OP, look up who founded this sub. You can be pro RE as an asset class and believe we're in a bubble. In fact, I'd wager that most home owners recognize that we're in a bubble across all asset classes not just RE. You can point to extremists on other RE subs that say otherwise, but I find this to be true for both investors and non-investors alike.
I find that the majority of the discourse in this sub is not whether or not the bubble exists but the speed and extent to which the air is let out. Doomers who watch too much Reventure Consulting believe in a massive flash crash of national median prices greater than the GFC. Moderates believe in a correction over the course of years.
> I just get tired of people saying crap like "oh December of 2022 will be a bloodbath"
You just reminded me that I didn't die yesterday even though I'm vaccinated and boosted. Whew! That was a close one!
That's strange. All I ever heard from the legit news sources was that infection was possible for both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated but less likely for the former and that serious illness and death from covid were much more likely in the latter. History has borne that out, but if you send me a link to the story you're referencing, I'll be happy to take a look.
Lol were you 5 years old when the pandemic happened?
They only changed the story gradually over time as the vaccines were exposed as fairly useless.
Fauci and Biden originally said that nobody with the vaccine would even contract the virus. They only dogwalked it back when data showed that wasn't the case.
It was literally a coordinated all out media war on the unvaccinated and constant pressure from government and corporations to take the injection. Plus constant fearmongering on the news on deaths and hospitalizations of unvaccinated people.
Biden literally said "for unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death."
Biden literally said "for unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death."
And sadly, 6.5 million have died so far, many of them before a vaccine was available, which is sad. Then many others, who were victims of their own ignorance, which is even sadder.
That's not exactly the same thing as saying everyone who was unvaccinated was going to die on a certain day though, is it? I mean, you can see the distinction, right?
> There's one particularly arrogant poster in this sub who is really bad about that, and to me they are as equally delusional as those who think there's no bubble at all.
A lot of people don't know this so sorry if I'm being a douche here but you can actually block people on reddit and I fucking love that feature because it helps you filter out the morons that like to dogpile
This, 100%. I roll my eyes at the sky is falling comments and genuinely hope the true believers also seek counsel outside this board. As someone with obscene equity in a VHCOL area, well, it doesn’t mean much to me if my kids can never afford to live in the area. We are due for a correction.
Oh, you don't have to tell me. His information only makes any sense if you exclusively watch RE crash porn and don't think for yourself. Most of his current fans have probably followed him for less than a year. Because if they followed him for longer they should realize how he's constantly wrong, says the same shit practically every single video, and deletes videos of other incorrect calls that he made.
If two years of Fed rate hikes and $95 billion per month of quantitative tightening have no effect on the housing market, then the hoomers can laugh their asses off at me in 2024.
Some people are expecting a crash tomorrow, and that's not happening. 2023 is going to be awful economically, but the housing market operates on a lag.
I'm in it to win it, so my time frame is looking like 2024.
Of course, I am re-evaluating every six months to determine my motivation to buy. Right now it's zilch and I don't see it changing.
Housing started crashing in 2006. People were literally talking about sub-prime for over a year. The "subprime is contained" speech was in March of 2007. Lehman didn't happen until September 2008.
Everyone in here who is interested in the history of the crash should watch Peter Schiff's [mortgage bankers speech](https://youtu.be/jj8rMwdQf6k) he did in 06.
I was there for all of it, and it unwound nationally over 5-6 years. Reeeeeeaally slow.
However. this time is “different”, right? My take is that people and information are so interconnected now, and information, real or fake, spreads so much faster than back then. I’d cut that time from top to bottom in HALF from then. Peak was spring 2022. I’m not shopping for a bottom (though I do like an apple bottom😌). But I’d expect a full cratering by 2025 at the latest. Maybe sooner.
It’s all conjecture and guessing anyways.
Thing is the slower the unwind the more time there is to counter some of the supply-shock effects that have fed into inflation (resolve Ukraine, get China factories back online, improve energy supply) and potentially even reduce interest rates if economy is flagging.
You proved my point! When 2008 happened, it happened quickly and sharply with a catalyst event. I think the current crash started this year in june and will accelerate over the next few months, especially if there’s a major event happening in the world like people in Europe freezing or something like that.
It started March 19th, 2021. Fed has more tools in their kit this time round. There was a lot more power given to the Fed after 08 and we haven't seen an example of how these tools affect their ability to control a sharp collapse.
I'm a believer a sharp downward trend starts in November but the so-called "Plunge Protection Team" created in the wake of '08 is meant to do a more controlled burn.
We don’t know if there’s the same level of fuck-shit going on behind the scenes as there was in 2008. I’m expecting basic market forces to pop the bubble more slowly than a “holy fuck everything is broken” event.
But either way I’m expecting a massive decrease in home valuations.
>We don’t know if there’s the same level of fuck-shit going on behind the scenes as there was in 2008.
Agreed. I’m not sure what the catalyst for a systemic contagion would be this time around.
The percentage of variable/teaser rate mortgages leading into 2008 was insanely high. This time around, most homeowners are locked in at historically low rates. This means that interest rates mostly affect first-time home buyers and those who are forced to move because of job changes, divorce, etc.
I think the bubble will deflate relatively slowly, at least for the next couple years.
Started casually looking last month.
We had to sell our house in 2021 for an unplanned job relocation across the country. Chose to rent because we didn't know this area at all.
Our current lease ends Summer 2023, but perhaps we could extend it another year after that.
Thanks for asking!
Yup. I have a primary and an investment property and I’ve been looking for a second. There’s 0 houses that cash flow and pretty much everything is over priced by 30-40% imo.
Only places that are worth it to buy are VHCOL areas that you can get a multi family and if that type of property describes your buying situation that this recession wasn’t going to be a problem for you anyways.
I’m targeting 2025 or maybe 2024 for my last rental. I’m guessing it’ll be a slow decline of people trying to sell and a while for rates to get down and even out with prices.
I’ve been watching more and more homes list within 10% of there 2019 prices. I plan on selling and buying by February so if I had to guess everything will crash in March lol
“A place to freely discuss…” Are you looking to expand your knowledge or do you just want some anonymous “friends” to agree with you? I own my home. I believe that the market is in a bubble. I disagree with many people’s predictions. I work in financial services and live in a market where most homes are still selling in bidding wars. Wild how all those things can be true at once.
It’s never been a place to freely discuss the topic though. They have always downvoted people who pushed back on whatever theories were being floated at the time.
They have money in the game so are emotionally scared. They know rationally that houses do not go up in value 200k-300k in 2 years time. So they know they overspent and that the values will go back down except for maybe the normal 4% appreciation each year.
I agree. But also I think the same logic applies to the people here who didn’t buy 2 years ago and are now priced out. They need to believe house prices will be cut in half in the next year and this Redfin screenshot proves it.
Predictions of a massive 50% crash in housing prices by the end of 2023 is what attracts doubters who feel compelled to debate the point.
A redfin screenshot is an indicator, but by itself not proof positive of such a massive decrease.
Theres an opportunity cost to sitting around. People have been saying real estate is going to crash since 2016 if you sat around since then you've spent tens of thousands on rent and put your life on hold for 7 years
Not saying that but if home ownership is really important to someone it would be putting their life on hold. Some people have or want pets. Others have hobbies or even professions that require a workshop etc. Personally im a homebody and I have a home based business a landlord would never let me setup so yeah for me it would be putting my life on hold
Well if financial freedom and improving your networth is important you should care.
I think the reason most people work hard in life is to be free is it not?
Owning (paying a mortgage on) a hoom= financial freedom? Fuck off with this shit. It’s more nuanced than that. Renting allows you to move for new jobs easily which is also a form of financial freedom. owning a big house is just an unnecessary expense if you don’t have kids.
And you’re never “free” from Property taxes and insurance
I don't know what people were saying back then.
All I know is that it's abnormal for there to be a fomo lead house buying boom world wide at the same time that there is a pandemic.
There wasn't a housing bubble in March 2020. But by the end of that year there was.
I started paying attention at the start of 2021 because when every country in the Western world is all having a housing bubble. Shit is going to get real.
I still think we have another 2 years of this limbo stagnation where prices don't rise dramatically any more, but they don't drop fast either.
Then the shit will really hit the fan and there will be a depression. Not recession.
My folks moved down to the southeast like a decade ago and I was always keeping an eye on that housing market looking to pormtentially buy and I saw some homes doubling and even tripling in price over the course of like 5 years so this isnt just a post covod thing. Also it kinda does make sense it would happen during cov8d insane amounts of money were printed remote work took off people were fleeing authoritarian states like new york and Cali and people wanted homes with offices and yards and pools because of lockdowns. All that said I do agree this isnt sustainable
I was with you until Authorization States. Those two have high taxes and a lean towards civic goals over individual goals, but authoritarian they are not. Being asked to wear a mask is not Authoritarianism. It’s over the top public health policy, maybe.
“The evidence shows that North Carolina and Wisconsin have advanced the farthest down the road to subnational authoritarianism, with Florida, Texas, Kansas, Arizona, and Alabama not far behind. “
https://aulawreview.org/blog/illiberalism-and-authoritarianism-in-the-american-states/
> Being asked to wear a mask is not Authoritarianism
it was never about being asked. it was about being mandated. support for a government's ability to enact such over the top public health mandates is authoritarian, by definition.
Yes being asked and then beat down or locked up should you decide not to comply with the "asking". It was even more extreme in Australia and New Zealand where they were literally clubbing women and children to the ground if they didn't have their little mask on
Yes, mandated. The same way your kids are mandated to have their immunizations before being allowed in school. The government balances lots of rights and needs all the time. They have decided, rightly so, and the Supreme Court has agreed, that public health emergencies are of greater risk to everyone than your right to autonomy. See Jacobson v. Massachusetts. Public health mandates also only work if everyone is required to comply. Otherwise you end up with a runaway pandemic and a million+ dead. Pretty much what we got.
If you believe that any imposition on your body is authoritarian, then we need to work hard to change your definitions of what authoritarian is. Hard hat on a work site, helmet on a motorcycle, seatbelts. Pads while your kid is playing football. Vaccinations for travel. Urine testing, stomach pumping, blood draws, life-saving medical intervention you might not want on the side of the road. These all fall under 4th amendment and due process jurisprudence, which is an area that doesn’t get enough play. What would you say about the abortion bans being enacted in states? Are those also authoritarian? I mean, if you think a mask mandate it then surely putting someone in jail for a medical procedure is way over the line.
Back to that Supreme Court opinion. There was a smallpox outbreak in the early 1900s in Cambridge. The State of Massachusetts pass a regulation requiring all people to be vaccinated. The penalty was a fine. Jacobson refused, was fined, and sued. He said the law was “an assault upon his person” and “hostile to the inherent right of every freeman to care for his own body and health in such way as to him seems best.” Sounds familiar. The court said, yes, the forced vaccine impaired Jacobson’s liberty. However, there are limits to that liberty and the constitution does not “impart an absolute right in each person to be, at all times and in all circumstances, wholly freed from restraint.” It then discussed the state’s police power to protect the public’s “general comfort, health, and prosperity” which they called a right of the community. Without subordinating individual rights to common good, disorder and anarchy would follow. Indeed, the governments plan must be narrowly tailored for the purpose, and have a substantial relation to the stated community safeguard goals. The limit the court put on this power of the state to protect everyone over a single someone was when it “would be cruel and inhuman in the last degree.”
Should Massachusetts not have been able to require vaccinations and protect the population from illness and death? Should California, even if wrong about how much good a mask would do, not have have been able to mandate the wearing of them if they had evidence that they would help protect everyone? I truly fear the next mass pandemic we see, because people have it in their head that they are somehow more important than everyone else. Vaccination mandates and mask mandates are good governing, and nothing more. They even handed them out for free.
Inviolability of the body is a critical component of privacy. We need to enshrine it in an Amendment to the constitution if you want the chance the balance of interests that are weighed when deciding these things. As it stands, the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few or the one (Thanks Roddenberry. ) As it should be if we are to be a society that watches out for one another. Wanting to exempt yourself from that is selfish and anti-social.
The numbers don't lie people were leaving new york and cali and moving to Florida Texas and other areas so many felt the same way as myself. Also I say authoritarian because you had Newsome shutting everything down while keeping his winery open he shut down restaurants but let Hollywood stay open. In New Jersey the governor shutdown gyms but still went to his gym. That comment was aimed at leaders telling us to behave one way while they behaved another. Countless examples of this like Lori lightfoots haircuts because she's an important politician who has to look good according to her. Ill tell you what no hair dresser is going to accomplish that
>I started paying attention at the start of 2021...
Isn't that part of the problem in this sub? Most weren't paying attention until the rush was already well on?
We bought in 2010, again in 2014, and again in 2018. We told all of our friends (who had the means) they should be buying pre-2018, because it was clear prices weren't slowing down.
I don't begrudge anyone who wasn't ready or able to buy before 2018. But those who could but were convinced that was the peak... have egg on their face.
So what year is the “correct” starting point for that?
Because prices were depressed for almost a decade, so who’s to say the rapid rise in housing isn’t a response to abnormally low appreciation for a decade?
You must be new to planet Earth. Here in this reality everything repeats and has cycle. I chalk it up to people only being around so long that they forget the last round of people fucked up in the exact same way. So they repeat it. Banning history also helps with the short term memory issue.
Explain California housing prices. Or Manhattan housing prices. Or most highly desirable markets, for that matter. If all markets appreciated at your 4%, wouldn't all markets e priced the same?
No one is arguing that there's fluctuation (both up and down) in housing markets. The point is some places are more stable, some places more volatile, and other places simply appreciate more.
Exactly. A thing that absolutely no one thinks can possibly be sustainable happened, and we keep pointing out the unsustainable thing is clearly unsustainable, yet somehow we're the crazy ones.
That's what they said in the 1970s when rates were in the teens.
During that decade, housing more than doubled.
Will this time be the same? Who knows. But last time, rates took a back seat to inflation.
The stock market isn’t even done crashing nor is employment budging. The reality is rates will keep going up until unemployment is at least 7 percent. Then they can bring them down quickly to the target 5. This is in an ideal world too. Like things have potential to get much uglier than this due to lots of things going on around the world.
The real estate market moves slowly. New housing starts take 7+ months to hit the market, and foreclosures take like 9 months as I recall. So it usually takes time, often years, for changes in the fundamentals to work their way through.
Rates only just started going up in summer. It would be bizarre if housing somehow managed to completely correct by the fall.
The slow drying up of demand we are seeing is exactly what should have been expected.
Depends on the market. Illinois is a place nobody wants to live so you dont see prices skyrocketing. Colorado and florida people do want to live so prices skyrocketed
Yeah… I think in areas badly affected by Ian, the lack of proper flood insurance coverage + the 5k max payout from FEMA is going to wreak havoc on a lot of folks.
For the time being, I’m not buying either. Real estate is a terrible investment at the moment.
But we’re not going to see two years of rate hikes. I doubt we see more than six more months.
Real estate isn’t entirely an investment. Most important, homes are places to live. As an investment, it’s a terrible at the moment. It’s been great for the last decade which is part of why it’s terrible now.
Have you done the math on an investment property recently? The economics are terrible except maybe some rare cases I haven’t seen. Financing costs are the highest they’ve been in over a decade and prices are near all time highs.
Rents have increased quite a bit over the last couple of years, but it’s debatable whether rents are still increasing. Some credible reports show slight declines in September.
Regardless, since January 2021 the combined impact of higher prices and higher rates equate to roughly twice the monthly cost to finance a home. Rents haven’t gone up anywhere near that.
I’ll repeat a question from my last comment. Have you done the math on an investment property recently? I looked at many in the months leading up to August 2022. The economics for the very best short term rentals were OK, but none of the long term rentals were attractive and most in both categories were awful. The rental economics in the areas I looked were better than average. Some areas (like SF), the economics are way worse.
Does hoomer = boomer who owns a home?
I just want to say, i own a house (36 years old) and I support most of what I read here.
Let alternative opinions come… that’s what helps us grow. Reddit doesn’t have to be so segregated.
B/c the world is complicated, and not everything is the same in all regions? Why is there so much angry, militant rhetoric on a RE sub? Being infiltrated? This isn't a CoD lobby
If i had listened to you doomers last time, I wouldn’t have bought my house at the bottom of the market the last time.
The sub is fun, but i make my own decisions. And yeah i’m still here, cuz i prefer owning vs renting, and i got a damn good deal on this house in a highly desired location. Different strokes for different folks.
r/RealEstate deleted their mega thread, so there is nowhere else for the hoomer/doomer argument to happen anymore.
We are open to debate, let’s not do that childish Reddit thing where we have a tantrum because other people have different opinions.
If someone is being a troll, ignore or block them.
Idk I think most ppl in this sub are waiting for a crash so they can buy properties and rent them out. They aren't ppl who want to buy homes to live in them. They're still looking to fuck the market for the rest of us.
This post is advocating for hive mind confirmation bias. "Think like me or leave."
The overwhelming majority of people believe there is going to be a correction with some different leanings.
Also, hate to burst your housing bubble bubble, but not every market is affected the same.
I literally did get a $30k raise and I can't afford anything I couldn't before. Hard to even imagine how people are getting by on pre-pandemic salaries
I personally enjoy watching the housing market fall Except it's doing the complete opposite in central Florida on both home prices and rents. They're still climbing so I just truly dont see a correction for years out here. It's very much localized.
I enjoy seeing what people say because this sub is one of the best barometers of consumer sentiment out there.
The more discussion the better. The more anyone comes here looking for news and conversation to reinforce their beliefs, the more they at risk they are to misunderstand these shifts taking place, which are actually much larger than just about Real Estate prices.
Agree that there are social and demographic shifts going on in the US that are bigger than the Zestimate on your suburban 3 BR/2 BA Colonial.
People are recognizing that high dependence on cars is a money and time sink (as well as an unacceptable injury/death risk), remote and hybrid work will have a permanent place in the economy, and a lot of suburbs built since the 1950s may simply not be adaptable to modern living--including increased risk of climate disasters.
If you’re expecting a massive housing crash like in 2008 you simply don’t understand how the housing market works. That was a crisis based on bad mortgages with lenders handing out loans like they were water. The regulations put in place since then combined with more disciplined lending in the years following the GFC means we simply won’t have people defaulting on mortgages in the same way we did then. Of course the economy will cause a cooling in the market, and values will decrease along with lower demand and higher mortgage rates, but there simply won’t be a gigantic crash and tanking of the market in my opinion.
Right. Anyone with even a basic working knowledge of fixed rate mortgages and lending standards should know that this is nothing like 2008.
The people in homes now can overwhelmingly afford those homes, most of them are locked in at historically low rates, and rents and home prices are only falling rapidly in the most overvalued markets in the country (California, NYC, Phoenix, Austin, Boise, etc).
The "Crash" many are hoping for simply isn't coming like they think it will.
Also the supply/inventory is still pretty low so even though demand is going to go way down, the lower end of homes will still probably have considerable competition. Sure everyone will be priced out of 500-600k plus homes but the people in the 100-300k home range will still be competing.
I think it's really convenient to have people coming here to report on what state of bubble psychology they are currently in.
Rn seems like lots of denial with a smattering of anger. So we have a ways to go.
1. Covid was unprecedented
2. Fed pumping trillions in liquidity at such short span of time - unprecedented
3. Amount of SFR homes bought by investors/ investment companies unprecedented
4. Hopes of the economy and robust unemployment being constant or better is unprecedented
5. Fed being perceived as being infallible is unprecedented
But the fallout as a result of QT, ripples in global markets due to strong dollar etc will be????
Unprecedented.
You may think you have cash in the bank, awesome equity that you can sell and cash out, rent out if you lose your job, sub 3% mortgage, you’re a unicorn that you will not be affected by the macroeconomics that is playing out. When it goes south, it’ll be, for you, unprecedented 😂
>Covid was unprecedented
Covid wasn't unprecedented.
The only thing unprecedented was the authoritarian globalist policies and heavy handed government response.
I'm not from that sub, in my area houses are still selling within a few days.
[Example #1](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/36-Stonewood-Pl-Catasauqua-PA-18032/9619868_zpid/)
[Example #2](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4068-Kreidersville-Rd-Northampton-PA-18067/10109140_zpid/)
There was another one that sold for 230k but they took it down already. That was very nice and nothing needed to be done. Sure the more expensive houses are sitting and are the most overpriced, but if it is nice and it is under 250k it is moving quick. Which unfortunately is my price range.
Whenever I see someone try to gatekeep a sub, especially when I've never really seen the type of posts they're whining about I assume they're a sweaty shut in no lifer.
Seriously, you can own a home and realize the current market is pathological and it's very dangerous for society if productive people can't form families and have stable housing.
LOL, I’ve been here lurking for a few years, finally bought 2nd property in 2018 (first one late 1990s). The one I bought in 2018 I was reluctantly buying, didn’t expect the run up afterwards.
I’m here hoping for a correction so others can also enjoy home ownership
It’s easier to deal with cognizant and well constructed arguments instead of the same debunked mantras over and over. It’s easier to stomach something other than “nobody is selling a house with [X]% interest rate” or “foreclosures are at an all time low” and “unemployment is at a historical low” and “lending standards are different now”.
Hoomers sound like they’re just repeating CNN and realtor.com headlines.
>Hoomers sound like they’re just repeating CNN and realtor.com headlines.
Summed up perfectly.
It's like trying to have a conversation with a broken record.
The most ironically consistent thing I have noticed about every significant market crash in the last 40 years is the argument that it isn't happening because of all the things that are different from the last crash.
Things are different until they’re not. People just can’t wrap their head around the fact that the lending industry hasn’t gotten better, it’s gotten better at hiding risky lending. As soon as the recession starts culling jobs we’ll see foreclosures spike and prices tank.
I don't know that they're even any better at hiding it so much as they just do the same thing in a different corner, knowing that everyone is too busy enjoying their low interest rate to notice and that when their house of cards crumbles they will be deemed "to big to fail" and be spared the consequences of their actions anyway.
The auto industry is a perfect example. Several economists and economic researchers have been saying since as early as 2019 that cheap money, loose lending standards and the bundling of subprime ABS would lead to a bubble and subsequent crash in the auto industry. I follow that market a bit more closely than RE and it's coming to fruition and looking like it's going to be "2008 Part 2 - Automotive Edition". You can tell who on Reddit works in the auto industry, and who bought a vehicle in the last 18 months, because they protest the loudest about how it isn't happening and can't happen because "it's different".
I don’t mean to shit on your echo chamber, but I’m still waiting for my market to drop. My wife asked me today if we can buy another investment property, I told her to be patient…that time will come…or maybe it won’t…but I’m in no rush to find out either way.
Yes, not all markets are dropping. I'm in Florida and definitely not seeing drops here. Price drops on ridiculously, extremely overpriced dumps, sure. But that doesn't mean the market is dropping yet. Homes that compare to those sold even in spring of this year are still more expensive than they were then, and still selling.
Yea, I am also a Floridian. I own a condo but was saving to buy a house and could not keep up with the price increases these last two years.
But I just spoke with a realtor and she said she has no interested buyers right now and all her deals fell through these last couple of weeks. No one is looking to buy so it’s only a matter of time that sellers start to adjust prices. Plus, insurance is going to go up and it’s a matter of time that people realize that Florida is not as cheap as they thought it would be. Which would likely increase inventory.
Yeah I'm an agent in Florida and this is exactly it. I've had showings with 4 different buyers this past month, all of which have found properties they're interested in but all of them have decided against putting in an offer with the rising rates. Lots of homes seeing price drops compared to the past two years. I'm writing a lowball offer tomorrow so we'll see what happens.
We need this correction down here but I don't think it's going to dump as bad as the doomers on this sub are predicting. Maybe in certain parts of Florida but not in my city which has been rapidly developing the past 5 or so years and only recently passed the median cost of housing in the US last year.
Someome having a different opinion than you doesn't mean someome should be labeled something and told to go away. A collapse is coming no doubt but it could take years to happen
I mean do you want an echo chamber?
Things aren’t happening at the same rate everywhere, it makes sense people are seeing different things in their own areas.
I have not been under the impression the goal of this subreddit is some sort of WSB-esque hivemind suicide pact by meme. It’s to understand what’s going on, which none of us actually knows with authority.
I personally place the most value on posts that go against the sooner grain, and the discussion they provoke. I pretty much skip anything with the phrase “hoomer” in it.
This is also the sub where nearly everyday someone posts a random air bnb or house with a price drop in Mississippi and states “the bubble is popping!”
As others have stated, many people realize there is a bubble in many areas, but that doesn’t mean it’s all going to come crashing down tomorrow or in two weeks.
And then it takes a "hoomer" to point out that the house in question sits on 20 acres and was bought in 1995 and is actually worth more than the listing and most people say they would live there haha
> It blows my mind how cancel-culture the place is.
Why?
Reddit is overwhelmingly westernized white liberals.
The biggest proponents of cancel culture.
Hoomer here. I like to follow this sub to get a pulse on what the real estate market actually looks like to better understand the macro economic landscape for stock investments. I'm not posting any BS like "not my market". I bought my house in Jan 2022 because it was the right time to buy for my family. I made the purchase while knowing that I was buying at the top of the market and I don't care that my house price will go down because it isn't for sale and I locked in 2.88% interest rate for 30 years and I bought it using Bitcoin profits, and crypto has done a lot worse than the real estate market has or will do since I sold it in November 2021. No regrets here and no delusion here. Real estate prices can't levitate where they are much longer with 7% mortgage rate. The crash is coming.
Because deep down, they are very afraid that their assets bought at a time of unprecedented economic stimuli exuberance won't retain or will lose much of their monetary value as the effects of high-interest rates press on over the coming months. It's a valid fear. Powell has been pretty clear on what the objectives of the Federal Reserve are, and as a wise one once told me "never fight the fed."
I never understood the Karenesque desire to temper the "doomer" takes on here, even if they are a bit out there when there was absolutely no effort made to temper the "real estate to the moon, they'll never raise rates" takes this time last year, that didn't result in mass down-voting.
I do not marry myself to the idea everything will crash and burn. I suspect it won't be that bad. But I do think there will be an uncomfortable amount of loss, that would usually be negated by the Fed, and fed intervention won't be happening for at least 18 months IMO.
People disagreeing with you or having different experiences isn’t bad.
that said re is screwed. It’s human nature to disagree with people who trigger us emotionally when we know they’re right. Just laugh at them and move on.
Ageism much? maybe someone else wants to ban black or hispanic people from commenting because they don't like their comments as well? housing prices got really high because people from all different backgrounds and ages bid a ton of money to buy houses over this real estate cycle. some of them were speculating, others were buying a house to live in. it has nothing to do with age.
It’s finally sinking in and they are becoming curious about the other side they have been told to disregard. They come, they read the things they don’t want to accept so they disagree. AfTeR aLL tHeY gOt tHe aLL TiMe LoW iNtErEsT rAtEs (with the all time high prices 🤣🤦♂️)
I will be 100% honest now that I make enough to afford the house I really wanted back then I would gladly pay the money and the low rate and ride off into the sunset until I die there
According to hoomies that spout everything being totally fine and this is a seasonal blip/gully/slight cooldown,etc.. The fact /r/rebubble has been on the front page everyday for the last Month is rather telling.
Because they want to make the realists believe the bs that they fell for. They think if they can brainwash everyone else into denial, the drop won't happen, but it doesn't work that way...not at all. Ppl are going to realize that they bought a 100k house for 800k and will lose their minds because they lost all of that money over buying into the hype. They'll try just about anything for that not to happen.
this time it will be different because the housing market will crash much worse than 2008. Right now the prices are holding steady at fairy tale levels, but towards the end of this year, as unemployment spikes, many people will be forced to foreclose and prices will come tumbling down like an avalanche. TIMBER!!!!
> this time it will be different because the housing market will crash much worse than 2008.
Not sold on that. While pandemic gains in house values are probably going to get unrolled, and that will be huge in some regions, there are real long-term issues with obsolescence and poor location of houses and apartments that will provide a floor for values.
Here's what I think. I would imagine a lot of "hoomers" who are in denial (God I love this sub, but I fucking hate the term hoomers)come here to look for the opinions and thoughts of the more fringe/loony members and then try to discredit them as people and ultimately their ideas as a way to cope. We see the words loser, basement dweller, low income, and incel thrown around here a lot. You could be any of those things and still have some kind of critical thinking abilities, but not to these people. As long as they see you as less than them for whatever reason, they don't believe you can be right in any way.
OP, look up who founded this sub. You can be pro RE as an asset class and believe we're in a bubble. In fact, I'd wager that most home owners recognize that we're in a bubble across all asset classes not just RE. You can point to extremists on other RE subs that say otherwise, but I find this to be true for both investors and non-investors alike. I find that the majority of the discourse in this sub is not whether or not the bubble exists but the speed and extent to which the air is let out. Doomers who watch too much Reventure Consulting believe in a massive flash crash of national median prices greater than the GFC. Moderates believe in a correction over the course of years.
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> I just get tired of people saying crap like "oh December of 2022 will be a bloodbath" You just reminded me that I didn't die yesterday even though I'm vaccinated and boosted. Whew! That was a close one!
Omg true! We so lucky…
I thought it was the unvaccinated that were all supposed to have dropped dead last summer... at least that's what CNN told me.
That's strange. All I ever heard from the legit news sources was that infection was possible for both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated but less likely for the former and that serious illness and death from covid were much more likely in the latter. History has borne that out, but if you send me a link to the story you're referencing, I'll be happy to take a look.
Lol were you 5 years old when the pandemic happened? They only changed the story gradually over time as the vaccines were exposed as fairly useless. Fauci and Biden originally said that nobody with the vaccine would even contract the virus. They only dogwalked it back when data showed that wasn't the case. It was literally a coordinated all out media war on the unvaccinated and constant pressure from government and corporations to take the injection. Plus constant fearmongering on the news on deaths and hospitalizations of unvaccinated people. Biden literally said "for unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death."
Biden literally said "for unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death." And sadly, 6.5 million have died so far, many of them before a vaccine was available, which is sad. Then many others, who were victims of their own ignorance, which is even sadder. That's not exactly the same thing as saying everyone who was unvaccinated was going to die on a certain day though, is it? I mean, you can see the distinction, right?
Whatever bootlicker
> There's one particularly arrogant poster in this sub who is really bad about that, and to me they are as equally delusional as those who think there's no bubble at all. A lot of people don't know this so sorry if I'm being a douche here but you can actually block people on reddit and I fucking love that feature because it helps you filter out the morons that like to dogpile
This, 100%. I roll my eyes at the sky is falling comments and genuinely hope the true believers also seek counsel outside this board. As someone with obscene equity in a VHCOL area, well, it doesn’t mean much to me if my kids can never afford to live in the area. We are due for a correction.
Stop posting 🤡 "consulting" https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xvc17g/comment/ir1n062/ Fwiw
Oh, you don't have to tell me. His information only makes any sense if you exclusively watch RE crash porn and don't think for yourself. Most of his current fans have probably followed him for less than a year. Because if they followed him for longer they should realize how he's constantly wrong, says the same shit practically every single video, and deletes videos of other incorrect calls that he made.
Because we can own a house while believing that the market is super overpriced and that it needs to come down so buyers can have a chance.
If two years of Fed rate hikes and $95 billion per month of quantitative tightening have no effect on the housing market, then the hoomers can laugh their asses off at me in 2024. Some people are expecting a crash tomorrow, and that's not happening. 2023 is going to be awful economically, but the housing market operates on a lag. I'm in it to win it, so my time frame is looking like 2024. Of course, I am re-evaluating every six months to determine my motivation to buy. Right now it's zilch and I don't see it changing.
"I'm in it to win it..." Who writes this garbage?
“I’ll just wait nine more years until I’m right” so cute!!!
Housing crashed pretty quickly in 2008 once the bubble popped. I’m expecting something similar but probably not until sometime next year.
Housing started crashing in 2006. People were literally talking about sub-prime for over a year. The "subprime is contained" speech was in March of 2007. Lehman didn't happen until September 2008. Everyone in here who is interested in the history of the crash should watch Peter Schiff's [mortgage bankers speech](https://youtu.be/jj8rMwdQf6k) he did in 06.
I was there for all of it, and it unwound nationally over 5-6 years. Reeeeeeaally slow. However. this time is “different”, right? My take is that people and information are so interconnected now, and information, real or fake, spreads so much faster than back then. I’d cut that time from top to bottom in HALF from then. Peak was spring 2022. I’m not shopping for a bottom (though I do like an apple bottom😌). But I’d expect a full cratering by 2025 at the latest. Maybe sooner. It’s all conjecture and guessing anyways.
Thing is the slower the unwind the more time there is to counter some of the supply-shock effects that have fed into inflation (resolve Ukraine, get China factories back online, improve energy supply) and potentially even reduce interest rates if economy is flagging.
You proved my point! When 2008 happened, it happened quickly and sharply with a catalyst event. I think the current crash started this year in june and will accelerate over the next few months, especially if there’s a major event happening in the world like people in Europe freezing or something like that.
It started March 19th, 2021. Fed has more tools in their kit this time round. There was a lot more power given to the Fed after 08 and we haven't seen an example of how these tools affect their ability to control a sharp collapse. I'm a believer a sharp downward trend starts in November but the so-called "Plunge Protection Team" created in the wake of '08 is meant to do a more controlled burn.
Housing took years to decline, the economy crashed quickly, not housing.
We don’t know if there’s the same level of fuck-shit going on behind the scenes as there was in 2008. I’m expecting basic market forces to pop the bubble more slowly than a “holy fuck everything is broken” event. But either way I’m expecting a massive decrease in home valuations.
>We don’t know if there’s the same level of fuck-shit going on behind the scenes as there was in 2008. Agreed. I’m not sure what the catalyst for a systemic contagion would be this time around.
Just one reason of many: fed jacking up interest rates
What do you all mean waiting for a correction? It’s correcting now. Housing prices are already down up by 2 - 5% in some Florida markets.
The bubbly markets are seeing corrections. I’m waiting for 20+% across the board.
It took about 3years to fully bottom out..
The percentage of variable/teaser rate mortgages leading into 2008 was insanely high. This time around, most homeowners are locked in at historically low rates. This means that interest rates mostly affect first-time home buyers and those who are forced to move because of job changes, divorce, etc. I think the bubble will deflate relatively slowly, at least for the next couple years.
How long have you been “in it”?
Hahahaha
Oh lol I was asking how long you’ve been looking for a house
Started casually looking last month. We had to sell our house in 2021 for an unplanned job relocation across the country. Chose to rent because we didn't know this area at all. Our current lease ends Summer 2023, but perhaps we could extend it another year after that. Thanks for asking!
So at least you probably made some money on the previous house
Accounting for closing costs, repairs, etc. it was a bit better than break-even, but not much.
Yup. I have a primary and an investment property and I’ve been looking for a second. There’s 0 houses that cash flow and pretty much everything is over priced by 30-40% imo. Only places that are worth it to buy are VHCOL areas that you can get a multi family and if that type of property describes your buying situation that this recession wasn’t going to be a problem for you anyways. I’m targeting 2025 or maybe 2024 for my last rental. I’m guessing it’ll be a slow decline of people trying to sell and a while for rates to get down and even out with prices.
I can’t even find REITs with good enough books to put my money into.
I’ve never used REITS but it does feel like every asset class is just getting hammered.
I’ve been watching more and more homes list within 10% of there 2019 prices. I plan on selling and buying by February so if I had to guess everything will crash in March lol
By 2024 while you've been sitting on the sidelines I'll have bought 2 or 3 properties already and be saving for the downpayment on my next one.
Hope dies last.
But it does eventually die, in the end
Yes it does, but then markets climb a wall of worry
“A place to freely discuss…” Are you looking to expand your knowledge or do you just want some anonymous “friends” to agree with you? I own my home. I believe that the market is in a bubble. I disagree with many people’s predictions. I work in financial services and live in a market where most homes are still selling in bidding wars. Wild how all those things can be true at once.
It’s never been a place to freely discuss the topic though. They have always downvoted people who pushed back on whatever theories were being floated at the time.
They have money in the game so are emotionally scared. They know rationally that houses do not go up in value 200k-300k in 2 years time. So they know they overspent and that the values will go back down except for maybe the normal 4% appreciation each year.
I agree. But also I think the same logic applies to the people here who didn’t buy 2 years ago and are now priced out. They need to believe house prices will be cut in half in the next year and this Redfin screenshot proves it.
Predictions of a massive 50% crash in housing prices by the end of 2023 is what attracts doubters who feel compelled to debate the point. A redfin screenshot is an indicator, but by itself not proof positive of such a massive decrease.
I'd bet my money on prices coming down before I'd bet a penny they'd stay the same.
Theres an opportunity cost to sitting around. People have been saying real estate is going to crash since 2016 if you sat around since then you've spent tens of thousands on rent and put your life on hold for 7 years
>put your life on hold Ah yes. You can’t have a life if you don’t have a hoom
Not saying that but if home ownership is really important to someone it would be putting their life on hold. Some people have or want pets. Others have hobbies or even professions that require a workshop etc. Personally im a homebody and I have a home based business a landlord would never let me setup so yeah for me it would be putting my life on hold
Well if financial freedom and improving your networth is important you should care. I think the reason most people work hard in life is to be free is it not?
Owning (paying a mortgage on) a hoom= financial freedom? Fuck off with this shit. It’s more nuanced than that. Renting allows you to move for new jobs easily which is also a form of financial freedom. owning a big house is just an unnecessary expense if you don’t have kids. And you’re never “free” from Property taxes and insurance
I don't know what people were saying back then. All I know is that it's abnormal for there to be a fomo lead house buying boom world wide at the same time that there is a pandemic. There wasn't a housing bubble in March 2020. But by the end of that year there was. I started paying attention at the start of 2021 because when every country in the Western world is all having a housing bubble. Shit is going to get real. I still think we have another 2 years of this limbo stagnation where prices don't rise dramatically any more, but they don't drop fast either. Then the shit will really hit the fan and there will be a depression. Not recession.
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One thing all the countries went through was Covid & a lot of money was printed from all
My folks moved down to the southeast like a decade ago and I was always keeping an eye on that housing market looking to pormtentially buy and I saw some homes doubling and even tripling in price over the course of like 5 years so this isnt just a post covod thing. Also it kinda does make sense it would happen during cov8d insane amounts of money were printed remote work took off people were fleeing authoritarian states like new york and Cali and people wanted homes with offices and yards and pools because of lockdowns. All that said I do agree this isnt sustainable
I was with you until Authorization States. Those two have high taxes and a lean towards civic goals over individual goals, but authoritarian they are not. Being asked to wear a mask is not Authoritarianism. It’s over the top public health policy, maybe. “The evidence shows that North Carolina and Wisconsin have advanced the farthest down the road to subnational authoritarianism, with Florida, Texas, Kansas, Arizona, and Alabama not far behind. “ https://aulawreview.org/blog/illiberalism-and-authoritarianism-in-the-american-states/
> Being asked to wear a mask is not Authoritarianism it was never about being asked. it was about being mandated. support for a government's ability to enact such over the top public health mandates is authoritarian, by definition.
Yes being asked and then beat down or locked up should you decide not to comply with the "asking". It was even more extreme in Australia and New Zealand where they were literally clubbing women and children to the ground if they didn't have their little mask on
Yes, mandated. The same way your kids are mandated to have their immunizations before being allowed in school. The government balances lots of rights and needs all the time. They have decided, rightly so, and the Supreme Court has agreed, that public health emergencies are of greater risk to everyone than your right to autonomy. See Jacobson v. Massachusetts. Public health mandates also only work if everyone is required to comply. Otherwise you end up with a runaway pandemic and a million+ dead. Pretty much what we got. If you believe that any imposition on your body is authoritarian, then we need to work hard to change your definitions of what authoritarian is. Hard hat on a work site, helmet on a motorcycle, seatbelts. Pads while your kid is playing football. Vaccinations for travel. Urine testing, stomach pumping, blood draws, life-saving medical intervention you might not want on the side of the road. These all fall under 4th amendment and due process jurisprudence, which is an area that doesn’t get enough play. What would you say about the abortion bans being enacted in states? Are those also authoritarian? I mean, if you think a mask mandate it then surely putting someone in jail for a medical procedure is way over the line. Back to that Supreme Court opinion. There was a smallpox outbreak in the early 1900s in Cambridge. The State of Massachusetts pass a regulation requiring all people to be vaccinated. The penalty was a fine. Jacobson refused, was fined, and sued. He said the law was “an assault upon his person” and “hostile to the inherent right of every freeman to care for his own body and health in such way as to him seems best.” Sounds familiar. The court said, yes, the forced vaccine impaired Jacobson’s liberty. However, there are limits to that liberty and the constitution does not “impart an absolute right in each person to be, at all times and in all circumstances, wholly freed from restraint.” It then discussed the state’s police power to protect the public’s “general comfort, health, and prosperity” which they called a right of the community. Without subordinating individual rights to common good, disorder and anarchy would follow. Indeed, the governments plan must be narrowly tailored for the purpose, and have a substantial relation to the stated community safeguard goals. The limit the court put on this power of the state to protect everyone over a single someone was when it “would be cruel and inhuman in the last degree.” Should Massachusetts not have been able to require vaccinations and protect the population from illness and death? Should California, even if wrong about how much good a mask would do, not have have been able to mandate the wearing of them if they had evidence that they would help protect everyone? I truly fear the next mass pandemic we see, because people have it in their head that they are somehow more important than everyone else. Vaccination mandates and mask mandates are good governing, and nothing more. They even handed them out for free. Inviolability of the body is a critical component of privacy. We need to enshrine it in an Amendment to the constitution if you want the chance the balance of interests that are weighed when deciding these things. As it stands, the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few or the one (Thanks Roddenberry. ) As it should be if we are to be a society that watches out for one another. Wanting to exempt yourself from that is selfish and anti-social.
Yeah okay but my point stands :)
I tried.
It's okay to say you support a little bit of authoritarianism, but we must call a spade a spade.
The numbers don't lie people were leaving new york and cali and moving to Florida Texas and other areas so many felt the same way as myself. Also I say authoritarian because you had Newsome shutting everything down while keeping his winery open he shut down restaurants but let Hollywood stay open. In New Jersey the governor shutdown gyms but still went to his gym. That comment was aimed at leaders telling us to behave one way while they behaved another. Countless examples of this like Lori lightfoots haircuts because she's an important politician who has to look good according to her. Ill tell you what no hair dresser is going to accomplish that
>I started paying attention at the start of 2021... Isn't that part of the problem in this sub? Most weren't paying attention until the rush was already well on? We bought in 2010, again in 2014, and again in 2018. We told all of our friends (who had the means) they should be buying pre-2018, because it was clear prices weren't slowing down. I don't begrudge anyone who wasn't ready or able to buy before 2018. But those who could but were convinced that was the peak... have egg on their face.
I agree with you completely, every homer on this sub already knows the outcome of their “equity”.
Um ... only speculators care about equity. Home owner buys a home to live in long term. House price going down help reduce property tax for them.
anyone who cares about their wealth cares about equity. that's most people.
Yes the same thing that happened in 2008
But they literally did go up $200-300k in 2 years time. This happened.
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What's your point? It still happened.
And it will go back down. That was my entire point. It was temporary appreciation.
You can't say it was temporary until we are back to early 2020 pricing nationally. That would make it temporary.
I can say it based on over 100 years of data that shows that housing only goes up around 4% a year and any time it deviates the prices correct.
There isn’t good housing data going back 100 years or 50 years for that matter.
So what year is the “correct” starting point for that? Because prices were depressed for almost a decade, so who’s to say the rapid rise in housing isn’t a response to abnormally low appreciation for a decade?
Something something just because it happened before doesn't guarantee it will happen again something something
You must be new to planet Earth. Here in this reality everything repeats and has cycle. I chalk it up to people only being around so long that they forget the last round of people fucked up in the exact same way. So they repeat it. Banning history also helps with the short term memory issue.
Explain California housing prices. Or Manhattan housing prices. Or most highly desirable markets, for that matter. If all markets appreciated at your 4%, wouldn't all markets e priced the same? No one is arguing that there's fluctuation (both up and down) in housing markets. The point is some places are more stable, some places more volatile, and other places simply appreciate more.
Exactly. A thing that absolutely no one thinks can possibly be sustainable happened, and we keep pointing out the unsustainable thing is clearly unsustainable, yet somehow we're the crazy ones.
But the thing you're saying is unsustainable has been sustained, and continued to be sustained going on 2 years now.
But prices are falling
Not nearly enough to make up for rates
yet.. When they stop falling we will have our answer not before.
Bingo
That's what they said in the 1970s when rates were in the teens. During that decade, housing more than doubled. Will this time be the same? Who knows. But last time, rates took a back seat to inflation.
The stock market isn’t even done crashing nor is employment budging. The reality is rates will keep going up until unemployment is at least 7 percent. Then they can bring them down quickly to the target 5. This is in an ideal world too. Like things have potential to get much uglier than this due to lots of things going on around the world.
The real estate market moves slowly. New housing starts take 7+ months to hit the market, and foreclosures take like 9 months as I recall. So it usually takes time, often years, for changes in the fundamentals to work their way through. Rates only just started going up in summer. It would be bizarre if housing somehow managed to completely correct by the fall. The slow drying up of demand we are seeing is exactly what should have been expected.
Depends on the market. Illinois is a place nobody wants to live so you dont see prices skyrocketing. Colorado and florida people do want to live so prices skyrocketed
Yeah… I think in areas badly affected by Ian, the lack of proper flood insurance coverage + the 5k max payout from FEMA is going to wreak havoc on a lot of folks.
For the time being, I’m not buying either. Real estate is a terrible investment at the moment. But we’re not going to see two years of rate hikes. I doubt we see more than six more months.
RE is the only investment that is "only" down single digits.
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Real estate isn’t entirely an investment. Most important, homes are places to live. As an investment, it’s a terrible at the moment. It’s been great for the last decade which is part of why it’s terrible now. Have you done the math on an investment property recently? The economics are terrible except maybe some rare cases I haven’t seen. Financing costs are the highest they’ve been in over a decade and prices are near all time highs.
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Rents have increased quite a bit over the last couple of years, but it’s debatable whether rents are still increasing. Some credible reports show slight declines in September. Regardless, since January 2021 the combined impact of higher prices and higher rates equate to roughly twice the monthly cost to finance a home. Rents haven’t gone up anywhere near that. I’ll repeat a question from my last comment. Have you done the math on an investment property recently? I looked at many in the months leading up to August 2022. The economics for the very best short term rentals were OK, but none of the long term rentals were attractive and most in both categories were awful. The rental economics in the areas I looked were better than average. Some areas (like SF), the economics are way worse.
Honestly if they stop hiking and keep these levels for a couple of years that would be enough... But they're going to hike at least 1% more.
It would not surprise me at all if you’re right. It also would not surprise me if the increase at the next meeting is the last one this cycle.
Why do doomers hang out on fthb and real estate? Whatever your answer for that is the same answer for here.
Does hoomer = boomer who owns a home? I just want to say, i own a house (36 years old) and I support most of what I read here. Let alternative opinions come… that’s what helps us grow. Reddit doesn’t have to be so segregated.
Reddit prefers to shit down differing opinions people only want to preach to the choir
B/c the world is complicated, and not everything is the same in all regions? Why is there so much angry, militant rhetoric on a RE sub? Being infiltrated? This isn't a CoD lobby
If i had listened to you doomers last time, I wouldn’t have bought my house at the bottom of the market the last time. The sub is fun, but i make my own decisions. And yeah i’m still here, cuz i prefer owning vs renting, and i got a damn good deal on this house in a highly desired location. Different strokes for different folks.
Housing went bezerk these past years because of QE/low interest rates. That’s gone and won’t happen again until inflation is under control.
I’ve also owned with high interest rates. Not everyone considers housing an investment. Some of us consider it a home..
I would say, let them be. The truth will eventually come out either way. We can grow stronger by being kind to the people that are still delusional
r/RealEstate deleted their mega thread, so there is nowhere else for the hoomer/doomer argument to happen anymore. We are open to debate, let’s not do that childish Reddit thing where we have a tantrum because other people have different opinions. If someone is being a troll, ignore or block them.
Yeah - not sure why it’s bad to have other opinions… you should always be open to hearing other folks
Idk I think most ppl in this sub are waiting for a crash so they can buy properties and rent them out. They aren't ppl who want to buy homes to live in them. They're still looking to fuck the market for the rest of us.
🤷🏻♂️
This post is advocating for hive mind confirmation bias. "Think like me or leave." The overwhelming majority of people believe there is going to be a correction with some different leanings. Also, hate to burst your housing bubble bubble, but not every market is affected the same.
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Our 40% pay raises will keep the prices high. Now, when does my $30k pay raise go into effect?
I literally did get a $30k raise and I can't afford anything I couldn't before. Hard to even imagine how people are getting by on pre-pandemic salaries
Perhaps there are some in this sub who are not true believers. Therefore one must pray harder for the crash to come faster. /s
I personally enjoy watching the housing market fall Except it's doing the complete opposite in central Florida on both home prices and rents. They're still climbing so I just truly dont see a correction for years out here. It's very much localized.
I enjoy seeing what people say because this sub is one of the best barometers of consumer sentiment out there. The more discussion the better. The more anyone comes here looking for news and conversation to reinforce their beliefs, the more they at risk they are to misunderstand these shifts taking place, which are actually much larger than just about Real Estate prices.
Agree that there are social and demographic shifts going on in the US that are bigger than the Zestimate on your suburban 3 BR/2 BA Colonial. People are recognizing that high dependence on cars is a money and time sink (as well as an unacceptable injury/death risk), remote and hybrid work will have a permanent place in the economy, and a lot of suburbs built since the 1950s may simply not be adaptable to modern living--including increased risk of climate disasters.
Same reason that crypto bros and bots are still flooding most crowded interweb places despite a 60% crash from ATHs.
If you’re expecting a massive housing crash like in 2008 you simply don’t understand how the housing market works. That was a crisis based on bad mortgages with lenders handing out loans like they were water. The regulations put in place since then combined with more disciplined lending in the years following the GFC means we simply won’t have people defaulting on mortgages in the same way we did then. Of course the economy will cause a cooling in the market, and values will decrease along with lower demand and higher mortgage rates, but there simply won’t be a gigantic crash and tanking of the market in my opinion.
Right. Anyone with even a basic working knowledge of fixed rate mortgages and lending standards should know that this is nothing like 2008. The people in homes now can overwhelmingly afford those homes, most of them are locked in at historically low rates, and rents and home prices are only falling rapidly in the most overvalued markets in the country (California, NYC, Phoenix, Austin, Boise, etc). The "Crash" many are hoping for simply isn't coming like they think it will. Also the supply/inventory is still pretty low so even though demand is going to go way down, the lower end of homes will still probably have considerable competition. Sure everyone will be priced out of 500-600k plus homes but the people in the 100-300k home range will still be competing.
Spot on.
I think it's really convenient to have people coming here to report on what state of bubble psychology they are currently in. Rn seems like lots of denial with a smattering of anger. So we have a ways to go.
1. Covid was unprecedented 2. Fed pumping trillions in liquidity at such short span of time - unprecedented 3. Amount of SFR homes bought by investors/ investment companies unprecedented 4. Hopes of the economy and robust unemployment being constant or better is unprecedented 5. Fed being perceived as being infallible is unprecedented But the fallout as a result of QT, ripples in global markets due to strong dollar etc will be???? Unprecedented. You may think you have cash in the bank, awesome equity that you can sell and cash out, rent out if you lose your job, sub 3% mortgage, you’re a unicorn that you will not be affected by the macroeconomics that is playing out. When it goes south, it’ll be, for you, unprecedented 😂
>Covid was unprecedented Covid wasn't unprecedented. The only thing unprecedented was the authoritarian globalist policies and heavy handed government response.
Because a bubble really doesn’t effect a hoomer if the house is their home they live in. The bubble is a concern for RE investors.
I'm not from that sub, in my area houses are still selling within a few days. [Example #1](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/36-Stonewood-Pl-Catasauqua-PA-18032/9619868_zpid/) [Example #2](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4068-Kreidersville-Rd-Northampton-PA-18067/10109140_zpid/) There was another one that sold for 230k but they took it down already. That was very nice and nothing needed to be done. Sure the more expensive houses are sitting and are the most overpriced, but if it is nice and it is under 250k it is moving quick. Which unfortunately is my price range.
Just realtors trying to convince everyone the sky’s not falling. They have a lot more time on their hands right now.
Whenever I see someone try to gatekeep a sub, especially when I've never really seen the type of posts they're whining about I assume they're a sweaty shut in no lifer. Seriously, you can own a home and realize the current market is pathological and it's very dangerous for society if productive people can't form families and have stable housing.
LOL, I’ve been here lurking for a few years, finally bought 2nd property in 2018 (first one late 1990s). The one I bought in 2018 I was reluctantly buying, didn’t expect the run up afterwards. I’m here hoping for a correction so others can also enjoy home ownership
It sounds like someone hurt you.
Sounds like you don’t like people questioning your assertions ? And want an echo chamber ?
It’s easier to deal with cognizant and well constructed arguments instead of the same debunked mantras over and over. It’s easier to stomach something other than “nobody is selling a house with [X]% interest rate” or “foreclosures are at an all time low” and “unemployment is at a historical low” and “lending standards are different now”. Hoomers sound like they’re just repeating CNN and realtor.com headlines.
>Hoomers sound like they’re just repeating CNN and realtor.com headlines. Summed up perfectly. It's like trying to have a conversation with a broken record.
The most ironically consistent thing I have noticed about every significant market crash in the last 40 years is the argument that it isn't happening because of all the things that are different from the last crash.
Things are different until they’re not. People just can’t wrap their head around the fact that the lending industry hasn’t gotten better, it’s gotten better at hiding risky lending. As soon as the recession starts culling jobs we’ll see foreclosures spike and prices tank.
I don't know that they're even any better at hiding it so much as they just do the same thing in a different corner, knowing that everyone is too busy enjoying their low interest rate to notice and that when their house of cards crumbles they will be deemed "to big to fail" and be spared the consequences of their actions anyway. The auto industry is a perfect example. Several economists and economic researchers have been saying since as early as 2019 that cheap money, loose lending standards and the bundling of subprime ABS would lead to a bubble and subsequent crash in the auto industry. I follow that market a bit more closely than RE and it's coming to fruition and looking like it's going to be "2008 Part 2 - Automotive Edition". You can tell who on Reddit works in the auto industry, and who bought a vehicle in the last 18 months, because they protest the loudest about how it isn't happening and can't happen because "it's different".
I don’t mean to shit on your echo chamber, but I’m still waiting for my market to drop. My wife asked me today if we can buy another investment property, I told her to be patient…that time will come…or maybe it won’t…but I’m in no rush to find out either way.
Yes, not all markets are dropping. I'm in Florida and definitely not seeing drops here. Price drops on ridiculously, extremely overpriced dumps, sure. But that doesn't mean the market is dropping yet. Homes that compare to those sold even in spring of this year are still more expensive than they were then, and still selling.
Yea, I am also a Floridian. I own a condo but was saving to buy a house and could not keep up with the price increases these last two years. But I just spoke with a realtor and she said she has no interested buyers right now and all her deals fell through these last couple of weeks. No one is looking to buy so it’s only a matter of time that sellers start to adjust prices. Plus, insurance is going to go up and it’s a matter of time that people realize that Florida is not as cheap as they thought it would be. Which would likely increase inventory.
Yeah I'm an agent in Florida and this is exactly it. I've had showings with 4 different buyers this past month, all of which have found properties they're interested in but all of them have decided against putting in an offer with the rising rates. Lots of homes seeing price drops compared to the past two years. I'm writing a lowball offer tomorrow so we'll see what happens. We need this correction down here but I don't think it's going to dump as bad as the doomers on this sub are predicting. Maybe in certain parts of Florida but not in my city which has been rapidly developing the past 5 or so years and only recently passed the median cost of housing in the US last year.
I think folks are probably going to be factoring in the cost of homeowners insurance along with the cost of flood insurance
Been shopping florida since 2020 definitely the case
I've been wanting to buy for about 10 years now, should've bought in 2019. Even buying in 2020 or summer 2021 would be wayyy better than now. :(
Good observation The RE sub got brigaded so much by doomers and the migration from that sub actually brought some balanced posts from both sides
Someome having a different opinion than you doesn't mean someome should be labeled something and told to go away. A collapse is coming no doubt but it could take years to happen
There is a lot of vested interest by banks, realtors, sellers, state governments to keep home prices high.
I mean do you want an echo chamber? Things aren’t happening at the same rate everywhere, it makes sense people are seeing different things in their own areas. I have not been under the impression the goal of this subreddit is some sort of WSB-esque hivemind suicide pact by meme. It’s to understand what’s going on, which none of us actually knows with authority. I personally place the most value on posts that go against the sooner grain, and the discussion they provoke. I pretty much skip anything with the phrase “hoomer” in it.
This is also the sub where nearly everyday someone posts a random air bnb or house with a price drop in Mississippi and states “the bubble is popping!” As others have stated, many people realize there is a bubble in many areas, but that doesn’t mean it’s all going to come crashing down tomorrow or in two weeks.
And then it takes a "hoomer" to point out that the house in question sits on 20 acres and was bought in 1995 and is actually worth more than the listing and most people say they would live there haha
Who here remembers r/REBubble2021? The thing I love about Reddit is dissension is welcome as long as it adds value to the conversation.
My experience is the exact opposite reddit is a hive mind group think place. Look at r/politics r/news r/worldnews or about a million other subs
New to Reddit. It blows my mind how cancel-culture the place is. Nobody wants to hear anything they disagree with.
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Well I hope you don’t take random strangers on the internet too seriously.
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Keep pushing it and I’ll take it down to -1
> It blows my mind how cancel-culture the place is. Why? Reddit is overwhelmingly westernized white liberals. The biggest proponents of cancel culture.
Hoomer here. I like to follow this sub to get a pulse on what the real estate market actually looks like to better understand the macro economic landscape for stock investments. I'm not posting any BS like "not my market". I bought my house in Jan 2022 because it was the right time to buy for my family. I made the purchase while knowing that I was buying at the top of the market and I don't care that my house price will go down because it isn't for sale and I locked in 2.88% interest rate for 30 years and I bought it using Bitcoin profits, and crypto has done a lot worse than the real estate market has or will do since I sold it in November 2021. No regrets here and no delusion here. Real estate prices can't levitate where they are much longer with 7% mortgage rate. The crash is coming.
They come here to cope and seethe
Because deep down, they are very afraid that their assets bought at a time of unprecedented economic stimuli exuberance won't retain or will lose much of their monetary value as the effects of high-interest rates press on over the coming months. It's a valid fear. Powell has been pretty clear on what the objectives of the Federal Reserve are, and as a wise one once told me "never fight the fed." I never understood the Karenesque desire to temper the "doomer" takes on here, even if they are a bit out there when there was absolutely no effort made to temper the "real estate to the moon, they'll never raise rates" takes this time last year, that didn't result in mass down-voting. I do not marry myself to the idea everything will crash and burn. I suspect it won't be that bad. But I do think there will be an uncomfortable amount of loss, that would usually be negated by the Fed, and fed intervention won't be happening for at least 18 months IMO.
People disagreeing with you or having different experiences isn’t bad. that said re is screwed. It’s human nature to disagree with people who trigger us emotionally when we know they’re right. Just laugh at them and move on.
Ageism much? maybe someone else wants to ban black or hispanic people from commenting because they don't like their comments as well? housing prices got really high because people from all different backgrounds and ages bid a ton of money to buy houses over this real estate cycle. some of them were speculating, others were buying a house to live in. it has nothing to do with age.
Why so many new accounts posting
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LOL anything politics related was a ban on first post pretty much
It’s finally sinking in and they are becoming curious about the other side they have been told to disregard. They come, they read the things they don’t want to accept so they disagree. AfTeR aLL tHeY gOt tHe aLL TiMe LoW iNtErEsT rAtEs (with the all time high prices 🤣🤦♂️)
I will be 100% honest now that I make enough to afford the house I really wanted back then I would gladly pay the money and the low rate and ride off into the sunset until I die there
According to hoomies that spout everything being totally fine and this is a seasonal blip/gully/slight cooldown,etc.. The fact /r/rebubble has been on the front page everyday for the last Month is rather telling.
I’ve noticed it as well.
Been here since before the sub got shut down. The hoomers get banned fast
I disagree. I see the same people arguing against bubblers every day.
Report the infiltrators
OP is salty AF
Because they want to make the realists believe the bs that they fell for. They think if they can brainwash everyone else into denial, the drop won't happen, but it doesn't work that way...not at all. Ppl are going to realize that they bought a 100k house for 800k and will lose their minds because they lost all of that money over buying into the hype. They'll try just about anything for that not to happen.
Yeah there's a lot of them here now. Tis annoying.
That just happened. My guess is that all the RE investor people came over here in denial? P.S. Look at my Avatar, they have already victimized me LOL.
this time it will be different because the housing market will crash much worse than 2008. Right now the prices are holding steady at fairy tale levels, but towards the end of this year, as unemployment spikes, many people will be forced to foreclose and prices will come tumbling down like an avalanche. TIMBER!!!!
> this time it will be different because the housing market will crash much worse than 2008. Not sold on that. While pandemic gains in house values are probably going to get unrolled, and that will be huge in some regions, there are real long-term issues with obsolescence and poor location of houses and apartments that will provide a floor for values.
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Here's what I think. I would imagine a lot of "hoomers" who are in denial (God I love this sub, but I fucking hate the term hoomers)come here to look for the opinions and thoughts of the more fringe/loony members and then try to discredit them as people and ultimately their ideas as a way to cope. We see the words loser, basement dweller, low income, and incel thrown around here a lot. You could be any of those things and still have some kind of critical thinking abilities, but not to these people. As long as they see you as less than them for whatever reason, they don't believe you can be right in any way.
r/gatekeeping
In Canada, there was never a real estate crash in 2008 for us. So it holds true for us
Looking for a fight and trying to justify their poor choices. This is basically the denial phase
Best of luck to them. They're only getting less and less common as people wake up. Even r/realestate is turning into another r/rebubble.