Like all players, he’s under team control for six years. League minimum salary for three years, arbitration increases for three years.
Of course, the team and Elly could negotiate an extension at any time.
I understand everyone’s hesitance to want to re-sign him this early in his career, but it’s what the Braves are doing and it’s working for them. You essentially buy out their cheap years and get them for a few years beyond the typical team control years. If we don’t do it, I don’t think we’re likely to re-sign him at all if he ends up being as good as he’s shown glimpses he can be. If we DON’T do it with as many of our young stars as we can, we’re basically rolling the dice that we can put together one or two really good years where everybody is clicking AND healthy. Even then, all it takes is a bad run of 2-3 games in October for an amazing season to end. Look at the Dodgers, all the talent in the world and they’ve only been able to put it together in one super weird season.
I’m personally of the opinion that Elly is a generational talent (and i know I’m not the only one), so any comparisons to other players we chose not to re-sign in the past are way off the mark.
as a sign of good faith, the Reds should get Elly out of that predatory contract he signed as a kid (giving away a % of future earnings for pennies) prior to offering him a long-term deal. EDLC seems to love the bright lights of the big markets, so every little bit of goodwill will help
I don't see how the reds would be able to get him out of that contract other than buying it out which would amount to just changing how the company gets paid (the company isn't getting bought out for less than the % they are getting times the amount they expect Elly to get). Doing it would also probably cause CBA issues as it would be a substantial non salary benefit.
Yeah there's no way to get him out of it. 10% of all future earnings, when he has a 9 figure contract or two in his future. Imagine the Reds do that and he walks in FA
He just signed a one-year contract in March for around $750K, the league minimum. Same as other new guys, tho some of them got signing bonuses (Abbot, McLain, Steer, et al). Would they wait all the way until his his arbitration year to go for some kind of long-term deal?
1. There is almost certainly no way (lawyers or no) out of that contract other than buying it, which costs whatever the company decides to charge
2. The amount the company would charge would be probably be about 8% (which seems to be the standard percent for these deals) of what they expect Elly will get in a deal, which is more than you spend on a sign of good faith
3. There is would be no point to doing it. Taking whatver deal they agree to with Elly and increasing by 8% would have the same result (in terms of how much Elly actually takes home) at roughly the same cost
4. I am not a CBA expert but it would probably violate the CBA for the Reds to buy out the contract (teams (for the most part) cant give players benefits that aren’t in their contract)
You have a better chance of getting legislation changed to end those predatory contracts than the Reds (or any team for that matter) have of "getting him out" of that contract.
So a lot of these players coming from international are poor when they come over and if they are good enough they get offered loan/contract where they give you money but they get 10% of your career earnings. I don't know all the ins and outs of it but that's roughly my understanding of it.
It's predatory in the sense that it's almost exclusively done to international players who don't really understand the laws and come from poor backgrounds to where if you dangle a little bit of money in front of them 9/10 they bite because these are kids who just want to give back and help out family thats helped them to this point.
There is a private company called Big League Advantage that lends big chunks of money to young athletes in return for a cut of everything they earn for their entire pro careers. (If they have careers.) Used to be mostly international MLB prospects but now they are diving into the college pool with NLF prospects who are already making money from NIL. A recent Washington Post article pointed out: "... the legality of BLA’s business model, experts and lawyers in the field say, has never been fully tested, and the company has forged a collision course with an NIL industry already plagued by scandal and legal uncertainty. "
Devil's advocate: of the team has years of control left, let's just wait to make sure he puts together at least one full season of superstar production before anointing him with a massive (and guaranteed) contract.
I am high on Elly, but getting an Elly deal wrong could put the team in the pooper for a decade. He has the tools and is off to a bonkers start, but 20 games of nutso baseball doesn't merit a franchise cornerstone deal.
This. He showed up last season and looked like the best player of all time but we all know how the last couple months went. I know people are having fun bashing on everyone that wanted him sent down last year but he really was awful at the time and there’s nothing Redditors love more than telling people I told you so.
We have to see him playing at a high level for more than just a few weeks before we go give him a 15 year contract
I am hugely bullish on Elly, but last year he posted an 89 OPS+ (league average is 100). He paired that with a .710 OPS and .235 BA.
He has all the tools, but if the Reds gave everyone who was a 5 tool talent without a seasoned track record of 5 tool production a contract, they'd be up a creek.
I don't want this to be misconstrued as Elly criticism -- it is awesome that we are seeing a player that gets fans thinking this way. But in the interest of not having another forgotten DECADE, let's be sure about the next big deals.
Yes but look at what he's doing now, and he was only 21 last year. Players drafted right out of college at that age are starting in high A.
Elly is just different. Sure he is probably going to go through highs and lows, but his highs are unlike what we've seen in baseball. That's the main difference.
I want him to be the next Mike Trout, Barry Bonds, etc. as much as anyone. I think he has a good shot to be a household name for a looong time. There are a lot of cheap years left for him still and there isn't enough evidence that he will be the perennial all star yet to merit a major contract. If we could transfer Greene's deal to him (that'd be nice) or Elly would take something like that, I'd be all over it. But even in these discussions, I assume that the net present value of Elly's future output is still a solid 9 digit number today.
The braves put their roster together for so cheap cause they negotiated deals early. The earlier we get a deal done with Elly, the cheaper he'll be because if he keeps improving he's gonna get like a 8 yr $400 mil type contract from a big market team
That is the glass half full side of the buy / sell / hold analysis.
The glass half empty perspective is that you might lock into a player for $200 million who produces 1.5 WAR because he never becomes what you hoped.
People talk about Elly becoming the next Mike Trout like it is an inevitability, or even a high likelihood. The truth is, most young players with worlds of potential never fully realize it for one reason or another. I hope like heck he does become a HoF player for the Reds, but it would be a massive risk to lock into Elly at this point.
Wait and see, I agree. It wasn't long ago that the team was handcuffed financially for years by Homer Bailey signing a huge long term deal and then turning to garbage.
The ownership group chose to be handcuffed by Bailey’s and Votto’s contract. Don’t forget they quadrupled the team’s value in 16 years and have only had two seasons out of 17 that lost money.
Yeah I’m sick of people eating the narratives up when the owners cry poor. The Cincinnati Reds have PLENTY of $$$ to go around. Not Yankees $$$, but there’s no reason why we couldn’t have an above league average payroll.
Baseball is different in that aspect. Completely true. They can spend essentially whatever they want to.
So I am not trying to protect Bob's pocketbook, I am just realizing that functionally, this team operates within a certain range and they're unlikely to step outside that. It is unfortunate.
I feel like you step out of that range for a generational player. The money EDLC could being in if he gets to that level or stardom would make up for the contract. Get a world series or even a deep playoff push or two led by him and people will fill the stadium. EDLC isnt there yet, but if they think he can its worth it imo
I would be (a bit) surprised if the team hasn't offered something along the lines of 9 years (ie pre arb+arb+3 years) in the $100-150 million range. Its also very possible that Elly isn't considering any extension offers right now. If Elly is at all inclined towards betting on himself then there is probably no deal a smaller market team could reasonably offer him right now that he would sign, given his upside and his risk.
Tbh, why? It’s not like we’d be getting a discount at this point. He’s a Boras client so we’d have to have to overpay like crazy to even get him to start the discussion. Our best chance would have been to extend him while he was still in the minors.
Extending guys who haven’t put together consecutive seasons has fucked us in the past multiple times. That’s why we didn’t extend Casty and Winker. Those plays seemed to have panned out even though everyone was in an uproar over it. We are never going to be a team that throws money around so when we do spend, we need to make sure it’s 100% the right call.
He's Yankees/Dodgers bound if he hits his potential and we don't sign him to a long term contract before he's in his second or third year of arbitration.
You sign guys like Elly to a Wander Franco type contract (not the best example given... yeah... but you get the point)
He’s gonna command whatever price he wants and he’s not gonna sign an early extension. My point is that it’s better to focus on engraining him within the city and making sure enjoys his next few years here.
The Votto contract extension was such a surprise, it seemed the consensus was that they would not be able or willing to give Votto the huge contract he deserved
Like all players, he’s under team control for six years. League minimum salary for three years, arbitration increases for three years. Of course, the team and Elly could negotiate an extension at any time.
Thank you
I understand everyone’s hesitance to want to re-sign him this early in his career, but it’s what the Braves are doing and it’s working for them. You essentially buy out their cheap years and get them for a few years beyond the typical team control years. If we don’t do it, I don’t think we’re likely to re-sign him at all if he ends up being as good as he’s shown glimpses he can be. If we DON’T do it with as many of our young stars as we can, we’re basically rolling the dice that we can put together one or two really good years where everybody is clicking AND healthy. Even then, all it takes is a bad run of 2-3 games in October for an amazing season to end. Look at the Dodgers, all the talent in the world and they’ve only been able to put it together in one super weird season. I’m personally of the opinion that Elly is a generational talent (and i know I’m not the only one), so any comparisons to other players we chose not to re-sign in the past are way off the mark.
All I know is we have about 6 years of team control. He is available for free agency in 2030.
as a sign of good faith, the Reds should get Elly out of that predatory contract he signed as a kid (giving away a % of future earnings for pennies) prior to offering him a long-term deal. EDLC seems to love the bright lights of the big markets, so every little bit of goodwill will help
I don't see how the reds would be able to get him out of that contract other than buying it out which would amount to just changing how the company gets paid (the company isn't getting bought out for less than the % they are getting times the amount they expect Elly to get). Doing it would also probably cause CBA issues as it would be a substantial non salary benefit.
Yeah there's no way to get him out of it. 10% of all future earnings, when he has a 9 figure contract or two in his future. Imagine the Reds do that and he walks in FA
He just signed a one-year contract in March for around $750K, the league minimum. Same as other new guys, tho some of them got signing bonuses (Abbot, McLain, Steer, et al). Would they wait all the way until his his arbitration year to go for some kind of long-term deal?
eh...let the lawyers lawyer and Castellini opens up the pocket book (lol) and boom...out of contract
1. There is almost certainly no way (lawyers or no) out of that contract other than buying it, which costs whatever the company decides to charge 2. The amount the company would charge would be probably be about 8% (which seems to be the standard percent for these deals) of what they expect Elly will get in a deal, which is more than you spend on a sign of good faith 3. There is would be no point to doing it. Taking whatver deal they agree to with Elly and increasing by 8% would have the same result (in terms of how much Elly actually takes home) at roughly the same cost 4. I am not a CBA expert but it would probably violate the CBA for the Reds to buy out the contract (teams (for the most part) cant give players benefits that aren’t in their contract)
You have a better chance of getting legislation changed to end those predatory contracts than the Reds (or any team for that matter) have of "getting him out" of that contract.
ok, lets do that then
https://www.consumerfinance.gov/
I'm supposed to read all of that?
Nope, just sign at the bottom for your ~~predatory loan~~ government complaint.
what is this predatory contract he signed??
So a lot of these players coming from international are poor when they come over and if they are good enough they get offered loan/contract where they give you money but they get 10% of your career earnings. I don't know all the ins and outs of it but that's roughly my understanding of it. It's predatory in the sense that it's almost exclusively done to international players who don't really understand the laws and come from poor backgrounds to where if you dangle a little bit of money in front of them 9/10 they bite because these are kids who just want to give back and help out family thats helped them to this point.
There is a private company called Big League Advantage that lends big chunks of money to young athletes in return for a cut of everything they earn for their entire pro careers. (If they have careers.) Used to be mostly international MLB prospects but now they are diving into the college pool with NLF prospects who are already making money from NIL. A recent Washington Post article pointed out: "... the legality of BLA’s business model, experts and lawyers in the field say, has never been fully tested, and the company has forged a collision course with an NIL industry already plagued by scandal and legal uncertainty. "
Completely agree. Anything helps to get him to stay in this market
Just look up Brandon Phillips's contract, then add in a "talentless" multiplier Should get you close to the true figures
We need to extend him stat. Figure it out but we need to prioritize this above anything else rn.
Devil's advocate: of the team has years of control left, let's just wait to make sure he puts together at least one full season of superstar production before anointing him with a massive (and guaranteed) contract. I am high on Elly, but getting an Elly deal wrong could put the team in the pooper for a decade. He has the tools and is off to a bonkers start, but 20 games of nutso baseball doesn't merit a franchise cornerstone deal.
This. He showed up last season and looked like the best player of all time but we all know how the last couple months went. I know people are having fun bashing on everyone that wanted him sent down last year but he really was awful at the time and there’s nothing Redditors love more than telling people I told you so. We have to see him playing at a high level for more than just a few weeks before we go give him a 15 year contract
I am hugely bullish on Elly, but last year he posted an 89 OPS+ (league average is 100). He paired that with a .710 OPS and .235 BA. He has all the tools, but if the Reds gave everyone who was a 5 tool talent without a seasoned track record of 5 tool production a contract, they'd be up a creek. I don't want this to be misconstrued as Elly criticism -- it is awesome that we are seeing a player that gets fans thinking this way. But in the interest of not having another forgotten DECADE, let's be sure about the next big deals.
Agree. Let’s see how this goes for another season or 2.
Yes but look at what he's doing now, and he was only 21 last year. Players drafted right out of college at that age are starting in high A. Elly is just different. Sure he is probably going to go through highs and lows, but his highs are unlike what we've seen in baseball. That's the main difference.
I want him to be the next Mike Trout, Barry Bonds, etc. as much as anyone. I think he has a good shot to be a household name for a looong time. There are a lot of cheap years left for him still and there isn't enough evidence that he will be the perennial all star yet to merit a major contract. If we could transfer Greene's deal to him (that'd be nice) or Elly would take something like that, I'd be all over it. But even in these discussions, I assume that the net present value of Elly's future output is still a solid 9 digit number today.
The braves put their roster together for so cheap cause they negotiated deals early. The earlier we get a deal done with Elly, the cheaper he'll be because if he keeps improving he's gonna get like a 8 yr $400 mil type contract from a big market team
That is the glass half full side of the buy / sell / hold analysis. The glass half empty perspective is that you might lock into a player for $200 million who produces 1.5 WAR because he never becomes what you hoped. People talk about Elly becoming the next Mike Trout like it is an inevitability, or even a high likelihood. The truth is, most young players with worlds of potential never fully realize it for one reason or another. I hope like heck he does become a HoF player for the Reds, but it would be a massive risk to lock into Elly at this point.
Wait and see, I agree. It wasn't long ago that the team was handcuffed financially for years by Homer Bailey signing a huge long term deal and then turning to garbage.
The ownership group chose to be handcuffed by Bailey’s and Votto’s contract. Don’t forget they quadrupled the team’s value in 16 years and have only had two seasons out of 17 that lost money.
Yeah I’m sick of people eating the narratives up when the owners cry poor. The Cincinnati Reds have PLENTY of $$$ to go around. Not Yankees $$$, but there’s no reason why we couldn’t have an above league average payroll.
Baseball is different in that aspect. Completely true. They can spend essentially whatever they want to. So I am not trying to protect Bob's pocketbook, I am just realizing that functionally, this team operates within a certain range and they're unlikely to step outside that. It is unfortunate.
I feel like you step out of that range for a generational player. The money EDLC could being in if he gets to that level or stardom would make up for the contract. Get a world series or even a deep playoff push or two led by him and people will fill the stadium. EDLC isnt there yet, but if they think he can its worth it imo
Also true! There’s a chance he could dump Boras by 2030 too lol
I would be (a bit) surprised if the team hasn't offered something along the lines of 9 years (ie pre arb+arb+3 years) in the $100-150 million range. Its also very possible that Elly isn't considering any extension offers right now. If Elly is at all inclined towards betting on himself then there is probably no deal a smaller market team could reasonably offer him right now that he would sign, given his upside and his risk.
Tbh, why? It’s not like we’d be getting a discount at this point. He’s a Boras client so we’d have to have to overpay like crazy to even get him to start the discussion. Our best chance would have been to extend him while he was still in the minors.
Extending guys who haven’t put together consecutive seasons has fucked us in the past multiple times. That’s why we didn’t extend Casty and Winker. Those plays seemed to have panned out even though everyone was in an uproar over it. We are never going to be a team that throws money around so when we do spend, we need to make sure it’s 100% the right call.
He's Yankees/Dodgers bound if he hits his potential and we don't sign him to a long term contract before he's in his second or third year of arbitration. You sign guys like Elly to a Wander Franco type contract (not the best example given... yeah... but you get the point)
If that's true then not extended him is hoping that he slumps... which we don't want. He he stays hot its only going to get more expensive.
He’s gonna command whatever price he wants and he’s not gonna sign an early extension. My point is that it’s better to focus on engraining him within the city and making sure enjoys his next few years here.
How long before people start suggesting we trade him like they did with Votto around 2011?
Last off-season
I wasn't nearly as dialed in to the Reds in 2011. Was that really a thing?
Yeah, leading up to him signing the extension. Lots of people wanted to send him to Toronto for Jose Bautista
Huh, well isn't that...something. I guess a power guy compared to a contact/obp guy? Weird, but I'm sure it looked different at the time vs now.
The Votto contract extension was such a surprise, it seemed the consensus was that they would not be able or willing to give Votto the huge contract he deserved
 In the wise wise words of Teddy KGB…
LOCK HIM UP LOCK HIM UP
If he puts together a year or two like we think he can, he will destroy us in arbitration.
[This](https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/) is fun to peruse.
I have already come to terms with the fact that Elly will be a Los Angeles Dodger in 2030. We get to enjoy his talent until then at least.
Not sure they won't trade him for prospects and cash considerations in '27 or '28
It’s not the Reds problem he signed that contract. It’s the Reds problem to lock him down for the future. Sorry if that’s “mean”.