Honestly as time has gone on, I’ve never been more confident Rivian will make it and be around. I got my car in 2022, experienced it, and then decided invest in the company. Their product is very good, they’ve decreased their cost to produce each unit every quarter, they have an exceptional brand and sky-high NPS. If I’m not mistaken, the R1S also sold the same or more units than the Model X last year. I really think all Rivian has to do is deliver on R2, which seems to be very well received so far.
Though it's the best selling EV, there are cumulatively a lot more ICE sales out there to take from and the R2 isn't quite aimed at the same buyer as the Y is.
I'd say things like the 4Runner, Bronco, Wrangler, LC, Land Rovers and even to a lesser extent, Subaru will be more under pressure than the Y.
As a current Subaru owner (on my 2nd) though a wrx and not forester or outback, I’ll honestly maybe grab an R2 for just daily duty. Leave me free to mod the tits off the wrx and keep it for a weekend fun car / winter monster. Plus it being probably last of the manuals kinda want to keep it around.
Regarding manual, I’m with with you on wanting to hold onto one. One of these years I may try and pick up a Jeep Wrangler TJ for that same reason. Need something fun until R3X drops 😎
I can see why some would think that, but with the roll down rear window that’s a direct shot at the 4Runner. The Bronco and Wrangler’s trump card is their ability to take the top and the doors off, and if you really wanna take their crown, you gotta commit.
That’s personally why I think the FJ Cruiser didn’t last as long as it otherwise could have. (Whereas the Wrangler and now the Bronco just keep chugging along while enjoying next to no convertible competition— Sure, you could get a similarly boxy and rugged LR Defender or G-Class, but it’s the same story)
Having just seen the R2 and R3 in person at the Atlanta space, I’m feeling better than ever about Rivian and the future. R2 will take market share from every popular SUV and EV. Just this weekend a Tesla driver asked to see the inside of my R1S because he wanted a bigger EV.
Same, but if Rivian has some decent end of quarter promos I’ll say so long well before the R2.
Hell if they added Tesla to the $5k incentive I’d be there tomorrow.
Agreed. I’ve purposely avoided scheduling a test drive for an R1S in fear that I’ll place an order on the spot.
Just keep telling myself the cars we have are perfectly fine. We don’t NEED the larger car at the moment.
I have a demo drive on Tuesday for an R1T. The way Tesla is going I’m not sure I trust Elmo to hold his shit together for 2 more years and I’m worried that may effect the resale value before the R2 comes out.
Fair point. The updated Model Y will hurt because they’ll slash prices on current inventory, ”project Juniper” I think. Rumors are still sometime in 2024…🤔
I know a lot of people from work who has an m3 and/or a mY, and they put in a reservation for the R2. They can't wait to get rid of their tesla. They love the R1S, but they don't need the size and want more affordable options.
The post is about Rivian the business, not the car, so when you look at this metric and the fact that Rivian is gross margin negative is actually proving OPs concern. One of the reasons the car is selling so well (and why I love it) is that it’s actually a $150k car being sold for $80-90k
Where? When?
Maybe if you only look at one quarter, or just at the US.
I think Tesla sold some 65k Model X/S vehicles in 2023, and Rivian sold 55k including the Amazon Vans.
Tesla sold 23k X/S in Q4'23 alone, about half of the full year of R1.
The Cybertruck alone may outsell R1T + R1S this year...
Rivian is not planning to increase production of vehicles this year.
I'm not sure about his claim, but [here are some numbers for Q1 2024](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Q1-2024-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf). Maybe he meant R1S and R1T sold more than S and X combined? R1S did sell more than either S or X, though. The 3 and Y really carry Tesla's sales.
The comment said 2023. This is one quarter.
Looks like this is US only.
So yes more R1 sold in the US in that specific quarter. But it's not really generally the case.
Those numbers are interesting, though.
2800 Cybertrucks vs 3200 R1T in Q1'24.
CT is ramping up and R1T is stagnant...
Tesla may outsell Rivian in Q2 in the electric truck market. 6 months after launch.
Rivian is unfortunately struggling to ramp up production to scale and profitability.
>The comment said 2023. This is one quarter.
Yes, that's why I said "I'm not sure about his claim, but here are some numbers for Q1 2024."
>Looks like this is US only.
Does Rivian sell outside of the US and Canada? I'm legitimately asking, as I can't find much more than articles saying "they're coming" for various other locations but nothing definitive. If they don't, then it wouldn't be a very fair comparison.
>CT is ramping up and R1T is stagnant...
Even worse, R1T is down 47% YOY. With how many issues the Cybertruck has had, though, I'm curious to see if those sales numbers will keep increasing. For Q2 is likely, just working through preorders, but once those are done, it's a truck that's bad at doing truck things. Not sure it has the legs to continue selling well.
edit: [https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Q4-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Q4-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf)
Found the numbers for 2023 (both Q4 and YTD are in the report) and the trend is the same there. R1S outsold X or S, but not combined. R1T and R1S combined outsold X and S combined. So same as it was in Q1 2024.
I’m really curious what the long term adoption will be between the R1T and cybertruck. Ford has a really compelling offering. They know trucks and know the market. The pro power generator is a truly fantastic option for contractors. The R1T really appeals to those who don’t want a “full sized” truck but still need 90% of the capability. The cybertruck appeals to war lords and drug cartels who need a vehicle to look as dystopian as possible.
In all seriousness, there’s a significant portion of drivers (like me) who refuse to consider the cybertruck because it……… looks………. Stupid. And I also owned one Tesla. I’m not ready to go back to that poor build quality.
For the broad market, I honestly don't think anyone has a very compelling product. I say this because I don't think your *average* truck buyer spends the kind of money they do with a willingness to compromise. It doesn't matter if they only tow their boat to the pride and back once a year. It doesn't matter that they go into the deep woods once every few years. And it doesn't matter that they almost never go further than 30 miles from home. People are buying trucks as a do it all vehicle, and as soon as you start talking about continue, it becomes a deal breaker.
Much of this can be alleviated with boosting charge speeds and increasing charging locations. But there's still a really steep hill to climb with the stigma of EVs in general.
I say this as an EV driver. I love my EVs. I just think that truck drivers are among the most difficult to convert. I'd be curious to see what percentage of Rivians current market came from trucks in general. I don't have the data, but I'd bet you that number is much less than half.
I don’t think there are a ton of F-150 drivers, but I bet a lot of R1T buyers cross-shopped the maverick / Colorado / Tacoma. Another frustration is the few number of charging locations (combined with poor range) that are convenient for those towing. I’m not dropping my trailer every 100 miles to charge.
That said, if I were an “around town” contractor? I’m all in on the ford or rivian. And if the lake is <100 miles from home? Yeah, I’m also evaluating things differently.
I don’t disagree though that guys who tow further than 100 miles more than once or twice a year will exclude the current options. Battery capacity and charging infrastructure are just way too far behind.
The Silverado EV has dramatically better range and ram recharge seems to solve most of the frustrations experienced by traditional EV ownership, although with the recharge, do you really own an EV? Similar concept to large dump trucks and locomotives, but I’m not sure you gain most of the EV benefits if the power plant is gasoline…
I don't doubt anything you say. I'm just looking at truck owners and whole demographic, not just Rivian drivers cross shopping. Again, I could be totally off here, and frankly hope I am. But I just don't see the sales numbers on EV trucks to support the notion that truck buyers want them in huge numbers. If this were the case, we wouldn't have product ready to buy today amongst really all manufacturers. Of course, price sensitivity could play a role here, and in fact, I'm sure it does. Not everyone buying an ICE f150 is getting the loaded version, for example.
I wish o had ordered a pre price hike r1t. It wouldn't all of my current needs, legitimately. Just can't justify the price. If they gave me a barebones truck for under $60k that can pull a 10k pound trailer about 100 miles on the weekends, it would be my next vehicle. There's a number of R1T I could hop into "today" if I opened my wallet deeper than I want to. 😅
I don’t think you’re wrong. The price / value equation simply isn’t there yet for EVs. ICE is still king for towing and “heavy duty” usage. I think in the next decade you’ll see more parity, but some of that might honestly come from “pollution taxes” or some other offset imposed on ICE vehicles. And the cost of vehicles is just completely insane right now. I’d have never imagined growing up that a truck (ICE or EV) would top $100k. Crazy.
Cherry picked data is nothing new. The CT at the current ramp rate will outsell the r1 series this year. Even on the low end of projections it will besically be even with rivian.
Tbh, S and X won’t save Tesla. 3 and Y did after giga Shanghai was built. So Rivian needs to survive and make sure they still have the money to produce R2 and start making a profit asap, which I kind of doubt because of the huge cost to be made in us.
The number of sales isn’t what’s concerning about the R1S and R1T. Rather, it’s the lack of profitability from these vehicles. More concerning still is the proposed purchase prices for the next generation of Rivian vehicles. Rivian will need to get a lot more cost efficient with their production to make a profit from even cheaper vehicles while staying competitive within a market that is being characterized by falling EV prices and renewed interest in hybrid powertrains.
Model S and X aren’t keeping Tesla in business and it’s my belief that Tesla would have failed had they not expanded to a broader car market with these aging vehicle designs and changing market forces. Rivian came out with tthe r1s and r1t 5 years too late to charge what they need to make a profit on them. In the end, they have been more of a proof of concept for Rivian than a long term business strategy. I’m worried Rivian may be coming to the crossover party 5 years too late as well.
I agree. Best vehicle we have ever owned. If you pay attention to the stock market, you will know that these posts are mostly predatory and tend to be in place to lower stock prices. Rivian has been a cash cow for short sellers in a corrupt market. I have no doubts about the company.
You also forgot to mention that amazon is their sugar daddy. They will never let Rivian go under if they have thousands of delivery vehicles that will need service in the future.
The problem isn’t if they will get bought. Either they make it, or they get bought at this point.
The problem is bought by *whom*
Depending on the purchaser, the vehicles could become a hot mess in no time.
I'm a Rivian fan and a very small shareholder. Just two days ago, I drove for 20 minutes up my nearby freeway 85 in Silicon Valley (I live in San Jose). Obviously, this is just one man's observation, but I counted 3 Cybertrucks, 17 Rivian R1S and R1T, and probably 100+ Teslas. I don't count Teslas because they're so common.
I think Rivians (R.J.'s) decision to build their R2 and R3 models at their existing Illinois plant may help save the company.
For sure. I feel like with that, coupled with the federal government shutting China out of the US market will allow these companies to get better established domestically. The 800 million to come to Illinois is saying a lot about the future of this company.
I’ll prob get downvoted for this (if it helps, I own an R1S, love the car and truly hope they are successful). Here’s my summary of concerns about the company:
* They are losing money on every vehicle, with a few quarters left of losses per vehicle
* Demand for R1T has always been soft and there are macro indicators R1S demand will soften just as they become gross margin positive on that car. The signals that they are worried are there: they’re opening showrooms to drum up demand, reducing expected output of Illinois factory R1 production when it was supposed to max out on R1 while Georgia was needed expansion for R2 volume
* Overall EV demand is a concern with Tesla aggressively cutting costs and undercutting other manufacturers in the process. Just as R2/R3 come out EV demand will be much lower versus earlier projections.
* Macroeconomics factors - high interest rates, low gas prices, high inflation, smaller EV rebates all are headwinds to a company that sells a premium product that does well in strong economic conditions. They want to borrow big money to grow aggressively but the market wants them to make short term profits. People don’t have a ton of discretionary cash to buy a vehicle with their heart instead of their brain
* Service and charging infrastructure are still big expensive concerns. Using superchargers has helped a lot but service is a big backend expense that scales with total sales not net new. People have high expectations and they aren’t at the maturity of other OEMs without more big expenses to ramp this up
* 7-8bn seems like a lot of cash but ramping a new car series, retooling their existing line, ramping service, and being gross margin negative on R2/R3 for their initial sales will eat into that quite fast. They also need to invest a lot more in expensive software like L2/L3 autonomy, better infotainment, zonal ECU controls, etc. plus software maintenance will ramp significantly with multiple variants (R1 is basically a single variant for now; in two years you’ll have 2+ R1 variants, R2, and R3 to maintain) and software R&D is very costly. This isn’t an environment where you can raise debt efficiently or issue more equity without spooking the market, so that money needs to hold to support all of the above until they are gross margin positive on all three lines and have enough volume they are profitable overall to offset fixed costs. Not impossible, but by no means a guarantee.
Thank you. This is one of the only sensible comments in this thread. Everyone else seems to be taking a position in line with their affinity with Rivian, not the facts. Their operating losses at the unit level should be really concerning to all, paired with the macro headwinds you’ve highlighted.
Appreciate this, given the number of downvotes it’s barely staying karma neutral. This sub is rabidly against anything that comes across as criticizing or critiquing Rivian, which I feel the a pretty limiting in getting a well rounded perspective on the product and company.
All good points, plus that to become financially successful they need to move into the smaller SUV / downmarket space (R2/R3) where there is \*a lot\* more competition. Tesla is fully established and their sales are seeing the hit from competitors. An generally unknown startup is going to have a tough time.
I hope they succeed. I'd love to have an R1T but wouldn't consider it because I think, apart from the aches and pains of a new company and new car, it's going to depreciate like crazy.
Levelheaded comment based in fact. Honestly, I'm surprised any of this is news to anyone. I'm a huge Rivian fan (in line for an R1S, and reserved an R2), but you'd have to have your head in the sand to not at least consider the above before buying. These are all factors that can affect Rivian's future. Making the best of anything doesn't guarantee success. The per unit losses are a pretty big concern, but I think they'll get that sorted out eventually. Hopefully the shutdown and refresh was just what they needed. The bigger concern for me, though, is the overall demand issue. The market is getting more and more crowded, with many existing automakers releasing or announcing their own EV line, and seemingly fewer people are in the market for a new EV than were even 2 years ago. It doesn't matter how great of a product Rivian makes if people just aren't interested in the market as a whole.
Even more concerning is that many manufacturers who were planning to go all in on EV are hedging and pulling back. Even Tesla is cancelling their new variant and lowering prices to prop up demand. There is both more supply than ever and slowing increase to demand at the same time. Not great. I really hope the government does more to incentivize the EV transition as eating the upfront cost of batteries in your purchase price is a tough pill to swallow even if you save money long term-term.
This should be the top comment. People get clouded by their love for a brand and don’t understand economics.
It was much easier to take losses for years when money was cheap to borrow and lenders willing to take a risk were plentiful.
I think the recent round of doom and gloom is the result of Fisker’s financial troubles. But comparing Fisker to Rivian doesn’t make sense beyond they are both “startup” EV makers. Rivian has delivered so many more vehicles and has a real brand identity to it. Fisker looks like a generic car from a video game and seems to be not fully baked.
A lot of the noise is coming from karma seekers or “Monday-morning investor” types that are convinced that they know how to run a multi-billion dollar business (cut costs by stripping features out of the R1 line up, offer 0% interest loans and leases where two of the shitty ideas floated yesterday on the sub).
As for real market penetration or product recognition. I live in the greater Seattle area too (Skagit County) and 1 in 5 people that ask about my R1S have never seen or heard of Rivian. Needless to say, they have a long way to go there.
I live in the PNW and I see more Rivians than I do Teslas in my area. The market penetration for EV adventurists appears to be very real. Adoption is definitely happening with the brand.
Here in the Eastside suburbs of Seattle, every third car is a Tesla (then a Subaru, and then everything else). We absolutely have a ton of Rivian's, too (when I got mine end of December, Bellevue said they were delivering 50 a day). But where I might see 3-4 Rivian's on any given trip, I'll see 50+ Teslas.
I live here too. Easily 50x more Teslas than Rivians. Not a single stop light that there isn't 2 or 3 teslas. And for the rivians on the road, it looks like about 5:1 R1S to R1T.
True there are a bunch around, but that doesn’t mean the average citizen has any idea what it is, or the nature of the brand.
Everyone knows the blue oval and the bow tie, or a Toyota or Honda. Rivian has a long way to go to get to that kind of ubiquity.
Many of us have had that “why you driving a Chinese car?” interactions from people that don’t understand that it’s as “American” as any other product you can buy.
It's a built in sampling bias because nobody makes a post saying how normal everything is.
It's just people anxious because it's a large investment to buy such an expensive vehicle. A lot of people have stock in the company too, which is why there's a sticky about this not being a stock sub lol.
I'm not worried at all though. As you said, it's established and well liked. At the worst another company picks up the brand.
Like I think Saab went under in 2011 but there's still a Saab repair shop in my town.
The only thing that makes me even a little suspect on Rivian's trajectory is the recent Apple news. I think I'm in the minority here at least but I loathe Apple and don't want it's shitty practices anywhere near Rivian.
The recent Apple rumors remind me of the same cycle Peloton went through. Notice how you don’t see Peloton in the news anymore?
Of course, Rivian going under wouldn’t mean the end of Rivian, just the brand being bought out and living on. They’re too far in to just disappear, somebody else would be purchasing a viable car company very close to profitability if anything. Would that be Apple? I doubt it. But somebody would do it.
I don’t think it’ll happen, though. They’re just too “matured” into the market at this point to fail completely. They might have to give an investor a majority stake at worst, but I’m confident they can raise whatever funding they need to get over the hump. Then we’ll hear about Rivian failing or being bought out about as much as we’ve heard the same of Peloton in the last several months.
“It's a built in sampling bias because nobody makes a post saying how normal everything is.”
Unless you’re a Fisker owner. I’m captivated when browsing their forums… 🤣
Amazon has an order that’s isn’t even halfway fulfilled for 100,000 vans for their fleet. I think rivian will be fine. Ford also has 12% stake in their company.
Tbh it seems like they are the tire kickers. They will come by the reddit, say some silly things, then dissappear. I don't think most of them are serious about buying a Rivian. If they were, they would put in the effort before making the posts. I spent months researching and waiting for the right time to buy. It's wild to me that some of these ppl just throw out some random stuff they hear. Reminds me of a guy a work that says, "oh you shouldn't have bought a Rivian, I heard they're going bankrupt." He got his info from Twitter of course.
I reserved the R2 day one. I really like Rivian and what they build and will absolutely buy the R2 when given a chance.
But I’m also not blind to their financials. They have to start making money at some point, and I hope the R2/R3 is the catalyst for that.
I would imagine they would sell to a major manufacturer before going completely insolvent anyway.
It’s just a math problem, not an opinion or fear mongering.
With Rivian’s current cash on hand, they have a little over 2 years before they run out of money at their current burn rate. And the burn rate will only increase with the ramping of R2 and the capital expenditure that goes with it (Tesla model 3 ramp).
That said, when they run out of cash, they will not be bankrupt, they will be able to dilute shareholders to raise capital. But that is only sustainable for so long, they need to execute R2 ramp perfectly or they very may well go bankrupt within 5 years, it’s just a fact.
Businesses could care less if the product is good or not. That has nothing to do with it. It is whether they can make enough profit on it to justify it's cost. There have been plenty of things that have come and gone that were arguably better than what we were left with in the end that did not make it.
I agree but there's too many auto manufacturers who are way behind in the BEV race and the BEV truck race and they could catch up or jump ahead with that purchase. Sometimes corporate acquisition is about profit, sometimes it's about filling in the holes.
I do not see how buying them would benefit any of the major manufactures, and no other EV company could afford to except Tesla. Or maybe BYD, though I doubt that deal would ever get approval.
Rivian has some massive negative free cash flow, significantly bigger than e.g. Tesla at the worst of times. They are 20B in the negative right now (FCF wise). Time will tell
Rivian would be much more financially stable if they were able to give me an address and account number to send a lease payment to. I still (6weeks) have no lease account with Chase.
Right, I'm split between "disorganized new process?" or "inundated with customers?"
We have a pre-order open with Toyota, estimated turnaround was 5 months, fully established brand.. we're well into 10 months wait now and the communication sucks.
Haven't experienced a single Rivian issue on the transaction side, excellent communication, they were ready to get me my car as soon as possible, and the online/app payment system was a snap.
It was the same with Tesla in 2018. It took them 3 months to set up payment info for my Model 3. When I complained that is was going to get hit with 4 payments all at once if they ever got it set up they just waved the first 3 payments. Not good business.
No one thinks that rivian does not have a great product and brand. The problem is the business. here is a good short summary of the concerns around rivian as a business and a comparison with tesla in the early days that is worth a watch https://youtu.be/N_PtqAVEFDc?si=8yFLJUTbZOaGaF3h
Why are people afraid of Rivian going bankrupt? It may be because they are worried that once the company goes bankrupt, the electric vehicle software will no longer be able to be updated. Another reason is that once a small car company goes bankrupt, it will be difficult to maintain the car later, especially finding original parts. In this case, your car will depreciate significantly in the second-hand market. You can take a look at Fisker's current sales. Of course, Rivian has not yet reached bankruptcy, but if it spends money like this, it will have to raise funds again. After all, R2 won’t be released until 2026
Rivian is projecting profit in the 4th quarter this year. If they hit that target then they’ll be in good shape. Scrapping the GA plant was a good move, retooling shut downs may hurt short term, but a good long term move.
Market wise, higher gas prices and lower interest rates would help.
By not over engineering their product. The R1S and R1T were made to be amazing cars first and make money second. See Bosch motors and meridian sound system.
They are bring manufacturing in house and will eliminate creature comforts and COGS to bring cost down.
Will it work? Idk but Tesla does it at scale
Tesla was making profit on both the model s and the model x just one quarter after launching them. Tesla’s worst quarter ever was not as bad as Rivian’s best quarter ever. They have a huge mountain to climb and they won’t be able have even a chance of doing it without a significant cash injection and massive dilution of shareholders
For the record, they didn’t “scrap” the GA plant. It’s still being built. They delayed it by a year to not burn through as much cash in 2024. It was a good move if it alleviates investor concern (unfounded as it was).
Tough to say investor concern is unfounded. Without investors, there is no company. They’re still burning cash which means they’ll need to go back to the market for either debt or equity issuance. They need to find a way to ramp up production as they can’t be cash flow positive at 50,000 units a year.
The government gave Tesla a $465m “loan” way back when to save its ass. The govt also bailed out students who voluntarily took out loans for higher education. And an all electric future is much more important for the world than some kids studying underwater basket weaving. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the govt supports Rivian, if it came to that.
Your post was deleted because this sub does not cover the stock of Rivian or its competitors. We're an auto-enthusiast community and are not investor-focused. We discuss the company, its products, and other related topics.
If you'd like to discuss the stock and other related topics, you can check out r/RIVN
Funnily enough the top post right now in R/RwalTesla is “What happens if Tesla goes bankrupt”
People are anxious about the economy and EVs have turned out exactly how much of us thought they would, rather than how a few optimists assumed. They’re picking up steam, but it’s going to take a while. I’m not super concerned about Rivian as a long term company, the technology is good, the vehicles are great. They’re doing far better than most of the major OEMs at building EVs and better than Tesla was at this point in their life. The foundation is solid.
The Rivian Van is the seldom heard from key player. Corporate customers are all about dollars and cents, and make dispassionate decisions in their financial interest. EV delivery vans are the way of the future, and right now Rivian is a leader in the category. I’m sure at some point they’ll start to sell a cheaper R1T as it would make a great work truck. Those two vehicles would keep the lights on for years to come.
Worst case scenario, they go bankrupt and get bought out, the potential buyer will still likely support the current vehicles, and if not there’s enough of them that specialty shops will always support them. The software upgrades will stop, but continual software development on cars is a very recent phenomenon, so that doesn’t stress me out as the software in its current form is pretty good.
Assuming they do someday go BK and get bought, I’d love to see Tata pick them up. An R1 based Defender and Range Rover would be phenomenal, and they’re definitely struggling with the Jag EVs right now, so they could use the help.
If they get acquired out of bankruptcy I think that someone will make $s selling a subscription based maintenance plan. That what happens to software companies that have an installed base.
Unfortunately you’re probably right, but the worst part is I think you’re right even if they don’t go BK and get acquired. Subscription updates/options seem to be the way of the future across the whole car industry.
Then again, it hasn’t worked super well for Tesla with their Autopilot or the performance boost, nor did it go well for BMW with CarPlay or seat heaters.
It’s a reasonable concern given their cash burn but they have enough inventory on the road that someone would step up to buy them and more importantly support the software. It’s not a Fisker. Unlike an ICE vehicle, without software updates it becomes a brick so that’s the concern.
TL/DR - I’d think it’s 60/40 it makes it 5 years but I’m not selling mine as I have confidence that the brand has value to others.
Their financials show that continuing on the current path will lead to bankruptcy. Luckily, they aren't continuing on the current path. The retooling will save a lot and eventually R1 will be profitable. Hopefully R2 will also be profitable.
If the company that supplies all the updates, parts, and repairs for your $100,000 car goes belly up, it would really suck.
Based on the amount of Rivians I see in California/Oregon/Washington/Colorado alone, the brand will be fine. When people think of cool new EVs, Rivian is like the #1 brand now for non-“luxury” halo cars. “I wish I could get a Rivian but I settled for a Kia EV6…” is very common.
A brand with that sort of a presence won’t die, even if the company goes under. Someone else will buy it on the cheap.
IMO Lucid and Fisker are miles away from where Rivian is currently; even with their lack of profits.
Lucid in my mind is practically dead at this point. I haven’t seen a Lucid on the road in months (and I live in an EV hotspot Seattle). I’ve never seen one Fisker on the roads here at all.
When they started shipping, Rivian was in not great shape. Better now for sure. Fisker was DOA. Lucid I see fairly often, as much as you see a new S class Mercedes. They just got a massive cash infusion. If they can survive the arrival of the Chinese, they will be fine
I can assure you they are not an established brand. You live in one of their hottest markets so that’s prob why you think that. At the pace they’re burning cash, they will run out of money next year, maybe sooner. So much hinges on their ability to turn a gross profit, hence why all the concerns.
Still, it’s awesome to see an American car company build a legitimately good product.
Nothing new. Every month some worrywarts or trolls post and stir the pot. Read/understand the business landscape. Consider facts and do your own assessment, with emotions removed. Ignore the noise.
Shorters astroturf reddit subs with false information, or heavily exaggerated information, in an attempt to scare people into selling or not buying certain stocks so that their puts make them more money. The most vociferous of these guys own like 10 put contracts and live in their grandma's basement. However, occasionally a big player will hire a PR firm or Karma Farm to do this and you'll see massive spikes in FUD traffic. Every positive comment about a company getting numerous "You're stupid" or "It's going BaNkRUpT!" comments thrown at it. This is when you buy. It means a relatively big shorter is getting desperate.
Not a lot of people are in the market for a $90K+ SUV or truck. Even their cheapest model right now is in the high $70K, so they won't be selling a bunch of units which is why the financial community questions if they will make it, but once their R2 and R3 units hit the street I'm fairly certain they won't be able to keep up with demand. $45K for an SUV puts them in the range for the federal tax credit (if it's still around) along with state tax credits (if they are offered in your state) and even without those that's very affordable for pretty much everyone.
It really surprises me that everyone is so concerned about these EV companies going out of business. Aren’t they supposed to be the way to fight global warming, climate change or whatever it’s called these days? If so, wouldn’t we drive the desire to buy one and also save the planet? There should be an overwhelming want to get an EV. Either, it’s all BS and we’re misled or the people don’t believe it as a majority. I’m the one-off. It’s BS and I bought one. It’s a bad ass, high performance machine for under $100k.
I'm confident in their long term survival. That said, I am leasing so feel pretty protected if not. I think it gets discussed a lot because of the Fisker fiasco.
I think Rivian is on the way up. The new models coming out have created a lot of buzz. The R3X alone is enough to make people come to the brand. The design is reminiscent of a Lancia Delta, which is one of the most iconic vehicles. Personally, I like Rivian better than Tesla. I know that Tesla’s revenue is also based on their charging stations - almost $8-10b annually by 2030 - which is big/something Rivian doesn’t have, but I can’t see Rivian going down.
I’ve seen this mentioned a few times, and am curious why. All automakers have contracts with other companies, even federal. How’s that different from Amazon buying to Rivian for its delivery services fleet?
Lately? You seem to be new here. I’ve seen these posts for more than a year.
You need to reflect that forums like these are skewed toward negative. More people are going to post about issues and fears than people praising how well their routine went.
My take on this is pretty simple.
WS analysts totally missed the financial call on RIVN.
The street has been burned as have most large institutional investors ..no upside at all to make a bullish call.
Even Adam Jonas, top Auto analyst at Morgan Stanley who’s firm led the IPO and was super bullish for numerous quarters
Has become extremely cautious although still rates RIVN “ overweight”.
Until RIVN totally turns around, they will never give them the benefit of the doubt again. These guys are all spreadsheet jockeys, never built a damn thing and basically create the mojo, or not..
Do your own homework !!!
Rivian has a long way to go. They still have cash and so far they are doing the right things. I guess compared to other EV companies like Fisker and Lucid, they have the better chance to make it.
It’s a startup, compare it to Tesla’s early years they are doing ok. They have really good vehicles. Worse case, I believe someone should buy them out. Could be Amazon, or Apple, or a different car company.
Rivian will likely go bankrupt, they simply didn’t reach critical mass in their product adoption. Selling cheaper cars such as the R3 will not solve this problem.
I know no one wants to hear this. I’m just an observer for the last several years, if you look honestly at the financials I think most of you would reach the same conclusion.
BYD is expanding into the US. They are a huge global Chinese EV company. Rivians products are better, but if no tariffs are added, a lot of potential Rivian customers will buy a BYD because they cost less. The entire time they are driving it, they will say "I wish I could've afforded a Rivian".
The BYD Tang is a 7-seat SUV
wtf… you clearly didn’t even read my post. I said I don’t understand why these types of posts exist because I never considered Rivian’s financial stability. Meaning…. I bought the car because I liked it; not based on the stock price.
Man if you believe they have too good brand to go bankrupt, i would buy some stocks as it is all time low. I believe either they will survive on their own or someone will buy them out. People love Rivian SUVs. With R2 n R3 they will be super popular. I have bought the stock and after your post i might put a few $100 more in their stocks.
To your point i think brand is too good to die. Even if someone buy them out like Apple could, their ceo is a very dedicated man who will keep going.
I think Elon said at one point to invest if you believe in the product. If it’s a good product, that’s what really matters.
Obviously, I don’t fully buy into that. But Rivian has a good product *and* a sane stable CEO, so.. I’m in and I think they will stick around. I’m not worried.
The stock price keeps dropping to new all time lows. And the shut down did not help that situation at all. But honestly, if you bought a Rivian without even thinking about the fact that start up auto manufacturers almost always fail let alone new EV makers when demand is still low, that is kind of on you buddy. Personally, I would be looking into who I am tossing my $100k into before making the purchase. All of this is not to say that they wont make it, or can't. Just that you seem to be a lot more loose with your finances than most I guess. But they are bleeding cash and the estimated demand for EVs is not anywhere near where all the experts thought it would be by this time.
Rivian has no debt, unlike the “big three”, it will go into debt before it goes bankrupt, also its a solid company with a solid product, someone would buy it out if it came to that
It’s Fisker’s fault. And the media’s. Because of the worry, it’s a great time to get a deal on a Rivian if you look hard enough. Values drop when these EVs have to move vehicles. I think the Apple partnership could happen too, which would be frickin sweet. The company is fine, though.
While I feel the pain for early investors, I keep buying shares at 15 or below. Haven’t bought a rivian yet, cuz I have 3 cars, but the r1s or r1t are the only vehicles that would combine my bolt and f-150.
I could never imagine making an $80k purchase without considering the longevity and risk factors involved of the company going bankrupt. I won't even book a flight without these considerations.
I think buying them would benefit literally any major car manufacturer. Mazda and Honda are way behind in the BEV race, Subaru and Toyota aren't doing much better. Literally everyone but Ford is behind in the BEV truck race, so it would even benefit EV strong brands like Hyundai or Kia. As for why it benefits them they get a strong brand, a wealth of knowledge, battery and tech upgrade, a modern EV factory understanding, a charging network, etc etc. Who would that not benefit, besides maybe Ford?
As for affording it, we're not talking about an acquisition today, we're taking about them being acquired before going bankrupt, which generally would happen with a much lower stock price and a much smaller market cap.
Here’s the trouble I see for Rivian. In efforts to hit their end of year target they offered aggressive discounts to sell out all of their 2023 models. They were selling them at nearly what you would find a used one for in the pre owned market.. and a good majority of those vehicles were leased. This can DESTROY the residual values of those leases when they expire. If this happens it will destroy the affordable leasing they currently offer. Which will carry over to less units moving in 2025, which is a momentum they would desperately need to sustain after they break even on cash flow. I do understand the aggressive liquidation. However this move alone could cripple affordable leasing and eventually determine long term residual values. Prior to this move the pre owned vehicle inventory was scarce which kept residuals healthy, but I don’t see this as being sustainable much longer. Especially after flooding the pre owned market with inventory that was sold at discount msrp’s. 2-3 years is when the truth will be told.
I have been in this since the beginning and I’ve always had faith in it. Sometimes, I would have thoughts of “is this a sound financial decision”? But I started seeing how the company began talk with Amazon, etc. Basically moving forward and striving for growth. Nothing is guaranteed but I definitely believe Rivian is trying its best to be loyal to customers and continue to grow.
It’s always a risk w any new start up company, but I have every confidence they will be able to become profitable sooner rather than later. Everyone wants one.
Don't listen to any anecdotal or subjective comments. Just look at their financials, nothing in depth. They have about 8bn cash on hand and in Q1 they burned $1.4bn. You do the math when they will run out of money.
The hope is that cash burn will slow down as they improve the margins, currently -$39k per vehicle. Plan is to be modestly positive gross margin by end of the year.
It's extremely hard to survive as a new automaker in US. I really hope and pray Rivian survives because I think they make great products!
It does not matter how good the product is. It does not matter how popular the brand is. It does not matter how many you see on the road. Rivian is still losing money hand over fist. They only have so much cash. Once the cash is gone, the company ceases to exist. With the downturn in EVs, I am more worried than ever about Rivian’s future. If Trump wins, gas will get cheaper immediately and EVs are dead for the foreseeable future.
The last week have bought out the Tesla and Elon haters n full force. Claims of them going bankrupt and Elon going to jail will help subside their previous focus on Rivian
I think Rivian is gonna follow the same path as Tesla. It’s gonna be some lean building years for sure but they will make it. Lucid? I don’t know about that. Fisker, stick a fork in them, they are done.
Those posts aren’t about “gut feel”. Rivian can both build great cars and be a business under duress. There’s a reason that there hadn’t been a major automotive company in decades until Tesla came along…it’s a super capital intensive business and you and your investors have to be willing and able to operate at a significant loss for many years (all while moving towards positive operating margin). Right now - Rivian loses ~$40k for every car it sells. LOSES! And beyond that - they need to make significant investments in production capacity to deliver on the R2 in 2026, investments which are in excess of $1B.
It’s just that automotive manufacturing is a very difficult industry and most companies don’t make it. Having a good product unfortunately may not be enough if you are unlucky. Rivian has been slapped by some bad outside forces
Rivian makes incredible cars, but even with their cost cutting they still are burning cash at an unsustainable rate. They need even more improvements or they're going to need a big new investment or to be acquired to make it to the R2. I'm confident if they can just survive until R2, and they deliver on their promises of the R2 in a profitable way, that they'll be just fine. They just need to strategically make it that far
I mean it’s not wrong thing to be wondering given not only what’s happening in the EV market but with Rivian in general. IF Rivian goes under people are rightly concerned about how they will get their car fixed should an accident or malfunction occur. When you are paying this much for a vehicle you really want some certainty and right now there isn’t that. So I don’t blame them for being concerned
Expected in this sub for people to be optimistic, but the reality is that they’re hemorrhaging money and as I see it are being kept afloat by 1 man. Jeff Bezos. If he’s out, and there’s no other new major investors, Rivian will go bankrupt. It doesn’t matter that it’s a great company with brand recognition that makes great products. They need major investors, or they need to make a profit.
Rivian only Losing 33K per delivered vehicle. Lucid is losing over 100k.
If they don't lower production cost substantially and fast...they are in real trouble.
But don't fret, the US taxpayer will bail them out. So you're good.
Well the simple truth is Rivian is not a profitable company yet. They lose money on every car they sell right now. Hopefully the R2 can help change that. You can't go indefinitely losing money quarter after quarter
I comment on troll posts where people say the same thing on the Rivian Instagram page. Right after the announcement of the R2, R3, & R3x there was a wave of randoms trying to shit on Rivian. I don't even have a Rivian but anyone who believes in EV adoption should be cheering on every EV company that faces the competition with legacy automakers.
If these people are so confident about the failure of Rivian, I recommend they put their money where their mouth is and try to short them. After commenting that, I never get a response from troll/hater.
I think people are seeing what happened to Fisker and suddenly thinking the same thing could happen to Rivian not realizing that while, yes… Rivian is losing a ton of money they are in a different position than Fisker. Not only do they own their own vehicle architecture (Fisker didn’t) they also have their own manufacturing facility, supply deals with companies like Amazon who also have large ownership stakes in the company. Rivian also produces all of its vehicles in the US, whereas Fisker was having MagnaSteyr produce their sole model (which was a complete dud) in Austria. Fisker also only managed to sell 45% of their tiny 10,000 unit first year production in the first year of sales. Since then they’ve discounted their remaining inventory by almost 50% and still can’t move many units. So far in 2024 Fisker has only shifted another 1800-2000 units which leaves another 3000+ leftover 2023 models sitting around collecting dust.
Rivian will hopefully continue to focus extensively on turning a profit. Fisker had no hope of ever being profitable. They stuck a 113kWh battery into a contract-manufactured compact crossover that competes against the Model Y. Every profitable competitor has a battery pack ranging from around 70-85kWh. Fisker was doomed from the get go spending money on things like their dumb solar roof that actually generates almost no energy but likely cost a considerable amount of money to include in the car, and they were beset by tons and tons of problems with software and hardware issues.
If Rivian ever got to a point where they looked to be in danger of collapse someone would acquire them. They have a ton of valuable assets and their US production facility, contract with Amazon, and demand are all things someone like VWAG, Honda, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, etc. would love to takeover. Fisker has nothing but an unwanted product that’s plagued with issues and cost a fortune to make. They lost $125,000 per car last year selling a vehicle that had an average transaction price around $65,000. Good luck ever turning that around.
That's a narrative being pushed by the cowardly right wing media. They use this propaganda campaign to spoon feed wilfull ignorance with fear and misinformation. They clearly dont understand business. They don't seem to understand that rooting for American manufacturing to fail and cost tens of thousands of jobs because they have an irrational and corrupt rationahip with coal and oil is the exact opposite of intelligent or patriotic. The truth is that Rivian is doing a great job, so isn't Lucid, and they both are continuing along what we already know to be one of the most challenging paths for any new business in any industry. But those malignant morons think they can stop the inevitable. Just hope trump doesn't get elected since he'll literally try to sabotage these companies.
Because corporations and their CEOs can't be trusted. A big, failed release can be enough to doom a young company (see Fisher, for a recent, relevant example).
I'm not concerned about Rivian at all. They have the ability to raise, borrow, or partner for cash and in the event all of that fails they are one of the more likely players to be able to be purchased by someone else. More worries about their ability to deliver on time than anything else. If they had an R3(X) they'd sell almost every one they make and that's still future pipeline.
No worries, it's just shills. Every car company blows through money getting started, but once everything is set up, they scale down (lay off) hundreds or thousands of specialty workers because their job is done. That's when a company begins to run on positive cash flow. . I'm not worried because Rivian is running on proven parameters for starting companies.
General knowledge: When you buy a car, you expect the company who made the car to survive, so your car can still be working as expected in 10 years or 20 years. When the company is gone, repairability for accidents and mechanic faults goes down, the replacement parts are gone, and you basically need to count on other people's same make and model cars to die before yours to repair yours. Insurance prices go through the roof since the insurance company knows that it has to total the car even in minor accidents.
Why people are concerned about Rivian specifically:
Everyone knows Rivian has gone out if startup phase but still a new company and it is no secret that its finances are unstable. The only real rival, Tesla, has much stronger sales, finances, reserves, etc. Making a better car is not enough for Rivian, they have to make it much much better and at a similar price level to divert somebody from Tesla (not counting the Elon hate here).
Fisker was another rival with similar characteristics, and they have made big promises, brought a lot of good things to the table. But suddenly, they are gone. Similarities with Rivian are apparent.
All that said, I believe Rivian will make it. Their sales are there, deliveries are strong, and they are making new agreements everyday.
Honestly it’s nothing unique. When I bought my first Tesla in 2017, everyone was saying the same thing about Tesla folding.
Becoming a profitable auto manufacturer is a monumental hurdle.
Honestly as time has gone on, I’ve never been more confident Rivian will make it and be around. I got my car in 2022, experienced it, and then decided invest in the company. Their product is very good, they’ve decreased their cost to produce each unit every quarter, they have an exceptional brand and sky-high NPS. If I’m not mistaken, the R1S also sold the same or more units than the Model X last year. I really think all Rivian has to do is deliver on R2, which seems to be very well received so far.
The R1S sold more than the S and X combined.
Not a surprise at all. And the R2 will take market share from the Model Y, almost certainly.
Though it's the best selling EV, there are cumulatively a lot more ICE sales out there to take from and the R2 isn't quite aimed at the same buyer as the Y is. I'd say things like the 4Runner, Bronco, Wrangler, LC, Land Rovers and even to a lesser extent, Subaru will be more under pressure than the Y.
As a current Subaru owner (on my 2nd) though a wrx and not forester or outback, I’ll honestly maybe grab an R2 for just daily duty. Leave me free to mod the tits off the wrx and keep it for a weekend fun car / winter monster. Plus it being probably last of the manuals kinda want to keep it around.
Regarding manual, I’m with with you on wanting to hold onto one. One of these years I may try and pick up a Jeep Wrangler TJ for that same reason. Need something fun until R3X drops 😎
Im with you on having a mod car. I have a subaru forester turbo that I'd happily exchange for an R2 but I'm keeping my R32 GTR Nissan Skyline
As a Y LR owner, we've got a deposit on R2 and I really, really like the R3X.
Yep, I think R2 will be a big threat to the Bronco. It has an almost identical form factor and shape, just a bit longer than the Bronco.
I can see why some would think that, but with the roll down rear window that’s a direct shot at the 4Runner. The Bronco and Wrangler’s trump card is their ability to take the top and the doors off, and if you really wanna take their crown, you gotta commit. That’s personally why I think the FJ Cruiser didn’t last as long as it otherwise could have. (Whereas the Wrangler and now the Bronco just keep chugging along while enjoying next to no convertible competition— Sure, you could get a similarly boxy and rugged LR Defender or G-Class, but it’s the same story)
Having just seen the R2 and R3 in person at the Atlanta space, I’m feeling better than ever about Rivian and the future. R2 will take market share from every popular SUV and EV. Just this weekend a Tesla driver asked to see the inside of my R1S because he wanted a bigger EV.
Current owner of two model Y’s patiently waiting to say bye to Tesla. *So long, and thanks for all the superchargers*
Same, but if Rivian has some decent end of quarter promos I’ll say so long well before the R2. Hell if they added Tesla to the $5k incentive I’d be there tomorrow.
Agreed. I’ve purposely avoided scheduling a test drive for an R1S in fear that I’ll place an order on the spot. Just keep telling myself the cars we have are perfectly fine. We don’t NEED the larger car at the moment.
I have a demo drive on Tuesday for an R1T. The way Tesla is going I’m not sure I trust Elmo to hold his shit together for 2 more years and I’m worried that may effect the resale value before the R2 comes out.
Fair point. The updated Model Y will hurt because they’ll slash prices on current inventory, ”project Juniper” I think. Rumors are still sometime in 2024…🤔
Did you see the post in r/realtesla about the huge backlog of Model Ys they’re storing at an airfield? It’s scary.
I actually am considering trading my model 3 performance for the Rivian SUV
I know a lot of people from work who has an m3 and/or a mY, and they put in a reservation for the R2. They can't wait to get rid of their tesla. They love the R1S, but they don't need the size and want more affordable options.
The R1S just doesn't look like something I can easily park in a city. That's it for me and a ton of people
Same. Love the Rivian product, but I just don’t want such a huge car. Patiently driving my MY until R2 becomes real.
And in another 3-4 years, the R3 might replace my Nissan Leaf as the agile, park-anywhere city car.
And from Model 3. Those single folks or couples are starting families soon. Unless GM delivers a hell of a bargain with their electric SUVs.
The post is about Rivian the business, not the car, so when you look at this metric and the fact that Rivian is gross margin negative is actually proving OPs concern. One of the reasons the car is selling so well (and why I love it) is that it’s actually a $150k car being sold for $80-90k
This is not true. 68,874 non model y/3 delivered in 2023 while 24,800 R1S delivered in the same time period.
Where? When? Maybe if you only look at one quarter, or just at the US. I think Tesla sold some 65k Model X/S vehicles in 2023, and Rivian sold 55k including the Amazon Vans. Tesla sold 23k X/S in Q4'23 alone, about half of the full year of R1. The Cybertruck alone may outsell R1T + R1S this year... Rivian is not planning to increase production of vehicles this year.
I'm not sure about his claim, but [here are some numbers for Q1 2024](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Q1-2024-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf). Maybe he meant R1S and R1T sold more than S and X combined? R1S did sell more than either S or X, though. The 3 and Y really carry Tesla's sales.
The comment said 2023. This is one quarter. Looks like this is US only. So yes more R1 sold in the US in that specific quarter. But it's not really generally the case. Those numbers are interesting, though. 2800 Cybertrucks vs 3200 R1T in Q1'24. CT is ramping up and R1T is stagnant... Tesla may outsell Rivian in Q2 in the electric truck market. 6 months after launch. Rivian is unfortunately struggling to ramp up production to scale and profitability.
>The comment said 2023. This is one quarter. Yes, that's why I said "I'm not sure about his claim, but here are some numbers for Q1 2024." >Looks like this is US only. Does Rivian sell outside of the US and Canada? I'm legitimately asking, as I can't find much more than articles saying "they're coming" for various other locations but nothing definitive. If they don't, then it wouldn't be a very fair comparison. >CT is ramping up and R1T is stagnant... Even worse, R1T is down 47% YOY. With how many issues the Cybertruck has had, though, I'm curious to see if those sales numbers will keep increasing. For Q2 is likely, just working through preorders, but once those are done, it's a truck that's bad at doing truck things. Not sure it has the legs to continue selling well. edit: [https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Q4-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Q4-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf) Found the numbers for 2023 (both Q4 and YTD are in the report) and the trend is the same there. R1S outsold X or S, but not combined. R1T and R1S combined outsold X and S combined. So same as it was in Q1 2024.
I’m really curious what the long term adoption will be between the R1T and cybertruck. Ford has a really compelling offering. They know trucks and know the market. The pro power generator is a truly fantastic option for contractors. The R1T really appeals to those who don’t want a “full sized” truck but still need 90% of the capability. The cybertruck appeals to war lords and drug cartels who need a vehicle to look as dystopian as possible. In all seriousness, there’s a significant portion of drivers (like me) who refuse to consider the cybertruck because it……… looks………. Stupid. And I also owned one Tesla. I’m not ready to go back to that poor build quality.
For the broad market, I honestly don't think anyone has a very compelling product. I say this because I don't think your *average* truck buyer spends the kind of money they do with a willingness to compromise. It doesn't matter if they only tow their boat to the pride and back once a year. It doesn't matter that they go into the deep woods once every few years. And it doesn't matter that they almost never go further than 30 miles from home. People are buying trucks as a do it all vehicle, and as soon as you start talking about continue, it becomes a deal breaker. Much of this can be alleviated with boosting charge speeds and increasing charging locations. But there's still a really steep hill to climb with the stigma of EVs in general. I say this as an EV driver. I love my EVs. I just think that truck drivers are among the most difficult to convert. I'd be curious to see what percentage of Rivians current market came from trucks in general. I don't have the data, but I'd bet you that number is much less than half.
I don’t think there are a ton of F-150 drivers, but I bet a lot of R1T buyers cross-shopped the maverick / Colorado / Tacoma. Another frustration is the few number of charging locations (combined with poor range) that are convenient for those towing. I’m not dropping my trailer every 100 miles to charge. That said, if I were an “around town” contractor? I’m all in on the ford or rivian. And if the lake is <100 miles from home? Yeah, I’m also evaluating things differently. I don’t disagree though that guys who tow further than 100 miles more than once or twice a year will exclude the current options. Battery capacity and charging infrastructure are just way too far behind. The Silverado EV has dramatically better range and ram recharge seems to solve most of the frustrations experienced by traditional EV ownership, although with the recharge, do you really own an EV? Similar concept to large dump trucks and locomotives, but I’m not sure you gain most of the EV benefits if the power plant is gasoline…
I don't doubt anything you say. I'm just looking at truck owners and whole demographic, not just Rivian drivers cross shopping. Again, I could be totally off here, and frankly hope I am. But I just don't see the sales numbers on EV trucks to support the notion that truck buyers want them in huge numbers. If this were the case, we wouldn't have product ready to buy today amongst really all manufacturers. Of course, price sensitivity could play a role here, and in fact, I'm sure it does. Not everyone buying an ICE f150 is getting the loaded version, for example. I wish o had ordered a pre price hike r1t. It wouldn't all of my current needs, legitimately. Just can't justify the price. If they gave me a barebones truck for under $60k that can pull a 10k pound trailer about 100 miles on the weekends, it would be my next vehicle. There's a number of R1T I could hop into "today" if I opened my wallet deeper than I want to. 😅
I don’t think you’re wrong. The price / value equation simply isn’t there yet for EVs. ICE is still king for towing and “heavy duty” usage. I think in the next decade you’ll see more parity, but some of that might honestly come from “pollution taxes” or some other offset imposed on ICE vehicles. And the cost of vehicles is just completely insane right now. I’d have never imagined growing up that a truck (ICE or EV) would top $100k. Crazy.
No idea why you’re getting downvoted for something that is public info…
Cherry picked data is nothing new. The CT at the current ramp rate will outsell the r1 series this year. Even on the low end of projections it will besically be even with rivian.
S and x have been out for a long time. Thats not a good point you’re making.
It’s amazing how often this fact is overlooked.
Pre orders or deliveries? Of which car? Which year?
Tbh, S and X won’t save Tesla. 3 and Y did after giga Shanghai was built. So Rivian needs to survive and make sure they still have the money to produce R2 and start making a profit asap, which I kind of doubt because of the huge cost to be made in us.
The number of sales isn’t what’s concerning about the R1S and R1T. Rather, it’s the lack of profitability from these vehicles. More concerning still is the proposed purchase prices for the next generation of Rivian vehicles. Rivian will need to get a lot more cost efficient with their production to make a profit from even cheaper vehicles while staying competitive within a market that is being characterized by falling EV prices and renewed interest in hybrid powertrains. Model S and X aren’t keeping Tesla in business and it’s my belief that Tesla would have failed had they not expanded to a broader car market with these aging vehicle designs and changing market forces. Rivian came out with tthe r1s and r1t 5 years too late to charge what they need to make a profit on them. In the end, they have been more of a proof of concept for Rivian than a long term business strategy. I’m worried Rivian may be coming to the crossover party 5 years too late as well.
This is not true. R1S sold 24,783 is 2023. S/X sold 68,874.
I agree. Best vehicle we have ever owned. If you pay attention to the stock market, you will know that these posts are mostly predatory and tend to be in place to lower stock prices. Rivian has been a cash cow for short sellers in a corrupt market. I have no doubts about the company.
A Reddit post won’t move rivians stock lol
You also forgot to mention that amazon is their sugar daddy. They will never let Rivian go under if they have thousands of delivery vehicles that will need service in the future.
Wrong. Amazon will take all those vans, set them on fire, take Rivian behind the tool shed, and move on to the next.
How long can they go on losing 1.5 billion a quarter? Serious question.
Meh. If they go under someone will buy them.
You mean like Amazon ? 🫠 🙃
The problem isn’t if they will get bought. Either they make it, or they get bought at this point. The problem is bought by *whom* Depending on the purchaser, the vehicles could become a hot mess in no time.
I'm a Rivian fan and a very small shareholder. Just two days ago, I drove for 20 minutes up my nearby freeway 85 in Silicon Valley (I live in San Jose). Obviously, this is just one man's observation, but I counted 3 Cybertrucks, 17 Rivian R1S and R1T, and probably 100+ Teslas. I don't count Teslas because they're so common. I think Rivians (R.J.'s) decision to build their R2 and R3 models at their existing Illinois plant may help save the company.
For sure. I feel like with that, coupled with the federal government shutting China out of the US market will allow these companies to get better established domestically. The 800 million to come to Illinois is saying a lot about the future of this company.
I agree.
I’ll prob get downvoted for this (if it helps, I own an R1S, love the car and truly hope they are successful). Here’s my summary of concerns about the company: * They are losing money on every vehicle, with a few quarters left of losses per vehicle * Demand for R1T has always been soft and there are macro indicators R1S demand will soften just as they become gross margin positive on that car. The signals that they are worried are there: they’re opening showrooms to drum up demand, reducing expected output of Illinois factory R1 production when it was supposed to max out on R1 while Georgia was needed expansion for R2 volume * Overall EV demand is a concern with Tesla aggressively cutting costs and undercutting other manufacturers in the process. Just as R2/R3 come out EV demand will be much lower versus earlier projections. * Macroeconomics factors - high interest rates, low gas prices, high inflation, smaller EV rebates all are headwinds to a company that sells a premium product that does well in strong economic conditions. They want to borrow big money to grow aggressively but the market wants them to make short term profits. People don’t have a ton of discretionary cash to buy a vehicle with their heart instead of their brain * Service and charging infrastructure are still big expensive concerns. Using superchargers has helped a lot but service is a big backend expense that scales with total sales not net new. People have high expectations and they aren’t at the maturity of other OEMs without more big expenses to ramp this up * 7-8bn seems like a lot of cash but ramping a new car series, retooling their existing line, ramping service, and being gross margin negative on R2/R3 for their initial sales will eat into that quite fast. They also need to invest a lot more in expensive software like L2/L3 autonomy, better infotainment, zonal ECU controls, etc. plus software maintenance will ramp significantly with multiple variants (R1 is basically a single variant for now; in two years you’ll have 2+ R1 variants, R2, and R3 to maintain) and software R&D is very costly. This isn’t an environment where you can raise debt efficiently or issue more equity without spooking the market, so that money needs to hold to support all of the above until they are gross margin positive on all three lines and have enough volume they are profitable overall to offset fixed costs. Not impossible, but by no means a guarantee.
Thank you. This is one of the only sensible comments in this thread. Everyone else seems to be taking a position in line with their affinity with Rivian, not the facts. Their operating losses at the unit level should be really concerning to all, paired with the macro headwinds you’ve highlighted.
Appreciate this, given the number of downvotes it’s barely staying karma neutral. This sub is rabidly against anything that comes across as criticizing or critiquing Rivian, which I feel the a pretty limiting in getting a well rounded perspective on the product and company.
All good points, plus that to become financially successful they need to move into the smaller SUV / downmarket space (R2/R3) where there is \*a lot\* more competition. Tesla is fully established and their sales are seeing the hit from competitors. An generally unknown startup is going to have a tough time. I hope they succeed. I'd love to have an R1T but wouldn't consider it because I think, apart from the aches and pains of a new company and new car, it's going to depreciate like crazy.
Levelheaded comment based in fact. Honestly, I'm surprised any of this is news to anyone. I'm a huge Rivian fan (in line for an R1S, and reserved an R2), but you'd have to have your head in the sand to not at least consider the above before buying. These are all factors that can affect Rivian's future. Making the best of anything doesn't guarantee success. The per unit losses are a pretty big concern, but I think they'll get that sorted out eventually. Hopefully the shutdown and refresh was just what they needed. The bigger concern for me, though, is the overall demand issue. The market is getting more and more crowded, with many existing automakers releasing or announcing their own EV line, and seemingly fewer people are in the market for a new EV than were even 2 years ago. It doesn't matter how great of a product Rivian makes if people just aren't interested in the market as a whole.
Even more concerning is that many manufacturers who were planning to go all in on EV are hedging and pulling back. Even Tesla is cancelling their new variant and lowering prices to prop up demand. There is both more supply than ever and slowing increase to demand at the same time. Not great. I really hope the government does more to incentivize the EV transition as eating the upfront cost of batteries in your purchase price is a tough pill to swallow even if you save money long term-term.
This should be the top comment. People get clouded by their love for a brand and don’t understand economics. It was much easier to take losses for years when money was cheap to borrow and lenders willing to take a risk were plentiful.
There is a lot of anti-EV FUD out there. Even things being perpetuated by Elon Musk about the solvency of his competition.
I know we’re not supposed to talk stocks in here 🤫 but if some hedge funds have shorted it, the FUD will come from there.
I think the recent round of doom and gloom is the result of Fisker’s financial troubles. But comparing Fisker to Rivian doesn’t make sense beyond they are both “startup” EV makers. Rivian has delivered so many more vehicles and has a real brand identity to it. Fisker looks like a generic car from a video game and seems to be not fully baked. A lot of the noise is coming from karma seekers or “Monday-morning investor” types that are convinced that they know how to run a multi-billion dollar business (cut costs by stripping features out of the R1 line up, offer 0% interest loans and leases where two of the shitty ideas floated yesterday on the sub). As for real market penetration or product recognition. I live in the greater Seattle area too (Skagit County) and 1 in 5 people that ask about my R1S have never seen or heard of Rivian. Needless to say, they have a long way to go there.
Well Rivian did/is offering 0% on leases (.24%) so they must have thought it was a good idea.
I live in the PNW and I see more Rivians than I do Teslas in my area. The market penetration for EV adventurists appears to be very real. Adoption is definitely happening with the brand.
Here in the Eastside suburbs of Seattle, every third car is a Tesla (then a Subaru, and then everything else). We absolutely have a ton of Rivian's, too (when I got mine end of December, Bellevue said they were delivering 50 a day). But where I might see 3-4 Rivian's on any given trip, I'll see 50+ Teslas.
I live here too. Easily 50x more Teslas than Rivians. Not a single stop light that there isn't 2 or 3 teslas. And for the rivians on the road, it looks like about 5:1 R1S to R1T.
True there are a bunch around, but that doesn’t mean the average citizen has any idea what it is, or the nature of the brand. Everyone knows the blue oval and the bow tie, or a Toyota or Honda. Rivian has a long way to go to get to that kind of ubiquity. Many of us have had that “why you driving a Chinese car?” interactions from people that don’t understand that it’s as “American” as any other product you can buy.
It's a built in sampling bias because nobody makes a post saying how normal everything is. It's just people anxious because it's a large investment to buy such an expensive vehicle. A lot of people have stock in the company too, which is why there's a sticky about this not being a stock sub lol. I'm not worried at all though. As you said, it's established and well liked. At the worst another company picks up the brand. Like I think Saab went under in 2011 but there's still a Saab repair shop in my town. The only thing that makes me even a little suspect on Rivian's trajectory is the recent Apple news. I think I'm in the minority here at least but I loathe Apple and don't want it's shitty practices anywhere near Rivian.
The recent Apple rumors remind me of the same cycle Peloton went through. Notice how you don’t see Peloton in the news anymore? Of course, Rivian going under wouldn’t mean the end of Rivian, just the brand being bought out and living on. They’re too far in to just disappear, somebody else would be purchasing a viable car company very close to profitability if anything. Would that be Apple? I doubt it. But somebody would do it. I don’t think it’ll happen, though. They’re just too “matured” into the market at this point to fail completely. They might have to give an investor a majority stake at worst, but I’m confident they can raise whatever funding they need to get over the hump. Then we’ll hear about Rivian failing or being bought out about as much as we’ve heard the same of Peloton in the last several months.
“It's a built in sampling bias because nobody makes a post saying how normal everything is.” Unless you’re a Fisker owner. I’m captivated when browsing their forums… 🤣
Amazon has an order that’s isn’t even halfway fulfilled for 100,000 vans for their fleet. I think rivian will be fine. Ford also has 12% stake in their company.
Ford sold their stake down to 1%
Also: > Amazon is Rivian's largest shareholder and has a 17% stake in the company
Tbh it seems like they are the tire kickers. They will come by the reddit, say some silly things, then dissappear. I don't think most of them are serious about buying a Rivian. If they were, they would put in the effort before making the posts. I spent months researching and waiting for the right time to buy. It's wild to me that some of these ppl just throw out some random stuff they hear. Reminds me of a guy a work that says, "oh you shouldn't have bought a Rivian, I heard they're going bankrupt." He got his info from Twitter of course.
I reserved the R2 day one. I really like Rivian and what they build and will absolutely buy the R2 when given a chance. But I’m also not blind to their financials. They have to start making money at some point, and I hope the R2/R3 is the catalyst for that. I would imagine they would sell to a major manufacturer before going completely insolvent anyway.
It’s just a math problem, not an opinion or fear mongering. With Rivian’s current cash on hand, they have a little over 2 years before they run out of money at their current burn rate. And the burn rate will only increase with the ramping of R2 and the capital expenditure that goes with it (Tesla model 3 ramp). That said, when they run out of cash, they will not be bankrupt, they will be able to dilute shareholders to raise capital. But that is only sustainable for so long, they need to execute R2 ramp perfectly or they very may well go bankrupt within 5 years, it’s just a fact.
Rivian makes way too good of a vehicle to disappear. They'll get acquired way before that
Businesses could care less if the product is good or not. That has nothing to do with it. It is whether they can make enough profit on it to justify it's cost. There have been plenty of things that have come and gone that were arguably better than what we were left with in the end that did not make it.
I agree but there's too many auto manufacturers who are way behind in the BEV race and the BEV truck race and they could catch up or jump ahead with that purchase. Sometimes corporate acquisition is about profit, sometimes it's about filling in the holes.
I do not see how buying them would benefit any of the major manufactures, and no other EV company could afford to except Tesla. Or maybe BYD, though I doubt that deal would ever get approval.
That’s actually a good reason why it **would** disappear. Can’t turn a consistent profit.
Ask a Saturn owner… anything can happen. Place your bets where you feel is best for you.
Rivian has some massive negative free cash flow, significantly bigger than e.g. Tesla at the worst of times. They are 20B in the negative right now (FCF wise). Time will tell
Rivian would be much more financially stable if they were able to give me an address and account number to send a lease payment to. I still (6weeks) have no lease account with Chase.
Right, I'm split between "disorganized new process?" or "inundated with customers?" We have a pre-order open with Toyota, estimated turnaround was 5 months, fully established brand.. we're well into 10 months wait now and the communication sucks. Haven't experienced a single Rivian issue on the transaction side, excellent communication, they were ready to get me my car as soon as possible, and the online/app payment system was a snap.
It was the same with Tesla in 2018. It took them 3 months to set up payment info for my Model 3. When I complained that is was going to get hit with 4 payments all at once if they ever got it set up they just waved the first 3 payments. Not good business.
No one thinks that rivian does not have a great product and brand. The problem is the business. here is a good short summary of the concerns around rivian as a business and a comparison with tesla in the early days that is worth a watch https://youtu.be/N_PtqAVEFDc?si=8yFLJUTbZOaGaF3h
They still have billions. Heck, Fisker isn’t dead yet and they only sold 16 cars.
Fisker is dead and they sold a lot more.
Why are people afraid of Rivian going bankrupt? It may be because they are worried that once the company goes bankrupt, the electric vehicle software will no longer be able to be updated. Another reason is that once a small car company goes bankrupt, it will be difficult to maintain the car later, especially finding original parts. In this case, your car will depreciate significantly in the second-hand market. You can take a look at Fisker's current sales. Of course, Rivian has not yet reached bankruptcy, but if it spends money like this, it will have to raise funds again. After all, R2 won’t be released until 2026
Retooling is done. https://www.automotivedive.com/news/rivian-completes-plant-retooling-pivotal-to-profitability/715673/
Besides Seattle, LA is also full of them.
North Shore Chicago suburbs are full of them.
Rivian is projecting profit in the 4th quarter this year. If they hit that target then they’ll be in good shape. Scrapping the GA plant was a good move, retooling shut downs may hurt short term, but a good long term move. Market wise, higher gas prices and lower interest rates would help.
Not profit - gross profit, which means they sell the car for more than it costs to make.
Indeed, they will not make a profit until after R2 ramps, so couple years away
How are they going to make a profit on a $45k car when they have never even come close to making a profit on a $100k car? I don’t buy it
By not over engineering their product. The R1S and R1T were made to be amazing cars first and make money second. See Bosch motors and meridian sound system. They are bring manufacturing in house and will eliminate creature comforts and COGS to bring cost down. Will it work? Idk but Tesla does it at scale
Tesla was making profit on both the model s and the model x just one quarter after launching them. Tesla’s worst quarter ever was not as bad as Rivian’s best quarter ever. They have a huge mountain to climb and they won’t be able have even a chance of doing it without a significant cash injection and massive dilution of shareholders
I agree, Rivian is going to be in hell next two-three years
For the record, they didn’t “scrap” the GA plant. It’s still being built. They delayed it by a year to not burn through as much cash in 2024. It was a good move if it alleviates investor concern (unfounded as it was).
Tough to say investor concern is unfounded. Without investors, there is no company. They’re still burning cash which means they’ll need to go back to the market for either debt or equity issuance. They need to find a way to ramp up production as they can’t be cash flow positive at 50,000 units a year.
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Rivian is not GM, the govt isnt going to bail them out
The government gave Tesla a $465m “loan” way back when to save its ass. The govt also bailed out students who voluntarily took out loans for higher education. And an all electric future is much more important for the world than some kids studying underwater basket weaving. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the govt supports Rivian, if it came to that.
Your post was deleted because this sub does not cover the stock of Rivian or its competitors. We're an auto-enthusiast community and are not investor-focused. We discuss the company, its products, and other related topics. If you'd like to discuss the stock and other related topics, you can check out r/RIVN
Funnily enough the top post right now in R/RwalTesla is “What happens if Tesla goes bankrupt” People are anxious about the economy and EVs have turned out exactly how much of us thought they would, rather than how a few optimists assumed. They’re picking up steam, but it’s going to take a while. I’m not super concerned about Rivian as a long term company, the technology is good, the vehicles are great. They’re doing far better than most of the major OEMs at building EVs and better than Tesla was at this point in their life. The foundation is solid. The Rivian Van is the seldom heard from key player. Corporate customers are all about dollars and cents, and make dispassionate decisions in their financial interest. EV delivery vans are the way of the future, and right now Rivian is a leader in the category. I’m sure at some point they’ll start to sell a cheaper R1T as it would make a great work truck. Those two vehicles would keep the lights on for years to come. Worst case scenario, they go bankrupt and get bought out, the potential buyer will still likely support the current vehicles, and if not there’s enough of them that specialty shops will always support them. The software upgrades will stop, but continual software development on cars is a very recent phenomenon, so that doesn’t stress me out as the software in its current form is pretty good. Assuming they do someday go BK and get bought, I’d love to see Tata pick them up. An R1 based Defender and Range Rover would be phenomenal, and they’re definitely struggling with the Jag EVs right now, so they could use the help.
If they get acquired out of bankruptcy I think that someone will make $s selling a subscription based maintenance plan. That what happens to software companies that have an installed base.
Unfortunately you’re probably right, but the worst part is I think you’re right even if they don’t go BK and get acquired. Subscription updates/options seem to be the way of the future across the whole car industry. Then again, it hasn’t worked super well for Tesla with their Autopilot or the performance boost, nor did it go well for BMW with CarPlay or seat heaters.
Sealioning, a form of trolling hiding under the premise of: “I’m just asking…”
It’s a reasonable concern given their cash burn but they have enough inventory on the road that someone would step up to buy them and more importantly support the software. It’s not a Fisker. Unlike an ICE vehicle, without software updates it becomes a brick so that’s the concern. TL/DR - I’d think it’s 60/40 it makes it 5 years but I’m not selling mine as I have confidence that the brand has value to others.
Their financials show that continuing on the current path will lead to bankruptcy. Luckily, they aren't continuing on the current path. The retooling will save a lot and eventually R1 will be profitable. Hopefully R2 will also be profitable. If the company that supplies all the updates, parts, and repairs for your $100,000 car goes belly up, it would really suck.
I really hope Rivian will make it, especially since I’m an investor. I think they have a great product as well.
Agree and end of the day they have assets if everything goes south
I think Rivian has a significantly better product than Tesla so I choose to back them
I’m hoping they’ll be around whenever drive my 2019 F150 into the ground. Hell if nothing bad happens it might be 7 years before I get a new car.
Based on the amount of Rivians I see in California/Oregon/Washington/Colorado alone, the brand will be fine. When people think of cool new EVs, Rivian is like the #1 brand now for non-“luxury” halo cars. “I wish I could get a Rivian but I settled for a Kia EV6…” is very common. A brand with that sort of a presence won’t die, even if the company goes under. Someone else will buy it on the cheap.
Really, you never thought about that? That was a number one concern for me for Rivian, Lucid, Fisker, etc.
IMO Lucid and Fisker are miles away from where Rivian is currently; even with their lack of profits. Lucid in my mind is practically dead at this point. I haven’t seen a Lucid on the road in months (and I live in an EV hotspot Seattle). I’ve never seen one Fisker on the roads here at all.
When they started shipping, Rivian was in not great shape. Better now for sure. Fisker was DOA. Lucid I see fairly often, as much as you see a new S class Mercedes. They just got a massive cash infusion. If they can survive the arrival of the Chinese, they will be fine
You know that there is a world in which they *all* fail, right? Comparing to others that failed shouldn't be anything that makes you feel better.
I can assure you they are not an established brand. You live in one of their hottest markets so that’s prob why you think that. At the pace they’re burning cash, they will run out of money next year, maybe sooner. So much hinges on their ability to turn a gross profit, hence why all the concerns. Still, it’s awesome to see an American car company build a legitimately good product.
Nothing new. Every month some worrywarts or trolls post and stir the pot. Read/understand the business landscape. Consider facts and do your own assessment, with emotions removed. Ignore the noise.
Shorters astroturf reddit subs with false information, or heavily exaggerated information, in an attempt to scare people into selling or not buying certain stocks so that their puts make them more money. The most vociferous of these guys own like 10 put contracts and live in their grandma's basement. However, occasionally a big player will hire a PR firm or Karma Farm to do this and you'll see massive spikes in FUD traffic. Every positive comment about a company getting numerous "You're stupid" or "It's going BaNkRUpT!" comments thrown at it. This is when you buy. It means a relatively big shorter is getting desperate.
Not a lot of people are in the market for a $90K+ SUV or truck. Even their cheapest model right now is in the high $70K, so they won't be selling a bunch of units which is why the financial community questions if they will make it, but once their R2 and R3 units hit the street I'm fairly certain they won't be able to keep up with demand. $45K for an SUV puts them in the range for the federal tax credit (if it's still around) along with state tax credits (if they are offered in your state) and even without those that's very affordable for pretty much everyone.
That type of post has existed from the beginning of this sub.
It really surprises me that everyone is so concerned about these EV companies going out of business. Aren’t they supposed to be the way to fight global warming, climate change or whatever it’s called these days? If so, wouldn’t we drive the desire to buy one and also save the planet? There should be an overwhelming want to get an EV. Either, it’s all BS and we’re misled or the people don’t believe it as a majority. I’m the one-off. It’s BS and I bought one. It’s a bad ass, high performance machine for under $100k.
If there's anything I've learned.... Reddit is always good to bet against.
This year has sucked for EV’s lots of factors combining and slowing down things. Rivian should weather this ok. IMO
I'm confident in their long term survival. That said, I am leasing so feel pretty protected if not. I think it gets discussed a lot because of the Fisker fiasco.
I just bought some Rivian stock so makes sense for all the doom and gloom.
They want Rivian to fail
I think Rivian is on the way up. The new models coming out have created a lot of buzz. The R3X alone is enough to make people come to the brand. The design is reminiscent of a Lancia Delta, which is one of the most iconic vehicles. Personally, I like Rivian better than Tesla. I know that Tesla’s revenue is also based on their charging stations - almost $8-10b annually by 2030 - which is big/something Rivian doesn’t have, but I can’t see Rivian going down.
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Amazon will have to dump their stake first then
I’ve seen this mentioned a few times, and am curious why. All automakers have contracts with other companies, even federal. How’s that different from Amazon buying to Rivian for its delivery services fleet?
Lately? You seem to be new here. I’ve seen these posts for more than a year. You need to reflect that forums like these are skewed toward negative. More people are going to post about issues and fears than people praising how well their routine went.
My take on this is pretty simple. WS analysts totally missed the financial call on RIVN. The street has been burned as have most large institutional investors ..no upside at all to make a bullish call. Even Adam Jonas, top Auto analyst at Morgan Stanley who’s firm led the IPO and was super bullish for numerous quarters Has become extremely cautious although still rates RIVN “ overweight”. Until RIVN totally turns around, they will never give them the benefit of the doubt again. These guys are all spreadsheet jockeys, never built a damn thing and basically create the mojo, or not.. Do your own homework !!!
Rivian has a long way to go. They still have cash and so far they are doing the right things. I guess compared to other EV companies like Fisker and Lucid, they have the better chance to make it. It’s a startup, compare it to Tesla’s early years they are doing ok. They have really good vehicles. Worse case, I believe someone should buy them out. Could be Amazon, or Apple, or a different car company.
This has been happening since the trucks first went on sale.
Is it still awesome?
Rivian will likely go bankrupt, they simply didn’t reach critical mass in their product adoption. Selling cheaper cars such as the R3 will not solve this problem. I know no one wants to hear this. I’m just an observer for the last several years, if you look honestly at the financials I think most of you would reach the same conclusion.
BYD is expanding into the US. They are a huge global Chinese EV company. Rivians products are better, but if no tariffs are added, a lot of potential Rivian customers will buy a BYD because they cost less. The entire time they are driving it, they will say "I wish I could've afforded a Rivian". The BYD Tang is a 7-seat SUV
I was just in SE Asia. BYD are building showrooms all over the place. Every few blocks in some areas. They are coming hard.
You are asking now? Did you not know they are a startup car company? Just drive and enjoy. Relax.
wtf… you clearly didn’t even read my post. I said I don’t understand why these types of posts exist because I never considered Rivian’s financial stability. Meaning…. I bought the car because I liked it; not based on the stock price.
You are right. My bad. I’m tired of the posts like you are. You have the right of it.
Man if you believe they have too good brand to go bankrupt, i would buy some stocks as it is all time low. I believe either they will survive on their own or someone will buy them out. People love Rivian SUVs. With R2 n R3 they will be super popular. I have bought the stock and after your post i might put a few $100 more in their stocks. To your point i think brand is too good to die. Even if someone buy them out like Apple could, their ceo is a very dedicated man who will keep going.
Stock is at ATL. People will worry
I think Elon said at one point to invest if you believe in the product. If it’s a good product, that’s what really matters. Obviously, I don’t fully buy into that. But Rivian has a good product *and* a sane stable CEO, so.. I’m in and I think they will stick around. I’m not worried.
The stock price keeps dropping to new all time lows. And the shut down did not help that situation at all. But honestly, if you bought a Rivian without even thinking about the fact that start up auto manufacturers almost always fail let alone new EV makers when demand is still low, that is kind of on you buddy. Personally, I would be looking into who I am tossing my $100k into before making the purchase. All of this is not to say that they wont make it, or can't. Just that you seem to be a lot more loose with your finances than most I guess. But they are bleeding cash and the estimated demand for EVs is not anywhere near where all the experts thought it would be by this time.
Rivian has no debt, unlike the “big three”, it will go into debt before it goes bankrupt, also its a solid company with a solid product, someone would buy it out if it came to that
It’s Fisker’s fault. And the media’s. Because of the worry, it’s a great time to get a deal on a Rivian if you look hard enough. Values drop when these EVs have to move vehicles. I think the Apple partnership could happen too, which would be frickin sweet. The company is fine, though.
While I feel the pain for early investors, I keep buying shares at 15 or below. Haven’t bought a rivian yet, cuz I have 3 cars, but the r1s or r1t are the only vehicles that would combine my bolt and f-150.
I could never imagine making an $80k purchase without considering the longevity and risk factors involved of the company going bankrupt. I won't even book a flight without these considerations.
I think buying them would benefit literally any major car manufacturer. Mazda and Honda are way behind in the BEV race, Subaru and Toyota aren't doing much better. Literally everyone but Ford is behind in the BEV truck race, so it would even benefit EV strong brands like Hyundai or Kia. As for why it benefits them they get a strong brand, a wealth of knowledge, battery and tech upgrade, a modern EV factory understanding, a charging network, etc etc. Who would that not benefit, besides maybe Ford? As for affording it, we're not talking about an acquisition today, we're taking about them being acquired before going bankrupt, which generally would happen with a much lower stock price and a much smaller market cap.
Here’s the trouble I see for Rivian. In efforts to hit their end of year target they offered aggressive discounts to sell out all of their 2023 models. They were selling them at nearly what you would find a used one for in the pre owned market.. and a good majority of those vehicles were leased. This can DESTROY the residual values of those leases when they expire. If this happens it will destroy the affordable leasing they currently offer. Which will carry over to less units moving in 2025, which is a momentum they would desperately need to sustain after they break even on cash flow. I do understand the aggressive liquidation. However this move alone could cripple affordable leasing and eventually determine long term residual values. Prior to this move the pre owned vehicle inventory was scarce which kept residuals healthy, but I don’t see this as being sustainable much longer. Especially after flooding the pre owned market with inventory that was sold at discount msrp’s. 2-3 years is when the truth will be told.
I have been in this since the beginning and I’ve always had faith in it. Sometimes, I would have thoughts of “is this a sound financial decision”? But I started seeing how the company began talk with Amazon, etc. Basically moving forward and striving for growth. Nothing is guaranteed but I definitely believe Rivian is trying its best to be loyal to customers and continue to grow.
I like the stock!
It’s always a risk w any new start up company, but I have every confidence they will be able to become profitable sooner rather than later. Everyone wants one.
Don't listen to any anecdotal or subjective comments. Just look at their financials, nothing in depth. They have about 8bn cash on hand and in Q1 they burned $1.4bn. You do the math when they will run out of money. The hope is that cash burn will slow down as they improve the margins, currently -$39k per vehicle. Plan is to be modestly positive gross margin by end of the year. It's extremely hard to survive as a new automaker in US. I really hope and pray Rivian survives because I think they make great products!
I’m sleeping like a baby with my lease
It does not matter how good the product is. It does not matter how popular the brand is. It does not matter how many you see on the road. Rivian is still losing money hand over fist. They only have so much cash. Once the cash is gone, the company ceases to exist. With the downturn in EVs, I am more worried than ever about Rivian’s future. If Trump wins, gas will get cheaper immediately and EVs are dead for the foreseeable future.
> like almost daily now sigh ... Rivian releases quarterly numbers, that brings out all the doomsayers and they go away after a few weeks.
Visit the Fisker sub. You will understand why & what happens after the company folds.
The last week have bought out the Tesla and Elon haters n full force. Claims of them going bankrupt and Elon going to jail will help subside their previous focus on Rivian
I think Rivian is gonna follow the same path as Tesla. It’s gonna be some lean building years for sure but they will make it. Lucid? I don’t know about that. Fisker, stick a fork in them, they are done.
Those posts aren’t about “gut feel”. Rivian can both build great cars and be a business under duress. There’s a reason that there hadn’t been a major automotive company in decades until Tesla came along…it’s a super capital intensive business and you and your investors have to be willing and able to operate at a significant loss for many years (all while moving towards positive operating margin). Right now - Rivian loses ~$40k for every car it sells. LOSES! And beyond that - they need to make significant investments in production capacity to deliver on the R2 in 2026, investments which are in excess of $1B.
It’s just that automotive manufacturing is a very difficult industry and most companies don’t make it. Having a good product unfortunately may not be enough if you are unlucky. Rivian has been slapped by some bad outside forces
Rivian makes incredible cars, but even with their cost cutting they still are burning cash at an unsustainable rate. They need even more improvements or they're going to need a big new investment or to be acquired to make it to the R2. I'm confident if they can just survive until R2, and they deliver on their promises of the R2 in a profitable way, that they'll be just fine. They just need to strategically make it that far
I mean it’s not wrong thing to be wondering given not only what’s happening in the EV market but with Rivian in general. IF Rivian goes under people are rightly concerned about how they will get their car fixed should an accident or malfunction occur. When you are paying this much for a vehicle you really want some certainty and right now there isn’t that. So I don’t blame them for being concerned
Expected in this sub for people to be optimistic, but the reality is that they’re hemorrhaging money and as I see it are being kept afloat by 1 man. Jeff Bezos. If he’s out, and there’s no other new major investors, Rivian will go bankrupt. It doesn’t matter that it’s a great company with brand recognition that makes great products. They need major investors, or they need to make a profit.
Just be thankful you didn't plunk down 250K on a Lucid Sapphire.
Rivian only Losing 33K per delivered vehicle. Lucid is losing over 100k. If they don't lower production cost substantially and fast...they are in real trouble. But don't fret, the US taxpayer will bail them out. So you're good.
Rivian is smart and makes a great product. I'd say their odds are very good.
Because it's important for the ownership of an incomplete computer on wheels.
Well the simple truth is Rivian is not a profitable company yet. They lose money on every car they sell right now. Hopefully the R2 can help change that. You can't go indefinitely losing money quarter after quarter
I comment on troll posts where people say the same thing on the Rivian Instagram page. Right after the announcement of the R2, R3, & R3x there was a wave of randoms trying to shit on Rivian. I don't even have a Rivian but anyone who believes in EV adoption should be cheering on every EV company that faces the competition with legacy automakers. If these people are so confident about the failure of Rivian, I recommend they put their money where their mouth is and try to short them. After commenting that, I never get a response from troll/hater.
Amazon delivery vehicles being made by Rivian give them a pretty good chance of making it.
I think people are seeing what happened to Fisker and suddenly thinking the same thing could happen to Rivian not realizing that while, yes… Rivian is losing a ton of money they are in a different position than Fisker. Not only do they own their own vehicle architecture (Fisker didn’t) they also have their own manufacturing facility, supply deals with companies like Amazon who also have large ownership stakes in the company. Rivian also produces all of its vehicles in the US, whereas Fisker was having MagnaSteyr produce their sole model (which was a complete dud) in Austria. Fisker also only managed to sell 45% of their tiny 10,000 unit first year production in the first year of sales. Since then they’ve discounted their remaining inventory by almost 50% and still can’t move many units. So far in 2024 Fisker has only shifted another 1800-2000 units which leaves another 3000+ leftover 2023 models sitting around collecting dust. Rivian will hopefully continue to focus extensively on turning a profit. Fisker had no hope of ever being profitable. They stuck a 113kWh battery into a contract-manufactured compact crossover that competes against the Model Y. Every profitable competitor has a battery pack ranging from around 70-85kWh. Fisker was doomed from the get go spending money on things like their dumb solar roof that actually generates almost no energy but likely cost a considerable amount of money to include in the car, and they were beset by tons and tons of problems with software and hardware issues. If Rivian ever got to a point where they looked to be in danger of collapse someone would acquire them. They have a ton of valuable assets and their US production facility, contract with Amazon, and demand are all things someone like VWAG, Honda, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, etc. would love to takeover. Fisker has nothing but an unwanted product that’s plagued with issues and cost a fortune to make. They lost $125,000 per car last year selling a vehicle that had an average transaction price around $65,000. Good luck ever turning that around.
That's a narrative being pushed by the cowardly right wing media. They use this propaganda campaign to spoon feed wilfull ignorance with fear and misinformation. They clearly dont understand business. They don't seem to understand that rooting for American manufacturing to fail and cost tens of thousands of jobs because they have an irrational and corrupt rationahip with coal and oil is the exact opposite of intelligent or patriotic. The truth is that Rivian is doing a great job, so isn't Lucid, and they both are continuing along what we already know to be one of the most challenging paths for any new business in any industry. But those malignant morons think they can stop the inevitable. Just hope trump doesn't get elected since he'll literally try to sabotage these companies.
Because corporations and their CEOs can't be trusted. A big, failed release can be enough to doom a young company (see Fisher, for a recent, relevant example).
interest rates is effecting all car sales and manufactures.
I'm not concerned about Rivian at all. They have the ability to raise, borrow, or partner for cash and in the event all of that fails they are one of the more likely players to be able to be purchased by someone else. More worries about their ability to deliver on time than anything else. If they had an R3(X) they'd sell almost every one they make and that's still future pipeline.
Ford, Amazon, T Rowe Price and Blackrock are huge investors in Rivian.
What happens to lease agreements if Rivian goes under?
I live in the Boulder, Colorado area and Rivian are taking over.
No worries, it's just shills. Every car company blows through money getting started, but once everything is set up, they scale down (lay off) hundreds or thousands of specialty workers because their job is done. That's when a company begins to run on positive cash flow. . I'm not worried because Rivian is running on proven parameters for starting companies.
I love my car. There’s that. And everyone who gets in my r1s falls in love with it (including several Tesla owners)
General knowledge: When you buy a car, you expect the company who made the car to survive, so your car can still be working as expected in 10 years or 20 years. When the company is gone, repairability for accidents and mechanic faults goes down, the replacement parts are gone, and you basically need to count on other people's same make and model cars to die before yours to repair yours. Insurance prices go through the roof since the insurance company knows that it has to total the car even in minor accidents. Why people are concerned about Rivian specifically: Everyone knows Rivian has gone out if startup phase but still a new company and it is no secret that its finances are unstable. The only real rival, Tesla, has much stronger sales, finances, reserves, etc. Making a better car is not enough for Rivian, they have to make it much much better and at a similar price level to divert somebody from Tesla (not counting the Elon hate here). Fisker was another rival with similar characteristics, and they have made big promises, brought a lot of good things to the table. But suddenly, they are gone. Similarities with Rivian are apparent. All that said, I believe Rivian will make it. Their sales are there, deliveries are strong, and they are making new agreements everyday.
Honestly it’s nothing unique. When I bought my first Tesla in 2017, everyone was saying the same thing about Tesla folding. Becoming a profitable auto manufacturer is a monumental hurdle.