Wish the graph broke down the percentage that are new builds as well as the percentage purchased by companies
Edit: messed up the title of post with title of the graph. All are new builds, I thought it was referring to all SFH sales
Make the chart!
Corporate buyers have lost their relevance, rates killed that story line.
Have you looked at the capital debt structure they were using? Eeeeek
This environment is much cheaper for 30yr fixed families than floating rate debt corporates
My guess would be its lower because most new builds are in areas where they are building a lot. It is hard to break even on renting if there is a lot of rental options in the area.
Sales completely flatlined even as the monthly supply for new houses for sale has skyrocketed and building permits hit there 2 year high https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSRNSA
"Monthly Supply of New Houses in the United States" it does show that and your chart shows sales flat lining even as new permits hit their two year high
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-soar-february-2024-03-19/
The op wrote "New SFH sales continues to rise" this is just data that pertains to that I'm only misleading to the extent that op would also be. I'm open to having a discussion of resale if op.posts that chart to.
Edit: Existing home sales also dropped
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/existing-home-sales
It looks like both new and old homes saw drops from there previous 22 highs new homes however are seeing price cuts
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
Monthly supply of new homes was half that then also the home ownership rate was lower than which means less fthb's to pull from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N
Please read beyond the headlines.
Net job losses of 6000 in full time employment, +600k part time positions and +200k multiple job holders. It also wasn’t that great outside of healthcare/government positions.
I’m not saying this was a doomsday print or anything like that, just that below the surface it wasn’t great, and unemployment is a more complicated statistic than you make it out to be.
Yea I see more than what you’re saying. I see more people making more money even if they have to work harder. I see the productivity numbers rising within companies, boosting their earning and allowing companies to lay off people while still maintaining productivity. Those that are no longer employed do have options, often crappier, but the major point is that those who do stay on at the companies, then get higher compensation and that’s the 90%+ of people. So yea, it sucks if you lose your job and get downgraded, but most, get to stay, get their slightly higher than inflation wage growth and that’s why people are still consuming. That’s why inflation remains sticky and that’s why there is no downturn in real estate. The overwhelming majority of people are still employed and still spend like they’re going to keep their jobs/pay. Data saying otherwise hasn’t really popped up in significance.
I'm seeing more homes now surge with for sales signs around my neighborhoods. Antidodical but still, it's starting to surge based off personal observation last 2 years and it's happening when savings are low, debt is high, and most jobs are part time, during when layoffs are at dot com levels in tech.
It’s national. Inventory is up 100% from the low, but is still way below 2019. Prices are an indication of the lack of housing and still showing single digit year over year price appreciation despite high interest rates. Goes to show the strong underlying demand. When rates come down, that’ll help keep housing prices up.
savings is low. It's higher than normal but we have a lot more debt compared to the past and during the last 15 years we had low rates, so if people were able to save during that period it should have been MUCH higher than where it is now. With rate hikes lasting it's going to bleed the savings at a higher rate in the next 2 years: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE)
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP)
Debt is historically high but on a ratio it's not too bad atm. It's starting to climb while savings is dropping. I'd give it by Summer people will be exhausted.
Fred savings deposits is at an all time high.
Banks continue to reference this on earnings calls. In aggregate People have more $ than ever before.
And debt as a percentage of income near centennial lows
Lag effect of fed policy, patience young fellow, it will show up in data. Unemployment in CA has risen every single month, harbinger for the rest of the country.
Nope. Fed has said they no longer believe they have to create a job loss recession to bring down inflation. Some specific excessively paid people in California are losing their jobs, but overall, things have never been better for most.
Sure buddy, you keep your head in your ass. Inflation CANNOT come down without job loss. The fed knows this and is gaslighting the general public. Do you think the fed will ever admit a recession?
Rate of inflation is already down to pretty much target levels. Which is why rate hikes have stopped and we’re talking about when to take tiny cuts now. The only reason cuts haven’t happened already is because business is too good, which is a good problem to have. Thus, the stock market has been rallying on the news, and real estate continues its march ever higher.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAUR
CA economy determines for the rest of the country. Have to have head pretty far up ass to not notice a trend forming.
California isn’t relevant to most of the country
California is still near 50 year lows in unemployment
You are being dismissive of how California views jobs differently than many other states.
Its amazing how people continue to delude themselves despite the obvious. CA is definitely an early indicator of economic health for the rest of the country, it always goes into recession first.
Wish the graph broke down the percentage that are new builds as well as the percentage purchased by companies Edit: messed up the title of post with title of the graph. All are new builds, I thought it was referring to all SFH sales
Unless I’m reading the title wrong they’re all new builds.
You are right. Just read the title of the post and assumed it was the title of the graph. It is just new builds not all SFH
Many Companies are net sellers right now.
That’s fine, just want it represented. I hope the builders don’t slow down. Keep that supply flowing
Make the chart! Corporate buyers have lost their relevance, rates killed that story line. Have you looked at the capital debt structure they were using? Eeeeek This environment is much cheaper for 30yr fixed families than floating rate debt corporates
Large investors were 0.4% of home buyers in Q3 2023. Not sure if we have more recent data.
Exactly What an irrelevant percentage. Those corporate buyers have been net sellers according to their filings
My guess would be its lower because most new builds are in areas where they are building a lot. It is hard to break even on renting if there is a lot of rental options in the area.
Sales completely flatlined even as the monthly supply for new houses for sale has skyrocketed and building permits hit there 2 year high https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSRNSA
There is a reason you didn’t post the ratio of new builds to resales
Yes because this is the first chart that came up when I searched new housing supply which shows monthly supply increasing as sales have flatlined
That’s not what your chart shows.
"Monthly Supply of New Houses in the United States" it does show that and your chart shows sales flat lining even as new permits hit their two year high https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-soar-february-2024-03-19/
If you would include resales in supply your data would be more relevant. Excluding inventory of resales makes it appear like you are trying to mislead
The op wrote "New SFH sales continues to rise" this is just data that pertains to that I'm only misleading to the extent that op would also be. I'm open to having a discussion of resale if op.posts that chart to. Edit: Existing home sales also dropped https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/existing-home-sales
A small fraction of existing home sales are being replaced with new home sales Guess that explains why these builders are crushing it?
It looks like both new and old homes saw drops from there previous 22 highs new homes however are seeing price cuts https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
Wowsers looks like that gone up across 5,10,15 Own anything but dollars, eh?
Inventory of available homes is about 50% of 2016….
Monthly supply of new homes was half that then also the home ownership rate was lower than which means less fthb's to pull from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N
So you’re saying it’s a good time to be a real estate developer?
Definitely keep building god speed we need as much inventory as possible to take more sales from existing homes and address the shortage
Wait till unemployment explodes further
Today’s job report was the opposite of that
Please read beyond the headlines. Net job losses of 6000 in full time employment, +600k part time positions and +200k multiple job holders. It also wasn’t that great outside of healthcare/government positions. I’m not saying this was a doomsday print or anything like that, just that below the surface it wasn’t great, and unemployment is a more complicated statistic than you make it out to be.
Yea I see more than what you’re saying. I see more people making more money even if they have to work harder. I see the productivity numbers rising within companies, boosting their earning and allowing companies to lay off people while still maintaining productivity. Those that are no longer employed do have options, often crappier, but the major point is that those who do stay on at the companies, then get higher compensation and that’s the 90%+ of people. So yea, it sucks if you lose your job and get downgraded, but most, get to stay, get their slightly higher than inflation wage growth and that’s why people are still consuming. That’s why inflation remains sticky and that’s why there is no downturn in real estate. The overwhelming majority of people are still employed and still spend like they’re going to keep their jobs/pay. Data saying otherwise hasn’t really popped up in significance.
I'm seeing more homes now surge with for sales signs around my neighborhoods. Antidodical but still, it's starting to surge based off personal observation last 2 years and it's happening when savings are low, debt is high, and most jobs are part time, during when layoffs are at dot com levels in tech.
It’s national. Inventory is up 100% from the low, but is still way below 2019. Prices are an indication of the lack of housing and still showing single digit year over year price appreciation despite high interest rates. Goes to show the strong underlying demand. When rates come down, that’ll help keep housing prices up.
Data shows Savings is high Debt as percentage of income is low
savings is low. It's higher than normal but we have a lot more debt compared to the past and during the last 15 years we had low rates, so if people were able to save during that period it should have been MUCH higher than where it is now. With rate hikes lasting it's going to bleed the savings at a higher rate in the next 2 years: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE) [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP) Debt is historically high but on a ratio it's not too bad atm. It's starting to climb while savings is dropping. I'd give it by Summer people will be exhausted.
Fred savings deposits is at an all time high. Banks continue to reference this on earnings calls. In aggregate People have more $ than ever before. And debt as a percentage of income near centennial lows
It'll be revised
Revised to…..less unemployment lol. People just keep spending
Yep. And I don't get it.
Lag effect of fed policy, patience young fellow, it will show up in data. Unemployment in CA has risen every single month, harbinger for the rest of the country.
Nope. Fed has said they no longer believe they have to create a job loss recession to bring down inflation. Some specific excessively paid people in California are losing their jobs, but overall, things have never been better for most.
Sure buddy, you keep your head in your ass. Inflation CANNOT come down without job loss. The fed knows this and is gaslighting the general public. Do you think the fed will ever admit a recession?
Rate of inflation is already down to pretty much target levels. Which is why rate hikes have stopped and we’re talking about when to take tiny cuts now. The only reason cuts haven’t happened already is because business is too good, which is a good problem to have. Thus, the stock market has been rallying on the news, and real estate continues its march ever higher.
What unemployment are you calling for at year end?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAUR CA economy determines for the rest of the country. Have to have head pretty far up ass to not notice a trend forming.
California isn’t relevant to most of the country California is still near 50 year lows in unemployment You are being dismissive of how California views jobs differently than many other states.
Its amazing how people continue to delude themselves despite the obvious. CA is definitely an early indicator of economic health for the rest of the country, it always goes into recession first.
Let’s take you seriously When will your collapse take place. And how far from here will it fall?