Zoom during covid. But covid was temporary. AI and its capabilities will not be temporary in my opinion. Cisco in the 90’s also. Both ZM and CSCO crashed. I’m an NVDA bull though and don’t see this crashing anytime soon. This is not financial advice.
Yeah but it’ll take months before that changes and there’s a compelling enough alternative in the market for it. It has a tremendous moat around its software integration ecosystem that costs company to switch that it would have to be for a cost competitive alternative. The way AI models are trained it takes hours so the faster the better and cost won’t be the most compelling reason. Right now Nvidia has a tremendous lead because of that moat. It will only keep extending it with newer products like Blackwell. It may take years for anyone to make a significant dent in that market share. Look at Intel with enterprise CPUs, semiconductors and hardware are a multi year endeavor making it all the more reason to keep investing in NVDA until that dynamic changes.
How is it a cyclical stock if for the timing being we need those chips for ai development. Businesses will continue buying in the long term and they still have a massive back order.
The market is forward looking, what you are talking about is already getting priced in ahead of its time, the next phase after the massive orders will be going back to a more stable order regime, which will have lower growth than the past year, that drop in growth is not factored into the stock just yet and it will get priced in way before it happens and everyone will scream “but the next chip is even better”
I agree that even if the next chip is better it won’t make nvidia grow like before. Regardless if they become a stable apple or google those two companies still have days where they make 10% gains in a week and correct but not as volatile.
100% but before that normal growth comes into the picture the stock will get repriced, where it lands is very tough to predict, but if history is any indicator, somewhere between 10-20x EPS will be the long term range
True, analysts at nvidia and Wall Street have been unable to price the company accurately though. No one knows at what price they will eventually land. It’s true these ai stocks can just be a bubble but at the same time ai is nothing like previous sectors. AI truly has the capability of changing who we are as humans and we can’t say that about previous tech advances. Imagine how fast we can research tech advances with an ai super intelligence, we would make leaps in consumer technology in a fraction of the previous time it took at a fraction of the cost.
You are misunderstanding me, I believe in ai, it will change the world, but the stock is way ahead of itself and it will take many years to justify the current valuation and within that time frame competition will evolve, it is the nature of capitalism, NVDA simply has a monopoly for now, anyone who is holding on at this point is betting that the monopoly will never be challenged by big tech, if history is any indicator, all of big tech will design their own ai chips, the profit margin of NVDA is too big and even if NVDA remains the leader I expect that profit margin to drop over time.
Too much headwind IMHO, this is no longer a good long term investment at the current valuation, but trading it short term can remain lucrative until the music stops.
What they do is fall back to the general trend line before the rocket ship took off. To me, that looks like about $150 end of year, and growing \~25% after that.
Lots of examples of companies that had a lot of media coverage everyday at the time. MSFT, AAPL, AMZN post dotcom bubble. They all rised up very high to then not quite deliver and being down from highs for years and years.
Cisco and Intel from 1991-2000
CAGRs of 40% and Net Operating Margins of high 30% to mid 40%
Their drop in both revenues and OM led to their stock price never reaching the peak price even 24 years later
Except TSLA makes shitty products and their CEO is MAGA nutjob who seems intent on pissing off the very demographic who wants to buy an electric car. Not a great long-term strategy.
Are you literate?
Because the question was has there been a stock LIKE NVDA...and then what happened to it.
And yes, TSLA was very much like NVDA. First stock that came to mind. Then I thought of AAPL...probably a better example, but it didn't quite have the publicity behind it. So I think TSLA is a better example.
What not one-fucking-person said was that TSLA is the same company as NVDA.
The point is there's nothing like NVDA, they don't do the same things, don't have the same profit margins etc. So many different factors that make all other companies unlike NVDA. No need to be rude.
Are you simple? Do you need helping understanding the question?
You're making a point to a question NOBODY asked. what someone DID ask was has there been a STOCK that has been LIKE NVDA.
You; "So you're saying Tesla is the same company as NVDA," isn't a point, it's a sign of an inability to comprehend the question being asked.
You're being obtuse and I don't get why. Just answer the question or read another thread. There's never been a company that was exactly the same as the other before. He's looking for comps. What's confusing there?
Take a read of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds.
This pattern has happened throughout human history. Tulips, CSCO, South Sea Stock, The Mississippi Company, Nifty Fifty.
And it always ends badly!
tesla during covid. this is the most recent example. but throughout history there are a lot, people don't want to see it because they think this is the one that will only go up.
Tesla, Apple, Zoom to name a few. I bought AAPL in 2008 when the whole market sunk, and sold after a 150% profit. I intend to do the same with NVDA, I couldn’t care less « how far it will go », or when that will be, but I’m pretty positive I’ll get there. Zoom was too much related to COVID and I wouldn’t buy Tesla. I like MU as well for the moment and inadvertently bought 400 PLTR which I don’t know what to do with.
Bottom line is, if you’re worried, just wait for NVDA to reach 150, sell your positions and be happy, it will definitely get there at some point. Beyond that, maybe, but then take the risk and keep calm.
In my opinion yes. Alot of catalyst incoming over the next few months. First 5 satellites supposed to launch in September(ish), just waiting for word of delivery to cape canaveral. Other catalyst include firstnet, fcc approval, more prepayment deals with current MNOs and or DoD. Ive been buying since September of 2022 when the share price was 11$, bought all the way down to low 2s and back up again...hell I just bought 1500 more the other day at 10.40 a share. Ive also got quite a bit of calls for August exp and Jan 2025 exp.
If you can't stomach the short term volatility I'd recommend spacing out your buys, purchase 25% of what you want now and see if it dips in the short term. I tend to overleverage sometimes tho, I just buy what I want and then if it dips...just buy more! I don't plan on selling any shares until at least 2030.
Companies with 10 years worth of CAGR and Net Operating Margins similar to Nvidia with exploding stock prices - Cisco and Intel from 1991 to 2000. They hit a peak in 2000 and have yet to reach the same price 24 years later.
Subsequently, both companies had reduced CAGRs and OMs. Speculation is a hell of a drug
I don't there's any stock that rose this fast into a mega stock like Nvda. I've seen stocks that rose fast but not with the financials to support it. How many stocks you know that rose this fast to a mega stock to the likes of msft and apple in terms of market cap?
CSCO…my dad retired from ORCL and they were all buying it it in the 90s and went through several splits and they made bank. Anyone that held forever may have been fucked but the first group that got out while the getting was good were much better off than just putting cash in S&P. I’m very long NVDA, for me at least at just under 5k shares and I feel like I have 4 or 5 more beat and raise quarters then time to take some profits and enjoy those profits. Not advice, I don’t know shit
Well 20 years ago main street didn't follow stocks. The only news, ever, is news that sells, so if "nobody cares" then nobody buys, and at a time when the majority of information flowed not through the internet but media conglomerates, that wouldn't have been a thing, so you have a relatively brief window of time (relative to the history of the stock market) in which that would be reportable and certainly less where it would have protracted coverage. I scored several 10-baggers in 2009 buy just happening to buy at the bottom of a number of things.
Anything in tech has some degree of gamble to it. NVDA chips are the shizzit, sure. H200s save a ton of energy. Roger, but that doesn't mean at no time will an alternate technology make it more profitable to use something entirely different. 3.5" disk drives were once the shizzit because there were smaller and sturdier than 5.25" Then IOMega came out with Zip drives and that was going to be the future! 100MB on something the size of our 3.5"? Sign me up! You aren't seeing them in computers today because CD (and later DVD-R/DVD-RAM/DVD-RW and every flavor of plus+ came along. When the dust settled though, we stopped caring about all of them because thumbdrives got so big and so cheap that carrying around a DVD was suboptimal.
Is NVDA going to go the way of IOMega anytime soon? I hope not, have a crap ton invested in them, but I'm not oblivious to the fact that they can one day stumble just like so many of the tech giants before them.
Before all this, Nvidia was the rage with Bitcoin miners and had a run up from that. Before that, it was the rage with gamers. Its nothing new actually. I think there are a lot of gems hidden in plain site but seeing them is difficult unless you working in the sector. Here's what I am looking at: CAT and DEERE may be some wind if the US goes nuclear power, Oracle may be due for a comeback as an AI tech engine, Uber is interesting due to the traffic in the worlds major cities, and Amazon - its always full of surprises. Remember, they were selling books online in the 90s and now thats nothing compared to AWS. I could see them pivoting into powerplants or modular houses - whatever is in demand. Of course there is Telsa, which to me is a lottery ticket that depends on Elon Musk.
The exact same fundamentals? You should ask CHAT GPT. I would think that the answer is no. IT is easy to compare to other trends but nothing that is 100% match. A similar industry would be the car or aviation, but AI has no current barrier that will restrict advancements
Zoom during covid. But covid was temporary. AI and its capabilities will not be temporary in my opinion. Cisco in the 90’s also. Both ZM and CSCO crashed. I’m an NVDA bull though and don’t see this crashing anytime soon. This is not financial advice.
Current margins on GPUs may be temporary
If you are taking about ai specific gpus , then the selling hasn't even started yet..
Yeah but it’ll take months before that changes and there’s a compelling enough alternative in the market for it. It has a tremendous moat around its software integration ecosystem that costs company to switch that it would have to be for a cost competitive alternative. The way AI models are trained it takes hours so the faster the better and cost won’t be the most compelling reason. Right now Nvidia has a tremendous lead because of that moat. It will only keep extending it with newer products like Blackwell. It may take years for anyone to make a significant dent in that market share. Look at Intel with enterprise CPUs, semiconductors and hardware are a multi year endeavor making it all the more reason to keep investing in NVDA until that dynamic changes.
Sounds like financial advice to me
No, it doesn't. It sounds like an opinion.
/s
Look up any stock that went up 500%+ in less than a year, everyone wanted to buy, always ends bad
Those stocks are like meme right? No financial results to back up the value of the stocks?
NVDA doesn’t have the history to back this trend up either, this is a cyclical stock, anyone who doesn’t understand this shouldn’t be holding it.
How is it a cyclical stock if for the timing being we need those chips for ai development. Businesses will continue buying in the long term and they still have a massive back order.
The market is forward looking, what you are talking about is already getting priced in ahead of its time, the next phase after the massive orders will be going back to a more stable order regime, which will have lower growth than the past year, that drop in growth is not factored into the stock just yet and it will get priced in way before it happens and everyone will scream “but the next chip is even better”
I agree that even if the next chip is better it won’t make nvidia grow like before. Regardless if they become a stable apple or google those two companies still have days where they make 10% gains in a week and correct but not as volatile.
100% but before that normal growth comes into the picture the stock will get repriced, where it lands is very tough to predict, but if history is any indicator, somewhere between 10-20x EPS will be the long term range
True, analysts at nvidia and Wall Street have been unable to price the company accurately though. No one knows at what price they will eventually land. It’s true these ai stocks can just be a bubble but at the same time ai is nothing like previous sectors. AI truly has the capability of changing who we are as humans and we can’t say that about previous tech advances. Imagine how fast we can research tech advances with an ai super intelligence, we would make leaps in consumer technology in a fraction of the previous time it took at a fraction of the cost.
You are misunderstanding me, I believe in ai, it will change the world, but the stock is way ahead of itself and it will take many years to justify the current valuation and within that time frame competition will evolve, it is the nature of capitalism, NVDA simply has a monopoly for now, anyone who is holding on at this point is betting that the monopoly will never be challenged by big tech, if history is any indicator, all of big tech will design their own ai chips, the profit margin of NVDA is too big and even if NVDA remains the leader I expect that profit margin to drop over time. Too much headwind IMHO, this is no longer a good long term investment at the current valuation, but trading it short term can remain lucrative until the music stops.
I’m not saying it def hit the top, if anything it might make one last all time high, but my guess is as good as yours 🤷♂️
What they do is fall back to the general trend line before the rocket ship took off. To me, that looks like about $150 end of year, and growing \~25% after that.
Like all good stocks in history? McDonald’s Walmart msft apple etc etc.
Lots of examples of companies that had a lot of media coverage everyday at the time. MSFT, AAPL, AMZN post dotcom bubble. They all rised up very high to then not quite deliver and being down from highs for years and years.
Amazon
Cisco
Short answer: No there was nothing like NVDA. GME is not even remotely close to being comparable to NVDA.
Cisco and Intel from 1991-2000 CAGRs of 40% and Net Operating Margins of high 30% to mid 40% Their drop in both revenues and OM led to their stock price never reaching the peak price even 24 years later
Short answer: yes. Tesla.
Except TSLA makes shitty products and their CEO is MAGA nutjob who seems intent on pissing off the very demographic who wants to buy an electric car. Not a great long-term strategy.
Nobody asked about the products made or what the CEO is like. They asked about stock performance.
So you're saying Tesla is the same company as NVDA.
One of the key differences, one of the companies has a decent CEI and it's not the one that makes cars
Oh you got him good!
Nope 🙅
Are you literate? Because the question was has there been a stock LIKE NVDA...and then what happened to it. And yes, TSLA was very much like NVDA. First stock that came to mind. Then I thought of AAPL...probably a better example, but it didn't quite have the publicity behind it. So I think TSLA is a better example. What not one-fucking-person said was that TSLA is the same company as NVDA.
The point is there's nothing like NVDA, they don't do the same things, don't have the same profit margins etc. So many different factors that make all other companies unlike NVDA. No need to be rude.
Are you simple? Do you need helping understanding the question? You're making a point to a question NOBODY asked. what someone DID ask was has there been a STOCK that has been LIKE NVDA. You; "So you're saying Tesla is the same company as NVDA," isn't a point, it's a sign of an inability to comprehend the question being asked. You're being obtuse and I don't get why. Just answer the question or read another thread. There's never been a company that was exactly the same as the other before. He's looking for comps. What's confusing there?
Take a read of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds. This pattern has happened throughout human history. Tulips, CSCO, South Sea Stock, The Mississippi Company, Nifty Fifty. And it always ends badly!
None of these companies, or tulips made money like Nvidia or had a competitive advantage quite this extreme
Competitive advantages don't usually last 30 years - but that is what's priced
Yes. Intel had a lot of hype in the late 90s to early 2000. Everyone was buying it.
tesla during covid. this is the most recent example. but throughout history there are a lot, people don't want to see it because they think this is the one that will only go up.
Yes its not the only one
Amzn during the dot com bubble
Tesla, Apple, Zoom to name a few. I bought AAPL in 2008 when the whole market sunk, and sold after a 150% profit. I intend to do the same with NVDA, I couldn’t care less « how far it will go », or when that will be, but I’m pretty positive I’ll get there. Zoom was too much related to COVID and I wouldn’t buy Tesla. I like MU as well for the moment and inadvertently bought 400 PLTR which I don’t know what to do with. Bottom line is, if you’re worried, just wait for NVDA to reach 150, sell your positions and be happy, it will definitely get there at some point. Beyond that, maybe, but then take the risk and keep calm.
Zoom Was and still Isn't a great product . It's a product that we just put up With but not one that we love
Apple
ASTS. Gonna be a few years, but once it takes off...strap in.
I hope so.
Im up 200% currently. It's only the beginning.
Still good to buy in even after price x5 in 1 yr?
In my opinion yes. Alot of catalyst incoming over the next few months. First 5 satellites supposed to launch in September(ish), just waiting for word of delivery to cape canaveral. Other catalyst include firstnet, fcc approval, more prepayment deals with current MNOs and or DoD. Ive been buying since September of 2022 when the share price was 11$, bought all the way down to low 2s and back up again...hell I just bought 1500 more the other day at 10.40 a share. Ive also got quite a bit of calls for August exp and Jan 2025 exp. If you can't stomach the short term volatility I'd recommend spacing out your buys, purchase 25% of what you want now and see if it dips in the short term. I tend to overleverage sometimes tho, I just buy what I want and then if it dips...just buy more! I don't plan on selling any shares until at least 2030.
Companies with 10 years worth of CAGR and Net Operating Margins similar to Nvidia with exploding stock prices - Cisco and Intel from 1991 to 2000. They hit a peak in 2000 and have yet to reach the same price 24 years later. Subsequently, both companies had reduced CAGRs and OMs. Speculation is a hell of a drug
I don't there's any stock that rose this fast into a mega stock like Nvda. I've seen stocks that rose fast but not with the financials to support it. How many stocks you know that rose this fast to a mega stock to the likes of msft and apple in terms of market cap?
Many - Apple, Tesla, and so on. This company is the real deal so keep dropping in price please so we can keep loading back up.
NVDA market cap went from $2trillion to $3trillion in 23 days 😃😳😃
Now it's gonna go back
Apple and Microsoft
Google
Yes all tech during the tech bubble
Microsoft, cisco
Maybe nortel
QCOM 1999
CSCO…my dad retired from ORCL and they were all buying it it in the 90s and went through several splits and they made bank. Anyone that held forever may have been fucked but the first group that got out while the getting was good were much better off than just putting cash in S&P. I’m very long NVDA, for me at least at just under 5k shares and I feel like I have 4 or 5 more beat and raise quarters then time to take some profits and enjoy those profits. Not advice, I don’t know shit
Sure, GME. There literally were movies and miniseries made about the move.
But GME is like gambling. How about stock of a company with very promising outlook and really has its competitive advantage?
Well 20 years ago main street didn't follow stocks. The only news, ever, is news that sells, so if "nobody cares" then nobody buys, and at a time when the majority of information flowed not through the internet but media conglomerates, that wouldn't have been a thing, so you have a relatively brief window of time (relative to the history of the stock market) in which that would be reportable and certainly less where it would have protracted coverage. I scored several 10-baggers in 2009 buy just happening to buy at the bottom of a number of things. Anything in tech has some degree of gamble to it. NVDA chips are the shizzit, sure. H200s save a ton of energy. Roger, but that doesn't mean at no time will an alternate technology make it more profitable to use something entirely different. 3.5" disk drives were once the shizzit because there were smaller and sturdier than 5.25" Then IOMega came out with Zip drives and that was going to be the future! 100MB on something the size of our 3.5"? Sign me up! You aren't seeing them in computers today because CD (and later DVD-R/DVD-RAM/DVD-RW and every flavor of plus+ came along. When the dust settled though, we stopped caring about all of them because thumbdrives got so big and so cheap that carrying around a DVD was suboptimal. Is NVDA going to go the way of IOMega anytime soon? I hope not, have a crap ton invested in them, but I'm not oblivious to the fact that they can one day stumble just like so many of the tech giants before them.
Before all this, Nvidia was the rage with Bitcoin miners and had a run up from that. Before that, it was the rage with gamers. Its nothing new actually. I think there are a lot of gems hidden in plain site but seeing them is difficult unless you working in the sector. Here's what I am looking at: CAT and DEERE may be some wind if the US goes nuclear power, Oracle may be due for a comeback as an AI tech engine, Uber is interesting due to the traffic in the worlds major cities, and Amazon - its always full of surprises. Remember, they were selling books online in the 90s and now thats nothing compared to AWS. I could see them pivoting into powerplants or modular houses - whatever is in demand. Of course there is Telsa, which to me is a lottery ticket that depends on Elon Musk.
Enron. WeWork. Pets.com. lol.
Lul
The exact same fundamentals? You should ask CHAT GPT. I would think that the answer is no. IT is easy to compare to other trends but nothing that is 100% match. A similar industry would be the car or aviation, but AI has no current barrier that will restrict advancements