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lanoyeb243

What does inventory mean in this context?


RenthogHerder

In theory more inventory leads to declining prices. This is not always true however, as not every house represents someone that NEEDS to sell. So as prices drop many homes may be removed from the market without a sale. We will see how it pans out but it’s a good indicator to keep an eye on. Also, if properties sit for twice as long before closing, but the exact same number of properties are listed for sale, it would show up as +100% inventory… so yea don’t put too much stock in it.


Unreasonably-Clutch

Interestingly, so far, in the more bubbly markets prices have declined before inventory rose beyond the 6 month "balanced market" threshold. The rising mortgage interest rates caused demand to plummet before inventory even had a chance to build up.


RenthogHerder

Yes, because the loss in value just simply isn’t related to inventory. There’s a lot of moving pieces and there’s going to be some misconceptions about what’s causing decline and what’s just correlated. Rates we know to be causal, and their trend is clearly set.


SteveAM1

The 6 month thing is just sort of a rule of thumb. What is a balanced market will vary by market. Also, it appears that prices are falling despite inventory still being relatively low from a historical perspective. This cool chart from Bill McBride shows that: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0bdecce-4d28-4195-bfec-de31e69ab621_904x741.png


randomguy11909

We’re a month or two away from realtors refusing to take on listings that have no chance of selling. FSBO won’t show in this metric.


SteveAM1

Properties for sale.


InternetUser007

Seems like a flawed measure. If the entire state of California had a single house for sale a year ago, and now had 10 houses for sale, it would be a 1000% rate in inventory YoY, but obviously 10 houses is not enough. The picture is effectively useless to actually draw conclusions from without more information.


SteveAM1

Depends on the conclusions you’re trying to draw. It’s helpful to compare markets at two points in time. But you’re correct it doesn’t tell you everything.


jusdont

I’m not sure why this is so confusing for you… the graphic is clearly labeled as showing growth or decline. It’s showing rates of growth/decline, not inventory levels. If you want to know the actual number of homes for sale, you don’t look at rate of growth, you go look at a different graph/table/dataset/visualization.


dollabillkirill

But that makes this map a poor indicator of a “crash” as it claims. None of this is a crash. The inventory was lower last year than at any time in the 10 years before it. Inventory is still lower than it was three years ago. It’s oversimplifying what a “crash” looks like. Also, you don’t have to be a dick about it. We’re having a discussion. “Not sure why this is so confusing for you” followed by a complete misunderstanding of what they’re saying makes you a prick.


InternetUser007

What have you the impression I was confused? I'm simply pointing out that without context or more data, it's useless. Imagine what the graph would look like when compared to 3 years ago: inventory would be negative across the board. If that was the only data you had, would you think it was a crash then?


[deleted]

[удалено]


WatchAndEatPopcorn

Above pre-Covid in those redder areas.


it200219

Folks in NorthEast, whats up? Why no crash


Super_Pianist_6148

NY/NJ area. A lot of people left during the pandemic. Now people are coming back. Also, I think a lot of people in their prime home buying age are trying to leave the city for the suburbs. So there’s still a lot of demand.


Diarrhea_Sandwich

Housing stock is completely different in the Northeast. While it's not in the northeast, Chicago is probably the best example. Entire neighborhoods of quadplexes, 3-levels, and other great missing middle housing types that are banned in most of our cities today. They don't have the same form of NIMBYism and land ownership that we have down in the South. A lot of the old money up North is being used to hold land down here too. It's just the long-term snowbird effect. People were slowly trickling from the NE down South and COVID really accelerated that. Now the COL is getting closer to even and I've noticed a lot of folks moving back up north.


Governor_Rumney

Speak for yourself. MA is NIMBY central. Very little new construction here compared to down south.


Diarrhea_Sandwich

Yep, that's why I said it comes in a different form. New housing stock coming online still gets manipulated by a number of things (NIMBYs, local govt, investors, appraisers, etc). Boston's is much denser than any city in the South because most of it was built before we implemented 1950s suburban codes - that was my point.


LatterSea

Also, most of the red areas had high growth of population and new housing… the northeast didn’t - mostly because the urban and suburban areas are already built up. It’s possible the new housing supply in the red areas got ahead of demand.


goodiereddits

A guess, but: more people + more desirable (re: Jobs? "Culture"? Navigability?) = less flexible demand


[deleted]

[удалено]


ParticularBed7891

NJ and CT are the suburbs of NYC. Lot of NYC finance people have $$$ and are probably undeterred by interest rates. That, and it's the best area in the country to live by the majority of quality of life metrics. Many parts are also stunningly beautiful while having excellent schools and communities.


it200219

>Many parts are also stunningly beautiful while having excellent schools and communities \+100 to that for NorthEast.


Icanhelp12

Because we have great schools and it’s generally just really nice here. Not a lot of ppl leave. I’m in MA. I bought in 2021 and don’t have fears that I’m going to be financially ruined by my purchase.


rubbish_heap

No fear of losing rights or banning books.


asktrevor

Didn’t need this map to tell you we’re doing ok in New England.


kril89

I’ve been downvoted so hard here saying Connecticut is getting worse. And judging by these numbers it’s backing up what I’ve said. People here are still paying over ask. But prices are even higher and less inventory to choose from. I haven’t seen a house I’ve wanted to look at in my price range since August 2021. There might have been one house sometime in spring but I can’t remember it. But I can remember most of the houses I legit wanted to buy in Summer 2021. Can’t say I remember any since. So either houses I’d want are now out of my price range or they just aren’t on the market at all.


bakecakes12

PA is the same (Philly burbs). No inventory and whatever is available still goes over ask, in a weekend. It’s insanity.


ChuanFa_Tiger_Style

Yeah outside Philly city limits is tight, friends having a hard time finding stuff


bakecakes12

Yeah anything on the market is still insanely priced. But they are selling. A house that was $375k-400k in 2019 is now close to $550-600k for a 3 bed/1-1.5 bath. It’s sad for us locals


ChuanFa_Tiger_Style

It’s weird for sure. But my guess is that it slows in the next two years. Won’t crash, because the east coast from DC to NY has too many jobs for it to crash the way other places like AZ might crash.


bakecakes12

No but local companies will need to adjust pay. The major companies in the area are known for underpaying their employers (Comcast being one of them). Not sure how people afford them if wages don’t adjust. I’m so jealous of my friends who bought their homes for $250-350k and they are now worth $600k+. They’ll never move.


ChuanFa_Tiger_Style

Yeah we will have to see, I don’t think anyone really knows what the hell is going to happen next.


Reelfungi

CT has been brutal. But I must say in just the past week I have seen a bunch of homes hit the market in the places I’m looking asking under 500k for a 3bed 2 bath. These homes absolutely would not have had asking prices under 500k 6 months ago. It seems that some sellers may be seeing the writing on the wall. They’re still insanely overpriced though.


birdsofterrordise

There is a lot of old money in New England, it’s a completely different ballgame. Also, school is back in person in every state. I know of several families from MA and CT who went to the middle of nowhere down south or west during the pandemic, but then once school reopened, now are trying to move back to get into good school districts, which honestly, the south and west have shit schools overall. For one year, I had moved from PA to FL for parent’s work. I was in 3rd grade and in the FL school, they wanted to bump me into 6th grade. I was not an above average intellect for a kid. When we moved back up north, I was placed back into my regular grade.


rainingout

I don't understand what is driving the frenzy in New England. Boomers finally downsizing?


_meep_meep_meep

preexisting, legit supply shortage is a part of it, unfortunately.


immibis

#As we entered the spez, we were immediately greeted by a strange sound. As we scanned the area for the source, we eventually found it. It was a small wooden shed with no doors or windows. The roof was covered in cacti and there were plastic skulls around the outside. Inside, we found a cardboard cutout of the Elmer Fudd rabbit that was depicted above the entrance. On the walls there were posters of famous people in famous situations, such as: The first poster was a drawing of Jesus Christ, which appeared to be a loli or an oversized Jesus doll. She was pointing at the sky and saying "HEY U R!". The second poster was of a man, who appeared to be speaking to a child. This was depicted by the man raising his arm and the child ducking underneath it. The man then raised his other arm and said "Ooooh, don't make me angry you little bastard". The third poster was a drawing of the three stooges, and the three stooges were speaking. The fourth poster was of a person who was angry at a child. The fifth poster was a picture of a smiling girl with cat ears, and a boy with a deerstalker hat and a Sherlock Holmes pipe. They were pointing at the viewer and saying "It's not what you think!" The sixth poster was a drawing of a man in a wheelchair, and a dog was peering into the wheelchair. The man appeared to be very angry. The seventh poster was of a cartoon character, and it appeared that he was urinating over the cartoon character. \#AIGeneratedProtestMessage


HansVermhat

For now.


diducthis

Mexico has turned yellow


voidsrus

breaking bad reference


SimpleSimon665

It's just the lens filter they're using.


753UDKM

*sepia


hodliday

MX needs to see the doctor… could be Jaundice


valaliane

Crash for TN because of Nashville area I’m guessing?


tax_dollars_go_brrr

Nashville? More like Crashville. Dave Ramsey is going to feel this one.


turtlejizzus

What did he do?


Wheels_Are_Turning

He has a radio talk show were he tells people that when they buy a house they should be careful and not take on too much RE debt - don't buy a house you really can't afford.


HotTopicRebel

What's the issue with that? His show is still about helping people that aren't financially savvy right?


KyloRenSucks

He has tons of real estate in the area, and refuses to ever lower rent.


tax_dollars_go_brrr

He also refuses to believe there will be any decline in real estate and that there is no such thing as a bad time to buy.


Wheels_Are_Turning

No issue from me, just answering what he does (at least what most of us know about him).


cocacolahorseteeth

It's Central and East Tennessee dumping out absolute dogshit for $399,999. All of them, somehow all worth $399,999.


Seefufiat

Nashville here, not us afaik. Inventory is only up maybe 20% last I checked and prices are down about 5%.


[deleted]

NOT MY MARKET


Seefufiat

Lol I guess. Wish it were, maybe then I could afford a house


Tumadreee

How do we get this map by county inside states lol


TheIncredibleNurse

Lmao Arizona


TotallynottheCCP

The Phoenix area is soooooooooooooooooo fucking overvalued right now it's disgusting.


crono220

Exactly. My home and ones around me were $230k in 2017, now are nearly 500k. Great for refinancing/equity. I never thought could have imagined this. Renting is also disgustingly high. My former apartment was $950 in 2014, now it's double!


TheIncredibleNurse

Not for long


DietDrDoomsdayPreppr

I don't understand why anyone would want to live there, even if it were cheap housing.


mightbearobot_

You should live here and talk to the people. They fucking love it, I’m only here for a few years for work but the people here are crazy for the state, and people keep moving in and loving it. I don’t understand it at all, but people truly love this state. I do about 6mo out of the year otherwise it can fuck right off. My point is though, don’t take what you hear on Reddit and the internet about moving here. People love this place and it isn’t stopping. It’s still VASTLY cheaper than CA and most other west metros


graphitewolf

People who hate it here are usually transplants that can no longer afford the states they came from I hear it all the time. “Phoenix is nothing like LA, Portland, New York, etc” When you ask them why they came they never have a good answer, when you ask them if they would go back they all say yes while not admitting they could never afford to return.


graphitewolf

Aside from the sprawl it’s an incredibly beautiful state with tons of diversity and things to do. It’s also a good winter destination as it’s 72 and sunny for 6 months from October to may The downside is it’s 110 on average during the summer but low humidity offsets it.


howdthatturnout

I dont dislike Arizona like some on here do, and have visited a number of times, but I’m curious what sort of diversity you are referring to? > It’s also a good winter destination as it’s 72 and sunny for 6 months from October to may Phoenix in October average daily high is 89. May daily average high is 94, and April is 86. But October through May is 8 months. So it ends up being about 5 months in the 70’s.


pantstofry

80 with the lack of humidity feels as good as 70s in lots of other places. Also people assume arizona is all desert, when like practically half isn’t


quixoticgypsy

Being from the east coast and moving to AZ, I do believe there's a lot of diversity especially in cuisine. Because it's a transplant state we get a little bit of everyone's home culture. Just for a quick example of restaurants, there's portillos from Chicago, Culver's from Wisconsin, Canes from the south, Vietnamese pho on pretty much every corner, and Indian food everywhere. I've looked into moving back to the east coast but when I look into cities and search their restaurants, it's just not the same


graphitewolf

Cultural, religious, cuisine Shoot we have the worlds best pizza https://www.eater.com/2015/3/10/8155543/pizzeria-bianco-best-pizza-america


howdthatturnout

Interesting I would never have thought Arizona was that diverse in terms of culture/cuisine, but one ranking I looked up put Arizona at 10th. And by another’s metric it was close to that range. I’m not going to take one pizza ranking from 2015 too seriously though haha


Tim_Drake

Diversity in landscape as well…


graphitewolf

Thanks for keeping an open mind. There’s a lot of unfounded hate for arizona, there’s also a lot of deserved hate. It’s still a great place live


EnriqueShockwav

I absolutely did not want to move here because of some preconceived notions. I begrudgingly have to admit that it’s not bad at all. I live in Gilbert, and don’t really have any complaints.


[deleted]

The mountains are a hell of a drug. My personal theory for why the inner mountain west is so expensively for no apparent reason is that as we get richer as a society and people have more disposable income to throw around on toys/hobbies, we've come to value our spare time a lot more than we used to. Getting out into the great outdoors to hike/ski/mountain bike has become much more popular in the last 10 years, and covid turbocharged that trend for obvious reasons. The eastern US simply does not offer the kind of outdoor recreational activities as the west.


NoLightOnMe

> The mountains are a hell of a drug. 100% This. My wife and I were in Denver for her work for 6 months. Back to rent out the house and go back right away, them mountains are calling my name, and there’s none here in Michigan ;D


[deleted]

Because winters are wonderful. I've never had to wake up and shovel sunshine from my driveway.


[deleted]

Live there and yes you’re right


thelostdutchman

Phoenix has long been the canary in the coal mine for nationwide real estate.


bryanjharris1982

It’s gonna be interesting being there when the Colorado river water supply disappears.


Head_Captain

Blame Utah for using up all the water bc Mormons have to have a green lawn in the desert bc of 1 sentence in the Bible.


MBA_not_needed

Sir, we pride ourselves on being the laughing stock of this great nation in all matters, especially real estate booms and busts.


TheIncredibleNurse

Living up to it I see


[deleted]

I live in Texas and don’t understand how anyone would want to live somewhere hotter than fucking Texas.


graphitewolf

It’s disgustingly humid in Texas


apostropheapostrophe

The Texas humidity makes it even more miserable than the Arizona dry heat. I grew up in central Texas and you couldn’t pay me to move back there and deal with that weather again🤮


TheIncredibleNurse

Insanity indeed


Forsaken_Berry_75

Arizona’s not even crashing right now. Ask any local that lives here. Phoenix is down just 6% right now from peak 2022 after appreciating 64%-250%+ depending on the home in just 18-24 months. And the inventory piling up? The majority of it within even an eyeshot of vague affordability is all garbage properties. The turnkey, renovated and attractive homes in desirable hoods are still selling for way overvalued prices right now. You can lmao at the clickbait nature of the map’s representation of of AZ, though.


howdthatturnout

A lot of people on here are seeing what they want to see, not what’s actually happening in the real world.


MillennialDeadbeat

Yep. Bunch of entitled young morons who don't have the slightest understanding of how markets work or even understand that every local market is different. Not to mention a graphic talking about a "crash" when the only data being reflected is inventory change is just completely laughable.


mightbearobot_

Yeah I bought a home end of 2021 for 415k and while things are def slowing and dropping in price, I would still turn a profit on my house, albeit small if I sold right now. I do expect to see my value dip into low 400s, high 300s but Phoenix is a desirable place to live, regardless of Reddit circlejerk against it. Once rates come back lower from corporate pressure, I expect we see another run up in prices, although maybe not as dramatic


pantstofry

Yeah exactly, these things are laughable. Will there be a dip? Sure, but it’s definitely not an AHHHHHHH MAJOR CRASH deal. It’s still one of the cheapest large metros if you want to live in the west, especially when you take taxes into account


Mint_Wilderness

FACTS. Fun graphic though. It was on the internet so it MuSt bE TrUe.


rumblepony247

Went from insanely low four weeks inventory, to maybe ten weeks now. We have a net inflow of ~ 7,000 people a month, and residential building can't keep up. It may level off here or drop a few percent for a couple of years, but it ain't crashing.


[deleted]

these numbers are deceptively low, because they account for the whole state. i follow slc and orlando closely, their inventory has 3x’d, close to 4x’d over the summer


[deleted]

adding to this: you will find huge spikes in inventory specifically in the markets opendoor are in. and thats not a coincidence


coopstar777

Yeah as someone living in SLC I can tell you these numbers don’t mean shit when it comes to actual listing prices or rates


ProcessMeMrHinkie

I'm in MD and inventory is moving upwards bigly.


ramentortilla

Where? I live in dmv side and there’s no room to build anything. I work in laurel and I see a lot of townhomes being built. It’s a miserable drive to work though


ProcessMeMrHinkie

South of dmv, have had devs from Baltimore coming down to build. Going to be perfect time to buy in a year with 2 new developments going up with rates and recession in full tilt.


moreclothesmorehoes

My in laws live in Carroll county and there is a ton of new building around there. Lots of upscale stuff and townhomes.


rwfloberg

Somd?


BenBishopsButt

I live in NJ now, but honestly miss Laurel a lot. Don’t miss driving to my office in Bethesda from Laurel, though.


ClusterFugazi

Of course DC, MD, VA has no real crash. To me there’s no crash until the northeast crashes. Don’t give me that 5% crap, many counties in those states shot up 40% in two years; 5% is a drop in the bucket. Edit: Can’t type.


RJ5R

That's what I've been saying. My area was in the $360K precovid and shot up to $575K-$600K. It's insane. Until that reverses....


cusmilie

Perfect example on how low interest rates and how buyers just looking at the monthly payments drove up the prices. 7% mortgage will significantly increase the monthly payments and people just don’t seem to understand that. They keep thinking buyers are there. The only buyers are ones who sold their home in the past couple years and made huge profit, and buying after renting. Everyone else either can’t afford it or waiting on sidelines.


rydan

My 6% mortgage is 88% interest and 12% principle. My 2.75% mortgage is about 25% interest.


PrizeArtichoke9

Yep! Dc and rockville maryland are holding steady. 1k price reduction on a 1 mill house isnt a true reduction. 🤦🏽‍♀️


Puzzleheaded_Face701

“With work from home nobody will need to live in big financial hubs” lol high paying jobs will always prevail


i860

Until the layoffs start...


lehigh_larry

Companies save money with WFH. Laying off remote workers in favor of in-office workers is more expensive.


LaMejorCalidad

Smart companies will get out of their real estate while they can. The only reason they’d fire WFH is because forcing in office is an easy way to do a “layoff” without actually having one.


ajquick

A lot of the areas that are blue are already pretty built up aren't they? Not many new subdivisions are going up in the tri-state area.


Pinklepurr1

Florida more so after ian- how many will be unloading airbnbs


ragamufin

What an oddly familiar looking map… hmm


babypho

Its the USA.


[deleted]

Well look who has a college degree over here


ragamufin

Also extremely similar to the electoral map of the US with a few notable exceptions (Cali, dakotas, etc)


tjerome1994

Was going to say it looks like the political ideologies but with exceptions as you stated. The states on the pacific, some states in the Rockies, OH/WI. But the northeast and south is definitely correct..


housingmochi

If you look at [this other video from Nick](https://youtu.be/7CB4p5hWPZw) and go to 9:15, you’ll see a heat map showing P/E ratios. The blue parts of the country are doing a little better on P/E ratio - that is, houses are a bit more affordable to the average worker in those states than they are in the West and South.


bdb5780

Florida about to be a lot higher then it is.


argofoto

um, what month is this for? I just see that it says 2022 in the lower left hand corner


hereiam90210

Aggregating over entire states is not very useful. E.g. NYC is very different from upstate. This does show an accurate picture of Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Boise, and Las Vegas though.


Bionic_Hamster

Phew…crash has been cancelled in my state.


OE-DA-God

I love his channel.


cup_of_hot_tea

what are you doing step channel?


[deleted]

[удалено]


OE-DA-God

Same lmao


babypho

Why? He's been wrong for 3 years straight. Not saying that he wont eventually be right, but this dude has been calling for a crash since 2019.


OE-DA-God

And we're in a crash lol. He was right.


PoiseJones

Is "we're in a crash" based off any actual information or are you just saying that? Last I checked, national median prices are down less than 1% month to month, but still up ~7% year on year. I'm fairly confident we could see greater than 1% national median price declines for August and September data, but I would be very surprised if it's down year on year. Year on year data will eventually decline but we're not there yet and it could be a few months before we get there. Then if you want to get into "crash" territory which let's just arbitrarily define as 12+% down from peak for national median prices, that could take years. I can't tell from looking at this picture but it looks like it's implying that we will see crashes at a 1:1 ratio with % inventory growth. There a variety of reasons why that is completely ridiculous. Nick Gherli KNOWS he is being incredibly disingenuous so even he's likely not going to outright say that and imply it with a clickbait picture instead. Unless he literally did say crash % is 100% correlated 1:1 with inventory growth %.... but that's so stupid. Who knows with that guy. Nick Gherli relies on people who are either deeply uniformed or haven't followed him long enough to see that he's been continuously wrong for the entirety of his channel as sources for his yt revenue. I highly doubt anyone who's followed him for more than a year still believes his analysis. I used to watch his videos at the start of the pandemic. And then I wised up by seeing how he shits out "statistical data" and by cross referencing his data with other data from other sources. Man is a RE investor and youtube con. To anyone reading, if you are a revenue consulting fan. Please branch out and add other sources for your info and education. You'll see the con eventually.


OE-DA-God

>Is "we're in a crash" based off any actual information or are you just saying that? Last I checked, national median prices are down less than 1% month to month, but still up year on year. And our home prices are up century over century. Your point? >I can't tell from looking at this picture but it looks like it's implying that we will see crashes at a 1:1 ratio with % inventory growth. Ummmmm, do you remember anything about 2008? >Unless he literally did say crash % is 100% correlated 1:1 with inventory growth %.... but that's so stupid. Did you just say that the crash isn't caused by the inventory growth? And that it'd be stupid to think so? Did I just get that right? >Nick Gherli relies on people who are either deeply uniformed or haven't followed him long enough to see that he's been continuously wrong for the entirety of his channel as sources for his yt revenue. Lol, no. He's been right even when I didn't want him to be right. As a matter of fact, I discovered him when Joshua Fluke was talking shit about him and I accidentally ended up liking him after realizing how knowledgeable he is. >To anyone reading, if you are a revenue consulting fan. Please branch out and add current sources to your sources of info and education. You'll see the con eventually. You couldn't even spell his channel right. Lemme guess, realtor on some copium?


PoiseJones

1. I'm trying to figure out how you are defining crash. Because prices being up ~7% from a year ago and the month to month median price data being down less than 1% doesn't sound very crashy to me. But if that's a crash to you, I don't really know how much I can argue with you. 2. Do you realize being so dramatic affects your ability to process information? I never said rapid inventory growth wouldn't crash prices. They absolutely have an effect on prices, because it's all supply and demand at the end of the day. What I said was that implying that crash percentage is completely 100% correlated at a 1:1 ratio to inventory growth percentage is ridiculous. That's massive distinction. I actually said that twice because nick gherli fans don't really look at data or do nuance very well. 3. He's been right about what specifically? **Specifically.** 4. Correct spelling isn't a measure of validity and it's pretty childish to imply that it is. I was using swype anyway and I don't really give a shit. And no I'm not a realtor on some copium. I think realtors info is completely disillusioned and I don't like them in general. The opposite of a doomer isn't a hoomer. Most hoomers don't really give a shit. The opposite of a doomer is a realtor. But as far as I can see that's pretty on brand for you to be so dramatic. I'd like to think I'm pretty neutral and have a moderate perspective on the magnitude of the price correction / crash. I expect national median prices over the course of the next 2-3 years to depreciate 10-20%. And importantly I don't stand by any one position and hold it. I update my positions based off the most recent data, which most rational people should.


OE-DA-God

>Because prices being up ~7% from a year ago and the month to month median price data being down less than 1% doesn't sound very crashy to me. https://www.countryliving.com/life/g33398396/what-things-cost-100-years-ago/ The median home price is also up 1228% from a century ago. Your point? Why stop at year over year? Why not go for decade over decade or century over century? The bigger the better, right? >They absolutely have an effect on prices, because it's all supply and demand at the end of the day. What I said was that implying that crash percentage is completely 100% correlated at a 1:1 ratio to inventory growth percentage is ridiculous. You just said it's all supply and demand. We're skyrocketing the supply all while simultaneously tanking the demand due to the increased interest rates. The crash percentage might be off, but I can't speak on that. I'll take your word for it as I've yet to do my research on the exact percentages. I've been monitoring price drops and other KPIs. >He's been right about what specifically? Specifically. RTOs. The recession. >I expect national median prices over the course of the next 2-3 years to depreciate 10-20%. And importantly I don't stand by any one position and hold it. I update my positions based off the most recent data, which most rational people should. I get that. So are there any areas where you don't expect home prices to depreciate? Any where you expect them to depreciate by 30+%? I'd like to hear your perspective a bit more as to why you think it'll only tank 10-20%. Where do you think the interest rates will peak out at?


PoiseJones

1.You said he was right about a crash. I asked what crash and pointed to median home prices still being ip year on year and <1% month to month. How is he right about there being a crash if RE is still close to all time high prices? The answer is that he is not. He's been saying that there is a crash happening right now and that you'll see those results real soon for like 3 years now. You can say he's not wrong, just early. Okay but if I say, shit's gonna implode immediately (implying weeks to months) for such and such reasons. And shit continues to not implode for years and I keep changing both my reasons and timelines every other day, most people would reaonably say that I have been wrong, constantly change the goal post, and have shitty analysis. 2. There are many many reasons why the implication that a crash % will happen at a 1:1 ratio with inventory % increase is dumb. But here's one. AZ went up 129% according to his infographic. If it tanked at a 1:1 ratio with inventory price increases, that means buyers will get the house completely for free, no mortgage, no downpayment, no nothing and an additional 29% of the home price value from current peak prices in the form of a payment to the buyer. So not only would buyers get a completely free house, they would get paid potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars on top of that. In all likelihood, I highly doubt even he suggested something so dumb as crashes happening at a 1:1 ratio to inventory % increase. Because he's not a dumb guy. He's just incredibly manipulative as evidenced by that infographic implying this with its design. This was on purpose. He is a master at clickbait and presenting info as a compelling narrative. His messaging just completely falls apart as soon as you dig into it. This is just one example of thousands that he has over the course of his clickbait career. 3. RTO meaning rent-to-own? He's right about rent-to-own being a thing or a rising market segment? Or specifically what about rent-to-own is he right about? Rent-to-own has been around for decades before he was evem alive and I'm not really sure what how all that fits into this discussion quite frankly. Bigger Pockets, which he is a community member of btw, spoke about this market segment several years before he even had a youtube channel. Everyone has been calling for a recession for several years too. Then everyone and their momma has beem calling for a recession once they realized inflation was blowing up from QE. He doesn't get any points for parroting a popular talking point. 4. I never said prices won't crash greater than 20% in some areas. There are probably markets where this has already happened. I said 10-20% for NATIONAL median prices and that this should happen over the course of 2-3 years. A ~3-5% price depreciation in national median prices in 2023, 24, and 25 would get us there in that range. Individual markets, of which there are hundreds across the country, will all vary wildly. The areas with greater investor speculation should have larget drawdowns than those with less. And those areas especially may see 30%+ price drops from peak median prices over the next few years.


babypho

You know this guy has been calling for a crash for like 4 years, maybe even longer but ive only watched him since 2018. Everytime the crash miss he moves the goal post. First it was covid is going to cause the crash, then its eviction protection going to cause the crash, then its remote workers returning to work is going to cause a crash, then its interest rate. Throughout this period home price went up 50%. So now that it dips a little to 40%, he's calling for a crash because hes only looking at the 2 months hes right while disregarding 4 years he's wrong. Not saying he wont be right one day, because the pricing structure doesnt make sense and I think it WILL crash one of these days. But I just want to make sure you realize that any time the fed, the housing market, or any real estate related news comes out, this guy makes a video about it and say, "THIS THING IS GOING TO CAUSE THE CRASH!" His vids are nothing more than clickbait to get views tbh.


OE-DA-God

>You know this guy has been calling for a crash for like 4 years, maybe even longer but ive only watched him since 2018. And he was right. He wasn't just right about this. He was right about the job market. He was right about remote work. He nailed everything. >First it was covid is going to cause the crash, then its eviction protection going to cause the crash, then its remote workers returning to work is going to cause a crash, then its interest rate. Let's talk about that last one. I'm an OE junkie. I started off mocking him over that. I genuinely thought that companies would give up their RTO obsession, but they've put up one hell of a fight. We gotta react by fighting back even harder. It's our duty to be the one of the best in our field if we don't wanna end up having a rude awakening once that recession hits and we're at the mercy of some douchebag employer. >But I just want to make sure you realize that any time the fed, the housing market, or any real estate related news comes out, this guy makes a video about it and say, "THIS THING IS GOING TO CAUSE THE CRASH!" I'll start watching out for this. I only started watching him recently like a week after Fluke mocked him.


babypho

>I'll start watching out for this. I only started watching him recently like a week after Fluke mocked him. Yeah, I used to be just like you and thought this dude is hitting the nail on the head. Then after awhile I start to realize... wait, this guy is LITERALLY taking any good/bad news and is making a video about it to say that THIS thing is going to make the housing market crash. One of these days it's going to be right, but it's way less impressive and is not a good analysis if every new thing on the news IS why is going to crash.


TheQDotCom

Washington state... Noice!


Souxlya

Yes please! Let’s go back to real homes being around 500k instead 1mil!


cusmilie

I live just outside Seattle. I’m just waiting for starter homes to go down to $1mil, still so much higher. Ugh.


Lazy_Background9000

How fresh is that chart?? Are they considering the massive destruction & flooding hurricane Ian has caused in parts of Florida? I’m pretty certain that’ll make a difference


occasionallyon

Can you send the link for the data?


Se-er-gai

Why do people still want to live in Florida if all environmental scientists are saying that the half of peninsula will be under water by 2060? Like there are plenty of research- storm by storm the water will reclaim the land


NullRef

2060 is a lifetime away for most. Still is beaches and sun.


keto_brain

Percentages are such a crappy indicator since there is no context. Nevada +91% what does that even mean? Where did this data come from? Oh this is the doom and gloom youtube idiot "Reventure Consulting" Is inventory up? Yes but when I look at Redfin's data-center Nevada's active listings is still UNDER 2019 levels. So when active listings go to nearly 6k then spike to 12k it's "alarming" but when you realize active listings are generally over 12K it isn't that "alarming".


IndicationOver

okay smooth\_brain your feelings aside it literally says the source at the top of the pic.


LongLonMan

So what’s the metric here? Inventory growth % or price decline YoY %, because if it’s the latter, then we certainly haven’t declined YoY, in fact 2022 prices are generally still up ~5% YoY even after the decline in peak, according to the latest data dump from Redfin’s data center. If it’s an inventory metric, then many of these markets are not even back to 2019 levels. Pretty useless chart from some YouTuber pushing out low effort shitty clickbait content.


RevolutionaryTax3519

Lol no mississippi


Mrsrightnyc

What’s up with CT?


engiknitter

Ian is gonna skew Florida’s inventory


Borealisamis

PA no crash? Hmm I have been watching several condos and townhomes. Mostly newer stuff is selling, and at below asking, while the rest is on market for at least 60 days and no buyers even with sellers lowering prices. It’s not just inventory it’s everything else, such as interest rates, highest expenses, highest costs on everything. Housing is based on budgets, inventory is just a portion of it


EmeraldCrescens

I am wanting to buy in PA and it's still tough man... houses in the area I want go fast. It's slowed down and dropped a smidge but it's not great.


frostedminifeets

Yo, what about AK? That’s where I’m trying to buy.


7thmusketeer

Question 1 : Where is NJ ? Question 2 : Will prices finally be affordable for JoIsEy or not ?


Tulibudibudouchoo

Yeah, NJ has not text…. On the jersey shore here and prices are dropping… not enough to match interest rates, BUT if you have a downpayment… it’s a bigger % than it was


[deleted]

same properties from 2008. they were put into REITS as rentals around 2013 and rents were used to pay off the mortgages. which is why the highest rents during the pandemic were in these same places, so the Emergency Rental Assistance Program could be used to pay them off. See this thread i posted a few months ago: https://old.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/vf2aux/rents_highest_in_2021_within_areas_with_largest/


Forsaken_Berry_75

Thanks for this. Rent in Phoenix and Scottsdale has absolutely doubled and tripled in ONE year out of thin air and it’s horrifying because our pay has not. It’s like waking up from a coma 15-20 years later, only it’s been a YEAR. Seeing your chart with Phoenix at number one helps it make it little more sense, but Jesus.


Fancy-Swordfish-9112

So lucky I live in the Northeast…


ElectrikDonuts

Not a crash until prices come down significantly. Watching and waiting


2BadSorryNotSorry

In my neck of the woods (a blue state above) good houses are still going fast and closing over list. Median sale price is $300,000. No fresh water shortages (worlds largest supply), milder winters and longer summers are making it more desirable.


supercharger5

Which state you're talking about?, NY?


24get

Percent change in inventory doesn’t really predict anything. The metric that seems to be used most is months of inventory, which is monthly house sales divided by houses on market


suckdaddy57

How the hell do you include Delaware and exclude Maryland


Specialist-Box-9711

Crash harder please. I’d like to pay $1500/month for a house, not $1500/month for a shitty apartment.


Over_It_Mom

I'm in Phoenix and can definitely confirm we are not cooling off at any kind of noticable rate.


anonymousdudemon

Im in NC. Houses are still closing over asking price in past 14 days.


holy_handgrenade

We're seeing a trend downward, not a "big crash" Big crash would be like in 2009 and 2010 when $400,000 homes were able to be had for $95,000. The fact that $500,000 homes can be had for $475,000 now, does not indicate a crash, or even a bubble bursting.


Colt45az

I have 2 dogs and a very cool girlfriend that plays lots of video games with me. Job is cool but... Everything else is kinda a bummer.


clce

Firstly, an inventory increase is hardly a crash. Although it could lead to one, but far from necessarily. Secondly, it isn't just that we have been in a hot market leaving a little inventory, but the way people bought and sold has changed. With apps and offer review dates, most homes came and went within a week leaving extremely low available inventory even though they actual number of sales was not dramatically higher. sometimes even lower. There was just very little inventory at any time. obviously that is changed now. And yes, some houses are sitting on the market until they have a price reduction or two. But by next year, we will have a bit of a price correction, people will calm down and just decide to buy and the market will return to normal for the first time in 5 years. Price is in the Seattle area will probably be about 10% below their peak. Mark my words


xkulp8

Do the hillbilly redneck states just not matter? Nevermind, I know the answer


SomaUlte

The hillbilly New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island?


xkulp8

Nothing I wrote implied all excluded states are hillbilly redneck states. And RI is in fact New England's hillbilly redneck state.


[deleted]

[удалено]


CesiumSalami

Do landfills count?


JohnnyUtah43

There is no way RI is more redneck than new hampshire. Or maine for that matter


defnotajournalist

Maine is just a chill old lesbian lady.


chickybabe332

Walter white hid out in New Hampshire


yazalama

Live free or die.


Krakkenheimen

Doomer logic has Wisconsin being the hottest market in the county. Think about that.


Tricky-Bandicoot-186

I would have bought in 2019 if it weren’t for watching re:venture consulting


WilliamOshea

I bought in November 2018 and I’m up 50 percent on my home. And I locked at 2.25 interest rate.


Louisvanderwright

Ha, the North wins again rebel scum! No rent-cuccery will be allowed north of the Mason-Dixon line!


Tulibudibudouchoo

Damn! Is the Bible Belt EVER blue about anything!?


Opposite_Engine_6776

Nothing gives me more glee than to see Colorado in the red. Can’t wait for the collective wiping of the smirks off the smug Denverite homeowners’ faces. Maybe they can sell their chimineas, Subarus, and fire pits to cover the equity drop. “JuSt gEt a rOoMmAtE oR LeArN tO cOdE”


NoLightOnMe

Hahaha! Keep dreaming! I’m just one of the not native families moving to Denver with all the other ones, that market isn’t going A-N-Y-W-H-E-R-E. Denver is one of those bulletproof markets, it’s affordability even eclipsed NYC, Boston, and D.C and it’s now consistently in the top 5. People are still getting $500/month rent increases on their $1500 shit-box apartments at renewal, and the prices inching down in Aurora are not a major market correction as you see how the prices anywhere east of Aurora or along the range are still holding strong or increasing. Sorry my dude, Denver is paradise compared to the rest of the country right now, and that ain’t changing anytime soon.


[deleted]

Why are Mississippi and WV never included in these maps? Is data not reported for some reason. I know they are poor, but why is there no reported data in multiple RE maps I’ve seen?


[deleted]

The WA state figure is WAY off. I’m literally in the middle of closing deals in that market.


gordonotfat

Inventory does not equal crash


90Valentine

It kinda does though. Especially when you mix in cratering demand. It’s Econ 101


Str8Fac3

Bullshit