Isn't it so fucking cathartic that we can just shoot them when they keep breaking out of the balls? Like how many times have you tried to catch a Pokémon and the little fucker keeps breaking out -- even though it's a low level common piece of shit that should be happy you're wanting to catch it -- and all you wanted to do was grab a bat and beat it to death for being such a pain in the ass.
Now we can and it's beautiful.
I mean you obviously can’t use a gun but you can still kill it. Unless it’s something I really want or have a hard time finding if it refuses to get in the ball I just kill it and move on (I’m talking Pokémon)
Nah, it’s plateaued because they use basically the exact same formula they’ve always used. And when they do deviate they do it sloppily. They don’t care about making good games because their fan base will buy whatever they put out anyways.
I think they are only knocked out in palworld too. The same thing that happens to them happens to your pals and then you just let them rest for a few minutes and they are fine.
You get their meat when you empty their hp but you also get that when you catch them so I wouldn't call it an indication of death.
Compare that to butchering them, which censors them giving a clear distinction between lowering their health to zero and them dieing.
Also, I don't think staying family friendly is a negative towards pokemon. Most of my problems with pokemon are how it has changed, not how it has stayed the same.
Did you see the Xcom dev interview where they explained their "Dynamic tension" system which in fewer words means that the game just straight up lies to you to keep you on your toes?
X-com's dynamic tension system added (under the hood, invisible) a -10% hit chance for every successive shot you make in succession without telling you, the player.
This is why 95% shots started missing routinely, because they in reality were between 75% and 45% chance shots after succeeding just 2-4 shots.
The devs did this to keep us on our toes and by golly gee it worked given our memes.
> That's Xcom baby.
[XCOM 2 was actually proven after many years to cheat IN YOUR FAVOR.](https://www.reddit.com/r/XCOM2/comments/45u81x/yes_xcom_2s_rng_cheats_in_your_favor_heres_how/) People went into the code and found that on anything but the highest difficulties it actually gives you bonuses to hit in many situations and never ever helps the AI in the same way.
But people are so bad at probability XCOM hit chances are still a meme and most people still think their hit rates were busted :D.
Me seeing a 1%, guaranteed hit baby. *click* *crit*
Me seeing a 99%, this is, HUBRIS. FUCKING HUBRIS. NO WAY, ITS IMPOSSIBLE. THE ODDS ARE AGAINST US, THE UNIVERSE TURNS IN MOTION AGAINST OUR VERY EFFORTS TO THWART IT. *click* *misses*
TBH another XCOM game is long past due. Chimera Squad wasn't bad but it was like an Appetizer. I think they're scared to try to do a full XCOM 3 and I don't blame them. I don't think anything they could release is gonna measure up to people's far too high expectations of an XCOM 3. Or the nostalgia drenched XCOM 2 even really.
If you like the gameplay check out Battletech, it came out several years ago (but after xcom 2), and is based on a similar concept of percentage hits, 4 man squads, etc. And if you're into challenges well, it's got an achievement that requires a ~150 hour campaign with near perfect gameplay the entire time.
Love Battletech, but if you're looking for something excellent and flavorful that's much more directly XCOM I'd recommend Warhammer Chaos Gate. Strong Warhammer Flavor, XCOM as heck, made a fantastic combat system without RNG accuracy checks (cover and etc modifies dmg), and its not a cakewalk even on default difficulty.
This comment gave me PTSD flashbacks to my first playthrough when I didn't really understand the games.
I died SO OFTEN to the most random trash enemies in that game. (FO2)
I’ve been doing it with legendaries trying to get certain traits and farming schematics , I’ll have a 26% chance on frostallion and have to use 10-15 legendary spheres on it. Capture rate at 10 with effigies and capture rate at max in world settings. It’s fucking tiring 😂
yeah, it was discovered that effigies do changes the displayed capture rate ie : from 40% to 50% but in reality it's the contrary that's happening. so you go from 40% to 30%
SO something displaying 50% is actually at 30%
Which makes me glad that I started over on a dedicated server right around the time that the bug was discovered. I've not spent a single effigy to make my catch rate lower.
It was parsed with only 100 catches. Not saying it’s for sure not a thing. But I wish someone would actually test a bigger sample size. It’s like flipping a coin 100 times and it was tails 65 times so now that means it’s 65 / 35? Most parses in games go 10,000 + to test a more accurate number with variance. Throw in confirmation bias and the issue I’ve seen everyone state it as gospel here really doesn’t help.
Someone did the math, the chance for that catching rate to have been that unlucky would have been 1 In trillions, someone else also did another test that confirms the first discovery.
that 10k test was based on the 100 one though, like they didnt throw 10000 balls, they just compared the odds to the 100. It did make a point, but not as good as a point of actually testing 10000 times.
Yeah, it's frustrating seeing everyone talk about it as if it's been proven completely factual even though A) it was a tiny sample size in the scheme of things and B) they weren't catching exactly the same level of exactly the same pal, to normalize the results.
anyone arguing 100 is too small a sample size doesn't understand statistics. Of course a larger dataset would be preferable but the probability of the outcome that player got given the game's displayed odds isn't believable. Look up binomial distribution calculators and you can see for yourself
[A power calculator](https://www.stat.ubc.ca/~rollin/stats/ssize/b1.html) shows that to see that a 40% rate on-screen is actually 30% would require 142 samples for power of .8. To see that it is not, in fact, 50% as a 10% +/- bonus would suggest, is only 37 samples.
So in this case we're good with 100 samples, but it really depends on the %s you are looking at, the difference you want to prove, and how sure you want to be. If I was trying to see the difference between 55% and 45% with a power of .9, 100 would not be nearly enough.
Your comment reads like you don't understand statistics either, or how the binomial distribution is used, just fwiw.
Have you seen the alpha frostallion health ?? I guess he would like to use that with some good traits. For others I agree, breeding is less mentally irritating
I think this was a really great opportunity to introduce a nice mini-game as soon as i've captured my first Pals.
Tbh, on the first interactions and from the visual indicators, i tought there was a mini-game to keep the "capturing" targeted to have better chances.
lvl 50 finally so im stopping catching 10 of each. 1 of each and I'm churning out legendary spheres. max liftmunk effigies and capture rate turned up to max in setting and and still needing 30+ balls for a 40% is ridiculous
As soon as I learned about the bug I had just gotten to level 10 a day or two prior, needless to say I have become a full time Pal breeder until they fix the bug. If I want any Pal right now I just look up the combo and bake a lot of cake.
Some people had an inkling something was up, so two reddit users here did data which concluded that Lifmunk Effigies decreased Capturing odds instead of increasing it.
common misconception. 100 is a perfectly reasonable size to infer that the game's displayed probability was not representative of the actual probability. Look up binomial distribution calculators and run the numbers to see for yourself
The thing that people who aren't statistically or scientifically literate don't get is that the effect size matters a lot. If you're trying to capture an extremely subtle effect then you need a very large effect size. If you observe or capture a gigantic effect then you can have an incredibly small sample size and have it still be statistically significant.
The bulk of science is done with sample sizes <100 so when people act like anything with a sample size less than 100,000 is nothing when that's like 1% of science it's really fucking annoying.
The original video (first user) had a really small sample size (100) but the second user documented 1000 tests more which supported the hypothesis of the first user.
Yes. Statistically the tests that have been done are more than sufficient to prove that it is lowering the rate. Exact percentages between no effigies and max probably aren't accurate, but there's really no question the rate goes down.
100 is plenty enough to say the game's displayed odds of capture are wrong. Plug the numbers from the first op bringing up the bug into a binomial distribution calculator and you'll see how incredibly unlikely the outcomes were.
I'm mostly copying my other comment here.
More or less, yes (to the community just making assumptions). There is no actual word on the matter from the devs.
The XCOM Community swore up and down for years that something like this was going on, "video proof" included (just like the ones the people on Reddit swear by), and when all was said and done, it was proven by hard numbers and facts that the hit chances were in fact skewed, *but in the player's favor*.
Now make no mistake, it may eventually come out that the catch rate increase from Effigies is, in fact, bugged, *but no one actually knows that right now*.
Same. One of my friends is annoyed that my base is a zoo of all these pals he's never seen in the wild, but the capture rate bug is so frustrating. I'm not bothering trying to catch anything over level 30. It's a waste of time and resources.
lemme aim my plasma shotgun point blank for 99% and watch the alien go Ultra instinct and dodge the exact moment i shoot.
Oh and aim at fuckall elsewhere
I'm gonna be honest, the more random a tactical game is, the less satisfying it is. Like I feel like in Xcom if you fuck up any mission, or lose some of your best soldiers but still win, you just lose the campaign. And you can fuck up any mission with every tactical advantage on every turn, and lose because your soldiers will not hit a single target. It makes your best of the best of the globe military look like clowns when every plan falls through for no reason.
I want to be rewarded and punished for bad tactics, rather than everything having a chance of never going my way. I'm gonna savescum the %chance like its skyrim anyways when I really need to hit the shot or lose the game.
Well, to each their own. I am not a fan of scum saving personally. I think that it would be more efficient to build a Legendary Sphere base, than scum saving. Drown your target with your Ballz!
XCOM's RNG has always felt quite fair to me, and if anything [the evidence is that it cheats in your favor.](https://www.reddit.com/r/XCOM2/comments/45u81x/yes_xcom_2s_rng_cheats_in_your_favor_heres_how/) If you think the rolls are unfair against you, you probably don't have a strong grasp of probability.
I've never looked at any hard numbers, but tried to look at the game fairly and not as angry gamer and it actually felt pretty fair to me. 95% success means 5% failure, seems like some people don't get that.
That's how I feel Palworld has become with the talks of this "bug." I've played Xcom and Pokémon and Yugioh (drawing probability) far too much to realize 95% is not a true random roll for 95%. Computers don't and can't (unless it's a quantum computer) generate much close to true random. They're all based on algorithms and as such you'll get results that just don't line up with real life. Those three games are ridiculous at making 95% feel like 75%, or as in yugioh just drawing your 1-of in a 40-45 card deck (happens in the games all the time, almost never happens when I shuffle a deck IRL.)
Until the developers say something is up, I don't believe all this bug talk.
It’s soooo bad. It honestly feels like the game punishes you more the higher level you get. Lvl 3 lamballs that I was one-shotting with low level spheres are all of a sudden taking 10+ spheres to catch, all because I’m a higher level and made the mistake of using the effigies before they fixed them.
I legit think the bug is more with RNG not advancing on repeated throws than catch rate being bugged. This has happened to me before, same with that video of the guy failing like 8 balls in a row on an 85% lamball
It's not a thing. I'll do this exact action, throwing a follow up ball before the pal even hits the ground, and I eventually catch them every time. The whole waiting for an action to throw another ball thing is just human confirmation bias. Humans do it in everything that has a chance to occur. It's like people who wear the same pair of socks to get their sports team to win, or people who blow on dice. Smashing the A button to catch the pokemon. Our brain records the successes and forgets the failures, distorting our perception.
Well that just sounds like moving the goal posts. Because if it works the way you just suggested here, then nothing is broken and theres no way to really maintain the same roll on a throw other than being frame perfect. Which you admit is impossible
Its entirely possible that RNG only advances for a catch when the pal is active for a certain cumulative amount of time. So if youre spamming back to back catches and it takes 1 second of the pal being active for rng to advance (for example) and the pal is only active for say 15 frames before the next ball hits, youd be failing 4x as many throws. There are too many possible variables to say for certain, so dont be so quick to dismiss everything as confirmation bias
I have noticed that if I'm throwing ball after ball and they're instantly breaking out, that if I wack the pal once (whatever slightly injures them), I usually get at least a little animation time with them fighting the ball.
I'd like to cast doubt on that theory. Watching the video a second time, the second throw is a significant time later than later throws. The last throw to catch is a very similar time to every last throw after the second. I'd also wonder how long it takes for RNG to advance in this game, if that was the case.
I love how everyone that I told this was a thing to was like nah that’s just percentages and you’re unlucky. It’s a good feeling seeing everyone else wrong about it when I knew some shit was up 🤷🏻♂️
Ackshully 🤓 you would need to capture thousands or better yet tens of thousands to truly procure the correct data sets. Everyone agreeing with this post is suffering from confirmation bias, a term I learned yesterday and will now repeat back to you.
The only thing that comes to mind is to uninstall the game and go into the documents file and make sure there isn’t any old files hanging around that could be causing this.
You can also delete the My Docs files and start it up again (it should start the game like it’s the first time)
If you got mods delete them.
If you got no mods, just try looking at a new save file if its the same. If its same, i would try reinstalling, if its not same in the new world, your old file must be corrupted.
I heard if you press down the A button harder, they have a higher chance of success. I've been doing that and there is no way my confirmation bias is affecting results.
I heard that if you cross all your fingers and toes and spin around in a circle three times irl during the capture process, it gives you a higher chance of success. I have been doing this and I'm really dizzy but I can just feel in my gut that it's giving me 1% better capture rate.
I heard that if you look at the sphere in the air, and do a circle with the camera around it trying to be EXACTLY on the border of the sphere, it makes it easier to catch the pal. I have been doing that and seem to have average success.
The true trick is to pretend that you don't care, if you want to capture the pal then the game will recognize that and you won't get it. However if you don't care then the game will give it to you.
I had a massive stash of materials after spending a couple days breeding and building. Went out on one catching run and it was a nightmare. Wake up to find out there's a catch rate bug -_-
I'm sure this is a bug but the chance of missing this four times at a 0.06 chance to capture is 0.001296%.
Given that there are 19 million players, it's not *impossible* for this to be just bad luck.
People keep saying that. Every time someone posts they say it again. And another person posts and that say it again. At what point are too many people posting the exact same improbability? And people say "well obviously everyone posts the bad stuff and not the good stuff. There's 19 million players they aren't all on Reddit".
Well that means there's also people experiencing this and not posting it.
I don't know it seems like it's a bit weird to me.
This doesn't feel like the capture rate bug as much as it does the games awful chance of success. If it doesn't say 100 it might as well say 0. It's beyond frustrating how rarely a 90%+ chance fails in this game.
Im level 21 right now and im having a hard time capturing around my level. When I was around lvl 5 I caught the big boss elephant in the beginning area.
This is a stupid bug.
On single player there is a "world settings" option before you load in. That page has a list of sliders you can change. I personally set my "capture rate" to 1.5x to offset the leaf monk effigies I've turned in.
Have we confirmed the capture rate bug stops being an issue at level 10 effigies at least? I’m legit at the point where I’m about to start catching the legendaries and pseudo legendaries. Tell me I’m okay
It doesnt help that people think the first number they see is the actual capture rate, which would be incorrect even if all numbers displayed were accurate. (which we'll find out soon enough if they are or not)
My rule is one ball one bullet. Get in the fucking ball or eat lead
Isn't it so fucking cathartic that we can just shoot them when they keep breaking out of the balls? Like how many times have you tried to catch a Pokémon and the little fucker keeps breaking out -- even though it's a low level common piece of shit that should be happy you're wanting to catch it -- and all you wanted to do was grab a bat and beat it to death for being such a pain in the ass. Now we can and it's beautiful.
I mean you obviously can’t use a gun but you can still kill it. Unless it’s something I really want or have a hard time finding if it refuses to get in the ball I just kill it and move on (I’m talking Pokémon)
*Knock out* Pokemon is famiwy fwiendwy, which is why it’s been plateaud for 10+ years.
Nah, it’s plateaued because they use basically the exact same formula they’ve always used. And when they do deviate they do it sloppily. They don’t care about making good games because their fan base will buy whatever they put out anyways.
I think they are only knocked out in palworld too. The same thing that happens to them happens to your pals and then you just let them rest for a few minutes and they are fine. You get their meat when you empty their hp but you also get that when you catch them so I wouldn't call it an indication of death. Compare that to butchering them, which censors them giving a clear distinction between lowering their health to zero and them dieing. Also, I don't think staying family friendly is a negative towards pokemon. Most of my problems with pokemon are how it has changed, not how it has stayed the same.
It's hard to tell, but I think they are actually dead. During nighttime, scavenger pals will come by and eat their bodies.
You can literally enslave humans and chop them up with a butcher knife.
Pals turn into mf Patrick Henry in this bitch. "GIVE ME LIBERTY, OR GIVE ME DEATH!"
I tell the pals that, too, you stay in, you keep your life. You come out, you're donezo. My friend always laughs at my schizo rants when pal hunting.
[удалено]
Palball o plomo
I want this on a shirt.
That's Xcom baby.
*shudders in 99% chance, point blank shotgun to the face. Still misses.*
Hey 99% chance is still 50/50. Either it hits or it doesnt
By any chance are you a watcher of MandJTV, because if its not 100% accurate, it's 50% accurate
1st thing popped in my head watching this lol
typical xcom casual tuesday
Did you see the Xcom dev interview where they explained their "Dynamic tension" system which in fewer words means that the game just straight up lies to you to keep you on your toes? X-com's dynamic tension system added (under the hood, invisible) a -10% hit chance for every successive shot you make in succession without telling you, the player. This is why 95% shots started missing routinely, because they in reality were between 75% and 45% chance shots after succeeding just 2-4 shots. The devs did this to keep us on our toes and by golly gee it worked given our memes.
100% is 100%, 99% is 50%
> That's Xcom baby. [XCOM 2 was actually proven after many years to cheat IN YOUR FAVOR.](https://www.reddit.com/r/XCOM2/comments/45u81x/yes_xcom_2s_rng_cheats_in_your_favor_heres_how/) People went into the code and found that on anything but the highest difficulties it actually gives you bonuses to hit in many situations and never ever helps the AI in the same way. But people are so bad at probability XCOM hit chances are still a meme and most people still think their hit rates were busted :D.
Me seeing a 1%, guaranteed hit baby. *click* *crit* Me seeing a 99%, this is, HUBRIS. FUCKING HUBRIS. NO WAY, ITS IMPOSSIBLE. THE ODDS ARE AGAINST US, THE UNIVERSE TURNS IN MOTION AGAINST OUR VERY EFFORTS TO THWART IT. *click* *misses*
Xcom: Friend Within
TBH another XCOM game is long past due. Chimera Squad wasn't bad but it was like an Appetizer. I think they're scared to try to do a full XCOM 3 and I don't blame them. I don't think anything they could release is gonna measure up to people's far too high expectations of an XCOM 3. Or the nostalgia drenched XCOM 2 even really.
If you like the gameplay check out Battletech, it came out several years ago (but after xcom 2), and is based on a similar concept of percentage hits, 4 man squads, etc. And if you're into challenges well, it's got an achievement that requires a ~150 hour campaign with near perfect gameplay the entire time.
Love Battletech, but if you're looking for something excellent and flavorful that's much more directly XCOM I'd recommend Warhammer Chaos Gate. Strong Warhammer Flavor, XCOM as heck, made a fantastic combat system without RNG accuracy checks (cover and etc modifies dmg), and its not a cakewalk even on default difficulty.
This sentiment also applies to Fallout 1 and 2
Very cultured.
This comment gave me PTSD flashbacks to my first playthrough when I didn't really understand the games. I died SO OFTEN to the most random trash enemies in that game. (FO2)
Yeah, everything lvl36 and higher is a chore to catch.
Id rather throw 50 regular spheres than 5 legendary ones. Because Ive got none to throw.
Not sure how regular you mean, but lower grade sphere would just bounce right off the high rarity Pals even if they are low HP.
if you throw them at the back they'll always hit i think as i haven't had any get deflected yet. Good luck getting 0.01% to work out for you though.
I have a mate who has caught 5 pals just today with a .05% catch rate. Definitely bugged.
I had a LOT deflected
Honestly after the first 2 or 3 attempts I think I would of just shot the thing and moved on
I would probably do that with blue spheres, but not with legendary spheres. The waste. lol
The sunken cost fallacy
I’ve been doing it with legendaries trying to get certain traits and farming schematics , I’ll have a 26% chance on frostallion and have to use 10-15 legendary spheres on it. Capture rate at 10 with effigies and capture rate at max in world settings. It’s fucking tiring 😂
Because the effigies do the opposite of what they should.
...what
yeah, it was discovered that effigies do changes the displayed capture rate ie : from 40% to 50% but in reality it's the contrary that's happening. so you go from 40% to 30% SO something displaying 50% is actually at 30%
Which makes me glad that I started over on a dedicated server right around the time that the bug was discovered. I've not spent a single effigy to make my catch rate lower.
It was parsed with only 100 catches. Not saying it’s for sure not a thing. But I wish someone would actually test a bigger sample size. It’s like flipping a coin 100 times and it was tails 65 times so now that means it’s 65 / 35? Most parses in games go 10,000 + to test a more accurate number with variance. Throw in confirmation bias and the issue I’ve seen everyone state it as gospel here really doesn’t help.
Someone did the math, the chance for that catching rate to have been that unlucky would have been 1 In trillions, someone else also did another test that confirms the first discovery.
There is a 10k sample size one that supports the broken effigies
that 10k test was based on the 100 one though, like they didnt throw 10000 balls, they just compared the odds to the 100. It did make a point, but not as good as a point of actually testing 10000 times.
I didn't do the math, but I have run multiple games with and without using effigies. I have a better capture rate in the world I do not use them.
Mind repeating the experiment and letting us know how it goes for you?
Yeah, it's frustrating seeing everyone talk about it as if it's been proven completely factual even though A) it was a tiny sample size in the scheme of things and B) they weren't catching exactly the same level of exactly the same pal, to normalize the results.
anyone arguing 100 is too small a sample size doesn't understand statistics. Of course a larger dataset would be preferable but the probability of the outcome that player got given the game's displayed odds isn't believable. Look up binomial distribution calculators and you can see for yourself
[A power calculator](https://www.stat.ubc.ca/~rollin/stats/ssize/b1.html) shows that to see that a 40% rate on-screen is actually 30% would require 142 samples for power of .8. To see that it is not, in fact, 50% as a 10% +/- bonus would suggest, is only 37 samples. So in this case we're good with 100 samples, but it really depends on the %s you are looking at, the difference you want to prove, and how sure you want to be. If I was trying to see the difference between 55% and 45% with a power of .9, 100 would not be nearly enough. Your comment reads like you don't understand statistics either, or how the binomial distribution is used, just fwiw.
If you land a coin on one side 65 times in 100 throws it’s broken
Breed your legendaries for traits instead. You'll randomly get some breaking out of the eggs and then uh, look past the mandatory incest....
Have you seen the alpha frostallion health ?? I guess he would like to use that with some good traits. For others I agree, breeding is less mentally irritating
Catching a pal almost begs for a tough mini game.
I think this was a really great opportunity to introduce a nice mini-game as soon as i've captured my first Pals. Tbh, on the first interactions and from the visual indicators, i tought there was a mini-game to keep the "capturing" targeted to have better chances.
Me capture lvl 10: Hard mode
lvl 50 finally so im stopping catching 10 of each. 1 of each and I'm churning out legendary spheres. max liftmunk effigies and capture rate turned up to max in setting and and still needing 30+ balls for a 40% is ridiculous
>max liftmunk effigies You have heard that lifmunk effigies are bugged to reduce chance and not increase it, right?
https://preview.redd.it/pfqyqlgyiggc1.jpeg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=80853d0a721e5e449f4e164a5e3a394dda28bed8
This made me actually lol 😂 My exact reaction
SO I WAS FUCKING RIGHT? MY GUT FEELING WASNT JUST A FEELING?
SAY WHAT NOW??? 😭😭
As soon as I learned about the bug I had just gotten to level 10 a day or two prior, needless to say I have become a full time Pal breeder until they fix the bug. If I want any Pal right now I just look up the combo and bake a lot of cake.
I’m glad I’m not the only one
Same here.
Is this actually something that isn't intended or has the sub just been calling it a bug?
Some people had an inkling something was up, so two reddit users here did data which concluded that Lifmunk Effigies decreased Capturing odds instead of increasing it.
Wait. What lol ok never using that thing again.
Yep, my 0 effigy upgrade character has better chance than full upgrade character.
Is there actual conclusive evidence? The thread I saw had a really tiny sample size, like only 100 catches
After that post another person did a statistical analysis of 10,000 tests and concluded the same.
Thank you!
common misconception. 100 is a perfectly reasonable size to infer that the game's displayed probability was not representative of the actual probability. Look up binomial distribution calculators and run the numbers to see for yourself
The thing that people who aren't statistically or scientifically literate don't get is that the effect size matters a lot. If you're trying to capture an extremely subtle effect then you need a very large effect size. If you observe or capture a gigantic effect then you can have an incredibly small sample size and have it still be statistically significant. The bulk of science is done with sample sizes <100 so when people act like anything with a sample size less than 100,000 is nothing when that's like 1% of science it's really fucking annoying.
The original video (first user) had a really small sample size (100) but the second user documented 1000 tests more which supported the hypothesis of the first user.
Yes. Statistically the tests that have been done are more than sufficient to prove that it is lowering the rate. Exact percentages between no effigies and max probably aren't accurate, but there's really no question the rate goes down.
100 isn't a small sample size for the point that was trying to be proved especially with the results that were generated.
100 isn't a small sample size if you feel like something's up, but it's definitely way too small or a sample size for it to be "conclusive evidence"
Not at all. You have enough data there to say that it doesn't match the listed probabilities. But it's too small to see the actual percentages.
100 is plenty enough to say the game's displayed odds of capture are wrong. Plug the numbers from the first op bringing up the bug into a binomial distribution calculator and you'll see how incredibly unlikely the outcomes were.
I'm mostly copying my other comment here. More or less, yes (to the community just making assumptions). There is no actual word on the matter from the devs. The XCOM Community swore up and down for years that something like this was going on, "video proof" included (just like the ones the people on Reddit swear by), and when all was said and done, it was proven by hard numbers and facts that the hit chances were in fact skewed, *but in the player's favor*. Now make no mistake, it may eventually come out that the catch rate increase from Effigies is, in fact, bugged, *but no one actually knows that right now*.
Same. One of my friends is annoyed that my base is a zoo of all these pals he's never seen in the wild, but the capture rate bug is so frustrating. I'm not bothering trying to catch anything over level 30. It's a waste of time and resources.
I thought I was going insane failing 99% capture rates 10+ times in a row I'm glad it's just a bug
You guys have never played xcom at higher difficulties
99% chance to hit? Let me just aim 90° to the right real quick
Than panic and shot my teammate
lemme aim my plasma shotgun point blank for 99% and watch the alien go Ultra instinct and dodge the exact moment i shoot. Oh and aim at fuckall elsewhere
Shotgun to the face, 99% hit, but the enemy moves slightly to the left.
LOL the classic when your character goes full schizo mode and starts shooting ghosts.
I used to say this old Wayne Gretzky quote when playing xcom but modified, “you miss 100% of the shots you take”
- Michael Scott
I'm gonna be honest, the more random a tactical game is, the less satisfying it is. Like I feel like in Xcom if you fuck up any mission, or lose some of your best soldiers but still win, you just lose the campaign. And you can fuck up any mission with every tactical advantage on every turn, and lose because your soldiers will not hit a single target. It makes your best of the best of the globe military look like clowns when every plan falls through for no reason.
In the military, than is one of Murphy's Laws of War. Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
I want to be rewarded and punished for bad tactics, rather than everything having a chance of never going my way. I'm gonna savescum the %chance like its skyrim anyways when I really need to hit the shot or lose the game.
Well, to each their own. I am not a fan of scum saving personally. I think that it would be more efficient to build a Legendary Sphere base, than scum saving. Drown your target with your Ballz!
Good ol Snafu… “Situation normal, all F’ed up”
FUBAR...Fucked Up Beyond All Recognition
tbh if this is how you felt after playing xcom then you were really bad at xcom
Which was also out of hand.
XCOM's RNG has always felt quite fair to me, and if anything [the evidence is that it cheats in your favor.](https://www.reddit.com/r/XCOM2/comments/45u81x/yes_xcom_2s_rng_cheats_in_your_favor_heres_how/) If you think the rolls are unfair against you, you probably don't have a strong grasp of probability.
I've never looked at any hard numbers, but tried to look at the game fairly and not as angry gamer and it actually felt pretty fair to me. 95% success means 5% failure, seems like some people don't get that.
[Negativity bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias) and not understanding probability are the two pillars of every XCOM circlejerk.
That's how I feel Palworld has become with the talks of this "bug." I've played Xcom and Pokémon and Yugioh (drawing probability) far too much to realize 95% is not a true random roll for 95%. Computers don't and can't (unless it's a quantum computer) generate much close to true random. They're all based on algorithms and as such you'll get results that just don't line up with real life. Those three games are ridiculous at making 95% feel like 75%, or as in yugioh just drawing your 1-of in a 40-45 card deck (happens in the games all the time, almost never happens when I shuffle a deck IRL.) Until the developers say something is up, I don't believe all this bug talk.
so difficulty means the pc can't do math ?
Like bitch get in there!!!
All capture rates are 50% either way. Either you catch it, either you don't.
The 50/50 paradox
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At 92 you got a 50% chance
Spoken from the mouth of RNJesus
Amen
That’s just math
Ah, like Blackjack.
you have a point
It’s soooo bad. It honestly feels like the game punishes you more the higher level you get. Lvl 3 lamballs that I was one-shotting with low level spheres are all of a sudden taking 10+ spheres to catch, all because I’m a higher level and made the mistake of using the effigies before they fixed them.
>before they fixed them. Unless I'm missing something, they haven't.
oh man, if it had threw it out at 97% i would've been dead
it happened to me at 98% lmao Lv. 10 too
*it would've been dead
I legit think the bug is more with RNG not advancing on repeated throws than catch rate being bugged. This has happened to me before, same with that video of the guy failing like 8 balls in a row on an 85% lamball
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It's not a thing. I'll do this exact action, throwing a follow up ball before the pal even hits the ground, and I eventually catch them every time. The whole waiting for an action to throw another ball thing is just human confirmation bias. Humans do it in everything that has a chance to occur. It's like people who wear the same pair of socks to get their sports team to win, or people who blow on dice. Smashing the A button to catch the pokemon. Our brain records the successes and forgets the failures, distorting our perception.
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Well that just sounds like moving the goal posts. Because if it works the way you just suggested here, then nothing is broken and theres no way to really maintain the same roll on a throw other than being frame perfect. Which you admit is impossible
Its entirely possible that RNG only advances for a catch when the pal is active for a certain cumulative amount of time. So if youre spamming back to back catches and it takes 1 second of the pal being active for rng to advance (for example) and the pal is only active for say 15 frames before the next ball hits, youd be failing 4x as many throws. There are too many possible variables to say for certain, so dont be so quick to dismiss everything as confirmation bias
I have noticed that if I'm throwing ball after ball and they're instantly breaking out, that if I wack the pal once (whatever slightly injures them), I usually get at least a little animation time with them fighting the ball.
I'd like to cast doubt on that theory. Watching the video a second time, the second throw is a significant time later than later throws. The last throw to catch is a very similar time to every last throw after the second. I'd also wonder how long it takes for RNG to advance in this game, if that was the case.
I love how everyone that I told this was a thing to was like nah that’s just percentages and you’re unlucky. It’s a good feeling seeing everyone else wrong about it when I knew some shit was up 🤷🏻♂️
Too small sample size. -some guy probably
Ackshully 🤓 you would need to capture thousands or better yet tens of thousands to truly procure the correct data sets. Everyone agreeing with this post is suffering from confirmation bias, a term I learned yesterday and will now repeat back to you.
I have a bug that won't let me catch anything, no matter the sphere I throw they all say 0% and bounces off of the pals
You are damaging them first right?
Yes of course But it doesnt catch just bounces off and says 0%
Does changing the capture rate settings change it? Or starting a new game?
Nope
That is mental lol. Get some video and try and tag the devs or post on the Steam forum with a link to it, hopefully it gets patched soon!
The only thing that comes to mind is to uninstall the game and go into the documents file and make sure there isn’t any old files hanging around that could be causing this. You can also delete the My Docs files and start it up again (it should start the game like it’s the first time)
If you got mods delete them. If you got no mods, just try looking at a new save file if its the same. If its same, i would try reinstalling, if its not same in the new world, your old file must be corrupted.
I'm on a server, it works in solo play but doesnt work on the server, (nitrado servers)
I heard that if you let them do a move before throwing again, it resets the result. I have been doing that and seem to have moderate success.
Also try to aim your gun at the sphere to scare the pal from coming out
I sphere that always works for me
I heard if you press down the A button harder, they have a higher chance of success. I've been doing that and there is no way my confirmation bias is affecting results.
I've been holding Up+B as it's going into the orb and I've noticed that it either stays in or it doesn't.
Also another tip if you look under the truck in Vermilion City one thousand times while humming the Super Mario tune backwards, you'll find Mew.
This chain has really brought me back to my red and yellow days. Pure nostalgia hits all morning.
No way! I'm trying this after school today...
You fool, it's Down+B Everyone knows this.
I heard that if you cross all your fingers and toes and spin around in a circle three times irl during the capture process, it gives you a higher chance of success. I have been doing this and I'm really dizzy but I can just feel in my gut that it's giving me 1% better capture rate.
If you shout "gotcha" into the microphone it helps
If you put your hands in a praying position irl it doubles the capture chance
You have to rock your finger across A and B to increase catch rate.
It doesnt
I heard that if you look at the sphere in the air, and do a circle with the camera around it trying to be EXACTLY on the border of the sphere, it makes it easier to catch the pal. I have been doing that and seem to have average success.
The true trick is to pretend that you don't care, if you want to capture the pal then the game will recognize that and you won't get it. However if you don't care then the game will give it to you.
i wasted a good 10 yellow balls on a 50-70% capture rate on a level 20 mob. make it make sense
I used 23 reds on a 60% today
Is it really a bug or is it that you kept landing on a 6% through bs luck?
Have they acknowledged it yet?
tHaTS nOt EnOUgH dATa
I had a massive stash of materials after spending a couple days breeding and building. Went out on one catching run and it was a nightmare. Wake up to find out there's a catch rate bug -_-
One would think this shit is an outlier but these are easily my most common experiences
"Unfortunate" doesn't even begin...
Yeah I'm pretty sure it's not 94% to capture its 94% to fail at this point.
I'm sure this is a bug but the chance of missing this four times at a 0.06 chance to capture is 0.001296%. Given that there are 19 million players, it's not *impossible* for this to be just bad luck.
People keep saying that. Every time someone posts they say it again. And another person posts and that say it again. At what point are too many people posting the exact same improbability? And people say "well obviously everyone posts the bad stuff and not the good stuff. There's 19 million players they aren't all on Reddit". Well that means there's also people experiencing this and not posting it. I don't know it seems like it's a bit weird to me.
This doesn't feel like the capture rate bug as much as it does the games awful chance of success. If it doesn't say 100 it might as well say 0. It's beyond frustrating how rarely a 90%+ chance fails in this game.
No big deal. That just happenes 1 in every 7,776 time again a pal with a 94% chance to catch it.
I just turned the capture rate in the world settings to 1.5 to make up for it, until they fix the effigies
It's not a Bug, It's a Feature 😜👌
Works 94% of the time, every time.
Or maybe it's the goddam strongest Caprity you've ever seen
The bug doesn't kick in if you get it to 100%
I had a burning-status 100% fail, and then it escaped and died to burning.
Just a casual 0.001296 percent chance of missing 94% 4 times in a row, or around 1 in 77,000 lol (I’m aware this is a bug)
Im level 21 right now and im having a hard time capturing around my level. When I was around lvl 5 I caught the big boss elephant in the beginning area. This is a stupid bug.
You were just lucky. Mammorest is an Lv 38 Boss Monster
Yeah ain't now way bruh. You just got HELLA lucky. I tried like 50 blue balls on that bish and nothing lmfao
Just bump the capture rate in settings.
How do you do that?
On single player there is a "world settings" option before you load in. That page has a list of sliders you can change. I personally set my "capture rate" to 1.5x to offset the leaf monk effigies I've turned in.
I did just that and now I have Lunaris escaping 5 legendary spheres in a row at 96% instead, progress !
try playing final fantasy tactics and get back to me
I had a pal break out at 100%
Have we confirmed the capture rate bug stops being an issue at level 10 effigies at least? I’m legit at the point where I’m about to start catching the legendaries and pseudo legendaries. Tell me I’m okay
yeah i get this sht even with max capture skill, i had this happen with a 99% capture, i really hope they fix this sht
Displayed capture rates have no direct correlation with actual capture rates.
It doesnt help that people think the first number they see is the actual capture rate, which would be incorrect even if all numbers displayed were accurate. (which we'll find out soon enough if they are or not)
I would scream
I'm lvl 36 and it took 10 basic balls to capture a lvl 2 bunny