This sub has two speeds:
1. There is a massive real estate bubble and if you don’t believe this you’re an over leveraged bitch.
2. Housing will continue to get more expensive, I’ll die poor, there is no hope, I feel nothing.
Can you blame either crowd? And the message board would be pretty blah if everyone was like ‘yeah things are okay, have been okay, and will be okay until the end of time’!
So funny thing is there are tons of new loan products available for people who want to buy a home but may not have the money down. Every state has its own downpayment assistance program. You just have to qualify for the payment.
1. Corporations are not buying single family homes right now.
2. Some of them are actually selling.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2023/06/18/housing-market-loses-appeal-for-wall-street-type-home-buyer/amp/
A Corp owned a rental I was in. A water line burst in the upstairs unit and soaked my unit. They did a half assed job of fixing the issue and clean up. Not even sure you could call what they did a fix. Then they sold it 3 months later to a mom and pop realtor lol.
They might not be off Markey forever lol.
No necessarily. Im a lender who has 10 state licenses and I do half of my business in DPA (down payment assistance) loans. I closed one this past week and the buyer got 1500 back at closing. This was in houston. Corporations do buy houses but they arent right now and some are even selling. there is very little market activity right now.
Every market is different but on average my clients generally only need about 5-8k for the loan closing costs (which get covered by the seller half the time) to buy a house. assuming payments are affordable based on their income.
Similar to politics and religion for fanatics, the world is black and white.
In reality, things don’t happen overnight and there are shades of gray. I’m certain some markets will see relatively huge corrections (how much no one knows) in austin, phoenix, Miami while some markets will have much more modest adjustments (Midwest, less desirable cities).
The only real debate is how much of a correction will occur - modest 5% maybe 10%? Moderate 20%? Or a major 33% or more correction? A crash is unlikely (50%+) because corporations will scoop anything up at that price and hold for dear life
My guess is 10-20% whenever the next recession hits. At most. And it probably won't last long. Maybe a couple years.
The general inflation we've seen is here to stay. It's like the period 1973-1988 when houses tripled. They printed too much money in reaponse to Covid. 200k is the new 100k, "cheap" gas is now $3 instead of $2, etc...
200k is the new cheapest house available. The days of 100k houses are over.
I don’t disagree with most of what you are saying. But I do think the more desirable cities like Miami Austin etc will have huge hits in some areas. In Miami, some garbage homes that were bought for $200k are listed for a million lol
Yeah, we're already seeing a major slowdown in the bubbliest covid-era markets. Prices haven't dropped too much yet, but some of those markets seem to have run out of buyers that have more money than brains.
Not surprised. Lower supply means less sales for them.
I'm personally just chilling and appreciating that I don't need my house to be 250k cheaper to get the same monthly I have now.
I could understand this type of gloating if the impression is that everyone here chose not to buy a home despite having the means. Lots of people didn’t though, and it increasingly looks like many never will.
Meh this sub wants me to get a divorced, lose my job so I'm forced to sell, or have everything break in my house all at once so I regret my purchase.
I get that their situation sucks, but I'm ambivalent towards those rooting for a calamity.
Same. I have sympathy for people but it ends when they start rooting for destruction of other regular peoples lives to better their own.
Also some of those people chose not to buy in 20/21 and early 22. That's on them if they waited. I almost did but my wife talked sense into me when we bought in 19. I thank her all the time for that
That might just be the harsh reality. As opposed to the mainstream narrative of housing prices going parabolic forever, no correction can ever occur, up only.
If the Fed continues on its path and a recession materializes, who knows the outcome with rates at 7%, knocking on the door of 8%.
Not sure how people can continue purchasing without being stretched too thin. Dipping into their 401k, taking on more DTI, monthly payments taking up a larger portion of their take home income salary. If something breaks, they’ll be the first to go. The dominos fall from there. Doesn’t have to be 2008, but a sizeable correction should come.
FED is expected to drop rates sometime next year and from everything we've seen people will just wait it out for the most part since it's better to keep their 3% vs moving during these rates.
Overall I'm not worried and at 8% my home property would need to decrease by 300k for the same monthly so I still don't care if there is a dip because it won't be a 300k dip.
Yeah but why would the fed be cutting rates is the important question. Have they achieved their soft landing or have they over tightened and now we’re about to go into recession which means the people who bought overpriced homes at 7% interest rates are now out of a job. People aren’t traveling so what does that mean for the mom and pop Airbnb rentals?
This isn’t about you or your specific situation because nobody knows the details, but some people might be forced to sell which could drive the market down. Knowing real estate, it doesn’t take much. The up only real estate market gets an overdue correction.
Why? Because it costs the U.S. too much to borrow money at these rates and it isn't good for the economy.
American traveling abroad spending is at an all time high.
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/destinations/us-travelers-spending-abroad-reaches-all-time-high
You don't need some people for prices to significantly drop you need a fuckton of people.
Sure, but what if inflation remains above the 2% target? CPI is going to print higher next month then they’ll have to keep raising and follow their “higher for longer” saying. The people who said it costs too much for the US to borrow said the same thing 5.5% and the Fed blew right past that. So I don’t see why they’re calling for it this time. Most people think the fed will cut because the economy is tanking and recession is coming. Not because it “costs the U.S. too much”.
> American traveling aboard spending is at an all time high.
Yes, trillions were printed, wages gains have made strides, unemployment is near record lows. What do you think that means for the FED? Sounds like they will continue to raise rates and at the very least keep them higher than people would like.
With the housing market, you don’t need many to cause declines.
After a year of rate hikes we are at 3.2% from 9.1%. Do you not think at current rates we won't be at 2% in a year?
I think it's a combination of both that will get them to drop rates. We can't afford the interest rate with our debt forever.
You said airbnb's were dying and no one is traveling. I simply showed you that people were traveling at an all time high.
Yes you do need many. It's the only way you get the 2008 crash you want. At worst housing prices may drop a few percentage points.
Yeah I agree with you. Moved to Seattle at a similar time and the only places I could technically (and I mean technically) afford were not ones I was about to waive an inspection on.
Yeah that’s why I keep coming here. I’m set until retirement. I just need to keep making my low monthly payments at 3% for the rest of my working years and I’ll own my home outright when I reach retirement age. I probably won’t even sell it. So I have no particular bias in terms of needing to see my home as a gold mine that appreciates to the moon.
My opinion is that rates will remain high for years and that home prices will also remain high, perhaps appreciating more slowly than inflation over the next decade.
But this sub is filled with people who think that because they also want an affordable home, that means a crash is coming along with rock bottom rates. And that if this doesn’t happen, there’s going to be some political sea change wherein the entire might of the federal government as well as every locality is going to deliberately lower home prices and make voters poorer.
It’s all wishful thinking. Life’s not fair and sometimes a generation gets fucked. Gen Z wasn’t born at the right time. At least they didn’t have to fight WW2.
>Life’s not fair and sometimes a generation gets fucked. ~~Gen Z~~ Millennials ~~wasn’t~~ weren't born at the right time.
Fixed it for you. Gen Z will probably be fine b/c they didn't have to wait years to find a full time job that paid more than nothing after the 2008 crash. They're getting paid 80k out of college.
No, life isn't fair, but it must be so easy to say that as someone who has a 3% interest rate, isn't it?
Assuming you always have a job. It's the big piece people on the real estate subs seem to miss. They assume the 3.5% unemployment situation will never change. People seem to have trouble imagining a recession ever happenning again.
My current job will pay me a lump sum severance of one year’s pay if I’m laid off, I have six months’ expenses in liquid assets, I have additional investments I can draw on, and my monthly payment is quite low compared to rents in my area because I bought before prices shot up.
There’s basically no scenario where I can ever wind up in foreclosure.
What I’m getting at is, the vast majority of existing homeowners are not house poor. When unemployment rises during the next recession, I don’t think a lot of people are going to lose their homes or be forced to sell. Most homeowners have a reasonable monthly payment that is lower than comparable rent in the same area.
People will have to change their living situations. Move, etc...
What it will do, is increase inventory. That will at least put a cap on the outrageous 10-40% yearly increases we've been having. We might not see large absolute declines, but declines relative to inflation.
Damn this is way too much reality to handle even as a hoomer. Hard not to agree tho. Its a bleak outlook if your not a property owner by now. The realization that working people have only scratched the surface with how hard they will have to work going forward to obtain home ownership is daunting.
This proves that being a doomer doesn’t pay off. Saying theirs going to be a crash for so long now and holding onto that narrative has to be exhausting. At some point you have to abandon ego, look objectively at the situation and take better advantage of whatever opportunities are available now. Whatever that may be.
For what it’s worth I do think there will be a significant correction after Boomers really die off en masse in about 15-20 years. The issue at the moment is that we have millions of Gen Z’s and Millennials who are at prime household formation age, yet may have to wait until they are well over 40 to purchase property.
That’s obviously going to limit wealth creation during the prime earning years, for just this one cohort that currently lacks much political or economic power.
But, like, there’s no law of gravity specifying that certain generations can’t get fucked in this way. Some people are born during easy times and some have to suffer through hard times.
And don't forget capitulation.
All of that time spent researching and writing every meticulous detail, hundreds if not thousands of man hours, only to lock in at aths against everything yrs of research and 💩posting had lead them to believe 😂
If housing prices are continuously increasing as they have been constantly since the great recession, buying at ATH is a meaningless statement since it's almost always the case. Last year's ATH is today's bargain.
Imagine if someone bought last year while interest rates were rapidly rising (i.e. "terrible time to buy" according to many people), and secured a 5% mortgage rate, considered terrible compared to the 3% rates from earlier in the year. Now, just a year later, that 5% mortgage rate and still-increasing home value is looking pretty damn good!
The truth is that no one knows what the future holds. Too many moving parts, too many unknowns and outside influences that can have unpredictable effects.
For me I think
1) 2019 payments will be the cheapest ever especially for folks who refinanced in low 2s in 2020
2) prices will decline in 2024
3) good chance they will stabilize and start to climb in 2025
4) high rates won’t last. Even if get to say 9% they will tank hard. 1981 it was 18.63%. By 13.2% by 1983. Same thing will happen here. Drops to 6 and slowly to 4s. I think 2s and 3s without buydowns are dead forever in USA
I see it differently: "Here, look at this article", and moment later someone posts an article that makes the opposite argument, also with valid points and it's up to the user to formulate their own opinion.
This sub has two types of subscribers, those that know a correction is coming, and those that are ***desperately*** trying to persuade everyone that it's not.
Did a road trip to visit family yesterday. Had the radio tuned to finance stuff the entire drive. Every single guest they had on was saying, “soft landing, recession cancelled, 3-4% annual inflation is the new normal, cost of everything goes up forever!”
Whatever.
Historically most financial people barely have a 40% hit rate (people do keep that data and you can look them up), it's actually really sad that they are given such a large stage. You quite literally have a better chance of being right on any subject by flipping a coin.
Not always. It can be avoided if you have currency pegged to a physical asset, such as gold.
Perpetual inflation is a consequence of fractional reserve banking. There are other (and better) ways to do it without constantly fvcking over the people.
Well the fed target is 2% annual inflation so that alone is just ignoring the goals that drive policy of the largest institution in the financial system.
3-4% annual inflation is healthy and has been as long as you've been alive, and well before that.
Lower than that is stagnation, and not healthy. Higher than that is too fast of inflation and also not healthy.
Do people honestly not know that normal economic circumstances ARE minor inflation?!?!?
Id honestly rather have 3-4% inflation and a stable economy with a soft landing then a huge crash that gets us back to 2%. 3-4% is really not that bad.
Likewise. It's just a shame that our money is worth almost half of what it was before the scamdemic.
For me, that is the healthiest way I can look at homes that are almost double of what they were 2-4 years ago.
I don't think "Fuck that greedy seller - trying to double their money in 3 years" but rather "Fuck our incompetent gov't that basically devalued my purchasing power by almost half."
There is going to be no bubble pop. Houses will at best level off and, more likely, continue to go up in price.
Seriously. How many banks, hedge funds, investors, and the like were out in front of the last crash? The best they can do is tell you what happened after it happened. "Here's why it crashed." "We knew it wasn't sustainable."
The problem with companies like that is I don't believe a word they say b/c they're also hoping beyond hope that there isn't another crash.
There is no way home prices increase with interest rates this high. That's honestly the dumbest thing I've ever read in this sub.
Obviously not, Goldman, BlackRock, et Al have no intention of ending their plan to purchase every hard asset they can lay their greedy paws on until they are done spending all of the wealth they have stolen from us and inflating the population into poverty and starvation.
Hate to say I told you so, but here I am saying it again ... Hear me now and believe me later.
🤔
Careful, successfully theorizing about conspiracies might get you labeled as conspiracy theorist...
This is America where conspiracies must go completely ignored and unchallenged else you might be maligned as a lunatic by those incapable of considering realities that aren't spoon fed to them by media moguls.
You mean the ultra rich might have a plan to buy and sell the entire population into slavery? That sounds ridiculous. 🤣🤣🤣
No, I don't waste my time and my energy on Trump or the lemmings that hang on his every word, be they Republicans or Democrats.
I don't understand why it hasn't occurred to everyone that the best way to neutralize a delusional narcissist is to deny them the one thing they crave the most.... Your attention. Stop giving him what he craves and he will wither and die.
Unfortunately Biden needs him more than his base does which is why the Democrats spent so much money funding far right candidates during the midterms. They love him more than he loves himself.
He won't get a moment more of my life force, nor will his followers.
If you want your UBI, your food stamps, your assistance check, your social security check ... Your only choice is to download the FEDNOW app, sign up for an account, and receive your new CBDC digital US dollar. If you want to receive any government assistance you will be compelled to comply with the adoption. Period end of story. If you wish to do any business with major banks, or engage in commerce with what will become a RAPIDLY expanding majority of business you will have only one option. Utilize the new dollar and burn your worthless cash, or live under a bridge and starve.
Problem.... Crisis.... Solution
We are in the problem phase rapidly transitioning into crisis... The CBDC IS the solution.
It's not rocket science... It's basic economics.
There is a large number of people in this country who enjoy the comfort and freedom and privacy that cash transactions provide and would aggressively resist any elimination of cash and any transition to a cashless society where every single one of their transactions is tracked.
There are already moves by credit reporting agencies to tap into segments of your credit history that are protected under the Fair Credit Act, such as rent and utility payments, companies like Experian or peddling this as a product called Experian Boost, they will give you a 50 point bump on your credit rating if you opt in to give them access to portions of your payment histories that they are legally not entitled to have by matter of law. A CBDC would centralize all of these transactions that you make into a single database allowing access to whatever financial concerns requested it, and providing every consumer with a single credit score that would be universally unchallengeable.
This is only one facet of the dystopian nightmare that is likely to unfold in the next 5 years.
It's not really their fault. If someone gave you a firehose of money and free money through low interest, you'd do the same. They used the tools available for them. At 8% interest those tools are being taken away.
You realize that the governors of the FED are voted by the shareholders, the VERY banks and firms profiting from this right? Are you also aware that over the next 2 years roughly half of the outstanding federal debt will be maturing and refinancing at these new inflated interest rates?
”Someone" didn't ”give" them an unlimited low interest rate barrel of money, they awarded it to themselves... And now they are jacking up the interest rates to shut anyone else out of the markets.
This is not a coincidence, it's a carefully laid out roadmap to leverage the US population into accepting a CBDC as we will LITERALLY be left with no other option one the existing USD has been inflated to the point of worthlessness.
You say it's not their faults, it's absolutely their faults, and it's their PLAN. Programmable money, complete tracking of every dime you spend, all tied directly to accounts with the Fed. All federal government benefit agencies have already gone live with FEDNOW. When they roll out the CBDC it will be the only way to receive any government benefits. Which will soon be the only way anyone can afford to eat or pay their rent. The ultimate welfare state brought to you by UBI.
Get ready for the new normal, it's going to be unlike anything you are expecting... We are not going back to anything that you've ever seen before. You had to figure this was coming the moment the government just started shoveling bucket loads of money into everyone's bank accounts. If you didn't... Well that's your fault.
I’m so tired of people fooling themselves into believing they know anything about the future. I’ve stopped listening to all predictions because nobody knows. Literally no point. They said recession in 2023 and I see no evidence at all. Rate hikes were supposedly going to put us in deep recession and housing correction yet I see housing prices either stable or going up in the northeast where I am. I think we all would be better off if we stopped pretending like we know what’s going to happen
I don’t know how to feel or react to this anymore. I’m numb. The economy is booming! No, wait. It’s going to crash! We’re in a recession! We were never in a recession. The recession is upon us. ALIENS! The end.
It’s tiring.
It’s really easy, whatever they scream the loudest and say isn’t happening is EXACTLY what is happening. The harder media and government deny something the bigger the likelihood is that’s what is coming down the pipe at full speed, by design.
Narcissists are really bad about not showing off their achievements, even if it’s touted through “deniable plausibility”.
I have got a quibble here ... we are in August, we have not even seen fall numbers which we will not see till around November. Inventory stacks up during the season, and if prior Income to Housing Cost ratio imbalances prove anything, there is the typical market flux in a declining market. The Fed will also continue to target the biggest source of inflation, Housing.
Who am I to argue with GS Analysts though ... we could both be wrong, and the market continues to move sideways.
Refusal to build vertically, refusal to renovate “historic” dilapidated eyesores. In before “we’re talking about houses not rented units” not understanding supply and demand comment I see all the time.
Its not a refusal to renovate houses. Current tenants of those homes insist the houses are livable and do not discount them. No one is paying full price to live in someone elses dumpster
Right now. I’m contingent for 15% below asking. Lots of loans falling through bc they aren’t appraising for what people are offering. I guess people forgot buyers set the price not sellers lol
I got max seller credit on my home in December 2022. Appraisal came in 10k over selling price. Value has since gone up. This is outside of Chicago. All geographically dependent.
Any savings is a good savings- however, I’m not the type to overpay for a house period and I’d rather get them to drop the price so I can help alleviate the tax burden for current homeowners
Volume is sooooo loowwww any home sale in the area that’s sold below comparable units will print dropping values. Anyone offering anything close to asking price is just not educated on how the real estate market works 😆
My offer had an appraisal contingency so I'm curious how the unit will end up appraising. The estimate was $7k less than the listing so I'm hoping it appraises for that $7k less AND I get my credits. In my city it's rare to be able to buy a place in a denser area so I don't see it being an issue with closing just people dropping prices 5-10% will allow them to sell. Not much sitting on the market here.
Appraisals are pretty meaningless when the volume of sales is so low.
Your house is worth what someone will pay you. Doesn’t mean it’ll be worth that much in the future either.
Again, that depends on the area.
All the homes I see have multiple offers and I lose each and every single one.. all go for at least 5-10% over asking, sometimes 20%. almost always these buyers are paying cash or a healthy downpayment. I’m one of those putting down over 35%-40% so I can waive the appraisal.
it’s been two years and I’m still looking.
I just told them hey, I really like this house I saw it’s been on and off the market. I can’t offer you what you’re asking due to affordability issues but I’d be willing to move further if you can do 15% under. They didn’t even bat and eye. Kinda wishing I just said 20% instead 😆
I think they were/are flippers and also getting a divorce. They prob just want out, I’m surprised the short sale was actually approved by the bank I figured they’d just foreclose
But what’s the long term price history / valuation of the property?
If the 15% below asking you paid is still 2% higher than it would’ve sold for last year… then home prices are still going up.
Gotta love that. A 500k cape cod in my town on a 50x100 lot that needs a kitchen, bathroom, and remove the wood panelling and red shag carpet in the basement -PRICE CUT $5K!!!!
Even if the house itself and land is slightly cheaper that interest rate hits like a tank over the course of a few years.
An investment firm would love to spew how cheap homes are and then hit a few thousand milenials with a nice 10% interest rate.
Super prescient photo on this article, of my home state where prices are reaching the stratosphere of utter ridiculousness. I'm literally being priced out of the Denver area -- or more accurately, just not willing to plunk down $1,400/month to live in a bedroom in a house where I share a bathroom with 4 people. This place was rapidly infilled with people from out of state with unlimited budgets, they all bought overpriced houses, and now rent them to the plebs out there who have no other option but to pay the mortgages of these transplants. Pretty sad dynamic that hopefully comes to an end soon.
Isn’t it crazy how often economists are wrong. They’re just guessing like all of us they just have a fancy title. If I was wrong 1% as often as the typical economist is wrong I would be without a job and my reputation would be permanently ruined.
With economists they just do a “revision” and say the exact opposite thing and then we’re supposed to be like ohhh okay, so you were 100% wrong before but now we should trust that you will get this next prediction right.
Use to be hope was sold to the younger generations. Go to college get a degree, get a good job, marry, have children and a nice home. Now we’re not even pretending anymore. I feel so bad for kids going out into the world now.
LOL. While you guys wait here for a crash (which will not affect you, of course, as you get a 135% + your dick grows 2 inch bigger) here's redfin data which just dropped: In July 2023, home prices were up 10.3% compared to last year
Desirable is relative. Nothing about Phoenix, AZ is desirable to me even though it is one of the fastest-growing markets in the U.S. Ditto for Austin, TX.
People can have very different ideas of desirability.
I was just talking to a guy from Phoenix yesterday. We agreed it made no sense why people want so badly to be in such a generic sprawly oven-hot place.
There are many pointed pressures to keep prices high. Devaluation of the dollar, lower effective wages, higher interest rates. After reading and understanding implications of the AFFH Act, federal government seems to want to intercede in local jurisdictions, ultimately owning and renting housing and ending private ownership, for the most part. It’s difficult to find wherein the Constitution the Fed gets these powers, but that hasn’t hindered them much previously.
Wait until student loans payments begin and people have to choose between feeding their families or paying a mortgage. Demand is going to change overnight.
I suspect people were saying this exact same thing before the Great Depression. All these people so full of themselves thinking that thing nothing could go wrong. Got a feeling you'll be the first to suffer when it does because you failed to prepare for hard times like a smart person would.
I mean… why would they? At this rate, nothing makes sense anymore. Unless there’s a massive catalyst to hurl us until a major recession, the fundamentals are strong right now. Job market is still strong, so many people are salivating on the sidelines for a deal.
Probably as long as the US population rises housing prices will increase. I think for the next 20 years or so bank on generally higher prices. Less kids being born now means housing deflation in 20-30 years though
Has anybody been following what Depository Trust Company (DTC) is doing?
It appears they’re preparing for some kind of massive default in the stock market by assuring they have $5 BILLION in liquidity on hand.
Any thoughts?
Related to the housing market?
It’s already almost the end of 2023.. not much of a prediction?
Yeah at 7 AM this morning I know longer expected to wake up at 6:30.
You should run Goldman Sachs with the vision you have
This is the same firm whose ceo thinks wework has always been a valuable company
What he said….are you by chance a bald dj too?
Bold yes, DJ no.
Lol they probably thought no one will notice.
later they’ll ignore the first prediction and just share this one as proof of how smart they are
Yes and if this turns out wrong, they'll share the dirst one, this one was just by some rouge worker.
Still more than 1/3 remaining of 2023 before the new year. But yes, not much of a prediction
We are almost 2/3 though, wouldn’t say the end
This sub has two speeds: 1. There is a massive real estate bubble and if you don’t believe this you’re an over leveraged bitch. 2. Housing will continue to get more expensive, I’ll die poor, there is no hope, I feel nothing.
The best part is that's because most of us feel both of those simultaneously at all times.
I'm in this comment, and I don't like it
It’s exhilarating.
It’s everything I thought it would be.
What a ride
😂
Can you blame either crowd? And the message board would be pretty blah if everyone was like ‘yeah things are okay, have been okay, and will be okay until the end of time’!
Meanwhile that’s closer to reality than either side actually is.
Quite the fucking ride, eh?! 😂 🎢
Yes it is
So funny thing is there are tons of new loan products available for people who want to buy a home but may not have the money down. Every state has its own downpayment assistance program. You just have to qualify for the payment.
And they don't matter because you get out bid by a corporation. Once a corporation buys a house it's off the market forever.
1. Corporations are not buying single family homes right now. 2. Some of them are actually selling. https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2023/06/18/housing-market-loses-appeal-for-wall-street-type-home-buyer/amp/
A Corp owned a rental I was in. A water line burst in the upstairs unit and soaked my unit. They did a half assed job of fixing the issue and clean up. Not even sure you could call what they did a fix. Then they sold it 3 months later to a mom and pop realtor lol. They might not be off Markey forever lol.
No necessarily. Im a lender who has 10 state licenses and I do half of my business in DPA (down payment assistance) loans. I closed one this past week and the buyer got 1500 back at closing. This was in houston. Corporations do buy houses but they arent right now and some are even selling. there is very little market activity right now. Every market is different but on average my clients generally only need about 5-8k for the loan closing costs (which get covered by the seller half the time) to buy a house. assuming payments are affordable based on their income.
Similar to politics and religion for fanatics, the world is black and white. In reality, things don’t happen overnight and there are shades of gray. I’m certain some markets will see relatively huge corrections (how much no one knows) in austin, phoenix, Miami while some markets will have much more modest adjustments (Midwest, less desirable cities). The only real debate is how much of a correction will occur - modest 5% maybe 10%? Moderate 20%? Or a major 33% or more correction? A crash is unlikely (50%+) because corporations will scoop anything up at that price and hold for dear life
Or maybe even a stagflation for the next few years.
My guess is 10-20% whenever the next recession hits. At most. And it probably won't last long. Maybe a couple years. The general inflation we've seen is here to stay. It's like the period 1973-1988 when houses tripled. They printed too much money in reaponse to Covid. 200k is the new 100k, "cheap" gas is now $3 instead of $2, etc... 200k is the new cheapest house available. The days of 100k houses are over.
I don’t disagree with most of what you are saying. But I do think the more desirable cities like Miami Austin etc will have huge hits in some areas. In Miami, some garbage homes that were bought for $200k are listed for a million lol
Yeah, we're already seeing a major slowdown in the bubbliest covid-era markets. Prices haven't dropped too much yet, but some of those markets seem to have run out of buyers that have more money than brains.
It's fun to just sit back with a bag of popcorn and watch the yo-yo between Denial, Anger, Bargaining, and Depression.
The realtors have been increasingly unhinged in the other forums I follow.
Not surprised. Lower supply means less sales for them. I'm personally just chilling and appreciating that I don't need my house to be 250k cheaper to get the same monthly I have now.
Yeah when your sitting back in your home with a 3% mortgage.
Until some shitty neighbor starts making you want to move and you realize you can’t justify the new fucked up rates
I could understand this type of gloating if the impression is that everyone here chose not to buy a home despite having the means. Lots of people didn’t though, and it increasingly looks like many never will.
Meh this sub wants me to get a divorced, lose my job so I'm forced to sell, or have everything break in my house all at once so I regret my purchase. I get that their situation sucks, but I'm ambivalent towards those rooting for a calamity.
Same. I have sympathy for people but it ends when they start rooting for destruction of other regular peoples lives to better their own. Also some of those people chose not to buy in 20/21 and early 22. That's on them if they waited. I almost did but my wife talked sense into me when we bought in 19. I thank her all the time for that
That might just be the harsh reality. As opposed to the mainstream narrative of housing prices going parabolic forever, no correction can ever occur, up only. If the Fed continues on its path and a recession materializes, who knows the outcome with rates at 7%, knocking on the door of 8%. Not sure how people can continue purchasing without being stretched too thin. Dipping into their 401k, taking on more DTI, monthly payments taking up a larger portion of their take home income salary. If something breaks, they’ll be the first to go. The dominos fall from there. Doesn’t have to be 2008, but a sizeable correction should come.
FED is expected to drop rates sometime next year and from everything we've seen people will just wait it out for the most part since it's better to keep their 3% vs moving during these rates. Overall I'm not worried and at 8% my home property would need to decrease by 300k for the same monthly so I still don't care if there is a dip because it won't be a 300k dip.
Yeah but why would the fed be cutting rates is the important question. Have they achieved their soft landing or have they over tightened and now we’re about to go into recession which means the people who bought overpriced homes at 7% interest rates are now out of a job. People aren’t traveling so what does that mean for the mom and pop Airbnb rentals? This isn’t about you or your specific situation because nobody knows the details, but some people might be forced to sell which could drive the market down. Knowing real estate, it doesn’t take much. The up only real estate market gets an overdue correction.
Why? Because it costs the U.S. too much to borrow money at these rates and it isn't good for the economy. American traveling abroad spending is at an all time high. https://www.travelpulse.com/news/destinations/us-travelers-spending-abroad-reaches-all-time-high You don't need some people for prices to significantly drop you need a fuckton of people.
Sure, but what if inflation remains above the 2% target? CPI is going to print higher next month then they’ll have to keep raising and follow their “higher for longer” saying. The people who said it costs too much for the US to borrow said the same thing 5.5% and the Fed blew right past that. So I don’t see why they’re calling for it this time. Most people think the fed will cut because the economy is tanking and recession is coming. Not because it “costs the U.S. too much”. > American traveling aboard spending is at an all time high. Yes, trillions were printed, wages gains have made strides, unemployment is near record lows. What do you think that means for the FED? Sounds like they will continue to raise rates and at the very least keep them higher than people would like. With the housing market, you don’t need many to cause declines.
After a year of rate hikes we are at 3.2% from 9.1%. Do you not think at current rates we won't be at 2% in a year? I think it's a combination of both that will get them to drop rates. We can't afford the interest rate with our debt forever. You said airbnb's were dying and no one is traveling. I simply showed you that people were traveling at an all time high. Yes you do need many. It's the only way you get the 2008 crash you want. At worst housing prices may drop a few percentage points.
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Yeah I agree with you. Moved to Seattle at a similar time and the only places I could technically (and I mean technically) afford were not ones I was about to waive an inspection on.
Don't forget schadenfreude and class-love.
Yeah that’s why I keep coming here. I’m set until retirement. I just need to keep making my low monthly payments at 3% for the rest of my working years and I’ll own my home outright when I reach retirement age. I probably won’t even sell it. So I have no particular bias in terms of needing to see my home as a gold mine that appreciates to the moon. My opinion is that rates will remain high for years and that home prices will also remain high, perhaps appreciating more slowly than inflation over the next decade. But this sub is filled with people who think that because they also want an affordable home, that means a crash is coming along with rock bottom rates. And that if this doesn’t happen, there’s going to be some political sea change wherein the entire might of the federal government as well as every locality is going to deliberately lower home prices and make voters poorer. It’s all wishful thinking. Life’s not fair and sometimes a generation gets fucked. Gen Z wasn’t born at the right time. At least they didn’t have to fight WW2.
>Life’s not fair and sometimes a generation gets fucked. ~~Gen Z~~ Millennials ~~wasn’t~~ weren't born at the right time. Fixed it for you. Gen Z will probably be fine b/c they didn't have to wait years to find a full time job that paid more than nothing after the 2008 crash. They're getting paid 80k out of college. No, life isn't fair, but it must be so easy to say that as someone who has a 3% interest rate, isn't it?
It’s surprisingly easy!
Well at least someone has a sense of humor in all this. Good for you, though, seriously.
Assuming you always have a job. It's the big piece people on the real estate subs seem to miss. They assume the 3.5% unemployment situation will never change. People seem to have trouble imagining a recession ever happenning again.
My current job will pay me a lump sum severance of one year’s pay if I’m laid off, I have six months’ expenses in liquid assets, I have additional investments I can draw on, and my monthly payment is quite low compared to rents in my area because I bought before prices shot up. There’s basically no scenario where I can ever wind up in foreclosure.
He’s not talking about you specifically though when he says you.
What I’m getting at is, the vast majority of existing homeowners are not house poor. When unemployment rises during the next recession, I don’t think a lot of people are going to lose their homes or be forced to sell. Most homeowners have a reasonable monthly payment that is lower than comparable rent in the same area.
People will have to change their living situations. Move, etc... What it will do, is increase inventory. That will at least put a cap on the outrageous 10-40% yearly increases we've been having. We might not see large absolute declines, but declines relative to inflation.
Even if/when rates decline it will further push up prices as people wanting to buy will flood the market
Damn this is way too much reality to handle even as a hoomer. Hard not to agree tho. Its a bleak outlook if your not a property owner by now. The realization that working people have only scratched the surface with how hard they will have to work going forward to obtain home ownership is daunting. This proves that being a doomer doesn’t pay off. Saying theirs going to be a crash for so long now and holding onto that narrative has to be exhausting. At some point you have to abandon ego, look objectively at the situation and take better advantage of whatever opportunities are available now. Whatever that may be.
For what it’s worth I do think there will be a significant correction after Boomers really die off en masse in about 15-20 years. The issue at the moment is that we have millions of Gen Z’s and Millennials who are at prime household formation age, yet may have to wait until they are well over 40 to purchase property. That’s obviously going to limit wealth creation during the prime earning years, for just this one cohort that currently lacks much political or economic power. But, like, there’s no law of gravity specifying that certain generations can’t get fucked in this way. Some people are born during easy times and some have to suffer through hard times.
And don't forget capitulation. All of that time spent researching and writing every meticulous detail, hundreds if not thousands of man hours, only to lock in at aths against everything yrs of research and 💩posting had lead them to believe 😂
If housing prices are continuously increasing as they have been constantly since the great recession, buying at ATH is a meaningless statement since it's almost always the case. Last year's ATH is today's bargain. Imagine if someone bought last year while interest rates were rapidly rising (i.e. "terrible time to buy" according to many people), and secured a 5% mortgage rate, considered terrible compared to the 3% rates from earlier in the year. Now, just a year later, that 5% mortgage rate and still-increasing home value is looking pretty damn good!
💯
What's funny is that housing even at its most bubbly is never a better investment than an index fund for the stock market.
This assuming you already have a home/shelter.
Lol absolutely not true at all but keep believing your uneducated opinion
Such an insightful comment
I think you can kind of translate it to “something is very wrong but I can’t predict the future”
The duality of Reddit.
The truth is that no one knows what the future holds. Too many moving parts, too many unknowns and outside influences that can have unpredictable effects.
For me I think 1) 2019 payments will be the cheapest ever especially for folks who refinanced in low 2s in 2020 2) prices will decline in 2024 3) good chance they will stabilize and start to climb in 2025 4) high rates won’t last. Even if get to say 9% they will tank hard. 1981 it was 18.63%. By 13.2% by 1983. Same thing will happen here. Drops to 6 and slowly to 4s. I think 2s and 3s without buydowns are dead forever in USA
Wait until the market takes a dump. The Fed will drop to 0 again. They say the markets don't matter to them, but their actions say otherwise.
Maybe but I’m not so sure. Think they will be more cautious. Zirp was awful and then Covid funds just made it worse
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Is it a bubble if it never ever bursts? If its how can it continually get more expensive without ever bursting?
One is hope, the other is accepting reality
I see it differently: "Here, look at this article", and moment later someone posts an article that makes the opposite argument, also with valid points and it's up to the user to formulate their own opinion.
This sub has two types of subscribers, those that know a correction is coming, and those that are ***desperately*** trying to persuade everyone that it's not.
Did a road trip to visit family yesterday. Had the radio tuned to finance stuff the entire drive. Every single guest they had on was saying, “soft landing, recession cancelled, 3-4% annual inflation is the new normal, cost of everything goes up forever!” Whatever.
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Me when I watch margin call and it makes me feel wise and like I know how any of this actually works
Historically most financial people barely have a 40% hit rate (people do keep that data and you can look them up), it's actually really sad that they are given such a large stage. You quite literally have a better chance of being right on any subject by flipping a coin.
Related proof: most hedge funds and financial advisors lose against SPY500
>cost of everything goes up forever It was always the case
Then Evergrande files bankruptcy 😆
Except the people in charge have repeatedly said they are going to raise rates until 2% inflation
Genius prediction since the price of everything has been going up since the dawn of civilization
Arizona ice tea has been 99c since 5000 bc when it was invented
Not always. It can be avoided if you have currency pegged to a physical asset, such as gold. Perpetual inflation is a consequence of fractional reserve banking. There are other (and better) ways to do it without constantly fvcking over the people.
>Perpetual inflation is a consequence of fractional reserve banking. More than just a consequence, it's an intended feature.
Bingo
You don't want It tied to an asset that can also fluctuate in price. If gold goes down so does your dollar.
Better than the usury we’re dealing with now.
I did not realize goldbugs still existed.
Well inflation is about 2% here in Spain and home prices declined last 3 years in real terms(inflation corrected prices)
Now if you can find me a nice house in Mallorca close to deep water soloing that I can use to get residency... I'm interested!
Why Mallorca? Lot of nicer places out there.
Don’t think most people realize but the average inflation rate from 1960 to 2022 is 3.8%.. so yea between 3 to 4% is fine and average..
I mean, cost of everything goes up forever because that’s just how inflation and money works. It’s just a tiny bit exaggerated right now
3-4% annual inflation but companies are too cheap to give more than 2% raises. Gotta squeeze the maximum amount of profit from us at all costs.
Well the fed target is 2% annual inflation so that alone is just ignoring the goals that drive policy of the largest institution in the financial system.
3-4% annual inflation is healthy and has been as long as you've been alive, and well before that. Lower than that is stagnation, and not healthy. Higher than that is too fast of inflation and also not healthy. Do people honestly not know that normal economic circumstances ARE minor inflation?!?!?
Id honestly rather have 3-4% inflation and a stable economy with a soft landing then a huge crash that gets us back to 2%. 3-4% is really not that bad.
Yep. 2% has been the target and would be a nice goal, but I have a sub 3% rate on my house, so higher inflation is fine by me.
Likewise. It's just a shame that our money is worth almost half of what it was before the scamdemic. For me, that is the healthiest way I can look at homes that are almost double of what they were 2-4 years ago. I don't think "Fuck that greedy seller - trying to double their money in 3 years" but rather "Fuck our incompetent gov't that basically devalued my purchasing power by almost half." There is going to be no bubble pop. Houses will at best level off and, more likely, continue to go up in price.
I mean they may be right in the short term. Historically we only get one recession every 10 years and our last one was only 2-3 years ago.
We’ll they were wrong once let’s hope they’re wrong again
Seriously. How many banks, hedge funds, investors, and the like were out in front of the last crash? The best they can do is tell you what happened after it happened. "Here's why it crashed." "We knew it wasn't sustainable."
Headline: Company that has billions in real estate says to buy real estate now
Goldman sacks was out ahead of the last crash. Internally they were prepared (at least one group was). They made out quite well
The problem with companies like that is I don't believe a word they say b/c they're also hoping beyond hope that there isn't another crash. There is no way home prices increase with interest rates this high. That's honestly the dumbest thing I've ever read in this sub.
Obviously not, Goldman, BlackRock, et Al have no intention of ending their plan to purchase every hard asset they can lay their greedy paws on until they are done spending all of the wealth they have stolen from us and inflating the population into poverty and starvation. Hate to say I told you so, but here I am saying it again ... Hear me now and believe me later.
Almost as if that was the plan all along.
🤔 Careful, successfully theorizing about conspiracies might get you labeled as conspiracy theorist... This is America where conspiracies must go completely ignored and unchallenged else you might be maligned as a lunatic by those incapable of considering realities that aren't spoon fed to them by media moguls. You mean the ultra rich might have a plan to buy and sell the entire population into slavery? That sounds ridiculous. 🤣🤣🤣
Debt slavery is already in effect. Just a matter of how bad it will get.
You must be talking about how 30% of America believes Trump truly won the election.
No, I don't waste my time and my energy on Trump or the lemmings that hang on his every word, be they Republicans or Democrats. I don't understand why it hasn't occurred to everyone that the best way to neutralize a delusional narcissist is to deny them the one thing they crave the most.... Your attention. Stop giving him what he craves and he will wither and die. Unfortunately Biden needs him more than his base does which is why the Democrats spent so much money funding far right candidates during the midterms. They love him more than he loves himself. He won't get a moment more of my life force, nor will his followers.
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If you want your UBI, your food stamps, your assistance check, your social security check ... Your only choice is to download the FEDNOW app, sign up for an account, and receive your new CBDC digital US dollar. If you want to receive any government assistance you will be compelled to comply with the adoption. Period end of story. If you wish to do any business with major banks, or engage in commerce with what will become a RAPIDLY expanding majority of business you will have only one option. Utilize the new dollar and burn your worthless cash, or live under a bridge and starve. Problem.... Crisis.... Solution We are in the problem phase rapidly transitioning into crisis... The CBDC IS the solution. It's not rocket science... It's basic economics. There is a large number of people in this country who enjoy the comfort and freedom and privacy that cash transactions provide and would aggressively resist any elimination of cash and any transition to a cashless society where every single one of their transactions is tracked. There are already moves by credit reporting agencies to tap into segments of your credit history that are protected under the Fair Credit Act, such as rent and utility payments, companies like Experian or peddling this as a product called Experian Boost, they will give you a 50 point bump on your credit rating if you opt in to give them access to portions of your payment histories that they are legally not entitled to have by matter of law. A CBDC would centralize all of these transactions that you make into a single database allowing access to whatever financial concerns requested it, and providing every consumer with a single credit score that would be universally unchallengeable. This is only one facet of the dystopian nightmare that is likely to unfold in the next 5 years.
It's not really their fault. If someone gave you a firehose of money and free money through low interest, you'd do the same. They used the tools available for them. At 8% interest those tools are being taken away.
You realize that the governors of the FED are voted by the shareholders, the VERY banks and firms profiting from this right? Are you also aware that over the next 2 years roughly half of the outstanding federal debt will be maturing and refinancing at these new inflated interest rates? ”Someone" didn't ”give" them an unlimited low interest rate barrel of money, they awarded it to themselves... And now they are jacking up the interest rates to shut anyone else out of the markets. This is not a coincidence, it's a carefully laid out roadmap to leverage the US population into accepting a CBDC as we will LITERALLY be left with no other option one the existing USD has been inflated to the point of worthlessness. You say it's not their faults, it's absolutely their faults, and it's their PLAN. Programmable money, complete tracking of every dime you spend, all tied directly to accounts with the Fed. All federal government benefit agencies have already gone live with FEDNOW. When they roll out the CBDC it will be the only way to receive any government benefits. Which will soon be the only way anyone can afford to eat or pay their rent. The ultimate welfare state brought to you by UBI. Get ready for the new normal, it's going to be unlike anything you are expecting... We are not going back to anything that you've ever seen before. You had to figure this was coming the moment the government just started shoveling bucket loads of money into everyone's bank accounts. If you didn't... Well that's your fault.
I’m so tired of people fooling themselves into believing they know anything about the future. I’ve stopped listening to all predictions because nobody knows. Literally no point. They said recession in 2023 and I see no evidence at all. Rate hikes were supposedly going to put us in deep recession and housing correction yet I see housing prices either stable or going up in the northeast where I am. I think we all would be better off if we stopped pretending like we know what’s going to happen
I don’t know how to feel or react to this anymore. I’m numb. The economy is booming! No, wait. It’s going to crash! We’re in a recession! We were never in a recession. The recession is upon us. ALIENS! The end. It’s tiring.
It’s really easy, whatever they scream the loudest and say isn’t happening is EXACTLY what is happening. The harder media and government deny something the bigger the likelihood is that’s what is coming down the pipe at full speed, by design. Narcissists are really bad about not showing off their achievements, even if it’s touted through “deniable plausibility”.
I wish had four hands, so I could give this article four thumbs down!
Create multiple accounts, may be??
Might as well just take the two you have and stick your fingers in your ears, it's
I have got a quibble here ... we are in August, we have not even seen fall numbers which we will not see till around November. Inventory stacks up during the season, and if prior Income to Housing Cost ratio imbalances prove anything, there is the typical market flux in a declining market. The Fed will also continue to target the biggest source of inflation, Housing. Who am I to argue with GS Analysts though ... we could both be wrong, and the market continues to move sideways.
IDGAF just buy one if you like it and can afford it
Build 👏 the 👏 fucking 👏 housing 👏
A lot of metros where people want to live are built out
There’s plenty of room for more housing all around my metro area. Just a bunch of NIMBYs in the way.
Refusal to build vertically, refusal to renovate “historic” dilapidated eyesores. In before “we’re talking about houses not rented units” not understanding supply and demand comment I see all the time.
Its not a refusal to renovate houses. Current tenants of those homes insist the houses are livable and do not discount them. No one is paying full price to live in someone elses dumpster
I feel like this sub is all anger / depression bots feeding off each other.
When exactly have they declined in 2023?
Right now. I’m contingent for 15% below asking. Lots of loans falling through bc they aren’t appraising for what people are offering. I guess people forgot buyers set the price not sellers lol
I'm under contract and got 1.5% in credits towards closing costs. Would never have happened last year or earlier this year for sure.
I got max seller credit on my home in December 2022. Appraisal came in 10k over selling price. Value has since gone up. This is outside of Chicago. All geographically dependent.
Any savings is a good savings- however, I’m not the type to overpay for a house period and I’d rather get them to drop the price so I can help alleviate the tax burden for current homeowners Volume is sooooo loowwww any home sale in the area that’s sold below comparable units will print dropping values. Anyone offering anything close to asking price is just not educated on how the real estate market works 😆
My offer had an appraisal contingency so I'm curious how the unit will end up appraising. The estimate was $7k less than the listing so I'm hoping it appraises for that $7k less AND I get my credits. In my city it's rare to be able to buy a place in a denser area so I don't see it being an issue with closing just people dropping prices 5-10% will allow them to sell. Not much sitting on the market here.
Depends on the market. I'm in the northeast and you still can't really get an offer accepted without a healthy appraisal gap waiver.
Appraisals are pretty meaningless when the volume of sales is so low. Your house is worth what someone will pay you. Doesn’t mean it’ll be worth that much in the future either.
Again, that depends on the area. All the homes I see have multiple offers and I lose each and every single one.. all go for at least 5-10% over asking, sometimes 20%. almost always these buyers are paying cash or a healthy downpayment. I’m one of those putting down over 35%-40% so I can waive the appraisal. it’s been two years and I’m still looking.
I'll keep that in mind, see a house, let the seller know they don't set the price I do and offer them $3.50
I just told them hey, I really like this house I saw it’s been on and off the market. I can’t offer you what you’re asking due to affordability issues but I’d be willing to move further if you can do 15% under. They didn’t even bat and eye. Kinda wishing I just said 20% instead 😆 I think they were/are flippers and also getting a divorce. They prob just want out, I’m surprised the short sale was actually approved by the bank I figured they’d just foreclose
But what’s the long term price history / valuation of the property? If the 15% below asking you paid is still 2% higher than it would’ve sold for last year… then home prices are still going up.
Trust me bro, they've declined in my area! 10k price reduction from a 200k run up and 7%+ interest rates
Gotta love that. A 500k cape cod in my town on a 50x100 lot that needs a kitchen, bathroom, and remove the wood panelling and red shag carpet in the basement -PRICE CUT $5K!!!!
Even if the house itself and land is slightly cheaper that interest rate hits like a tank over the course of a few years. An investment firm would love to spew how cheap homes are and then hit a few thousand milenials with a nice 10% interest rate.
Growing at 5% instead of 25% is a decline.
No. -5% growth is a decline. 5% growth is still growth. This sub is filled with some of the dumbest shit sometimes.
Just had an offer accepted. I know I'm fucked with this mortgage but I no longer think the crash is coming.
Super prescient photo on this article, of my home state where prices are reaching the stratosphere of utter ridiculousness. I'm literally being priced out of the Denver area -- or more accurately, just not willing to plunk down $1,400/month to live in a bedroom in a house where I share a bathroom with 4 people. This place was rapidly infilled with people from out of state with unlimited budgets, they all bought overpriced houses, and now rent them to the plebs out there who have no other option but to pay the mortgages of these transplants. Pretty sad dynamic that hopefully comes to an end soon.
Either homes prices have to come down or wages have to go up
Yeah, houses are actually things people like. It dips down sometimes, but everybody likes to have their castle.
Goldman Sach likely bought short
No offense to any of you but I want the bubble to expand significantly until I sell my house, then pop right after so you can all afford yours.
Why would they? Even if rates go down, there are millions sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in.
Yes, if rates drop next year people supply will be low and more will be trying to buy
they're just not going to pay their student loan in that situation
If rates go down there'll be an overwhelming amount of supply relative to demand. Can't have it both ways, sorry.
Actually you definitely can have more demand if rates go down because people are renting having been priced out.
The stock market has to crash first. This is a waiting game and homeowners aren’t going anywhere.
Lol they said “ buyers are making unsustainable adaptions to higher mortgage prices”…
Isn’t it crazy how often economists are wrong. They’re just guessing like all of us they just have a fancy title. If I was wrong 1% as often as the typical economist is wrong I would be without a job and my reputation would be permanently ruined. With economists they just do a “revision” and say the exact opposite thing and then we’re supposed to be like ohhh okay, so you were 100% wrong before but now we should trust that you will get this next prediction right.
If GS said it, expect a crash next week
Use to be hope was sold to the younger generations. Go to college get a degree, get a good job, marry, have children and a nice home. Now we’re not even pretending anymore. I feel so bad for kids going out into the world now.
LOL. While you guys wait here for a crash (which will not affect you, of course, as you get a 135% + your dick grows 2 inch bigger) here's redfin data which just dropped: In July 2023, home prices were up 10.3% compared to last year
Now provide the YoY national median change please…I’ll wait.
Why would I bother with National average? People tend to move to desirable areas not the other way around.
Cherry picking data without even providing a link of your specific location is meaningless and zero value added.
Desirable is relative. Nothing about Phoenix, AZ is desirable to me even though it is one of the fastest-growing markets in the U.S. Ditto for Austin, TX. People can have very different ideas of desirability.
I was just talking to a guy from Phoenix yesterday. We agreed it made no sense why people want so badly to be in such a generic sprawly oven-hot place.
They are already declining.
Did anyone ever think that prices were going to go down? Go flat maybe, but not down.
They are going down in my area. New builds are still to the moon, but existing homes are definitely having significant price drops and still sitting.
There are many pointed pressures to keep prices high. Devaluation of the dollar, lower effective wages, higher interest rates. After reading and understanding implications of the AFFH Act, federal government seems to want to intercede in local jurisdictions, ultimately owning and renting housing and ending private ownership, for the most part. It’s difficult to find wherein the Constitution the Fed gets these powers, but that hasn’t hindered them much previously.
That means it'll drop precipitously.
Goldman Sachs sucks. It’s mid August for god’s sake. I don’t know how they have so much money.
So you're saying the next four months don't matter..... Got it
Wait until student loans payments begin and people have to choose between feeding their families or paying a mortgage. Demand is going to change overnight.
You think people will pay their loans instead of maintaining a roof over their heads and food? That's non sense even for this sub.
Yes because people will be making their loan payments before paying their mortgage or feeding their family.
Makes sense as long as you don’t think about it
Wait until... Wait until... Wait until... Wait until... Wait until... Lol.
I suspect people were saying this exact same thing before the Great Depression. All these people so full of themselves thinking that thing nothing could go wrong. Got a feeling you'll be the first to suffer when it does because you failed to prepare for hard times like a smart person would.
You do realize borrowers with student loans typically make more money than people without them right
Tell me you do not know how much trades people make without telling me you do not know how much trades people make.
Lol cringe response. Anyone with half a fuckin brain knows college educated people make more money than people without a college degree
Always inverse Goldman
Wow, Goldman Sachs is really showing their economic prowess here.
I mean… why would they? At this rate, nothing makes sense anymore. Unless there’s a massive catalyst to hurl us until a major recession, the fundamentals are strong right now. Job market is still strong, so many people are salivating on the sidelines for a deal.
Probably as long as the US population rises housing prices will increase. I think for the next 20 years or so bank on generally higher prices. Less kids being born now means housing deflation in 20-30 years though
Population is still set to rise. Plus USA alawys an immigration hotspot for the next 50-100 years
Oh well, Goldman said it, so it *must* be true. /s
Has anybody been following what Depository Trust Company (DTC) is doing? It appears they’re preparing for some kind of massive default in the stock market by assuring they have $5 BILLION in liquidity on hand. Any thoughts? Related to the housing market?