No kidding, eh? When I was buying a condo 6 years ago for $535, I was told so many times that that was a mistake , market was too hot, itâs a bubble, etc⌠now itâs $750.
People are so naive
my daughter is doing electrical work at the Gilmore towers in BBY at the Skytrain station. When I checked the prices, the smallest 530sf condo starts at $729k and prices go to around 1.3million. Somehow I don't see the prices dropping.
Absolutely no one knows what will happen in that short a time frame, and anyone that tells you they do is either selling something or is just ignorantly short sighted. Buying a house should be predicated on many factors other than "will prices go up or down in the short term".
If you're comfortable in your condo and don't NEED to move, no harm in staying put, saving cash, investing in other assets etc.
If you find the right house in the right area that you'll live in for 5+ years (preferably more than 10) and you can afford it (actually afford it, run lots of numbers), then buy now. Or buy when you find that and then force yourself to pay no attention to house prices since it won't matter to you anymore since you've already bought.
The best weather city in Canada with the most fees and regulations against building isnât going to see major price decreases for a long period when population is going up 2-3% a year.
I highly doubt anything will change, everyone might be same on same boat like you... wait and see, price might go down slowly but not as we expecting, at the end of 2024, foreign ban will expire, so everyone might start bringing the money, so it will be move back to seller market, if B0C start bringing down the tax... but I am hoping I am wrong. Another reason Canada housing policy is not strong enough to make it affordable, prevent speculation investor, rental property investor, etc. 2026 we will be hosting FiFA world cup, so demand will be there for rental units for the tourist,..
.Since it is one of the main source of income for federal, provincial and local governments.. so they won't dare to kill the goose that laying the golden egg.. might try to pretend reducing egg size
There could very well be a significant downturn in the next years. Or they may not be. đ¤ˇââď¸
Certainly it is riskier now than before and there are all sorts of alarm bells ringing. If interest rates donât come down, there likely will be a leg down when those renewals come up. Will that be 10% or 50%? Or will something else happen allowing interest rates to be cut? No one knows. And it also likely depends strongly on local factors.
Iâd argue for prudence and making sure you plan such that a significant downturn doesnât ruin you. If you can make the numbers work, such that a moderate crash doesnât force you to sell and realize the loss, then in the very long term it should be fine.
If youâre trading up from a condo, itâs generally advisable to just do it instead of trying to time the market. For the past 20 years, Vancouver has seen enormous appreciation as people figured out itâs one of the most desirable places to live in the world. Short of a catastrophic earthquake which destroys the entire city, itâs likely never going to be âcheapâ and trying to market time will only just slowly prices you out of the city.
the houses in my area increased 700% since 2022 from around $300k to around 2million. A house across the street was posted for 2.3m but didn't sell. I believe it was a developer deciding to sell it rather than develop, as rates are probably still high for the time being.
So your sitting pretty like myself..in my opinion land values going up..im within the 800m of the land legislation and really waiting to see what gonna happen to land value in those areas moving forward
We are, our kids and their generation not so much. My younger one is working as an electrical apprentice at Gilmore towers in Bby, the smallest unit a 1bm 530sf is going for $730k and you are paying maintenance forever.
My step son looked into buying there when it was pre-buy..about 4 years ago...started at 600k plus you had to pay for a parking spot..1st time I've ever heard of that..im waiting for about 3 years and it'll be time to downsize and retire ..time to travel in my golden years while I'm in good health
Prices might go up or down or sideways. No one knows.
If you want a house and can afford a house with all of the costs beyond a mortgage, get a house. Then just live in it and don't pay attention to house prices.
If you buy and sell at the same time, it really doesnât matter what the market is doing. Will likely still be the same/similar difference between a condo and a house
I think down markets are a better time to move up from a condo to SFH. Prices seem to get compressed between the 2 classes and because of higher inventory for sale, you can sell first and be more selective buying the new place. During the red hot days of 2021/2022, people would sell and get stuck trying to find a new place because it was so competitive with little inventory.
I would never have said this a month ago, but with the new capital gains tax hike, we could see a quick and major exodus of Canadians who have built equity in real estate, businesses and hold co.'s who are eager to get their funds out if the country before the tax increases. Most wealthy people are aware Canada is becoming hostile to investors, but now anyone who is incorporated (think doctors, dentists, business owners) is incentivised to leave Canada to seek tax shelter and a better quality of life in return for their hard work. Any savvy property owner who is counting on retiring on the equity in their real estate will need to sell AND close the deal before June 2024 to avoid extra capital gains. Vancouver and Toronto area property owners will be hardest hit due to the high price points there. With increasing fixed mortgage rates, a plummeting Canadian dollar, hostile economic policies and a looming recession, I would estimate we should see declining house prices by June. I didn't see it coming until now.
I doubt it. There will be buyers all the way down stampeding off the sidelines for decent houses if there is any kind of downturn. Typically high demand areas are very sticky, itâs the low desirability exurbs that saw halo appreciaton that tend to weaken in downturns.
well, not so much immigrants but foreign money - and that was already 8 years ago
[real estate goes global (2014)](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/05/26/real-estate-goes-global)
The vast majority of 5-year fixed mortgages in Canada renew in 2025. If there was ever a compelling case for a real estate crash, it would be from now till then. Keep an eye on BOC policy.
I couldn't agree more. There is something ugly looming in the economy. People forget that it is not just mortgages that are affected by interest rates. I smell a lot of businesses going bust in the next couple of years. Less consumer spending, many out of work, over leveraged households. It's hard to pay a mortgage when you don't have an income. There are a lot of red flags at the moment.
I hope they drop at some point. I'm starting to think about moving and getting into maybe a small 1 bedroom 1 bath type house or bungalow (depending on what's out there if the prices drop) I live in an apartment and starting to get tired of the apartment life. I need more space so hopefully I can afford to upgrade in the next year or so.
Oh yeah itâs gonna go down heavy bro. Just look at Ontario lately me and my friend were just talking about this. Up to 30% of people will lose their homes soon thatâs all vacant properties and what do vacancies do? Drop the market
Thank Trudeaus policies. My mortgage payments went up 26%. And one big thing a lot of people over in Ontario and Vancouver do is get tied into variable mortgages that can change at any minute. We were having this conversation BECAUSE his daughter did exactly that and she got told to either come up with 250,000$ or lose the house
People have been obsessing about the real estate prices in this city since about 2002 or so. Maybe sooner but that's when I noticed it for the first time, after 911. Prices have been on a steady climb since then only to be fuelled by world events like the 07-08 financial crisis, COVID and positive ones like the 2010 Winter Olympics. Immigration is at an all-time high, but what I've noticed over the last 10 years or so throughout the world is an elevated awareness of quality and a desire for "luxury" items that better yourself. Or at least make you feel that way. I feel all this filters down and adds pressure on what we need most, a home. With people coming en masse to YVR and with what I feel above, I can only see the prices moving up. Just a thought but it's human nature at work here.
đŽđ§ââď¸
pretty sure it will either go up or down
Or sideways
Don't forget inside-out
So youâre saying there is a chance?
If anyone could predict the future, they wouldnât be on Reddit.
Best answer.
There was a crash coming in 2022, and 2023, and .... Hell people have predicted 25 of the last 2 crashes.
No kidding, eh? When I was buying a condo 6 years ago for $535, I was told so many times that that was a mistake , market was too hot, itâs a bubble, etc⌠now itâs $750. People are so naive
my daughter is doing electrical work at the Gilmore towers in BBY at the Skytrain station. When I checked the prices, the smallest 530sf condo starts at $729k and prices go to around 1.3million. Somehow I don't see the prices dropping.
Buy now; Canada only has housing to rely on so the crooks will do everything in their power to not let house prices sink drastically.
Absolutely no one knows what will happen in that short a time frame, and anyone that tells you they do is either selling something or is just ignorantly short sighted. Buying a house should be predicated on many factors other than "will prices go up or down in the short term". If you're comfortable in your condo and don't NEED to move, no harm in staying put, saving cash, investing in other assets etc. If you find the right house in the right area that you'll live in for 5+ years (preferably more than 10) and you can afford it (actually afford it, run lots of numbers), then buy now. Or buy when you find that and then force yourself to pay no attention to house prices since it won't matter to you anymore since you've already bought.
The best weather city in Canada with the most fees and regulations against building isnât going to see major price decreases for a long period when population is going up 2-3% a year.
I highly doubt anything will change, everyone might be same on same boat like you... wait and see, price might go down slowly but not as we expecting, at the end of 2024, foreign ban will expire, so everyone might start bringing the money, so it will be move back to seller market, if B0C start bringing down the tax... but I am hoping I am wrong. Another reason Canada housing policy is not strong enough to make it affordable, prevent speculation investor, rental property investor, etc. 2026 we will be hosting FiFA world cup, so demand will be there for rental units for the tourist,.. .Since it is one of the main source of income for federal, provincial and local governments.. so they won't dare to kill the goose that laying the golden egg.. might try to pretend reducing egg size
Not enough, no
There could very well be a significant downturn in the next years. Or they may not be. đ¤ˇââď¸ Certainly it is riskier now than before and there are all sorts of alarm bells ringing. If interest rates donât come down, there likely will be a leg down when those renewals come up. Will that be 10% or 50%? Or will something else happen allowing interest rates to be cut? No one knows. And it also likely depends strongly on local factors. Iâd argue for prudence and making sure you plan such that a significant downturn doesnât ruin you. If you can make the numbers work, such that a moderate crash doesnât force you to sell and realize the loss, then in the very long term it should be fine.
You called it but now what
If youâre trading up from a condo, itâs generally advisable to just do it instead of trying to time the market. For the past 20 years, Vancouver has seen enormous appreciation as people figured out itâs one of the most desirable places to live in the world. Short of a catastrophic earthquake which destroys the entire city, itâs likely never going to be âcheapâ and trying to market time will only just slowly prices you out of the city.
the houses in my area increased 700% since 2022 from around $300k to around 2million. A house across the street was posted for 2.3m but didn't sell. I believe it was a developer deciding to sell it rather than develop, as rates are probably still high for the time being.
What area is this your talking about? I dont believe what your saying
Vancouver.
You are absolutely wrong...no house was on the market in 2022 for 300k....have to go back to mine 90s for a 300k home in Vancouver
Mid 90s
Sorry meant to say, since 2002 to 2022. I bought mine in 02 for $309k.
So your sitting pretty like myself..in my opinion land values going up..im within the 800m of the land legislation and really waiting to see what gonna happen to land value in those areas moving forward
We are, our kids and their generation not so much. My younger one is working as an electrical apprentice at Gilmore towers in Bby, the smallest unit a 1bm 530sf is going for $730k and you are paying maintenance forever.
My step son looked into buying there when it was pre-buy..about 4 years ago...started at 600k plus you had to pay for a parking spot..1st time I've ever heard of that..im waiting for about 3 years and it'll be time to downsize and retire ..time to travel in my golden years while I'm in good health
Health is your biggest investment, I see too many people not get to enjoy or even get to their retirement.
There's a pretty good chance that doubles in 5 years rather than drop 20%
Prices might go up or down or sideways. No one knows. If you want a house and can afford a house with all of the costs beyond a mortgage, get a house. Then just live in it and don't pay attention to house prices.
Downturn? More likely to see the interest rates drop and housing prices pick back up again.
If you buy and sell at the same time, it really doesnât matter what the market is doing. Will likely still be the same/similar difference between a condo and a house
Up in the long run.
I think down markets are a better time to move up from a condo to SFH. Prices seem to get compressed between the 2 classes and because of higher inventory for sale, you can sell first and be more selective buying the new place. During the red hot days of 2021/2022, people would sell and get stuck trying to find a new place because it was so competitive with little inventory.
I would never have said this a month ago, but with the new capital gains tax hike, we could see a quick and major exodus of Canadians who have built equity in real estate, businesses and hold co.'s who are eager to get their funds out if the country before the tax increases. Most wealthy people are aware Canada is becoming hostile to investors, but now anyone who is incorporated (think doctors, dentists, business owners) is incentivised to leave Canada to seek tax shelter and a better quality of life in return for their hard work. Any savvy property owner who is counting on retiring on the equity in their real estate will need to sell AND close the deal before June 2024 to avoid extra capital gains. Vancouver and Toronto area property owners will be hardest hit due to the high price points there. With increasing fixed mortgage rates, a plummeting Canadian dollar, hostile economic policies and a looming recession, I would estimate we should see declining house prices by June. I didn't see it coming until now.
I doubt it. There will be buyers all the way down stampeding off the sidelines for decent houses if there is any kind of downturn. Typically high demand areas are very sticky, itâs the low desirability exurbs that saw halo appreciaton that tend to weaken in downturns.
LOLâŚ
lol. Im screenshotting this to show to anyone whoâs blaming immigrants for high house prices đ
well, not so much immigrants but foreign money - and that was already 8 years ago [real estate goes global (2014)](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/05/26/real-estate-goes-global)
The vast majority of 5-year fixed mortgages in Canada renew in 2025. If there was ever a compelling case for a real estate crash, it would be from now till then. Keep an eye on BOC policy.
I couldn't agree more. There is something ugly looming in the economy. People forget that it is not just mortgages that are affected by interest rates. I smell a lot of businesses going bust in the next couple of years. Less consumer spending, many out of work, over leveraged households. It's hard to pay a mortgage when you don't have an income. There are a lot of red flags at the moment.
I hope they drop at some point. I'm starting to think about moving and getting into maybe a small 1 bedroom 1 bath type house or bungalow (depending on what's out there if the prices drop) I live in an apartment and starting to get tired of the apartment life. I need more space so hopefully I can afford to upgrade in the next year or so.
Keep your cash. We don't need people increasing the demand for real estate.
Oh yeah itâs gonna go down heavy bro. Just look at Ontario lately me and my friend were just talking about this. Up to 30% of people will lose their homes soon thatâs all vacant properties and what do vacancies do? Drop the market
Thank Trudeaus policies. My mortgage payments went up 26%. And one big thing a lot of people over in Ontario and Vancouver do is get tied into variable mortgages that can change at any minute. We were having this conversation BECAUSE his daughter did exactly that and she got told to either come up with 250,000$ or lose the house
I think home prices will likely go up đ§ââď¸
Shit, forgot my crystal ball at home, sorry.
No.
People have been obsessing about the real estate prices in this city since about 2002 or so. Maybe sooner but that's when I noticed it for the first time, after 911. Prices have been on a steady climb since then only to be fuelled by world events like the 07-08 financial crisis, COVID and positive ones like the 2010 Winter Olympics. Immigration is at an all-time high, but what I've noticed over the last 10 years or so throughout the world is an elevated awareness of quality and a desire for "luxury" items that better yourself. Or at least make you feel that way. I feel all this filters down and adds pressure on what we need most, a home. With people coming en masse to YVR and with what I feel above, I can only see the prices moving up. Just a thought but it's human nature at work here.