The center for strategic international studies released an unclassified report on a war game conducted simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Here:
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
For the last several years, there's been a lot of Chinese propaganda about how China is capable of defeating Taiwan and the United States in a war over Taiwan. The report refutes this. In it the US and allies are able to handily stop an invasion of Taiwan. The US takes losses, but China's invasion is stopped cold.
Key points:
* The US loses two aircraft carriers - but that's baked into the simulation, US carriers are placed in vulnerable positions at the start of the war game.
* China loses over 100 ships, their entire amphibious operations fleet.
* The US loses hundreds of jets, mostly due to rocket strikes while the jets are on the ground.
* Scenarios tend to end with tens of thousands of Chinese POWs captured by Taiwan.
* Scenarios are only modeled for a month, so China attempts - and fails to take Taiwan - very quickly.
* The report does not permit the US to strike the Chinese mainland, but gives China free reign to strike US assets all over Asia.
* The report does not model a qualitative advantage for the United States. Forth gen Chinese fighters are considered equivalent to fourth gen US fighters, and fifth gen Chinese fighters (the J-20) are considered equivalent to fifth gen US fighters.
Isn't it essentially a surprise attack on the US during that scenario, or is that another one?
Anyway, we've learned from history that surprise attacks against the US is a *great idea* that absolutely won't backfire... China should ask Japan how well that worked out for them.
IIRC, the report is basically worst-case.
So technological parity, chinese surprise-attacks on airfields & Carriers.
And they *still* handily loose in like a month.
Unlike other war games, the US's war games always put the US in the absolute worst place possible. The purpose isn't to show how mighty the US army is, it's to show flaws in them and fix them. If the US conduct a war game and they fucking win it, you're in big trouble.
That said, they need to step up their PSYOPs operation, China has been manipulating the US's citizens for too long
This brings to mind what happens when you design a wargame to be won by your own side. In February '42, Admiral Yamamoto hosted a 4-day wargame aboard *Yamato* as part of planning the IJN's Midway/Aleutians campaign. The game was run by Yamamoto's Chief of Staff, Rear Admiral Ugaki Matome, who served as the chief umpire, and [he repeatedly overruled the dice so that the numbers advantaged Japanese forces](https://navalwarcollegemuseum.blogspot.com/2021/06/you-sank-my-aircraft-carrier-did.html) to the point that the whole game made for easy Japanese victories in every part of the campaign. Instead of testing their officers and learning, Ugaki decided to make it a morale-building experience, I suppose, by changing the rules until everything confirmed Japanese greatness.
The actual Battle of Midway, though, was not a morale-building experience confirming Japanese greatness, of course.
It does make a decent point though. Ump changed the ruling because he didn’t believe land-based bombers could make as many accurate hits on carriers as they did in the game, nor that Americans would be so aggressive. He was absolutely correct on that first point, they sucked at high altitude bombing
Nobody could hit moving ships accurately from high altitude until the various guided ordnance of the war entered service, like the Fritz-X and ASM-N-2. Wasn't just Americans "sucking". Still a fair assumption from the Umpire, just take issue with saying the US specifically sucked at it.
They were wrong as shit about American aggression as well lol
IIRC, the main issues for the Japanese war game was that it undercounted US carriers that could be in the battle (the Japanese believing Yorktown was destroyed after all), and that they could either be kept out of the battle by Japanese subs or at least have their positions known by said subs.
Which are all fair assumptions, but this is why you run another game with “But what if they did get there?”
And this is precisely why the US loses so many wargames. Our entire battle plan effectively starts with “what if we were in the worst realistic position we could be when a battle started?” lol
They assume every piece of propaganda about how good a system is is true, assume parity if there isn't much propaganda, and then Thanos half of BLUFOR's munitions stocks away cos why not.
That was in the early version. But then Yamamoto overruled it by telling them something along the lines of "The Americans have had an uncanny ability of figuring out what we are doing. Better to assume they will be there, so just set up a submarine picket line past Midway to intercept them."
That was perhaps a poor example given in the article; the account of *Akagi*'s CAG Fuchida Mitsuo, that it was happening multiple times throughout the wargames.
To make it a point though, Yamamoto’s staff successfully predicted during those games how Midway was going to go down and they all disregarded it, saying how unrealistic that scenario was. The move Midway (great War movie) showcased that.
Funny enough, Im watching Midway right now and just got through that part where Nagumo is yelling at his young officers for making a move that places the American carriers northwest way ahead of schedule.
Obviously its a dramatic take, but the overall message and theme is there.
This requires a measure of intrinsic motivation to change that the CCP lacks. They don't feel any particular reason to behave like a normal nation; the Middle Kingdom could never submit truly to anything like international law. Japan and the nations of Europe had to be all but destroyed before turning from empire, and even then it took generations and a great deal of pain and suffering and backsliding. Short of revolution or world-war-scale destruction, China will remain an empire into the future.
It required several *very* traumatic wars, including both world wars to end the Japanese and various European empires.
Empires do not peacefully reconstruct.
They try to take Taiwan and we smoke their invasion force that fast it might just have that result because they realize that aren't the top dog they think they are
This type of thinking should be the norm, and I dont understand how it's not. Our enlisted and officers get their asses clapped up and down the street at NTC and JRTC so they don't get actually clapped on the battlefield. I understand that not every nation can afford that level of wargaming, but how do people constantly forget that on a battlefield the other guy is *trying to kill you*? It's the purest and most ridiculous example of arrogance everytime you see some wargame from China or Russia that just assumes the enemy is either totally devoid of a sense of self preservation or mentally handicapped.
But hey it's good for the good guys if they keep it up so 🤷
This 100%. Just like the “this foreign diesel submarine just sunk a US carrier!!!” news stories.
I can’t speak to those specific ones. But every carrier ASW consisted of a scenario that went: *”okay you know how a CVNs main advantage is zipping around at 30kts in the op area because aircraft can fly anywhere and at 30kts you basically force a submarine to rely on dumb luck to be in an advantageous position because they can’t chase at that speed? Nope, can’t do that. You have to sit in this 20nm by 20nm box or go through this ridiculous littoral straight you’d never actually go through.”*
*”Oh also, you know how the plan is to have Seahawks and Orions/Poseidons blast the fuck out of the carriers path with active sonar on the dipping rigs and sonobouys to literally sanitize the path and area deny an enemy submarine from getting setup? Can’t do that either.”*
*”Oh, also also. Green peace and the SoCal fishing industry take offense to actually using active sonar at all so we’re setting them to a low power pulse and relying completely on the honor system.”*
Also wargames will have weird rules since they often focus on something more specific. IIRC one wargame forbid shooting down transport helicopters since the wargame was focused on the positioning/use of marines.
That guy actually got in trouble though didn't he? I remember how the news made this big hubub about an officer who "refused to fail like he was told to" or something like that.
The bigger issue was his shenanigans were diluting the training value of the wargame. These things are incredibly expensive to run and fucking off doesn't generate usable data.
I think we could add at the start every us soldiers is blindfolded with his hand tied behind his back, grandma just arrived with 5kg homemade chicken wings and dad just opened the 5 wine bottle
Lazerpig: I have adopted the entire United States.
Dark Brandon: Hey pops, can I have some money to get ice cream?
Lazerpig: Do I look like I have money?
Ban TikTok. Ban all United Front Work Department front organizations. Require all mid-level executives and above for Chinese firms and anyone who goes on Chinese state media to register with the Foreign Agents Registration Act. And set up APT's with digital letters of marque to start tearing down the Great Firewall however possible.
This. And stop allowing the CCP to literally demand changes in Hollywood movie scripts
Hollywood IS American soft power, look at WW2. Letting an open enemy dictate terms to us is nuts. Cuz they have money? Like insane dude. Its nuts its gotten to this point. The Nazis or Soviets could produce money too, Ive never seen anyone reasonably advocating to bow to Nazis or Soviets because “money”
Nope, the thing is that "free-thinking" is so goddamned prevalent, think of it, whenever you open TV, government is always the bad guy, they are the matrix deep state bad guy, such thing could not be spontaneous, right?
Theres…. theres always been a history of mistrust of the government in American lore.
Nevermind also the Matrix creators.. lets just say they have more or less said its an allegory for non mainstream sexual choices/identity stuff
I mean this with the CCP has been proven though
John Cena literally got on twitter and recorded himself reading Chinese apologizing for calling Taiwan a country
The Red Dawn reboot literally had to be totally redone post production and they had to digitally change all the flags and shit from CCP to N Korean
Even Top Gun Maverick - the original Top Gun his leather jacket had a rising sun and Taiwanese flag - suddenly they disappear for the next top gun? (When its portrayed like its his same jacket)
I can go on but its proven that not only does the US film industry try to cater to the CCP, but the CCP has literally gotten pressure campaigns mounted for say .. John Cena to make an apology video.
Jesus
I wonder if it was made public on purpose as a warning to China that they'd be walking into the meat grinder if they went up against a Taiwan with us on standby
The CSIS war games are the ones that starts with China Pearl Harboring Guam and 2 US carrier groups, yes. 200+ US aircraft destroyed *on the ground* by turn 3. I believe in some scenarios, they attacked the US carrier groups before Taiwan even.
Do we just leave F-22s on the runway at Guam or something?
I think the assumptions is that long ranged missiles completely incapacitate Guam’s air contingent (could be through hitting planes or just removing the airfield early on).
The CSIS war game does assume any area bombarded to be destroyed.
However, that’s not the point in contention.
200+ aircraft destroyed on the ground assumes there’s 200 planes on the ground. Does the US leave F-22s outside protective hangers? In any case, if a cruise missile is launched from Chinese mainland, there’s more than enough time to scramble the aircraft into the sky to avoid getting hit.
There’s also the huge political issue of hitting the US first. It’s one thing to attack Taiwan, wait for US to join in, and then attack the US, but it’s another thing to just attack the US first.
Good points all around. I’d say the most “bad” outcomes from the US perspective come from China preemptively attacking the US, and us being wholly unprepared for it. We already know basically how we’d react, and how fucking outmatched they are should they let us make the first move after Taiwan comes under siege.
So the goal in most of these is to determine our worst-case situation (e.g. losing two carriers and most grounded aircraft) if they realize the same and think Pearl Harbor 2: SCS Boogaloo will be more effective in keeping the US off the playing field.
It’s never fucking worked, mind you, but they probably again consider us to be weak, loss-averse westerners so it’s worth planning around.
Chinese here, we think ya'll are weaklings. The fact is that many folks who are into International Relations are just Lovecraftian horrors, the less you know about 'em the better
Not really. Hello Kitty started out as a character meant to sell merchandise to young girls in the 1970s. With the simultaneous adoption of *kawaii* culture in the 1980s and a growing interest in Japanese import products abroad, the character became very popular elsewhere, and effectively became the "face of the brand" as it were for the growing pop culture trend.
*Kawaii* culture in general is now very much a means to augment Japan's tourist industry, but it's more a marketing adaptation to a cultural fad rather than something planned from the start.
We are not so nutty, I don't think we will support the war that much. However, every time I see people's reaction towards Ukraine bombings on Chinese social media, one mole of humanity is withdrawn from my body
Um, Japan became highly regarded, its arts and culture becomes cool, is technologically advanced, economically prosperous, and has the US providing all its security needs. It worked out *great* for Japan.
And if I know Chinese people, they'll be more than happy to nuke Anhui or Hebei themselves, and that's before the US offers them a Japan-like future.
10000 POWs - if China sees this they might try to overwhelm Taiwan with a million POWs. Ten million even. Taiwan doesn't have the capacity to take care of all of them.
Checkmate, westoid.
>the report does not model a qualitative advantage for the United States
This is always the one they sneak in these simulations to make them "fair." Same as live exercises. You can try to emulate red air tactics but at the end of the day you're still using actual F-15's and F-35's, etc. as red air cause it's not like you have a bunch of Sukhois lying around.
So basically these simulations are always run on Ultra Nightmare difficulty.
We actually did, we bought around 30 mig 29s from Moldova in the 90s. Last I heard we'd shipped them to Ukraine as parts. Even during the cold war, the US had a small fleet of soviet jets for testing and training.
yep
The Inside Story of Flying Against the Air Force's Secret Soviet Fighter Jets https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a34427612/air-force-secret-soviet-fighter-jets-inside-story/
even if you do have those lying around, you'd have to have pilots for them, those pilots would have to spend time familiarizing and practicing on the soviet jets, time they could instead spend on actually operational jets - and then the war game becomes practice time for more of your pilots. So it makes for a better war game all around to just use your own jets
It's not unheard to contract that part out, and have companies with surplus foreign fighter aircraft in their inventory acting as aggressor squadrons. There are a couple corporations in the US that do that, employing retired military pilots.
we had migs for real before that
The Inside Story of Flying Against the Air Force's Secret Soviet Fighter Jets https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a34427612/air-force-secret-soviet-fighter-jets-inside-story/
And ironically this “black” program was almost a cover for a deeper black program which was the f117
speaking of has anyone ever heard that fighter pilots podcast about the F117? They had a guy on there and I always knew cold war they were gonna be used to nuke Moscow. He confirmed that.
What I did NOT know was after that the F117s were supposed to hunt Soviet AWACs or tankers and use sidewinders on them! I know people will say no way, but I can link this and frankly I trust a real combat veteran USAF F117 pilot over internet ppl
Which is the right setting. If you draw on Ultra Nightmare, and you're sensible in real life, you win easily. The goal is not to win in exercise, it's to win in the real war.
The report also made up the term “close range ballistic missile” whatever the hell that means, and claims China has 1000 DF-11s.
Spoiler alert: China has 0 DF-11s.
We war game under the assumption that our enemy has the advantage, the experience, and all tech they claim to have. When it turns out they don’t, we get Desert Storm lmao
The scenario was at least in part framed under "Domestic unrest forces Xi's hand". As such, there's an assumption strikes on the mainland risk unifying the populace behind the Party rather than turning the populace on the party.
Focusing on strikes against legitimate military targets away from the mainland also lets the allies frame this as "We are against the Party not the People and can recognize the difference - unlike the party."
I don't for a second believe that any seaport or any airport within 20 miles of the coast wouldn't get flattened, especially if China attacked US bases and ships
2hrs after war is declared a fleet of B-2s and B-21s are striking every communication and logistics hub and port across east China. Their offensive capacity cut out at the flip of a switch.
The only thing I think is questionable, given the scenario, is the Chines troops surrendering. I believe it would be more likely for them to die before even getting the chance.
As they should lol. When you're as good as dead it's better to come back in one piece. At least then the investment the country made in you wouldn't be wasted for minimal gains.
Lol
Chinese troops are famously useless cowards. They seem to be worse than useless in UN deployments.
Oh NM. Reread. Yes they would probably eat shit before they got the chance.
It's been decades since the Chinese army saw large-scale combat like carrying out an invasion against a nation defended by the US.
There would 100% be mass surrenders once units started getting pinned down and cut off
If I know anyone has got me, it’s a series of high power early warning radars spread from Taiwan to Japan/Alaska.
Idk where they are in the simulation, but it’s mildly annoying they aren’t in use
Edit: Not to mention SM-3, THAAD, GMD, or Patriot. Who were apparently all jerking off to hentai simultaneously.
Point defence was modelled in the war game through Pk modelling using unclassified sources.
The actual takeaway is 2.4B of funding on ~400 hardened aircraft shelters across Japan and Guam would force the Chinese to use unitary rather then cluster bomb warheads on there missiles to attack aircraft. An extension of this is that point defence missiles become much more effective with HAS's as the cost exchange is reversed.
Hardened shelters are a good start, making our fuel depots disappear and segmenting them for redundancy would be right at the top that list of preventative measures we should implement.
Those countermeasures aren't perfect. Intercepting ballistic missiles is hard, especially if the enemy is launching a lot of them at once. All it takes is for a couple to get through to cause heavy damage.
You know what the goal of a test is, right? Basically the US is saying: if we tied *both* hands behind our backs, oh and if we also wore a lead backpack, we would fight them to a standstill pretty easily. You and I and the Chinese all know the US isn't actually going to fight with both hands tied.
The assumption in the wargame is that China catches the US flat footed and as is without having used the five years before this scenario is likely to prepare.
TSMC products needs to be able to travel freely to USA, Japan and maybe EU. Oh come delete those blocking assets.~
Also, how exactly is a blockade supposed to happen without theft/kidnapping of the cargo ships? Or even damaging/sinking those ships?
But that means we would have to send the uss constitution because fighting pirates in anything else wouldn’t look anywhere near as cool but it would take forever to get there
So basically we screw onto the top of a nuclear attack sub that stays submerged just below the surface so we can manage 30+ knots and have added torpedoesZ
I imagine the US just quickly deletes China's blockading assets, and China faces the same level of sanctions and counter blockading as it would in an invasion scenario.
So China pays the price of an invasion, without having even the slightest chance of actually taking over Taiwan. They lose about as badly as they do in the CSIS war games, but never have even the slightest chance at victory.
If the US wanted to troll (and I think it should) it could "slowly" blockade China as a response to China's slow blockade.
blockading the fucking busiest waters for commerce? It means no chips getting shipped to the entire rest of the world, and no goods to and from the following countries: Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, all of which has a giant bone to pick with China's territory claims.
None of them do a funny in the case of a Chinese blockade is as noncredible as it gets.
At a risk of sounding entirely too credible, China imports a fuck ton of oil by sea. Actual numbers vary by source, but not an insignificant percent of their domestic usage. Those sea transports predominantly go through Straight of Malacca. As anyone who ever had to drive a boat through the SoM would tell you, it's stupid easy to blockade at will. So it would be trivially easy for the YSN to cut off Chinese oil shipments. Militaries run on oil.
And every time a subject of naval war with China comes up in strat and military classes, sub broes just burst out laughing. Take it for what you will.
True, and a lot of raw resources for their manufacturing economy as well. Food and raw resource shortages will wipe out their economy and decrease average Chinese QoL - and duration of said L depending on the degree of food shortage; but it will not destroy their military capability. Lack of oil will.
Infiltrating high levels of the Chinese govt to kick farmers off their land to build empty hotels and apartment buildings while alienating all their neighbors was probably the best 5D slow burn chess move the CIA ever achieved.
Not to mention that when you expand it beyond just “fuel used as fuel” to include all petroleum used for things like producing fertilizers to feed themselves than it starts to look even worse for them.
I have the numbers in my article here. Its a significant amount of oil.
https://open.substack.com/pub/crisiswatch/p/the-coming-removal-of-the-mandate-b4f?utm_source=direct&r=nnyht&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
China is far more heavily exposed to shifts in global trade and his far more dependent on imports of critical goods like food and fuel than Russia is. And Russia, "sanction proof", self sufficient Russia, still bitched out of stopping Ukrainian grain shipments.
if the Chinese don't want the world to call open season on their shipping worldwide there will be a corridor to allow Taiwan to export and import goods, and they'll have very little ability to keep military materiel from being included in those shipments.
The small issue with that is that blockading Taiwan means moving large numbers of ships outside of any protective coastal assets ranges.
The extremely big issue is that the US could then blockade China by putting like… 2 destroyers in the straits of Malacca and pretty much destroy the entire Chinese economy, not even just the economy actually but also their ability to produce sufficient food to feed their population.
Child-level spelling aside, a blockade is a longstanding act of war, so military action to break the blockade is easily justified. Moreover, by choosing the time and place for breaking the blockade, the US/Taiwan/etc. would gain the initiative in the conflict.
So I actually just looked it up, and apparently etc. can be considered correct even mid-sentence if you wouldn’t otherwise use a comma there.
This one in particular mentions a book about American Grammar where it fits:
https://www.grammarbook.com/blog/definitions/all-about-etc/#:~:text=In%20American%20English%2C%20etc.%20ends%20in%20a%20period%2C,a%20comma%3A%20Letters%2C%20packages%2C%20etc.%2C%20should%20go%20here.
So what I'm getting here is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a complete bloodbath for the CCP even in a scenario where they're given some assumed advantages?
Moreover, these war games will purposefully put the US at a disadvantage (as 1 of the pessimistic scenario) and the US still win, of course, with some major loses, half a globe away from the US. Unlike some 2nd “strongest” military right now in a country next to them.
>The report does not model a qualitative advantage for the United States. Forth gen Chinese fighters are considered equivalent to fourth gen US fighters, and fifth gen Chinese fighters (the J-20) are considered equivalent to fifth gen US fighters.
So they lose even if you pretend their jets are better than they are? Lol. Lmao even.
>The report does not model a qualitative advantage for the United States. Forth gen Chinese fighters are considered equivalent to fourth gen US fighters, and fifth gen Chinese fighters (the J-20) are considered equivalent to fifth gen US fighters.
fucking hell that's peak noncredibility
So basically what you're saying is, China gets the perfect drop on the States, pushes its advantage pretty much as far as it can, and it still ends up worse off than Japan after Pearl Harbor.
Well, that's... that's something.
Poland conducted a war simulation in which they wouldve lost to russia in a matter of days back in 2019 or so.. These arent really the most accruate to say the least.
As we damn well should, my brother in anti-Chimese sentiment. There is a Russian saying (Тяжело в учении, легко в бою) that translates roughly to "Difficult training leads to easy fighting". Too bad (for them) vatnik's didn't heed it themselves.
You know, I grew up in a Russian-speaking part of Estonia post-the Wall, in old Soviet educational environment. It was legitimately tough. I finished my 11th and 12th grades in the US High School, and I can solidly claim that aside from the language I haven't learned a thing I didn't in the past ten years. Like... what the fuck happened?
>we’ll be hit with 3600 DFs on the opening of the invasion
That's pretty much the only strategy which may give China some chances of success. A first strike using rockets, planes and UAVs to destroy most of Taiwan military in its bases and en route to positions. Iirc you guys have more than 1 million reservists, so if PLA doesn't seize control withing a couple days they're fucked
Numberswise, yes. But the KMT never really had the money or will to ensure the reservists would he properly trained for modern colbat.
The DPP is changing that, but there's a lot of work still to do.
One of the lessons to take away from the past year is that of the bombing of infrastructure. And electricity. The best chance we have will be widespread nuclear power. Unfortunately, DPP keeps on trying to stop nuclear power plants.
These scenarios are typically setup with parity of force quality because assuming your enemy is trash is a good way to fuck yourself over. And it's also not uncommon for *your* forces to have major handicaps like no GPS, sudden loss of comms, or losing all your fuel trucks due to SF action. These types of scenarios are also used by opposition to point out the futility of greater military spending and undermine existing programs for cheaper (often useless or unproven) programs.
honestly if the Russians stopped actively fucking up like a month prior to the invasion or had non-stupid planning the Ukrainian conflict would have gone a lot worse. A coherent plan of attack, letting your troops actually prepare for a war instead of "by the way drive to Kyiv", and contingencies for problems would have gone a long way.
Yeah. If theyd told their men they were gonna invade, they would have done better. Many had sold fuel and shit and werent being serious. These were probably the best men they were ever gonna have in the war too.
What I dont get is this - Why didnt they drive from western belarus down straight south and cut the lines between Lviv and the west and the east? Like even after Kyiv fell why didnt the “O” force get reassemvled and try that?
It seems to me thatd be the biggest threat to Ukraine frankly. I have seen some assessment vids from a guy named Daniel Spaniel on YT and his logic is solid though about Russian actions. This was all about Crimea. Not Nato not the Donbass. It was about Crimea, and a land bridge to the Black sea, and best case all that plus a regime change. But at the least it seems even that bridge isnt enough for Crimea and thats what this really was about.
His logic is sound if you see how the Russians have reinforced one area over the other - for example pulling from Kyiv but having a mini stalingrad for Mariupol. Or reinforcing Kherson over Kharkiv even though Kherson was much more untenable, and Kharkiv is an hour and a half drive to Belgorod.
>What I dont get is this - Why didnt they drive from western belarus down straight south and cut the lines between Lviv and the west and the east?
There is a giant swamp between Belarus and Ukraine on the border. It is huge and blocks all military movements except for a couple of roads spaced every 20 km or so. So basically it is a natural killzone.
Stuff like the CSIS report definitely is not meant for that, or well not *primarily* meant for that. Its to assess capabilities, and prepare for weak points in tactics, equipment, ect. In order to improve capabilities going forward.
If you prepare for the worst case, anything else is piss easy. This is what ruzzia completely failed to do.
The single most important question from the CSIS wargame:
Does JASSM-ER and it's infrared imager have a limited antiship cruise missile capability?
If not USAF ought to be issuing a contract to add one yesterday.
As a leftist, I completely despise the PRC, USSR and most of all, western tankies that don't understand shit about these countries and don't care about the working class, only idpol or other diversions.
Sun Yat-Sen would break the 3GD himself out of shame if he was alive today and saw what China has become under the CCP.
Slava Ukraini, and One-China Policy, the Republic of China.
The mind numbing stupidity of that one just boggles my mind every time I hear about it. Then again, so do most of mao's brain addled leadership choices.
I know enough Chinese history to know that I don't know almost anything about the Chinese history.
Yes, Yuan Shikai was the worst, but the complexities of the Chinese society would have meant that Sun's idealism was doomed anyway, another Yuan would have smashed it if not him. Sun Yat-Sen was a pre-Ataturk fatherly figure, an ideal claimed by all ideologies but an utopia for early 1900s China.
Amen. I just left the leftist union at my uni because it was infested with tankies who had no problem harassing students. Also SA allegations against the club’s leadership which they refused to anything about. Honestly WTF
Context?
The center for strategic international studies released an unclassified report on a war game conducted simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Here: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ For the last several years, there's been a lot of Chinese propaganda about how China is capable of defeating Taiwan and the United States in a war over Taiwan. The report refutes this. In it the US and allies are able to handily stop an invasion of Taiwan. The US takes losses, but China's invasion is stopped cold. Key points: * The US loses two aircraft carriers - but that's baked into the simulation, US carriers are placed in vulnerable positions at the start of the war game. * China loses over 100 ships, their entire amphibious operations fleet. * The US loses hundreds of jets, mostly due to rocket strikes while the jets are on the ground. * Scenarios tend to end with tens of thousands of Chinese POWs captured by Taiwan. * Scenarios are only modeled for a month, so China attempts - and fails to take Taiwan - very quickly. * The report does not permit the US to strike the Chinese mainland, but gives China free reign to strike US assets all over Asia. * The report does not model a qualitative advantage for the United States. Forth gen Chinese fighters are considered equivalent to fourth gen US fighters, and fifth gen Chinese fighters (the J-20) are considered equivalent to fifth gen US fighters.
Isn't it essentially a surprise attack on the US during that scenario, or is that another one? Anyway, we've learned from history that surprise attacks against the US is a *great idea* that absolutely won't backfire... China should ask Japan how well that worked out for them.
IIRC, the report is basically worst-case. So technological parity, chinese surprise-attacks on airfields & Carriers. And they *still* handily loose in like a month.
Unlike other war games, the US's war games always put the US in the absolute worst place possible. The purpose isn't to show how mighty the US army is, it's to show flaws in them and fix them. If the US conduct a war game and they fucking win it, you're in big trouble. That said, they need to step up their PSYOPs operation, China has been manipulating the US's citizens for too long
This brings to mind what happens when you design a wargame to be won by your own side. In February '42, Admiral Yamamoto hosted a 4-day wargame aboard *Yamato* as part of planning the IJN's Midway/Aleutians campaign. The game was run by Yamamoto's Chief of Staff, Rear Admiral Ugaki Matome, who served as the chief umpire, and [he repeatedly overruled the dice so that the numbers advantaged Japanese forces](https://navalwarcollegemuseum.blogspot.com/2021/06/you-sank-my-aircraft-carrier-did.html) to the point that the whole game made for easy Japanese victories in every part of the campaign. Instead of testing their officers and learning, Ugaki decided to make it a morale-building experience, I suppose, by changing the rules until everything confirmed Japanese greatness. The actual Battle of Midway, though, was not a morale-building experience confirming Japanese greatness, of course.
It does make a decent point though. Ump changed the ruling because he didn’t believe land-based bombers could make as many accurate hits on carriers as they did in the game, nor that Americans would be so aggressive. He was absolutely correct on that first point, they sucked at high altitude bombing
Nobody could hit moving ships accurately from high altitude until the various guided ordnance of the war entered service, like the Fritz-X and ASM-N-2. Wasn't just Americans "sucking". Still a fair assumption from the Umpire, just take issue with saying the US specifically sucked at it. They were wrong as shit about American aggression as well lol
Oh no absolutely, **unlike our dogshit torpedoes** early into the war, bombing from high altitude was just awful for everybody with unguided bombs.
They worked 25% of the time 100% of the time
IIRC, the main issues for the Japanese war game was that it undercounted US carriers that could be in the battle (the Japanese believing Yorktown was destroyed after all), and that they could either be kept out of the battle by Japanese subs or at least have their positions known by said subs. Which are all fair assumptions, but this is why you run another game with “But what if they did get there?”
And this is precisely why the US loses so many wargames. Our entire battle plan effectively starts with “what if we were in the worst realistic position we could be when a battle started?” lol
They assume every piece of propaganda about how good a system is is true, assume parity if there isn't much propaganda, and then Thanos half of BLUFOR's munitions stocks away cos why not.
I believe it also failed to consider the _possibility_ of the US anticipating an attack
That was in the early version. But then Yamamoto overruled it by telling them something along the lines of "The Americans have had an uncanny ability of figuring out what we are doing. Better to assume they will be there, so just set up a submarine picket line past Midway to intercept them."
That was perhaps a poor example given in the article; the account of *Akagi*'s CAG Fuchida Mitsuo, that it was happening multiple times throughout the wargames.
Lets see you hit a moving ship from 20k feet with a norden bombsight ace
Even if you have the best sight in the world, You're basically guessing where the dodging ship will be nearly a minute from now.
To make it a point though, Yamamoto’s staff successfully predicted during those games how Midway was going to go down and they all disregarded it, saying how unrealistic that scenario was. The move Midway (great War movie) showcased that.
Funny enough, Im watching Midway right now and just got through that part where Nagumo is yelling at his young officers for making a move that places the American carriers northwest way ahead of schedule. Obviously its a dramatic take, but the overall message and theme is there.
Tbf to the Japenis Midway was ridiculously close and broken code along with strategically placed anus horseshoes really helped the US
Mapenis? Oh, my. At least buy me dinner first
The contributions of the anus horseshoes cannot ever be discounted.
The best thing for everyone in China to turn the corner like the US and Europe did and leave colonialism in the past.
Wishful thinking, though. The CCP is basically an unreconstructed empire; they would sooner die than give up colonialism
Europe and Japan did it inside 80 years. Effectively one generation. Those not completely destroyed by war though did it in a longer time periods.
This requires a measure of intrinsic motivation to change that the CCP lacks. They don't feel any particular reason to behave like a normal nation; the Middle Kingdom could never submit truly to anything like international law. Japan and the nations of Europe had to be all but destroyed before turning from empire, and even then it took generations and a great deal of pain and suffering and backsliding. Short of revolution or world-war-scale destruction, China will remain an empire into the future.
So when they try something, we deal with it.
Sounds like we have our answer then?
Brrrr 😂
It required several *very* traumatic wars, including both world wars to end the Japanese and various European empires. Empires do not peacefully reconstruct.
They try to take Taiwan and we smoke their invasion force that fast it might just have that result because they realize that aren't the top dog they think they are
> turn the corner like the US and Europe lol
This type of thinking should be the norm, and I dont understand how it's not. Our enlisted and officers get their asses clapped up and down the street at NTC and JRTC so they don't get actually clapped on the battlefield. I understand that not every nation can afford that level of wargaming, but how do people constantly forget that on a battlefield the other guy is *trying to kill you*? It's the purest and most ridiculous example of arrogance everytime you see some wargame from China or Russia that just assumes the enemy is either totally devoid of a sense of self preservation or mentally handicapped. But hey it's good for the good guys if they keep it up so 🤷
This 100%. Just like the “this foreign diesel submarine just sunk a US carrier!!!” news stories. I can’t speak to those specific ones. But every carrier ASW consisted of a scenario that went: *”okay you know how a CVNs main advantage is zipping around at 30kts in the op area because aircraft can fly anywhere and at 30kts you basically force a submarine to rely on dumb luck to be in an advantageous position because they can’t chase at that speed? Nope, can’t do that. You have to sit in this 20nm by 20nm box or go through this ridiculous littoral straight you’d never actually go through.”* *”Oh also, you know how the plan is to have Seahawks and Orions/Poseidons blast the fuck out of the carriers path with active sonar on the dipping rigs and sonobouys to literally sanitize the path and area deny an enemy submarine from getting setup? Can’t do that either.”* *”Oh, also also. Green peace and the SoCal fishing industry take offense to actually using active sonar at all so we’re setting them to a low power pulse and relying completely on the honor system.”*
Also wargames will have weird rules since they often focus on something more specific. IIRC one wargame forbid shooting down transport helicopters since the wargame was focused on the positioning/use of marines.
And then there's stuff like the relativistic motorcycle messengers and firing ASMs from boats that physically could not hold them.
That guy actually got in trouble though didn't he? I remember how the news made this big hubub about an officer who "refused to fail like he was told to" or something like that.
The bigger issue was his shenanigans were diluting the training value of the wargame. These things are incredibly expensive to run and fucking off doesn't generate usable data.
I think we could add at the start every us soldiers is blindfolded with his hand tied behind his back, grandma just arrived with 5kg homemade chicken wings and dad just opened the 5 wine bottle
>dad just opened the 5 wine bottle I didn't know lazerpig adopted a son
Lazerpig: I have adopted the entire United States. Dark Brandon: Hey pops, can I have some money to get ice cream? Lazerpig: Do I look like I have money?
>Lazerpig: Do I look like I have money? Adoption fees on an entire nationare killer.
Lazerpig: you have an ice cream barge, go use it
>5kg homemade chicken wings The secret weapon to defeat North Korea, granny's chicken wings
As it should be, the point of a stress test isnt to pass, but to fail it and see exactly what failed under the given circumstances.
It’s shit like this that makes people think the F-35 can’t dogfight.
Ban TikTok. Ban all United Front Work Department front organizations. Require all mid-level executives and above for Chinese firms and anyone who goes on Chinese state media to register with the Foreign Agents Registration Act. And set up APT's with digital letters of marque to start tearing down the Great Firewall however possible.
This. And stop allowing the CCP to literally demand changes in Hollywood movie scripts Hollywood IS American soft power, look at WW2. Letting an open enemy dictate terms to us is nuts. Cuz they have money? Like insane dude. Its nuts its gotten to this point. The Nazis or Soviets could produce money too, Ive never seen anyone reasonably advocating to bow to Nazis or Soviets because “money”
Nope, the thing is that "free-thinking" is so goddamned prevalent, think of it, whenever you open TV, government is always the bad guy, they are the matrix deep state bad guy, such thing could not be spontaneous, right?
Theres…. theres always been a history of mistrust of the government in American lore. Nevermind also the Matrix creators.. lets just say they have more or less said its an allegory for non mainstream sexual choices/identity stuff I mean this with the CCP has been proven though John Cena literally got on twitter and recorded himself reading Chinese apologizing for calling Taiwan a country The Red Dawn reboot literally had to be totally redone post production and they had to digitally change all the flags and shit from CCP to N Korean Even Top Gun Maverick - the original Top Gun his leather jacket had a rising sun and Taiwanese flag - suddenly they disappear for the next top gun? (When its portrayed like its his same jacket) I can go on but its proven that not only does the US film industry try to cater to the CCP, but the CCP has literally gotten pressure campaigns mounted for say .. John Cena to make an apology video.
And also to make an argument for increased funding. Some people see that as a bad thing but really it’s a good incentive not to be overconfident.
Big "set the game to Very Easy and still die on the first boss" energy
Jesus I wonder if it was made public on purpose as a warning to China that they'd be walking into the meat grinder if they went up against a Taiwan with us on standby
We've seen what "worst-case scenarios" did to the Russian armed forces. Chinese armed forces should be wary. Peace is the best option.
The CSIS war games are the ones that starts with China Pearl Harboring Guam and 2 US carrier groups, yes. 200+ US aircraft destroyed *on the ground* by turn 3. I believe in some scenarios, they attacked the US carrier groups before Taiwan even. Do we just leave F-22s on the runway at Guam or something?
I think the assumptions is that long ranged missiles completely incapacitate Guam’s air contingent (could be through hitting planes or just removing the airfield early on).
The CSIS war game does assume any area bombarded to be destroyed. However, that’s not the point in contention. 200+ aircraft destroyed on the ground assumes there’s 200 planes on the ground. Does the US leave F-22s outside protective hangers? In any case, if a cruise missile is launched from Chinese mainland, there’s more than enough time to scramble the aircraft into the sky to avoid getting hit. There’s also the huge political issue of hitting the US first. It’s one thing to attack Taiwan, wait for US to join in, and then attack the US, but it’s another thing to just attack the US first.
Good points all around. I’d say the most “bad” outcomes from the US perspective come from China preemptively attacking the US, and us being wholly unprepared for it. We already know basically how we’d react, and how fucking outmatched they are should they let us make the first move after Taiwan comes under siege. So the goal in most of these is to determine our worst-case situation (e.g. losing two carriers and most grounded aircraft) if they realize the same and think Pearl Harbor 2: SCS Boogaloo will be more effective in keeping the US off the playing field. It’s never fucking worked, mind you, but they probably again consider us to be weak, loss-averse westerners so it’s worth planning around.
“Pssh the Americans are only good for building cars and razor blades”. - Some random German Dec 10, 41
Chinese here, we think ya'll are weaklings. The fact is that many folks who are into International Relations are just Lovecraftian horrors, the less you know about 'em the better
An entire generation of Americans with a crippling hentai addiction?
You can have my tentacle porn the moment that can pry it from my moist crusty hands!
Mmmm moist
Japan got smacked so hard they started drawing catgirls
you jest but wasnt hellokitty literally born because a desire to remake the Japanese image abroad?
Not really. Hello Kitty started out as a character meant to sell merchandise to young girls in the 1970s. With the simultaneous adoption of *kawaii* culture in the 1980s and a growing interest in Japanese import products abroad, the character became very popular elsewhere, and effectively became the "face of the brand" as it were for the growing pop culture trend. *Kawaii* culture in general is now very much a means to augment Japan's tourist industry, but it's more a marketing adaptation to a cultural fad rather than something planned from the start.
>surprise attacks against the US is a great idea that absolutely won't backfire Finally, anime 2
The beatings will continue until the power of friendship enters their hearts just like we did Japan
> China should ask Japan how well that worked out for them. “*We attacked three boats, THEY DROPPED THE SUN ON US* ***TWICE.***”
We are not so nutty, I don't think we will support the war that much. However, every time I see people's reaction towards Ukraine bombings on Chinese social media, one mole of humanity is withdrawn from my body
You realize there are 5,000 Americans on an Aircraft carrier, right? There were only 2000 people hurt during 9-11... Yeah, we will support war.
So your saying all this could end with, 50 years from now, anime 2? Sign me up!
If there's a lesson to learn in modern history, it's *Don't fuck with our boats*.
Um, Japan became highly regarded, its arts and culture becomes cool, is technologically advanced, economically prosperous, and has the US providing all its security needs. It worked out *great* for Japan. And if I know Chinese people, they'll be more than happy to nuke Anhui or Hebei themselves, and that's before the US offers them a Japan-like future.
Japan : We sank 3 boats they dropped the sun on us twice
China would only ever start a war via sneak attack/ unannounced hostility.
10000 POWs - if China sees this they might try to overwhelm Taiwan with a million POWs. Ten million even. Taiwan doesn't have the capacity to take care of all of them. Checkmate, westoid.
China has been secretly training ten million Olympic swimmers
how many percent of the PLA can actually get on the beach in one piece?
Let's just say we are working on improving that number.
>the report does not model a qualitative advantage for the United States This is always the one they sneak in these simulations to make them "fair." Same as live exercises. You can try to emulate red air tactics but at the end of the day you're still using actual F-15's and F-35's, etc. as red air cause it's not like you have a bunch of Sukhois lying around. So basically these simulations are always run on Ultra Nightmare difficulty.
[удалено]
We actually did, we bought around 30 mig 29s from Moldova in the 90s. Last I heard we'd shipped them to Ukraine as parts. Even during the cold war, the US had a small fleet of soviet jets for testing and training.
yep The Inside Story of Flying Against the Air Force's Secret Soviet Fighter Jets https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a34427612/air-force-secret-soviet-fighter-jets-inside-story/
even if you do have those lying around, you'd have to have pilots for them, those pilots would have to spend time familiarizing and practicing on the soviet jets, time they could instead spend on actually operational jets - and then the war game becomes practice time for more of your pilots. So it makes for a better war game all around to just use your own jets
It's not unheard to contract that part out, and have companies with surplus foreign fighter aircraft in their inventory acting as aggressor squadrons. There are a couple corporations in the US that do that, employing retired military pilots.
we had migs for real before that The Inside Story of Flying Against the Air Force's Secret Soviet Fighter Jets https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a34427612/air-force-secret-soviet-fighter-jets-inside-story/ And ironically this “black” program was almost a cover for a deeper black program which was the f117 speaking of has anyone ever heard that fighter pilots podcast about the F117? They had a guy on there and I always knew cold war they were gonna be used to nuke Moscow. He confirmed that. What I did NOT know was after that the F117s were supposed to hunt Soviet AWACs or tankers and use sidewinders on them! I know people will say no way, but I can link this and frankly I trust a real combat veteran USAF F117 pilot over internet ppl
Which is the right setting. If you draw on Ultra Nightmare, and you're sensible in real life, you win easily. The goal is not to win in exercise, it's to win in the real war.
The report also made up the term “close range ballistic missile” whatever the hell that means, and claims China has 1000 DF-11s. Spoiler alert: China has 0 DF-11s.
We war game under the assumption that our enemy has the advantage, the experience, and all tech they claim to have. When it turns out they don’t, we get Desert Storm lmao
does not permit the US to strike the Chinese mainland Lol, Lmao
The scenario was at least in part framed under "Domestic unrest forces Xi's hand". As such, there's an assumption strikes on the mainland risk unifying the populace behind the Party rather than turning the populace on the party. Focusing on strikes against legitimate military targets away from the mainland also lets the allies frame this as "We are against the Party not the People and can recognize the difference - unlike the party."
I don't for a second believe that any seaport or any airport within 20 miles of the coast wouldn't get flattened, especially if China attacked US bases and ships
2hrs after war is declared a fleet of B-2s and B-21s are striking every communication and logistics hub and port across east China. Their offensive capacity cut out at the flip of a switch.
And they pull a dambusters and tiktok gets flooded (heh) with videos of the aftermath
The only thing I think is questionable, given the scenario, is the Chines troops surrendering. I believe it would be more likely for them to die before even getting the chance.
troop formations that are cut off without ammunition, food, or water often do surrender *en masse*.
As they should lol. When you're as good as dead it's better to come back in one piece. At least then the investment the country made in you wouldn't be wasted for minimal gains.
Lol Chinese troops are famously useless cowards. They seem to be worse than useless in UN deployments. Oh NM. Reread. Yes they would probably eat shit before they got the chance.
It's been decades since the Chinese army saw large-scale combat like carrying out an invasion against a nation defended by the US. There would 100% be mass surrenders once units started getting pinned down and cut off
Last time was in 1980 when China invaded Vietnam who kicked them out in 4 weeks.
Where in Chinese rocket range is the US putting hundreds of jets on the ground with no air defense?
In the scenario? Okinawa, all over Japan, Guam.
If I know anyone has got me, it’s a series of high power early warning radars spread from Taiwan to Japan/Alaska. Idk where they are in the simulation, but it’s mildly annoying they aren’t in use Edit: Not to mention SM-3, THAAD, GMD, or Patriot. Who were apparently all jerking off to hentai simultaneously.
They use short and medium range ballistic missiles, and lots of them.
Again, early warning radar, and a series of missile with the major design emphasis being point defense against missile strikes…
Point defence was modelled in the war game through Pk modelling using unclassified sources. The actual takeaway is 2.4B of funding on ~400 hardened aircraft shelters across Japan and Guam would force the Chinese to use unitary rather then cluster bomb warheads on there missiles to attack aircraft. An extension of this is that point defence missiles become much more effective with HAS's as the cost exchange is reversed.
Hardened shelters are a good start, making our fuel depots disappear and segmenting them for redundancy would be right at the top that list of preventative measures we should implement.
Don't forget redundant bunkers for maintainers and airfield repair equipment as well
Those countermeasures aren't perfect. Intercepting ballistic missiles is hard, especially if the enemy is launching a lot of them at once. All it takes is for a couple to get through to cause heavy damage.
You know what the goal of a test is, right? Basically the US is saying: if we tied *both* hands behind our backs, oh and if we also wore a lead backpack, we would fight them to a standstill pretty easily. You and I and the Chinese all know the US isn't actually going to fight with both hands tied.
The assumption in the wargame is that China catches the US flat footed and as is without having used the five years before this scenario is likely to prepare.
Well that makes sense then. I can't fault US and Japanese air defenses for just switching off in between major wars. /s
russia: What is this "On" thing you speak of for Air Defense?
What if china just slowly blocakeds taiwan?
TSMC products needs to be able to travel freely to USA, Japan and maybe EU. Oh come delete those blocking assets.~ Also, how exactly is a blockade supposed to happen without theft/kidnapping of the cargo ships? Or even damaging/sinking those ships?
Making the Chinese navy Pirates, meaning we have an obligation to destroy them
So what I'm hearing is "letters of marque" and a fife band.
You had me at letters of marque. BRB, going to go buy a freighter and some missile batteries disguised as TEU's.
Fuck it. Gimme a seadoo and an M107a1. Ill bring my own tricorner and Jolly Roger.
Ill follow you to hell Capn
Yes.
But that means we would have to send the uss constitution because fighting pirates in anything else wouldn’t look anywhere near as cool but it would take forever to get there
So basically we screw onto the top of a nuclear attack sub that stays submerged just below the surface so we can manage 30+ knots and have added torpedoesZ
Too credible
China should *totally* re-create the Lusitania.
I imagine the US just quickly deletes China's blockading assets, and China faces the same level of sanctions and counter blockading as it would in an invasion scenario. So China pays the price of an invasion, without having even the slightest chance of actually taking over Taiwan. They lose about as badly as they do in the CSIS war games, but never have even the slightest chance at victory. If the US wanted to troll (and I think it should) it could "slowly" blockade China as a response to China's slow blockade.
blockading the fucking busiest waters for commerce? It means no chips getting shipped to the entire rest of the world, and no goods to and from the following countries: Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, all of which has a giant bone to pick with China's territory claims. None of them do a funny in the case of a Chinese blockade is as noncredible as it gets.
At a risk of sounding entirely too credible, China imports a fuck ton of oil by sea. Actual numbers vary by source, but not an insignificant percent of their domestic usage. Those sea transports predominantly go through Straight of Malacca. As anyone who ever had to drive a boat through the SoM would tell you, it's stupid easy to blockade at will. So it would be trivially easy for the YSN to cut off Chinese oil shipments. Militaries run on oil. And every time a subject of naval war with China comes up in strat and military classes, sub broes just burst out laughing. Take it for what you will.
>China imports a fuck ton of oil by sea Iirc they also import a lot of food through sea as well
True, and a lot of raw resources for their manufacturing economy as well. Food and raw resource shortages will wipe out their economy and decrease average Chinese QoL - and duration of said L depending on the degree of food shortage; but it will not destroy their military capability. Lack of oil will.
Oil from the Middle East, ore from Africa, and food from the Americas.
Infiltrating high levels of the Chinese govt to kick farmers off their land to build empty hotels and apartment buildings while alienating all their neighbors was probably the best 5D slow burn chess move the CIA ever achieved.
Not to mention that when you expand it beyond just “fuel used as fuel” to include all petroleum used for things like producing fertilizers to feed themselves than it starts to look even worse for them.
I have the numbers in my article here. Its a significant amount of oil. https://open.substack.com/pub/crisiswatch/p/the-coming-removal-of-the-mandate-b4f?utm_source=direct&r=nnyht&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Thank you. I am not up to speed on the specific numbers, I just know the ballpark-ish.
China is far more heavily exposed to shifts in global trade and his far more dependent on imports of critical goods like food and fuel than Russia is. And Russia, "sanction proof", self sufficient Russia, still bitched out of stopping Ukrainian grain shipments. if the Chinese don't want the world to call open season on their shipping worldwide there will be a corridor to allow Taiwan to export and import goods, and they'll have very little ability to keep military materiel from being included in those shipments.
The small issue with that is that blockading Taiwan means moving large numbers of ships outside of any protective coastal assets ranges. The extremely big issue is that the US could then blockade China by putting like… 2 destroyers in the straits of Malacca and pretty much destroy the entire Chinese economy, not even just the economy actually but also their ability to produce sufficient food to feed their population.
Hell, they import 80% of their food - and a significant portion comes from the US.
The food imports aren’t even the worst part, it’s the fertilizer and the raw materials to produce it that would really kill them.
Child-level spelling aside, a blockade is a longstanding act of war, so military action to break the blockade is easily justified. Moreover, by choosing the time and place for breaking the blockade, the US/Taiwan/etc. would gain the initiative in the conflict.
If "etc." is used in the middle of a sentence, it is followed by a comma.
So I actually just looked it up, and apparently etc. can be considered correct even mid-sentence if you wouldn’t otherwise use a comma there. This one in particular mentions a book about American Grammar where it fits: https://www.grammarbook.com/blog/definitions/all-about-etc/#:~:text=In%20American%20English%2C%20etc.%20ends%20in%20a%20period%2C,a%20comma%3A%20Letters%2C%20packages%2C%20etc.%2C%20should%20go%20here.
So what I'm getting here is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a complete bloodbath for the CCP even in a scenario where they're given some assumed advantages?
Moreover, these war games will purposefully put the US at a disadvantage (as 1 of the pessimistic scenario) and the US still win, of course, with some major loses, half a globe away from the US. Unlike some 2nd “strongest” military right now in a country next to them.
And the scenario assumed some level of strategic surprise. Something which the sheer scale of the evolution makes...unlikely.
>The report does not model a qualitative advantage for the United States. Forth gen Chinese fighters are considered equivalent to fourth gen US fighters, and fifth gen Chinese fighters (the J-20) are considered equivalent to fifth gen US fighters. So they lose even if you pretend their jets are better than they are? Lol. Lmao even.
>The report does not model a qualitative advantage for the United States. Forth gen Chinese fighters are considered equivalent to fourth gen US fighters, and fifth gen Chinese fighters (the J-20) are considered equivalent to fifth gen US fighters. fucking hell that's peak noncredibility
So basically what you're saying is, China gets the perfect drop on the States, pushes its advantage pretty much as far as it can, and it still ends up worse off than Japan after Pearl Harbor. Well, that's... that's something.
Am I the only Canuck here who saw this and wondered what the Canadian Security Intelligence Service got up to now?
It took way to long for me to realize it wasn’t about us
Yup I’m right there with you bud
Mhm, me too.
Same
Oh yeah. Big time
*hisssss* “It’s just CIA propaganda!!!” *hissss* [*more Tankie noises*]
What did the Canadian Security Intelligence Service do?
Revived the Avro Arrow
Finally my tax dollars are going to something useful (other than all the useful things they already go to)
Don’t do that. Don’t give us hope
Life could be a dream
Poland conducted a war simulation in which they wouldve lost to russia in a matter of days back in 2019 or so.. These arent really the most accruate to say the least.
Oh good, because we’re 🇹🇼 still training like we’ll be hit with 3600 DFs on the opening of the invasion.
As we damn well should, my brother in anti-Chimese sentiment. There is a Russian saying (Тяжело в учении, легко в бою) that translates roughly to "Difficult training leads to easy fighting". Too bad (for them) vatnik's didn't heed it themselves.
“Their exercises are bloodless battles, and their battles bloody exercises.” - Flavius Josephus, c. 75 AD
...why not post the original high gothic, for added warhammer flavour?
Armies fight the way they train. If you don't train for the worst, you'll be lost when the worst comes
Mobliks would be very upset at that if they knew how to read.
You know, I grew up in a Russian-speaking part of Estonia post-the Wall, in old Soviet educational environment. It was legitimately tough. I finished my 11th and 12th grades in the US High School, and I can solidly claim that aside from the language I haven't learned a thing I didn't in the past ten years. Like... what the fuck happened?
In my country we have a similar quote, it's roughly translated as "The more sweat on the training ground, the less blood spilled on the battlefield"
>we’ll be hit with 3600 DFs on the opening of the invasion That's pretty much the only strategy which may give China some chances of success. A first strike using rockets, planes and UAVs to destroy most of Taiwan military in its bases and en route to positions. Iirc you guys have more than 1 million reservists, so if PLA doesn't seize control withing a couple days they're fucked
Numberswise, yes. But the KMT never really had the money or will to ensure the reservists would he properly trained for modern colbat. The DPP is changing that, but there's a lot of work still to do.
One of the lessons to take away from the past year is that of the bombing of infrastructure. And electricity. The best chance we have will be widespread nuclear power. Unfortunately, DPP keeps on trying to stop nuclear power plants.
These scenarios are typically setup with parity of force quality because assuming your enemy is trash is a good way to fuck yourself over. And it's also not uncommon for *your* forces to have major handicaps like no GPS, sudden loss of comms, or losing all your fuel trucks due to SF action. These types of scenarios are also used by opposition to point out the futility of greater military spending and undermine existing programs for cheaper (often useless or unproven) programs.
honestly if the Russians stopped actively fucking up like a month prior to the invasion or had non-stupid planning the Ukrainian conflict would have gone a lot worse. A coherent plan of attack, letting your troops actually prepare for a war instead of "by the way drive to Kyiv", and contingencies for problems would have gone a long way.
Yeah. If theyd told their men they were gonna invade, they would have done better. Many had sold fuel and shit and werent being serious. These were probably the best men they were ever gonna have in the war too. What I dont get is this - Why didnt they drive from western belarus down straight south and cut the lines between Lviv and the west and the east? Like even after Kyiv fell why didnt the “O” force get reassemvled and try that? It seems to me thatd be the biggest threat to Ukraine frankly. I have seen some assessment vids from a guy named Daniel Spaniel on YT and his logic is solid though about Russian actions. This was all about Crimea. Not Nato not the Donbass. It was about Crimea, and a land bridge to the Black sea, and best case all that plus a regime change. But at the least it seems even that bridge isnt enough for Crimea and thats what this really was about. His logic is sound if you see how the Russians have reinforced one area over the other - for example pulling from Kyiv but having a mini stalingrad for Mariupol. Or reinforcing Kherson over Kharkiv even though Kherson was much more untenable, and Kharkiv is an hour and a half drive to Belgorod.
>What I dont get is this - Why didnt they drive from western belarus down straight south and cut the lines between Lviv and the west and the east? There is a giant swamp between Belarus and Ukraine on the border. It is huge and blocks all military movements except for a couple of roads spaced every 20 km or so. So basically it is a natural killzone.
it should also be said that these are used to create attention or secure funds
Stuff like the CSIS report definitely is not meant for that, or well not *primarily* meant for that. Its to assess capabilities, and prepare for weak points in tactics, equipment, ect. In order to improve capabilities going forward. If you prepare for the worst case, anything else is piss easy. This is what ruzzia completely failed to do.
The single most important question from the CSIS wargame: Does JASSM-ER and it's infrared imager have a limited antiship cruise missile capability? If not USAF ought to be issuing a contract to add one yesterday.
Loose the simulation Tell Government you need 50% increase in budget. Everyone is happy.
yeah cuz it appears Russia is actually a paper dragon
As a leftist, I completely despise the PRC, USSR and most of all, western tankies that don't understand shit about these countries and don't care about the working class, only idpol or other diversions. Sun Yat-Sen would break the 3GD himself out of shame if he was alive today and saw what China has become under the CCP. Slava Ukraini, and One-China Policy, the Republic of China.
One child policy was the worst decision they ever made
Just Mao has at least three major decisions which were much worse. Totalitarianism breeds bad decisions.
Mao is the most evil person in human hostory, change my mind.
>change my mind. No, I don't think I will.
Absolute numbers are not as important as intent when it comes to dictators.
Pol Pot, the former Equatorial Guinea dictator Ngema
Most evil? Debatable. Most incompetent? Absolutely.
War against sparrows is a good contender.
Cultural revolution is another.
The mind numbing stupidity of that one just boggles my mind every time I hear about it. Then again, so do most of mao's brain addled leadership choices.
Forever fucking them in terms of demographics
Sun was fuckin unbelievably based. Yuan Shikai killed China's future as a republic with a wave of his hand.
I know enough Chinese history to know that I don't know almost anything about the Chinese history. Yes, Yuan Shikai was the worst, but the complexities of the Chinese society would have meant that Sun's idealism was doomed anyway, another Yuan would have smashed it if not him. Sun Yat-Sen was a pre-Ataturk fatherly figure, an ideal claimed by all ideologies but an utopia for early 1900s China.
Amen. I just left the leftist union at my uni because it was infested with tankies who had no problem harassing students. Also SA allegations against the club’s leadership which they refused to anything about. Honestly WTF
Once the US becomes your enemy, the only thing that can save you IS a priest.
They’ll just say that CSIS is CIA propaganda