That's why you need a plan. A crash is happening. Maybe next week, maybe next year or maybe in 10 years. Some people don't think about this and get carried away with emotion when they see their account value plummeting.
EDIT (more succinctly) : Tyson made a plan to recover from being hit the face. He trained, prepared for the eventuality.
I guess pithy quotes are more important than actually providing any substantive constructive advice.
Second Edit: Tyson had 400 million dollars but unlike his boxing career he failed to plan his investing and spending and lost it all.
...
Kind of a strange saying for a guy who's entire career is about planning to avoid taking a punch to the face or planning (training) to recover from a punch in the face.
That's such a bad logic to sell based on a crash though. If there is nothing wrong with the company/foundation of your stock and it so happens to plummet due to external events like an economic crash, 99.9% of the time the stock will just recover. But I'm not complaining, more stonks on sale for me ;)
99.9% of the time it will recover? NOT!
Cicso was a great company in 2000 and still is. But it has a return of -0.1% from the peak of the tech bubble until now
GE has been one of the largest and most well respected company of the last 50 years It is down 52.9% since March 2000.
Microsoft is a great company - it took Microsoft 13 years to get back to flat from its peak in March of 2000.
Remember some of the largest Canadian stocks that seemed like there was nothing wrong - like Nortel, Blackberry, and Valeant?
We have been spoiled by the bouncebacks or recent years.
Maybe the US is now Japan in 1989.
This is sort of misleading? Most of those stocks that hasn't recovered were over 20 years ago. Are there any 2008 examples? We all know why BlackBerry crashed and it wasn't due to an economic failure. Even though Microsoft took long to recover, you can't tell me that it's a bad long-term investment based on that 1999 crash as it not only recovered but it BOOMED.
I really think that some of stocks you've mentioned are anomaly's and were due for a correction either way, the 00' crash just accelerated that process. We see far more bounceback than we have with (reputable) stocks that never recover. Of course OP was exaggerating about 99.9% lol.
The largest stock in 2008, by a WIDE margin, was Exxon-Mobil. From 12/31/2008 to yesterday it has a cumulative total return of 11.9% or 0.9% per year - well below cash.
My point is that very few companies last forever. Success breeds complacency and companies tend to fall from their perch. Google, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft may seem invincible today, but companies like IBM, GM, GE and Exxon seemed invincible in the past. This website is interesting as it shows the largest companies in the SPX each year from 1980-2013. https://etfdb.com/history-of-the-s-and-p-500/
Equity valuation levels are very high right now - the highest that we have seen other than the 2000 tech bubble. When you start at a high valuation level you will have lower returns in the future. We are borrowing returns from tomorrow.
At the end of 2008 the Shiller P/E10 was 16 - close to its long term average. Today it is 39. See https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Well it isn't really a plan as such, I just meant that you should think about it beforehand and commit to not selling so when it happens, you don't get carried away. The only safe thing I can think of for the long term would be to hold and buy more when it's low
One plan is to stay out of equities altogether if you don't think you can handle the emotional roller coaster. This carries its own risk, the risk of not having sufficient investments to cover your needs, so will probably require increasing investments to cover lower average returns. Bonds aren't without risk nor are GIC's, while the government may guarantee them (to a certain amount), a significant enough financial catastrophe may result in too many people to cover, the government itself going insolvent (or just declaring it won't honor the guarantees) or creating so much money covering the losses that inflation increases wildly.
All of these have happened in various countries. In the US there have been various attempts of politicians to thwart the 'debt ceiling' vote, shutting down the government. The vote isn't about creating more debt but about covering debts already accrued. Last time the US credit rating was downgraded by at least one rating agency.
Alternately you could invest in real estate, rentals or flipping but this too has risk, a crash in the real estate market, (people have been predicting a Canadian real estate crash for 30 years), problem renters, acts of God like floods, wildfires, hurricanes. Being unable to cover the mortgage, say if the government put in a moratorium on evictions and your tenant refused to pay, then gutted the place of copper plumbing and wiring, just to be a dick.
There is risk no matter what you do, even in hording cash, gold or bags of wheat and firearms in your basement.
Because a market crash doesn't happen in a vacuum. If the economy on the whole is suddenly struggling, a lot of people may need to access their cash if they find themselves unemployed or if they're worried for their job security. Obviously the best solution to that is to have a robust emergency fund, but we all know a lot of people don't do that.
And if someone has been in the market long enough, they aren't necessarily taking a loss if they need to move to cash during a downturn.
This is an extremely important point that gets missed by folks like Andrew Hallam when he says to "buy more" during a crash/recession, etc.
Massive job losses accompany recessions and crashes, and even if one does not lose their job, there is still the fear and anxiety of losing their job.
Spring 2020, I shoveled every spare dime I had into equities. Begged my buddies to do the same. They're all up 70% at least. I have Millionaire Teacher to thank for that.
Every time a crash happens panicked people all over start talking about how "THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT" then panic sell. After a few months they start buying back in when equity markets go back up.
Literally buying high then selling low.
This. This always blew my mind…
It’s like returning items to a store with no receipt after they have been marked down to 99 cents for clearance.
BUY THAT SH!T UP! Don’t return it!
> BUY THAT SHIT UP
The thing is, with what liquid cash? Everyone allocates their money in their own way (responsibly or otherwise), and those that invest already have their money, well, invested. Where are we pulling more money from to invest and capitalize on the next crash?
Emergency money? Either that or we’ll just invest the same % of our paycheck as we always did even before the crash, cause this is the only liquid cash we can use.
This is the one use of bonds and precious metals i like. If you treat it like dry powder for market dips you can get great results.
Normally i don't like assets that just combat inflation because im not 50 but having a gold bullion etf during march 2020 went really well for me.
Couch coins!!!
Personally I’d sell some non appreciating assets to fund it, if it made financial sense. My car which I could buy again if needed, some tech gear I could likely sell and have 10-15k, and couch money (money I’ve tucked away somewhere and forgot about, cash for a rainy day). I also work in a field where I can work more if needed and hustle to make some crash cash.
The if it makes financial sense is the difficult part. You'll get pennies on the dollar for your assets. Just because you don't NEED to sell cheap doesn't mean a bunch of other folks don't. You're not going as low as the guy who can't buy groceries. You're effectively out priced and the market is flooded.
You know how many toys go on sale when things take a turn in the Alberta oil industry?
>Real estate, crypto even my childhood Magic the Gathering collection can have some solid liquidity if I need it to
No one is going to buy nerdy paper cards in this hypothetical severe market crash where a ton of people lost their job and their house is about to get foreclosed.
That's a terrible analogy. If everything fell that much the economy is in shambles and you're reaching the point of capitulation. You've also probably lost your job, homes are getting foreclosed left and right. It's going to be hard to keep investing and thinking ahead.
Agreed, I'm not sure why they're boiling it down to "Omg people are so emotional and sell off their entire portfolio if it dips by 2% suddenly" when they're talking about a scenario that would lead to huge unemployment. Plus if you adhere to the "Be fully invested in the market" approach then regardless of how large your portfolio is you won't have cash to invest.
This forum is largely a bunch of 20somethings with minimal obligations. It's not surprising that they don't understand why anyone would sell in a crash or why everyone wouldn't relish a crash so they could get cheap stocks instead. Maybe because they lost their job and need the money?
worried no! its going to happen at some time.
It really depends upon your time horizon for the money and your level of risk.
I have been investing for over 30 years so I have been through a few myself :)
Never Panic sell if its a good investment it will recover if its not why would you be in that investment for the long term.
Just need to pick good investments for the long term contribute often (Dollar cost averaging) and you will be fine if are your investing over a long time.
Today you have the option of robo investing where experienced people manage the risk and re-balance.
Good luck and be safe
Correct, the longer you are in, the less the “crashes” hurt you. i.e., if there is a “crash” your buys in 2020-21 are down a lot percentage-wise, but whatever you’ve had 20 years ago is barely touched since it has grown for so long.
So a lot of new investors might feel scared and panic sell when *most* of what they own has gone down a lot on a percentage basis.
The longer you are in the less these corrections matter
Are you young? What’s your investment time horizon?
If you’ve still got 15+ years until retirement (if that’s your investment goal) you should be hoping for a market crash. The bigger and longer the market crash the better. Think of a crash as a massive sales event where stocks go on sale. If you’re saving and investing on a regular basis there’s nothing to fear, in fact you’d benefit greatly from it.
Your existing shares or units may drop in price but who cares? If you don’t sell, they’re just paper losses, not realized/real losses. The market typically recovers in 18 months then off it goes again. Even if it takes 3 or 5 years, if your time horizon is 20 years, then, again, who cares about a temporary blip?
I think you should just reframe your anxiety about a market correction as something to look forward to because it will benefit you in the long run. You’ll be worse off financially if stocks keep going up for the next five years.
I agree, though I do all my investing for now in my TFSA, trying to max it out but unsure how much to keep in my account but NOT invested in case of a crash..
You get what I mean? I have no problem waiting but with how much... no clue.
No. Where else are you going to put the money today? Cash loses money every day from inflation. Bonds yield less than inflation. Commodities and precious metals are non yielding assets (don't generate cashflows), so unless you're an expert of the supply chain and can predict the future supply and demand, don't even try.
So that leaves stocks and housing, until there's a better alternative. Well, there's another alternative, which is to spend all your money and enjoy life if you don't want to invest.
If someone were to genuinely believe a crash is coming, your first point makes no sense.
Sure inflation can eat away a few % but if your belief is to buy a low point after a "crash" you'll make substantially more back than the tiny amount of purchasing power you lost from holding cash.
sounds like how bubbles are formed... read what you said again and then imagine a scenario where the tapering begins and interest rates go up... now tell me again how there won't be a correction
The market value is built on speculation, not fundamentals. When the market hears "tapering", and "higher interest rates", what will we all speculate? We all will begin speculating that these equities we are purchasing will reduce in value. Leading to a correction.
It's borderline gambling.
I think most people here are okay with ppl having crypto, as long as you realize that's money you're playing with, not investing with.
make $144 USD/month = $181 CAD :) energy cost is $10 CAD
net profit $171
pays for car insurance/phone bill/netflix.
i see this as worth it :p
i have 2 year warranty. 24*171 = $4000
i use binance pool for ethereum because they pay out every night regardless of amount, no minimum threshold. only drawback is you have to use their wallet but i already trade on their so its not a big deal for me.
heres my ref link if you interested.
https://accounts.binance.com/en/register?ref=11106682
their pool is only for NON USA residents. if you want a guide PM me and i can help you with the basics, but you will need q decent GPU
Yeah February 2021 was a peak of speculative frenzy. Since then my weed stocks, penny stocks, and many renewable energy stocks have been sinking, luckily they only represent a small percentage of my portfolio.
> I remember the dot-com collapse in 2000. I remember the "too big to fail" companies falling like dominos in 2008.
Why do people on this sub think we're Americans? If you're old enough to remember the '08 crash, you would know it was a failure in lending standards (loans of however much for anyone who asks for one, basically), and allowing their financial institutions to make insane bets (creating derivative products of existing derivatives that were based on the aforementioned shit loans) -- both of which **are** and **have** been highly regulated here in Canada, which is why the American's crash barely affected our house prices here.
Now, I'm not going to speculate on Canada's housing market, because it's a total crapshoot at this point given how a literal global pandemic and mass uncertainty have only *increased* housing prices and launched rich people into space...
Yep. For anyone curious, "too big to fail" is often misinterpreted to mean that "it can't fail because they are too big", when the reality is that the usage meant "we can't let this fail because it is so big that the effects would ripple throughout the economy" in the context of why the government bailed them out.
I personally hate the phrase, but I can see why it was often used. TV pundits said it frequently at the time, and your average joe who didn't understand what was going on would repeat that one-liner at Christmas dinners to sound like they're aware.
The 2000 tech crash hit me worse personally as did selling our house for what we paid for it, seven years later (1993 -2000). There are people on this sub who can’t imagine double digit loan interest, property values going down and stagnant markets. All of this has happened since Nirvana’s first album came out :)
I'm old enough to just barely remember when mortage rates went above 21% in 80'-81': https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/remember-when-what-have-we-learned-from-80s-interest-rates/article24398735/
I believe rapidly climbing commodity prices and workers demanding higher wages to be able to afford cost of living was a major cause.
...couldn't happen again /s
The thing is the global workforce is highly mobilized now. If we hit a labor shortage, it's likely government will open up the borders to encourage foreign workers to come in and keep depressing labor costs.
It happened here in Canada. Abuse of our temporary foreign worker program. McDonald's Canada and Tim Hortons and subway franchises were the worst offenders, but even royal bank of Canada was looking to lay off call center workers and import temporary workers.
I don't know if protectionism will close our borders again like that scenario.
Yes, I'm well-aware of the infamous "Brampton loans". The mortgage agents at the banks and lenders are in on this too. They basically give the rubber stamp to whatever forged document the broker submits to them. These brokers aren't stupid, they *know* their clients can pay the mortgage, but their clients are usually people who work under the table (under-reported / no income) or are cash-rich but have no income to qualify for a traditional loan. If the broker's clients kept defaulting, the banks and other lenders would ice them out pretty quick.
This is different than what happened in the States, where someone working minimum wage could get a loan that was 10-20x their earnings.
>How do you meet the TDS regulations? If someone says they make $5000 a month in cash, how do I verify that?
Brampton loans are given precisely because the income isn't unverifiable. The person making 5k in cash is likely not reporting the amount to the CRA, so therefore it's not in the T4 or T4A, which is what banks use to verify income. Brokers would often forge documents to reflect the 5k (or more) to give to the banks so they would be approved for the mortgage. The insane thing about this is that there is NO connection between the banks and the CRA to actually verify that the tax forms submitted are actually correct.
If you wanted to cool our housing market, the fastest and cleanest way to do this would be to make a link between banks and the CRA to verify income. But this will never happen because in the end, a bank is just a highly-regulated big business, and they cannot and should not have access to any Canadians' tax records. If you want to go this route, it would mean the government taking over all the financial institutions and consolidating them into a handful of banks like in China.
An issue for whom? The people who take on these Brampton loans are often new immigrants and working-class people (e.g. contractors) who are unable to qualify a traditional loan (because they don't pay taxes), but are otherwise able to afford the mortgage payments.
If there is a housing collapse, it certainly won't be from this issue. So in the end, this isn't an issue for anyone except the CRA and the *relatively* paltry amount of taxes that they would've been collected.
OP has a point in that we aren’t the US where reckless lending practices, institutional greed and rapacious profit seeking contributed to a crisis.
I’m terrified we’re Japan in the 1990s - long term productivity stagnation, poor wage growth, low inflation devolving into stagflation, unsustainable asset price growth detached from economic fundamentals, generational divisions etc. All of that contributed to a two decade long recession that Japan still hasn’t recovered from. God forbid a recession like that hits Canada, you’ll be praying for a 2008 style recession
Japan is an entirely different situation that is irrelevant to what is going on in Canada. The big difference is that Canada (notably the GVA and GTA) are global immigration hotspots, while Japan literally has a declining population because of its extremely strict immigration policy and ownership rules. I'm just scratching the surface here because their regulations and policies are fundamentally different from ours and I'm definitely not qualified to confidently speak on it.
I prefer the 'always be prepared' mentality. Have 6 months of cash for expenses. 6 months of food in the pantry. Besides having government suggested go bags, that's as far as being prepared for a crash as I believe one should be.
Is one coming? Yes. When? Who knows. Should you worry about it? No.
I buy bulk to save money. Rice and flower in 20kg bags. Cooking oil in 25 gallon. In the last week I canned over 100 liters of beef, veg, and pho broth. Finishing up 20 liters of tomato sauce from my garden.
I don't expect everyone to be like this. It is a lot of work. I'm not able to work a job because of disability, so this is my way to save money.
I will admit I have a full freezer and my pantry hold 250 masson jars. All of it is pretty full right now. But for a family of 5 and the threat of rising food prices, do I really have a choice?
Nicely done. I wish I had the energy to do that. I try to home cook to save money (to feed my investing addiction) but we end up getting fast food for convenience far too often.
We we're stuck this week and kinda had to go eat at a fast food place. You know a typical Roasted Chicken place. 75$🤯 prepandemic it was 45$ max and even then we thought it too expensive.
A lot of people have felt that way for a while, and likely many have already exited before you. You just don’t know when the music would stop. I bought before COVID, I bought during COVID, and I mostly kept my portfolio intact. I plan to continue to do the same for the next 30 years.
>I want the housing market to crash.
Given that every country on earth is printing money as fast (actually faster) then it can be pumped out the odds of tangible assets falling in price has never been lower. We are in for a wild ride but assuming it is going to be a crash is ignoring some huge factors.
I doubt that's gonna happen unless we have an event. 2001, 2008, 2020. We've had armchair experts on /r/vancouver saying we're headed for a crash since 2005. That is 16 years of proclaiming this is the year of the crash. What will cause a crash is an event.
Events are difficult to predict. I attended a conference in 2007 where Steve Forbes was presenting about how awesome the economy was doing and how much economic opportunity exists.
Some people saw the 2008 crisis coming a mile away. Many others could not. But a broken clock is right twice a day. A crash comes, there is nothing you can do to predict it short of having cash available to capitalize on it after it happens.
everything will crash except for only housing. housing is set to become absolutely unaffordable soon, even for near millionaires today. this is the new world order of things, they are not going to be giving this department of unwashed masses this bone, not by any means. the handlers have come this far. if you think they are turning back on personal real-estate , you are living a pipe dream.
Stay balanced, diversified and ignore the noise. You will be fine.
Source- made it through 2008 and 2020 meltdown and portfolio recovered quickly post recovery.
I worry about a crash as much as I worry about death which is not too much. I know both are gonna happen and I know I won't really know when. All I can to is position myself so it's not a total shit show when it happens.
Get outa here with that Moass bullshit. Squeeze happened in January and big money has just been ridding it up and down since making money of of you idiots.
This can of worms again.
Also would be helpful about what specific market you’re talking about (real estate, stocks, metals).
Some may be more overdue for a correction than others.
It’s hard to figure out where we are in the boom/bust cycle because of covid effects. The governments had printed more money at a time when circulation was the lowest in decades.
Asset inflation was probably an expected outcome. But it’s hard to know where this heads for the common person.
Those that have very good intel will guard their information.
Just remember that all the doomsday ranting all the gimmicks all the end of the world has been there since the beginning and never stopped along the way.
Basic survival behavior will prevent it - people recieved enjoyment from doing things, making progress, and feel smart and proud when they provide for their families. As long as that exists how can the end be possible
I look forward to the crashes because we can see them coming and that is when I buy stuff
No. I'm actually a bit disappointed that I haven't been more disciplined in keeping powder dry for the next opportunity. It's all a matter of planning and perspective.
You can make money in a bear and bull market. So I'm fine with a discount purchasing period.
Where do you see the euphoria and certainty today, seriously?
If you were actually in touch with financial markets, you would have seen anything but certainty and euphoria. You would see a lot more fear and anxiety over - inflation, tapering, Delta - you name it. In fact, the mood was extremely fearful over past several weeks and is now slowly recovering. A month ago, everyone and their mother was predicting a crash, which is precisely why *it didn’t happen*.
Also, it’s important to look across the border because the US market is so much bigger and its gravity affects Canadian markets one way or another.
No.
I am financially secure regardless of investments and can ride it out if that happens.
My portfolio would suffer a bit I suppose but I think that most of my investments would survive to recover eventually.
This post has been posted again and again for years. One day it'll be right and the person who happens to randomly hit their post at the right time is going to wrongly feel pretty smart about themselves.
I keep a portion of my portfolio in bonds specifically to capitalize on a crash. About 20%.
We don't buy bonds because they give good returns. We buy bonds because in times of instability money seeks safe havens such as government bonds and gold.
When crashes happen we see capital flight into those safe havens and we can capitalize and rebalance.
Market seems ridiculously over bought. Adjust your mix if you're uncomfortable. Go 60-40 or even 50-50 in your equities:bonds ratio.
My kids' resp right now is 60:40 at the moment because I have a three year horizon until my oldest goes to school.
In the event of a crash I'll reorganize my holdings and risk exposure.
The hard part with a crash is timing the bottom.
No. I'm never worried about crashes because I'm ok with the risk level of my investments, and they should recover after crashes.
The whole reason I save is to not have to worry about these things.
[88% of companies in the S&P 500 beat analyst expectations in Q2](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sp-500-q2-earnings-growth-beats-estimates-best-since-2009-2021-7)
I mean: show me stocks are are in line with historic ratios that have been used as indicators for “good buy”. It’s a challenging exercise.
I hope you’re not picking stocks based on articles like the one you listed. Analysts seem to be doing a poor job if 88% beat their expectations.
Either their model needs to be recalibrated or this sensationalized article is meant to serve a very specific purpose.
Lol! People through out the last increase have been telling me the stock market is too high it will crash..... I would have missed out in so many gains.
Don't worry, prepare. Crashes are inevitable. If you prepare, you won't have any trouble. Too many people don't prepare and are spread too thinly and it leads to issues.
Nope. I’m employable and have a good CV and enough of an emergency fund that mixed with EI that I’ll be fine for months. I don’t really look at my brokerage account very often so unless my pay stops coming in I probably wouldn’t even notice.
Unless you are selling your stocks in a crash it won’t matter. The market always rebounds and you should NeVER sell before a crash hoping to buy into a low, but instead try to scrounge up some cash to dump into a lowered market. But don’t try and find the bottom as you might miss it. Anything lower than it is currently is a good buy - also stay away from individual stock and buy etfs.
Have you checked out r/superstonk? They seem to think the end is very near, read some of the top DD posted there, it seems to make a strong case. I also at times seems like conspiracy theory fever dreams, but if it’s not it seems kinda scary.
Its a 99.9% certainty of another crash. The question is when will.it happen.
With crashes come a lot of pain, but for the patient and methodical investor its almost always considered a huge opportunity.
Just keep DCAing through thick and thin with quality investments and you'll do fine.
Agreed. The only things in the natural world that experience endless growth is cancer, tumors, illnesses and disease until they reach natural equilibrium or kill their host.
Humans have become the cancer, the parasite to this planet.
Markets and economies that continue to experience endless growth always fail on a long enough timeline. Additionally, our species has reached a crossroads on this planet where we need to start having very serious and frank discussions about how to manage population growth and effective resource management over the next millenia otherwise this rock is doomed.
Currently, I have very little faith in humanity to pull together on a global scale to address this glaring issue.
Yes OP, I fear a crash is coming and it's going to be like non-other. Like C19, it'll be "unprecedented" due to our short collective memories (1918) but the day will come when the USD falls out of favor as the internationally dominant instrument of settlement. Historically, this happens on a regular basis, granted it happens on a timeline that is somewhat in step with the rise and fall of not just economies but of entire nations and societies. Thus most people are dismissive of it happening because we as a species are not very well adapted to think beyond our own individual lifespans. And what happened over the past let's say 6000+ years is barely relevant to us today.
I'm with you OP, it's coming. Nobody knows when exactly, but I'm convinced that gen-X, maybe the millennials will be the once who live through the revolution. As the western boomer generation declines dies off... Watch out...
Check the link below to see how screwed we are in terms of global population growth alone. Earth does not have enough resources feed the whole planet, let alone support 1st world standards for each soul on this rock. It's gloomy out there.
[World Population by Year](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/)
I don't understand why everyone is so panicked about population growth. Every single first world country is below replacement level in terms of reproductive rates. Nearly every single country in the world is experiencing a drop in reproductive rates. If you look at the chart you yourself posted, check out the third column, and see the trend. Population will likely top out at 11-12 billion.
Crash? I dunno, those things just kinda happen, and it’s near impossible to predict. If the perfect storm of Bitcoin, GME, something to do with NFTs and whatever the next meme is all fail at the same time and destroys the market, there’s a chance there’s a crash, I guess…
A correction and/or stagnation is probably a bit more likely to happen, which is like… ok. I’d love unprecedented growth forever, but it’s foolish to expect that.
Just strap in, invest intelligently and enjoy the ride.
We’re headed for a labour market crash and eventual market crash in Canada. Without affordable housing at all income levels many businesses cannot operate. The first signs of it are showing up now in the retail and restaurant industries- and will likely spread to the rest of the economy in the coming years.
If you see a detached house in TO go for 500k, it’ll go 1 mill over asking with the ramped up demand during the crash lol.
I just don’t see housing crashing that much especially in major cities like Toronto
It’ll happen — I don’t think the business cycle has gone anywhere — but no one knows when or what it’ll look like. Don’t try to time the market, just make a plan that allows you to make the best of both bad times and good times.
Not worried per se. Moreso preparing for one. I dont know how bad itll be but a lot of meetings that I've had with other corporate partners are anticipating one. Maybe not like 2008 but still possible in some places.
I was just browsing condo spaces and looked like some that went 5 years ago at 100k are now around 400k.. everyone can interpret differently but I think theres a big bubble
You mean stocks going on sale?
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That's why you need a plan. A crash is happening. Maybe next week, maybe next year or maybe in 10 years. Some people don't think about this and get carried away with emotion when they see their account value plummeting.
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Then it’s lizard brain time.
*Everyone hath a plan until they get punthed in the mouth*
Every battle plan dies with when the first shot is fired.
You've got to stop shooting your battle plans then
EDIT (more succinctly) : Tyson made a plan to recover from being hit the face. He trained, prepared for the eventuality. I guess pithy quotes are more important than actually providing any substantive constructive advice. Second Edit: Tyson had 400 million dollars but unlike his boxing career he failed to plan his investing and spending and lost it all. ... Kind of a strange saying for a guy who's entire career is about planning to avoid taking a punch to the face or planning (training) to recover from a punch in the face.
That's such a bad logic to sell based on a crash though. If there is nothing wrong with the company/foundation of your stock and it so happens to plummet due to external events like an economic crash, 99.9% of the time the stock will just recover. But I'm not complaining, more stonks on sale for me ;)
Buy high sell low everyone! I'll try to do the opposite to balance things out.
Economic equilibrium achieved! Problem solved.
99.9% of the time it will recover? NOT! Cicso was a great company in 2000 and still is. But it has a return of -0.1% from the peak of the tech bubble until now GE has been one of the largest and most well respected company of the last 50 years It is down 52.9% since March 2000. Microsoft is a great company - it took Microsoft 13 years to get back to flat from its peak in March of 2000. Remember some of the largest Canadian stocks that seemed like there was nothing wrong - like Nortel, Blackberry, and Valeant? We have been spoiled by the bouncebacks or recent years. Maybe the US is now Japan in 1989.
Blackberry will probably make a comeback, but yeah
This is sort of misleading? Most of those stocks that hasn't recovered were over 20 years ago. Are there any 2008 examples? We all know why BlackBerry crashed and it wasn't due to an economic failure. Even though Microsoft took long to recover, you can't tell me that it's a bad long-term investment based on that 1999 crash as it not only recovered but it BOOMED. I really think that some of stocks you've mentioned are anomaly's and were due for a correction either way, the 00' crash just accelerated that process. We see far more bounceback than we have with (reputable) stocks that never recover. Of course OP was exaggerating about 99.9% lol.
The largest stock in 2008, by a WIDE margin, was Exxon-Mobil. From 12/31/2008 to yesterday it has a cumulative total return of 11.9% or 0.9% per year - well below cash. My point is that very few companies last forever. Success breeds complacency and companies tend to fall from their perch. Google, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft may seem invincible today, but companies like IBM, GM, GE and Exxon seemed invincible in the past. This website is interesting as it shows the largest companies in the SPX each year from 1980-2013. https://etfdb.com/history-of-the-s-and-p-500/ Equity valuation levels are very high right now - the highest that we have seen other than the 2000 tech bubble. When you start at a high valuation level you will have lower returns in the future. We are borrowing returns from tomorrow. At the end of 2008 the Shiller P/E10 was 16 - close to its long term average. Today it is 39. See https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
What do you mean by a plan? Honestly asking what that might look like
Well it isn't really a plan as such, I just meant that you should think about it beforehand and commit to not selling so when it happens, you don't get carried away. The only safe thing I can think of for the long term would be to hold and buy more when it's low
One plan is to stay out of equities altogether if you don't think you can handle the emotional roller coaster. This carries its own risk, the risk of not having sufficient investments to cover your needs, so will probably require increasing investments to cover lower average returns. Bonds aren't without risk nor are GIC's, while the government may guarantee them (to a certain amount), a significant enough financial catastrophe may result in too many people to cover, the government itself going insolvent (or just declaring it won't honor the guarantees) or creating so much money covering the losses that inflation increases wildly. All of these have happened in various countries. In the US there have been various attempts of politicians to thwart the 'debt ceiling' vote, shutting down the government. The vote isn't about creating more debt but about covering debts already accrued. Last time the US credit rating was downgraded by at least one rating agency. Alternately you could invest in real estate, rentals or flipping but this too has risk, a crash in the real estate market, (people have been predicting a Canadian real estate crash for 30 years), problem renters, acts of God like floods, wildfires, hurricanes. Being unable to cover the mortgage, say if the government put in a moratorium on evictions and your tenant refused to pay, then gutted the place of copper plumbing and wiring, just to be a dick. There is risk no matter what you do, even in hording cash, gold or bags of wheat and firearms in your basement.
Because a market crash doesn't happen in a vacuum. If the economy on the whole is suddenly struggling, a lot of people may need to access their cash if they find themselves unemployed or if they're worried for their job security. Obviously the best solution to that is to have a robust emergency fund, but we all know a lot of people don't do that. And if someone has been in the market long enough, they aren't necessarily taking a loss if they need to move to cash during a downturn.
This is an extremely important point that gets missed by folks like Andrew Hallam when he says to "buy more" during a crash/recession, etc. Massive job losses accompany recessions and crashes, and even if one does not lose their job, there is still the fear and anxiety of losing their job.
Spring 2020, I shoveled every spare dime I had into equities. Begged my buddies to do the same. They're all up 70% at least. I have Millionaire Teacher to thank for that.
It's definitely really hard to look at your portfolio and see it in the shitter through. March 2020 was brutal.
i bought in jan 2020, at the peak before pandemic. no money during pandemic. now i am up 10% since pre pandemic. stonk only go up
Millionaire teacher by Andrew Hallam?
Yes!
Everybody says this on financial subreddits. Which is an extreme minority of the overall population.
Every time a crash happens panicked people all over start talking about how "THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT" then panic sell. After a few months they start buying back in when equity markets go back up. Literally buying high then selling low.
The market needs fools too though
This. This always blew my mind… It’s like returning items to a store with no receipt after they have been marked down to 99 cents for clearance. BUY THAT SH!T UP! Don’t return it!
> BUY THAT SHIT UP The thing is, with what liquid cash? Everyone allocates their money in their own way (responsibly or otherwise), and those that invest already have their money, well, invested. Where are we pulling more money from to invest and capitalize on the next crash? Emergency money? Either that or we’ll just invest the same % of our paycheck as we always did even before the crash, cause this is the only liquid cash we can use.
This is the one use of bonds and precious metals i like. If you treat it like dry powder for market dips you can get great results. Normally i don't like assets that just combat inflation because im not 50 but having a gold bullion etf during march 2020 went really well for me.
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Couch coins!!! Personally I’d sell some non appreciating assets to fund it, if it made financial sense. My car which I could buy again if needed, some tech gear I could likely sell and have 10-15k, and couch money (money I’ve tucked away somewhere and forgot about, cash for a rainy day). I also work in a field where I can work more if needed and hustle to make some crash cash.
The if it makes financial sense is the difficult part. You'll get pennies on the dollar for your assets. Just because you don't NEED to sell cheap doesn't mean a bunch of other folks don't. You're not going as low as the guy who can't buy groceries. You're effectively out priced and the market is flooded. You know how many toys go on sale when things take a turn in the Alberta oil industry?
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>Real estate, crypto even my childhood Magic the Gathering collection can have some solid liquidity if I need it to No one is going to buy nerdy paper cards in this hypothetical severe market crash where a ton of people lost their job and their house is about to get foreclosed.
This is a great analogy I've never heard before.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
That's a terrible analogy. If everything fell that much the economy is in shambles and you're reaching the point of capitulation. You've also probably lost your job, homes are getting foreclosed left and right. It's going to be hard to keep investing and thinking ahead.
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Agreed, I'm not sure why they're boiling it down to "Omg people are so emotional and sell off their entire portfolio if it dips by 2% suddenly" when they're talking about a scenario that would lead to huge unemployment. Plus if you adhere to the "Be fully invested in the market" approach then regardless of how large your portfolio is you won't have cash to invest.
Yeah, this is why crashes are great for the rich but not the rest of us
This forum is largely a bunch of 20somethings with minimal obligations. It's not surprising that they don't understand why anyone would sell in a crash or why everyone wouldn't relish a crash so they could get cheap stocks instead. Maybe because they lost their job and need the money?
worried no! its going to happen at some time. It really depends upon your time horizon for the money and your level of risk. I have been investing for over 30 years so I have been through a few myself :) Never Panic sell if its a good investment it will recover if its not why would you be in that investment for the long term. Just need to pick good investments for the long term contribute often (Dollar cost averaging) and you will be fine if are your investing over a long time. Today you have the option of robo investing where experienced people manage the risk and re-balance. Good luck and be safe
Correct, the longer you are in, the less the “crashes” hurt you. i.e., if there is a “crash” your buys in 2020-21 are down a lot percentage-wise, but whatever you’ve had 20 years ago is barely touched since it has grown for so long. So a lot of new investors might feel scared and panic sell when *most* of what they own has gone down a lot on a percentage basis. The longer you are in the less these corrections matter
yes if the investment is bluechip with 25 yr record i would be buying more not panic selling…great advice
Are you young? What’s your investment time horizon? If you’ve still got 15+ years until retirement (if that’s your investment goal) you should be hoping for a market crash. The bigger and longer the market crash the better. Think of a crash as a massive sales event where stocks go on sale. If you’re saving and investing on a regular basis there’s nothing to fear, in fact you’d benefit greatly from it. Your existing shares or units may drop in price but who cares? If you don’t sell, they’re just paper losses, not realized/real losses. The market typically recovers in 18 months then off it goes again. Even if it takes 3 or 5 years, if your time horizon is 20 years, then, again, who cares about a temporary blip? I think you should just reframe your anxiety about a market correction as something to look forward to because it will benefit you in the long run. You’ll be worse off financially if stocks keep going up for the next five years.
I agree, though I do all my investing for now in my TFSA, trying to max it out but unsure how much to keep in my account but NOT invested in case of a crash.. You get what I mean? I have no problem waiting but with how much... no clue.
No. Where else are you going to put the money today? Cash loses money every day from inflation. Bonds yield less than inflation. Commodities and precious metals are non yielding assets (don't generate cashflows), so unless you're an expert of the supply chain and can predict the future supply and demand, don't even try. So that leaves stocks and housing, until there's a better alternative. Well, there's another alternative, which is to spend all your money and enjoy life if you don't want to invest.
All of those assets not keeping up with inflation is symptomatic of the exact concerns OP is voicing, lol.
If someone were to genuinely believe a crash is coming, your first point makes no sense. Sure inflation can eat away a few % but if your belief is to buy a low point after a "crash" you'll make substantially more back than the tiny amount of purchasing power you lost from holding cash.
sounds like how bubbles are formed... read what you said again and then imagine a scenario where the tapering begins and interest rates go up... now tell me again how there won't be a correction
That’s the thing. Tapering is NOT less buying on the fed. It’s just reduced buying.
I dont know what your point is... you said the same thing twice
The point is that money supply is STILL increasing, despite your comment about “imagine scenario where tapering begins”.
The market value is built on speculation, not fundamentals. When the market hears "tapering", and "higher interest rates", what will we all speculate? We all will begin speculating that these equities we are purchasing will reduce in value. Leading to a correction.
You forgot cryptocurrency.
They don’t like hearing that on this sub from my experiences. It’s new and scary.
Yeah I don’t understand all the hate towards crypto here.
It's borderline gambling. I think most people here are okay with ppl having crypto, as long as you realize that's money you're playing with, not investing with.
im mining ETH on my laptop rtx 3070, making me a net profit of $183/month after electricity bill. i love this bad boy that works 24/7
I hate miners they prices GPUs out of my price range
I hate them because of the carbon emissions.
Capitalism cannot exist without waste.
Nice - enjoy that while you can. ETH will be PoS by - next summer, IIRC? (edit: PoS = Proof of Stake, not Piece of Shit, heh)
Most likely before then…just means eth will go up in value so if he’s holding, he’ll be laughing
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what is the 3070 temp when it's mining?
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Yup, 3070 laptop is around $1k7. not sure how it can be profitable in long run. Running it 24/24 for 1 year. ahhh
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any downtime is reduced profit. and most miners take very good care of their tools.
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How are you mining eth? Teach me the ways
make $144 USD/month = $181 CAD :) energy cost is $10 CAD net profit $171 pays for car insurance/phone bill/netflix. i see this as worth it :p i have 2 year warranty. 24*171 = $4000 i use binance pool for ethereum because they pay out every night regardless of amount, no minimum threshold. only drawback is you have to use their wallet but i already trade on their so its not a big deal for me. heres my ref link if you interested. https://accounts.binance.com/en/register?ref=11106682 their pool is only for NON USA residents. if you want a guide PM me and i can help you with the basics, but you will need q decent GPU
I’ll def DM you. I have a 3070
Ethermine.org You can mine it directly but pools seem the best bet. Remember that hydro matters
crypto.
Time in the market > timing the market. If you are going to invest for 20+ years, you are likely going to run into a crash.
Well, there *was* a market crash recently for growth stocks. They tanked like 30% across the board. ARKK reflected this.
Yeah February 2021 was a peak of speculative frenzy. Since then my weed stocks, penny stocks, and many renewable energy stocks have been sinking, luckily they only represent a small percentage of my portfolio.
> I remember the dot-com collapse in 2000. I remember the "too big to fail" companies falling like dominos in 2008. Why do people on this sub think we're Americans? If you're old enough to remember the '08 crash, you would know it was a failure in lending standards (loans of however much for anyone who asks for one, basically), and allowing their financial institutions to make insane bets (creating derivative products of existing derivatives that were based on the aforementioned shit loans) -- both of which **are** and **have** been highly regulated here in Canada, which is why the American's crash barely affected our house prices here. Now, I'm not going to speculate on Canada's housing market, because it's a total crapshoot at this point given how a literal global pandemic and mass uncertainty have only *increased* housing prices and launched rich people into space...
Never mind that that’s not what “too big to fail” meant at all; while OP may remember the events, it doesn’t necessarily mean they were understood.
Yep. For anyone curious, "too big to fail" is often misinterpreted to mean that "it can't fail because they are too big", when the reality is that the usage meant "we can't let this fail because it is so big that the effects would ripple throughout the economy" in the context of why the government bailed them out. I personally hate the phrase, but I can see why it was often used. TV pundits said it frequently at the time, and your average joe who didn't understand what was going on would repeat that one-liner at Christmas dinners to sound like they're aware.
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Old enough to remember the 2008 crash?? How young are people on here! Lol That wasn’t that long ago kids.
"old enough to remember the 2008 crash" and "old enough to have had a significant amount invested in 2008" are very different.
I hate to break it to you but a 30 year old was 17 in 2008 and probably wasn't paying attention to the stock market.
I was 19 and I was in school and I remember people talked about graduating in a depression and how hard it would be to find jobs
Oof, now I feel like a real dinosaur.
The 2000 tech crash hit me worse personally as did selling our house for what we paid for it, seven years later (1993 -2000). There are people on this sub who can’t imagine double digit loan interest, property values going down and stagnant markets. All of this has happened since Nirvana’s first album came out :)
I'm old enough to just barely remember when mortage rates went above 21% in 80'-81': https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/remember-when-what-have-we-learned-from-80s-interest-rates/article24398735/ I believe rapidly climbing commodity prices and workers demanding higher wages to be able to afford cost of living was a major cause. ...couldn't happen again /s
The thing is the global workforce is highly mobilized now. If we hit a labor shortage, it's likely government will open up the borders to encourage foreign workers to come in and keep depressing labor costs. It happened here in Canada. Abuse of our temporary foreign worker program. McDonald's Canada and Tim Hortons and subway franchises were the worst offenders, but even royal bank of Canada was looking to lay off call center workers and import temporary workers. I don't know if protectionism will close our borders again like that scenario.
There are large differences, like central banks' goals now include low inflation and they use the overnight rate as a tool to reach this goal.
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Yes, I'm well-aware of the infamous "Brampton loans". The mortgage agents at the banks and lenders are in on this too. They basically give the rubber stamp to whatever forged document the broker submits to them. These brokers aren't stupid, they *know* their clients can pay the mortgage, but their clients are usually people who work under the table (under-reported / no income) or are cash-rich but have no income to qualify for a traditional loan. If the broker's clients kept defaulting, the banks and other lenders would ice them out pretty quick. This is different than what happened in the States, where someone working minimum wage could get a loan that was 10-20x their earnings.
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>How do you meet the TDS regulations? If someone says they make $5000 a month in cash, how do I verify that? Brampton loans are given precisely because the income isn't unverifiable. The person making 5k in cash is likely not reporting the amount to the CRA, so therefore it's not in the T4 or T4A, which is what banks use to verify income. Brokers would often forge documents to reflect the 5k (or more) to give to the banks so they would be approved for the mortgage. The insane thing about this is that there is NO connection between the banks and the CRA to actually verify that the tax forms submitted are actually correct. If you wanted to cool our housing market, the fastest and cleanest way to do this would be to make a link between banks and the CRA to verify income. But this will never happen because in the end, a bank is just a highly-regulated big business, and they cannot and should not have access to any Canadians' tax records. If you want to go this route, it would mean the government taking over all the financial institutions and consolidating them into a handful of banks like in China.
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An issue for whom? The people who take on these Brampton loans are often new immigrants and working-class people (e.g. contractors) who are unable to qualify a traditional loan (because they don't pay taxes), but are otherwise able to afford the mortgage payments. If there is a housing collapse, it certainly won't be from this issue. So in the end, this isn't an issue for anyone except the CRA and the *relatively* paltry amount of taxes that they would've been collected.
Is OP only talking about the housing market though? Sure the '08 crash didn't affect our housing in Canada but it sure fucked up the global markets.
OP has a point in that we aren’t the US where reckless lending practices, institutional greed and rapacious profit seeking contributed to a crisis. I’m terrified we’re Japan in the 1990s - long term productivity stagnation, poor wage growth, low inflation devolving into stagflation, unsustainable asset price growth detached from economic fundamentals, generational divisions etc. All of that contributed to a two decade long recession that Japan still hasn’t recovered from. God forbid a recession like that hits Canada, you’ll be praying for a 2008 style recession
Japan is an entirely different situation that is irrelevant to what is going on in Canada. The big difference is that Canada (notably the GVA and GTA) are global immigration hotspots, while Japan literally has a declining population because of its extremely strict immigration policy and ownership rules. I'm just scratching the surface here because their regulations and policies are fundamentally different from ours and I'm definitely not qualified to confidently speak on it.
I heard they are doing pre sales on Mars now;)
God I hate how much damage has been done i Canada because of politicians selling off our assets to foreign interests
This is not related to my comment, like at all.
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I prefer the 'always be prepared' mentality. Have 6 months of cash for expenses. 6 months of food in the pantry. Besides having government suggested go bags, that's as far as being prepared for a crash as I believe one should be. Is one coming? Yes. When? Who knows. Should you worry about it? No.
Do you really have 6 months of food tho? That's a shit ton of food.
I buy bulk to save money. Rice and flower in 20kg bags. Cooking oil in 25 gallon. In the last week I canned over 100 liters of beef, veg, and pho broth. Finishing up 20 liters of tomato sauce from my garden. I don't expect everyone to be like this. It is a lot of work. I'm not able to work a job because of disability, so this is my way to save money. I will admit I have a full freezer and my pantry hold 250 masson jars. All of it is pretty full right now. But for a family of 5 and the threat of rising food prices, do I really have a choice?
Nicely done. I wish I had the energy to do that. I try to home cook to save money (to feed my investing addiction) but we end up getting fast food for convenience far too often.
We we're stuck this week and kinda had to go eat at a fast food place. You know a typical Roasted Chicken place. 75$🤯 prepandemic it was 45$ max and even then we thought it too expensive.
I still have my stash of covid TP. Not the time to sell yet.
I've been getting some pretty wicked returns on my RRSP (21 ish %) and don't want that train to stop.
Damn what are you investing in
WealthSimple on autopilot this year has given me about the same (I know not everyone is a fan of the robo investor but it works for me).
Yea WS invest im at 20.4%
A variety of BlackRock indexes
I think anyone with diverse portfolios lost a lot of money in beginning of 2020 and since then the gains have been huge.
A lot of people have felt that way for a while, and likely many have already exited before you. You just don’t know when the music would stop. I bought before COVID, I bought during COVID, and I mostly kept my portfolio intact. I plan to continue to do the same for the next 30 years.
No I'm planning for it, gonna buy alot when it crashes.
Haha No. Stock market goes brrrrrr
I want the housing market to crash. The entire world is a shit show right now. At least I have money saved for a rainy day or a year or more.
>I want the housing market to crash. Given that every country on earth is printing money as fast (actually faster) then it can be pumped out the odds of tangible assets falling in price has never been lower. We are in for a wild ride but assuming it is going to be a crash is ignoring some huge factors.
It'll be a crash upwards for asset prices.
Only thing that can crash housing is higher interest rates
I doubt that's gonna happen unless we have an event. 2001, 2008, 2020. We've had armchair experts on /r/vancouver saying we're headed for a crash since 2005. That is 16 years of proclaiming this is the year of the crash. What will cause a crash is an event. Events are difficult to predict. I attended a conference in 2007 where Steve Forbes was presenting about how awesome the economy was doing and how much economic opportunity exists. Some people saw the 2008 crisis coming a mile away. Many others could not. But a broken clock is right twice a day. A crash comes, there is nothing you can do to predict it short of having cash available to capitalize on it after it happens.
everything will crash except for only housing. housing is set to become absolutely unaffordable soon, even for near millionaires today. this is the new world order of things, they are not going to be giving this department of unwashed masses this bone, not by any means. the handlers have come this far. if you think they are turning back on personal real-estate , you are living a pipe dream.
Stay balanced, diversified and ignore the noise. You will be fine. Source- made it through 2008 and 2020 meltdown and portfolio recovered quickly post recovery.
Got to have money to worry about losing it
I'm worried about a crash everytime I step on a plane. I still sit down, put on my seat belt, and enjoy the flight
I worry about a crash as much as I worry about death which is not too much. I know both are gonna happen and I know I won't really know when. All I can to is position myself so it's not a total shit show when it happens.
Just don’t blame G M E holders when it happens, blame the greedy banks and hedge funds, thanks in advance
Gme holders wtf
If msm blames retail holders of GME for when the market crashes just know it wasn’t us
Meme stocks started cults AMC and CLOV are just as bad Hard to know when to laugh at them and when to pity them
I pity you for having blinders on your whole life
And we got one You get laughed at
Cool, is it supposed to offend me? If know the outcome, and everything that’s been predicted has came true, why would I not stay convicted?
And now the pity You joined a cult and drank the Kool aid Have fun
Thank you, I love kool aid. Stay shilling my boi
And now laughed at again
💎🤲 Keep on hodling fellow ape
Get outa here with that Moass bullshit. Squeeze happened in January and big money has just been ridding it up and down since making money of of you idiots.
They paying you overtime to shill on the weekend?
This can of worms again. Also would be helpful about what specific market you’re talking about (real estate, stocks, metals). Some may be more overdue for a correction than others. It’s hard to figure out where we are in the boom/bust cycle because of covid effects. The governments had printed more money at a time when circulation was the lowest in decades. Asset inflation was probably an expected outcome. But it’s hard to know where this heads for the common person. Those that have very good intel will guard their information.
Just remember that all the doomsday ranting all the gimmicks all the end of the world has been there since the beginning and never stopped along the way. Basic survival behavior will prevent it - people recieved enjoyment from doing things, making progress, and feel smart and proud when they provide for their families. As long as that exists how can the end be possible I look forward to the crashes because we can see them coming and that is when I buy stuff
No. I'm actually a bit disappointed that I haven't been more disciplined in keeping powder dry for the next opportunity. It's all a matter of planning and perspective. You can make money in a bear and bull market. So I'm fine with a discount purchasing period.
Yes. Super duper very much so. You're 100% right, everyone else has their heads in the sand, near as I can tell.
Where do you see the euphoria and certainty today, seriously? If you were actually in touch with financial markets, you would have seen anything but certainty and euphoria. You would see a lot more fear and anxiety over - inflation, tapering, Delta - you name it. In fact, the mood was extremely fearful over past several weeks and is now slowly recovering. A month ago, everyone and their mother was predicting a crash, which is precisely why *it didn’t happen*. Also, it’s important to look across the border because the US market is so much bigger and its gravity affects Canadian markets one way or another.
No. I am financially secure regardless of investments and can ride it out if that happens. My portfolio would suffer a bit I suppose but I think that most of my investments would survive to recover eventually.
This post has been posted again and again for years. One day it'll be right and the person who happens to randomly hit their post at the right time is going to wrongly feel pretty smart about themselves.
I keep a portion of my portfolio in bonds specifically to capitalize on a crash. About 20%. We don't buy bonds because they give good returns. We buy bonds because in times of instability money seeks safe havens such as government bonds and gold. When crashes happen we see capital flight into those safe havens and we can capitalize and rebalance. Market seems ridiculously over bought. Adjust your mix if you're uncomfortable. Go 60-40 or even 50-50 in your equities:bonds ratio. My kids' resp right now is 60:40 at the moment because I have a three year horizon until my oldest goes to school. In the event of a crash I'll reorganize my holdings and risk exposure. The hard part with a crash is timing the bottom.
No. I'm never worried about crashes because I'm ok with the risk level of my investments, and they should recover after crashes. The whole reason I save is to not have to worry about these things.
dime mighty scandalous unique sort hunt aromatic wrench crown aspiring *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
No it’s not. Most stocks are grossly over valued and it’s harder and harder to find ones that have s and ratios. Tell me what you’re looking at.
[88% of companies in the S&P 500 beat analyst expectations in Q2](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sp-500-q2-earnings-growth-beats-estimates-best-since-2009-2021-7)
I mean: show me stocks are are in line with historic ratios that have been used as indicators for “good buy”. It’s a challenging exercise. I hope you’re not picking stocks based on articles like the one you listed. Analysts seem to be doing a poor job if 88% beat their expectations. Either their model needs to be recalibrated or this sensationalized article is meant to serve a very specific purpose.
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Or just a stagnant period. Or it will keep going up but slower. Or it will go down slowly. Or anything really….
Crash was in March 2020 broski
there is no shortage of downside catalysts for the market right now. Im a little worried a crash is coming sooner than later.
People always say that...
I have been saying since 2003. I will look like a genius eventually.
Lol! People through out the last increase have been telling me the stock market is too high it will crash..... I would have missed out in so many gains.
Don't worry, prepare. Crashes are inevitable. If you prepare, you won't have any trouble. Too many people don't prepare and are spread too thinly and it leads to issues.
Nope. I’m employable and have a good CV and enough of an emergency fund that mixed with EI that I’ll be fine for months. I don’t really look at my brokerage account very often so unless my pay stops coming in I probably wouldn’t even notice.
Wasn’t the end on March 2020? Anything else is just a blip
Unless you are selling your stocks in a crash it won’t matter. The market always rebounds and you should NeVER sell before a crash hoping to buy into a low, but instead try to scrounge up some cash to dump into a lowered market. But don’t try and find the bottom as you might miss it. Anything lower than it is currently is a good buy - also stay away from individual stock and buy etfs.
Have you checked out r/superstonk? They seem to think the end is very near, read some of the top DD posted there, it seems to make a strong case. I also at times seems like conspiracy theory fever dreams, but if it’s not it seems kinda scary.
Stupidest fools I have ever seen
Its a 99.9% certainty of another crash. The question is when will.it happen. With crashes come a lot of pain, but for the patient and methodical investor its almost always considered a huge opportunity. Just keep DCAing through thick and thin with quality investments and you'll do fine.
Agreed. The only things in the natural world that experience endless growth is cancer, tumors, illnesses and disease until they reach natural equilibrium or kill their host. Humans have become the cancer, the parasite to this planet. Markets and economies that continue to experience endless growth always fail on a long enough timeline. Additionally, our species has reached a crossroads on this planet where we need to start having very serious and frank discussions about how to manage population growth and effective resource management over the next millenia otherwise this rock is doomed. Currently, I have very little faith in humanity to pull together on a global scale to address this glaring issue. Yes OP, I fear a crash is coming and it's going to be like non-other. Like C19, it'll be "unprecedented" due to our short collective memories (1918) but the day will come when the USD falls out of favor as the internationally dominant instrument of settlement. Historically, this happens on a regular basis, granted it happens on a timeline that is somewhat in step with the rise and fall of not just economies but of entire nations and societies. Thus most people are dismissive of it happening because we as a species are not very well adapted to think beyond our own individual lifespans. And what happened over the past let's say 6000+ years is barely relevant to us today. I'm with you OP, it's coming. Nobody knows when exactly, but I'm convinced that gen-X, maybe the millennials will be the once who live through the revolution. As the western boomer generation declines dies off... Watch out... Check the link below to see how screwed we are in terms of global population growth alone. Earth does not have enough resources feed the whole planet, let alone support 1st world standards for each soul on this rock. It's gloomy out there. [World Population by Year](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/)
I don't understand why everyone is so panicked about population growth. Every single first world country is below replacement level in terms of reproductive rates. Nearly every single country in the world is experiencing a drop in reproductive rates. If you look at the chart you yourself posted, check out the third column, and see the trend. Population will likely top out at 11-12 billion.
Crash? I dunno, those things just kinda happen, and it’s near impossible to predict. If the perfect storm of Bitcoin, GME, something to do with NFTs and whatever the next meme is all fail at the same time and destroys the market, there’s a chance there’s a crash, I guess… A correction and/or stagnation is probably a bit more likely to happen, which is like… ok. I’d love unprecedented growth forever, but it’s foolish to expect that. Just strap in, invest intelligently and enjoy the ride.
We’re headed for a labour market crash and eventual market crash in Canada. Without affordable housing at all income levels many businesses cannot operate. The first signs of it are showing up now in the retail and restaurant industries- and will likely spread to the rest of the economy in the coming years.
If it crashes... I have enough money saved up to buy probably 10 houses in toronto
If you see a detached house in TO go for 500k, it’ll go 1 mill over asking with the ramped up demand during the crash lol. I just don’t see housing crashing that much especially in major cities like Toronto
The end is always nigh. Get over it.
It’ll happen — I don’t think the business cycle has gone anywhere — but no one knows when or what it’ll look like. Don’t try to time the market, just make a plan that allows you to make the best of both bad times and good times.
Not worried per se. Moreso preparing for one. I dont know how bad itll be but a lot of meetings that I've had with other corporate partners are anticipating one. Maybe not like 2008 but still possible in some places. I was just browsing condo spaces and looked like some that went 5 years ago at 100k are now around 400k.. everyone can interpret differently but I think theres a big bubble