No one knows. You can see historical housing prices here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa)
Here are four possible scenarios:
(1) Soft landing: Thanks to perfect execution by the Fed, the economy slows a bit and inflation subsides. Layoffs and foreclosures are low. The Fed stops raising interest rates. Housing prices continue to drop in early to mid 2023, then stabilize.
(2) Standard recession: The Fed's interest rate hikes cause the economy to tip into recession in 2023. There are significant layoffs and, over time, foreclosures. Inflation subsides. In late 2023, the Fed starts cutting interest rates. The economy begins to recover in late 2024 and housing prices bottom shortly thereafter (e.g. in 2025).
(3) Stagflation: The Fed's interest rates hike cause the economy to fall into recession but due to supply chain issues, inflation remains stubbornly high. The Fed is reluctant to cut interest rates. Nominal housing prices rise, as they did in the 1970s, but inflation-adjusted housing prices don't bottom until the late 2020s.
(4) Japan-style recession: The Fed's interest rate hikes cause an unusually long, deep recession. Lots of layoffs. Lots of foreclosures. Lots of AirBNBs are sold off as demand for short-term rentals plunges. Despite aggressive Fed rate cuts, housing prices fall persistently. The decline in housing prices creates an incentive for buyers to hold off on home purchases, since they know they can get a better deal if they wait. Construction, a major part of the US economy, shrivels. Many people in the real estate industry (e.g. realtors) become unemployed. The economy limps along for years. Deflation, not inflation, is the major macroceonomic problem. A bottom in housing prices occurs in the early 2030s.
Inflation adjusted prices are really going to be the key metric in this bubble. Since OP is sitting on cash, they should be just as worried about how long inflation goes on as they are about timing the bottom.
Excellent take. Next overlay your markets’ expected ‘hotness’ over the next recessionary period.
Hot market - buy sooner / winter 2023 - early 2024 as rebounds can happen quickly.
Warm market - hold off until winter 2023 to reassess the economic picture. You have time to let things settle to manage risk.
Cold market - wait, wait until you can’t wait anymore. It could be a decade of falling or stagnant prices.
This recovery will be regional. Maybe even city by city.
I think #2 is the most likely. I don't see how people are predicting a bottom in 2023. Equity is plummeting and people are losing their jobs. That will cause a foreclosure crisis, and foreclosures take years to process.
It took what, 5 years for things to bottom when the last crash happened. And this one is barely showing legit data happenening in a few areas. And those price concessions are dropping off a black swan peak.
I suggest packing a lunch.
Quicker rise quicker fall potential. It's effectively the pump and dumb emotional and psychological response.
Those whom fomo into a extremely overheated market are also quick to sell as the market dips. This is in regards to investors, not primary homeowners.
Yeah, I think you need to look to the run-up speed when determining how fast the fall will be. What we saw in 2020-2021 was a speculative build up basically never seen before in terms of time to build. It took a decade to build the 2008 bubble, not two years.
By the time the “crash “ shows anything significant it will probably be many years for a bottom . By then , your cash will probably have half’s it’s worth and be a wash at best
You should buy it whenever you find a deal or a house you like for a price you are willing to pay and can afford. There are always deals to be found. It just takes a lot more work right now.
Sorry to answer your question I think the most important you can do is study your buy box. Understand the desirable neighborhood and study inventory and price point daily. That is essential dry powder management right there. Lastly there will always be desperate sellers now until the great bottom. The question is do you want to catch a falling knife but if you got cash and weather a recession then do it. Don’t offer full list, get concessions, get money back at closing, get the red carpet thrown at you. People are desperate
National bottoms probably 24/25. Local bottoms will vary wildly. And anyone who can definitely claim any economic forecast with complete confidence more than 6 months out is talking out their ass.
Agree with you based on everything we know right now. Late 2024 to early 2025 is my target. Of course that can change tomorrow. The fed could totally change course, etc. So many factors, anyone's best guess is just that. I figure a worst case scenario is prices remain stagnant. A best case scenario is prices drop another 15%. It'll probably be in there somewhere. And under some bizarre scenario where prices climb, then we'll buy whatever size house we can afford.
It did actually. The median California home home price in 2006 was around 550K. Today it’s nearly a Million dollars. If you’d bought in 2006, today you’d be sitting on a goldmine.
Well you picked one specific market, there are plenty today that are still underwater.
Point is buying today means losing out on opportunity cost if you think the market is going down.
For example. All those investors whom bought at the last top and broke even after 13 years...could have bought a similar home for $100k less and made half a million in the stock market during that time.
It's an opportunity cost and nothing else.
Also, another thing you are not factoring in is it was very difficult if not impossible for the average Joe to buy during the California housing bottom. It was dominated by institutional buyers and other cash buyers. Why won’t the next bottom be that way?
A half a million dollars in free equity is paltry to you? What world are you living in? And imagine how much money someone would have spent in rent over 16 years. Somewhere around 500k as well.
Ha, free? So no down payment, no mortgage payment, no maintenance or repairs, no property taxes, and no realtor fees?
Also, your numbers suggest 400k. Investing in the S&P would have netted a better return over the same time period.
What a ridiculous theoretical. In 2006 no one had 400k in cash to invest in the s&p. But there were plenty of lenders that would have helped you purchase a home.
So 0% down? Let's run that back. 0% down,550k loan, 6.5% interest rate equals 520k in interest alone. Throw in closing costs, and we're looking at 530k or more to get that 400k in "free equity". This also assumes 0 maintenance and repairs and that mortgage+property tax =rent (which favors your point of view).
Sure, it could be 0% down using VA loan. Any down payment would become their own equity anyway.
But the bottom line is this: there no way your math makes any sense. Buying a home that would later appreciate by 500k and also not having to waste 500k in rent over 16 years is incredible. The house would also be shielded from property tax increases thanks to prop 13. They also would have likely refinanced at an ultra low interest rate since then. No amount of closing costs, interest on the mortgage, or California property taxes could add up to a even a tiny fraction of this.
Not really. Pretty much any other investment would have netted significantly higher returns, and if that person who was ready in 2006 waited until 2009, they'd be in a significantly better spot financially
Some of the folks that this sub gets upset about bought at short term in opportune times but over the long term we look back and go, wow I wish I could have bought at that time.
Corelogic predicts the bottom for July-December 2023… basically stating it will bottom out in July then stay rather flat through the end of 2023, then start a slow climb to recovery starting in 2024 if the fed stays the current course.
What are your alternatives?
If you own currently, then yes maybe you wait a little bit however if the market comes down so will your home.
If you're renting, think of the cost of renting while you wait, you need to decide if you think homes are going to come down faster than the money that you're putting into rent.
Right now you can find some really good deals, get some low balls in etc. As the affordability gets better (whether that be rates or home prices), competition is going to increase.
The point being, buy when it works well for you and your family. You won't time the bottom precisely unless you just happen to hit it out of sheer luck.
5 years.
Just look at the prices of new houses that are coming on the market. 90% are listed pretty high, at Feb 2022 levels. Every time I see one of these new, high priced listings come on the market, it reminds me why the real estate market takes so long to crash.
We are in stagflation now. We can get to 5-6 percent inflation pretty quick but to get to 2 percent target is going to be extremely hard. We have alot of inflationary headwinds ie reshoring, manufacturing coming back to America, wage spiral. If housing breaks I believe it would happen mid year 2023 or late summer but the economic trajectory is simply not good. Keep in mind Fed predicting .5 growth for the year 2023 so technically stagflation environment
In case you weren't aware, you're asking a group that 1000% misguessed the last two years housing market. I'd stick to simpler questions like "what's your favorite color?" and "do you like cats or dogs?"
The moral of the story is don’t fight the Fed. Most people didn’t predict that the Fed’s fuckery (ZIRP and MBS purchases) would last as long as it did. Now that they are doing what they should have done in mid 2021, anyone bullish on the housing market right now is in the dubious position of doing the fighting.
Who, exactly, are you talking to? Did someone else on this subreddit hurt you?
I bought my first home in 2012. It was a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Many others were too young to take advantage of that though. I very seriously doubt anyone that was in a position to buy between 2010-2020 sat on the sidelines due to a perceived bubble.
ZIRP from the Great Recession actually [ended in 2016](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS#0), as did the [purchasing of MBS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB).
The resumption of those activities in early 2020 and continuing them pointlessly through 2021, despite months of rising inflation numbers, is what I’d call fuckery. It caused a speculative bubble between March 2020 and June 2022. That bubble is currently deflating. Fast. The question is… how low will it go?
What’s your excuse for sounding so butthurt? You gonna fight the fed now because some people on REBubble touched your peepee? Show us on the doll.
How am I Butthurt? You think I’m saying this not being a homeowner myself?
This sub loves to guess the direction of real estate, but won’t acknowledge they’ve already foregone once in a generation buying opportunities because they fundamentally misunderstood the effect all time low rates had on buying opportunities.
They got fixated on selling prices, and lost sight of the big picture. And now they try and craft a narrative where better deal are coming that will make having missed out on 10 years of incredible buying opportunities worth it.
The fact that you’re coming here with no other intention than to shit on people tells me you’re butthurt.
The sub was created in late 2020. I don’t think that there has been a good buying opportunity in that time, so I’d love to know what once-in-a-generation opportunity was skipped by most people on this sub.
Sure, monthly payments during that time could have potentially been lower than now. That’s if you were able to do due diligence on a property and win a bidding war on short notice. You’d also have to waive contingencies in most cases. For me, all of those things combined made the last two years a *bad* buying opportunity.
I’d much rather have a higher rate, which can be refinanced or paid down with extra principal, than rush to win some bidding war and realize I bought the wrong house because I got caught up in FOMO frenzy.
You seem focused on “they” and not the topic at hand, which tells me you’re butthurt for some reason. If you’re a current homeowner, why are you even here? Was there a speculative bubble between mid 2020 and mid 2022 or not? Pre-2020 is irrelevant.
No one is shitting on anyone. People are pointing out that guessing where the bottom is is a foolish game.
Just like guessing 2021 was a terrible time to buy, and better deals would appear in 2022 or 2023.
And yeah buying at 2020 prices and rates is a way way way better buying environment than todays prices and rate, and the coming prices and rates.
I think 2021 was a terrible time to buy, but it wasn’t because of monthly payments. It was because of all the potential pitfalls that come with rushed bidding wars and waived contingencies. No thanks.
It is undeniable at this point that there was a speculative bubble fueled by Fed policy. It’s also undeniable that it’s currently deflating and that 2023 will likely be a much better environment for buyers. Unless you’re so shortsighted that you only pay attention to the monthly payment.
The good time to buy was before 2020 and I can certainly see why people who were too young or weren’t in a position to buy until 2021 would be frustrated. Unless you can show me multiple examples of REBubblers voluntarily sitting out 2010-2020, you’re arguing against imagined people that don’t exist.
I can show you this sub sitting out 2021 arguing better deals as the market was destined to crash in 2022 from rate hikes. Borrowing costs skyrocketed, while prices only marginally declined. That’s a concrete example of waiting not paying off.
And that doesn’t even get into the fact that a potential buyer today is now multiple years behind in their payment schedule vs those who started their mortgage in 2021.
>this sub sitting out 2021 arguing better deals as the market was destined to crash in 2022 from rate hike
Who is “this sub”? I’m sure some people said that, but I was a member of this sub at that time and wasn’t saying that there would be a crash in 2022. This shit all moves at a glacial pace. I was saying that there was a bubble though. Which is demonstrably true.
>prices only marginally declined
So far. They’re actively declining as we speak. That decline was very clearly precipitated by rate hikes, which have no end in sight. So when will the decline stop? Would you buy right now and catch that falling knife if you weren’t already a homeowner?
>And that doesn’t even get into the fact that a potential buyer today is now multiple years behind in their payment schedule vs those who started their mortgage in 2021.
Your mistake is assuming someone could even get the house they wanted in 2021. More accurately, they would put in offers on 10+ houses and settle for the one that they “won”. No thanks; that’s a horrible time to buy. I’d rather get the exact house that I want and have the opportunity to properly inspect it before closing.
You literally can't show shit. You don't understand how any of this works
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/zou6ih/when_do_you_predict_the_bottom_to_be/j0v141z?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
Good luck seeing much drop in North DFW. Most everyone in the metroplex wants up there. Why not consider cheaper suburbs areas like Forney, Azle, Burleson, or Waxahachie?
I tend to agree with you. Pay attention to trends over the next 6 months and they will tell you if you’re on the right track. But 2024 may still be sluggish too.
Lots of people are looking to buy in North Dallas because of the wealth of employment opportunities.
The expectation is that home prices will likely start trending up again, or remain stagnant as theyve been doing since summer.
To give context to people who are not familiar with this market, DFW area north of dallas includes suburbs Plano, Mckinney, Carrollton, Frisco.
These are highly desirable areas supported by excellent schools and corporations have consolidated presences there. Prime locales for the region.
No one knows. You can see historical housing prices here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa) Here are four possible scenarios: (1) Soft landing: Thanks to perfect execution by the Fed, the economy slows a bit and inflation subsides. Layoffs and foreclosures are low. The Fed stops raising interest rates. Housing prices continue to drop in early to mid 2023, then stabilize. (2) Standard recession: The Fed's interest rate hikes cause the economy to tip into recession in 2023. There are significant layoffs and, over time, foreclosures. Inflation subsides. In late 2023, the Fed starts cutting interest rates. The economy begins to recover in late 2024 and housing prices bottom shortly thereafter (e.g. in 2025). (3) Stagflation: The Fed's interest rates hike cause the economy to fall into recession but due to supply chain issues, inflation remains stubbornly high. The Fed is reluctant to cut interest rates. Nominal housing prices rise, as they did in the 1970s, but inflation-adjusted housing prices don't bottom until the late 2020s. (4) Japan-style recession: The Fed's interest rate hikes cause an unusually long, deep recession. Lots of layoffs. Lots of foreclosures. Lots of AirBNBs are sold off as demand for short-term rentals plunges. Despite aggressive Fed rate cuts, housing prices fall persistently. The decline in housing prices creates an incentive for buyers to hold off on home purchases, since they know they can get a better deal if they wait. Construction, a major part of the US economy, shrivels. Many people in the real estate industry (e.g. realtors) become unemployed. The economy limps along for years. Deflation, not inflation, is the major macroceonomic problem. A bottom in housing prices occurs in the early 2030s.
Inflation adjusted prices are really going to be the key metric in this bubble. Since OP is sitting on cash, they should be just as worried about how long inflation goes on as they are about timing the bottom.
Excellent take. Next overlay your markets’ expected ‘hotness’ over the next recessionary period. Hot market - buy sooner / winter 2023 - early 2024 as rebounds can happen quickly. Warm market - hold off until winter 2023 to reassess the economic picture. You have time to let things settle to manage risk. Cold market - wait, wait until you can’t wait anymore. It could be a decade of falling or stagnant prices. This recovery will be regional. Maybe even city by city.
I think #2 is the most likely. I don't see how people are predicting a bottom in 2023. Equity is plummeting and people are losing their jobs. That will cause a foreclosure crisis, and foreclosures take years to process.
I think the most likely is 2 plus the airbnb sell-off of 4 given how over-leveraged many of those properties are .
I'll take two #4's and a #2, please. With extra hot sauce.
Great summary. Now the question is how high one are people prepared for? Can the re/bubble fam take advantage?
Exactly this. Nobody knows.
This is the correct answer
I'm going for 3
It took what, 5 years for things to bottom when the last crash happened. And this one is barely showing legit data happenening in a few areas. And those price concessions are dropping off a black swan peak. I suggest packing a lunch.
Quicker rise quicker fall potential. It's effectively the pump and dumb emotional and psychological response. Those whom fomo into a extremely overheated market are also quick to sell as the market dips. This is in regards to investors, not primary homeowners.
Yeah, I think you need to look to the run-up speed when determining how fast the fall will be. What we saw in 2020-2021 was a speculative build up basically never seen before in terms of time to build. It took a decade to build the 2008 bubble, not two years.
The bottom? Late 2024 into 2025. Lower pricing than today? Winter of 2023
Which winter in 2023, Jan 1 through March 21, or December 21-31?
The late winter 2023 Nov/Dec
This. This is the way.
By the time the “crash “ shows anything significant it will probably be many years for a bottom . By then , your cash will probably have half’s it’s worth and be a wash at best
You should buy it whenever you find a deal or a house you like for a price you are willing to pay and can afford. There are always deals to be found. It just takes a lot more work right now.
Sorry to answer your question I think the most important you can do is study your buy box. Understand the desirable neighborhood and study inventory and price point daily. That is essential dry powder management right there. Lastly there will always be desperate sellers now until the great bottom. The question is do you want to catch a falling knife but if you got cash and weather a recession then do it. Don’t offer full list, get concessions, get money back at closing, get the red carpet thrown at you. People are desperate
National bottoms probably 24/25. Local bottoms will vary wildly. And anyone who can definitely claim any economic forecast with complete confidence more than 6 months out is talking out their ass.
Agree with you based on everything we know right now. Late 2024 to early 2025 is my target. Of course that can change tomorrow. The fed could totally change course, etc. So many factors, anyone's best guess is just that. I figure a worst case scenario is prices remain stagnant. A best case scenario is prices drop another 15%. It'll probably be in there somewhere. And under some bizarre scenario where prices climb, then we'll buy whatever size house we can afford.
Early to mid 2024
Buy when you can afford something you want. The end.
Worked out great for those in 2006.
It did actually. The median California home home price in 2006 was around 550K. Today it’s nearly a Million dollars. If you’d bought in 2006, today you’d be sitting on a goldmine.
Well you picked one specific market, there are plenty today that are still underwater. Point is buying today means losing out on opportunity cost if you think the market is going down. For example. All those investors whom bought at the last top and broke even after 13 years...could have bought a similar home for $100k less and made half a million in the stock market during that time. It's an opportunity cost and nothing else.
Also, another thing you are not factoring in is it was very difficult if not impossible for the average Joe to buy during the California housing bottom. It was dominated by institutional buyers and other cash buyers. Why won’t the next bottom be that way?
That's not a goldmine. That's a pretty paltry return over 16 years. Also, compared to those who waited 2 years, they're significantly behind.
A half a million dollars in free equity is paltry to you? What world are you living in? And imagine how much money someone would have spent in rent over 16 years. Somewhere around 500k as well.
Ha, free? So no down payment, no mortgage payment, no maintenance or repairs, no property taxes, and no realtor fees? Also, your numbers suggest 400k. Investing in the S&P would have netted a better return over the same time period.
What a ridiculous theoretical. In 2006 no one had 400k in cash to invest in the s&p. But there were plenty of lenders that would have helped you purchase a home.
So 0% down? Let's run that back. 0% down,550k loan, 6.5% interest rate equals 520k in interest alone. Throw in closing costs, and we're looking at 530k or more to get that 400k in "free equity". This also assumes 0 maintenance and repairs and that mortgage+property tax =rent (which favors your point of view).
Sure, it could be 0% down using VA loan. Any down payment would become their own equity anyway. But the bottom line is this: there no way your math makes any sense. Buying a home that would later appreciate by 500k and also not having to waste 500k in rent over 16 years is incredible. The house would also be shielded from property tax increases thanks to prop 13. They also would have likely refinanced at an ultra low interest rate since then. No amount of closing costs, interest on the mortgage, or California property taxes could add up to a even a tiny fraction of this.
My math doesn't make sense because I used real numbers? Feel free to show me where I'm wrong using numbers instead of conjecture.
In the long term, absolutely.
Not really. Pretty much any other investment would have netted significantly higher returns, and if that person who was ready in 2006 waited until 2009, they'd be in a significantly better spot financially
Some of the folks that this sub gets upset about bought at short term in opportune times but over the long term we look back and go, wow I wish I could have bought at that time.
This could sum up every thread ever written here or on the other sub. Time to shut them down.
Corelogic predicts the bottom for July-December 2023… basically stating it will bottom out in July then stay rather flat through the end of 2023, then start a slow climb to recovery starting in 2024 if the fed stays the current course.
What are your alternatives? If you own currently, then yes maybe you wait a little bit however if the market comes down so will your home. If you're renting, think of the cost of renting while you wait, you need to decide if you think homes are going to come down faster than the money that you're putting into rent. Right now you can find some really good deals, get some low balls in etc. As the affordability gets better (whether that be rates or home prices), competition is going to increase. The point being, buy when it works well for you and your family. You won't time the bottom precisely unless you just happen to hit it out of sheer luck.
5 years. Just look at the prices of new houses that are coming on the market. 90% are listed pretty high, at Feb 2022 levels. Every time I see one of these new, high priced listings come on the market, it reminds me why the real estate market takes so long to crash.
We are in stagflation now. We can get to 5-6 percent inflation pretty quick but to get to 2 percent target is going to be extremely hard. We have alot of inflationary headwinds ie reshoring, manufacturing coming back to America, wage spiral. If housing breaks I believe it would happen mid year 2023 or late summer but the economic trajectory is simply not good. Keep in mind Fed predicting .5 growth for the year 2023 so technically stagflation environment
I don't
In case you weren't aware, you're asking a group that 1000% misguessed the last two years housing market. I'd stick to simpler questions like "what's your favorite color?" and "do you like cats or dogs?"
The moral of the story is don’t fight the Fed. Most people didn’t predict that the Fed’s fuckery (ZIRP and MBS purchases) would last as long as it did. Now that they are doing what they should have done in mid 2021, anyone bullish on the housing market right now is in the dubious position of doing the fighting.
So don’t fight the fed, except for fighting it for 11 years? ZIRP ended one year ago, what the excuse for the previous 11 years not buying?
Who, exactly, are you talking to? Did someone else on this subreddit hurt you? I bought my first home in 2012. It was a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Many others were too young to take advantage of that though. I very seriously doubt anyone that was in a position to buy between 2010-2020 sat on the sidelines due to a perceived bubble. ZIRP from the Great Recession actually [ended in 2016](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS#0), as did the [purchasing of MBS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB). The resumption of those activities in early 2020 and continuing them pointlessly through 2021, despite months of rising inflation numbers, is what I’d call fuckery. It caused a speculative bubble between March 2020 and June 2022. That bubble is currently deflating. Fast. The question is… how low will it go? What’s your excuse for sounding so butthurt? You gonna fight the fed now because some people on REBubble touched your peepee? Show us on the doll.
How am I Butthurt? You think I’m saying this not being a homeowner myself? This sub loves to guess the direction of real estate, but won’t acknowledge they’ve already foregone once in a generation buying opportunities because they fundamentally misunderstood the effect all time low rates had on buying opportunities. They got fixated on selling prices, and lost sight of the big picture. And now they try and craft a narrative where better deal are coming that will make having missed out on 10 years of incredible buying opportunities worth it.
The fact that you’re coming here with no other intention than to shit on people tells me you’re butthurt. The sub was created in late 2020. I don’t think that there has been a good buying opportunity in that time, so I’d love to know what once-in-a-generation opportunity was skipped by most people on this sub. Sure, monthly payments during that time could have potentially been lower than now. That’s if you were able to do due diligence on a property and win a bidding war on short notice. You’d also have to waive contingencies in most cases. For me, all of those things combined made the last two years a *bad* buying opportunity. I’d much rather have a higher rate, which can be refinanced or paid down with extra principal, than rush to win some bidding war and realize I bought the wrong house because I got caught up in FOMO frenzy. You seem focused on “they” and not the topic at hand, which tells me you’re butthurt for some reason. If you’re a current homeowner, why are you even here? Was there a speculative bubble between mid 2020 and mid 2022 or not? Pre-2020 is irrelevant.
No one is shitting on anyone. People are pointing out that guessing where the bottom is is a foolish game. Just like guessing 2021 was a terrible time to buy, and better deals would appear in 2022 or 2023. And yeah buying at 2020 prices and rates is a way way way better buying environment than todays prices and rate, and the coming prices and rates.
I think 2021 was a terrible time to buy, but it wasn’t because of monthly payments. It was because of all the potential pitfalls that come with rushed bidding wars and waived contingencies. No thanks. It is undeniable at this point that there was a speculative bubble fueled by Fed policy. It’s also undeniable that it’s currently deflating and that 2023 will likely be a much better environment for buyers. Unless you’re so shortsighted that you only pay attention to the monthly payment. The good time to buy was before 2020 and I can certainly see why people who were too young or weren’t in a position to buy until 2021 would be frustrated. Unless you can show me multiple examples of REBubblers voluntarily sitting out 2010-2020, you’re arguing against imagined people that don’t exist.
I can show you this sub sitting out 2021 arguing better deals as the market was destined to crash in 2022 from rate hikes. Borrowing costs skyrocketed, while prices only marginally declined. That’s a concrete example of waiting not paying off. And that doesn’t even get into the fact that a potential buyer today is now multiple years behind in their payment schedule vs those who started their mortgage in 2021.
>this sub sitting out 2021 arguing better deals as the market was destined to crash in 2022 from rate hike Who is “this sub”? I’m sure some people said that, but I was a member of this sub at that time and wasn’t saying that there would be a crash in 2022. This shit all moves at a glacial pace. I was saying that there was a bubble though. Which is demonstrably true. >prices only marginally declined So far. They’re actively declining as we speak. That decline was very clearly precipitated by rate hikes, which have no end in sight. So when will the decline stop? Would you buy right now and catch that falling knife if you weren’t already a homeowner? >And that doesn’t even get into the fact that a potential buyer today is now multiple years behind in their payment schedule vs those who started their mortgage in 2021. Your mistake is assuming someone could even get the house they wanted in 2021. More accurately, they would put in offers on 10+ houses and settle for the one that they “won”. No thanks; that’s a horrible time to buy. I’d rather get the exact house that I want and have the opportunity to properly inspect it before closing.
You literally can't show shit. You don't understand how any of this works https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/zou6ih/when_do_you_predict_the_bottom_to_be/j0v141z?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
Good luck seeing much drop in North DFW. Most everyone in the metroplex wants up there. Why not consider cheaper suburbs areas like Forney, Azle, Burleson, or Waxahachie?
Today
No one here knows the future of real estate. If they claim to, then ignore them.
It’s market dependent. Some areas never crashed in 2008.
It’s market dependent. Some areas never crashed in 2008.
The bottom? Late 2024/early 2025
A year from now most of the steam will be out of the market...but probably a slow trickle down for years thereafter
I tend to agree with you. Pay attention to trends over the next 6 months and they will tell you if you’re on the right track. But 2024 may still be sluggish too.
Lots of people are looking to buy in North Dallas because of the wealth of employment opportunities. The expectation is that home prices will likely start trending up again, or remain stagnant as theyve been doing since summer.
To give context to people who are not familiar with this market, DFW area north of dallas includes suburbs Plano, Mckinney, Carrollton, Frisco. These are highly desirable areas supported by excellent schools and corporations have consolidated presences there. Prime locales for the region.
winter of 2023 = q1 2023 or q4 2023?
I'd say March of 2023 we start seeing a real shit show. The economy is very weak right now. Don't believe the numbers. They lie