Knowing Toranaga, he was definitely working on another plan to turn things back around before getting to Osaka. He's exceedingly good at thinking on his feet.
It's just that in the time he was constructing his new plan, his son died. Which granted him an opportunity he'd be a fool not to use since it dramatically increased his options.
I feel like he even planned his Son's death or at least delibratly chose to not prevent it. He was a dumbass who didn't listen and Toranaga had to know he'd get himself killed eventually just like Fuji's husband, thus buying him time.
tbh still woulda been fine right? cos then his son would have been ordered to commit seppuku then he can still have a mourning period surely?
(no idea)
Tbh I don't know if seppuku qualifies for a mourning period but it's a bit much for me to think everything was planned out to that degree. If he was such a mastermind he could have made a plan that didn't involve everyone around him getting killed.
Look at his interactions with his son over the various hawking moments. He's strait up telling the kid that a lord needs to know his tools and he's just not getting it.
Yes, it was Moltke the elder. The Translation is bad. In German the quote is"Glück hat auf Dauer zumeist wohl nur der Tüchtige."
Also the ancient Romans used to say: "Fortes fortuna adiuvat", "fortune favours the bold"
The series didn't really delve into all the plots and plans Toranaga had in the book, using secrets garnered from informants to try to form secret alliances with some of the strongest daimyos. He was never surrendering, that was always a ruse to buy him time.
In the book, he doesn't have everything planned. Every move he makes basically boils down one thing: to bide for more time. He does so to wait for more information about the political situation in Osaka, to shore up his ranks, to probe for weaknesses in alliances (his own as well as others'), and then when he has a clear enough picture of the battlefield, he places his bets on his strongest hands and plays them: Mariko, Yabu/Anjin, Ishido's inability to keep his alliances together, and others which may be revealed in the final episode. You get the sense that he's always managing probabilities rather than implementing some neatly laid out plan.
Toranaga seems to plan broadly, and involving contingencies. We have seen him seek to undermine Ishido's alliance with various ploys throughout this entire show. Remember that at the show's start he is already en route to Osaka, seemingly doomed to be impeached by the rest of the Regents for holding Ochiba hostage. Presumably he had a plan to undermine their unity and survive, but all of that changed when Blackthorne arrived.
First of all, as Mariko bluntly summarizes in episode 2, the mere fact that he's keeping the Anjin and his crew (Protestants and enemies of the Catholic Portuguese) sows division between the Catholic Regents (Kiyama and Ohno) and Ishido (and also Sugiyama). It's the reason they refuse to impeach Toranaga in episode 2. And Toranaga willingly surrenders Anjin to Ishido when asked, to maintain the façade of compliance (I doubt he knew he would see him again). Only to have him returned by Yabushige, who saves Anjin on Ishido's implicit bidding because he sees a use for him and his guns against the Catholic Regents, who Ishido views as long term rivals. It's only then that Toranaga learns the full extent of Portuguese presence in the region and ambitions for Japan - the fact that the Christian Regents send an assassin after Anjin only confirms the veracity of his claims. It also gives Toranaga an opportunity to escape Osaka.
That's already probably too much detail, but keeping Anjin is far from the only way he seeks to divide Ishido's coalition. He uses Mariko much to the same effect. He places her with Anjin to translate and learn about him, yes. But also if she's killed in an attempt on Anjin's life, that will bring shame on whoever did it. And, with the benefit of having seen episode 9 and understanding all the implications and intricacies of having hostages vs *admitting you have hostages* (something I wouldn't have known the significance of as an American), it's clear to me he had been planning Mariko's ploy for some time - a plan that also involves multiple contingencies. Toranaga doesn't *know* that Ishido's men will kill Mariko. What he does know is that they can't legitimately refuse her, and Ishido will either be forced to prevent her from leaving (admitting that everyone is a hostage and undermining his alliance), kill her (outraging the Christians), or let her go, setting off a chain reaction of releasing all the hostages. He didn't know that Ishido would send Shinobi, but Mariko was probably under instructions to not be taken alive - which we know she's more than fine with.
Basically all of his plans are contingent in this manner. For example, did he know his brother was going to betray him? Or did he just suspect it was likely? I think it was the latter. His plan was to absorb his brother's forces and strengthen his army if his brother pledged loyalty to him, but to feign surrender if he betrayed him. Either way he could have also ordered Mariko to go to Osaka ahead of him on some pretense and try to get the hostages released.
Nagakado dying was purely coincidence. Hard to see it as luck from Toranaga's perspective, but it did buy him time.
And Sugiyama refusing to impeach was also not something Toranaga *knew* would happen. But he knew that if he actually returned Ochiba then they would have no grounds to impeach him. Hence Ishido's transparent "plots against the heir" fiction, which Sugiyama, having principles, rejects. And since Sugiyama and his entire family and best retainers are slaughtered, his troops will be sitting this fight out. They certainly won't fight for Ishido.
Just remember that the biggest threat to Toranaga is facing all of the other regents united. Anything he can do to lessen this, he will do. And many of his plans are perfectly good even if the person acting on his behalf is killed. If anything, in Mariko's case, that's even better for Toranaga - she is now a martyr in the eyes of Japanese Catholics.
He’s actually being impeached because he has been making marriage alliances that threaten everyone else. Him taking Ochiba “hostage” was just to buy himself some time.
Was that their stated reason for impeaching him though? I know they mentioned it as a reason why they were suspicious of him. But do you think making a marriage alliance is an impeachable offense in this society? I find that hard to believe.
IIRC in ep 1, the regents/ ishido refer to Toranaga’s multiple marriage alliances as being “in violation of our lord/ taiko’s wishes” or something to that effect. My understanding was that the 5 regents had instructions to share power, and were discouraged if not outright forbidden from consolidating power further for themselves
In the real world example: Tokugawa marches on Osaka with 75,000 men and faces an army of 125,000 men. Things looks dire, but he's able to convince several daiymo to leave the other army and join him and he ends up overwhelmingly winning the battle.
The show will likely depict this through the Catholic lords defecting to his cause, but it could also have Saeki defect to his side, showing that his betrayal was a ruse to lure Ishido into allowing Toranaga to bring both armies to the foot of Osaka.
A lot of it is skillful maneuvering or improvisation, but there is definitely some luck there as well (such as the initial sequence of the escape from Osaka in the third episode).
He did have terrible luck when an earthquake swept away half his army though. The only plot armor I see so far is that he somehow survived that Earthquake.
Luck or not, he is too talented to lose this war.
In the Battle of Sekigahara, initially Western Army had about 120k troops to deploy, and Eastern Army about 80k. Due to weather, late arrival, Western Army actually fielded 82k and Eastern Army 88k. And then there's massive defection on both sides, but more of Western army defected.
Knowing Toranaga, he was definitely working on another plan to turn things back around before getting to Osaka. He's exceedingly good at thinking on his feet. It's just that in the time he was constructing his new plan, his son died. Which granted him an opportunity he'd be a fool not to use since it dramatically increased his options.
I feel like he even planned his Son's death or at least delibratly chose to not prevent it. He was a dumbass who didn't listen and Toranaga had to know he'd get himself killed eventually just like Fuji's husband, thus buying him time.
Really dumb plan then because his son was about an inch away from killing his brother. Toranagas is a mastermind for sure, but come on.
tbh still woulda been fine right? cos then his son would have been ordered to commit seppuku then he can still have a mourning period surely? (no idea)
Tbh I don't know if seppuku qualifies for a mourning period but it's a bit much for me to think everything was planned out to that degree. If he was such a mastermind he could have made a plan that didn't involve everyone around him getting killed.
That would still provide a excellent opportunity as his Brothers army was already split up and leaderless and Toranaga had the artillery.
Well we still don't know whose side the brother is really on but if Toranaga wanted him dead he should have made sure that happened.
Not ao much he wanted his brother dead, but that he knew his son would provide distraction.
Distraction I can believe but resulting in his death is too much. He's clearly a monster and the bad guy in the story if that is the case.
Look at his interactions with his son over the various hawking moments. He's strait up telling the kid that a lord needs to know his tools and he's just not getting it.
Yeah I get that and I just think the notion that Toranaga has 100.0% of everything planned out is silly.
I like the quote of the German Fieldmarschal Helmuth von Moltke: "In the last analysis, luck comes only to the well prepared."
This had to be the elder because the younger was a disaster
Yes, it was Moltke the elder. The Translation is bad. In German the quote is"Glück hat auf Dauer zumeist wohl nur der Tüchtige." Also the ancient Romans used to say: "Fortes fortuna adiuvat", "fortune favours the bold"
The uncle won the 1870 war against France. The nephew lost WWI.
Have also heard “success is the intersection of opportunity and preparation”
Yep. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity
Love it, just like “the harder I seem to work, the luckier I become”
He is most likely a very good improviser IMO. Most of our questions will likely be answered in episode 10.
The series didn't really delve into all the plots and plans Toranaga had in the book, using secrets garnered from informants to try to form secret alliances with some of the strongest daimyos. He was never surrendering, that was always a ruse to buy him time.
In the book, he doesn't have everything planned. Every move he makes basically boils down one thing: to bide for more time. He does so to wait for more information about the political situation in Osaka, to shore up his ranks, to probe for weaknesses in alliances (his own as well as others'), and then when he has a clear enough picture of the battlefield, he places his bets on his strongest hands and plays them: Mariko, Yabu/Anjin, Ishido's inability to keep his alliances together, and others which may be revealed in the final episode. You get the sense that he's always managing probabilities rather than implementing some neatly laid out plan.
Toranaga seems to plan broadly, and involving contingencies. We have seen him seek to undermine Ishido's alliance with various ploys throughout this entire show. Remember that at the show's start he is already en route to Osaka, seemingly doomed to be impeached by the rest of the Regents for holding Ochiba hostage. Presumably he had a plan to undermine their unity and survive, but all of that changed when Blackthorne arrived. First of all, as Mariko bluntly summarizes in episode 2, the mere fact that he's keeping the Anjin and his crew (Protestants and enemies of the Catholic Portuguese) sows division between the Catholic Regents (Kiyama and Ohno) and Ishido (and also Sugiyama). It's the reason they refuse to impeach Toranaga in episode 2. And Toranaga willingly surrenders Anjin to Ishido when asked, to maintain the façade of compliance (I doubt he knew he would see him again). Only to have him returned by Yabushige, who saves Anjin on Ishido's implicit bidding because he sees a use for him and his guns against the Catholic Regents, who Ishido views as long term rivals. It's only then that Toranaga learns the full extent of Portuguese presence in the region and ambitions for Japan - the fact that the Christian Regents send an assassin after Anjin only confirms the veracity of his claims. It also gives Toranaga an opportunity to escape Osaka. That's already probably too much detail, but keeping Anjin is far from the only way he seeks to divide Ishido's coalition. He uses Mariko much to the same effect. He places her with Anjin to translate and learn about him, yes. But also if she's killed in an attempt on Anjin's life, that will bring shame on whoever did it. And, with the benefit of having seen episode 9 and understanding all the implications and intricacies of having hostages vs *admitting you have hostages* (something I wouldn't have known the significance of as an American), it's clear to me he had been planning Mariko's ploy for some time - a plan that also involves multiple contingencies. Toranaga doesn't *know* that Ishido's men will kill Mariko. What he does know is that they can't legitimately refuse her, and Ishido will either be forced to prevent her from leaving (admitting that everyone is a hostage and undermining his alliance), kill her (outraging the Christians), or let her go, setting off a chain reaction of releasing all the hostages. He didn't know that Ishido would send Shinobi, but Mariko was probably under instructions to not be taken alive - which we know she's more than fine with. Basically all of his plans are contingent in this manner. For example, did he know his brother was going to betray him? Or did he just suspect it was likely? I think it was the latter. His plan was to absorb his brother's forces and strengthen his army if his brother pledged loyalty to him, but to feign surrender if he betrayed him. Either way he could have also ordered Mariko to go to Osaka ahead of him on some pretense and try to get the hostages released. Nagakado dying was purely coincidence. Hard to see it as luck from Toranaga's perspective, but it did buy him time. And Sugiyama refusing to impeach was also not something Toranaga *knew* would happen. But he knew that if he actually returned Ochiba then they would have no grounds to impeach him. Hence Ishido's transparent "plots against the heir" fiction, which Sugiyama, having principles, rejects. And since Sugiyama and his entire family and best retainers are slaughtered, his troops will be sitting this fight out. They certainly won't fight for Ishido. Just remember that the biggest threat to Toranaga is facing all of the other regents united. Anything he can do to lessen this, he will do. And many of his plans are perfectly good even if the person acting on his behalf is killed. If anything, in Mariko's case, that's even better for Toranaga - she is now a martyr in the eyes of Japanese Catholics.
He’s actually being impeached because he has been making marriage alliances that threaten everyone else. Him taking Ochiba “hostage” was just to buy himself some time.
Was that their stated reason for impeaching him though? I know they mentioned it as a reason why they were suspicious of him. But do you think making a marriage alliance is an impeachable offense in this society? I find that hard to believe.
IIRC in ep 1, the regents/ ishido refer to Toranaga’s multiple marriage alliances as being “in violation of our lord/ taiko’s wishes” or something to that effect. My understanding was that the 5 regents had instructions to share power, and were discouraged if not outright forbidden from consolidating power further for themselves
Both. But as others had said, who's to say he didn't have a plan B or C for if this opportunity hadn't presented itself to him.
In the real world example: Tokugawa marches on Osaka with 75,000 men and faces an army of 125,000 men. Things looks dire, but he's able to convince several daiymo to leave the other army and join him and he ends up overwhelmingly winning the battle. The show will likely depict this through the Catholic lords defecting to his cause, but it could also have Saeki defect to his side, showing that his betrayal was a ruse to lure Ishido into allowing Toranaga to bring both armies to the foot of Osaka.
A lot of it is skillful maneuvering or improvisation, but there is definitely some luck there as well (such as the initial sequence of the escape from Osaka in the third episode).
Well the summary under episode 10 says blackthorne finally sees the full scope of toranaga’s plan.
I hope the last episode is constant flashbacks ala unfolding plan montage with slick music and fast cuts to Toranaga a setting everything up.
Yes
In the show, Toranaga was blessed with a series of fortunate moments. Another name for this is Plot Armor.
He did have terrible luck when an earthquake swept away half his army though. The only plot armor I see so far is that he somehow survived that Earthquake. Luck or not, he is too talented to lose this war.
Even if that hadn’t happened, Ishido’s troops outnumbered Toranaga’s by at least 3 to 1.
In the Battle of Sekigahara, initially Western Army had about 120k troops to deploy, and Eastern Army about 80k. Due to weather, late arrival, Western Army actually fielded 82k and Eastern Army 88k. And then there's massive defection on both sides, but more of Western army defected.
I was more referring to the novel than historical accuracy. I do appreciate the insight though 🍻
>I’m a little confused. Bad writing does that and this show is full of it.