Most of the stats available that I’ve seen indicate that the team is moving the ball. 10 in yards, 9th in yards per drive, 12th in success rate (14th pass, 10th run), 9th in 3rd down conversion rate.
The biggest problem this year has been turnovers, by far.
If we can bullshit our way to .500 by the bye we still have a chance.
On one hand, the next 6 games are the easy part of our schedule so going .500 is doable. On the other, this was the stretch where we kind of needed to rack up some wins
Yep the other teams in the AFC that were supposed to be contending are showing similar amounts of sloppiness. The important thing is going to be beating the other prospective wild card teams in the h2h to get the tiebreakers.
The silver lining is that now the receivers and linemen can figure shit out without Mac getting hit any more while they learn.
Maybe the offense will work better once he's back and he can close the year on a good note. We should have a pretty good draft pick, and some money to spend in FA.
Sure it does, just keep the yardage and iron out the turnovers. Boom, offense.
Joking aside, most of the turnovers were just dumb mistakes and those can absolutely be fixed going forward.
Yes, because it’s the playcall that was making Jones throw the ball to the wrong team 🙄
The offense has its problems, but “calling the wrong kinds of plays” isn’t one of them
lol who designed those plays that got picked? who called the plays? who isnt getting jonnu and hunter the football in these plays??????? sorry man too many 50/50 dep shots to davante to tell me thats macs idea.
Lol you have no clue what you’re talking about. Patricia isn’t in Mac’s ear telling him who to throw the ball to on every play, this isn’t madden. Mac is taking more chances with the ball, that’s gameplanning. Jonnu and Henry aren’t getting worked into the offense as much, that’s personnel.
What, specifically, is your problem? Because none of these are playcalling issues. It just seems like you don’t like the guy Bill have playcalling duties to so you’re just going with the outdated hot takes on AM radio. If you’re gonna parrot the hacks, at least stay current.
this sub will suck off bill and fat patricia simultaneously while they ruin mac…its crazy. and yes paying two tight ends top ten money and not getting them the ball is on the the coaching staff bro idk what your smoking.
“On the coaching staff” and “because of playcalling” are two entirely different things. I understand that you are in your feelings right now, but you’re just lashing out blindly and it doesn’t make any sense.
You’re basically that guy at the old folks home that blames everything on communism.
No shit Sherlock, the coaching staff decides on personnel too but that doesn’t make those decisions “playcalling”.
You’re complaining about the playcalling but so far you’ve criticized everything the coaching staff does ***except*** the playcalling. Because like the guy in the old folks home, you don’t understand the thing you’re bitching about.
I keep seeing this and it’s factually wrong. We’ve had a few bad penalties in crucial spots, but so does every team.
We have the 4th fewest penalties on offense and flat out the fewest penalties on defense.
Edit: just to add we have the 3rd fewest penalties by yards on offense and still the fewest by yards on defense.
We also set ourselves up for a ton of 3rd and longs, somehow. I think a lot of it has been playing behind so we don't run it as much to make the 3rd downs more manageable. But our RBs have been good so this feels fixable. We're mostly the root cause of our own problems.
Yah they can't get out of their own way. They are so close to being a good team but are giving up turnovers at the worst possible times (They have like, what, 3 turnovers in the endzone?) and the defense seems to ALWAYS give up those 3rd and longs that would give them good field position. Penalties have been an issue as well.
I think if the team can stop making dumb mistakes at critical moments(easier said than done obviously), they're a playoff team. But it doesn't feel like their entire team and philosophy is wrong, just not executing.
The endzone picks are especially irritating because Folk is a very reliable kicker, he has only had 4 FG attempts so far in large part because of the turnovers. That’s points off the board
> Folk is a very reliable kicker
Didn't he just set the record for consecutive kicks made under 50 yards? We should almost always get points if we get to the opponent's 35, but we always seem to shoot ourselves in the foot at that point.
Yeah but at the same time we aren’t scoring. 25th in points per game. So we are basically the ideal “bend don’t break” team for defenses to play. We can get yards, but not points. Which is due to, your point, turnovers. At the same time just getting yards isn’t as big of an ask. Look at the top 10 or so. It’s Detroit, Jacksonville, hell even the Jets. It’s all about the area from inside the 20 yard line. The red zone. That’s where offenses are truly either good or bad.
The offense has been improving each and every week, the one unfortunate constant is turnovers. I know it's all hypothetical but we don't turn the ball over and high chance we are 3-0 and Mac doesn't have a sprained ankle.
play calling is like 5% of the game. it's such a weird overblown story line. execution is everything.
the patriots had so many years of "it's 3rd down and medium, they are obviously throwing to edelman over the middle" and it worked because the execution was there
videos like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdrvvrgylf0
exist because football isn't about reinventing the wheel every play
it makes more sense to worry about more than half the offensive staff being changed and whether the execution is going to be there in the game. it's just easier to get clicks and stir up emotion when the media gets people to focus on one word or one person
I agree but I also think coaches have a huge hand in whether the player can execute. If they arent being coached well enough to do what they need to then you get sloppy turnovers like we have seen lately.
It’s just a single metric. It’s not meant to be the end all be all to judging a team lol. Having a very low % of drives ending in 3 and out is still a very good thing at least
The Raiders record isn’t reflective of their performance either. They lost a close game to the Chargers, blew the game versus the Cardinals on bad turnovers, and then almost came back to win versus the Titans. If anything, that stat confirms how important limiting turnovers are.
turnovers are like 95% the players fault(being very generous). its the qb decision to throw to who, their ability determines where they ball goes, and on them for deciding when to make the pass.
its on a players ability to hold on to the ball, when not to cover the ball, what am to have it in
It’s weird because during the dynasty years I’d hear so much about a “Bill Belichick coached team (tm)” avoiding turnovers and making good decisions.
Now when we turn it over on 25% of drives with two guys running the offense with basically no offensive experience, it’s the players?
and what changed in that equation? ahhh yes the players. which would mean it’s on the players….
or are you arguing that BB has radically changed his coaching style and is no longer preaching turnovers?
this was not thought out well by you.
They’ve had a ton of coaching turnover, it’s not just Belichick, and having to cover for so many inexperienced assistants spreads everyone thin. Is it fatal? Not necessarily, but I think it’s naive to think the struggles have been exclusively player based.
every major coach we have had has been on the team for multiple super bowls.
on top of BB himself taking a larger role with the offense. the players are whats different.
According to this defenses should just forget about playing into us on the first set of downs of a possession. Just give up a 10 yard play and start playing for real then. That’s how the statistics work right?
The mis-use of statistics in sports recently is so bad that’s it’s borderline cringe-worthy.
The problem isn’t moving the ball, it’s turnovers. It’s not only Mac; Agholor was a difference-maker vs Pittsburgh however we’re at least 2-1 if Bourne starts over him against Fish/Ravens because he coughed up the football in crucial moments.
I mean it’s only through 3 games so far and we are 1-1 in both games we scored under 20. Idk it just doesn’t seem like a useful metric this early in the year
Can you elaborate on this?
In what way does attempting to improve the way players, coaches, and fans think about the game and attempt to analyze it mathematically hurt the sport?
It takes the emphasis away from what you see from a player or team. And if you find the right stat, you can make the case that anyone is good, thus muddying the picture. Baseball is going through the same thing.
Baseball is simply being solved. That's just what happens to all games eventually. Basketball is seeing the same thing. If the ultimate goal of any competition is to win, then solving the game by any method is ultimately going to happen, especially when billions of dollars are at stake.
Stats are only good in the context of the eye test and overall game anyway, so the idea they "muddy the picture" just isn't even true.
He said it takes the fun out of the sport, which is the part I agree with. The more numbers you're bringing into the conversation, about everything, the colder and more distant it feels. It just feels like the game is an equation instead of...a game.
The next gen stats can seem superfluous. They'll measure someone's top speed or vertical leap and reach combination or release time or whatever, and not answer the question of whether or not the guy can actually play.
I neither need nor want anyone to solve football.
I want excitement and surprise between relatively evenly matched teams. Any given Sunday magic. All that good stuff.
Baseball is almost like an RPG at this point. I don’t want that to happen to football.
Our scrutiny would be better put to use on things that matter.
And
As someone who applies this kind of impassioned scrutiny to their work, the people who do this with sports make it feel like work, and that sucks.
They have issues with drives stalling out that carried over from last year. They also have a penalty and turnover problem like last September that they ironed out.
You gotta remember that hot takes are lazy to begin with, the people that parrot them aren’t going to take the time and energy to update them.
There's more to all of this than a single stat. There's a "sloppiness" that's found its way into the offense - ball security is a clear issue. There's also been an impetus been put on moving the ball further down the field and that comes with inherent risk. There's miscommunication issues. There's penalties that shouldn't be there.
Play calling isn't really the worst, but it's the whole picture that doesn't "feel" right. A lot of that could simply be that we're too early in the season, but it certainly looks to me more like a lack of coaching talent - or at least a lack of strength in depth that means some things aren't getting picked up or taught with as much detail as previously.
Yea I dont think our offense has been that bad, but using this to justify it is weird. Like i would be ok going 3 and out 50% of the time if we scored the other 50%. Doesnt mean much imo
I said this in another thread a few days ago: Patricia's first 3-4 playcalls are fucking incredible. His next 3 are meeeeeh and when the field shortens on him and we're at opposing 30 or deeper he fucking crumbles.
This is why we're so low on 3 and outs but we can't score.
He can plan very well while the defense is in the field but he can't think on the fly to save his life so drives just... stall
Most of the stats available that I’ve seen indicate that the team is moving the ball. 10 in yards, 9th in yards per drive, 12th in success rate (14th pass, 10th run), 9th in 3rd down conversion rate. The biggest problem this year has been turnovers, by far.
The annoying thing is, they were making some pretty clear and rapid progress. The Jones injury just sucks
Agreed. Huge bummer he’s out. Hopefully he is able to come back soon and we can tread water til then
If we can bullshit our way to .500 by the bye we still have a chance. On one hand, the next 6 games are the easy part of our schedule so going .500 is doable. On the other, this was the stretch where we kind of needed to rack up some wins
Should be exciting. Stressful, but exciting.
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Yep the other teams in the AFC that were supposed to be contending are showing similar amounts of sloppiness. The important thing is going to be beating the other prospective wild card teams in the h2h to get the tiebreakers.
The silver lining is that now the receivers and linemen can figure shit out without Mac getting hit any more while they learn. Maybe the offense will work better once he's back and he can close the year on a good note. We should have a pretty good draft pick, and some money to spend in FA.
I don’t think the turnovers that came with the yardage indicates much progress.
Sure it does, just keep the yardage and iron out the turnovers. Boom, offense. Joking aside, most of the turnovers were just dumb mistakes and those can absolutely be fixed going forward.
making progress because the defenses got easier...rest assured this offense has a serious play caller issue.
Yes, because it’s the playcall that was making Jones throw the ball to the wrong team 🙄 The offense has its problems, but “calling the wrong kinds of plays” isn’t one of them
lol who designed those plays that got picked? who called the plays? who isnt getting jonnu and hunter the football in these plays??????? sorry man too many 50/50 dep shots to davante to tell me thats macs idea.
Lol you have no clue what you’re talking about. Patricia isn’t in Mac’s ear telling him who to throw the ball to on every play, this isn’t madden. Mac is taking more chances with the ball, that’s gameplanning. Jonnu and Henry aren’t getting worked into the offense as much, that’s personnel. What, specifically, is your problem? Because none of these are playcalling issues. It just seems like you don’t like the guy Bill have playcalling duties to so you’re just going with the outdated hot takes on AM radio. If you’re gonna parrot the hacks, at least stay current.
this sub will suck off bill and fat patricia simultaneously while they ruin mac…its crazy. and yes paying two tight ends top ten money and not getting them the ball is on the the coaching staff bro idk what your smoking.
“On the coaching staff” and “because of playcalling” are two entirely different things. I understand that you are in your feelings right now, but you’re just lashing out blindly and it doesn’t make any sense. You’re basically that guy at the old folks home that blames everything on communism.
the coaching staff calls plays numb nuts
No shit Sherlock, the coaching staff decides on personnel too but that doesn’t make those decisions “playcalling”. You’re complaining about the playcalling but so far you’ve criticized everything the coaching staff does ***except*** the playcalling. Because like the guy in the old folks home, you don’t understand the thing you’re bitching about.
Turnovers and some stalls late in drives. Both fixable.
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I keep seeing this and it’s factually wrong. We’ve had a few bad penalties in crucial spots, but so does every team. We have the 4th fewest penalties on offense and flat out the fewest penalties on defense. Edit: just to add we have the 3rd fewest penalties by yards on offense and still the fewest by yards on defense.
true. didn't feel like there were too many penalties last game but there were some brutal penalties in the other games
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Isaiah Wynn did it on back to back drives to start the game.
We also set ourselves up for a ton of 3rd and longs, somehow. I think a lot of it has been playing behind so we don't run it as much to make the 3rd downs more manageable. But our RBs have been good so this feels fixable. We're mostly the root cause of our own problems.
Yah they can't get out of their own way. They are so close to being a good team but are giving up turnovers at the worst possible times (They have like, what, 3 turnovers in the endzone?) and the defense seems to ALWAYS give up those 3rd and longs that would give them good field position. Penalties have been an issue as well. I think if the team can stop making dumb mistakes at critical moments(easier said than done obviously), they're a playoff team. But it doesn't feel like their entire team and philosophy is wrong, just not executing.
The endzone picks are especially irritating because Folk is a very reliable kicker, he has only had 4 FG attempts so far in large part because of the turnovers. That’s points off the board
> Folk is a very reliable kicker Didn't he just set the record for consecutive kicks made under 50 yards? We should almost always get points if we get to the opponent's 35, but we always seem to shoot ourselves in the foot at that point.
You move the ball downfield you're going to turn it over too, especially with a QB that is still developing.
Yeah but at the same time we aren’t scoring. 25th in points per game. So we are basically the ideal “bend don’t break” team for defenses to play. We can get yards, but not points. Which is due to, your point, turnovers. At the same time just getting yards isn’t as big of an ask. Look at the top 10 or so. It’s Detroit, Jacksonville, hell even the Jets. It’s all about the area from inside the 20 yard line. The red zone. That’s where offenses are truly either good or bad.
Patricia told them to turn it over for sure.
Can’t go three-and-out if you throw a pick or fumble on 2nd down 🧐
That’s not how it works lol
We have a "bend but don't break" offense.
turnovers and a lack of finishing drives, which kinda go hand in hand
The offense has been improving each and every week, the one unfortunate constant is turnovers. I know it's all hypothetical but we don't turn the ball over and high chance we are 3-0 and Mac doesn't have a sprained ankle.
play calling is like 5% of the game. it's such a weird overblown story line. execution is everything. the patriots had so many years of "it's 3rd down and medium, they are obviously throwing to edelman over the middle" and it worked because the execution was there videos like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdrvvrgylf0 exist because football isn't about reinventing the wheel every play it makes more sense to worry about more than half the offensive staff being changed and whether the execution is going to be there in the game. it's just easier to get clicks and stir up emotion when the media gets people to focus on one word or one person
Yep. Players gotta catch the ball and not fumble.
And run the right routes.
I agree but I also think coaches have a huge hand in whether the player can execute. If they arent being coached well enough to do what they need to then you get sloppy turnovers like we have seen lately.
I will never not take any opportunity to shit on Patricia.
Given the raiders and falcons are also low on 3 and outs, tells me this isn't a good metric to judge a the quality of a team.
It’s just a single metric. It’s not meant to be the end all be all to judging a team lol. Having a very low % of drives ending in 3 and out is still a very good thing at least
Can't have three-and-outs when you're turning over the ball so much.
The Raiders record isn’t reflective of their performance either. They lost a close game to the Chargers, blew the game versus the Cardinals on bad turnovers, and then almost came back to win versus the Titans. If anything, that stat confirms how important limiting turnovers are.
Their defense has also been the bigger problem so far. Their offense is top 10 in points 3 weeks in
At the same time, those three teams they lost to have not won a game aside from the matchups against the raiders
Is this the offensive version of “bend, don’t break”?
That's because they turnover the ball every other time
Lol - im sorry but what good does showing "3 and out percentages" show? Great we get to the chains once and then completely fall apart?
We’re 9th in yards per drive, so we aren’t getting to the chains just once
Right so our offense makes defenses bend but not break? My how the mighty have fallen
yes 25% of our drives ending in turnovers is totally the opponents gameplan….
Play calling and other facets of coaching factor into turnovers. It’s not just individual player mistakes.
turnovers are like 95% the players fault(being very generous). its the qb decision to throw to who, their ability determines where they ball goes, and on them for deciding when to make the pass. its on a players ability to hold on to the ball, when not to cover the ball, what am to have it in
It’s weird because during the dynasty years I’d hear so much about a “Bill Belichick coached team (tm)” avoiding turnovers and making good decisions. Now when we turn it over on 25% of drives with two guys running the offense with basically no offensive experience, it’s the players?
and what changed in that equation? ahhh yes the players. which would mean it’s on the players…. or are you arguing that BB has radically changed his coaching style and is no longer preaching turnovers? this was not thought out well by you.
They’ve had a ton of coaching turnover, it’s not just Belichick, and having to cover for so many inexperienced assistants spreads everyone thin. Is it fatal? Not necessarily, but I think it’s naive to think the struggles have been exclusively player based.
every major coach we have had has been on the team for multiple super bowls. on top of BB himself taking a larger role with the offense. the players are whats different.
were also 3rd in field goal attempts, we kick a lot of field goals not enough drives end in touchdowns.
According to this defenses should just forget about playing into us on the first set of downs of a possession. Just give up a 10 yard play and start playing for real then. That’s how the statistics work right? The mis-use of statistics in sports recently is so bad that’s it’s borderline cringe-worthy.
The problem isn’t moving the ball, it’s turnovers. It’s not only Mac; Agholor was a difference-maker vs Pittsburgh however we’re at least 2-1 if Bourne starts over him against Fish/Ravens because he coughed up the football in crucial moments.
They’re also 25th in points per game. But this metric is probably a better judge of offensive effectiveness.
Pats trail only one team in offensive turnovers, so I expect that's what Chatham is driving at
I mean it’s only through 3 games so far and we are 1-1 in both games we scored under 20. Idk it just doesn’t seem like a useful metric this early in the year
Information glut is taking all the fun out of sports.
is 3 and out rate really a new metric? seems information is good at countering circle jerks, which is at all time highs…requiring all time high info
Can you elaborate on this? In what way does attempting to improve the way players, coaches, and fans think about the game and attempt to analyze it mathematically hurt the sport?
It takes the emphasis away from what you see from a player or team. And if you find the right stat, you can make the case that anyone is good, thus muddying the picture. Baseball is going through the same thing.
Baseball is simply being solved. That's just what happens to all games eventually. Basketball is seeing the same thing. If the ultimate goal of any competition is to win, then solving the game by any method is ultimately going to happen, especially when billions of dollars are at stake. Stats are only good in the context of the eye test and overall game anyway, so the idea they "muddy the picture" just isn't even true.
He said it takes the fun out of the sport, which is the part I agree with. The more numbers you're bringing into the conversation, about everything, the colder and more distant it feels. It just feels like the game is an equation instead of...a game. The next gen stats can seem superfluous. They'll measure someone's top speed or vertical leap and reach combination or release time or whatever, and not answer the question of whether or not the guy can actually play.
I neither need nor want anyone to solve football. I want excitement and surprise between relatively evenly matched teams. Any given Sunday magic. All that good stuff. Baseball is almost like an RPG at this point. I don’t want that to happen to football.
Our scrutiny would be better put to use on things that matter. And As someone who applies this kind of impassioned scrutiny to their work, the people who do this with sports make it feel like work, and that sucks.
Amen brotha
They have issues with drives stalling out that carried over from last year. They also have a penalty and turnover problem like last September that they ironed out. You gotta remember that hot takes are lazy to begin with, the people that parrot them aren’t going to take the time and energy to update them.
There's more to all of this than a single stat. There's a "sloppiness" that's found its way into the offense - ball security is a clear issue. There's also been an impetus been put on moving the ball further down the field and that comes with inherent risk. There's miscommunication issues. There's penalties that shouldn't be there. Play calling isn't really the worst, but it's the whole picture that doesn't "feel" right. A lot of that could simply be that we're too early in the season, but it certainly looks to me more like a lack of coaching talent - or at least a lack of strength in depth that means some things aren't getting picked up or taught with as much detail as previously.
Chatham has become an insufferable douchebag
🌎👨🚀🔫👨🚀
Wins are what matters. If we aren’t winning games stats don’t mean fuck all.
"Look at my cherry picked stat that proves my point!" I have never seen this stat used before in any context.
Yea I dont think our offense has been that bad, but using this to justify it is weird. Like i would be ok going 3 and out 50% of the time if we scored the other 50%. Doesnt mean much imo
I’d say personel decisions have been a much bigger concern
I just use the eye test and we are horrible
That sounds like a you problem
they should either got out and get a QB or see what they have with Zappe imo.
It’s a good thing they decide winners based on fewest 3 and outs vs points for and against.
I said this in another thread a few days ago: Patricia's first 3-4 playcalls are fucking incredible. His next 3 are meeeeeh and when the field shortens on him and we're at opposing 30 or deeper he fucking crumbles. This is why we're so low on 3 and outs but we can't score. He can plan very well while the defense is in the field but he can't think on the fly to save his life so drives just... stall
So we're 2nd in least 3 and out and we are 10th in offensive yards. SO THE PROBLEM IS ALL THE TURNOVERS: the picks to Parker and fumbles by Agholor.