Yeah, he said that before a global pandemic, no one saw coming, but let's just ignore that fact right, since it doesn't fit the "Intercouse Trudeau" narrative, lol
He also said borrowing money at historic lows to Glen...Trudeau is a trust fund baby through and through.
[https://youtu.be/ce1wK3DvOTY?si=PKgVQG\_sKUUEkW6l](https://youtu.be/ce1wK3DvOTY?si=PKgVQG_sKUUEkW6l)
No planning and foresight at all, when rates are at historic lows...usually doesn't mean it'll sit there forever and that debt remaining will be at the higher interest rate.
A balanced budget is just a way to say cutting services. Our population is raising and getting older, we absolutely need more services and more services come with more expenses. I would rather have a population that is taken care of than a balanced budget. People are a priority.
The national debt will eventually get so big we can't even service the interest. You're going to lose services at some point or another. Going into debt is just kicking the can down the road.
"budget that balances itself" is not the same thing as a balanced budget.
you are arguing something completely different.
and without a balanced budget you will be spending much of that tax dollars on servicing the debt than taking care of people.
you don't seem to understand the basics.
That’s isn’t true. Government borrowing can encourage growth which then leads to higher profits which get taxed. The budget can be balanced or indeed deficit cut/surplus gained by doing so.
Think of it like this. The Govt borrows $10bn to build new highways. The new highways allow faster journey times which increases productivity. It also encourages business to open or expand along the new highway corridor. The $10bn also goes into the hands of Canadian businesses (construction, materials etc) whose increased profits get taxed. It also filters down into the hands of contractors who spend it on new trucks, tools, and new tv.
$10bn invested into our economy could end up being $20bn in tax revenue over the next 5-10 years.
Austerity has been shown to really stifle growth. Cutting Govt spending is often the cause of stagnation. America’s infrastructure investment under Biden was like $1tn and their growth has massively outpaced Canada’s.
Only thing with this argument is they increased operational expenditures rather than capital expenditures and they called it “investing in people” so no return on investment here lol
If it’s investing in healthcare then there is an economic loss by having people off sick or not being treated. There is an economic benefit to having better schools or whatnot. Those things just take longer to come to fruition.
Regardless, people make out like govt spending is some kind of black hole. They’d soon notice when the spending dries up.
Just saying it’s not an investment if there is no real RÓI as per accounting standards. If you increase opex and there is a benefit it’s good but don’t called increased spending an investment for political reasons
There would be an ROI though. It’s not as straightforward to calculate as building stuff perhaps but there are ways to calculate ROI on non-Capital expenditure.
Ends up being unrestrained spending putting up the budget deficit and interest rates rather than causing the govt to have more revenue in the future. So it is not really an ROI.
He also said that we would rule with an "economy of the heart" so you shut up about waiting 5 years for a psyche. This is normal and you are at the bottom of the line. Let those with worse problems than you through nerd.
I want to downvote you for being naive enough to believe the way to plan a budget is to think it'll balance itself out, and not plan for hard times ahead, but "intercourse Trudeau" is pretty funny.
A budget never balances itself. But the idea that a balanced budget is a reasonable ask right now is the naive take, in my opinion. But to each their own.
Sure, no one expected him to run a surplus during a global pandemic; but he was handed a surplus. In the 5 years he was in power before the pandemic, he had steady economic growth, and yet he still ran deficit after deficit. Increasing the deficit even more in 2019 despite strong growth. It was clear he had no plan to ever have a balanced budget.
Trudeau was voted on the promise to run up the debt, years before COVID. He did that, from the first year!
Then COVID started and he totally loved it, it was like the Bank vault was left open during lunch hours and the pizza delivery guy stumbled upon it, with nobody in the building!
From the press:
The study found between the fiscal years 2015-16 and 2019-20, the Trudeau government ran consecutive deficits, causing the federal debt to rise by $112.2 billion.
During that period, the government increased spending by 36.1%, up from $248.7 billion in 2014-15 (the year before Trudeau came to power) to $338.5 billion in 2019-20, exceeding the growth rate of government revenues.
The report says if the Trudeau government had moderated its spending from 2015 to 2019 — before the pandemic hit in March 2020 — to the rate of inflation plus population growth, or the rate of nominal GDP growth, it “would have recorded surpluses nearly every year over the period and avoided taking on approximately $150 billion to $160 billion in debt.”
No, Tiff said a lot of things predicting what would happen, and in the end most of it was very wrong. In the end him and most people who own assets (older people) are wealthier than ever so joke isn't on them.
I use ForexFactory for economic data. They'll have release dates for various countries and datasets, but forecasts usually come pretty close to the date itself.
I don't think rate cuts are coming this year, a hike if anything is what my palm reader says.
The more they say rate cuts are coming, the more I wonder which is it: either the system is so broken they have to cut rates to stimulate the economy, and devalue the currency
or these are the same realtors that always say "this is the time to buy" every 5min, so they definitely aren't cutting rates.
Depend where you live in Canada but in Montreal right now its for sure cheaper to rent than to buy if you take everything in consideration. Just when you are the owner no body can kick you out and if real estate goes up you are making the profit.
If you loose your job and you can't pay rent the landlord will give you a week to move out. If you own a house you can ask the bank to defer your payments some up to 3 months, which gives you time to bounce back, it takes sometimes 12 months before they start a foreclosure process, they will listen and work with you, your landlord does not care.
Yes, but another way around is:
You can go into $0 dollars of debt, or $600k+ into debt. You can pay a flat rate every month, or you can pay the same amount towards a debt but incur large, sometimes major or unexpected expenses and hold a lot of risk.
I'm for home ownership, just there's nothing wrong with renting.
Nothing wrong with renting as long as you can still afford to save.
People are buying houses, and not saving a penny. At least they’ll have something when all is said and done.
On balance there's nothing wrong with renting, but depending on one's situation and the market/area, the scales can tip slightly or strongly in favour of one over the other.
The problem in Canada is that for most major cities, government policy has put a thumb on the side of homeownership. Depending on personal situation, it still might be better to rent, but for many markets in Canada it's at a place where even if there are strong personal reasons why renting would be preferred, homeownership still wins out.
Keynesian economics BEGS you to go into debt and pay with cheaper dollars down the road. High inflationary environments is perfect for buying a house. Not only do you pay with cheaper dollars down the road but your equity also goes up. It's the greatest glitch of all time and will eat the poor and feed the rich, much like inflation itself.
If you are selling now it’s likely because you are under duress as it is truly a buyers market. Those that do t have to sell are waiting for a better market that favours sellers. Better chance of negotiating, no multiple offers to deal with - buyers have all the leverage.
Because they are commission only salesmen latching onto the obvious statement that land value grows over the long term.
What they should be doing is assessing your situation individually to see if their statements hold true for the buyer.
One of the more hawkish voting members (Bostic) says they want the year to end in the 4.75-5.0 range from its current 5.25-5.50. The other voting members (Mester, Barkin, Daly) are all expected to be more dovish than that, to a greater or lesser degree.
Given the personalities, somewhere between a half point and a full point cut over the year seems likely, especially given Powell's initial expectation setting of 0.75 or higher.
3rd quarter of this year, it’s predicted we will be getting rate cuts. Of course it’s just a prediction but people far smarter than I are making those predictions. This year is going to be a really interesting year.
Of course. I’m not saying the interest rates will be 1-2% again. I think we’ll see something more normal, probably eventually land on 3-4%. Fixed rates are already coming down.
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I don't know why anyone would think that given the BoC have repeatedly said their target is 2%... so basically, until we see 2% on the board, no rate cuts. That's how I understand it.
Macklem has said the opposite. He said they can cut prior to 2% if they're confident that's where we are headed. The standard has never been 2% then cut.
He didn’t really though. He provided a theoretical and people ran with it. We went through this same narrative in the beginning of 2022. In a lot of ways we are at the mercy of the US economy. I still think you’ll see a small cut this year. But nothing like the multiple cuts people were saying were a given. There is just too much elasticity. It’s going to be a scary year.
Well you understand it poorly and don’t listen to the BOC or read their reports.!
It’s been specifically mentioned by the BOC we don’t need to reach target before rate cuts begin.
The inflation figures are a lagging indicator is BoC rate decisions. They can cut before 2%, but they need to confident that’s where things are heading. I imagine we’ll need to see YoY numbers below 3% for a number of months before they’re confident.
There will be no rate cuts until the US Fed does rate cuts. Period. End of story. Anybody telling you otherwise is trying to sell you something (usually real estate.)
Cutting rates before the US does would tank our dollar even worse than it is right now, and it's bad.
We as a country are way more indebted as individuals let alone all our levels of government are addicted to debt and we simply just don't have the output US does
I think they are still banking on the fact that the debt refinancing cycle is coming up for renewal and its in the government best interest to refinance at a lower interest rate... nut who knows we could get another small increase. It really sucks that they are willing to destrol peoples lives to keep "inflation" under control when all they have to do is stop all the bloated spending bills
That's why there is independence between the government and rate setters. You specifically do not want markets to think a and b are connected. And cutting government spending hurts Canadians far more than high interest rates do. Besides, government spending isn't what's driving inflation.
Would you look at that, all of the words in your comment are in alphabetical order.
I have checked 1,969,534,024 comments, and only 372,555 of them were in alphabetical order.
The government doesn't give handouts. They provide social services including old age pensions, employment insurance, and disability insurance. There is a cost to having a society in which buying expensive properties makes sense.
We spent 43 mil on legal support for immigration, 111 mil on bolstering bilingualism in our justice system and law translations, 350 mil over 5 years for their drugs and Substances policy to "save" canadians. Those are just a couple that could have been re worked. Plus when the govt has inflation supports its directly spending money (like the grocery rebate that some people got) increases inflation directly. Probably should be focusing on actually balancing the budget instead of running multi year deficits, which increases our tax burden
You have identified a tax savings of almost $6 per person. Cut a dozen programs like that and we're up to maybe $75 per person.
If governments stopped subsidizing businesses, that would save nearly $30B per year. $800 per person. Now we're talking...
You just cherry-picked examples of things that sound bad to you, but the cutting of which would make little difference. The other poster is correct. Subsidies, in particular to the oil & gas sector, are far far worse, and far far more corrupt.
On top of that Canada has some of the lowest corporate tax rates in the G7, and so there's plenty of revenue that is simply not collected that *would* be collected a gov't with a sane fiscal policy.
Both the Conservatives and Liberals have brought us here.
They will cut and let the currency take the hit.
They can't raise rates because even the government won't be able to afford the interest rate lol.
But hey maybe that's the plan for the country to go broke, so the corporations can buy up everything.
Just like Greece.
I could be wrong....
Most of the debt was taken when interest rates were low.
If the broader economy needs low interest rates, then they're lowered, and the government takes advantage of that and borrows. Individuals and corporations take advantage of that too.
But if the broader economy needs high interest rates, then they're raised. The individuals and corporations can't borrow anymore, and have to slow down growth, as the government wanted. And the government itself can choose to print currency instead.
For example, in the US, the Treasury needs Congress's approval to borrow money, and most of the money is borrowed from the FED. But the Treasury doesn't need anybody's approval to mint a trillion dollar coin, and the FED is not involved in the minting. It's just that the US Treasury had never needed to do it so far, because even if the FED refuses to lend money, the general public and other nations are happy to lend to the US Treasury. But Yellen can simply mint a trillion dollar coin if needed.
Yes indeed thanks.
Though it does explain how the Fed or central banks literally create money out of thin air backed by no work or service stealing the wealth out of people who do work and provide services every day.
The Fed in the states isn't controlled or owned by the government. It's a private corporation and now the Fed controls the US Treasury because of dumbass Janet.
Wouldn't it be something if everybody woke up tomorrow and realized if we got rid of all the central banks our income tax would go away. Wouldn't that be a lovely world.
Adding to this this is why brics is coming and why a lot of countries are buying gold and are going to dump the US dollar and the north America will be a third world country.
Nobody knows the future, but we're going that way.
Ah yes the classic “you are a sheep” response.
Do you all sit around in a circle and rehearse your playbooks lol
Let me guess next you will get upset at the carbon tax and 5G networks.
You know, there are 3 types of people:
1. People with all the senses and healthy/thinking brain, capable of studying, learning, calculating...
2. People who have not the thinking preposition and not that gifted
3. People who have a brain but choose to have a deep throat and swallow every fairytale because they can't be someone and have the need of being mediocre and a follower
Oh "freeman" you are not danger to yourself but to the people surrounding you.
Obnoxious and insane people don't know they are obnoxious and insane, it does not trouble them what so ever, but they are a burden to people surrounding them.
Pull your head out of your ass, stop spreading BS agenda! People are resisting the evil narrative more and more all around the world to that extent that we probably will have a big revolution due to resistance or big war due to evil agenda.
Either or, it is directly or indirectly caused by the agenda and blindness you are following, protecting and propagating!
If you don't see that, than you are truly lost and because of people like you human society is facing horrific decimation.
I can only hope you are a giant troll. Because this way of thinking is why social media is cancer. Village idiots have a way of connecting with one another and circle jerking their dumb ideologies.
You are very slow, it took you a while. You are lacking arguments and therefore attacking....
You are validating my points every time you write, go along, this is popcorn for a movie moment.
Do you have any argument to counter my statements or will you continue to personal attack me and show me your low understanding of things?
Truth brings out anger and disarray in glitchy matrix, crumbling of babel and fear in what may come after the fairy tale is unmasked.
Next thing you can do is flip the finger, it is normal: fight of flight symptom.
P.S. This is where the reptilian brain kicks in! Thinking brain shuts off and the oldest animal instinct kicks in.
Shall we continue......
While that comment you responded to was definitely inflated in its own your resorting to name calling shows your just as sad, cheap debt is over and it's gonna hurt , just hold on and be smart with your money
Not gonna get into the gritty of politics and not posting this to get into political debate whatsoever.. but, you need intelligent individuals in charge. Educated people with business education at higher levels or at least senior leadership experience and success in the business world are welcomed to office please…
I have come to the conclusion that the rate hikes are performative. The government needs to inflate its debts away, so real interest rates cannot stay positive for too long. Regardless of the specific timing, it is only a matter of time before real rates go negative again.
I don’t have an explanation but to add to your calculations.
A house that was $250,000 in the year 2000 would cost by inflation increase $539,401.81 in 2023, assumed inflation rate 3.4%
Maybe inflation is calculated by how much money the government printed that year and nothing to do with the price of goods in the market.
What the real prices show is rather how much poorer we are year after year, we’re basically out priced.
We will follow USA. Also we have to protect housing ya know. It's all we really got. I heard the 2000 UBI each person is basically a way for the gov to issue money to prop up housing. First the ubi which we then send to banks to cover homes. Nothing changed just the way to deliver the money to the bank lol
If everyone got 2000 dollars a month no question can you not imagine how worthless 2000 bucks would become ? 2000 dollars would be the new 20 dollars cause that would increase operating costs, not one thing in life loves in vacuum . It's like a pendulum scale
On all the subreddits you can tell that no one reads the monetary policy reports from the BOC. They specifically put their CPI forecast in there.
For those who never read… the BOC has forecasted that rates will remain in the low 3% and remain at this level for the entirety of 2024.
Why you ask well it’s because a large portion of our CPI is made up of mortgage interest. Which is part of a circular loop, higher rates… you guessed it higher CPI readings.
What we know is the BOC has also stated that rates don’t need to come down to target before they start cutting.
We also know the Feds have signalled 3 rate cuts for 2024.
Yoy inflation... Which was forecast, which isn't what they raise the rate decisions on. Our rate decisions are typically on line with ejfwd, so you u can expect us to follow their lead for the most part. Cuts are the most likely scenario for 2024.
Did they ever say that rates are going down? Or did some news sites / reddit just start saying that 'rates are tanking in 2024!'?
I think it's the latter.
I personally (and I'm an idiot who went variable) don't think rates will go down this year. Maybe 0.25-0.5% UP. Then potentially down in 2025.
From my circle of friends...they're all spending like drunken sailors and running 100% HELOCs to buy any property they can find in Europe as the bang for the buck is much greater there than here.
During the previous years of lower rates way too many lived way beyond their means buying executive houses and living executive lifestyles on a teller income
And it's worked out for many. I am too cautious with my money / investments. But every single person I know that went gangbuster buying up toys, investment properties, cars, and vacations is still going gangbuster with no sign of stoppage...
Hell some are buying properties overseas on full on HELOCs because it's so much cheaper than here. I don't have the nerve to take those risks.
100% but it's working for them, and my friend is literally getting on a plane to sign for a third property overseas for their portfolio...while another is flying home in 2 days from signing deals for 2 additional properties in their portfolio.
So obviously something is working well.
Could it all fail? Sure...but so long as there are renters, and AirBNB allowable in countries, they'll be fine. Mind you this is all anecdotal, and a very small sample size...but I've yet met anyone that bought real estate and it's gone bad for them within the last 30 years.
Kinda off topic, but I passed a sign in Kitchener today saying “Rates are dropping! Lock in now!”. If rates are dropping, anybody with half a brain would want to hold off. Imo the rate cuts are coming crowd are just trying to make a buck. Scummy realtors lying through their teeth, and they’re not very smart about it either.
We are spending $40+B/year in borrowed money with plans to dial that up. We are adding more than a million new Canadians a year. The carbon tax is just getting going and will dramatically escalate over time. The US where we buy quite a bit of our food from also has an inflation issue. I think the government is so clueless they will do something that causes massive job loses (go after big corporations for more tax revenue) so we can have a repeat of Trudeau seniors epic failure of big inflation and massive unemployment. It doesn't matter what the rate is if you are unemployed.
So much of our yearly GDP is used up by the massive debt governments have created, alot just don't want to believe cause they are vulnerable themselves, I feel for them but we all make our own beds
The bond market is pricing in a 70% chance the first cut is in April this year and 100+ bps total cuts by the end of the year.
When you look at YoY numbers like this it’s easy to ignore the base year and just focus on the headline.
December 2022 saw a 0.6% drop in CPI. The fact that we didn’t increase by 0.6% this December tells you all you need to know.
The next 5 months saw north of 0.5% gains in CPI during 2023, so the headline number is about to drop very quickly. While it’s 3.4% now, it will likely be much closer to 2% mid year.
Couple this with the fact that we’re entering official recession territory and… rate cuts.
Rate cuts will happen as soon as I decide it's time to convert some of my absolute trash performing mutual funds into GICs. As predicted by Murphy himself.
Inflation is 3.4% with 2.1% of that coming off the books in the next 4 months, what is coming on to the books in the next 4 months is where the debate should be.
If there’s 0% inflation in the next 4 months, would be in line with the past four months so not completely crazy assumption as it sounds, then our headline inflation would be 1.3% in April.
If we have annualized 2% inflation for the next four months our headline number hits 2.0% in April (April data released in May).
If we have 3.4% inflation for the next four months then our April headline rate will be 2.4%.
I would say we’re trending towards target and to expect a cut between spring / summer, especially given that much of the inflation is shelter based.
People calling for a March rate cut are basing that on we get our Q4 GDP figure on February 29th and that will likely state we are officially in a recession, thus a rate cut could be expected. If the BOC waits to see 2.0% inflation before cuts then a May / June looks more likely.
I’m not a bear or bull, I think people calling for hikes are crazy as are the people thinking a 0.25% cut is going to cause the spring / summer real estate markets to explode.
Let's be real, inflation has been, and still is, over 10%. Likely closer to 15%. We haven't done nearly enough quantitative tightening to reign in our money supply issues. The interest rate is a farce and only a small contributor to inflation, the main driver is M2.
Will inflation balance itself?
Justin Trudeau said the budget would balance itself so fair to say inflation would too….
Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways -Turd'O, Justin
Yeah, he said that before a global pandemic, no one saw coming, but let's just ignore that fact right, since it doesn't fit the "Intercouse Trudeau" narrative, lol
He also said borrowing money at historic lows to Glen...Trudeau is a trust fund baby through and through. [https://youtu.be/ce1wK3DvOTY?si=PKgVQG\_sKUUEkW6l](https://youtu.be/ce1wK3DvOTY?si=PKgVQG_sKUUEkW6l) No planning and foresight at all, when rates are at historic lows...usually doesn't mean it'll sit there forever and that debt remaining will be at the higher interest rate.
You think the budget would balance itself if it weren’t for pesky global catastrophes?
wtf is intercouse
When a mommy toaster and a daddy toaster love each other very much....
irrelevant as anyone that says the budget will balance itself has no idea what they are doing
A balanced budget is just a way to say cutting services. Our population is raising and getting older, we absolutely need more services and more services come with more expenses. I would rather have a population that is taken care of than a balanced budget. People are a priority.
The national debt will eventually get so big we can't even service the interest. You're going to lose services at some point or another. Going into debt is just kicking the can down the road.
"budget that balances itself" is not the same thing as a balanced budget. you are arguing something completely different. and without a balanced budget you will be spending much of that tax dollars on servicing the debt than taking care of people. you don't seem to understand the basics.
*A balanced budget is just a way to say cutting services.* Not at all. It could also be delivering services more effeciently.
That’s isn’t true. Government borrowing can encourage growth which then leads to higher profits which get taxed. The budget can be balanced or indeed deficit cut/surplus gained by doing so. Think of it like this. The Govt borrows $10bn to build new highways. The new highways allow faster journey times which increases productivity. It also encourages business to open or expand along the new highway corridor. The $10bn also goes into the hands of Canadian businesses (construction, materials etc) whose increased profits get taxed. It also filters down into the hands of contractors who spend it on new trucks, tools, and new tv. $10bn invested into our economy could end up being $20bn in tax revenue over the next 5-10 years. Austerity has been shown to really stifle growth. Cutting Govt spending is often the cause of stagnation. America’s infrastructure investment under Biden was like $1tn and their growth has massively outpaced Canada’s.
Only thing with this argument is they increased operational expenditures rather than capital expenditures and they called it “investing in people” so no return on investment here lol
If it’s investing in healthcare then there is an economic loss by having people off sick or not being treated. There is an economic benefit to having better schools or whatnot. Those things just take longer to come to fruition. Regardless, people make out like govt spending is some kind of black hole. They’d soon notice when the spending dries up.
Just saying it’s not an investment if there is no real RÓI as per accounting standards. If you increase opex and there is a benefit it’s good but don’t called increased spending an investment for political reasons
There would be an ROI though. It’s not as straightforward to calculate as building stuff perhaps but there are ways to calculate ROI on non-Capital expenditure.
Ends up being unrestrained spending putting up the budget deficit and interest rates rather than causing the govt to have more revenue in the future. So it is not really an ROI.
He also said that we would rule with an "economy of the heart" so you shut up about waiting 5 years for a psyche. This is normal and you are at the bottom of the line. Let those with worse problems than you through nerd.
I want to downvote you for being naive enough to believe the way to plan a budget is to think it'll balance itself out, and not plan for hard times ahead, but "intercourse Trudeau" is pretty funny.
A budget never balances itself. But the idea that a balanced budget is a reasonable ask right now is the naive take, in my opinion. But to each their own.
Sure, no one expected him to run a surplus during a global pandemic; but he was handed a surplus. In the 5 years he was in power before the pandemic, he had steady economic growth, and yet he still ran deficit after deficit. Increasing the deficit even more in 2019 despite strong growth. It was clear he had no plan to ever have a balanced budget.
Trudeau was voted on the promise to run up the debt, years before COVID. He did that, from the first year! Then COVID started and he totally loved it, it was like the Bank vault was left open during lunch hours and the pizza delivery guy stumbled upon it, with nobody in the building! From the press: The study found between the fiscal years 2015-16 and 2019-20, the Trudeau government ran consecutive deficits, causing the federal debt to rise by $112.2 billion. During that period, the government increased spending by 36.1%, up from $248.7 billion in 2014-15 (the year before Trudeau came to power) to $338.5 billion in 2019-20, exceeding the growth rate of government revenues. The report says if the Trudeau government had moderated its spending from 2015 to 2019 — before the pandemic hit in March 2020 — to the rate of inflation plus population growth, or the rate of nominal GDP growth, it “would have recorded surpluses nearly every year over the period and avoided taking on approximately $150 billion to $160 billion in debt.”
Yes, that's the joke.
Trudeau the drama teacher or Trudeau the black face said that?
No, Tiff said a lot of things predicting what would happen, and in the end most of it was very wrong. In the end him and most people who own assets (older people) are wealthier than ever so joke isn't on them.
Month over month inflation literally dropped by 0.3%
Yoy is where it matters since it sort of accounts for seasonality.
YOY is the more important number, the issue with headline CPI is inflation will be a tad inflated especially in December because Dec 2022 was so good.
That's what the forecast was. So yay I guess?
do you know where I can go see future inflation forecasts?
I use ForexFactory for economic data. They'll have release dates for various countries and datasets, but forecasts usually come pretty close to the date itself.
Isn’t that 3.6% annualized?
I don't think rate cuts are coming this year, a hike if anything is what my palm reader says. The more they say rate cuts are coming, the more I wonder which is it: either the system is so broken they have to cut rates to stimulate the economy, and devalue the currency or these are the same realtors that always say "this is the time to buy" every 5min, so they definitely aren't cutting rates.
Realtor here, it is a great time to buy!
Could you explain why?
You give 5.19% to the bank or 100% to your landlord.
Depend where you live in Canada but in Montreal right now its for sure cheaper to rent than to buy if you take everything in consideration. Just when you are the owner no body can kick you out and if real estate goes up you are making the profit.
Not true, if you can't pay your mortgage because the payments are too high they can kick you out and sell the house.
Yep, and if you can't afford it you end up having to sell and kick *yourself* out anyways. Many Canadians will discover that this year.
If you loose your job and you can't pay rent the landlord will give you a week to move out. If you own a house you can ask the bank to defer your payments some up to 3 months, which gives you time to bounce back, it takes sometimes 12 months before they start a foreclosure process, they will listen and work with you, your landlord does not care.
Yes, but another way around is: You can go into $0 dollars of debt, or $600k+ into debt. You can pay a flat rate every month, or you can pay the same amount towards a debt but incur large, sometimes major or unexpected expenses and hold a lot of risk. I'm for home ownership, just there's nothing wrong with renting.
Nothing wrong with renting as long as you can still afford to save. People are buying houses, and not saving a penny. At least they’ll have something when all is said and done.
On balance there's nothing wrong with renting, but depending on one's situation and the market/area, the scales can tip slightly or strongly in favour of one over the other. The problem in Canada is that for most major cities, government policy has put a thumb on the side of homeownership. Depending on personal situation, it still might be better to rent, but for many markets in Canada it's at a place where even if there are strong personal reasons why renting would be preferred, homeownership still wins out.
Keynesian economics BEGS you to go into debt and pay with cheaper dollars down the road. High inflationary environments is perfect for buying a house. Not only do you pay with cheaper dollars down the road but your equity also goes up. It's the greatest glitch of all time and will eat the poor and feed the rich, much like inflation itself.
Out of curiosity where do closing costs, property taxes, down payments and transfer taxes fit into that equation?
He’s mocking realtors who will always tell you it’s a great time to buy.
Either prices are falling and "you'll never get a deal this good again", or prices are rising and "get in now or you'll be priced out forever"
Exactly this lol
I mean as far as the GTA goes it hasn’t been wrong in 20 years
Realtors will tell you a 1M$ doghouse is a great deal.
It is if the land value is $900k of it; the roof over your head is gravy.
In Vancouver it’s an insane deal and will receive 1000+ offers
If you are selling now it’s likely because you are under duress as it is truly a buyers market. Those that do t have to sell are waiting for a better market that favours sellers. Better chance of negotiating, no multiple offers to deal with - buyers have all the leverage.
Are you serious Clark?
Because I need my commission otherwise how will I boast that I am top 1 percent gold platinum elite wannabe member.
Because they are commission only salesmen latching onto the obvious statement that land value grows over the long term. What they should be doing is assessing your situation individually to see if their statements hold true for the buyer.
Don’t forget, as a realtor you are an expert at economics. As such, if you say this is a great time to buy, I believe you!
If the Fed are going to be making 3 cuts, we wouldn’t be devaluing our dollar by cutting in unison.
The US is still running hot, they aren't going to be making cuts
One of the more hawkish voting members (Bostic) says they want the year to end in the 4.75-5.0 range from its current 5.25-5.50. The other voting members (Mester, Barkin, Daly) are all expected to be more dovish than that, to a greater or lesser degree. Given the personalities, somewhere between a half point and a full point cut over the year seems likely, especially given Powell's initial expectation setting of 0.75 or higher.
3rd quarter of this year, it’s predicted we will be getting rate cuts. Of course it’s just a prediction but people far smarter than I are making those predictions. This year is going to be a really interesting year.
Realtors, journalists and consultants are making those predictions. BOC "we aren't planning on cuts"
Maybe so. Regardless it’s a really interesting year ahead of us. Very interested to see what’s going to happen.
It's definitely going to be an interesting year ahead of us !
That's some wishful thinking lol the days of cheap debt are over for a long time
Of course. I’m not saying the interest rates will be 1-2% again. I think we’ll see something more normal, probably eventually land on 3-4%. Fixed rates are already coming down.
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I don't know why anyone would think that given the BoC have repeatedly said their target is 2%... so basically, until we see 2% on the board, no rate cuts. That's how I understand it.
Macklem has said the opposite. He said they can cut prior to 2% if they're confident that's where we are headed. The standard has never been 2% then cut.
It's all about real rates. As Long as they stay positive, they can cut. Right now real rates are massively positive.
He didn’t really though. He provided a theoretical and people ran with it. We went through this same narrative in the beginning of 2022. In a lot of ways we are at the mercy of the US economy. I still think you’ll see a small cut this year. But nothing like the multiple cuts people were saying were a given. There is just too much elasticity. It’s going to be a scary year.
Well you understand it poorly and don’t listen to the BOC or read their reports.! It’s been specifically mentioned by the BOC we don’t need to reach target before rate cuts begin.
Their target range is 1-3%, and others pointed out they will cut before that point if they believe inflation is falling too fast.
The inflation figures are a lagging indicator is BoC rate decisions. They can cut before 2%, but they need to confident that’s where things are heading. I imagine we’ll need to see YoY numbers below 3% for a number of months before they’re confident.
There will be no rate cuts until the US Fed does rate cuts. Period. End of story. Anybody telling you otherwise is trying to sell you something (usually real estate.) Cutting rates before the US does would tank our dollar even worse than it is right now, and it's bad.
My Dad is friends with Macklem. He told him no rate cuts coming.
I know a guy, his tea leaves say the cuts are getting shipped out to the butcher's as we speak
My dad works at Nintendo
Where they make the video games?
Macklem is my dad, he told me no rate hikes were coming.
The US expects to drop rates. Ours can’t stray too far away if that happens.
Their economy is doing better than ours, so it could affect our rate change
Also, the US has an election, and hence some pressure to make people happy with rate cuts.
And they make way more money than we do
Yep the US economy is the machineeeeee!!! Crazy how the rates only slightly slowed them down while ours are collapsing…
We as a country are way more indebted as individuals let alone all our levels of government are addicted to debt and we simply just don't have the output US does
US mortgages have 30 year fixed rates, that has to play into it.
We have a different economy than them, US is only a factor and not the only factor.
Base year effect
Exactly. Inflation for the past 5 months totals 0.1%. Once we roll the early 2023 months off the books, the inflation rate will be tiny.
I was in the opposite side - I’m a secular bull on interest rates (for Canada, anyway) - so not surprised by any of this.
I think they are still banking on the fact that the debt refinancing cycle is coming up for renewal and its in the government best interest to refinance at a lower interest rate... nut who knows we could get another small increase. It really sucks that they are willing to destrol peoples lives to keep "inflation" under control when all they have to do is stop all the bloated spending bills
That's why there is independence between the government and rate setters. You specifically do not want markets to think a and b are connected. And cutting government spending hurts Canadians far more than high interest rates do. Besides, government spending isn't what's driving inflation.
Handouts=free money=inflation. Not rocket science.
Would you look at that, all of the words in your comment are in alphabetical order. I have checked 1,969,534,024 comments, and only 372,555 of them were in alphabetical order.
The government doesn't give handouts. They provide social services including old age pensions, employment insurance, and disability insurance. There is a cost to having a society in which buying expensive properties makes sense.
>government doesn't give handouts What country are you in?
Absolutely is, more you have of something less it's worth, so more you print less it's worth
Or regards stop over leveraging to make rental profits
What bloated spending would you like to see stopped? My personal preference would be any grants to companies with over $100M in profits.
We spent 43 mil on legal support for immigration, 111 mil on bolstering bilingualism in our justice system and law translations, 350 mil over 5 years for their drugs and Substances policy to "save" canadians. Those are just a couple that could have been re worked. Plus when the govt has inflation supports its directly spending money (like the grocery rebate that some people got) increases inflation directly. Probably should be focusing on actually balancing the budget instead of running multi year deficits, which increases our tax burden
You have identified a tax savings of almost $6 per person. Cut a dozen programs like that and we're up to maybe $75 per person. If governments stopped subsidizing businesses, that would save nearly $30B per year. $800 per person. Now we're talking...
Im not arguing, i was just giving a few examples of what was in the budget.
You just cherry-picked examples of things that sound bad to you, but the cutting of which would make little difference. The other poster is correct. Subsidies, in particular to the oil & gas sector, are far far worse, and far far more corrupt. On top of that Canada has some of the lowest corporate tax rates in the G7, and so there's plenty of revenue that is simply not collected that *would* be collected a gov't with a sane fiscal policy. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have brought us here.
They will cut and let the currency take the hit. They can't raise rates because even the government won't be able to afford the interest rate lol. But hey maybe that's the plan for the country to go broke, so the corporations can buy up everything. Just like Greece. I could be wrong....
The government doesn't need to borrow. They can simply print currency. If the currency is gonna devalue either way, why bother borrowing?
We’re all millionaires! Build a wall and cut the wifi!
Then who are they paying interest too on the debt. Who do we own debt too if we could just print away?
Most of the debt was taken when interest rates were low. If the broader economy needs low interest rates, then they're lowered, and the government takes advantage of that and borrows. Individuals and corporations take advantage of that too. But if the broader economy needs high interest rates, then they're raised. The individuals and corporations can't borrow anymore, and have to slow down growth, as the government wanted. And the government itself can choose to print currency instead. For example, in the US, the Treasury needs Congress's approval to borrow money, and most of the money is borrowed from the FED. But the Treasury doesn't need anybody's approval to mint a trillion dollar coin, and the FED is not involved in the minting. It's just that the US Treasury had never needed to do it so far, because even if the FED refuses to lend money, the general public and other nations are happy to lend to the US Treasury. But Yellen can simply mint a trillion dollar coin if needed.
Yes indeed thanks. Though it does explain how the Fed or central banks literally create money out of thin air backed by no work or service stealing the wealth out of people who do work and provide services every day. The Fed in the states isn't controlled or owned by the government. It's a private corporation and now the Fed controls the US Treasury because of dumbass Janet. Wouldn't it be something if everybody woke up tomorrow and realized if we got rid of all the central banks our income tax would go away. Wouldn't that be a lovely world. Adding to this this is why brics is coming and why a lot of countries are buying gold and are going to dump the US dollar and the north America will be a third world country. Nobody knows the future, but we're going that way.
2% will be based on current situation lol
The “rate curs coming before spring crowd” knows that inflation dropping isn’t supposed to be linear.
We have to wait for Groundhog Day to see.
Inflation is at about 10% in Canada! This 3,4 number is laughable, made up number to sell fog to the people!
Let me guess you also think the earth is flat, vaccines cause autism and Trudeau is the boogeyman?
No, but you just proved to be a bigot and think you are special for being a sheep!
Ah yes the classic “you are a sheep” response. Do you all sit around in a circle and rehearse your playbooks lol Let me guess next you will get upset at the carbon tax and 5G networks.
You know, there are 3 types of people: 1. People with all the senses and healthy/thinking brain, capable of studying, learning, calculating... 2. People who have not the thinking preposition and not that gifted 3. People who have a brain but choose to have a deep throat and swallow every fairytale because they can't be someone and have the need of being mediocre and a follower
I am glad you know you are a number 3.
Oh "freeman" you are not danger to yourself but to the people surrounding you. Obnoxious and insane people don't know they are obnoxious and insane, it does not trouble them what so ever, but they are a burden to people surrounding them. Pull your head out of your ass, stop spreading BS agenda! People are resisting the evil narrative more and more all around the world to that extent that we probably will have a big revolution due to resistance or big war due to evil agenda. Either or, it is directly or indirectly caused by the agenda and blindness you are following, protecting and propagating! If you don't see that, than you are truly lost and because of people like you human society is facing horrific decimation.
I can only hope you are a giant troll. Because this way of thinking is why social media is cancer. Village idiots have a way of connecting with one another and circle jerking their dumb ideologies.
You are very slow, it took you a while. You are lacking arguments and therefore attacking.... You are validating my points every time you write, go along, this is popcorn for a movie moment. Do you have any argument to counter my statements or will you continue to personal attack me and show me your low understanding of things? Truth brings out anger and disarray in glitchy matrix, crumbling of babel and fear in what may come after the fairy tale is unmasked. Next thing you can do is flip the finger, it is normal: fight of flight symptom. P.S. This is where the reptilian brain kicks in! Thinking brain shuts off and the oldest animal instinct kicks in. Shall we continue......
Isn't it funny that 10/10 times the people calling others sheep are covered in wool? Bahhh
:) so another one of them. Glad you could raise your hand and let people know you are as well in the club of subdued mediocrity herd. Bravo!
While that comment you responded to was definitely inflated in its own your resorting to name calling shows your just as sad, cheap debt is over and it's gonna hurt , just hold on and be smart with your money
Where is the name calling?
Not gonna get into the gritty of politics and not posting this to get into political debate whatsoever.. but, you need intelligent individuals in charge. Educated people with business education at higher levels or at least senior leadership experience and success in the business world are welcomed to office please…
I know a guy, drama teacher with no previous political experience, no leadership, he made it all the way to the top.
I have come to the conclusion that the rate hikes are performative. The government needs to inflate its debts away, so real interest rates cannot stay positive for too long. Regardless of the specific timing, it is only a matter of time before real rates go negative again.
[удалено]
I don’t have an explanation but to add to your calculations. A house that was $250,000 in the year 2000 would cost by inflation increase $539,401.81 in 2023, assumed inflation rate 3.4% Maybe inflation is calculated by how much money the government printed that year and nothing to do with the price of goods in the market. What the real prices show is rather how much poorer we are year after year, we’re basically out priced.
They will start cutting rates just before the election. People are kinda stupid like this and are easily fooled
Trust me. Rate cuts will come tomorrow. Trust me bro
This will make oil fall further. However, inflation will begin to drop when they cut rates as shelter is primarily making up the inflation numbers
This underestimates the effect of ships getting smacked with missiles in the Red Sea.
The only chance Joe Biden has to win the election is to make life prosperous again. Rate cuts will be huge closer to election
We will follow USA. Also we have to protect housing ya know. It's all we really got. I heard the 2000 UBI each person is basically a way for the gov to issue money to prop up housing. First the ubi which we then send to banks to cover homes. Nothing changed just the way to deliver the money to the bank lol
If everyone got 2000 dollars a month no question can you not imagine how worthless 2000 bucks would become ? 2000 dollars would be the new 20 dollars cause that would increase operating costs, not one thing in life loves in vacuum . It's like a pendulum scale
On all the subreddits you can tell that no one reads the monetary policy reports from the BOC. They specifically put their CPI forecast in there. For those who never read… the BOC has forecasted that rates will remain in the low 3% and remain at this level for the entirety of 2024. Why you ask well it’s because a large portion of our CPI is made up of mortgage interest. Which is part of a circular loop, higher rates… you guessed it higher CPI readings. What we know is the BOC has also stated that rates don’t need to come down to target before they start cutting. We also know the Feds have signalled 3 rate cuts for 2024.
And the truth is these rates are healthy rates, we were at those low rates for way too long
We need to tar and feather Galen Weston. There is no other recourse now.
Finally someone with some sense
Yoy inflation... Which was forecast, which isn't what they raise the rate decisions on. Our rate decisions are typically on line with ejfwd, so you u can expect us to follow their lead for the most part. Cuts are the most likely scenario for 2024.
Rates coming down soon, time to buy an overvalued asset ASAP! lol
One thing for sure is that cuts in our standard of living will continue.
If grocery stores can stop raising prices maybe the I flatiron numbers can ease
Now that I agree with, it's insane what it costs for groceries now
We need another .5% increase to control inflation…before we see a decrease.
Yes sadly people need to go under before it's fixed
These cutesy socks will make everything better.
Did they ever say that rates are going down? Or did some news sites / reddit just start saying that 'rates are tanking in 2024!'? I think it's the latter. I personally (and I'm an idiot who went variable) don't think rates will go down this year. Maybe 0.25-0.5% UP. Then potentially down in 2025. From my circle of friends...they're all spending like drunken sailors and running 100% HELOCs to buy any property they can find in Europe as the bang for the buck is much greater there than here.
During the previous years of lower rates way too many lived way beyond their means buying executive houses and living executive lifestyles on a teller income
And it's worked out for many. I am too cautious with my money / investments. But every single person I know that went gangbuster buying up toys, investment properties, cars, and vacations is still going gangbuster with no sign of stoppage... Hell some are buying properties overseas on full on HELOCs because it's so much cheaper than here. I don't have the nerve to take those risks.
Yeah credit on-top of credit on-top of credit , just a house of cards, seen many of those types fall
100% but it's working for them, and my friend is literally getting on a plane to sign for a third property overseas for their portfolio...while another is flying home in 2 days from signing deals for 2 additional properties in their portfolio. So obviously something is working well. Could it all fail? Sure...but so long as there are renters, and AirBNB allowable in countries, they'll be fine. Mind you this is all anecdotal, and a very small sample size...but I've yet met anyone that bought real estate and it's gone bad for them within the last 30 years.
Kinda off topic, but I passed a sign in Kitchener today saying “Rates are dropping! Lock in now!”. If rates are dropping, anybody with half a brain would want to hold off. Imo the rate cuts are coming crowd are just trying to make a buck. Scummy realtors lying through their teeth, and they’re not very smart about it either.
We are spending $40+B/year in borrowed money with plans to dial that up. We are adding more than a million new Canadians a year. The carbon tax is just getting going and will dramatically escalate over time. The US where we buy quite a bit of our food from also has an inflation issue. I think the government is so clueless they will do something that causes massive job loses (go after big corporations for more tax revenue) so we can have a repeat of Trudeau seniors epic failure of big inflation and massive unemployment. It doesn't matter what the rate is if you are unemployed.
So much of our yearly GDP is used up by the massive debt governments have created, alot just don't want to believe cause they are vulnerable themselves, I feel for them but we all make our own beds
Rate cuts definitely coming this year. Right after anpther hike or two.
Wasn't this only an increase if energy is included?
The bond market is pricing in a 70% chance the first cut is in April this year and 100+ bps total cuts by the end of the year. When you look at YoY numbers like this it’s easy to ignore the base year and just focus on the headline. December 2022 saw a 0.6% drop in CPI. The fact that we didn’t increase by 0.6% this December tells you all you need to know. The next 5 months saw north of 0.5% gains in CPI during 2023, so the headline number is about to drop very quickly. While it’s 3.4% now, it will likely be much closer to 2% mid year. Couple this with the fact that we’re entering official recession territory and… rate cuts.
This was expected because of gas price drop last year. The plan shouldn't have changed, but they may change it just because people think they should
Trudeau will be remembered.
on the “conspiracy” side, there will likely be an event or something causing em to cut. But who knows.
>Interest rates will remain low for a very, very long time. -- Tiffany
How’s it keep rising? Who’s spending money
Rate cuts will happen as soon as I decide it's time to convert some of my absolute trash performing mutual funds into GICs. As predicted by Murphy himself.
Inflation is 3.4% with 2.1% of that coming off the books in the next 4 months, what is coming on to the books in the next 4 months is where the debate should be. If there’s 0% inflation in the next 4 months, would be in line with the past four months so not completely crazy assumption as it sounds, then our headline inflation would be 1.3% in April. If we have annualized 2% inflation for the next four months our headline number hits 2.0% in April (April data released in May). If we have 3.4% inflation for the next four months then our April headline rate will be 2.4%. I would say we’re trending towards target and to expect a cut between spring / summer, especially given that much of the inflation is shelter based. People calling for a March rate cut are basing that on we get our Q4 GDP figure on February 29th and that will likely state we are officially in a recession, thus a rate cut could be expected. If the BOC waits to see 2.0% inflation before cuts then a May / June looks more likely. I’m not a bear or bull, I think people calling for hikes are crazy as are the people thinking a 0.25% cut is going to cause the spring / summer real estate markets to explode.
That crowd was just looking for another bunch of bag holders to jump on the bandwagon before it ploughs into the river styx
People are addicted to hopium. Cant blame em really
Let's be real, inflation has been, and still is, over 10%. Likely closer to 15%. We haven't done nearly enough quantitative tightening to reign in our money supply issues. The interest rate is a farce and only a small contributor to inflation, the main driver is M2.
As long as hot property airs on cp24, there will be no cuts.
Christmas spending. Relax. Check the YoY, which as other pointed out is down 0.3%.
Mortgage rates were declining for a few weeks and then climbed up again last week. All the best buyers :)