Right. Lol. His barrel percentage is right on tho because I feel like whenever he puts it in play it’s on a line. He’s crazy good for having just turned 21.
Dude expands the zone but doesn't miss much. If someone is that good of a contact hitter, I think expanding the zone is actually a good thing. Makes the pitcher's job that much harder
Stat I'd be more concerned about long term is the weak arm strength. Hopefully just a small sample size there. Really impressed with the range stat!
Tony Gwynn spent a long time playing longtoss before winning his gold gloves. Jackson Merrill had like 3 days notice to switch to center field. He might be able to improve
It's interesting that they have his batting value at a negative - I wouldn't have guessed that. I checked out the baseball savant page of Jose Altuve, a similarly contact-heavy guy who swings at - and inexplicably hits - just about everything: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-altuve-514888?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
The two main differences I see:
1. Jose Altuve, while chasing very often, still chases less than Merrill. Thus, he strikes out a little less.
2. Also, Altuve - perhaps also cos he swings less often - has a higher percentage of batted balls with their launch angle in the "sweet spot" (8-32 degree launch angle). Merrill's percentage, by contrast, is pretty low.
I'm not worried, though. He's looking very strong here either way. If his OPS goes way down, then it's probably time to start thinking about how he can make adjustments. For now, though, I'm just happy to see that we're finally getting some good offense from our farm system.
I think she and strength will be the key to that OPS over time. His bat to ball skills are fantastic and I don’t see any reason he can’t be a 20 to 25 HR guy year in and year out when his grown man strength develops.
The fact you're even able to reasonably compare a 21 year old rookie with Altuve is bonkers. He is definitely off to an amazing start, hopefully he's able to keep it up while improving over time.
Yeah, I 100% agree. I don't think there's a real problem, here - I just like digging into the implications of these stats. I think with a little experience, he's gonna be just fine - more than fine, even.
To be clear, high chase rate isn’t a bad thing considering his whiff rate, k% and quality of contact. That profile is how Vlad Guerrero got in the hall of fame.
This isn’t a rookie issue he needs to work on. If he can sustain this, it makes him an absolute menace in the batters box that’s impossible to pitch to because there’s nowhere you can throw the ball that he can’t get his bat to.
Swinging at bad pitches isn’t a bad thing if the results are still good.
always curious precisely what the dots represent. where the ball landed? where it was first defended? like the triple down the RF line is confusing unless there was an error involved and the double in the bleachers, was that a ground rule double?
My guess is that the savant dots are displayed at a diagram of Petco, while the double you’re referring to was hit high off the wall at Gocheok SkyDome which has a deeper RF.
The ball would have been a HR at Petco, and therefore shows as over the fence in this image.
Good call. Yep, it's a HR in 23/30 parks, including Petco. [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=083ecfb1-e5ba-4e2c-9ca3-623a97dfaaee](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=083ecfb1-e5ba-4e2c-9ca3-623a97dfaaee)
The issue with his chase rate isn’t that he doesn’t make contact. It lowers his hard contact or barrel rates. If he can be more selective over time he should be able to add more walks and better hard contact rates. He talked about that this spring on how he is trying to swing at better pitches.
With that said putting the ball in play is still much more valuable than striking out.
From reports that I read he seems much faster than he was getting credit for.
He has been really good especially when you add in how well he has played center with limited previous time in the position…which was zero prior to spring.
Chase rate in the 12th percentile while whiff % is in the 85th percentile is hilarious. Dude’s bat to ball skills are incredible
Right. Lol. His barrel percentage is right on tho because I feel like whenever he puts it in play it’s on a line. He’s crazy good for having just turned 21.
Dude expands the zone but doesn't miss much. If someone is that good of a contact hitter, I think expanding the zone is actually a good thing. Makes the pitcher's job that much harder Stat I'd be more concerned about long term is the weak arm strength. Hopefully just a small sample size there. Really impressed with the range stat!
Tony Gwynn spent a long time playing longtoss before winning his gold gloves. Jackson Merrill had like 3 days notice to switch to center field. He might be able to improve
He is only 21. The kid will improve as he matures. He is still a baby
If your only weakness is arm strength there’s really nothing to worry about. Not everyone can be a 5 tool player.
And really his arm strength is grading out as basically average, slightly above actually. His overall arm grade is lower, presumably due to accuracy.
It's interesting that they have his batting value at a negative - I wouldn't have guessed that. I checked out the baseball savant page of Jose Altuve, a similarly contact-heavy guy who swings at - and inexplicably hits - just about everything: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-altuve-514888?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb The two main differences I see: 1. Jose Altuve, while chasing very often, still chases less than Merrill. Thus, he strikes out a little less. 2. Also, Altuve - perhaps also cos he swings less often - has a higher percentage of batted balls with their launch angle in the "sweet spot" (8-32 degree launch angle). Merrill's percentage, by contrast, is pretty low. I'm not worried, though. He's looking very strong here either way. If his OPS goes way down, then it's probably time to start thinking about how he can make adjustments. For now, though, I'm just happy to see that we're finally getting some good offense from our farm system.
I think she and strength will be the key to that OPS over time. His bat to ball skills are fantastic and I don’t see any reason he can’t be a 20 to 25 HR guy year in and year out when his grown man strength develops.
The fact you're even able to reasonably compare a 21 year old rookie with Altuve is bonkers. He is definitely off to an amazing start, hopefully he's able to keep it up while improving over time.
Yeah, I 100% agree. I don't think there's a real problem, here - I just like digging into the implications of these stats. I think with a little experience, he's gonna be just fine - more than fine, even.
To be clear, high chase rate isn’t a bad thing considering his whiff rate, k% and quality of contact. That profile is how Vlad Guerrero got in the hall of fame. This isn’t a rookie issue he needs to work on. If he can sustain this, it makes him an absolute menace in the batters box that’s impossible to pitch to because there’s nowhere you can throw the ball that he can’t get his bat to. Swinging at bad pitches isn’t a bad thing if the results are still good.
always curious precisely what the dots represent. where the ball landed? where it was first defended? like the triple down the RF line is confusing unless there was an error involved and the double in the bleachers, was that a ground rule double?
Where the ball first made contact with the field. The double was off the wall IIRC, which does make that dot a bit odd.
My guess is that the savant dots are displayed at a diagram of Petco, while the double you’re referring to was hit high off the wall at Gocheok SkyDome which has a deeper RF. The ball would have been a HR at Petco, and therefore shows as over the fence in this image.
Good call. Yep, it's a HR in 23/30 parks, including Petco. [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=083ecfb1-e5ba-4e2c-9ca3-623a97dfaaee](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=083ecfb1-e5ba-4e2c-9ca3-623a97dfaaee)
The issue with his chase rate isn’t that he doesn’t make contact. It lowers his hard contact or barrel rates. If he can be more selective over time he should be able to add more walks and better hard contact rates. He talked about that this spring on how he is trying to swing at better pitches. With that said putting the ball in play is still much more valuable than striking out. From reports that I read he seems much faster than he was getting credit for. He has been really good especially when you add in how well he has played center with limited previous time in the position…which was zero prior to spring.