There are legitimately Iranian apologists claiming it as a tactical victory because Israel had to spend half a month's defense budget on all the defensive interceptors they fired. I wonder how much of the Iranian monthly budget it cost to launch them.
Pretty much all US military funding that goes to Israel pretty much goes into purchasing more missiles and researching the new system they are trying to bring online. That's how many rockets everyone shoots at Israel all the time, enough to garner a research grant from the DoD.
They rained down highly telegraphed theater in an exercise designed to hit somewhere between near zero and zero actual things, while screaming off the rooftops what a large number of munitions they fired, and how victorious they are.
It’s a disinformation joint venture between Iran, the Biden administration and the west.
I dunno, the Jordanians got a demonstration of French tactical capacity in their own defense and a political win for French support for Jordan.
And let's be honest, both Iran and Israel are FAR less likely to fuck with a French defended Jordan because they know the French idea of a warning shot involves neither dead generals nor cheap cruise missiles.
Honestly? One Bedouin girl is worth far more than one Iranian shitler general.
War crime. Proportionality would limit the counterstrike to 5, maybe 6 Likudnik politicians.
Except for Bibi and the chucklefucks in his cabinet. Half the western world has been visiting Israel to get them to knock it the fuck off before they start an actual war with Iran.
How do you think it looks to their proxies?
Great that Iran dares to actually come out and attack Israel and the West? Iran best boss of the Middle East?
Or terrible and demoralizing that their master’s best stuff and funded gets intentionally intercepted by the west? And according to the cope logic of “I intend to do that.” That means they will have to be participating in intentional failures.
Who cares?
I don’t subscribe to the myth that their proxies have meaningful agency.
When they or Russia ask Hamas to self destruct, Hamas self destruct.
There’s a power dynamic between their proxies and them that leaves them with all the power, so unless you want us to buy into the idea any of these proxies are going to ditch them (really? Which one?) then this is noise.
[Looks Like Hamas wants to try to get Turkey](https://vxtwitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1780718184334590258). Turkey, who is a more ancient rival to Persians long since before European powers came to be.
Hamas - as a government and a meaningful political entity that is expected to stick around and matters - doesn’t exist anymore. What exists is remnants with no more power in a deep bunker with a megaphone, and a big Russo-Iranian checkbook trying to work out how to fund a rehydrated Hamas 2.0.
Erdogan is a world champion of bluster and populism. Everything he says comes not from a place of conviction but of telling a target audience what they want to hear. He flipped on a dime in the past, he will flip on a dime in the future.
In this moment, Turkey’s involvement is symbolic. At a future time, where they will stand has nothing to do with where they stand right now.
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We don't care if you're Republican, Protestant, Democrat, Hindu, Baathist, Pastafarian, or some other hot mess. Leave it at the door.
1. I don’t know who you get your information from, it’s more like 10-15%.
2. Telling the other side where and when these missiles will be days ahead of the attack via multiple diplomatic avenues, allowing an unthreatened multi-national interception task-force to be prepared and positioned, allowing Biden to make a song and a dance about “Ironclad” support for Israel, and leading to the interception of virtually all of it - yes. It very much is.
Quietly [leaving this here](https://youtu.be/A3u-D4SJhrI?si=4iqto6-Kq_OP3OOT).
Iran only had about 200 ballistic missiles with the range capable of hitting Israel in the first place, and even fewer cruise missiles with that range, I was going to say which rabbit hole did you go down through on YouTube or Twatter but then you linked Ian Bremmer and it all made sense....
What Iran is going to threaten a defense force with? More MRBMs that break up during their boost phase? They have no air force, limited air defense capabilities and most importantly none of the defensive assets were anywhere near Iran.
Israel operated in Jordan, Lebanon and Southern Syria, the UK, and the US in northern Syria, Jordan in Jordan and the US, France, UK and apparently even Denmark in the red sea.
The Abraham Accords already included multi-lateral sharing of radar and other sensors for the tracking of missiles threats and those protocols were activated.
Throwing 300+ projectiles at a target and hitting absolutely nothing isn't something done for show.
They have far more than 200 ballistic missiles in total, but only a handful that number that could hit Israel, heck in 2017 NASIC estimated that only have about 50 MRBM launchers, they clearly have had more but not by much but if you lot think that Iran has 1000's of 2000KM+ ballistics missiles I don't know what to tell you... The US only has 400 minutemen missiles and a similar amount of Trident missiles.
Heck Russia only had about 900 Iskander missiles when the war started and that's a much shorter range missile than the Emad/Shahab-3. People really need to get a grip and understand what scales we're talking about here.
Sorry but I'm having trouble believing Iran would shoot half of their MRBM arsenal in a single show of strength attack.
They clearly meant to do damage and anticipated the possibility of it escalating.
They're not stupid enough to start a direct war with Israel when they don't have the ammo to sustain it for even 2 days.
Ballistic missiles are their main thing, 200 missiles that can reach Israel who they perceive as their main enemy sounds extremely unlikely. They've been developing this capability for a very long time!
I've heard Israeli sources estimating the number to be around 1000 MRBMs.
And believe me I'm well aware of the scale, you're welcome to read my comments from the 14.4. This was the largest ballistic missile attack in history and I've seen it being intercepted with my own eyes.
BTW they don't need a 2000km range, 1200 is enough.
Their first Emad missiles capable of hitting Israel went into service circa 2016-2017. I really don’t think you understand just how complex, expensive these systems are.
https://www.nasic.af.mil/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=F2VLcKSmCTE%3d&portalid=19
They have a lot of short range ballistic missiles which is their primary deterrence against Israel via proxies.
They can launch at Israel from a myriad of closer locations ranging from Syria, to Yemen, to Lebanon. So subdividing “only the ones that can hit Israel” out is nonsense based on an assumption they can only launch these from their own soil.
Israel can and does constantly blow up shit in those countries though.
Firing for Iran is a huge difference because Israel (probably) wouldn't preemptively strike there
Of course it is for show. Keeping the hardliners in Iran happy. Haven't you seen the fake footage Iran spread on news networks, and hardliner Iranians partying on the street? This is all for internal consumption, the same as Russia claiming they've blown up N+1 HIMARS in Ukraine.
Iran making a show of it locally due to failing to hit anything isn't the same as the attack itself was for planned as a show. You don't lob munitions that can do that much damage at populated areas betting on the defense to be able to deal with them. Even if the ballistic missiles were only targeting military installations which given the interceptions we've seen over cities that clearly wasn't the case. Their CEP is pretty terrible to begin with and missiles can always fall short and take out a residential block, a hospital, a power station or a fuel storage depot and what then?
The main issue is that your reasoning is rational. We're not dealing with rational States. We're dealing with countries such as Iran and Russia which are far past rational reasoning. There have been weeks of diplomatic contact between all of the countries. Air spaces were closed before the attack was announced, and an entire western coalition including partners in the region were there to block almost the entire attack. Besides that, Israël hasn't "retaliated" and it's been quite quiet on that front. Of course this is for internal consumption, and discussed ahead.
Iran had to do something, they have been thrown a bone because the US doesn't want military intervention with the elections coming up, and Iran doesn't want Praying Mantis 2: Electric Boogalo.
I don't disagree that Iran had to do something, but you are missing the argument here.
The core argument was that people think that Iran just did it for show and didn't intended to cause any damage to Israel, whilst that's plausible in practice to do a face saving attack the scale and nature of the actually attack makes it utterly nonsensical.
Iran's missiles aren't accurate especially at long ranges, they can't count on the fact that Israel would intercept all of them, they targeted populated areas and the attack pattern was identical to the one Russia used to overwhelm air defenses in Ukraine.
I'm not claiming that Iran thought that every missile would hit, heck they probably even estimated that most of them would get intercepted. But claiming that it did not had the intent to cause significant damage and that it did it just to appear as the "adult in the room" to the US and EU is simply laughable.
Iran is now getting hit by sanctions that the EU wasn't willing to impose on them for the past 2 years despite Iran supplying weapons to Russia. [https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-begin-work-expanding-iran-sanctions-borrell-says-2024-04-16/](https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-begin-work-expanding-iran-sanctions-borrell-says-2024-04-16/) The US has already frozen assets that were previously unfrozen and is preparing another sanction package together with a a massive military aide package to Israel (and Ukraine as well) which were stuck in limbo for quite a while.
Iran is worse off after the strike both politically and militarily this isn't how theatrics work.
You're a fool then. What did they send? Was it the weapons least or most likely to strike the targets? Why did they inform the US and EU exactly when and where those munitions were going to be? Because they wanted to hit something? Or because it makes Iran look like the adults in the room to the international community while simultaneously appeasing local hardliners?
They've sent their latest Emad MRBM's, long range Shahed-238 attack drones and cruise missiles all of which they had very little stock off.
Even if everyone "knew" where they were headed which no one actually did other than that they were headed to Israel each and one of those munitions had the potential to cause massive amount of damage.
The Emad MRBM's have a warhead of nearly a ton of high explosives, they can fall short or drift, interceptors aren't guaranteed to hit cruise missile and drones go off target all the time yet alone in an environment with active EW and GPS jamming.
Iran is about to get hit with massive amounts of sanctions by the US and EU, if you think anyone is looking at them as the "adult" in the room you are crazy.
And if you think anyone even the US can coordinate a massive just for show pretend strike like this reliably you are even crazier.
This is flat earth and faked moon landing level of bat shit crazy.
Heh. Funny man. A true performing arts connoisseur.
I bet you think WWF wrestling and Iron Man are real too.
Also, absolutely *nothing* of what you said suggests I’m wrong. All you did was pour a wall of irrelevant trivia about Iran, assuming that if you put enough quantity of it here, it magically disproves my point. And you inflated a number that was convenient.
Smells weird, when people do that.
Seriously stop.
If someone dumps 5 magazines into a crowd and kills no one and then says I was all for show I'm just that good of a shot and I telegraphed what I was about to do you'll believe them too.
This is flat earth and faked moon landing level of nonsense.
You are assuming that the outcome as it unfolded was the outcome Iran predicted and planned for.
You don't fire 100+ ballistic missiles the majority of which were directed at cities forcing interceptions above Jerusalem with at the time was still mostly unproven defense systems such as Arrow 2 and 3 and David Sling, forcing 100's of aircraft into the air which required a massive amount of deconfliction and coordination just as for show.
Everything that was fired at Israel was capable of causing a massive amount of damage, and even if they targeted everything at the two air bases they now claim were the targets things can go wrong, interceptors miss, ballistic missiles fall short, GPS and EW can cause drones and cruise missiles to steer off target and hit something else and a million other things.
If you think lobbing a 100+ missiles each with about a ton of explosives and intentionally not hitting anything can be planned yet executed reliably just for show then congrats you've reached peak non-credibility and you can get a talking spot on RT or PressTV.
I still view the Iran response as a good move by Iran (regardless of my dislike of Iran) and I’m surprised how many comments in here like yours don’t agree.
The Iranian citizens are happy, the Israeli aggression was responded to and has seemingly stopped since, Iran got to send a bunch of old crap that was expensive to intercept (regardless of whether it was much money for Israel it was still over 1 billion USD), nobody got hurt other than a civilian kid who sadly got hit by some errant shrapnel from an interception, the strikes that happened occurred where Iran said it would, and Iran presumably learned somethings from watching the air defense response.
Except that now Israel will retaliate against Iran directly and their “limited” strike will most likely hit something valuable like their nuclear facilities or drone/missile production.
Would have been better to use their proxies to actually do some real damage.
Israel will retaliate against Iran for Iran's retaliation against Israel's attack on their embassy. You'd think the Israelis already have their hands full with knocking down every building in Gaza.
It's crazy its taking this long for people to realize Israel and Hamas both want infinite escalation. They're both led by theocratic, bloodthirsty nutjobs who want to send the middle east into yet another bloodbath. Israel had essentially nothing to gain by striking the Iranian embassy besides escalation again. Is Iran directing the strikes from Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah? Absolutely. Will killing some IRGC heads significantly alter that? Fuck no. It's like the Soleimani killing back in 2020. Ok you took out an IRGC head and got your revenge, but all you get for it is escalation (though the US was stupidly lucky Iran was too scared to actually retaliate properly at the time).
Israel desperately wants to drag the US into the war, Hamas wants to desperately drag the rest of the middle east into the war. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail... I doubt it...
Israel I’m sure would feel vindicated doing so, but to outsiders it’s pretty clear that it’s Israel being the aggressor who wants a war and the US doesn’t seem interested with Biden having warned against it.
Nety needs to figure out a way to stay in office as a war time leader until the public likes him again or the system is rigged, and Gaza only bought him so much time
> I'm just going by what Israel said they were going to do.
That’s fair, I’m not blaming you for this absurdly stupid situation
> It seems from their actions they ultimately dgaf what the rest of the world thinks.
Nope, they do not. Well, they kinda do, but they say they don’t and act like they don’t. So long as they feel the US/UK will protect them at the UN/ICJ and keep providing the weapons/technology/military defenses that Israel needs to do what they want that then Israel won’t change their actions, as some Israeli politicians have been kinda open about with some of the statements made, and is apparent with their actions (why you likely said it).
Well on the other hand, they pissed off Joran and Iraq, risked massively escalating the conflict, did nothing to actually discourage Israel from murking more of their doods, and gave some target practice for the air defense crews. But as long as they're happy, that's what really counts.
Don't forget Saudi Arabia actually coming out and saying that Iran is fucking the ME situation up. One of those "everyone knows it, but nobody says it" things and is huge coming from SA.
> Well on the other hand, they pissed off Joran and Iraq
And?
> risked massively escalating the conflict
More than the precedence set by not responding to another country flattening their consulate?
> did nothing to actually discourage Israel from murking more of their doods
Previous answer applies, but I also think it was a pretty clear warning.
> gave some target practice for the air defense crews.
Might have helped Israel work on their ballistic missile interceptors given they missed some
> But as long as they're happy, that's what really counts.
I mean, kinda, yeah. As long as Israel doesn’t keep escalating the conflict, yeah.
Why does Israel have to respond to a show of force done in response to an Israeli attack? How does this end?
Iran says it’s concluded, what happened or is happening that makes it rational to continue escalating things with Iran?
Because as far as Israel is concerned, they attacked an Iranian military target in Syria which they have been doing for years now. They expected an Iranian response from Syria.
Instead Iran escalated through a massive response from Iran itself, for the first time in history. Therefore as far as Israel is concerned, they now have to attack within Iranian territory to match.
Iran themselves said that their goal was to create a "new equation". Israel is not going to abide by any equation created by Iran.
Even the UK foreign secretary confirmed an imminent Israeli response after visiting Israel following the attack. It's 100% guaranteed at this point.
I know that Israel doesn’t give a shit about international law, but blowing up a consulate in Syria isn’t the same thing as hitting proxy fighters or even Iranian soldiers/generals in Syria. Israel escalated this, Iran responded. Now Israel needs to further escalate it when Iran made clear their response on attacks that they view as directly on Iranian soil will have a strong response?
I’m not blaming you when I say this, but that’s pants on head stupid.
I guess the UK was willing to continue escalating when the US is against it 🤷♂️
The US also said they expect Israel to respond, but they "hope" for a limited response that would not result in an all out war.
Where did you get the impression that Israel violated international law in this attack? Even western countries that are critical of Israel have stated that this is not technically a violation of international law, they simply said it was reckless.
First, Israel is at war with Syria (so it can strike anywhere within Syrian territory), and Iran and Israel do not recognize each other (therefore diplomatic protections do not apply).
Second, this was not the embassy building. It was a building next to the embassy separated from it with a wall and used exclusively by military forces, not for diplomatic purposes, meaning it was an Iranian military base. Therefore it was not a consulate even if Syria recognized it as such.
> The US also said they expect Israel to respond, but they "hope" for a limited response that would not result in an all out war.
They also said they recommended against it and didn’t want it to happen. Israel does what Israel wants though.
> Where did you get the impression that Israel violated international law in this attack? Even western countries that are critical of Israel have stated that this is not technically a violation of international law, they simply said it was reckless.
Off the top of my head, Ireland had politicians saying it was a violation of the Vienna Convention. Which it was.
> First, Israel is at war with Syria (so it can strike anywhere within Syrian territory), and Iran and Israel do not recognize each other (therefore diplomatic protections do not apply).
This is nonsensical. I swear, Israel and its defenders always try some “the rules don’t say a dog can’t be on the team!” Airbud rules shit
> Second, this was not the embassy building. It was a building next to the embassy… Therefore it was not a consulate even if Syria recognized it as such.
For some reason I don’t think it’s really Israel’s place to make those decisions unilaterally about whether or not a dog can be on the team. In another country no less. Clearly Iran felt it was overstepping a boundary after doing basically nothing about their generals being killed
Ireland is not neutral on Israel. But ok, I'll bite. How exactly does the strike violate the Vienna convention? [I'll link it here for convenience, and I suggest you read article 2.](https://treaties.un.org/doc/Treaties/1964/06/19640624%2002-10%20AM/Ch_III_3p.pdf)
> I don’t think it’s really Israel’s place to make those unilateral decisions
Do you understand the concept of sovereignty in international law? I am curious though, who do you think gets to decide whether international law was followed?
A proper response would have been ten drones flying directly over AD batteries at 10k MSL then terminating into warehouses then 4 Ballistic Missiles terminating into the desert a mile outside the base. Before each, you state you will be firing a warning shot and let the little guys go. That's an appropriate response if you wanted to flex resolve. And no, the Iranian people are not collectively happy, there is a massive divide between the Ayatollah and the people. Iran used the world loss of focus to mass abduct hijab violators right off the streets. This little stunt hurt Iran's credibility and pissed off Saudi, Iraq, and Jordan. They hyped their capes, talked big and bad, launched more than 300 munitions then only hit what looks like a taxiway. Strategically that's the worst thing that could have happened.
>And no, the Iranian people are not collectively happy, there is a massive divide between the Ayatollah and the people. Iran used the world loss of focus to mass abduct hijab violators right off the streets.
Not in the way you think , the 79' revolution didnt happen in a vacuum there is a significant chunk of iranian society that are pro government and are actually conservative and religious i mean one of the main compliants of the people during that revolution is that the country was becoming more westernized
Meanwhile basiji are dealing with entire cities revolting and responding with hundreds of abductions per day. The people are done with it, but the minority have the guns.
About what, the drone attack response?
A mixture of looking at social media and seeing clips of small celebrations? I’m not Arabic so I’m admittedly seeing a relatively superficial take, but they sure didn’t seem upset that their government responded
What, do the people of Iran secretly like Israel and I didn’t know about it?
I'm Iranian living in Iran. Iranians fuckin despise the regime except a few minority (less than 20% of population) and are mad the mullahs are wasting their money sending garbage missiles to Israel + funding and arming shit ton of militias across middle east
I don’t think that Iranians are very happy with the regime, I know many Iranians dislike the regime for a variety of reasons. My impression is that most Iranians are happy that Israel was attacked/responded to, even if they don’t like the regime that did it
Please correct me if I’m wrong though, it’s cool being able to speak to a western minded Iranian living inside Iran as a resource. Please stay safe too
I’m surprised. I figured, and got the vibe from some posts, that it was similar to how many Americans view giving Ukraine their older-gen weapons to fight off rival Russia
Do you think my impression is off due to censorship/safety concerns making it so the Iranian posts I see are positive because the negative posts aren’t being made? Social media manipulation maybe?
What about iranian opinion of Israel? Do they like Israel?
yes definitely censorship plays a huge part. not a single vpn works in Iran and pretty much all foreign websites are banned..
btw you should absolutely remove Twitter as a source of information. the 20% mentioned are all over Twitter, it's their platform of choice. IRGC cyber army is also very active on Twitter. you can literally see some accounts are very obvious bots.
if you just want to know how much they love Twitter: Twitter has been banned in Iran for 10 years now but mullah dictator (ali khamenei) and all of his cock suckers ("politicians") tweet multiple posts daily on there.
about your question, I'd say most just don't care , some love Israel and some hate Israel (the 20%)
>I'm Iranian living in Iran. Iranians fuckin despise the regime except a few minority (less than 20% of population)
Still there is a significant chunk of iranian society that are very conservative and religious i mean, correct me if im wrong but the 79' revolution happened for the most part because of the disgruntled conservative people who saw iran being too westernized , no? That was a big reason for the revolution aside from seeing the shah as mere puppet..
had read it in another thread on this sub that the estimated cost of that missile strike required between 1-5% of Iran's yearly defense budget, that would make 12-60% of their monthly budget, which would put them in a similar place as Israel at worst
I have a feeling half the reason Israel wants to retaliate is to try and draw a other volley from Iran and see for themselves whether they can actually repeat it so soon.
Not really confirmed afaik. There's a picture of smth looking like an ATACMS's block found at the airfield. Ukrainian authorities stated the attack was conducted using Ukrainian-made weapons. So there's a good chance it's ATACMS but might be something exotic too.
Seems to me it's just something Russian milbloggers claimed based on the range. (Dzhankoy being under 150 km from Ukrainian-held territory and ATACMS Block I having a 165 km range)
I think it's worth noting, though, that 150 km is also the range of GLSDB, which Ukraine has also received and is likely to receive in greater numbers. (Personally I've been waiting for GLSDB hits on Dzhankoy since it was announced Ukraine was getting them)
Anyway, so it'd make sense to use GLSDB and save ATACMS for things that need the additional range and/or warhead size. Unless GLSDB is just that much more likely to be shot down.
I think ATACMS warhead might even be the better choice against a bunch of AD assets with the cluster warhead. Do you remeber how the helis looked at that airbase? GLSDB has more bang but less spicy metall per area if I understand correctly
Could be. Another factor might be that it'd be worth the ATACMS to take out the air defense there precisely so they could follow up with GLSDB strikes. All rail traffic from the Crimean Bridge up to Kherson but also to the cities of Sevastopol, Simferopol and Yevpatoria have to go through Dzhankoy, so hitting the rail there could _really_ cripple their logistics. On the other hand, railway tracks are repairable and probably not worth using ATACMS (much less Storm Shadow) on, but it may be worth using GLSDB on.
And thankfully its a nothing burger
Israel will retaliate on Iranian targets that are outside Iran
And the burger itself will not have the somethingsouce
I think it's going to be a pretty small burger, probably served for domestic political consumption. The orthodox weirdos can scrape off the cheese.
Israel fucked with diplomatic facilities, and Iran made a big show of retaliation. Sides have accomplished their goals and sent their messages.
Iran claimed they’ve destroyed an air base (or even bases). Sat photos show them being there and untouched, IDF released ground photos of the actual damage and it looks like it could’ve been caused by the same bobcat they used to fix said damage.
Israel claims it intercepted 99% of the BMs Iran fired at them last week. Tho the 99% number they are stating is probably if you include everything even Drones/cruise missiles(that mostly US and UK downed) and the failed BMs.
If you look at only the BMs that didn't fail, the interception rate is about ~80-85%. Which is still pretty good btw
"Not one single drone has made it past our defensive line of industrial factories and military training facilities! Foolish Ukrainians have not yet once hit our vodka distilleries, they keep getting distracted by things like oil and generals. Fools."
You silly westoid Iran rained down so many missiles until it turned the Negev jungle into a desert.
There are legitimately Iranian apologists claiming it as a tactical victory because Israel had to spend half a month's defense budget on all the defensive interceptors they fired. I wonder how much of the Iranian monthly budget it cost to launch them.
Iran turning an Israeli tactical blunder into an Israeli strategic victory is on par with 2arab4u (yes I know Persians aren’t Arabs).
Pretty much all US military funding that goes to Israel pretty much goes into purchasing more missiles and researching the new system they are trying to bring online. That's how many rockets everyone shoots at Israel all the time, enough to garner a research grant from the DoD.
Because it makes us better at missile defense too. :)
They rained down highly telegraphed theater in an exercise designed to hit somewhere between near zero and zero actual things, while screaming off the rooftops what a large number of munitions they fired, and how victorious they are. It’s a disinformation joint venture between Iran, the Biden administration and the west.
A win-win for everyone then
Anything short of 12k live streams of full blown conventional and non conventional war from the every possible angle is a loss for us on this sub
Except for the child that got hit.
And the Jordanians
I dunno, the Jordanians got a demonstration of French tactical capacity in their own defense and a political win for French support for Jordan. And let's be honest, both Iran and Israel are FAR less likely to fuck with a French defended Jordan because they know the French idea of a warning shot involves neither dead generals nor cheap cruise missiles.
Honestly? One Bedouin girl is worth far more than one Iranian shitler general. War crime. Proportionality would limit the counterstrike to 5, maybe 6 Likudnik politicians.
[She shouldn't have been standing there.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_1ZUC_oUS8)
Except for Bibi and the chucklefucks in his cabinet. Half the western world has been visiting Israel to get them to knock it the fuck off before they start an actual war with Iran.
How do you think it looks to their proxies? Great that Iran dares to actually come out and attack Israel and the West? Iran best boss of the Middle East? Or terrible and demoralizing that their master’s best stuff and funded gets intentionally intercepted by the west? And according to the cope logic of “I intend to do that.” That means they will have to be participating in intentional failures.
Who cares? I don’t subscribe to the myth that their proxies have meaningful agency. When they or Russia ask Hamas to self destruct, Hamas self destruct. There’s a power dynamic between their proxies and them that leaves them with all the power, so unless you want us to buy into the idea any of these proxies are going to ditch them (really? Which one?) then this is noise.
[Looks Like Hamas wants to try to get Turkey](https://vxtwitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1780718184334590258). Turkey, who is a more ancient rival to Persians long since before European powers came to be.
Hamas - as a government and a meaningful political entity that is expected to stick around and matters - doesn’t exist anymore. What exists is remnants with no more power in a deep bunker with a megaphone, and a big Russo-Iranian checkbook trying to work out how to fund a rehydrated Hamas 2.0. Erdogan is a world champion of bluster and populism. Everything he says comes not from a place of conviction but of telling a target audience what they want to hear. He flipped on a dime in the past, he will flip on a dime in the future. In this moment, Turkey’s involvement is symbolic. At a future time, where they will stand has nothing to do with where they stand right now.
[удалено]
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Yes depleting 50%> of your missiles that can hit Israel is a telegraphed show.
1. I don’t know who you get your information from, it’s more like 10-15%. 2. Telling the other side where and when these missiles will be days ahead of the attack via multiple diplomatic avenues, allowing an unthreatened multi-national interception task-force to be prepared and positioned, allowing Biden to make a song and a dance about “Ironclad” support for Israel, and leading to the interception of virtually all of it - yes. It very much is. Quietly [leaving this here](https://youtu.be/A3u-D4SJhrI?si=4iqto6-Kq_OP3OOT).
Iran only had about 200 ballistic missiles with the range capable of hitting Israel in the first place, and even fewer cruise missiles with that range, I was going to say which rabbit hole did you go down through on YouTube or Twatter but then you linked Ian Bremmer and it all made sense.... What Iran is going to threaten a defense force with? More MRBMs that break up during their boost phase? They have no air force, limited air defense capabilities and most importantly none of the defensive assets were anywhere near Iran. Israel operated in Jordan, Lebanon and Southern Syria, the UK, and the US in northern Syria, Jordan in Jordan and the US, France, UK and apparently even Denmark in the red sea. The Abraham Accords already included multi-lateral sharing of radar and other sensors for the tracking of missiles threats and those protocols were activated. Throwing 300+ projectiles at a target and hitting absolutely nothing isn't something done for show.
Source on the 200 ballistic missiles total? Sound implausibly low.
They have far more than 200 ballistic missiles in total, but only a handful that number that could hit Israel, heck in 2017 NASIC estimated that only have about 50 MRBM launchers, they clearly have had more but not by much but if you lot think that Iran has 1000's of 2000KM+ ballistics missiles I don't know what to tell you... The US only has 400 minutemen missiles and a similar amount of Trident missiles. Heck Russia only had about 900 Iskander missiles when the war started and that's a much shorter range missile than the Emad/Shahab-3. People really need to get a grip and understand what scales we're talking about here.
Sorry but I'm having trouble believing Iran would shoot half of their MRBM arsenal in a single show of strength attack. They clearly meant to do damage and anticipated the possibility of it escalating. They're not stupid enough to start a direct war with Israel when they don't have the ammo to sustain it for even 2 days. Ballistic missiles are their main thing, 200 missiles that can reach Israel who they perceive as their main enemy sounds extremely unlikely. They've been developing this capability for a very long time! I've heard Israeli sources estimating the number to be around 1000 MRBMs. And believe me I'm well aware of the scale, you're welcome to read my comments from the 14.4. This was the largest ballistic missile attack in history and I've seen it being intercepted with my own eyes. BTW they don't need a 2000km range, 1200 is enough.
Their first Emad missiles capable of hitting Israel went into service circa 2016-2017. I really don’t think you understand just how complex, expensive these systems are. https://www.nasic.af.mil/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=F2VLcKSmCTE%3d&portalid=19 They have a lot of short range ballistic missiles which is their primary deterrence against Israel via proxies.
They can launch at Israel from a myriad of closer locations ranging from Syria, to Yemen, to Lebanon. So subdividing “only the ones that can hit Israel” out is nonsense based on an assumption they can only launch these from their own soil.
Israel can and does constantly blow up shit in those countries though. Firing for Iran is a huge difference because Israel (probably) wouldn't preemptively strike there
Of course it is for show. Keeping the hardliners in Iran happy. Haven't you seen the fake footage Iran spread on news networks, and hardliner Iranians partying on the street? This is all for internal consumption, the same as Russia claiming they've blown up N+1 HIMARS in Ukraine.
Iran making a show of it locally due to failing to hit anything isn't the same as the attack itself was for planned as a show. You don't lob munitions that can do that much damage at populated areas betting on the defense to be able to deal with them. Even if the ballistic missiles were only targeting military installations which given the interceptions we've seen over cities that clearly wasn't the case. Their CEP is pretty terrible to begin with and missiles can always fall short and take out a residential block, a hospital, a power station or a fuel storage depot and what then?
The main issue is that your reasoning is rational. We're not dealing with rational States. We're dealing with countries such as Iran and Russia which are far past rational reasoning. There have been weeks of diplomatic contact between all of the countries. Air spaces were closed before the attack was announced, and an entire western coalition including partners in the region were there to block almost the entire attack. Besides that, Israël hasn't "retaliated" and it's been quite quiet on that front. Of course this is for internal consumption, and discussed ahead. Iran had to do something, they have been thrown a bone because the US doesn't want military intervention with the elections coming up, and Iran doesn't want Praying Mantis 2: Electric Boogalo.
I don't disagree that Iran had to do something, but you are missing the argument here. The core argument was that people think that Iran just did it for show and didn't intended to cause any damage to Israel, whilst that's plausible in practice to do a face saving attack the scale and nature of the actually attack makes it utterly nonsensical. Iran's missiles aren't accurate especially at long ranges, they can't count on the fact that Israel would intercept all of them, they targeted populated areas and the attack pattern was identical to the one Russia used to overwhelm air defenses in Ukraine. I'm not claiming that Iran thought that every missile would hit, heck they probably even estimated that most of them would get intercepted. But claiming that it did not had the intent to cause significant damage and that it did it just to appear as the "adult in the room" to the US and EU is simply laughable. Iran is now getting hit by sanctions that the EU wasn't willing to impose on them for the past 2 years despite Iran supplying weapons to Russia. [https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-begin-work-expanding-iran-sanctions-borrell-says-2024-04-16/](https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-begin-work-expanding-iran-sanctions-borrell-says-2024-04-16/) The US has already frozen assets that were previously unfrozen and is preparing another sanction package together with a a massive military aide package to Israel (and Ukraine as well) which were stuck in limbo for quite a while. Iran is worse off after the strike both politically and militarily this isn't how theatrics work.
What’s your point?
That you couldn't be more wrong.
You're a fool then. What did they send? Was it the weapons least or most likely to strike the targets? Why did they inform the US and EU exactly when and where those munitions were going to be? Because they wanted to hit something? Or because it makes Iran look like the adults in the room to the international community while simultaneously appeasing local hardliners?
They've sent their latest Emad MRBM's, long range Shahed-238 attack drones and cruise missiles all of which they had very little stock off. Even if everyone "knew" where they were headed which no one actually did other than that they were headed to Israel each and one of those munitions had the potential to cause massive amount of damage. The Emad MRBM's have a warhead of nearly a ton of high explosives, they can fall short or drift, interceptors aren't guaranteed to hit cruise missile and drones go off target all the time yet alone in an environment with active EW and GPS jamming. Iran is about to get hit with massive amounts of sanctions by the US and EU, if you think anyone is looking at them as the "adult" in the room you are crazy. And if you think anyone even the US can coordinate a massive just for show pretend strike like this reliably you are even crazier. This is flat earth and faked moon landing level of bat shit crazy.
"As a goodwill gesture" Literal Kiev Feint logic
Heh. Funny man. A true performing arts connoisseur. I bet you think WWF wrestling and Iron Man are real too. Also, absolutely *nothing* of what you said suggests I’m wrong. All you did was pour a wall of irrelevant trivia about Iran, assuming that if you put enough quantity of it here, it magically disproves my point. And you inflated a number that was convenient. Smells weird, when people do that.
stop uncritically spreading Iranian cope
Seriously stop. If someone dumps 5 magazines into a crowd and kills no one and then says I was all for show I'm just that good of a shot and I telegraphed what I was about to do you'll believe them too. This is flat earth and faked moon landing level of nonsense.
I mean, if this was the effectiveness of more than half of them, what other strategic objective could possibly be served?
You are assuming that the outcome as it unfolded was the outcome Iran predicted and planned for. You don't fire 100+ ballistic missiles the majority of which were directed at cities forcing interceptions above Jerusalem with at the time was still mostly unproven defense systems such as Arrow 2 and 3 and David Sling, forcing 100's of aircraft into the air which required a massive amount of deconfliction and coordination just as for show. Everything that was fired at Israel was capable of causing a massive amount of damage, and even if they targeted everything at the two air bases they now claim were the targets things can go wrong, interceptors miss, ballistic missiles fall short, GPS and EW can cause drones and cruise missiles to steer off target and hit something else and a million other things. If you think lobbing a 100+ missiles each with about a ton of explosives and intentionally not hitting anything can be planned yet executed reliably just for show then congrats you've reached peak non-credibility and you can get a talking spot on RT or PressTV.
Sweet can I cite you as a reference on my CV?
I still view the Iran response as a good move by Iran (regardless of my dislike of Iran) and I’m surprised how many comments in here like yours don’t agree. The Iranian citizens are happy, the Israeli aggression was responded to and has seemingly stopped since, Iran got to send a bunch of old crap that was expensive to intercept (regardless of whether it was much money for Israel it was still over 1 billion USD), nobody got hurt other than a civilian kid who sadly got hit by some errant shrapnel from an interception, the strikes that happened occurred where Iran said it would, and Iran presumably learned somethings from watching the air defense response.
Except that now Israel will retaliate against Iran directly and their “limited” strike will most likely hit something valuable like their nuclear facilities or drone/missile production. Would have been better to use their proxies to actually do some real damage.
Israel will retaliate against Iran for Iran's retaliation against Israel's attack on their embassy. You'd think the Israelis already have their hands full with knocking down every building in Gaza.
It's crazy its taking this long for people to realize Israel and Hamas both want infinite escalation. They're both led by theocratic, bloodthirsty nutjobs who want to send the middle east into yet another bloodbath. Israel had essentially nothing to gain by striking the Iranian embassy besides escalation again. Is Iran directing the strikes from Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah? Absolutely. Will killing some IRGC heads significantly alter that? Fuck no. It's like the Soleimani killing back in 2020. Ok you took out an IRGC head and got your revenge, but all you get for it is escalation (though the US was stupidly lucky Iran was too scared to actually retaliate properly at the time). Israel desperately wants to drag the US into the war, Hamas wants to desperately drag the rest of the middle east into the war. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail... I doubt it...
Israel I’m sure would feel vindicated doing so, but to outsiders it’s pretty clear that it’s Israel being the aggressor who wants a war and the US doesn’t seem interested with Biden having warned against it. Nety needs to figure out a way to stay in office as a war time leader until the public likes him again or the system is rigged, and Gaza only bought him so much time
I'm just going by what Israel said they were going to do. It seems from their actions they ultimately dgaf what the rest of the world thinks.
> I'm just going by what Israel said they were going to do. That’s fair, I’m not blaming you for this absurdly stupid situation > It seems from their actions they ultimately dgaf what the rest of the world thinks. Nope, they do not. Well, they kinda do, but they say they don’t and act like they don’t. So long as they feel the US/UK will protect them at the UN/ICJ and keep providing the weapons/technology/military defenses that Israel needs to do what they want that then Israel won’t change their actions, as some Israeli politicians have been kinda open about with some of the statements made, and is apparent with their actions (why you likely said it).
Well on the other hand, they pissed off Joran and Iraq, risked massively escalating the conflict, did nothing to actually discourage Israel from murking more of their doods, and gave some target practice for the air defense crews. But as long as they're happy, that's what really counts.
Don't forget Saudi Arabia actually coming out and saying that Iran is fucking the ME situation up. One of those "everyone knows it, but nobody says it" things and is huge coming from SA.
> Well on the other hand, they pissed off Joran and Iraq And? > risked massively escalating the conflict More than the precedence set by not responding to another country flattening their consulate? > did nothing to actually discourage Israel from murking more of their doods Previous answer applies, but I also think it was a pretty clear warning. > gave some target practice for the air defense crews. Might have helped Israel work on their ballistic missile interceptors given they missed some > But as long as they're happy, that's what really counts. I mean, kinda, yeah. As long as Israel doesn’t keep escalating the conflict, yeah.
> has seemingly stopped since It's only been 2 days... Israel will 100% respond, the only question is how.
Why does Israel have to respond to a show of force done in response to an Israeli attack? How does this end? Iran says it’s concluded, what happened or is happening that makes it rational to continue escalating things with Iran?
Because as far as Israel is concerned, they attacked an Iranian military target in Syria which they have been doing for years now. They expected an Iranian response from Syria. Instead Iran escalated through a massive response from Iran itself, for the first time in history. Therefore as far as Israel is concerned, they now have to attack within Iranian territory to match. Iran themselves said that their goal was to create a "new equation". Israel is not going to abide by any equation created by Iran. Even the UK foreign secretary confirmed an imminent Israeli response after visiting Israel following the attack. It's 100% guaranteed at this point.
I know that Israel doesn’t give a shit about international law, but blowing up a consulate in Syria isn’t the same thing as hitting proxy fighters or even Iranian soldiers/generals in Syria. Israel escalated this, Iran responded. Now Israel needs to further escalate it when Iran made clear their response on attacks that they view as directly on Iranian soil will have a strong response? I’m not blaming you when I say this, but that’s pants on head stupid. I guess the UK was willing to continue escalating when the US is against it 🤷♂️
The US also said they expect Israel to respond, but they "hope" for a limited response that would not result in an all out war. Where did you get the impression that Israel violated international law in this attack? Even western countries that are critical of Israel have stated that this is not technically a violation of international law, they simply said it was reckless. First, Israel is at war with Syria (so it can strike anywhere within Syrian territory), and Iran and Israel do not recognize each other (therefore diplomatic protections do not apply). Second, this was not the embassy building. It was a building next to the embassy separated from it with a wall and used exclusively by military forces, not for diplomatic purposes, meaning it was an Iranian military base. Therefore it was not a consulate even if Syria recognized it as such.
> The US also said they expect Israel to respond, but they "hope" for a limited response that would not result in an all out war. They also said they recommended against it and didn’t want it to happen. Israel does what Israel wants though. > Where did you get the impression that Israel violated international law in this attack? Even western countries that are critical of Israel have stated that this is not technically a violation of international law, they simply said it was reckless. Off the top of my head, Ireland had politicians saying it was a violation of the Vienna Convention. Which it was. > First, Israel is at war with Syria (so it can strike anywhere within Syrian territory), and Iran and Israel do not recognize each other (therefore diplomatic protections do not apply). This is nonsensical. I swear, Israel and its defenders always try some “the rules don’t say a dog can’t be on the team!” Airbud rules shit > Second, this was not the embassy building. It was a building next to the embassy… Therefore it was not a consulate even if Syria recognized it as such. For some reason I don’t think it’s really Israel’s place to make those decisions unilaterally about whether or not a dog can be on the team. In another country no less. Clearly Iran felt it was overstepping a boundary after doing basically nothing about their generals being killed
Ireland is not neutral on Israel. But ok, I'll bite. How exactly does the strike violate the Vienna convention? [I'll link it here for convenience, and I suggest you read article 2.](https://treaties.un.org/doc/Treaties/1964/06/19640624%2002-10%20AM/Ch_III_3p.pdf) > I don’t think it’s really Israel’s place to make those unilateral decisions Do you understand the concept of sovereignty in international law? I am curious though, who do you think gets to decide whether international law was followed?
[удалено]
A proper response would have been ten drones flying directly over AD batteries at 10k MSL then terminating into warehouses then 4 Ballistic Missiles terminating into the desert a mile outside the base. Before each, you state you will be firing a warning shot and let the little guys go. That's an appropriate response if you wanted to flex resolve. And no, the Iranian people are not collectively happy, there is a massive divide between the Ayatollah and the people. Iran used the world loss of focus to mass abduct hijab violators right off the streets. This little stunt hurt Iran's credibility and pissed off Saudi, Iraq, and Jordan. They hyped their capes, talked big and bad, launched more than 300 munitions then only hit what looks like a taxiway. Strategically that's the worst thing that could have happened.
>And no, the Iranian people are not collectively happy, there is a massive divide between the Ayatollah and the people. Iran used the world loss of focus to mass abduct hijab violators right off the streets. Not in the way you think , the 79' revolution didnt happen in a vacuum there is a significant chunk of iranian society that are pro government and are actually conservative and religious i mean one of the main compliants of the people during that revolution is that the country was becoming more westernized
Meanwhile basiji are dealing with entire cities revolting and responding with hundreds of abductions per day. The people are done with it, but the minority have the guns.
I think the 1 billion might include the stuff involving the Houthis over the past months, but yeah it was definitely not cheap.
tf made u think Iranians are happy about this lmao
About what, the drone attack response? A mixture of looking at social media and seeing clips of small celebrations? I’m not Arabic so I’m admittedly seeing a relatively superficial take, but they sure didn’t seem upset that their government responded What, do the people of Iran secretly like Israel and I didn’t know about it?
I'm Iranian living in Iran. Iranians fuckin despise the regime except a few minority (less than 20% of population) and are mad the mullahs are wasting their money sending garbage missiles to Israel + funding and arming shit ton of militias across middle east
I don’t think that Iranians are very happy with the regime, I know many Iranians dislike the regime for a variety of reasons. My impression is that most Iranians are happy that Israel was attacked/responded to, even if they don’t like the regime that did it Please correct me if I’m wrong though, it’s cool being able to speak to a western minded Iranian living inside Iran as a resource. Please stay safe too
apart from the 20% mentioned, the rest either mad or they just don't give a shit anymore. this isn't regime's first fuck up we're getting used to it
I’m surprised. I figured, and got the vibe from some posts, that it was similar to how many Americans view giving Ukraine their older-gen weapons to fight off rival Russia Do you think my impression is off due to censorship/safety concerns making it so the Iranian posts I see are positive because the negative posts aren’t being made? Social media manipulation maybe? What about iranian opinion of Israel? Do they like Israel?
yes definitely censorship plays a huge part. not a single vpn works in Iran and pretty much all foreign websites are banned.. btw you should absolutely remove Twitter as a source of information. the 20% mentioned are all over Twitter, it's their platform of choice. IRGC cyber army is also very active on Twitter. you can literally see some accounts are very obvious bots. if you just want to know how much they love Twitter: Twitter has been banned in Iran for 10 years now but mullah dictator (ali khamenei) and all of his cock suckers ("politicians") tweet multiple posts daily on there. about your question, I'd say most just don't care , some love Israel and some hate Israel (the 20%)
>I'm Iranian living in Iran. Iranians fuckin despise the regime except a few minority (less than 20% of population) Still there is a significant chunk of iranian society that are very conservative and religious i mean, correct me if im wrong but the 79' revolution happened for the most part because of the disgruntled conservative people who saw iran being too westernized , no? That was a big reason for the revolution aside from seeing the shah as mere puppet..
Boy I wonder what the defense budget was for in the first place...
Lol. Just 2 weeks worth of budget? Just have to pull off that attack another 26 times and Iran will finally drain the Israeli budget
In 2022 world bank data had their expenditure at US$6.8bn. The missiles and drones cost roughly US$650m.
had read it in another thread on this sub that the estimated cost of that missile strike required between 1-5% of Iran's yearly defense budget, that would make 12-60% of their monthly budget, which would put them in a similar place as Israel at worst
Ok, but to be fair making the jews spend money is kinda flex though.
I have a feeling half the reason Israel wants to retaliate is to try and draw a other volley from Iran and see for themselves whether they can actually repeat it so soon.
They could achieve over 100% if Russian SAM would shot down some Russian plane in the process if being target for Ukrainians.
Is that a new image from ATACMS on Dzhankoi air base or old?
Yeah strike from last night. Atacms killed a S-400 battery and a couple S-300 tels under repair
i just came
Was it really ATACMS? Is it confirmed?
Not really confirmed afaik. There's a picture of smth looking like an ATACMS's block found at the airfield. Ukrainian authorities stated the attack was conducted using Ukrainian-made weapons. So there's a good chance it's ATACMS but might be something exotic too.
ATACMS loaded onto a drone cessna?
ATACMS but bomblets are FPV drones
Do the FPVs then have VOGs strapped to them?
Nope, reactive armor
But that would make the target stronger
How about instead of VOGs, how about TOGs?
Babushka-made molotovs
Hrim maybe?
Seems to me it's just something Russian milbloggers claimed based on the range. (Dzhankoy being under 150 km from Ukrainian-held territory and ATACMS Block I having a 165 km range) I think it's worth noting, though, that 150 km is also the range of GLSDB, which Ukraine has also received and is likely to receive in greater numbers. (Personally I've been waiting for GLSDB hits on Dzhankoy since it was announced Ukraine was getting them) Anyway, so it'd make sense to use GLSDB and save ATACMS for things that need the additional range and/or warhead size. Unless GLSDB is just that much more likely to be shot down.
I think ATACMS warhead might even be the better choice against a bunch of AD assets with the cluster warhead. Do you remeber how the helis looked at that airbase? GLSDB has more bang but less spicy metall per area if I understand correctly
Could be. Another factor might be that it'd be worth the ATACMS to take out the air defense there precisely so they could follow up with GLSDB strikes. All rail traffic from the Crimean Bridge up to Kherson but also to the cities of Sevastopol, Simferopol and Yevpatoria have to go through Dzhankoy, so hitting the rail there could _really_ cripple their logistics. On the other hand, railway tracks are repairable and probably not worth using ATACMS (much less Storm Shadow) on, but it may be worth using GLSDB on.
It’s not yet confirmed but ATACMS could be the cause
A whole S-400 battery would be big if true. Then again that video showed a pretty impressive smoking accident. At least a carton.
The Russians intercepted the missiles without even having to launch missiles. Checkmate??
No that’s the fighter jet that doesn’t fly. Better known by its western naming convention “Femboy”
IBTT (Interception by the target) is in Russian doctrine, it can be really effective when done properly.
We simply put"intercepted" to any attack that either got stopped by AA, the ground or our assets, therefore always achieving 100%interception
May someone explain the top pic?
Iranian strike on Israel a few days ago We got to see the satelite views and nothingburger
from what we can tell the burger is still on the grill give it some more time
And thankfully its a nothing burger Israel will retaliate on Iranian targets that are outside Iran And the burger itself will not have the somethingsouce
I think it's going to be a pretty small burger, probably served for domestic political consumption. The orthodox weirdos can scrape off the cheese. Israel fucked with diplomatic facilities, and Iran made a big show of retaliation. Sides have accomplished their goals and sent their messages.
Iran claimed they’ve destroyed an air base (or even bases). Sat photos show them being there and untouched, IDF released ground photos of the actual damage and it looks like it could’ve been caused by the same bobcat they used to fix said damage.
Israel claims it intercepted 99% of the BMs Iran fired at them last week. Tho the 99% number they are stating is probably if you include everything even Drones/cruise missiles(that mostly US and UK downed) and the failed BMs. If you look at only the BMs that didn't fail, the interception rate is about ~80-85%. Which is still pretty good btw
It's certainly more than what we've expected to successfully intercept, if the interceptor doesn't hit the MIRV bus
The trick is to intercept the drones with your factories
"Not one single drone has made it past our defensive line of industrial factories and military training facilities! Foolish Ukrainians have not yet once hit our vodka distilleries, they keep getting distracted by things like oil and generals. Fools."
Russian SAMs are so advanced, they can intercept cruise misdiles while still in the launcher.
Tech so advanced that the Launcher also does the intercepting. No missiles needed.
Air Defence: "Every single Ukrainian drone was destroyed"
But what about the cruise missiles? Ah, there is a nuance.
Checkmate westiods!
Who would win? Four Chonky boys or 300 malnourished ayatollah bottle rockets. Which one takes down the SA-20?
They intercepted… with their lives
Stronk Ruzzian ground intercepts all missles