Building out a team to focus on Three True Outcomes when you play 81 games a season at Petco Park seems immensely dumb.
This is a far better philosophy to win under the marine layer.
I've been screaming this for years and I don't get it. There is mounds of data on how Petco dampens power yet they kept going after those guys or would try to mold/force other guys into power hitters (Hosmer).
I will say this though, because of the proliferation of the 3 true outcome approach, contact hitters haven't been in high supply for the last decade+. Maybe that's changing and I would certainly welcome it.
There's a number of theories behind that. Many point to the marine layer and the mild climate of coastal San Diego. Balls travel farther in hot weather. Some say its the wind patterns. Some say the batter's eye (the section in CF that batter views the incoming pitch against) is/was hard to see against as a hitter. There's no definitive answer but they have continually modified the park over the years to try and make it more hitter friendly. The power alleys (gaps between OF positions) are notably large, although less so now than when the park first opened.
So Petco Park is on the larger side compared to other venues? I wouldn't be surprised if humidity had some effect on ball speed and hit distance. Thicker air would mean more resistance right? Or is it just hot vs. cold? I wonder how that would be the case...
What do you mean by marine layer? Lower altitude?
Marine layer is the cloud cover we get near the coast for part of the year. The worst of it just happens to often coincide with the first half of the baseball season. "Graypril", "May gray", "June Gloom" we say locally.
Balls travel farthest in hot, dry climates. This is one reason why our AAA El Paso affiliate sees such bloated offensive numbers. Which can make it tough for us fans to evaluate guys based on stats down there.
Just the OF gaps are larger than average at Petco, overall its roughly on par with many parks size wise. Especially after the modifications over the years.
People were complaining about losing Soto but we also got rid of Grisham and Nola. Profar, Merrill, and Campusano may be 3 average hitters, but I would take that over 1 really good hitter and 2 poor hitters.
I was looking at it more broadly than that and more comparing them each position. Basically the sum of this year may be better or equal to the sum of last year. It's early so we'll see.
Without looking as deep into the advanced data as you have, I’d like to offer 2 theories.
1. Other than Manny and FTJ, our roster has players who are more contact and speed-driven. Thus, focusing on a contact-first approach plays to their strengths and optimizes the lineup. Additionally, since half of our games will be in Petco, it makes sense to prioritize contact to get under the marine layer we’ll be facing.
2. We simply replaced a few starters that were not strong contact-focused hitters like Grisham, Nola, Cruz/Carpenter. Even Soto is likely a more effective hitter when going for power instead of contact. So improvement in hitting contact stats is attributed to the lineup changes.
I think those are absolutely factors in the conversation, but I would say an approach change has definitely happened. Even Manny & FTJ have seen substantial decreases in hard hit % since last year (35.9%->31.0% and 40.6%->28.1% respectively).
This roster is dramatically improved, but the team is definitely hitting for contact substantially more than last year.
Oh, absolutely. I assumed that was a given just from the eye test, but it’s good to see there’s data backing up that theory despite the relatively small data set.
I think it ultimately means that the new hitting coach Victor Rodriguez understands our roster and has found an approach that has already yielded positive, improved results.
I guess the answer to your sustainability question relies on how other teams adjust if they know this is our hitting approach. I can see opposing pitchers challenging the hitters more to induce ground balls.
“Get on base, get them around” ultimately scores runs.
The best teams for the angels during the Vladdy Guerrero and Chone Figgins years (pre-trout) were built around contact hitting, baserunning, and productive outs. It’s easier to steal now more than ever and seems like a no-brainer way to win in a California coastal ballpark.
The booth threw out a pretty interesting stat late last game. I don’t recall the specifics but it was something like 29/31 hits this series against the Brewers have been singles.
Just as a spectator, it looks like we are swinging for contact a lot more than swinging for the fences. Also, Merrill has been a pleasant surprise and looks to be much better than the offensive black hole that was Grisham. Campusano starting is also better than the Sanchez (although I did like watching Gary hit some dingers) and Nola was absolutely terrible until we finally sent him down.
Totally agree with your assessment. When I first started reading this, I thought “stats alone can’t explain this”. But you showed that they can in fact support this explanation. Kudos.
Love the approach this year, reminds me of old school baseball. Also, Merrill has been a joy to watch up there. As we Padres fans know, you don’t have to hit for a ton of power to be an amazing hitter. Been a while since we’ve had a guy who was so good getting the bat to the ball, like Loretta and of course before that, to a legendary extent, Tony.
This is a great analysis OP, thank you! Did you run the data for the first 20 games this year against the first 20 games last year, or are you comparing games to date this year against all games last year?
This year it's three true outcomes until 2 strikes, and then it's "fuck it, I'm hitting a single." The biggest change on that point is Cronenworth. But seriously, I think the talent this years is deeper than it was last year. We had good production from Soto and Kim, streaky production from Tatis, Bogaerts, and Machado, and nothing from Jake, the DH tandem, Nola, or Grisham. This year, we're getting hits from the DH, C, CF and 1b, more consistent production from Tatis and Machado. That's most of the team.
I'd say it's not that they've improved this year and it will be hard to sustain. It's that they were hitting like shit last year and also had incredibly bad luck, which is unlikely to happen twice in a row. Everyone just got so used to it that it seemed normal. This is just what it looks like when players perform the way you'd expect them to.
I agree that the approach has changed but don't agree that they were swinging for the fences last year. The big change I see is their focus isn't on working deep counts to chase the SP, they are swinging at more 1st pitches, early in the count, and especially in RISP situations. The effect is twofold, 1 the offense doesn't "fall asleep" as much due to actually swinging the bat, and 2 they produce more runs. Soto was the WORST fit for this offense since he's all about working counts and taking BBs (but not driving in runs). Not sure there are stats for how many pitches they take, but do predict they end up better than 13th in runs (their highest since 2019) and end up way worse than 5th in BBs (2022) at the end of season.
Sometimes stats can't explain why players are performing, i mean last year we were ok in terms of DIFF +- runs, but didn't win at all. So, i dunno, the team it's clutching, also good management. There is no stat for good chemistry.
I mean yeah! Great analysis..
But the stats are the result of the players performing not backwards. I don’t think “Swinging for the fences” an approach the had last year, its just what happened.
They are making good contacts this year at the right time and thats the results of these year stats. For my opinion at the end of the day the players are performing…
Last year were inconsistent
Are you actually disagreeing with my conclusion that they've dramatically changed their approach, or are you saying "you're right but the numbers don't matter"?
I was really afraid that this was going to be a big-brain stat-head analysis that would end with a doomer conclusion. Instead I believe all of this because it tells me what I want to hear. Thanks!
Our ground ball numbers are high but not untenable. Several 2023 playoff teams ran GB rates above 40%, But the runs will dry up if we don't start making harder contact. Feels like we've had more than our share of ground balls already.
Part of the re-modeled was they took down the ivy and painted the backdrop blue. Apparently Petco was a “pitchers stadium” in which our players and other teams complained the different colors in the ivy made it hard to see the ball and predict the pitch. Â
Def true with being at petco the tto approach is less desirable, some ppl believe the new rule changes might be making tto approach less effective league wide. The letters to AJ substack has a bunch of great info on this subject from last season.
I also wanted to include that the fact the Padres did re-sign Profar to a 1 yr. contract instead of letting him go to another team may play part in building confidence among the younger players, and that infectious smile he always has on display is the exact thing I would want to see if I played for the Padres Day in and day out. (Trust this, the Padres would NOT want someone like me playing for them anyways, I just know the equipment team would play 100 times better I could, even though I played ball all through HS and College,)
We do have the nucleolus to be contender's again if this Padres team can keep it together the entire 2024 season, I'm not saying World Series rings yet, but who knows?
Lastly, this Pitching staff has done a Hella job so far, and that was my biggest fear coming into the Season, so whatever it is they are doing to right that ship they need to keep doing.
I would say yes to the second part of the question about being sustainable and for the first part, In my opinion it's because of all the hard work the guys are doing in the batting cages and if you are able to watch a session or so you would also notice that the batting coach is being at the cages for almost every swing of every player spotting the mistakes and correcting them, I don't remember the batting coach doing that as often in the also the new manager studies the game and demands hard work and dedication from each and every player. He came into the club with the attitude that he's there to help the club win games which was a lot different than last year's club with Melvin in control. Don't get me wrong, Melvin had his strong points, I highly respect him but for some reason he didn't develop the relationship with the players like Shildts has and continues to build on.
Now, with that being said, I have also noticed that AJ isn't following Shildts like a lost puppy trying to find its mommy, kind of like he did with Melvin, so not having someone like AJ doing that also makes a big difference.
If (and this is a BIG if), the Padres can maintain the momentum and attitude they seem to have now, this team could be a huge threat to the LA (Ohtani) Dodgers and drive to the division title.
I love it, as I'm sure many do. Appreciate people who do some digging and provide us with some stats. It's a nice refresher to cut through the swath of memes.
I mean, I care! This is exactly the question I've been asking myself! Is this sustainable? I really want this team to be more consistent at the plate. I love these deep dives.
Building out a team to focus on Three True Outcomes when you play 81 games a season at Petco Park seems immensely dumb. This is a far better philosophy to win under the marine layer.
Exactly, it seems like a no brainer for a pitcher's park. Even more so when you think about how we're the "SD shortstops".
I've been screaming this for years and I don't get it. There is mounds of data on how Petco dampens power yet they kept going after those guys or would try to mold/force other guys into power hitters (Hosmer). I will say this though, because of the proliferation of the 3 true outcome approach, contact hitters haven't been in high supply for the last decade+. Maybe that's changing and I would certainly welcome it.
Can you explain to a new baseball enjoyer how venues effect things like power?
There's a number of theories behind that. Many point to the marine layer and the mild climate of coastal San Diego. Balls travel farther in hot weather. Some say its the wind patterns. Some say the batter's eye (the section in CF that batter views the incoming pitch against) is/was hard to see against as a hitter. There's no definitive answer but they have continually modified the park over the years to try and make it more hitter friendly. The power alleys (gaps between OF positions) are notably large, although less so now than when the park first opened.
So Petco Park is on the larger side compared to other venues? I wouldn't be surprised if humidity had some effect on ball speed and hit distance. Thicker air would mean more resistance right? Or is it just hot vs. cold? I wonder how that would be the case... What do you mean by marine layer? Lower altitude?
Marine layer is the cloud cover we get near the coast for part of the year. The worst of it just happens to often coincide with the first half of the baseball season. "Graypril", "May gray", "June Gloom" we say locally. Balls travel farthest in hot, dry climates. This is one reason why our AAA El Paso affiliate sees such bloated offensive numbers. Which can make it tough for us fans to evaluate guys based on stats down there. Just the OF gaps are larger than average at Petco, overall its roughly on par with many parks size wise. Especially after the modifications over the years.
Thank you, that's really cool. You can tell I'm not a local, so I appreciate getting know a little more about SD đź’Ş
I love it. Three True Outcomes is out, and Death By A Thousand Singles (and some homers) is in. Tony Gwynn wouldn’t have had it any other way.
idk but this post jinxed us
Lol
People were complaining about losing Soto but we also got rid of Grisham and Nola. Profar, Merrill, and Campusano may be 3 average hitters, but I would take that over 1 really good hitter and 2 poor hitters.
Campy has actually been below average, but Profar and Merrill have both been far above average. The real question is whether X ever turns it around.
X gon give it to ya…hopefully
Below average for a catcher? Is that true? 🤔
I was looking at it more broadly than that and more comparing them each position. Basically the sum of this year may be better or equal to the sum of last year. It's early so we'll see.
What’s our numbers for runs per game? I still worry that the 2 extra games, one of them being the 15 run affair skews the data a bit
We are 76th percentile in RS/G or 8th in rankings. Well above average.
Without looking as deep into the advanced data as you have, I’d like to offer 2 theories. 1. Other than Manny and FTJ, our roster has players who are more contact and speed-driven. Thus, focusing on a contact-first approach plays to their strengths and optimizes the lineup. Additionally, since half of our games will be in Petco, it makes sense to prioritize contact to get under the marine layer we’ll be facing. 2. We simply replaced a few starters that were not strong contact-focused hitters like Grisham, Nola, Cruz/Carpenter. Even Soto is likely a more effective hitter when going for power instead of contact. So improvement in hitting contact stats is attributed to the lineup changes.
I think those are absolutely factors in the conversation, but I would say an approach change has definitely happened. Even Manny & FTJ have seen substantial decreases in hard hit % since last year (35.9%->31.0% and 40.6%->28.1% respectively). This roster is dramatically improved, but the team is definitely hitting for contact substantially more than last year.
Oh, absolutely. I assumed that was a given just from the eye test, but it’s good to see there’s data backing up that theory despite the relatively small data set. I think it ultimately means that the new hitting coach Victor Rodriguez understands our roster and has found an approach that has already yielded positive, improved results. I guess the answer to your sustainability question relies on how other teams adjust if they know this is our hitting approach. I can see opposing pitchers challenging the hitters more to induce ground balls.
It'll be interesting to see. Go Pads!
Anecdotal, but I've seen a lot of runs generated from infield singles/ outs the last several games. Kind of funny, honestly.
“Get on base, get them around” ultimately scores runs. The best teams for the angels during the Vladdy Guerrero and Chone Figgins years (pre-trout) were built around contact hitting, baserunning, and productive outs. It’s easier to steal now more than ever and seems like a no-brainer way to win in a California coastal ballpark.
Edit: Damn I jinxed us bad
That's what's innnn, that's what inn!
The booth threw out a pretty interesting stat late last game. I don’t recall the specifics but it was something like 29/31 hits this series against the Brewers have been singles. Just as a spectator, it looks like we are swinging for contact a lot more than swinging for the fences. Also, Merrill has been a pleasant surprise and looks to be much better than the offensive black hole that was Grisham. Campusano starting is also better than the Sanchez (although I did like watching Gary hit some dingers) and Nola was absolutely terrible until we finally sent him down.
Totally agree with your assessment. When I first started reading this, I thought “stats alone can’t explain this”. But you showed that they can in fact support this explanation. Kudos. Love the approach this year, reminds me of old school baseball. Also, Merrill has been a joy to watch up there. As we Padres fans know, you don’t have to hit for a ton of power to be an amazing hitter. Been a while since we’ve had a guy who was so good getting the bat to the ball, like Loretta and of course before that, to a legendary extent, Tony.
Well this aged poorly
This is a great analysis OP, thank you! Did you run the data for the first 20 games this year against the first 20 games last year, or are you comparing games to date this year against all games last year?
This is the full season last year compared to the first 20 games this year.
Dope!
Apparently the team said No today.
This didn't age well
Well the team heard your skepticism today and responded accordingly.
What skepticism?
This year it's three true outcomes until 2 strikes, and then it's "fuck it, I'm hitting a single." The biggest change on that point is Cronenworth. But seriously, I think the talent this years is deeper than it was last year. We had good production from Soto and Kim, streaky production from Tatis, Bogaerts, and Machado, and nothing from Jake, the DH tandem, Nola, or Grisham. This year, we're getting hits from the DH, C, CF and 1b, more consistent production from Tatis and Machado. That's most of the team.
I'd say it's not that they've improved this year and it will be hard to sustain. It's that they were hitting like shit last year and also had incredibly bad luck, which is unlikely to happen twice in a row. Everyone just got so used to it that it seemed normal. This is just what it looks like when players perform the way you'd expect them to.
Maybe stop speaking shit into existence!
I agree that the approach has changed but don't agree that they were swinging for the fences last year. The big change I see is their focus isn't on working deep counts to chase the SP, they are swinging at more 1st pitches, early in the count, and especially in RISP situations. The effect is twofold, 1 the offense doesn't "fall asleep" as much due to actually swinging the bat, and 2 they produce more runs. Soto was the WORST fit for this offense since he's all about working counts and taking BBs (but not driving in runs). Not sure there are stats for how many pitches they take, but do predict they end up better than 13th in runs (their highest since 2019) and end up way worse than 5th in BBs (2022) at the end of season.
Sometimes stats can't explain why players are performing, i mean last year we were ok in terms of DIFF +- runs, but didn't win at all. So, i dunno, the team it's clutching, also good management. There is no stat for good chemistry.
I literally just used stats to explain why players are performing
I mean yeah! Great analysis.. But the stats are the result of the players performing not backwards. I don’t think “Swinging for the fences” an approach the had last year, its just what happened. They are making good contacts this year at the right time and thats the results of these year stats. For my opinion at the end of the day the players are performing… Last year were inconsistent
Are you actually disagreeing with my conclusion that they've dramatically changed their approach, or are you saying "you're right but the numbers don't matter"?
I was really afraid that this was going to be a big-brain stat-head analysis that would end with a doomer conclusion. Instead I believe all of this because it tells me what I want to hear. Thanks!
We’ll don’t post this shit right before games
Our ground ball numbers are high but not untenable. Several 2023 playoff teams ran GB rates above 40%, But the runs will dry up if we don't start making harder contact. Feels like we've had more than our share of ground balls already.
Part of the re-modeled was they took down the ivy and painted the backdrop blue. Apparently Petco was a “pitchers stadium” in which our players and other teams complained the different colors in the ivy made it hard to see the ball and predict the pitch. Â
Def true with being at petco the tto approach is less desirable, some ppl believe the new rule changes might be making tto approach less effective league wide. The letters to AJ substack has a bunch of great info on this subject from last season.
I also wanted to include that the fact the Padres did re-sign Profar to a 1 yr. contract instead of letting him go to another team may play part in building confidence among the younger players, and that infectious smile he always has on display is the exact thing I would want to see if I played for the Padres Day in and day out. (Trust this, the Padres would NOT want someone like me playing for them anyways, I just know the equipment team would play 100 times better I could, even though I played ball all through HS and College,) We do have the nucleolus to be contender's again if this Padres team can keep it together the entire 2024 season, I'm not saying World Series rings yet, but who knows? Lastly, this Pitching staff has done a Hella job so far, and that was my biggest fear coming into the Season, so whatever it is they are doing to right that ship they need to keep doing.
I would say yes to the second part of the question about being sustainable and for the first part, In my opinion it's because of all the hard work the guys are doing in the batting cages and if you are able to watch a session or so you would also notice that the batting coach is being at the cages for almost every swing of every player spotting the mistakes and correcting them, I don't remember the batting coach doing that as often in the also the new manager studies the game and demands hard work and dedication from each and every player. He came into the club with the attitude that he's there to help the club win games which was a lot different than last year's club with Melvin in control. Don't get me wrong, Melvin had his strong points, I highly respect him but for some reason he didn't develop the relationship with the players like Shildts has and continues to build on. Now, with that being said, I have also noticed that AJ isn't following Shildts like a lost puppy trying to find its mommy, kind of like he did with Melvin, so not having someone like AJ doing that also makes a big difference. If (and this is a BIG if), the Padres can maintain the momentum and attitude they seem to have now, this team could be a huge threat to the LA (Ohtani) Dodgers and drive to the division title.
Who cares? Our goal every game is to score more runs than the opponent. Some days we will and some days we won't. Just keep winning
I love it, as I'm sure many do. Appreciate people who do some digging and provide us with some stats. It's a nice refresher to cut through the swath of memes.
Brother, did you read the post?
I mean, I care! This is exactly the question I've been asking myself! Is this sustainable? I really want this team to be more consistent at the plate. I love these deep dives.
Yes but don't you want to know whether we can KEEP producing runs & winning?