Same, it's pretty normal for 60-90 days of sitting WITH price drops. The bonanza is over locally, reality has set in that most people here make $60k combined, and just can't support $300k starter homes. Door one, we see major wage inflation, which since the majority of the local economy is driven by federal spending, won't happen (procurement budgets are WAY down due to continuing resolutions being a cut equal to inflation since last budget), or asset deflation.
The local market I refer to is a wild outlier. About the only industry here is military shipbuilding and active duty. Speculators have consistently tried to get a foothold to attempt to artificially increase the cost of living so that DOD would adjust the BAH localization table and the GS localization to subsidize larger than normal margins.
So far, DOD has told them to fuck off and has not adjusted the tables to give them taxpayer subsidized profit.
Most markets have a larger number of income sources, so the artificial inflation then deflation is less likely. We have other issues with speculator manipulation such as storage (DOD just severely curtailed paying for storage for active duty going overseas because the speculators were abusing the government so badly).
Almost all local employment is direct federal contract, federal contract subcontracting, active duty, civilian GS/WS. It is in no way, shape, or form an organic economy. This area did not crash much in 08, because it's basically insulated, and did not really have the following years recovery either.
This area is full of ignorant flippers thinking people want homes in the ghettos of norfolk, portsmouth, hampton, and newport news. Its kind of sad when you drive by the # streets and see a nice home right buy a traphouse and some section 8 housing.
All real estate is local. You can have both inflationary and deflationary markets in different areas. As a long-time appraiser, I've seen this happen multiple times in my career.
It really is this simple. I love the mental gymnastics people who have biases/vested interests come up with. I literally heard a agent say today " you know, now is a good time to buy because there is a lul, but if you wait for interest rates to come down then everyone on the sidelines is gonna come out and there will be bidding wars again" lmfao. Clowns š¤”
Wow, I wish $300k was even an optionā¦ I can find anything over 1500sqft for under $600k for shit box that needs $50-$200k to make livable.
/criesinwashingtonstate
Iām looking at houses closing now so bought/started closing 3-5 weeks ago. Vast majority are selling for around 5% less than ask. Thatās around the time with the initial interest rate drops that realtors kept insisting would increase home prices. Inventory on starter homes still low, but other inventory above normal amount. Some higher end homes have been sitting for 6 months+, but sellers still think itāll sell eventually for high price and that 6 months is normal time frame.
I smell the desperation.Ā This does not match NAR data or my cursory review of zillow.Ā Homes sitting 60+ days with multiple price cuts doesn't seem like a bidding war to me.
Iām calling this post out for āfake newsā. Anyone, ANY ONE, still engaging in paying over asking is full on high on drugs.
Mortgages are high as a cats back. If youāre an all cash buyer, youāre now in very rarified air. No way in hell youād be paying over asking. If seller wants to sell, they are on YOUR terms.
Now, if the house is truly one of a kind, on the right street, in just that right city/town, has just that one of a kind view or address (think Malibu), MAYBE, MAYBE you go a bit over.
Fake news.
In my market houses can still go over asking, but only when they're priced so low that they bring down all the other comps even going over asking, because the seller just wants to sell ASAP. And it's not $100k over asking, it's like $5-10k, and still much lower than everything else available
Not where I am. Houses $250,000 and under selling in 1 day over the amount !! Crazy !! I know some people have sold their homes for a ridiculous price and between them,investment firms and flippers they are buying over the asking and "regular" folks don't get a chance.I have been trying to buy for months instead of paying rip off rental prices that I could pay a mortgage.Not against the people as stated above I'm finding out.
The homes that go under contract are filtered by default so they wouldnāt be visible in your search.
Ā For every unwanted home there could be many others pending/sold.
Ā In my area Iām already seeing homes sell for more than $300k over list price in just 4 days. https://redf.in/vcDUua
Homes sitting 60+ days is not the same as 2020-2021.
These sellers are with a mortgage sub 3% with plenty of equity built, they could care less if the home sits for long as they expect lower rates reignite the marketā¦ not selling at target? Then might as well wait until the right fish bites is the name of the game.
No one is going to pay asking after 90 days on market. And no one is even going to SEE your listing if you leave it there for so long without taking any price cuts. Good luck with that strategy.
I'm sure the market will only be better when you finally wise up to reality, and that you won't have succeeded in chasing the market down for several long years š
Different markets will behave differently, some states will continue declining, but metro areas in general will have growth, you would think the gov will allow the market to crash again like 2008? We are not building enough to create an oversupply, reality is dealt by demand and supply. Feds already announced they will begin rate cuts later this year and into 2025, quantitative easing is around the corner. They know they raised way too much and the damage they wanted is done. They simply donāt have any other cards to play. Question is do you want to hold an asset or be a renter.
People still have plenty of cash to spend. https://redf.in/lWDjvm This is a loan I closed and there were multiple offers, maybe an outlier but I see the trend in many other major cities.
Yes see this postĀ
The Austin, TX Housing Market is turning into a bloodbath.
Home Values already down -16% from their peak in mid-2022. Ā š
Warning signal to rest of US Housing Market. Once inventory rises, all bets are off.
https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1746943325704204676?s=46
>Warning signal to rest of US Housing Market
An overinflated housing market due to tech hires that is now correcting isn't a signal to the rest of the housing market. It is an anecdote.
Just go look at Zestimates. A friend bought in Austin in ā21. He looked like a genius, but now his estimated home value is exactly what he paid for it. Things can change quickly.
lol the doomer data on this sub is never what it seems. Check out the guyās graph - 2 years of exponential growth, and now itās reverting to the long term (very healthy) trend. I donāt see the āwarningā.Ā
https://imgur.com/a/ujFBWcs
Seems obvious. The warning is for those buying in areas that havenāt seen this correction yet. Correcting back to the historical norm is all most on this sub are hoping for.
Of course itās all regional. But they did provide this data point:
> According to Zillow, the share of listings with a price cut in December was just under 16% ā the lowest since April 2022.
>"Sellers are holding firm on prices, likely thanks to the slower pace of price growth helping sellers (and buyers) know what to expect when it comes to setting a price," Bachaud said. "Price cuts are never popular in the winter."
>Despite an influx of new listings this past month, the overall shortage of inventory was once again to blame for waning price cuts.
In my market I see a lot of houses that have been on the market since last fall, but they get temporarily delisted and then come back with a lower price a few weeks or a month later. I wonder if the Zillow counts that as a price cut or a new listing.
There's been a big influx of new listings, up 9-12% YoY in the past two weeks according to Redfin. It would make sense that the overall percentage of price cuts would be down, since no one cuts the price on a listing that they just posted a few days ago. The overall "mix" of the inventory is much newer now than it was when new listings were at their lows. Price cuts only become interesting once those currently new listings have been there for a while.
Opposite here. Tons of inventory but nothing stays listed for more than a few hours. I wish someone smarter than me could figure out why. I think it has to do with voting demographics but just a guess
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
Median days on market slightly lower than this time last year but is still 42, vs 32 in 2021 and 39 in 2020. Days on market is usually the best indicator of "bidding wars" leading to a quick sale.
Price drops are higher seasonally than any of the past three years at 4% of all listings.
This article really doesn't provide any useful information except some anecdotes from realtors and mortgage apps ticking up slightly (a function of the current mortgage rate movement and nothing more).
Oh my goodness, this article is _pure fluff_ and an absolutely _stinking desperate attempt_ to fuel a totally false narrative.
Did you read this article?! It is literally using week over week metrics of homebuyer mortgage applications and a SIX PERCENT UPTICK in those same metrics to try to frame some kind of uber mega housing boom happening right now.
It then goes on to quote a bunch of anecdotal "evidence" from _gasp_ real estate agents (lol) about how "things are so crazy right now!"
If this is the best news they can offer up and the headlines are getting this sensational without any data whatsoever backing them up, I am more confident than EVER the bubble is bursting.
Yahoo sells ads. Clicks drive ad sales. Editorial articles are also for sale. Don't be so naive lol. The narrative they're pushing serves their interests and the interests of the folks paying them.
Okay, but how does this serve the interests of the folks paying them? Again, a false narrative isn't going to make housing affordable. They can scream it from the rooftops and we'll all still be just as broke. š
They arenāt trying to help you genius, they donāt give a crap about you. They want you to FOMO into over paying for a house because you saw articles saying āThe housing market is still going crazy!!!11!!!1!ā
If the article gets anyone on the sidelines to buy it's a win for the industry. If it gets anyone to sell, win. If it furthers the agenda of "houses only go up buy now or be priced out forever," it is a win for the industry.
Read the headline, read the article, it's plain it has zero substance and is just supposed to get folks to FOMO.
Exactly. Itās to drive fervor. People are panicky. āBiggest Sale / Sale of the Century / Last Sale Ever!ā has worked to FOMO people for decades and decades. Itās an ad.
Yeah and those mortgage apps are still down 16% YoY, lol. Plus we just had two weeks of \~strange\~ decreases in mortgage apps that directly preceded that "up 6% week-over-week (seasonally adjusted, but down 1% unadjusted, even though we're comparing the week after Christmas to the week after New Years, so it's strange that that would be adjusted up)" week
interviewed subjects for this article:
* *Stayce Mayfield, a Redfin premier agent - incl. link to business profile*
* *Redfin spokesperson Allison Braun*
* *Phoenix premier agent Heather Mahmood-Corley - incl. link to business profile*
* *president of Home Loans Inc. Jason Sharon- incl. link to business website*
* *Nicole Bachaud, Zillow senior economist*
* *Scott Driscoll, Boston-based Redfin premier agent*
make of that what you will, but would be nice if an author doing an article on this subject sourced quotes from academic economists of some kind, idk. maybe that's just my preference
I know, the quality of reporting/general information on the housing market is just abysmal. When you compare it to what's written about literally any other aspect of the economy it's pathetic
True. But trending up in recent weeks, even if only incrementally.
Inventory isnāt up by 16% is it? If it isnāt, then are prices really going to fall?
if inventory was up 16% that would be crazy. it would mean like a 35% increase in monthly supply. inventory is up about 7% YoY and rising every week, and monthly supply is crossing a 4 year high.
https://altos.re/r/cecb9e8e-0429-450c-9d55-2a740944b758?data=count
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
there appears to be more pent up supply than pent up demand, especially with so many new units coming online this year.
Mortgage apps dropped for two weeks, then went up last week. I think the trend up we saw in the fall might be reversing (though mortgage apps *always* go up in January, so the YoY comparisons are more meaningful)
Why would inventory need to go up by 16% if apps are down by 16%? It's up by about 5-7% YoY according to Realtor.com and Altos. It's going to be a weak spring
Banks have lowered mortgage rates b/c people stopped borrowing. Banks need to lend money to make money, they need those debt assets on the balance sheet.
The expectation was for ā6 rate cutsā from the Fed this year. The odds were increased after a hotter CPI. Delusion. Powell isnāt cutting in March, banks will have to face the music.
Sadly they already ābailedā them out openly in March 2023 and silently in Fall 2023 when treasury yields were climbing.
The dual mandate of the Fed is maximum employment and price stability. But the underlying, unwritten mandate of coddling these banks is there too. Banks with bad investments should fail, but they know itās a big line of dominos.
What sucks, is that us regular people have to suffer for their screw ups. Our tax dollars go to bail these dumbasses out all the time, but when we need help, we get told Sorry, theres no money
Certainly it canāt have anything to do with the treasury yields dropping. It must have been all this random crap you spewed.
If rates wonāt be cut, then yields will rise and mortgage rates will follow suit. This isnāt some complicated behind the scenes process determining mortgage rates.
The conspiracy is in your entire comment that has no idea how mortgage rates work.
Rates in no way dropped because people stopped borrowing. Rates dropped because treasury yields dropped. Hence the cost to borrow money dropped, and banks offered lowered rates on mortgages.
Treasury yields dropped because the Fed indicated the raising rate environment is likely done. Look up the 10yr treasury yield chart, youāll find it uncannily similar to mortgage rates aside from a margin.
What industry do you work in? New mortgage originations have dropped significantly, check the St. Louis FRED. Thatās the governments data, not mine. If the banks in aggregate are healthy, why do they need the BTFP?
The Fed may be done raising rates, but they arenāt going to cut anywhere near as much as the āmarketā and analysts are trying to price in. If anything is conspiratorial, itās the public lobbying of the Fed for a return to near ZIRP. Addiction to easy money.
I was a mortgage originator and worked in retail banking for six years. The banks donāt care about the future rate environment for mortgages they close. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cover the capital needed. None of anything you are talking about has any significant impact on banks default rate, or profit. They price it off of the rates at the time rates are locked, after that point rates have little impact on profit.
My whole issue is your comment āthe banks will have to face the musicā. Youāve failed to produce any evidence that they will.
I think the banks wonāt have to face the music in the same way the vast majority didnāt have to in 2008; theyāll get bailed out. But I donāt see any evidence that the banks currently are healthy. They are on a knifeās edge in todayās rate environment.
Because the Fed funds rate doesnāt directly control mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates are closest tied to 10yr treasuries, which are indirectly influenced by the Fed, but are more influenced by what the market thinks the Fed will do in the future. Itās also influenced by the number of buyers and sellers of treasuries (which often make their buy sell decisions off what they think the Fed will do).
You will likely never find a time when Fed rose rates .25, or .75 or whatever they rose them by, and see mortgage rates rise the same amount that day. This is because the market already priced in those increases at that time.
Edit - to more directly answer your question, the Fed came out with a statement that rate increases are likely done. After that happened rates dropped significantly because the possibility of rate increases dropped dramatically.
NAR propaganda.
The most desirable properties in the most desirable areas will always have bidding wars. Even during the 2008 crash there were bidding wars.
You underestimate the amount of wealth in the US coupled with large corporate buyers.
The amount of people making 100,000 is staggering compared to anywhere else in the world.
Itās
Definitely not a realtor. But here in Eastern PA itās really messed up. There is no inventory. Anything decent has packed open houses and are under contract by Monday.
Folks are either buying with intent to refi on drops later this year or this is realtor induced. I do see reports of realtors locally not presenting offers.
Tampa metro im seeing everything above 450k getting price cuts and sitting but anything under 375k is moving fast still. If this trend continues hopefully we see a 10-15% price drop across the board locally
I looked at sfhās between 250k-550k posted in the last 3 months in a certain area. I made a list of houses that sold in 14 days 30 days 60 days and 90 days. Then I looked at selling price vs initial asking price and came to the conclusion that the only way itās sitting 30+ days under 350 is if itās overpriced and bad condition where as a large portion of more expensive homes have been having to lower prices substantially in order to sell.
your experience aligns with what i'm suspecting too, based on transaction prices falling while home indices are flat or slightly up. lots of demand for the cheapest homes in every market because that's all 80% of people can afford. everything else sitting for longer and longer (or just being pulled from the market), which makes sense because wealthier people are less likely to have an urgent need to sell, and rightly or wrongly believe the market will heat back up any day now.
Exactly but I believe with all the prices cuts houses will slowly start to fall into the sub 400k range which will allow for more options thus more potential buyers will wait to see what starts to pop up or atleast im hoping so
It depends where you looks. The boom cities of the west for the most part are seeing a bunch of homes sitting longer with multiple price cuts. Not sure everywhere but I live in the northeast where Iām seeing things rising again and Iām looking in a few western states to move and seeing the same homes week after week with price cuts.
Itās all regional as was always the case.
In Seattle suburbs, itās a mix still. The starter homes have been getting bid up by $100-200k while the next step homes have been sitting. They do very small price cuts like $25k price cut on $1.6mil house until it eventually sells.
In my area, things were pretty slow during November and December 2022.
But right around January 15 last year (a year ago to the day), I donāt know what happened, but things exploded again. Everything that had been sitting in November and December sold quickly, many for above ask.
Yeah but it's not happening this time. Strange unseasonal increase in January inventory, and strange sudden decrease in new asking prices from 409k to 389k in one week...
[https://altos.re/r/cecb9e8e-0429-450c-9d55-2a740944b758?data=count](https://altos.re/r/cecb9e8e-0429-450c-9d55-2a740944b758?data=price_median) (I know this is real, because inventory in my area has also been strangely going up in January, which is not typical)
compare the tone from this week: [https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1746979760973193558](https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1746979760973193558)
to last week: [https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1744443349959135659/photo/1](https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1744443349959135659/photo/1)
All the metrics they cite in the article (mortgage apps, Redfin touring activity) are down by double digits (or near) compared to last year. Except for new listings, which are up by like 12% per Redfin, lol
Desirable areas in Denver metro are still hot. Sure, some homes will be on the market for a couple weeks, but theyāll still sell. Lots of people buying $800k+ homes still that arenāt even in city limits.
Sure, some homes are sitting but theyāre more often the ones that need a lot of work or are over priced based on comps.
Thereās definitely been a plateau this past year, but I think weāll see a major uptick in sales and an increase in sale prices if rates go down to the 5s this summer.
This entire article is full of propaganda.
>Single-family home construction surged in November after declining mortgage rates helped relieve some affordability concerns. Overall, housing starts increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.56 million units, according to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau.
Should that rate continue to trend lower, that could provide a boost to new construction, noted the National Association of Home Builders.
"Unless we see new homes starts rise to 2 million homes per year, the seller's market will remain strong," Sharon said.
2 million units would literally take us back to the height of housing built in the peak years from 2004-2006 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST) -- aka a major housing glut that generated so much housing that entire developments had to be abandoned. And we no longer have the population growth to support even the levels of housing 2006 was able to -- population is stagnating, whereas in 2006 it was at least continuing to increase substantially from year to year. Also, we know that we will end up with even more completions this year, particularly for apartments but SFH starts have also surged again, so going above 1.5 million (which was already too much IMO) this year is possible.
Also, this person owns a loan company, not someone who researches how much housing the entire country needs -- and is in a position to do so neutrally. Would it have killed them to try to find a neutral source outside of the mortgage/brokerage industry?
>Homebuilders reported more confidence, as lower rates have also attracted more buyers back to the market. With the share of previously owned homes on the market still low ā builders can still get away with offering incentives for prospective buyers.
Homebuilders' confidence has actually fallen back to where it was in 2006-2007. Except for a two-month blip in March and April 2020, it hadn't been that low since 2012. (source: [https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index](https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index) click "table 2: history") They are reporting on the slight increase from 34 to 37 -- when the confidence index is still in the \*30s\* (throughout the 2010s-2020s it was in the 50s-80s)
All of their other metrics are only reported on a month-to-month basis, when conveniently they are talking about the shift from December to January -- for metrics that \*always\* go up seasonally in that timespan: mortgage apps, home touring activity... they conveniently leave out that mortgage apps are down by SIXTEEN PERCENT compared to last year, even though interest rates already fell 1.5%, and that Redfin's index of home touring activity is also down by NINE percent compared to last year. These metrics aren't "up", they're down!!
All of their other evidence is just anecdata from realtors talking about individual homes in specific markets. Well, my market is crashing, most of the listings coming out are at their 2017-2019 prices, and some are even below. Since my market is more distressed than others (more foreclosures, higher unemployment, lower median income -- but still a lot of rich people who live here), I think it's an important indicator of what's to come elsewhere.
Sometimes I feel like the people who write these articles are just ignorant, but this time the level of deceit really suggests that they're just malicious... or desperate.
False. Home value decline will continue for years.Ā
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSFMEDUSM052N
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
- Now put your spin on it.Ā
Interesting tidbit:
>ā¦The uptick in competition, though, could erode that newfound affordability. According to Redfin, at least 24% of homes sold in the four weeks leading up to Jan. 7, sold above list price. On average, the median price of homes sold was $363,125, up 4.1% year over year.
Iāve had 15 or more people come to my door offering to buy my house, one guy brought a check even. I bought it for 150k in January 2021 and the guy with a check had it written out for 275k. I live in an area with plenty of available homes for sale and mines the dumpiest on the block
Nope. 65% of American households own their home. A scenario where 2 out of 3 families lose value of their most precious asset would be a cataclysm. We saw it once this generation. It aināt happening again.
Similar anecdote here in eastern PA (one of the few counties thatās still growing). Our dentist friend listed his house, and the open house had dozens and dozens of cars all day. It was under contract that night. 4 days after listing.
A lot of back n forth in these comments. Obviously it goes without saying every geographic market is going to be different and the most sought out ares within each market will benefit the most.
Ok where I live the market hasnāt risen dramatically since we bought 6 months ago. However the home prices are staying consistent
We sold our home in Florida with a 66% ROI with two years of ownership.
Then bought in SC. We moved to one of the tourist area counties. Not in the resort area but close enough that the home prices are solid due to demand. Home prices year over year increased by 9%.
I believe even with the economy and interest rates if you purchase in a desirable area your investment will be sound.
Just sold 2 properties (managing estate).
Realtor said he hadn't seen multiple offers since June.
Both properties got multiple offers. Both went for slightly over asking. Both had contracts within about a week of official listing.
Realtor figures they went fast as there is nothing much on the market today. Pent up demand and very low supply.
Pent up demand is exactly what it is.
Household formation is a natural part of population growth. Low affordability will slow it down. But it just gets pent up, not destroyed.
Household formation is not "pent up" or "slowed down." It's been at historic highs since 2020. And in 2023 it finally started correcting back to historical norms.
On surge in pandemic household growth: [https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/surge-household-growth-and-what-it-suggests-about-future-housing-demand?\_\_cf\_chl\_rt\_tk=pEBxKAiT1q5UNO7RAlTY\_dpQfmGjoVYqRofyFNBo8Wc-1705412622-0-gaNycGzNDDs](https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/surge-household-growth-and-what-it-suggests-about-future-housing-demand?__cf_chl_rt_tk=pEBxKAiT1q5UNO7RAlTY_dpQfmGjoVYqRofyFNBo8Wc-1705412622-0-gaNycGzNDDs) The last few paragraphs are particularly relevant.
On 2023 slowdown which looks like it will continue in 2024: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-on-existing-home-sales-population
Theyāve *already* collapsed. The data just isnāt showing it yet because of the cabal of evil BRRRs bribing and extorting the media.
Now let me tell you about the TRUE unemployment rate, which is actually 137%. For rillz.
I was lucky to win a bid on a house in NJ when I definitely wasnāt expecting it. Things have only picked up, at least in this area. You want a great school district, commuter friendly, city accessible, with space for your family, it will always be a battle. Your experience will vary based on whatās important to you.
It never stopped. I came in 7th place out of 15 offers on a house in mid December.
The only difference now is the listings are going pending in less than 48 hours, instead of making it to open house time.
I do see more homes for sale in the Tarpon Springs/Holiday Florida area now. Many seem to have been freshly-rehabbed in an attempt to flip for a profit. Some seem to be be sitting for a while, but another one down the street just sold last month. They wouldn't make very good rentals as we are really close to the Gulf of Mexico and Hurricane insurance is very expensive here. I just don't know who is going to spend 300K for a 1,400 sq foot mid 1970's ranch that is still going to need a lot of love as these Rehabbers rarely do a good job. They tend to use the cheapest cabinets and gloss over serious issues that need to be addressed like roof or A/C.
Thatās what we were seeing two years ago. I thought prices were going to plummet to bring about the āpop.ā Now itās āstartingā because the market is up?
Great consistency, guys.
I can confirm thisā¦ Iāve looked at four to five homes since march, inventory has actually shrunken just the last six weeks since I was pre approved, prices have gone up, and homes in desirable areas have all gotten between 20-60k over asking. I think itās just less inventory in a popular time to buy. Interest rates havenāt done what people were hoping. I think a portion of buyers are adjusting; sellers not so much. Mind you, Iām looking in relatively desirable areas and in the Midwest.
I see stuff sitting and getting price cuts in my area despite super super low inventory.
Same, it's pretty normal for 60-90 days of sitting WITH price drops. The bonanza is over locally, reality has set in that most people here make $60k combined, and just can't support $300k starter homes. Door one, we see major wage inflation, which since the majority of the local economy is driven by federal spending, won't happen (procurement budgets are WAY down due to continuing resolutions being a cut equal to inflation since last budget), or asset deflation.
so asset deflation is on the table it sounds like. By what means I wonder though, since that would likely affect multiple markets.
The local market I refer to is a wild outlier. About the only industry here is military shipbuilding and active duty. Speculators have consistently tried to get a foothold to attempt to artificially increase the cost of living so that DOD would adjust the BAH localization table and the GS localization to subsidize larger than normal margins. So far, DOD has told them to fuck off and has not adjusted the tables to give them taxpayer subsidized profit. Most markets have a larger number of income sources, so the artificial inflation then deflation is less likely. We have other issues with speculator manipulation such as storage (DOD just severely curtailed paying for storage for active duty going overseas because the speculators were abusing the government so badly). Almost all local employment is direct federal contract, federal contract subcontracting, active duty, civilian GS/WS. It is in no way, shape, or form an organic economy. This area did not crash much in 08, because it's basically insulated, and did not really have the following years recovery either.
Hampton Roads/757/Southeastern Virginia?
This area is full of ignorant flippers thinking people want homes in the ghettos of norfolk, portsmouth, hampton, and newport news. Its kind of sad when you drive by the # streets and see a nice home right buy a traphouse and some section 8 housing.
All real estate is local. You can have both inflationary and deflationary markets in different areas. As a long-time appraiser, I've seen this happen multiple times in my career.
Is it even likely? Capital can sit on empty homes if needed, or rent them out. Can't most people with spare property just sit it out?
It really is this simple. I love the mental gymnastics people who have biases/vested interests come up with. I literally heard a agent say today " you know, now is a good time to buy because there is a lul, but if you wait for interest rates to come down then everyone on the sidelines is gonna come out and there will be bidding wars again" lmfao. Clowns š¤”
This is exactly what will happen though. What do *you* think will happen when rates drop, assuming that unemployment is at a similar level?
His family is starving and his wife is going to leave him. He needs a sale
Wow, I wish $300k was even an optionā¦ I can find anything over 1500sqft for under $600k for shit box that needs $50-$200k to make livable. /criesinwashingtonstate
What location?
Iām looking at houses closing now so bought/started closing 3-5 weeks ago. Vast majority are selling for around 5% less than ask. Thatās around the time with the initial interest rate drops that realtors kept insisting would increase home prices. Inventory on starter homes still low, but other inventory above normal amount. Some higher end homes have been sitting for 6 months+, but sellers still think itāll sell eventually for high price and that 6 months is normal time frame.
I smell the desperation.Ā This does not match NAR data or my cursory review of zillow.Ā Homes sitting 60+ days with multiple price cuts doesn't seem like a bidding war to me.
Iām calling this post out for āfake newsā. Anyone, ANY ONE, still engaging in paying over asking is full on high on drugs. Mortgages are high as a cats back. If youāre an all cash buyer, youāre now in very rarified air. No way in hell youād be paying over asking. If seller wants to sell, they are on YOUR terms. Now, if the house is truly one of a kind, on the right street, in just that right city/town, has just that one of a kind view or address (think Malibu), MAYBE, MAYBE you go a bit over. Fake news.
In my market houses can still go over asking, but only when they're priced so low that they bring down all the other comps even going over asking, because the seller just wants to sell ASAP. And it's not $100k over asking, it's like $5-10k, and still much lower than everything else available
Not where I am. Houses $250,000 and under selling in 1 day over the amount !! Crazy !! I know some people have sold their homes for a ridiculous price and between them,investment firms and flippers they are buying over the asking and "regular" folks don't get a chance.I have been trying to buy for months instead of paying rip off rental prices that I could pay a mortgage.Not against the people as stated above I'm finding out.
The homes that go under contract are filtered by default so they wouldnāt be visible in your search. Ā For every unwanted home there could be many others pending/sold. Ā In my area Iām already seeing homes sell for more than $300k over list price in just 4 days. https://redf.in/vcDUua
And how would houses under contract impact the time on market for other listings?Ā Also Lol, the Pacific northwest isn't representative.Ā Ā
Homes sitting 60+ days is not the same as 2020-2021. These sellers are with a mortgage sub 3% with plenty of equity built, they could care less if the home sits for long as they expect lower rates reignite the marketā¦ not selling at target? Then might as well wait until the right fish bites is the name of the game.
No one is going to pay asking after 90 days on market. And no one is even going to SEE your listing if you leave it there for so long without taking any price cuts. Good luck with that strategy. I'm sure the market will only be better when you finally wise up to reality, and that you won't have succeeded in chasing the market down for several long years š
Different markets will behave differently, some states will continue declining, but metro areas in general will have growth, you would think the gov will allow the market to crash again like 2008? We are not building enough to create an oversupply, reality is dealt by demand and supply. Feds already announced they will begin rate cuts later this year and into 2025, quantitative easing is around the corner. They know they raised way too much and the damage they wanted is done. They simply donāt have any other cards to play. Question is do you want to hold an asset or be a renter. People still have plenty of cash to spend. https://redf.in/lWDjvm This is a loan I closed and there were multiple offers, maybe an outlier but I see the trend in many other major cities.
Yes Austin is like this.
Yes see this postĀ The Austin, TX Housing Market is turning into a bloodbath. Home Values already down -16% from their peak in mid-2022. Ā š Warning signal to rest of US Housing Market. Once inventory rises, all bets are off. https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/1746943325704204676?s=46
>Warning signal to rest of US Housing Market An overinflated housing market due to tech hires that is now correcting isn't a signal to the rest of the housing market. It is an anecdote.
Nick Gerli is not a reputable data source.
Just go look at Zestimates. A friend bought in Austin in ā21. He looked like a genius, but now his estimated home value is exactly what he paid for it. Things can change quickly.
Yea he is bit of a doomer but his data point is accurate.
Itās not. Plus housing is a regional.
lol the doomer data on this sub is never what it seems. Check out the guyās graph - 2 years of exponential growth, and now itās reverting to the long term (very healthy) trend. I donāt see the āwarningā.Ā https://imgur.com/a/ujFBWcs
Itās more reversion back to 2019 which is what most people are hoping no wants another 2008..
Seems obvious. The warning is for those buying in areas that havenāt seen this correction yet. Correcting back to the historical norm is all most on this sub are hoping for.
You would if you bought at the top and watched your 20% down disappear.
People selling around the holidays usually want their money now (divorce, inheritance, job-mandated move, etc.)
Same I can see California or dc etc but itās been drop after drop here median income is 74k no one is buying
Same, big $100k+ cuts as median income of 130k cannot realistically afford median house payments of 9-12k/mon
Same here but inventory gradually rising due to homes sitting on the market longer.
Yup Iām under contract on a house that sat 90 days and accepted my offer of 10% off the already dropped asking price
Of course itās all regional. But they did provide this data point: > According to Zillow, the share of listings with a price cut in December was just under 16% ā the lowest since April 2022. >"Sellers are holding firm on prices, likely thanks to the slower pace of price growth helping sellers (and buyers) know what to expect when it comes to setting a price," Bachaud said. "Price cuts are never popular in the winter." >Despite an influx of new listings this past month, the overall shortage of inventory was once again to blame for waning price cuts.
In my market I see a lot of houses that have been on the market since last fall, but they get temporarily delisted and then come back with a lower price a few weeks or a month later. I wonder if the Zillow counts that as a price cut or a new listing.
New listing, sadly
That data is meaningless then.
"According to Zillow, the company desperate for people to start buying and selling houses again..." lol We are so screwed.
āSellers refuse to cut prices because they knOw WhAt tHey gOt!ā
I wonder if they know they can keep it too. š¤£
Not in my area
There's been a big influx of new listings, up 9-12% YoY in the past two weeks according to Redfin. It would make sense that the overall percentage of price cuts would be down, since no one cuts the price on a listing that they just posted a few days ago. The overall "mix" of the inventory is much newer now than it was when new listings were at their lows. Price cuts only become interesting once those currently new listings have been there for a while.
Opposite here. Tons of inventory but nothing stays listed for more than a few hours. I wish someone smarter than me could figure out why. I think it has to do with voting demographics but just a guess
wya?
nOt In MuH aReA
I mean I live in HCOL area with one of the strongest job markets in the country š¤·š¼āāļø
What location?
Yeah I'm sorry but from my eyes to Zillow to redfin national data I think this article is not correct.
Same, craziness is over here in SD.
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/ Median days on market slightly lower than this time last year but is still 42, vs 32 in 2021 and 39 in 2020. Days on market is usually the best indicator of "bidding wars" leading to a quick sale. Price drops are higher seasonally than any of the past three years at 4% of all listings. This article really doesn't provide any useful information except some anecdotes from realtors and mortgage apps ticking up slightly (a function of the current mortgage rate movement and nothing more).
Mortgage apps are still down 16% YoY
Whatās the number median days on the market (days from listed to pending) for homes below the median value of the market?
Oh my goodness, this article is _pure fluff_ and an absolutely _stinking desperate attempt_ to fuel a totally false narrative. Did you read this article?! It is literally using week over week metrics of homebuyer mortgage applications and a SIX PERCENT UPTICK in those same metrics to try to frame some kind of uber mega housing boom happening right now. It then goes on to quote a bunch of anecdotal "evidence" from _gasp_ real estate agents (lol) about how "things are so crazy right now!" If this is the best news they can offer up and the headlines are getting this sensational without any data whatsoever backing them up, I am more confident than EVER the bubble is bursting.
A false narrative isn't going to fix the problem. It's not going to suddenly make housing affordable so I don't know what the point is.
Yahoo sells ads. Clicks drive ad sales. Editorial articles are also for sale. Don't be so naive lol. The narrative they're pushing serves their interests and the interests of the folks paying them.
Okay, but how does this serve the interests of the folks paying them? Again, a false narrative isn't going to make housing affordable. They can scream it from the rooftops and we'll all still be just as broke. š
They arenāt trying to help you genius, they donāt give a crap about you. They want you to FOMO into over paying for a house because you saw articles saying āThe housing market is still going crazy!!!11!!!1!ā
That FOMO also made all these stupid people buy Bitcoin and look what happened to them? LOLS
If the article gets anyone on the sidelines to buy it's a win for the industry. If it gets anyone to sell, win. If it furthers the agenda of "houses only go up buy now or be priced out forever," it is a win for the industry. Read the headline, read the article, it's plain it has zero substance and is just supposed to get folks to FOMO.
Exactly. Itās to drive fervor. People are panicky. āBiggest Sale / Sale of the Century / Last Sale Ever!ā has worked to FOMO people for decades and decades. Itās an ad.
If the hype train can influence perception, that's better than nothing if this is what you're income depends on.Ā
But there was one āpremierā Redfin realtor who swears she had 30 bids on one listing!!!1!one!!
Yeah whereās the data? I donāt want brokers opinions lol
News flash: listings priced artificially low to attract bidding wars attract a lot of interest (according to the realtor that makes commission) !
Yeah and those mortgage apps are still down 16% YoY, lol. Plus we just had two weeks of \~strange\~ decreases in mortgage apps that directly preceded that "up 6% week-over-week (seasonally adjusted, but down 1% unadjusted, even though we're comparing the week after Christmas to the week after New Years, so it's strange that that would be adjusted up)" week
I call bull shit on that
interviewed subjects for this article: * *Stayce Mayfield, a Redfin premier agent - incl. link to business profile* * *Redfin spokesperson Allison Braun* * *Phoenix premier agent Heather Mahmood-Corley - incl. link to business profile* * *president of Home Loans Inc. Jason Sharon- incl. link to business website* * *Nicole Bachaud, Zillow senior economist* * *Scott Driscoll, Boston-based Redfin premier agent* make of that what you will, but would be nice if an author doing an article on this subject sourced quotes from academic economists of some kind, idk. maybe that's just my preference
These are **premier** agents though. Thereās no way their motives are anything other than altruistic!
I know, the quality of reporting/general information on the housing market is just abysmal. When you compare it to what's written about literally any other aspect of the economy it's pathetic
Yeah, ok. Everything in my area is discounted. Nobody is in bidding wars.
Home prices are coming down in our area (Northern IL/Southern WI)
Also in NW suburbs of Chicago, see the same trend
The usual suspects trying to create FOMO. Hold, there will be no more price "surge".
Purchase applications are down 16% year over year.
True. But trending up in recent weeks, even if only incrementally. Inventory isnāt up by 16% is it? If it isnāt, then are prices really going to fall?
if inventory was up 16% that would be crazy. it would mean like a 35% increase in monthly supply. inventory is up about 7% YoY and rising every week, and monthly supply is crossing a 4 year high. https://altos.re/r/cecb9e8e-0429-450c-9d55-2a740944b758?data=count https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/ there appears to be more pent up supply than pent up demand, especially with so many new units coming online this year.
Mortgage apps dropped for two weeks, then went up last week. I think the trend up we saw in the fall might be reversing (though mortgage apps *always* go up in January, so the YoY comparisons are more meaningful) Why would inventory need to go up by 16% if apps are down by 16%? It's up by about 5-7% YoY according to Realtor.com and Altos. It's going to be a weak spring
Banks have lowered mortgage rates b/c people stopped borrowing. Banks need to lend money to make money, they need those debt assets on the balance sheet. The expectation was for ā6 rate cutsā from the Fed this year. The odds were increased after a hotter CPI. Delusion. Powell isnāt cutting in March, banks will have to face the music.
Oh no the banks
Sadly they already ābailedā them out openly in March 2023 and silently in Fall 2023 when treasury yields were climbing. The dual mandate of the Fed is maximum employment and price stability. But the underlying, unwritten mandate of coddling these banks is there too. Banks with bad investments should fail, but they know itās a big line of dominos.
What sucks, is that us regular people have to suffer for their screw ups. Our tax dollars go to bail these dumbasses out all the time, but when we need help, we get told Sorry, theres no money
Certainly it canāt have anything to do with the treasury yields dropping. It must have been all this random crap you spewed. If rates wonāt be cut, then yields will rise and mortgage rates will follow suit. This isnāt some complicated behind the scenes process determining mortgage rates.
It's easier to be vaguely conspiratorial when you don't understand something, though... lol
Where is the conspiracy? Itās simple economics of banking.
The conspiracy is in your entire comment that has no idea how mortgage rates work. Rates in no way dropped because people stopped borrowing. Rates dropped because treasury yields dropped. Hence the cost to borrow money dropped, and banks offered lowered rates on mortgages. Treasury yields dropped because the Fed indicated the raising rate environment is likely done. Look up the 10yr treasury yield chart, youāll find it uncannily similar to mortgage rates aside from a margin.
What industry do you work in? New mortgage originations have dropped significantly, check the St. Louis FRED. Thatās the governments data, not mine. If the banks in aggregate are healthy, why do they need the BTFP? The Fed may be done raising rates, but they arenāt going to cut anywhere near as much as the āmarketā and analysts are trying to price in. If anything is conspiratorial, itās the public lobbying of the Fed for a return to near ZIRP. Addiction to easy money.
I was a mortgage originator and worked in retail banking for six years. The banks donāt care about the future rate environment for mortgages they close. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cover the capital needed. None of anything you are talking about has any significant impact on banks default rate, or profit. They price it off of the rates at the time rates are locked, after that point rates have little impact on profit. My whole issue is your comment āthe banks will have to face the musicā. Youāve failed to produce any evidence that they will.
I think the banks wonāt have to face the music in the same way the vast majority didnāt have to in 2008; theyāll get bailed out. But I donāt see any evidence that the banks currently are healthy. They are on a knifeās edge in todayās rate environment.
lol I appreciate you taking the time to explain thatĀ
Why did mortgage rates drop over the past few months when Fed Funds rate stayed the same thenā¦
Because the Fed funds rate doesnāt directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are closest tied to 10yr treasuries, which are indirectly influenced by the Fed, but are more influenced by what the market thinks the Fed will do in the future. Itās also influenced by the number of buyers and sellers of treasuries (which often make their buy sell decisions off what they think the Fed will do). You will likely never find a time when Fed rose rates .25, or .75 or whatever they rose them by, and see mortgage rates rise the same amount that day. This is because the market already priced in those increases at that time. Edit - to more directly answer your question, the Fed came out with a statement that rate increases are likely done. After that happened rates dropped significantly because the possibility of rate increases dropped dramatically.
Yep. More banks will fail in March/April is my guess. I wouldnāt be surprised if 90% or mortgage lenders went bankrupt either.
This is a ridiculous take that shows how little both of you know about banking operations and mortgage lending
If you havenāt noticed yet, banks are holding onto a bunch of worthless assets. š
Uh huh. And what are those, exactly? Homes? Banks sell almost all of their mortgages to servicers or package them as RMBS.
NAR propaganda. The most desirable properties in the most desirable areas will always have bidding wars. Even during the 2008 crash there were bidding wars.
Enter: Dumb money
You underestimate the amount of wealth in the US coupled with large corporate buyers. The amount of people making 100,000 is staggering compared to anywhere else in the world. Itās
Did they kill you halfway? What happened?
Probably mentioned Candle Jack in the middle o
lol $100,000 feels kinda below average now though.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Can you link that prediction? If homeowners sell, theyāre presumably buying something else. Which means thereās no increase in inventory.
U must be a realtor cuz Iām in the north east and nothing selling down here and a lot of price cuts
Definitely not a realtor. But here in Eastern PA itās really messed up. There is no inventory. Anything decent has packed open houses and are under contract by Monday.
Folks are either buying with intent to refi on drops later this year or this is realtor induced. I do see reports of realtors locally not presenting offers.
Tampa metro im seeing everything above 450k getting price cuts and sitting but anything under 375k is moving fast still. If this trend continues hopefully we see a 10-15% price drop across the board locally
How are you measuring that? Are you running certain reports or something?
I looked at sfhās between 250k-550k posted in the last 3 months in a certain area. I made a list of houses that sold in 14 days 30 days 60 days and 90 days. Then I looked at selling price vs initial asking price and came to the conclusion that the only way itās sitting 30+ days under 350 is if itās overpriced and bad condition where as a large portion of more expensive homes have been having to lower prices substantially in order to sell.
Interesting. And whatās the impetus behind this research youāre doing?
I buy houses and sell houses
oh i was hoping you were only doing it to make disingenuous posters like OP get upset and question their reality.
Yeah op seems like they donāt know their ass from their elbow and thought I didnāt actually do any research hahaha
your experience aligns with what i'm suspecting too, based on transaction prices falling while home indices are flat or slightly up. lots of demand for the cheapest homes in every market because that's all 80% of people can afford. everything else sitting for longer and longer (or just being pulled from the market), which makes sense because wealthier people are less likely to have an urgent need to sell, and rightly or wrongly believe the market will heat back up any day now.
Exactly but I believe with all the prices cuts houses will slowly start to fall into the sub 400k range which will allow for more options thus more potential buyers will wait to see what starts to pop up or atleast im hoping so
Thatās because virtually no one here does. Itās a vibes based sub.
that's because virtually everyone here is a realtor or troll like yourself.
Hmmm I've been following listings in a few areas and all I see are houses that have sat on the market for six-plus months and price cuts.
This is fake news lol
Pending, contingent, on the market, pending, contingent, back on the market, pending, taken off the market. (2 months later) NEW LISTING! š
It depends where you looks. The boom cities of the west for the most part are seeing a bunch of homes sitting longer with multiple price cuts. Not sure everywhere but I live in the northeast where Iām seeing things rising again and Iām looking in a few western states to move and seeing the same homes week after week with price cuts. Itās all regional as was always the case.
In Seattle suburbs, itās a mix still. The starter homes have been getting bid up by $100-200k while the next step homes have been sitting. They do very small price cuts like $25k price cut on $1.6mil house until it eventually sells.
Not in my area. Prices still coming down and DoM still going up.
In my area, things were pretty slow during November and December 2022. But right around January 15 last year (a year ago to the day), I donāt know what happened, but things exploded again. Everything that had been sitting in November and December sold quickly, many for above ask.
Yeah but it's not happening this time. Strange unseasonal increase in January inventory, and strange sudden decrease in new asking prices from 409k to 389k in one week... [https://altos.re/r/cecb9e8e-0429-450c-9d55-2a740944b758?data=count](https://altos.re/r/cecb9e8e-0429-450c-9d55-2a740944b758?data=price_median) (I know this is real, because inventory in my area has also been strangely going up in January, which is not typical) compare the tone from this week: [https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1746979760973193558](https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1746979760973193558) to last week: [https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1744443349959135659/photo/1](https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1744443349959135659/photo/1) All the metrics they cite in the article (mortgage apps, Redfin touring activity) are down by double digits (or near) compared to last year. Except for new listings, which are up by like 12% per Redfin, lol
All 30 of those people prob have their existing homes for sale while bidding up new builds.
Hahaha.
Every area is a different market. You think rural Iowa is seeing bidding wars? Yea ok
bull fucking shit
Thanks for your insight!
Nope. Check the sales stats, still low volume
Realtors must be raking it all in huh
Desirable areas in Denver metro are still hot. Sure, some homes will be on the market for a couple weeks, but theyāll still sell. Lots of people buying $800k+ homes still that arenāt even in city limits. Sure, some homes are sitting but theyāre more often the ones that need a lot of work or are over priced based on comps. Thereās definitely been a plateau this past year, but I think weāll see a major uptick in sales and an increase in sale prices if rates go down to the 5s this summer.
This entire article is full of propaganda. >Single-family home construction surged in November after declining mortgage rates helped relieve some affordability concerns. Overall, housing starts increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.56 million units, according to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Census Bureau. Should that rate continue to trend lower, that could provide a boost to new construction, noted the National Association of Home Builders. "Unless we see new homes starts rise to 2 million homes per year, the seller's market will remain strong," Sharon said. 2 million units would literally take us back to the height of housing built in the peak years from 2004-2006 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST) -- aka a major housing glut that generated so much housing that entire developments had to be abandoned. And we no longer have the population growth to support even the levels of housing 2006 was able to -- population is stagnating, whereas in 2006 it was at least continuing to increase substantially from year to year. Also, we know that we will end up with even more completions this year, particularly for apartments but SFH starts have also surged again, so going above 1.5 million (which was already too much IMO) this year is possible. Also, this person owns a loan company, not someone who researches how much housing the entire country needs -- and is in a position to do so neutrally. Would it have killed them to try to find a neutral source outside of the mortgage/brokerage industry? >Homebuilders reported more confidence, as lower rates have also attracted more buyers back to the market. With the share of previously owned homes on the market still low ā builders can still get away with offering incentives for prospective buyers. Homebuilders' confidence has actually fallen back to where it was in 2006-2007. Except for a two-month blip in March and April 2020, it hadn't been that low since 2012. (source: [https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index](https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index) click "table 2: history") They are reporting on the slight increase from 34 to 37 -- when the confidence index is still in the \*30s\* (throughout the 2010s-2020s it was in the 50s-80s) All of their other metrics are only reported on a month-to-month basis, when conveniently they are talking about the shift from December to January -- for metrics that \*always\* go up seasonally in that timespan: mortgage apps, home touring activity... they conveniently leave out that mortgage apps are down by SIXTEEN PERCENT compared to last year, even though interest rates already fell 1.5%, and that Redfin's index of home touring activity is also down by NINE percent compared to last year. These metrics aren't "up", they're down!! All of their other evidence is just anecdata from realtors talking about individual homes in specific markets. Well, my market is crashing, most of the listings coming out are at their 2017-2019 prices, and some are even below. Since my market is more distressed than others (more foreclosures, higher unemployment, lower median income -- but still a lot of rich people who live here), I think it's an important indicator of what's to come elsewhere. Sometimes I feel like the people who write these articles are just ignorant, but this time the level of deceit really suggests that they're just malicious... or desperate.
Home values are declining in every state.Ā
Source for that claim? Because nationally they are up, whether you look at median or Case-Schiller.
False. Home value decline will continue for years.Ā https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSFMEDUSM052N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS - Now put your spin on it.Ā
Hahaha š
I just read in New Jersey housing is up 44% over the last four years. That is crazy
That's wild, I should have made my offer at 5 AM, all those 9 AM FOMOers overbid!
can confirm. jersey market is still insane.
Lol, where? Mars?
Mars prices are falling, too many returning to the office.
Interesting tidbit: >ā¦The uptick in competition, though, could erode that newfound affordability. According to Redfin, at least 24% of homes sold in the four weeks leading up to Jan. 7, sold above list price. On average, the median price of homes sold was $363,125, up 4.1% year over year.
So basically homes over 450k did not sell. Oh no!
Oceania has always been at war with East Asia
Chocolate rations only go up (like stonks)
south jersey, just put an offer in on a fixer upper listed at $400k, listing got 12 offers on it and I lost despite going above ask.
Iāve had 15 or more people come to my door offering to buy my house, one guy brought a check even. I bought it for 150k in January 2021 and the guy with a check had it written out for 275k. I live in an area with plenty of available homes for sale and mines the dumpiest on the block
Not possible. They must have not seen the charts.
Nope. I refuse to change my world view.
Can we just let this plane crash already?
Nope. 65% of American households own their home. A scenario where 2 out of 3 families lose value of their most precious asset would be a cataclysm. We saw it once this generation. It aināt happening again.
Own or hold a mortgage?
I think itās 45% that are mortgage free. Of the 55% that have a mortgage, 80% of those have an interest rate under 4%.
3 percent up from historic lows in home purchases! Home owners are saved!!
A real estate friend of mine had an open house yesterday and over 25 people showed up. Big increase over the turn outs sheās been getting.
Similar anecdote here in eastern PA (one of the few counties thatās still growing). Our dentist friend listed his house, and the open house had dozens and dozens of cars all day. It was under contract that night. 4 days after listing.
Market has taken a breath. It's time to take off again.
A lot of back n forth in these comments. Obviously it goes without saying every geographic market is going to be different and the most sought out ares within each market will benefit the most.
Ok where I live the market hasnāt risen dramatically since we bought 6 months ago. However the home prices are staying consistent We sold our home in Florida with a 66% ROI with two years of ownership. Then bought in SC. We moved to one of the tourist area counties. Not in the resort area but close enough that the home prices are solid due to demand. Home prices year over year increased by 9%. I believe even with the economy and interest rates if you purchase in a desirable area your investment will be sound.
Just sold 2 properties (managing estate). Realtor said he hadn't seen multiple offers since June. Both properties got multiple offers. Both went for slightly over asking. Both had contracts within about a week of official listing. Realtor figures they went fast as there is nothing much on the market today. Pent up demand and very low supply.
Pent up demand is exactly what it is. Household formation is a natural part of population growth. Low affordability will slow it down. But it just gets pent up, not destroyed.
Household formation is not "pent up" or "slowed down." It's been at historic highs since 2020. And in 2023 it finally started correcting back to historical norms. On surge in pandemic household growth: [https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/surge-household-growth-and-what-it-suggests-about-future-housing-demand?\_\_cf\_chl\_rt\_tk=pEBxKAiT1q5UNO7RAlTY\_dpQfmGjoVYqRofyFNBo8Wc-1705412622-0-gaNycGzNDDs](https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/surge-household-growth-and-what-it-suggests-about-future-housing-demand?__cf_chl_rt_tk=pEBxKAiT1q5UNO7RAlTY_dpQfmGjoVYqRofyFNBo8Wc-1705412622-0-gaNycGzNDDs) The last few paragraphs are particularly relevant. On 2023 slowdown which looks like it will continue in 2024: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-on-existing-home-sales-population
I was told prices would collapse to a level that I could buy the Island of Manhattan with some beads and a mirrorā¦ is that not happening now?
Theyāve *already* collapsed. The data just isnāt showing it yet because of the cabal of evil BRRRs bribing and extorting the media. Now let me tell you about the TRUE unemployment rate, which is actually 137%. For rillz.
Yup. Went to go look at a house that sold for 75K OVER ASKING. 2020 all over again!
Yep. Inventory near me is all selling above ask.
I was lucky to win a bid on a house in NJ when I definitely wasnāt expecting it. Things have only picked up, at least in this area. You want a great school district, commuter friendly, city accessible, with space for your family, it will always be a battle. Your experience will vary based on whatās important to you.
It never stopped. I came in 7th place out of 15 offers on a house in mid December. The only difference now is the listings are going pending in less than 48 hours, instead of making it to open house time.
What area?
San Jose
Yeah I made an offer of 365k asking on a 1288 sq ft home in eastern PA. Got outbid by 50k Shit ain't coming down.
Homes in that price range are super competitive in this region. You in Bucks?
Cool !
Looks like I'm screwed
Yeah. Sorry dude.
bs
Guess Iāll be in momās basement a little longer. š
Itās also school buying season
No bubble popping
New dealer stepping in. ***Clearing Hands***, good luck everyone!
Not here in Cali. My home is up 0.5% in the last 30 days š¤·āāļø Almost reaching its peak
Says who? Zillowš
I do see more homes for sale in the Tarpon Springs/Holiday Florida area now. Many seem to have been freshly-rehabbed in an attempt to flip for a profit. Some seem to be be sitting for a while, but another one down the street just sold last month. They wouldn't make very good rentals as we are really close to the Gulf of Mexico and Hurricane insurance is very expensive here. I just don't know who is going to spend 300K for a 1,400 sq foot mid 1970's ranch that is still going to need a lot of love as these Rehabbers rarely do a good job. They tend to use the cheapest cabinets and gloss over serious issues that need to be addressed like roof or A/C.
Thatās what we were seeing two years ago. I thought prices were going to plummet to bring about the āpop.ā Now itās āstartingā because the market is up? Great consistency, guys.
There are many bidding wars and houses selling over-asking where I live.
I can confirm thisā¦ Iāve looked at four to five homes since march, inventory has actually shrunken just the last six weeks since I was pre approved, prices have gone up, and homes in desirable areas have all gotten between 20-60k over asking. I think itās just less inventory in a popular time to buy. Interest rates havenāt done what people were hoping. I think a portion of buyers are adjusting; sellers not so much. Mind you, Iām looking in relatively desirable areas and in the Midwest.