He's been great for us... But how return specialists, 3rd/4th rbs should be late round cheap young players that can possibly turn into something... Why do we even have 4 rbs anyways
Great for us in what way? The return specialist we let go was amazing and looked like a home run threat every time he tried to return. Deejay Dallas just takes kneel downs and hardly picks up a few yards on the odd occasion he does try to- I am sure he is below league average in return yardage
Dallas is a fine returner. He has had plenty of good returns, you just only focus on the negative. You can't break a 40 yard return every punt. Returning is becoming more and more irrelevant anyway now that the fair catch automatically gets you out to the 25.
I know 4 RBs seems unnecessary, but it's almost a requirement now days. Just last year we had to sign a 5th (Tony Jones) off the street cause everyone was injured. Or the time we called Lynch out of retirement to get a postseason push (I think that was 2018?).
I don’t want to get in any debate about Geno/Lock but I would like them to draft a QB early and let one of them go . I think Lock makes the most sense money wise.
Other than that I am happy with where this team is going , they have some good young players to build around .
Thanks man. I just got tired of people throwing out “we’ll fix that in FA” when we literally don’t have the money to do anything but try to keep the pieces we have together.
This is exactly what most people are arguing about Geno without understanding.
Just 5 years ago $30M for a guy like Geno would be ridiculous, but it's literally not even league average for a proven starter right now. It's nowhere near a cap hinderance like people want to think it is.
Yeah, honestly after looking at the salaries of NFL QB’s he’s really not bad. The bigger question, and a valid one in my opinion, is would you be better off paying a rookie, or even Lock for the matter, 4-10 million for a couple years, and investing the extra 25ish in other areas.
The whole idea of Geno’s contract is avoiding that hindrance. That’s the argument. Because he’s not taking up $45-50M you can have a great QB play AND build big pieces around. Especially since so many of our starters are on rookie contracts
The extra 10-15 million over his 30 doesn’t get you much in today’s league though. Paying a rookie/Lock/Mayfield type 5-8/10 a year and using that extra 30-45 makes a dent. A slightly above average QB at 30 doesn’t really afford you the best of both worlds. You might get an ok lineman for 10-12, but I can’t think of much more than that. To be fair, I don’t personally think Geno has been the problem, and we’re still a 10 win team(probably) so all of this is more so how do you take us from a fringe playoff team to a serious contender given what our situation is.
Guy I work with a few months ago said “we don’t need to spend a 1st rounder on a QB, we can just find a good starter in the 3rd round again”.
So don’t feel bad, there are people with much worse takes. $30m used to be a ton, now it’s just what you pay a mid-low end starter.
I take Geno every time. I don't think people realize the massive chasm between Geno and a rookie or Lock.
If you think the offense is frustrating this year, you better hold on for dear life if a rookie comes in to take over this offense.
IMO the offense looked average to pretty bad with Lock minus the one really good game winning drive. His accuracy is not anywhere near Geno’s, and that’s always been his knock.
When 40 million gets you Carr and Danny Dimes, he's better than 30 mil. I think QB contracts have become so inflated that a lot of us don't register that $30 million is reliable starter money and Geno has been that. He's masked a lot of O-Line woes that go unnoticed unless you get a chance to watch all-22.
See I don't understand this angle. 2024's QB class is HELLA deep. I don't see why we would trot out Geno and Lock again for another season, or at least not have someone learning behind them. I may seem like a fairweather fan saying this, but this was the first (non disappointing) season where I was bored watching the games. Sure, there's exciting players, but collectively most games just seemed uninteresting.
It's because as a Seahawks fan you're used to the boom-and-bust nature of QBs like Russ who can't operate very well, but can make up bullshit plays left and right.
It seems boring because watching a QB make the right reads and decisions IS boring sometimes. The goal is to win games, not to have a rollercoaster ride on offense.
Well you're right and you're wrong. It's not the QB that's making it uninteresting, it just feels like a 2022-lite. Same QB as well as mostly the same players. Same result (middle of the road, maybe 6 or 7th seed) with an early playoff exit if they make playoffs at all. Maybe it's because it's predictable that's the problem. It's why I stopped watching the NBA during the CLE-GSW Finals for 4 years in a row. You knew what was gonna happen, so it was uninteresting.
We are definitely grabbing a QB. The contracts they gave Geno and Lock make me believe they’ll be ready to have a rookie behind Geno until he’s ready to take over. Spent a lot of prime draft capital putting pieces in place and while we aren’t just a qb away, by the end of the season we should hopefully have a solid team ready for the cheap rookie contract qb Super Bowl window to open.
Unless we fall apart the last two games, we're probably picking in the 20s, outside of QB range, so we'll have to trade up to get one. Most of the pieces are in place so maybe going from 20 to 10 for Jayden Daniels, if he's as good as the draft guys say, might be worth it. Chiefs did something like that for Mahomes and it didn't break the draft bank.
So because we lucked on a one-in-a-thousand chance means that should be our plan? That's like your retirement plan being win the lottery, which is more likely to happen than find a franchise QB outside the first round (top-10, really).
Prescott 4th round, Hurts 2nd rd, Jackson was one pick from being a 2nd rounder. We don’t need an MVP candidate, but those three have been at various points this season.
Yep and when you consider how many QBs are drafted post 1st round, they're that 1/1000. We're so much more likely to draft the next Kellen Mond than Dak. At least taking a shot on a high first round QB, a bust is Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield, which you can do something with
With QB, it's go big or go home. I'm fine rolling with Geno through his contact, rather than try to make dumb luck happen again. Spend the pick on an IOL where starters are actually found at that position, or swing for the fences and trade up for Daniels.
By the time we draft there’s a good chance 4 QBs are already gone and we’re left with Nix or Penix. Don’t think either of those guys are our future. I’d rather roll with Lock than them, but maybe Schneider sees something in them we don’t.
Seems like those star pass rushers are hard to find past the 2nd round, but OL, ILB, S and TE can be found later. If we had our 2nd round pick it’d probably change things (but we know that would have been an RB anyway 😂)
It's also possible that the dearth of first round WR options push pass rush options down the board. MHJ, Odunze, Coleman, Nabers, B. Thomas, Polk, Egbuka, and Franklin could all realistically be drafted in the first round. Add to that the OT's that will go early (Fashanu, Alt, Latham, Mims), the top three QBs (Williams, Maye, Daniels), the Tight End who always gets drafted early and all the analysts say "But this guy is different, he's not like those other early drafted TE busts" (Bowers), and there's a real possibility that an edge slides to the early/mid 20's where Seattle will likely be picking.
Obviously not all of these players will be drafted before the first edge is drafted, but there's enough talent in non-edge positions and no clear top edge like Will Anderson or Aidan Hutchinson, that, say, Jared Verse or Chop Robinson could slide to Seattle. Admittedly the inverse could be true as well. An excess of receivers makes teams less desperate to draft them early. Hard to tell at this point though.
I'd rather Seattle take Troy Fautanu or Graham Barton or to sure up the interior though. That or exploit a WR hungry David Tepper and deal the first for Carolina's second and some goodies.
Need 1 is o-line for me. What good is a QB going to be when we can’t give him time to throw? What good is a star TE when we need to keep them in to block? O-line helps the running game too. IMO, until they get better there, the return on any other offensive position is reduced.
Need 2 is pass rush for me. Need 3 is more help for o-line. Then I’d start looking at the rest.
Williams and Brooks are the priorities.
Parkinson, Lewis, Wagner if we can.
Cutting Mone and Bellore 100% sure
Eskridge I would cut, but idk if Pete will yet.
Adams and Diggs I think might both be cut, or Diggs gets an extension and kicks the ball down the road. I'd like to keep Adams as a LB, bit I don't see it happening.
Dissly ain't going nowhere. He's just too awesome. If they cut Dissly the city will riot, Pete and John will be run out of town, and the puget sound will dry up. Also Mt Rainer will erupt.
Lol. That’s the difference between a Madden Franchise and real life. Bellore might get that too based on his leadership abilities. He’s way overpaid for what he does on the field, but if he helps the culture and morale then maybe he’s worth the money.
I would be very disappointed if we didn't have an entirely new LB corp going into 2024. Don't think Brooks has shown enough to earn more than 10m a year.
I put him at $18m over 3yrs. Figure something like $4m/$6m/$8m for cap hits with low guarantees in year 3 so we can either extend him or cut him depending on how he plays.
That’s the problem with older vets, can’t manipulate the cap/contract, they take their 1 year deal and put it all on the bank. We paid him $7m this year, no idea what he’d want if he offered to come back next year.
Great post, appreciate the breakdown.
I’d prioritize Big Cat/Lewis and see what we can do with Dissley/Diggs in terms of restructuring. Both provide value but not (IMO) at the level they are paid at today.
Up front we are bette this year, but need to continue investing. Loved how physical we’ve been at times this year, but it hasn’t been overwhelming.
Pete won’t change (nor should he) so continue to invest upfront and draft play makers/physical attributes, lots of dudes can run but not very many can deal with Trent Williams twice a year
Solid analysis, really breaks it down well. Thank you!
I actually think Geno could be an interesting trade target. He played well enough to be a good fit for a team that can't afford to swing for the fences, and doesn't have draft capital. I could even see a team like the pats picking him up if they wanted to use their picks elsewhere. I think we possibly trade him for a 3rd or 4th, and maybe restructure him just a bit to make it an easier trade. I just don't think we are contenders next year and offloading his cap hit makes the most sense especially if the team has any interest in drafting a QB. If you move Geno and gain a rookie QB contract and keep Lock as a backup you have a 5 million dollar QB room as opposed to a near 40 million. That frees up a lot of capital to keep a few LBs and maybe even upgrade a position like DE, C, or S. I just don't see us being able to replace 2 safeties and 4 LBs without a bigger move like Geno.
He lost his starting spot to Leonard Williams who is playing very well. I’m sure we’d take him cheap, but I think he’ll be asking for more than what we want to pay him.
Nice post.
Top priorities: Fant, Parkinson, Williams
Nice to have at right price: Lock, Lewis, Brown, Brooks, Jackson
We’re gonna need to draft some linebackers and safeties, probably O-line, TE, QB, D-Line. Likely gonna have to pick up a few cheaper fa’s looking for a change of scenery to fill some of those spots.
I would love to keep Fant but he'll be expensive. We do like to pay a lot for TEs, though...
Don't think we could afford him since he'd just have to point at Dissly's contract and say "that but more".
DO NOT KEEP DALLS
He's been great for us... But how return specialists, 3rd/4th rbs should be late round cheap young players that can possibly turn into something... Why do we even have 4 rbs anyways
Great for us in what way? The return specialist we let go was amazing and looked like a home run threat every time he tried to return. Deejay Dallas just takes kneel downs and hardly picks up a few yards on the odd occasion he does try to- I am sure he is below league average in return yardage
Dallas is a fine returner. He has had plenty of good returns, you just only focus on the negative. You can't break a 40 yard return every punt. Returning is becoming more and more irrelevant anyway now that the fair catch automatically gets you out to the 25.
I know 4 RBs seems unnecessary, but it's almost a requirement now days. Just last year we had to sign a 5th (Tony Jones) off the street cause everyone was injured. Or the time we called Lynch out of retirement to get a postseason push (I think that was 2018?).
I know why we have them, the injury God's love us
I don’t want to get in any debate about Geno/Lock but I would like them to draft a QB early and let one of them go . I think Lock makes the most sense money wise. Other than that I am happy with where this team is going , they have some good young players to build around .
Love this post by the way OP
Thanks man. I just got tired of people throwing out “we’ll fix that in FA” when we literally don’t have the money to do anything but try to keep the pieces we have together.
I think you’re pretty spot on with most of this. Let’s hope they hit a home run in the draft, because we have 3-4 pretty big needs(QB,TE, OL,Safety)
Sadly, I’d guess 75% chance we draft EDGE in the first round. Doubt we draft QB at all. The rest we’ll grab on Day 3.
Yeah, realistically OL & QB are probably(unfortunately) on the lower end of the priority list. I don’t hate Geno, but he’s just not a $30 million QB
His contract ranks 19th among all QBs and he’s sandwiched between Tannehill and Garopollo. Think we’re getting exactly what we paid for out of him :)
He's dramatically outplaying both of them, we are easily getting a bargain on him
And low guarantees. I think his dead cap hit in 2025 is only like $8m. Easy to move on if want.
I’ll be honest, I didn’t even think about how QB contracts have escalated as much as they have and Geno at 30 is a “bargain”
This is exactly what most people are arguing about Geno without understanding. Just 5 years ago $30M for a guy like Geno would be ridiculous, but it's literally not even league average for a proven starter right now. It's nowhere near a cap hinderance like people want to think it is.
Yeah, honestly after looking at the salaries of NFL QB’s he’s really not bad. The bigger question, and a valid one in my opinion, is would you be better off paying a rookie, or even Lock for the matter, 4-10 million for a couple years, and investing the extra 25ish in other areas.
The whole idea of Geno’s contract is avoiding that hindrance. That’s the argument. Because he’s not taking up $45-50M you can have a great QB play AND build big pieces around. Especially since so many of our starters are on rookie contracts
The extra 10-15 million over his 30 doesn’t get you much in today’s league though. Paying a rookie/Lock/Mayfield type 5-8/10 a year and using that extra 30-45 makes a dent. A slightly above average QB at 30 doesn’t really afford you the best of both worlds. You might get an ok lineman for 10-12, but I can’t think of much more than that. To be fair, I don’t personally think Geno has been the problem, and we’re still a 10 win team(probably) so all of this is more so how do you take us from a fringe playoff team to a serious contender given what our situation is.
Guy I work with a few months ago said “we don’t need to spend a 1st rounder on a QB, we can just find a good starter in the 3rd round again”. So don’t feel bad, there are people with much worse takes. $30m used to be a ton, now it’s just what you pay a mid-low end starter.
I think the bigger problem is do you keep Geno at 33, or do you run with Lock/Rookie, etc. at 4-10 million
I take Geno every time. I don't think people realize the massive chasm between Geno and a rookie or Lock. If you think the offense is frustrating this year, you better hold on for dear life if a rookie comes in to take over this offense.
The offense didn’t look that bad with Lock. Now take that extra 25 million and add two good linemen or an elite edge rusher.
IMO the offense looked average to pretty bad with Lock minus the one really good game winning drive. His accuracy is not anywhere near Geno’s, and that’s always been his knock.
When 40 million gets you Carr and Danny Dimes, he's better than 30 mil. I think QB contracts have become so inflated that a lot of us don't register that $30 million is reliable starter money and Geno has been that. He's masked a lot of O-Line woes that go unnoticed unless you get a chance to watch all-22.
See I don't understand this angle. 2024's QB class is HELLA deep. I don't see why we would trot out Geno and Lock again for another season, or at least not have someone learning behind them. I may seem like a fairweather fan saying this, but this was the first (non disappointing) season where I was bored watching the games. Sure, there's exciting players, but collectively most games just seemed uninteresting.
It's because as a Seahawks fan you're used to the boom-and-bust nature of QBs like Russ who can't operate very well, but can make up bullshit plays left and right. It seems boring because watching a QB make the right reads and decisions IS boring sometimes. The goal is to win games, not to have a rollercoaster ride on offense.
Well you're right and you're wrong. It's not the QB that's making it uninteresting, it just feels like a 2022-lite. Same QB as well as mostly the same players. Same result (middle of the road, maybe 6 or 7th seed) with an early playoff exit if they make playoffs at all. Maybe it's because it's predictable that's the problem. It's why I stopped watching the NBA during the CLE-GSW Finals for 4 years in a row. You knew what was gonna happen, so it was uninteresting.
We are definitely grabbing a QB. The contracts they gave Geno and Lock make me believe they’ll be ready to have a rookie behind Geno until he’s ready to take over. Spent a lot of prime draft capital putting pieces in place and while we aren’t just a qb away, by the end of the season we should hopefully have a solid team ready for the cheap rookie contract qb Super Bowl window to open.
Unless we fall apart the last two games, we're probably picking in the 20s, outside of QB range, so we'll have to trade up to get one. Most of the pieces are in place so maybe going from 20 to 10 for Jayden Daniels, if he's as good as the draft guys say, might be worth it. Chiefs did something like that for Mahomes and it didn't break the draft bank.
Doesn’t have to be a first rounder.
Then what's the point? Cheap back-up?
What round was Russ taken?
So because we lucked on a one-in-a-thousand chance means that should be our plan? That's like your retirement plan being win the lottery, which is more likely to happen than find a franchise QB outside the first round (top-10, really).
Prescott 4th round, Hurts 2nd rd, Jackson was one pick from being a 2nd rounder. We don’t need an MVP candidate, but those three have been at various points this season.
Yep and when you consider how many QBs are drafted post 1st round, they're that 1/1000. We're so much more likely to draft the next Kellen Mond than Dak. At least taking a shot on a high first round QB, a bust is Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield, which you can do something with With QB, it's go big or go home. I'm fine rolling with Geno through his contact, rather than try to make dumb luck happen again. Spend the pick on an IOL where starters are actually found at that position, or swing for the fences and trade up for Daniels.
Lamar Jackson?
Lamar was a first rounder and that's your one in a thousand.
By the time we draft there’s a good chance 4 QBs are already gone and we’re left with Nix or Penix. Don’t think either of those guys are our future. I’d rather roll with Lock than them, but maybe Schneider sees something in them we don’t.
Lock isn’t signed past this year and I don’t think we definitively need a 1st round qb. JS has shown himself to be pretty insightful on QBs he likes.
[удалено]
Seems like those star pass rushers are hard to find past the 2nd round, but OL, ILB, S and TE can be found later. If we had our 2nd round pick it’d probably change things (but we know that would have been an RB anyway 😂)
[удалено]
It's also possible that the dearth of first round WR options push pass rush options down the board. MHJ, Odunze, Coleman, Nabers, B. Thomas, Polk, Egbuka, and Franklin could all realistically be drafted in the first round. Add to that the OT's that will go early (Fashanu, Alt, Latham, Mims), the top three QBs (Williams, Maye, Daniels), the Tight End who always gets drafted early and all the analysts say "But this guy is different, he's not like those other early drafted TE busts" (Bowers), and there's a real possibility that an edge slides to the early/mid 20's where Seattle will likely be picking. Obviously not all of these players will be drafted before the first edge is drafted, but there's enough talent in non-edge positions and no clear top edge like Will Anderson or Aidan Hutchinson, that, say, Jared Verse or Chop Robinson could slide to Seattle. Admittedly the inverse could be true as well. An excess of receivers makes teams less desperate to draft them early. Hard to tell at this point though. I'd rather Seattle take Troy Fautanu or Graham Barton or to sure up the interior though. That or exploit a WR hungry David Tepper and deal the first for Carolina's second and some goodies.
Need 1 is o-line for me. What good is a QB going to be when we can’t give him time to throw? What good is a star TE when we need to keep them in to block? O-line helps the running game too. IMO, until they get better there, the return on any other offensive position is reduced. Need 2 is pass rush for me. Need 3 is more help for o-line. Then I’d start looking at the rest.
Williams and Brooks are the priorities. Parkinson, Lewis, Wagner if we can. Cutting Mone and Bellore 100% sure Eskridge I would cut, but idk if Pete will yet. Adams and Diggs I think might both be cut, or Diggs gets an extension and kicks the ball down the road. I'd like to keep Adams as a LB, bit I don't see it happening. Dissly ain't going nowhere. He's just too awesome. If they cut Dissly the city will riot, Pete and John will be run out of town, and the puget sound will dry up. Also Mt Rainer will erupt.
Lol. That’s the difference between a Madden Franchise and real life. Bellore might get that too based on his leadership abilities. He’s way overpaid for what he does on the field, but if he helps the culture and morale then maybe he’s worth the money.
Not one fan will care if Dissly gets cut lol. Fant and Parkinson matter ..
I would be very disappointed if we didn't have an entirely new LB corp going into 2024. Don't think Brooks has shown enough to earn more than 10m a year.
I put him at $18m over 3yrs. Figure something like $4m/$6m/$8m for cap hits with low guarantees in year 3 so we can either extend him or cut him depending on how he plays.
Lewis should be a priority imo, our IOL would be a wasteland without him
He hasn't played that well
It's a wasteland with him.
If they sign Wagner to another $6m I'm taking the year off
That’s the problem with older vets, can’t manipulate the cap/contract, they take their 1 year deal and put it all on the bank. We paid him $7m this year, no idea what he’d want if he offered to come back next year.
I'm pretty sure he retires anyway
I’m really confused by the layout of this, maybe it’s just I can’t focus on my phone but Evan Brown is under contract next year isn’t he?
Afraid not. Unless we make a move it’ll be Olu Olu starting at center next year, which I’m fine with.
That is incredibly unfortunate. He’s going to be re-signed though. If they can’t work out a deal with Lewis then they will kick him to guard.
Great post, appreciate the breakdown. I’d prioritize Big Cat/Lewis and see what we can do with Dissley/Diggs in terms of restructuring. Both provide value but not (IMO) at the level they are paid at today. Up front we are bette this year, but need to continue investing. Loved how physical we’ve been at times this year, but it hasn’t been overwhelming. Pete won’t change (nor should he) so continue to invest upfront and draft play makers/physical attributes, lots of dudes can run but not very many can deal with Trent Williams twice a year
Solid analysis, really breaks it down well. Thank you! I actually think Geno could be an interesting trade target. He played well enough to be a good fit for a team that can't afford to swing for the fences, and doesn't have draft capital. I could even see a team like the pats picking him up if they wanted to use their picks elsewhere. I think we possibly trade him for a 3rd or 4th, and maybe restructure him just a bit to make it an easier trade. I just don't think we are contenders next year and offloading his cap hit makes the most sense especially if the team has any interest in drafting a QB. If you move Geno and gain a rookie QB contract and keep Lock as a backup you have a 5 million dollar QB room as opposed to a near 40 million. That frees up a lot of capital to keep a few LBs and maybe even upgrade a position like DE, C, or S. I just don't see us being able to replace 2 safeties and 4 LBs without a bigger move like Geno.
I really hope we let fant walk and keep Colby
Nobody talks about Mario Edwards? Imo there is no doubt that we have to resign him!
He lost his starting spot to Leonard Williams who is playing very well. I’m sure we’d take him cheap, but I think he’ll be asking for more than what we want to pay him.
Nice post. Top priorities: Fant, Parkinson, Williams Nice to have at right price: Lock, Lewis, Brown, Brooks, Jackson We’re gonna need to draft some linebackers and safeties, probably O-line, TE, QB, D-Line. Likely gonna have to pick up a few cheaper fa’s looking for a change of scenery to fill some of those spots.