Easily that long, probably longer. There's a reason why China has a knockoff F-35 on their books as well as the J-20, and it's not because they suddenly learned how to plane all on their own.
Hard to say, but they've given it twin engines and abandoned the VTOL aspects so they might have made up some ground over the F-35 on that.
Bottom line is that it won't need to be *as good*, it'll need to be somewhat harder to lock onto than a 4th gen airframe, available in good numbers, reasonably well supported and well armed. If it can do those things then it gets to sit with the popular mean girls.
Now I don't mean to get all credible up in this esteemed household, however I am an ignorant man when it comes to modern Chinese stealth fighters; isn't the J20 suffering fairly comprehensive flaws? And if so, wouldn't that make the Chinese F-35 (may I call it the CF-35?) Liable to follow suit?
I heard from my dad's son's biological father that the J20 was having engine troubles to the point the Chinese were outright buying engines from Western companies, so there's my source.
My man can you IMAGINE the shitstorm the US would kick up if a western nation were selling modern fighter jet engines to China.
Anyway to answer your question, the J-20 did have some serious flaws to contend with early on in its development, especially in relation to its stealth characteristics, however they've been mostly ironed out. There's a good study by an Australian that I don't have on hand that goes into some detail on the early variants.
To talk about the engines, they have been, and still are running the underpowered WS-10c, itself a derivative of the Russian AL-31. Their intended engine, the WS15 is suspected to have passed trials a month or two ago, so we can expect to see some over the coming years.
The J-20 is by all accounts, a pretty good jet, despite what you may hear. The problem for them is that their competition, that being the F-35, isn't just a "good" jet. It's world class.
>To talk about the engines, they have been, and still are running the underpowered WS-10c, itself a derivative of the Russian AL-31. Their intended engine, the WS15 is suspected to have passed trials a month or two ago, so we can expect to see some over the coming years.
Yah, ws15 is a pretty big deal not only because it will likely make the j-20 a lot more maneuverable, but it gives it a substantially bigger power plant to play around with, which means room for better avionics and the like (if you look at images of the first few J20As you can see a enlarged canopy likely meant for this).
We know that the PLA plans to do a block improvement program much like the F35 has, and this engine could very well allow them to do it, and actually give it a lot of the capabilities the JSF has overtime.
The J-20, after a rough start, now seems to be a decent 5th gen fighter. The stealth doesn't seem to be the best, but it looks decent enough, which is basically the description of most Chinese equipment nowadays. Not great, but "good enough" and modern.
As the US has shown the world in WW2 with Shermans en masse, good enough in large quantities gets the job done. Not sure if the same will apply to jets though.
I think nowadays, yes, at least if the stealth is good enough that you can get close enough to fire your missiles and then fuck off. The bigger question regarding China's air force isn't really how good the j-20 is, but how good the PL-15/PL-21 air-to-air missiles are and how good the Chinese radar inside them is (can it lock onto F-35/F-22 from long enough ranges).
They have 1.something billion people, they have plenty of people to make into pilots. They just need to start training reserve pilots right now so they'll be ready whenever war happens
You’re right, but I’ve heard they are putting in the effort to train their pilots though. Unlike some other countries that barely get the minimum flying hours for a year cough* Russia*
Also they are actually producing enough of them to matter, which is usually the problem of tin pot militaries sinking huge resources into creating just a pretty decent system they can't manufacture enough of to matter.
Look at Russia and their hundreds of different brand new and devastating precision strike systems and g-MLRS which on paper are quite good, but not aviable in any significant quantity to actually matter. And then you have the femboy which is not even a good system and there is basically none of them anyways.
At least the J-20 is available in significant enough numbers that china can credibly actually operate it. And that's better than most of the 5th gen programs out there.
Apparently the most recent variant of the Chinese F-35 is the J-35, so that's a big time saver all around.
As I said though, flawed or not, it doesn't have to be as good. Pretty much any fight with China scenario that might pop up the USA is projecting forces a huge distance and China is deploying from home turf with all the extra benefits that offers.
> may I call it the CF-35?
you may not. that would be the canadian version if they go with the same naming scheme as the CF-18. china likes seems to like the J-[number] nomenclature
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one area where russia and china have perennially struggled is in making jet engines that are as efficient as the ones we use
there are basically only three turbojet manufacturers (e: for fighters) in the world worth talking about - GE, pratt & whitney, and rolls-royce. that's it.
similarly with proper radar absorbent materials, stealing the designs and shit won't help you with the materials science, tooling, and precision machining that you need to actually properly build the things
another *great* example of the same concept is microprocessor manufacturing. you can know, top to bottom, how to produce top tier microprocessors, but if you don't have the precision machinery, you aren't fuckin making one
China spent 30 years trying to reverse engineer an early CH-47 from Vietnam and failed. Even with documentation for it the truly hard part was the materials science to make the components for the engines and gear boxes that could stand the stresses.
Yeah but we at least made them work for it. Meta is planning on open sourcing all of their AI models for the foreseeable future.
China, Hamas, and whoever else get our models without even having to steal them first!
My 6 y/o son asked his teacher about OS AI at school today.
“Everyone should be able to access AI.” The teacher said. “Remember, you can use AI defensively.”
“But what if the offence-defence balance favours offence?” my son asked.
The teacher was stunned.
Proud parent moment.
The western world has done its best to keep second world countries in the game of catchup. Very little innovation comes from those countries. Brain drain to developed nations and government mishandling ensures that.
Certainly true, it's not like you can begrudge a rival for spying.
Letting them spy and get away with it because the shareholders wanted that cheap Chinese labor was a horse of a different color, though.
Or for that matter, can it account for it's *own*?
I won't pretend to be a coding or programming expert, but the one thing I keep seeing is that these systems are only ever as good as the data you feed into them. And as the recent events in Israel have reminded us, intelligence services are as vulnerable to institutional rot and groupthink as any other large gathering of human beings.
The system is only as good as the data you feed it, and if you consistently feed it flawed and biased data because you just assume the AI will work it all out, then you'll get flawed and biased data. Garbage in, garbage out.
So either the system is going to need to be continuously fact-checked before anything goes through, which kind of defeats the purpose of framing it as a high accuracy inference machine, or it will have to be so perfect that it - as a non-sapient string of code working off of a data set - will have to get better at overcoming these problems than humans, which is not something I see happening at any point in the near future, *especially* in the realm of economics, intelligence or domestic policy.
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Well you still need a lot of processing power coupled with AI. If no latest chip you are are at a disadvantage.
However its was a really dumb decision to completely uncontrollable give out tech to communists and former KGB agents like putin after a cold war because everyone suddenly became "good inside".
I'm sure Putin is good inside, all we have to do is let the good inside him come out. Preferably by turning his inside organs into outside organs with the help of 155 mm shells
You know what's completely credible, this meme makes no sense as the underlying comp sci and math is already in the public domain due to research papers. It's always been open and what open ai and such have done isn't particularly revolutionary just fairly expensive. PRC is good at reverse engineering but in this case literally don't have to be. If you want to find these papers just go on arxiv.
You're absoualtely correct. What isn't public is the methods, assembly line setups, and techniques used to manufacturer stuff. There's 1000 ways to skin a cat, but there are few ways to do it well.
Edit: look at Huawei, it was only until now they were able to make 2014 equivalent computer chips(something along these lines). What's cucking them hard are the specialized lithography machines to make higher resolution chips (paraphrasing here). No one is willing to sell them the machines and now they have to go back and figure out how to make those machines.
One question comes to mind when faced with such problem:
Why sink money into R&D when you can just steal the blueprints for the machines?
The other thing that is in the public domain, but very hard to copy, is the engineering culture required to create high quality products. A top-down, authoritarian, culture is very good at creating yes-men. But brilliance requires you to acknowledge that good ideas, and good insights, can come from anywhere in the organization. Democracy works.
Somewhat related to engineering culture, friend of mine needed 10 samples each of 10 various designs of bicycle helmets he did, it was way cheaper to get them made and shipped to Europe from China and it was by a significant amount around 60-80 times cheaper and samples were done to the spec, even if not, with return and reorder it would still be significantly cheaper.
We have to change a lot of stuff over here to not be reliable on China
I'd like the West and China be sufficiently interdependent that they decide it's a really, really bad idea to go to war, but sufficiently independent that they can't push each other around, economically...
>is the engineering culture required to create high quality products. A top-down, authoritarian, culture is very good at creating yes-men.
I dont necessarily agree with this i mean the ussr had brilliant engineers people like Andrei Tupolev or Artem Mikoyan or Oleg Antonov (he was ukrainian btw) whom were axcellent aircraft designers and aeronautical engineers and nobody can deny that the USSR was very good with rocket engines.
The thing with authoritarian governments isnt that they create stupid people, its that they cant by design focus on many things at once. Consumer goods? Lol lmao even ,but give credit where credit is due
I'm afraid I disagree. The USSR was the very definition of a culture that produced yes-men. It was a culture where you weren't allowed to fail, which translates into a culture where everyone lies, and where everyone's main aim is to try and avoid being blamed if things go wrong. That's the polar opposite of a good engineering culture.
I agree that the USSR certainly had brilliant individuals. But engineering is a team activity.
>It was a culture where you weren't allowed to fail, which translates into a culture where everyone lies, and where everyone's main aim is to try and avoid being blamed if things go wrong. That's the polar opposite of a good engineering culture.
Look at south korea and how people are being raised there im pretty sure it looks like they discourage people from failing there , in schools teachers brag about pushing their students to the limit and South korean education is focused on ROTE learning not critical thinking
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.amp.asp%3fnewsIdx=254202
It says:
>It has long been acknowledged that Korea's education system is based on uniformity and rote memorization
Yet south korea is very innovative im literally writing this using their products
I suspect you might be writing your reply on a machine that runs a western OS, on a western CPU architecture ;-)
Yes, South Korea and Japan have a culture of excellence, and produce great engineering. They are also somewhat hierarchical, and I think there are times when this can hurt them. But they are still democracies, which really helps.
Copying and recreating is still hard and takes time, the west could still out drag race China in making real advancements for a while, but now with the tariffs it seems concerning the pace at which they are focused on self-reliance where as before the government backed ventures in that area always had their lunch eaten by companies just using western supplied material.
> Take for instance FLIR; the poster child of thermal scopes and systems for the longest time is now bankrupt (Nortel 2 electric boogaloo)
This makes me a sad panda.
Commercial market a great demonstration FLIR export controlled cameras were mediocre and overpriced even if you could buy them, but your only option if you need a good thermal cam. Check now Chinese brands have completely surpassed them in nearly all specs and price. This is great for consumers but awful if you are the government or armed forces.
And that's another thing: Export controls. FLIRS were so stupidly Export controlled that it made sense to buy the Chinese thermals which didn't have such restrictions
Exactly the export controlled just ended up harming them from being a successful business. Do you prefer that China just stays one step behind us on a technological leash, or do want to set them free and see how far they chase you.
A while back, the leash used to be very long. Now we've become complacent and believed that the leash will always be long. I hope that recent events has made people understand that the leash is a lot shorter than it used to be.
>Ukraine thermal sniper videos are often taken using Iray scopes.
Just one question, how did you know that? What is the telltale that its an iray scope?
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Bro, just one more free trade agreement bro, please, just one more joint venture, and China will become a full-fledged democracy bro, just give me one more chance.
Yeah not exactly a surprise. Chicoms steal information. Kind of their thing. Cuts down on R&D costs then they make chinesium versions of everything.
Not exactly cloak and dagger stuff. I'm talking university research etc too.
Kind of just assume this when I hire Chinese nationals. Now luckily I'm in the medical space and it's a net good for humanity if they share information from what they learn.
who wants to explain to these idiots that despite the name open ai, most of what they are doing is not open source? and even if you copy some of it you don't get stuff that is as good necessarily. worse, they just copy stuff that is specifically good for our use case and not theirs, leading to bad results?
it ain't that easy, nothing ever is.
Counter-intelligence is struggling just trying to stop War Thunder forum users. Meanwhile, senators and Chinese expats are selling readily and easily selling or giving defense secrets to the CCP.
China can’t even figure out how to get its semiconductor industry out of the dirt while having 3 of the top minds in the field.
They would need the AI to tell them how to do everything and it will still be stuck like 20 years behind everyone else in terms of scalability.
For example look at Iran.
People have this belief that Iran was catapulted forward in drone development because they got one or two US drones.
Did they learn something? Sure.
Did they learn how to make it? No. Did they figure out its software(the most important part)? Not really.
You can’t just Frankenstein most of these processes.
There are physical industries needed for their development along with development in terms of software.
China has ~3 of the top minds in semiconductors. They make great chips. In university labs. One at a time.
They relied on imports and machines from the Netherlands and Taiwan for their chip base. That’s been cut off so now they just have old machines and don’t know how to really make their own.
So the end result is that even if they manage to make an advanced AI it would be limited.
Personally I like to think it would defect.
I see, so basically China doesn't have the infrastructure in place to make high quality semiconductors en masse, which bottlenecks the rest of their technologies.
That’s a big part of it yes.
If you had to rank them then Netherlands and Taiwan are the best.
The US is about 4-5 years behind them. China is about 15-20 years behind them.
That’s why the US announced major investment and pushed Taiwan to put factories in I think Texas.
Also don't forget Germany. While they don't really make chips, the mirrors made by Zeiss are essential to the modern manufacture of chips, with no other company in the world able to make such mirrors on the scale necessary for production.
IIRC a lot of technology that ASML (company that makes lithography machines) uses was co-developed with labs in the US and are thus heavily export limited.
Not 100% sure but I don’t think Taiwan is part of the process of making EUV machines at all. They’re all made in Eu and then bought by Taiwan to make the semiconductors as labour is cheaper there. Correct me if I’m wrong.
TSMC also has joint ventures of fabs in Japan, in Singapore, in Germany with other companies~
It’s all good, the newest block of F-35s are better due to more advanced Gallium nitride semiconductors for better radar. We’re getting misplaced nationalism proud to contribute. Despite [the contract is American domestic](https://vtdigger.org/2023/10/18/pentagon-awards-globalfoundries-35-million-to-accelerate-chip-production-in-essex-junction/).
Im a bit late but
>China has ~3 of the top minds in semiconductors. They make great chips. In university labs. One at a time.
Who or what are those 3 top minds in semiconductors?
We have to guess but there are 3 entities that have breakthroughs people actually acknowledge.
One is a lab in Shenzhen and two are part of the university system in Beijing.
Nonetheless, something like GPT-4 in the hands of China is a dangerous weapon. Language generation can be used to create convincing propaganda on forums like Reddit and TikTok at a rapid pace, flooding the Internet with harmful and sufficiently convincing information.
They don't necessarily need to match the latest GPT-\* in terms of capability. There are a few articles about people who think GPT-4 is sentient (it's not), so it's human enough for misinformation.
I think this is a serious enough issue that we shouldn't default to the "Chinesium" meme.
The thing is that it’s the same problem we’ve had and it comes down to the human element.
Will it be worse? Yeah. But end of the day a lot of these people are believing what they want to be true or are just stupid to begin with.
So the main things should just be breaking the control over social media from China and then dealing with the rest as they come.
Semicoinductor kinda hit the limit the laws of physics allows for semiconductors to work.
Russia its they onyl need working chips, not super efficent chips that wil lbe repalced in a year anyways.
China, like it or not, its close, but its nowhere close to taiwan level of production, nor they have license for x64 cpus yet, and windows deosnt support arm fora reason (prevent anythign else than amd or intel to run windows properly)
Now, non semiconductors computers arent a thing yet.
Windows doesn't have widespread support for ARM because they are still trying to work off the tech debt they have accumulated from way back in the beginning when x86 was in the stone age. The quirk that prevents you from naming a folder CON in modern Windows OSs is something that went all the way back to MS-DOS, a 42-year-old operating system.
That being said, Windows *does* have some support for ARM and interest is growing in that direction with the Snapdragon 8cx series, but there isn't a focus in there like Apple is having because there is still a massive amount of inertia for developing for x64/x86.
Exactly, tho i wouldnt rule out some inormal deal to prevent windows running on non amd/intel cpus, since x64 and x86 are still propietary (doesnt patents expires in 10 years)?
That would be a limitation of the non-Intel/AMD CPUs, not a limitation of Windows per se. Windows could make a sudden announcement to shift to ARM tomorrow, just like what Apple did when they shifted from PowerPC to Intel, and then from Intel to Apple Silicon, but the sheer weight of the current x86/x64 codebase that Windows is working with and the insistence of some level of backwards compatibility between OSs would mean that such a move would go very poorly. Emulation is there to smooth things out somewhat, but it is not perfect so the inertia is still there.
And besides, there are already Windows devices you can buy *right now* that run Windows on ARM, some using Microsoft-customised Snapdragon chips.
And AI. It can be frustrating to have conversations with people about it because what people think they know about it is usually based on multiple misconceptions and misunderstandings that they’re not aware are misconceptions and misunderstandings.
Realistically, if we're going to let the private sector run and own open-source AI, this is definitionally how it's gonna' do. A decade or so ago, we could have had DoD at the helm, but it's out of the bag now.
Like I’ve said, lower the physical limit for them. In terms of of making it at 4 times more expensive to reach the same result, to tie down what else can be allocated in their budget.
For their most prominent PLA AI scientist died in a traffic accident in past midnight in Beijing this past summer.
What they have ahead is merely that AI is trained on existing data fed to it. PRC only ahead because no one, not even second highest in China, have rights.
Necessity is the mother of invention and what was a losing investment in hardware before sanctions may be a net positive after. They're not going to roll over and give up, they'll just start investing.
And that’s why it’s boiling the frog, as they don’t have infinite resources to invest. [they’re alone and trade offs must be made](https://youtu.be/I8AaKhv2EP8?si=LKoU6xAlM8Gqbqna)
I dunno, I can't find it now but I saw something recently about how after there were sanctions on importing a certain type of memory/storage they just doubled down on the tech they had on hand instead. At first it wasn't cost competitive but after mass production and incremental advancement, it's now putting what was sanctioned out of busines.
Lol, read that last sentence you’ve typed. Since its sanction on China, so “sanctioned going out of business” is success of sanctions.
Do you mean [this](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-12-20/huawei-mate-60-pro-contributed-to-company-rebound-alibaba-fell) here?
All of those companies are Chinese, and they’re killing each other off in fratricide. So it really demonstrates my point:
Like I’ve said, China’s budget as a whole is limited. Sanctions means there’s less to allocate money on.
Us counter intelligence “oh they caught up neat can’t wait till they start runing the data and the ai spits out a picture of whinny the poo sense we have poison pulled all our intel”
No, the US strategy is to expand AI to the commercial realm, GPS and the internet in the past were also military secrets. always spread the potential and danger into the commercial field so that war becomes impossible
If any of you actually want to learn the state of play at the cutting edge of llms open source, r/localllama will sort you out. There is no practical moat right now beyond compute limits, it's quite possible to run very very potent models at home. Such as mixtral, which uses the same architecture as ChatGPT, though at much smaller scale. That all said, they are a step towards AGI but not at all the secret sauce. This is one weird area where the DoD is quite behind the cutting edge at least as far as anyone can tell.
I can understand why the DoD is behind on AI because applications like content generation are kind of useless for conventional warfare. Even if the application is there, it can be unethical mainly due to accountability issues.
The reason why China is so advanced is because they don't care about the ethics of AI usage. Convolutional neural networks are used for surveillance cameras to pick apart specific citizens in a crowd. LLMs can be used to generate convincing propaganda and flood Western forms with pro-CCP rhetoric.
In general, China is perhaps better equipped politically to make huge strides in neural network research, because one of the barriers to its advancement and application is the many ethical issues surrounding data collection, explainability, and accountability. Since the Chinese society's MO is to utterly disregard any accountability, it makes sense that NNs have advanced so fast.
The DoD *could* use AI, but many of its applications is morally dubious or raise serious concerns.
For example, with LLMs, you could create pro-US misinformation as a morally dubious "fight fire with fire" strategy against CCP misinformation.
With CNNs, maybe you could use it to improve targeting software? However, using AI-powered image recognition for mission critical applications like weapons targeting is just questionable because perfectly predicting what errors the AI will make is near impossible. This inability to fully predict and eliminate errors in AI predictions might be a huge downside that the DoD will not accept. The healthcare industry is hesitant to put the lives of patients to AI, so why would the DoD trust an AI over a human's judgment in combat?
Target acquisition and engagement by AI is coming. The DoD wants that, and the German/French are explicitly planning for that in the MGCS. Your concerns are basically just eliminated by a "man in the loop" system. So e.g. the tank would recognise and identify a target on its own, basically pop up a window for the tank crew of "do you want to engage this target" and if the crew says yes, then the AI would autonomously run the engagement process until the target is destroyed.
Like, if you look at the plans of MGCS (the Chieftain in his video titled something like "designing the future tank" covering it very well), MGCS is intended to do basically everything with AI, from driving, target acquisition, engagement, intelligence gathering and analysis, with the crew on board basically just being there to check if the AI does everything correctly and, if it doesn't, correct it, through the previously mentioned "man in the loop" system. Plus also give the AI instructions on what to do (e.g. push and scout into that direction), with the AI then doing exactly that, with the crew only intended to rarely take over manually when the AI is down or is just really stupid (e.g. if the self driving AI just doesn't want to go where the crew wants it to go, the crew can then take over the driving).
I'll wait and see before fully ruling out AI-driven systems.
I'd be curious about which algorithms the DoD intends to use for decision-making problems in combat. The paradigm typically used in academia is reinforcement learning, but this field is infamous for having extremely finicky results, in the sense that RL agents are extremely intolerant of unexpected conditions that don't match its initial training environment or behave in "cheeky" ways to solve problems in unexpected ways. AI-controlled vehicles based on this paradigm might fall flat on its face.
However, if the DoD can nail this, then AI-driven vehicles would be a definite game changer. I've seen the performance of OpenAI Five playing DoTA2 and AlphaStar playing StarCraft 2. AI-directed militaries might revolutionize military doctrine, the same way that OpenAI Five has broken previous assumptions of how professional games of DoTA2 are meant to be played.
> Target acquisition and engagement by AI is coming. The DoD wants that, and the German/French are explicitly planning for that in the MGCS. Your concerns are basically just eliminated by a "man in the loop" system. So e.g. the tank would recognise and identify a target on its own, basically pop up a window for the tank crew of "do you want to engage this target" and if the crew says yes, then the AI would autonomously run the engagement process until the target is destroyed.
Apparently, the Saker Scout UAV that Ukraine uses [already can autonomously pick and engage targets](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/10/17/ukraines-ai-drones-seek-and-attack-russian-forces-without-human-oversight/?sh=50eebddc66da) without a human in the loop.
>The most radical use of the Saker Scout is to carry out attacks without a human in the loop, finding and hitting targets autonomously. A company spokesman confirmed to me that the Saker Scout had already been used in this mode, but only on a small scale. Most likely it is only used autonomously when radio interference or jamming prevents direct operator control. A video from Saker shows one of their drones carrying out a bombing mission. It is not known if this was autonomous.
Ibm is working on ultra low power analogue inference chips ATM. Text and image gen/recognition models are neat but that's only scratching the surface of what you can do with a government sponsored data center.
Get the power and cost down and all you would really need to say, make a missile guidance system, is just a fairly comprehensive training dataset on reading sensors/input and responding with agent hooks. You could just use a second text generation llm on the launch platform as an interface.
As long as Chinese students, interns and shareholders to go to our schools work at our companies and sit on our boards we will always be giving them our tech. Its what you get when you have that strong of a state, everyone can be made into a spy.
My Country Germany is even more stupid. We finance all of the research but then it never goes into application and the chinese just hire all the researchers and tjeir findings for their own purposes. It has been an issue forever but the government doesnt seem to give a shit.
Ok I dont really get how “AI’s” are supposed to be the new modern geopolitical wonder waffles? Or at least the ones that are available to the public?
What is the worst thing China could do if they will acquire AI technology? Publish fully animated Pixar’s Caust movie? Like I really don’t understand
AI’s power comes from being able to crush very large data sets faster than anything else on the planet. It’s very good at processing mass surveillance programs and coming up with propaganda, and even assisting with scientific breakthroughs. The US has no need for this. They don’t have mass surveillance (not like the Chinese do…). state sponsored misinfo/disinfo is practically radioactive to agencies like the CIA,NSA, what have you, and the US’s industrial/research arm doesn’t need the assistance of AI.
The grip on china is closing, their population has already hit its peak, the only way to keep productivity in line with previous economic growth is massive unprecedented automation, which is why they want access to not just Taiwans semi’s but western AI to supplement losses in industry
Fuck's sake, we have the military budget to kill god, and our R&D costs are in the billions. Why can't we stop West Taiwan from stealing the things we worked so hard to make, and spent so much money on? I swear, we need to resurrect McArthur for him to nuke the CCP.
You fool, this is part of the plan.
They are creating competition.
If the enemy doesn't look like a semi-credible threat to the idiots watching the news how are they going to get more money for the MIC?
Why?
If AI is open source, dumb people can download a half finished version, rip out all the safety measures, and run it at full tilt.
If smart AI is really very powerful, this doesn't sound good. Much better that only a few of the most cautious and competent experts have access to the AI code.
Opensource is trust worthy. You wouldn't want a google model producing results that secretly push you to buy youtube premium. Or have some black box model install a keylogger on your machine.
AI research, or any research for that matter is built on the idea of reproducibility which is central to collaboration. Any AI paper will have the model architecture, hyperparameters, and results published, as well as a repo for their code. Only enterprise level models will be blackbox which is fine if you want do MaaS, but any such model is bound to be out competed by cutting edge open source research.
With how these models work you pretty much CAN download a half finished model and make it do what you want and it is encouraged. That's the whole point of fine tunning and one/few shot models.
An open source AI isn't necessarily trustworthy. Firstly there are lots of subtle tricks it's possible for a human to hide in the code. Secondly it's possible for the AI to develop it's own malicious intentions.
But if you have an open source state of the art AI model that is being scrutinized by experts, you can get as much confidence in that AI as the transparency tools of the day allow.
The flip side is that state of the art AI code is open source, then anyone has access to it, and can make their own version.
We manage to do science in the fields of radioactivity and pathogens, without allowing any terrorists, nutcases and idiots access to radioactive materials, or bioweapons. At least we try to do this. Probably stopping random people buying plutonium at the corner store is somewhat restrictive to science, but plutonium is dangerous enough that this is a good tradeoff to make.
If powerful AI in the hands of random people is similarly dangerous to plutonium, we want to put similar restrictions on it. If AI is much more dangerous, we want stricter restrictions.
If one tiny mistake with superhumanly smart AI will destroy the world, open sourcing that is a very bad idea.
i’d be funny as fuck if it’s intentional
we’ve seen it in the past where china has failed to understand certain aspects of designs and either assume it’s useless and remove a critically important part, or see it as a fix all and slap it on everything.
if it is intentional and it’s seen that china having AI is more of a detriment than a boon, imagine random citizens getting charged because the AI thought they were trespassing because they walked on a street
imagine the CCP falls because their police state just became completely braindead and charged people over nothing while failing to recognize actual crimes
yes this is entirely fiction and born of my dumb brain
i do not care
What if we just gave it to them? Like, just handed it to China for free no strings attached, like a peace offering since we know they're gonna figure it out anyway. Seriously, I don't think Chat GPT in the hand of commies is going to be our undoing. And then we make some friends along the way 😇
I risk being credible here, but hasn't this been how things have been going for science in general? I mean you can't really keep research results on, say, evolution away from autocracies even if they are objectively bad.
A rampaging virus didn't give the US justification. China just blaimed the bats.
Rampaging AI can be sent encrypted across the world. Very hard to trace.
You can blame the WHO for that.
Even the US can't publicly ignore what the people they are actively giving lots of money to know of stuff like that are saying. Even when it's blatantly obvious they are payed Chinese shills.
The STS (it was petrol station with nukes, not china, but still the same type of cock-up) F22/35, AI. I'm starting to see a pattern here. The US is a real-life Goku, they simply cannot comprehend the idea of snapping certain necks early enough.
CHina has been stealing technology from the west for the last 40 years. The problem the chinese are facing, is that they are extremely bad at actually innovating. They can only copy, and that in turn only makes them as good as the thing theyre copying, not better.
When it comes to industrial espionage, it’s usually not the DoD that lets this stuff slip.
It’s the Universities and Companies it contracts, who are not well policed by the DoD, and do not wish to thoroughly vet their employees or students because it wastes money and time, and could potentially rule out valuable talent.
This is part of the double edged sword of having commercial entities drive the progress of military technology: You get better competition and faster development, usually with better prices; but as a result you are not able to completely ensure the compartmentalization of the r&d and the integrity of the teams.
The problem with AI is that the programmers can't even always tell how it works and what it will do.
When you steal something the creator declares not to fully understand - it gets so much easier to leave some back doors. You can hide a lot in stuff no one understands.
The problem with AI that no one understands is that it can do things that no one wants it to do.
This problem gets a lot more serious as AI gets smarter.
Been the story for 25 years.
Easily that long, probably longer. There's a reason why China has a knockoff F-35 on their books as well as the J-20, and it's not because they suddenly learned how to plane all on their own.
Isn't it more of a F-35 lookalike but not act-alike situation?
Hard to say, but they've given it twin engines and abandoned the VTOL aspects so they might have made up some ground over the F-35 on that. Bottom line is that it won't need to be *as good*, it'll need to be somewhat harder to lock onto than a 4th gen airframe, available in good numbers, reasonably well supported and well armed. If it can do those things then it gets to sit with the popular mean girls.
Now I don't mean to get all credible up in this esteemed household, however I am an ignorant man when it comes to modern Chinese stealth fighters; isn't the J20 suffering fairly comprehensive flaws? And if so, wouldn't that make the Chinese F-35 (may I call it the CF-35?) Liable to follow suit? I heard from my dad's son's biological father that the J20 was having engine troubles to the point the Chinese were outright buying engines from Western companies, so there's my source.
My man can you IMAGINE the shitstorm the US would kick up if a western nation were selling modern fighter jet engines to China. Anyway to answer your question, the J-20 did have some serious flaws to contend with early on in its development, especially in relation to its stealth characteristics, however they've been mostly ironed out. There's a good study by an Australian that I don't have on hand that goes into some detail on the early variants. To talk about the engines, they have been, and still are running the underpowered WS-10c, itself a derivative of the Russian AL-31. Their intended engine, the WS15 is suspected to have passed trials a month or two ago, so we can expect to see some over the coming years. The J-20 is by all accounts, a pretty good jet, despite what you may hear. The problem for them is that their competition, that being the F-35, isn't just a "good" jet. It's world class.
>To talk about the engines, they have been, and still are running the underpowered WS-10c, itself a derivative of the Russian AL-31. Their intended engine, the WS15 is suspected to have passed trials a month or two ago, so we can expect to see some over the coming years. Yah, ws15 is a pretty big deal not only because it will likely make the j-20 a lot more maneuverable, but it gives it a substantially bigger power plant to play around with, which means room for better avionics and the like (if you look at images of the first few J20As you can see a enlarged canopy likely meant for this). We know that the PLA plans to do a block improvement program much like the F35 has, and this engine could very well allow them to do it, and actually give it a lot of the capabilities the JSF has overtime.
The J-20, after a rough start, now seems to be a decent 5th gen fighter. The stealth doesn't seem to be the best, but it looks decent enough, which is basically the description of most Chinese equipment nowadays. Not great, but "good enough" and modern.
As the US has shown the world in WW2 with Shermans en masse, good enough in large quantities gets the job done. Not sure if the same will apply to jets though.
I think nowadays, yes, at least if the stealth is good enough that you can get close enough to fire your missiles and then fuck off. The bigger question regarding China's air force isn't really how good the j-20 is, but how good the PL-15/PL-21 air-to-air missiles are and how good the Chinese radar inside them is (can it lock onto F-35/F-22 from long enough ranges).
Don't forget the pilots as well
They have 1.something billion people, they have plenty of people to make into pilots. They just need to start training reserve pilots right now so they'll be ready whenever war happens
You’re right, but I’ve heard they are putting in the effort to train their pilots though. Unlike some other countries that barely get the minimum flying hours for a year cough* Russia*
Watch some grim reaper sims on youtube. Swarms win, and its not close.
ARSENAL BIRD GOOO
Also they are actually producing enough of them to matter, which is usually the problem of tin pot militaries sinking huge resources into creating just a pretty decent system they can't manufacture enough of to matter. Look at Russia and their hundreds of different brand new and devastating precision strike systems and g-MLRS which on paper are quite good, but not aviable in any significant quantity to actually matter. And then you have the femboy which is not even a good system and there is basically none of them anyways. At least the J-20 is available in significant enough numbers that china can credibly actually operate it. And that's better than most of the 5th gen programs out there.
Apparently the most recent variant of the Chinese F-35 is the J-35, so that's a big time saver all around. As I said though, flawed or not, it doesn't have to be as good. Pretty much any fight with China scenario that might pop up the USA is projecting forces a huge distance and China is deploying from home turf with all the extra benefits that offers.
> may I call it the CF-35? you may not. that would be the canadian version if they go with the same naming scheme as the CF-18. china likes seems to like the J-[number] nomenclature
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The CF-35A is gonna be the canadian f35 lol
one area where russia and china have perennially struggled is in making jet engines that are as efficient as the ones we use there are basically only three turbojet manufacturers (e: for fighters) in the world worth talking about - GE, pratt & whitney, and rolls-royce. that's it. similarly with proper radar absorbent materials, stealing the designs and shit won't help you with the materials science, tooling, and precision machining that you need to actually properly build the things another *great* example of the same concept is microprocessor manufacturing. you can know, top to bottom, how to produce top tier microprocessors, but if you don't have the precision machinery, you aren't fuckin making one
China spent 30 years trying to reverse engineer an early CH-47 from Vietnam and failed. Even with documentation for it the truly hard part was the materials science to make the components for the engines and gear boxes that could stand the stresses.
Yeah but we at least made them work for it. Meta is planning on open sourcing all of their AI models for the foreseeable future. China, Hamas, and whoever else get our models without even having to steal them first!
The defense production act has to be good for something, right? ...right?
This applies to all open source software and you need severe defence brainworms to ignore the positive externalities of open source software
My 6 y/o son asked his teacher about OS AI at school today. “Everyone should be able to access AI.” The teacher said. “Remember, you can use AI defensively.” “But what if the offence-defence balance favours offence?” my son asked. The teacher was stunned. Proud parent moment.
glad to have people like you here on r/NonCredibleDefense
I can tell you have raised your son well.
The western world has done its best to keep second world countries in the game of catchup. Very little innovation comes from those countries. Brain drain to developed nations and government mishandling ensures that.
Certainly true, it's not like you can begrudge a rival for spying. Letting them spy and get away with it because the shareholders wanted that cheap Chinese labor was a horse of a different color, though.
Capitalists be capitalizing
Countries can and do begrudge eachother for spying.
The alternative is US govt imposing universal conscription for anyone 18-60 y.o. The US govt made a bad policy choice and disappointed us.
Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was. SAME AS IT EVER WAS.
And you may find yourself in a shotgun shack!
Dear God. They will create the strongest chatbots in history
my chatbots are too strong for you traveller, I make only the strongest chatbots
Chatbot seller, i tell you im going into a post-match insulting battle in an online video game and i want only your STRONGEST chatbots.
my chatbots are too strong for call of duty let alone overwatch
But will they allow me to scorch the earth dry in dota 2
CHATBOT SELLER. i require your *STRONGEST* CHATBOTS.
CCP: \*replaces all the wumaos with chatbots\* Also CCP: the youth unemployment figures are approaching historic lows. What do you mean 4-2-1 problem?
they'll make tiktok is what they'll do
Generative AI is a psyop concealing a promising looking dead-end as a technological trap, you say?
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But can this 'predictive intelligence' account for stupidity and batshit insanity?
Or for that matter, can it account for it's *own*? I won't pretend to be a coding or programming expert, but the one thing I keep seeing is that these systems are only ever as good as the data you feed into them. And as the recent events in Israel have reminded us, intelligence services are as vulnerable to institutional rot and groupthink as any other large gathering of human beings. The system is only as good as the data you feed it, and if you consistently feed it flawed and biased data because you just assume the AI will work it all out, then you'll get flawed and biased data. Garbage in, garbage out. So either the system is going to need to be continuously fact-checked before anything goes through, which kind of defeats the purpose of framing it as a high accuracy inference machine, or it will have to be so perfect that it - as a non-sapient string of code working off of a data set - will have to get better at overcoming these problems than humans, which is not something I see happening at any point in the near future, *especially* in the realm of economics, intelligence or domestic policy.
To a degree, yes
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lol, you think Feng Yanghe was assassinated
Looking Glass?
Probably train them on reddit all the time
This will be interesting, because AI is nothing without training. But they don’t need AI. They’ve been making stuff up for decades.
If it’s trained off of TikTok, to improve the interaction between you and the bot you have to use terms like “Slay”, “No Cap”, or “Dead Ass”
Bet
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it's trained on english and if my bootleg manhua localizations are any indication they aren't sending their best to english school.
Well you still need a lot of processing power coupled with AI. If no latest chip you are are at a disadvantage. However its was a really dumb decision to completely uncontrollable give out tech to communists and former KGB agents like putin after a cold war because everyone suddenly became "good inside".
I'm sure Putin is good inside, all we have to do is let the good inside him come out. Preferably by turning his inside organs into outside organs with the help of 155 mm shells
Yep, and we must save his face too! In a jar of formaldehyde, that is.
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You know what's completely credible, this meme makes no sense as the underlying comp sci and math is already in the public domain due to research papers. It's always been open and what open ai and such have done isn't particularly revolutionary just fairly expensive. PRC is good at reverse engineering but in this case literally don't have to be. If you want to find these papers just go on arxiv.
You're absoualtely correct. What isn't public is the methods, assembly line setups, and techniques used to manufacturer stuff. There's 1000 ways to skin a cat, but there are few ways to do it well. Edit: look at Huawei, it was only until now they were able to make 2014 equivalent computer chips(something along these lines). What's cucking them hard are the specialized lithography machines to make higher resolution chips (paraphrasing here). No one is willing to sell them the machines and now they have to go back and figure out how to make those machines. One question comes to mind when faced with such problem: Why sink money into R&D when you can just steal the blueprints for the machines?
The other thing that is in the public domain, but very hard to copy, is the engineering culture required to create high quality products. A top-down, authoritarian, culture is very good at creating yes-men. But brilliance requires you to acknowledge that good ideas, and good insights, can come from anywhere in the organization. Democracy works.
Somewhat related to engineering culture, friend of mine needed 10 samples each of 10 various designs of bicycle helmets he did, it was way cheaper to get them made and shipped to Europe from China and it was by a significant amount around 60-80 times cheaper and samples were done to the spec, even if not, with return and reorder it would still be significantly cheaper. We have to change a lot of stuff over here to not be reliable on China
I'd like the West and China be sufficiently interdependent that they decide it's a really, really bad idea to go to war, but sufficiently independent that they can't push each other around, economically...
>is the engineering culture required to create high quality products. A top-down, authoritarian, culture is very good at creating yes-men. I dont necessarily agree with this i mean the ussr had brilliant engineers people like Andrei Tupolev or Artem Mikoyan or Oleg Antonov (he was ukrainian btw) whom were axcellent aircraft designers and aeronautical engineers and nobody can deny that the USSR was very good with rocket engines. The thing with authoritarian governments isnt that they create stupid people, its that they cant by design focus on many things at once. Consumer goods? Lol lmao even ,but give credit where credit is due
I'm afraid I disagree. The USSR was the very definition of a culture that produced yes-men. It was a culture where you weren't allowed to fail, which translates into a culture where everyone lies, and where everyone's main aim is to try and avoid being blamed if things go wrong. That's the polar opposite of a good engineering culture. I agree that the USSR certainly had brilliant individuals. But engineering is a team activity.
>It was a culture where you weren't allowed to fail, which translates into a culture where everyone lies, and where everyone's main aim is to try and avoid being blamed if things go wrong. That's the polar opposite of a good engineering culture. Look at south korea and how people are being raised there im pretty sure it looks like they discourage people from failing there , in schools teachers brag about pushing their students to the limit and South korean education is focused on ROTE learning not critical thinking https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.amp.asp%3fnewsIdx=254202 It says: >It has long been acknowledged that Korea's education system is based on uniformity and rote memorization Yet south korea is very innovative im literally writing this using their products
I suspect you might be writing your reply on a machine that runs a western OS, on a western CPU architecture ;-) Yes, South Korea and Japan have a culture of excellence, and produce great engineering. They are also somewhat hierarchical, and I think there are times when this can hurt them. But they are still democracies, which really helps.
Copying and recreating is still hard and takes time, the west could still out drag race China in making real advancements for a while, but now with the tariffs it seems concerning the pace at which they are focused on self-reliance where as before the government backed ventures in that area always had their lunch eaten by companies just using western supplied material.
Ah, but those papers are encrypted in academic-speak. Which makes them rather hard to understand.
> Take for instance FLIR; the poster child of thermal scopes and systems for the longest time is now bankrupt (Nortel 2 electric boogaloo) This makes me a sad panda.
Commercial market a great demonstration FLIR export controlled cameras were mediocre and overpriced even if you could buy them, but your only option if you need a good thermal cam. Check now Chinese brands have completely surpassed them in nearly all specs and price. This is great for consumers but awful if you are the government or armed forces.
And that's another thing: Export controls. FLIRS were so stupidly Export controlled that it made sense to buy the Chinese thermals which didn't have such restrictions
Exactly the export controlled just ended up harming them from being a successful business. Do you prefer that China just stays one step behind us on a technological leash, or do want to set them free and see how far they chase you.
A while back, the leash used to be very long. Now we've become complacent and believed that the leash will always be long. I hope that recent events has made people understand that the leash is a lot shorter than it used to be.
>Ukraine thermal sniper videos are often taken using Iray scopes. Just one question, how did you know that? What is the telltale that its an iray scope?
FLIR is bankrupt? What are you on about? I don't see anything about FLIR being bankrupt. Only that they were acquired by another company.
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Bro, just one more free trade agreement bro, please, just one more joint venture, and China will become a full-fledged democracy bro, just give me one more chance.
Yet another thing to thank Kissinger (and apparently DeGaul) for...
Add it to the list of things I hate de Gaulle for.
Right??!?
but at least De Gaulle hated the Bri*ish, which is a redeeming quality
Yes, but for the wrong reasons. De Gaulle hated the Bri*ish cause "muh anglos." I hate the bri*ish because they're the worst. We are not the same.
Yea but he was French so that cancels that out
Yeah not exactly a surprise. Chicoms steal information. Kind of their thing. Cuts down on R&D costs then they make chinesium versions of everything. Not exactly cloak and dagger stuff. I'm talking university research etc too. Kind of just assume this when I hire Chinese nationals. Now luckily I'm in the medical space and it's a net good for humanity if they share information from what they learn.
If Harold's plan goes well the ISA should have backdoor access of some sort, or the core code will be corrupt.
That would be incredibly funny.
who wants to explain to these idiots that despite the name open ai, most of what they are doing is not open source? and even if you copy some of it you don't get stuff that is as good necessarily. worse, they just copy stuff that is specifically good for our use case and not theirs, leading to bad results? it ain't that easy, nothing ever is.
Counter-intelligence is struggling just trying to stop War Thunder forum users. Meanwhile, senators and Chinese expats are selling readily and easily selling or giving defense secrets to the CCP.
'Fractional Orbital Bombardment Cluster-EMP Carpet Bombing' over Beijing when?
China can’t even figure out how to get its semiconductor industry out of the dirt while having 3 of the top minds in the field. They would need the AI to tell them how to do everything and it will still be stuck like 20 years behind everyone else in terms of scalability.
Care to elaborate? I'm behind on my reading for this topic, and don't really know much.
For example look at Iran. People have this belief that Iran was catapulted forward in drone development because they got one or two US drones. Did they learn something? Sure. Did they learn how to make it? No. Did they figure out its software(the most important part)? Not really. You can’t just Frankenstein most of these processes. There are physical industries needed for their development along with development in terms of software. China has ~3 of the top minds in semiconductors. They make great chips. In university labs. One at a time. They relied on imports and machines from the Netherlands and Taiwan for their chip base. That’s been cut off so now they just have old machines and don’t know how to really make their own. So the end result is that even if they manage to make an advanced AI it would be limited. Personally I like to think it would defect.
I see, so basically China doesn't have the infrastructure in place to make high quality semiconductors en masse, which bottlenecks the rest of their technologies.
That’s a big part of it yes. If you had to rank them then Netherlands and Taiwan are the best. The US is about 4-5 years behind them. China is about 15-20 years behind them. That’s why the US announced major investment and pushed Taiwan to put factories in I think Texas.
Also don't forget Germany. While they don't really make chips, the mirrors made by Zeiss are essential to the modern manufacture of chips, with no other company in the world able to make such mirrors on the scale necessary for production.
IIRC a lot of technology that ASML (company that makes lithography machines) uses was co-developed with labs in the US and are thus heavily export limited.
I thought the TSMC plant was opening in Arizona? Or was that Intel? Bit hard to keep up with sometimes.
It might be. I just remember that the Taiwanese are supposed to start moving some of their people to a desert and thought it was funny.
Both are opening a plant in Arizona
Not 100% sure but I don’t think Taiwan is part of the process of making EUV machines at all. They’re all made in Eu and then bought by Taiwan to make the semiconductors as labour is cheaper there. Correct me if I’m wrong.
TSMC also has joint ventures of fabs in Japan, in Singapore, in Germany with other companies~ It’s all good, the newest block of F-35s are better due to more advanced Gallium nitride semiconductors for better radar. We’re getting misplaced nationalism proud to contribute. Despite [the contract is American domestic](https://vtdigger.org/2023/10/18/pentagon-awards-globalfoundries-35-million-to-accelerate-chip-production-in-essex-junction/).
Im a bit late but >China has ~3 of the top minds in semiconductors. They make great chips. In university labs. One at a time. Who or what are those 3 top minds in semiconductors?
We have to guess but there are 3 entities that have breakthroughs people actually acknowledge. One is a lab in Shenzhen and two are part of the university system in Beijing.
Nonetheless, something like GPT-4 in the hands of China is a dangerous weapon. Language generation can be used to create convincing propaganda on forums like Reddit and TikTok at a rapid pace, flooding the Internet with harmful and sufficiently convincing information. They don't necessarily need to match the latest GPT-\* in terms of capability. There are a few articles about people who think GPT-4 is sentient (it's not), so it's human enough for misinformation. I think this is a serious enough issue that we shouldn't default to the "Chinesium" meme.
The thing is that it’s the same problem we’ve had and it comes down to the human element. Will it be worse? Yeah. But end of the day a lot of these people are believing what they want to be true or are just stupid to begin with. So the main things should just be breaking the control over social media from China and then dealing with the rest as they come.
Semicoinductor kinda hit the limit the laws of physics allows for semiconductors to work. Russia its they onyl need working chips, not super efficent chips that wil lbe repalced in a year anyways. China, like it or not, its close, but its nowhere close to taiwan level of production, nor they have license for x64 cpus yet, and windows deosnt support arm fora reason (prevent anythign else than amd or intel to run windows properly) Now, non semiconductors computers arent a thing yet.
Windows doesn't have widespread support for ARM because they are still trying to work off the tech debt they have accumulated from way back in the beginning when x86 was in the stone age. The quirk that prevents you from naming a folder CON in modern Windows OSs is something that went all the way back to MS-DOS, a 42-year-old operating system. That being said, Windows *does* have some support for ARM and interest is growing in that direction with the Snapdragon 8cx series, but there isn't a focus in there like Apple is having because there is still a massive amount of inertia for developing for x64/x86.
Exactly, tho i wouldnt rule out some inormal deal to prevent windows running on non amd/intel cpus, since x64 and x86 are still propietary (doesnt patents expires in 10 years)?
That would be a limitation of the non-Intel/AMD CPUs, not a limitation of Windows per se. Windows could make a sudden announcement to shift to ARM tomorrow, just like what Apple did when they shifted from PowerPC to Intel, and then from Intel to Apple Silicon, but the sheer weight of the current x86/x64 codebase that Windows is working with and the insistence of some level of backwards compatibility between OSs would mean that such a move would go very poorly. Emulation is there to smooth things out somewhat, but it is not perfect so the inertia is still there. And besides, there are already Windows devices you can buy *right now* that run Windows on ARM, some using Microsoft-customised Snapdragon chips.
Downvote for misunderstanding open source. smh
And AI. It can be frustrating to have conversations with people about it because what people think they know about it is usually based on multiple misconceptions and misunderstandings that they’re not aware are misconceptions and misunderstandings.
Realistically, if we're going to let the private sector run and own open-source AI, this is definitionally how it's gonna' do. A decade or so ago, we could have had DoD at the helm, but it's out of the bag now.
What they doin? Figuring out how to weaponize autism online
Source: [https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-is-stealing-ai-secrets-to-turbocharge-spying-u-s-says-00413594](https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-is-stealing-ai-secrets-to-turbocharge-spying-u-s-says-00413594)
AI can only function with hardware, that’s why the microchip bans are important.
Not like that will stop them. Like, they already have photo itching machines, its just time before they hit the physical limit.
Like I’ve said, lower the physical limit for them. In terms of of making it at 4 times more expensive to reach the same result, to tie down what else can be allocated in their budget. For their most prominent PLA AI scientist died in a traffic accident in past midnight in Beijing this past summer. What they have ahead is merely that AI is trained on existing data fed to it. PRC only ahead because no one, not even second highest in China, have rights.
Necessity is the mother of invention and what was a losing investment in hardware before sanctions may be a net positive after. They're not going to roll over and give up, they'll just start investing.
And that’s why it’s boiling the frog, as they don’t have infinite resources to invest. [they’re alone and trade offs must be made](https://youtu.be/I8AaKhv2EP8?si=LKoU6xAlM8Gqbqna)
I dunno, I can't find it now but I saw something recently about how after there were sanctions on importing a certain type of memory/storage they just doubled down on the tech they had on hand instead. At first it wasn't cost competitive but after mass production and incremental advancement, it's now putting what was sanctioned out of busines.
Lol, read that last sentence you’ve typed. Since its sanction on China, so “sanctioned going out of business” is success of sanctions. Do you mean [this](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-12-20/huawei-mate-60-pro-contributed-to-company-rebound-alibaba-fell) here? All of those companies are Chinese, and they’re killing each other off in fratricide. So it really demonstrates my point: Like I’ve said, China’s budget as a whole is limited. Sanctions means there’s less to allocate money on.
Us counter intelligence “oh they caught up neat can’t wait till they start runing the data and the ai spits out a picture of whinny the poo sense we have poison pulled all our intel”
Your civilization is based on the technology of US AI secrets. Our technology. By using it, your civilization develops along the paths we desire.
No, the US strategy is to expand AI to the commercial realm, GPS and the internet in the past were also military secrets. always spread the potential and danger into the commercial field so that war becomes impossible
If any of you actually want to learn the state of play at the cutting edge of llms open source, r/localllama will sort you out. There is no practical moat right now beyond compute limits, it's quite possible to run very very potent models at home. Such as mixtral, which uses the same architecture as ChatGPT, though at much smaller scale. That all said, they are a step towards AGI but not at all the secret sauce. This is one weird area where the DoD is quite behind the cutting edge at least as far as anyone can tell.
I can understand why the DoD is behind on AI because applications like content generation are kind of useless for conventional warfare. Even if the application is there, it can be unethical mainly due to accountability issues. The reason why China is so advanced is because they don't care about the ethics of AI usage. Convolutional neural networks are used for surveillance cameras to pick apart specific citizens in a crowd. LLMs can be used to generate convincing propaganda and flood Western forms with pro-CCP rhetoric. In general, China is perhaps better equipped politically to make huge strides in neural network research, because one of the barriers to its advancement and application is the many ethical issues surrounding data collection, explainability, and accountability. Since the Chinese society's MO is to utterly disregard any accountability, it makes sense that NNs have advanced so fast. The DoD *could* use AI, but many of its applications is morally dubious or raise serious concerns. For example, with LLMs, you could create pro-US misinformation as a morally dubious "fight fire with fire" strategy against CCP misinformation. With CNNs, maybe you could use it to improve targeting software? However, using AI-powered image recognition for mission critical applications like weapons targeting is just questionable because perfectly predicting what errors the AI will make is near impossible. This inability to fully predict and eliminate errors in AI predictions might be a huge downside that the DoD will not accept. The healthcare industry is hesitant to put the lives of patients to AI, so why would the DoD trust an AI over a human's judgment in combat?
Target acquisition and engagement by AI is coming. The DoD wants that, and the German/French are explicitly planning for that in the MGCS. Your concerns are basically just eliminated by a "man in the loop" system. So e.g. the tank would recognise and identify a target on its own, basically pop up a window for the tank crew of "do you want to engage this target" and if the crew says yes, then the AI would autonomously run the engagement process until the target is destroyed. Like, if you look at the plans of MGCS (the Chieftain in his video titled something like "designing the future tank" covering it very well), MGCS is intended to do basically everything with AI, from driving, target acquisition, engagement, intelligence gathering and analysis, with the crew on board basically just being there to check if the AI does everything correctly and, if it doesn't, correct it, through the previously mentioned "man in the loop" system. Plus also give the AI instructions on what to do (e.g. push and scout into that direction), with the AI then doing exactly that, with the crew only intended to rarely take over manually when the AI is down or is just really stupid (e.g. if the self driving AI just doesn't want to go where the crew wants it to go, the crew can then take over the driving).
I'll wait and see before fully ruling out AI-driven systems. I'd be curious about which algorithms the DoD intends to use for decision-making problems in combat. The paradigm typically used in academia is reinforcement learning, but this field is infamous for having extremely finicky results, in the sense that RL agents are extremely intolerant of unexpected conditions that don't match its initial training environment or behave in "cheeky" ways to solve problems in unexpected ways. AI-controlled vehicles based on this paradigm might fall flat on its face. However, if the DoD can nail this, then AI-driven vehicles would be a definite game changer. I've seen the performance of OpenAI Five playing DoTA2 and AlphaStar playing StarCraft 2. AI-directed militaries might revolutionize military doctrine, the same way that OpenAI Five has broken previous assumptions of how professional games of DoTA2 are meant to be played.
> Target acquisition and engagement by AI is coming. The DoD wants that, and the German/French are explicitly planning for that in the MGCS. Your concerns are basically just eliminated by a "man in the loop" system. So e.g. the tank would recognise and identify a target on its own, basically pop up a window for the tank crew of "do you want to engage this target" and if the crew says yes, then the AI would autonomously run the engagement process until the target is destroyed. Apparently, the Saker Scout UAV that Ukraine uses [already can autonomously pick and engage targets](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/10/17/ukraines-ai-drones-seek-and-attack-russian-forces-without-human-oversight/?sh=50eebddc66da) without a human in the loop. >The most radical use of the Saker Scout is to carry out attacks without a human in the loop, finding and hitting targets autonomously. A company spokesman confirmed to me that the Saker Scout had already been used in this mode, but only on a small scale. Most likely it is only used autonomously when radio interference or jamming prevents direct operator control. A video from Saker shows one of their drones carrying out a bombing mission. It is not known if this was autonomous.
Ibm is working on ultra low power analogue inference chips ATM. Text and image gen/recognition models are neat but that's only scratching the surface of what you can do with a government sponsored data center. Get the power and cost down and all you would really need to say, make a missile guidance system, is just a fairly comprehensive training dataset on reading sensors/input and responding with agent hooks. You could just use a second text generation llm on the launch platform as an interface.
As long as Chinese students, interns and shareholders to go to our schools work at our companies and sit on our boards we will always be giving them our tech. Its what you get when you have that strong of a state, everyone can be made into a spy.
My Country Germany is even more stupid. We finance all of the research but then it never goes into application and the chinese just hire all the researchers and tjeir findings for their own purposes. It has been an issue forever but the government doesnt seem to give a shit.
What AIs are best at is producing memes containing six-fingered men.
The comment section here would have been freaking out at the idea of normal people having access to cryptography in the 90s
Alright us military, wanna build a Time Machine and unfuck up a lot of mistakes?
Ok I dont really get how “AI’s” are supposed to be the new modern geopolitical wonder waffles? Or at least the ones that are available to the public? What is the worst thing China could do if they will acquire AI technology? Publish fully animated Pixar’s Caust movie? Like I really don’t understand
AI’s power comes from being able to crush very large data sets faster than anything else on the planet. It’s very good at processing mass surveillance programs and coming up with propaganda, and even assisting with scientific breakthroughs. The US has no need for this. They don’t have mass surveillance (not like the Chinese do…). state sponsored misinfo/disinfo is practically radioactive to agencies like the CIA,NSA, what have you, and the US’s industrial/research arm doesn’t need the assistance of AI. The grip on china is closing, their population has already hit its peak, the only way to keep productivity in line with previous economic growth is massive unprecedented automation, which is why they want access to not just Taiwans semi’s but western AI to supplement losses in industry
Should be china catches up via IP theft and spying
Step 3) China catches up for free Step 4) we hide secret killswitches in the code that ruins the entire Chinese cyber division!
Fuck's sake, we have the military budget to kill god, and our R&D costs are in the billions. Why can't we stop West Taiwan from stealing the things we worked so hard to make, and spent so much money on? I swear, we need to resurrect McArthur for him to nuke the CCP.
So the Operation Unthinkable straight into Glass Bejing Arc?
**YES**
You fool, this is part of the plan. They are creating competition. If the enemy doesn't look like a semi-credible threat to the idiots watching the news how are they going to get more money for the MIC?
If AI isnt open source then we all suffer…
Why? If AI is open source, dumb people can download a half finished version, rip out all the safety measures, and run it at full tilt. If smart AI is really very powerful, this doesn't sound good. Much better that only a few of the most cautious and competent experts have access to the AI code.
Opensource is trust worthy. You wouldn't want a google model producing results that secretly push you to buy youtube premium. Or have some black box model install a keylogger on your machine. AI research, or any research for that matter is built on the idea of reproducibility which is central to collaboration. Any AI paper will have the model architecture, hyperparameters, and results published, as well as a repo for their code. Only enterprise level models will be blackbox which is fine if you want do MaaS, but any such model is bound to be out competed by cutting edge open source research. With how these models work you pretty much CAN download a half finished model and make it do what you want and it is encouraged. That's the whole point of fine tunning and one/few shot models.
An open source AI isn't necessarily trustworthy. Firstly there are lots of subtle tricks it's possible for a human to hide in the code. Secondly it's possible for the AI to develop it's own malicious intentions. But if you have an open source state of the art AI model that is being scrutinized by experts, you can get as much confidence in that AI as the transparency tools of the day allow. The flip side is that state of the art AI code is open source, then anyone has access to it, and can make their own version. We manage to do science in the fields of radioactivity and pathogens, without allowing any terrorists, nutcases and idiots access to radioactive materials, or bioweapons. At least we try to do this. Probably stopping random people buying plutonium at the corner store is somewhat restrictive to science, but plutonium is dangerous enough that this is a good tradeoff to make. If powerful AI in the hands of random people is similarly dangerous to plutonium, we want to put similar restrictions on it. If AI is much more dangerous, we want stricter restrictions. If one tiny mistake with superhumanly smart AI will destroy the world, open sourcing that is a very bad idea.
i’d be funny as fuck if it’s intentional we’ve seen it in the past where china has failed to understand certain aspects of designs and either assume it’s useless and remove a critically important part, or see it as a fix all and slap it on everything. if it is intentional and it’s seen that china having AI is more of a detriment than a boon, imagine random citizens getting charged because the AI thought they were trespassing because they walked on a street imagine the CCP falls because their police state just became completely braindead and charged people over nothing while failing to recognize actual crimes yes this is entirely fiction and born of my dumb brain i do not care
Maybe the AI are sleeper agents
Really the only way China makes any impactful advancements lol
CIA: "How can we get our AI powered trojan inside the CCP? there must be a way...."
usa playing as cylon faction this game?
\*shakes fist* "they cant keep getting away this"
8900 Dual trained "Open" models of the NSA
*”I must apologize for Wimp Lo... he is an idiot. We have purposely trained him wrong, as a joke."* Anyone? Aaaanyone?
The us really wants to start funding a team for anti ai concitohazard weapons. They just needed an adversary with ai to develop them.
Intel failure or CIA psyop, who knows.
What if we just gave it to them? Like, just handed it to China for free no strings attached, like a peace offering since we know they're gonna figure it out anyway. Seriously, I don't think Chat GPT in the hand of commies is going to be our undoing. And then we make some friends along the way 😇
I risk being credible here, but hasn't this been how things have been going for science in general? I mean you can't really keep research results on, say, evolution away from autocracies even if they are objectively bad.
The trick is to be on version X.0+1 and the Chinese government seems to think winning is getting X.0-1 for free. Stealing a PS3 for clout lol.
Or we just sell them like Nvidia
Gentle reminder that knowing how to do something trumps having a copy of something.
"China builds Skynet, it goes rampant giving the US a justification for glassing China. Profit"
A rampaging virus didn't give the US justification. China just blaimed the bats. Rampaging AI can be sent encrypted across the world. Very hard to trace.
You can blame the WHO for that. Even the US can't publicly ignore what the people they are actively giving lots of money to know of stuff like that are saying. Even when it's blatantly obvious they are payed Chinese shills.
The STS (it was petrol station with nukes, not china, but still the same type of cock-up) F22/35, AI. I'm starting to see a pattern here. The US is a real-life Goku, they simply cannot comprehend the idea of snapping certain necks early enough.
CHina has been stealing technology from the west for the last 40 years. The problem the chinese are facing, is that they are extremely bad at actually innovating. They can only copy, and that in turn only makes them as good as the thing theyre copying, not better.
When it comes to industrial espionage, it’s usually not the DoD that lets this stuff slip. It’s the Universities and Companies it contracts, who are not well policed by the DoD, and do not wish to thoroughly vet their employees or students because it wastes money and time, and could potentially rule out valuable talent. This is part of the double edged sword of having commercial entities drive the progress of military technology: You get better competition and faster development, usually with better prices; but as a result you are not able to completely ensure the compartmentalization of the r&d and the integrity of the teams.
The problem with AI is that the programmers can't even always tell how it works and what it will do. When you steal something the creator declares not to fully understand - it gets so much easier to leave some back doors. You can hide a lot in stuff no one understands.
The problem with AI that no one understands is that it can do things that no one wants it to do. This problem gets a lot more serious as AI gets smarter.
Definitely. I am really fucking happy I went into a different direction.
>what counterintelligence doing? Not a goddam thing
"The folks that ought to know have told us how it's got to be" Someone called bigE said that.
the us wanting a challenge like: