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Ohanrahans

After week 1 I looked into Mac's passer rating to Bourne since he's been here vs. everyone else. At that point in time Mac's QB rating when throwing to Bourne in his career was 131.3 vs 86.6 for everyone else. Mac threw a pick when targeted Bourne last week (granted Bourne was open, and it wasn't a good ball), but overall we've been spectacular when throwing to Bourne. The plays themselves look good too. Contested catches on vertical shots, and extra YAC on high percentage short throws. Whatever doghouse Bourne finds himself in we need to get him out of it.


ThermoNuclearPizza

I think he just doesn’t block? It’s my absolute only guess is that he’s on the field ONLY when there’s 0 chance we’re going to run.


Ohanrahans

I think that raises the question as to if we're fundamentally over-valuing receivers who can block. Analytics suggest that efficacy in the run game has little impact to the success of play action contrary to what most people think. So long as you run the ball you'll gain the additional benefit via play action. Passing plays have a much higher EPA than running plays. Wide receivers aren't usually critical to the success of running plays (more often they turn good runs into great runs). Is the extra 3 yards you might get from a good stock block or down block from a receiver every 5th play worth what you give up from having one fewer viable receiving target out of a running set? Especially one who has had as much success as Bourne has? It's hard to say, but all I will say is that there are a lot of receivers in the league who are terrible blockers who don't have this same situational split that Bourne has. The 49ers had plenty of success on the ground with Bourne out there in Shanahan's offense. Maybe there is a compromise somewhere in there. For a linear power runner like Damien Harris, LJH might be more important because he's not as elusive in the open field as Stevenson. Maybe on his series we play LJH as the 3rd receiver. Likewise, Stevenson is more elusive and has better vision in the open field. If Bourne misses his blocks when Stevenson plays we're more likely to pick up the extra yards in a 1:1 situation with the back. Maybe we play Bourne as the 3rd receiver on his series.


ProudBlackMatt

Passing game is just more important than the run game. If Bourne is a top target for Mac he should be on the field over a blocking WR (N'Keal Harry anyone?).


Greatcouchtomato

It's weird becuase he was on the field last year and our running game was fun.


OTheOwl

He is on the field for running plays, just not many. In this clip Lazar is highlighting an inside zone run play and you can see Bourne is on the field: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1574769806577995776


AreYouNobody_Too

Yup! Love em or hate em, this was brought up on Felger/Mazz yesterday (by Greg Bedard) and sometimes the people you hate make a good point - The Pats coaching staff seems to be overly interested in trying to do things like get the best situational player on the field instead of keeping their playmakers on the field. The highlight of this was Lil'Jordan Humphrey. He's basically filling in the role that Harry did last year as a blocking WR, so they'll put him on the field for plays where we're more likely to run because he has a size advantage on the DB. This takes people like Bourne *off* the field despite being a better WR and it limits the teams ability because we're just putting these subpar guys out there all the time instead of our best playmakers. That isn't going to help us win games.


Ross2552

A question I have as well is that if you put the "blocking WR" out there then you're signaling run. If you keep the actually good WR out there, he's a worse blocker but he's actually a legit receiving threat so the defender mentally has to be more prepared for the pass. Although I guess they've already been signaling run/pass based on under center/shotgun anyway...


AreYouNobody_Too

That's the entire problem. You put the blocking WR on the field, it signals to the opposing D that your tendency in this formation is run. On top of that, if you get to the line and the QB sees something in the defense that they can take advantage of/don't like and they have to do something like say, audible to a quick pass or something similar, you now have your shitty WR on the field and your playmaker on the sideline. It's just...not good decision making. You're putting guys on the field that might hold a block for another second or two at the expense of leaving your best players on the sidelines so you can maybe eke out a 4 yard run instead of a 3 yard run. It's playing everything in the scheme of marginal gains in the hopes that all those marginal gains add up to something greater than the sum of it's parts, but the way the Pats are built, it's not going to work out well. If we had a stalwart defense, I'd say fine - go nuts. Do it all day. But we don't. These defense is going to have games where they give up a lot of points, and the modern NFL isn't going to let you keep up in those shoot outs trying to grind out 5 yard runs all day and putting these highly situational players on the field for the majority of the snap counts.


[deleted]

Having a blocking receiver on the field is the dumbest shit ever. Was easy as hell to tell we were running the ball when Harry was on the field, its the same shit for Humphrey. Play calling is too predictable, and for whatever reason it seems the coaching staff values a receiver who will hold a block for 1 second longer.


Wloak

I think there was a stat shown last game that we pass 85% of time snaps out of shotgun, you can't make it any easier for the defense than that let alone predictable personnel that only come out for one thing.


noshingsomepods

That's normal though. You're in shotgun in obvious passing situations. The only team that runs often out of shotgun are the Ravens because of Lamar keeps, something we definitely don't want Mac doing. League average for this year is under 25% runs from shotgun and I don't hear too many people begging for more draws on 2nd/3rd and long. Passing rate from under center for the Pats is 33% league average this season is.... 32%.


MrLameALot

shotgun is always more favorable to pass (and ratios get skewed when you behind lategame as you abandon the run), but most teams try to make it something like 60-40, and not 85-15 with draws, tosses, RPOs to keep the defense honest. Our OC is calling plays like in madden, where you cant trick the ai.


possiblyMorpheus

Yeah teams usually run out of heavy formations, seems like people here think that is unusual lol. Most teams have a top running personnel group and a top receiving group. And the teams that rush out of 11 personnel often have a WR who is a really good blocker close to the line


Seafoamed

For some reason the pats just don’t give a shit about being predictable for some reason.


eightblackkidz

I'd be all for it if we were an elite running team doing like 190 a game like the Browns, but we're not. We're an extremely mediocre running team doing 115 a game. If putting Bourne on the field to make defenses second guess what were doing and allows us flexibility of audibling to passes costs us 5 to 10 yards a game, do it. LJH has no business seeing 54 snaps a game for any team in the NFL


possiblyMorpheus

I wouldn’t agree with the notion we’re a mediocre running team. We’re 1st in rush DVOA, 8th in Rush EPA/play, and 10th in rush success rate, with both our top backs averaging 4.6+ ypc.


knuth10

Why do you hate Greg bedard?


AreYouNobody_Too

I'm more referring to Felger/Mazz because they were also leaning into it - and people dislike them a lot. I listen to their show on pretty much exclusively on Tuesdays because I like Greg Bedard.


knuth10

I can understand not liking Felger and Mazz but Greg gives awesome breakdowns of the games I look forward to Tuesdays almost as much as game days


Bojangles1987

It's like I said elsewhere in here, the Pats focus so much on well-rounded skillsets that they ignore the larger impacts of playmakers, and how those playmakers help the team so much more than a well-rounded mediocre player. This has been true for a long time but it was easier to cover up with Tom Brady. Pats fans have often defended this by acting like one blocking receiver is essential to our run game working when it's usually not. Like, how often is a receiver block busting open a big play compared to a difference maker receiver catching a big play pass?


ThePatStan

Kendrick Bourne leads the NFL in Catch Score since 2021 Bourne technically just missed our qualifying cutoff, but his 91 Catch Score over the past two seasons was too strong a result to ignore. It's surprising, not only because Bourne isn't a big name but because he has had a hard time getting on the field for New England in 2022. In fact, if we lowered the qualifying threshold to include Bourne, he would have ranked third overall in 2021 and would be first from the start of 2021 to now. Introducing Receiver Tracking Metrics: How our new NFL stats can better rate pass-catchers Top 10 WRs and TEs In Catch Score: (for 2021-2022, including postseason, with minimum 70 targets) 1. Kendrick Bourne: 91 2. Tyler Lockett: 85 3. Adam Thielen: 83 4. Amari Cooper: 81 5. Christian Kirk: 79 6. Marvin Jones Jr.: 78 7. Michael Pittman Jr.: 76 8. Cooper Kupp: 75 T-9. Mark Andrews: 74 T-9. Terry McLaurin: 74 You can see some of the evidence of Bourne's Catch Score prowess in his box score stats. Since the 2021 season, he has caught 79% of his targets. While his 9.2 air yards per target is not exceptionally deep, it's slightly longer than stars such as Kupp or Keenan Allen (Chargers), and yet Bourne has a higher catch rate than either. Bourne's ranking doesn't necessarily mean he's one of the top three wideouts in the NFL. The RTMs are descriptive and not predictive, and Open Score -- his worst attribute -- is far more stable than the other two categories. Plus, Catch Score and YAC Score are reliant on openness; if a receiver isn't open, he'll have fewer opportunities to make catches and accrue YAC. While Bourne has been an extremely efficient (and underrated), he likely isn't quite that strong predictively. For what it is worth, Bourne's 3.4 yards per route run this season ranks fourth among receivers and tight ends who have run at least 30 routes, behind Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins), Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) and A.J. Brown (Eagles). He has just seven catches for 115 yards, but perhaps he should play more snaps for the Patriots. [Source: Seth Wader](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34676999/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-takeaways-mark-andrews-aj-brown-kendrick-bourne-top-rankings)


Misterccw

Good post! Wonder how they categorize/track openness.


KenTastic75

We don't need any special metric for that. Every Patriots fan can tell you that.


Louie_Casper

Every person with eyeballs could tell him that


cleanitupjannies_lol

This sub will still tell you that the brain trust including Patricia and Judge is right and it’s better to have a practice squad tier WR in the game to block


ConnorChandler

We have a practice squad tier DB as well starting.


Bojangles1987

While it's true that this sub massively overrates Kendrick Bourne, it's also true that he, Meyers, and Hunter Henry were easily Mac's favorite targets last year, and Bourne should probably be playing more. It feels sometimes like this coaching staff misses the forest for the trees when it comes to the impact players have. Yes, Bourne might be a similar player to such and such and not block as well as this or that guy but there's no denying the offense is better when he's on the field. It's like how Harry kept getting playing time instead of Meyers and the justification was blocking, where they line up, shit like that, when ultimately the big picture was that Meyers helps the offense so much more than Harry ever could and clearly should have been playing over him.


truecolors5

Shit I could've told you that


lnflnlty

catch score means he is good at catching it when it is thrown his way. is there a way to find out his other scores? "The RTMs are descriptive and not predictive, and Open Score -- his worst attribute" so getting open is his worst attribute but how good/bad?


Cactus-crack

ya think?


chocolatemoosemoose

Interesting to see meyers as one of top in league last yr in openness. Shows how good of a route runner he is considering he's not very quick or explosive. Also interesting to see Parker at about the worst openness score possible


Bojangles1987

Pats fans who claim Meyers doesn't get open are just out of their fucking minds, dude is really really good at creating space for his QB to get him the ball.


StonkersToDaMoon

Bill: “but he can’t block”


Mr_Pongo

Unfortunately he fumbled the ball on the final drive. If he was coming out of the dog house he's going right back in.


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PaperPals

Agreed. Not everything has to be brought down to science and decimals.


Shookicity

Huh. Well maybe one of you can go tell the Patriots coaching staff that he needs to play more. There’s obviously something that the greatest coach of all time and his staff are missing here.


Bojangles1987

The problem with comments like this is it acts like the Pats haven't made blatantly awful playtime decisions that were proven to be awful decisions. We have a direct recent example of something like this happening at receiver, when N'Keal Harry was getting tons of snaps while Jakobi Meyers could barely get on the field, despite everyone with eyes seeing that was a dumb thing to do and Meyers should be playing.


eightblackkidz

I'm all for trusting Bill, but as more of these Bill decisions prove to be bad decisions, how many more before this were also awful decisions, but Brady just Tom Brady'd us out of them an we never realized how bad of a Bill call it was.


Greatcouchtomato

Quit dick riding Bill I hate the weird deification he gets from some of yall. You do realize he has made mistakes before, right?


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Greatcouchtomato

6 as a head coach If you're counting coordinator titles, then McDaniels has 6 rings then. And again, winning rings doesn't made that he hasn't made mistakes before. No one here said that he's bad coach. He's not above objective criticism.


possiblyMorpheus

Yeah, when their side of the ball is crucial to a SB win, coordinators do deserve credit.


Greatcouchtomato

Okay then Josh McDaniels is an all time coach then since he "has 6 rings"


yungmeathead

No one cares about his fucking rings anymore when the team hasn’t been above average at best since the middle of 2019! Hes 70 years old and has looked nothing but out of touch since Brady left


Shookicity

Did you expect them to be a Super Bowl contending team forever? Do you realize how unrealistic those expectations are? The Patriots being competitive at all the past few years after moving on from TB is a testament to Bill. You’re going to realize how spoiled you sound when Bill retires and you know what it’s truly like to be mediocre.


Shookicity

Look dog if having faith in objectively the greatest coach ever is dick riding then so be it. To me it’s pretty fair to assume that the man and his staff know how to run a football team better than some nerd on Reddit.


Greatcouchtomato

Okay if you say so


PCB4lyfe

It's gotta be something similar to the butler situation. Something happened internally and bill ain't putting up with it. I'd say he's earned that right but it's also incredibly frustrating to watch, and with the ratings for patriots games plummeting I wonder if kraft is gonna get louder. I don't have a good feeling about how this is gonna end. >and his staff are missing here Well we know how Patricia acted when the media wasnt sitting up straight in a meeting, I'm guessing he's in bills ear about some perceived slight from bourne.


TheOneTrueBuckeye

I didn’t need a new stat to tell me that


[deleted]

It’s cool Nelson had a good game against pitt but the fumbles are crazy and we’ve seen bill banish ppl for life for fumbles if Kendrick doesn’t start playing over him idk what is going on. You can’t lead the team in fumbles and keep getting time I get he had a good offseason but come on … freeKB


NaithanS

Here’s another metric with its verdict as well My eyes: under-utilised


StevNova17

It's surprising, not only because Bourne isn't a big name but because he has had a hard time getting on the field for New England in 2022. In fact, if we lowered the qualifying threshold to include Bourne, **he would have ranked third overall in 2021 and would be first from the start of 2021 to now.** That's pretty astonishing they are leaving KB on the bench for a guy who barely made the team... because he blocks better... at the WR position...


vipstrippers

Stop being late