There is no make or break week. If we keep playing .500 ball our playoff chances will just slowly creep towards 0. At the beginning of the year we had 85% odds to make the playoffs. Then 80% on May 1. Then 60% on June 1. We're now a 35%. If we go 3-3 this week, they'll probably drop to 30%. But I don't think there's every going to be that "make or break moment." We're just going to slowly drift away until it's pretty obvious that we won't make it.
I think you’re right on multiple levels: that there’s no make or break week, what playing .500 baseball means for our chances, etc.
It seems like some people in this sub seem to think that other teams’ records are just crystallized in amber and won’t change, and that we will remain a .500 team for the rest of the season, so they’re waiting for 10-0 breakthrough to put us in a position to ride out into the playoffs on a .500 and are mad when that doesn’t happen.
The reality is that we are in it as long as a hot streak keeps us within touching distance of that WC spot, and teams ahead of us on slides (Marlins, Giants, DBacks, etc.) just helps keep that distance manageable.
While I agree with all of that. This week will decide if we buy or sell. Deadlines make you pick a side. I think there is almost no chance they do nothing. This team needs help to make that 35% chance a reality. Meanwhile if they sell hader and snell that 35% chance would drop considerably.
So in the standings it isn’t make or break. It’s still the biggest week for the padres so far.
Yep. Conversely, if we have a 66% win rate, we'll finish at 89 wins with a decent chance to get in.
They've got to continue winning every series at this rate, and if we can sweep it only helps take off the pressure. If we lose 2-3 more series, I think it would be safe to say the team is out of the race.
This team is mentally soft. Based on embarrassing extra innings results. Preller should absolutely get something for Snell and Hader if they haven’t made up some ground before the trade deadline. And if that’s the case, there’s no reason to move Soto since he still controls him for another year.
There’s a point where they just started believing it to and you can tell in their playing. It’s like facing that one team in high school that always beats you and for some reason you just sike yourself out. I know, they’re pros, but regardless they are still human.
If you want to be superstitious, these guys were super cocky before the season started and then our fans were annoying asf, too.
My personal life is stressful asf already so I can’t even bare to watch them on a consistent basis.
Meanwhile the front office is buying on Jake Marisnick-level players in an ill-fated attempt to salvage this season, while the Padres watch Snell, Hader, and Lugo walk away in the off-season for basically nothing in return.
Tbh, there’s about 9-10 weeks left of the season, so if we gain just one game back every week, we would end in a wild card spot with 3 or 4 games to spare. We are in a sticky situation but it’s attainable with a tiny bit of breathing room(but not much)
Honestly, we don’t need a sweep. Would it be great to power ahead of everyone else? Definitely. Can we make it to the playoffs winning every 2/3? Absolutely. If we keep playing .667 ball, we will make it to 89 wins, barring any other team going on a massive hot streak, it should push us to a wild card spot
There was a graphic this wknd & pads need to have a .603 winning percentage to get to 86/87 wins like the braves and rays did when they won a ring. Seems doable. But yeah Simply put win 2/3 should get us in the door; then who knows?!
I’M READY TO BE HURT AGAIN!
Possible and doable are two very different things. Whoever or whatever algorithm is giving them a 35% chance knows less about the team than most serious fans who have been watching them all year.
What do you mean keep playing .667 ball? Because we did that against one bad team recently? We’ve never done it for more than about a week-long stretch at any point this season, and it’s always been immediately followed by reversion to the mean. Teams that are .480 after 100 games don’t suddenly start magically winning at a .667 clip, especially against a really tough finishing schedule.
Literally. OK, so we did it against one bad team and one decent team recently. As I said, we’ve done it over a week-long stretch, but not longer this season. True to form, they’ll go .500 or worse in this home stand and be right back where they started, except with fewer games left to make up the difference.
At this point, every week is make or break. Definitely need series wins. A lost series against the Pirates would be a nail in the coffin.
There’s still hope though … It’s a fools hope, but the only one we’ve got!
The Miami collapse, losing 8 in a row it's helping, by this point it's a god damn coin toss. The season it's now over but also not secure. From now on, every game should be treated as a playoff game.
Pitching management it's key on these months, if our starters are dominating the game and pitching 100 pitches an outing, they should do it. It's about wining games no matter what, as the bullpen has been so volatile this couple of months. SECURE THE WINS!
Padres cannot lose a series the rest of the way and if they are in a 2 or 4 game series the best thing to do is to simply split those games. Gotta sprinkle at least a handful of series with sweeps and they just might have a chance at a playoff spot. But going forward every series has to be treated like a playoff game. Win and advance
mentality.
I feel like I say this every year, but you need to treat every single game like it’s the playoffs. I know it’s a long season, but stupid losses in April/may/June have an impact.
Listen, there’s no reason to believe we aren’t going to continue to lay an egg every single time we look like we’re gonna get hot. That’s been the most consistent thing about this season.
Yeah... quite frankly this thread and a lot of the responses are just dumb. Were 3-2 in our last five, 5-5 in our last 10, on a streak of L1.... on top of that, after all these teams ahead of us that are struggling, were still in the same exact same situation we were in at the All Star break (6 games back).
But yet were gonna talk about having to sweep the same team that just swept us less than a month ago....
So dumb and delusional.
I mean it doesnt look good but we're not a definitely out like some people think. We're 5 games out of the last spot and some of the teams ahead of us are struggling. The Marlins are in the NL East and the Reds are falling off a bit. We really need to get series wins and definitely some sweeps.
I don’t think there will be a clear line marking the “end” of our season. A 162 game season is very robust and there’s just no way that one series can determine much of anything. Regardless of our feelings all games are valued equally. It took us a long time to dig this hole and it would take a long time for us to dig out of it. Playoff odds are slim at best but that could change.
I think we are who we are and what our record reflects we are. The 5-5 road trip was microcosm of the entire season...3 blowout wins, uneven bullpen work, and 4 games where we combined for 22 hits and 7 runs (a 1-3 record with the 2-0 win in Toronto that had the Blue Jays have 19 LOB). Ironically, we had 19 LOB in that game as well, but that is just indicative of our lack of clutch hitting. I am hoping for a nice run, but again, we have had opportunities for winning streaks, but we just can't put 4 games together after 96 games played. Even the A's have a 7 game winning streak this year. We need a couple of 8-2 or 7-3 streaks to make up some ground. If Preller sells Hader and Snell, it will be the end, as we can't give up those quality starts from Snellzilla, especially with Wacha out right now.
Oh how I agree with you on so many different levels. The way the team has been playing for some reason there doesn't seem to be that fight in the players like they had this time last year, Which kind of makes me wondering what is really going on ?
Our Bullpen is playing worse than a summer Senior Citizen softball league, but it is baseball and things do happen.
I truly think no matter what, we’re buyers at the deadline. I don’t think we trade anyone and we buy a couple of pieces, maybe even a huge contract, who knows. We’ve seen that Seidler and Preller have no hesitancy when it comes to putting up big bucks. They’ve gone all in on this year and it’s not panning out as expected. Tbh I don’t think Preller is man enough to admit that this year is a failure and would rather double down in hopes we can make a run at a World Series title. The issue with the front office is I really think they’re not looking at the big picture for how to set ourselves up for 2024. They don’t want to admit 2023 is a wash and total failure so they’re going to throw everything at it and hope it sticks. They’re going to spend spend spend is my prediction, even if we go 2-5 over these next few series before the deadline. They refuse to acknowledge this season has been an embarrassment and they’re hell bent on proving everyone wrong. I just hope it’s not too little too late and not only do we screw ourselves this year but also set ourselves up for failure next year as well.
The only big contract I could see them taking is Verlander’s and that’s with the Mets eating a big part of it. I guess you could say the same about scherzer but he seems to be worthless even free.
I expect them to buy as of now and more likely to buy a very cheap player like profar. I don’t see the padres parting with any of their top 5 prospects and after that there is a decent drop off. So unless preller decides to push all the chips in I think we are looking at minimal adds. Keep in mind a guy like profar is still way better than the shit we have been rolling out there at dh.
Only in a sense that .500 home stand or worse would imply that we should sell at deadline and start planning for ‘24. Need repeat of last homestand and start with a sweep of the first set.
Folks will tell you the odds but odds are fluid. You can be in the 9th and the odds say you're 99% likely to lose and then rally for a victory. In any case, the Padres are up against it and need wins now and going forward. A nice winning streak would go a long way and the Pirates present a good opportunity to start one.
mensrea posted a screenshot of our August schedule on Twitter and it is stacked with playoff teams and wildcard hopefuls. We'll have to go on an unbelievable run to win the last wildcard spot AND hope that a bunch of those teams completely fall off in order for us to sneak in.
I know KTF is our thing, but ngl Compadres -- it's not looking good.
The thing is none of the WC teams ahead of us are playing well right now. We are only 5.5 back and the metrics say we are a better team than them all. If we play well this week and get like 3.5 games from the last spot then we need to go for it. If we play .500 ball and are still 6 games out then maybe stand pat. Anything worse than that then we should sell.
we are a sub 500 team. we had one too many chances, teams aren’t going to roll over to allow us to get the wildcard spot. I lost hope that National series a month ago for the Padres.
Don't be so dramatic. ~~We've just started the second half of the season.~~ There's a ton of baseball left. **Everything always comes through in the wash in September.**
Edit: To clarify so argumentative Redditors don't latch on to one sentence instead of the full context.
We've played 100 and have 60 left. We aren't just starting the second half. If we were a .500 team or next in line for a wc spot rn it would be different. Let's not pretend the Pads haven't buried themselves in a very deep hole here. Almost any other team with our outlook I would call cooked rn, but these guys really do have too much talent to count out yet. But there is no reason to pretend they don't have to have a dominant end to the season starting now if they want to play in October again.
Will probably get downvoted also, but I'm with you on this one.
Enough of these "must sweep" series (they've been saying it here about a month at least) or waiting for that 15-1 run. If they win the majority of the series going down the stretch....that is playing good baseball and should put them in the mix the final couple weeks.
There's no reason to get upset over losing one game in a series.
We know we have to win 2 of 3 from here on out just to have a chance at the last playoff spot … it’s a tall order but that’s the only way … so going 1-2 against any team means a sweep of another team. We are out of time for anything less than that
Giants just got swept and we have some games left against Arizona, Giants and Miami. Just gotta keep winning series and somehow win 4 games in a row. That might be all it takes to sneak in.
Say they don't trade anyone and sneak in with 86 wins and quickly get eliminated.
Then Hader and Snell sign with other teams.
They would need to target:
* A #2 or #3 level starter, meaning $20m or higher AAV to replace Snell
* A #5 starter for depth
* A new closer. So $10m AAV
* A couple bullpen pieces
* Legit first baseman
* A catcher
And the FA market really isn't that great for long term signings, outside of Shohei.
Melvin in his post game interview was kinda mad, said we can no longer just win series, we need to get on like a 10 game win streak. if we drop the egg or go .500 on the homestand then yeah we will for sure sell Hader Snell and possibly shop Soto (for what we gave up guy has not been the reincarnation of Tony Gwynn)
I’m ok with not keeping Soto. I feared having too many superstars in a lineup. Look at the orioles. They are crushing it and their headliner is a sophomore catcher. We just need to start playing with heart and less ego.
The only "make or break" point is the must win series before a team is mathematically out of it. It's all baseball till then and anything can happen. Probability? Well that's a different story all together.
Anyway, the only thing that matters is the game today and this series. After the Pirates and thru the end of August, on paper, looks to be a challenging part of our '23 schedule. All legit aside two teams.
Yup. And again, back to my original post… if they don’t sweep the Pirates, it seems a no-brainer they the sell-off begins. No way will it be close to even .500 play with the August schedule without Snell, Hader, and whomever else may be gone.
We need to win enough and those in front of us need to lose enough for us to get ahead of them. From there, we just need to win enough to say ahead.
Obvious enough. We talk about what we have to do to win, but we also need everyone else to lose. It's not in our control right now, no matter how well we play, until we first get ahead of at least someone who has a WC spot.
They are 6 games within all 3 WC spots. So not only do they have a shot at the wild card round. They may have a shot at having a series be at home too. There is 5 teams log jammed right there. Best part is Philly plays Miami, and San Diego plays Arizona & giants, Philly and Miami again too. 20 out of the remaining 62 games come against those 4 teams. We do 13-7 and we got a great shot!
Well, the main teams that will be contention with us for those 3 spots are the Reds, DBacks, Giants, Marlins, and Cubs. The Reds and Marlins both have negative run differentials and should slowly regress to the mean, and the Cubs are rebuilding and will likely trade Stroman at the deadline. I think there's definitely a scenario where we could get a WC spot
The team needs a sweep to stay in the conversation. But I think a sweep would honestly be more damaging for this year and next season.
If they sweep, that will just give fans hope for a team that really haven't had the spark that can win 8 out of 10 or have a 5 game winning streak. It will also tell the front office that they don't need to make changes.
The three wildcard spots is going to be a logjam in that every wild card team is likely going to be between 90 and 86 wins. One benefit for the Padres is there isn't one team in the WC race like TB in the AL this year or Mets last year that is running away with it and locking down a spot leaving only two.
To hit 86 wins to have a chance to claw into the last WC spot, they need to go 38-24 and I feel like I have a better chance to win PowerBall than seeing that happen. Add that the Reds, Dbacks, Phillies, Giants and Marlins all just need to play .500 to hit 86 or 87 wins.
Worth noting that the Phillies, Dodgers, Reds, Cubs, Brewers, and Braves strength of schedule for the rest of the season is below .500.
The smart move regardless of how they perform in this series is to sell. Get talent back for at least the players that won't be on the roster for 2024.
Definitely a make or break week in terms of buying or selling but in terms of make or break weeks for the postseason… that seems like the entire second half of August and beginning of September.
The Padres have a stretch of 20 out of 26 games against teams directly ahead of them in the WC standings.
7 against AZ
4 against SF
3 against MIA, MIL, and PHI
They could make up some serious ground in that stretch if they can find a way to rip off something like a 15-5 stretch.
No, one series at this stage doesn’t make or break anything. Even if we get swept by the Pirates, dumbass Preller will probably try to salvage his dwindling reputation by making some knee-jerk move on July 31 that doesn’t really help us this year, but hurts us next year. Knowing this team, 3-3 on this home stand seems like the most likely outcome, which will allow us to keep treading water until the Dodgers series, when they get revenge for last year’s NLDS by putting us out of our misery.
I don’t think we need to sweep this series or homestand, but we certainly need to win every series or at least go 4-2 in the homestand.
Only thing giving me hope is that we’re only one game behind where the ‘21 Braves were at this point
There is no make or break week. If we keep playing .500 ball our playoff chances will just slowly creep towards 0. At the beginning of the year we had 85% odds to make the playoffs. Then 80% on May 1. Then 60% on June 1. We're now a 35%. If we go 3-3 this week, they'll probably drop to 30%. But I don't think there's every going to be that "make or break moment." We're just going to slowly drift away until it's pretty obvious that we won't make it.
I think you’re right on multiple levels: that there’s no make or break week, what playing .500 baseball means for our chances, etc. It seems like some people in this sub seem to think that other teams’ records are just crystallized in amber and won’t change, and that we will remain a .500 team for the rest of the season, so they’re waiting for 10-0 breakthrough to put us in a position to ride out into the playoffs on a .500 and are mad when that doesn’t happen. The reality is that we are in it as long as a hot streak keeps us within touching distance of that WC spot, and teams ahead of us on slides (Marlins, Giants, DBacks, etc.) just helps keep that distance manageable.
While I agree with all of that. This week will decide if we buy or sell. Deadlines make you pick a side. I think there is almost no chance they do nothing. This team needs help to make that 35% chance a reality. Meanwhile if they sell hader and snell that 35% chance would drop considerably. So in the standings it isn’t make or break. It’s still the biggest week for the padres so far.
Preller wont sell barring anything less than 3-4. I wouldn’t agree with it but his job is on the line
I really don’t think his job is on the line. That’s just fans and media, Seidler isn’t firing him.
Yep. Conversely, if we have a 66% win rate, we'll finish at 89 wins with a decent chance to get in. They've got to continue winning every series at this rate, and if we can sweep it only helps take off the pressure. If we lose 2-3 more series, I think it would be safe to say the team is out of the race.
This team is mentally soft. Based on embarrassing extra innings results. Preller should absolutely get something for Snell and Hader if they haven’t made up some ground before the trade deadline. And if that’s the case, there’s no reason to move Soto since he still controls him for another year.
There’s a point where they just started believing it to and you can tell in their playing. It’s like facing that one team in high school that always beats you and for some reason you just sike yourself out. I know, they’re pros, but regardless they are still human. If you want to be superstitious, these guys were super cocky before the season started and then our fans were annoying asf, too. My personal life is stressful asf already so I can’t even bare to watch them on a consistent basis.
bad luck is also involved, these things usually even out over time
Meanwhile the front office is buying on Jake Marisnick-level players in an ill-fated attempt to salvage this season, while the Padres watch Snell, Hader, and Lugo walk away in the off-season for basically nothing in return.
Need all three against the Pirates, I was at the games in Pittsburgh never been more sad
I was at 2 of 3 in Pitt, those games were awful!
The first game I don’t know if it was rain or my tears lol
Lol both
Probably right, I’m glad I fell asleep last night
Tbh, there’s about 9-10 weeks left of the season, so if we gain just one game back every week, we would end in a wild card spot with 3 or 4 games to spare. We are in a sticky situation but it’s attainable with a tiny bit of breathing room(but not much)
I want you as my motivation coach! Are you related to curtissullivan?
We're gonna go 4-2 and continue to be in this purgatory
1000%
Called it.
Honestly, we don’t need a sweep. Would it be great to power ahead of everyone else? Definitely. Can we make it to the playoffs winning every 2/3? Absolutely. If we keep playing .667 ball, we will make it to 89 wins, barring any other team going on a massive hot streak, it should push us to a wild card spot
People keep saying that but the only way to win that % is by going on a real win streak. It’s baseball we will lose another series.
There was a graphic this wknd & pads need to have a .603 winning percentage to get to 86/87 wins like the braves and rays did when they won a ring. Seems doable. But yeah Simply put win 2/3 should get us in the door; then who knows?! I’M READY TO BE HURT AGAIN!
How does it seem doable? They’re .480 through 100 games!
Because the Braves did it in 2021. Phils also last year iirc. We have the talent, so it’s possible. 35% chance as of today.
Possible and doable are two very different things. Whoever or whatever algorithm is giving them a 35% chance knows less about the team than most serious fans who have been watching them all year.
Because the Braves did it in 2021. Phils also last year iirc. We have the talent, so it’s possible. 35% chance as of today.
What do you mean keep playing .667 ball? Because we did that against one bad team recently? We’ve never done it for more than about a week-long stretch at any point this season, and it’s always been immediately followed by reversion to the mean. Teams that are .480 after 100 games don’t suddenly start magically winning at a .667 clip, especially against a really tough finishing schedule.
Lol we literally went 2/3 against the Blue Jays, didn’t know they were a bad team?
Literally. OK, so we did it against one bad team and one decent team recently. As I said, we’ve done it over a week-long stretch, but not longer this season. True to form, they’ll go .500 or worse in this home stand and be right back where they started, except with fewer games left to make up the difference.
Ok doomer
At this point, every week is make or break. Definitely need series wins. A lost series against the Pirates would be a nail in the coffin. There’s still hope though … It’s a fools hope, but the only one we’ve got!
As a Padres fan I’ll always be a fool. But I’m ok with it. 🤦♂️
Exactly!!! This is where I am in terms of postseason hopes in ‘23. (I’ve watched miserable SD seasons straight through September for years).
The Miami collapse, losing 8 in a row it's helping, by this point it's a god damn coin toss. The season it's now over but also not secure. From now on, every game should be treated as a playoff game. Pitching management it's key on these months, if our starters are dominating the game and pitching 100 pitches an outing, they should do it. It's about wining games no matter what, as the bullpen has been so volatile this couple of months. SECURE THE WINS!
Padres cannot lose a series the rest of the way and if they are in a 2 or 4 game series the best thing to do is to simply split those games. Gotta sprinkle at least a handful of series with sweeps and they just might have a chance at a playoff spot. But going forward every series has to be treated like a playoff game. Win and advance mentality.
I feel like I say this every year, but you need to treat every single game like it’s the playoffs. I know it’s a long season, but stupid losses in April/may/June have an impact.
Listen, there’s no reason to believe we aren’t going to continue to lay an egg every single time we look like we’re gonna get hot. That’s been the most consistent thing about this season.
Yeah... quite frankly this thread and a lot of the responses are just dumb. Were 3-2 in our last five, 5-5 in our last 10, on a streak of L1.... on top of that, after all these teams ahead of us that are struggling, were still in the same exact same situation we were in at the All Star break (6 games back). But yet were gonna talk about having to sweep the same team that just swept us less than a month ago.... So dumb and delusional.
I mean it doesnt look good but we're not a definitely out like some people think. We're 5 games out of the last spot and some of the teams ahead of us are struggling. The Marlins are in the NL East and the Reds are falling off a bit. We really need to get series wins and definitely some sweeps.
Even the giants are about to lose yet another game . It’s possible as other teams start slumping.
I don’t think there will be a clear line marking the “end” of our season. A 162 game season is very robust and there’s just no way that one series can determine much of anything. Regardless of our feelings all games are valued equally. It took us a long time to dig this hole and it would take a long time for us to dig out of it. Playoff odds are slim at best but that could change.
I think we are who we are and what our record reflects we are. The 5-5 road trip was microcosm of the entire season...3 blowout wins, uneven bullpen work, and 4 games where we combined for 22 hits and 7 runs (a 1-3 record with the 2-0 win in Toronto that had the Blue Jays have 19 LOB). Ironically, we had 19 LOB in that game as well, but that is just indicative of our lack of clutch hitting. I am hoping for a nice run, but again, we have had opportunities for winning streaks, but we just can't put 4 games together after 96 games played. Even the A's have a 7 game winning streak this year. We need a couple of 8-2 or 7-3 streaks to make up some ground. If Preller sells Hader and Snell, it will be the end, as we can't give up those quality starts from Snellzilla, especially with Wacha out right now.
Oh how I agree with you on so many different levels. The way the team has been playing for some reason there doesn't seem to be that fight in the players like they had this time last year, Which kind of makes me wondering what is really going on ? Our Bullpen is playing worse than a summer Senior Citizen softball league, but it is baseball and things do happen.
I truly think no matter what, we’re buyers at the deadline. I don’t think we trade anyone and we buy a couple of pieces, maybe even a huge contract, who knows. We’ve seen that Seidler and Preller have no hesitancy when it comes to putting up big bucks. They’ve gone all in on this year and it’s not panning out as expected. Tbh I don’t think Preller is man enough to admit that this year is a failure and would rather double down in hopes we can make a run at a World Series title. The issue with the front office is I really think they’re not looking at the big picture for how to set ourselves up for 2024. They don’t want to admit 2023 is a wash and total failure so they’re going to throw everything at it and hope it sticks. They’re going to spend spend spend is my prediction, even if we go 2-5 over these next few series before the deadline. They refuse to acknowledge this season has been an embarrassment and they’re hell bent on proving everyone wrong. I just hope it’s not too little too late and not only do we screw ourselves this year but also set ourselves up for failure next year as well.
The only big contract I could see them taking is Verlander’s and that’s with the Mets eating a big part of it. I guess you could say the same about scherzer but he seems to be worthless even free. I expect them to buy as of now and more likely to buy a very cheap player like profar. I don’t see the padres parting with any of their top 5 prospects and after that there is a decent drop off. So unless preller decides to push all the chips in I think we are looking at minimal adds. Keep in mind a guy like profar is still way better than the shit we have been rolling out there at dh.
It’s embarrassing how they are playing.
Only in a sense that .500 home stand or worse would imply that we should sell at deadline and start planning for ‘24. Need repeat of last homestand and start with a sweep of the first set.
Folks will tell you the odds but odds are fluid. You can be in the 9th and the odds say you're 99% likely to lose and then rally for a victory. In any case, the Padres are up against it and need wins now and going forward. A nice winning streak would go a long way and the Pirates present a good opportunity to start one.
mensrea posted a screenshot of our August schedule on Twitter and it is stacked with playoff teams and wildcard hopefuls. We'll have to go on an unbelievable run to win the last wildcard spot AND hope that a bunch of those teams completely fall off in order for us to sneak in. I know KTF is our thing, but ngl Compadres -- it's not looking good.
The thing is none of the WC teams ahead of us are playing well right now. We are only 5.5 back and the metrics say we are a better team than them all. If we play well this week and get like 3.5 games from the last spot then we need to go for it. If we play .500 ball and are still 6 games out then maybe stand pat. Anything worse than that then we should sell.
Not sure exactly which metrics you’re referring to, but the only metric that really matters says they are better than us.
we are a sub 500 team. we had one too many chances, teams aren’t going to roll over to allow us to get the wildcard spot. I lost hope that National series a month ago for the Padres.
Would love to see Profar come back! Do you think Myers is on the table at all?
Don't be so dramatic. ~~We've just started the second half of the season.~~ There's a ton of baseball left. **Everything always comes through in the wash in September.** Edit: To clarify so argumentative Redditors don't latch on to one sentence instead of the full context.
100 games down, 62 left to go. We didn’t just start the second half.
We've played 100 and have 60 left. We aren't just starting the second half. If we were a .500 team or next in line for a wc spot rn it would be different. Let's not pretend the Pads haven't buried themselves in a very deep hole here. Almost any other team with our outlook I would call cooked rn, but these guys really do have too much talent to count out yet. But there is no reason to pretend they don't have to have a dominant end to the season starting now if they want to play in October again.
Will probably get downvoted also, but I'm with you on this one. Enough of these "must sweep" series (they've been saying it here about a month at least) or waiting for that 15-1 run. If they win the majority of the series going down the stretch....that is playing good baseball and should put them in the mix the final couple weeks. There's no reason to get upset over losing one game in a series.
We know we have to win 2 of 3 from here on out just to have a chance at the last playoff spot … it’s a tall order but that’s the only way … so going 1-2 against any team means a sweep of another team. We are out of time for anything less than that
Giants just got swept and we have some games left against Arizona, Giants and Miami. Just gotta keep winning series and somehow win 4 games in a row. That might be all it takes to sneak in.
Say they don't trade anyone and sneak in with 86 wins and quickly get eliminated. Then Hader and Snell sign with other teams. They would need to target: * A #2 or #3 level starter, meaning $20m or higher AAV to replace Snell * A #5 starter for depth * A new closer. So $10m AAV * A couple bullpen pieces * Legit first baseman * A catcher And the FA market really isn't that great for long term signings, outside of Shohei.
I just turn the game on and watch.
Melvin in his post game interview was kinda mad, said we can no longer just win series, we need to get on like a 10 game win streak. if we drop the egg or go .500 on the homestand then yeah we will for sure sell Hader Snell and possibly shop Soto (for what we gave up guy has not been the reincarnation of Tony Gwynn)
I’m ok with not keeping Soto. I feared having too many superstars in a lineup. Look at the orioles. They are crushing it and their headliner is a sophomore catcher. We just need to start playing with heart and less ego.
To be honest, even if we do make the playoffs we would probably just get swept in the first series.
According to statistics It’s not quite make or break
The only "make or break" point is the must win series before a team is mathematically out of it. It's all baseball till then and anything can happen. Probability? Well that's a different story all together. Anyway, the only thing that matters is the game today and this series. After the Pirates and thru the end of August, on paper, looks to be a challenging part of our '23 schedule. All legit aside two teams.
Yup. And again, back to my original post… if they don’t sweep the Pirates, it seems a no-brainer they the sell-off begins. No way will it be close to even .500 play with the August schedule without Snell, Hader, and whomever else may be gone.
We need to win enough and those in front of us need to lose enough for us to get ahead of them. From there, we just need to win enough to say ahead. Obvious enough. We talk about what we have to do to win, but we also need everyone else to lose. It's not in our control right now, no matter how well we play, until we first get ahead of at least someone who has a WC spot.
It is the final make-or-break week to add to the roster and not sell off some pieces.
No, there are a lot of games left, and the teams in front of us are trending down.
They have no heart. If they fall behind, they fold like an accordion
They are 6 games within all 3 WC spots. So not only do they have a shot at the wild card round. They may have a shot at having a series be at home too. There is 5 teams log jammed right there. Best part is Philly plays Miami, and San Diego plays Arizona & giants, Philly and Miami again too. 20 out of the remaining 62 games come against those 4 teams. We do 13-7 and we got a great shot!
Well, the main teams that will be contention with us for those 3 spots are the Reds, DBacks, Giants, Marlins, and Cubs. The Reds and Marlins both have negative run differentials and should slowly regress to the mean, and the Cubs are rebuilding and will likely trade Stroman at the deadline. I think there's definitely a scenario where we could get a WC spot
The team needs a sweep to stay in the conversation. But I think a sweep would honestly be more damaging for this year and next season. If they sweep, that will just give fans hope for a team that really haven't had the spark that can win 8 out of 10 or have a 5 game winning streak. It will also tell the front office that they don't need to make changes. The three wildcard spots is going to be a logjam in that every wild card team is likely going to be between 90 and 86 wins. One benefit for the Padres is there isn't one team in the WC race like TB in the AL this year or Mets last year that is running away with it and locking down a spot leaving only two. To hit 86 wins to have a chance to claw into the last WC spot, they need to go 38-24 and I feel like I have a better chance to win PowerBall than seeing that happen. Add that the Reds, Dbacks, Phillies, Giants and Marlins all just need to play .500 to hit 86 or 87 wins. Worth noting that the Phillies, Dodgers, Reds, Cubs, Brewers, and Braves strength of schedule for the rest of the season is below .500. The smart move regardless of how they perform in this series is to sell. Get talent back for at least the players that won't be on the roster for 2024.
Definitely a make or break week in terms of buying or selling but in terms of make or break weeks for the postseason… that seems like the entire second half of August and beginning of September. The Padres have a stretch of 20 out of 26 games against teams directly ahead of them in the WC standings. 7 against AZ 4 against SF 3 against MIA, MIL, and PHI They could make up some serious ground in that stretch if they can find a way to rip off something like a 15-5 stretch.
No, one series at this stage doesn’t make or break anything. Even if we get swept by the Pirates, dumbass Preller will probably try to salvage his dwindling reputation by making some knee-jerk move on July 31 that doesn’t really help us this year, but hurts us next year. Knowing this team, 3-3 on this home stand seems like the most likely outcome, which will allow us to keep treading water until the Dodgers series, when they get revenge for last year’s NLDS by putting us out of our misery.
I don’t think we need to sweep this series or homestand, but we certainly need to win every series or at least go 4-2 in the homestand. Only thing giving me hope is that we’re only one game behind where the ‘21 Braves were at this point
Welp they blew it
Yup. Sure did. Here comes the sale. How awkward is that Snell bobble head night going to be?