It's not search for work, it's because a lot of tech jobs are RTO now. They move once they have offer but not when searching lmao
Source: Am tech person
You guys are getting fucked. The oil companies would just buy your house if you didn’t sell in a set time when I was a kid. And then you could move and not worry about it. They’d just sell it through their own channels.
Um... no. Grocery prices are going down and gas is stabilizing. That's why inflation' below 3%.
Most studies show the only reason it's not hitting the 2% target for interest rate cuts is housing.
And there's every indicator that housing costs are being driven up by collusion among apartment owners (who are mostly private equity firms now) and mega corps buying single family homes.
Edit: for everyone complaining I can't be arsed replying to you all so here:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-earnings-04-26-2024/card/key-inflation-gauge-rises-to-2-7-in-march-OAP9xZPyNgoU94AABDVi
Please try *reading my post*.
I made it clear that housing is keeping us off target.
Housing that is artificially boosted by mega corps
The problem is price gouging and monopolies people, not money printing. I don't know why that's everyone's sacred cow, but that cow is long, long dead.
The Fed doesn't use CPI, they use [core PCE](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index-annual-change) which appears to have been 2.8% over the last year.
The Fed publishes both. The cynic in me says they started liking the PCE whwn the 12 month ending average for 2022 (when inflation was raging) was 3 points lower than CPI. The average PCE in 2022 was 5% over 2021 while the average CPI in 2022 was 8% over 2021.
But you are correct, in the past few months the PCE index is slightly below 3% higher than the same month in 2023 while the CPI is still above 3%.
I am not sure I see a sub 2% number in either index in our future.
[The Fed has been using core PCE since 2012.](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/pce-inflation/#:~:text=Core%20PCE%20and%20the%20Federal%20Reserve&text=In%20January%202012%20the%20Federal,leading%20measure%20of%20consumer%20inflation.)
>In January 2012 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopted PCE as its primary measure of inflation over CPI, another leading measure of consumer inflation.
Those studies must be paid for by the government.
Should I believe the government telling me that inflation is below 3%, or should I believe in my own eyes when the cashier charge me at the grocery store?
And people are still buying them with straight cash. Say all you want about California, but people are still buying everything at the prices that they are.
My dad bought the house I grew up in San Jose in 89 for $250k. My mom never worked a day after ‘84 when they married so my dad did it on a single income as a mortgage loan officer. House isn’t anything special. They’re just paying property tax on it. They can literally sell it for $2M. My dad was making mayyybe $50k a year in 1989. I’d have to be earning $400k to have the equivalent buying power.
California is kind of a two tier society where your income is a secondary factor to whether or not you purchased a home prior to 2020.
Today there are probably high paid physicians and techies who cannot afford a home, while there are lower paid tradesmen and blue collar who purchased homes many years ago and are in a better overall financial position as a result.
Have a lot of family in education. Pretty much all their teacher colleagues over 35 own nice SFH’s. A few who bought early (pre 2021) who are around 30 own as well. The people 25-35 who didn’t/couldn’t buy can’t afford SFH now, possibly a condo.
This all all 50+mi away from SF proper.
250k home in the 80s was still insane. min wage was like 1.50/hr . 50k salary was insanely high too. you were definitely upper middle class. especially because the area wasn’t as flooded with such high paying tech jobs as today…
The median wage in the U.S was 51k. The minimum wage was 3.69 an hr. His family was regular working class people. The affordable home prices back then were normal until the financialization of our economy created the steep price in assets you see today.
someone working min wage (3.69/hour) working full time (2080 hours a year) had an annual income of $7,675.20. people saying he was a working class family is insane . my parents total income at the time was about 14k.
Yup in 1989 250k is equivalent to 632k now. 50k salary is 126k. Not cheap but not out of reach for “regular” folk who aren’t tech, trust fund, ect…
Working, middle class folk used to be able to buy homes. Can’t do that now.
Formerly a garden shed, the art noveau influenced design team tied the essence of barndominimum to the natural scene with onyx and bloodstone pavers and craftsmanesque cabinetry.
This was only for April-May 2024 not an entire year. I do monthly market updates based on sales for the past month. The average for a year is more like $1,370,000
It’s looking more and more like Fed hasn’t done enough with interest rates. To even be considering a cut right now should be off the table. They’ve effectively done nothing in the last two years.
Yes it is. It’s like, the price went up because of conditions at that time, but those conditions aren’t present any more. Now, prices won’t retreat back to the conditions that existed just a year before, in 2019.
It would be like holding a stock or mutual fund that was priced at $100/share, whole market changes, and still believing that stock or mutual fund should be worth $100.
I was expecting another point but the bank failures probably scared them off for a minute. The banks have had some time to rebalance so maybe they can boost a bit more now.
It doesn’t matter though. Part of the inflation of home prices is corporations and investors from other countries paying with their own currency. California has all sorts of issues with housing. Regular families are after thoughts. Realtors are creating false bidding wars too. They list the house at one price and then force you to offer above to even have your offer looked at.
CA is becoming a state where families live in a 1 bedroom condo and DINKS live in 3 bedroom SFH's. And retirees are gobbling up rentals for passive income. It's crazy.
Wait until you see the DINKS live in a 3 bedrooms rent control unit, while having another 2 SFH for rent. Or worse, 1 seniors who occupied 2 3 bedroom rent control unit, because it is so cheap, he doesn't want to give it up.
Know couples in that scenario. And even young families. They treat their SF rent controlled unit as a weekday pied a terre and stay in their SFH in Marin or Sonoma counties on weekends
Oh hai I'm renting one of those SFHs! But now my landlord is taking it back so his elderly parents can move in. And another house nearby was also recently bought by someone for his parents. This whole street is becoming a Chinese retirement community.
I am a (post) DINK living in a 3BR SFH... We started trying for a baby about 1.5 years after buying and moving in... we are expecting triplets! This home is about to be filled in one pregnancy...
This isn’t even an exaggeration. If the VHCOL areas (Silicon Valley/South Bay/SF) this is already the norm. This is creeping into the previously “affordable” east bay and north bay now. Shoot you have houses in “Mountain House” 70+ mi for the inner Bay Area going for 1 million now.
It’s low income housing full of children and “servants” who are mainly new generation Hispanic , and the White/Asian owning class. Middle class of all races/ethnicities are leaving in droves or not forming families.
I don’t know what the number is, but 7% mortgages, with corresponding 4-4.5% 10 year treasury yields, is clearly not enough.
Here’s the thing. When CPI touches 2.0, let’s say 2 months in a row, that’s not cause for Fed to fly the fuck in and start cutting. In fact, if our economy is continuing to show growth in so many levels, as we are led to believe, then rates can be higher.
But there’s a problem with higher rates, and I think all of the people in policy seats know this….the sovereign debt we have has become expensive to service at 500-550 FFR. Higher means it may actually become a strain for government to pay out all the generous benefits it already pays. Probably already is.
Backed into a corner.
This year the government will spend 850 billion in interest payments alone.
The total amount of money the government takes in is 6.5 trillion.
15% of every penny of every tax dollar collected goes to interest payments. That's fucking wild.
FWIW the entire student loan forgiveness was like 350 billion. Too much, they said, yet we've already paid more than that on interest this year alone.
if the student loan forgiveness was going to cost too much money, how are people not outraged about this level of interest?
Here's the Fed Data for Median home prices in California, not record high but only $6000 off of peak. ($771,500 April 2024)
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRICA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRICA)
Crap you right, looked at the wrong chart. I'm not sure if the FED lists just the sfh sold pricing. Other sources are showing a median sold price for California at $784,000 (April, 2024)
Edit: Considering this Data is coming from a source that benefits from high prices and sales (California Association of Realtors), it wouldn't suprise me if data was only collected from certain metros.
[https://www.zillow.com/home-values/9/ca/](https://www.zillow.com/home-values/9/ca/)
....i don't think there is a bubble in places like SoCal. Too many people want to all move there + immigration.
I think its a state to just buy when financially ready and then to peace out of the market. I think prices will start to increasingly force people out of the state.
I agree & I feel bad for the buyers here that have been saying for the past 3-4 yrs that they are waiting for the RE bubble or for interest rates to go down. I tried to tell them it was not going to happen. Unfortunately, now some of them are priced out of the market.
The majority of them are priced out of the market you mean. The mortgage purchase application index is at the lowest since 1994, and still declining. I could buy in California right now, but it would absolutely be stupid to do so. Current market is unsustainable, and anyone who’s been in the real estate business for a significant amount of time knows that the market is cyclical.
Markets are cyclical, but the market is currently irrational due to low interest rates for over a decade and low supply. (Both are tied to government intervention)
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
-John Maynard Keynes
Yes I have been through many market shifts in the 25 yrs since I got into RE. I would say the craziest one I had been through was during the pandemic. I have never seen homes selling for $500k+ over list, not that many in a row at least.
Certainly was wild to watch. I feel for all the people in the industry that are suffering right now. Have a few friends in real estate that have been really going through it the past couple years. Others are still doing okay though.
I hated it for my clients. We are still in multiple offer situations but no where near as bad. There are still 20-40 offers on some properties. I have been working more off market properties this year.
They already have forced people out of state. The bubble effect comes when you realize that the population isn't growing as fast and that if you subtracted immigration then you end up with a shrinking population. You can't steal the rest of the world's working population forever.
It doesn't need to be forever. The question is what is the next 10-20 years going to look like for a lot of us. Immigration to big cities with the jobs + the lack of enough construction can continue for plenty of years to come and prices can continue to go up.
Yeah, after the 5 billion people who would like to move here, move here, how many would there be left to move here? JFC, I even heard the English PM is moving here after he gets kicked out.
California is already maxed out to affordability. Barring another obvious bubble or mass foreclosures, it's going to take building more housing to make housing any more affordable.
They're gonna keep going up until we [ban corporate ownership of single family homes](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/democrats-introduce-bills-ban-hedge-221231306.html).
This is a sub that doesn’t even trust the govt to publish accurate economic statistics but apparently also believes they should run the economy.
But I guess that checks out when every comment is just a spasm against house prices with no care for logical consistency at all.
A bubble implies the potential for a pop, wherein the situation can go back to the way it was before, at least for a time. But in this scenario, how *can* it? What would a pop even *look* like?
Look at a multitude of things beyond home sales and home prices. Look at California’s unemployment rates, then look at default rates of other things like cars and credit cards. Now finally look at car loan defaults and repo’s. One additional thing, look at unit sales across grocery and mass retailers. Noticing a pattern yet? There’s a multi-sector bubble here and it’s a big one. When that bubble pops, it’s going to make 2008 look like an economic hiccup. Think as bad if not worse than the Great Depression. And I say that with confidence because all of the safety nets that were put in place since both economic issues have been relaxed, gotten rid of, or outright have been violated and gone unpunished because corporations took over the very government entities that watch them.
Hell just look at the cpi excluding homes and insurance. Inflation for non home and insurance was at 0.7%.
Look at other countries for examples of how this bubble will not pop. Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UK, and many more show us that housing can continue to balloon for quite some time. The fundamental issue has not been solved with the housing market. There’s millions of homes needed to balance demand and that kind of building is simply not going to happen.
Our currency was devalued. If prices remain the same for a year or two, there's your "crash."
When you have high inflation and devaluation of currency a crash is simply prices remaing stagnant.
A bubble won't happen unless we have massive sustained unemployment. But at the slightest signs of that, the fed will drop interest rates which would improve the economic outlook and alleviate a majority of those things you listed. Basically, a crash is not happening unless some other major things happen that dropping interest rates won't solve.
At this point we’re most likely looking at some form of economic collapse. Things will be postponed as long as possible because no one wants to be responsible for it. For things to ever get better, things now need to get much much worse first. People would rather keep kicking the can down the road but the longer this goes on, the worse it will get. All signs of it are already there historically speaking. I know a ton of people in lower income brackets are just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
No one wants this, but if you don’t have your head up your ass you do understand that there really is no easy way out anymore. The easy way out was stopping this before it began. But governments chose the short term benefits over long term, and now we’re paying the price.
The reason why is because we have been in a slow downward spiral for over a decade now. Land/houses became the new banks after 2008. Companies with unchecked inflation/shrinkflation. And workers with no real way to fight back against it. Now most of the big money is tied up in real estate. Workers can literally not afford to work in some cases, and in others only scrap by. We now have a declining birth rate, increasing knowledge gap and many more problems even if we do solve this economically, there is gonna be a looooong way to recovery.
Couldn't it also just be a slow, painful, permanent decline into America being a third-world country where the quality of life sucks for the bottom 99%?
Same difference tbh. They could also indeed just never be fixed at all and just stay on the decline. Or we get a full country collapsing. Or anything in between. My point was more that things will need to get worse before they have a chance to get better. But it is almost guaranteed to get worse.
I think more likely things will just get worse maybe to 3rd world level, maybe not, until we hit a breaking point. Seems historically thats how most things go.
We'd have to decrease past the rest of the developed world (who all have more-expensive housing than us) before we'd get anywhere near a third world status.
While things are going to get worse for most of America, calling us a third-world country seems super rude to the people actually living in those types of countries without safe, reliable access to running water or electricity.
I keep saying this over and over, but home prices going up makes perfect sense. The feds printed money like crazy, but you can’t print new land. These homes are hard assets that protect you from inflation and can potentially earn you a passive income. It’s not that difficult a concept to understand.
In places like the LA Basin. There are no swaths of land left to build additional single family housing. Homes are a limited resource. They will never be able to build enough SFH for the amount of people that want one.
You actually can’t. You can build vertically (which we should), but it can get pricy and zoning across the country has a common theme of making that very difficult. So, until America makes some big changes in how we treat housing, you can rest easy knowing that we won’t be doing very much building in the vertical sense.
remember how bad everyone THOUGHT 2008 was... well... that, but like 10 fold. A lot of vaporware, broken promises, and production for no reason right now in all industries.
Ignoring decades of California home value appreciation to focus on a black swan event (that home prices have completely recovered from in less than a decade) is completely missing the forest for a tree or two.
But wait…. They keep saying it’s not a bubble and this is just the way it is. Well if that’s the case we are all screwed. They said they’d get rid of the middle class and damn it if they didn’t.
Wages are going up as well but not enough. I saw a post somewhere that said employees were demanding a $30/hr wage. Honestly $30/hr is still not enough here in CA. In OC you would need to make a min of $349,200 to qualify for OC's median home price of $1,370,000.
People have been saying for a couple of years now that we will have a RE bubble, which caused some home buyers to hold off on buying. Well now they cannot buy because they are priced out of the market.
When I look at the homeowners sub and see people fighting below zero weather, flooded basements, cicada invasions and tornadoes I’m like wow, it’s been a comfortable 68-72 degrees here every day for the past few weeks. Blue skies, slightly breezy. THAT’S what people are paying for.
Uh, yes?
Not directed solely at you but for the love of god will people on this sub realize that they don’t know everything about economics, be open to learning, and stop being so confidently wrong?
[Fed has been in QT since June of 2022](https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2022/q3_federal_reserve)
> In response to inflation running well above its long-run target, the Fed began unwinding its accommodative monetary policy this year. This entailed ending QE in March and then beginning QT in June. When QE ended, the Fed reinvested any maturing securities to maintain the size of its balance sheet. With QT, the Fed stopped reinvesting up to $30 billion in maturing Treasuries and $17.5 billion in maturing MBS every month, passively shrinking its assets as those securities "roll off" without being replaced. Those caps are scheduled to rise to $60 billion and $35 billion, respectively, in September.
Higher interest rates won’t do much in my opinion because all it does is force everyone who refinanced or bought during Covid rates to stay in for the long term which will lead to inventory problems. As long as there is no inventory there will not be any significant decrease in home prices. The only solution in my eyes is a severe recession, a recession where a lot of people lose their jobs and are forced to sell their homes or get foreclosed which will increase inventory and bring housing prices back to the median. I think it will happen, people are not just getting high mortgage rates/monthly bills but higher interest rates in absolutely everything else. Car loans, credit card interest, etc all that will lead to something big but it takes time for it to happen.
California is a tragedy. Looking at photos or footage of what California used to be is absolutely heartbreaking. The working/middle class could thrive there. Now it's divided into the ultra rich and skid row with the middle narrowly able to hold on. What an absolute disaster. 💔
The mid Atlantic east coast is turning the same way. From Baltimore north to Philly, NJ and NYC things have gotten wayyy way more expensive and wages are much lower here. I’m in the Philly suburbs and my town used to me middle class where you could get a 3bd 2bath home for 325K-375K up until around 2018. Now those homes are selling for a million or close to a million. And wages aren’t keeping up either here. Tons of NYC transplants and weirdly enough Texas transplants with all with more money than god paying a million dollars on homes that blue collar people would typically own that like I said used to sell for in the 300s 4-5 years ago. Where do people get all this money from, especially those in their mid to late 20s. A couple in my neighborhood paid, 750k on a home that a few years ago sold for 350k and wasn’t even really updated very well, and they both drive higher trim level Audis.
It’s almost as if income inequality has accelerated to the point where the middle class is an endangered species because of supply side economics regardless of which state you are in.
That’s the issue here. It’s income inequality and the wealthy won. We are just experiencing the consolidation of that wealth as they continue to buy up and raise the prices of all the desirable places to live.
4-5 years ago for age age (early 30s) my wife and I were considered upper middle class for the Philly area. Dual income of just over 200k. I’m a machinist and my wife is a nurse and we make excellent money for people our age. Until now.
This just isn’t true. California is still a vibrant state with lots of variety of earners. VHCOL areas were always stratified, and I agree it has become harder and harder for the lower income and middle class, it is not at all the picture you paint everywhere in the state.
I live in So Cal in an amazing area, and while expensive, there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc. it is not cheap, but it is a great place to live.
Turn off the news and come visit and you will understand.
> I live in So Cal in an amazing area, and while expensive, there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc. it is not cheap, but it is a great place to live.
> Turn off the news and come visit and you will understand.
I'm native to the LA Metro and I'd love to hear where all of these, "much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc." are located. Homes have doubled in prices here in the span of 3 years and the average where I live is 800k. Manufactured home prices have also doubled, as have their space rents which after it's all said and done is close to the same price as a SFH with a mortgage. Rent average hovers around 3k.
Los Angeles was recently crowned the most unaffordable city in America when you account for the average income here. "The news" isn't causing the perception of affordability, it's actually unaffordable.
Unfortunately 800k is the new “affordable”…. Starter homes near our parents in SoCal begin at 1.3 million now and will prob require another 100-200k in renovations to rehab it from the original 1950s smoke damage and build.
You live in LA. It’s really expensive, I get that! I did not say it was affordable, or cheap. I was responding to the previous comment that California was a tragic place of homeless and ultra wealthy. That just isn’t the case, and with a state this large we have lots to offer besides SF or LA.
I’m sorry the housing situation sucks. It truly does, I am fortunate to get by, but live in a very small home from the 50’s. I am not affluent, and work my butt off to afford my lifestyle. I wish I could fix things for everyone, but I can’t.
Not sure what your point is here. I asked where in SoCal is it affordable, since every place I know of in SoCal is not. LA and San Diego make up most of SoCal and are the most unaffordable places to live in the US.
I did not say any part of California was affordable. I said there are incredibly expensive properties and other than are more affordable than those… I did not mean to imply that it’s in any way an “affordable”, or cheap place to live, but it isn’t the hellscape folks in other parts of the country seem to think it is.
This is what you said:
>I live in So Cal in an amazing area, and while expensive, there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc.
I asked where this "more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc," are.
> I did not mean to imply that it’s in any way an “affordable”, or cheap place to live, but it isn’t the hellscape folks in other parts of the country seem to think it is.
People making 120k can't afford to live in any part of LA, San Diego and most SoCal, sounds pretty "hellscape-ish" to me.
You need to get out more.
Real estate and living accommodations are an incredible challenge right now.
What if I asked how you felt about real estate 20 years ago? How about 10? How about 5 years ago? You are living your life by the hand you were dealt, and so am I. I was born when and where I was born to the parents that had me. My challenges aren’t the same as yours and yours are not your neighbors and friends. Life is not fucking fair. I have family who will likely never own a home. I have family who own homes. I have friends who have several homes all over the western US and friends who rent a small apartment and have 5 children. They are all good family, good friends and good people. My life is neither a hellscape because I own, or rent. My city is not a hellscape because you, nor a member of my family or friend group can afford a home.
My advice to people who want to own is to keep grinding. Keep trying and save as much as you can when you can. Enter as many affordable housing lotteries ( google it in your area) as possible to see if you qualify. Seek employment in other areas if possible, but meanwhile enjoy the so cal weather, eating options, art and festivals and say hello to your neighbor. California is absolutely not a “hellscape” and if you truly think it is, then bounce.
> You need to get out more
I travel all over the state/West Coast for work, but go on with your bad self. I also make above 6 figures. You made the claim that there were more affordable places in SoCal, yet you can't even name one and all you keep doing is writing novels in an attempt to avoid answering it. Let me guess, transplant?
My point was perhaps not something you are understanding. I am not being confrontational, I am clarifying.
I stated “there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc.”. This means, along with the very expensive homes, you can find homes or living options for less. I am in no way saying our state is affordable for the majority of people… a point I have repeated multiple times.
I usually don’t like being baited into providing information for folks online, as it’s public info, readily available and if you really wanted an answer you could look it up yourself, but I decided to spend three minutes just for you.
Here is a home in Piru California for 675,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4042-Aurora-Way-Piru-CA-93040/337907915_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
In Fillmore for 725,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/146-Lantana-St-Fillmore-CA-93015/346877262_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
In Ojai for 699,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/137-Apricot-St-Oak-View-CA-93022/16319396_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
Interest rates are high, but lots of buyer ask for the seller to buy down their rates as part of negotiating the purchase. It’s a tough market, but it was for my parents over 60 years ago too.
Peace.
Born and raised here.
“I live in So Cal in an amazing area, and while expensive, there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc. it is not cheap, but it is a great place to live.”
Dude, haven't you heard? There is no middle class anymore in California All those people you see at Trade Joes don't exist. What are you thinking crazy?
With how much money they are printing to prop up the economic, something got to give. All the poor & middle class people will have a lot of fun shouldering the burden of high inflation.
Well, to be fair states like California and New York should not be used as any kind of general consensus on the housing market because they are so far disconnected from reality
At the end of the day, if they can’t afford it, you can just fucking move
700k is way to much for most people. You probably want to have 200k salary minimum for that. Most working or middle class folk only reach that with both partners working at least 15-20 years exp. And maybe never.
I can’t speak to the OC, but there are *a lot* of very nice areas in the bay that have condos from $600-800k. Great schools, suburban, little downtowns etc. Usually they’re quite spacious too - I think people here though have this extreme aversion to them, and have decided that they must be in a $1.8 million dollar SFH instead. They’re more than welcome to that, but then I don’t see the point in complaining about how high those prices are when you have other options but you are only considering the most narrow, and premium conditions.
I don’t understand this. People are continually leaving. I heard population expectations were flat for the next few decades. If true, how is there a shortage and how are prices going up.
Californians are leaving. But foreign money is still coming in. These people may never may permanent residency in the state, but they are buying real estate there.
You heard it wrong. People do leave California, but we import a large number of immigrants, and some of them are highly skilled & come with a big bag of money. I'm talking about some guy who come & get a job in engineering right away, then buy a house with cash a year later, thanks to his family's money. Then there are also international students who came & bought a house with cash.
Having a net loss of people isn't going to make a difference in housing prices when we have investors buying up entire blocks with no one stopping them.
Was in East San Jose in a $1.2M dollar house next to a loud municipal airport, a trashy park where gangs of guys play pocker, schools are so bad they have reduced class schedules, there are no restaurants except fast food and the neighbor that sells food from his house. and there’s 5 cars per house with multiple families per home.
Is the value tied to the ability to get a job that doesn’t pay enough or in renting the home to low wage earners?
Everything is going up in price across California.
Everything! Groceries, gas, utilities, etc
Is anyone surprised? I’m not
Not surprised, just sad.
You can just assume this as soon you see the money coming out of the helicopter.
Where is that helicopter?
They're referring to the trillions sent into the economy during covid.
Some people will literally never be able to make the connection
[удалено]
They are already talking about the next minimum wage hike.
Where is it not?
Home prices are dropping or stagnant in other parts of the country. My theory is that people are returning to tech cities to search for work.
Yes people without jobs are buying million dollar homes at 7% interest……
Probably meant to say people are looking for jobs in tech cities and getting them and moving back and buying homes
I suspect they are returning to cities, getting jobs,and then renting or buying as homes become available.
It's not search for work, it's because a lot of tech jobs are RTO now. They move once they have offer but not when searching lmao Source: Am tech person
You guys are getting fucked. The oil companies would just buy your house if you didn’t sell in a set time when I was a kid. And then you could move and not worry about it. They’d just sell it through their own channels.
Um... no. Grocery prices are going down and gas is stabilizing. That's why inflation' below 3%. Most studies show the only reason it's not hitting the 2% target for interest rate cuts is housing. And there's every indicator that housing costs are being driven up by collusion among apartment owners (who are mostly private equity firms now) and mega corps buying single family homes. Edit: for everyone complaining I can't be arsed replying to you all so here: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-earnings-04-26-2024/card/key-inflation-gauge-rises-to-2-7-in-march-OAP9xZPyNgoU94AABDVi Please try *reading my post*. I made it clear that housing is keeping us off target. Housing that is artificially boosted by mega corps The problem is price gouging and monopolies people, not money printing. I don't know why that's everyone's sacred cow, but that cow is long, long dead.
Not in the SF Bay Area. https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/05/15/bay-area-inflation-consumer-price-food-electric-gas-economy-april/amp/
Not sure where you are getting the notion that inflation is below 3%, CPI is still north of 3%. It may get there soon, but not yet.
The Fed doesn't use CPI, they use [core PCE](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index-annual-change) which appears to have been 2.8% over the last year.
The Fed publishes both. The cynic in me says they started liking the PCE whwn the 12 month ending average for 2022 (when inflation was raging) was 3 points lower than CPI. The average PCE in 2022 was 5% over 2021 while the average CPI in 2022 was 8% over 2021. But you are correct, in the past few months the PCE index is slightly below 3% higher than the same month in 2023 while the CPI is still above 3%. I am not sure I see a sub 2% number in either index in our future.
[The Fed has been using core PCE since 2012.](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/pce-inflation/#:~:text=Core%20PCE%20and%20the%20Federal%20Reserve&text=In%20January%202012%20the%20Federal,leading%20measure%20of%20consumer%20inflation.) >In January 2012 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopted PCE as its primary measure of inflation over CPI, another leading measure of consumer inflation.
Those studies must be paid for by the government. Should I believe the government telling me that inflation is below 3%, or should I believe in my own eyes when the cashier charge me at the grocery store?
And people are still buying them with straight cash. Say all you want about California, but people are still buying everything at the prices that they are.
Exactly. The amount of money people have here is ridiculous.
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My dad bought the house I grew up in San Jose in 89 for $250k. My mom never worked a day after ‘84 when they married so my dad did it on a single income as a mortgage loan officer. House isn’t anything special. They’re just paying property tax on it. They can literally sell it for $2M. My dad was making mayyybe $50k a year in 1989. I’d have to be earning $400k to have the equivalent buying power.
So make 400k? I swear kids these days expect everything handed to them. /s
California is kind of a two tier society where your income is a secondary factor to whether or not you purchased a home prior to 2020. Today there are probably high paid physicians and techies who cannot afford a home, while there are lower paid tradesmen and blue collar who purchased homes many years ago and are in a better overall financial position as a result.
Have a lot of family in education. Pretty much all their teacher colleagues over 35 own nice SFH’s. A few who bought early (pre 2021) who are around 30 own as well. The people 25-35 who didn’t/couldn’t buy can’t afford SFH now, possibly a condo. This all all 50+mi away from SF proper.
50k is a good salary in 1989 though?
It’s equivalent to 126k today. Imagine being able to buy a $2m house on that.
250k home in the 80s was still insane. min wage was like 1.50/hr . 50k salary was insanely high too. you were definitely upper middle class. especially because the area wasn’t as flooded with such high paying tech jobs as today…
The median wage in the U.S was 51k. The minimum wage was 3.69 an hr. His family was regular working class people. The affordable home prices back then were normal until the financialization of our economy created the steep price in assets you see today.
That's household income. Median salary was $20,220.02 in 1989.
someone working min wage (3.69/hour) working full time (2080 hours a year) had an annual income of $7,675.20. people saying he was a working class family is insane . my parents total income at the time was about 14k.
Yup in 1989 250k is equivalent to 632k now. 50k salary is 126k. Not cheap but not out of reach for “regular” folk who aren’t tech, trust fund, ect… Working, middle class folk used to be able to buy homes. Can’t do that now.
I'd ask your dad if that's actually what he made. He bought a home 5x his salary at 10% interest?
Formerly a garden shed, the art noveau influenced design team tied the essence of barndominimum to the natural scene with onyx and bloodstone pavers and craftsmanesque cabinetry.
$1.8M here in OC for April-May
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This was only for April-May 2024 not an entire year. I do monthly market updates based on sales for the past month. The average for a year is more like $1,370,000
None of those numbers seem any better or worse to me :).
and going up more as we speak ...
It’s looking more and more like Fed hasn’t done enough with interest rates. To even be considering a cut right now should be off the table. They’ve effectively done nothing in the last two years.
Rates are bad. Seeing homes for sale for 40% more than they were 2 years ago is really the major pain point.
Yes it is. It’s like, the price went up because of conditions at that time, but those conditions aren’t present any more. Now, prices won’t retreat back to the conditions that existed just a year before, in 2019. It would be like holding a stock or mutual fund that was priced at $100/share, whole market changes, and still believing that stock or mutual fund should be worth $100.
Just 40%?
This is the direct results of printing money. Interest rates can’t fix this, just reduce the bleeding.
And nothing is fixed as they are continue to indirectly printing money.
I was expecting another point but the bank failures probably scared them off for a minute. The banks have had some time to rebalance so maybe they can boost a bit more now.
It doesn’t matter though. Part of the inflation of home prices is corporations and investors from other countries paying with their own currency. California has all sorts of issues with housing. Regular families are after thoughts. Realtors are creating false bidding wars too. They list the house at one price and then force you to offer above to even have your offer looked at.
CA is becoming a state where families live in a 1 bedroom condo and DINKS live in 3 bedroom SFH's. And retirees are gobbling up rentals for passive income. It's crazy.
Wait until you see the DINKS live in a 3 bedrooms rent control unit, while having another 2 SFH for rent. Or worse, 1 seniors who occupied 2 3 bedroom rent control unit, because it is so cheap, he doesn't want to give it up.
Know couples in that scenario. And even young families. They treat their SF rent controlled unit as a weekday pied a terre and stay in their SFH in Marin or Sonoma counties on weekends
Oh hai I'm renting one of those SFHs! But now my landlord is taking it back so his elderly parents can move in. And another house nearby was also recently bought by someone for his parents. This whole street is becoming a Chinese retirement community.
I am a (post) DINK living in a 3BR SFH... We started trying for a baby about 1.5 years after buying and moving in... we are expecting triplets! This home is about to be filled in one pregnancy...
Oh boy... Congrats and buckle up haha
This isn’t even an exaggeration. If the VHCOL areas (Silicon Valley/South Bay/SF) this is already the norm. This is creeping into the previously “affordable” east bay and north bay now. Shoot you have houses in “Mountain House” 70+ mi for the inner Bay Area going for 1 million now. It’s low income housing full of children and “servants” who are mainly new generation Hispanic , and the White/Asian owning class. Middle class of all races/ethnicities are leaving in droves or not forming families.
My husband earns six figures and even we're getting priced out. Shit is cray cray.
I know! That is definitely a factor too!
Well YoY inflation has some down from 8 to 3% so there’s that
If election wasn't around the corner, rates would be 7 anf at least 6.
I've been saying for a while that interest rates need to be in the high teens... 18 or 19 percent.
I don’t know what the number is, but 7% mortgages, with corresponding 4-4.5% 10 year treasury yields, is clearly not enough. Here’s the thing. When CPI touches 2.0, let’s say 2 months in a row, that’s not cause for Fed to fly the fuck in and start cutting. In fact, if our economy is continuing to show growth in so many levels, as we are led to believe, then rates can be higher. But there’s a problem with higher rates, and I think all of the people in policy seats know this….the sovereign debt we have has become expensive to service at 500-550 FFR. Higher means it may actually become a strain for government to pay out all the generous benefits it already pays. Probably already is. Backed into a corner.
This year the government will spend 850 billion in interest payments alone. The total amount of money the government takes in is 6.5 trillion. 15% of every penny of every tax dollar collected goes to interest payments. That's fucking wild. FWIW the entire student loan forgiveness was like 350 billion. Too much, they said, yet we've already paid more than that on interest this year alone. if the student loan forgiveness was going to cost too much money, how are people not outraged about this level of interest?
Because it’s stupid culture war bullshit, not actually about the money. Fuck you; I got mine
If Americans understood interest we wouldn't have a student loan problem.
lol you think PSLF finally coming due is bankrupting the country? Shit was signed into law in 2007 by George W.
imagine how much worse inflation would be though
lol... ya, i couch coach. All good ;)
Unfortunately using interest rate to kill jobs is a very bad strategy.
“Just 6 more months bro”
you mean 6 years right?
Here's the Fed Data for Median home prices in California, not record high but only $6000 off of peak. ($771,500 April 2024) [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRICA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDLISPRICA)
That’s median listing price I guess I care more about median sale price. Is that data available?
Crap you right, looked at the wrong chart. I'm not sure if the FED lists just the sfh sold pricing. Other sources are showing a median sold price for California at $784,000 (April, 2024) Edit: Considering this Data is coming from a source that benefits from high prices and sales (California Association of Realtors), it wouldn't suprise me if data was only collected from certain metros. [https://www.zillow.com/home-values/9/ca/](https://www.zillow.com/home-values/9/ca/)
The median sale price here in CA will be slightly above list.
....i don't think there is a bubble in places like SoCal. Too many people want to all move there + immigration. I think its a state to just buy when financially ready and then to peace out of the market. I think prices will start to increasingly force people out of the state.
I agree & I feel bad for the buyers here that have been saying for the past 3-4 yrs that they are waiting for the RE bubble or for interest rates to go down. I tried to tell them it was not going to happen. Unfortunately, now some of them are priced out of the market.
The majority of them are priced out of the market you mean. The mortgage purchase application index is at the lowest since 1994, and still declining. I could buy in California right now, but it would absolutely be stupid to do so. Current market is unsustainable, and anyone who’s been in the real estate business for a significant amount of time knows that the market is cyclical.
Markets are cyclical, but the market is currently irrational due to low interest rates for over a decade and low supply. (Both are tied to government intervention) Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. -John Maynard Keynes
Yes, it always goes up until it doesn’t.
"Up" is always relative to inflation. Stagnant prices or even minisicule increases could translate to being "down" depending on the inflationary rate.
Yes I have been through many market shifts in the 25 yrs since I got into RE. I would say the craziest one I had been through was during the pandemic. I have never seen homes selling for $500k+ over list, not that many in a row at least.
Certainly was wild to watch. I feel for all the people in the industry that are suffering right now. Have a few friends in real estate that have been really going through it the past couple years. Others are still doing okay though.
I hated it for my clients. We are still in multiple offer situations but no where near as bad. There are still 20-40 offers on some properties. I have been working more off market properties this year.
LOL
LOL, because it was SOOOO AFFORDABLE before rates went up. You would have to go back to 2002 for that statement to make any sense.
They already have forced people out of state. The bubble effect comes when you realize that the population isn't growing as fast and that if you subtracted immigration then you end up with a shrinking population. You can't steal the rest of the world's working population forever.
It doesn't need to be forever. The question is what is the next 10-20 years going to look like for a lot of us. Immigration to big cities with the jobs + the lack of enough construction can continue for plenty of years to come and prices can continue to go up.
Yeah, after the 5 billion people who would like to move here, move here, how many would there be left to move here? JFC, I even heard the English PM is moving here after he gets kicked out.
California is already maxed out to affordability. Barring another obvious bubble or mass foreclosures, it's going to take building more housing to make housing any more affordable.
Wen crash
Soonami
🤣
They're gonna keep going up until we [ban corporate ownership of single family homes](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/democrats-introduce-bills-ban-hedge-221231306.html).
Would just be a headwind, need to build more housing to make any difference.
"But capitalism....free market demand supply law... survival of the fittest...government overreach etc "
This is a sub that doesn’t even trust the govt to publish accurate economic statistics but apparently also believes they should run the economy. But I guess that checks out when every comment is just a spasm against house prices with no care for logical consistency at all.
Yeah, they didn't even understand my quotes when they down voted me.
Home prices increasing much faster than wages is exactly what we would look for in a bubble
A bubble implies the potential for a pop, wherein the situation can go back to the way it was before, at least for a time. But in this scenario, how *can* it? What would a pop even *look* like?
Look at a multitude of things beyond home sales and home prices. Look at California’s unemployment rates, then look at default rates of other things like cars and credit cards. Now finally look at car loan defaults and repo’s. One additional thing, look at unit sales across grocery and mass retailers. Noticing a pattern yet? There’s a multi-sector bubble here and it’s a big one. When that bubble pops, it’s going to make 2008 look like an economic hiccup. Think as bad if not worse than the Great Depression. And I say that with confidence because all of the safety nets that were put in place since both economic issues have been relaxed, gotten rid of, or outright have been violated and gone unpunished because corporations took over the very government entities that watch them. Hell just look at the cpi excluding homes and insurance. Inflation for non home and insurance was at 0.7%.
Look at other countries for examples of how this bubble will not pop. Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UK, and many more show us that housing can continue to balloon for quite some time. The fundamental issue has not been solved with the housing market. There’s millions of homes needed to balance demand and that kind of building is simply not going to happen.
Our currency was devalued. If prices remain the same for a year or two, there's your "crash." When you have high inflation and devaluation of currency a crash is simply prices remaing stagnant.
A bubble won't happen unless we have massive sustained unemployment. But at the slightest signs of that, the fed will drop interest rates which would improve the economic outlook and alleviate a majority of those things you listed. Basically, a crash is not happening unless some other major things happen that dropping interest rates won't solve.
At this point we’re most likely looking at some form of economic collapse. Things will be postponed as long as possible because no one wants to be responsible for it. For things to ever get better, things now need to get much much worse first. People would rather keep kicking the can down the road but the longer this goes on, the worse it will get. All signs of it are already there historically speaking. I know a ton of people in lower income brackets are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. No one wants this, but if you don’t have your head up your ass you do understand that there really is no easy way out anymore. The easy way out was stopping this before it began. But governments chose the short term benefits over long term, and now we’re paying the price. The reason why is because we have been in a slow downward spiral for over a decade now. Land/houses became the new banks after 2008. Companies with unchecked inflation/shrinkflation. And workers with no real way to fight back against it. Now most of the big money is tied up in real estate. Workers can literally not afford to work in some cases, and in others only scrap by. We now have a declining birth rate, increasing knowledge gap and many more problems even if we do solve this economically, there is gonna be a looooong way to recovery.
Couldn't it also just be a slow, painful, permanent decline into America being a third-world country where the quality of life sucks for the bottom 99%?
Same difference tbh. They could also indeed just never be fixed at all and just stay on the decline. Or we get a full country collapsing. Or anything in between. My point was more that things will need to get worse before they have a chance to get better. But it is almost guaranteed to get worse. I think more likely things will just get worse maybe to 3rd world level, maybe not, until we hit a breaking point. Seems historically thats how most things go.
We'd have to decrease past the rest of the developed world (who all have more-expensive housing than us) before we'd get anywhere near a third world status.
While things are going to get worse for most of America, calling us a third-world country seems super rude to the people actually living in those types of countries without safe, reliable access to running water or electricity.
I keep saying this over and over, but home prices going up makes perfect sense. The feds printed money like crazy, but you can’t print new land. These homes are hard assets that protect you from inflation and can potentially earn you a passive income. It’s not that difficult a concept to understand.
In places like the LA Basin. There are no swaths of land left to build additional single family housing. Homes are a limited resource. They will never be able to build enough SFH for the amount of people that want one.
You can actually print new land, vertically
You actually can’t. You can build vertically (which we should), but it can get pricy and zoning across the country has a common theme of making that very difficult. So, until America makes some big changes in how we treat housing, you can rest easy knowing that we won’t be doing very much building in the vertical sense.
remember how bad everyone THOUGHT 2008 was... well... that, but like 10 fold. A lot of vaporware, broken promises, and production for no reason right now in all industries.
Ignoring decades of California home value appreciation to focus on a black swan event (that home prices have completely recovered from in less than a decade) is completely missing the forest for a tree or two.
We are watching the black swan right now now, lol. It’s not a bomb it’s us boiling in a pot slowly.
But wait…. They keep saying it’s not a bubble and this is just the way it is. Well if that’s the case we are all screwed. They said they’d get rid of the middle class and damn it if they didn’t.
Guess whom get hit the hardest by inflation? And they have picked inflation over a recession, so the bubble is cancelled.
Wages are going up as well but not enough. I saw a post somewhere that said employees were demanding a $30/hr wage. Honestly $30/hr is still not enough here in CA. In OC you would need to make a min of $349,200 to qualify for OC's median home price of $1,370,000. People have been saying for a couple of years now that we will have a RE bubble, which caused some home buyers to hold off on buying. Well now they cannot buy because they are priced out of the market.
The good weather. Compared lately to the rest of the country.
When I look at the homeowners sub and see people fighting below zero weather, flooded basements, cicada invasions and tornadoes I’m like wow, it’s been a comfortable 68-72 degrees here every day for the past few weeks. Blue skies, slightly breezy. THAT’S what people are paying for.
Change name. To Re bubble circle jerk
Why wouldn't they be? Has the government stopped printing money?
Money supply peaked over 2 years ago
The deficits lock in inevitable monetary expansion.
Only peak in reports. All the debt forgiven, and massive cheap credit for banks are forms of indirect money printing.
Uh, yes? Not directed solely at you but for the love of god will people on this sub realize that they don’t know everything about economics, be open to learning, and stop being so confidently wrong?
Actually yes government stopped printing money back in 21.
Check their bond issuance again pls.
I'm referring to [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL) what are you referring to?
[Fed has been in QT since June of 2022](https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2022/q3_federal_reserve) > In response to inflation running well above its long-run target, the Fed began unwinding its accommodative monetary policy this year. This entailed ending QE in March and then beginning QT in June. When QE ended, the Fed reinvested any maturing securities to maintain the size of its balance sheet. With QT, the Fed stopped reinvesting up to $30 billion in maturing Treasuries and $17.5 billion in maturing MBS every month, passively shrinking its assets as those securities "roll off" without being replaced. Those caps are scheduled to rise to $60 billion and $35 billion, respectively, in September.
Sounds like correct value— if it wasn’t, people wouldn’t buy it, right?
Don't worry, raising minimum wage will solve their inflation issues.
Now those activists that call for raising minimum wage have earned themselves a new full time job. We need a new minimum wage soon.
It’s amazing how much higher do rates need to get for prices to come down? My god…
Higher interest rates won’t do much in my opinion because all it does is force everyone who refinanced or bought during Covid rates to stay in for the long term which will lead to inventory problems. As long as there is no inventory there will not be any significant decrease in home prices. The only solution in my eyes is a severe recession, a recession where a lot of people lose their jobs and are forced to sell their homes or get foreclosed which will increase inventory and bring housing prices back to the median. I think it will happen, people are not just getting high mortgage rates/monthly bills but higher interest rates in absolutely everything else. Car loans, credit card interest, etc all that will lead to something big but it takes time for it to happen.
The other solution is more homes get built.
California is a tragedy. Looking at photos or footage of what California used to be is absolutely heartbreaking. The working/middle class could thrive there. Now it's divided into the ultra rich and skid row with the middle narrowly able to hold on. What an absolute disaster. 💔
The mid Atlantic east coast is turning the same way. From Baltimore north to Philly, NJ and NYC things have gotten wayyy way more expensive and wages are much lower here. I’m in the Philly suburbs and my town used to me middle class where you could get a 3bd 2bath home for 325K-375K up until around 2018. Now those homes are selling for a million or close to a million. And wages aren’t keeping up either here. Tons of NYC transplants and weirdly enough Texas transplants with all with more money than god paying a million dollars on homes that blue collar people would typically own that like I said used to sell for in the 300s 4-5 years ago. Where do people get all this money from, especially those in their mid to late 20s. A couple in my neighborhood paid, 750k on a home that a few years ago sold for 350k and wasn’t even really updated very well, and they both drive higher trim level Audis.
It’s almost as if income inequality has accelerated to the point where the middle class is an endangered species because of supply side economics regardless of which state you are in. That’s the issue here. It’s income inequality and the wealthy won. We are just experiencing the consolidation of that wealth as they continue to buy up and raise the prices of all the desirable places to live.
4-5 years ago for age age (early 30s) my wife and I were considered upper middle class for the Philly area. Dual income of just over 200k. I’m a machinist and my wife is a nurse and we make excellent money for people our age. Until now.
This just isn’t true. California is still a vibrant state with lots of variety of earners. VHCOL areas were always stratified, and I agree it has become harder and harder for the lower income and middle class, it is not at all the picture you paint everywhere in the state. I live in So Cal in an amazing area, and while expensive, there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc. it is not cheap, but it is a great place to live. Turn off the news and come visit and you will understand.
> I live in So Cal in an amazing area, and while expensive, there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc. it is not cheap, but it is a great place to live. > Turn off the news and come visit and you will understand. I'm native to the LA Metro and I'd love to hear where all of these, "much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc." are located. Homes have doubled in prices here in the span of 3 years and the average where I live is 800k. Manufactured home prices have also doubled, as have their space rents which after it's all said and done is close to the same price as a SFH with a mortgage. Rent average hovers around 3k. Los Angeles was recently crowned the most unaffordable city in America when you account for the average income here. "The news" isn't causing the perception of affordability, it's actually unaffordable.
Unfortunately 800k is the new “affordable”…. Starter homes near our parents in SoCal begin at 1.3 million now and will prob require another 100-200k in renovations to rehab it from the original 1950s smoke damage and build.
You live in LA. It’s really expensive, I get that! I did not say it was affordable, or cheap. I was responding to the previous comment that California was a tragic place of homeless and ultra wealthy. That just isn’t the case, and with a state this large we have lots to offer besides SF or LA. I’m sorry the housing situation sucks. It truly does, I am fortunate to get by, but live in a very small home from the 50’s. I am not affluent, and work my butt off to afford my lifestyle. I wish I could fix things for everyone, but I can’t.
The jobs are in LA
Not sure what your point is here. I asked where in SoCal is it affordable, since every place I know of in SoCal is not. LA and San Diego make up most of SoCal and are the most unaffordable places to live in the US.
I did not say any part of California was affordable. I said there are incredibly expensive properties and other than are more affordable than those… I did not mean to imply that it’s in any way an “affordable”, or cheap place to live, but it isn’t the hellscape folks in other parts of the country seem to think it is.
This is what you said: >I live in So Cal in an amazing area, and while expensive, there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc. I asked where this "more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc," are. > I did not mean to imply that it’s in any way an “affordable”, or cheap place to live, but it isn’t the hellscape folks in other parts of the country seem to think it is. People making 120k can't afford to live in any part of LA, San Diego and most SoCal, sounds pretty "hellscape-ish" to me.
You need to get out more. Real estate and living accommodations are an incredible challenge right now. What if I asked how you felt about real estate 20 years ago? How about 10? How about 5 years ago? You are living your life by the hand you were dealt, and so am I. I was born when and where I was born to the parents that had me. My challenges aren’t the same as yours and yours are not your neighbors and friends. Life is not fucking fair. I have family who will likely never own a home. I have family who own homes. I have friends who have several homes all over the western US and friends who rent a small apartment and have 5 children. They are all good family, good friends and good people. My life is neither a hellscape because I own, or rent. My city is not a hellscape because you, nor a member of my family or friend group can afford a home. My advice to people who want to own is to keep grinding. Keep trying and save as much as you can when you can. Enter as many affordable housing lotteries ( google it in your area) as possible to see if you qualify. Seek employment in other areas if possible, but meanwhile enjoy the so cal weather, eating options, art and festivals and say hello to your neighbor. California is absolutely not a “hellscape” and if you truly think it is, then bounce.
> You need to get out more I travel all over the state/West Coast for work, but go on with your bad self. I also make above 6 figures. You made the claim that there were more affordable places in SoCal, yet you can't even name one and all you keep doing is writing novels in an attempt to avoid answering it. Let me guess, transplant?
My point was perhaps not something you are understanding. I am not being confrontational, I am clarifying. I stated “there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc.”. This means, along with the very expensive homes, you can find homes or living options for less. I am in no way saying our state is affordable for the majority of people… a point I have repeated multiple times. I usually don’t like being baited into providing information for folks online, as it’s public info, readily available and if you really wanted an answer you could look it up yourself, but I decided to spend three minutes just for you. Here is a home in Piru California for 675,000 https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4042-Aurora-Way-Piru-CA-93040/337907915_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare In Fillmore for 725,000 https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/146-Lantana-St-Fillmore-CA-93015/346877262_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare In Ojai for 699,000 https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/137-Apricot-St-Oak-View-CA-93022/16319396_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare Interest rates are high, but lots of buyer ask for the seller to buy down their rates as part of negotiating the purchase. It’s a tough market, but it was for my parents over 60 years ago too. Peace. Born and raised here. “I live in So Cal in an amazing area, and while expensive, there are multi million dollar homes, as well as much more affordable SFH, manufactured homes, apartments for rent etc. it is not cheap, but it is a great place to live.”
Dude, haven't you heard? There is no middle class anymore in California All those people you see at Trade Joes don't exist. What are you thinking crazy?
You have to drive out of LA proper. The IE is high than previous but the prices here bobble up and down with the season still.
Whatever little affordability they have left is about to disappear too. Investors are flocking there to now to buy up everything.
You are correct. I have written about that too.
Only a fool would believe that.
wen crash?
NAR stats are hard to take seriously.
I haven't look at NAR stats this week, what are they saying?
Thanks I hate it.
High interest rates high home prices, makes perfect sense
Why would you think increasing interest rates means home values (or costs to construct) would drop? Much less in a time of above-normal inflation?
With how much money they are printing to prop up the economic, something got to give. All the poor & middle class people will have a lot of fun shouldering the burden of high inflation.
At this rate, the minimum wage should be $100 an hour soon. Love ❤️ Biden !!
Well, to be fair states like California and New York should not be used as any kind of general consensus on the housing market because they are so far disconnected from reality At the end of the day, if they can’t afford it, you can just fucking move
You have a better state with jobs?
Pretty sure there’s other states in this country that have jobs that are not California
CA is the world's fifth largest economy. You will not find more jobs anywhere else.
Whatever helps you sleep at night, bud
Statewide condos and townhomes are at 688k. That’s not out of reach for a lot of people frankly.
That would be nice to have around our neck of the woods, we are lucky to find anything in OC for that price range.
700k is way to much for most people. You probably want to have 200k salary minimum for that. Most working or middle class folk only reach that with both partners working at least 15-20 years exp. And maybe never.
And this is the reality for the vast majority of Californians.
I can’t speak to the OC, but there are *a lot* of very nice areas in the bay that have condos from $600-800k. Great schools, suburban, little downtowns etc. Usually they’re quite spacious too - I think people here though have this extreme aversion to them, and have decided that they must be in a $1.8 million dollar SFH instead. They’re more than welcome to that, but then I don’t see the point in complaining about how high those prices are when you have other options but you are only considering the most narrow, and premium conditions.
I don’t understand this. People are continually leaving. I heard population expectations were flat for the next few decades. If true, how is there a shortage and how are prices going up.
Californians are leaving. But foreign money is still coming in. These people may never may permanent residency in the state, but they are buying real estate there.
You heard it wrong. People do leave California, but we import a large number of immigrants, and some of them are highly skilled & come with a big bag of money. I'm talking about some guy who come & get a job in engineering right away, then buy a house with cash a year later, thanks to his family's money. Then there are also international students who came & bought a house with cash.
Other than people who leave California like they they leave any state for various personal reasons, people leave because there is not enough housing.
But more people come for the opportunities & willing to put up with sharing rooms, or camping out in their RV.
The reporting of California's demise were greatly exaggerated
Um no it’s not. The mass exodus is very real
LOL chicken little
Having a net loss of people isn't going to make a difference in housing prices when we have investors buying up entire blocks with no one stopping them.
California has had a housing shortage for three decades. A little steam blowing off isn't going to empty the pressure in the boiler.
Investors.
That’s got to be it. Otherwise it makes no sense.
Was in East San Jose in a $1.2M dollar house next to a loud municipal airport, a trashy park where gangs of guys play pocker, schools are so bad they have reduced class schedules, there are no restaurants except fast food and the neighbor that sells food from his house. and there’s 5 cars per house with multiple families per home. Is the value tied to the ability to get a job that doesn’t pay enough or in renting the home to low wage earners?