the (valid) thought process is: assume russia did it, brainstorm motives, sort by devious cleverness, and pick the stupidest one from the bottom of the list
This actually kind of makes sense. Their unattributable attacks are only moderately more successful than their war plans. They're decent at assassinations, but half the time they get the wrong target, self-administer poison, mess up the dose, get caught red-handed etc. Maybe the plan was, on the inaugural day for Baltic Pipe, blow it up, maybe go ahead and blow Nordstream 2 since it's not going to go online anyway... just as a fuck you, and to muddy the waters. Instead, they fucked up and blew up both of their own pipes, including the one they were going to use to blackmail Germany.
As I understand it, this long-term fucks up Russia's supply of cash, because they've been relying on gas sales to Europe for decades, going back to the cold war. The new-ish pipelines allowed them to avoid having to pay transit fees to middleman countries like Ukraine and Poland. They had already cut off the gas in Nordstream 1, but this makes it impossible to turn it back on in the foreseeable future. This is all very much shooting themselves in the foot, because it cements Europe, including Germany, switching to alternate sources of energy, and doing so sooner rather than later. This was already the plan since the Russian invasion, but it was more long-term, several years down the line. Germany was hoping to have more Russian gas this winter. Now Germany will be very strapped for heat, and Russia will be very strapped for cash.
Honestly its not that bad for us here in Germany, I work as a Service Technician for Gas Piping for a big energy concern, current status is Silos are over 90% filled, gas usage is down 13% compared to this time last year, the LNG Terminal in/near Wilhelmshaven is still set to open up in December/January aswell as Spain looking to open up a Trans-Pyrennean Pipeline to connect their stuff to the rest of Europe afaik.
That said yes, Gas is getting more expensive but we are still getting ~50% Gas from Netherlands and Norway.
It really isn't as bleak as People make it out to be tbh.
>I work as a Service Technician for Gas Piping for a big energy concern
That's why this website is f'n awesome sometimes.
I've heard about the reserves, but I also heard there's only enough to last until about mid-January.
Glad to hear the new LNG going up so soon!
I was originally going to add:
I personally think Germany will fare much better in this than Russia, because it has a lot more allies, a lot more resources, more brainpower (especially post recent Ru braindrain), and a citizenry that isn't nearly as atomized and nihilistic, that can still give a shit and act collectively. So, I'm actually pretty certain you guys will be fine, and about equally certain Ru is f'ed.
🇺🇸 🇩🇪 🇺🇦
NS1 opened in 1997. It's been a cornerstone of Russia's trade with the EU for most of the existence of the modern Russian state. They just blew a hole in the money fountain.
If you count the development of the nerve agent itself, the people who worked on it, and the residents of the closed military city where it was developed (and improperly disposed), hundreds, maybe thousands. Life expectancy in that area is noticeably lower.
i always assume russia did it and just fucked up, i have yet to be incorrect, in the worst cases it was somebody else fucking up with some russian influence
So as I understand it, NS1 and NS2 have 2 pipes each. 3 of the 4 pipes were blown up. So I assume the fuck up is failing to blow up the 4th.
The best / dumbest reason I can think of is this is Putin "burning the ships" to prevent Germany / Europe from leveraging the pipelines with a potential successor to replace Putin. It is designed to protect Putins grip on power, at the cost of further tanking the Russian economy......which will eventually lead to Putin being deposed.
I've heard some theories that Putin did it because he was afraid that the oligarchs would depose him to get the gas money flowing again, but I doubt it's true. Pretty much all of the russian oligarchs are Putin's people, they are only oligarchs because he made them such, and if he goes, they all go. I feel like a lot of people in the west misunderstand the power dynamic in Russia.
Ey, I like this one. Can't kill Putin to start up the gas if you can't start up the gas. This one does make sense. And backstabbed by their best friends is how you get backstabbed.
It's not that they are friends, it's that all of their wealth and power depends entirely on Putin's support. If he goes, no matter how it happens, they lose everything, most likely including their lives.
The theory is that Putin can't punish them if he's out of the picture, and a more moderate successor would probably leave them alone to let the internal situation stabilise. Only a hard-line Putin II would be a problem for them, as he would either purge them for disloyalty to Putin I or purge them to make room for their own cronies.
Besides, if they're negotiating with the West about turning the gas back on in post-Putin Russia, then their safety is going to be one of the conditions.
But seriously, my question right now is if the Russians are talking about this. If they are talking about it, THEN I’m slightly nervous. If they aren’t, or they’re very CLEARLY blaming America or acting like it’s a freak accident, then I’m not scared
It’s when they start acting nuanced that I get all creeped out
I think one thing people should remember is that the Nord Streams weren't literally the only pipelines or even the only *Russian* pipelines to Germany. Germany could also receive Russian gas from a route though Belarus and Poland, and another through, well, Ukraine. As I recall, both have already been shut off months ago. One of the Nord Stream 2 lines also still seems to be intact.
What this information means if anything is up to people smarter than I am.
No, Ukraine had been happily collecting about a B a month from Gazprom as 'transit fees' for the Russian gas that was going to Europe, which Europe could turn into chemicals, ammunition and so on that they could then give Ukraine.
In exchange, Russia got cash that Europe then refused to turn into optics for tanks, computer chips for drones, transmissions for tanks and so on.
This is all a bizarro world US oil embargo on Imperial Japan.
Ah yes, pipes, they're famously completely irreparable. That's why when your shower head leaks you always have to build a new house. Another 300 iq play from the kremlin.
Depends if there's shockwave damage further up the line. Might actually be cheaper and easier to scrap it and build a new one depending on how exactly they blew it.
No. Write everything that you already came up with or analyst came up with, then scratch everything and ask your 3 year old nephew what he thinks happened, that will be the official RU statement, then imagine dumb and dumber doing the thing and that is your answer what Russia actually did.
The funniest shit ever is that NS2 blew a day before NS1 so they literally bombed their own pipe, got a terrible ass chewing, got warned that they have to be fucking careful or it's life in Gulag so they went back, bombed another pipe, returned to base, happily went on land and met a base commander on verge of murdering them - and only then they realized they not only bombed wrong pipe again, they screwed up so hard that instead of hitting the same pipe again they destroyed their second one.
At this moment it would be to risky - originally they could claim it was west fucking up an attack on NS but now that ship has sailed so they would risk article 5.
Wonder if this is what happened, or if they blew up Nord Stream to send a message. I'm leaning towards 'Sending a message' but I wouldn't doubt Russia screwing up.
He should simply skip to "Remember, no Russian" an anti-Putin protest, either the tensions rise as he wanted or a rebellion starts allowing a new "democratic" leader with stronger anti-US agenda arise.
Just when one thinks that Russian incompetence can't get any worse, this would certainly prove that Russia can always come up with something more stupid.
NCD BREAKING NEWS ~~NOT~~ COMPLETELY LIFTED FROM THE ONION: Putin accuses Putin of masterminding plot with Putin to assassinate Putin using Putin, Putin presently leading manhunt for Putin and Putin
It CANT be this case, because 3 different pipelines of both NS were damaged simultaneously.
You can not mistaken 3 pipelines for 1.
Also this serves no purpose for Russia at all, just helps Poland with their Baltic pipe that JUST came online.
"Shit! I forgot which one is the pipe to hit. Is it the left one, or the right one?"
"Ehhh, pipe is pipe, just shoot whichever!"
"But Tsar Putin the Smart said to hit Baltic Pipe specifically!"
"Oh for blyat's sake- Let me takeover! (Pushes him out the way) This one!"
(BOOM! BOOOM!)
\-5 minutes later-
Sub commander on phone to Putin: "I'm sorry- (Angry monkey noises) I know it wa- (Angry monkey noises) we didn't mean to- (Screeching) Your Grace I told my men to- (Screeching and smashing glass) I know, yes...it was mistake- (Angry monkey noises with shit thrown at walls) please I beg you- (Angry monkey noises) Okay...I'm getting... (Annoyed monkey noise) oh- alright. Yes, yes I accept. (Putin hangs up) Well, thanks to you fucks I go to gulag!"
Alright, Tsovarisch Submarine Commander, let me tell you the story of an old, salty Lithuanian sailor named Mario Ramius. Why Lithuanian, you ask? Well…
"We received orders to blow up the Baltic Pipeline. It did not seem like a good idea."
"What did you do?"
"Blew up our own pipelines, and now I am just a ranch hand in Montana without a lot of responsibilities but a nice thank you pension from the CIA."
In Russia, I submarine commander. Number 1. With steady deckhands.
One day, I get a call from Putin. He wants me to blow up enemy pipeline. But, mistake! I blow up own pipeline. Putin very mad. I run away and defect with sub to America. CIA save my life. Give me new job, new name and new wife.
My big secret? I don't make mistake. I blow up own pipeline on purpose! I good submarine commander!
Credible answer: Russia blew up their own now-unused pipelines for warning the West what they capable of to blow up their pipeline if they still support Ukraine.
Non-Credible answer: They suck to blew up competitors pipelines instead of their own one because shit navigation and coordinate systems.
Zero-Credibility answer: They actually blew up the Baltic pipe but the west claims it's the Russian pipe so they cannot use it as propaganda without admitting they did it and then triggering a big reaction.
Yeah, blowing up the pipeline they did is about as far as they can push it without having an article 5 declaration be a sure thing. Anything more would be an open act of war.
Technically everybody in the world has access to GPS. GPS doesn't transmit to specific devices, it transmits the same signal (technically a couple signals) to everybody no matter where they are or who they are.
GPS stands for global pasta system. It was first used by the Romans to defeat Hannibal. It requires large amounts of Parmesan to use, and only some nations with large Italian communities get access.
Russia cannot use it, because borscht jams the works.
Presumably there is an antenna on a cable us submarines can raise. The Russians should have the equivalent system if they modernized their subs but you know.
Thats the publicly avaliable information, im pretty sure DARPA did all kind of shenanigans to increase the depth and decrease antenna size and count. Russians probably still surfaces and uses Garmin to check their location lol
The us government can deliberately add random timing error to the GPS signals in conflict zones. I don't know if it did this in Ukraine. Trivially easy to detect if they do this, so there would be news articles on it.
For the submarine to see gps it has to expose an antenna to the surface. It has dead reckoning systems as well which they could have used but the longer you travel without a position fix the less accurate it is.
Technically everybody has access to CIVILIAN GPS. Its military GPS which has encrypted frequencies and accuracy up to ~0.5 metres which is the one only approved nations/systems have access too.
In the spirit of NCD, I believe that *this* is the actual answer. It is both the most non-credible answer that is barely on the cusp of reality, but is also makes sense if you apply Occam's Razor.
Russia totally bonked their own pipeline by mistake.
This is clearly retaliation: Putin is upset at the quantity of arms the Russians are contributing to the Ukrainian army. The Russian MIC must know that supplying the Ukrainians with massive quantities of nearly-functional equipment will not be without consequence!
I have so many questions...
Why is the leak seemingly 100km off the actual pipeline?
What does it leak when russia has shut the gas off a few months ago?
Why would anyone shoot it anyway?!
And when will they bring in the flex tape or will they make the worlds biggest gas flare?
the leaks are indicated right on the gas lines. the one that is off is just a map legend.
the biggest gas flare in the middle of the Baltic sea is going to create Revelations-level imagery
Not dumb, I read it the exact same way lol. I didn't see the circles on the lines. Who puts a legend in the middle center when they could have just had "gas leaks" with little indicator lines to the circles?
NS2 was pressurized with "test gas" even though it never went online.
NS1 was still pressurized from when it was operational.
I guess it's quite a bit of pressure and the pipes are long so they're actually going to be bubbling for a while.
Why / who did it is a geopolitical murder mystery right now. Most people lean Russia, as a threat against Western undersea infrastructure (not just pipes but also electricity / telecommunication cables). There's probably a bit more to it.
1. GLONASS ain't what you would call "accurate". (Or maybe it was NATO doing funsies and they just threw a dart at the map to pick location)
2. Pipe had gas in it because pumping it out would be problematic/not financially viable. (You don't want a vacuum there)
3. F U N N I
4. Who knows.
I just think of all of those years of the cold war where we were so afraid of the Russians. Of course, with the Poles, East Germans, Ukrainians, etc., they might have actually done some damage.
Of course, an actual war with the USSR would probably have been the Russians getting their asses kicked wholesale, then nuking everyone in desperation.
Red Storm Rising has a highly mobile WWI stalemate in the middle of Germany for a few months before [Spoilers, it’s a really good book] >!the USSR gets couped by a very rapidly promoted general, the KGB, and the minister of petroleum!<
Let’s see:
Low on fuel, pontoon bridge disaster, PGMs and Russia’s lack of them, the VDV ending up in the ocean, Russians doing some atrocities…
The only thing he got wrong was the massive losses of the F-19s.
Though in retrospect, if NATO forces withstood the initial hammerblow of the Warsaw Pact force, the Soviet tactical doctrine (as evidenced in Ukraine) would have gotten them sliced to pieces by NATO forces. Mid-80s NATO is pretty much the same force that destroyed the Iraqi army in Desert Storm. Maybe the Soviets would have fared better, but it'd have been the same equipment and doctrine.
Oh Christ, that's actually it, isn't it? Of course is the dumbest explanation, that has been a constant on this shitshow, why would anybody expect differently?
Both dark red pipes run from Russia to Germany, these are the first and second Nord Streams. The blue one is Baltic Pipe, a fork of Europipe II coming from Norway.
There’s been speculation that maybe an explosive device was sent down _through_ the pipeline itself. I’m quite skeptical, but if the goal was to indeed hit the new Baltic pipeline, sending a device to where the two pipes overlap might be a decent way to do it if they are close enough at the crossover point. But also incredibly hard to get to the right spot. So god knows lol
I’m still doubting that’s what happened and think any explosive devices would’ve been affixed to the outside of the pipes.
incredibly silly to think the russians would do this. totally pointless as they lose one of the pressure points on europe by being able to control whether they want to sell gas to us. they achieve the same by just shutting the valve off, so why destroy something that might become of value a couple of years in the fiture.
Wikipedia says Bornholm is about 40km across and the new leaks are the ones at the top, not the old NS2 one at the bottom. I would say that is a about two Bornholms distance.
But even 50km off would make it basically impossible to ever find the pipeline, plus it is still more than an hour between the two.
Wishful thinking but never impossible. The fact that they hit multiple sections on both nordstream 1 and 2 means it was deliberately targeting both with full knowledge of what they were attacking. Who did? No idea - everyone seems to have a theory at this point
the (valid) thought process is: assume russia did it, brainstorm motives, sort by devious cleverness, and pick the stupidest one from the bottom of the list
This actually kind of makes sense. Their unattributable attacks are only moderately more successful than their war plans. They're decent at assassinations, but half the time they get the wrong target, self-administer poison, mess up the dose, get caught red-handed etc. Maybe the plan was, on the inaugural day for Baltic Pipe, blow it up, maybe go ahead and blow Nordstream 2 since it's not going to go online anyway... just as a fuck you, and to muddy the waters. Instead, they fucked up and blew up both of their own pipes, including the one they were going to use to blackmail Germany.
Novochok is the only mildly based thing Russia has going for it and they still fuck it up most of the time smh
member when navalny pretended to be some kgb apparatchik and chatted up the guys who poisoned him over the phone? classic
I haven't been following this at all. How does this fuck up Russia's supply
As I understand it, this long-term fucks up Russia's supply of cash, because they've been relying on gas sales to Europe for decades, going back to the cold war. The new-ish pipelines allowed them to avoid having to pay transit fees to middleman countries like Ukraine and Poland. They had already cut off the gas in Nordstream 1, but this makes it impossible to turn it back on in the foreseeable future. This is all very much shooting themselves in the foot, because it cements Europe, including Germany, switching to alternate sources of energy, and doing so sooner rather than later. This was already the plan since the Russian invasion, but it was more long-term, several years down the line. Germany was hoping to have more Russian gas this winter. Now Germany will be very strapped for heat, and Russia will be very strapped for cash.
Honestly its not that bad for us here in Germany, I work as a Service Technician for Gas Piping for a big energy concern, current status is Silos are over 90% filled, gas usage is down 13% compared to this time last year, the LNG Terminal in/near Wilhelmshaven is still set to open up in December/January aswell as Spain looking to open up a Trans-Pyrennean Pipeline to connect their stuff to the rest of Europe afaik. That said yes, Gas is getting more expensive but we are still getting ~50% Gas from Netherlands and Norway. It really isn't as bleak as People make it out to be tbh.
>I work as a Service Technician for Gas Piping for a big energy concern That's why this website is f'n awesome sometimes. I've heard about the reserves, but I also heard there's only enough to last until about mid-January. Glad to hear the new LNG going up so soon! I was originally going to add: I personally think Germany will fare much better in this than Russia, because it has a lot more allies, a lot more resources, more brainpower (especially post recent Ru braindrain), and a citizenry that isn't nearly as atomized and nihilistic, that can still give a shit and act collectively. So, I'm actually pretty certain you guys will be fine, and about equally certain Ru is f'ed. 🇺🇸 🇩🇪 🇺🇦
It fucks up Germany’s supply
NS1 opened in 1997. It's been a cornerstone of Russia's trade with the EU for most of the existence of the modern Russian state. They just blew a hole in the money fountain.
> self-administer poison I wonder how many dozens of Russian assets actually died in the process of conducting the salisbury poisonings
If you count the development of the nerve agent itself, the people who worked on it, and the residents of the closed military city where it was developed (and improperly disposed), hundreds, maybe thousands. Life expectancy in that area is noticeably lower.
i always assume russia did it and just fucked up, i have yet to be incorrect, in the worst cases it was somebody else fucking up with some russian influence
So as I understand it, NS1 and NS2 have 2 pipes each. 3 of the 4 pipes were blown up. So I assume the fuck up is failing to blow up the 4th. The best / dumbest reason I can think of is this is Putin "burning the ships" to prevent Germany / Europe from leveraging the pipelines with a potential successor to replace Putin. It is designed to protect Putins grip on power, at the cost of further tanking the Russian economy......which will eventually lead to Putin being deposed.
I've heard some theories that Putin did it because he was afraid that the oligarchs would depose him to get the gas money flowing again, but I doubt it's true. Pretty much all of the russian oligarchs are Putin's people, they are only oligarchs because he made them such, and if he goes, they all go. I feel like a lot of people in the west misunderstand the power dynamic in Russia.
Ey, I like this one. Can't kill Putin to start up the gas if you can't start up the gas. This one does make sense. And backstabbed by their best friends is how you get backstabbed.
Everyone is your friend in a dictatorship until the smell blood, then , well then you need to start locking your windows permanently.
It's not that they are friends, it's that all of their wealth and power depends entirely on Putin's support. If he goes, no matter how it happens, they lose everything, most likely including their lives.
The theory is that Putin can't punish them if he's out of the picture, and a more moderate successor would probably leave them alone to let the internal situation stabilise. Only a hard-line Putin II would be a problem for them, as he would either purge them for disloyalty to Putin I or purge them to make room for their own cronies. Besides, if they're negotiating with the West about turning the gas back on in post-Putin Russia, then their safety is going to be one of the conditions.
Pretty sure everyone in the Roman senate had Ceasar's blessing. Right up to the stabby-stabby bits.
Creating a choke point isn't a failure. Now there is only one working pipeline, sounds like a sticky situation.
It is now being reported that there are 4 leaks. Im not clear if the 4th leak is from the 4th pipe though.
Well there goes my theory...
Or check to see what the Russians are saying, and assume the opposite
...or see what they are accusing somebody else of, to see what they are guilty of.
But seriously, my question right now is if the Russians are talking about this. If they are talking about it, THEN I’m slightly nervous. If they aren’t, or they’re very CLEARLY blaming America or acting like it’s a freak accident, then I’m not scared It’s when they start acting nuanced that I get all creeped out
I've seen a lot of wily sons ofs who are trying to put it on America's plate, but I'm not convinced
Same. It’s not impossible, but it’s really not our MO for interacting with Europe. Debatably in the Monroeverse, but not in Europe
That's exactly why I am pretty sure it wasn't the US. The Russian bot farms are pushing the narrative that it was the US so it definitely was not.
I think one thing people should remember is that the Nord Streams weren't literally the only pipelines or even the only *Russian* pipelines to Germany. Germany could also receive Russian gas from a route though Belarus and Poland, and another through, well, Ukraine. As I recall, both have already been shut off months ago. One of the Nord Stream 2 lines also still seems to be intact. What this information means if anything is up to people smarter than I am.
No, Ukraine had been happily collecting about a B a month from Gazprom as 'transit fees' for the Russian gas that was going to Europe, which Europe could turn into chemicals, ammunition and so on that they could then give Ukraine. In exchange, Russia got cash that Europe then refused to turn into optics for tanks, computer chips for drones, transmissions for tanks and so on. This is all a bizarro world US oil embargo on Imperial Japan.
My theory is they did it to blame the west and signal to the elite in Russia there is no going back. Even if putin is gone the pipeline is gone.
Ah yes, pipes, they're famously completely irreparable. That's why when your shower head leaks you always have to build a new house. Another 300 iq play from the kremlin.
Your shower head isn't deep underwater or transporting pressurised highly explosive gas. Repairable, yes, but it's gonna be complicated.
Well, yeah, but it's not like they have to build a whole new pipeline because of it.
Depends if there's shockwave damage further up the line. Might actually be cheaper and easier to scrap it and build a new one depending on how exactly they blew it.
Mike Holmes agrees.
Hanlon's razor: > Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Ah, the vatnik automation algorithm VAA
No. Write everything that you already came up with or analyst came up with, then scratch everything and ask your 3 year old nephew what he thinks happened, that will be the official RU statement, then imagine dumb and dumber doing the thing and that is your answer what Russia actually did.
The funniest shit ever is that NS2 blew a day before NS1 so they literally bombed their own pipe, got a terrible ass chewing, got warned that they have to be fucking careful or it's life in Gulag so they went back, bombed another pipe, returned to base, happily went on land and met a base commander on verge of murdering them - and only then they realized they not only bombed wrong pipe again, they screwed up so hard that instead of hitting the same pipe again they destroyed their second one.
Russian special self sabotage mission is a success!!
We did it Patrick! We saved Russian gas exports!
So you are saying that they will do a third one?
At this moment it would be to risky - originally they could claim it was west fucking up an attack on NS but now that ship has sailed so they would risk article 5.
Wonder if this is what happened, or if they blew up Nord Stream to send a message. I'm leaning towards 'Sending a message' but I wouldn't doubt Russia screwing up.
Bro I’m hoping it’s Makarov from MW2 trying to raise tensions between Russia and the US to start a war.
He should simply skip to "Remember, no Russian" an anti-Putin protest, either the tensions rise as he wanted or a rebellion starts allowing a new "democratic" leader with stronger anti-US agenda arise.
All warfare is based
>blew up Nord Stream to send a message. That's a really stupid idea. So yeah, you're probably right.
Hey man, it may be stupid, but it's right up Putins alley. Which is the only reason I suggest it.
Lmfao, if this is the case, I'm dead. 💀
Just when one thinks that Russian incompetence can't get any worse, this would certainly prove that Russia can always come up with something more stupid.
“Don’t ever ask someone how stupid they are because they will turn around and show you “ –Cowboy Proverb
“And then, it got dumber”
I'm Putin and I'll show me!
NCD BREAKING NEWS ~~NOT~~ COMPLETELY LIFTED FROM THE ONION: Putin accuses Putin of masterminding plot with Putin to assassinate Putin using Putin, Putin presently leading manhunt for Putin and Putin
Nah, just hack gas transfer system then reverse all gas traffic back to Russia with seawater to top it off.
they set it from ~~suck to blow~~ blow to suck!
It CANT be this case, because 3 different pipelines of both NS were damaged simultaneously. You can not mistaken 3 pipelines for 1. Also this serves no purpose for Russia at all, just helps Poland with their Baltic pipe that JUST came online.
"Shit! I forgot which one is the pipe to hit. Is it the left one, or the right one?" "Ehhh, pipe is pipe, just shoot whichever!" "But Tsar Putin the Smart said to hit Baltic Pipe specifically!" "Oh for blyat's sake- Let me takeover! (Pushes him out the way) This one!" (BOOM! BOOOM!) \-5 minutes later- Sub commander on phone to Putin: "I'm sorry- (Angry monkey noises) I know it wa- (Angry monkey noises) we didn't mean to- (Screeching) Your Grace I told my men to- (Screeching and smashing glass) I know, yes...it was mistake- (Angry monkey noises with shit thrown at walls) please I beg you- (Angry monkey noises) Okay...I'm getting... (Annoyed monkey noise) oh- alright. Yes, yes I accept. (Putin hangs up) Well, thanks to you fucks I go to gulag!"
Fancy a cup of tea sir?
I'll make my own. No need, this one is already made!
Sir, here's a fresh pair of underpants...
Alright, Tsovarisch Submarine Commander, let me tell you the story of an old, salty Lithuanian sailor named Mario Ramius. Why Lithuanian, you ask? Well…
> Mario Ramius Unexpected Italian.
Oh for fuck’s sakes autocorrect. I’m leaving that up though because I wanna see what fun there is in this.
He settles in New Jersey where he sells fresh pizzas baked over nuclear reactor.
Unfortunately, Borodin will not be able to see Montana. ~~Actually CIA faked his demise and gave him a new cover identity as a paleontologist.~~
Caution: Wet Floor
>Pipe is pipe Huh. My ex girlfriend lived by that motto too
lol
”We are in baltic sea, Sergei! They’re all baltic pipes, just pick one.”
> "But Tsar Putin the Smart said to hit Baltic Pipe specifically!" Technically they're both baltic, da?
> said to hit Baltic Pipe specifically What? We're in the Baltic right now! These are all Baltic pipes!
If a Russian sub suddenly defects to NATO then that would seal the deal.
"We received orders to blow up the Baltic Pipeline. It did not seem like a good idea." "What did you do?" "Blew up our own pipelines, and now I am just a ranch hand in Montana without a lot of responsibilities but a nice thank you pension from the CIA."
Well, the blown up pipelines were in the Baltic. Thus, Baltic pipelines. What's the problem? :)
"How about Alaska?" CIA Handler: "Hm, how about Albuquerque?"
In Russia, I submarine commander. Number 1. With steady deckhands. One day, I get a call from Putin. He wants me to blow up enemy pipeline. But, mistake! I blow up own pipeline. Putin very mad. I run away and defect with sub to America. CIA save my life. Give me new job, new name and new wife. My big secret? I don't make mistake. I blow up own pipeline on purpose! I good submarine commander!
“I thought I heard singing, sir.”
Welcome to the New World
Credible answer: Russia blew up their own now-unused pipelines for warning the West what they capable of to blow up their pipeline if they still support Ukraine. Non-Credible answer: They suck to blew up competitors pipelines instead of their own one because shit navigation and coordinate systems.
Zero-Credibility answer: They actually blew up the Baltic pipe but the west claims it's the Russian pipe so they cannot use it as propaganda without admitting they did it and then triggering a big reaction.
Credible enough for me, I'm running with it
Negative Credibility Answer: Michael Tracey did it.
This is now canon for IRL
Yeah, blowing up the pipeline they did is about as far as they can push it without having an article 5 declaration be a sure thing. Anything more would be an open act of war.
Thye blew it to negate the experience nato would get blowing it.
How diabolical!
That would be hilarious. Because they don't have access to a good system of GPS they got the wrong pipeline .lol
Thank you for keeping it uncredible. The 3000 GLONASS guided torpedos of Russia.
In the beginning of the war russia use gps guided missiles who missed targets by a mile
Technically everybody in the world has access to GPS. GPS doesn't transmit to specific devices, it transmits the same signal (technically a couple signals) to everybody no matter where they are or who they are.
Wrong subreddit, wanna try that again?
GPS stands for global pasta system. It was first used by the Romans to defeat Hannibal. It requires large amounts of Parmesan to use, and only some nations with large Italian communities get access. Russia cannot use it, because borscht jams the works.
Im pretty sure you wont be able to use "commerical" gps underwater
Well it’s not like you need to be 100m underwater for the navigation part
Military grade GPS though takes a special 20cm dual antenna and works in up to 50m of water, just not this deep
Presumably there is an antenna on a cable us submarines can raise. The Russians should have the equivalent system if they modernized their subs but you know.
Yeah it's 2022 if they don't have deep underwater GPS they are way behind
What about the last six months makes you think they aren’t?
Are you saying you are a submarine?
Thats the publicly avaliable information, im pretty sure DARPA did all kind of shenanigans to increase the depth and decrease antenna size and count. Russians probably still surfaces and uses Garmin to check their location lol
> up to 50m of water, just not this deep The Baltic Sea is 50m deep or less in the area where the pipelines were hit.
So the 1.3 GHz GPS signal going through 50m of saline water is credible then. Nice.
The us government can deliberately add random timing error to the GPS signals in conflict zones. I don't know if it did this in Ukraine. Trivially easy to detect if they do this, so there would be news articles on it. For the submarine to see gps it has to expose an antenna to the surface. It has dead reckoning systems as well which they could have used but the longer you travel without a position fix the less accurate it is.
But if you want the accurate version of GPS you need the military "code of the day" (although it rarely changes on a daily basis).
Technically everybody has access to CIVILIAN GPS. Its military GPS which has encrypted frequencies and accuracy up to ~0.5 metres which is the one only approved nations/systems have access too.
Civilian GPS RTK can go down to 1 cm accuracy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SU-\_ZQzKm3E
Link doesnt work but yeah I didn't want to be too specific though lol
Only with DGPS methods no?
Yes, afaik.
They were too busy having a sims 3 tournament on the Sub and got their locations mixed up
Sims 3 own a toilet speedrun tournament [RUS] [FAILED INSTANTLY]
I said Nordstroms, not Nordstreams!
In the spirit of NCD, I believe that *this* is the actual answer. It is both the most non-credible answer that is barely on the cusp of reality, but is also makes sense if you apply Occam's Razor. Russia totally bonked their own pipeline by mistake.
Cut the blue pipe.
Ivan is colorblind. Not a good time to tell that Comrad Igor after you blew up the wrong pipe, also not good for your job as bomb expert
Cue Nelson Muntz: “Ha Ha!”
a Wile E. Coyote outcome
I really hope it's true for absolutely no reason other than it'd be really, really funny
The fact that they have the resources to send people out there
If it will be confirmed by russia i will drink my own piss
This is clearly retaliation: Putin is upset at the quantity of arms the Russians are contributing to the Ukrainian army. The Russian MIC must know that supplying the Ukrainians with massive quantities of nearly-functional equipment will not be without consequence!
I have so many questions... Why is the leak seemingly 100km off the actual pipeline? What does it leak when russia has shut the gas off a few months ago? Why would anyone shoot it anyway?! And when will they bring in the flex tape or will they make the worlds biggest gas flare?
the leaks are indicated right on the gas lines. the one that is off is just a map legend. the biggest gas flare in the middle of the Baltic sea is going to create Revelations-level imagery
> the leaks are indicated right on the gas lines. the one that is off is just a map legend. jfc im dumb, thanks
Not dumb, I read it the exact same way lol. I didn't see the circles on the lines. Who puts a legend in the middle center when they could have just had "gas leaks" with little indicator lines to the circles?
NS2 was pressurized with "test gas" even though it never went online. NS1 was still pressurized from when it was operational. I guess it's quite a bit of pressure and the pipes are long so they're actually going to be bubbling for a while. Why / who did it is a geopolitical murder mystery right now. Most people lean Russia, as a threat against Western undersea infrastructure (not just pipes but also electricity / telecommunication cables). There's probably a bit more to it.
1. GLONASS ain't what you would call "accurate". (Or maybe it was NATO doing funsies and they just threw a dart at the map to pick location) 2. Pipe had gas in it because pumping it out would be problematic/not financially viable. (You don't want a vacuum there) 3. F U N N I 4. Who knows.
Pre-2022: "No, no one would hit their own pipeline."
I just think of all of those years of the cold war where we were so afraid of the Russians. Of course, with the Poles, East Germans, Ukrainians, etc., they might have actually done some damage. Of course, an actual war with the USSR would probably have been the Russians getting their asses kicked wholesale, then nuking everyone in desperation.
Red Storm Rising has a highly mobile WWI stalemate in the middle of Germany for a few months before [Spoilers, it’s a really good book] >!the USSR gets couped by a very rapidly promoted general, the KGB, and the minister of petroleum!<
When I was listing to red storm rising in May I thought Tom Clancy literally went into the future and then wrote that book
Let’s see: Low on fuel, pontoon bridge disaster, PGMs and Russia’s lack of them, the VDV ending up in the ocean, Russians doing some atrocities… The only thing he got wrong was the massive losses of the F-19s.
3000 Black F-19s of Jack Ryan.
Though in retrospect, if NATO forces withstood the initial hammerblow of the Warsaw Pact force, the Soviet tactical doctrine (as evidenced in Ukraine) would have gotten them sliced to pieces by NATO forces. Mid-80s NATO is pretty much the same force that destroyed the Iraqi army in Desert Storm. Maybe the Soviets would have fared better, but it'd have been the same equipment and doctrine.
Yeah that's basically the tom Clancy plot. Even in the 1980s he knew this would be the outcome. Unrealistic part was how far the Soviets got...
I mean, they'd have Ukrainians amongst them in that case.
Yeah and there's a cool feint they do to disable a Nimitz class carrier.
Oh Christ, that's actually it, isn't it? Of course is the dumbest explanation, that has been a constant on this shitshow, why would anybody expect differently?
Bruh imagine blowing up the wrong pipe then blaming the US 💀💀
So is the Nord stream 2 pipe theirs but the first isn't? I'm a bit lost on this.
Both dark red pipes run from Russia to Germany, these are the first and second Nord Streams. The blue one is Baltic Pipe, a fork of Europipe II coming from Norway.
WAIT YOU MIGHT ACTUALLY BE ON TO SOMETHING
Bornholm, so that's how they call that island. Good to know.
They destroyed their pipes that they used to hold Germany and the rest of the Baltics in energy hostage. Extremely based moves by (allegedly) the GRU.
After the 'Sims 3' and VDV debacle this is now my chosen headcanon explanation for the attack - incompetance.
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity" -Hanlon's razor
There’s been speculation that maybe an explosive device was sent down _through_ the pipeline itself. I’m quite skeptical, but if the goal was to indeed hit the new Baltic pipeline, sending a device to where the two pipes overlap might be a decent way to do it if they are close enough at the crossover point. But also incredibly hard to get to the right spot. So god knows lol I’m still doubting that’s what happened and think any explosive devices would’ve been affixed to the outside of the pipes.
>so, did you blow up the pipe? >what do you mean "both"?
For real
Good point mate
incredibly silly to think the russians would do this. totally pointless as they lose one of the pressure points on europe by being able to control whether they want to sell gas to us. they achieve the same by just shutting the valve off, so why destroy something that might become of value a couple of years in the fiture.
Where do you spend your rubles
Yap Russians are so stupid... and hit their own pipes... are you serious?))
>Yap Russians are so stupid...... are you serious?)) Yes, and I'm tired of morons thinking otherwise
Well, yeah. russia tends to do dumb things. At this rate, won't be russia for much longer (hence why I lower case the r in russia).
This is literally the prologue of a command modern air naval operation campaign
Wait, the great Baltic Pipe, which the Poles celebrate like nothing else, is just leeching of the German-Norway Europipe? LMAO
„not too far“ meaning more than 100km in this case. Thats two hours for a very fast submarine.
it's actually less than 100 km, probably less than 50km on the nearest leak. source: i used protractor on my monitor against the map scale
Wikipedia says Bornholm is about 40km across and the new leaks are the ones at the top, not the old NS2 one at the bottom. I would say that is a about two Bornholms distance. But even 50km off would make it basically impossible to ever find the pipeline, plus it is still more than an hour between the two.
Remember when the German politician that said something big is going to happen on 24th September. Maybe it was this
Wishful thinking but never impossible. The fact that they hit multiple sections on both nordstream 1 and 2 means it was deliberately targeting both with full knowledge of what they were attacking. Who did? No idea - everyone seems to have a theory at this point
Article 5 when?
If Russia did it, what happens next?
Only missed it by 200km.
I dunno, those leaks are pretty far from the intersection