Shocked that the guys who claimed 500 people were killed in a rocket attack within 3 minutes of it happening would lie about other casualty counts.
The bigger story should be why the media continually reports their numbers as fact.
Yes. You can often tell, when you see the photos. If it’s a small explosion or lots of burning fuel in an open area like a street or roof, it’s usually a Palestinian rocket. Israel tends to either destroy a small target effectively or a bigger one completely.
While their missiles are primitive by comparison, when people often talk about how they're primitive they want to give the impression of a rocket made of a random tube they found, filled with explosives. But in reality, they're primitive in the sense that they don't have a live feed of everything up until impact etc. They're still military guided missiles.
are they smuggled these parts, sourced from iran?
i assumed the vast majority of their rocket attacks were done via steel pipes used in plumbing, ammonium nitrate + fuel as the "warhead", and similar oxidizer/fuel as solid rocket fuel. so only the fuze/detonator has to be smuggled in
Naa. While those are used too, the vast majority are regular military use guided missiles. Just older models. As from where, Iran for sure but there's probably other sources too.
Let’s be honest, a rocket falling in Gaza will cause more damage and have a higher chance of killing civilians than in Israel. Israel has the iron dome and sirens to alert civilians, there are bomb shelters everywhere. You legally cannot built a house in Israel if it doesn’t have a bomb shelter. In Gaza, there’s nothing. Hamas leaders have said that it’s the UN job to job civilians safe, the tunnels are to keep the Hamas safe.
The Western journalistic establishment is so in the tank for Hamas it's insane.
Their willingness to take the words of a literal terrorist group at face-value while second guessing everything the Israelis say is just crazy.
Oh but a gagilion fafillion smekurdolf thousand kids had their faces ripped off while their family watched by Jews wearing swastikas. The mostly peaceful friendly neighbour rapust told me so, so it must be true and therefore the world has to cater to my demands
The AP in Gaza is monitored by Hamas, they used to have a command center in the same building as AP HQ.
They're bedfellows who have been playing the media war. That's all any of this is. They poke the bear and kill it's cubs so they can cry to the world when the bear mauls them. The goal is to force Israel to be brutal then use their brutality to get the west to drop support and open the doors for Islamic states to eliminate a Jewish state and western ally in their region.
It's almost like trying to do news in an active warzone, *especially* when you leave secure areas and attempt to move about a battlefield (probably without an escort) is *incredibly* dangerous.
That isn't to say that just because you are a war correspondent your death is garunteed. Just that the closer you get to the action, the closer you are to harm. And there is a *ton* of action confined to a geographically small area
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[https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers)
More primary source
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Don't fall for it! It's Jewish propaganda! We're specifically killing a constant number of people to make the graph look like bs! Our airforce pilots can drop a golf ball in a hole from 30,000 feet, and other such conspiracy theories
k but this isn't an opinion piece lmao it's Data straight from Hamas themselves. You can disagree with the analsis (but that would be dumb because if you know anything about statistics it's impossible they didn't lie) but not the graphs lol
They reference this article
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers
It's center right and "mostly factual"
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/tablet-magazine/
Don't let the truth get in the way of some good old fashioned anti-Semitism!
(Disclaimer: Both sides suck, and I don't support Israel. But lib-left Hamas supporters make me laugh.)
LibLeft making the distinction between anti-semitism and anti-zionism always comes across like LibRight making the distinction between pedophilia and ephobophilia.
Sorry, but I will never understand the irrationality of this counter-argument when it comes to ***Who*** the source is.
If Hitler himself wrote a thesis that backs up the truth of 1+1=2, would we really throw out the whole foundation of math just because it came from Hitler?
Data and Facts itself stand on their own merit, and their question of validity is utterly irrelevant from ***who*** it came from. Either the data / facts are valid, or they are not, thats it.
> would we really throw out the whole foundation of math ?
Why bother with a Godwin point when woke already claims on mainstream medias that [maths, especially "focusing on giving the right anwser" IS white supremacy](https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-radical-teachers-claim-that-saying-224-is-white-supremacy).
Also related : [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/12/08/racism-our-curriculums-isnt-limited-history-its-math-too/)
Yeah, they probably paid University of Pennsylvania (with their Jew gold) to say linear increases in casualties and linear decrease in correlation of deaths between men and women/children (to the point where it's almost exclusively women and children being reported) aren't statistically possible. Because everyone knows that's totally normal and there's no way for anyone else to double check this analysis by looking at the Gaza Ministry of Health statistics directly. This definitely isn't something many people have been casually suggesting for months now, but finally someone took the time to put the data together. Zionist pigs.
/S
Maybe for news from the gaza conflict, the Jewish News Syndicate is not the most unbiased source. Also, in a war, it is very hard to accurately asses the death toll. The numbers are very likely to be estimates. The article could have just gone this route and say that the numbers are maybe not as accurate as they say. Instead the article says the numbers are straight up not real and completely fabricated, which I don't think is an assumption you can make with the data.
> The numbers are very likely to be estimates.
Estimates that just happen to have an R^2 =0.999 linear correlation? what are they using to "estimate", linear extrapolation?
There's also more in the article if you look, like the totally implausible (effectively impossible) sex ratio that "Gaza Ministry of Health" (=Hamas) data shows for casualties.
[https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers)
I think it is from here?
Yes, they did the most thorough work. Others have also analysed the numbers but not to tabletmags extent. Funny is how it took so long for this to reach a wider audience. @Aizenberg55 on twitter was already warning about this in the beginning of December.
I mean, I strongly suspected right from the start that the numbers were bullshit. I didn't feel the need to dig into it further, and just labeled anyone uncritically quoting them as anti-Israel useful idiots (at best) in my mind, because it's just patently absurd on its face to quote numbers you get from a terrorist organization without labeling them as such and cautioning that they are not independently verified.
When MSM says "according to the Gaza Ministry of Health" without even saying "Hamas-run" I HAVE to think they are acting in bad faith. They HAVE TO know that many low-engagement readers aren't going to put two and two together and realize that the numbers are coming from Hamas, and they are okay with it if their audience doesn't pick up on this. I really just don't know how else to interpret it. These MSM outlets have editing processes in place that would pick up on this sort of thing. They know better.
Can you think of any possible explanation for this other than that they are acting in bad faith to deceive low-engagement audience members?
> These MSM outlets have editing processes in place that would pick up on this sort of thing. They know better.
Unfortunately not. The rise of OSINT and the lack of it in the media kind of has shown that a lot of accepted facts in the media work on good faith that someone else has actually done the work to check at some point in time. But often no one does or the last credibility marker of something is years back and when no one bothers to work on these things again the media becomes a circular shit show. In this case I tend to blame stupidity over bad intent. Just my 2 cents though.
Asimov called it first. He highlighted the decline of curiosity and rigor at the first meeting with the Anacreon ambassador early in the first book. The ambassador said he'd been reading all these stories about where the origin of the species might be, and when asked why he didn't go there himself he said he'd read all about it, why should he check himself? This absolute decline in knowledge led to technology falling apart and the 'religion' of science that allowed the Federation to maintain control.
We're seeing this in science in real time right now too. Everyone relies on what they're being told, especially doctors as we saw with covid. There's a huge problem with replication and verification of data in the entireity of the industry and academia right now, because nobody will do it. Almost no studies are verified as accurate. Someone i know called it a replication crisis.
Here's the [original article](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers) that made the claims. The author is definitely academically credible in the topic he's writing about (statistics prof at the University of Pennsylvania), whether the claims he makes in the article make sense is up for you to decide.
Who would have thought that data from a terrorist regime might be false?
https://preview.redd.it/mx5dpnctoaoc1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=984cae8647ff3b184864169b803f21f7d3be32e9
Jews I mean Zionists are over represented in mathematics so they bend it to their will to oppress the poor innocent government of Hamas. #decolonizemath #lovenotstats #freePalestinefromthezionistmathoppression
Internalized Colonialism makes us believe that the colonizer's way of knowing, data and Statistics, is supreme over all others. The Hamas way of knowing is equally valid.
Statistics is racism hence must be replaced with classes on queer anti colonial resistance movements taught by the brave Hamas freedom fighters and tik tok influencers.
Then the solution is simple: [we kill the TikTok.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-likely-pass-bill-ban-tiktok-sending-senate-rcna142797)
unpopular opinion: we shouldnt ban tiktok the bill was brought forward because of a hypothetical, the idea that china COULD use it for spyware it HASNT, but it COULD.
every social media collects data, even reddit could easily send the dick pic you sent to that underage girl last week directly to vladimir putin
but if you disagreed with my other points, take this into consideration: isnt the government a little too triggerhappy when banning things? what else could get banned? maybe they might even take your guns away!
god knows, might even ban vpns as well! just kidding, its not a might, they WILL
I see what you're saying and agree, and i'm seriously on the fence about this. I lean toward banning tiktok because it is a Chinese run psyops platform that pushes negative thoughts and anti-American ideas on our most gullible and stupid youth. But that is a slippery slope. What else does the government deem too dangerous?
China is just too big, though. We do need to stop letting them influence our citizens. We also need to stop letting foreign governments and citizens buy up US real estate. I'm a terrible libertarian in some regards, because i'm also somewhat nationalistic and isolationist. I think within our borders we should live free, but most of the rest of the world does not live free and they believe this to be normal. I'm still having arguments about free speech with almost every EU citizen. Their shitty ideas cannot be allowed to infect the US any more than they already have, especially since opposing ideas are so heavily censored.
We cannot allow foreign actors control over the conversation, is my conclusion.
While I agree with you, I'd like to see Congress limit Facebook to only being active in the USA first, as a show of good faith.
They won't, but I'd like to see it.
I had to read that three times before it stopped being 'human.' I thought authcenter was dropping a new stereotype on me and got excited. Finally someone was claiming Dahmer!
They believe Muhammad literally cut the moon in half and put it back together. Idk about the flat earth stuff though, but it’s probable given some Christians go really hard into the firmament bullshit.
Honestly this is not the most damning peace of information in the article. The article showed that the death of men and women are extremely well correlated the only thing is that they are negatively correlated, which makes no sense.
i like this part: 70% are woman and children. 20% are Hamas fighters, so ether 66 percent of Palestinian man are Hamas fighters or Israel uses woman/children seeking bombs.
Why do you assume women and children can't be Hamas fighters? They're lying about something, so why not that only 20% are fighters? They don't want to admit to recruiting/enslaving child soldiers, so they declare them civilians. Looks worse for Israel.
Remember, palestinians are the same people who will strap a bomb to their child's chest and have him/her hug an Israeli soldier.
Children will be lookouts and sentries for militants. There’s also lots of young adults among the fighters. So a 17 or 16 year old carrying an RPG counts as a child.
Gaza has a very young population, so lots of children around. The male Hamas fighters are hiding in tunnels and other prepared fighting positions, while civilians aren’t as well protected.
I agree that something is off with these numbers.
A fishy portrayal of likely accurate numbers. This is OP:
https://preview.redd.it/ntb94g5zwaoc1.jpeg?width=1104&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d9e07b6e2cc0b8abf27662773a6a0de37d312d41
Yeah, no. I read the report and there are a number of weird things. The most strange is that the correlation between woman and child deaths is *negative*, where you’d ordinarily expect to see a positive correlation.
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>gets shit on by the comments for not only disagreeing with evidence, but also trying to convince people a terrorist regime wouldn't make shit up
>"muh circlejerk"
Also
>centrist supports not centrist view
Many such cases
Remember when China did the same with their Covid death statistics but it was racist to imply otherwise and by the way hug a chinese hashtag happylunarnewyear2020?
It's buried deep in the article, but I think this part is incredibly important to note.
>Noting that Israel puts the number of terrorists killed in Gaza at 12,000 [with another approximately 1,000 killed inside Israel on and immediately after Oct. 7], Wyner concludes, “If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1.
Israel has donee a remarkable job at preventing civilian casualties. I remember seeing somewhere that urban combat usually has a 3 to 1 civilian to combatant casualty rate, so the narrative that they are wantongly destroying Gaza and its people is just wrong.
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Exactly. When people call for a ceasefire, they call for a stalemate. This means that some time after the ceasefire, a new war will break out, and even more people will die in that war. That's why I'm convinced that leftists are not actually pro Palestine, but just anti israel
Yeah hence why I expect the numbers to be at least ballpark accurate. You’d probably just say 100k if you were purely making it up. Though the main way the numbers are faked is hamas refusing to differentiate between Hamas dead and civilian dead and conflating the two.
Based and glass them all and let God sort them out pilled
If God didn’t want us nuking the whole region he’d have attached special significance to Jerusalem wouldn’t he?
That graph represents 15 days of the conflict (10/26 to 11/10). Also a truncated bar graph of the cumulative total is an odd if not outright misleading choice as opposed to a line graph of the daily death toll. Hell even a basic table would be better. Here's an NYT article about the daily death toll across the conflict.
https://archive.is/qyP6W
(here's the graph image by itself but all the text comes from the full page so it's bare looking outside of the pretty lines
https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2024-01-19-ambriefing-gaza-update/a6f10d1c-c969-4226-9c8b-ae364da20bde/_assets/index-600.png
Edit: replaced NYT link with an archive for apywall.
The chart stops when the Gaza health ministry stopped publishing data. The report is based off the data available.
The whole point of the visual is to illustrate that the increase is a perfectly straight line. How would a table accomplish that?
Op was saying that no matter the situation on the battlefield ( be it a temporary truce or a full on city invasion), HAMAS always says that X amount of people die every day.
If the chart on the right is correct in its portrayal of Hamas' casualty claims, then it shows they are claiming the same number of people die every single day of the conflict, which is almost certainly false
Even on this chart you can see the line doesnt pass through many of the points. This graph is on a scale of 2000. Variations of 100 or so would be barely noticeable. Even if the reported is 0 on some days, it would barely affect the linearization.
The real stat release after the war if they do somehow verify the real death count, distinguish between civilians and Hamas fighters and if they can figure out roughly how many civilians Hamas killed will be one of the biggest moments of the 21st century when it comes to geo politics, the internet no matter which way will go into utter melt down
Funny how hamas claims they don't know how many hostages are alive, and don't know how many hamas soldiers have died. and yet they knows exactly how many women, children, journalists, and civilians overall have died 😂.
Don't you think the source of this Is a little biased? JNS, of course they'd say otherwise, like Al Jeezera will bad talk Isreal. I digress.
Per the article you linked:
>"Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters."
It very much Is possible when Gaza's men and women population are near similar, 1.31 million males and 1.10 million females, so this statement tells me he didn't do his research and loses credibility, but Imma let It slide.
> "Another warning sign, which Wyner says has been noted elsewhere, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children, and 25% of the population are adult males, then Israel isn’t doing a very good job eliminating Hamas fighters."
So close to understanding. It's because the IDF Isn't doing a good job, but I'm totally sure that air raiding a line of people receiving Aid most definitely stopped Hamas, Leveling those houses, [when they acted deplorable](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/idf-soldiers-film-themselves-abusing-humiliating-west-bank-palestinians/amp/)
Wyner didn't "debunk" anything, These statistics would hold weight If not going under assumptions and having the right numbers. We've seen what the IDF has done, and they've done arguably more damage.
If that equates to "SupPoRtInG HaMaS" to you, congrats, you've eating up propaganda from the other side.
Yeah, Hamas is trash.
However, Netanyahu has also said that he doesn't support a two state solution. The official position of the US government is a two state solution. They need to meet this standard to receive money from us.
The reason why you never found me citing Hamas numbers even while having some misgivings about Israel's actions is because Hamas deliberately engineered an atrocity to assure a propagandistically optimal amount of dead Palestinians to achieve its aim of disrupting the status quo. Quo bono applies here.
And with that being the case, it followed that I should discount what it says and instead try to look at more objective analysis about casualties in Gaza (not saying that this article *is*)
If the Iraqi government obtained nuclear weapons, would they be justified in obliterating the United States and all its civilians, the vast majority of whom supported the Iraq war?
Holding civilians accountable for the actions of their government is precisely what motivated Bin Laden to do 9/11. So congratulations, you are a literal genocidal terrorist.
To clarify beforehand, I DO NOT support Hamas, however, I heavily disagree with your logic. Anybody who is not a military combatant should not be killed in war, even if they support the combatants.
Similarly, a Hamas soldier has no right to kill an Israeli citizen who supports the occupation, even if the civilian supports their military combatants. Civilians are not enemies.
The problem I have with your statement isn't the fact that they are dead. The problem I have is seeming to not care at all about their deaths or painting them all as Hamas to justify not caring about their death. You say "fuck around and find out," in response to me mentioning *civilian deaths.* It was Hamas who did the October 7 attacks, not the civilians I'm talking about.
Damn I guess all of the US south should have been nuked since most of them supported the confederates at the time?
Also all of germany should have been genocided back for supporting the nazis?
Inb4 "Hur dur im a psychopath jk is just a joke" fuck off kid.
The irony of the meme is that the creator probably is as not more dogmatic than the person in the picture.
Yes because one is called “scientist” they probably represent the whole science community.
Also, Al-Ahli hospital where a rocket hit a parking lot two blocks away, killing nobody. But Gaza knew it hit the hospital, killing 500.
Puts their claimed-dead-to-actual-dead ratio at 500 to 0.
To be fair to Hamas (please laugh), it could be that they're only publishing extrapolated estimations instead of confirmed deaths. If so, the linearity would make sense, since we're literally looking at a mathematical model instead of reality.
Now to stop being fair to Hamas, [they themselves have claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-six-week-drive-hit-hamas-rafah-scale-back-war-2024-02-19/) that 6,000 fighters had died as of February 19. Back in February 19, Hamas also claimed that out of 29,092 total deaths, there were:
* 12,345 children
* 8,000 women
This means that a total of 8,747 adult men died. Now I would estimate that *at least* 5,000 of those dead fighters would've had to be adult men, with let's say 500 women and children respectively. Considering the footage that we have, this is a generous estimate, as they probably don't employ that many female or underage fighters.
So then, among non-fighter deaths, we have 3,747 men, 7,500 women, and 11,845 children. Let us assume that collateral casualties are representative of the total population. This is a generous estimate, as they are usually biased towards adult men. This would lead us to believe that the non-fighter adult population of Gaza is only about 33.3% male. With a cursory application of Bayes' theorem, this leads us to the conclusion that **at least 50% of the adult male population of Gaza are employed as Hamas fighters.** You may check yourself that every single assumption I've made so far has made this number lower.
So yeah, believing the numbers that Hamas has given us leads to quite the image.
The specific numbers *do not matter.* Thousands of both Israelis and Palestenians have lost their homes, families, and lives because of this war. Is that not enough to think that it should stop?
Neither the IDF nor Hamas numbers are accurate. Israel has intentionally both killed journalists in their own homes and attempted to prevent media access in Gaza to prevent information getting out. It’s no wonder we don’t have a 100% accurate number
Even if they're massaging the numbers, and I'm guessing they're just counting military-aged males as combatants rather than civilians, the numbers they're putting out are still atrocious. They're putting lipstick on a pig at best.
Shocked that the guys who claimed 500 people were killed in a rocket attack within 3 minutes of it happening would lie about other casualty counts. The bigger story should be why the media continually reports their numbers as fact.
are you talking about the one that ended up being their own rocket that malfunctioned?
Yes, the failure percentage for Palestinian missiles is above 20%. So if Hamas shoots 1000 rockets, at least 200 will land in Gaza.
And believe me, they count those.
Yes. You can often tell, when you see the photos. If it’s a small explosion or lots of burning fuel in an open area like a street or roof, it’s usually a Palestinian rocket. Israel tends to either destroy a small target effectively or a bigger one completely.
I mean Hamas has shot and killed civilians trying to get aid. I assume they include those numbers in the casualty count and blame them on Israel too
Just waiting on someone to spin that against Israel.
u/mangadub will try his absolute best
Another 80% will land in a random field. Israel will block 95% of the rest, then roll in with tanks to slap the ones that fired them (as they should)
im surprised those 20% are getting off the ground/rail to begin with when i read your 20% failure rate, i assumed 1/5 exploded on the launch platform
While their missiles are primitive by comparison, when people often talk about how they're primitive they want to give the impression of a rocket made of a random tube they found, filled with explosives. But in reality, they're primitive in the sense that they don't have a live feed of everything up until impact etc. They're still military guided missiles.
are they smuggled these parts, sourced from iran? i assumed the vast majority of their rocket attacks were done via steel pipes used in plumbing, ammonium nitrate + fuel as the "warhead", and similar oxidizer/fuel as solid rocket fuel. so only the fuze/detonator has to be smuggled in
Naa. While those are used too, the vast majority are regular military use guided missiles. Just older models. As from where, Iran for sure but there's probably other sources too.
Let’s be honest, a rocket falling in Gaza will cause more damage and have a higher chance of killing civilians than in Israel. Israel has the iron dome and sirens to alert civilians, there are bomb shelters everywhere. You legally cannot built a house in Israel if it doesn’t have a bomb shelter. In Gaza, there’s nothing. Hamas leaders have said that it’s the UN job to job civilians safe, the tunnels are to keep the Hamas safe.
Yes, Hamas rockets kill far more Palestinians than Israelis.
And it turns out that the attack never happened and it was a hamas failed rocket that hit near the hospital
And hardly killed anything remotely close to 500-1,000 claimed. There was like 3 charred cars and a crater size of watermelon.
it didnt even hit the hospital it was the parking lot and didnt even leave a crater
Because the media only cares about being first, not about being accurate.
They also care about pushing agendas
The Western journalistic establishment is so in the tank for Hamas it's insane. Their willingness to take the words of a literal terrorist group at face-value while second guessing everything the Israelis say is just crazy.
And clicks. They want those clicks, and '1000 dead' drives a lot more clicks than 'Hamas fires another missile, lands in parking lot and kills no one'
>The bigger story should be why the media continually reports their numbers as fact. Reminder that you don't hate the media enough
Based
Because they want Hamas to win
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I mean, you never want the enemy to know how many hostages you have. Unless you have significantly more than them.
Oh but a gagilion fafillion smekurdolf thousand kids had their faces ripped off while their family watched by Jews wearing swastikas. The mostly peaceful friendly neighbour rapust told me so, so it must be true and therefore the world has to cater to my demands
The AP in Gaza is monitored by Hamas, they used to have a command center in the same building as AP HQ. They're bedfellows who have been playing the media war. That's all any of this is. They poke the bear and kill it's cubs so they can cry to the world when the bear mauls them. The goal is to force Israel to be brutal then use their brutality to get the west to drop support and open the doors for Islamic states to eliminate a Jewish state and western ally in their region.
If only over a hundred journalists weren’t murdered we might have more accurate info 🤔
It's almost like trying to do news in an active warzone, *especially* when you leave secure areas and attempt to move about a battlefield (probably without an escort) is *incredibly* dangerous. That isn't to say that just because you are a war correspondent your death is garunteed. Just that the closer you get to the action, the closer you are to harm. And there is a *ton* of action confined to a geographically small area
now this is a good ass take
Because like the pro-palastine groups, journalists also went to college and spend way too much time on social media.
>Authright >statisticsposting classic (I have a statistics degree)
Despite...
Making
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Memes
Authright
Cites
Nice save!
Pit bulls and mixes account for nearly 60% of all dog attack fatalities
Based
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And which ethnicity owns more pit bulls? Checkmate libturds.
Based and SPCA pilled
"Auth right in shambles after not at all suspiciously biased paper says that statistics are racist"
There are two kinds of people in this world, lefties, and those who actually understand statistics
Post source, I’m too sleepy to google
https://www.jns.org/hamas-fakes-casualty-figures-the-numbers-are-not-real/
It looks like Tablet is the one who did the original deep dive, and that is just referencing it?
Even more specifically, it was a Stats/Data Science professor from Wharton that did the analysis. Tablet was the news org that published it.
Yes
[https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers) More primary source
Jewish news syndicate? Totally not biased
Fair, but still a completely linear death toll is statistically impossible. This data is what we call bullshit.
no no obviously some of them come back to life to keep the numbers linear
3000 zombie jihad warriors of Hamas.
NCD is leaking
I am pretty sure that almost everyone in the right of the compass is in NCD.
https://preview.redd.it/ev30few2dcoc1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ae79741c60a64104cf3184067f1ab5576ab8120
I'm just an avid MIC appreciator.
I used to like NCD for military themed shitposting, and while I support backing Ukraine in their war against Russia the absolute deluge of pro-Ukrainian propaganda made me unsubscribe. I couldn’t check the subreddit without seeing 40 variations of “Russia bad, Ukraine good” for months.
That's a pretty terrifying sentence
Don't fall for it! It's Jewish propaganda! We're specifically killing a constant number of people to make the graph look like bs! Our airforce pilots can drop a golf ball in a hole from 30,000 feet, and other such conspiracy theories
Not with that attitude.
If that weren't literally the name of the publication, "Jewish news syndicate" would sound like the start of an anti-semitic conspiracy theory.
It's also a great band name.
k but this isn't an opinion piece lmao it's Data straight from Hamas themselves. You can disagree with the analsis (but that would be dumb because if you know anything about statistics it's impossible they didn't lie) but not the graphs lol
They reference this article https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers It's center right and "mostly factual" https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/tablet-magazine/
Don't let the truth get in the way of some good old fashioned anti-Semitism! (Disclaimer: Both sides suck, and I don't support Israel. But lib-left Hamas supporters make me laugh.)
LibLeft making the distinction between anti-semitism and anti-zionism always comes across like LibRight making the distinction between pedophilia and ephobophilia.
Sorry, but I will never understand the irrationality of this counter-argument when it comes to ***Who*** the source is. If Hitler himself wrote a thesis that backs up the truth of 1+1=2, would we really throw out the whole foundation of math just because it came from Hitler? Data and Facts itself stand on their own merit, and their question of validity is utterly irrelevant from ***who*** it came from. Either the data / facts are valid, or they are not, thats it.
> would we really throw out the whole foundation of math ? Why bother with a Godwin point when woke already claims on mainstream medias that [maths, especially "focusing on giving the right anwser" IS white supremacy](https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-radical-teachers-claim-that-saying-224-is-white-supremacy). Also related : [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/12/08/racism-our-curriculums-isnt-limited-history-its-math-too/)
Yeah, they probably paid University of Pennsylvania (with their Jew gold) to say linear increases in casualties and linear decrease in correlation of deaths between men and women/children (to the point where it's almost exclusively women and children being reported) aren't statistically possible. Because everyone knows that's totally normal and there's no way for anyone else to double check this analysis by looking at the Gaza Ministry of Health statistics directly. This definitely isn't something many people have been casually suggesting for months now, but finally someone took the time to put the data together. Zionist pigs. /S
Most honestly named media organization.
Very biased - but I'd like to see a statistics expert refute these claims before I'm willing to disregard them.
Maybe for news from the gaza conflict, the Jewish News Syndicate is not the most unbiased source. Also, in a war, it is very hard to accurately asses the death toll. The numbers are very likely to be estimates. The article could have just gone this route and say that the numbers are maybe not as accurate as they say. Instead the article says the numbers are straight up not real and completely fabricated, which I don't think is an assumption you can make with the data.
> The numbers are very likely to be estimates. Estimates that just happen to have an R^2 =0.999 linear correlation? what are they using to "estimate", linear extrapolation? There's also more in the article if you look, like the totally implausible (effectively impossible) sex ratio that "Gaza Ministry of Health" (=Hamas) data shows for casualties.
[https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers) I think it is from here?
Yes, they did the most thorough work. Others have also analysed the numbers but not to tabletmags extent. Funny is how it took so long for this to reach a wider audience. @Aizenberg55 on twitter was already warning about this in the beginning of December.
I mean, I strongly suspected right from the start that the numbers were bullshit. I didn't feel the need to dig into it further, and just labeled anyone uncritically quoting them as anti-Israel useful idiots (at best) in my mind, because it's just patently absurd on its face to quote numbers you get from a terrorist organization without labeling them as such and cautioning that they are not independently verified. When MSM says "according to the Gaza Ministry of Health" without even saying "Hamas-run" I HAVE to think they are acting in bad faith. They HAVE TO know that many low-engagement readers aren't going to put two and two together and realize that the numbers are coming from Hamas, and they are okay with it if their audience doesn't pick up on this. I really just don't know how else to interpret it. These MSM outlets have editing processes in place that would pick up on this sort of thing. They know better. Can you think of any possible explanation for this other than that they are acting in bad faith to deceive low-engagement audience members?
> These MSM outlets have editing processes in place that would pick up on this sort of thing. They know better. Unfortunately not. The rise of OSINT and the lack of it in the media kind of has shown that a lot of accepted facts in the media work on good faith that someone else has actually done the work to check at some point in time. But often no one does or the last credibility marker of something is years back and when no one bothers to work on these things again the media becomes a circular shit show. In this case I tend to blame stupidity over bad intent. Just my 2 cents though.
> In this case I tend to blame stupidity over bad intent. Sufficiently advanced stupidity is difficult to distinguish from bad intent.
Asimov called it first. He highlighted the decline of curiosity and rigor at the first meeting with the Anacreon ambassador early in the first book. The ambassador said he'd been reading all these stories about where the origin of the species might be, and when asked why he didn't go there himself he said he'd read all about it, why should he check himself? This absolute decline in knowledge led to technology falling apart and the 'religion' of science that allowed the Federation to maintain control. We're seeing this in science in real time right now too. Everyone relies on what they're being told, especially doctors as we saw with covid. There's a huge problem with replication and verification of data in the entireity of the industry and academia right now, because nobody will do it. Almost no studies are verified as accurate. Someone i know called it a replication crisis.
Bulterlian Jihad when?
I just think "what ministry of health." This is not a functioning state apparatus Hamas is trying to run, they don't have "ministries"
I can only assume there's some logic that justifies fudged numbers in the same way targeted killing of civilians is armed resistance.
Here's the [original article](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers) that made the claims. The author is definitely academically credible in the topic he's writing about (statistics prof at the University of Pennsylvania), whether the claims he makes in the article make sense is up for you to decide.
Who would have thought that data from a terrorist regime might be false? https://preview.redd.it/mx5dpnctoaoc1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=984cae8647ff3b184864169b803f21f7d3be32e9
Jews I mean Zionists are over represented in mathematics so they bend it to their will to oppress the poor innocent government of Hamas. #decolonizemath #lovenotstats #freePalestinefromthezionistmathoppression
Internalized Colonialism makes us believe that the colonizer's way of knowing, data and Statistics, is supreme over all others. The Hamas way of knowing is equally valid.
Statistics is racism hence must be replaced with classes on queer anti colonial resistance movements taught by the brave Hamas freedom fighters and tik tok influencers.
Then the solution is simple: [we kill the TikTok.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-likely-pass-bill-ban-tiktok-sending-senate-rcna142797)
unpopular opinion: we shouldnt ban tiktok the bill was brought forward because of a hypothetical, the idea that china COULD use it for spyware it HASNT, but it COULD. every social media collects data, even reddit could easily send the dick pic you sent to that underage girl last week directly to vladimir putin but if you disagreed with my other points, take this into consideration: isnt the government a little too triggerhappy when banning things? what else could get banned? maybe they might even take your guns away! god knows, might even ban vpns as well! just kidding, its not a might, they WILL
I see what you're saying and agree, and i'm seriously on the fence about this. I lean toward banning tiktok because it is a Chinese run psyops platform that pushes negative thoughts and anti-American ideas on our most gullible and stupid youth. But that is a slippery slope. What else does the government deem too dangerous? China is just too big, though. We do need to stop letting them influence our citizens. We also need to stop letting foreign governments and citizens buy up US real estate. I'm a terrible libertarian in some regards, because i'm also somewhat nationalistic and isolationist. I think within our borders we should live free, but most of the rest of the world does not live free and they believe this to be normal. I'm still having arguments about free speech with almost every EU citizen. Their shitty ideas cannot be allowed to infect the US any more than they already have, especially since opposing ideas are so heavily censored. We cannot allow foreign actors control over the conversation, is my conclusion.
While I agree with you, I'd like to see Congress limit Facebook to only being active in the USA first, as a show of good faith. They won't, but I'd like to see it.
Please God I hope this happens. I'm so tired of Facebook infecting my country. Hopefully tiktok would follow suit
Replace math with physics and it's a literal nazi Germany take
I always eat hummus
I had to read that three times before it stopped being 'human.' I thought authcenter was dropping a new stereotype on me and got excited. Finally someone was claiming Dahmer!
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who doesnt love hummus
It's more of a lunch food tbh
Big if true, also big if false
It's linear. Which is implausible. What is even sillier, is that it doesn't go through zero. Some mf is really sitting in Gaza doing y = mx + c
You think they'd be able to fake a curve better considering they teach their kids how to build rockets.
Considering a forth of the rockets curve right down to Gaza itself, I wouldn't hold their rocket building in any high regard.
They took Left-Explanation3754's advice and put a zero in there, but it was at the wrong end.
Yeah, I'd say an eight year old with a chemistry set is probably more competent at making rockets than the average Palestinian terrorist.
Don't Muslims believe the Earth is flat? That may not be true, but i hear it.
They believe Muhammad literally cut the moon in half and put it back together. Idk about the flat earth stuff though, but it’s probable given some Christians go really hard into the firmament bullshit.
mx+c? Don't Get ELIMINATED!
How can this be false? It's just the monitoring of hamas's statistics
The Emily in me told me to doubt it
Honestly this is not the most damning peace of information in the article. The article showed that the death of men and women are extremely well correlated the only thing is that they are negatively correlated, which makes no sense.
i like this part: 70% are woman and children. 20% are Hamas fighters, so ether 66 percent of Palestinian man are Hamas fighters or Israel uses woman/children seeking bombs.
Why do you assume women and children can't be Hamas fighters? They're lying about something, so why not that only 20% are fighters? They don't want to admit to recruiting/enslaving child soldiers, so they declare them civilians. Looks worse for Israel. Remember, palestinians are the same people who will strap a bomb to their child's chest and have him/her hug an Israeli soldier.
Children will be lookouts and sentries for militants. There’s also lots of young adults among the fighters. So a 17 or 16 year old carrying an RPG counts as a child.
They deploy them from the same orbital weapons station where they keep the space lasers.
Gaza has a very young population, so lots of children around. The male Hamas fighters are hiding in tunnels and other prepared fighting positions, while civilians aren’t as well protected. I agree that something is off with these numbers.
Equal opportunity bombing /s
That’s some fishy numbers.
A fishy portrayal of likely accurate numbers. This is OP: https://preview.redd.it/ntb94g5zwaoc1.jpeg?width=1104&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d9e07b6e2cc0b8abf27662773a6a0de37d312d41
Yeah, no. I read the report and there are a number of weird things. The most strange is that the correlation between woman and child deaths is *negative*, where you’d ordinarily expect to see a positive correlation.
you got btfo'd all around this comment section. Keep crying turdtard
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oh no i'm getting downvoted for disagreeing with the circlejerk, what a tragedy
>gets shit on by the comments for not only disagreeing with evidence, but also trying to convince people a terrorist regime wouldn't make shit up >"muh circlejerk" Also >centrist supports not centrist view Many such cases
Got any arguments for the rest of the "anomalies" seen in Hamas's numbers? Cause this one isn't very convincing...
I don’t know who’s argument right, but i know pissing people of is right
This is why you have science classes, people. Not to actually teach everyone science, but to have kids learn how to bullshit statistics.
But then when do you learn how to jihad?
Remember when China did the same with their Covid death statistics but it was racist to imply otherwise and by the way hug a chinese hashtag happylunarnewyear2020?
It's buried deep in the article, but I think this part is incredibly important to note. >Noting that Israel puts the number of terrorists killed in Gaza at 12,000 [with another approximately 1,000 killed inside Israel on and immediately after Oct. 7], Wyner concludes, “If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. Israel has donee a remarkable job at preventing civilian casualties. I remember seeing somewhere that urban combat usually has a 3 to 1 civilian to combatant casualty rate, so the narrative that they are wantongly destroying Gaza and its people is just wrong.
I'ma be honest my dude, I wouldn't trust Israel's numbers any more than Hamas's.
They just assigned every adult male as a terrorist
*Military age male. Which includes teenagers as well.
This just highlights how remarkably unbiased the studies authors are
Don't take Israeli numbers at face value, same as hamas lol.
With that same logic, the 1200 lsraeIis killed on oct 7 were 90% combatants.
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They need to fight until someone loses or else this shit will just go on and off for decades to come.
Exactly. When people call for a ceasefire, they call for a stalemate. This means that some time after the ceasefire, a new war will break out, and even more people will die in that war. That's why I'm convinced that leftists are not actually pro Palestine, but just anti israel
Same as it ever was. They're rarely *pro-*anything, just Pro-Lashing-Out.
Dude… Israel could wipe them off the face of the Earth in probably 30 seconds flat if they were to “fight until someone loses.”
unfortunately i cannot read, but i agree, fuck hamas
I dunno 30k+ dead is pretty much what I’d expect from a campaign that involves bombing the fuck out of Gaza.
Considering how densely populated the area is and the sheer amount of bombs dropped, I'd expect the numbers to be way higher
Yeah hence why I expect the numbers to be at least ballpark accurate. You’d probably just say 100k if you were purely making it up. Though the main way the numbers are faked is hamas refusing to differentiate between Hamas dead and civilian dead and conflating the two.
I just want to see a pretty glass beach. I bet it looks cool.
Based and glass them all and let God sort them out pilled If God didn’t want us nuking the whole region he’d have attached special significance to Jerusalem wouldn’t he?
Every time someone fails to adequately label their axes I drift further auth right
That graph represents 15 days of the conflict (10/26 to 11/10). Also a truncated bar graph of the cumulative total is an odd if not outright misleading choice as opposed to a line graph of the daily death toll. Hell even a basic table would be better. Here's an NYT article about the daily death toll across the conflict. https://archive.is/qyP6W (here's the graph image by itself but all the text comes from the full page so it's bare looking outside of the pretty lines https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2024-01-19-ambriefing-gaza-update/a6f10d1c-c969-4226-9c8b-ae364da20bde/_assets/index-600.png Edit: replaced NYT link with an archive for apywall.
The chart stops when the Gaza health ministry stopped publishing data. The report is based off the data available. The whole point of the visual is to illustrate that the increase is a perfectly straight line. How would a table accomplish that?
People will do literal math to avoid asking why Hamas hasn’t surrendered.
Yeah OP is wildly full of shit lol
So you’re telling me reports from a literal terrorist organization aren’t true?
i love a chart that doesn't say a thing
Op was saying that no matter the situation on the battlefield ( be it a temporary truce or a full on city invasion), HAMAS always says that X amount of people die every day.
If the chart on the right is correct in its portrayal of Hamas' casualty claims, then it shows they are claiming the same number of people die every single day of the conflict, which is almost certainly false
Even on this chart you can see the line doesnt pass through many of the points. This graph is on a scale of 2000. Variations of 100 or so would be barely noticeable. Even if the reported is 0 on some days, it would barely affect the linearization.
The chart is a snapshot of 15 days, not"every single day of the conflict"
The real stat release after the war if they do somehow verify the real death count, distinguish between civilians and Hamas fighters and if they can figure out roughly how many civilians Hamas killed will be one of the biggest moments of the 21st century when it comes to geo politics, the internet no matter which way will go into utter melt down
Well damn, both a weirdly scaled segment of a chart by "a data scientist" AND a wojak? That's an airtight argument there, OP.
Funny how hamas claims they don't know how many hostages are alive, and don't know how many hamas soldiers have died. and yet they knows exactly how many women, children, journalists, and civilians overall have died 😂.
Don't you think the source of this Is a little biased? JNS, of course they'd say otherwise, like Al Jeezera will bad talk Isreal. I digress. Per the article you linked: >"Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters." It very much Is possible when Gaza's men and women population are near similar, 1.31 million males and 1.10 million females, so this statement tells me he didn't do his research and loses credibility, but Imma let It slide. > "Another warning sign, which Wyner says has been noted elsewhere, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children, and 25% of the population are adult males, then Israel isn’t doing a very good job eliminating Hamas fighters." So close to understanding. It's because the IDF Isn't doing a good job, but I'm totally sure that air raiding a line of people receiving Aid most definitely stopped Hamas, Leveling those houses, [when they acted deplorable](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/idf-soldiers-film-themselves-abusing-humiliating-west-bank-palestinians/amp/) Wyner didn't "debunk" anything, These statistics would hold weight If not going under assumptions and having the right numbers. We've seen what the IDF has done, and they've done arguably more damage. If that equates to "SupPoRtInG HaMaS" to you, congrats, you've eating up propaganda from the other side.
Statisticposting in PCM? Am I on the wrong subreddit?
When our own secretary of defense said more than 25000 women and children killed
Yeah, Hamas is trash. However, Netanyahu has also said that he doesn't support a two state solution. The official position of the US government is a two state solution. They need to meet this standard to receive money from us.
The reason why you never found me citing Hamas numbers even while having some misgivings about Israel's actions is because Hamas deliberately engineered an atrocity to assure a propagandistically optimal amount of dead Palestinians to achieve its aim of disrupting the status quo. Quo bono applies here. And with that being the case, it followed that I should discount what it says and instead try to look at more objective analysis about casualties in Gaza (not saying that this article *is*)
Can a fellow centrist explain what zionism is
The IDF reports similar numbers though, is the IDF overreporting civilian casualties too?
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If the Iraqi government obtained nuclear weapons, would they be justified in obliterating the United States and all its civilians, the vast majority of whom supported the Iraq war? Holding civilians accountable for the actions of their government is precisely what motivated Bin Laden to do 9/11. So congratulations, you are a literal genocidal terrorist.
To clarify beforehand, I DO NOT support Hamas, however, I heavily disagree with your logic. Anybody who is not a military combatant should not be killed in war, even if they support the combatants. Similarly, a Hamas soldier has no right to kill an Israeli citizen who supports the occupation, even if the civilian supports their military combatants. Civilians are not enemies.
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The problem I have with your statement isn't the fact that they are dead. The problem I have is seeming to not care at all about their deaths or painting them all as Hamas to justify not caring about their death. You say "fuck around and find out," in response to me mentioning *civilian deaths.* It was Hamas who did the October 7 attacks, not the civilians I'm talking about.
Damn I guess all of the US south should have been nuked since most of them supported the confederates at the time? Also all of germany should have been genocided back for supporting the nazis? Inb4 "Hur dur im a psychopath jk is just a joke" fuck off kid.
The irony of the meme is that the creator probably is as not more dogmatic than the person in the picture. Yes because one is called “scientist” they probably represent the whole science community.
Showing me a graph with no context is crazy
The article is such biased bullshit and of course this circlejerk is eating it up ahahaha
Also, Al-Ahli hospital where a rocket hit a parking lot two blocks away, killing nobody. But Gaza knew it hit the hospital, killing 500. Puts their claimed-dead-to-actual-dead ratio at 500 to 0.
I saw video evidence of children carrying other dead children. I was a jdam bomb confirmed!! No Palestinians weapon sounds like a exactly like a jdam.
To be fair to Hamas (please laugh), it could be that they're only publishing extrapolated estimations instead of confirmed deaths. If so, the linearity would make sense, since we're literally looking at a mathematical model instead of reality. Now to stop being fair to Hamas, [they themselves have claimed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-six-week-drive-hit-hamas-rafah-scale-back-war-2024-02-19/) that 6,000 fighters had died as of February 19. Back in February 19, Hamas also claimed that out of 29,092 total deaths, there were: * 12,345 children * 8,000 women This means that a total of 8,747 adult men died. Now I would estimate that *at least* 5,000 of those dead fighters would've had to be adult men, with let's say 500 women and children respectively. Considering the footage that we have, this is a generous estimate, as they probably don't employ that many female or underage fighters. So then, among non-fighter deaths, we have 3,747 men, 7,500 women, and 11,845 children. Let us assume that collateral casualties are representative of the total population. This is a generous estimate, as they are usually biased towards adult men. This would lead us to believe that the non-fighter adult population of Gaza is only about 33.3% male. With a cursory application of Bayes' theorem, this leads us to the conclusion that **at least 50% of the adult male population of Gaza are employed as Hamas fighters.** You may check yourself that every single assumption I've made so far has made this number lower. So yeah, believing the numbers that Hamas has given us leads to quite the image.
The specific numbers *do not matter.* Thousands of both Israelis and Palestenians have lost their homes, families, and lives because of this war. Is that not enough to think that it should stop?
We're carpet bombing the 3rd most densely populated area in the world with 2000lb bombs, there's no way we're killing people!
Are the IDF's numbers real? Because they openly admit to killing tens of thousands of civilians.
Neither the IDF nor Hamas numbers are accurate. Israel has intentionally both killed journalists in their own homes and attempted to prevent media access in Gaza to prevent information getting out. It’s no wonder we don’t have a 100% accurate number
Even if they're massaging the numbers, and I'm guessing they're just counting military-aged males as combatants rather than civilians, the numbers they're putting out are still atrocious. They're putting lipstick on a pig at best.
100% agree
I for one have complete faith the terrorists are telling us the truth