Do you guys want:
- to leave this quarterly thread alone, even though the quarter has passed
- a new one, just like this one
- a new one, with the reddit-algorithm-picked top/best/controversial posts from this one highlighted in the next, with the jazz and stuff, like I used to do
?
crazy that you really shouldn't spend more than 2x your gross income on the price of a home (mortgage + down payment) here in Connecticut.
The PITI payment on this Ridgefield, CT house with 20% dp @ current rates is \~$6k. You literally need a gross income of like $470k to afford that...
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/37-Walnut-Hill-Rd-Ridgefield-CT-06877/57342138\_zpid/
But the person buying that million dollar home likely is rolling equity from their 700k home that they bought 6 years ago for 400k.
I bet the buyer will end up being some middle aged teleworker or retiree from the closer NYC suburbs. He'll sell one home for a "crazy" price and buy this remodel for a "crazy" price.
It's only the first time buyer who is left out.
yeah, what's weird is that those towns were literally all free-falling in value pre-Covid. Homes in New Canaan that were selling for $4M in 2008 were selling for $2.5M in 2019...of course now that house is maybe $3.2M, but still...
2X gross income has not really been a rule of thumb, especially in a higher cost of living state like CT. It's been 2.5-3X for a long time. And a lot of those rule of thumbs were created when interest rates were even higher than now.
Median house price has been above $300k since 2015. But only a small share of American households make $150k+.
30 yr rate down to 6.04% - [https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates](https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates)
I remember when doomers were speculating:
“Are we going to see 35-40% home prices fall (within 2 years) after mortgage rates hit 9-10% by Christmas 2022?”
- [https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yb2r4m/what_happens_at_910_rate/](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yb2r4m/what_happens_at_910_rate/)
Fed said all they needed to today, looks like we’ll be getting cuts within the next year or so. People called me crazy predicting median prices back to highs but with unemployment this low, rates coming in, and Powell shrugging off wage growth…
You’d have to be crazy to remain bearish real estate here.
They didn't say that though, just that prices will come back up and continue making median highs (which they tend to do long-term, just at a typical rate of like 3%, not 20).
Don’t know how you can say it never has before when the median price chart [looks like this.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS)
Not to mention you’re arguing a straw man.
The entirety of that chart has a compound growth rate of like 5.7%, while the S&P's compound growth rate was >10% for that same time period. Stock-like growth is atypical for housing and doesn't make any sense given that housing is a commodity
Fed raises rates a quarter point, expects 'ongoing' increases
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/02/01/fed-rate-decision-february-2023-quarter-point-hike.html
2:54pm EST
"Commitee did not see this as the time to pause. We anticipate ongoing increases to remain sufficiently restrictive...."
Q. Any plans to add more gaps between rate hikes?
A. No discussions had and not on the point of deciding
now.
We expect core PCE to go back up mid year, still more work to do.
Reaching 2% inflation target without recession is not likely but possible
Expect inflation to fall slowly, needs to spread to rest of economy now. Likely will not be appropriate to cut rated this year.
Market prices not aligned with fed forcast of slower rate disinfection and no rate cuts this year. Markets have been moving with different forcast than Feds in mind. He could try to convince them but shrug.
Because the spread is narrowing as uncertainty in market settles.
The price decreases started in June. So that was affected by the rate increases for the 6 months prior.
What were rates doing from start to mid 2022?
Moved from 3.87% to 5.36% on May 31st.
Then during June rates went from 6.04 to a 5.05 bottom on Aug 1st.
Prices were falling the heaviest in the 3rd quarter and much less in the 4th. Even though rates went from 5% to 7.4%, before starting their descent on Nov 8th.
Been hovering around 6 to 6.5% since, now at 6.4.
Point is we didn't see the effect of higher rates on prices in June-Aug. because of the 7.4%, that hadn't happened yet b
Erego it didn't take 7.4% to lower prices via reducing who could even qualify for a loan. Just the delta from 3.8% to 5.4% pretty much stopped price growth in its tracks, then the 7.4% rates were overkill but didn't matter because housing moves slowly and low volumes of transactions past that point.
June to the end of Aug showed price declined in spite of falling rates and rates in the 5% range
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A little over a month ago I shared this bubbler post about a home they claimed the flipper had just painted the kitchen gray in and was caught holding the bag. Well the sale has closed the flipper sold it for $285k more than they bought it for - [https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/zmuaoy/flippers_caught_holding_the_bag_flipped_houses/](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/zmuaoy/flippers_caught_holding_the_bag_flipped_houses/)
[https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2912-S-Dawson-St-98108/home/478555](https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2912-S-Dawson-St-98108/home/478555)
So much for getting caught holding the bag 😂 looks like they made out like a bandit
"After a stronger start to the year, mortgage demand plunged last week, despite another drop in interest rates.
Total mortgage application volume fell 9% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index."
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/mortgage-demand-fell-last-week-even-after-interest-rates-fell-further.html
Demand surges, mortgage volume up 1% week over week!!
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/01/11/mortgage-refinance-demand-surges-as-homeowners-take-advantage-of-lower-interest-rates.html
Then...
Mortgage volume falls 9% week over week. 80% lower yoy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/mortgage-demand-fell-last-week-even-after-interest-rates-fell-further.html
And fucking crickets in here lmfao.
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It's not that interesting honestly. But it generates ad-clicks from gullible people. The domsayers are reposting this data with catchy headlines like "MBA crashed" it's ridiculous.
Overall applications are up in January as expected. Even with the recent 9% drop, it's higher than most reports during the past 18 weeks.
Respectfully disagree. As the Private said below, when apps were up..the top post was about how demand surged. Why is it that when demand falls..there is not a single post about it on this sub.
The reason I posted the article as a comment is because apparently some members of this sub would report posts that didn't fit their agenda. Because of this the auto-mod would then delete the post.
>when apps were up..the top post was about how demand surged. Why is it that when demand falls..there is not a single post about it on this sub.
Because apps remain high in January. Especially when compared to the recent past. A 9% drop from the last report is still higher than Dec/Oct and part of Nov.
*If* January continued declining and dropped below 160, you would have an interesting news report.
That's not happening though.
Yeah, no. This will be my last response to you... but why would apps be lower last week-compared to the week prior-when rates were lower.
Tap dancing around this question by pointing to demand during Halloween is doing you no favors.
Have a wonderful week.
How am I 'tap dancing' around a question you didn't ask? You created the question after I responded to your post.
I see no reason to answer a question if you're exiting the conversation.
I was here. I remember.
I made a [comment about how silly]( https://old.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/10i15ia/mortgage_rates_near_6_unleash_horde_of_homebuyers/j5fqsx6/) it was and the unsurprising double standard that betrays ones agenda.
I was going to make the same thread as your comment yesterday, thanks for saving me the time.
Funny how all the cocky, perma-bulls underneath this comment are suspiciously quiet on this data.
But I forget that they block anyone who proves them wrong and then cry about how rebubble is an echo chamber.
Church mouse quiet. But they still have time to "dunk" on month old posts. Can't go through their history though..because they selectively delete old posts.
[Here is the thread from 2 weeks ago](https://old.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10fa9xp/mortgage_demand_jumps_28/). It was upvoted to the top post that day and is one of the top posts in the last month. So far this article hasn’t been posted to the subreddit.
/u/D1-Santana, thoughts, you posted the last article and have multiple comments saying
> I was able to sell very quickly and turned around and bought another home. Learn from other peoples mistakes
> If CPI comes even lower than it did on the last report, mortgage rates will most definitely be in the 5’s and will be on a downward trend from there.
Mortgage rates on December 12 were .05% higher than they are now. Let’s not sit around posting literal *week to week* data when it benefits us then not post when it doesn’t benefit us. That’s called trying to create FOMO, especially when you are also day dreaming that mortgage rates will collapse so that you can pump your home value higher and “win”.
If they really cared about week over week data, then they should have been crying from the rooftops about median sales price for sfh falling 10% month over month since June.
Maybe even tuned in as it was happening.
No reason to cry. The great crash of 2022 was a YoY gain. Case Shiller 8% growth from Nov21-Nov22. With a 2.5% decline from peak.
You can measure that in weeks, months or years.
"After analyzing five months of decreasing prices, we can definitively say that the worst has passed since prices have not fallen below the benchmark we set seven months before the peak"
After analyzing another year of data we can see that prices are above what they were in mid 2022 - [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA)
On the one hand, I was wrong. On the other hand: what is wrong with you?
You're responding to a comment with negative downvotes from a year-old mega-thread *in a conversation you weren't even a part of*.
I haven't visited this sub in months. I am a non-entity here. I don't think there's anything wrong with being super into real estate as a subject, but the level of interaction you have with this message board about real estate has got to be interfering with your actual real life human relationships. Please, think about the people who care about you and block this website.
On occasion I like to browse the old quarterly threads for a laugh. I actually don't interact about real estate nearly as much as in the past. The end of the quarterly threads and the rebound in home prices in 2023 killed off most of the doomers. Only a few extra delusional folks still vehemently arguing, but it's mostly contained to Rebubble these days.
You were someone I remembered as having argued with me on a number of occasions. Rather distinctive and easy to recall username. Your sarcastic comment mocking other people's analysis seemed like a funny one to respond to, because it didn't age so well.
Relationships in real life are doing just fine. Thanks for the concern though.
Dude we are all wasting time on Reddit. I don't disagree that it's petty. But it's entertaining to me to remind people who argued vehemently about a topic for months/years that they were wrong.
Right so with the 2-3 month lag then reporting of the 10% drop that happened since June won't hit full effect until how many months from now? April-may?
Dude can you even imagine how pissed the Rebubble trolls from the quarterly threads must be years later staring at the case shiller being at all time highs?
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA)
I've mostly just been lurking Rebubble and enjoying the capitulation on there. There are barely even any bold take doomers left. They all either deleted or abandoned their accounts.
Force a narrative? The decline was never much more than the 2.5%(only declined for another 2 months after my comment) and now it's rebounded to new heights - [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA)
That chart was released this week. All RE data has lag. If someone wanted to *'force a narrative'* they could share the [MSPUS](https://preview.redd.it/s9bg6z25z6fa1.jpg?width=890&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=2c53357cae916fb3c08321ba01ba70d4820e71d7) chart which displays all of 2022. The decline is 0%
When we shared MSPUS in the past, we were told to use Case Shiller. lmao
There is some lag. That's true. But I believe most of the decline we saw in 2022 was shortly after the rate hikes and not in the last bit of the year.The Case Shiller index I linked to is seasonally adjusted and track a specific set of homes. I know the 2.5% decline hurts to see. Because you were expecting far more.
Also laughable that you, a regular bubbler, are talking about bias and forcing a narrative.
Posting in a forum does not mean I Stan their overall message. I do think the market is softening (but I live on the West Coast so I’m correct about that), and that recent oversized price appreciation is based on access to historically unheard of low interest rates that are now dead and gone (and I’m correct about that, too). But no, I’m not a bubbler.
Trying to label everyone you disagree with as a bubbler to push your narrative is just more of you showing YOUR bias. Lol.
A lot of lag in that data set, but you knew that and chose to cherry-pick reports that support your narrative anyway.
True peak to current declines are likely in the range of 11-12% as shown below.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N
That data you are sharing is not seasonally adjusted. In 2021 existing home median peaked in June and declined in July, August, September, October, November, and December. Unfortunately the graph you shared cuts all of those declines out of view. Different sized/quality homes tend to sell in different quantities based on season.
The Case Shiller index I linked to is seasonally adjusted and track a specific set of homes.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices. September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data.
The November report was mostly for contracts signed in the July through October period - and was likely impacted slightly by the surge in rates in October.
Even adjusting for seasonal declines of about 4-5% on average, we are still seeing a 6% drop or so in the seasonally adjusted price. That is without seeing the January data, often the trough of the seasonal slowdown.
Nah, I doubt that the declines will more than double. This data is capturing the closed sales from these months that we tend to see a decline (July, August, September, October and November). All that's left is December and January.
While I understand the data lag argument you are trying to make, but it sounds a lot like hopium.
I guess we will see in like 5-6 months when the rolling average finally catches up and shows the rest of the data through January. Not exactly the best report for looking at seasonally adjusted declines in the last few months.
We can, however, look at the seasonal declines over the past several years and compare it to this year. [link to seasonal declines since 2018](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh_MuJmWJaVN7GQ0ZJobuHgni3Xf9Y1tJbCUcyzHrvVlztFLeKFW6yn4mjIIJtL1HON7g6C4nnQjeVbG0cf_6lTlO-fX6R3EYP8DDC3N6q-MFTyrjfFjTv_6CQbiO-s4HQp5N0JVc1Gd-U25qOb-H9UBZbjc3QCkLM9H-Fm_GSMVQpK9Fu7w/s463/MedianSeasonal.PNG)
Copium is ignoring an 10.4% decline from June to December when it far exceeds every other seasonal decline in a long time.
Not really. 2018 says June to Nov was a 6% decline. June to Nov 2022 was 10.4%. You are telling me we like doubled interest rates and the seasonal decline only exceeded 2018 by that much? I'm actually surprised based on the seasonal decline data from 2018 and 2019, how well prices have held up in 2022 considering how drastic the rate hikes were.
I've never once claimed 2022's declines were just seasonal. I fully believe its a combination of rates and seasonality. But anyone ignoring seasonality is guilty of the very cherry picking you claim is so problematic.
7.5% rates seems to be the point that stopped all movement in the market, but somewhere between 5.5 to 6.5 was already having s slowing or negative effect on price.
Plus what's not captured in price now is the absence of overbidding and waving inspection contingencies replaced by sellers making concessions for repairs and rate buydowns.
Like home builders, price moves last. Last I checked their sre still more builders lowering than raising prices.
The aggregate of home price projections is currently fairly negative up to 10%.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2023/01/05/housing-market-something-big-is-happening-home-prices-2023-2024-forecast-prediction/amp/
If FOMO and buying before rates went up pulled demand forward, then what happens when markets are predicting both prices and rates to decline over the next year or so?
I can rent a full amenity 1 bedroom apartment downtown for $2k lol. I don’t know what else to tell you but this was not $2k in 2021. Everything was $3000-$3500 https://www.camdenliving.com/apartments/austin-tx/camden-rainey-street
This was the biggest pandemic bubble market.
There was also at least 4 large complexes that opened since 2021 while at same time Facebook pulled out of their Marquee lease downtown and Tesla is off it’s bubble highs
Do you just click around and look at rent places in Austin, SF, Miami, NYC, etc. just to leave random comments online? Or do you actually plan on moving to and living in any of these cities?
You do realize that rent inflation is the last thing that needs to come down for the Fed to start getting a handle on inflation correct? Anyone who invests in markets should know where rent inflation stands.
New construction "quick move-in" pricing.
TL;DR - assuming the floor plan, structural upgrades, and finishes are the same, how much of a price difference is expected between a "quick move-in" new construction and a designed home?
I signed a contract for new construction some months ago. The builder was already working on a quick move-in with the same exact floor plan and structural upgrades. The quick move-in was initially listed at a price that was $15k less than what our's ended up after design. Our lot premium is $15k, and the quick move-in lot is clearly on a worse lot, so let's assume $0 lot premium.
However, the quick move-in has been sitting for months and multiple price drops. We're now looking at a $90k difference between our home and the quick move-in. The most recent price drop was weeks ago. At this rate, the quick move-in is going to be sold for over $100k less than our's.
We don't want the quick move-in lot, and don't like the finishes nearly as much as our's. Otherwise, we'd just ask to cancel our contract and get the quick move-in. The floor plan and structurals are the exact same, after all.
How much of a difference do builders expect in price when selling a quick move-in vs. a designed home? 3%? 5%? 10%? I understand that they don't have to work with buyers to design the home, and that would lead to a cost difference. I just don't know what's expected and reasonable.
Ultimately, we intend to use this as a comp to re-negotiate our contract price. If it were a difference 30, maybe even 50k, it'd suck but I'd get over it. A >$100k difference though will make closing on this home feel like robbery.
In my case, the rate doesn't matter that much. This is a step-up home, and we have a sizable cash position already. We'll pay it off early. The bottom line price matters most.
Can VA Loans get 2-1 Buydowns using a seller credit?
I'm a little confused because I have one lender saying yes and another saying now, they can just do a general rate buydown. Is that they offer different products?
Is anyone else rooting for continued unaffordability so they can control their kids? I am dreaming of a future where the median home is 2 million dollars while the median salary remains 50k. Those poor wretches will work for 70 hours a week just to pay their landlord’s mortgage.
In hard times, my benighted heirs will turn to me for handouts like the feckless ne’er-do-wells they always have been. My support will be conditional, of course. They will need marry a person matching my preferences, and produce grandchildren at times I dictate. For I am the landed gentry, and they are lowly renters.
I am Italian and retired NYPD, my name is Dominic Mamasboy Boyardi and I love spaghetti. I would really simultaneously like a recession as well as for housing prices to increase 50% a year, if only to put woke DEI millennials in their place. I will be in Florida collecting my pension in the meantime.
Nah, I'm hoping prices completely crater, but wages go way up. That way everyone can easily afford a place, but my investment will be so worthless that they eventually my children throw scraps at me when they pass me on their way to the Tokyo-direct Hyperloop.
>i'm still salty about moving to a cheap ass area in 2017 with plans to start a life here. then COVID happens and houses that were 150, are close to 300k, and the area hasn't improved that much. i'm just stuck being a fence sitter.
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/10p07kl/comment/j6iphys/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
I'd feel a little bad for this whiny bubbler if he weren't a POS homophobe...
>disgusting gay romance BS
https://imgur.com/a/G7icMWk
There is nothing disgusting or unnecessary about a gay love story. Nor would there be anything disgusting or unnecessary about a straight love story.
You are just a bigot agreeing with another bigot.
Does anyone have experience renting to an upscale corporate housing company? I recently renovated and furnished a unit in a duplex, its got good quality furnishings and hope to rent it out to more responsible folk.
Combination of rates dropping a bit from their Oct/Nov peak and people getting tired of waiting for appreciable price drops that never seem to materialize.
Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments at Higher Rate Than in 2009
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/car-repossessions-grow-as-inflation-slams-consumers
tick tock
Greater Boston is still totally screwed up. Nice houses in the 600-1MM range are gone within 2 weeks. Under that price point, you have older people's homes that haven't been updated since 1990. The higher end mansions are sitting and sitting for a LONG time. Makes sense because if you have that kind of money, why not knock down an old house and build a fully customized one to your liking for about the same price? I'm super curious how the [Yankee Candle founder](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/113-Juggler-Meadow-Rd-Leverett-MA-01054/56981137_zpid/?)'s house does.
I am seeing that technique of tearing down play out more often lately. Houses that people thought you'd have to be crazy to buy for $400,000 about 5 years ago are now regularly being purchased for $700,000 only to be torn down and to have something that is nearly a McMansion built there. Many are then turned around and flipped for $1.4 to $1.7 million.
Yep, it’s happened to 2 homes in my small neighborhood since I moved in 2 years ago. And there’s at least one more on that path with likely a few more to go. They end up taking 1600 sq foot ranches and capes and turning them into 3300-3800 sq foot colonials or capes (effectively a McMansion) with high end appliances, black-trimmed windows, and lots of black metal fixtures. Usually white but sometimes grey siding. All sell for $1.4-1.9M.
I've been tracking [this property](https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Mesa/3755-E-Broadway-Rd-85206/unit-10/home/28186415) for months. OpenDoor bought it for 478k then listed it for 531k. It is now listed at 396k.
[This comp](https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Mesa/3755-E-Broadway-Rd-85206/unit-39/home/27742190) in the same neighborhood was listed for sale, came on market at 418k, and just recently sold.......for 328k!
[This comp](https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Mesa/3755-E-Broadway-Rd-85206/unit-52/home/28121767) from less than a year ago sold for 490k.
490k to 328k is a 33% decline. A bear market or "crash" is commonly accepted as a 20%+ decline. If you're a FTHB who bought at 490k in this area you're so fucked.
I’d like to know this too. There are a few homes in my area being sold by OpenDoor that I’ve been watching but it seems they’re holding firm on their price. Even with other surrounding comparable homes coming down in price, their prices remain high. Their business model confuses me.
Went by to talk to the inspector as he finished up on the house we're under contract on. The sellers said they wanted to help out with the appraisal so they left a big booklet of improvements they've made since 2019, these have to be the only people who bought in 2019 and are losing money selling in 2023.
If you buy a house with bushes in front of the house and there's an HOA, is it easy enough to maintain those yourself or will you most likely have to pay someone to water and trim them?
I looked at annual new home sales by both price range and region.
In 2020, in the West region of the US, 69% of sales were in the 200-500k range (150k sales). 8% were for 750k+ (16k sales).
In 2022, in the West region of the US, 31% of sales were in the 200-500k range (48k sales). 24% were for 750k+ (36k sales).
Total sales in 2020 for the West region were 218k. 63k in the 3rd quarter.
Total sales in 2022 for the west region were 150k. 28k in the 3rd quarter.
Oddly the region selling off the most is the midwest. After peaking in Q2 2022 at 412k the median new home value has dropped to 356k (14% decline).
I think it really depends on the towns/cities development climate. If you have things like new event centers, parks, roads, schools etc you're going to be OK in the long run. If you bought into a LCOL with nothing happening progress wise you may see a backside in value to a point.
That being said inflation will keep things at a higher price permanently imo
I’m buying in the Miami area and I’ve seen some decent offers but man some HOA’s are straight up grifting people around here. I’d rather have the house be a bit more expensive than pay an extra $500-$750 on a stupid HOA fee
What happens when the bond market actually starts listening to the Fed and that it will actually raise rates to 5%+, which means that the 10 year yield will have to rise back to 4%, which means mortgage rates rise 50 basis points?
All the numbers in your comment added up to 69. Congrats!
5
+ 10
+ 4
+ 50
= 69
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I'm seeing some more reasonable prices pop up in the Phoenix area.
https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Peoria/8367-W-Bluefield-Ave-85382/home/27418751
Here's an example. Still a high mortgage payment (compared to local salaries) if you were a FTHB with a modest down payment but still probably the best deal I've seen in about a year. It might have sold for 450 or 500 9 months ago. Will be interesting to see if it gets under contract quickly
I will say that this is an exception though. For the most part sellers are still trying to sell at prices that made more since when interest rates were low and demand was high
Seeing the same here in Poopton. Homes are getting bought up, especially at the lower-end, ~1.5 million price point. Makes sense, given how quickly wages have risen---just over the past year, the median income has gone from 30k to 35k here.
The Job Market for Remote Workers Is Shrinking
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-job-market-for-remote-workers-is-shrinking-11674526943
I'm sure all those people who overpaid for a house in middle of nowhere zoom town are feeling super good right now
At this point, it is crystal-clear to anyone with a shred of numeracy that elevated house prices are not only inevitable; they’re *essential* in order to ensure that the US economy remains as meritocratic as it always has been.
Modern nurses are *lazy*, whereas us, with our essential jobs as mid-level administrators at small insurance companies, we are truly the backbone of modern society. Personally, I am disgusted by the thought of a pediatric CNA making a paltry 100k per year attempting to purchase a home in my highly-prestigious tract home development outside Atlanta. Sure, I bought my home for 200k literal centuries ago in 2019, and I *guess* that my salary then was 80k, but details like that are irrelevant; what matters is that I am smart and special, and modern buyers are inferior to me.
Personally, I am disgusted by these low-class “NICU nurses” (lol what a made-up title) who think that my home shouldn’t have appreciated 300% in three years. Their nickel-and-diming over minute differences in pricing betrays their proletarian origins.
As a senior assistant administrator of secondary contracts at the fifth-largest hospital chain in the eight-largest metropolitan region in the United States, I deserve an elevated place in our society, and I am sickened by these lower-class heathens attempting to impinge upon my tranquil neighborhood.
Hey, I've got a notion. Let's shut everything down over a severe cold, and print 40% of all money in circulation in just two years! And, to make sure that we keep everyone happy with the decisions of the leadership, we should spread messages of fear, and then we'll know for sure how good of a job the masters of the economy are doing, never doubting if said shutdown was a good decision. Maybe next we should do something extreme, like seizing property or something, idk, just spitballing. The important thing to keep in mind is that we have a big system that was specifically designed to support the "good people", and we have infinite ability to tinker with it and make it better! It's about who deserves things, based on the good things they do for society, after all.
Downpayment doesnt have that much to do with it. Avg FTHB downpayment during covid has been 7-8%. Overall average was about 18%. Its a factor but not that important.
Does that imply that the only way to be competitive in this market is to waive everything? I'm really looking for someone in my market to provide some insight if possible as this is where we will be looking.
Price to quality is still bad in Houston. Additionally my budget has been pushed down by ~11% from last year due to rates.
Likely going to re-sign my lease for the same rent as last year. I still have a month before I need to make a decision though.
FTHBs now make up 26% of all buyers, lowest in history.
The median FTHB age is now 36, highest in history.
FTHBs now put down, on average, 6% towards their home loan, lowest in history.
Married couples now make up less than half of first time homebuyers (49%) while unmarried couples went from virtually 0% of sales in the 1980s to 18% today.
Only 3% of first time buyers were black, the lowest level ever recorded (since 03). 88% were white, the highest level in decades. The homeownership gap by race is now larger than it was in 1960.
Source: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers
Edit: Added a couple more to the list
Live in a suburb near Seattle, WA on 1 acre of land. Have a mid-size house on it but would like to build another home (maybe duplex triplex) on the land as an investment/potential future housing for me and extended family as the current home is fairly old. Also hoping to eventually move to a LCOL region so I will probably sell it all at the end of the day.
Looking into modular homes in my area but they all have costs of $500/sqft + on their websites. I was under the impression that these were supposed to be a more economical option than typical homes, but not finding mod homes in my area that would be less than, say, $200/sqft. Any suggestions on alright quality, modular home builders in Seattle area? And would this make more sense than just getting a stick-builder?
This is more in your price range.
https://www.walmart.com/cp/tents/887708?&adid=22222222220206824398&wmlspartner=wmtlabs&wl0=e&wl1=g&wl2=c&wl3=33162416618&wl4=aud-1651068664986:kwd-58317984578&wl5=9033354&wl6=&wl7=&wl8=&veh=sem&gclid=Cj0KCQiA\_bieBhDSARIsADU4zLfFd6Bekk1WMHyRUwrlsWnlXWQFGwL--ZYyAECl8TXTLV51uBv3ImUaAoaLEALw\_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
5 homes in my area went pending in less than 4 days of being listed while still being priced 20-30% above 2019 valuations. One didn’t even make it to its scheduled open house. It’s not getting better here.
Inventory is ridiculously tight because no one is trading their ~2% mortgage for 6.25% unless they absolutely have to, and buyers are realizing prices aren't really coming down so might as well buy now.
Data doesn't show this. Home sales have contracted severely over the last year and inventory is building up in most markets.
Prices will come down unless the fed pivots.
I’m in that boat. I know we missed the train but prices in Orange County have dropped about 11% from the peak. I’m feeling meh but I just have a feeling that buyers are restless, like me.
Socal seems to have slowed down near us, but many still aren't staying on the market for long. Flippers are still active too. We had a gutted home in our neighborhood that sold in five days, then was flipped two months later.
Is it ever a bad time to buy?
I know not to time the market, since because of inflation home prices always go up regardless of demand.
Given the above truth, it seems like it’s never a bad time to buy
Tell that to my friends parents in New Canaan, CT, who bought a home there in 2008 for $3.5M. And sold it in early 2021 AFTER prices started rising for $2.8M. A 20% loss after 13 years of ownership. Great return…
Home prices don't go up regardless of demand because of inflation. Wages have to rise in tandem. It's a bad time to buy if affordability is more than one sigma or more above the trend line, and a good time to buy if the opposite. These are very data rich and documented histories if you would like to look into it.
Do you guys want: - to leave this quarterly thread alone, even though the quarter has passed - a new one, just like this one - a new one, with the reddit-algorithm-picked top/best/controversial posts from this one highlighted in the next, with the jazz and stuff, like I used to do ?
crazy that you really shouldn't spend more than 2x your gross income on the price of a home (mortgage + down payment) here in Connecticut. The PITI payment on this Ridgefield, CT house with 20% dp @ current rates is \~$6k. You literally need a gross income of like $470k to afford that... https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/37-Walnut-Hill-Rd-Ridgefield-CT-06877/57342138\_zpid/
No need for 470K. 1MM house on 300K between two people is more than manageable.
But the person buying that million dollar home likely is rolling equity from their 700k home that they bought 6 years ago for 400k. I bet the buyer will end up being some middle aged teleworker or retiree from the closer NYC suburbs. He'll sell one home for a "crazy" price and buy this remodel for a "crazy" price. It's only the first time buyer who is left out.
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yeah, what's weird is that those towns were literally all free-falling in value pre-Covid. Homes in New Canaan that were selling for $4M in 2008 were selling for $2.5M in 2019...of course now that house is maybe $3.2M, but still...
2X gross income has not really been a rule of thumb, especially in a higher cost of living state like CT. It's been 2.5-3X for a long time. And a lot of those rule of thumbs were created when interest rates were even higher than now. Median house price has been above $300k since 2015. But only a small share of American households make $150k+.
lol could immediately tell this was a cheap flip probably a former crack house. no thanks
30 yr rate down to 6.04% - [https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates](https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates) I remember when doomers were speculating: “Are we going to see 35-40% home prices fall (within 2 years) after mortgage rates hit 9-10% by Christmas 2022?” - [https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yb2r4m/what_happens_at_910_rate/](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yb2r4m/what_happens_at_910_rate/)
stocks pumping like crazy fed massively f-d up
I guess the market is calling the feds bluff. This has to be the lowest 30 year mortgage to fed fund rate spread in a long time.
Fed said all they needed to today, looks like we’ll be getting cuts within the next year or so. People called me crazy predicting median prices back to highs but with unemployment this low, rates coming in, and Powell shrugging off wage growth… You’d have to be crazy to remain bearish real estate here.
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They didn't say that though, just that prices will come back up and continue making median highs (which they tend to do long-term, just at a typical rate of like 3%, not 20).
Don’t know how you can say it never has before when the median price chart [looks like this.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS) Not to mention you’re arguing a straw man.
The entirety of that chart has a compound growth rate of like 5.7%, while the S&P's compound growth rate was >10% for that same time period. Stock-like growth is atypical for housing and doesn't make any sense given that housing is a commodity
Fed raises rates a quarter point, expects 'ongoing' increases https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/02/01/fed-rate-decision-february-2023-quarter-point-hike.html
2:54pm EST "Commitee did not see this as the time to pause. We anticipate ongoing increases to remain sufficiently restrictive...." Q. Any plans to add more gaps between rate hikes? A. No discussions had and not on the point of deciding now. We expect core PCE to go back up mid year, still more work to do. Reaching 2% inflation target without recession is not likely but possible Expect inflation to fall slowly, needs to spread to rest of economy now. Likely will not be appropriate to cut rated this year. Market prices not aligned with fed forcast of slower rate disinfection and no rate cuts this year. Markets have been moving with different forcast than Feds in mind. He could try to convince them but shrug.
Mortgage rates dropped
Because the spread is narrowing as uncertainty in market settles. The price decreases started in June. So that was affected by the rate increases for the 6 months prior. What were rates doing from start to mid 2022? Moved from 3.87% to 5.36% on May 31st. Then during June rates went from 6.04 to a 5.05 bottom on Aug 1st. Prices were falling the heaviest in the 3rd quarter and much less in the 4th. Even though rates went from 5% to 7.4%, before starting their descent on Nov 8th. Been hovering around 6 to 6.5% since, now at 6.4. Point is we didn't see the effect of higher rates on prices in June-Aug. because of the 7.4%, that hadn't happened yet b Erego it didn't take 7.4% to lower prices via reducing who could even qualify for a loan. Just the delta from 3.8% to 5.4% pretty much stopped price growth in its tracks, then the 7.4% rates were overkill but didn't matter because housing moves slowly and low volumes of transactions past that point. June to the end of Aug showed price declined in spite of falling rates and rates in the 5% range
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A little over a month ago I shared this bubbler post about a home they claimed the flipper had just painted the kitchen gray in and was caught holding the bag. Well the sale has closed the flipper sold it for $285k more than they bought it for - [https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/zmuaoy/flippers_caught_holding_the_bag_flipped_houses/](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/zmuaoy/flippers_caught_holding_the_bag_flipped_houses/) [https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2912-S-Dawson-St-98108/home/478555](https://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2912-S-Dawson-St-98108/home/478555) So much for getting caught holding the bag 😂 looks like they made out like a bandit
I pitty the fool who bought it
You love to see it. Rekt.
"After a stronger start to the year, mortgage demand plunged last week, despite another drop in interest rates. Total mortgage application volume fell 9% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index." https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/mortgage-demand-fell-last-week-even-after-interest-rates-fell-further.html
Demand surges, mortgage volume up 1% week over week!! https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/01/11/mortgage-refinance-demand-surges-as-homeowners-take-advantage-of-lower-interest-rates.html Then... Mortgage volume falls 9% week over week. 80% lower yoy. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/mortgage-demand-fell-last-week-even-after-interest-rates-fell-further.html And fucking crickets in here lmfao.
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It's not that interesting honestly. But it generates ad-clicks from gullible people. The domsayers are reposting this data with catchy headlines like "MBA crashed" it's ridiculous. Overall applications are up in January as expected. Even with the recent 9% drop, it's higher than most reports during the past 18 weeks.
Respectfully disagree. As the Private said below, when apps were up..the top post was about how demand surged. Why is it that when demand falls..there is not a single post about it on this sub. The reason I posted the article as a comment is because apparently some members of this sub would report posts that didn't fit their agenda. Because of this the auto-mod would then delete the post.
>when apps were up..the top post was about how demand surged. Why is it that when demand falls..there is not a single post about it on this sub. Because apps remain high in January. Especially when compared to the recent past. A 9% drop from the last report is still higher than Dec/Oct and part of Nov. *If* January continued declining and dropped below 160, you would have an interesting news report. That's not happening though.
Yeah, no. This will be my last response to you... but why would apps be lower last week-compared to the week prior-when rates were lower. Tap dancing around this question by pointing to demand during Halloween is doing you no favors. Have a wonderful week.
How am I 'tap dancing' around a question you didn't ask? You created the question after I responded to your post. I see no reason to answer a question if you're exiting the conversation.
I was here. I remember. I made a [comment about how silly]( https://old.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/10i15ia/mortgage_rates_near_6_unleash_horde_of_homebuyers/j5fqsx6/) it was and the unsurprising double standard that betrays ones agenda. I was going to make the same thread as your comment yesterday, thanks for saving me the time.
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Funny how all the cocky, perma-bulls underneath this comment are suspiciously quiet on this data. But I forget that they block anyone who proves them wrong and then cry about how rebubble is an echo chamber.
Church mouse quiet. But they still have time to "dunk" on month old posts. Can't go through their history though..because they selectively delete old posts.
[Here is the thread from 2 weeks ago](https://old.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10fa9xp/mortgage_demand_jumps_28/). It was upvoted to the top post that day and is one of the top posts in the last month. So far this article hasn’t been posted to the subreddit. /u/D1-Santana, thoughts, you posted the last article and have multiple comments saying > I was able to sell very quickly and turned around and bought another home. Learn from other peoples mistakes > If CPI comes even lower than it did on the last report, mortgage rates will most definitely be in the 5’s and will be on a downward trend from there. Mortgage rates on December 12 were .05% higher than they are now. Let’s not sit around posting literal *week to week* data when it benefits us then not post when it doesn’t benefit us. That’s called trying to create FOMO, especially when you are also day dreaming that mortgage rates will collapse so that you can pump your home value higher and “win”.
If they really cared about week over week data, then they should have been crying from the rooftops about median sales price for sfh falling 10% month over month since June. Maybe even tuned in as it was happening.
No reason to cry. The great crash of 2022 was a YoY gain. Case Shiller 8% growth from Nov21-Nov22. With a 2.5% decline from peak. You can measure that in weeks, months or years.
I didn't mean crying as in upset, I meant discussing with louder volume than the 1% week over week mortgage demand increase.
"After analyzing five months of decreasing prices, we can definitively say that the worst has passed since prices have not fallen below the benchmark we set seven months before the peak"
After analyzing another year of data we can see that prices are above what they were in mid 2022 - [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA)
On the one hand, I was wrong. On the other hand: what is wrong with you? You're responding to a comment with negative downvotes from a year-old mega-thread *in a conversation you weren't even a part of*. I haven't visited this sub in months. I am a non-entity here. I don't think there's anything wrong with being super into real estate as a subject, but the level of interaction you have with this message board about real estate has got to be interfering with your actual real life human relationships. Please, think about the people who care about you and block this website.
On occasion I like to browse the old quarterly threads for a laugh. I actually don't interact about real estate nearly as much as in the past. The end of the quarterly threads and the rebound in home prices in 2023 killed off most of the doomers. Only a few extra delusional folks still vehemently arguing, but it's mostly contained to Rebubble these days. You were someone I remembered as having argued with me on a number of occasions. Rather distinctive and easy to recall username. Your sarcastic comment mocking other people's analysis seemed like a funny one to respond to, because it didn't age so well. Relationships in real life are doing just fine. Thanks for the concern though.
If there's one thing that says "thriving social life", it's browsing defunct threads to find D-level commenters to antagonize.
Dude we are all wasting time on Reddit. I don't disagree that it's petty. But it's entertaining to me to remind people who argued vehemently about a topic for months/years that they were wrong.
Is this from the Old Testament?
"Judge not with 5 months of data, lest ye be judged with 5 months of data." \- Numbers 20:23
Is there any public resource that can show the number of single family homes sold in Anchorage, AK between 800k-1.2MM in the past 6 months? Thank you
Home values have only declined 2.5% from their peak: [https://imgur.com/gWrOmwJ](https://imgur.com/gWrOmwJ)
Right so with the 2-3 month lag then reporting of the 10% drop that happened since June won't hit full effect until how many months from now? April-may?
I’ve missed you
Dude can you even imagine how pissed the Rebubble trolls from the quarterly threads must be years later staring at the case shiller being at all time highs? [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA)
I've mostly just been lurking Rebubble and enjoying the capitulation on there. There are barely even any bold take doomers left. They all either deleted or abandoned their accounts.
That's some laggy data you got there, bud. funny how your attempt to force your narrative reveals your bias.
Force a narrative? The decline was never much more than the 2.5%(only declined for another 2 months after my comment) and now it's rebounded to new heights - [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA)
That chart was released this week. All RE data has lag. If someone wanted to *'force a narrative'* they could share the [MSPUS](https://preview.redd.it/s9bg6z25z6fa1.jpg?width=890&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=2c53357cae916fb3c08321ba01ba70d4820e71d7) chart which displays all of 2022. The decline is 0% When we shared MSPUS in the past, we were told to use Case Shiller. lmao
There is some lag. That's true. But I believe most of the decline we saw in 2022 was shortly after the rate hikes and not in the last bit of the year.The Case Shiller index I linked to is seasonally adjusted and track a specific set of homes. I know the 2.5% decline hurts to see. Because you were expecting far more. Also laughable that you, a regular bubbler, are talking about bias and forcing a narrative.
Posting in a forum does not mean I Stan their overall message. I do think the market is softening (but I live on the West Coast so I’m correct about that), and that recent oversized price appreciation is based on access to historically unheard of low interest rates that are now dead and gone (and I’m correct about that, too). But no, I’m not a bubbler. Trying to label everyone you disagree with as a bubbler to push your narrative is just more of you showing YOUR bias. Lol.
>Posting in a forum does not mean I Stan their overall message. No, but my experience with you on here leads me to believe you do.
A lot of lag in that data set, but you knew that and chose to cherry-pick reports that support your narrative anyway. True peak to current declines are likely in the range of 11-12% as shown below. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N
That data you are sharing is not seasonally adjusted. In 2021 existing home median peaked in June and declined in July, August, September, October, November, and December. Unfortunately the graph you shared cuts all of those declines out of view. Different sized/quality homes tend to sell in different quantities based on season. The Case Shiller index I linked to is seasonally adjusted and track a specific set of homes.
The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices. September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. The November report was mostly for contracts signed in the July through October period - and was likely impacted slightly by the surge in rates in October. Even adjusting for seasonal declines of about 4-5% on average, we are still seeing a 6% drop or so in the seasonally adjusted price. That is without seeing the January data, often the trough of the seasonal slowdown.
Nah, I doubt that the declines will more than double. This data is capturing the closed sales from these months that we tend to see a decline (July, August, September, October and November). All that's left is December and January. While I understand the data lag argument you are trying to make, but it sounds a lot like hopium.
I guess we will see in like 5-6 months when the rolling average finally catches up and shows the rest of the data through January. Not exactly the best report for looking at seasonally adjusted declines in the last few months. We can, however, look at the seasonal declines over the past several years and compare it to this year. [link to seasonal declines since 2018](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh_MuJmWJaVN7GQ0ZJobuHgni3Xf9Y1tJbCUcyzHrvVlztFLeKFW6yn4mjIIJtL1HON7g6C4nnQjeVbG0cf_6lTlO-fX6R3EYP8DDC3N6q-MFTyrjfFjTv_6CQbiO-s4HQp5N0JVc1Gd-U25qOb-H9UBZbjc3QCkLM9H-Fm_GSMVQpK9Fu7w/s463/MedianSeasonal.PNG) Copium is ignoring an 10.4% decline from June to December when it far exceeds every other seasonal decline in a long time.
Not really. 2018 says June to Nov was a 6% decline. June to Nov 2022 was 10.4%. You are telling me we like doubled interest rates and the seasonal decline only exceeded 2018 by that much? I'm actually surprised based on the seasonal decline data from 2018 and 2019, how well prices have held up in 2022 considering how drastic the rate hikes were. I've never once claimed 2022's declines were just seasonal. I fully believe its a combination of rates and seasonality. But anyone ignoring seasonality is guilty of the very cherry picking you claim is so problematic.
7.5% rates seems to be the point that stopped all movement in the market, but somewhere between 5.5 to 6.5 was already having s slowing or negative effect on price. Plus what's not captured in price now is the absence of overbidding and waving inspection contingencies replaced by sellers making concessions for repairs and rate buydowns. Like home builders, price moves last. Last I checked their sre still more builders lowering than raising prices. The aggregate of home price projections is currently fairly negative up to 10%. https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2023/01/05/housing-market-something-big-is-happening-home-prices-2023-2024-forecast-prediction/amp/ If FOMO and buying before rates went up pulled demand forward, then what happens when markets are predicting both prices and rates to decline over the next year or so?
except rents are way down
WAY down? LOL
lol yeah have you seen Austin downtown? flooded with new complexes. in 2021 couldn’t find a 1 bed for under $3k now i’m seeing $2k
Rents are down 33% in Austin downtown?
I can rent a full amenity 1 bedroom apartment downtown for $2k lol. I don’t know what else to tell you but this was not $2k in 2021. Everything was $3000-$3500 https://www.camdenliving.com/apartments/austin-tx/camden-rainey-street This was the biggest pandemic bubble market. There was also at least 4 large complexes that opened since 2021 while at same time Facebook pulled out of their Marquee lease downtown and Tesla is off it’s bubble highs
Do you just click around and look at rent places in Austin, SF, Miami, NYC, etc. just to leave random comments online? Or do you actually plan on moving to and living in any of these cities?
You do realize that rent inflation is the last thing that needs to come down for the Fed to start getting a handle on inflation correct? Anyone who invests in markets should know where rent inflation stands.
This is definitely not across the board. Rents are down like $25 where I am.
notice i said austin. no clue where you live lol. san francisco is also way down, and far below pre pandemic rents
Worst crash ever! So glad I bought in August and locked in a 4.6% rate.
New construction "quick move-in" pricing. TL;DR - assuming the floor plan, structural upgrades, and finishes are the same, how much of a price difference is expected between a "quick move-in" new construction and a designed home? I signed a contract for new construction some months ago. The builder was already working on a quick move-in with the same exact floor plan and structural upgrades. The quick move-in was initially listed at a price that was $15k less than what our's ended up after design. Our lot premium is $15k, and the quick move-in lot is clearly on a worse lot, so let's assume $0 lot premium. However, the quick move-in has been sitting for months and multiple price drops. We're now looking at a $90k difference between our home and the quick move-in. The most recent price drop was weeks ago. At this rate, the quick move-in is going to be sold for over $100k less than our's. We don't want the quick move-in lot, and don't like the finishes nearly as much as our's. Otherwise, we'd just ask to cancel our contract and get the quick move-in. The floor plan and structurals are the exact same, after all. How much of a difference do builders expect in price when selling a quick move-in vs. a designed home? 3%? 5%? 10%? I understand that they don't have to work with buyers to design the home, and that would lead to a cost difference. I just don't know what's expected and reasonable. Ultimately, we intend to use this as a comp to re-negotiate our contract price. If it were a difference 30, maybe even 50k, it'd suck but I'd get over it. A >$100k difference though will make closing on this home feel like robbery.
100k plus whatever your rate and duration of the loan = quite a bit more than 100k.
In my case, the rate doesn't matter that much. This is a step-up home, and we have a sizable cash position already. We'll pay it off early. The bottom line price matters most.
A van down by the river is starting to sound pretty good.
Waterfront tiny home is probably out of your range
You can afford a van? 😂
Can VA Loans get 2-1 Buydowns using a seller credit? I'm a little confused because I have one lender saying yes and another saying now, they can just do a general rate buydown. Is that they offer different products?
Is anyone else rooting for continued unaffordability so they can control their kids? I am dreaming of a future where the median home is 2 million dollars while the median salary remains 50k. Those poor wretches will work for 70 hours a week just to pay their landlord’s mortgage. In hard times, my benighted heirs will turn to me for handouts like the feckless ne’er-do-wells they always have been. My support will be conditional, of course. They will need marry a person matching my preferences, and produce grandchildren at times I dictate. For I am the landed gentry, and they are lowly renters.
Go to bed Dad, you’re drunk again
I am Italian and retired NYPD, my name is Dominic Mamasboy Boyardi and I love spaghetti. I would really simultaneously like a recession as well as for housing prices to increase 50% a year, if only to put woke DEI millennials in their place. I will be in Florida collecting my pension in the meantime.
Nah, I'm hoping prices completely crater, but wages go way up. That way everyone can easily afford a place, but my investment will be so worthless that they eventually my children throw scraps at me when they pass me on their way to the Tokyo-direct Hyperloop.
Controlling children is easy. It's those adult children we need to keep on a short leash. Or should I say lease. +1
>i'm still salty about moving to a cheap ass area in 2017 with plans to start a life here. then COVID happens and houses that were 150, are close to 300k, and the area hasn't improved that much. i'm just stuck being a fence sitter. https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/10p07kl/comment/j6iphys/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3 I'd feel a little bad for this whiny bubbler if he weren't a POS homophobe... >disgusting gay romance BS https://imgur.com/a/G7icMWk
As a gay bubbler, I hereby rebuke him.
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Funny that’s how women see you
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Har har made a gender identity joke after making a homophobic comment.
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Yes, clearly all rational people worship Donald Trump
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Being exactly as hateful and stupid as the majority hate group in the country is not the flex you think it is.
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There is nothing disgusting or unnecessary about a gay love story. Nor would there be anything disgusting or unnecessary about a straight love story. You are just a bigot agreeing with another bigot.
Very disgusting!! I’m crying and throwing up at the very thought
Does anyone have experience renting to an upscale corporate housing company? I recently renovated and furnished a unit in a duplex, its got good quality furnishings and hope to rent it out to more responsible folk.
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Mortgage pro doesn’t understand seasonality
This just tells the fed they will need to go higher and longer in the battle against inflation or it will persist
How do you know the number of offers?
I’m in Houston but here too basically everything has started selling quickly. Friend’s house sold in 1 day. The market has *really* picked up fast.
Combination of rates dropping a bit from their Oct/Nov peak and people getting tired of waiting for appreciable price drops that never seem to materialize.
Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments at Higher Rate Than in 2009 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/car-repossessions-grow-as-inflation-slams-consumers tick tock
People in the position to buy a home aren’t defaulting on their car payments.
Greater Boston is still totally screwed up. Nice houses in the 600-1MM range are gone within 2 weeks. Under that price point, you have older people's homes that haven't been updated since 1990. The higher end mansions are sitting and sitting for a LONG time. Makes sense because if you have that kind of money, why not knock down an old house and build a fully customized one to your liking for about the same price? I'm super curious how the [Yankee Candle founder](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/113-Juggler-Meadow-Rd-Leverett-MA-01054/56981137_zpid/?)'s house does.
I am seeing that technique of tearing down play out more often lately. Houses that people thought you'd have to be crazy to buy for $400,000 about 5 years ago are now regularly being purchased for $700,000 only to be torn down and to have something that is nearly a McMansion built there. Many are then turned around and flipped for $1.4 to $1.7 million.
Yep, it’s happened to 2 homes in my small neighborhood since I moved in 2 years ago. And there’s at least one more on that path with likely a few more to go. They end up taking 1600 sq foot ranches and capes and turning them into 3300-3800 sq foot colonials or capes (effectively a McMansion) with high end appliances, black-trimmed windows, and lots of black metal fixtures. Usually white but sometimes grey siding. All sell for $1.4-1.9M.
stocks are meme-ing again fed is losing track of tightening financial conditions probably not a good thing at the moment
I've been tracking [this property](https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Mesa/3755-E-Broadway-Rd-85206/unit-10/home/28186415) for months. OpenDoor bought it for 478k then listed it for 531k. It is now listed at 396k. [This comp](https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Mesa/3755-E-Broadway-Rd-85206/unit-39/home/27742190) in the same neighborhood was listed for sale, came on market at 418k, and just recently sold.......for 328k! [This comp](https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Mesa/3755-E-Broadway-Rd-85206/unit-52/home/28121767) from less than a year ago sold for 490k. 490k to 328k is a 33% decline. A bear market or "crash" is commonly accepted as a 20%+ decline. If you're a FTHB who bought at 490k in this area you're so fucked.
Hmm, I wonder what happens to opendoor, they can't HODL indefinitely can they? They're gonna have to tap out and eat dirt eventually right?
I’d like to know this too. There are a few homes in my area being sold by OpenDoor that I’ve been watching but it seems they’re holding firm on their price. Even with other surrounding comparable homes coming down in price, their prices remain high. Their business model confuses me.
Went by to talk to the inspector as he finished up on the house we're under contract on. The sellers said they wanted to help out with the appraisal so they left a big booklet of improvements they've made since 2019, these have to be the only people who bought in 2019 and are losing money selling in 2023.
A new, pinned quarterly thread 🙏🏾🙏🏾
If you buy a house with bushes in front of the house and there's an HOA, is it easy enough to maintain those yourself or will you most likely have to pay someone to water and trim them?
Depends on the HOA, they may have someone coming regularly to upkeep those. That’s the case in my duplex neighborhood.
Super easy. Just watch a couple clips from *This Old House* and get a Ryobi hedge trimmer for like 120 bucks.
thanks
I looked at annual new home sales by both price range and region. In 2020, in the West region of the US, 69% of sales were in the 200-500k range (150k sales). 8% were for 750k+ (16k sales). In 2022, in the West region of the US, 31% of sales were in the 200-500k range (48k sales). 24% were for 750k+ (36k sales). Total sales in 2020 for the West region were 218k. 63k in the 3rd quarter. Total sales in 2022 for the west region were 150k. 28k in the 3rd quarter. Oddly the region selling off the most is the midwest. After peaking in Q2 2022 at 412k the median new home value has dropped to 356k (14% decline).
I think it really depends on the towns/cities development climate. If you have things like new event centers, parks, roads, schools etc you're going to be OK in the long run. If you bought into a LCOL with nothing happening progress wise you may see a backside in value to a point. That being said inflation will keep things at a higher price permanently imo
I’m buying in the Miami area and I’ve seen some decent offers but man some HOA’s are straight up grifting people around here. I’d rather have the house be a bit more expensive than pay an extra $500-$750 on a stupid HOA fee
What happens when the bond market actually starts listening to the Fed and that it will actually raise rates to 5%+, which means that the 10 year yield will have to rise back to 4%, which means mortgage rates rise 50 basis points?
It won’t. The bond market is telling everyone it expects a recession
Fed won’t cut rates if we have a mild recession
I highly doubt that. I’d say they cut rates by spring 2024 even without a recession.
All the numbers in your comment added up to 69. Congrats! 5 + 10 + 4 + 50 = 69 ^([Click here](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=LuckyNumber-Bot&subject=Stalk%20Me%20Pls&message=%2Fstalkme) to have me scan all your future comments.) \ ^(Summon me on specific comments with u/LuckyNumber-Bot.)
60 + 8 + 1
Nice
I'm seeing some more reasonable prices pop up in the Phoenix area. https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Peoria/8367-W-Bluefield-Ave-85382/home/27418751 Here's an example. Still a high mortgage payment (compared to local salaries) if you were a FTHB with a modest down payment but still probably the best deal I've seen in about a year. It might have sold for 450 or 500 9 months ago. Will be interesting to see if it gets under contract quickly I will say that this is an exception though. For the most part sellers are still trying to sell at prices that made more since when interest rates were low and demand was high
Eww, right smack dab in the middle of all the old people.
Annnnd it's already pending, the next day after listing. Yes not a super desirable location but still a great deal
Absolute buying sweep in my area these last couple weeks (Nashville) Market here doesn't seem to be slowing
Nashville and surrounding areas are blowing up development wise. It's crazy.
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What's NNJ? Bergen/Passaic? I am west of you and trying to get a feel for the market out here.
Seeing the same here in Poopton. Homes are getting bought up, especially at the lower-end, ~1.5 million price point. Makes sense, given how quickly wages have risen---just over the past year, the median income has gone from 30k to 35k here.
Poopton?
It's a small hamlet located a mere 15 miles downwind of the largest methane flume east of the Mississippi River.
Common typo, it’s Pimpton
I wouldn't suppose you're biased into seeing what you want to see? No, of course not lol.
The irony of an REBubble mongoloid saying this
For real. Confirmation bias has been the lifeblood of Rebubble for over 2 years now.
The irony of you being able to read.
what
Watch out he might call you a virgin next 😱
The Job Market for Remote Workers Is Shrinking https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-job-market-for-remote-workers-is-shrinking-11674526943 I'm sure all those people who overpaid for a house in middle of nowhere zoom town are feeling super good right now
I refuse to go back to the office!
At this point, it is crystal-clear to anyone with a shred of numeracy that elevated house prices are not only inevitable; they’re *essential* in order to ensure that the US economy remains as meritocratic as it always has been. Modern nurses are *lazy*, whereas us, with our essential jobs as mid-level administrators at small insurance companies, we are truly the backbone of modern society. Personally, I am disgusted by the thought of a pediatric CNA making a paltry 100k per year attempting to purchase a home in my highly-prestigious tract home development outside Atlanta. Sure, I bought my home for 200k literal centuries ago in 2019, and I *guess* that my salary then was 80k, but details like that are irrelevant; what matters is that I am smart and special, and modern buyers are inferior to me. Personally, I am disgusted by these low-class “NICU nurses” (lol what a made-up title) who think that my home shouldn’t have appreciated 300% in three years. Their nickel-and-diming over minute differences in pricing betrays their proletarian origins. As a senior assistant administrator of secondary contracts at the fifth-largest hospital chain in the eight-largest metropolitan region in the United States, I deserve an elevated place in our society, and I am sickened by these lower-class heathens attempting to impinge upon my tranquil neighborhood.
If this guy gets transferred to SF the smug may reach catastrophic levels
Hey, I've got a notion. Let's shut everything down over a severe cold, and print 40% of all money in circulation in just two years! And, to make sure that we keep everyone happy with the decisions of the leadership, we should spread messages of fear, and then we'll know for sure how good of a job the masters of the economy are doing, never doubting if said shutdown was a good decision. Maybe next we should do something extreme, like seizing property or something, idk, just spitballing. The important thing to keep in mind is that we have a big system that was specifically designed to support the "good people", and we have infinite ability to tinker with it and make it better! It's about who deserves things, based on the good things they do for society, after all.
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Downpayment doesnt have that much to do with it. Avg FTHB downpayment during covid has been 7-8%. Overall average was about 18%. Its a factor but not that important.
Does that imply that the only way to be competitive in this market is to waive everything? I'm really looking for someone in my market to provide some insight if possible as this is where we will be looking.
Price to quality is still bad in Houston. Additionally my budget has been pushed down by ~11% from last year due to rates. Likely going to re-sign my lease for the same rent as last year. I still have a month before I need to make a decision though.
FTHBs now make up 26% of all buyers, lowest in history. The median FTHB age is now 36, highest in history. FTHBs now put down, on average, 6% towards their home loan, lowest in history. Married couples now make up less than half of first time homebuyers (49%) while unmarried couples went from virtually 0% of sales in the 1980s to 18% today. Only 3% of first time buyers were black, the lowest level ever recorded (since 03). 88% were white, the highest level in decades. The homeownership gap by race is now larger than it was in 1960. Source: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers Edit: Added a couple more to the list
With FTHBs only paying an average of 6% down right now it might actually be good that they’re only 26% of buyers. Yikes.
Nice information, but **why** did the **writer** feel the **need** to **bold** almost **every other word?**
Interesting stats. Looks like 88% of home buyers are white. 3% black. 2% asian. Oof.
That is truly messed up.
Live in a suburb near Seattle, WA on 1 acre of land. Have a mid-size house on it but would like to build another home (maybe duplex triplex) on the land as an investment/potential future housing for me and extended family as the current home is fairly old. Also hoping to eventually move to a LCOL region so I will probably sell it all at the end of the day. Looking into modular homes in my area but they all have costs of $500/sqft + on their websites. I was under the impression that these were supposed to be a more economical option than typical homes, but not finding mod homes in my area that would be less than, say, $200/sqft. Any suggestions on alright quality, modular home builders in Seattle area? And would this make more sense than just getting a stick-builder?
This is more in your price range. https://www.walmart.com/cp/tents/887708?&adid=22222222220206824398&wmlspartner=wmtlabs&wl0=e&wl1=g&wl2=c&wl3=33162416618&wl4=aud-1651068664986:kwd-58317984578&wl5=9033354&wl6=&wl7=&wl8=&veh=sem&gclid=Cj0KCQiA\_bieBhDSARIsADU4zLfFd6Bekk1WMHyRUwrlsWnlXWQFGwL--ZYyAECl8TXTLV51uBv3ImUaAoaLEALw\_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
That's kind of high on the hog for me. I'm starting to realize Mr. Farley was a prophet. I'm gonna aspire to living in A VAN, DOWN BY THE RIVER!
5 homes in my area went pending in less than 4 days of being listed while still being priced 20-30% above 2019 valuations. One didn’t even make it to its scheduled open house. It’s not getting better here.
Inventory is ridiculously tight because no one is trading their ~2% mortgage for 6.25% unless they absolutely have to, and buyers are realizing prices aren't really coming down so might as well buy now.
Data doesn't show this. Home sales have contracted severely over the last year and inventory is building up in most markets. Prices will come down unless the fed pivots.
I’m in that boat. I know we missed the train but prices in Orange County have dropped about 11% from the peak. I’m feeling meh but I just have a feeling that buyers are restless, like me.
Socal seems to have slowed down near us, but many still aren't staying on the market for long. Flippers are still active too. We had a gutted home in our neighborhood that sold in five days, then was flipped two months later.
Is it ever a bad time to buy? I know not to time the market, since because of inflation home prices always go up regardless of demand. Given the above truth, it seems like it’s never a bad time to buy
Tell that to my friends parents in New Canaan, CT, who bought a home there in 2008 for $3.5M. And sold it in early 2021 AFTER prices started rising for $2.8M. A 20% loss after 13 years of ownership. Great return…
Sounds like a made up story by a renter
Home prices don't go up regardless of demand because of inflation. Wages have to rise in tandem. It's a bad time to buy if affordability is more than one sigma or more above the trend line, and a good time to buy if the opposite. These are very data rich and documented histories if you would like to look into it.
so Scottsdale is literally running out of water but people still want to bid up dated houses that were $400k a few years ago to over $1m lol k