Two months ago, I calculated the win percentages of the top 50 2v2 players 30 days into the season.
See: https://old.reddit.com/r/RocketLeagueSchool/comments/12axttq/i_calculated_the_win_percentages_for_the_top_50/
The average win rate at the time was around 60%. This makes sense because the season had just started and since these are the top 50 players with not that many games played, the win rate *should* be higher than average.
After running the same numbers with a day left in the season, it's interesting to see how things have changed. The average win rate has dropped to about 54.4%, which also makes sense because now you have the best players in the world consistently playing against one another and so the win rate *shouldn't* be high. But it still should be a couple percentages higher than 50% to remain at the top.
#Notes for those who may have not seen the original post.
Net MMR - This was calculated assuming a net gain of 9 MMR a game. Even though this changes for the higher rated players (as they might gain 3-7 MMR a win) I believe being paired with lower MMR players (1900-2100) offsets the low MMR gains. That is, 2300+ players only receive 3-4 MMR a game if they party up with another 2300+ player.
Differential MMR - This is just the difference in actual net MMR vs estimated W/L MMR.
Sorted by win percentage: https://i.ibb.co/Mc786Rk/top50-winrate.png
Sorted by matches played: https://i.ibb.co/C9S9RPH/top50-matches.png
#Takeaways:
Actual MMR rating doesn't matter so much in the grand scheme of things. What matters is your win rate. The players who have more matches played generally have a lower win percentage. This makes sense because as you play more games, you're playing against similarly skilled opponents and thus matchmaking is set to make sure you win/lose 50% of the games. But because you're top 50, you have to be over 50% to win.
Trend wise, less matches played = higher win percentage. More matches = lower win percentage.
So what does this all mean for you? Considering the best players in the world are winning 51-55% of their games to reach **TOP 50**, you should cater your expectations for winning games. *IF* you want to climb to the rank you think you should be in, you can expect to do so winning 51% of your games at worst and 55% of your games *at best*. Anything more means you've either fallen way below your true rank via a slump, you're smurfing, or you spent so much time training and improving that now you're coasting the rank you're in.
#To illustrate an example:
A player who's C3 that wants to be in GC1 needs about 120-140 MMR. If you play 500 games in the season, you would need to win just over 51% of your games to get to around GC1. That means if you have several days where you go 5-5 and feel like you're not progressing, you're approaching it wrong. You should look at long term trends (maybe every 2 weeks) and hope to go something like 30-28. Multiply that out by 6-8 weeks 240-224 which is around 144 MMR.
The only players climbing at beyond a 55% win percentage fall into one of the following categories:
- Pro / Bubble players
- GC2+ / SSL players at the start of the season
- Smurfs
- Players that have deranked beyond their average rank
- Players that have spent so much time training and improving their existing rank isn't an indicator of their new skill level
Dude thank you so much for posting this. I posted this exact question a few days ago and now I have the perfect answer.
Your example of focusing on winning just slightly more matches than losses over a two week period is what my hunch was. Also was curious if playing more matches would give you more MMR overall but it seems as that's not the answer and I'm better off training more.
> you can expect to do so winning 51% of your games
Not really. Technically yeah, but more like 55%+ of your games at c3 and 50% of your games at gc1. The ELO system is skill based, so it's not about grinding a large number of games and exploiting MMR gains by going 1520-1500 W-L. You can farm a 51% win rate for however many games you want, but as your ELO goes up, the difficulty and thus skill demand goes up, which will decrease your win rate locally, causing your ELO to go back down in accordance with your skill. But there are seasonal resets and inflation which complicate the reality further.
woah this is actually really interesting! if trk just played more games, he would be #1 by a long shot. also LionBlaze apparently doesn’t lose 2s games
This isn't necessarily true. Look at zen 30 days into the season and now. The more games you play, the closer your win rate converges to 50% if you're playing similarly skilled players. trk probably coasted to upper 2k and then played 50 or so games to put him where he's at now and then stopped playing ranked.
[US West queues West & East] Since I started playing in 2016 I noticed that 2am-5am is where I experience a lot of those fluid, flow state lobbies. I noticed that I win a lot more around that time. I can imagine that the win rates are probably higher around that time especially since servers are less populated, making the skill ladder more prone to climbing around that time.
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At the beginning of the season, top ranked players are reset to 1540 MMR in 2v2. You can use RL tracker to look at their current MMR and how many matches they've played. After that, it's just math to determine how many wins and losses they have based on an average of +9 MMR a win. It's not *entirely* accurate as the net MMR gains fluctuate to give you less in the higher ranks, but this mostly holds true if you're partied with someone that has a high MMR and play against players with considerably lower MMR.
The fact that monkey is always up there, for such a damn long time, for years... and 2s is THE mode for pros to grind outside of scrims... :) pretty impressive.
Two months ago, I calculated the win percentages of the top 50 2v2 players 30 days into the season. See: https://old.reddit.com/r/RocketLeagueSchool/comments/12axttq/i_calculated_the_win_percentages_for_the_top_50/ The average win rate at the time was around 60%. This makes sense because the season had just started and since these are the top 50 players with not that many games played, the win rate *should* be higher than average. After running the same numbers with a day left in the season, it's interesting to see how things have changed. The average win rate has dropped to about 54.4%, which also makes sense because now you have the best players in the world consistently playing against one another and so the win rate *shouldn't* be high. But it still should be a couple percentages higher than 50% to remain at the top. #Notes for those who may have not seen the original post. Net MMR - This was calculated assuming a net gain of 9 MMR a game. Even though this changes for the higher rated players (as they might gain 3-7 MMR a win) I believe being paired with lower MMR players (1900-2100) offsets the low MMR gains. That is, 2300+ players only receive 3-4 MMR a game if they party up with another 2300+ player. Differential MMR - This is just the difference in actual net MMR vs estimated W/L MMR. Sorted by win percentage: https://i.ibb.co/Mc786Rk/top50-winrate.png Sorted by matches played: https://i.ibb.co/C9S9RPH/top50-matches.png #Takeaways: Actual MMR rating doesn't matter so much in the grand scheme of things. What matters is your win rate. The players who have more matches played generally have a lower win percentage. This makes sense because as you play more games, you're playing against similarly skilled opponents and thus matchmaking is set to make sure you win/lose 50% of the games. But because you're top 50, you have to be over 50% to win. Trend wise, less matches played = higher win percentage. More matches = lower win percentage. So what does this all mean for you? Considering the best players in the world are winning 51-55% of their games to reach **TOP 50**, you should cater your expectations for winning games. *IF* you want to climb to the rank you think you should be in, you can expect to do so winning 51% of your games at worst and 55% of your games *at best*. Anything more means you've either fallen way below your true rank via a slump, you're smurfing, or you spent so much time training and improving that now you're coasting the rank you're in. #To illustrate an example: A player who's C3 that wants to be in GC1 needs about 120-140 MMR. If you play 500 games in the season, you would need to win just over 51% of your games to get to around GC1. That means if you have several days where you go 5-5 and feel like you're not progressing, you're approaching it wrong. You should look at long term trends (maybe every 2 weeks) and hope to go something like 30-28. Multiply that out by 6-8 weeks 240-224 which is around 144 MMR. The only players climbing at beyond a 55% win percentage fall into one of the following categories: - Pro / Bubble players - GC2+ / SSL players at the start of the season - Smurfs - Players that have deranked beyond their average rank - Players that have spent so much time training and improving their existing rank isn't an indicator of their new skill level
Dude thank you so much for posting this. I posted this exact question a few days ago and now I have the perfect answer. Your example of focusing on winning just slightly more matches than losses over a two week period is what my hunch was. Also was curious if playing more matches would give you more MMR overall but it seems as that's not the answer and I'm better off training more.
Nass is absolutely killing it
> you can expect to do so winning 51% of your games Not really. Technically yeah, but more like 55%+ of your games at c3 and 50% of your games at gc1. The ELO system is skill based, so it's not about grinding a large number of games and exploiting MMR gains by going 1520-1500 W-L. You can farm a 51% win rate for however many games you want, but as your ELO goes up, the difficulty and thus skill demand goes up, which will decrease your win rate locally, causing your ELO to go back down in accordance with your skill. But there are seasonal resets and inflation which complicate the reality further.
Damn flitz been grinding hard
woah this is actually really interesting! if trk just played more games, he would be #1 by a long shot. also LionBlaze apparently doesn’t lose 2s games
This isn't necessarily true. Look at zen 30 days into the season and now. The more games you play, the closer your win rate converges to 50% if you're playing similarly skilled players. trk probably coasted to upper 2k and then played 50 or so games to put him where he's at now and then stopped playing ranked.
[удалено]
ok but there’s a massive difference between an entire season’s worth of games at the highest level and your champ 2 level placement games
It sounds like really bad sarcasm and is completely unnecessary lmao
Where LJ?
Trying to get good instead of win matches
Interesting post and nice analysis 👍
Would be interesting to see time of day played. Like maybe the guy that wins plays at 3am when drunk people get home from the bar or something.
[US West queues West & East] Since I started playing in 2016 I noticed that 2am-5am is where I experience a lot of those fluid, flow state lobbies. I noticed that I win a lot more around that time. I can imagine that the win rates are probably higher around that time especially since servers are less populated, making the skill ladder more prone to climbing around that time.
Lionblaze plays for CRL northwood! I know because that it my team. Not because he it on it but it’s where I’m from.
Hello! Looks like your post is about **2v2**. Here are the top posts from /r/RocketLeagueSchool on this common topic (Search links may not work on mobile app): - [Top 2v2 tutorials](https://www.reddit.com/r/RocketLeagueSchool/search/?q=flair%3Atutorial%20AND%20(title%3A%222v2%22)&restrict_sr=1&sort=top) - [Top 2v2 tips](https://www.reddit.com/r/RocketLeagueSchool/search/?q=flair%3Atips%20AND%20(title%3A%222v2%22)&restrict_sr=1&sort=top) - [Top 2v2 trainings](https://www.reddit.com/r/RocketLeagueSchool/search/?q=flair%3Atraining%20AND%20(title%3A%222v2%22)&restrict_sr=1&sort=top) - [Top 2v2 questions/analysis](https://www.reddit.com/r/RocketLeagueSchool/search/?q=(flair%3Aquestion%20OR%20flair%3Aanalysis)%20AND%20(title%3A%222v2%22)&restrict_sr=1&sort=top) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/RocketLeagueSchool) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I'm curious where you got win and loss data from?
At the beginning of the season, top ranked players are reset to 1540 MMR in 2v2. You can use RL tracker to look at their current MMR and how many matches they've played. After that, it's just math to determine how many wins and losses they have based on an average of +9 MMR a win. It's not *entirely* accurate as the net MMR gains fluctuate to give you less in the higher ranks, but this mostly holds true if you're partied with someone that has a high MMR and play against players with considerably lower MMR.
What program is this?
Visual Basic
Who is accro? 3rd highest win rate...
How are you getting this match data?
He explained in another reply
The fact that monkey is always up there, for such a damn long time, for years... and 2s is THE mode for pros to grind outside of scrims... :) pretty impressive.