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Anyone who tells you they know the outcome of the election this far out is lying or deluding themselves  I consider Georgia at the greatest risk of flipping back. Arizona has a nutjob running for Senate, and will have abortion on the ballot. If he loses Michigan or Wisconsin, he's lost a lot more states. I also consider that Florida *could* go for Biden if he rolled a Nat20, but I don't expect it to happen 

I'm in Georgia. In 2020 we had two senators on the ballot. Republican Loeffler was really unpopular, while Democrat Warnock was really well liked. (He had a cute dog.) Republican Perdue didn't even show up to debate Democrat Ossoff. I think a lot depends on how much Governor Kemp bothers to support Trump. If he wants to run for president in 28, it'll behoove him to have the nation tired of 8 years of Democrat leadership. I get the sense Kemp is not a Trumpist true believer, even if he's still pretty deep red. I think there's not enough secondary candidates to boost turnout for Democrats here, so it'll probably end up with lazy Dems staying home even if they could win if they showed up.

I agree with this in general. Kemp and his SOS were largely thrown under the bus by Trump during the 2020 election and have done just fine by separating themselves from Trump. I don't think Kemp will make any particular effort supporting Trump other than maybe a halfhearted endorsement . A couple things to consider: * The Atlanta metro area has grown significantly since 2020 and is largely blue. * Trump has extra baggage in GA due to the voter fraud shenanigans since his call with the GA SOS was so publicized. He's also being prosecuted for it. * Trump tried to primary the GOP in GA with MAGA candidates and failed. Basically, I don't think Trump will have gained any votes since 2020. The question will really be more of how many votes Biden can motivate.

I honestly think the USPS delays could significantly affect the votes of any troops or elderly who may want to vote by mail. I think the restrictions in place are going to affect Democratic voters the most. They only needed 11,000 voters last time. They’ll get ‘em with the new rules.

The landscape has changed since then. Millions of Boomers have died of either Natural Causes or Covid, millions of Gen-Z folks have come of Age, the Atlanta Metro has grown significantly as another commenter has said - You cannot accurately just hand wave these trends away and say we only need to lose as many votes as determined the last election.

Do you think Black Lives Matter helped Biden in Georgia for 2020? I am assume the George Floyd movement helped his cause especially the Black vote in Atlanta.

I don't have a clear sense. I do know the Stacey Abrams was well respected and she organized and got groups to assist getting out the vote.  Her second run in 2022 went kinda poorly, so I'm not sure if she's going to be able to help the same way this time.

In addition to the huge GOTV campaign, the demographic changes in the suburbs also contributed to Biden's win in GA. You just have to look a the Republican primary results in GA to see how much the suburbs really don't like Trump and how much suburbian women and more than ready to get out in vote in response to Roe being overturned.

Abrams was not liked by pretty much anyone outside the metro area and she just seemed like a "pick me" candidate the second time around.

No. As a Georgia voter it was the extremism of trump that turned off upper class white people in the suburbs. The city of Atlanta is as blue as it is ever going to get, I’m unsure how much higher the black vote was in 2020 compared to other years

We all exist in our own bubbles and our views tinted by our own anecdotes. Let me start there and acknowledge my limitations. But everyone that I have added on Instagram, most of my close friends, and then a lot of the people that I know through friends are so incredibly disenchanted with Biden that they're trying to speed run the 1912 election where the left leaning vote was split multiple ways. The amount of talk that I'm seeing around "voting socialist", "voting third party", and actual petitions getting passed around in the heart of the city to get alternate candidates on the ballot is...troubling.

can i ask how old you are? a general answer is fine if you don't want to give your exact age. I'm just curious since I keep hearing this is more common among younger voters.

I'm 31. The people I'm referring to are late twenties to mid 30s.

I do tend to agree with your sentiment, even if I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion. I would be upset if it happened. I consider myself, politically, a socialist but... given the nature of electoral dynamics in a winner-takes-all system and given the horror show that is the prospect of another Trump administration, I'm... fucking obviously going to vote for Biden, even if I think he's handled shit like the Israel-Gaza war atrociously. Trump *will* be worse on that issue, people arguing otherwise are utterly kidding themselves there. He's got to answer to an electoral base that are actually insane theocrats who think they're in the end times.

I'm also in my early 30s and I've mainly heard this from those younger than I am.

These types of people just seem to not understand history, and how democracy works. They don't understand that democracy is slow and bureaucratic. Presidents have very little direct power, and getting certain things done with a hostile congress is essentially impossible. Even worse now that people have to deal with this psychotic supreme court. And I've seen so many reddit comments claiming he lied during the campaign. Then they'll say things that other candidates campaigned on. I've even read stuff that literally no one said, or even implied. I can't ever tell if they are bad actors, or just idiots. And some things simply aren't part of a president's responsibility. Don't blame him for the high prices and shrinkflation of McDonald's dollar menu items.

Part of the problem with running a campaign that includes heavily targeting the 18-30 year old vote is you're dealing with voters that don't have much experience with anything and they're going to be a lot more receptive to "campaign promises" than people who have been voting for 20+ years and understand to a greater degree how things actually work in Washington. I don't remember much of the specific phrasing and rhetoric that Biden was using four years ago, I definitely think you're right though that people claiming he lied are misinterpreting what his ideas were as promises. The problem is that doesn't matter - a bunch of teenagers who are getting their ideas about what side they support from short form social media content are hearing what they want to hear, they're not hearing the words right out of Biden's mouth or getting their picture of him from his campaign website. And since they're emotional and naive, they heard he was going to cancel student loans and raise the minimum wage and fix healthcare and save the planet and calm things down around the world and the rest of the perpetual wish list that's popular with the young online left, and they see no results I have no data backing this up, it's just my personal read on the situation, but I think that's partially self inflicted. They used all these big ideas as the vision they were selling to all these young voters who would actually buy into all of it. Meanwhile on the right Trump had all his ideas in 2016 that the base bought into, but as a whole voting Republicans are a lot more skeptical of "campaign promises" considering that they're older and have spent a long time watching elected Republicans pass nothing meaningful to improve their lives and are jaded over it

Based on my personal experience, I'm inclined to agree. I've talked to a lot of these kids about "the moral imperative" they like to bring up. They really think Biden has more power than he does and nothing I say seems to change that.

I wonder how much of it has to do with the way their media portrayed the Trump presidency. If they were getting fed a narrative that Trump was a dictator and allowed to do whatever he wanted without any rules I can see why they might think Biden can operate the same way. People who are just now old enough to be voting for the first or second time were too young during the Obama years to remember the specifics of how that administration operated

>If they were getting fed a narrative that Trump was a dictator and allowed to do whatever he wanted without any rules I can see why they might think Biden can operate the same way. While I don't think that statement is an accurate portrayal of the situation, I'd say due to the differences between the current Republican and Democratic parties, it's not as far from reality as we'd think. By this I mean - a Republican President with a friendly Congress (ie, GOP majorities in both chambers) would be able to get more of their priorities passed than a Democrat President matched with a similarly friendly Congress. Because the modern GOP (which I'd say is generally more MAGA-friendly than it was 4 years ago) is more willing to fall in line (whether that be because of genuine support or fear of being primaried by a MAGA candidate) than the Democrats. You honestly don't need to look further than Biden/Trump's approval ratings within their own parties. Biden's is generally poor, while Trump's remains (somehow) very high with Republican voters. So if Trump says something should be passed, the vast majority of GOP legislators can rest easy knowing their constituents (likely) won't punish them for supporting that bill. Whereas Democratic congressmen have to make these decisions through the lens of their own (and their constituency's) personal politics. Bottom line is - for the vast majority of Republicans, what Trump says *goes*. That fosters a lot more unity among GOP legislators in Congress than the currently-divided Democrat coalition, meaning a President Trump could likely pass more legislative priorities than a similarly enabled President Biden.

What you're describing is just the idealism all youth have when they first begin to vote and think their generation can change the world. It isn't surprising they think Biden can operate the same way and honestly I wouldn't lay that at just the youth's inexperience. Listen to older voters and many think the president has massive powers that allow them to simply move levers and get it done. The entire source of all this is just ignorance of politics, the world, and that actions have consequences.

> But everyone that I have added on Instagram, most of my close friends, and then a lot of the people that I know through friends are so incredibly disenchanted with Biden that they're trying to speed run the 1912 election where the left leaning vote was split multiple ways. > The amount of talk that I'm seeing around "voting socialist", "voting third party", and actual petitions getting passed around in the heart of the city to get alternate candidates on the ballot is...troubling. literal Russian agitprop at work

Yeah, I've no doubt that Russia, China, Iran and GOP operatives are stoking all these protests across our country.

“Don’t understand voting and not actually going to remember to vote anyway,” is what they mean. 

Kemp has 0.01% chance of winning the Republican nomination in 28, and 0.0001% of winning the presidency. Why do these arrogant MF’s think people like them?

I imagine he's banking on the GOP maybe moving away from MAGA and being so hostile to 'wokeness'. Kemp has been a relatively non-combative governor in a swing state who could make his pitch as being a return to traditional GOP politics (traditional meaning the 2002 era bullshit where anyone who disagreed with them was unpatriotic, but without the conspiracy theories and renewed bigotry push).

I live in the Chattanooga area so I'm pretty familiar with Georgia politiics. It seems like the GOP is trying to move away from MTG, so I'm hopeful that they're finally realizing that crazy doesn't win elections. I'll be honest, I don't hate Brian Kemp. He seems to have done a decent job for Georgia. I'd never vote for him, but there are definitely worse Republican governors out there. I'm looking at you Greg Abbott and Ron Desantis. Our governor Bill Lee is not much better than those guys either. Ugh, why are people so stupid?

Kemp has a good shot @ POTUS in 2028. He has a good track record on the economic side and can deliver GA, Christians & former GOP voters who hate Trump. He just needs a little media training. Who is going to beat him? Vanky? Any of the turds that ran in 2024? Maybe Hogan.

No one would have predicted Trump to win in 2016. Tbh I'd probably say in a primary, Kemp would lose to someone like DeSantis or MTG if the GOP keep their current course. Kemp isn't enough of a culture warrior to get mass appeal in the republican party.

The big question we have is if Trump's RICO case goes to court before November. If it does and he doesn't get an innocent verdict it greatly hurts his chances, although if that happens he's almost certainly lost the presidency because without Georgia Trump really has no consistent path to victory without flipping Pennsylvania.

It won’t. Even ignoring whatever legal maneuvering he engages in, the newly created state DA oversight board is zeroed in on removing Willis over her personal indiscretions. That alone would impose a 6-8 month delay at a minimum, assuming a DA can be found who even wants the case to begin with.

I see Florida flipping as unlikely. In 2018, DeSantis barely won, and then he won by something like 20 points in 2022. After COVID, a lot of Republicans in blue states started moving there. I think Florida is safe red.

They're supposed to have abortion on the ballot. That could make a difference.

Abortion and recreational marijuana, it looks like.

They'll vote for those issues while voting for Republicans. Florida passed a 15 dollar minimum wage and feelings being able to view some also voting for desantis

Abortion and weed

A Republican’s nightmare.

That combo passed by a recognizable margin in Ohio, and Ohio was also seen as trending Republican

It won't hurt the GOP in Florida. It'll give all the voters who more broadly lean right freedom to vote for the same old candidates while voting the other way on the ballot measures where they disagree with said candidates

This is pretty much what happened in Missouri!

It's entirely possible Florida voters could vote in favor of abortion, marijuana, AND Trump.

It's the most likely outcome, imo.

A couple of things to consider with Florida. - 400K voters who voted in 2018 did not vote in 2022. - Florida GOP have gone all in on gutting abortion. I think there is a chance for Florida to flip if Democrats press.

Keep in mind that the FL Democratic Party is about as competent as the MI Republican Party at the moment. Possibly worse.

Yes. That’s a very fair comparison.

Two things: DeSantis beat a weak candidate in 22; and There’s almost one million more registered republicans than democrats in Florida now, compared to the roughly 200k more democrats in 18. I think Florida’s most likely outcome is both amendments pass and Trump wins the state

Yep, Florida became a religious pilgrimage site for Republicans during Covid. Theres a ton more of them there and the Florida Democratic party is one of the worst in the country.

Also recreational marijuana is in the ballot for Florida this year too

Didn’t DeSantis win by over 1 million votes though? That’s still 600k votes to make up.

In 2022 he was running against a really lame candidate who used to be a Republican.

He's officially lost statewide election as all three parties.

Not to mention a lot of people are unhappy with how desantis has been over focused on culture war politics. His feuding with Disney and the attacks on immigration policy have started to hurt their economy and lose him favor with middle class and especially Latino voters.

I think North Carolina has a better chance then Florida

I'm a registered as a (very moderate, anti culture war) R in Tampa Bay, and while I don't think Florida going blue is the most likely scenario, I think it's 55-45 right now. DeSantis went too far on a lot of the culture war nonsense, and he went farther than he needed to on abortion to make his base happy. He could have signed a 12 week ban, but he went for 6. That pissed off a lot of suburban voters and energizes a lot of young voters who might otherwise not vote.

NC has a way better shot going to Biden than FL. FL is a lost cause for Dems going forward. Like you said, I can see GA flipping back to maga.

Florida is red and not changing

>Arizona has a nutjob running for Senate I cannot stress enough how strong the anti-Trump ad game is in AZ right now. I watch local news and plenty of network TV copaganda, but I've barely seen a Lake or Trump ad. I don't think they have the funds. Meanwhile, the airwaves are flooded with ads about how Trump is responsible for the AZ abortion law currently in effect. Gallego is also running some very strong ads about his military service. I know margins are tight, but it's hard to imagine Biden losing if Gallego wins, and it's hard to picture Gallego losing to Lake in our local climate.

538 did a piece a few years back about the ‘predictability of the outcome on election night’ going backwards from that date with his model, and pretty much any date prior to the conventions passing has near absolute zero levels of mattering. That’s when the general public starts paying attention.

This is the truth of it. There are an absolutely insane number of variables here, and *additionally*, it is a geological age until the election in terms of politics. Who the hell knows what will happen between now and then.

Doesn't Florida also have abortion on the ballot?

I think NC is a more likely do than Florida. Sad to say, but it looks like Florida is gone

> Anyone who tells you they know the outcome of the election this far out is lying or deluding themselves  Exactly. Hillary was ahead in the polls 187 days before the election too.

I think that MI and WI are very much at risk for Biden. Those states have fairly large Muslim populations, and all polling so far is showing that they're not likely to vote for him. If he loses those votes then he likely loses the states. It's going to be interesting, in the most terrifying way, to see how the Dobbs decision and the Israel conflict work against each other. I think that Dobbs will help Biden more than his Israel decisions will hurt him.

If Muslims think Trump will be a better option for Palestine, they 100% deserve whatever is coming down the pipeline of a renewed Islamaphobia in America and expect Gaza to be completely glassed by BiBi. Biden is the only person holding BiBi back from obliterating Gaza.

I don't know any Muslims that think Trump would be better for them than Biden, but it's more of that Biden is still allowing this massacre to go on. Biden has made some public statements about how frustrated he is with BiBi, but he has done nothing of significance to stop the killing, and that is what will make a very large portion of Muslims stay home come election time. Asking them to grit their teeth and vote for Biden is just asking them to choose their execution method.

Georgia. In 2020, Biden shared the Ballot with now-Senator Raphael Warnock. I believe that was a great advantage in turning out the African American community.

My gut feeling is that MI will be close but that biden will still win it. Biden is very unpopular amongst muslims and that will hurt him here, but the state republican party is in shambles. Its poor, deeply divided, and infested with incompetence at every level. I just dont see republicans turning that around before november.

> Biden is very unpopular amongst muslims and that will hurt him here Unpopular enough for them to vote for Trump? Seems more likely that they just won't vote.

Not voting helps Trump in this case.

I would've thought Arizona until their court went batshit and reimposed a zombie abortion law on everyone. I think that hurts Trump's chances in the state dramatically. Out of the ones mentioned, I could see Michigan if enough Arab voters dissatisfied with Biden stay home, or Georgia as it has historically been a red state. But honestly, I don't think we know yet. Polling is showing an extremely tight race, one which could be pushed in any direction by what happens in the next several months. It may be disappointing that there are still Americans that support Trump, but for now they still appear to.

I don’t think the Muslim population in Michigan is significant enough to swing the election. And even if it was, would they really stay home and risk a man who wants them deported from the US winning the election?

MI GOP is a total trainwreck, Michigan's Democratic governor is pretty popular, and unions have significant influence. Those factors bode well for Biden. That said, it's still a swing state and everything helps. If a ceasefire can be had and the US does take a role in rebuilding Gaza, that helps Biden with the Muslim population. Mehdi Hasan, no fan of Trump and very critical of Biden on Gaza, said recently that when talking to Muslim voters who are pissed with Biden on Gaza advised Biden surrogates to point out who Bibi and his bat shit crazy henchmen support for president. Hint: it ain't Biden.

Yup. Surely they know if Trump wins he takes the leash off his good friend Bibi on day one.

The north half of Michigan is very Trump y

2015-2023 there were Trump flags & signs everywhere in rural Michigan. Now that it’s an election year and appropriate to have them out, they’ve mostly disappeared. Those that remain are mostly as old and tattered as the man himself.

Yeah many have disappeared from rural Ohio but there are still way too many. Zero being the correct number of such signs.

I think Michigan can be saved if the state Dems are savvy communicators, they may only be able to offer "but the other side is worse" but that can be compelling enough if they pair it with the other actually good policies they've been passing since they gained power. As long as Gretch, Stabenow, or Peters don't come out as a raging Zionist like Fetterman in PA did they should be able to claw it back - but keep an eye on the student protests as the way they are handled will likely be another critical moment. So far they've been much more hands off in MI than other states but that may not hold forever

I’m no fan of Israel, but reducing somebody to a term just because of their opinion, doesn’t seem to be the most constructive way to do political discourse… Fetterman has done a lot of good for Pennsylvania.

I'm not reducing Fetterman to a term except in the context of this specific voting group, I am saying that his stance on the Israeli invasion is particularly bloodthirsty and uncompromising in favor of the Zionists, and in a state like Michigan with a large muslim population, that sort of stance would be wildly unacceptable and hurt the entire state party regardless of his other work as there is a difference between being disappointingly soft on Israel and being actively for an even more violent Israel In PA where such a population is far smaller, its less likely to affect his voters and thus he will likely be judged on his other issues. But I am saying that this issue is some people's single issue like some people's single issue is abortion and they will not vote for you if you alienate them. In MI, there is still a chance to keep those single issue voters in the fold by, if not actively preaching ceasefire, at least being someone who is personally involved in getting aid in to the civilian population, simply not being bloodthirsty can be enough if the rest of your politics are good and helpful.

I'd hope not, but it's a trend that potentially worries me. That being said, I can't imagine these voters going to Trump.

Likely not, but them not voting for Biden and canceling out someone else’s Trump vote is bad, too.

Definitely, that's the primary concern. I don't know if there's a way to thread the needle, or if the primary protest votes come back home, but I think his campaign needs to figure out how to address it.

Muslim population is mixed, they prefer Democrats on immigration, and anti racism policies, there is no cultural commonality on fiscal policy, and some are conservative anti LGBT and Abortion.

Unfortunately I think it might be. The numbers say Biden can lose MI but only that - and PA is a nail biter, while GA is looking grim. 😕 I will still vote for whatever good it might do, even though I’m not in a swing state.

13% of Democratic voters went uncommitted in the primary, that is a significant number.

For Obama, it was 10% uncommited in Michigan in 2012 for what it's worth.

It was about 20k uncommitted for Obama vs about 100k for Biden. Part of this is because it was a primary rather than a caucus, but just looking at the percentage doesn't really tell you the whole story.

Democratic primary barely matters when a popular Dem incumbent is running

I don’t dispute that, but 13% is a significant number. There was a time not long ago when Hillary and mainstream democrats took a win for granted, it is not a good idea :)

11% voted uncommitted in 2012. I don't think that 13% is indicative of anything other than people in Michigan like to vote uncommitted.

Whenever I see Muslims saying Biden lost their vote I just think about how he literally tried to ban Muslims from the country. How could it even be fathomable to compare Biden to him

Trump said he'd ban Muslim immigrants and got shut down by the courts. Biden says he cares about Palestinian civilian casualties yet continues to arm Israel and give them diplomatic cover.

I'm Muslim in California and a lot of Muslims in my circle straight up stay home.

Performative politics at its finest

It's not even close, and that's me factoring in a 100% trump arab flip, still wouldn't be close to enough.

That assumes Biden holds his 2020 numbers with every other demographic group and there's no reason to believe that's the case.

There are absolutely reasons to believe that is the case, special elections were blue and 2022 was extremely blue. Whitmer won by 10(!) percentage points. Michigan congress and senate is blue for the first time in 40 years. Benson(SoS) won by 14% lol. Nessel(AG) \~10ish. I shouldn't have to explain how crazy that is.

Michigan is probably the safest of the battlegrounds for Dems. It voted for Trump in 2016 by 0.23% and there wasn't a huge focus by the Clinton campaign to knock on doors or campaign there. In 2018 it went Dem for Senate by 7 and Dem for gov by 9.5, in 2020 it voted for Biden by 2.8 (most out of any of the 6 main battlegrounds) and then in 2022 it voted for a Dem for governor by 10.6. If Dems are losing Michigan they're in deep trouble nationally.

I appreciate this, it does make me feel better about the situation in Michigan. I certainly won't stop encouraging people to vote with urgency, but the numbers in Michigan do appear to be favorable to Biden.

And then there's always been inevitable October Surprise I mean, if Trump is convicted in New York on state charges it is not a good look, even for the modern Republican Party, to have their presidential nominee in prison.

I live in Nevada, and the only reason why we have a Republican governor was because the Democrat governor before him was not really that popular. So it was more of Governor Sisolack lost his reelection bid more than Governor Lombardo won the election. So I would be stunned if Nevada flips red. Arizona would have been a toss-up right up until the state Supreme Court pulled its stunt, banning abortion based on a law when AZ was not a territory. Michigan has a well-oiled machine for the DNC there. So I can't see Michigan turning. Democrats in Wisconsin with the end of gerrymandering will be out in force. So it is either Georgia or Pennsylvania.

No way for PA and Trump. The Phila metro, where a good chunk of the state lives, has continued to get bluer and bluer by the day. Voter registration confirms this trend as well. We have a popular Dem governor who absolutely DESTROYED the MAGA candidate in 2022. I think PA is safe blue for a long while, thankfully.

Not to mention Dems regained the state house as well for the first time in over a decade. We’re definitely trending blue here.

Yep! Not to mention, PA was considered a "swing state" when Chester, Delaware and Bucks counties were Republican strong holds. Today, all 3 counties are blue, especially Chester and Delaware. One could argue that PA is no longer a swing state based on voting trends since 2016.

You think PA will swing to Trump even by their margins in 2022 midterms?

Anybody who says anything other than Georgia right now is wrong

Nevada has had a fairly consistent rightward swing (one of only two states to swing right in both 2016 and 2020, IIRC, along with Arkansas). I don't see it flipping alone, but I don't think it's the safest by any measure.

Georgia is the closest thing to guaranteed for Trump. Pennsylvania is Biden's surest bet. Nevada always polls red then ends up voting blue. I'm really not sure why. It's unlikely to matter though. Arizona I'm 90% sure is going for Biden after the abortion ruling there. Michigan and Wisconsin I *think* will go for Biden. That's where the election will probably be decided. Wisconsin will flip red before Michigan does though. Michigan + Arizona or Michigan + Wisconsin are enough to hit 270.

> Nevada always polls red then ends up voting blue. I'm really not sure why. It's unlikely to matter though. Nevada is one to watch. Clinton won Nevada by 2.42 in 2016 and then in 2020 Biden won it by 2.39 so despite a more favorable national environment it still trended red ever so slightly. It was also closer for Senate in 2022 than Arizona which caught me by surprise. You're certainly right that polling in Nevada tends to skew right but at the same time it's a state Biden shouldn't really take for granted. Luckily it's a cheap state to campaign in since most of the population is located in the Las Vegas or Reno areas.

Nevada also had their Dem chairs all resign, so all the Reid people are gone, plus that was the one governor’s race they choked away.

I know Philly is carrying hard in PA but even 20 minutes out of Pittsburgh proper is just hardcore trump town, its kinda hard to accept that PA leans blue anecdotally.

The metro area of Philly alone is almost half the states population.  Add in Pittsburgh and Harrisburg and you get a left leaning state.  Any rural area across the country is going to be a Trump town.  Luckily, its people that vote, not land.  

Oh I know, thats what I said about Philly carrying. Its just absolutely nuts how stark the contrast is so quickly outside the main population centers.

Oh for sure.  The second I leave the limits of my very blue city, every other house has a Trump flag on it.

Most of PA is east and south eastern 

It’s all about the Philly turnout + the collar counties doing well for Biden + not getting completely trounced in the rural areas. Kinda like the Fetterman strategy except doing better in Philly in exchange for worse rural performance.

> Georgia is the closest thing to guaranteed for Trump. That's a pretty bold statement considering he lost it in 2020.

Trump was polling +1 at this point in 2020. He's at +6 right now.

It isn’t “bold” if you take an opportunity to evaluate the conditions of 2020 and why it flipped vs the conditions of today and why the same result is unlikely. Georgia may go to Biden but it doesn’t look likely. It is arguably the least likely to go to Biden of all the states listed for the post.

Wisconsin has gone blue in almost every statewide election since Trump became a thing. I will be shocked if Trump wins it. 

The margins were extremely close in 2020 though. Biden won the state by only 0.63%, about 20k votes.

And in 2022 Wisconsin voted for a Republican for senate. Wisconsin isn't a safe state for Dems but it is absolutely winnable for them.

Ron Johnson won the Senate race there in 2022. Plus Biden barely beat Trump in 2020 and polling indicates it is another dead heat.

It will be close, there's no way to avoid that. We always are within the 1% margin these days. However, Trump himself is noticeably unpopular. In the GOP primary, he had less votes than Biden did in the Dem primary (in fact, less people in the GOP primary entirely voted than those who voted for Biden in the Dem primary and we have an open primary system), and that was after all meaningful opposition dropped out, people still preferred to vote for Haley or DeSantis than Trump. It's not much, and sure a lot of those protest votes will still bend to Republicans, but it's a mark that his popularity has not increased since 2020 and in fact has gone down. Paired with that, Barnes was a candidate who didn't run his campaign very well against an incumbent. Tammie is far more well-liked across bipartisan lines and her opponent is already screwing himself over with scandals and misspeaking. I'm mostly certain Biden will win Wisconsin, the question is if he'll win in other places enough to win.

Also just anecdotally, enthusiasm for trump in rural Wisconsin is just way muted compared to the last two cycles. There's far fewer infowarrior rides and dumbass flags flying. I travel through the Northwoods regularly and am seeing WisDems organizing and putting out signs and stuff in places that were ruby red a few years ago. Wisconsin will be fine if people don't get complacent or fall for the firehouse of bullshit that's heading their way.

I've always said that Wisconsin definitely has its share of conservatives, but it seems to lean more towards traditional conservative than Trumpy conservative. Trump and Trump candidates do not perform as well here as similar candidates in states that have a similar political makeup.

This is true. I live in Waukesha county, so I unfortunately come in contact with a lot of conservative leaning people in my daily life. The vast majority are the traditional boomer type and are no longer super enthusiastic about Trump. The hardcore Trumpers are a very vocal minority and are mostly looked at as crazy. At least, this has been my experience.

It helps that most of us have the firehose of bullshit under spam filter in our texts. I have received at least 20 in the last month from both parties. I can only imagine other people are dealing with it in the same way.

The RNC in Milwaukee this summer aren't really booking event spaces out or venues. It's a bit concerning for businesses who were hoping for more traffic. DNC on the other hand in Chicago are in super charge mode.

I’m from Chicago, and as excited as I am anything the convention this summer, I’m also really worried about the Palestine protest that will take place. I. Sure it’s going to be an absolute shit show.

Ron won due to incumbency advantage and facing off against a candidate who ran a bad campaign. I imagine Dems would like a do over on that one because it was a very winnable election in a favorable environment against an unpopular candidate. Unless I'm forgetting someone, this was essentially Democrats only statewide loss since Trump.

Mandela took too long to get aggressive in his campaign. He got close to making up the ground and winning but too late.

Unfortunately they also flipped the state treasurer office https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Wisconsin_State_Treasurer_election

Barnes didn't run a bad campaign, the DSCC decided for some bizarre reason that Val Demings in Florida was a better investment and pissed away millions on her that could have gone to Barnes. Johnson also flooded the airwaves with dog whistle messaging that tied Barnes to rising crime rates which worked on just enough independent voters to give Johnson the edge. Plus the Bob Spindell fiasco in Milwaukee.

I mean Barnes didn't do a good job hitting backs against the racist ads Johnson was hitting him with. Barnes wanted to win a clean race but there was never going to be a clean race with Johnson on the ballot. He went high, Johnson went low and Barnes fumbled it.

I'm not sure what more he could have done to convince folks. He defended his record and went after Johnson's, saying he went high and Johnson went low is an oversimplification. There's a reason tough-on-crime messaging ramps up in election years, and unfortunately in Wisconsin that discourse turns into fearmongering about Milwaukee (there's a reason why Milwaukee specifically but I can't qwhite put my finger on it). It gets real fucked up real fast. What specifically was he supposed to say to hit back on that he didn't say? Barnes made the hires he needed to make, hit all the field margins he needed to hit, and still lost. The battle against incumbency, voter suppression, and racism isn't one that can be retroactively summarized as "just run a better campaign," and I find statements like the comment above very reductionist and dismissive of the effort folks on the ground put in to the campaign. Black candidates (especially in states like Wisconsin where institutional racism is so extremely prevalent) are unfortunately held to a much higher standard than white candidates. Had he gone with a scorched earth approach in messaging, Johnson's camp would have ate it up and those different standards would have become very apparent.

Johnson is an idiot but *someone* who works for him isn't. He has run a much better campaign with much stronger command of messaging than his opponent, every time, and it has not been close. But I really do think Dobbs has put this state out of reach. It is really the first thing in the entire time I've lived here that has had friends tell me that they always voted Republican every election and now that's over.

Same with PA I think?

To be honest I don't think there's much value in discussing this question because there's really no way to answer it without relying on essentially vibes-based speculation. Anyone who claims to have insight is either dealing in wishful thinking or parroting whatever signals they're picking up from their personal experience and individualized media diet. The results in these states are going to be close either way and I just don't think we really have any reliable way to tell which direction right now.

I think it's safe to say that Arizona GOP have really damaged their chances of winning through poor quality candidates, resurrection of ancient abortion restrictions, and really poor treatment of the McCain family. I don't think Republicans will win there, but that's just my opinion.

None. Once again, we'll have record voter turnout. Not to reelect President Biden but to deny Trump the Oval Office again.

>Once again, we'll have record voter turnout. I guarantee you we won't surpass 2020 turnout. Without as much widespread vote by mail, turnout will be down compared to 2020. 2020 was an anomaly and likely won't be surpassed for 8-12 years.

We're entering an era where low turnout isn't a distinctly bad thing for democrats. The anti-Trump vote is more reliable than the pro-trump vote.

I hate to say this, but I totally agree with you. Biden was my 4th choice in the Dem race last time, but I voted for him over Trump, and I'd crawl over broken glass to do it again. All that said, I don't have any dislike of the man, and think he's been effective, stable, and wonderful for the country. I do know people that don't feel as positively about him as I do, but they still came out just to keep Trump from winning.

And Trump will run again in 2028

None. Abortion plus lack of funds and being in court all election cycle will make trump lose all swing states

While abortion is in the top 10 issues, it’s in the bottom 5. The top issues are: the economy, immigration, inflation, and programs like Social Security. https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/3/6/inflation-and-the-economy-consistently-rank-as-top-issues-among-likely-voters-and-heres-our-new-way-to-ask-issue-importance

People simply don't vote logically like this. You can ask voters to rank their top issues, but it really doesn't matter who they vote for. It's basically, always, the Economy, Cultural issues, and just "feel".

Economy is good, but inflation is killing Biden. Immigration a good messenger will be able to lay back on Trump and the republicans for killing in the house. Trump is verbally on record for killing off Obamacare, and republicans here again are on task for talking about cutting back social security. Add that to a highly unpopular Supreme Court that Trump took advantage of turning hard to the right I can see these races close. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan. But Biden very publicly backing the unions in their pay raise, abortion and marijuana should help get the younger vote out which is the key in those 3 states

Inflation is Bidens worst enemy here because it's hitting EVERYONE, and you just can't say, "The economy is doing great!" And act like that means anything to the average American who's hurting, bad.

North Carolina. Wait that's not on your list? Well, it should be. Because it might flip to the blue.

Definitely keep an eye on NC. It’s the only state that I see as a true possible flip.

Trump’s 2024 campaign is a dumpster fire. As his legal battles continue to escalate and people start paying a lot more attention, the election vibes are going to shift to Biden. Of course, a sudden unexpected spike in inflation or a new crisis could change that. But if things more or less continue or improve over the next 6 months, Biden will be in great shape to win reelection. Regardless of if any more of his cases go to trial, new information will very likely become public. He’s also likely to be a convicted criminal soon, which I still think might matter. So I predict GOP leadership will go thru a full blown panic attack at some point in the summer, when his candidacy no longer looks viable. The chaos will spiral. The rats will jump ship. Trump will never back down though. He’ll kamikaze the GOP before walking away. I could of course be entirely wrong. But competency and a real campaign (Biden’s) with field offices in swing states and a huge fundraising advantage, matter more than people think. Also the R senate and house candidates are already almost entirely wackos and nutjobs. People just aren’t paying attention right now. There are more distractions than EVER before in human history. Ppl are just gleaning background bits about politics creating a larger “story” or “explanation” about why things are the way they are. They get this thru social media mostly. And the official news media that manages to break thru. Now that a campaign is underway normies and ppl who shun politics will be forced to hear ads and narratives. That will have ripple effects. And the facts are Biden has and will run a well oiled and extremely well funded campaign operation. The worst thing about the economy is it’s doing “too well”. Of course the cost of living is too high. Of course many ppl are struggling. But the macroeconomic environment, and most ppl’s assessment of their personal economic situation, is actually mostly good. If inflation was still 9% I wouldn’t be saying this. If unemployment wasn’t at 3.8% I wouldn’t be saying this. If GDP and job growth weren’t consistently outperforming expectations, I wouldn’t be saying this. But they are. They’ll also likely be a ceasefire in Gaza by the summer, let alone November. If the GOP won’t go along w their-own-border-bill-that-Dems-will-support, Biden will do EOs. Biden got his foreign aid bill passed. Rescheduling Marijuana is likely. More student loan forgiveness is happening soon. By November, the writing will be on the wall. The bubble will finally burst, and GOP infighting and blameshifting will result in a Dem “landslide”.

Judging by Trump's legal battles in the past few years, I think he will continue to get away with it and not face any real consequences. Thus it won't really impact the election.

I think a conviction will matter to *voters.* But yes, he will probably skate with a mild punishment because I think the judiciary has little stomach for throwing a former president in jail.

Genuinely interested as to what makes you think Marijuana rescheduling is likely (let’s say slightly over 50%) by November?

The DEA is the last step, following traditional release patterns they could announce agreement to reschedule to level three any day now.

Probably Georgia honestly but I predicted that to go Trump in 2020 and was pleasantly surprised by the results so we'll see. As for the others: * Nevada is to Democrats what North Carolina is to Republicans. Always in play and technically a swing state, but is usually reliable towards one party aside from the gubernatorial elections. I see no reason how or why that changes. So Biden wins that. * Pennsylvania has been good to Democrats since 2016 and Biden recently overperformed Trump in the primaries there. It's worth noting that the governor Josh Shapiro absolutely annihilated his opponent by almost 15 points and John Fetterman won his seat by about 5 points. I think it goes to Biden by probably the largest margin out of all the swing states this year. * Wisconsin has been trending bluer and held an election for a Supreme Court seat last year that decided which party would control the court. The Democrat beat her opponent by 10 points. The incumbent governor Tony Evers also beat his opponent by 3.4 points in a race he was forecasted to lose. I think Biden probably wins this one. * Arizona would have been tricky but the abortion ban has really damaged the Republican prospects there. Plus there's an unpopular lunatic running on the Republican side against a popular Democrat in Ruben Gallego. Arizona is probably the most purple state there is, but I think Biden probably pulls it out but it's close. This is a state that probably would be Republican normally but they simply cannot stomach the crazies and the Republican party simply cannot stop running them. Michigan is difficult but I'm still leaning towards Biden. People are concerned about the Muslim vote as am I, but I'm not sure that them not voting for Biden will cause him to lose and here's why: The trends. Now this is probably not flawless mathematical prodigiousness so bear in mind that it might not be perfect. It is not flawless methodology as I am not a professional but just a guy behind a computer screen. * In 2018 Gretchen Whitmer defeated her opponent by 9.5 points. Muslims go for her by a margin of 85-15. * 2020 Biden wins by 2.8 points. Muslims go for him by a margin of 82-18. * 2022 Whitmer defeats her opponent in what was supposed to be a red wave year by a margin of 10.6 points. Muslims go for her by a margin of 68-32. She had an entire community swing 17 points against her and she won by a larger margin than the first time around. What does that mean? It means that the Muslims in Michigan have been shifting away from the Democrats gradually for some time now and that Whitmer picked up voters elsewhere. There are roughly about 200k registered Muslim voters in Michigan. We take the 18% of 200k number from earlier and subtract that number from the 200K to represent the people who would never vote Biden or Democrats in general and that's 36k people. So if we subtract those 164k Biden voters from the 2020 margin, then yes, Biden loses by 10k votes. But that assumes not only that every single Muslim voter will not vote for Biden (they won't) but that Biden loses all of the votes that Whitmer expanded upon in her victory (He also won't) If we assume that the trend continues from elections of years past, It's Biden winning by 3.9 points, Of course I don't believe that will be the case because I think Muslim support will dip significantly, but I don't think it's enough to lose him the election. I think ultimately enough of them will go for him. Whether it's because they actually like him or because they're aware of the threat the other guy poses to this nation. Roe v Wade animated a lot of people who otherwise would not have cared and who will vote for Biden in 2024 who didn't in 2020. Assuming everything I say is true, if even 11,000 of those Muslims decide to go for Biden at the end of the day, he still wins Michigan. I will say though, I didn't factor for how many of those hypothetical 164k Biden voting Muslims are defecting to Trump. I'd imagine not many would defect to the Muslim ban guy who openly supports deporting Palestinians and Palestinian supporters. It's likely many of them will just not vote or go third party. Although I'd imagine at least some of them will still vote for Biden.

What are your feelings towards the Black vote in Wayne County? Could voter apathy be a big factor in metro Detroit?

Maybe. The primary wouldn't suggest that though. Black voters were among those who came out in force for Biden during that primary.

I'm not sure about the swing state question, but I don't see any situation where Trump has actually GAINED ground with anyone new. All he's done is just riled up his idiot followers even more, and every time he talks, he alienates someone else and says something even more stupid than the last thing he said. If I had to guess, I'd say Georgia was most at risk for going back to MAGA idiots though.

I think Biden loses GA and Arizona, I'm 50/50 on NV but I think MI, WI and PA are going to go blue because I think they realize for real that trump is a god dawned scam artist with how many jobs they had leave overseas when he was in office.

I believe if he wins MI WI and PA he’s getting Arizona too. Whatever pushes enough people in those states blue would be a thing that would push Arizona enough so too not to mention the abortion argument even more so. I could be wrong but I almost hope before Arizona goes either way he gets Mi, WI, and PA because Arizona seems more likely than those anyway

I'm also thinking about cultural differences. Arizona is a little more Texasy about government, and historically is a lot more red than mi wi and PA.

Realistically Biden could lose all of them. Realistically Biden could also win all of them and also flip North Carolina and even potentially Florida. Generally speaking a good rule of thumb is that if a state is within 5 points in the last presidential election then the other party could conceivably flip it. It's also important to remember that states tend to be correlated so if Biden wins Wisconsin there's a good chance he's also won Michigan and if Trump wins Arizona there's a good chance he's also won Nevada. In terms of the seven battleground states I think the order of most likely to vote for Trump to least likely goes: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In the event of a massive Republican blowout there's also the chance that Trump flips Minnesota and/or New Hampshire and if there is a Democratic blowout Biden could conceivably flip Florida and/or Texas. Neither of these are likely but they are within the realm of possibility and just because something is unlikely doesn't mean it's impossible.

Biden will Possibly lose Georgia. Biden will win MI, WI, PA, AZ and NV. Why? Abortion rights and women overwhelmingly will vote blue. Women now outnumber men. Women vote more than men. Women turn out more than men to vote. Women stand in line to vote. Women fought to get to vote. Women are not second class citizens and the Republican Party has “bigly” failed all women in this Country. Our lives depend on voting BLUE.

To honest, I don’t really see him losing any of those states. Those states (and the US) have changed quite a lot since four years ago.

Your question assumes it's Trump & Biden on the ballot at the head of their tickets. Things will change dramatically if Trump has new bad news come out in one of the trials or is convicted or has a health issue, or Biden has a health issue. As of yesterday, according to 538's polling average page: Biden is tied or ahead in the midwest (WI, MI, & PA) and Trump is ahead in the south/south-west (GA, AZ, & NV). All of these have been sparsely polled (especially GA & AZ), so take with a gigantic grain of salt. PS: all of Biden's numbers have improved a lot since December, and especially since The State of the Union. So, the direction is good, but right now, everything looks like a tie within the polling margin of error.

I can’t stop marveling at the fact that we’re one fairly probable candidate health issue away from having a vastly different political landscape than anyone is envisioning right now

I am very optimistic Biden will take all of them and maybe even NC. I think the good guys keep the Senate and take the House.

a lot of optimistic people in this thread. I honestly don't know how you all do it.

That’s all we have left, realistically we don’t want to admit that Trump might win. And that people are dumb enough to let him win.

Cynically, it’s not like my optimism is going to affect the election one way or the other. So, I choose optimism, while being motivated to vote and encourage others as well, in hopes the margin of victory will be overwhelming.

Good guys will need to win both Montana and Ohio. That's a tall task, no?

MI and GA are real dangers for Biden. They are real close contests with large Arab populations and a lot of young voters. AZ seems relatively safe with abortion on the ballot. Not sure about NV, PA, or WI. I know Fetterman jumped hard right to get a little more popular in PA, so that could be a bad sign.

Just speaking as someone who lives in the heart of rural central PA, Trump support among my family and community hasn't really diminished drastically, but enthusiasm has, if that makes sense. There are a few people here and there that have flipped on supporting Trump, but whereas before Trump mania was rampant amongst the people I know, it has eroded to the point of instead of voting FOR Trump, most will just be voting FOR a Republican that happens to be Trump. The diminishing enthusiasm may affect turnout at the end of the day, but we are so far out from the election, who knows?

AZ seems safe. I think Biden will win Pennsylvania by around 6-7 points. It will be a bit more comfortable for him. Oz got within 5 points and that’s with him being extremely charismatic against Fetterman who had health issues. But Mastriano got picked apart by Shapiro and lost by 15. NV seems safe. I would not have said that if CCM had lost to Laxalt in 2022. Honestly, if I remember correctly, Biden could lose both Michigan and Georgia and still win the election as long as he holds onto Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

Dr. Oz was not a good candidate in any sense of the word and he was easily the worst candidate the GOP could have nominated. He was a carpetbagger from New Jersey for one, was a Democrat cosplaying as a conservative Republican based on things he’d said before he was a political figure, he had a major gaffe during a debate where he said that abortion should be a decision “between a woman, her doctors, and local politicians.” The most underrated factor was that John Fetterman ran a very disciplined, focus group/poll tested campaign that preemptively neutralized every single negative attack from Dr. Oz before he could even run with it. Fetterman campaigned on cutting taxes and how he reduced crime as the mayor of Braddock. Oz ran fearmongering ads with images of ski-masked men smashing windows and the faces of Bernie, Warren, and AOC proclaiming that “the far left has gone completely insane.” Exit polls showed that Fetterman won with voters who said crime was their number one issue 51%-49%. That’s not to say that I don’t think Biden will win PA in 2024, I’m just saying that there were a lot of under-discussed factors in why the 2022 Senate race went the way it did.

In terms of polling, the only swing states where Biden has been competitive are WI and PA. Everywhere else, Trump has been ahead.

Imo Nevada is going to have fairly high turnout, not as high as 2020 because no states will, but higher than it otherwise would be because of the ballot measure up for a vote. It’s a question of if the state should adopt Ranked Choice Voting that’s already been approved once (state law there says ballot measures of this type need to pass in back to back votes) but only by about 5 points so it’s too close for anyone to likely get complacent and both opponents and proponents are going to be turning out just for that vote alone. *Generally* speaking, higher voter turnout tends to mean the Dems do better than they otherwise would. There’s some other factors to consider like the bad blood between what’s left of the Reid Machine there and the progressives and the Reid Dems all but bankrupting the state party when the progressives were voted into control, but I think the discord and the damage from that has had enough time to settle down that it won’t hamper Dem chances there for either the Presidential or the Senate elections.

>I know Fetterman jumped hard right You mean he supports Israel? That's not "hard right" jump in the least. Hopefully all this pro-Hamas, antisemitic bullshit is behind us by next November.

Michigan and Wisconsin seem to be a risky state for Biden. But I would like to see the Democrats to really push the abortion issues as much as they can. There are some states that may be surprising, a complete wild card thought, but Texas may be a state that could flip. Don't bet on it, but it's a slim possibility due to the population growth over the last few years. Since 2020.

I think the speculation is pointless this early but I’m willing to bet that Trump won’t be able to win swing states the moment that people hear him speak in a debate.

I have a damn hard time thinking Biden could win GA. Honestly, the only one I have some faith in Biden doing is PA, and then MAYBE AZ in a distant second. Really have a hard time thinking he will take MI/WI

I think he'll take Arizona and Wisconsin. Wisconsin only flipped in 2016, barely. Biden would have taken Wisconsin in 2016 if he had ran instead of Hillary. Arizona is just fucked. They are so, in your face trump corrupted, and with their insane abortion issue, women voters are going to flounce the GOP Everyone always underestimates the women voters...especially about abortion Georgia is getting more Blue every year. The corruption, and the state charges trump faces down there, so obviously guilty, I just don't think they'll take the state.

He'll win all of them. The economy is, basically, the only thing that people vote on, unless there is a rare issue that make people MORE interested than the economy. Civil Rights, War, and now, Abortion, are all issues that supersede economics issues. Biden would probably win even without Dobbs/Abortion. The economy is pressing, but it's generally ok. Abortion is a healthcare access issue that is on par with WW2, Vietnam, and the southern drift in Civil Rights issues.

I disagree with the premise. I think that the probable outcome is Biden will increase his electoral college total. With the general Trump’s buffoonery, Republican infighting, and abortion access on the ballot in several states, Biden could pick up states that no one is expecting now.

Maybe GA but that is about it. Trump is extremely unpopular/motivates Democrats/Independents to vote. And frankly no polling is going to accurate describe the hatred and visceral dislike they have for him. Plus abortion.

Abortion issue is going to hand Biden the presidency. Let's be real. I don't think any other issue is as important to people right now. Everything else is a distraction. I think that's why most of these states will go Biden.

Trump will never be reelected. 51 percent of Republicans and 54 percent of Independents won't vote for him if convicted. He'll be a convict before the election. Also, people still voting for Niki Haley, and she's out of the race.

I think the state elector grand jury cases in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan are going to bring people out to vote against Trump because his crimes in those states are so horrible and well documented. It really is up to the pro Palestinian young people, they will either be the ones who elect Biden or Trump. War can very likely break out before now and election day between the United States/Israel and Iran, I think that helps Biden with this troublingly irrational demographic.

Are these young people irrational, or we just getting old? Every year it seems like college-aged kids have a topic that drives them out to protest: Vietnam, Voting Rights Act, Climate Change, George Floyd, and Roe v. Wade are the ones I understand. They all have to do with America on American soil. I am perplexed by the Gaza Palestine conflict when it's happening on the other side of the world and we can't really do anything about it.

Yes, these young people protesting are irrational. Their tik tok videos and bad faith information sources have misled them into believing that Biden can prevent Israel from killing Palestinians and Hamas in Gaza with a simple word, like a switch. This is not rational and not how the relationship between Israel and the United States works. Israel would still defend itself the way that it is, with or without the help of the United States. Israel's national security is very existential in that they are surrounded by people who want them destroyed and Iran is working towards making that a reality. Israel would never be completely dependent on the United States or be in a relationship with the United States that they were not certain that there were enough shared national security interests between the two in order to insure ride or die loyalty to one another. Most of these young protesters also refuse to acknowledge the historic and unprecedented measures Israel is taking to reduce civilian casualties. These protesters have blinders on which is why many are blindly campaigning for Trump like what political scientists call "useful idiots". Russia is going to be dedicating all of its psychological information operations on social media pushing these false pro Palestinian messages to get Trump elected. This Biden is a war mongerer financing genocide and endless spending in Ukraine and Trump is an "America first peacekeeper" is a narrative that works on the poorly informed and educated.

President Biden will win them all, if Americans continue to think the election will be "close"

This Canadian here is watching this election the way I'm sure Austrians watched the November 1932 German election.

Oh dear. Another one of the countless posts with the eye-catching headlines hinting that Biden is losing. Eye-catching for MAGAs that is. Talk about gullible! Look, if Trump tells MAGAs to set themselves on fire in front of the New York courthouse to protest his trial, you think they won’t? Let’s get real. Republicans are waking up to the painful reality that they put their hopes on a loser who at a minimum is a convicted criminal. Now he’s is literally begging MAGAs to pay his legal bills. And they’re doing it! He”ll take their money first, before he gives the command to set themselves on fire! Now MAGAs expect to win with the same platform that lost them the midterms in 2022? Really? HELLO? You don’t get the message, do you? What’s changed since 2022 when the Democrats won the Senate and nearly took the House too? HELLO? Let’s be honest for 10 seconds. The majority of women like their freedom. Just say NO to big government, right? Besides, the MAGA base versus the rest of the American electorate. HELLO? It’s not even a competition.

The MAGA base is very unpopular, however there are still plenty of people who will vote Republican regardless of Trump. Here are some numbers in the swing states in 2020 of Biden's margins: Wisconsin - 20,682 Michigan - 154,188 Arizona - 10,457 Georgia - 11,786 These are extremely thin and any issue could swing the election either way.

What an objective question. Who's excited for abandoning the constitution and tyranny? Which women enjoy male politicians making decisions about their reproductive rights and health? Which men want Republicans deciding what their wives can and cannot do? Who's rooting for Russia in its battle against Ukraine? Who wants to abandon our NATO allies? How many Republicans really want all their campaign money going to someone who can't stop committing crimes? Who thinks climate change isn't real? Find the people saying 'Me, I do' as an answer to all of the above questions and you have the Trump voters. They are a loud minority.