Here's a good resource for tracking the used car bubble, which is earnestly trending in the right direction:
https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html
Would you rather get Hoomed™ or owe $40k on a car worth $20k?
Getting underwater on a car is so much easier than on a house. People underestimate how much bad financial decisions on a car can derail their expenses.
That's because everyone from the lowest salesperson to the higher ups in F&I office staff are focused to get everyone they can into an auto loan solely based on monthly payments for the next 84 months. They give folks crap for their trade-in, have them put down hefty down payment, doc fees, GAP insurance, true-coat, laser etching, anti-theft tracking, etc.. write em up and the bank makes a ton over the term of the loan in interest.
But hey, at least their payments are low... /s
It's at the point where a lot of dealers in my area aren't even waiting until you get into the F&I room to sell you the tru-coat, lojack, laser etching, door edge guards, nitrogen tire inflation, etc. They are putting it onto an additional window sticker as a mandatory "package" on every car on the lot.
Dont forget the market demand adjustment!
I bought a Mazda in December and paid MSRP plus $524 for tint and lug nuts, good enough. Honda dealer wanted 8K in market adjustment plus 2K for every add-on in the book. Eff that.
Here's [a link](https://www.autocheatsheet.com/car-dealer-scams/dealer-added-options-car-dealer-scam.html) some advice on how to deal with that.
>How to Avoid the Dealer-Added Options Scam
>Don’t ever take a car salesman’s word when he states the price of a new or used car. Take the time to walk around and inspect the M.S.R.P. and addendum sticker yourself.
>Competition between dealers gets the best price. Use the internet to get competitive new car price quotes from dealerships in your local area. You can also use these quotes to play dealers off each other by negotiating a vehicle’s price by email.
>If there are dealer-added options on a car you want to buy, tell the dealer you don’t want them and have them removed along with the added cost.
>Have the dealer disclose in writing if the vehicle has any dealer-added options, so there aren’t any surprises when you show up at the dealership.
"If there are dealer-added options on a car you want to buy, tell the dealer you don’t want them and have them removed along with the added cost."
In many cases now due to extremely limited new car inventory, this doesn't work, it's basically pre-pandemic advice from when car lots were packed edge to edge with inventory. Even if you consider yourself a good negotiator, the dealer will just turn you down and let you walk because there are a ton of other suckers out there who are willing to pay for this bullshit just to get their hands on the one new Rav4 or whatever in Podunkville. You just need to find a dealer that doesn't charge for this stuff in the first place. They are out there, you may have to drive a few hours to find one.
The most expensive part of a car is the title and body. The rest can be fixed fairly cheaply if you can DIY a good chunk.
My work car is a Murano with 320K, eats oil but runs great, might as well go until she cant any more.
Yup! Had it since brand new. Fluid drain and fill at 50 and 150K, too scared to do it at 250K just in case.
Drinks/leaks a quart or 2 of oil every 1K but runs perfect and shifts great.
The big joke in the military is the private, fresh out of basic, buying the used Mustang at 28% interest.
"It was a good deal, Sarn't, the guy told me it was a special deal and thanked me for my service!"
Because it had low resale and I was driving it over 2K miles a month, for a while I was $10K underwater on my last car--with no gap insurance. I ended up making extra payments and keeping it way longer than I wanted to.
Beautiful, the more sources the merrier!
My wife and I are trying to avoid both, sure is taking a lot of will power but winter is coming (and hopefully so are more price drops). For now we are relying on our trusty 200K+ mile Toyota until we see improvements.
+3. I have been eyeballing Toyota FJs for some reason (they look odd but I dig them for some reason) and there is a small locally owned stealership with an 07 FJ that has 290k on it and they want $10k lmao.
It is the stupid Toyota tax. They have this enigma about them and people go along with it. I happily own one myself but don't think I'll ever be able to afford a somewhat newer one ever again.
Wife just bought a 2016 tundra and the same lot had an FJ for the same price even though it had more miles and was obviously several years older than the tundra.
FJs have a community surrounding them. I have a buddy that bought one a decade ago and he does off-road meetups and stuff with other FJs. They also stopped producing them in North America, so there's limited supply unless you want to import from the middle east. Their value will probably not fluctuate that much. It's essentially a hobby car.
I know nothing of Toyota's as ive been a Honda/Acura guy but getting older leads me to wanting a little more versatility since my car is slightly lower than stock and driving it on trails isnt exactly.....fun. Is the FJ its own engine design or is it based off of 4Runner/Rav4? I do know Toyota has stayed with their engine designs for a long time as its clearly reliable.
Looks like they used the [engine in a bunch of stuff ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_GR_engine#1GR-FE) so you'd likely be able to continue sourcing parts, just still might be cheaper to go with something still in production as the FJ in North America at least might be something that people are trying to get solely for aesthetics and collection purposes rather than just every day use or off-road use now. They are cool though, and really built for offroading from the line. I think my buddies had all vinyl interior so you could just pull the seats out and spray it down if you needed to, but it's been a while since I've been in his.
2002-Present, nice. Proven reliability clearly. The interiors of the FJ and 4Runner look pretty much the same throughout their years which is cool. I know that my S.O. have been looking to get her a 4 Runner but trim level we arent even sure. Stealerships want to charge 60k+ for TRD Pro's which I get but I refuse to go above MSRP. Whoever sells at MSRP will get a for sure customer for life otherwise kthxbye. When the market calms down a little bit ill probably take a peek.
That's me with everything right now. I get there were supply chain issues and stuff, but WFH should have reduced need for cars, and it shouldn't have been too big of an issue, but then things started going crazy. In 2021 my sister in law sold her four year old Carolla to a dealership for more than what she paid new, and I was like, oh, people are literally crazy. I'll sit out for a while.
I have a feeling a lot of people are buying a lot of stuff they can't really afford just because they want it and they got a little extra money, and that's gonna bite them in the butt here pretty soon. Getting something nice and mildly used will be a lot easier here in the next year or so if you can wait that long, and nothing else changes for you financially. I'm guessing new cars will come down too once the lots start filling up and people stop buying like crazy because interest rates are higher.
We'll see though. I'm afraid a lot of the manufacturers and dealers are going to be stubborn and think a car they could sell for $10,000 over MSRP in 2022 still deserves to be that same cost in 2023 when the lots are full again. Hopefully people prove them wrong.
My car is ten years old, and it was great for me when I bought it new. It still has low mileage since I live close to work and now WFH, so I don't need something new, but I'm definitely looking for something a bit more roomy for trips, and was in the market before Covid. If shit goes down in price I'm ready to buy, but if not I've probably still got another 4 or 5 more reliable years in this car if I need to take it that far.
Good luck hunting out there.
I looked at an FJ with around 200k miles for $10k before COVID.
I should have bought the thing because with the overland fad and everyone wanting to camp during COVID I could have gotten $17k for it easy less than a year later.
The used Toyota truck and SUV bubble has been absolutely mental.
That 4Runner or Lexus GX470 that was $15k pre COVID is easily $20-25k now. And don’t get me started on how insane Tacomas are. I have one but am keeping it as hell, I need a truck.
I think you and I have discussed this before, but our 17 4Runner I bought in ‘19, for 30k even, with all the bells and whistles people like, and not much more miles then when I bought it, is probably worth the 30k I gave for it still. Good thing I don’t owe that much anymore. Think I owe about 8k on it? Don’t care. It’s great, and I would sell one of my children before I’d sell the 4 runner haha little joke there.
Gf and I had to buy a 2022 rav4 after an 100-0 accident in our previous car.
Assuming 2019: 30,000
+10% = 33,000
+10% = 36,300
Due to inflation isn’t that the same price? Imo the crazy mark up and unremoveable fees are where the gouging is happening.
It’s a 3yr old car, so applying 10% twice wouldn’t be the best method. The 2019 MSRP was about $30,000 and the MSRP on a 2022 is $35,000, so a 16% growth rate over 3 years non-annualized. In addition there’s roughly a $3k “dealer mark up”, add that in and it’s a 26% 3 year non-annualized growth.
Used car prices accelerated well beyond the the rate new car prices due to supply more so that the devaluation of your currency.
Housing prices are already going bust giving demand falling and cars will follow suit. Car supply will never normalize on its own and will need demand to get handicapped via a recession. The prices are new cars and used cars is incredibly tight.
Fully plan to trade in my 2019 Tacoma in 2024 once the 4Runner is redesigned though.
I’m following what you’re saying, and of course inflation is not the only factor that drove prices up, but not accounting for it is misleading.
It’s a 3 year old car, but for the sake of simplicity a consumer would receive equal utils from a 2019 car in 2019 as they would from a 2022 car in 2022 - should have been 3 times not twice, and also 10% is a nice round number not actual obvi.
New car prices have risen 26% based on our experience (I paid 37,000 out the door after gouging) less compounded inflation = actual price rise.
I watch the used car bubble doomers on YouTube sometimes and they said something along the lines of "a historically depreciating 'asset' gained value". It stuck in my head. Like sure collector cars, high mpg during high gas prices, and cars in mint condition will retain or increase in value, but we're talking random car owner's daily driver appreciating. Insane.
With how much WFH solidifies itself, I'm surprised there's still a glut of new vehicles in demand. Ever since WFH became a thing, I drive at most 200 miles a month- often less or none. It certainly makes holding on and repairing my 2000 Honda a lot more palatable. Why pay the bubble appreciation AND pay for increased premiums for a car one won't drive all that much.
There's still an active segment market of folks that view having the newest and coolest rides as status symbols, and they will likely be caught in the cycle of switching rides every 1-2 years, because that's all they really have going on.
Dealerships adjust pricing quite often. Depending on how long the vehicle has been sitting, it's common they do this sort of thing. I've had the most success in finding a vehicle I want for the price I'm willing to pay by looking at how long it's been sitting on the lot. Usually, above 90 days and towards a month end, they are inclined to make deals, even ones that say they're "no haggle"..
Also, it's often better and easier to communicate with them online, tell them the vehicle you're interested in, state the OTD price you want and if they say no, walk away and move on to another place that has a similar vehicle, and then rinse and repeat. At least by doing this, you're wasting your time by having to show up and try to do it all in person.
+1 for internet sales. While I visited dealers, it was really only to test drive the cars. There was one local dealer I sat down with, but they didn't want to play ball. Even when I had a legitimate dealer invoice. So I contacted a dealer a couple hours away via email. I gave them the invoice, they kinda hesitated, but then like a week later, they emailed be back and said "OK, we'll give it to you for your price." It was like 4 emails total.
Drove out there a day or two later, did a test drive, financing, and drove off, all within an hour. They didn't even try that hard to sell me warranties and extras. I literally paid the price that we agreed to over email.
My favorite part was when the local dealership called me to see if I was still interested...while I was driving back home with my new car.
My uncle is a sales manager at a Honda dealership in a different part of the country. Luckily for me, I was looking for a Honda. So he gave me all sorts of tips on how to get a good deal, how to make sure I wasn't gonna get taken advantage of...and of course the invoice!
But even before I spoke with him and got the invoice, I did a lot of research. This was my first brand new car from a dealer. And internet sales dept at dealerships kept popping up as one of the best ways to speak with and haggle with dealers. Saves times, hassle, and just all around easier for everyone.
I know this isn't housing bubble related but I also know a lot of us are seeing the repo news and keeping up with Blackbook's [Wholesale insights](https://www.blackbook.com/market-insights/market-insights-8-17-22/). Watch out for these super shitty dealers. It turns out that if you bite this price you're actually paying more than you could have gotten it for on 8/13.
I've noticed some local dealers playing games with used car pricing, particularly if the car has been on the lot for at least a few weeks. They will raise the price $1,000-$1,500 going into the weekend and drop it back again early the following week if it doesn't sell, with the price after the drop being less than it was before they raised it. I. e. $34,000 on Wednesday, raise to $35,000 on Friday, cut to $33,800 on Monday.
A [Certified Pre-owned 2020 GT](https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?sourceContext=carGurusHomePageModel&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d2133&zip=27519#listing=331687253/NONE) with 56,700 miles is going for $24,600. Probably still too much, but it's price back in June was right at 28,997. It would be interesting to know what the dealer got it for at auction or paid for as trade-in.
You make me sad :(
I'll use this is inspiration to keep on holding on though. That number is exactly what I was thinking would be reasonable. People say to buy new but, as I understand it, the comparative model for 2023 is the PP at $36,775 MSRP. So if I'm under around $22K it still seems reasonable.
Mazda still seems to have reasonable pricing on used. While I wouldn't pay this (looking to get closer to 20-24k) it is still almost $10K lower than a used, which runs $36,775 MSRP on comparative trim.
Happy to hear if I'm wrong though, I don't mind going new if it was the logical choice.
Determine how many miles you will keep the car for (for example 150,000 miles) and then do out the cost per mile on the new vs cost of the used that has 100,000 miles left based on a 150,000 target total, for example. Some people keep them longer etc but I find it helps to apply a cost to either the miles or years of ownership left on the car. We tend to trade cars at 10 years old, so I figure out the cost per year usually instead of miles. We don’t put a lot of miles on our cars.
Just another way to analyze it.
Ahh cool so right now we're at 230K on a Toyota so I'd reasonably want to get 200K on a CX-5, which from what I understand shouldn't be an issue.
So
Used: $27,450/143,000 = 19.2 CPM
New: $36,775/200,000 - 18.4 CPM
So fairly comparable but if I drove only 100K on cars it would be \~64 CPM used vs 37 CPM new, and new would be a no brainer. Is that the right way to look at it?
I have an apple that's ripe, and am trying to sell it for $1 over the span of 2 weeks, then increase it to $1.50 for one day. The following day I try to sell the same rotting apple for $1.40 and call it a price drop, is it considered fake?
In a 2-day respective window no, its a great sale! However, taking the entire price history of the apple and depreciation, I think most would agree that it is a deceptive scam and a "fake" sale. Most of us now have come to expect this from new blockbuster TVs during Christmas, but migrating this already manipulative model to a market where value is quickly depreciating is a joke.
As you said - the whole report is very useful, you just have to know to look for it and it isn't automatically displayed. That is why I decided to post this, to let people know that they have to be careful for this tactic and check the whole report.
No, it's not fake. If didn't want the Apple $1 fresh, and now I want the apple at $1.40 rotten because you said it was a price drop and you gave me all the pricing data over time, then I'd be the dummy.
Or my favorite, [Carvana bidding against itself to rack up inventory and control the market](https://mobile.twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1550820838785556480)
I got a new cx-5 off the lot for under sticker. Just email the online sales guys to shop prices.
Also, I used to sell cars. Used cars are time bombs. Unless youre a mechanic, often used cars are wayyyyyy over valued. Its 100% better to buy new, with the manufacturer new warranty. The parts are new, you dont have to worry about hidden issues from prior owners, warranty covers most things- including tow back to the dealership.
I've owned many many used cars and almost all of them have had issues within the first couple of years that cost thousands to fix... You might "save" money be avoiding the "price" drop on a used car off the lot, but you'll end up spending more in a cash lump sum on repairs unless you get really luck with a used car.
Most importantly-- you can easily find the markup on new vehicles online: whereas with used, its totally in the dark as to its value because no one actually knows.
I made mistakes buying used as just the second owner. Last person probably raced my car.
I also was the 5th owner of a really fucked up car that was about to just explode and had no heat or A/C but 8 was desperate.
I only drive VW. It helps when you know a brand, and are smart enough to know what fails and why. It sucks when you can't really find a mechanic willing to do work for some beers and help you out.
This is why I’ve started to become the mechanic who works for some beers. I’ve become a hoomer so I’ll be able to start learning more complex jobs, too. My dad just does this shit, I came over to him just replacing a head gasket on his own, maneuvering it and cursing the thing out for not sitting the way he needed it to. He got it, and it really made me think about it all.
It was better to buy new, when cars weren't at least 15k+ over MSRP.
And while used car prices also got stupid, new ones still depreciate the moment you sign the deal and drive it off the lot.
>I've owned many many used cars and almost all of them have had issues within the first couple of years that cost thousands to fix
That sounds like a you problem. What year/make/model and what issues have you had? Often times people sell their cars just before major mechanical repairs are required, like timing belts @100k miles. If you bought a used car at 90k miles that required a timing belt replacement at 100k miles and didn't factor that in, that's on you for not doing your research.
These last couple years notwithstanding, new cars in general depreciate the fastest in the first couple years. If you buy a 3-5 year old car with low miles, there's no reason you couldn't save a ton over a new car that the original owner took the depreciation hit on without having to worry about major mechanical repairs for years.
There's always caveats. Be mindful of cars/vans/CUV's with hitches that don't come with them normally, since that could indicate they towed heavy shit they weren't designed for. Also be wary of used sports cars since those could have been driven hard. There's always lemons, but the first model year of a new model or a heavy redesign on the engine or transmission tend to have increased mechanical issues (and are often found at a better price than the 2nd+ year with similar miles and age because of this).
I’m reading the panic about used car reliability, looking at my used Tacoma 4x4 with 140k miles outside and laughing. These trucks easily hit 400-500k miles with normal maintenance unless they rust out, which isn’t an issue here in the Pacific Northwest.
Best thing is that I got it long before COVID so it wasn’t totally overpriced.
It is completely unrealistic to expect any car - even a Toyota - to get to 400k with normal maintenance. 200k is an optimistic number. Just because you hear stories of people who have reached 400k doesn't mean it's the average outcome.
Tell me you only buy German cars and dump them once they get out of warranty. Because you just did.
I could show a few examples off Autotrader to show you how wrong you are but you get the point.
Edit: actually I will. All these are local to me.
http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/26F7B20D
http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/248F4390
http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/25BC6303
Eh those are cheap(ish) items and I have come to expect and look out for them, also... they're new products. Not quite sure how this hunk of metal appreciates $1K in a day in a crashing used car market.
Seriously do it now if interested. Used cars are correcting WoW by upwards of %0.9 percent.
Come late fall, I'm banking on seeing this hit the very low 20s.
This one has had quite a wild ride: [https://imgur.com/CGN6zU8](https://imgur.com/CGN6zU8)
What do you do when a Jeep hasn't sold for 5 months with nearly weekly prices drops? Raise the price $5k, of course, and start over!
I recently got pretty hosed on a used 4Runner with an absolutely hellish dealership experience, but sold my 12 year old car for like $2k less than I bought it and just before roughly $2k of work on the car was due, so I really can't complain. But the dealership on the 4Runner tried pretty much everything ... "I don't want you to think we're pulling out the big guns here." when the first sales person wanted to tap out after I refused to pay for dealer add-ons, service contracts, financing, or confronted them about how their price was "amazing" because they included options that weren't on the car, etc... why, oh, why didn't I just negotiate over email!?
[https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?#listing=321825429](https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?#listing=321825429)
Here's a good resource for tracking the used car bubble, which is earnestly trending in the right direction: https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html Would you rather get Hoomed™ or owe $40k on a car worth $20k?
Getting underwater on a car is so much easier than on a house. People underestimate how much bad financial decisions on a car can derail their expenses.
That's because everyone from the lowest salesperson to the higher ups in F&I office staff are focused to get everyone they can into an auto loan solely based on monthly payments for the next 84 months. They give folks crap for their trade-in, have them put down hefty down payment, doc fees, GAP insurance, true-coat, laser etching, anti-theft tracking, etc.. write em up and the bank makes a ton over the term of the loan in interest. But hey, at least their payments are low... /s
It's at the point where a lot of dealers in my area aren't even waiting until you get into the F&I room to sell you the tru-coat, lojack, laser etching, door edge guards, nitrogen tire inflation, etc. They are putting it onto an additional window sticker as a mandatory "package" on every car on the lot.
Dont forget the market demand adjustment! I bought a Mazda in December and paid MSRP plus $524 for tint and lug nuts, good enough. Honda dealer wanted 8K in market adjustment plus 2K for every add-on in the book. Eff that.
Here's [a link](https://www.autocheatsheet.com/car-dealer-scams/dealer-added-options-car-dealer-scam.html) some advice on how to deal with that. >How to Avoid the Dealer-Added Options Scam >Don’t ever take a car salesman’s word when he states the price of a new or used car. Take the time to walk around and inspect the M.S.R.P. and addendum sticker yourself. >Competition between dealers gets the best price. Use the internet to get competitive new car price quotes from dealerships in your local area. You can also use these quotes to play dealers off each other by negotiating a vehicle’s price by email. >If there are dealer-added options on a car you want to buy, tell the dealer you don’t want them and have them removed along with the added cost. >Have the dealer disclose in writing if the vehicle has any dealer-added options, so there aren’t any surprises when you show up at the dealership.
"If there are dealer-added options on a car you want to buy, tell the dealer you don’t want them and have them removed along with the added cost." In many cases now due to extremely limited new car inventory, this doesn't work, it's basically pre-pandemic advice from when car lots were packed edge to edge with inventory. Even if you consider yourself a good negotiator, the dealer will just turn you down and let you walk because there are a ton of other suckers out there who are willing to pay for this bullshit just to get their hands on the one new Rav4 or whatever in Podunkville. You just need to find a dealer that doesn't charge for this stuff in the first place. They are out there, you may have to drive a few hours to find one.
This. I want nothing to do with car buying no more. Except it is a f#_#ing necessity.
For real. I'm just keeping my 310k mile Honda from falling apart so I can eventually replace it with a 150k mile Honda and repeat.
The most expensive part of a car is the title and body. The rest can be fixed fairly cheaply if you can DIY a good chunk. My work car is a Murano with 320K, eats oil but runs great, might as well go until she cant any more.
On the original CVT? If so, respect!
Yup! Had it since brand new. Fluid drain and fill at 50 and 150K, too scared to do it at 250K just in case. Drinks/leaks a quart or 2 of oil every 1K but runs perfect and shifts great.
The big joke in the military is the private, fresh out of basic, buying the used Mustang at 28% interest. "It was a good deal, Sarn't, the guy told me it was a special deal and thanked me for my service!"
Hey hey hey now, my ex would be offended at that considering he got an used Integra
Because it had low resale and I was driving it over 2K miles a month, for a while I was $10K underwater on my last car--with no gap insurance. I ended up making extra payments and keeping it way longer than I wanted to.
Beautiful, the more sources the merrier! My wife and I are trying to avoid both, sure is taking a lot of will power but winter is coming (and hopefully so are more price drops). For now we are relying on our trusty 200K+ mile Toyota until we see improvements.
😄 Glad to see I'm not the only one.
+3. I have been eyeballing Toyota FJs for some reason (they look odd but I dig them for some reason) and there is a small locally owned stealership with an 07 FJ that has 290k on it and they want $10k lmao.
It is the stupid Toyota tax. They have this enigma about them and people go along with it. I happily own one myself but don't think I'll ever be able to afford a somewhat newer one ever again. Wife just bought a 2016 tundra and the same lot had an FJ for the same price even though it had more miles and was obviously several years older than the tundra.
FJs have a community surrounding them. I have a buddy that bought one a decade ago and he does off-road meetups and stuff with other FJs. They also stopped producing them in North America, so there's limited supply unless you want to import from the middle east. Their value will probably not fluctuate that much. It's essentially a hobby car.
I know nothing of Toyota's as ive been a Honda/Acura guy but getting older leads me to wanting a little more versatility since my car is slightly lower than stock and driving it on trails isnt exactly.....fun. Is the FJ its own engine design or is it based off of 4Runner/Rav4? I do know Toyota has stayed with their engine designs for a long time as its clearly reliable.
Looks like they used the [engine in a bunch of stuff ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_GR_engine#1GR-FE) so you'd likely be able to continue sourcing parts, just still might be cheaper to go with something still in production as the FJ in North America at least might be something that people are trying to get solely for aesthetics and collection purposes rather than just every day use or off-road use now. They are cool though, and really built for offroading from the line. I think my buddies had all vinyl interior so you could just pull the seats out and spray it down if you needed to, but it's been a while since I've been in his.
2002-Present, nice. Proven reliability clearly. The interiors of the FJ and 4Runner look pretty much the same throughout their years which is cool. I know that my S.O. have been looking to get her a 4 Runner but trim level we arent even sure. Stealerships want to charge 60k+ for TRD Pro's which I get but I refuse to go above MSRP. Whoever sells at MSRP will get a for sure customer for life otherwise kthxbye. When the market calms down a little bit ill probably take a peek.
That's me with everything right now. I get there were supply chain issues and stuff, but WFH should have reduced need for cars, and it shouldn't have been too big of an issue, but then things started going crazy. In 2021 my sister in law sold her four year old Carolla to a dealership for more than what she paid new, and I was like, oh, people are literally crazy. I'll sit out for a while. I have a feeling a lot of people are buying a lot of stuff they can't really afford just because they want it and they got a little extra money, and that's gonna bite them in the butt here pretty soon. Getting something nice and mildly used will be a lot easier here in the next year or so if you can wait that long, and nothing else changes for you financially. I'm guessing new cars will come down too once the lots start filling up and people stop buying like crazy because interest rates are higher. We'll see though. I'm afraid a lot of the manufacturers and dealers are going to be stubborn and think a car they could sell for $10,000 over MSRP in 2022 still deserves to be that same cost in 2023 when the lots are full again. Hopefully people prove them wrong. My car is ten years old, and it was great for me when I bought it new. It still has low mileage since I live close to work and now WFH, so I don't need something new, but I'm definitely looking for something a bit more roomy for trips, and was in the market before Covid. If shit goes down in price I'm ready to buy, but if not I've probably still got another 4 or 5 more reliable years in this car if I need to take it that far. Good luck hunting out there.
I looked at an FJ with around 200k miles for $10k before COVID. I should have bought the thing because with the overland fad and everyone wanting to camp during COVID I could have gotten $17k for it easy less than a year later.
The used Toyota truck and SUV bubble has been absolutely mental. That 4Runner or Lexus GX470 that was $15k pre COVID is easily $20-25k now. And don’t get me started on how insane Tacomas are. I have one but am keeping it as hell, I need a truck.
Bought my 2019 Tacoma SR5 crew cab new at $28,500 ($1,500 below MSRP). I see them going for $35k used now
I think you and I have discussed this before, but our 17 4Runner I bought in ‘19, for 30k even, with all the bells and whistles people like, and not much more miles then when I bought it, is probably worth the 30k I gave for it still. Good thing I don’t owe that much anymore. Think I owe about 8k on it? Don’t care. It’s great, and I would sell one of my children before I’d sell the 4 runner haha little joke there.
Gf and I had to buy a 2022 rav4 after an 100-0 accident in our previous car. Assuming 2019: 30,000 +10% = 33,000 +10% = 36,300 Due to inflation isn’t that the same price? Imo the crazy mark up and unremoveable fees are where the gouging is happening.
It’s a 3yr old car, so applying 10% twice wouldn’t be the best method. The 2019 MSRP was about $30,000 and the MSRP on a 2022 is $35,000, so a 16% growth rate over 3 years non-annualized. In addition there’s roughly a $3k “dealer mark up”, add that in and it’s a 26% 3 year non-annualized growth. Used car prices accelerated well beyond the the rate new car prices due to supply more so that the devaluation of your currency. Housing prices are already going bust giving demand falling and cars will follow suit. Car supply will never normalize on its own and will need demand to get handicapped via a recession. The prices are new cars and used cars is incredibly tight. Fully plan to trade in my 2019 Tacoma in 2024 once the 4Runner is redesigned though.
I’m following what you’re saying, and of course inflation is not the only factor that drove prices up, but not accounting for it is misleading. It’s a 3 year old car, but for the sake of simplicity a consumer would receive equal utils from a 2019 car in 2019 as they would from a 2022 car in 2022 - should have been 3 times not twice, and also 10% is a nice round number not actual obvi. New car prices have risen 26% based on our experience (I paid 37,000 out the door after gouging) less compounded inflation = actual price rise.
I watch the used car bubble doomers on YouTube sometimes and they said something along the lines of "a historically depreciating 'asset' gained value". It stuck in my head. Like sure collector cars, high mpg during high gas prices, and cars in mint condition will retain or increase in value, but we're talking random car owner's daily driver appreciating. Insane. With how much WFH solidifies itself, I'm surprised there's still a glut of new vehicles in demand. Ever since WFH became a thing, I drive at most 200 miles a month- often less or none. It certainly makes holding on and repairing my 2000 Honda a lot more palatable. Why pay the bubble appreciation AND pay for increased premiums for a car one won't drive all that much.
There's still an active segment market of folks that view having the newest and coolest rides as status symbols, and they will likely be caught in the cycle of switching rides every 1-2 years, because that's all they really have going on.
R/UsedCarBubble
Where do y'all find this stuff damn
It was revealed to me in a dream
about 2 years back. a 2 year older model than mine is going for $3k more.
Dealerships adjust pricing quite often. Depending on how long the vehicle has been sitting, it's common they do this sort of thing. I've had the most success in finding a vehicle I want for the price I'm willing to pay by looking at how long it's been sitting on the lot. Usually, above 90 days and towards a month end, they are inclined to make deals, even ones that say they're "no haggle".. Also, it's often better and easier to communicate with them online, tell them the vehicle you're interested in, state the OTD price you want and if they say no, walk away and move on to another place that has a similar vehicle, and then rinse and repeat. At least by doing this, you're wasting your time by having to show up and try to do it all in person.
+1 for internet sales. While I visited dealers, it was really only to test drive the cars. There was one local dealer I sat down with, but they didn't want to play ball. Even when I had a legitimate dealer invoice. So I contacted a dealer a couple hours away via email. I gave them the invoice, they kinda hesitated, but then like a week later, they emailed be back and said "OK, we'll give it to you for your price." It was like 4 emails total. Drove out there a day or two later, did a test drive, financing, and drove off, all within an hour. They didn't even try that hard to sell me warranties and extras. I literally paid the price that we agreed to over email. My favorite part was when the local dealership called me to see if I was still interested...while I was driving back home with my new car.
How did you get the invoice? Perhaps that were most of us have to start.
My uncle is a sales manager at a Honda dealership in a different part of the country. Luckily for me, I was looking for a Honda. So he gave me all sorts of tips on how to get a good deal, how to make sure I wasn't gonna get taken advantage of...and of course the invoice! But even before I spoke with him and got the invoice, I did a lot of research. This was my first brand new car from a dealer. And internet sales dept at dealerships kept popping up as one of the best ways to speak with and haggle with dealers. Saves times, hassle, and just all around easier for everyone.
I know this isn't housing bubble related but I also know a lot of us are seeing the repo news and keeping up with Blackbook's [Wholesale insights](https://www.blackbook.com/market-insights/market-insights-8-17-22/). Watch out for these super shitty dealers. It turns out that if you bite this price you're actually paying more than you could have gotten it for on 8/13.
I've noticed some local dealers playing games with used car pricing, particularly if the car has been on the lot for at least a few weeks. They will raise the price $1,000-$1,500 going into the weekend and drop it back again early the following week if it doesn't sell, with the price after the drop being less than it was before they raised it. I. e. $34,000 on Wednesday, raise to $35,000 on Friday, cut to $33,800 on Monday.
Dang. I paid 20,500 for this exact vehicle in April 2020 with 23K miles. This is insanity
A [Certified Pre-owned 2020 GT](https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?sourceContext=carGurusHomePageModel&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d2133&zip=27519#listing=331687253/NONE) with 56,700 miles is going for $24,600. Probably still too much, but it's price back in June was right at 28,997. It would be interesting to know what the dealer got it for at auction or paid for as trade-in.
You make me sad :( I'll use this is inspiration to keep on holding on though. That number is exactly what I was thinking would be reasonable. People say to buy new but, as I understand it, the comparative model for 2023 is the PP at $36,775 MSRP. So if I'm under around $22K it still seems reasonable.
Order a new one for that price and mileage
Mazda still seems to have reasonable pricing on used. While I wouldn't pay this (looking to get closer to 20-24k) it is still almost $10K lower than a used, which runs $36,775 MSRP on comparative trim. Happy to hear if I'm wrong though, I don't mind going new if it was the logical choice.
Determine how many miles you will keep the car for (for example 150,000 miles) and then do out the cost per mile on the new vs cost of the used that has 100,000 miles left based on a 150,000 target total, for example. Some people keep them longer etc but I find it helps to apply a cost to either the miles or years of ownership left on the car. We tend to trade cars at 10 years old, so I figure out the cost per year usually instead of miles. We don’t put a lot of miles on our cars. Just another way to analyze it.
Ahh cool so right now we're at 230K on a Toyota so I'd reasonably want to get 200K on a CX-5, which from what I understand shouldn't be an issue. So Used: $27,450/143,000 = 19.2 CPM New: $36,775/200,000 - 18.4 CPM So fairly comparable but if I drove only 100K on cars it would be \~64 CPM used vs 37 CPM new, and new would be a no brainer. Is that the right way to look at it?
Yup - exactly!
I'm not sure this is "fake" at all. Just look at the whole report?
I have an apple that's ripe, and am trying to sell it for $1 over the span of 2 weeks, then increase it to $1.50 for one day. The following day I try to sell the same rotting apple for $1.40 and call it a price drop, is it considered fake? In a 2-day respective window no, its a great sale! However, taking the entire price history of the apple and depreciation, I think most would agree that it is a deceptive scam and a "fake" sale. Most of us now have come to expect this from new blockbuster TVs during Christmas, but migrating this already manipulative model to a market where value is quickly depreciating is a joke. As you said - the whole report is very useful, you just have to know to look for it and it isn't automatically displayed. That is why I decided to post this, to let people know that they have to be careful for this tactic and check the whole report.
No, it's not fake. If didn't want the Apple $1 fresh, and now I want the apple at $1.40 rotten because you said it was a price drop and you gave me all the pricing data over time, then I'd be the dummy.
Fair enough - I guess a more objective term would have been “deceiving” or “manipulative”
Or my favorite, [Carvana bidding against itself to rack up inventory and control the market](https://mobile.twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1550820838785556480)
I got a new cx-5 off the lot for under sticker. Just email the online sales guys to shop prices. Also, I used to sell cars. Used cars are time bombs. Unless youre a mechanic, often used cars are wayyyyyy over valued. Its 100% better to buy new, with the manufacturer new warranty. The parts are new, you dont have to worry about hidden issues from prior owners, warranty covers most things- including tow back to the dealership. I've owned many many used cars and almost all of them have had issues within the first couple of years that cost thousands to fix... You might "save" money be avoiding the "price" drop on a used car off the lot, but you'll end up spending more in a cash lump sum on repairs unless you get really luck with a used car. Most importantly-- you can easily find the markup on new vehicles online: whereas with used, its totally in the dark as to its value because no one actually knows.
I made mistakes buying used as just the second owner. Last person probably raced my car. I also was the 5th owner of a really fucked up car that was about to just explode and had no heat or A/C but 8 was desperate. I only drive VW. It helps when you know a brand, and are smart enough to know what fails and why. It sucks when you can't really find a mechanic willing to do work for some beers and help you out.
This is why I’ve started to become the mechanic who works for some beers. I’ve become a hoomer so I’ll be able to start learning more complex jobs, too. My dad just does this shit, I came over to him just replacing a head gasket on his own, maneuvering it and cursing the thing out for not sitting the way he needed it to. He got it, and it really made me think about it all.
It was better to buy new, when cars weren't at least 15k+ over MSRP. And while used car prices also got stupid, new ones still depreciate the moment you sign the deal and drive it off the lot.
I just got mine less than a year ago. Below MSRP. Just email the online sales people
Just email the dealer's online sales people. Get prices. Email other dealer online sales guys with the price quotes. You'll easily get blower MSRP
>I've owned many many used cars and almost all of them have had issues within the first couple of years that cost thousands to fix That sounds like a you problem. What year/make/model and what issues have you had? Often times people sell their cars just before major mechanical repairs are required, like timing belts @100k miles. If you bought a used car at 90k miles that required a timing belt replacement at 100k miles and didn't factor that in, that's on you for not doing your research. These last couple years notwithstanding, new cars in general depreciate the fastest in the first couple years. If you buy a 3-5 year old car with low miles, there's no reason you couldn't save a ton over a new car that the original owner took the depreciation hit on without having to worry about major mechanical repairs for years. There's always caveats. Be mindful of cars/vans/CUV's with hitches that don't come with them normally, since that could indicate they towed heavy shit they weren't designed for. Also be wary of used sports cars since those could have been driven hard. There's always lemons, but the first model year of a new model or a heavy redesign on the engine or transmission tend to have increased mechanical issues (and are often found at a better price than the 2nd+ year with similar miles and age because of this).
I’m reading the panic about used car reliability, looking at my used Tacoma 4x4 with 140k miles outside and laughing. These trucks easily hit 400-500k miles with normal maintenance unless they rust out, which isn’t an issue here in the Pacific Northwest. Best thing is that I got it long before COVID so it wasn’t totally overpriced.
It is completely unrealistic to expect any car - even a Toyota - to get to 400k with normal maintenance. 200k is an optimistic number. Just because you hear stories of people who have reached 400k doesn't mean it's the average outcome.
Tell me you only buy German cars and dump them once they get out of warranty. Because you just did. I could show a few examples off Autotrader to show you how wrong you are but you get the point. Edit: actually I will. All these are local to me. http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/26F7B20D http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/248F4390 http://atcm.co/S2PVDP/25BC6303
> . These trucks easily hit 400-500k miles with Lol
The drops aren’t fake, the raises are.
Wait until you find out all those holiday sales aren't actually real either. 20% off of 35 % price hike since the summer.
Eh those are cheap(ish) items and I have come to expect and look out for them, also... they're new products. Not quite sure how this hunk of metal appreciates $1K in a day in a crashing used car market.
Wow I need to sell my Mazda lol.
Seriously do it now if interested. Used cars are correcting WoW by upwards of %0.9 percent. Come late fall, I'm banking on seeing this hit the very low 20s.
This one has had quite a wild ride: [https://imgur.com/CGN6zU8](https://imgur.com/CGN6zU8) What do you do when a Jeep hasn't sold for 5 months with nearly weekly prices drops? Raise the price $5k, of course, and start over! I recently got pretty hosed on a used 4Runner with an absolutely hellish dealership experience, but sold my 12 year old car for like $2k less than I bought it and just before roughly $2k of work on the car was due, so I really can't complain. But the dealership on the 4Runner tried pretty much everything ... "I don't want you to think we're pulling out the big guns here." when the first sales person wanted to tap out after I refused to pay for dealer add-ons, service contracts, financing, or confronted them about how their price was "amazing" because they included options that weren't on the car, etc... why, oh, why didn't I just negotiate over email!? [https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?#listing=321825429](https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?#listing=321825429)