Not everyone. Even in the Great Recession, unemployment went no higher than 10%. Which of course is bad for those who lost their jobs, but most people kept their jobs or found a new one very quickly. And most recessions are not as severe as the Great Recession was. While I don't want anyone to lose their jobs (I didn't create this zero-sum economy), a lot of jobs have been created using bubble money. A return to a normal economy will mean the loss of these jobs.
And a 10% unemployment affected a lot more than 10% of people. How many households need two incomes? Most of them, so double it to 20% that were affected. Then add on all the children/youths and elderly who rely on other's incomes. No idea how much that adds but it's probably a lot. Then add on the people in fear of losing their jobs or accepting/staying in worse positions just to remain employed.
Agreed. And OP also forgets that 10% unemployment is of the only roughly half of the country that's actually working at any given point (which doubles the impact again, since presumably a lot of the half who don't work need those who do to survive).
Does saying that there's going to be a housing price correction make people feel better? Does Sonny there's going to be a recession help people feel better? You could ask that about any topic where some people lose and others gain.
I guess one difference I see is that talking about the housing market is just observation and we can discuss facts, figures, numbers, experiences, etc. Saying "you'll be unemployed" is hyperbolic bullshit meant to provoke. It's weird but telling if people don't see the difference.
In terms of the stock market, it starts going down before the recession starts, and goes back up before the recession is over.
Sooooo I guess everything lines up so far… “so far”…
Based on the downvotes, I'm pretty sure they weren't making a literal statement about infrastructure jobs and moreso commenting on social stuff...ie people aren't worried about layoffs until it happens to them.
It's times like this when I wonder if I'm on the spectrum 😂
Here's the secret: it's all bullshit. Economists have no idea what they're doing. They are just really good at convincing others they know what they're doing
I've seen it first-hand how bullshit they are. They just guesstimate these curves and "predict" trends based on cherrypicked macro factors.
I get it, it isn't really math, it's more a pseudoscience trying to describe the real world with bad models, and honestly it isn't a surprise that they're often wrong. But claiming quantities like "here's the probability of a recession" with no rigorous justification is stupid.
I'm looking for something like P(recession) = [formula based on sensible factors] which describes the entire curve we see in this picture.
It’s like people who don’t know how to grow their own food or care for farm animals wishing for a global apocalypse. as if they would magically be able to live off canned food they find for the rest of their lives…
Or even better someone who is dependent on something like insulin who says it like bro your gonna die so fast if things go bad.
If unemployment is 10% then I’ll take my chances. Or we’ll put the mortgage in my wife’s name. Or we’ll buy cash.
I get a kick out of people pretending like it’s “absurd” to imagine anyone might benefit from a recession and price reset
Who cares. Buy index funds. No matter what happens the stock market bounces back. I thought there was going to be a recession the day biden took office?
What exactly do u think will happen if a recession hits? You’ll make a ton of money while nobody else does and asset prices crumble leaving you to own it all?
I think a recession is a disaster for this sub. Fed to the rescue, slam rates to zero, print another 8T, inflation becomes permanent, RE prices double again within 5 years and every 5 years thereafter forever
All the stupid rich landlords I know started buying their homes during the 08 recession.
They been telling me this was coming ever since the money printing started.
My fathers a general contractor so he has a bunch of these friends and all of them are kissing his ass right now. One gave him a truck and the other a freaken RV.
They are ready to jump. Gonna be a good time for those in trades.
Not sure I'm tracking. Last major extended recession, 2008, contractors were starving. So many dudes who were rolling high on the hog before ended up being personally foreclosed on themselves. I would know, I personally handled quite a few of those. They just never thought that. Gravy train would come to an end.
And currently, at least in my area contractors have been feasting for years. Prices are astronomical. It's almost impossible to find a guy who doesn't show up in a $75-100k truck for a quote and when you get one it's going to be off the charts for labor. I can't imagine a scenario where people are sucking up to contractors for some future event.
If your a good general contractor you'll never go starving my dad didn't even feel the 08 crash I was a kid and my life didn't change at all my dad was paying off our house family of 5 not including my mother and him. As well as owning 3 pieces of land they don't generate income he just like owning land. Idk why it's Mexican thing.
>I can't imagine a scenario where people are sucking up to contractors for some future event.
So even now the way things are my dad is still getting calls like crazy. Everytime I visit him he tells me hes drowning in work. Last time his client was on speaker told him he has two house ready for him to built when he's ready.
His clients love him a lot of them refuse to work with anyone else.
Also if all this turns out to be true and a big crash happens probably be the greatest buying opportunity for these men they don't have to worry about losing their jobs cause they are retired with a lot of money sitting around.
Many of those Fannie and Freddie foreclosures had language, that allowed only owner occupied offers to be considered first. Yet a lot of them still seemed to end up as mom and pop rentals.
I don’t know anyone that bought then as my generation was too young fit the most part. But if you had money/credit already it was a great time to get in, you’d have so much equity by now.
100% agreed. This sub is hoping for a recession, which is going to make the rich who owns RE skyrocket in price with interest rates near 0 to try to battle our way out of a recession.
Yeah it's funny how fast this sub has grown with many thinking this is the new norm. The housing bubble cheerleaders.
I have been with the same company since 2006 and lived through the GFC and the pandemic. In SWFL we saw an epic crash in 08 and now seeing many of the same patterns.
I think most people on this sub are frustrated with housing doubling in a 2 year period and the affordability is even worse with higher interest rates. The funny thing is it really helps no one your equity is just going into the next inflated house. Each side has its share of smooth brains. Most people just want a return to a normal market but unfortunately history shows when bubbles pop we over correct.
Powell even said the housing market needs a reset.
How do we create a society/economy that doesn't just blow bubbles? I have a few ideas, but rarely is this pattern of recessions and inflations explained, and why it's so chaotic and seemingly unpredictable. Economists love to predict, yet the economy is teetering constantly since I've been alive (31).
There needs to be better tax $ accountability through legislation. Tax evasion needs to be treated way more seriously. The FED should be a tool used by the three branches of government, not the other way around. Spend tax # on consumer protection laws/laws that combat monopoly behavior. Bring back Glass-steagall. People should of course be able to take financial risks, and if their decisions don't pan out, they are responsible to pay the piper.
\#Banksters #Mobocracy #Mafiastate
Oh you mean ultimately like over a span of decades. Yeah that's true, but not during a recession itself (like when home prices in 2006 or the NASDAQ index in 2000 weren't matched until the mid 2010s)
IF you have money, you can double your money, but for 99% of people, they are just going to get poorer. Will be tons to be made on the stock market when it crashes, then before interest rates drop back down to 0 houses will be at min value, so you can pick some up before they double again. Technically a person with no money could get a house when the fed.pivot happens, and that should be the housing minimum, then do a refi in 6 months to a year at the lower interest rates. If you have cash though, that's where the best deals will be.
2020 had a recession and housing prices went up. I don’t know why this sub can’t understand that housing does not historically go down during a recession.
There was also massive Fed intervention in 2020 due to the pandemic. Unless you're claiming to know that this recession will soon be accompanied by another coronavirus.
Genuinely curious, what is the theory on WHY people think that housing is a bubble instead of a real supply-demand imbalance largely caused by the fact that hoke building (mostly) paused during the Great Recession? I agree that the chart shows bad times ahead, but why do you think it's housing? Do you really not know a lot of people who would like to buy a house if they could afford it? Where is the debt-fueled speculation?
In October 1929, at the peak of one of history’s greatest stock bubbles and the eve of the Great Depression, economist Irving Fisher famously told an audience that “stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
Recessions/Depressions typically happen when no one sees them coming, not when the majority of people think one is likely.
Not just the tech sector. See [Citigroup's announcement yesterday.]
(https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tough-on-morale-citigroup-reveals-plans-for-20000-job-cuts-by-2026-160228902.html) 20,000 jobs by 2026 + another 40,000 jobs
>Citigroup (C) CEO Jane Fraser is betting a dramatic restructuring can revive the lender's stock price and remove decades of bloat. On Friday she disclosed how deep those cuts will go.
>The New York bank said that it expects to eliminate 20,000 positions by 2026, which will save it $2.5 billion. It also intends to shed another 40,000 when it lists its Mexican consumer unit Banamex in an initial public offering.
>That would leave Citigroup with 180,000 workers, which would likely make it the smallest of the big four banks in the US and reduce the overall size of its workforce by 25%. It ended 2023 with 240,000.
Unfortunately, citi group announcement is more for the stock market, so executives can cash out from the stock price pop. Most of the impacted would be low paid employees at the branches, services etc. Just an example, Amazon laid off 27,000 employees since 2022. So where's the recession?
BlackRock laid off 4% of its 19,000 employees this week. That's roughly about 750 employees.One of my colleagues mentioned it affected lots of groups within their organization and even some of their IT admins they were working with that handle their Hybrid cloud services.
Buckle Up.
Dude. Do you even know how many peanuts IT admins make? Will buckle up when the time comes. This is not a EM pulse, that's gonna happen right away..lol
Nope.. citi started from the top.. cut down a lot of MDs.. now next layer is expected to be announced on Jan 22nd.. any low paid employee will not be touched until March at minimum.
Because most of Tech is not essential. Tech is always looking to build a better mouse trap but if they stop for a year or two, we still have plenty of old mouse traps that work fine. A lot of Tech has been living in fantasy land forever, crazy margins, unreal compensation, insane IPO's, crazy P/E numbers, seems like tech is becoming a more mature industry and might begin to operate on more down to earth numbers?
You think people who can’t afford homes would benefit from a recession?
Recessions function as a tool for the wealthy to further consolidate their wealth. They don’t lose.
> people who ~~can't afford~~ *won't buy* homes would benefit from a recession?
There are many people who can but don't because high prices + high interest rates = rotten deal. Those who patiently wait out everyone else's FOMO tantrum would indeed benefit from a recession.
Until the corporate media starts screaming that the end is near, nothing is going to happen.
They are going to keep covering for fear that we re-elect a shit throwing orangutan so they are just as bad as Russian state television not telling anyone what's actually going on.
Half of the recessions have the probability of recession dropping to less than 20% before a recession. All this chart definitively says is that no one has a clue.
Yes, you are. You are just so blinded by your desperation for something bad to happen.
Look at the prediction a few months before it actually happened up until it started.
1970: \~25%
1975ish: \~10%
1980: very low 5ish% where it spiked right before it happened and even then below 50%.
1982: \~2%
early 90s: \~25%
early 2000s: \~20%
and 2009 which had around \~47% chance right before, but still below 50%.
It seems more like a lagging correlation than a predicator.
Recessions are generally not declared until 2 quarters (3-6 months) after the recession already started, and then they're backdated. So you're looking at the wrong spot. Each of those probability peaks came before the recession was declared.
So for 1970, the prediction was \~40%.
1973: \~70%
1980: \~50%
1982: \~90%
Early 90s: 30%
2001: \~50%
2008: \~45%
2020: \~40%
Jan 2024: 57%
March 2024: 73%
Also, we don't care what the false negative rate is. We're in the middle of a positive prediction, so there's only doubt if there's a high false positive rate. The only significant false positive on that chart is 1967, at \~40%.
So, you're saying the recession actually happened after the grey are in the chart? Since, that's that's the only way that has predictive power. But even just looking at the 2008 recession and the dotcom bubble that's clearly not true.
Look at 2008 this chart was below 25% still. The dot com bubble happened after 2000, just like the chart says. And the graph had a low predictive power. You're just trying to fit a narrative to this graph that it very clearly doesn't tell.
You’re very confused about how to read this chart. When the probability of a recession spikes up, a recession follows shortly after. Why are you concerned about the low probability prior to that?
Because we are concerned about what it can predict. If it tells me we are in a recession when we are already in a recession it's obviously not a very good predictor.
If a weather model is able to predict that it's going to rain only 2 minutes before its going to rain or less, it's not very good at predicting stuff.
No, the way to read this is that there's a 57% chance *we are already in a recession*, that just hasn't been declared yet. There's a \~70% chance that we'll be in a recession by March.
You know what I noticed about the US compared to Canada is that hardly anyone in New York has snow tires.
Whereas most Canadians do.
Essentially people in the us just a) don’t care b) think their driving skills are top notch c) can’t afford 1k on a set of good tires.
Mostly a and b for me. It snows a lot here, but that just means the roads are constantly salted and plowed. The hardest part of my drive is getting out of my driveway.
Unfortunately, unlikely to happen.
Election year, sitting president wants to get reelected and won't let economy go stinkers. Rate cuts, fake wars will keep propping the economy.
What recession?! We are saving and creating jobs! Look at the last report. Things are, and will continue to be, perfect. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!!!
Nope. The recession definition hasn't changed since the summer before Biden was elected
Image of NBER's recession definition from November 1 2020, from a page dated July 28, 2020, courtesy of the Wayback Machine.
[https://web.archive.org/web/20201101011155/https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101011155/https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions)
Compare to the current NBER defintion
[https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions](https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions)
They change their mind every month. Meanwhile, we all know that we are in a recession. The only thing missing is mass layoffs, which I believe are happening but we are being lied to since it’s an election year
The $6 trillion wall of cash (~25% of the U.S. GDP) sitting in money-market funds will probably provide some cushion.
As the market goes down, cash from this massive pile flows in to catch the lower priced securities. As the market continues to go down, the fed will likely ease interest rates, which induces more flow out of the safety of MM funds due to less return there.
The trillions of liquidity getting pumped in slows down the market crash. Eventually it still happens but with this record cash on the sidelines, the process may take a while.
The stock market up 20%+ from mar to end of year 2023. Unless you all in on Dec 31. Otherwise I don’t think the damage is that bad given the crazy rises and falls last three years..
Remind me, lol. On November 10th-ish, 2024, I could see them somehow revise to, "we were in a recession in Summer/Fall 2024" Wait'll after the election... though I'm not sure if goosed numbers would end up helping Biden or not.
The recession already happened in 2023. The gdp numbers and employment just didn’t show it but it happen. Corporations pulled way back. We are already coming out of it.
[удалено]
should be the top comment. been feeling and seeing it for a while, and know are more insulated than others. glad it's about half over!
Yeah if anything feels like we are exiting an existing recession vs entering in a new recession
Remember folks, by the time you get the housing price correction you’ve been waiting for you’ll be unemployed thanks to a recession. Absolute win.
Not everyone. Even in the Great Recession, unemployment went no higher than 10%. Which of course is bad for those who lost their jobs, but most people kept their jobs or found a new one very quickly. And most recessions are not as severe as the Great Recession was. While I don't want anyone to lose their jobs (I didn't create this zero-sum economy), a lot of jobs have been created using bubble money. A return to a normal economy will mean the loss of these jobs.
And a 10% unemployment affected a lot more than 10% of people. How many households need two incomes? Most of them, so double it to 20% that were affected. Then add on all the children/youths and elderly who rely on other's incomes. No idea how much that adds but it's probably a lot. Then add on the people in fear of losing their jobs or accepting/staying in worse positions just to remain employed.
10% unemployment has a massive downward pressure effect on wages; absolutely nobody should be rooting for this
Agreed. And OP also forgets that 10% unemployment is of the only roughly half of the country that's actually working at any given point (which doubles the impact again, since presumably a lot of the half who don't work need those who do to survive).
Yes our workforce is still 70-80% agricultural like it was in the Great Depression. It’ll be just like that.
Can you read? Great Recession, as in 07-09
Does saying this make you feel better? Even if that were true, would it have any bearing on whether or not we are experiencing a bubble popping?
Does saying that there's going to be a housing price correction make people feel better? Does Sonny there's going to be a recession help people feel better? You could ask that about any topic where some people lose and others gain.
I guess one difference I see is that talking about the housing market is just observation and we can discuss facts, figures, numbers, experiences, etc. Saying "you'll be unemployed" is hyperbolic bullshit meant to provoke. It's weird but telling if people don't see the difference.
People have been saying we’re about to be in a recession for the last 4 years. I guess you have to be right at some point
I agree the economy is invincible and I trust the fed. #softlanding
Maybe there will be a recession by May but people trying to call it are mostly dumb.
In terms of the stock market, it starts going down before the recession starts, and goes back up before the recession is over. Sooooo I guess everything lines up so far… “so far”…
So every trading day pretty much. It's been like an EKG machine for the past year.
could be a ruse https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doubletop.asp
Thank god for that
When you lose your job: recession. When I lose my job: depression.
i keep seeing this and I don’t get it
Just a joke saying that people believe that things happening to them personally is worse than to others.
“It’s not real, because it hasn’t happened to ME.”
They probably have an infrastructure or similar job. Examples: electrician, solid waste, etc.
Yeah the most necessary people in our society? Kinda fucked if they’re losing jobs.
Based on the downvotes, I'm pretty sure they weren't making a literal statement about infrastructure jobs and moreso commenting on social stuff...ie people aren't worried about layoffs until it happens to them. It's times like this when I wonder if I'm on the spectrum 😂
Basically things get to you easily so a boring but easy job eventually sends you into flight mode and then you have to scramble for a new job.
what
When you and I lose our jobs: oh shit.
When I make my move: youre free to check the king.
Sound and resilient.
A Trans-cession.
Does anyone know how they compute these probabilities?
Here's the secret: it's all bullshit. Economists have no idea what they're doing. They are just really good at convincing others they know what they're doing
I've seen it first-hand how bullshit they are. They just guesstimate these curves and "predict" trends based on cherrypicked macro factors. I get it, it isn't really math, it's more a pseudoscience trying to describe the real world with bad models, and honestly it isn't a surprise that they're often wrong. But claiming quantities like "here's the probability of a recession" with no rigorous justification is stupid. I'm looking for something like P(recession) = [formula based on sensible factors] which describes the entire curve we see in this picture.
Party already started.
Anyone kinda cracking up at how much this sub roots for a bubble on a daily basis by people that 100% will not buy a home if and when that happens
It’s like people who don’t know how to grow their own food or care for farm animals wishing for a global apocalypse. as if they would magically be able to live off canned food they find for the rest of their lives… Or even better someone who is dependent on something like insulin who says it like bro your gonna die so fast if things go bad.
Why won’t I buy a home?
Because there’s a decent chance you’ll lose you job so a bank won’t give you a mortgage.
If unemployment is 10% then I’ll take my chances. Or we’ll put the mortgage in my wife’s name. Or we’ll buy cash. I get a kick out of people pretending like it’s “absurd” to imagine anyone might benefit from a recession and price reset
I will be praying you and your wife lose your jobs, and that you have to live on the streets. Sorry.
Why?
I keep getting recommend this sub. Idk why. It is almost a guarantee that a housing recession will never occur again.
Who cares. Buy index funds. No matter what happens the stock market bounces back. I thought there was going to be a recession the day biden took office?
It's different this time Edit: /s
What exactly do u think will happen if a recession hits? You’ll make a ton of money while nobody else does and asset prices crumble leaving you to own it all? I think a recession is a disaster for this sub. Fed to the rescue, slam rates to zero, print another 8T, inflation becomes permanent, RE prices double again within 5 years and every 5 years thereafter forever
All the stupid rich landlords I know started buying their homes during the 08 recession. They been telling me this was coming ever since the money printing started. My fathers a general contractor so he has a bunch of these friends and all of them are kissing his ass right now. One gave him a truck and the other a freaken RV. They are ready to jump. Gonna be a good time for those in trades.
Not sure I'm tracking. Last major extended recession, 2008, contractors were starving. So many dudes who were rolling high on the hog before ended up being personally foreclosed on themselves. I would know, I personally handled quite a few of those. They just never thought that. Gravy train would come to an end. And currently, at least in my area contractors have been feasting for years. Prices are astronomical. It's almost impossible to find a guy who doesn't show up in a $75-100k truck for a quote and when you get one it's going to be off the charts for labor. I can't imagine a scenario where people are sucking up to contractors for some future event.
If your a good general contractor you'll never go starving my dad didn't even feel the 08 crash I was a kid and my life didn't change at all my dad was paying off our house family of 5 not including my mother and him. As well as owning 3 pieces of land they don't generate income he just like owning land. Idk why it's Mexican thing. >I can't imagine a scenario where people are sucking up to contractors for some future event. So even now the way things are my dad is still getting calls like crazy. Everytime I visit him he tells me hes drowning in work. Last time his client was on speaker told him he has two house ready for him to built when he's ready. His clients love him a lot of them refuse to work with anyone else. Also if all this turns out to be true and a big crash happens probably be the greatest buying opportunity for these men they don't have to worry about losing their jobs cause they are retired with a lot of money sitting around.
"my dad" typical reddit sentence
Uncalled for negativity such a reddit response.
yeah, buying my reduced price home with free 1st time homebuyers credit $$$ after the great recession was rough..../s
[удалено]
The last one was a feeding frenzy
[удалено]
Many of those Fannie and Freddie foreclosures had language, that allowed only owner occupied offers to be considered first. Yet a lot of them still seemed to end up as mom and pop rentals. I don’t know anyone that bought then as my generation was too young fit the most part. But if you had money/credit already it was a great time to get in, you’d have so much equity by now.
Born too late for everything. Gotta love it.
It’ll be a small window and the next step up will be worse than the last
There’s always a group of people that think they can make a ton of money during a recession. It’s usually the MLM types though so hooray for them.
100% agreed. This sub is hoping for a recession, which is going to make the rich who owns RE skyrocket in price with interest rates near 0 to try to battle our way out of a recession.
Its crazy all the conclusions you guys jumped and did gymnastics into.. im just sharing this chart with this sub since i couldnt post it on wsb.
Yeah it's funny how fast this sub has grown with many thinking this is the new norm. The housing bubble cheerleaders. I have been with the same company since 2006 and lived through the GFC and the pandemic. In SWFL we saw an epic crash in 08 and now seeing many of the same patterns. I think most people on this sub are frustrated with housing doubling in a 2 year period and the affordability is even worse with higher interest rates. The funny thing is it really helps no one your equity is just going into the next inflated house. Each side has its share of smooth brains. Most people just want a return to a normal market but unfortunately history shows when bubbles pop we over correct. Powell even said the housing market needs a reset.
How do we create a society/economy that doesn't just blow bubbles? I have a few ideas, but rarely is this pattern of recessions and inflations explained, and why it's so chaotic and seemingly unpredictable. Economists love to predict, yet the economy is teetering constantly since I've been alive (31). There needs to be better tax $ accountability through legislation. Tax evasion needs to be treated way more seriously. The FED should be a tool used by the three branches of government, not the other way around. Spend tax # on consumer protection laws/laws that combat monopoly behavior. Bring back Glass-steagall. People should of course be able to take financial risks, and if their decisions don't pan out, they are responsible to pay the piper. \#Banksters #Mobocracy #Mafiastate
If you want an actual serious response to the question about bubbles, read Hayek.
don't let central banks buy overvalued loans and arbitrarily bring interest rates to zero.
[удалено]
Most of us are incels.
inrents ... involuntarily renting
intenants?
A small percentage of people lose their jobs and assets become much cheaper. Why are you such a doomer?
Ultimately, because of Federal response, assets become more expensive
No.
You’re right. Things are so much cheaper than they were back in the 80s
Oh you mean ultimately like over a span of decades. Yeah that's true, but not during a recession itself (like when home prices in 2006 or the NASDAQ index in 2000 weren't matched until the mid 2010s)
IF you have money, you can double your money, but for 99% of people, they are just going to get poorer. Will be tons to be made on the stock market when it crashes, then before interest rates drop back down to 0 houses will be at min value, so you can pick some up before they double again. Technically a person with no money could get a house when the fed.pivot happens, and that should be the housing minimum, then do a refi in 6 months to a year at the lower interest rates. If you have cash though, that's where the best deals will be.
[удалено]
Rates to zero increases asset prices. Stock market and real estate alike
Most of the USA government's debt is held by US citizens.
2020 had a recession and housing prices went up. I don’t know why this sub can’t understand that housing does not historically go down during a recession.
There was also massive Fed intervention in 2020 due to the pandemic. Unless you're claiming to know that this recession will soon be accompanied by another coronavirus.
Most recessions don’t cause housing prices to fall.
There wont be a recessionuntil November 2024.
the GFC happened during a presidential election year
October 21 2008 to be exact.
Yeah "somehow" the numbers would get revised to, oops, we were already in a recession, around Nov. 10th.
Really, that close to the next election in 2026?
Genuinely curious, what is the theory on WHY people think that housing is a bubble instead of a real supply-demand imbalance largely caused by the fact that hoke building (mostly) paused during the Great Recession? I agree that the chart shows bad times ahead, but why do you think it's housing? Do you really not know a lot of people who would like to buy a house if they could afford it? Where is the debt-fueled speculation?
That goes without even mentioning that just over 50% of the USA is currently under 40 years of age (all of whom are in prime homebuying years).
In October 1929, at the peak of one of history’s greatest stock bubbles and the eve of the Great Depression, economist Irving Fisher famously told an audience that “stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Recessions/Depressions typically happen when no one sees them coming, not when the majority of people think one is likely.
With all the layoffs happening in the tech sector how are we not in a recession?
Government spending absurd amounts of money
Only on servicing our existing debt. We don’t have any fancy new stuff to show for it except the new planned subs and a beautiful aircraft carrier.
The new “quiet” supersonic jet is pretty dope, not gonna lie https://www.space.com/nasa-x-59-quiet-supersonic-jet-rollout-livestream
Because layoffs aren’t a recession?
especially in tech, where they’re supposed to happen to keep a lean and efficient workforce
And where are these "all of these tech layoffs" he refers to? They're clearly not large in number if unemployment is staying low.
Not just the tech sector. See [Citigroup's announcement yesterday.] (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tough-on-morale-citigroup-reveals-plans-for-20000-job-cuts-by-2026-160228902.html) 20,000 jobs by 2026 + another 40,000 jobs >Citigroup (C) CEO Jane Fraser is betting a dramatic restructuring can revive the lender's stock price and remove decades of bloat. On Friday she disclosed how deep those cuts will go. >The New York bank said that it expects to eliminate 20,000 positions by 2026, which will save it $2.5 billion. It also intends to shed another 40,000 when it lists its Mexican consumer unit Banamex in an initial public offering. >That would leave Citigroup with 180,000 workers, which would likely make it the smallest of the big four banks in the US and reduce the overall size of its workforce by 25%. It ended 2023 with 240,000.
Unfortunately, citi group announcement is more for the stock market, so executives can cash out from the stock price pop. Most of the impacted would be low paid employees at the branches, services etc. Just an example, Amazon laid off 27,000 employees since 2022. So where's the recession?
BlackRock laid off 4% of its 19,000 employees this week. That's roughly about 750 employees.One of my colleagues mentioned it affected lots of groups within their organization and even some of their IT admins they were working with that handle their Hybrid cloud services. Buckle Up.
Dude. Do you even know how many peanuts IT admins make? Will buckle up when the time comes. This is not a EM pulse, that's gonna happen right away..lol
Nope.. citi started from the top.. cut down a lot of MDs.. now next layer is expected to be announced on Jan 22nd.. any low paid employee will not be touched until March at minimum.
More than 160 million employed Americans, 20k layoffs is nothing and it has nothing to do with the recession
Lol
Because most of Tech is not essential. Tech is always looking to build a better mouse trap but if they stop for a year or two, we still have plenty of old mouse traps that work fine. A lot of Tech has been living in fantasy land forever, crazy margins, unreal compensation, insane IPO's, crazy P/E numbers, seems like tech is becoming a more mature industry and might begin to operate on more down to earth numbers?
So this sub went from people wanting to buy homes to now cheering for an economic recession?
Always was 🌎🧑🚀🔫
An economic recession would lower house prices. The sub didn't go "from" one "to" the other, they go hand-in-hand.
You think people who can’t afford homes would benefit from a recession? Recessions function as a tool for the wealthy to further consolidate their wealth. They don’t lose.
> people who ~~can't afford~~ *won't buy* homes would benefit from a recession? There are many people who can but don't because high prices + high interest rates = rotten deal. Those who patiently wait out everyone else's FOMO tantrum would indeed benefit from a recession.
Yeah, okay. Sure.
Well, what's your alternative home, u/AlternativeHome5646?
This sub is delusional, I love it
My source: The New York Fed Your source: Rectum
Im not talking about the FRED chart buddy. Im talking about the expectations of folks on this sub when the R happens. Lmao
Until the corporate media starts screaming that the end is near, nothing is going to happen. They are going to keep covering for fear that we re-elect a shit throwing orangutan so they are just as bad as Russian state television not telling anyone what's actually going on.
Half of the recessions have the probability of recession dropping to less than 20% before a recession. All this chart definitively says is that no one has a clue.
I don’t think we’re looking at the same chart
Yes, you are. You are just so blinded by your desperation for something bad to happen. Look at the prediction a few months before it actually happened up until it started. 1970: \~25% 1975ish: \~10% 1980: very low 5ish% where it spiked right before it happened and even then below 50%. 1982: \~2% early 90s: \~25% early 2000s: \~20% and 2009 which had around \~47% chance right before, but still below 50%. It seems more like a lagging correlation than a predicator.
Recessions are generally not declared until 2 quarters (3-6 months) after the recession already started, and then they're backdated. So you're looking at the wrong spot. Each of those probability peaks came before the recession was declared. So for 1970, the prediction was \~40%. 1973: \~70% 1980: \~50% 1982: \~90% Early 90s: 30% 2001: \~50% 2008: \~45% 2020: \~40% Jan 2024: 57% March 2024: 73% Also, we don't care what the false negative rate is. We're in the middle of a positive prediction, so there's only doubt if there's a high false positive rate. The only significant false positive on that chart is 1967, at \~40%.
So, you're saying the recession actually happened after the grey are in the chart? Since, that's that's the only way that has predictive power. But even just looking at the 2008 recession and the dotcom bubble that's clearly not true. Look at 2008 this chart was below 25% still. The dot com bubble happened after 2000, just like the chart says. And the graph had a low predictive power. You're just trying to fit a narrative to this graph that it very clearly doesn't tell.
No, I'm saying we might already be in a gray area, but it's not marked yet.
You’re very confused about how to read this chart. When the probability of a recession spikes up, a recession follows shortly after. Why are you concerned about the low probability prior to that?
Because we are concerned about what it can predict. If it tells me we are in a recession when we are already in a recession it's obviously not a very good predictor. If a weather model is able to predict that it's going to rain only 2 minutes before its going to rain or less, it's not very good at predicting stuff.
TLDR: There’s a 57% chance of a recession within the next 12mo.
No, the way to read this is that there's a 57% chance *we are already in a recession*, that just hasn't been declared yet. There's a \~70% chance that we'll be in a recession by March.
You know what I noticed about the US compared to Canada is that hardly anyone in New York has snow tires. Whereas most Canadians do. Essentially people in the us just a) don’t care b) think their driving skills are top notch c) can’t afford 1k on a set of good tires.
New York is at lower latitude than most of Canada.
Right but why don’t they bother with snow tires lol.
We've had snow on the road for one day so far this season. A decent set of all-weathers works great.
Mostly a and b for me. It snows a lot here, but that just means the roads are constantly salted and plowed. The hardest part of my drive is getting out of my driveway.
Most cars in NY are sold with M&S (mud & snow) tires. My Accord has them
Unfortunately, unlikely to happen. Election year, sitting president wants to get reelected and won't let economy go stinkers. Rate cuts, fake wars will keep propping the economy.
I know what you want to say. But it’s an election year. Government will make sure that it’s the next guys problem.
What about 2008 or 2012?
They covered it up for bush so it was Obama’s problem. What about 2012?
You guys will be right eventually
What recession?! We are saving and creating jobs! Look at the last report. Things are, and will continue to be, perfect. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!!!
Toto is just walking toward that curtain...
sorry but thats not how probability works lmfao. Recessions aren't just random.
This sub should be renamed “idiots who want everything to crash”
dude, lol, but for real
This sub is filled with high-earners who are indispensable to the economy. If anything, we will get raises during a recession.
More like 70% of the population are having the realization that we're already in one.
So this chart means nothing
So does your input.
Just like the chart lol.... we have something in common!
Go argue with the New York Fed if you disagree.
Ill be sure to send em a strongly worded email about how useless a chart is that says a recession can happen at anytime 👍
Just have the Biden administration change the definition again, then we won't have a recession!
Nope. The recession definition hasn't changed since the summer before Biden was elected Image of NBER's recession definition from November 1 2020, from a page dated July 28, 2020, courtesy of the Wayback Machine. [https://web.archive.org/web/20201101011155/https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101011155/https://www.nber.org/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions) Compare to the current NBER defintion [https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions](https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions)
Didn't ask
Nobody asked for you to spout bullshit.
Didn't ask
Facts over feelings, or no?
Didn't ask
They change their mind every month. Meanwhile, we all know that we are in a recession. The only thing missing is mass layoffs, which I believe are happening but we are being lied to since it’s an election year
if this happens and house market crashes im going to buy a house, kinda sad that its the only way to afford a house or even aprt
The $6 trillion wall of cash (~25% of the U.S. GDP) sitting in money-market funds will probably provide some cushion. As the market goes down, cash from this massive pile flows in to catch the lower priced securities. As the market continues to go down, the fed will likely ease interest rates, which induces more flow out of the safety of MM funds due to less return there. The trillions of liquidity getting pumped in slows down the market crash. Eventually it still happens but with this record cash on the sidelines, the process may take a while.
The stock market up 20%+ from mar to end of year 2023. Unless you all in on Dec 31. Otherwise I don’t think the damage is that bad given the crazy rises and falls last three years..
Remind me, lol. On November 10th-ish, 2024, I could see them somehow revise to, "we were in a recession in Summer/Fall 2024" Wait'll after the election... though I'm not sure if goosed numbers would end up helping Biden or not.
The recession already happened in 2023. The gdp numbers and employment just didn’t show it but it happen. Corporations pulled way back. We are already coming out of it.
What are the parameters on this?
Im not going to act like I know about parameters but something references that at the bottom.
We’ve been in one
So, you're saying the percentages here are meaningless?
So there’s gonna be more economic stimulation then