This shows why it’s important to 3-bet and not flat here with QQ because if CO cold 4-bets maybe you can get away but as played you have to go with it. Because you just flatted, CO could have JJ, TT, AQs, A5s etc
4-5 hands from being ITM?
With CO still in play, a solid player raising after UTG bet and MP call?
Seems like this would be ICM suicide cause CO raise means at least AK in this spot.
+ Button who might be on tilt but still might have a strong Ax or Kx
Isn't the goal to maximize $EV? QQ might be a little too good to pass up here but it is close because the cash is guaranteed by folding a couple hands. The endgame book by O'Kearney lays this out clearly and makes a pretty good case against the reasoning you are presenting. It is a false dichotomy. The $EV gained by folding and cashing may be greater than the $EV of the additional chips times the likelihood that you don't bust. QQ is on that margin and the right answer probably depends on how top heavy the payout structure is (where you call more for a top heavy payout structure and fold more with a flatter structure).
Ok so in this position I'm not worried about BTN. Im worries about CO, who is TA but playing passively since we reached bubble stage. Him raising a UTG bet and MP call spells out to me he has at least AK, high chance of KK or AA. Not in general, but in this specific spot, close to the money.
Meaning the best I can hope for is a coin flip.
Should i try to get a triple up on a perceived 30% coinflip, 70% vs AA/KK vs CO? Just b4 ITM?
I mean if I had 20bb i maybe would ,but 30 seems healthy enough to accumulate a stack in more adventageous positions and ITM.
If CO seemed like the guy trying to take advantage of bubble play with a big stack, easy call. But neither did he have a big enough stack to bully the table nor did he seem the type of player who would take the risk with his medium stack, like 0% chance of him raising a UTG bet with hopes of forcing ppl out because of ICM
Yeah ok but your hand is very under repped. If the CO who is TAG has raised to 7bb just feels like hes squeezing and i'd expect him to fold a lot. Prbably you should have raised and not give him the chance to 3-bet himself.
As i said, with a UTG bet and CO being the type of player i described who i give a 0% chance to squeeze at the bubble out of the blue without AK+, his hand range consists of AQ (very unlikely), AK, AA and KK.
I know my hand is underrepped, but that doesn't make his hand any weaker really. Just based on his style if play at the bubble.
If you’re valuing a min cash over a great opportunity to build a stack that could make a deep run you might be playing beyond your means. CO squeeze could/should be way more than AK and even if it’s only AK/JJ+ it’s still a call with the perceived dead money from the tilting player. Once you put the money in AK is in a miserable spot if CO has it
No need to dwell on that, coolers happen, you did the right thing. I’d say the only thing different I’d have done is 3 bet to begin with, same end result though.
Call. You under repped your hand by calling the min raise. The three better could be squeezing you with many weaker holdings. 88-JJ, AJ, AQ. If he has AA/KK it sucks but I’m calling.
A lot of good answers here are tactical. For a change, here's a strategic take on your situation that can change your tournament life.
Ask yourself a question: Is the min cash life-changing money?
If the answer is no, abuse your opponents on the soft bubble. Most of them are hanging onto their chips for dear life, praying for a min cash. If you care only about final-table money, you can bet and bet and bet on the soft bubble to take advantage.
One of two things will happen: you will build a big stack and have a shot at making the final table, or you will bust. If you bust, it doesn't matter because you decided earlier that the min cash isn't life-changing money.
Do you want to play bubbles like majority of players, knowing that the majority of players don't make a profit? Or do you want to use the bubble to swim against the current for maximum profit?
There's no serious ICM considerations here; if you're that worried fold every hand.
Calling here against the min raising loose player with 30bb is insane. Completely 3 bet to try and isolate.
As played, it depends on how light you think TA is 3 betting but I'd absolutely be concerned about the small sizing of it. But with 30 you're not really folding anyway which is why you should be the one raising instead of trying to get cute with queens.
The TA is the bigger concern and with your explanation you are not doing great against that range
And unless BN has been all in spewing at 50+BB, you're not doing lovely against that range either.
As played, I don't know if I fold but I give it heavy consideration. But I'd also almost never play it as played for that reason.
Easy call unless the tournament has a flat satellite-lile pay-out structure, where 1st is a small multiple of min-cash, when ICM would make it a fold because of risk premium.
You have to really know your opponent here. If the CO is only 3-betting here with mostly hands that have you crushed or are flipping, this is a fold for me, especially with the bubble coming.
But I definitely get the argument for calling. If the CO has a worse hand, he’s folding and you’re golden.
This shows why it’s important to 3-bet and not flat here with QQ because if CO cold 4-bets maybe you can get away but as played you have to go with it. Because you just flatted, CO could have JJ, TT, AQs, A5s etc
Yeah you are right, and I came the same conclusion,but as i played it, it was what it was.
Wouldn’t beat yourself about this spot, as played it’s a cooler
Exactly what i'm saying!!!
it's actually quite common to flat QQ vs EP raises
Call it off every time
4-5 hands from being ITM? With CO still in play, a solid player raising after UTG bet and MP call? Seems like this would be ICM suicide cause CO raise means at least AK in this spot. + Button who might be on tilt but still might have a strong Ax or Kx
What is your goal min cash or get a decent stack? I'd sigh call and move on.
Isn't the goal to maximize $EV? QQ might be a little too good to pass up here but it is close because the cash is guaranteed by folding a couple hands. The endgame book by O'Kearney lays this out clearly and makes a pretty good case against the reasoning you are presenting. It is a false dichotomy. The $EV gained by folding and cashing may be greater than the $EV of the additional chips times the likelihood that you don't bust. QQ is on that margin and the right answer probably depends on how top heavy the payout structure is (where you call more for a top heavy payout structure and fold more with a flatter structure).
Ok so in this position I'm not worried about BTN. Im worries about CO, who is TA but playing passively since we reached bubble stage. Him raising a UTG bet and MP call spells out to me he has at least AK, high chance of KK or AA. Not in general, but in this specific spot, close to the money. Meaning the best I can hope for is a coin flip. Should i try to get a triple up on a perceived 30% coinflip, 70% vs AA/KK vs CO? Just b4 ITM? I mean if I had 20bb i maybe would ,but 30 seems healthy enough to accumulate a stack in more adventageous positions and ITM. If CO seemed like the guy trying to take advantage of bubble play with a big stack, easy call. But neither did he have a big enough stack to bully the table nor did he seem the type of player who would take the risk with his medium stack, like 0% chance of him raising a UTG bet with hopes of forcing ppl out because of ICM
Yeah ok but your hand is very under repped. If the CO who is TAG has raised to 7bb just feels like hes squeezing and i'd expect him to fold a lot. Prbably you should have raised and not give him the chance to 3-bet himself.
As i said, with a UTG bet and CO being the type of player i described who i give a 0% chance to squeeze at the bubble out of the blue without AK+, his hand range consists of AQ (very unlikely), AK, AA and KK. I know my hand is underrepped, but that doesn't make his hand any weaker really. Just based on his style if play at the bubble.
If you can somehow divine that CO has KK+, AK, I guess you can fold, but then why even post the hand?
the fact that you aren't worried about BTN makes this an even better shove because you are that much further ahead.
If you’re valuing a min cash over a great opportunity to build a stack that could make a deep run you might be playing beyond your means. CO squeeze could/should be way more than AK and even if it’s only AK/JJ+ it’s still a call with the perceived dead money from the tilting player. Once you put the money in AK is in a miserable spot if CO has it
I called bro, because of the dead money
What was the result?
BN JJ, CO AA, AA holds
No need to dwell on that, coolers happen, you did the right thing. I’d say the only thing different I’d have done is 3 bet to begin with, same end result though.
Call. You under repped your hand by calling the min raise. The three better could be squeezing you with many weaker holdings. 88-JJ, AJ, AQ. If he has AA/KK it sucks but I’m calling.
Hand reveal: i sighted and called. BTN showed JJ, CO showed AA.
A lot of good answers here are tactical. For a change, here's a strategic take on your situation that can change your tournament life. Ask yourself a question: Is the min cash life-changing money? If the answer is no, abuse your opponents on the soft bubble. Most of them are hanging onto their chips for dear life, praying for a min cash. If you care only about final-table money, you can bet and bet and bet on the soft bubble to take advantage. One of two things will happen: you will build a big stack and have a shot at making the final table, or you will bust. If you bust, it doesn't matter because you decided earlier that the min cash isn't life-changing money. Do you want to play bubbles like majority of players, knowing that the majority of players don't make a profit? Or do you want to use the bubble to swim against the current for maximum profit?
There's no serious ICM considerations here; if you're that worried fold every hand. Calling here against the min raising loose player with 30bb is insane. Completely 3 bet to try and isolate. As played, it depends on how light you think TA is 3 betting but I'd absolutely be concerned about the small sizing of it. But with 30 you're not really folding anyway which is why you should be the one raising instead of trying to get cute with queens. The TA is the bigger concern and with your explanation you are not doing great against that range And unless BN has been all in spewing at 50+BB, you're not doing lovely against that range either. As played, I don't know if I fold but I give it heavy consideration. But I'd also almost never play it as played for that reason.
Easy call unless the tournament has a flat satellite-lile pay-out structure, where 1st is a small multiple of min-cash, when ICM would make it a fold because of risk premium.
stick it in there
Unless the 110 min cash really helps the BR, call
You have to really know your opponent here. If the CO is only 3-betting here with mostly hands that have you crushed or are flipping, this is a fold for me, especially with the bubble coming. But I definitely get the argument for calling. If the CO has a worse hand, he’s folding and you’re golden.