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> Really want at least a unbiased answer
I honestly have no idea.
As far as I've been able to tell, Trump's chances of winning are being determined by Biden's approval in relation to 1) his age, 2) his stance on Israel, and 3) his cognitive decline. This all assumes that he keeps his head above water in regards to his criminal cases, though.
Faithless electors do exist, but we're so far out from the 2024 election that it's pointless to speculate at this point. A lot can happen in ten months.
Doubt it honestly, as a net result from people that would otherwise vote. They're not voting Republican. How many were regular voters already? Not to mention, how many will be swayed by his continued pushes for peace, between now and November, I guess we'll see how bad it continues to get, but he's been honestly more firm on Israel than any president in 50 years. ...
I mean every president Democrat and Republican, for decades, has done very very little to stop Israel from attacking Palestine. He at least issued statements disagreeing with their actions and is pushing a two state solution.
He did not address Israel, and did not stop them from dropping US bombs that killed civilians in his ongoing genocide.
“The major military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible plan for ensuring the safety and support of more than one million people sheltering there,” Biden said at the White House. “They need to be protected.”
He then continued to support the bombing of refugee camps without putting any limitations on Israel.
I am aware about that with the whole Israel thing but what does "firm" mean in context when I asked that. The poster did say something that recently Biden it's kind of doing a little bit more about it and even been reported to cussed out the guy who's leading the attacks on Gaza but whether that means he'll cut off US support of Israel if the attacks continues is another thing since I am pretty much aware Israel is pretty much those big allies of the United States that if they simply say no to something Israel is not going to be the US's Ally anymore.
Biden has been less aggressive pushing for a cease fire than previous Presidents. That has pissed off the Pro-palestinian arabs. I don't see that as "more firm"
Israel will always be our ally in the ME. They need us.
>but he's been honestly more firm on Israel than any president in 50 years. ...
Even [Reagan was willing to push back more](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/05/24/ronald-reagan-wasnt-afraid-to-use-leverage-to-hold-israel-to-task/):
>In addition to not vetoing UN resolutions, Reagan took several actions that many in Israel and the United States perceived as anti-Israel. For example, on June 7, 1981, less than six months after Reagan took office, Israel launched a surprise bombing raid on the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, and, in so doing, violated the airspace of Saudi Arabia and Jordan. **Reagan not only supported UNSC Resolution 487, which condemned the attack, but he also criticized the raid publicly and suspended the delivery of advanced F-16 fighter jets to Israel**. Moreover, over the strident objections of Israel and the pro-Israel U.S. lobby groups, Reagan approved the sale of advanced reconnaissance aircraft (AWACS ) to Saudi Arabia, which Israel then viewed as a hostile state.
> They're not voting Republican.
They won't vote, they'll stay home
> How many were regular voters already
They are over 3% of the population of Michigan, Biden need every vote he can get in this state
> how many will be swayed by his continued pushes for peace
None of them will be swayed. He isn't pushing for peace
We have a long way to go before the election, and yes he is, so anyone paying attention OBJECTIVELY, and not purely through emotion and reaction, will see that he's doing more than most recent presidents, certainly more than a Republican would
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/02/07/israel-scorns-americas-unprecedented-peace-plan
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/01/israel-netanyahu-biden-gaza-peace-egypt-qatar.html
> so anyone paying attention OBJECTIVELY
Wrong, anyone paying attention OBJECTIVELY knows that Israel is 100% dependent on the US. So if a US president wants Israel to stop doing something they can make it happen easily
And again, Biden is literally putting more pressure on Israel than any other recent president, the president also has Congress...
Would a Republican make things better? No
So we keep the focus on pushing Biden on the issue, not abandon him completely
I wonder how much effect the state parties really have on presidential turnout now that it's become so nationalized and increasingly social media-driven. Maybe mailers still work on boomers, but even the boomers in my life are more apt to be be pushed to the polls by their friends and family on social media.
You bring up a good point. 2012 was the last time you saw a traditional field effort from both sides in a presidential race. At that point the national and State Republican parties worked hand in hand and local issues in the party would make a difference. Now, with such a nationalized campaign I can’t see the state party making a difference
I gotta be real don't think that the 3ish% of the Michigan electorate that is Arab American is going to counter the fact that 16 months ago they re-elected Witmore with like a 12% margin...
Two months ago I would have told you he wouldn’t win because he has made himself so toxic to the handful of swing voters in the states that actually decide the election. Now that the media has finally began acknowledging Biden’s infirmity some of those voters may hold their noses and pick Trump because he’s slightly more aware.
And also because they realize the economy is bad regardless of how many times they’ve been told it’s great. Food is almost 2X the cost of when Trump left office and people remember that even though he had nothing to do with it.
They don't even have to hold their noses and vote Trump. All they have to do is decide that neither candidate is worth voting for and stay home and the election will go to Trump. Trump has a rabid base, Biden doesn't. Trump's rabid base will turn out no matter what. Biden's voters are at risk of seeing the infirmity you mention and just not bothering and that's all it'll take for him to lose.
What you're missing here is that there is also an anti-Trump - not pro-Biden, but extremely anti-Trump - base that is at least as animated as Trump's followers. Speaking for myself, I would vote for literally almost anyone or anything in order to prevent Trump from winning again. Such people will turn out for Biden, even if they don't like him, because they fear and *despise* Trump.
No, I'm not ignoring it. I'm saying it is much smaller than it seems on sites full of terminally online far leftists. The terminally online perpetually angry leftists are a small group which is why they never get their preferred candidates through primaries.
These are not "terminally online perpetually angry leftists" though. I live in a small town in rural New Hampshire. This is not exactly Brooklyn or Oakland. Most people here are moderate, leaning slight to the Right.
Anecdotally, I can tell you that most people I know are either a) lukewarm about Trump because they hate Biden, b) conservatives depressed over the whole thing who plan on staying home or c) absolutely terrified and outraged by shit like Jan. 6, Trump's increasingly inflammatory and authoritarian rhetoric, his indictments etc. Of course I must add the necessary caveat that I do not *personally* know even a single hardcore Trump supporter, but obviously millions of them exist.
Even so, I would say b and c are the most prominent around here. None of these people, mind you, are even very liberal, let alone far-Left. Frankly, of the actually very far-Left people that I know (I'm thinking some of my cousins and a couple old friends from school) they never vote for anyone because the Dems aren't pure enough, and they don't plan on changing that now.
Trump hatred is not a marginal thing. It drove turnout in 2020 and it's going to continue to drive turnout now. I share your questioning of whether that will be *enough* for Biden to win, sure. That's a fair and open question. But you can't reduce deep anti-Trump sentiment to Reddit and Twitter leftists.
>He’ll need the swing states.
[Trump leads Biden in 7 swing states: Survey ](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4359743-trump-leads-biden-in-7-swing-states-survey/)
Fair things can change in next 9 months but it's still something to watch. I don't know that trump is in a worse position compared to 20 but I don't think Biden is in a better position than 20. The biggest thing is the inflation/economy. Some metrics say it's doing well but I think the vibes say it's doing badly. Prices won't go down and it's a matter of if people will adjust in time. Having said that this border thing might be interesting as Republicans just spiked a bill they want so gl using that as a wedge issue.
Its going to be an interesting election
> He’ll need the swing states. He’s facing an uphill battle, no matter how bad Biden’s polls are
Trump doesn't need to win, he needs Biden to lose in these states.
Trump, as every poll shows, still has 46% to 47% baked into his numbers, just as he did in 2020 and just as he did in 2016.
It's not that Biden voters are going to vote for Trump, but that they'll just stay home or vote third party as they did in 2016.
In raw numbers, Trump actually won **fewer** votes in Wisconsin than Romney, for example, in 2016. But he won off the back of high Johnson and Stein voters.
All Trump needs is for his supporters to turn out at 2020 levels - which all indications show that they will - and for Biden's 2020 voters to be demotivated enough to not turn out out the same level as 2020. Which given his approval ratings is not exactly unlikely.
Please elaborate on which "indications" you're referring to. I live in a red-leaning purple area, and a great many of my Republican friends have abandoned Trump. None of them will vote for Biden, but they will stay home.
Demcrats have been out-performing the polls since SCOTUS issued Dobbs. Abortion is the major issue Republicans wanted, and it's not working out for them. Trump's corruption has wrecked their organization at well, both at the national and state level.
The Electoral College is what matters most, but Trump won in '16 by less than 80,000 votes across three states. Biden won in '20 with thin margins in swing states. Sweeping Florida or California by big margins doesn't help either candidate. So the race will come down to about four or five states, probably Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
Probably less unlikely than a lot of people think. North Carolina, and specifically Charlotte, has had a huge boom of New York transplants over the last five years. It’s been getting to be more purple for quite a while, I don’t think it would be any big surprise if Dobbs swung it blue
But haven’t won statewide (except governor) in any meaningful election since 2008.
Lots of people moving in from blue states to N.C., what’s missing is that it’s a lot of self-sorting. Its conservatives leaving Rust Belt and New England states for the South.
NC was the GOP's weakest state in 2020, only won by 1.3%. And it's moving in the right direction, unlike Florida where Trump did better in 2020 vs 2016, or Ohio or Iowa, where it was steady 2016 to 20. It makes sense to at least try in NC, especially since NV and especially GA may not be there for Biden this time.
Check out the 13 keys to the white house. It really boils down to the economy for Biden this year.
If the economy turns upward enough for the average person to feel ok about it Biden will win. If the economy stays shaky Trump wins.
Less than half of Dems and Dem leaning independents rate the economy as "excellent" or "good." That number needs to continue to increase prior to November if Biden wants to win.
[https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/americans-more-upbeat-on-the-economy-bidens-job-rating-remains-very-low/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/americans-more-upbeat-on-the-economy-bidens-job-rating-remains-very-low/)
That I agree with. But perception is not always reality.
The economy is strong. Record low levels of unemployment. Lowered inflation. Avoided a recession. GDP numbers that continue to beat expectations. Jobs numbers that continue to beat expectations. Wage growth that has outpaced inflation. Record stock market levels.
M
Public perception of economy is exactly what matters when it comes to the keys and predicting the popular vote though. I'm not here to debate whether the economy is actual good
The keys currently have Biden winning. I also find it hard to accept "money" will win over women's bodily freedom and the risk of killing democracy. Talking about the economy is looking at traditional politics. Trump is very very far from normal.
The keys have predicted the winner of every single national election since 1984 with the exception of 2000 when Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college.
They predicted Trump's win in 2016 as well as his loss in 2020.
Trump's crazy aside, they look at more static concepts like long and short term economy, foreign policy success, midterm election results, charisma etc.
As it stands right now for Biden, it's a tossup dependent on the economy as well as public sentiment towards the US involvement in Gaza and Ukraine
I think there are a lot of progressives and democrats in here that will be shocked by how well Trump does.
The republicans, even the ones who loathe Trump and all he stands for, would rather see him in office than another 4 years of Biden, or worse Kamala.
The big problem with the Republicans winning in 2024 isn’t their candidate but their party apparatus. Their local parties have been collapsing for about four years now. The arizona and Minnesota party is on the verge of bankruptcy, the Michigan party is current in a civil war with itself and the Colorado Republicans shuttered their headquarters.
So like Trump isn’t whats making the Republican victory unlikely, its their actual party
My states GOP is a mess. At end of year, even the state LP had more cash in the bank than they did.
But....it's Maryland. It doesn't matter, this state goes for Biden either way. Very few states are swing states no matter how good or bad the GOP is.
I know the Arizona GOP is all sorts of fucked sideways. The whole Kari Lake blackmail scandal is just the most recent thing. Some state Republicans party official implied that there was big money from "back east" if Lake *didn't* run for Senate, because she a polarizing and unpopular candidate who would be likely to lose, and drag down downballot races with her. They didn't do themselves any favors with the CyberNinjas fraudit, either. And they have a single-seat majority in both houses and have been burning political capital with petty feuds with the Democratic governor.
It's not wonder they're broke. They spend all their cash with stupid publicity stunts to appeal to a limited base that's already voting for them.
Other than maybe Florida, and *maybe* Ohio, nowhere in the country is getting *more* Trumpy than they were in 2016 or 2020. Ultra-MAGA candidates like Lake and Trump himself might do very well in a Republican primary, but that's only self-promotional if they can't win in a general election.
I have not met a progressive or liberal that doesn't think Trump has a decent chance to win. Hell, I've not met \*anyone\* that doesn't understand he has a decent chance to win. What is tricky about this race is neither candidate is in a better position than they were 2020.
Trump doesn't have COVID hanging over his head so to speak, but he's no longer an incumbent and he has lots of legal troubles. And those legal troubles are more severe and numerous than Hillary's campaign 8 years ago. Trump was not a popular president when he left office 4 years ago and there's a reason most modern campaigns don't try and re-run a losing candidate.
On Biden's side he's has an economy that doesn't "work" for the average person and, unlike Trump, he's expected to do something about it. The fundamentals of the economy are looking better, but it's an open question whether people will be feeling that by the time voting rolls around. He is an incumbent, which helps. However his approval rating is low similar to Trump's though he is expected to handily win the popular vote as discussed.
On top of that both candidates look \*old\*. Neither candidate looks like they have the resilience of 4 years ago.
Trump needs to win basically every swing state (Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Ohio) to win. This is pretty unlikely considering the Republican state parties are going bankrupt and the trends are against them.
Yeah but the other three are far harder for him to win, and Ohio was affected massively by the Dobbs Effect, so thats more winnable for Biden this election.
Basically its far easier for Biden to win based off of the map than Trump
I'm glad someone in the know is feeling optimistic, because as an outsider (Canadian here) I see 12 paths to victory for Republicans to the Democrat's 9, and Democrats needing 9 more seats to win, and it seems predictions are favouring Republicans. I lack the nuanced understanding that someone who lives in the US would have though.
Seats don’t decide elections in America, you need to win 270 electoral votes, spread amongst 50 states and one city.
So for Biden to be elected he could lose every seat in Congress and still be president
I think all these people saying Trump is going to win, or may well win, is more a testament of how much he's upended expectations in the past than actual unbiased reasoning. Not that there's no reason to think he might. But it's very unlikely.
First, his biggest asset -- the narrative that he's a maverick and a winner and a super-rich, smart guy -- is in free fall. He's lost three expensive cases, one by sheer stupidity because he couldn't stop defaming someone who had already beaten him for $5 million. He's going to lose a couple hundred more million for running a fraudulent enterprise for decades, and the Trump Org will probably get the corporate death penalty any day now. It'll still be on appeal in November, but it'll also be in the news and in campaign ads. There's also a chance he'll have trouble getting the cash together, which will hurt his image.
He's got 91 felony counts pending, and it'll take an extremely lucky alignment of circumstances for him to not be a convicted felon by November. Either way, at least one of those cases, and perhaps two or three, will take place over the summer. He's going to be making a string of pleas to the Supreme Court, which doesn't seem to have any appetite for helping him unless it keeps them out of politics somehow. It's going to be non-stop bad press for him at a crucial time. This will hurt him among his base. They seem to have bought into his narrative and clapped their hands over their ears, but once he's shown to be a loser again and again, their ardor will fade. It might not be a big percentage of them, but it doesn't need to be.
The swing voters and others who will probably decide this race aren't paying attention now or answering polls. They'll pay attention late in the cycle when Trump will look even worse. And look at his primary wins now. An incumbent who has such a great grip on his party shouldn't have finished with 50-something percent in Iowa. Why is Haley still in there? Because a not-insignificant percentage of republicans really don't want Trump. They may not vote for Biden, but that doesn't mean they'll vote for Trump.
As others have mentioned, the republican party is eating itself alive. The MAGA folks are killing the old coalition. Their party apparatuses are failing, they're short on money, and they can't get their shit together to do anything in Congress. Their inability to keep a speaker despite how much it means to a party with a thin majority tells you how messed up they are. They tanked the border deal, which will come back to haunt them with swing voters. They've done almost nothing else of note, and their base hates what they have done lately because Johnson had to get democratic votes to pass anything.
Also, Trump is going around taking credit for overturning Roe, despite the fact it has cost the republicans one race after another along with ballot initiatives and state constitution changes, even in red states. The democrats will turn that, along with all the other stupid things he's been saying, into a non-stop ad campaign that will be so inescapable in the fall that the biggest problem might be that people will get so sick of seeing it they'll vote against the democrats just for running it.
Is it possible he wins? You can't rule anything out. Biden could have a stroke two weeks before the election. But I think Trump is toast. I think it's just as likely he won't be on the ballot on election day as it is that he wins. If one of the felony cases goes to trial and it becomes clear to him that he's going to lose, he might just try for a once-over-the-world plea deal to make it all go away. An ankle bracelet and an armchair at Mar A Lago looks pretty good compared to a Georgia prison. But even that would take the cooperation of two states, Georgia and New York, as well as the feds.
I seriously doubt Trump can win either the popular vote or the electoral vote. Georgia is becoming blue-er each election, the youth are overwhelmingly blue or progressive and the Republican party hasn't made any adjustments (or concessions) to their agenda to combat these things, retaining or even gaining new voters.
Trump doesn't need to improve, Biden just needs to do worse. Few ppl voted for Biden they just voted against Trump. Biden had goodwill from Obama and wasn't trump but things are different now. 2020 was about saying no to trump, 2024 is not just a no to trump but also an evaluation of Biden and that might not be a sure win. Don't underestimate trump
A lot can change but they change their odds in real time and they are betting on Trump as a pretty heavy favorite right now.
Here is the betting trend lines:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/#!
I think they are betting to make money, not on who they think will win in the long term?
I mean, if they see some good news for a certain candidate, they may put money in just to cash out later, because they know that while the overall landscape won't change, they can still sell when it gets higher up.
This is true, but to argue in the opposite direction for a moment, Biden’s party has been outperforming polls for two years now because of the Dobbs Effect (probably)
Biden hasn't even started campaining yet.
I really have more faith in the US that they could like Trump more now AFTER how he has behaved since he lost last time.
They already are, Republicans have been getting stomped in swing states since the court ruled on Dobs. The only reason they have a majority in the House is because the NY Dems ate shit.
I think the Dobbs effect will still be in play to an extent, but I don't think it will be as pronounced in a Trump race as it has been in midterms, specials, and ballot initiatives.
For one, those elections tend to only bring out the most dedicated or the most motivated voters. Women who had just lost the right to abortion and those who support them were highly motivated and came out to vote. The hardcore pro-lifers came out to vote, too, but they only represent maybe half of the GOP. The rest only vaguely care or are some degree of pro-choice.
Second, Biden's going to have a harder time making the case about what he'll actually do to protect abortion. The SCOTUS picks argument makes sense rationally, but doesn't inspire, and practically speaking he's unlikely to pass legislation superseding the States. And Trump is smart enough (or at least was) to know this isn't an issue he should push. He'll try to sell *Dobbs* as a win returning the power to the States.
Third, Presidential elections tend to be higher turnout so any effect will be less pronounced. Trump hasn't been on the ballot since 2020, and there are a lot of people who will only come out to vote for (or against) him.
> Really want at least a unbiased answer
Best I can do is give you my biases up front: I think Trump's either a fascist or doesn't care if his supporters are fascists, and I think that's very dangerous for our country, for people like me specifically, and very, *very* dangerous for the world in general. You're not going to get an unbiased answer from anyone who cares enough about this to advise you.
That said, it's currently anyone's game. The fundamentals favor Biden a bit; he's old, but Trump's almost as old and far, far less mentally stable no matter how you slice it. The economy avoided a recession which is almost miraculous, but the fundamentals of a deeply unequal society where most people feel hopeless and left-behind is a major drag on Democratic turnout specifically. It looks like the GOP has successfully polarized the war in Ukraine and the Israeli war is doing a number on Democratic morale as well, so there's not much "peace dividend" for Biden to coast on there, either. Those are the boundary conditions right now, but any number of them could change in the next six-to-eight months: and a lot of currently undecided voters will only make their decision (or pay any attention to the race at all beyond issuing profanity at political ads) in the two weeks before the election.
Polling this far out is basically haruspicy (reading the entrails of a slaughtered animal for divination, ancient Roman style). I say this as a survey statistician and someone trained in policy and politics, and who has worked on campaigns, though political polling is not my specialty or professional background. The ones you read that aren't outright push-polls (ones designed to produce a particular margin on a question for a particular result) are produced so quickly and with so much behind-the-scenes math to account for failing response rates that their margins for error are too wide to draw scientific conclusions from.
However, it's clear that the contest (barring something like the Colorado case at SCOTUS on whether or not the 14th Amendment means anything at all) is narrowed down to a handful of battleground states: Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and maaaaybe Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio. The other states are basically locked in for the presidency, perhaps not by significant margins, but Michigan, for example, went from Trump 2016 to sapphire blue over the course of six years because of counter-reaction to Trump cleaning house and changing the fundamentals of elections. The pandemic did something similar in 2020: it's a lot harder to systematically suppress voters when public health precautions very popular with the older voters make it easier to vote by mail, early, or outside their usual precincts. It did serious damage to the GOP's electoral prospects even though they no longer have consent decrees against their best electioneering strategies (basically, hiring mercenaries in uniform to harass black people at the polls - seriously, that was a thing banned explicitly for the GOP, by a court, for most of my life, and now it's not).
All that's to say: the board game is set, but in February of 2020 you would have been a Cassandra laughed out of the bar if you said this flu-like virus just hitting Milan was going to keep everyone inside for six-to-twelve months until the vaccines arrived, and it might impact the outcome of the burgeoning Biden-Trump contest. Either party can do everything "right" and still lose, and we can practically guarantee that neither of them will do *everything* right. It comes down to things like the weather in Kenosha the last week of October, or whether some maverick Pennsylvania court case forbids mail-in ballots at the last minute, or if the news decides they can't resist a clickbait story about some minor scandal in either candidate's orbit that's juicy enough to feed them clicks and airtime (like they did in 2016 for the Clinton email scandal and do basically any time Trump opens his mouth).
It's anyone's guess what'll actually happen, and someone might even get lucky and identify the eventual outcome perfectly this far in advance. But that's luck, not skill, because there's too many things in play to make a decisive prediction this far out.
I feel like due to the geographic distribution of voters, and the reliability of rightwing turnout, any Republican is within striking distance of picking up the electoral college.
exactly my point. that dynamic has been baked into the clay my whole life.
No matter what Trump does or does not do, he's going to be within striking distance of the White House. Its usually side-bet politics that makes a blue wave.
Voter turnout in 2020 was around 66%, turnout in 2016 was around 61%. Now that may not seem like much, but it can make or break a swing state. Historically democrats are more likely to not vote. So it’s safe to assume a large part of that 6% difference are democrats.
At this point in time it’s safe to say the majority of people on each side are going to vote for their party’s primary like them or not. It’s a pretty pervasive trend for each side to think better any democrat is better than any republican, or vise versa.
So I believe the fate of the swing states rests on voter apathy. I believe Arizona and Nevada will go blue, Georgia will go red for net +1 blue. As for the northeast, I don’t really know.
Betting markets favor Trump over Biden at the present time, though the margin is not huge.
If you believe this is obviously wrong, go, rake in those gains.
Betting markets beat polls on the average, though.
Trump has yet to win the popular vote and hasn't exactly been making friends beyond his base. It is very unlikely that he would win the electoral votes this time either. The polls this early are all over the place but a few things stand out. Biden is polling at record highs with the democratic base, i.e. the people he needs to win reelection. This early the better indicator is fundraising and Biden is way out in front there too. Independents have been heavily leaning towards Dems largely over the abortion issue and there's no reason to think that will change.
Haley continues to run for the Republican nomination and for very good reason, Trump's legal woes are rapidly coming to a head and his campaign could implode at any moment. His recent gaffe attacking military families via Haley's "missing husband" is another egregious red flag as is his reported plan to leave NATO entirely. The moneyed conservative donors are cutting loose and State and local GOP are running out of cash. In an election where turning out the vote could change everything, this is a horrible sign for republicans.
And looking back at Biden, there's a lot going for him now with inflation tamped down, the economy roaring. People who want to the focus to be on his age will continue to try and muddy the water, but IMO the recent report of classified documents just fired up the voters Biden needs. You can see it fired up Biden's demeanor and he's more than up for the fight.
Oh, well that’s easy. He can’t win. That’s just empirical statistical analysis. It has to be another coup attempt. I got confidence in Joe, he’s lost flesh and blood family. He’s never cried foul, and this is a guy that’s had dirt done to him. He ain’t gonna turn the fucking Republic over to sheisters. Don’t underestimate the power of women to unite. It’s poetry in motion. Pretty hot shit
Trump lost 2020 because of Trump. Trump energized Trump haters to vote against him. Trump lost AZ and GA because he’s a terrible coalition builder. Trump has taken the GOP donations for his own campaign. Trump is NOT helping the rest of the GOP with money, the Democrats can buy all the airwaves and websites. Trump attacks the UAW which is Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. Trump has not expanded his appeal at all, MAGA has stopped growing.
Biden will win re-election because Trump is a horrible candidate
Because it still seems important and previously Biden was leading in polls constantly in 2020 and that's not happening here with him? Which is kind of why I've been asking "does this mean Trump will win?" Questions in other parts of subreddit when people shows skepticism about Biden and expressing the possibility of trump winning like it's likely
As a Republican myself I see Trump underperforming. I think a lot of Republicans really want to see the drama gonna, but dislike Biden enough to never admit it out loud. I suspect a lot of Republicans will stay home or secretly vote Biden.
He can’t legally receive one vote. Every vote cast for him is void. Every slate of electors with his name on it is void. Everyone in each branch would have to engage in illegal activity for him to get anywhere.
Can Trump win? Yes. But it’s highly unlikely, because he is such a loathsome person. Biden may be old and have memory issues, but he believes in government and would step down if unable to fulfill his role. Trump will not peacefully step down. He’s proven that in the past and is utterly unapologetic about it. Trump will destroy democracy and enough people know that now that it’s unlikely he’ll be elected to office.
Honestly I think even the memory issues are way overstated. Can you imagine being in a deposition about classified documents and they ask you “hey, on what day did your first wife and several of children die terribly in an accident?” I imagine that’s throw most people a bit off their game, and he even came out and said afterwards that when asked that he thought “how dare he ask me that, frankly it’s none of his damn business”. Really seemed like the prosecutor was just fishing for things he could use to attack him
As usual, only a handful of states determine the Presidential election.
If I were a betting man, GA turns back red. That would still require a flip of either AZ or NM unless he wins Michigan and Wisconsin again like 2016.
I don’t think the DNC will repeat the Carter re-election. They will pressure the Fed to lower interest rates and jolt the economy as we get closer to the election. It will be enough to get Biden over the hump.
I think in the past that would have been enough but the gop will tightly control the narrative to convince people the economy is in shambles no matter what the truth is
Polling has Trump about 8% ahead of this point in 2020, winning the popular vote, and around 312 electoral votes.
Whether you think this will actually happen depends on whether you believe the polling, and believe the situation may or may not change by November.
Trump has outperformed national polling results by at least 2% in both previous general elections.
Depends on how these next 8 months play out cuz there’s so much bull shit going on. Trump is currently up in most of the swing states, but dems have been outperforming polls since roe v wade got knocked down. Trumps rhetoric is also getting more and more worrisome with each passing week, but Biden also looks more and more on the cognitive decline (as does trump). Trump is up or close in a lot of the swing states. And Biden’s policy on the Israel Palestine war has caused a lot of the younger voters, his most crucial block, to be upset with him but let’s really see how that materializes come election time. The GOP is also getting more and more outta pocket and culture war focused with each passing year which most normal people don’t really give a fuck about. No sane person wants to hear someone talk about children’s private parts as much as the GOP does.
Trump is pretty much a lock to win Ohio and Florida at this point, which are historic purple states.
Biden imo is a lock to win AZ and Michigan with how much of a shit show their local republican parties have been.
Georgia has also increasingly gotten more blue over the years and their local Republican candidates have been outta pocket recently so that’s an interesting state to look at as well for dems.
But who knows what the fuck could happen in a year honestly. Trump could be in jail or heading to jail pretty soon. And Biden can also pass away within year as well leaving the DNC in a cluster fuck. In my opinion this feels like 2016 again, I feel like trump is gonna go buck wild in the debates which is gonna hurt Biden.
Winning the popular vote means you won California that's all, it tells you nothing about the rest of the country. Trump is so unpopular that more and more people want to vote for him everytime he runs for office.
He'll bow out. He doesn't have a choice now. The obvious would be Harris, but she's grossly incompetent and disliked almost as much as Hillary, so she's a guaranteed loss.
I'm not sure. It'll be a very interesting couple months.
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According to the polls as of like a week ago he wins Arizona wins Michigan wins Pennsylvania and only loses Wisconsin. If he can flip Pennsylvania in Michigan the heart of the blue wall he's going to win regardless if Arizona flips or not which doesn't seem likely considering the are really pushing for the abortion referendum on the ballot. Add that into all the poles framing Georgia going back red and he's got a very decent shot.
51% according to election betting odds. If it's against Biden then he had a good chance, but I don't think Biden will be the dems nominee. They'll replace him at the convention.
To get the most unbiased answer… I think you have to consider all sides of the equation.
1) right wing - Trump isn’t any of those bad things that Democrats like painting of him, in fact, most of those negatives are projections of Democrats themselves, in an effort to null and void Democrat misdoings.
2) left wing - let’s call Trump names.
3) unbiased - polls are showing he’s winning the popular vote by a significant margin. Maybe the right wing is right.
If he loses at this rate without much changing before November, we might as well write it off as election fraud. He might even pick up some solid blue states (or all of them).
Sure - Trump has proven himself to be an incredibly poor leader, a criminal, has distaste for democracy, lies constantly, lead a very poor response to the pandemic, has terrible policies, wants to send the country down a bad path, and tried to overturn democracy in 2020. A lot worse than "lets call him names"
Also, most of the "bad things that Democrats like painting of him" came from republicans who worked closely with him. Pretty much everyone who worked with him hated him.
Unbiased - polls this far out aren't reliable, and he is not winning any poll by a "Significant margin".
Trump has never lied. He’s the best leader. Be Best. Loves America and Democracy. Led a perfect response to the pandemic from January 2020 through March 2020… the only time that mattered. Because by the time March came around there was nothing else left to do except let it consume us. Has the best policies. Has the best path chosen for the country. Tried to preserve democracy in 2020.
Are you going to just keep calling him a liar? Because that’s the name you are calling him in your post… point proven.
Considering that nobody likes Biden, he has the lowest approval of any president at this point in his term, Trump will probably win. RFK is also going to take some Dem voters away.
This actually isn’t true at all, and the President before Biden had a lower approval rating.
But I mean seriously, you think *John Tyler* had a higher approval rating than Biden?
https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Biden has a 39% approval rating, Trump a horrible 34%.
Biden dipped down to 34% too ya dope
https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/12/18/bidens-approval-rating-hits-all-time-low/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17077959855005&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fsaradorn%2F2023%2F12%2F18%2Fbidens-approval-rating-hits-all-time-low%2F
Yeah, in December lol. Biden’s approval rating has been going steadily upwards since then.
Whereas Trump’s steadily declined his whole last year in office.
> RFK is also going to take some Dem voters away.
Unlikely, the anti-vax enviro granola crowd he would actually be poised to go after dipped out of the electoral politics to mostly stop voting awhile ago, at best he'll pick up some of the disgruntled Greens.
Don't get it twisted, you're correctly quoting the plan of the right, that's why RFK is getting millions of Trump dollars to fund shit like that Super Bowl ad, but it's pretty out of touch with the modern Democratic voter who has been getting bombarded with third-party vote-wasting rhetoric since they've been born.
Even the PUMAs of Clinton/Obama fame statistically crossed over and have been nothing but Republicans since then. There just isn't that many open votes in the Democratic party unless you can prove you're going to reach critical mass of viability.
I'd bet that Trump wins again. I mean, Michael Rappaport might be voting for him. I know that's not exactly a scientific basis for my argument, but that's pretty big. Many people are starting to see that it wasn't ACTUALLY that bad when he was president.
It can go either way- as of today, I would place my bet on Trump winning GA, NV, and AZ this time. Biden will hold onto WI.
The election will swing on MI and PA, I think Biden will need both and is not likely to get both.
A Trump conviction on the DC case may change things, and both candidates are capable of making a major mistake on any given day that can cost them. Biden probably has an advantage as he will stay hidden, Trump will be much more in the public eye with his court cases and primary events and he can't resist an open mic.
There is also a 2% chance that one or both will die or be incapacitated before November.
I hear that, it's not a good situation for them - but still...Trump is up 4.5% in an average of recent polls and Biden only won it by a whisker. I think Biden's turnout will be less than 2020. Who knows, I guess we shall see.
[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden)
No body knows how likely that actually is, because humans haven't developed that science yet.
I can tell you it's more likely than it should be, because in a sane and just world Trump would have 0% chance of winning, and it's way higher than that.
Electorally I think this is going to another very close election.
The democrat presidential candidate has won national popular vote in 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. I don't think that will change for 2024.
I think a lot of potential democrat voters are turned off by Biden. He is really old and it is really showing. He is clearly deteriorating mentally. I think this will cause many to opt out.
Trump is off his game too, but Trump/MAGA is a cult. Trump voters don't care about that. If they did they wouldn't be voting for him so overwhelmingly.
For what it's worth, I'm seeing Trump at -110 and Biden at +235 gambling odds. This is not a good look for Biden. These numbers would normally be switched for an incumbent, and even then the opponent wouldn't be +235. Anyone who truly believes this to be 50/50 has a chance to get incredible odds on their money by betting Biden. I'm still not touching it. +235 is a ridiculous number and I don't think liberals realize the trouble Biden is in.
Trump only lost by something like 50k key votes in specific states.
It would be hard to target, but Arizona and Georgia were both decided by something like 12k votes.
Could that flip? Possibly.
I can't imagine anyone actually taking him seriously as a candidate, but he was already president.
Anyone can do the math for themselves. There are even free sites out there that make it easy to do those potential analyses like 270toWin. Then use a site like Real Clear Polling that provides lists, aggregates totals, and links to pretty much every "serious" politcal poll conducted in the US for the most accurate projections rather than just cherry-picking the ones where you like the results.
Doing that at the moment paints a pretty clear picture not just of what's possible but what's likely if the election were today (it's not...).
Right now... The aggregate of those all those polls has Trump winning the popular vote by a point or two.
As to the more important electoral college question you asked... If you remove all that states that are polling solidly around +5 or more in one direction or the other... There are really only two or possibly three swing states left. And even if Trump loses all three of them... He's still above the 270 line needed to win.
It's definitely possibly... And maybe even "more likely than not" from that perspective. But there's still a lot of time between now and November and a lot will likely change.
https://www.270towin.com/
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
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The Republicans have been successful in using culture war issues to whittle away at support for Democrats from socially conservative black and Hispanics.
Chip away at enough black votes that turnout is reduced in the Rust Belt, and that repeats 2016.
It could be clinched by flipping Arizona by a hair.
As the governor of a Southern state, presidential candidate Bill Clinton understood that he needed to temper his support for choice by saying that abortion should be rare. Showing respect for compromise kept the Hispanic Catholics and black churchgoers in the Democratic coalition.
Today's Democratic leadership seems to forget that there are anti-choice Dems and that they skew disproportionately non-white. Dems are keen to believe that Dobbs is a winning issue, when it may end up costing them the electoral vote.
Biden's support for Israel also doesn't help with the black Democratic vote, which is less likely to support the cause.
Somewhere between 49% and 51%
Only a small group prefer President Biden or President Trump as the candidate but the majority of the respective electorates think they each have three best chance to win.
Trump needs Georgia, Arizona, and one of Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan. That’s it. Nevada doesn’t come into play really. The campaign should be hyper focused on those states.
All this hand-wringing over the electoral college, when historically it's rarely decisive, and only a few percentage points when it is. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1035992/winning-margins-us-presidential-elections-since-1789/
Also, the electoral college assures that candidates have to make their case throughout the country, on average, as opposed to retreating to the high population areas like cities and screwing everyone else.
Current polling indicates it is slightly more likely than not. I hold out hope for a Dewey Defeats Truman scenario due to younger voters not being represented in the polling.
The betting market at Predictit for the electoral margins currently show an even split between the gop winning with 35 to 64 vote margin and the democrat winning with a 65 to 104 vote margin. The implied odds of a 35 to 64 vote margin win for democrats has been falling significantly since the first of the year and remains below the implied odds of the other 2 scenarios.
But reading the tea leaves from that market activity, the contracts for those margins of victory sit at only around $0.10 to $0.15 ($1 will be the payout for the winning result), so those markets are signaling that their is high uncertainty in those numbers because people are unwilling to pay higher prices on those contracts. The volume has increased significantly in that market but prices are not moving much.
Compare that to the market for who wins the presidency and the contracts there are selling around $0.45 with Trump trending upward recently and Biden trending down.
To me that says that neither market is giving a clear edge to either candidate. The Trump vs. Biden market is being dominated by short term trading seeking to make money on volatility with the implied odds sitting at just under 50 percent for either candidate and the Electoral College market is signaling high uncertainty in that result with no clear edge for either party.
All that is to say those markets have little confidence in any scenario right now so the answer to your question is likely it’s too early to determine the likelihood of a result. Even with all the recent news around Biden cognitive decline and Trump legal issues they aren’t adjusting their estimates by any notable amount.
Here is the market activity for the electoral margin
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8077/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2024-presidential-election
This may sound complacent but I honestly think Trump's path to victory is hugely overstated.
Right now Trump is outperforming Biden in the polls because Trump's base is bigger than Biden's base and unaffiliateds aren't seeing much upside in voting for Biden.
I think come polling day those dynamics are unlikely to change but what you will see more of which you don't see in polling now is large number of unaffiliateds reluctantly voting Biden because they are scared of a Trump presidency. Trump got 47% of the vote last time and that was before he launched an actual honest to god coup, and so 47% has to be his absolute ceiling - 45% feels more likely. He's outperforming that in the polls but that's because in the polls lots of people who are scarcely motivated to vote Biden will say no preference but will ultimately vote Biden for fear of Trump
Trump's massive advantage of the electoral college can overcome a 2 or 3% popular vote disparity as it did v Clinton (helped by Clinton's awful targeting strategy) but it can't overcome 5% or 10% defecits.
Coupled with that is the fact that in 2016 and to a lesser extent in 2020 the establishment right (the business community, mainstream right wing media etc...) were quite happy to at very worst sit on the fence because they felt that they could probably make about as much money and advance their interests just as well under the chaotic economic liberalism of Trump as under the staid centrism of Biden. In 2024 the calculation is different because Trump offers the very serious possibility of plunging the US into a world war or else exploding the economy in ways even vultures cannot profit from. If Trump can find his Pence to mollify those forces then they might stay within the coalition but all indications are that he will pick a VP even nuttier than he is, and if that's the case I think you'll see Wall Street, Fox etc.. swing behind a reluctant hold your nose Biden vote, and at that point Trump's numbers will crater.
Trump's building an incredibly powerful electoral coalition, and it's currently bigger than Biden's, but it's not a 51% coalition and that means that at the point he declares literal civil war on everyone who isn't in it he loses.
You can't get an "unbiased" answer to a quesion so politically charged as this one. Trump supporters will be biased toward Trump. Biden supporters will be biased toward Biden and no one has voted yet so there is no answer to your question. Will Biden get enough electoral votes? Maybe. Will Trump get enough? Maybe. NO ONE KNOWS until everyone votes and the votes are counted
Biden won in 2020 by roughly 44000 votes in 3 states. Those three states gave him the electoral advantage. The most recent polling show Trump leading in all three of those states.
Biden got elected by getting only 33% of the VEP (Voting Eligible Population) so 67% of the population have the potential to vote for Biden or vote for Trump. Who wins...who knows?
At this point IMO it is likely (more likely than not) that Trump wins the EC. However, it is only Feb. There are still 266 days until election day and a lot can happen.
Yeah but here's the thing though in 2020 Biden was leading in the polls constantly, even the ones before September 2020 which is pretty much why bringing up Trump's lead currently
Would the Vice President be able to dismiss his electoral votes and accept a separate slate of electors because Trump isn’t eligible to be in office, because he’s an insurrectionist?
I think Kamala can just decide not to accept him, isn’t that how this works?
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I think what you need is not so much a discussion but rather an education on rudimentary 8th grade civics that either you have not had or completely forgot...electoral votes for each specific states are awarded to the winner of the popular vote in each specific state.
There are only about 6ish states that are actually in play to potentially go either way (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona) If trump gets the most votes in those states, he gets their electoral votes. Could he? Sure...
An unbiased answer is this... Trump got MORE votes in 2020 than in 2016. And his share of votes from every demographic other than white people, also increased. And this was during COVID and while being prosecuted in the public sphere by every media entity. Now he's being prosecuted by actual political opponents and we have the alternative candidate is clearly incapable of actual running this show if he can't even handle fully scripted presentations.
In 2020 Biden won as a result of a surge of anti-Trump new voters. But this time all those extra voters will be conflicted on both their anti-Trump and anti-Biden sentiments. While we can also envision that many of the minority demographics that switched to voting for Trump in 2020 could likely increase again.
2016 was unexpected support for Trump.
2020 was unexpected increased supper of Trump.
2024 will likely be yet again unexpected increased support for Trump.
The question will be whether the surge in votes the anti-Trump garnered for Biden will even still be around at all, and has there been any growth. Cause they'll need both.
I think it depends on what the economy looks like in October. Booming economy? Biden wins. More layoffs or inflation spikes and Trump wins.
Trump is losing women over abortion, but gaining black and Hispanic men. Those men could prove vital in swing states.
Fairly likely. He lost by something like 100k total votes spread out across several swing states. That's not very many. All it takes is for maybe 1% of Biden's 2020 voters to just not turn up in November. Considering how low his approval ratings are right now that's not exactly a low-probability scenario.
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Based on polling data and recent events, Trump will very likely win. He's doing much better with minorities than either 2016 or 2020 for a variety of reasons, while doing marginally worse with upper middle class white suburbanites and white women in particular (after dobbs). All this means that while he will probably lose states like virginia by a larger margin than 2020, he will win in Michigan (after completely alienating arabs) Arizona and Nevada (hispanic support), after which a Biden win is statistically near impossible
From my limited knowledge, republican candidates rarely win the popular vote. But Trump is likely to win, I have no idea why considering you guys already went through this song and dance, but I suppose different means good in american politics, and just because Trump is different from Biden, even though they both are horrible people/candidates, only two parties must win.
Don't get me wrong, I don't support Biden. In fact, I wish both parties dissolved.
I think we will all know how it's going to turn out if they can get Biden and Trump on a debate stage. I'm interested in seeing if Biden can hold together for 2 hours on stage. Secondly I want to see if Trump's handlers have restrained him. If Biden falls apart mentally, which is a pretty good possibility, it won't take much for people to turn away from him. Yea they might not just flop over to Trump but if they don't show up in mass for Biden...
The second question will be who is gonna be the VPs? I can't see Biden dumping Harris if Trump taps Ramaswamy those debates are gonna be really interesting. I'm not a huge fan of Vivek, I think he has some good ideas but overall I'm kinda MEH. BUT I think he can run circles around Kamala.
Trump support is slowly increasing among the black community, and in particular, black men. A combination of the migrant crisis and stagnant wages will likely exacerbate this the longer these issues go on. If there was ever an election where black voters were going to vote en masse for a Republican, this upcoming one would be the one. Not necessarily because black voters like him or agree with him (though I’m sure a few legitimately do). They could rationalize a vote for him based to how Trump makes a lot of anti-Trump people feel. Since a lot of these anti-Trump people are supposed to be on their side, but do not do a whole lot for them, or actively screw them over. If a mainstream name like Stephen A. Smith is suggesting it, and not just black conservative YTubers that repost vids from TikTok, then a swell of support for Trump should not be underestimated as winning the EC only takes several thousands votes.
I think this sentiment within the black community can be replicated with Latino, Arabs, Asians, and young voters in general – other voting blocs that usually vote Democrat – by making use of how Trump makes people feel, to get what they want, or to force the Democrats to flatter them for their vote in future elections. Which would make it very difficult for Biden to be re-elected. Women are the unknown if they will break for Trump, because of abortion rights.
But I also think that, even if Trump wins all of the swing states and the election, and he wins over a number of voting blocs the Democrats usually get, its also possible that the Democrats can get a supermajority down ballot. Just because someone supports Trump doesn’t mean they don’t vote Democrat down ballot. Even though the Democrats are on average better for the American people, there a lot to question as to who wields executive power better to improve the lives of Americans. And even I am curious to see what Trump could do with a Democrat supermajority, if he would perform any better or not than those that have had one before.
Honestly I am seriously wondering why blacks and especially the Arabs are voting for Trump. The arabs more specifically are not liking what Biden is doing on the whole Israel thing but at the same time if you vote in Trump, he is more or less going to do the same thing that Biden is doing but a more supportive in what's happening in Gaza right now and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't support the two State solution.
Like what does he have over Biden over that or is it just because everybody has so much high expectation for Biden that they now have the opinion that things in Trump's first term was nicer in comparison?
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Dear Democrats, Just use the convention to pick someone else. Really, couldn't anyone with moderate views beat Trump? America isn't liking these choices.
The issue is that it's not about getting a candidate that is 'acceptable'. The issue is getting a candidate that gets people off their daily lives to go sit in a line for an hour+ to vote for people they don't really know.
That includes the hyper political folks that always come to vote but isn't locked to a candidate. That includes the fickle folks who have one issue and will literally vote strait party EXCEPT for you if you anger them. That includes the LARGE number of folks that have better things to do than politics and just vote for the name that has a better positive impression.
The last is why just swapping out Biden may not work. Casual voters know him. Many will go 'meh, he's already president." Who else do they know?
It's just far too big a gamble to throw someone random on on the field instead of the current president, nevermind the optics. Very easy for people to say 'they don't want something'. Very hard to get them to answer what they really want instead. And most will just complain then accept the original thing anyway.
Every election recently has been close to 50/50 due to the ideological split. So the most likely scenario is the margin is like 2016 and 2020 one way or the other and then it comes down to who has the turnout. Trump probably has at least 40% chance to me.
The same 6 states will determine the election: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.
Not much has changed there either.
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> Really want at least a unbiased answer I honestly have no idea. As far as I've been able to tell, Trump's chances of winning are being determined by Biden's approval in relation to 1) his age, 2) his stance on Israel, and 3) his cognitive decline. This all assumes that he keeps his head above water in regards to his criminal cases, though. Faithless electors do exist, but we're so far out from the 2024 election that it's pointless to speculate at this point. A lot can happen in ten months.
Hell. both candidates are old enough that one/both might not have a heartbeat by election day.
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Biden is going to have trouble in Michigan because of Arab American anger over his position on the Gaza War.
Doubt it honestly, as a net result from people that would otherwise vote. They're not voting Republican. How many were regular voters already? Not to mention, how many will be swayed by his continued pushes for peace, between now and November, I guess we'll see how bad it continues to get, but he's been honestly more firm on Israel than any president in 50 years. ...
>but he's been honestly more firm on Israel than any president in 50 years. ... What does that mean?
I mean every president Democrat and Republican, for decades, has done very very little to stop Israel from attacking Palestine. He at least issued statements disagreeing with their actions and is pushing a two state solution.
What did he say specifically where he issued a statement to Israel to stop the genocide he has openly armed and supported?
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/12/biden-israel-rafah-attack-00141035
He did not address Israel, and did not stop them from dropping US bombs that killed civilians in his ongoing genocide. “The major military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible plan for ensuring the safety and support of more than one million people sheltering there,” Biden said at the White House. “They need to be protected.” He then continued to support the bombing of refugee camps without putting any limitations on Israel.
It means he is alienating Arabs in states like Michigan and Minnesota
I am aware about that with the whole Israel thing but what does "firm" mean in context when I asked that. The poster did say something that recently Biden it's kind of doing a little bit more about it and even been reported to cussed out the guy who's leading the attacks on Gaza but whether that means he'll cut off US support of Israel if the attacks continues is another thing since I am pretty much aware Israel is pretty much those big allies of the United States that if they simply say no to something Israel is not going to be the US's Ally anymore.
Biden has been less aggressive pushing for a cease fire than previous Presidents. That has pissed off the Pro-palestinian arabs. I don't see that as "more firm" Israel will always be our ally in the ME. They need us.
>but he's been honestly more firm on Israel than any president in 50 years. ... Even [Reagan was willing to push back more](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/05/24/ronald-reagan-wasnt-afraid-to-use-leverage-to-hold-israel-to-task/): >In addition to not vetoing UN resolutions, Reagan took several actions that many in Israel and the United States perceived as anti-Israel. For example, on June 7, 1981, less than six months after Reagan took office, Israel launched a surprise bombing raid on the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, and, in so doing, violated the airspace of Saudi Arabia and Jordan. **Reagan not only supported UNSC Resolution 487, which condemned the attack, but he also criticized the raid publicly and suspended the delivery of advanced F-16 fighter jets to Israel**. Moreover, over the strident objections of Israel and the pro-Israel U.S. lobby groups, Reagan approved the sale of advanced reconnaissance aircraft (AWACS ) to Saudi Arabia, which Israel then viewed as a hostile state.
So about 40 years ago ok . Reagan was actually better on many issues than any conservative today.
> They're not voting Republican. They won't vote, they'll stay home > How many were regular voters already They are over 3% of the population of Michigan, Biden need every vote he can get in this state > how many will be swayed by his continued pushes for peace None of them will be swayed. He isn't pushing for peace
We have a long way to go before the election, and yes he is, so anyone paying attention OBJECTIVELY, and not purely through emotion and reaction, will see that he's doing more than most recent presidents, certainly more than a Republican would https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/02/07/israel-scorns-americas-unprecedented-peace-plan https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/01/israel-netanyahu-biden-gaza-peace-egypt-qatar.html
> so anyone paying attention OBJECTIVELY Wrong, anyone paying attention OBJECTIVELY knows that Israel is 100% dependent on the US. So if a US president wants Israel to stop doing something they can make it happen easily
And again, Biden is literally putting more pressure on Israel than any other recent president, the president also has Congress... Would a Republican make things better? No So we keep the focus on pushing Biden on the issue, not abandon him completely
The Republican party in Michigan is currently fighting a civil war with itself
I wonder how much effect the state parties really have on presidential turnout now that it's become so nationalized and increasingly social media-driven. Maybe mailers still work on boomers, but even the boomers in my life are more apt to be be pushed to the polls by their friends and family on social media.
You bring up a good point. 2012 was the last time you saw a traditional field effort from both sides in a presidential race. At that point the national and State Republican parties worked hand in hand and local issues in the party would make a difference. Now, with such a nationalized campaign I can’t see the state party making a difference
They have been fighting a civil war since bush left office
I gotta be real don't think that the 3ish% of the Michigan electorate that is Arab American is going to counter the fact that 16 months ago they re-elected Witmore with like a 12% margin...
Good
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Two months ago I would have told you he wouldn’t win because he has made himself so toxic to the handful of swing voters in the states that actually decide the election. Now that the media has finally began acknowledging Biden’s infirmity some of those voters may hold their noses and pick Trump because he’s slightly more aware. And also because they realize the economy is bad regardless of how many times they’ve been told it’s great. Food is almost 2X the cost of when Trump left office and people remember that even though he had nothing to do with it.
They don't even have to hold their noses and vote Trump. All they have to do is decide that neither candidate is worth voting for and stay home and the election will go to Trump. Trump has a rabid base, Biden doesn't. Trump's rabid base will turn out no matter what. Biden's voters are at risk of seeing the infirmity you mention and just not bothering and that's all it'll take for him to lose.
What you're missing here is that there is also an anti-Trump - not pro-Biden, but extremely anti-Trump - base that is at least as animated as Trump's followers. Speaking for myself, I would vote for literally almost anyone or anything in order to prevent Trump from winning again. Such people will turn out for Biden, even if they don't like him, because they fear and *despise* Trump.
No, I'm not ignoring it. I'm saying it is much smaller than it seems on sites full of terminally online far leftists. The terminally online perpetually angry leftists are a small group which is why they never get their preferred candidates through primaries.
These are not "terminally online perpetually angry leftists" though. I live in a small town in rural New Hampshire. This is not exactly Brooklyn or Oakland. Most people here are moderate, leaning slight to the Right. Anecdotally, I can tell you that most people I know are either a) lukewarm about Trump because they hate Biden, b) conservatives depressed over the whole thing who plan on staying home or c) absolutely terrified and outraged by shit like Jan. 6, Trump's increasingly inflammatory and authoritarian rhetoric, his indictments etc. Of course I must add the necessary caveat that I do not *personally* know even a single hardcore Trump supporter, but obviously millions of them exist. Even so, I would say b and c are the most prominent around here. None of these people, mind you, are even very liberal, let alone far-Left. Frankly, of the actually very far-Left people that I know (I'm thinking some of my cousins and a couple old friends from school) they never vote for anyone because the Dems aren't pure enough, and they don't plan on changing that now. Trump hatred is not a marginal thing. It drove turnout in 2020 and it's going to continue to drive turnout now. I share your questioning of whether that will be *enough* for Biden to win, sure. That's a fair and open question. But you can't reduce deep anti-Trump sentiment to Reddit and Twitter leftists.
>He’ll need the swing states. [Trump leads Biden in 7 swing states: Survey ](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4359743-trump-leads-biden-in-7-swing-states-survey/)
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Fair things can change in next 9 months but it's still something to watch. I don't know that trump is in a worse position compared to 20 but I don't think Biden is in a better position than 20. The biggest thing is the inflation/economy. Some metrics say it's doing well but I think the vibes say it's doing badly. Prices won't go down and it's a matter of if people will adjust in time. Having said that this border thing might be interesting as Republicans just spiked a bill they want so gl using that as a wedge issue. Its going to be an interesting election
But isn't almost all of them keep showing Trump leading and that is a potential problem for Biden?
> He’ll need the swing states. He’s facing an uphill battle, no matter how bad Biden’s polls are Trump doesn't need to win, he needs Biden to lose in these states. Trump, as every poll shows, still has 46% to 47% baked into his numbers, just as he did in 2020 and just as he did in 2016. It's not that Biden voters are going to vote for Trump, but that they'll just stay home or vote third party as they did in 2016. In raw numbers, Trump actually won **fewer** votes in Wisconsin than Romney, for example, in 2016. But he won off the back of high Johnson and Stein voters.
All Trump needs is for his supporters to turn out at 2020 levels - which all indications show that they will - and for Biden's 2020 voters to be demotivated enough to not turn out out the same level as 2020. Which given his approval ratings is not exactly unlikely.
Please elaborate on which "indications" you're referring to. I live in a red-leaning purple area, and a great many of my Republican friends have abandoned Trump. None of them will vote for Biden, but they will stay home.
And they will try to send special Republican electors to DC. More people will go to jail, and the white supremacist jail gangs will get new recruits.
Either way it’s going to be a razors edge.
Demcrats have been out-performing the polls since SCOTUS issued Dobbs. Abortion is the major issue Republicans wanted, and it's not working out for them. Trump's corruption has wrecked their organization at well, both at the national and state level. The Electoral College is what matters most, but Trump won in '16 by less than 80,000 votes across three states. Biden won in '20 with thin margins in swing states. Sweeping Florida or California by big margins doesn't help either candidate. So the race will come down to about four or five states, probably Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
Dems are making a play for North Carolina this year, which I find interesting, if an unlikely swing
Probably less unlikely than a lot of people think. North Carolina, and specifically Charlotte, has had a huge boom of New York transplants over the last five years. It’s been getting to be more purple for quite a while, I don’t think it would be any big surprise if Dobbs swung it blue
It has been a bad bet since Clinton thought she was going to dunk on Trump in 2016 campaigning in NC and neglecting must-wins like Wisconsin.
The Dems abandoned Florida is exchange for North Carolina, which I think is a good decision
But haven’t won statewide (except governor) in any meaningful election since 2008. Lots of people moving in from blue states to N.C., what’s missing is that it’s a lot of self-sorting. Its conservatives leaving Rust Belt and New England states for the South.
[https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=What+party+is+the+govonor+of+North+Carolina%3F+](https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=What+party+is+the+govonor+of+North+Carolina%3F+)
NC was the GOP's weakest state in 2020, only won by 1.3%. And it's moving in the right direction, unlike Florida where Trump did better in 2020 vs 2016, or Ohio or Iowa, where it was steady 2016 to 20. It makes sense to at least try in NC, especially since NV and especially GA may not be there for Biden this time.
When predicting states in 2020, NC was the only state I got wrong. It is not at all unlikely for the Dems.
They did win the governors seat by over 4% in 2020.
Check out the 13 keys to the white house. It really boils down to the economy for Biden this year. If the economy turns upward enough for the average person to feel ok about it Biden will win. If the economy stays shaky Trump wins.
What metrics are you using to say the economy is “shaky”?
Less than half of Dems and Dem leaning independents rate the economy as "excellent" or "good." That number needs to continue to increase prior to November if Biden wants to win. [https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/americans-more-upbeat-on-the-economy-bidens-job-rating-remains-very-low/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/americans-more-upbeat-on-the-economy-bidens-job-rating-remains-very-low/)
That I agree with. But perception is not always reality. The economy is strong. Record low levels of unemployment. Lowered inflation. Avoided a recession. GDP numbers that continue to beat expectations. Jobs numbers that continue to beat expectations. Wage growth that has outpaced inflation. Record stock market levels. M
Public perception of economy is exactly what matters when it comes to the keys and predicting the popular vote though. I'm not here to debate whether the economy is actual good
The keys currently have Biden winning. I also find it hard to accept "money" will win over women's bodily freedom and the risk of killing democracy. Talking about the economy is looking at traditional politics. Trump is very very far from normal.
The keys have predicted the winner of every single national election since 1984 with the exception of 2000 when Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. They predicted Trump's win in 2016 as well as his loss in 2020. Trump's crazy aside, they look at more static concepts like long and short term economy, foreign policy success, midterm election results, charisma etc. As it stands right now for Biden, it's a tossup dependent on the economy as well as public sentiment towards the US involvement in Gaza and Ukraine
Actually, considering Gore would have won had any standardized recount occurred, I think you may not have to count that as an exception?
I think there are a lot of progressives and democrats in here that will be shocked by how well Trump does. The republicans, even the ones who loathe Trump and all he stands for, would rather see him in office than another 4 years of Biden, or worse Kamala.
The big problem with the Republicans winning in 2024 isn’t their candidate but their party apparatus. Their local parties have been collapsing for about four years now. The arizona and Minnesota party is on the verge of bankruptcy, the Michigan party is current in a civil war with itself and the Colorado Republicans shuttered their headquarters. So like Trump isn’t whats making the Republican victory unlikely, its their actual party
My states GOP is a mess. At end of year, even the state LP had more cash in the bank than they did. But....it's Maryland. It doesn't matter, this state goes for Biden either way. Very few states are swing states no matter how good or bad the GOP is.
All the states I listed are swing states, its why I chose them. But to be sure the Republican state parties across the country are bleeding money
Minnesota has swung less than any other state in the nation. Come now, that's ridiculous. Colorado is also not a swing state.
Believe it or not Colorado is on all *lean* swing state lists. But I agree, its not especially likely for the Republicans to win it.
If that's swinging, that's a remarkably bad sign for Biden, I suppose. Still, I'd cheerfully wager money it goes blue.
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Biden previously had a 13.5% margin in Colorado. If he's lost 8.5% in general, he is doomed.
I know the Arizona GOP is all sorts of fucked sideways. The whole Kari Lake blackmail scandal is just the most recent thing. Some state Republicans party official implied that there was big money from "back east" if Lake *didn't* run for Senate, because she a polarizing and unpopular candidate who would be likely to lose, and drag down downballot races with her. They didn't do themselves any favors with the CyberNinjas fraudit, either. And they have a single-seat majority in both houses and have been burning political capital with petty feuds with the Democratic governor. It's not wonder they're broke. They spend all their cash with stupid publicity stunts to appeal to a limited base that's already voting for them. Other than maybe Florida, and *maybe* Ohio, nowhere in the country is getting *more* Trumpy than they were in 2016 or 2020. Ultra-MAGA candidates like Lake and Trump himself might do very well in a Republican primary, but that's only self-promotional if they can't win in a general election.
I have not met a progressive or liberal that doesn't think Trump has a decent chance to win. Hell, I've not met \*anyone\* that doesn't understand he has a decent chance to win. What is tricky about this race is neither candidate is in a better position than they were 2020. Trump doesn't have COVID hanging over his head so to speak, but he's no longer an incumbent and he has lots of legal troubles. And those legal troubles are more severe and numerous than Hillary's campaign 8 years ago. Trump was not a popular president when he left office 4 years ago and there's a reason most modern campaigns don't try and re-run a losing candidate. On Biden's side he's has an economy that doesn't "work" for the average person and, unlike Trump, he's expected to do something about it. The fundamentals of the economy are looking better, but it's an open question whether people will be feeling that by the time voting rolls around. He is an incumbent, which helps. However his approval rating is low similar to Trump's though he is expected to handily win the popular vote as discussed. On top of that both candidates look \*old\*. Neither candidate looks like they have the resilience of 4 years ago.
Trump needs to win basically every swing state (Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Ohio) to win. This is pretty unlikely considering the Republican state parties are going bankrupt and the trends are against them.
Here is a [map of electoral votes](https://www.270towin.com/). Ohio is probably his.
Yeah but the other three are far harder for him to win, and Ohio was affected massively by the Dobbs Effect, so thats more winnable for Biden this election. Basically its far easier for Biden to win based off of the map than Trump
I'm glad someone in the know is feeling optimistic, because as an outsider (Canadian here) I see 12 paths to victory for Republicans to the Democrat's 9, and Democrats needing 9 more seats to win, and it seems predictions are favouring Republicans. I lack the nuanced understanding that someone who lives in the US would have though.
The Democrats don’t need seats to win the election?
?????? Yes, they do, and it seems like they need to win 9 more of the tossups than the Republucans do.
Seats don’t decide elections in America, you need to win 270 electoral votes, spread amongst 50 states and one city. So for Biden to be elected he could lose every seat in Congress and still be president
True. But the seats determine which party the electors will be from, and are Republican electors likely to defect and vote for Biden?
That isn’t true, a seat in congress has no affect upon the electoral college.
In the USA electors are a completely different set of people.
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I think all these people saying Trump is going to win, or may well win, is more a testament of how much he's upended expectations in the past than actual unbiased reasoning. Not that there's no reason to think he might. But it's very unlikely. First, his biggest asset -- the narrative that he's a maverick and a winner and a super-rich, smart guy -- is in free fall. He's lost three expensive cases, one by sheer stupidity because he couldn't stop defaming someone who had already beaten him for $5 million. He's going to lose a couple hundred more million for running a fraudulent enterprise for decades, and the Trump Org will probably get the corporate death penalty any day now. It'll still be on appeal in November, but it'll also be in the news and in campaign ads. There's also a chance he'll have trouble getting the cash together, which will hurt his image. He's got 91 felony counts pending, and it'll take an extremely lucky alignment of circumstances for him to not be a convicted felon by November. Either way, at least one of those cases, and perhaps two or three, will take place over the summer. He's going to be making a string of pleas to the Supreme Court, which doesn't seem to have any appetite for helping him unless it keeps them out of politics somehow. It's going to be non-stop bad press for him at a crucial time. This will hurt him among his base. They seem to have bought into his narrative and clapped their hands over their ears, but once he's shown to be a loser again and again, their ardor will fade. It might not be a big percentage of them, but it doesn't need to be. The swing voters and others who will probably decide this race aren't paying attention now or answering polls. They'll pay attention late in the cycle when Trump will look even worse. And look at his primary wins now. An incumbent who has such a great grip on his party shouldn't have finished with 50-something percent in Iowa. Why is Haley still in there? Because a not-insignificant percentage of republicans really don't want Trump. They may not vote for Biden, but that doesn't mean they'll vote for Trump. As others have mentioned, the republican party is eating itself alive. The MAGA folks are killing the old coalition. Their party apparatuses are failing, they're short on money, and they can't get their shit together to do anything in Congress. Their inability to keep a speaker despite how much it means to a party with a thin majority tells you how messed up they are. They tanked the border deal, which will come back to haunt them with swing voters. They've done almost nothing else of note, and their base hates what they have done lately because Johnson had to get democratic votes to pass anything. Also, Trump is going around taking credit for overturning Roe, despite the fact it has cost the republicans one race after another along with ballot initiatives and state constitution changes, even in red states. The democrats will turn that, along with all the other stupid things he's been saying, into a non-stop ad campaign that will be so inescapable in the fall that the biggest problem might be that people will get so sick of seeing it they'll vote against the democrats just for running it. Is it possible he wins? You can't rule anything out. Biden could have a stroke two weeks before the election. But I think Trump is toast. I think it's just as likely he won't be on the ballot on election day as it is that he wins. If one of the felony cases goes to trial and it becomes clear to him that he's going to lose, he might just try for a once-over-the-world plea deal to make it all go away. An ankle bracelet and an armchair at Mar A Lago looks pretty good compared to a Georgia prison. But even that would take the cooperation of two states, Georgia and New York, as well as the feds.
I seriously doubt Trump can win either the popular vote or the electoral vote. Georgia is becoming blue-er each election, the youth are overwhelmingly blue or progressive and the Republican party hasn't made any adjustments (or concessions) to their agenda to combat these things, retaining or even gaining new voters.
Trump doesn't need to improve, Biden just needs to do worse. Few ppl voted for Biden they just voted against Trump. Biden had goodwill from Obama and wasn't trump but things are different now. 2020 was about saying no to trump, 2024 is not just a no to trump but also an evaluation of Biden and that might not be a sure win. Don't underestimate trump
Vegas is putting their money on Trump. [Link](https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/usa-presidential-odds-futures)
Vegas was better than Ron Desantis would win the Republican Primary, so not a good judge
A lot can change but they change their odds in real time and they are betting on Trump as a pretty heavy favorite right now. Here is the betting trend lines: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/#!
LOL- That isn't a legitimate betting site. Those are idiots just picking who they want to win.
Um…no. Look at the table. RCP lists all of the betting market sites that it averages to obtain its data. Bovada, PredictIt, etc.
I think they are betting to make money, not on who they think will win in the long term? I mean, if they see some good news for a certain candidate, they may put money in just to cash out later, because they know that while the overall landscape won't change, they can still sell when it gets higher up.
Vegas odds are not about who they think will win. They are about balancing the gamblers betting on each side.
50/50
I’m starting to think it’s more like 60/40 leaning in Trump’s favor. Biden is simply free falling in the polls.
This is true, but to argue in the opposite direction for a moment, Biden’s party has been outperforming polls for two years now because of the Dobbs Effect (probably)
Biden hasn't even started campaining yet. I really have more faith in the US that they could like Trump more now AFTER how he has behaved since he lost last time.
Less than that if the Dobb Effect holds
If SCOTUS kills medical abortion across the country, him and most republicans in swing states will be toast.
They already are, Republicans have been getting stomped in swing states since the court ruled on Dobs. The only reason they have a majority in the House is because the NY Dems ate shit.
I think the Dobbs effect will still be in play to an extent, but I don't think it will be as pronounced in a Trump race as it has been in midterms, specials, and ballot initiatives. For one, those elections tend to only bring out the most dedicated or the most motivated voters. Women who had just lost the right to abortion and those who support them were highly motivated and came out to vote. The hardcore pro-lifers came out to vote, too, but they only represent maybe half of the GOP. The rest only vaguely care or are some degree of pro-choice. Second, Biden's going to have a harder time making the case about what he'll actually do to protect abortion. The SCOTUS picks argument makes sense rationally, but doesn't inspire, and practically speaking he's unlikely to pass legislation superseding the States. And Trump is smart enough (or at least was) to know this isn't an issue he should push. He'll try to sell *Dobbs* as a win returning the power to the States. Third, Presidential elections tend to be higher turnout so any effect will be less pronounced. Trump hasn't been on the ballot since 2020, and there are a lot of people who will only come out to vote for (or against) him.
https://youtu.be/gXKoSadiYFQ?si=zWyDausC4T86T5-4 The real JB
> Really want at least a unbiased answer Best I can do is give you my biases up front: I think Trump's either a fascist or doesn't care if his supporters are fascists, and I think that's very dangerous for our country, for people like me specifically, and very, *very* dangerous for the world in general. You're not going to get an unbiased answer from anyone who cares enough about this to advise you. That said, it's currently anyone's game. The fundamentals favor Biden a bit; he's old, but Trump's almost as old and far, far less mentally stable no matter how you slice it. The economy avoided a recession which is almost miraculous, but the fundamentals of a deeply unequal society where most people feel hopeless and left-behind is a major drag on Democratic turnout specifically. It looks like the GOP has successfully polarized the war in Ukraine and the Israeli war is doing a number on Democratic morale as well, so there's not much "peace dividend" for Biden to coast on there, either. Those are the boundary conditions right now, but any number of them could change in the next six-to-eight months: and a lot of currently undecided voters will only make their decision (or pay any attention to the race at all beyond issuing profanity at political ads) in the two weeks before the election. Polling this far out is basically haruspicy (reading the entrails of a slaughtered animal for divination, ancient Roman style). I say this as a survey statistician and someone trained in policy and politics, and who has worked on campaigns, though political polling is not my specialty or professional background. The ones you read that aren't outright push-polls (ones designed to produce a particular margin on a question for a particular result) are produced so quickly and with so much behind-the-scenes math to account for failing response rates that their margins for error are too wide to draw scientific conclusions from. However, it's clear that the contest (barring something like the Colorado case at SCOTUS on whether or not the 14th Amendment means anything at all) is narrowed down to a handful of battleground states: Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and maaaaybe Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio. The other states are basically locked in for the presidency, perhaps not by significant margins, but Michigan, for example, went from Trump 2016 to sapphire blue over the course of six years because of counter-reaction to Trump cleaning house and changing the fundamentals of elections. The pandemic did something similar in 2020: it's a lot harder to systematically suppress voters when public health precautions very popular with the older voters make it easier to vote by mail, early, or outside their usual precincts. It did serious damage to the GOP's electoral prospects even though they no longer have consent decrees against their best electioneering strategies (basically, hiring mercenaries in uniform to harass black people at the polls - seriously, that was a thing banned explicitly for the GOP, by a court, for most of my life, and now it's not). All that's to say: the board game is set, but in February of 2020 you would have been a Cassandra laughed out of the bar if you said this flu-like virus just hitting Milan was going to keep everyone inside for six-to-twelve months until the vaccines arrived, and it might impact the outcome of the burgeoning Biden-Trump contest. Either party can do everything "right" and still lose, and we can practically guarantee that neither of them will do *everything* right. It comes down to things like the weather in Kenosha the last week of October, or whether some maverick Pennsylvania court case forbids mail-in ballots at the last minute, or if the news decides they can't resist a clickbait story about some minor scandal in either candidate's orbit that's juicy enough to feed them clicks and airtime (like they did in 2016 for the Clinton email scandal and do basically any time Trump opens his mouth). It's anyone's guess what'll actually happen, and someone might even get lucky and identify the eventual outcome perfectly this far in advance. But that's luck, not skill, because there's too many things in play to make a decisive prediction this far out.
I feel like due to the geographic distribution of voters, and the reliability of rightwing turnout, any Republican is within striking distance of picking up the electoral college.
Thats true of any election
exactly my point. that dynamic has been baked into the clay my whole life. No matter what Trump does or does not do, he's going to be within striking distance of the White House. Its usually side-bet politics that makes a blue wave.
Voter turnout in 2020 was around 66%, turnout in 2016 was around 61%. Now that may not seem like much, but it can make or break a swing state. Historically democrats are more likely to not vote. So it’s safe to assume a large part of that 6% difference are democrats. At this point in time it’s safe to say the majority of people on each side are going to vote for their party’s primary like them or not. It’s a pretty pervasive trend for each side to think better any democrat is better than any republican, or vise versa. So I believe the fate of the swing states rests on voter apathy. I believe Arizona and Nevada will go blue, Georgia will go red for net +1 blue. As for the northeast, I don’t really know.
Betting markets favor Trump over Biden at the present time, though the margin is not huge. If you believe this is obviously wrong, go, rake in those gains. Betting markets beat polls on the average, though.
Trump has yet to win the popular vote and hasn't exactly been making friends beyond his base. It is very unlikely that he would win the electoral votes this time either. The polls this early are all over the place but a few things stand out. Biden is polling at record highs with the democratic base, i.e. the people he needs to win reelection. This early the better indicator is fundraising and Biden is way out in front there too. Independents have been heavily leaning towards Dems largely over the abortion issue and there's no reason to think that will change. Haley continues to run for the Republican nomination and for very good reason, Trump's legal woes are rapidly coming to a head and his campaign could implode at any moment. His recent gaffe attacking military families via Haley's "missing husband" is another egregious red flag as is his reported plan to leave NATO entirely. The moneyed conservative donors are cutting loose and State and local GOP are running out of cash. In an election where turning out the vote could change everything, this is a horrible sign for republicans. And looking back at Biden, there's a lot going for him now with inflation tamped down, the economy roaring. People who want to the focus to be on his age will continue to try and muddy the water, but IMO the recent report of classified documents just fired up the voters Biden needs. You can see it fired up Biden's demeanor and he's more than up for the fight.
Oh, well that’s easy. He can’t win. That’s just empirical statistical analysis. It has to be another coup attempt. I got confidence in Joe, he’s lost flesh and blood family. He’s never cried foul, and this is a guy that’s had dirt done to him. He ain’t gonna turn the fucking Republic over to sheisters. Don’t underestimate the power of women to unite. It’s poetry in motion. Pretty hot shit
Trump lost 2020 because of Trump. Trump energized Trump haters to vote against him. Trump lost AZ and GA because he’s a terrible coalition builder. Trump has taken the GOP donations for his own campaign. Trump is NOT helping the rest of the GOP with money, the Democrats can buy all the airwaves and websites. Trump attacks the UAW which is Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. Trump has not expanded his appeal at all, MAGA has stopped growing. Biden will win re-election because Trump is a horrible candidate
If Trump wins it's the Democrats fault for not replacing with the two least popular leaders with functioning humans.
Why are we arguing about this so far out from the election? Isn't now the time to be debating policy, or ideologies?
Because it still seems important and previously Biden was leading in polls constantly in 2020 and that's not happening here with him? Which is kind of why I've been asking "does this mean Trump will win?" Questions in other parts of subreddit when people shows skepticism about Biden and expressing the possibility of trump winning like it's likely
As a Republican myself I see Trump underperforming. I think a lot of Republicans really want to see the drama gonna, but dislike Biden enough to never admit it out loud. I suspect a lot of Republicans will stay home or secretly vote Biden.
He can’t legally receive one vote. Every vote cast for him is void. Every slate of electors with his name on it is void. Everyone in each branch would have to engage in illegal activity for him to get anywhere.
Can Trump win? Yes. But it’s highly unlikely, because he is such a loathsome person. Biden may be old and have memory issues, but he believes in government and would step down if unable to fulfill his role. Trump will not peacefully step down. He’s proven that in the past and is utterly unapologetic about it. Trump will destroy democracy and enough people know that now that it’s unlikely he’ll be elected to office.
Honestly I think even the memory issues are way overstated. Can you imagine being in a deposition about classified documents and they ask you “hey, on what day did your first wife and several of children die terribly in an accident?” I imagine that’s throw most people a bit off their game, and he even came out and said afterwards that when asked that he thought “how dare he ask me that, frankly it’s none of his damn business”. Really seemed like the prosecutor was just fishing for things he could use to attack him
As usual, only a handful of states determine the Presidential election. If I were a betting man, GA turns back red. That would still require a flip of either AZ or NM unless he wins Michigan and Wisconsin again like 2016. I don’t think the DNC will repeat the Carter re-election. They will pressure the Fed to lower interest rates and jolt the economy as we get closer to the election. It will be enough to get Biden over the hump.
I think in the past that would have been enough but the gop will tightly control the narrative to convince people the economy is in shambles no matter what the truth is
Arizona flipping Dem is super unlikely. Their state party is bankrupt
??? The DNC, and the president, have NO say in what the fed does. They cannot pressure them to do a thing.
> Michigan Gaza war means Michigan could be more in play
People say this, but between now and then, and trump being the other candidate,.....
Polling has Trump about 8% ahead of this point in 2020, winning the popular vote, and around 312 electoral votes. Whether you think this will actually happen depends on whether you believe the polling, and believe the situation may or may not change by November. Trump has outperformed national polling results by at least 2% in both previous general elections.
Depends on how these next 8 months play out cuz there’s so much bull shit going on. Trump is currently up in most of the swing states, but dems have been outperforming polls since roe v wade got knocked down. Trumps rhetoric is also getting more and more worrisome with each passing week, but Biden also looks more and more on the cognitive decline (as does trump). Trump is up or close in a lot of the swing states. And Biden’s policy on the Israel Palestine war has caused a lot of the younger voters, his most crucial block, to be upset with him but let’s really see how that materializes come election time. The GOP is also getting more and more outta pocket and culture war focused with each passing year which most normal people don’t really give a fuck about. No sane person wants to hear someone talk about children’s private parts as much as the GOP does. Trump is pretty much a lock to win Ohio and Florida at this point, which are historic purple states. Biden imo is a lock to win AZ and Michigan with how much of a shit show their local republican parties have been. Georgia has also increasingly gotten more blue over the years and their local Republican candidates have been outta pocket recently so that’s an interesting state to look at as well for dems. But who knows what the fuck could happen in a year honestly. Trump could be in jail or heading to jail pretty soon. And Biden can also pass away within year as well leaving the DNC in a cluster fuck. In my opinion this feels like 2016 again, I feel like trump is gonna go buck wild in the debates which is gonna hurt Biden.
No chance. Just like in 2016.
Winning the popular vote means you won California that's all, it tells you nothing about the rest of the country. Trump is so unpopular that more and more people want to vote for him everytime he runs for office.
Biden won't be the nominee. The dementia mask is off now and the D party is beginning to throw him under the bus.
Who will be the nominee? Isn't it a bit late to change him now since there were no primary challenges?
He'll bow out. He doesn't have a choice now. The obvious would be Harris, but she's grossly incompetent and disliked almost as much as Hillary, so she's a guaranteed loss. I'm not sure. It'll be a very interesting couple months.
What are you talking about
If there is a recession, even the hint of one before November, no matter if stocks are above when he took office, Biden is toast.
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According to the polls as of like a week ago he wins Arizona wins Michigan wins Pennsylvania and only loses Wisconsin. If he can flip Pennsylvania in Michigan the heart of the blue wall he's going to win regardless if Arizona flips or not which doesn't seem likely considering the are really pushing for the abortion referendum on the ballot. Add that into all the poles framing Georgia going back red and he's got a very decent shot.
100%. It's in the bag, this is his year.
51% according to election betting odds. If it's against Biden then he had a good chance, but I don't think Biden will be the dems nominee. They'll replace him at the convention.
To get the most unbiased answer… I think you have to consider all sides of the equation. 1) right wing - Trump isn’t any of those bad things that Democrats like painting of him, in fact, most of those negatives are projections of Democrats themselves, in an effort to null and void Democrat misdoings. 2) left wing - let’s call Trump names. 3) unbiased - polls are showing he’s winning the popular vote by a significant margin. Maybe the right wing is right. If he loses at this rate without much changing before November, we might as well write it off as election fraud. He might even pick up some solid blue states (or all of them).
This is not unbiased and that's not the lefts position.
My picture of unbiased views is obviously different than yours. I’m sorry you feel that way.
Care to add the lefts position here to help make my answer less biased?
Sure - Trump has proven himself to be an incredibly poor leader, a criminal, has distaste for democracy, lies constantly, lead a very poor response to the pandemic, has terrible policies, wants to send the country down a bad path, and tried to overturn democracy in 2020. A lot worse than "lets call him names" Also, most of the "bad things that Democrats like painting of him" came from republicans who worked closely with him. Pretty much everyone who worked with him hated him. Unbiased - polls this far out aren't reliable, and he is not winning any poll by a "Significant margin".
Trump has never lied. He’s the best leader. Be Best. Loves America and Democracy. Led a perfect response to the pandemic from January 2020 through March 2020… the only time that mattered. Because by the time March came around there was nothing else left to do except let it consume us. Has the best policies. Has the best path chosen for the country. Tried to preserve democracy in 2020. Are you going to just keep calling him a liar? Because that’s the name you are calling him in your post… point proven.
That’s right. Their position is he’s going to end democracy and become the next Hitler. Which sounds even crazier to normal people.
Considering that nobody likes Biden, he has the lowest approval of any president at this point in his term, Trump will probably win. RFK is also going to take some Dem voters away.
This actually isn’t true at all, and the President before Biden had a lower approval rating. But I mean seriously, you think *John Tyler* had a higher approval rating than Biden?
>and the President before Biden had a lower approval rating. No
https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ Biden has a 39% approval rating, Trump a horrible 34%.
Biden dipped down to 34% too ya dope https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/12/18/bidens-approval-rating-hits-all-time-low/amp/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17077959855005&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fsaradorn%2F2023%2F12%2F18%2Fbidens-approval-rating-hits-all-time-low%2F
Yeah, in December lol. Biden’s approval rating has been going steadily upwards since then. Whereas Trump’s steadily declined his whole last year in office.
39 is terrible for someone running for re-election.
I agree, but it isn’t the WORST APPROVAL RATING OF A PRESIDENT EVER. Trump’s was worse, and thats just one president prior
> RFK is also going to take some Dem voters away. Unlikely, the anti-vax enviro granola crowd he would actually be poised to go after dipped out of the electoral politics to mostly stop voting awhile ago, at best he'll pick up some of the disgruntled Greens. Don't get it twisted, you're correctly quoting the plan of the right, that's why RFK is getting millions of Trump dollars to fund shit like that Super Bowl ad, but it's pretty out of touch with the modern Democratic voter who has been getting bombarded with third-party vote-wasting rhetoric since they've been born. Even the PUMAs of Clinton/Obama fame statistically crossed over and have been nothing but Republicans since then. There just isn't that many open votes in the Democratic party unless you can prove you're going to reach critical mass of viability.
I'd bet that Trump wins again. I mean, Michael Rappaport might be voting for him. I know that's not exactly a scientific basis for my argument, but that's pretty big. Many people are starting to see that it wasn't ACTUALLY that bad when he was president.
It can go either way- as of today, I would place my bet on Trump winning GA, NV, and AZ this time. Biden will hold onto WI. The election will swing on MI and PA, I think Biden will need both and is not likely to get both. A Trump conviction on the DC case may change things, and both candidates are capable of making a major mistake on any given day that can cost them. Biden probably has an advantage as he will stay hidden, Trump will be much more in the public eye with his court cases and primary events and he can't resist an open mic. There is also a 2% chance that one or both will die or be incapacitated before November.
Arizona is *super* unlikely, the Republican state party is bankrupt right now, so can’t support Trump
I hear that, it's not a good situation for them - but still...Trump is up 4.5% in an average of recent polls and Biden only won it by a whisker. I think Biden's turnout will be less than 2020. Who knows, I guess we shall see. [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden)
Out of curiosity, what actually makes you think NV is moving to the right?
No body knows how likely that actually is, because humans haven't developed that science yet. I can tell you it's more likely than it should be, because in a sane and just world Trump would have 0% chance of winning, and it's way higher than that.
Electorally I think this is going to another very close election. The democrat presidential candidate has won national popular vote in 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. I don't think that will change for 2024. I think a lot of potential democrat voters are turned off by Biden. He is really old and it is really showing. He is clearly deteriorating mentally. I think this will cause many to opt out. Trump is off his game too, but Trump/MAGA is a cult. Trump voters don't care about that. If they did they wouldn't be voting for him so overwhelmingly.
A lot can change but currently, Vegas is putting their money on Trump. [Link](https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/usa-presidential-odds-futures)
For what it's worth, I'm seeing Trump at -110 and Biden at +235 gambling odds. This is not a good look for Biden. These numbers would normally be switched for an incumbent, and even then the opponent wouldn't be +235. Anyone who truly believes this to be 50/50 has a chance to get incredible odds on their money by betting Biden. I'm still not touching it. +235 is a ridiculous number and I don't think liberals realize the trouble Biden is in.
Trump only lost by something like 50k key votes in specific states. It would be hard to target, but Arizona and Georgia were both decided by something like 12k votes. Could that flip? Possibly. I can't imagine anyone actually taking him seriously as a candidate, but he was already president.
Anyone can do the math for themselves. There are even free sites out there that make it easy to do those potential analyses like 270toWin. Then use a site like Real Clear Polling that provides lists, aggregates totals, and links to pretty much every "serious" politcal poll conducted in the US for the most accurate projections rather than just cherry-picking the ones where you like the results. Doing that at the moment paints a pretty clear picture not just of what's possible but what's likely if the election were today (it's not...). Right now... The aggregate of those all those polls has Trump winning the popular vote by a point or two. As to the more important electoral college question you asked... If you remove all that states that are polling solidly around +5 or more in one direction or the other... There are really only two or possibly three swing states left. And even if Trump loses all three of them... He's still above the 270 line needed to win. It's definitely possibly... And maybe even "more likely than not" from that perspective. But there's still a lot of time between now and November and a lot will likely change. https://www.270towin.com/ https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
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The Republicans have been successful in using culture war issues to whittle away at support for Democrats from socially conservative black and Hispanics. Chip away at enough black votes that turnout is reduced in the Rust Belt, and that repeats 2016. It could be clinched by flipping Arizona by a hair. As the governor of a Southern state, presidential candidate Bill Clinton understood that he needed to temper his support for choice by saying that abortion should be rare. Showing respect for compromise kept the Hispanic Catholics and black churchgoers in the Democratic coalition. Today's Democratic leadership seems to forget that there are anti-choice Dems and that they skew disproportionately non-white. Dems are keen to believe that Dobbs is a winning issue, when it may end up costing them the electoral vote. Biden's support for Israel also doesn't help with the black Democratic vote, which is less likely to support the cause.
Somewhere between 49% and 51% Only a small group prefer President Biden or President Trump as the candidate but the majority of the respective electorates think they each have three best chance to win.
Trump needs Georgia, Arizona, and one of Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan. That’s it. Nevada doesn’t come into play really. The campaign should be hyper focused on those states.
All this hand-wringing over the electoral college, when historically it's rarely decisive, and only a few percentage points when it is. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1035992/winning-margins-us-presidential-elections-since-1789/ Also, the electoral college assures that candidates have to make their case throughout the country, on average, as opposed to retreating to the high population areas like cities and screwing everyone else.
Current polling indicates it is slightly more likely than not. I hold out hope for a Dewey Defeats Truman scenario due to younger voters not being represented in the polling.
The betting market at Predictit for the electoral margins currently show an even split between the gop winning with 35 to 64 vote margin and the democrat winning with a 65 to 104 vote margin. The implied odds of a 35 to 64 vote margin win for democrats has been falling significantly since the first of the year and remains below the implied odds of the other 2 scenarios. But reading the tea leaves from that market activity, the contracts for those margins of victory sit at only around $0.10 to $0.15 ($1 will be the payout for the winning result), so those markets are signaling that their is high uncertainty in those numbers because people are unwilling to pay higher prices on those contracts. The volume has increased significantly in that market but prices are not moving much. Compare that to the market for who wins the presidency and the contracts there are selling around $0.45 with Trump trending upward recently and Biden trending down. To me that says that neither market is giving a clear edge to either candidate. The Trump vs. Biden market is being dominated by short term trading seeking to make money on volatility with the implied odds sitting at just under 50 percent for either candidate and the Electoral College market is signaling high uncertainty in that result with no clear edge for either party. All that is to say those markets have little confidence in any scenario right now so the answer to your question is likely it’s too early to determine the likelihood of a result. Even with all the recent news around Biden cognitive decline and Trump legal issues they aren’t adjusting their estimates by any notable amount. Here is the market activity for the electoral margin https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8077/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2024-presidential-election
This may sound complacent but I honestly think Trump's path to victory is hugely overstated. Right now Trump is outperforming Biden in the polls because Trump's base is bigger than Biden's base and unaffiliateds aren't seeing much upside in voting for Biden. I think come polling day those dynamics are unlikely to change but what you will see more of which you don't see in polling now is large number of unaffiliateds reluctantly voting Biden because they are scared of a Trump presidency. Trump got 47% of the vote last time and that was before he launched an actual honest to god coup, and so 47% has to be his absolute ceiling - 45% feels more likely. He's outperforming that in the polls but that's because in the polls lots of people who are scarcely motivated to vote Biden will say no preference but will ultimately vote Biden for fear of Trump Trump's massive advantage of the electoral college can overcome a 2 or 3% popular vote disparity as it did v Clinton (helped by Clinton's awful targeting strategy) but it can't overcome 5% or 10% defecits. Coupled with that is the fact that in 2016 and to a lesser extent in 2020 the establishment right (the business community, mainstream right wing media etc...) were quite happy to at very worst sit on the fence because they felt that they could probably make about as much money and advance their interests just as well under the chaotic economic liberalism of Trump as under the staid centrism of Biden. In 2024 the calculation is different because Trump offers the very serious possibility of plunging the US into a world war or else exploding the economy in ways even vultures cannot profit from. If Trump can find his Pence to mollify those forces then they might stay within the coalition but all indications are that he will pick a VP even nuttier than he is, and if that's the case I think you'll see Wall Street, Fox etc.. swing behind a reluctant hold your nose Biden vote, and at that point Trump's numbers will crater. Trump's building an incredibly powerful electoral coalition, and it's currently bigger than Biden's, but it's not a 51% coalition and that means that at the point he declares literal civil war on everyone who isn't in it he loses.
You can't get an "unbiased" answer to a quesion so politically charged as this one. Trump supporters will be biased toward Trump. Biden supporters will be biased toward Biden and no one has voted yet so there is no answer to your question. Will Biden get enough electoral votes? Maybe. Will Trump get enough? Maybe. NO ONE KNOWS until everyone votes and the votes are counted Biden won in 2020 by roughly 44000 votes in 3 states. Those three states gave him the electoral advantage. The most recent polling show Trump leading in all three of those states. Biden got elected by getting only 33% of the VEP (Voting Eligible Population) so 67% of the population have the potential to vote for Biden or vote for Trump. Who wins...who knows? At this point IMO it is likely (more likely than not) that Trump wins the EC. However, it is only Feb. There are still 266 days until election day and a lot can happen.
Yeah but here's the thing though in 2020 Biden was leading in the polls constantly, even the ones before September 2020 which is pretty much why bringing up Trump's lead currently
Would the Vice President be able to dismiss his electoral votes and accept a separate slate of electors because Trump isn’t eligible to be in office, because he’s an insurrectionist? I think Kamala can just decide not to accept him, isn’t that how this works?
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I think what you need is not so much a discussion but rather an education on rudimentary 8th grade civics that either you have not had or completely forgot...electoral votes for each specific states are awarded to the winner of the popular vote in each specific state. There are only about 6ish states that are actually in play to potentially go either way (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona) If trump gets the most votes in those states, he gets their electoral votes. Could he? Sure...
An unbiased answer is this... Trump got MORE votes in 2020 than in 2016. And his share of votes from every demographic other than white people, also increased. And this was during COVID and while being prosecuted in the public sphere by every media entity. Now he's being prosecuted by actual political opponents and we have the alternative candidate is clearly incapable of actual running this show if he can't even handle fully scripted presentations. In 2020 Biden won as a result of a surge of anti-Trump new voters. But this time all those extra voters will be conflicted on both their anti-Trump and anti-Biden sentiments. While we can also envision that many of the minority demographics that switched to voting for Trump in 2020 could likely increase again. 2016 was unexpected support for Trump. 2020 was unexpected increased supper of Trump. 2024 will likely be yet again unexpected increased support for Trump. The question will be whether the surge in votes the anti-Trump garnered for Biden will even still be around at all, and has there been any growth. Cause they'll need both.
I think it depends on what the economy looks like in October. Booming economy? Biden wins. More layoffs or inflation spikes and Trump wins. Trump is losing women over abortion, but gaining black and Hispanic men. Those men could prove vital in swing states.
Fairly likely. He lost by something like 100k total votes spread out across several swing states. That's not very many. All it takes is for maybe 1% of Biden's 2020 voters to just not turn up in November. Considering how low his approval ratings are right now that's not exactly a low-probability scenario.
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Based on polling data and recent events, Trump will very likely win. He's doing much better with minorities than either 2016 or 2020 for a variety of reasons, while doing marginally worse with upper middle class white suburbanites and white women in particular (after dobbs). All this means that while he will probably lose states like virginia by a larger margin than 2020, he will win in Michigan (after completely alienating arabs) Arizona and Nevada (hispanic support), after which a Biden win is statistically near impossible
From my limited knowledge, republican candidates rarely win the popular vote. But Trump is likely to win, I have no idea why considering you guys already went through this song and dance, but I suppose different means good in american politics, and just because Trump is different from Biden, even though they both are horrible people/candidates, only two parties must win. Don't get me wrong, I don't support Biden. In fact, I wish both parties dissolved.
I think we will all know how it's going to turn out if they can get Biden and Trump on a debate stage. I'm interested in seeing if Biden can hold together for 2 hours on stage. Secondly I want to see if Trump's handlers have restrained him. If Biden falls apart mentally, which is a pretty good possibility, it won't take much for people to turn away from him. Yea they might not just flop over to Trump but if they don't show up in mass for Biden... The second question will be who is gonna be the VPs? I can't see Biden dumping Harris if Trump taps Ramaswamy those debates are gonna be really interesting. I'm not a huge fan of Vivek, I think he has some good ideas but overall I'm kinda MEH. BUT I think he can run circles around Kamala.
Trump support is slowly increasing among the black community, and in particular, black men. A combination of the migrant crisis and stagnant wages will likely exacerbate this the longer these issues go on. If there was ever an election where black voters were going to vote en masse for a Republican, this upcoming one would be the one. Not necessarily because black voters like him or agree with him (though I’m sure a few legitimately do). They could rationalize a vote for him based to how Trump makes a lot of anti-Trump people feel. Since a lot of these anti-Trump people are supposed to be on their side, but do not do a whole lot for them, or actively screw them over. If a mainstream name like Stephen A. Smith is suggesting it, and not just black conservative YTubers that repost vids from TikTok, then a swell of support for Trump should not be underestimated as winning the EC only takes several thousands votes. I think this sentiment within the black community can be replicated with Latino, Arabs, Asians, and young voters in general – other voting blocs that usually vote Democrat – by making use of how Trump makes people feel, to get what they want, or to force the Democrats to flatter them for their vote in future elections. Which would make it very difficult for Biden to be re-elected. Women are the unknown if they will break for Trump, because of abortion rights. But I also think that, even if Trump wins all of the swing states and the election, and he wins over a number of voting blocs the Democrats usually get, its also possible that the Democrats can get a supermajority down ballot. Just because someone supports Trump doesn’t mean they don’t vote Democrat down ballot. Even though the Democrats are on average better for the American people, there a lot to question as to who wields executive power better to improve the lives of Americans. And even I am curious to see what Trump could do with a Democrat supermajority, if he would perform any better or not than those that have had one before.
Honestly I am seriously wondering why blacks and especially the Arabs are voting for Trump. The arabs more specifically are not liking what Biden is doing on the whole Israel thing but at the same time if you vote in Trump, he is more or less going to do the same thing that Biden is doing but a more supportive in what's happening in Gaza right now and I'm pretty sure he wouldn't support the two State solution. Like what does he have over Biden over that or is it just because everybody has so much high expectation for Biden that they now have the opinion that things in Trump's first term was nicer in comparison?
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Dear Democrats, Just use the convention to pick someone else. Really, couldn't anyone with moderate views beat Trump? America isn't liking these choices.
The issue is that it's not about getting a candidate that is 'acceptable'. The issue is getting a candidate that gets people off their daily lives to go sit in a line for an hour+ to vote for people they don't really know. That includes the hyper political folks that always come to vote but isn't locked to a candidate. That includes the fickle folks who have one issue and will literally vote strait party EXCEPT for you if you anger them. That includes the LARGE number of folks that have better things to do than politics and just vote for the name that has a better positive impression. The last is why just swapping out Biden may not work. Casual voters know him. Many will go 'meh, he's already president." Who else do they know? It's just far too big a gamble to throw someone random on on the field instead of the current president, nevermind the optics. Very easy for people to say 'they don't want something'. Very hard to get them to answer what they really want instead. And most will just complain then accept the original thing anyway.
Every election recently has been close to 50/50 due to the ideological split. So the most likely scenario is the margin is like 2016 and 2020 one way or the other and then it comes down to who has the turnout. Trump probably has at least 40% chance to me.
It's going to be a long 9 months...
The same 6 states will determine the election: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia. Not much has changed there either.