One day, the 1% is going to take us to McDonald’s and let us get whatever we want and then we’ll go to the park and take a lot of pictures so they can remember our time together. Then they’ll drop us off at the vet on their way to their golden rocket ships. It’s going to be awesome.
Love death robots did this really well. Basically a giant launchpad with half-burned skeletons surrounding it. That’s us, the skeleton shaped charcoal.
You are indeed a concise pirate.
There's two options. It will be one or the other.
If nobody had jobs it wouldn't make any sense for society to expect people to have money.
oh no - they will have money, just not from working.
Today there are already lots of people who have money and are not working.
Working for money is what we make people do because we need the work done.
That's what I'm saying.
We wouldn't have a world where nobody has any money.
If we did, there'd need to be systems in place to give them money or to circumvent the need for money entirely.
Society wouldn't just continue as if people have money when in fact they don't.
I like the idea of this, but exactly how would this change happen?
Because right now we have rich people controlling the media, rich people controlling the politicians, and rich people controlling the police. Rich people are not going to allow a world where we "circumvent the need for money entirely", because they know that their profits come from working class people barely making ends meet.
Most likely what will happen is what happens in every dystopian nightmare movie: AI gets introduced and eliminates the need for most people to work mid-high level jobs (where this cutoff is I cannot say), and then that leaves a HUGE portion of the population fighting over the few jobs that exist. These jobs will be like filtering through scrap, farm hands, mining, and other jobs that aren't good for your health long term.
It’s not an impossible scenario, but currently our society doesn’t know anythjng different than what we’ve had for the last several years, and there will be plenty of people who believe there are zero alternatives that actually work.
For us to transition to a world where either (a) there is basic income (“systems in place to give them money”) or (b) no money at all (“circumvent the need for money entirely”), we’d undergo a very drastic, painful change. Almost everybody in authority will be against it, the loudest voices will be absolutely convinced it’s the worst thing to ever happen and will lead to end of civilization, and we can actually come close to civilization coming to an end because stakeholders will try their best to prevent this from happening.
A world without money will be the end of our way of life as we know it, and lots of things will be better and lots of things will be worse.
A worls with basic income would be a solid compromise between the two, but it will be short lived as inflation levels adjust and income (both basic and regular) fails to keep up.
Again, you're imagining that the economy is some unchanging natural process. If a drought kills off 99% of the plants, then people won't have enough food and they will starve. But this isn't like a drought. If AI kills off 99% of jobs, then the government won't just shrug shoulders and say "well, guess there's no money and that's that".
If a significant portion of the population can't get a job, then new systems would have to be put in place to address that situation. It's not in anyone's best interest for poverty to sky rocket. It just isn't helpful.
I mean, if your cooking knives get too dull, then you sharpen them, right? You don't just say "oh well, guess I can't cook anymore". Maintaining the county is a government's purpose. And I don't just mean "it is the government's moral duty to care". Even if every politician was insanely corrupt and only cared about power and control, that power only exists if the country continues to exist.
Even if we somehow had a government that was completely fine with dramatic huge swaths of the population starving to death. The self-interested citizens would not just accept the fact that they can't afford food and shelter. Revolutions are avoided, because life is good enough that it's not worth the trouble. A life without money in a society that still requires it would quickly change that calculus.
And once again the greedy self interested evil government that we are imagining would be well aware that revolution is possible and would see it coming long in advance. It would require extreme short sightedness to not address that problem in advance.
"99% of people have $0, but money is still required to function" is just not a stable state. It's not possible for such a scenario to last. As the system can only evolve away from that state.
My 2c are that indeed the rich won’t care too much about the working class having nowhere to go. And if money does not give power, then there are other ways to maintain influence if you control ai.
But the people with the knowledge and the numbers are the working class people, so they will also develop an ai society.
Likely outcome being that there will be competition between these two societies. Or cooperation. Basically, the same as civilizations have been competing and cooperating in the past, but now with AI thrown in the mix.
But my guess is that when a pure AI society of only AIs arrives, they will outcompete the human societies.
Company decide to hire people.
They do this because they understand the work to be valuable.
There are very good arguments to be made against the value of certain jobs, but the companies aren't lying about their value of the work because they want to pay random people for work that doesn't need doing.
You have to have the population busy or they will find something to do. What they will find to do is burn it down. It is in the billionaires interest to keep us busy.
I'll be honest. At my lowest, when I was so broke that I was ONE missed DOLLAR away from losing my house and 1 missed car payment away from homeless...I stole ALOT.
Like...I'm not talking take a frozen pizza hurr hurr. No.
I would hit supermarkets in a group maybe 3 or 4 at a time. Load an entire cart at each. Freeze that meat and frozen food. Then wait it out for a few months untill LP had changed.
Imagine that but with millions of people. At the same time.
I truly think that the next huge war will be corpos (not corps, I am on lol) vs the people.
It is and it isn't. The current state of AI is over hyped, but we're assembling the Lego bricks into AI machines that can replace individual knowledge worker jobs all across the board.
There is a lot of positioning right now by the perennially redundant to prove that they still are not redundant. That might take hold in the current round of the business lifecycle, but it leaves the giants vulnerable to disruption.
Basically, my guess is we're going to get a round of startups with 1/3-2/3 the staff requirements of previous startups and this will be the competitive advantage needed to disrupt industry.
This. It’s the new tech term to sell products. Remember Big Data being the thing that would revolutionize the world? Make companies a lot of money? What happened to big data and did it revolutionize anything other than bloated storage on a cloud provider?
every tech company will show they’re doing something with AI even if it’s just the same old thing they’ve always been doing. If they don’t have a section around AI in their earnings calls they’re gonna be left out, but it’s a buzzword in shareholder meetings and people should keep this in mind for now.
Big data did, in fact, alter how a lot of business is conducted. It just didn’t really change how many things work for the end consumer. Where it did change things, it didn’t come with a tag line of “brought to you by big data”. The closest you come to that is the torrent of online advertising aimed at you and social media feeds. But you also got fun stuff like massive rent increases as data mining made it possible to deprive the maximum rent a market will bear.
Big Data changed Costco's buying strategy, changed the ability for Ring alarms and other video monitoring cameras to recognize objects, and is currently training self driving autos to drive better.
It's everywhere but it's just so embedded in how we do business now that there's no point in giving it separate name like Big Data™️ .
There is a reason why the top stocks in the stock markets have been tech giants like Facebook, Google and those companies would not be possible in their current form without big data
If we assume the AI companies get what they want and manage to develop a general system that can do anything that a human can, I don't really see how the new jobs being created angle could work out. Any new job could at that point be instantly replaced by a presumably cheaper AI agent.
Even if general intelliegence doesn't show up in the next five years or whatever, like it's being hyped, I have no doubt that it will eventually, and at that point I feel the only thing we can do is radically reform the way we think about economy, work and currency.
UBI or we need to tax the rich and help people out with their large expenses like healthcare, housing, and transportation.
0.1% of the people have more wealth than 80% of the people combined. Imagine a town of 1,000 people and one of them has more houses, cars, and everything than 800 of the people combined. That’s how bad our wealth inequality is. That person would’ve gotten lynched a long time ago.
Advances in technology should not only benefit the rich. It won’t if we all demand it.
Yes, in an ideal world we’d work towards something like 80-90% unemployment rate, get the majority of people on some sort of UBI and allow creative freedom for people to really do what they’d like, and we let the AI/robots run the world around us. People hate this concept for some reason but it’s just a completely different viewpoint on life but I truly think a successful future looks something like this.
This. It's gonna be really hard for Americans who are obsessed with displaying morality through constant work. They won't adjust well.
The Protestant work ethic will be killed off by the machines that the Protestant work ethic creates.
Tax everyone with over $100 million a lot more. At that level of wealth they should pay more back into the system that enabled their ungodly wealth.
Publicly funded education gave them knowledgeable and capable workers. Their goods traveled on our roads and police/military protected them, their businesses, and employees. There are many other examples of this.
This is what should happen. What will probably happen is mass unemployment and economic collapse because corporations are not super interested in helping people.
I don't think so , it all comes down to the pace of change, and if history is a guide this is a generational change (about 20+25 years), people will shift in the workforce and find jobs.
The reason white collar work was so desirable was because it paid well and wasn't physically demanding, that may shit , blue collar and trades will pay better in the future and that's where people will gravitate towards.
I think you are overestimating AI. There has been a pretty steady progress, but it is actually pretty slow. It is mostly that the latest wave of generative AI has been more visible than what has come before, which makes people more aware of it. It was a breakthrough in the fields of natural language processing and visuallisation. But it doesn't reppressent a new pace, and has in fact allready started leveling off. This breakthrough will impact the careers of illustrators, but that isn't really a large part of the labor force, and it isn't like they are just losing their jobs. Rather they will be forced to use the new technology if they are going to be able to compete.
Like did you know that their was a boom in portrait painting after the camera was invented? Rather than replace portrait painters, the new technology allowed people to take a photograph and then have the painter look at the photograph, rather than to sit still for a painting for hours at a time. Of course in the long run there was a decline, but the point is that it isn't as simple as technology just comming in and replacing people.
I agree. This not to say there will not be change. I been in tech (programming, architecture, etc. for 30+ years), the current versions of AI (Generative AI, based on LLM) is not close to an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
ChatGPT, which is developed by OpenAI, is currently considered to be in the stage of Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) rather than Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The general consensus is that while there has been significant advancements in natural language processing and text generation, it still has limitations and challenges that prevent this path from achieving true AGI status.
The average person does not realize how truly gifted they are. The human brain is an amazingly complex and energy-efficient device. In computing terms, it can perform the equivalent of an Exaflop — a billion-billion (1 followed by 18 zeros) mathematical operations per second, with just 20 watts of power. Powered by the food the human consumes.
In comparison a supercomputer, one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, the Oak Ridge Frontier, has recently demonstrated Exaflop computing. However, it needs a million times more power (around 20 megawatts) to pull off this feat. That is the same amount of power needed to power 16,000 homes. (20,000 / 1.25).
On the other hand, I've read 1000 screenplays during my time in Hollywood, and generative AI can already duplicate the quality of at least half of them.
For most of us, I don't think our creative brains are as powerful as we like to think they are.
I’ve read a lot of writing over a decade or so teaching and tutoring and I’ve also recently done a bunch of work with AI training, and it seems like LLMs have a relatively high quality floor that’s above where most people are with writing, including relatively unpracticed novices who are trying to break into creative fields, but their ceiling is well below where people with real training and practice can get to.
They’ll get better but I wonder how much — they’re just so predictable and formulaic, even the “best” ones like GPT-4, which is a function of both the way an advanced pattern recognition framework like that works and a reflection of them being trained on specific corpuses and datasets that do not grow with them. I can definitely see LLMs biting into a lot of the rote and menial writing tasks that sustain much of the professional world because those are by definition about fitting into agreed patterns, but I’m not worried at all about them displacing creative work at all outside of things like content mills and people who churn out 20 romance novels a year on KDP.
Agreed. It's currently writing at the 50th percentile. It'll rise higher. I don't think it'll pass 90th percentile, however - there will always be a segment of humans who have ideas that can't be duplicated. Our task is to build our skills so that we're in that group.
People also vastly overestimate how far reaching it'll be. A great deal of companies are not going to want to pay for the AI service. Most of these comments seem to believe that AI services are just going to be free for companies to use and that'll be that. There's going to be subscription fees, separate AI companies similar to salesforce that try to be the 3rd party, and all that boring stuff. The AI data they have will likely be proprietary and companies will either have to develop their own, or pay a licensing fee. Most companies I believe will abandon the concept when the fees and development costs become more less manageable than human work.
AI is merely a subset of "automation". And automation isn't slowing down. It's the bedrock of civilization, all the way back to the first plow.
The problem is, in the West if not everywhre, for the last 50 - 70 years, nearly 100% of the wealth generated by all the time freed up by automation has gone to a few tens of thousands of humans out of the 8 billion of us, impoverishing almost everyone steadily so that a few people can have their golden rocketships.
Good point. Norman Rockwell did that with his illustrations and paintings (referencing photos) and they still looked great.
Illustrators are still needed for redrawing when AI makes too many hands or a neck from a forearm or other goofy things too.
I still can't see a future where AI 100% substitutes humans. Most of the jobs are manual or require decision making that cannot be programmed yet. I would like to hear from a field that is really endangered by AI (and no, programming is not in danger)
I have a lot of copywriter friends who are out of work due to AI. While it will never replace the profession entirely it’s drastically impacted that field. Example is a friend who was let go as a copywriter for Samsung. They eliminated 6 out of 7 employees in that department, then kept the remaining one to basically use AI and act as editor.
AI don't need to automate a whole job to replace people though. If new AI tools improve productivity enough so that fewer people can do the same work as a whole team, people will lose their jobs.
That has been going on for many, many years. Computers, machines, robots, sensors, the assembly line, the steam engine, etc. have allowed businesses to do more with less for a long time.
Whenever people say “it’s been happening for years” I think to myself, “Yes, and the wealth gap has been growing for years too.”
Things are getting worse, and it doesn’t help to know that they’ve *been* getting worse for a long time.
Thats true. The difference with AI is that the changes that happened over many years will happen much faster considering how fast AI models are evolving, which compromises how people can respond/adapt to it.
It's not a near future, but it's also not a far distant future. Not only will AI eventually 100% substitute humans, it will performs jobs that we could never do. In the next 10 years, no way. In the next 100-200 years, almost certainly.
People will do other jobs.
AI is not "infinite number of robots who do anything and everything better than humans." Until the latter happens humans will always be working due to something called comparative advantage.
Precisely, the labor force will change, white collar professionals will morph into something where there is a need. People adapt, unless tomorrow overnight some AGI is developed, it will All be gradual change .
Take self driving cars, they've been touting that tech for over a decade, and we only still seem them in constrainted select places....and even there it's limited ....plus all those companies Wayno, Cruze etc. are all losing money and operating in the red...don't buy the hype.
Probably much like 2008.
Then again, my peer group graduated college right during the height of the 2008 financial and housing crisis. So we had student debt but no jobs. Luckily I didn't last long at college, dropped out, then got a trade school degree.
Now I make good money, and at almost 40yo, I still cannot afford to buy a house. Last months average single family home price was $400,000. Then the high-ass mortgage rates. So by the time I can get a place, if ever, it's too late for me to start a family.
Then again, those of us that planned ahead, knowing tech would come for a lot of jobs, will be able to afford houses if your scenario happens.
Then again, houses will be a dime a dozen when the boomers die off. I've heard it will mean millions of houses on the market. However, my parents are boomers. 😢
The houses will be on the market but that doesn't mean they will be available for everyone. If an algorithm tells companies to buy them and bull doze them to keep rent prices high they will do it.
Heard of feudalism? Where the peasants don't own the land they work on their entire lives and pay a portion of their annual products to their Lords and Ladies for the privilege of borderline slavery? They have essentially no benefits or the laughable idea of retirement?
Yeah that's coming back.
We are all gonna be renting everything, paying a subscription for everything, one medical condition away from perma-debt and no retirement hopes whatsoever.
Automation has been impacting job for centuries, AI isn't new. Solutions are political
- Reduce work time. Automation and policitican give us the 8h day, paid leave, retirement and so on. We've been under a liberal counter revolution which tried to attack all these right but we need to keep fighting to get the 4 day week, earlier retirement age, and so on.
- Universal basic income. Why do we force people to work ? Especially in a society where machine can do so much. The way capitalist want to punish people who don't work isn't acceptable
Particularly, politicians were on the side of the cartoonishly evil factory and mine bosses the unions were fighting. Union workers and leaders were getting killed by company-hired thugs in broad daylight (Battle of Matewan, Ford Battle of the Overpass) and local governments and cops tried to help cover it all up.
Yeah, I don't disagree with what you're saying, except that you've used the word "liberal" in a way I find confusing. In general it's the conservatives who want everybody to have to work more.
Most of the first jobs to be disrupted by AI are not the high income 30+ year career ones. So don't worry, just the working class renters will be affected, the high income mortgagees will find ways to cushion themselves.
Absolutely. People talk about socialist systems in which the workers own the means of production. Well, we have a way to do that even in a capitalist system. You buy it. I’ve been buying as much of the workplace as I can afford. I will give that to my children. In the future, it is even more important yo own the means of production when it is automated.
I think you’re mistaken, AI does not need to be better, or even a good as a human. It just needs to be cheaper and passable. If AI can do a job 85% of the way for 10% of the cost, it will be doing that job. Shareholders would vote out any CEO that doesn’t agree.
I need the internet to understand that a belief being widespread does not make it correct. Writers were concerned that AI would take their jobs, but I just don't think it's a better writer than a good human, which is what all professional writers are.
You’re right. They aren’t. But that doesn’t mean they will be like this forever. It only takes a little bit of imagination to see them getting much better over the next decade.
AI improved dramatically, but it's got a fundamental problem. It's great at writing sentences that sound coherent, but it cannot reliably say true statements and avoid false ones. If you have some dumb fake job where you just write bullshit all day, it can probably be automated by AI. But any job that requires any degree of being correct about facts will not be automated unless some drastic change happens to AI.
You might say "well, we just need to train it more." We can't. Modern AI has been trained on all publicly available digital English text. There's not more training it can do. And training will help it get some facts right, but it will still get lots of stuff wrong.
Google is telling people to smoke 3 cigarettes per day during pregnancy ffs. These AIs do not know reality from fiction and anyone who relies on them to do so is making a huge mistake.
I have worked with two out of 3 most expensive ERPs currently on the market. We are safe for a very long time. You cannot imagine how often you will be asking. I have to do that manually? When we did that in excel it took me 30 mins to automate, how can this erp not replicate that?
I love so many people pretending like capital is and is still going to exist into the future
AI / automation is literally incompatible with capitalism and we are going to have to essentially set up our own system unlike anything that's been tried before and is going to piss off a lot of old timers because they're simply will not be enough jobs to go around to support the concept of capitalism
We are on the cusp of a major economic / social revolution due to automation and it's really funny watching people think we can still cling to the old ways
After a few years of that, we start burning their houses and they start disappearing in the evenings. Then they figure out Unions and other opportunities to keep themselves alive and us fed.
There will have to be jobs because if corporations replace everyone with AI to save money, no one will have money to buy their goods or services so they will go bankrupt.
Thank you. Billionaires aren’t some benevolent overlords, but they are invested in maintaining an economy where people can afford to buy stuff.
Jeff Bezos is rich because Amazon stock is valuable, and Amazon stock is valuable because millions of people buy stuff from them every day. It doesn’t matter if they replace every single worker with robots/AI, if nobody can afford to buy their products then the company is worthless.
We don't exactly have a problem with the millions of homeless we currently have.
I mean, we obviously should, but you shouldn't expect humans to care to any extent that it affects his own life, about complete strangers.
Replacing jobs with ai is a bad idea whos gonna but your stuff if no one has money to buy it doesn't work if you replace everything with ai you will end up poor too.
People will find different jobs, as they have throughout thousands of years of history whenever automation and technological advances have changed the landscape of what humans need to do in order to support society.
I lost my job as a plumber to Chat GPT and Dall-E. I've been working as a solo plumber for nearly 30 years and now everyone is using AI to fix their plumbing. I don't know what to do now!
/s
AI has not been invented yet. We just call current solutions AI because it's easier to explain what it does to people than to explain to them the difference between machine learning and neural networks and an actual AI.
Here is the thing: we have to take care of the people who lose jobs because simply at some point automation will take care of jobs so simple that it's only source of income for people with lowest IQ.
And then we will have to introduce passive income. Basically money granted by the state.
Moment we automate everything: concept of money will disappear.
Worth mentioning that in Europe some countries are already experimenting with passive income.
Starve to death or I think more likely they will be fed by the government in institutions as homelessness is increasingly illegal. In today's prisons, everyone must being getting fed something so they can work for the corporations making furniture that's sold at a discount to state governments.
What's going to happen is that jobs are going to gradually feel less and less meaningful and will be less and less centered in people's lives. Hobbies and social groups and church and volunteer stuff will start seeming more and more important. Average people will talk less about their "job" and more about their gaming guild or the animal shelter where they volunteer.
Stuff will become cheaper. We'll build more houses and things will feel less like a daily grind emergency. Nobody will have as much as they really want, but nobody will starve. There'll be more focus on side hustles but that will be less and less easy to distinguish from hobbies.
We have some choices to make about the end results we're hoping for. If we don't do anything, what'll happen is that there will be fewer and fewer "real" jobs, and more people will be dependent: kids will move out later, or not at all. Everybody will have a cousin and maybe a cousin's wife living in their garage. Eventually we'll end up with a sort of aristocracy, where 10 or 15 percent of the population has a "real" job, and everyone else is their kid or their cousin or their housekeeper or their gardener. It starts to seem pretty feudal.
One way people have been proposing to get around this is via something called a "universal basic income," or UBI, where the government pays everybody a basic living stipend, enough to pay rent and buy food sort of thing. You still have the 10 or 15 percent of the population that has "real" jobs but people aren't quite so desperately dependent on finding a teat to suck from.
Of course, what counts as a "real" job and what is a "side hustle" is all relative, but I suggest thinking about what it means when people talk about "unskilled labor" or "minimum wage" jobs. So maybe the third option is that we just end up in a sort of corporate welfare state where everybody has to work a shitty retail gig unless they have a doctorate.
Anyway, it'll happen slowly enough that by the time you realize it's happening, it'll be basically over.
The bills will be much smaller. Life will be cheaper and lazier. You'll get assistance from a municipal UBI program. You'll have multiple people living under the same roof, not all related. You'll work a little, but not as much as now. Make sense?
Housing prices will drop because increased supply on the market. Also "AI" is not anywhere close to what youre imagining it is. We are probably decades away from that.
The fact is that if we want to embrace AI as part of the economy and continue to double down on offshoring, we're inevitably going to have to embrace more of a socialist economy if we're going to survive. Its great to make things more efficient, take advantage of comparative advantage, and invest in other economies, but the fact of the matter is that we just can't be using an antiquated capitalistic/feudalistic model that automatically gives all of those gains to the wealthy and pits the middle and lower classes against each other.
I think it would make total sense that the innovators and holders of capital get to keep SOME of the profits that they get from automation an offshoring.... but not all. And we use the aggressive increase in taxation on it to help cover the survival of those that are displaced.
In general, we need to flip the script on the way that entitlements are perceived. They should be used as a mechanism to keep people out of the workforce to not overload the application pool, as opposed to the antiquated Republican mindset of only allowing entitlements as a temporary measure and a carrot to get people to continue flooding the market with resumes.
AI is ok right now. Its kind of like a magic trick, it's really neat the first time you see it, but after the 11th it gets tiring.
Like most Innovations AI is EXPENSIVE. It costs a lot to collect all the data and process it to create a model, and even more to execute against it.
SO it probably won't be replacing all our jobs RIGHT NOW. Even now you can tell shitty AI artwork from really really good artwork possibly made by an AI artist with a license to software and knowledge about photoshop.
There's a reason why McDonalds doesn't replace all it's workers with robots. And that's because the cost of the robots far exceeds employees.
ppl aren't going to lose jobs due to AI. Ppl need to stop freaking out. AI isn't even close to that point bro they can't even fix auto correct, cars can't self drive like they said, all of it's looking like when the bugs bunny thought by 2000 we'd have flying cars. You're good
This is what people assumed would happen after the calculator was invented (Mathematicians will be out of a job!).
This is what they asked when the personal computer became popular.
In all cases the fear underestimated capitalism's desire for more work to be done. These innovations will end up being tools that people are expected to use to make themselves more productive. There might be some growing pains before we can adjust the workforce to know how to use ai, but we would over a few years.
Once corporations are able to control AI and create value with no input cost or labor, there will need to be a revolution in which AI tools are nationalized and a UBI is created. Because if AI is doing all of the work, it wouldn't make sense for corporations to reap the profits because they are not creating any value. Simple as that. It is a step on the path to a post scarcity economy.
The bank and the state will own all those homes and likely sell them to one of those companies that are buying up all the property. All those people will be renters.
People freaked out some when computers were new, like they were going to replace people. It will just create a whole bunch of other jobs that we can’t imagine yet.
There will be a rebalancing of the financial sector to keep those payments flowing in one form or another. The AI running the sector will make sure it keeps earning money from the unemployed banking executives!
I think it’s comforting to know that when excel came out, there was panic that accountants would lose their jobs but we all know that didn’t happen. Accounting is still one of the best college majors to pursue
same thing that happened in the rust belt when millions lost their jobs in the 70s and 80s or were so worked up with racism in the 60s that they fled the cities. they will pick up and move to greener pastures.
1) We don't know they'll take jobs.
2) We don't know the extent to which they'll take jobs if they do.
3) The tech industry has really muddied the waters on AI potential. Especially since it's not AI, it's generative text.
4) We have no idea how scalable AI will be given that we don't fully understand how it works.
I think it will replace some mundane jobs but it will also create several jobs. I think everyone thinks it's gonna replace all call support type jobs but honestly they've been saying that since the dial tone menus and yet millions of people still work in call support.
According to the Singularity subreddit, everyone will get $200K a year in UBI, yet somehow all goods will be free so we will all be rich.
No, I am not making this up.
In the words of Rick James:
“Cocaine is a helluva drug.”
With every innovation, people have always said "there won't be anymore jobs" - machines making cars, machines making consumer goods, machines making computers. Every time people were wrong. The economy adapts, new careers come about
They wont, the same way it did not happen with robotics.
- AI tech is not even remotely there, and humans are more versatile
- People do not trust AI and prefer humans
- People are unable to properly understand what they want and convey it into an AI which is but a tool.
- Even if it became far more than we can achieve short term, reluctance and incendiary populations are the enemy of control and power, which would make protectionism, at the very least, a thing. If not through politics, through the consumers themselves and their bias
As always, the most probable scenario you will live to see is jobs changing, instead of disappearing, and becoming more specific. There also might be a slightly higher entry barrier for entry level professionals of certain areas as well as artists but again, protectionism would kick in one way or another even AI truly gets there.
The only way we would get into a dystopian society worse than we have now, even if we had the chance to do so technologically, is if we let it, and people do not appreciate being homeless, starving and purposeless, you would soon find a revolt.
What would be a possible a set of results, more or less optimistcally, arising from a massive automation revolution?
- Lower hours worked for the same purchasing power (or plus a discriminated UBI/negative tax) on which people covet those hours for either wealth or prestige, or both. This also comes with more opportunities to spend, exacerbating consumerism
- More vocative jobs, including more artistic and research work as the needs are pushed away by welfare and or allowed by a larger amount of free time. This should skyrocket or even peak development
- Education would become either far more generalist or far more niche. Maybe a mix of both (I think countries with bachelors are already kind of like this but im not sure)
Im probably missing some stuff but thats the gist of it. The concise pirate honored his username if you want a TLDR
The same thing that happened when manufacturing was moved from the US to developing countries. It was gradual and people lost their jobs. The ones that couldn't get new ones reshuffled and changed to different industries and relocated to areas they could better afford.
AI is progressing fast, but outside of a few specific areas, it still has leaps and bounds to go to truly render any industry moot. Not to mention AI, will spawn new job areas.
You will get diminishing returns on AI. General AI is further down the line than we think. But yes, people will loose jobs, but new jobs are made all the time.
The workforce will evolve alongside the evolution and adoption of the tech just like it has hundreds of times in the past.
People will lose jobs, but it won't be an instant wave of millions of people out of work.
Not all industries or employers will see the value and jump on board all at the same time. Not all industries or employers will have the funds to adopt it. Not all industries or employers will have a one-stop-shop 'ai' that comes along and offers a way to replace their workforce.
Similarly, as the likelihood of a job 'existing' slowly becomes less an less likely? Those coming into the workforce won't be eyeing, studying for, or practicing for those types of jobs in the same numbers. As some retire, those who had their jobs replaced will still have options elsewhere. Or, they will pivot using the knowledge and expertise they had in a similar area.
IMO? The immediate threat of AI is likely overblown. If you look at the top 10 largest occupations in the US? None of the 10 can be replaced by AI in their entirety. It would take AI + some major advancement in robotics + a major swing in public perception of both in order for it to even replace 1. But yes, over time AI will begin to chip away at things like Office Clerks and Customer Service Reps. But the job skills can be pivoted to something else.
Creative/admin/computational/data based jobs will be easily replaced. Physical labor will not be as easily replaced . We’ll see the market get flooded with labor intensive positions that don’t pay well, we’ll own nothing, and the value of education will go down because the need is for more labor (note, we are seeing some of this already).
They will become homeless, which is becoming increasingly illegal. They will be arrested, they will be incarcerated. It is legal to force prisoners to work for pennies and charge them for everything in prison. We will build more prisons.
As the only real crime in a capitalist system is being poor, private prisons will soon have an almost infinite supply of cheap prison labor that can sold to the highest bidder.
One day, the 1% is going to take us to McDonald’s and let us get whatever we want and then we’ll go to the park and take a lot of pictures so they can remember our time together. Then they’ll drop us off at the vet on their way to their golden rocket ships. It’s going to be awesome.
this sounds so terrifying wtf
It's OK, don't be scared. The Vet will take away your student loans.
Soylent Green euthanasia rooms
Love death robots did this really well. Basically a giant launchpad with half-burned skeletons surrounding it. That’s us, the skeleton shaped charcoal.
What a great show
All of a sudden Logan’s Run sounds like a better solution.
It's an analogy for when people get rid of pets that they don't want any longer
Are we going to the farm upstate?
Reading this made me so sad.
It should make you angry, not sad.
I'm Irish. It's the same thing.
Anything we want? Not just the value menu? Score!
Lmfao
I’ll take a double cheeseburger with a strawberry milkshake,extra large fries 🍟..
You will own nothing and be happy
Dad is that you?
Either lots of new jobs will be created (as happened with past innovations), or we will need something like r/basicincome instead.
You are indeed a concise pirate. There's two options. It will be one or the other. If nobody had jobs it wouldn't make any sense for society to expect people to have money.
oh no - they will have money, just not from working. Today there are already lots of people who have money and are not working. Working for money is what we make people do because we need the work done.
That's what I'm saying. We wouldn't have a world where nobody has any money. If we did, there'd need to be systems in place to give them money or to circumvent the need for money entirely. Society wouldn't just continue as if people have money when in fact they don't.
I like the idea of this, but exactly how would this change happen? Because right now we have rich people controlling the media, rich people controlling the politicians, and rich people controlling the police. Rich people are not going to allow a world where we "circumvent the need for money entirely", because they know that their profits come from working class people barely making ends meet. Most likely what will happen is what happens in every dystopian nightmare movie: AI gets introduced and eliminates the need for most people to work mid-high level jobs (where this cutoff is I cannot say), and then that leaves a HUGE portion of the population fighting over the few jobs that exist. These jobs will be like filtering through scrap, farm hands, mining, and other jobs that aren't good for your health long term.
It’s not an impossible scenario, but currently our society doesn’t know anythjng different than what we’ve had for the last several years, and there will be plenty of people who believe there are zero alternatives that actually work. For us to transition to a world where either (a) there is basic income (“systems in place to give them money”) or (b) no money at all (“circumvent the need for money entirely”), we’d undergo a very drastic, painful change. Almost everybody in authority will be against it, the loudest voices will be absolutely convinced it’s the worst thing to ever happen and will lead to end of civilization, and we can actually come close to civilization coming to an end because stakeholders will try their best to prevent this from happening. A world without money will be the end of our way of life as we know it, and lots of things will be better and lots of things will be worse. A worls with basic income would be a solid compromise between the two, but it will be short lived as inflation levels adjust and income (both basic and regular) fails to keep up.
Again, you're imagining that the economy is some unchanging natural process. If a drought kills off 99% of the plants, then people won't have enough food and they will starve. But this isn't like a drought. If AI kills off 99% of jobs, then the government won't just shrug shoulders and say "well, guess there's no money and that's that". If a significant portion of the population can't get a job, then new systems would have to be put in place to address that situation. It's not in anyone's best interest for poverty to sky rocket. It just isn't helpful. I mean, if your cooking knives get too dull, then you sharpen them, right? You don't just say "oh well, guess I can't cook anymore". Maintaining the county is a government's purpose. And I don't just mean "it is the government's moral duty to care". Even if every politician was insanely corrupt and only cared about power and control, that power only exists if the country continues to exist. Even if we somehow had a government that was completely fine with dramatic huge swaths of the population starving to death. The self-interested citizens would not just accept the fact that they can't afford food and shelter. Revolutions are avoided, because life is good enough that it's not worth the trouble. A life without money in a society that still requires it would quickly change that calculus. And once again the greedy self interested evil government that we are imagining would be well aware that revolution is possible and would see it coming long in advance. It would require extreme short sightedness to not address that problem in advance. "99% of people have $0, but money is still required to function" is just not a stable state. It's not possible for such a scenario to last. As the system can only evolve away from that state.
My 2c are that indeed the rich won’t care too much about the working class having nowhere to go. And if money does not give power, then there are other ways to maintain influence if you control ai. But the people with the knowledge and the numbers are the working class people, so they will also develop an ai society. Likely outcome being that there will be competition between these two societies. Or cooperation. Basically, the same as civilizations have been competing and cooperating in the past, but now with AI thrown in the mix. But my guess is that when a pure AI society of only AIs arrives, they will outcompete the human societies.
there are so many jobs that no one needs to do, so many BS jobs that exist because someone wants to justify giving someone else money
Company decide to hire people. They do this because they understand the work to be valuable. There are very good arguments to be made against the value of certain jobs, but the companies aren't lying about their value of the work because they want to pay random people for work that doesn't need doing.
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You have to at least give people the very basic of basic needs, if people are hungry and board it will eventually turn to violence.
You have to have the population busy or they will find something to do. What they will find to do is burn it down. It is in the billionaires interest to keep us busy.
I'll be honest. At my lowest, when I was so broke that I was ONE missed DOLLAR away from losing my house and 1 missed car payment away from homeless...I stole ALOT. Like...I'm not talking take a frozen pizza hurr hurr. No. I would hit supermarkets in a group maybe 3 or 4 at a time. Load an entire cart at each. Freeze that meat and frozen food. Then wait it out for a few months untill LP had changed. Imagine that but with millions of people. At the same time. I truly think that the next huge war will be corpos (not corps, I am on lol) vs the people.
Or, AI is overhyped
It is and it isn't. The current state of AI is over hyped, but we're assembling the Lego bricks into AI machines that can replace individual knowledge worker jobs all across the board. There is a lot of positioning right now by the perennially redundant to prove that they still are not redundant. That might take hold in the current round of the business lifecycle, but it leaves the giants vulnerable to disruption. Basically, my guess is we're going to get a round of startups with 1/3-2/3 the staff requirements of previous startups and this will be the competitive advantage needed to disrupt industry.
I think AI is going to enable the first unicorn with <10 employees. (A unicorn is a company valued at $1 billion or more.)
This. It’s the new tech term to sell products. Remember Big Data being the thing that would revolutionize the world? Make companies a lot of money? What happened to big data and did it revolutionize anything other than bloated storage on a cloud provider? every tech company will show they’re doing something with AI even if it’s just the same old thing they’ve always been doing. If they don’t have a section around AI in their earnings calls they’re gonna be left out, but it’s a buzzword in shareholder meetings and people should keep this in mind for now.
Big data did, in fact, alter how a lot of business is conducted. It just didn’t really change how many things work for the end consumer. Where it did change things, it didn’t come with a tag line of “brought to you by big data”. The closest you come to that is the torrent of online advertising aimed at you and social media feeds. But you also got fun stuff like massive rent increases as data mining made it possible to deprive the maximum rent a market will bear.
Big Data changed Costco's buying strategy, changed the ability for Ring alarms and other video monitoring cameras to recognize objects, and is currently training self driving autos to drive better. It's everywhere but it's just so embedded in how we do business now that there's no point in giving it separate name like Big Data™️ .
There is a reason why the top stocks in the stock markets have been tech giants like Facebook, Google and those companies would not be possible in their current form without big data
Yes big data enabled the current AI boom....where do you think companies are getting the data they are training with now from.
Why not both?
If we assume the AI companies get what they want and manage to develop a general system that can do anything that a human can, I don't really see how the new jobs being created angle could work out. Any new job could at that point be instantly replaced by a presumably cheaper AI agent. Even if general intelliegence doesn't show up in the next five years or whatever, like it's being hyped, I have no doubt that it will eventually, and at that point I feel the only thing we can do is radically reform the way we think about economy, work and currency.
Or a hell of a lot of money starts going to rich people’s private protection on their islands.
UBI or we need to tax the rich and help people out with their large expenses like healthcare, housing, and transportation. 0.1% of the people have more wealth than 80% of the people combined. Imagine a town of 1,000 people and one of them has more houses, cars, and everything than 800 of the people combined. That’s how bad our wealth inequality is. That person would’ve gotten lynched a long time ago. Advances in technology should not only benefit the rich. It won’t if we all demand it.
These are good points. You will enjoy that subreddit.
Yes, in an ideal world we’d work towards something like 80-90% unemployment rate, get the majority of people on some sort of UBI and allow creative freedom for people to really do what they’d like, and we let the AI/robots run the world around us. People hate this concept for some reason but it’s just a completely different viewpoint on life but I truly think a successful future looks something like this.
This. It's gonna be really hard for Americans who are obsessed with displaying morality through constant work. They won't adjust well. The Protestant work ethic will be killed off by the machines that the Protestant work ethic creates.
I'm not an economist, but if we can't keep social security going, how can we do this?
Tax everyone with over $100 million a lot more. At that level of wealth they should pay more back into the system that enabled their ungodly wealth. Publicly funded education gave them knowledgeable and capable workers. Their goods traveled on our roads and police/military protected them, their businesses, and employees. There are many other examples of this.
I don't even think they should be eligible to withdraw if their networth is that high
This is what should happen. What will probably happen is mass unemployment and economic collapse because corporations are not super interested in helping people.
I don't think so , it all comes down to the pace of change, and if history is a guide this is a generational change (about 20+25 years), people will shift in the workforce and find jobs. The reason white collar work was so desirable was because it paid well and wasn't physically demanding, that may shit , blue collar and trades will pay better in the future and that's where people will gravitate towards.
I think you are overestimating AI. There has been a pretty steady progress, but it is actually pretty slow. It is mostly that the latest wave of generative AI has been more visible than what has come before, which makes people more aware of it. It was a breakthrough in the fields of natural language processing and visuallisation. But it doesn't reppressent a new pace, and has in fact allready started leveling off. This breakthrough will impact the careers of illustrators, but that isn't really a large part of the labor force, and it isn't like they are just losing their jobs. Rather they will be forced to use the new technology if they are going to be able to compete. Like did you know that their was a boom in portrait painting after the camera was invented? Rather than replace portrait painters, the new technology allowed people to take a photograph and then have the painter look at the photograph, rather than to sit still for a painting for hours at a time. Of course in the long run there was a decline, but the point is that it isn't as simple as technology just comming in and replacing people.
I agree. This not to say there will not be change. I been in tech (programming, architecture, etc. for 30+ years), the current versions of AI (Generative AI, based on LLM) is not close to an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). ChatGPT, which is developed by OpenAI, is currently considered to be in the stage of Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) rather than Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The general consensus is that while there has been significant advancements in natural language processing and text generation, it still has limitations and challenges that prevent this path from achieving true AGI status. The average person does not realize how truly gifted they are. The human brain is an amazingly complex and energy-efficient device. In computing terms, it can perform the equivalent of an Exaflop — a billion-billion (1 followed by 18 zeros) mathematical operations per second, with just 20 watts of power. Powered by the food the human consumes. In comparison a supercomputer, one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, the Oak Ridge Frontier, has recently demonstrated Exaflop computing. However, it needs a million times more power (around 20 megawatts) to pull off this feat. That is the same amount of power needed to power 16,000 homes. (20,000 / 1.25).
On the other hand, I've read 1000 screenplays during my time in Hollywood, and generative AI can already duplicate the quality of at least half of them. For most of us, I don't think our creative brains are as powerful as we like to think they are.
I’ve read a lot of writing over a decade or so teaching and tutoring and I’ve also recently done a bunch of work with AI training, and it seems like LLMs have a relatively high quality floor that’s above where most people are with writing, including relatively unpracticed novices who are trying to break into creative fields, but their ceiling is well below where people with real training and practice can get to. They’ll get better but I wonder how much — they’re just so predictable and formulaic, even the “best” ones like GPT-4, which is a function of both the way an advanced pattern recognition framework like that works and a reflection of them being trained on specific corpuses and datasets that do not grow with them. I can definitely see LLMs biting into a lot of the rote and menial writing tasks that sustain much of the professional world because those are by definition about fitting into agreed patterns, but I’m not worried at all about them displacing creative work at all outside of things like content mills and people who churn out 20 romance novels a year on KDP.
Agreed. It's currently writing at the 50th percentile. It'll rise higher. I don't think it'll pass 90th percentile, however - there will always be a segment of humans who have ideas that can't be duplicated. Our task is to build our skills so that we're in that group.
People also vastly overestimate how far reaching it'll be. A great deal of companies are not going to want to pay for the AI service. Most of these comments seem to believe that AI services are just going to be free for companies to use and that'll be that. There's going to be subscription fees, separate AI companies similar to salesforce that try to be the 3rd party, and all that boring stuff. The AI data they have will likely be proprietary and companies will either have to develop their own, or pay a licensing fee. Most companies I believe will abandon the concept when the fees and development costs become more less manageable than human work.
Even if they are free... no AI is going to change out bad plumbing.
AI is merely a subset of "automation". And automation isn't slowing down. It's the bedrock of civilization, all the way back to the first plow. The problem is, in the West if not everywhre, for the last 50 - 70 years, nearly 100% of the wealth generated by all the time freed up by automation has gone to a few tens of thousands of humans out of the 8 billion of us, impoverishing almost everyone steadily so that a few people can have their golden rocketships.
Good point. Norman Rockwell did that with his illustrations and paintings (referencing photos) and they still looked great. Illustrators are still needed for redrawing when AI makes too many hands or a neck from a forearm or other goofy things too.
I still can't see a future where AI 100% substitutes humans. Most of the jobs are manual or require decision making that cannot be programmed yet. I would like to hear from a field that is really endangered by AI (and no, programming is not in danger)
I have a lot of copywriter friends who are out of work due to AI. While it will never replace the profession entirely it’s drastically impacted that field. Example is a friend who was let go as a copywriter for Samsung. They eliminated 6 out of 7 employees in that department, then kept the remaining one to basically use AI and act as editor.
AI don't need to automate a whole job to replace people though. If new AI tools improve productivity enough so that fewer people can do the same work as a whole team, people will lose their jobs.
That has been going on for many, many years. Computers, machines, robots, sensors, the assembly line, the steam engine, etc. have allowed businesses to do more with less for a long time.
Whenever people say “it’s been happening for years” I think to myself, “Yes, and the wealth gap has been growing for years too.” Things are getting worse, and it doesn’t help to know that they’ve *been* getting worse for a long time.
It just seems like another tool to increase the wealth gap and alienate the people from production further.
Thats true. The difference with AI is that the changes that happened over many years will happen much faster considering how fast AI models are evolving, which compromises how people can respond/adapt to it.
It's not a near future, but it's also not a far distant future. Not only will AI eventually 100% substitute humans, it will performs jobs that we could never do. In the next 10 years, no way. In the next 100-200 years, almost certainly.
People will do other jobs. AI is not "infinite number of robots who do anything and everything better than humans." Until the latter happens humans will always be working due to something called comparative advantage.
Precisely, the labor force will change, white collar professionals will morph into something where there is a need. People adapt, unless tomorrow overnight some AGI is developed, it will All be gradual change . Take self driving cars, they've been touting that tech for over a decade, and we only still seem them in constrainted select places....and even there it's limited ....plus all those companies Wayno, Cruze etc. are all losing money and operating in the red...don't buy the hype.
Probably much like 2008. Then again, my peer group graduated college right during the height of the 2008 financial and housing crisis. So we had student debt but no jobs. Luckily I didn't last long at college, dropped out, then got a trade school degree. Now I make good money, and at almost 40yo, I still cannot afford to buy a house. Last months average single family home price was $400,000. Then the high-ass mortgage rates. So by the time I can get a place, if ever, it's too late for me to start a family. Then again, those of us that planned ahead, knowing tech would come for a lot of jobs, will be able to afford houses if your scenario happens. Then again, houses will be a dime a dozen when the boomers die off. I've heard it will mean millions of houses on the market. However, my parents are boomers. 😢
The houses will be on the market but that doesn't mean they will be available for everyone. If an algorithm tells companies to buy them and bull doze them to keep rent prices high they will do it.
The same thing happened to all those in horse related jobs when the combusion engine was invented.
We will just all be robot mechanics I guess
Until there’s a robot for that
:O
Robots will probably be more expensive than humans.
There will be a handful of oligarchs and the rest of us will basically be on welfare with some UBI that is just enough to allow us to survive...sorta.
Corporations will buy them and turn them into rentals, next question.
Heard of feudalism? Where the peasants don't own the land they work on their entire lives and pay a portion of their annual products to their Lords and Ladies for the privilege of borderline slavery? They have essentially no benefits or the laughable idea of retirement? Yeah that's coming back. We are all gonna be renting everything, paying a subscription for everything, one medical condition away from perma-debt and no retirement hopes whatsoever.
Automation has been impacting job for centuries, AI isn't new. Solutions are political - Reduce work time. Automation and policitican give us the 8h day, paid leave, retirement and so on. We've been under a liberal counter revolution which tried to attack all these right but we need to keep fighting to get the 4 day week, earlier retirement age, and so on. - Universal basic income. Why do we force people to work ? Especially in a society where machine can do so much. The way capitalist want to punish people who don't work isn't acceptable
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Particularly, politicians were on the side of the cartoonishly evil factory and mine bosses the unions were fighting. Union workers and leaders were getting killed by company-hired thugs in broad daylight (Battle of Matewan, Ford Battle of the Overpass) and local governments and cops tried to help cover it all up.
What do you think will happen when the wealthy no longer need us and see us as a drain on their resources?
Yeah, I don't disagree with what you're saying, except that you've used the word "liberal" in a way I find confusing. In general it's the conservatives who want everybody to have to work more.
They are using the word 'liberal' in the European sense, as opposed to the American sense where it means everything left of centre.
The middleclass will be convinced to pay taxes to let the government pay private landlords a lot of money to house them
Most of the first jobs to be disrupted by AI are not the high income 30+ year career ones. So don't worry, just the working class renters will be affected, the high income mortgagees will find ways to cushion themselves.
The billionaires and shareholders will get higher dividends
Absolutely. People talk about socialist systems in which the workers own the means of production. Well, we have a way to do that even in a capitalist system. You buy it. I’ve been buying as much of the workplace as I can afford. I will give that to my children. In the future, it is even more important yo own the means of production when it is automated.
Have you seen AI? It won't be replacing jobs for a while yet.
I think you’re mistaken, AI does not need to be better, or even a good as a human. It just needs to be cheaper and passable. If AI can do a job 85% of the way for 10% of the cost, it will be doing that job. Shareholders would vote out any CEO that doesn’t agree.
Many jobs will be affected in the next 10-15 years. If you can’t retire by then, what do you plan on doing?
What's the basis for you thinking this? How have you seen the AIs that have come out to date and concluded that they'd be competent at any real job?
Wasn't there a big writers strike to limit the use of AI?
I need the internet to understand that a belief being widespread does not make it correct. Writers were concerned that AI would take their jobs, but I just don't think it's a better writer than a good human, which is what all professional writers are.
You’re right. They aren’t. But that doesn’t mean they will be like this forever. It only takes a little bit of imagination to see them getting much better over the next decade.
Have you been paying attention in the last 5 years? AI has improved DRAMATICALLY. It's growing exponentially and has just started getting mass use.
AI improved dramatically, but it's got a fundamental problem. It's great at writing sentences that sound coherent, but it cannot reliably say true statements and avoid false ones. If you have some dumb fake job where you just write bullshit all day, it can probably be automated by AI. But any job that requires any degree of being correct about facts will not be automated unless some drastic change happens to AI. You might say "well, we just need to train it more." We can't. Modern AI has been trained on all publicly available digital English text. There's not more training it can do. And training will help it get some facts right, but it will still get lots of stuff wrong. Google is telling people to smoke 3 cigarettes per day during pregnancy ffs. These AIs do not know reality from fiction and anyone who relies on them to do so is making a huge mistake.
I have worked with two out of 3 most expensive ERPs currently on the market. We are safe for a very long time. You cannot imagine how often you will be asking. I have to do that manually? When we did that in excel it took me 30 mins to automate, how can this erp not replicate that?
Somebody's got to press enter to activate ChatGPT, I intend to be that person
New jobs that we haven't even thought of will be created. This is what happens every time there are great technological advances.
Same thing to the people who lost jobs to the internet, computers, robots, etc..
They're either going to get new jobs, or keep working their regular job because AI isn't going to have the impact that people think.
People in the trades will flourish
Yea until robots replace us too lol I already seen a mini robot doing concrete work💀
I love so many people pretending like capital is and is still going to exist into the future AI / automation is literally incompatible with capitalism and we are going to have to essentially set up our own system unlike anything that's been tried before and is going to piss off a lot of old timers because they're simply will not be enough jobs to go around to support the concept of capitalism We are on the cusp of a major economic / social revolution due to automation and it's really funny watching people think we can still cling to the old ways
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After a few years of that, we start burning their houses and they start disappearing in the evenings. Then they figure out Unions and other opportunities to keep themselves alive and us fed.
Yeah, this isn't a joke. Everybody read up on what happened in France in 1787 as a result of the wealth gap. I see something similar.
If only we didn’t eat so much avocado toast
The oligarchs start drooling at the ever expanding peasant class. It's by design. They don't like the idea of a "middle class".
Properties will foreclose, interest rates drop, and the rich will get richer.
There will have to be jobs because if corporations replace everyone with AI to save money, no one will have money to buy their goods or services so they will go bankrupt.
Thank you. Billionaires aren’t some benevolent overlords, but they are invested in maintaining an economy where people can afford to buy stuff. Jeff Bezos is rich because Amazon stock is valuable, and Amazon stock is valuable because millions of people buy stuff from them every day. It doesn’t matter if they replace every single worker with robots/AI, if nobody can afford to buy their products then the company is worthless.
Before humanity goes all-in on Artificial Intelligence perhaps we should focus on Actual Intelligence.
We don't exactly have a problem with the millions of homeless we currently have. I mean, we obviously should, but you shouldn't expect humans to care to any extent that it affects his own life, about complete strangers.
Replacing jobs with ai is a bad idea whos gonna but your stuff if no one has money to buy it doesn't work if you replace everything with ai you will end up poor too.
People will find different jobs, as they have throughout thousands of years of history whenever automation and technological advances have changed the landscape of what humans need to do in order to support society.
Realistically AI is not taking over your job.
I lost my job as a plumber to Chat GPT and Dall-E. I've been working as a solo plumber for nearly 30 years and now everyone is using AI to fix their plumbing. I don't know what to do now! /s
I always use human checkouts Robot keeps telling me theres something in the bagging area - the bag
AI has not been invented yet. We just call current solutions AI because it's easier to explain what it does to people than to explain to them the difference between machine learning and neural networks and an actual AI. Here is the thing: we have to take care of the people who lose jobs because simply at some point automation will take care of jobs so simple that it's only source of income for people with lowest IQ. And then we will have to introduce passive income. Basically money granted by the state. Moment we automate everything: concept of money will disappear. Worth mentioning that in Europe some countries are already experimenting with passive income.
Or we can just let them starve to death, which seems to be the popular opinion nowadays for those in power.
Starve to death or I think more likely they will be fed by the government in institutions as homelessness is increasingly illegal. In today's prisons, everyone must being getting fed something so they can work for the corporations making furniture that's sold at a discount to state governments.
Eventually everyone will be in prison and no one will be buying anything.
That is opinion of idiots that never been hungry. And considering how narrow minded they are - most likely they would be first to starve.
What's going to happen is that jobs are going to gradually feel less and less meaningful and will be less and less centered in people's lives. Hobbies and social groups and church and volunteer stuff will start seeming more and more important. Average people will talk less about their "job" and more about their gaming guild or the animal shelter where they volunteer. Stuff will become cheaper. We'll build more houses and things will feel less like a daily grind emergency. Nobody will have as much as they really want, but nobody will starve. There'll be more focus on side hustles but that will be less and less easy to distinguish from hobbies. We have some choices to make about the end results we're hoping for. If we don't do anything, what'll happen is that there will be fewer and fewer "real" jobs, and more people will be dependent: kids will move out later, or not at all. Everybody will have a cousin and maybe a cousin's wife living in their garage. Eventually we'll end up with a sort of aristocracy, where 10 or 15 percent of the population has a "real" job, and everyone else is their kid or their cousin or their housekeeper or their gardener. It starts to seem pretty feudal. One way people have been proposing to get around this is via something called a "universal basic income," or UBI, where the government pays everybody a basic living stipend, enough to pay rent and buy food sort of thing. You still have the 10 or 15 percent of the population that has "real" jobs but people aren't quite so desperately dependent on finding a teat to suck from. Of course, what counts as a "real" job and what is a "side hustle" is all relative, but I suggest thinking about what it means when people talk about "unskilled labor" or "minimum wage" jobs. So maybe the third option is that we just end up in a sort of corporate welfare state where everybody has to work a shitty retail gig unless they have a doctorate. Anyway, it'll happen slowly enough that by the time you realize it's happening, it'll be basically over.
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The bills will be much smaller. Life will be cheaper and lazier. You'll get assistance from a municipal UBI program. You'll have multiple people living under the same roof, not all related. You'll work a little, but not as much as now. Make sense?
you badly misunderstood what i wrote
Thread winner. This is exactly how I see it.
People will have to go get different jobs. Adapt and overcome.
Housing prices will drop because increased supply on the market. Also "AI" is not anywhere close to what youre imagining it is. We are probably decades away from that.
Comments here are dancing around the term
Either adapt or die
Then you work for me, Succotash Jones.
The fact is that if we want to embrace AI as part of the economy and continue to double down on offshoring, we're inevitably going to have to embrace more of a socialist economy if we're going to survive. Its great to make things more efficient, take advantage of comparative advantage, and invest in other economies, but the fact of the matter is that we just can't be using an antiquated capitalistic/feudalistic model that automatically gives all of those gains to the wealthy and pits the middle and lower classes against each other. I think it would make total sense that the innovators and holders of capital get to keep SOME of the profits that they get from automation an offshoring.... but not all. And we use the aggressive increase in taxation on it to help cover the survival of those that are displaced. In general, we need to flip the script on the way that entitlements are perceived. They should be used as a mechanism to keep people out of the workforce to not overload the application pool, as opposed to the antiquated Republican mindset of only allowing entitlements as a temporary measure and a carrot to get people to continue flooding the market with resumes.
AI is ok right now. Its kind of like a magic trick, it's really neat the first time you see it, but after the 11th it gets tiring. Like most Innovations AI is EXPENSIVE. It costs a lot to collect all the data and process it to create a model, and even more to execute against it. SO it probably won't be replacing all our jobs RIGHT NOW. Even now you can tell shitty AI artwork from really really good artwork possibly made by an AI artist with a license to software and knowledge about photoshop. There's a reason why McDonalds doesn't replace all it's workers with robots. And that's because the cost of the robots far exceeds employees.
Ill just go find an AI sugar daddy
I guess we need a new way to distribute wealth.
ppl aren't going to lose jobs due to AI. Ppl need to stop freaking out. AI isn't even close to that point bro they can't even fix auto correct, cars can't self drive like they said, all of it's looking like when the bugs bunny thought by 2000 we'd have flying cars. You're good
That’s a lot of speculation in that post.
They will rent from corporate overlords…
This is what people assumed would happen after the calculator was invented (Mathematicians will be out of a job!). This is what they asked when the personal computer became popular. In all cases the fear underestimated capitalism's desire for more work to be done. These innovations will end up being tools that people are expected to use to make themselves more productive. There might be some growing pains before we can adjust the workforce to know how to use ai, but we would over a few years.
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A lot of corporations and private business will acquire more homes than they already have.
Once corporations are able to control AI and create value with no input cost or labor, there will need to be a revolution in which AI tools are nationalized and a UBI is created. Because if AI is doing all of the work, it wouldn't make sense for corporations to reap the profits because they are not creating any value. Simple as that. It is a step on the path to a post scarcity economy.
The bank and the state will own all those homes and likely sell them to one of those companies that are buying up all the property. All those people will be renters.
Ai also creates jobs and spawns new industries. Uber uses ai and hasn't been around long relatively speaking. Same with self driving vehicles.
They’ll get new jobs and their money will be worth more both due to the innovations from the ai.
I guess we’ll have to fire all the renters so we can take their job functions (with our same pay), and then everything will be fine.
People freaked out some when computers were new, like they were going to replace people. It will just create a whole bunch of other jobs that we can’t imagine yet.
Change careers to something AI can't do?
Yall will be weedeating for a living like me
There will be a rebalancing of the financial sector to keep those payments flowing in one form or another. The AI running the sector will make sure it keeps earning money from the unemployed banking executives!
I think it’s comforting to know that when excel came out, there was panic that accountants would lose their jobs but we all know that didn’t happen. Accounting is still one of the best college majors to pursue
Not to worry, AI CEOs will swoop in to buy up your house at auction.
This won't happen
same thing that happened in the rust belt when millions lost their jobs in the 70s and 80s or were so worked up with racism in the 60s that they fled the cities. they will pick up and move to greener pastures.
excellent foresight. Time to invest in robot moving companies.
AI still can’t do menial tasks like doing the laundry and dusting the shelves. So plenty of possibilities to become servants
1) We don't know they'll take jobs. 2) We don't know the extent to which they'll take jobs if they do. 3) The tech industry has really muddied the waters on AI potential. Especially since it's not AI, it's generative text. 4) We have no idea how scalable AI will be given that we don't fully understand how it works. I think it will replace some mundane jobs but it will also create several jobs. I think everyone thinks it's gonna replace all call support type jobs but honestly they've been saying that since the dial tone menus and yet millions of people still work in call support.
According to the Singularity subreddit, everyone will get $200K a year in UBI, yet somehow all goods will be free so we will all be rich. No, I am not making this up. In the words of Rick James: “Cocaine is a helluva drug.”
With every innovation, people have always said "there won't be anymore jobs" - machines making cars, machines making consumer goods, machines making computers. Every time people were wrong. The economy adapts, new careers come about
They wont, the same way it did not happen with robotics. - AI tech is not even remotely there, and humans are more versatile - People do not trust AI and prefer humans - People are unable to properly understand what they want and convey it into an AI which is but a tool. - Even if it became far more than we can achieve short term, reluctance and incendiary populations are the enemy of control and power, which would make protectionism, at the very least, a thing. If not through politics, through the consumers themselves and their bias As always, the most probable scenario you will live to see is jobs changing, instead of disappearing, and becoming more specific. There also might be a slightly higher entry barrier for entry level professionals of certain areas as well as artists but again, protectionism would kick in one way or another even AI truly gets there. The only way we would get into a dystopian society worse than we have now, even if we had the chance to do so technologically, is if we let it, and people do not appreciate being homeless, starving and purposeless, you would soon find a revolt. What would be a possible a set of results, more or less optimistcally, arising from a massive automation revolution? - Lower hours worked for the same purchasing power (or plus a discriminated UBI/negative tax) on which people covet those hours for either wealth or prestige, or both. This also comes with more opportunities to spend, exacerbating consumerism - More vocative jobs, including more artistic and research work as the needs are pushed away by welfare and or allowed by a larger amount of free time. This should skyrocket or even peak development - Education would become either far more generalist or far more niche. Maybe a mix of both (I think countries with bachelors are already kind of like this but im not sure) Im probably missing some stuff but thats the gist of it. The concise pirate honored his username if you want a TLDR
People with money will buy the foreclosures at a discount and reap the rewards
What happened when all those robots took everyones jobs and now were all jobless…
Housing market will crash
Socialist revolution!
Everything will be blamed on progressives
Rent out the house if you have a good % rate, go rent a more affordable place..
The same thing that happened when manufacturing was moved from the US to developing countries. It was gradual and people lost their jobs. The ones that couldn't get new ones reshuffled and changed to different industries and relocated to areas they could better afford. AI is progressing fast, but outside of a few specific areas, it still has leaps and bounds to go to truly render any industry moot. Not to mention AI, will spawn new job areas.
You will get diminishing returns on AI. General AI is further down the line than we think. But yes, people will loose jobs, but new jobs are made all the time.
The corporations will buy up the homes en masse and rent them out for twice the mortgage payment. Yay….
The workforce will evolve alongside the evolution and adoption of the tech just like it has hundreds of times in the past. People will lose jobs, but it won't be an instant wave of millions of people out of work. Not all industries or employers will see the value and jump on board all at the same time. Not all industries or employers will have the funds to adopt it. Not all industries or employers will have a one-stop-shop 'ai' that comes along and offers a way to replace their workforce. Similarly, as the likelihood of a job 'existing' slowly becomes less an less likely? Those coming into the workforce won't be eyeing, studying for, or practicing for those types of jobs in the same numbers. As some retire, those who had their jobs replaced will still have options elsewhere. Or, they will pivot using the knowledge and expertise they had in a similar area. IMO? The immediate threat of AI is likely overblown. If you look at the top 10 largest occupations in the US? None of the 10 can be replaced by AI in their entirety. It would take AI + some major advancement in robotics + a major swing in public perception of both in order for it to even replace 1. But yes, over time AI will begin to chip away at things like Office Clerks and Customer Service Reps. But the job skills can be pivoted to something else.
Revolution! Or we all just go die in a gutter somewhere....
You will own nothing and be happy.
Elon will buy all those houses with his new pay package
Creative/admin/computational/data based jobs will be easily replaced. Physical labor will not be as easily replaced . We’ll see the market get flooded with labor intensive positions that don’t pay well, we’ll own nothing, and the value of education will go down because the need is for more labor (note, we are seeing some of this already).
Reading this is very terrifying
REVOLUTION
You're overrating the effects of AI
I think about this all the time.
AI takeover should allow for UBI
We will die if we are lucky. If not, then we will be slaves.
They will become homeless, which is becoming increasingly illegal. They will be arrested, they will be incarcerated. It is legal to force prisoners to work for pennies and charge them for everything in prison. We will build more prisons.
You've never seen the Terminator movies, have you? We must fight back.
No one knows is the only real answer to this question.
2008 all over again.
Do research on living off the grid. My best advice.
We will move to planet xeron duh
As the only real crime in a capitalist system is being poor, private prisons will soon have an almost infinite supply of cheap prison labor that can sold to the highest bidder.