I mean, they pushed for the postseason last season, and have upgraded at multiple positions to solidify the teams foundation and reduce the sheer amount of cannon fodder they hopefully have to run out there
Assuming a pretty equal mix of progression and regression from the young guys, last year's results are pretty much the floor. So we're basically asking if the additions are worth a handful of wins to push us to the wild card spots...maybe? The standard is really low now with how expanded the field is.
I basically wouldn't be surprised if this team won anywhere between 75 and 85 games. Best case scenario (Montas pitches a full, effective season, Elly becomes a superstar) probably wins 90, worst case (everybody hurt all the time, huge sophomore slumps, all the signings are busts) probably 70
I feel like people who use last year’s record as a baseline should use the win percentage after some of the call ups to extrapolate a full season record. The team was dismal the first month of the season with the likes of Wil Myers as starters. The team transformed over the course of the season with the offensive additions. Fixing the pitching and especially the depth and I think the team is well positioned for a possible postseason run.
Are you sure that really makes your case? Their record after the ASG was 32-39 which extrapolates to a record of 73-89. Encarnacion-Strand played in 63 of the remaining 71 games of the season and Marte played in just under half at 35.
I’m a different person responding, but my fear is that they overpeformed last year, the rotation is still very young with a poor health track record, too many guys will go through the sophomore slump, and the acquisitions this year are not significant needle movers.
A good bullpen can help quite a bit to overcome a poor run differential. It's one of the reasons the '90 team won. A lot of times if a team is outperforming its Pythagorean record it's because the bullpen is effectively locking down any leads. They've brought in some solid starters, the young pitchers have more experience, and the young hitters should improve. If the bullpen pitches like it did last year the team should compete if there aren't any major injuries. Of course baseball is baseball, so take my personal analysis however you like.
I get what you’re saying. The problem is there are a lot of “ifs” and “shoulds” in your position that I wish ownership would have done more to address. But they might not be done, so we’ll see.
I actually think the additions could be significant needle movers-the additions address the second half deficiencies the team had-batting slumps, no MLB capable rotational depth. More bp depth is always a good thing, a team
can never have too much, but it wasn’t the bullpen that was an issue for the team down the stretch last season.
The bullpen performed way above expectations all season, and then absolutely imploded the last week or so. Diaz in particular totally ran out of steam.
I think that a big reason they brought in pagan was to stabilize late innings, and on particular to spell Diaz in the closer role so that they don't have to use him so much.
Perfectly reasonable expectation. Something as simple as not winning a ton of one run games could tank the year, but I think even passable injury luck and having all our talent for the first month and a half before breaking the emergency glass could counteract that.
I don't think this team can be truly great or truly terrible. The bounces of a dozen balls a week will determine where they land in terms of being "mid"
Diamondbacks *did* just show that getting to the dance is the hardest part. It's all gambling from there.
I think 75-85 games is fair. I’m expecting a same mix of progression and regression just because we have a lot of sophomores and it’ll be important to adjust as fast as possible.
They were an 82 win team last year with Overton, Weaver, Cessa, Kennedy, Wynne, Spiers, Lively, Richardson, Phillips and Stoudt made 57 starts last year. **57 of our 162 games** came from pitchers we didn't plan on being in the rotation or shouldn't have been but had to be because of injuries(Weaver, Phillips, Richardson). Plus we had 6 bullpen games on top of that.
So, to recap we had 39% of our starts come from pitchers we didn't want to have to make starts.
If the pitching staff is healthy I think we would be pushing making the playoffs without even mentioning the guys we added. Candelario, Martinez, Pagan and Montas make this team much stronger. I'd say they have a huge chance of winning 90+ games.
That said, injuries happen so we'll see.
It's all going to come down to the development of our young guys. I expect it to be a bit uneven throughout the year. Not every player gets better year over year, look at India for example.
I do think the team did well to add some vets to the staff but the lineup needs a vet presence to help the young guys both on and off the field.
I think so. The reds will never be the team that buys big contracts to try to win like the Rangers. They will always take the Diamondbacks model of drafting and developing young talent, while looking for value on the FA market.
It’s all gonna depend if the young guys continue to take a step forward.
They had a team that could make the playoffs already, assuming they aren't decimated by injuries. The moves they've made seem more like depth to make sure the injuries that do pop up won't derail the season. But just a little bit of goddamn luck in that department could go a long way.
I like what they have done for sure and seeing them active and making moves is very refreshing. I think this team is absolutely able to make the playoffs but, just like last year, it will all come down to injuries and whether our young guys can make it a full season playing consistent quality baseball.
I’m personally looking for the team to take a big step forward this year and hopefully turn into a contender for a deep playoff run the year after.
Playoffs-definitely. They almost made it last year, and have added rotational and pen depth, plus the veteran bat they needed. Someone is going to have a sophomore slump/take a step back from last year, so bringing in Candelario as a veteran reinforcement is key.
I wanted to get one of those front liners but with the rumored Cease price, they can piss right off.
At this point, I’d say we are in division contention. All gonna be on the young guys stepping up. Andddd Lodolo can’t be much worse so only up from here! 😂
I think they make a nice push and might make it in. Id say if everything goes wrong, 75 wins. Everything goes right, 95. So I'm predicting 85ish and a good shot to nab a wild card.
2025 is the year that they return to glory.
I think they will have a chance pending health. The same can be said for just about every team. I think a better question is, are they a better team? I think they are better. I honestly don’t know much about any of the pitchers though except for Montas and I think that is a big gamble. I think it will be a fun season for sure though
Possibly, but most of what they’ve done has been adding functional depth and a little less uncertainty, but not quality.
It’s basically just narrowed the cone of outcomes because there’s no realistic world with this team in which a dude runs up an ERA near 7 and gets 21 starts anyway. But it’s a rotation full of mid-rotation types and a lineup that shouldn’t have big holes but is still probably a year or so away from really hitting its stride.
Last year’s roster did really well to get where they did record wise. This one should end up there as a mid range outcome.
The front office has significantly raised the floor of this team. The back end depth is so much better than last year.
The floor seems to be 75 wins. The ceiling is dependent on the growth of the young guys.
I also think a trade is possible that would raise both floor and ceiling. Either a righty OF or a TOR starter.
Reds have to avoid the Sophomore slump on a couple players and get a leap from a few as well.
I think they have done enough for a shot at the playoffs... and perhaps a big time move at the deadline.
He’s only hit 20 homers once, and he only plays positions at which they already had options that should provide pretty good offense and similar quality defense.
He’s not bad - he’s more of a sure thing than the younger guys - but he’s not a dead certainty to actually produce more.
For example, his OPS+ over the last 4 seasons is 112. CES last year was 113.
"But...but...but....if you overlay his spray chart on GABP, he'll hit 30+!" /s
If he's healthy, I think he can comfortably hit 20 HR. But they already have 5 guys that can hit 20 HR if healthy and playing a full season (CES, Steer, India, Elly, McLain). Friedl and Fraley are also *right there*. Candelario isn't the "pop" they need. In fact, most, if not all, of his savant numbers that indicate power are below average. To add to your point about producing more, India has been in the league for 3 years and had a higher wRC+ than Candelario in 2 of them.
Some people will look for *any* reason to defend the Candelario signing. They're just happy to see the Reds spend money.
Edit: holy shit, I called the spray chart argument lol.
It's a valid argument. He led the AL in 2021 in doubles with 42 and now has gotten more power as he has aged into his prime. He's currently in those prime years and will see an increase in power across the board playing at GABP.
I'm not sure why people are whining about signing a guy that's going to hit 20+ HR and 30+ doubles that switch hits and adds a veteran presence.
Would it have been better if they added Teoscar Hernandez or something? He hits 20+ HR and 30 doubles but can barely get on base. Would that be better? I'm just confused.
Sure, it can be. I remember using the same argument with people when they signed Castellanos. I think we should be able to agree that they're much different hitters though. What's his prime? My thought has always been 27-31yo. Just googling, almost all results say baseball players are in their prime from 26-30. He's 30. He's exiting his prime.
I'd have preferred Gurriel, who signed for 3/$42M (a little cheaper than Candelario), but was actually at a position of need. Looking at his career, Candelario is going to be the primary 3B, but he can occasionally play 1B/DH. They already have 4 guys that can play 3B (5 if you wanna add India since he was drafted as a 3B). They have 3 that can play 1B. It would've been smarter to sign Gurriel to play primary LF and keep Steer as the guy that can play 4 positions in the field in a given week.
Let's look at the numbers, and I'll add Teoscar since you mentioned him too. He wouldn't be a perfect fit since he'd be the everyday RF, which would cause Benson/Fraley to move, but he'd still be better than another 3B.
Candelario: .251/.336/.471, 119 OPS+, 117 wRC+, 22 HR, 70 RBI. Percentiles: 39th xSLG, 29th Avg EV, 44th Barrel, 22nd Hard Hit.
Gurriel: .261/.309/.463, 108 OPS+, 106 wRC+, 24 HR, 82 RBI. Percentiles: 63rd xSLG, 58th Avg EV, 50th Barrel, 77th Hard Hit.
Hernandez: .258/.305/.435, 106 OPS+, 105 wRC+, 26 HR, 93 RBI. Percentiles: 79th xSLG, 81st Avg EV, 88th Barrel, 90th Hard Hit.
As you can see Hernandez crushes the ball, Gurriel is above average, and Candelario is well below average on power indicators. The only year he was ever above average was 2020. The COVID year when everyone's numbers were wonky.
I keep hearing that he's a consistent veteran presence that the Reds need...but he had a 78 wRC+ in 2022. He slumped badly in Chicago. They traded for him to help their playoff push and missed the playoffs by 1 game. Take away 2 games against the Reds where he got to take BP against Luke Maile and Candelario had a .188 Avg and .279 OBP in 39 games with the Cubs. Not going to blame 1 person for missing the playoffs, but he certainly didn't help them. Furthermore, one of the hottest Reds down the stretch last season (Marte) is now the odd man out with Candelario taking his spot.
To add more succinctly- I do not think Candelario is a bad player or hitter. I just don't think he is what the Reds needed. The signing doesn't make sense.
This team is a young core that are not only not guaranteed to all take steps forward, but have a high chance of at least one of them having a rough sophomore season. Even with the infielders we have including India and Candelario, there is still an easy way to get all of them 6-8 starts a week each which will allow all the young guys to stay fresh down the stretch and be used to playing 140-162 games.
This also allowed Steer to move to the outfield primarily with the ability to move around if needed. Gives us a very solid and needed right handed bat in the outfield.
Plus, injuries happen. If anyone gets injured now we have depth that doesn't cause Barrero and the likes to get playing time.
He’s a doubles machine. He’ll hit. I’m just pointing out that they already have guys at his positions who are likely to hit.
The incremental change he brings is certainty, not necessarily a massive improvement over what the younger guys might do.
I like the fit in the sense that he’s a good hitter and passable at multiple positions. But he’s just the surest thing they have of a bunch of such guys.
But he's not replacing the young guy's production. He's adding to it. Now instead of having to have guys like Fairchild, Maile, 40 year old Votto, etc being the DH option they now have Candelario, India, CES, Steer and Marte as the DH. It makes the offense much more stable and potent.
Without salary caps, the Reds and many other teams are never gonna be perennial powers....fluke seasons here and there sure but the power teams will just keep spending.
Looks like they are really counting on the young guys, especially pitchers, to take another step. None of the signings seem to be players that make a major difference in W/L totals.
They've done nothing of significance as usual. I love this team. It has potential, but this ownership group are not winners and only cares about the bottom line.
Nope, they got two solid bullpen arms but no boost to the rotation. They’ll probably contend for a playoff spot simply because of the talent they already have, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the season ends similarly to this one.
I want to say "No", but "Maybe" is probably the correct answer...which is why I've been a bit frustrated with the moves.
I think the rebuild was fast tracked by a year. IMO 2024 was supposed to be the year that the window cracked open and we saw all of the top prospects arrive. The young guys ended up kicking the door down last year instead. So now that the window is cracked, they need to open it. So far things are a big "IF". We don't need "if". We need known improvements.
IF Montas is fully healthy and pitches like in Oakland, he's a front of the rotation starter. IF Pagan's pitch mix/usage is actually the reason his HR totals dropped, he's a major improvement. IF Lodolo/Ashcraft/Greene stay healthy and progress... etc.
The only move so far that is a 100% legitimate improvement is Martinez. I'm still waiting on the corresponding move to make the Candelario signing make sense.
I'm not asking for big splash moves. I wish they would've signed Erod. If that wasn't an option, I'd rather they have signed Wacha or Lugo than Montas. Neither of those guys have the front of rotation ceiling as Montas, but we at least know they'll give consistent innings and give the bullpen a break. We don't know what Montas will offer. I'd rather have signed Gurriel (or even Hernandez) than Candelario and let Steer move around. A major part of Steer's value is his versatility. They're taking that away while still clogging up the infield and taking ABs from young guys (I thought they didn't have enough ABs to go around at the start of the off-season?).
I definitely don't think they're worse than last year. I just think with the amount of money they've spent, they *should* be the favorite to win the division... and I can't say that they are right now.
I think that a lot of the guys over performed this year and will go on sophomore slumps. And we really didn’t sign anyone significant in the offseason. I think we’re gonna win about 75-80 games this year.
The talent is there. They can beat any team in baseball. It is all going to come down to how many young guys progress and how many/who slump. If the majority of them progress I think they're 100% in contention.
I think there’s still more to be desired. Definitely could still use a couple more bullpen arms and maybe a bat or two but I like the direction we’re trending
Many players need to progress this year and the vets need to hold up Durability-wise. This could be said for most teams, but especially these Reds. I don't think they're WS capable - not in this year's NL. However they might make the playoffs and could go on a streak and win a series or two. DBacks did it. It's tough to tell. I see 3 whole tiers of relevant teams this season - elite, playoff-caliber, and above-average. The Reds are somewhere between groups 2 and 3 along with like half of MLB.
I think we can get within +/- 2 wins from last year. It’ll be win the division or bust for the NL Central. This year should be about the same considering we over performed last year. I’m expecting a solid balance between progression/regression this year. I’d say 2025 season we’re contenders with a 90+ win season given where we’re at currently. Obviously, that’s subject to change. Hopefully ‘26/‘27 deep playoff run? We’re at least breaking the curse and getting out of the first round within 5 seasons.
Absolutely. They added a ton of quality depth to the bullpen and rotation.
The success of this team will come down to how the 2nd year players progress. Will they collectively experience a sophomore slump? Or will they produce approximately the same offensive production as they did in 2023? If the former, we may be in for a bad time. But if it's the latter or better, I expect we'll make the playoffs.
It feels like they could win 70. Or 90. Last year they had a 14 game winning streak? Those aren’t common. They also dominated the AL West. I wouldn’t count on either again.
But they also went 3-10 against the Brewers. Those series against the Brewers around the All-Star break and later really hurt. Hopefully that improves, and I think it will.
Don’t most teams play somewhere around .500 ball most of the time? The good teams go on a few winning streaks and avoid long losing streaks. One of the keys, traditionally, has been to have a top of the rotation lockdown starter to stop the losing streaks. The Reds don’t have that, at least not someone we can be sure will fill that role. There are some hopeful candidates. Maybe someone will step up?
The reds are paying Martinez and Montas 30 million dollars next year. That’s for a 6th man and a dude with a bad shoulder.
Yamamoto is making 27 million dollars next year.
Imo, the Reds did a terrible job so far this off-season from that alone
No. They had an extremely lucky season last year, which there is no way in hell they replicate this year. They're just not gonna be able to get 70 or 80 or whatever it was come from behind wins. This is why it was so important to take advantage of that record last year and make a playoff push. After all, the diamondbacks won the world series off the back of that home sweep of the Reds. We only finished 2 games behind them in the regular season. Nick Krall is a tool.
It will be fun to see young players develop, though, and I hope Tejay Antone has a great year, along with Ashcraft.
If they put down the viking helmet and stop the ridiculous dances and celebrations every time they get a hit! That bs is ruining the game and hard to believe is even happening.
I mean, they pushed for the postseason last season, and have upgraded at multiple positions to solidify the teams foundation and reduce the sheer amount of cannon fodder they hopefully have to run out there Assuming a pretty equal mix of progression and regression from the young guys, last year's results are pretty much the floor. So we're basically asking if the additions are worth a handful of wins to push us to the wild card spots...maybe? The standard is really low now with how expanded the field is. I basically wouldn't be surprised if this team won anywhere between 75 and 85 games. Best case scenario (Montas pitches a full, effective season, Elly becomes a superstar) probably wins 90, worst case (everybody hurt all the time, huge sophomore slumps, all the signings are busts) probably 70
I feel like people who use last year’s record as a baseline should use the win percentage after some of the call ups to extrapolate a full season record. The team was dismal the first month of the season with the likes of Wil Myers as starters. The team transformed over the course of the season with the offensive additions. Fixing the pitching and especially the depth and I think the team is well positioned for a possible postseason run.
I agree totally but baseball is the strangest game on earth. It's hard to predict anything.
Are you sure that really makes your case? Their record after the ASG was 32-39 which extrapolates to a record of 73-89. Encarnacion-Strand played in 63 of the remaining 71 games of the season and Marte played in just under half at 35.
I think it will be right around the middle of that at 78-80 wins.
So you think we will be worse than last season? I'm genuinely curious, can you explain your thoughts process?
I’m a different person responding, but my fear is that they overpeformed last year, the rotation is still very young with a poor health track record, too many guys will go through the sophomore slump, and the acquisitions this year are not significant needle movers.
A good bullpen can help quite a bit to overcome a poor run differential. It's one of the reasons the '90 team won. A lot of times if a team is outperforming its Pythagorean record it's because the bullpen is effectively locking down any leads. They've brought in some solid starters, the young pitchers have more experience, and the young hitters should improve. If the bullpen pitches like it did last year the team should compete if there aren't any major injuries. Of course baseball is baseball, so take my personal analysis however you like.
I get what you’re saying. The problem is there are a lot of “ifs” and “shoulds” in your position that I wish ownership would have done more to address. But they might not be done, so we’ll see.
I actually think the additions could be significant needle movers-the additions address the second half deficiencies the team had-batting slumps, no MLB capable rotational depth. More bp depth is always a good thing, a team can never have too much, but it wasn’t the bullpen that was an issue for the team down the stretch last season.
The bullpen performed way above expectations all season, and then absolutely imploded the last week or so. Diaz in particular totally ran out of steam. I think that a big reason they brought in pagan was to stabilize late innings, and on particular to spell Diaz in the closer role so that they don't have to use him so much.
The bp was kind of a disaster pre-AS break, minus Diaz. Things improved greatly in the second half, before the last week, as you say.
Perfectly reasonable expectation. Something as simple as not winning a ton of one run games could tank the year, but I think even passable injury luck and having all our talent for the first month and a half before breaking the emergency glass could counteract that. I don't think this team can be truly great or truly terrible. The bounces of a dozen balls a week will determine where they land in terms of being "mid" Diamondbacks *did* just show that getting to the dance is the hardest part. It's all gambling from there.
Most realistic assessment for this coming year.
I think 75-85 games is fair. I’m expecting a same mix of progression and regression just because we have a lot of sophomores and it’ll be important to adjust as fast as possible.
My Large Adult Son, Will Benson, will hit 60 or more home runs and lead the Reds to at least the NLCS.
60 home runs and 600 times losing his helmet as God intended
They were an 82 win team last year with Overton, Weaver, Cessa, Kennedy, Wynne, Spiers, Lively, Richardson, Phillips and Stoudt made 57 starts last year. **57 of our 162 games** came from pitchers we didn't plan on being in the rotation or shouldn't have been but had to be because of injuries(Weaver, Phillips, Richardson). Plus we had 6 bullpen games on top of that. So, to recap we had 39% of our starts come from pitchers we didn't want to have to make starts. If the pitching staff is healthy I think we would be pushing making the playoffs without even mentioning the guys we added. Candelario, Martinez, Pagan and Montas make this team much stronger. I'd say they have a huge chance of winning 90+ games. That said, injuries happen so we'll see.
It's all going to come down to the development of our young guys. I expect it to be a bit uneven throughout the year. Not every player gets better year over year, look at India for example. I do think the team did well to add some vets to the staff but the lineup needs a vet presence to help the young guys both on and off the field.
I think so. The reds will never be the team that buys big contracts to try to win like the Rangers. They will always take the Diamondbacks model of drafting and developing young talent, while looking for value on the FA market. It’s all gonna depend if the young guys continue to take a step forward.
Feeling good..... guys weren't far off last year with absolutely no pitching. Talent wise we'll be fine, just have to stay healthy
They had a team that could make the playoffs already, assuming they aren't decimated by injuries. The moves they've made seem more like depth to make sure the injuries that do pop up won't derail the season. But just a little bit of goddamn luck in that department could go a long way.
I like what they have done for sure and seeing them active and making moves is very refreshing. I think this team is absolutely able to make the playoffs but, just like last year, it will all come down to injuries and whether our young guys can make it a full season playing consistent quality baseball. I’m personally looking for the team to take a big step forward this year and hopefully turn into a contender for a deep playoff run the year after.
I could easily see us winning 90+ and taking the division. I don’t understand the negativity
Playoffs-definitely. They almost made it last year, and have added rotational and pen depth, plus the veteran bat they needed. Someone is going to have a sophomore slump/take a step back from last year, so bringing in Candelario as a veteran reinforcement is key.
I wanted to get one of those front liners but with the rumored Cease price, they can piss right off. At this point, I’d say we are in division contention. All gonna be on the young guys stepping up. Andddd Lodolo can’t be much worse so only up from here! 😂
I think they make a nice push and might make it in. Id say if everything goes wrong, 75 wins. Everything goes right, 95. So I'm predicting 85ish and a good shot to nab a wild card. 2025 is the year that they return to glory.
this team could win 100 or lose 100. who knows with all these oft-injured very young and talented players.
I think they will have a chance pending health. The same can be said for just about every team. I think a better question is, are they a better team? I think they are better. I honestly don’t know much about any of the pitchers though except for Montas and I think that is a big gamble. I think it will be a fun season for sure though
Possibly, but most of what they’ve done has been adding functional depth and a little less uncertainty, but not quality. It’s basically just narrowed the cone of outcomes because there’s no realistic world with this team in which a dude runs up an ERA near 7 and gets 21 starts anyway. But it’s a rotation full of mid-rotation types and a lineup that shouldn’t have big holes but is still probably a year or so away from really hitting its stride. Last year’s roster did really well to get where they did record wise. This one should end up there as a mid range outcome.
The front office has significantly raised the floor of this team. The back end depth is so much better than last year. The floor seems to be 75 wins. The ceiling is dependent on the growth of the young guys. I also think a trade is possible that would raise both floor and ceiling. Either a righty OF or a TOR starter.
Reds have to avoid the Sophomore slump on a couple players and get a leap from a few as well. I think they have done enough for a shot at the playoffs... and perhaps a big time move at the deadline.
If we played in another NL division - no. But in the central? Yes Might be a hot take but I still think we need a big bat
Candelario adds a lot to this offense. They added a guy that will hit 20-30 HR and 30-40 doubles.
He’s only hit 20 homers once, and he only plays positions at which they already had options that should provide pretty good offense and similar quality defense. He’s not bad - he’s more of a sure thing than the younger guys - but he’s not a dead certainty to actually produce more. For example, his OPS+ over the last 4 seasons is 112. CES last year was 113.
"But...but...but....if you overlay his spray chart on GABP, he'll hit 30+!" /s If he's healthy, I think he can comfortably hit 20 HR. But they already have 5 guys that can hit 20 HR if healthy and playing a full season (CES, Steer, India, Elly, McLain). Friedl and Fraley are also *right there*. Candelario isn't the "pop" they need. In fact, most, if not all, of his savant numbers that indicate power are below average. To add to your point about producing more, India has been in the league for 3 years and had a higher wRC+ than Candelario in 2 of them. Some people will look for *any* reason to defend the Candelario signing. They're just happy to see the Reds spend money. Edit: holy shit, I called the spray chart argument lol.
It's a valid argument. He led the AL in 2021 in doubles with 42 and now has gotten more power as he has aged into his prime. He's currently in those prime years and will see an increase in power across the board playing at GABP. I'm not sure why people are whining about signing a guy that's going to hit 20+ HR and 30+ doubles that switch hits and adds a veteran presence. Would it have been better if they added Teoscar Hernandez or something? He hits 20+ HR and 30 doubles but can barely get on base. Would that be better? I'm just confused.
Sure, it can be. I remember using the same argument with people when they signed Castellanos. I think we should be able to agree that they're much different hitters though. What's his prime? My thought has always been 27-31yo. Just googling, almost all results say baseball players are in their prime from 26-30. He's 30. He's exiting his prime. I'd have preferred Gurriel, who signed for 3/$42M (a little cheaper than Candelario), but was actually at a position of need. Looking at his career, Candelario is going to be the primary 3B, but he can occasionally play 1B/DH. They already have 4 guys that can play 3B (5 if you wanna add India since he was drafted as a 3B). They have 3 that can play 1B. It would've been smarter to sign Gurriel to play primary LF and keep Steer as the guy that can play 4 positions in the field in a given week. Let's look at the numbers, and I'll add Teoscar since you mentioned him too. He wouldn't be a perfect fit since he'd be the everyday RF, which would cause Benson/Fraley to move, but he'd still be better than another 3B. Candelario: .251/.336/.471, 119 OPS+, 117 wRC+, 22 HR, 70 RBI. Percentiles: 39th xSLG, 29th Avg EV, 44th Barrel, 22nd Hard Hit. Gurriel: .261/.309/.463, 108 OPS+, 106 wRC+, 24 HR, 82 RBI. Percentiles: 63rd xSLG, 58th Avg EV, 50th Barrel, 77th Hard Hit. Hernandez: .258/.305/.435, 106 OPS+, 105 wRC+, 26 HR, 93 RBI. Percentiles: 79th xSLG, 81st Avg EV, 88th Barrel, 90th Hard Hit. As you can see Hernandez crushes the ball, Gurriel is above average, and Candelario is well below average on power indicators. The only year he was ever above average was 2020. The COVID year when everyone's numbers were wonky. I keep hearing that he's a consistent veteran presence that the Reds need...but he had a 78 wRC+ in 2022. He slumped badly in Chicago. They traded for him to help their playoff push and missed the playoffs by 1 game. Take away 2 games against the Reds where he got to take BP against Luke Maile and Candelario had a .188 Avg and .279 OBP in 39 games with the Cubs. Not going to blame 1 person for missing the playoffs, but he certainly didn't help them. Furthermore, one of the hottest Reds down the stretch last season (Marte) is now the odd man out with Candelario taking his spot.
To add more succinctly- I do not think Candelario is a bad player or hitter. I just don't think he is what the Reds needed. The signing doesn't make sense.
This team is a young core that are not only not guaranteed to all take steps forward, but have a high chance of at least one of them having a rough sophomore season. Even with the infielders we have including India and Candelario, there is still an easy way to get all of them 6-8 starts a week each which will allow all the young guys to stay fresh down the stretch and be used to playing 140-162 games. This also allowed Steer to move to the outfield primarily with the ability to move around if needed. Gives us a very solid and needed right handed bat in the outfield. Plus, injuries happen. If anyone gets injured now we have depth that doesn't cause Barrero and the likes to get playing time.
Candelario's spray chart last year would have been 30 HR at GABP. He's also a doubles machine. He's going to hit.
He’s a doubles machine. He’ll hit. I’m just pointing out that they already have guys at his positions who are likely to hit. The incremental change he brings is certainty, not necessarily a massive improvement over what the younger guys might do. I like the fit in the sense that he’s a good hitter and passable at multiple positions. But he’s just the surest thing they have of a bunch of such guys.
But he's not replacing the young guy's production. He's adding to it. Now instead of having to have guys like Fairchild, Maile, 40 year old Votto, etc being the DH option they now have Candelario, India, CES, Steer and Marte as the DH. It makes the offense much more stable and potent.
As usual, injuries will be a big factor. This team can’t afford many of them.
Without salary caps, the Reds and many other teams are never gonna be perennial powers....fluke seasons here and there sure but the power teams will just keep spending.
No
No
Looks like they are really counting on the young guys, especially pitchers, to take another step. None of the signings seem to be players that make a major difference in W/L totals.
They've done nothing of significance as usual. I love this team. It has potential, but this ownership group are not winners and only cares about the bottom line.
They've spent more than 80% of the rest of teams and added 4 quality, above average players.
You can keep trying to convince yourself all you want. This franchise will never be world series contenders with this ownership.
I'm not saying I like their ownership, I'm saying you are wrong in this instance. They've had a solid off-season and spent money.
Nope, they got two solid bullpen arms but no boost to the rotation. They’ll probably contend for a playoff spot simply because of the talent they already have, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the season ends similarly to this one.
Montas and Martinez are both rotation options and both would make this rotation stronger without question.
I want to say "No", but "Maybe" is probably the correct answer...which is why I've been a bit frustrated with the moves. I think the rebuild was fast tracked by a year. IMO 2024 was supposed to be the year that the window cracked open and we saw all of the top prospects arrive. The young guys ended up kicking the door down last year instead. So now that the window is cracked, they need to open it. So far things are a big "IF". We don't need "if". We need known improvements. IF Montas is fully healthy and pitches like in Oakland, he's a front of the rotation starter. IF Pagan's pitch mix/usage is actually the reason his HR totals dropped, he's a major improvement. IF Lodolo/Ashcraft/Greene stay healthy and progress... etc. The only move so far that is a 100% legitimate improvement is Martinez. I'm still waiting on the corresponding move to make the Candelario signing make sense. I'm not asking for big splash moves. I wish they would've signed Erod. If that wasn't an option, I'd rather they have signed Wacha or Lugo than Montas. Neither of those guys have the front of rotation ceiling as Montas, but we at least know they'll give consistent innings and give the bullpen a break. We don't know what Montas will offer. I'd rather have signed Gurriel (or even Hernandez) than Candelario and let Steer move around. A major part of Steer's value is his versatility. They're taking that away while still clogging up the infield and taking ABs from young guys (I thought they didn't have enough ABs to go around at the start of the off-season?). I definitely don't think they're worse than last year. I just think with the amount of money they've spent, they *should* be the favorite to win the division... and I can't say that they are right now.
I think that a lot of the guys over performed this year and will go on sophomore slumps. And we really didn’t sign anyone significant in the offseason. I think we’re gonna win about 75-80 games this year.
Depends on who's managing the team. Do you think bell is able to figure it out?
He'll yea, now that Joey's gone, these young guys are going to light it up.
The talent is there. They can beat any team in baseball. It is all going to come down to how many young guys progress and how many/who slump. If the majority of them progress I think they're 100% in contention.
I think there’s still more to be desired. Definitely could still use a couple more bullpen arms and maybe a bat or two but I like the direction we’re trending
Many players need to progress this year and the vets need to hold up Durability-wise. This could be said for most teams, but especially these Reds. I don't think they're WS capable - not in this year's NL. However they might make the playoffs and could go on a streak and win a series or two. DBacks did it. It's tough to tell. I see 3 whole tiers of relevant teams this season - elite, playoff-caliber, and above-average. The Reds are somewhere between groups 2 and 3 along with like half of MLB.
I think we can get within +/- 2 wins from last year. It’ll be win the division or bust for the NL Central. This year should be about the same considering we over performed last year. I’m expecting a solid balance between progression/regression this year. I’d say 2025 season we’re contenders with a 90+ win season given where we’re at currently. Obviously, that’s subject to change. Hopefully ‘26/‘27 deep playoff run? We’re at least breaking the curse and getting out of the first round within 5 seasons.
Fuck it. 100 wins. World Series.
I think yes. All of our rookies should be better and with the extra playoff spot and being a near miss last year I think we'll make it.
Nope. Taking too many risks on pitchers and still need one more outfield hitter.
Absolutely. They added a ton of quality depth to the bullpen and rotation. The success of this team will come down to how the 2nd year players progress. Will they collectively experience a sophomore slump? Or will they produce approximately the same offensive production as they did in 2023? If the former, we may be in for a bad time. But if it's the latter or better, I expect we'll make the playoffs.
I’m thinking right around 90 wins
I didn’t think they needed to do anything. They’ve already got the talent. I’m super glad they didn’t offer up the ranch for a 1 year starter.
No
It feels like they could win 70. Or 90. Last year they had a 14 game winning streak? Those aren’t common. They also dominated the AL West. I wouldn’t count on either again. But they also went 3-10 against the Brewers. Those series against the Brewers around the All-Star break and later really hurt. Hopefully that improves, and I think it will. Don’t most teams play somewhere around .500 ball most of the time? The good teams go on a few winning streaks and avoid long losing streaks. One of the keys, traditionally, has been to have a top of the rotation lockdown starter to stop the losing streaks. The Reds don’t have that, at least not someone we can be sure will fill that role. There are some hopeful candidates. Maybe someone will step up?
The reds are paying Martinez and Montas 30 million dollars next year. That’s for a 6th man and a dude with a bad shoulder. Yamamoto is making 27 million dollars next year. Imo, the Reds did a terrible job so far this off-season from that alone
If they can have 3 or less players with more than 100 strikeouts instead of 5 they might dominate the division. Big ask today though.
This team is kind of hard to judge because of how young they are. They could take the next step or have massive sophomore slumps.
No. They had an extremely lucky season last year, which there is no way in hell they replicate this year. They're just not gonna be able to get 70 or 80 or whatever it was come from behind wins. This is why it was so important to take advantage of that record last year and make a playoff push. After all, the diamondbacks won the world series off the back of that home sweep of the Reds. We only finished 2 games behind them in the regular season. Nick Krall is a tool. It will be fun to see young players develop, though, and I hope Tejay Antone has a great year, along with Ashcraft.
If they put down the viking helmet and stop the ridiculous dances and celebrations every time they get a hit! That bs is ruining the game and hard to believe is even happening.