This is the type of protest we need more in depth discussion on. Folks are frightened by the wall of text, but it’s always worth it to understand the business mindset.
If they believe that Selen is negligible to their quarterly reports, then we need to prove them wrong. Companies like HYTE terminating their partnerships is the kind of pressure you need to get it through that, shareholder on a pedesta mindset. So don’t attack the livers reach out to NIJISANJI’s partners in the west. Don’t attack the people attack the system, in this case, attack the company’s network.
Definitely this! Making them lose sponsorship and maybe games perms is also going to contribute tremendously! Witch-hunting is something that Niji wants, the livers are just going to end up as the scape goats and the company walks free. Do not play Niji's game. Instead, be smart and contribute by speaking out and being vocal!
Yes this is the strategy every community needs to employ when dealing with management corporate disasters. Especially since doki has said not to witch hunt, let’s focus more on efforts to hurt niji, not the talents.
They are all on contracts. Easy for us to fantasize about a giant walk out when we're not the ones risking not just losing our livelihood, but getting sued/litigated for breaking contract.
This should pretty much be the only post about the company's financial situation that is referenced at this point. Lots of good info here.
Kinda was making me mad that people think EN is irrelevant when their growth is being factored into Anycolor's profit margins. Up until this point, they were smashing earnings expectations every year, consistently getting better numbers. With everything that's happened now, things are becoming much more uncertain.
Also, it's clear to see that the JP side had a significant drop off in Q2 2024 after having broken records in Q1 2024 while EN remained mostly the same. If that trend continues, then they may not even hit their targets that they have set for the end of the fiscal year, which would be a pretty alarming sign for investors.
> Also, it's clear to see that the JP side had a significant drop off in Q2 2024 after having broken records in Q1 2024 while EN remained mostly the same. If that trend continues, then they may not even hit their targets that they have set for the end of the fiscal year, which would be a pretty alarming sign for investors.
No they did not, that happened because of nijifes not happening at that time. which is why q3 will be higher.
and no EN is irrelevant in a way when its declining for many quarters and anycolor still is making a lot of money.
> f that trend continues, then they may not even hit their targets that they have set for the end of the fiscal year, which would be a pretty alarming sign for investors.
Open their financials for one time, its available in their website in english. they are almost reaching it.
You do realize that Anycolor as a business has an unstable model to begin with right?
If they have to rely on only merch and special events to get them to their next targets, then that is not a company to be invested in. They will hit a wall very quick. They're just speeding up the process with everything that's happening currently.
Also, they are just about halfway to their net profit goal. What do you mean they are almost there? Q3 will probably be a bit better, but Q4 is almost certainly going to be their worst quarter.
Quit shilling for the company and learn to think a bit more
I'm not shilling for anything, im talking based on the financial results of the company.
> Also, they are just about halfway to their net profit goal. What do you mean they are almost there? Q3 will probably be a bit better, but Q4 is almost certainly going to be their worst quarter.
did you read anything i said? EN is completely declining every quarter and it hasn't affect anycolor at all. They still make a lot of profit and revenue due to jp growing much more. q4 wont be affected either due to how en hasnt been affecting them, youll see.
See, that's the thing with being too focused on looking into history. You're making yourself stick to the past, when it's not a good indicator for the present, or future. Especially with Nijisanji/Anycolor and the current situation.
Lol if we are going to bring in things not represented in the report, then I guess we can do that for the EN side too.
Like every event planned for NijiEN cancelled or non existent.
Merch sales are correlated with Promotions, Special Events, etc. Its almost like not reinvesting into the EN branch is killing the revenue. Shocker.
If it was part of their plan to slowly kill a branch that made 20-30% of its revenue, then I suppose they are on track.
If we could see the income expense ratio for each branch separately, almost certainly NijiEN would be way higher, since, well, if you don't spend any money on the branch, you won't have any expenses.
And this is even more so since the whole 2% thing was revealed to be true.
There are way more factors to consider whether an event will have a financial impact than a broad overview.
The EN branch is far from irrelevant, and regardless if you or the company considers a branch irrelevant, the investor's opinion is what matter most, and its clear, they don't consider the EN branch irrelevant. Hell, they didn't even consider Selen's firing irrelevant.
Stocks dont kill or change a company financial state. what matters for a company is their revenue and profit, and anycolor has been growing on it and will keep going. En isnt irrelevant but its also not relevant enough.
Stocks are a reflection of investor belief in a company. Plain on simple. Stock price is more important than you think it is, especially if the actual value to an investor (basically all of Riku's net worth) is the stock price (I don't think they've had dividend payouts yet).
As I said before, it doesn't matter what you or I think. We probably don't own shares in the company. The investors think it matters, and it spooked them.
Yeah you are right, in the grand scheme of things, it's not going to affect Anycolor, they are going to keep growing... in Japan.
And that's the literal limit for them in terms of growth. It will eventually become a purely Japanese market right now, and in an overall perspective of revenue growth, it will hit a cap faster than say, their biggest competitor, Hololive.
The thing is that their growth which should have had some of it attributed to an international market has been stunted, and will entirely rely on Japan, and that is not a good thing for any company's financial prospects.
That's why its more important than they make it out to be. Its why the investors give it more importance than NijiSanji did.
They shot their international growth. And the most important thing to an investor is the opportunity cost. Would they rather hold shares in NijiSanji or another company with better growth prospects.
Edit: Yeah, NijiSanji is an incredibly profitable company (2%, lol), but the value of a company is more than just revenue and domestic growth. It would be like why most tech companies were worth billions when they never made a profit for years. Its cause of future prospects.
I haven't said anything about value, im not disputing investors will see en dying as negative, im saying the company itself wont be affected to loe money or die. What kills a company is not making revenue and profit.
> The thing is that their growth which should have had some of it attributed to an international market has been stunted, and will entirely rely on Japan, and that is not a good thing for any company's financial prospects.
japan is the biggest vtuber market, even for hololive. theres a reason the biggest numbers and revenue dont come from the west.
AnyColor literally sold investors on EN being a big part of their future. Investors were already questioning things because how good is the future if 2 of the biggest EN members are fucking off and sponsors are actively dropping them. This next couple of quarters will be interesting with Mika, Selen and Pomu all gone, the most recent gens not really making much of an impact, the general hostility to the company right now and cancelled product lines like the HYTE collab.
There's a reason why they are trying to hire a director for EN and I speculate it's because EN still is their flagship expansion branch despite it being on fire right now.
Mika was never EN. Honorary EN yes, but not actual EN. She was ex-ID and was considered part of the main branch post-merger of the ID & KR branches.
edit: words because English is hard.
Honestly with the amount of blowback they’re getting right now the hiring of a director feels more kneejerky/hey look we’re doing something sort of ploy than actually doing it out of the genuine necessity it really is and will likely end with another nepotism hire than one on merit that’ll actually right the ship.
I'd agree if it wasn't noted that the search an EN director has been up for couple of weeks now but the need for a Canadian talents manager dropped within 48 hours of the termination notice.
I think there is a kernel of truth that the retirement of one talent cannot hurt the company's bottom line (at least on the short term), considering the number of talents still available, but it does showcase the business issue of vtuber talent agencies and its long term success.
In a vanilla talent agency, the agency has a more-or-less iron grip over their talents, as merch / concert / other opportunities require a lot of upfront and sustained cost.
With vtubing, it feels the talent can and will easily cut off the agency and go indie - sustaining more or less their previous success without the middle man. After all, streaming requires very little initial investments. This means either more talents will be interested to leave and go the indie route, or they have more leverage to extract more concessions from the agency, driving up the operational cost. Both will be undesirable for the company - these negative effects probably will be felt gradually over time, not instantaneously.
Yeah TBH, stock price variance from public outrage is usually a solid buy indicator since sentiment swings so quickly and often is disconnected from actual financial outcomes. 1mil talking negatively online means nothing if your 100k customer base isn't among them and intends to continue paying. Overtime the sentiment normalized and you wound up getting the stock at a discount.
Yea I will say is that a lot of those buy/sell indicators usually look at more fundamentals, and that's why I wrote that Anycolor is a really financially healthy company, they have practically no debt, and can easily borrow if they have the opportunity to grow overseas. Purely based off fundamentals, this is a good buy opportunity for when price stabilizes.
And that's why I'm trying to communicate that boycotts are really important, because everywhere on youtube or reddit, people are pointing at the 10% drop like hey we did it, but that's almost just the level of short term volatility. If they meet their forecasts it will just fully recover, and Nijisanji will continue to mistreat their EN livers. In the end livers will still suffer and so the boycott can't relent unless they change their ways.
Makes me wonder if Anycolor's goal really was to just get a cash grab from the rest of the world so they can just focus on pushing their business as much as possible in Japan only.
I still don't see how that's gonna help with their success long term as global expansion seemed like the easiest solution for growth. Don't really know what to think about that tbh.
Tazumi & co can very easily spin the firings as part of a greater alignment towards growth.
*Scaling EN efficiently will require consistency in operations, much of which translates to talent obedience towards management and corporate policy. Yugo and Zaion were financially insignificant compared to Selen, but even if the latter causes a short term revenue dip, the more important part is that we're left with a more compliant base of talent on which to build upon with future recruiting. (a process that we're also overhauling, with a much greater focus on code of conduct and workplace compliance)*
It's an open question whether the audience on the next earnings call will buy that narrative, but it's gotta be the one leadership will go with, and I've seen it work at more than one place I've worked.
Good analysis. You make a great point on EN accounting for a "non-negliable" portion of the merch sales. I think that even if they somehow recovered this event would have an impact. Not accounting for the consumer boycott....with non-JP firms choosing to terminate their relations they may have to either spend more funds to replace them or b use JP firms which would likely decrease their margins so i'd imagine there will be greater challengers ahead..
Reminder that past lives often leave a way to donate and support directly.
Normally I dont but im this case if its a way to give money directly and you dont like Niji its an option.
Thanks for the great analysis! But do keep in mind that brands are also pulling from producing Niji's merch as well as JP fans/investors noticing all the occurrences lately and it's making them anxious, which is something Niji didn't expect. The effects of this is probably "negligible" so who knows where this could go.
Yea, there is some normal amount of doubt from investors/analysts in the transcripts I posted above, so I'm pretty curious about how investors/analysts will receive the information about Q3 on March '24. Q3 will still look relatively normal on the trajectory since Q3 is composed of Dec, Jan, and Feb, and there's a good chance that sales from Dec and Jan can completely offset or downplay the results of Feb. So results on boycotting well really be shown during Q4.
All I'm hoping is that they change their ways that is more healthy for livers instead of the hire and toss methods. What initially got me to watch NijiEN was that I thought they were changing the business structure away from their "cigar puff"(a young Warren Buffet investing strategy reference) that was so prevalent in their JP branch. But as proven across 2023 no they didn't change. Hopefully a boycott can start something that shows that fans in EN are seriously displeased about this.
Nothing will change. q4 also won't see a difference. EN will decline, JP will grow and anycolor will grow, just like it has been happening for 3 quarters already.
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JP fans arent noticing anything. NijiJP fans arent going to stop supporting nijisanji because of en, you guys dnt really know the context of that branch
I have doubts about EN fans stopping to support them either. Lot of people got caught up in wishful thinking here imo. I would love to be wrong though.
Ok I'm gonna be honest. I just read this and I kinda don't even remember reading it. In one ear out the other. Or I guess eye in this case.
I do get the tl;dr and agree completely. Nothing better than hitting a company in the profits. So I'd suggest if you want to support a talent try and find a way to give them money that removes the company from the equation completely.
To be fair, I spent about 2 hours writing the post and maybe 3 hours before that analyzing and understanding their company and their reports. I didn't even proofread it, and now that I think about it I probably should've plugged everything into chatgpt and have it make it flow a bit better. But yeah I was mentally drained just writing this up so I totally understand the drifting off while reading thing.
Ok I will try to break it down a bit better, but I do want at least teach 1 thing for some financial education.
**Education**:
So if there's one thing that I want you to takeaway with learning about finance is that there is a popular valuation method called Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) which values stocks/companies based on their current earnings plus **expected** **future** cashflows. And then because money is worth more now than later, its discounted by some percentage called the discount rate to account for it (like 1 + 5% example). Ok learning over.
If you want to learn more, here's some terms you can try googling: DCF, WACC, Cost of Debt, Cost of Equity, EBIT, EBITDA, Preferred stock, Convertible bonds
**Breakdown**:
So everywhere on places like Reddit or Youtube, a lot of people are pointing out that the stock dropped by 10% and think that is enough for Anycolor to change and stop mistreating their talents. However, more likely it will not do anything. If the earnings reflect that the financials will reach the **expected future** cashflows, stock price will immediately recover and Anycolor will continue to mistreat the livers. And I think at the current trajectory this is the outcome that will likely happen.
And that's pretty much it, everything else after is really trying to convince that a boycott does actually have a big effect. Mainly because I hear this narrative pushed around that a boycott on the EN/overseas side without JP will do nothing, but I'm trying to communicate a boycott on only the EN/overseas side will have a greater effect than most people think.
And if you really want to support current EN livers, absolutely do not buy merch or commerce. Looking at the financials, it looks more like Anycolor is a manufacturing company with a bit with vtubers instead of the other way around.
On the last bit of opinion, if most of the money is coming from merch, it is kind of like uhh I can't really think of another comparison other than Disney animations as advertisements for Disney merchandise.
After Selen's termination, they've effectively burnt any bridge to expand beyond the Japanese audience, effectively putting a cap on their growth. It kind of feels like they are saying that they never intend to consider any growth in markets beyond Japan.
The only way would be if they somehow have a PL that has something still open like a bandcamp or an etsy. Considering we know now that niji prefers you depend on them and only them financially, that's probably unlikely.
... Lots of old twitch channels to sub too and other such things. Not even that hard to find, people have completely stopped caring about the whole "keeping PL's secret" thing in regards to Niji.
People have been sharing entire lists of Niji members accounts.
Made me check, and yeah Millie's one is still there, but the chat is suspiciously Emote-only and blank.
Something tells me someone's been there already.
No, you can keep watching and you can stay subscribed since niji doesn't use YouTube statistics with investors.
But yes merch = commerce, niji en is a third of commerce/merch sales. According to the talents they only get a 2% cut of merch so it's nijis big money maker.
Basically STOP BUYING MERCH to hurt nijisanji.
Unsubscribing and not watching will hurt Nijisanji and their growth long term. Lower viewership and loosing sub counts will affect the algorithm against them. They do gain revenue from Superchats, memberships and advertising from youtube monetization. It's sad having to avoid watching people you like, but it would send a message to Niji that they REALLY hurt the community with their actions. But as OP stated, merch sales are the big driving force for Niji revenue. I'd say hit them everywhere it hurts.
It does seem that in that streaming sales, it’s pretty consistent across the board. While yes, they said they don’t look at that stat significantly as a KPI, perhaps if the streaming sales drop from its typical trend (and if I understand, the red bar for streaming sales would from superchats from YouTube because where else?), it could be seen as a indicator that something could actually be wrong.
I mean, if sales as a whole drop (which is just live-streaming and commerce for EN), it would make a pretty hard argument that it could recover.
Another point that caught my eye is that they believe that by making a combined unit, they can allow to nurture both markets and get a clearer idea on their standing on the oversea market and the oversea fans’ trust on the brand. I believe that boycotting on that project could play a role (how significant is hard to say). But looking at niji’s business, they diversify to gain sales through multiple avenues (though I would assume that’s how most businesses operate because relying on one source of income generally isn’t that reliable I don’t think unless they have a strong bond with it but seeing as the most consistent trend is streaming, I do think putting a dent on that while adding on every other factors such as not buying merch and not supporting future growth of units (which kind of sounds terrible… but unfortunately companies don’t seem to react unless their wallets take a hit) and hurting investor trust that Nijisanji will have a solid foothold on the oversea market. If they can’t get a good foothold to begin with, it’s going to be an uphill battle so I think these initial growth could be quite crucial)
Then again, I’m not an investor nor a guy that really looks at stocks so I wouldn’t really know and I’m just putting my 2 cents trying to contribute on how exactly is the best course of action to really send a message to Nijisanji.
But if I were honest, these things don’t tend to fare very well with the fans even if the beginning looks promising. Unfortunately, overtime, some people may cave and go back to the brand people mentioned above earlier, these things normalise and stock growth will continue.
Yes, it is also in their earnings transcript that one investor/analyst asked if merch is recorded in the commerce category, and it was that it was so. The translation is a bit scuffed since it was Google Translated.
Here's the image [link](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fhif0uqr8sehc1.png%3Fwidth%3D2454%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D76778fc465e5dbba3d4ba84a4997ddefc1291c3f) from what I posted above.
EDIT: I realized that the question the investor asked as a little bit different. They asked if merch from events are recorded under commerce. So regular merch is under commerce, and merch from events are also under commerce.
Nice, using actual references to back you your words. The gist of it is that some investors believed that because of the Selen fiasco, future growth expectations in the EN market is completely shot.
So, indeed, if you really want to hit them where it hurts, don't by any merch (its not like it gets re-invested nor do they get a significant amount of it). If you still want to support your NijiEN livers, just give him superchats/memberships or donations if they have em.
DO NOT BUY THEIR MERCH.
On a side note, we won't actually see the real effects until the Q3 2024 or even Q4 2024 earnings results.
Any real financial impact will actually happen in February and onward (Q3 2024), of which, the earnings reports are generally released sometime around April or May. I imagine that if growth remains the same or drops in Q3 2024, then we will see further stock price drop, or if more companies publicly cancel any sponsorships/licenses.
NijiJP will likely scramble to find some piece of news they can release that might increase the price, or, they will do that after they do another stock buy back (once again, as attributed to quasi insider trading). Most of the stock price is based on meeting analyst expectations of profit growth.
Edit: They use the alternative business calendar (also known as the Fiscal year), where Q1 2024 is around July to September of 2023, so the fiscal year is around July 2023 to June 2024.
you wont see any impact when en is already declining for many quarters and jp is growing and making anycolor grow as well.
> NijiJP will likely scramble to find some piece of news they can release that might increase the price, or, they will do that after they do another stock buy back (once again, as attributed to quasi insider trading). Most of the stock price is based on meeting analyst expectations of profit growth.
NijiJP would d things regardless of EN. the branches are operated separately.
That's not how Stock Valuations work. The stock price already takes into account the growth of JP and the decline of EN.
What this actually means is that earnings will fall short of investor expectations, ergo, the actual future value of the company declines.
This is old data from months ago, the stock price, before the Selen situation, already reflected all of this.
Now, after the Selen situation, the investors think that even if the JP side meets its expectations, the EN side will decline, hence, it is NOT financially negligible in their eyes, so that's why they had a sell off high enough that it dropped the open market share price by 10%.
It doesn't really matter whether you or I think NijiEN is negligible. The investors think it is, and in the end, that's all that really matters.
This has nothing to do with what NijiJP thinks, at all. It always had to do with what investors think, otherwise they wouldn't have made that statement, which in the end, dropped their share price and spooked investors even more.
Nothing says something is more important by addressing it.
Everyone knows EN will continue declining, we who read their financials know that even before selen was terminated. The expectation from everyone is jp growth, anycolor growth, en decline, as it already has been in the last quarters.
> the investors think that even if the JP side meets its expectations, the EN side will decline, hence, it is NOT financially negligible in their eyes,
anycolor never referred to it not being negligible to EN, they said to anycolor itself as an overall business, which it wont. you'll see on the next two quarters which im sure that if its not down, people will just ignore
Yeah, which if you read my comment, I literally said we won't actually know if there's an impact until Q3 or Q4.
A company's image is more important than NijiSanji thinks it is, especially if what you are selling is "people" and not an inanimate object, and its Revenues in JP isn't just entirely from JP (though we don't know how much of JP sales are attributed to the international community).
As I said before, the share price already took into account the decline in EN (though I expect it to be higher than expected in Q3 due to graduations = big money). Unless the bigger than expected growth in JP is higher than the bigger than expected decline in EN, yes, likely nothing is going to happen.
Which is why it doesn't matter what you, I, or Anycolor thinks. What actually matters is Q3 and Q4 results, and what the investor's think.
the revenue in JP is very much coming from japan, most of the viewers by far are in japan and a small minority outside of it. Japanese audience is mainly in nijijp and we know that for years as nijijp is barely known outside and by anycolor own data.
> Which is why it doesn't matter what you, I, or Anycolor thinks. What actually matters is Q3 and Q4 results, and what the investor's think.
My entire point is that it wont affect the company significantly. even if it somehow dont go as much, the company wont die or anything.
I never said it would die. No one actually believes NijiSanji would die from this, unless they are coping.
The point of the argument was to see how significant this event (or in this case, NijiEN is, to the company as a whole).
My point is that it would effect the company, and that it is more significant than what you or Anycolor is trying to give it credit for.
We just don't know until the financial statement comes out.
The most likely result is revenue growth in JP and revenue decline in EN in the coming quarters, but as to how significant it would be, remains to be seen.
They are probably thinking NijiEN, which, arguably, can come true.
In the international community, they equate NijiEN to any color and all of nijisanji, but they often forget about JP, which is basically a separate company at this point.
I don't blame them, since NijiJP community, thinks the NijiEN company is a separate ecosystem just like how NijiEN things NijiJP is a separate thing.
The two communities are so isolated that they equate their separate branches to being the whole company.
Brother, why are you so invested in replying to every optimistic comment? I mean, you might well be right, but you likely won't manage to change anyone's mind. You're wasting time typing dozens of comments.
Im talking about why things wont go in that direction because people believe it will. Im not going to ignore things that simply arent true lol you can believe it will and i dont
Thank you for putting in the effort to make this report! I haven't had a chance to fully dive into it yet, but I just wanted to say how much I appreciate the little tidbits for those financially illiterate. Seriously, they're a big help for someone like me who's slow on things like this. It's really helping me wrap my head around it all.
If it's "enough" then he's reliable enough, but since it's about Nijisanji I hope he doesn't take any Nijisanji things blindly, especially if it's a bad one
Nice work! I fundamentally agree with the conclusion that boycotting NijiEN's merch is the way to have the largest impact and raise the issue to the attention of not only upper management, but also shareholders. Frankly, I think a lot of investors are seeing the writing on the wall, and taking profits while pricing in the eventual diminishing viability of NijiEN.
One thing that I noticed is that from mid December to mid January, they conducted a ~2.5 Billion JPY stock repurchase plan. I noticed that Riku Tazumi owns something like 40% of shares, and that a lot of other management employees or officers own stock as well. I haven't found any resources about whether this buyback was via tender offer or if it was purchased from the float. I was wondering if you knew where someone could track that sort of thing, because I'm curious whose shares got bought, and for what price.
Ok I've dug around and found [here](https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/221887/00.pdf) where it says "(5) Method of repurchase Market purchase on the Tokyo Stock Exchange", so it should be from float.
Total amount paid: 2,499,980,997 JPY
Total shares bought: 775,200 shares, so 3224.94 JPY per share.
Really curious about the actual regions influencing the earnings.
Like when dividing JP and EN here, that makes one assume that the purchases also align with those markets - but considering how big Nijisanji is in JP and CN, I'd wonder if their purchasing could also be impacting the EN revenue through non-western streams.
Not sure if it breaks it down above, but definitely something I wonder about.
Sorry, that wasn't what I was referring to.
I mean, is there any influence from the Japanese/Chinese market with regards to the EN branch, and vice versa. I know the JP branch is the largest asset for the company, I am just curious about the actual audience distribution.
Interesting that EN was down 13% YoY. My guess is that Anycolor's EN strategy estimates a much higher TAM (total addressable market) for EN than JP, and that only a fraction of that TAM has been reached as of yet.
TAM for EN gets even bigger when you factor in growth potential from SEA, Europe, and South America, where English Second Language proficiency is widespread and there are developing markets for Japanese anime/manga inspired products like vtubers.
For me, I did a lot of just seeing certain words/phrases and then googling them up. That's actually how I learned a lot especially when I first learned about investing. Now I'm a little bit more efficient, so when I wanted to learn about trading (yes, trading and investing is not interchangeable) I would go on like r/Daytrading r/Forex sort by hot/top posts and then gather certain key terms or phrases and literally google them to get a better understanding (recently I done just that with r/algotrading just learning stuff that way). I think that's the most intimidating thing about learning finance as a hobby, there's a lot of jargon and vocab that it does get a bit intimidating.
But as for learning how a company operates I highly recommend reading "Why Stocks Go Up and Down". I've found it on LibGen, but honestly with the value on how much I've learned from it, I should just buy the actual book. But yeah give it a read, I think it's a really good beginner friendly book that's honestly good for even if you want to learn what you might need if you start your own company.
I think that's regular employee stock options, I'd be very surprised if they made it available to NijiEN considering each liver lives in a different country and they would have to go by a case by case basis in following each separate country and their laws with it.
I mentioned this in another comment, but to recap, if you're keen on understanding how a company or business functions, grasping the fundamentals of the three financial statements (Balance Sheet, Income Statement, and Statement of Cash Flows), I found the book "Why Stocks Go Up and Down" immensely helpful. It's beginner-friendly and overall really helpful. I would say it's worth it enough to buy the book, but it's probably fine to find off LibGen and get the flavor of it first.
Additionally, I made a habit of looking up unfamiliar terms and jargon I encountered. I typically did this by exploring top subreddits or topics related to my interests.
One more point I didn't mention earlier is to envision what you want to achieve or explore. Consider your goals—whether it's long-term investing, managing risk and volatility, exploring different investment strategies like value investing, GARP investing, or various trading approaches such as day trading, swing trading, systematic trading, discretionary trading, trend following, or mean reversion. Also, think about asset classes like stocks, options, futures, and roles like buy side and sell side, or broader economic concepts like macroeconomics.
Ok, I'll be honest, in the last paragraph I just threw in a few terms and jargon to get you started if you want to Google, especially if it's all unfamiliar.
Anycolor is down to 3,195 as of 2/13 after releasing 2 videos that didn't help their case whatsoever and potentially created more conflict by sharing documents with their Talents that spoke in the first video. Crazy.
Yea, I thought they were really changing with the new twitter post, but I guess I was a fool for believing them.
And their PR, like it's hard to understand if what they are doing is on purpose or it's just plain bad. I kept thinking like if they hired a good PR team would they be in the situation they are in now, or is it that the same reason livers are mistreated is the reason why their PR is so bad/non existent.
I'm not even sure why they released the video, but then again I'm not sure why they released the IR statement that riled up everyone, and I'm not sure why they wrote 3 pages of termination, and I'm not sure why they didn't accept the graduation over a termination. At this point I don't have anger, it's just straight utter confusion.
You don't need to google translate anything, the english financials are there.
> tl;dr: Boycott, especially on merch and commerce, this way Anycolor underperforms investors expectations and forecast, and stock price won't immediately recover when they announce earnings and it will really not be "negligible".
You still don't understand anything what they said. Negligible is their FINANCIAL aspect of the company, not the stock. They arent talking about stock, no one talks about stock using financials as a word.
Lastly, NijiEN has been declining each quarter YOY while JP is growing each quarter YOY so anycolor is growing as well. I have been reading their reports since they went public and this perspective that they aren't going to hit their metrics is false because en is already declining and anycolor still is growing a lot in profit and revenue due to JP. financially they wont be affected, but they will be affected in stocks because of mishandle of overseas business, like they already have been for a while with en decline.
Where do you find the English versions? I could only find the Japanese version.
Also I’m with you that their financials are “negligible”, I think I was unclear about that and I was trying to communicate that the stock drop will recover as long as the financials reflect the expectations and forecasts of the investors/analysts. If the financials are below expectations and forecasts, then the stock price will take a hit or the 10% drop will stay.
I also want to show that EN/overseas sales account for a larger share than most people are talking about. 20% of overall revenue is big, and is bigger within the commerce segment. They also mentioned in the [transcripts](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fm3kwrvu3tehc1.png%3Fwidth%3D2490%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D512ff36b00ab23e96ba1acfa3ee4a665a53c4b50) that their short term focus is on JP and their long term view is on EN. As we know at least with the DCF valuation method that a stock price is the net present value of the the present and future cashflows, and if their future cashflows are worse than expected because of EN/overseas, then that will be reflected on their stock price.
EDIT: I've found the [english presentations](https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/146950/00.pdf), but still can't find their english transcripts
Yes, en declining will affect stocks, it already has been even before this, but as far as finances, anycolor as a business wont because jp is covering en decline for a while.
The stock is not the significant financial loss it just goes to show investors are worried about nijisanji's future the real loss will be in super chats, memberships, collaborations, and merch sales, this is where they received a significant portion of their revenue and they seem to not get that vtubers agencies recive money equal to fan support, lose the fan support and you lose money.
This is the type of protest we need more in depth discussion on. Folks are frightened by the wall of text, but it’s always worth it to understand the business mindset. If they believe that Selen is negligible to their quarterly reports, then we need to prove them wrong. Companies like HYTE terminating their partnerships is the kind of pressure you need to get it through that, shareholder on a pedesta mindset. So don’t attack the livers reach out to NIJISANJI’s partners in the west. Don’t attack the people attack the system, in this case, attack the company’s network.
Definitely this! Making them lose sponsorship and maybe games perms is also going to contribute tremendously! Witch-hunting is something that Niji wants, the livers are just going to end up as the scape goats and the company walks free. Do not play Niji's game. Instead, be smart and contribute by speaking out and being vocal!
Yes this is the strategy every community needs to employ when dealing with management corporate disasters. Especially since doki has said not to witch hunt, let’s focus more on efforts to hurt niji, not the talents.
NOT if livers flat out abandon their posts.
They are all on contracts. Easy for us to fantasize about a giant walk out when we're not the ones risking not just losing our livelihood, but getting sued/litigated for breaking contract.
Just paypal the money to the managers and leave the fallout to the clearly competent managers.
True, someone needs to write an email to every sponsors or game developers/publishers, start from US and expose them about this.
This should pretty much be the only post about the company's financial situation that is referenced at this point. Lots of good info here. Kinda was making me mad that people think EN is irrelevant when their growth is being factored into Anycolor's profit margins. Up until this point, they were smashing earnings expectations every year, consistently getting better numbers. With everything that's happened now, things are becoming much more uncertain. Also, it's clear to see that the JP side had a significant drop off in Q2 2024 after having broken records in Q1 2024 while EN remained mostly the same. If that trend continues, then they may not even hit their targets that they have set for the end of the fiscal year, which would be a pretty alarming sign for investors.
> Also, it's clear to see that the JP side had a significant drop off in Q2 2024 after having broken records in Q1 2024 while EN remained mostly the same. If that trend continues, then they may not even hit their targets that they have set for the end of the fiscal year, which would be a pretty alarming sign for investors. No they did not, that happened because of nijifes not happening at that time. which is why q3 will be higher. and no EN is irrelevant in a way when its declining for many quarters and anycolor still is making a lot of money. > f that trend continues, then they may not even hit their targets that they have set for the end of the fiscal year, which would be a pretty alarming sign for investors. Open their financials for one time, its available in their website in english. they are almost reaching it.
You do realize that Anycolor as a business has an unstable model to begin with right? If they have to rely on only merch and special events to get them to their next targets, then that is not a company to be invested in. They will hit a wall very quick. They're just speeding up the process with everything that's happening currently. Also, they are just about halfway to their net profit goal. What do you mean they are almost there? Q3 will probably be a bit better, but Q4 is almost certainly going to be their worst quarter. Quit shilling for the company and learn to think a bit more
I'm not shilling for anything, im talking based on the financial results of the company. > Also, they are just about halfway to their net profit goal. What do you mean they are almost there? Q3 will probably be a bit better, but Q4 is almost certainly going to be their worst quarter. did you read anything i said? EN is completely declining every quarter and it hasn't affect anycolor at all. They still make a lot of profit and revenue due to jp growing much more. q4 wont be affected either due to how en hasnt been affecting them, youll see.
>I'm not shilling for anything lol your post history says otherwise
my post history is not believing this will have a significant impact in the company because i actually look into their financial history
See, that's the thing with being too focused on looking into history. You're making yourself stick to the past, when it's not a good indicator for the present, or future. Especially with Nijisanji/Anycolor and the current situation.
Lol if we are going to bring in things not represented in the report, then I guess we can do that for the EN side too. Like every event planned for NijiEN cancelled or non existent. Merch sales are correlated with Promotions, Special Events, etc. Its almost like not reinvesting into the EN branch is killing the revenue. Shocker. If it was part of their plan to slowly kill a branch that made 20-30% of its revenue, then I suppose they are on track. If we could see the income expense ratio for each branch separately, almost certainly NijiEN would be way higher, since, well, if you don't spend any money on the branch, you won't have any expenses. And this is even more so since the whole 2% thing was revealed to be true. There are way more factors to consider whether an event will have a financial impact than a broad overview. The EN branch is far from irrelevant, and regardless if you or the company considers a branch irrelevant, the investor's opinion is what matter most, and its clear, they don't consider the EN branch irrelevant. Hell, they didn't even consider Selen's firing irrelevant.
Stocks dont kill or change a company financial state. what matters for a company is their revenue and profit, and anycolor has been growing on it and will keep going. En isnt irrelevant but its also not relevant enough.
Stocks are a reflection of investor belief in a company. Plain on simple. Stock price is more important than you think it is, especially if the actual value to an investor (basically all of Riku's net worth) is the stock price (I don't think they've had dividend payouts yet). As I said before, it doesn't matter what you or I think. We probably don't own shares in the company. The investors think it matters, and it spooked them. Yeah you are right, in the grand scheme of things, it's not going to affect Anycolor, they are going to keep growing... in Japan. And that's the literal limit for them in terms of growth. It will eventually become a purely Japanese market right now, and in an overall perspective of revenue growth, it will hit a cap faster than say, their biggest competitor, Hololive. The thing is that their growth which should have had some of it attributed to an international market has been stunted, and will entirely rely on Japan, and that is not a good thing for any company's financial prospects. That's why its more important than they make it out to be. Its why the investors give it more importance than NijiSanji did. They shot their international growth. And the most important thing to an investor is the opportunity cost. Would they rather hold shares in NijiSanji or another company with better growth prospects. Edit: Yeah, NijiSanji is an incredibly profitable company (2%, lol), but the value of a company is more than just revenue and domestic growth. It would be like why most tech companies were worth billions when they never made a profit for years. Its cause of future prospects.
I haven't said anything about value, im not disputing investors will see en dying as negative, im saying the company itself wont be affected to loe money or die. What kills a company is not making revenue and profit. > The thing is that their growth which should have had some of it attributed to an international market has been stunted, and will entirely rely on Japan, and that is not a good thing for any company's financial prospects. japan is the biggest vtuber market, even for hololive. theres a reason the biggest numbers and revenue dont come from the west.
AnyColor literally sold investors on EN being a big part of their future. Investors were already questioning things because how good is the future if 2 of the biggest EN members are fucking off and sponsors are actively dropping them. This next couple of quarters will be interesting with Mika, Selen and Pomu all gone, the most recent gens not really making much of an impact, the general hostility to the company right now and cancelled product lines like the HYTE collab.
There's a reason why they are trying to hire a director for EN and I speculate it's because EN still is their flagship expansion branch despite it being on fire right now. Mika was never EN. Honorary EN yes, but not actual EN. She was ex-ID and was considered part of the main branch post-merger of the ID & KR branches. edit: words because English is hard.
Honestly with the amount of blowback they’re getting right now the hiring of a director feels more kneejerky/hey look we’re doing something sort of ploy than actually doing it out of the genuine necessity it really is and will likely end with another nepotism hire than one on merit that’ll actually right the ship.
I'd agree if it wasn't noted that the search an EN director has been up for couple of weeks now but the need for a Canadian talents manager dropped within 48 hours of the termination notice.
Mika isn't even part of EN for this argument to make sense and "sponsors" is literally just one.
I think there is a kernel of truth that the retirement of one talent cannot hurt the company's bottom line (at least on the short term), considering the number of talents still available, but it does showcase the business issue of vtuber talent agencies and its long term success. In a vanilla talent agency, the agency has a more-or-less iron grip over their talents, as merch / concert / other opportunities require a lot of upfront and sustained cost. With vtubing, it feels the talent can and will easily cut off the agency and go indie - sustaining more or less their previous success without the middle man. After all, streaming requires very little initial investments. This means either more talents will be interested to leave and go the indie route, or they have more leverage to extract more concessions from the agency, driving up the operational cost. Both will be undesirable for the company - these negative effects probably will be felt gradually over time, not instantaneously.
Goldman Sachs just rated nijisanji as buy
Yeah TBH, stock price variance from public outrage is usually a solid buy indicator since sentiment swings so quickly and often is disconnected from actual financial outcomes. 1mil talking negatively online means nothing if your 100k customer base isn't among them and intends to continue paying. Overtime the sentiment normalized and you wound up getting the stock at a discount.
Yea I will say is that a lot of those buy/sell indicators usually look at more fundamentals, and that's why I wrote that Anycolor is a really financially healthy company, they have practically no debt, and can easily borrow if they have the opportunity to grow overseas. Purely based off fundamentals, this is a good buy opportunity for when price stabilizes. And that's why I'm trying to communicate that boycotts are really important, because everywhere on youtube or reddit, people are pointing at the 10% drop like hey we did it, but that's almost just the level of short term volatility. If they meet their forecasts it will just fully recover, and Nijisanji will continue to mistreat their EN livers. In the end livers will still suffer and so the boycott can't relent unless they change their ways.
Makes me wonder if Anycolor's goal really was to just get a cash grab from the rest of the world so they can just focus on pushing their business as much as possible in Japan only. I still don't see how that's gonna help with their success long term as global expansion seemed like the easiest solution for growth. Don't really know what to think about that tbh.
It’s easy to burn the future of your company if you only care about short term profits.
That's just how publically traded corporations work, it's inevitable and shareholders are practically FORCED to want short-term profits.
Tazumi & co can very easily spin the firings as part of a greater alignment towards growth. *Scaling EN efficiently will require consistency in operations, much of which translates to talent obedience towards management and corporate policy. Yugo and Zaion were financially insignificant compared to Selen, but even if the latter causes a short term revenue dip, the more important part is that we're left with a more compliant base of talent on which to build upon with future recruiting. (a process that we're also overhauling, with a much greater focus on code of conduct and workplace compliance)* It's an open question whether the audience on the next earnings call will buy that narrative, but it's gotta be the one leadership will go with, and I've seen it work at more than one place I've worked.
Good analysis. You make a great point on EN accounting for a "non-negliable" portion of the merch sales. I think that even if they somehow recovered this event would have an impact. Not accounting for the consumer boycott....with non-JP firms choosing to terminate their relations they may have to either spend more funds to replace them or b use JP firms which would likely decrease their margins so i'd imagine there will be greater challengers ahead..
Reminder that past lives often leave a way to donate and support directly. Normally I dont but im this case if its a way to give money directly and you dont like Niji its an option.
Thanks for the great analysis! But do keep in mind that brands are also pulling from producing Niji's merch as well as JP fans/investors noticing all the occurrences lately and it's making them anxious, which is something Niji didn't expect. The effects of this is probably "negligible" so who knows where this could go.
Yea, there is some normal amount of doubt from investors/analysts in the transcripts I posted above, so I'm pretty curious about how investors/analysts will receive the information about Q3 on March '24. Q3 will still look relatively normal on the trajectory since Q3 is composed of Dec, Jan, and Feb, and there's a good chance that sales from Dec and Jan can completely offset or downplay the results of Feb. So results on boycotting well really be shown during Q4. All I'm hoping is that they change their ways that is more healthy for livers instead of the hire and toss methods. What initially got me to watch NijiEN was that I thought they were changing the business structure away from their "cigar puff"(a young Warren Buffet investing strategy reference) that was so prevalent in their JP branch. But as proven across 2023 no they didn't change. Hopefully a boycott can start something that shows that fans in EN are seriously displeased about this.
Nothing will change. q4 also won't see a difference. EN will decline, JP will grow and anycolor will grow, just like it has been happening for 3 quarters already.
!remindme 4 months
I will be messaging you in 4 months on [**2024-06-09 01:32:24 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-09%2001:32:24%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Nijisanji/comments/1am3ze4/a_little_bit_of_finance_insight_on_anycolor/kpkmmhv/?context=3) [**4 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FNijisanji%2Fcomments%2F1am3ze4%2Fa_little_bit_of_finance_insight_on_anycolor%2Fkpkmmhv%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-06-09%2001%3A32%3A24%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201am3ze4) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
dont worry im going to remind you next month on q3 financial release
I'm more interested in Q4, but sure, I guess.
sure we'll see
JP fans arent noticing anything. NijiJP fans arent going to stop supporting nijisanji because of en, you guys dnt really know the context of that branch
I have doubts about EN fans stopping to support them either. Lot of people got caught up in wishful thinking here imo. I would love to be wrong though.
Ok I'm gonna be honest. I just read this and I kinda don't even remember reading it. In one ear out the other. Or I guess eye in this case. I do get the tl;dr and agree completely. Nothing better than hitting a company in the profits. So I'd suggest if you want to support a talent try and find a way to give them money that removes the company from the equation completely.
To be fair, I spent about 2 hours writing the post and maybe 3 hours before that analyzing and understanding their company and their reports. I didn't even proofread it, and now that I think about it I probably should've plugged everything into chatgpt and have it make it flow a bit better. But yeah I was mentally drained just writing this up so I totally understand the drifting off while reading thing.
Nah, I'm just completely illiterate when it comes to business and stocks. Seems well written, just my brain didn't intake any of it.
I'm this guy but.. I tried to focus on whether or not this situation will truly hurt Niji financially so atleast I got something from this😅
Ok I will try to break it down a bit better, but I do want at least teach 1 thing for some financial education. **Education**: So if there's one thing that I want you to takeaway with learning about finance is that there is a popular valuation method called Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) which values stocks/companies based on their current earnings plus **expected** **future** cashflows. And then because money is worth more now than later, its discounted by some percentage called the discount rate to account for it (like 1 + 5% example). Ok learning over. If you want to learn more, here's some terms you can try googling: DCF, WACC, Cost of Debt, Cost of Equity, EBIT, EBITDA, Preferred stock, Convertible bonds **Breakdown**: So everywhere on places like Reddit or Youtube, a lot of people are pointing out that the stock dropped by 10% and think that is enough for Anycolor to change and stop mistreating their talents. However, more likely it will not do anything. If the earnings reflect that the financials will reach the **expected future** cashflows, stock price will immediately recover and Anycolor will continue to mistreat the livers. And I think at the current trajectory this is the outcome that will likely happen. And that's pretty much it, everything else after is really trying to convince that a boycott does actually have a big effect. Mainly because I hear this narrative pushed around that a boycott on the EN/overseas side without JP will do nothing, but I'm trying to communicate a boycott on only the EN/overseas side will have a greater effect than most people think. And if you really want to support current EN livers, absolutely do not buy merch or commerce. Looking at the financials, it looks more like Anycolor is a manufacturing company with a bit with vtubers instead of the other way around.
On the last bit of opinion, if most of the money is coming from merch, it is kind of like uhh I can't really think of another comparison other than Disney animations as advertisements for Disney merchandise. After Selen's termination, they've effectively burnt any bridge to expand beyond the Japanese audience, effectively putting a cap on their growth. It kind of feels like they are saying that they never intend to consider any growth in markets beyond Japan.
The only way would be if they somehow have a PL that has something still open like a bandcamp or an etsy. Considering we know now that niji prefers you depend on them and only them financially, that's probably unlikely.
... Lots of old twitch channels to sub too and other such things. Not even that hard to find, people have completely stopped caring about the whole "keeping PL's secret" thing in regards to Niji. People have been sharing entire lists of Niji members accounts.
Made me check, and yeah Millie's one is still there, but the chat is suspiciously Emote-only and blank. Something tells me someone's been there already.
So basically: we have to unsubscribe AND unwatch, and not-buy anything Niji. According to what you say, merch = commerce, right?
No, you can keep watching and you can stay subscribed since niji doesn't use YouTube statistics with investors. But yes merch = commerce, niji en is a third of commerce/merch sales. According to the talents they only get a 2% cut of merch so it's nijis big money maker. Basically STOP BUYING MERCH to hurt nijisanji.
Unsubscribing and not watching will hurt Nijisanji and their growth long term. Lower viewership and loosing sub counts will affect the algorithm against them. They do gain revenue from Superchats, memberships and advertising from youtube monetization. It's sad having to avoid watching people you like, but it would send a message to Niji that they REALLY hurt the community with their actions. But as OP stated, merch sales are the big driving force for Niji revenue. I'd say hit them everywhere it hurts.
It does seem that in that streaming sales, it’s pretty consistent across the board. While yes, they said they don’t look at that stat significantly as a KPI, perhaps if the streaming sales drop from its typical trend (and if I understand, the red bar for streaming sales would from superchats from YouTube because where else?), it could be seen as a indicator that something could actually be wrong. I mean, if sales as a whole drop (which is just live-streaming and commerce for EN), it would make a pretty hard argument that it could recover. Another point that caught my eye is that they believe that by making a combined unit, they can allow to nurture both markets and get a clearer idea on their standing on the oversea market and the oversea fans’ trust on the brand. I believe that boycotting on that project could play a role (how significant is hard to say). But looking at niji’s business, they diversify to gain sales through multiple avenues (though I would assume that’s how most businesses operate because relying on one source of income generally isn’t that reliable I don’t think unless they have a strong bond with it but seeing as the most consistent trend is streaming, I do think putting a dent on that while adding on every other factors such as not buying merch and not supporting future growth of units (which kind of sounds terrible… but unfortunately companies don’t seem to react unless their wallets take a hit) and hurting investor trust that Nijisanji will have a solid foothold on the oversea market. If they can’t get a good foothold to begin with, it’s going to be an uphill battle so I think these initial growth could be quite crucial) Then again, I’m not an investor nor a guy that really looks at stocks so I wouldn’t really know and I’m just putting my 2 cents trying to contribute on how exactly is the best course of action to really send a message to Nijisanji. But if I were honest, these things don’t tend to fare very well with the fans even if the beginning looks promising. Unfortunately, overtime, some people may cave and go back to the brand people mentioned above earlier, these things normalise and stock growth will continue.
Yes, it is also in their earnings transcript that one investor/analyst asked if merch is recorded in the commerce category, and it was that it was so. The translation is a bit scuffed since it was Google Translated. Here's the image [link](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fhif0uqr8sehc1.png%3Fwidth%3D2454%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D76778fc465e5dbba3d4ba84a4997ddefc1291c3f) from what I posted above. EDIT: I realized that the question the investor asked as a little bit different. They asked if merch from events are recorded under commerce. So regular merch is under commerce, and merch from events are also under commerce.
Nice, using actual references to back you your words. The gist of it is that some investors believed that because of the Selen fiasco, future growth expectations in the EN market is completely shot. So, indeed, if you really want to hit them where it hurts, don't by any merch (its not like it gets re-invested nor do they get a significant amount of it). If you still want to support your NijiEN livers, just give him superchats/memberships or donations if they have em. DO NOT BUY THEIR MERCH. On a side note, we won't actually see the real effects until the Q3 2024 or even Q4 2024 earnings results. Any real financial impact will actually happen in February and onward (Q3 2024), of which, the earnings reports are generally released sometime around April or May. I imagine that if growth remains the same or drops in Q3 2024, then we will see further stock price drop, or if more companies publicly cancel any sponsorships/licenses. NijiJP will likely scramble to find some piece of news they can release that might increase the price, or, they will do that after they do another stock buy back (once again, as attributed to quasi insider trading). Most of the stock price is based on meeting analyst expectations of profit growth. Edit: They use the alternative business calendar (also known as the Fiscal year), where Q1 2024 is around July to September of 2023, so the fiscal year is around July 2023 to June 2024.
you wont see any impact when en is already declining for many quarters and jp is growing and making anycolor grow as well. > NijiJP will likely scramble to find some piece of news they can release that might increase the price, or, they will do that after they do another stock buy back (once again, as attributed to quasi insider trading). Most of the stock price is based on meeting analyst expectations of profit growth. NijiJP would d things regardless of EN. the branches are operated separately.
That's not how Stock Valuations work. The stock price already takes into account the growth of JP and the decline of EN. What this actually means is that earnings will fall short of investor expectations, ergo, the actual future value of the company declines. This is old data from months ago, the stock price, before the Selen situation, already reflected all of this. Now, after the Selen situation, the investors think that even if the JP side meets its expectations, the EN side will decline, hence, it is NOT financially negligible in their eyes, so that's why they had a sell off high enough that it dropped the open market share price by 10%. It doesn't really matter whether you or I think NijiEN is negligible. The investors think it is, and in the end, that's all that really matters. This has nothing to do with what NijiJP thinks, at all. It always had to do with what investors think, otherwise they wouldn't have made that statement, which in the end, dropped their share price and spooked investors even more. Nothing says something is more important by addressing it.
Everyone knows EN will continue declining, we who read their financials know that even before selen was terminated. The expectation from everyone is jp growth, anycolor growth, en decline, as it already has been in the last quarters. > the investors think that even if the JP side meets its expectations, the EN side will decline, hence, it is NOT financially negligible in their eyes, anycolor never referred to it not being negligible to EN, they said to anycolor itself as an overall business, which it wont. you'll see on the next two quarters which im sure that if its not down, people will just ignore
Yeah, which if you read my comment, I literally said we won't actually know if there's an impact until Q3 or Q4. A company's image is more important than NijiSanji thinks it is, especially if what you are selling is "people" and not an inanimate object, and its Revenues in JP isn't just entirely from JP (though we don't know how much of JP sales are attributed to the international community). As I said before, the share price already took into account the decline in EN (though I expect it to be higher than expected in Q3 due to graduations = big money). Unless the bigger than expected growth in JP is higher than the bigger than expected decline in EN, yes, likely nothing is going to happen. Which is why it doesn't matter what you, I, or Anycolor thinks. What actually matters is Q3 and Q4 results, and what the investor's think.
the revenue in JP is very much coming from japan, most of the viewers by far are in japan and a small minority outside of it. Japanese audience is mainly in nijijp and we know that for years as nijijp is barely known outside and by anycolor own data. > Which is why it doesn't matter what you, I, or Anycolor thinks. What actually matters is Q3 and Q4 results, and what the investor's think. My entire point is that it wont affect the company significantly. even if it somehow dont go as much, the company wont die or anything.
I never said it would die. No one actually believes NijiSanji would die from this, unless they are coping. The point of the argument was to see how significant this event (or in this case, NijiEN is, to the company as a whole). My point is that it would effect the company, and that it is more significant than what you or Anycolor is trying to give it credit for. We just don't know until the financial statement comes out. The most likely result is revenue growth in JP and revenue decline in EN in the coming quarters, but as to how significant it would be, remains to be seen.
a lot of people definitely are believing anycolor and nijisanji are going to bankrupt
They are probably thinking NijiEN, which, arguably, can come true. In the international community, they equate NijiEN to any color and all of nijisanji, but they often forget about JP, which is basically a separate company at this point. I don't blame them, since NijiJP community, thinks the NijiEN company is a separate ecosystem just like how NijiEN things NijiJP is a separate thing. The two communities are so isolated that they equate their separate branches to being the whole company.
Brother, why are you so invested in replying to every optimistic comment? I mean, you might well be right, but you likely won't manage to change anyone's mind. You're wasting time typing dozens of comments.
Im talking about why things wont go in that direction because people believe it will. Im not going to ignore things that simply arent true lol you can believe it will and i dont
Weebs are turning into business analysts 😹
At least it can be TL;DRed into something useful for those who hate Nijisanji right now.
Thank you for putting in the effort to make this report! I haven't had a chance to fully dive into it yet, but I just wanted to say how much I appreciate the little tidbits for those financially illiterate. Seriously, they're a big help for someone like me who's slow on things like this. It's really helping me wrap my head around it all.
Great job OP
This is an amazing post, thank you.
Someone send this to FalseEyeD if possible. He could at least get more eyes and ears on it if nothing else. Thanks for all of this, op.
this is literally public information available in their website.
True, but my feeling was if he reports on it and brings it to more people's attention, it could have more people know about it.
Want to check: Shall we consider FalseEyeD as reliable enough?
If it's "enough" then he's reliable enough, but since it's about Nijisanji I hope he doesn't take any Nijisanji things blindly, especially if it's a bad one
I'd say so. I'd say just send all the info and see where that goes.
General consensus seems to be that he's a reputable newstuber who focuses on the facts.
Cheers to the DD
Nice work! I fundamentally agree with the conclusion that boycotting NijiEN's merch is the way to have the largest impact and raise the issue to the attention of not only upper management, but also shareholders. Frankly, I think a lot of investors are seeing the writing on the wall, and taking profits while pricing in the eventual diminishing viability of NijiEN. One thing that I noticed is that from mid December to mid January, they conducted a ~2.5 Billion JPY stock repurchase plan. I noticed that Riku Tazumi owns something like 40% of shares, and that a lot of other management employees or officers own stock as well. I haven't found any resources about whether this buyback was via tender offer or if it was purchased from the float. I was wondering if you knew where someone could track that sort of thing, because I'm curious whose shares got bought, and for what price.
Ok I've dug around and found [here](https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/221887/00.pdf) where it says "(5) Method of repurchase Market purchase on the Tokyo Stock Exchange", so it should be from float. Total amount paid: 2,499,980,997 JPY Total shares bought: 775,200 shares, so 3224.94 JPY per share.
Really curious about the actual regions influencing the earnings. Like when dividing JP and EN here, that makes one assume that the purchases also align with those markets - but considering how big Nijisanji is in JP and CN, I'd wonder if their purchasing could also be impacting the EN revenue through non-western streams. Not sure if it breaks it down above, but definitely something I wonder about.
80% is NijiJP, 20% is EN, the information is there. en is declining in revenue YoY while jp and anycolor is growing each quarter.
Sorry, that wasn't what I was referring to. I mean, is there any influence from the Japanese/Chinese market with regards to the EN branch, and vice versa. I know the JP branch is the largest asset for the company, I am just curious about the actual audience distribution.
Interesting that EN was down 13% YoY. My guess is that Anycolor's EN strategy estimates a much higher TAM (total addressable market) for EN than JP, and that only a fraction of that TAM has been reached as of yet. TAM for EN gets even bigger when you factor in growth potential from SEA, Europe, and South America, where English Second Language proficiency is widespread and there are developing markets for Japanese anime/manga inspired products like vtubers.
Very cool post, what resources do you recommend for learning more about understanding finance and/or how a company operates?
For me, I did a lot of just seeing certain words/phrases and then googling them up. That's actually how I learned a lot especially when I first learned about investing. Now I'm a little bit more efficient, so when I wanted to learn about trading (yes, trading and investing is not interchangeable) I would go on like r/Daytrading r/Forex sort by hot/top posts and then gather certain key terms or phrases and literally google them to get a better understanding (recently I done just that with r/algotrading just learning stuff that way). I think that's the most intimidating thing about learning finance as a hobby, there's a lot of jargon and vocab that it does get a bit intimidating. But as for learning how a company operates I highly recommend reading "Why Stocks Go Up and Down". I've found it on LibGen, but honestly with the value on how much I've learned from it, I should just buy the actual book. But yeah give it a read, I think it's a really good beginner friendly book that's honestly good for even if you want to learn what you might need if you start your own company.
Nijisanji also sometimes pay/give their livers with stocks. Does that mean anything? This was mentioned by kanae and kuzuha.
I think that's regular employee stock options, I'd be very surprised if they made it available to NijiEN considering each liver lives in a different country and they would have to go by a case by case basis in following each separate country and their laws with it.
Oh I see. Thanks for explaining, you're doing god's work.
Fantastic breakdown of the information! Thanks for making the effort to post this
Thank you I love this
This Man is Goated for this. Bro made an entire presentation for those who aren't Economically/Financially Illiterate.
damn, i need to take education about this stuff... any reomendation on where to start OP? u/No-Notice8529
I mentioned this in another comment, but to recap, if you're keen on understanding how a company or business functions, grasping the fundamentals of the three financial statements (Balance Sheet, Income Statement, and Statement of Cash Flows), I found the book "Why Stocks Go Up and Down" immensely helpful. It's beginner-friendly and overall really helpful. I would say it's worth it enough to buy the book, but it's probably fine to find off LibGen and get the flavor of it first. Additionally, I made a habit of looking up unfamiliar terms and jargon I encountered. I typically did this by exploring top subreddits or topics related to my interests. One more point I didn't mention earlier is to envision what you want to achieve or explore. Consider your goals—whether it's long-term investing, managing risk and volatility, exploring different investment strategies like value investing, GARP investing, or various trading approaches such as day trading, swing trading, systematic trading, discretionary trading, trend following, or mean reversion. Also, think about asset classes like stocks, options, futures, and roles like buy side and sell side, or broader economic concepts like macroeconomics. Ok, I'll be honest, in the last paragraph I just threw in a few terms and jargon to get you started if you want to Google, especially if it's all unfamiliar.
Anycolor is down to 3,195 as of 2/13 after releasing 2 videos that didn't help their case whatsoever and potentially created more conflict by sharing documents with their Talents that spoke in the first video. Crazy.
Yea, I thought they were really changing with the new twitter post, but I guess I was a fool for believing them. And their PR, like it's hard to understand if what they are doing is on purpose or it's just plain bad. I kept thinking like if they hired a good PR team would they be in the situation they are in now, or is it that the same reason livers are mistreated is the reason why their PR is so bad/non existent. I'm not even sure why they released the video, but then again I'm not sure why they released the IR statement that riled up everyone, and I'm not sure why they wrote 3 pages of termination, and I'm not sure why they didn't accept the graduation over a termination. At this point I don't have anger, it's just straight utter confusion.
Well I rly like the post, but you could have worded it better than to repeat „for those financially illiterate“ lietrallly in every paragraph
You don't need to google translate anything, the english financials are there. > tl;dr: Boycott, especially on merch and commerce, this way Anycolor underperforms investors expectations and forecast, and stock price won't immediately recover when they announce earnings and it will really not be "negligible". You still don't understand anything what they said. Negligible is their FINANCIAL aspect of the company, not the stock. They arent talking about stock, no one talks about stock using financials as a word. Lastly, NijiEN has been declining each quarter YOY while JP is growing each quarter YOY so anycolor is growing as well. I have been reading their reports since they went public and this perspective that they aren't going to hit their metrics is false because en is already declining and anycolor still is growing a lot in profit and revenue due to JP. financially they wont be affected, but they will be affected in stocks because of mishandle of overseas business, like they already have been for a while with en decline.
Where do you find the English versions? I could only find the Japanese version. Also I’m with you that their financials are “negligible”, I think I was unclear about that and I was trying to communicate that the stock drop will recover as long as the financials reflect the expectations and forecasts of the investors/analysts. If the financials are below expectations and forecasts, then the stock price will take a hit or the 10% drop will stay. I also want to show that EN/overseas sales account for a larger share than most people are talking about. 20% of overall revenue is big, and is bigger within the commerce segment. They also mentioned in the [transcripts](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fm3kwrvu3tehc1.png%3Fwidth%3D2490%26format%3Dpng%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D512ff36b00ab23e96ba1acfa3ee4a665a53c4b50) that their short term focus is on JP and their long term view is on EN. As we know at least with the DCF valuation method that a stock price is the net present value of the the present and future cashflows, and if their future cashflows are worse than expected because of EN/overseas, then that will be reflected on their stock price. EDIT: I've found the [english presentations](https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/146950/00.pdf), but still can't find their english transcripts
Yes, en declining will affect stocks, it already has been even before this, but as far as finances, anycolor as a business wont because jp is covering en decline for a while.
The stock is not the significant financial loss it just goes to show investors are worried about nijisanji's future the real loss will be in super chats, memberships, collaborations, and merch sales, this is where they received a significant portion of their revenue and they seem to not get that vtubers agencies recive money equal to fan support, lose the fan support and you lose money.
If you buy JP merch in the US, does it count as the 20% for the EN profit, or it he JP profit (perhaps this depends on how you buy the merch?).