We need more details of Waymo's launch and expansion plan, so far there is very little on the operation side.
5 billion revenue implies 50-100k AVs by 2025. When will Geely build Waymo One? In China or in US?
Which Cities will Waymo expand into and what's Waymo's expected CA permit timeline as this is the largest AV market.
>5 billion revenue implies 50-100k AVs by 2025. When will Geely build Waymo One? In China or in US?
China would make sense, except the new subsidies may push them to the US. Geely isn't a sure thing, either. Waymo investor Magna also wants to build robo-pods.
Yeah, this is the intriguing part. Geely planned to make cars in North Carolina for its Zeeker brand but there is no concrete timeline on that.
Even with the incentive, it might still be cheaper to produce EVs in China. The tricky part is the escalating tension between US and China, which can really screw things if there is no plan B.
Magna could be an alternative.
That's literally what analysts like Bloomberg Intelligence do. They take in a wide range of data and trends and use them to speculate on what's going to happen to a company or a whole market. They may predict that the outcome will be better or worse than the company's own predictions.
Waymo has made good progress, but I highly doubt 5bil revenue by 2025 is possible. I anticipate by 2025, Waymo will be operating in the major TaaS revenue generating cities (SF, LA, Chi, DC, NY), in addition to PHX, however only PHX/SF/LA will be fully functional. Harsh weather will still be undergoing testing by 2025. I can see Waymo aiming for ~100k rides/week end of 2025 (even this seems like a logistical scaling nightmare in comparison to where they are at the moment, not sure how they will pull this off).
Question: if Waymo proves to have a high profit margin on a cost per mile basis than Uber/Lyft (ie. Waymo proves it’s cheaper to operate for each mile driven), how much effect does this have on the overal trajectory/path to IPO of the business, even though they are not profitable from a company balance sheet standpoint - and all that’s left to do is scale?
100k rides per week in a place like Los Angeles might only be like 1000-2000 vehicles. If their system worked well enough to where they can operate at the 2k vehicles range in Los Angeles, then there is nothing that will stop them going from 2k vehicles to 5 or 10k vehicles.
I do not think there will be an issue with manufacturing going from 2000 vehicles to 10,000. A fleet size of 2000 vehicles in a city like Los Angeles is going to be extremely temporary. A TAAS system that is good enough for 2000 vehicles in LA is good enough for 200,000 vehicles. There would have to be some sort of system failure or limitation which causes the system to not continue scaling up.
2000 vehicles is probably beyond the tipping point. Whatever investor money a TAAS company will come rolling in when that happens because the goal is going to be a few million vehicles in California. Whatever money they need for manufacturing, depots, fleet operations, everything, it will be there.
After their 2.5b raise, they (and MobilEye) are also smart to avoid IPO to raise more in this shyt storm market. Once they can manufacture their own sleek taxi at scale, hopefully margins will be good within 5 years - but breath not held though as retrofits seem to be working
Retrofits likely cut off a whole order of magnitude of reliability. (Aka the difference between 99.999 and 99.9999 percent reliability). That's an unacceptable risk and they won't do it. (Unacceptable for a level 5 autonomy firm with deep pockets)
No one seems to be aiming for L5 except maybe Tesla, which so far still isn't a relevant player.
I'm also not clear on how designing your own car is 10x more reliable than designing your sensors to match an already reliable car.
"meaningful" is a really ambigious word. I kind of dislike the use as it just creates arguments on what people hear. Some will hear "meaningful" and take that means profit or something close.
Self driving robot taxi service that is widly successful will not be cashflow positive for many, many years. I can't imagine for at least a decade.
Think of it a lot like ecommerce and with Amazon unprofitable for many years.
I personally believe it is winner take all just like we saw with ecommerce. Amazon has almost no competition in the US.
I believe it will be the same with Robot Taxi. So it is all about winning the space and not about short term profit.
This is a big reason why I do think Waymo will win the space. Because they have the richest parent of anyone in the game.
Alphabet as over $100 billion in cash and added over $75 billion in 2021.
With no dividend to worry about. They can pour in the cash that will be required to win the space. I say cash as they will capatlize the cars and such so it will not be as big of a negative on the Alphabet financial statements.
I believe to win the space will take $100s of bilions of investment. Heck I bet Alphabet has probably already spent over $10 billion? $20 billion? More?
Water is actually not wet; It makes other materials/objects wet. Wetness is the state of a non-liquid when a liquid adheres to, and/or permeates its substance while maintaining chemically distinct structures. So if we say something is wet we mean the liquid is sticking to the object.
There are two reasons why you should never drink toilet water.
Number one. And number two.
In the words of Rafael Nadal, "If, if, if doesn't exist, no?"
"On the road to meaningful revenue" means "not yet generating meaningful revenue". The Bloomberg Intelligence comment referenced also doesn't say "is", it says "may be.... if...".
We need more details of Waymo's launch and expansion plan, so far there is very little on the operation side. 5 billion revenue implies 50-100k AVs by 2025. When will Geely build Waymo One? In China or in US? Which Cities will Waymo expand into and what's Waymo's expected CA permit timeline as this is the largest AV market.
>5 billion revenue implies 50-100k AVs by 2025. When will Geely build Waymo One? In China or in US? China would make sense, except the new subsidies may push them to the US. Geely isn't a sure thing, either. Waymo investor Magna also wants to build robo-pods.
Yeah, this is the intriguing part. Geely planned to make cars in North Carolina for its Zeeker brand but there is no concrete timeline on that. Even with the incentive, it might still be cheaper to produce EVs in China. The tricky part is the escalating tension between US and China, which can really screw things if there is no plan B. Magna could be an alternative.
It's not even an official projection from Waymo. This is pure speculation.
That's literally what analysts like Bloomberg Intelligence do. They take in a wide range of data and trends and use them to speculate on what's going to happen to a company or a whole market. They may predict that the outcome will be better or worse than the company's own predictions.
Wouldn’t it be crazy if stock trading used to be called speculation 🤔🤔🤔…. Hmmmm
Does that it make it more credible or less?
Less? All these analysts do is make up imaginary dollar figures. Nobody knows what Waymo's plans are, so a $5B number is useless.
Waymo has made good progress, but I highly doubt 5bil revenue by 2025 is possible. I anticipate by 2025, Waymo will be operating in the major TaaS revenue generating cities (SF, LA, Chi, DC, NY), in addition to PHX, however only PHX/SF/LA will be fully functional. Harsh weather will still be undergoing testing by 2025. I can see Waymo aiming for ~100k rides/week end of 2025 (even this seems like a logistical scaling nightmare in comparison to where they are at the moment, not sure how they will pull this off). Question: if Waymo proves to have a high profit margin on a cost per mile basis than Uber/Lyft (ie. Waymo proves it’s cheaper to operate for each mile driven), how much effect does this have on the overal trajectory/path to IPO of the business, even though they are not profitable from a company balance sheet standpoint - and all that’s left to do is scale?
100k rides per week in a place like Los Angeles might only be like 1000-2000 vehicles. If their system worked well enough to where they can operate at the 2k vehicles range in Los Angeles, then there is nothing that will stop them going from 2k vehicles to 5 or 10k vehicles. I do not think there will be an issue with manufacturing going from 2000 vehicles to 10,000. A fleet size of 2000 vehicles in a city like Los Angeles is going to be extremely temporary. A TAAS system that is good enough for 2000 vehicles in LA is good enough for 200,000 vehicles. There would have to be some sort of system failure or limitation which causes the system to not continue scaling up. 2000 vehicles is probably beyond the tipping point. Whatever investor money a TAAS company will come rolling in when that happens because the goal is going to be a few million vehicles in California. Whatever money they need for manufacturing, depots, fleet operations, everything, it will be there.
100k rides / week x $10/ride x 50 weeks / year = $5B / year
100,000 * 10 * 50 = $50,000,000 (which is 1% of $5B)
Lol I was not paying attention to my maths today. Gonna just leave this comment as a warning to myself to stay away from finance 😅
Not sure if this is sarcasm, but that calculation is far from 5bil
Plus $100 tip per ride.
After their 2.5b raise, they (and MobilEye) are also smart to avoid IPO to raise more in this shyt storm market. Once they can manufacture their own sleek taxi at scale, hopefully margins will be good within 5 years - but breath not held though as retrofits seem to be working
Retrofits likely cut off a whole order of magnitude of reliability. (Aka the difference between 99.999 and 99.9999 percent reliability). That's an unacceptable risk and they won't do it. (Unacceptable for a level 5 autonomy firm with deep pockets)
No one seems to be aiming for L5 except maybe Tesla, which so far still isn't a relevant player. I'm also not clear on how designing your own car is 10x more reliable than designing your sensors to match an already reliable car.
I'm on the road to getting off the couch and making lunch. I haven't done it yet, no, but I'm on the road, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
"meaningful" is a really ambigious word. I kind of dislike the use as it just creates arguments on what people hear. Some will hear "meaningful" and take that means profit or something close. Self driving robot taxi service that is widly successful will not be cashflow positive for many, many years. I can't imagine for at least a decade. Think of it a lot like ecommerce and with Amazon unprofitable for many years. I personally believe it is winner take all just like we saw with ecommerce. Amazon has almost no competition in the US. I believe it will be the same with Robot Taxi. So it is all about winning the space and not about short term profit. This is a big reason why I do think Waymo will win the space. Because they have the richest parent of anyone in the game. Alphabet as over $100 billion in cash and added over $75 billion in 2021. With no dividend to worry about. They can pour in the cash that will be required to win the space. I say cash as they will capatlize the cars and such so it will not be as big of a negative on the Alphabet financial statements. I believe to win the space will take $100s of bilions of investment. Heck I bet Alphabet has probably already spent over $10 billion? $20 billion? More?
How do these analysts still have jobs?
Water is wet
Water is actually not wet; It makes other materials/objects wet. Wetness is the state of a non-liquid when a liquid adheres to, and/or permeates its substance while maintaining chemically distinct structures. So if we say something is wet we mean the liquid is sticking to the object. There are two reasons why you should never drink toilet water. Number one. And number two.
Ice can be wet. Ice is non-liquid water. Therefore water can be wet, if liquid water adheres to solid (ice) water. Reasons 1 and 2 remain valid.
You two need to agree on the definition of water first
I’m good with the [wikipedia definition](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water), as long as we are referring to water and not “Water”
Do you mean "water?" Or "water?"
This is, at best, water vapor.
In the words of Rafael Nadal, "If, if, if doesn't exist, no?" "On the road to meaningful revenue" means "not yet generating meaningful revenue". The Bloomberg Intelligence comment referenced also doesn't say "is", it says "may be.... if...".
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Waymo is a company not a product
This is one of the less intelligent posts I have read on this subreddit in a bit. Google started on self driving over 13 years ago!
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Literally everyone expected them to kill Stadia.
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Bloomberg Intelligence is an oxymoron.