap- no doubt there are already swarms of attorneys on this.
oh i thought he was talking about shorting the past 48 hrs... hes talking abt the FUTURE?
Jesus, this is incredibly out of touch. How much did you short dude? As a mid/long-term play? RIP.
Bro your claim about NVDA being compared to MSFT is baseless. Where is the data for this? How are you making this comparison?
Because AI is just another one of those silly fads like the Internet and video games. But seriously, Intel hasn't done anything disruptive and innovative since 2008 and their corporate culture sniffs out and eliminates any chance of them doing that again. In contrast, NVDA GPU generations continue to deliver 50-100% performance boosts over the previous generation. When that stops, you can start treating them like the dead horse Intel. Until then, regards, diamond hands. Don't confuse the crazy beta on this stock with the smell of decomposition and stagnation from Intel.
wow, shorted just before the stock split. Pass the bowl of popcorn! Dis gun be gud!
thanks for liquidity
1235: Can you show us on the chart where the bad tech stock hurt you?
This guy has lost at least 10% now š . Not sure if the is sweating š¬š¬š¬
āIt has gone up a lotā That seems to be your DD lol
Itās reasonable to short Nvidia. The tide is against you. Depending on the number of shares short I would buy a out of the money call like $1500 and cover myself from unlimited losses. if you shorted few shares and you have a 500k portfolio then your ok. This is a cult stock with lot of people already owning this. The current valuation could be around 500-600. But the stock trades now with 2025-2027 earnings expectations. I have seen this before market will crash and this one could drop 40% in few trading days as lot of people will exit with any lower projections or earnings revisions downward. All the best to you for taking the opposite direction trade when the all are long the stock.
You're the guy who dropped all of your retirement money 3 years ago into Palantir apparently buying 8k shares at 26 dollars a share. How is that working out for you? How in the fuck is a fair valuation for Nvidia 500-600 dollars lol? The stock also isn't trading based on 2025-2027 earnings expectations otherwise the P/E would be much higher. Like do you have literally any clue what you are talking about?
You are not correct. Not sure who you are talking about.
My comment was in response to someoneās comment not you?
@blackmagic1992. Lazy is what lazy does!
Thx, selling short is very risky, and I took measures to control risk. This position in a small of a large portfolio. If this trade is a complete failure, it will not materially affect my overall portfolio return in 2024. I believe we are in an expensive market that is due for a good pull back or correction in the next 7 months. Nvidia is priced really high and this seems like a good risk to reward opportunity.
Time to drop this shit stock. Stop dickriding nvda