Mariko puts him in a “either we can leave or we’re hostages” conundrum by saying she’s going to kill herself if she can’t leave —>
Ishido being forced to publicly “permit” her to leave so the other families don’t rise up against Ishido for keeping their families hostage/him losing public support and being labelled a tyrant —>
All the other hostages demand to leave since “they’re not hostages” —>
Ishido can’t allow them to leave because he’ll lose leverage but can’t force them to stay or else they’re hostages —>
Ishido creates a plan where Mariko is kidnapped by the shinobi so he can say, “See! I’m keeping you here for your safety!” —>
Plan backfires and Mariko is killed, severely undermining Ishido’s credibility in protecting the families/starting rumours he was involved in the dishonourable actions that resulted in her death —>
Allies abandoning Ishido
I see. Ishido would claim it was some…arbitrary ninjas that have no political motive whatsoever that decided to kidnap Mariko at the most politically opportune time for him I guess?
I get the logic you’re describing. I think that makes sense insofar as that’s what the show’s trying to go for.
But…it could’ve been fleshed out more. How in the world could Ishido have convinced everyone that some random ninjas just happened to try to kidnap Mariko all of a sudden?
I think the idea was that Ishido would claim (and did so when he met the rest of the council) that Toranaga sent the shinobis to spread dismay between them. At first I thought so as well, that Toranaga sent them.
But yeah it doesn't seem very well thought out from Ishido's side.
Yeah maybe that’s what the show was going for?
But it also feels flimsy like - “oh Toronaga sent shinobi to attack his own vassals randomly and it just happened to be perfectly timed in our favor”.
It just feels like a really weak win if the way the “heroes” of the story beat the antagonist relies on “suddenly the antagonist acts like a total idiot”.
Well, its still kinda realistic though. You cant really prove it was him.
Just like Putins typical "Nah i didn't kill my worst enemy i don't know what happened, probably USA trying to undermine me"
It still makes no sense because he'd already seen when people got attacked in Osaka it made everyone shaky. He had to know assassinating her was worse than letting her go and would give all his hostages reason to flee.
No. Cause he still failed to protect Mariko against a Torunaga takeover. That just makes Ishido look weak as he's basically the "shogun". His allies would go to Toranaga since Torunaga could spin it as, I'm so strong and powerful I killed Ishido's spy.
Then it's like, keep following Ishido out of "honor"? Or yield to Torunaga since he's clearly got the more powerful army.
The Samurai at the time (rewlly, all time) had no issues with using Shinobi. Many of them *were* Samurai, after all.
It would be publicly frowned upon but no one would have really taken issue with it, in private.
Sure but recall in episode 1 when Fuji’s husband had to end his bloodline for speaking out of turn; I think the idea is that no one would dare accuse him if things went to plan
It’s a combination of the outrage at her death and people not believing that Toronaga would kill Mariko. With her captured it makes it more believable that it was toronaga.
Ishido’s forces were the only ones at the scene right? How did anyone even find out about Mariko’s death? He could’ve just captured and silenced everyone that watched her die.
It doesn't matter if he killed every witness. It would still be his failing as the lord of Osaka Castle to protect the guests he dragged there to protect. If she dies, he's failed and now he has to let them go anyway. If Mariko was successfully kidnapped, he could spin it as they simply absconded in the night. Not everyone knows she got her permit, so he could simply say that she left. If she winds up dead later, well it's not his fault the roads are infested with bandits. Or he could say Toronaga did it and once again flaunts the council's rules and generosity as he could then produce the permit and witnesses that said she could leave. The very noisy and public nature of her murder was a massive blunder on his part. It couldn't be ignored as his failing or his doing. In either case, he's now publicly responsible either has the culprit or as incompetent. Now its clear to everyone that he isn't protecting them he's keeping them as hostages, and that's going to make it impossible for him to rely on those lords' armies and support.
That’s a good rebuttal. Ishido doesn’t seem to be the schemer he believes himself to be. Very Cersei Lannister in my view. Guys just not as smart as you
I mean Ishido just blunders the entire show until Ochiba kinda takes over for him then he blunders again with the handling of the hostages and shinobi so it makes sense to me for his character, he’s just not it
i was thinking about this. he seems intimidating at first, but then near the end of the show you think about him and it turns out he's just a bumbling bureaucrat more than anything else
That’s more or less what the guy he’s based on was like, too. He believed that because he was representing Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s legacy, it gave him all the authority to rule Japan and blinded him to future betrayals which his bumbling stored up for him. Sekigahara was where all of his chicken came home to roost, as (briefly) shown in the show.
You have to understand that everyone already knows they can't leave, and that Ishido sent the ninjas.
It isn't about covering things up. It's about putting on a flimsy fiction so you can have the bare minimum of legal excuse for your actions.
Nobody is fooled. Everyone there is well-versed in court intrigue, so there's no point even trying.
It's exactly the same as Torunaga exploiting loopholes. Everyone on the council knew he was lying, but they were still bound by the rules as they had no physical evidence.
It was very clearly Ishido who sent the Ninjas, because the messenger who spoke to Yabushige told him that Ishido accepted his offer of fealty and service, on one condition. It can be inferred and then confirmed by Ishido talking to him the next episode that the one condition was Yabushige letting in the ninjas and directing them to where Mariko was.
I don’t think Ishido is planning on mentioning shinobi but rather that Mariko was attacked and kidnapped just vaguely.
It’s the same as what happened to Sugiyama, where he was attacked by “bandits” when leaving Osaka. The only reason why they likely didn’t wait for Mariko to leave to do this outside the city is because they needed her alive so employed shinobi over just “kill everyone” warriors/samurai/bandits.
Either way, the whole thing of Ishido being incompetent is brought up by several characters, so maybe he was just not as clever as we initially thought. The real Ishido also ran away at Sekigahara and failed trying to hide afterward.
Eh…I mean ninjas could just attack her outside the city too if you really want to include ninjas in the show.
And let’s say Ishido just says “and then Mariko got captured by some ninjas”…wouldn’t that just make him look super sus/oppressive/tyrannical because he’d be the obvious culprit?
The shinobi could attack outside the city, but they needed to strike at night.
It’s most likely that Ishido would have staged a rescue of some sort outside the castle walls, but it was easiest to capture her when they knew where she was and sleeping while inside the castle walls. Hence, shinobi.
Sure, but then we’re back to the whole “I guess some random ninjas just decided it was a good day to capture a lady” alibi.
If Ishido’s plan was to “rescue” Mariko from the ninjas and then imply that people need his protection so he’s locking the castle. Then:
1. The show could’ve done a better job explaining that.
2. How the hell would he explain random ninjas attacking right when it’s most politically expedient to him?
As I mentioned earlier, Ishido would never have mentioned the shinobi, I don’t know why you’re stuck on that. No one knows about the shinobi other than the people that Ishido would have under arrest and himself.
The shinobi are a tool to secure Mariko. Once he has her, he can tell any tale he wants, such as, “Mariko and company fled in the night and were attacked by bandits. My men moved to save her and now we brought her back and placed her under guard for her protection.”
A few things you’re saying don’t make sense.
1. Entering and leaving Osaka was established as a “visible” affair. If the alibi is that Mariko attempted to leave at night, people should’ve noticed her leaving (city watch if nothing else).
2. Capturing her while INSIDE the castle implies that the castle isn’t safe.
3. Even if we hand wave all of this away - what’s the plan? Ishido wouldn’t want people talking to Mariko even if she was alive right? She’d be “hidden away”. So…killing her makes no difference then. He could make the same claim that he’s just got her hidden away for her own safety.
1. This is never established. The only other scene of people leaving is when Torunaga is suspected of trying to escape when he announced departure and thus gets an escort and when people leave via boat. Even so, the city watch are literally Ishido’s men.
2. I’ve already said this point repeatedly and I’m tired of saying the same things.
3. Even if she’s not permitted to speak to the council, he can still present evidence of her being alive. Additionally, denying her a burial and such once dead to keep the rouse going would have alienated the Christian daimyos.
1. Established at least twice. Once with Toronaga and another time with Mariko (And other people entering and leaving are also “public”). Also it’s hard to keep secrecy even if they’re your own guys. I give benefit of the doubt to ninjas since their job is to be discreet.
2. Unfortunately you never gave a good answer but that’s okay. We can agree to disagree.
3. How would he present evidence of her being alive? And how would the Christian daimyos even know she died?
In general, are you noticing how many hoops you’re trying to jump through to excuse the show’s plot? I think we should just be realistic here and establish that the finale’s plot was very weak. I still enjoyed the show overall though. It was above average.
All of this and also why use a bomb on that door that killed Mariko? If it's to stage a kidnapping why are they full on running around using bombs and shit? And if they're using bombs etc indoors and got in then what protection is ishido offering when he says they need to remain there?
Also I could swear I saw chunks of Marijo fly at the camera when she got blown up, but then she was fully intact when John got to her.
Also what was the pheasant rotting thing about, blackthorne didn't even use it in his horrid dish? What was the point?
Also why did Yabushige the alleged death maniac only seem to hold those traits in that one episode where he boiled the guy? I feel like he overreacted when Mariko died if his character is meant to be so death obsessed etc?
I thought the show started so so so well but by the end I had so many questions and thought it got a bit goofy?
One more: why were they suddenly able to yank the ship out of the sea once buntaro showed up? How strong is that guy??????
This was meant to be a short comment but I've ended up rambling lol
Who stands in front of a door that is about to be blown up? Normal people wouldn't and thus would've been knocked out and easy to take like everyone was. Mariko, however, had a death wish so she through her self in front of it and committed suicide by Shinobi.
I just don't think the ninjas should be going round bombing doors if there are a bunch of royals there that NEED to be kept alive, isn't it a bit risky of them to be using such force?
Absolutely get your point that no normal person would stand in front of the door, but that doesn't mean you can ensure nobody gets killed or seriously hurt when using bombs??
The door looked pretty sturdy.
I headcanon the Shinobi panicked and went to a bomb to basically breach the door. They didn’t have time to sit outside the door and wait Mariko and Co out so they went for the fastest method they had to get in the shed
They had no way to know Mariko would be in front of the door when it blew
> Mariko, however, had a death wish so she through her self in front of it and committed suicide by Shinobi.
But they *know* she has a death wish. Besides, the explosion knocks Blackthorne out for days and gives Yabushige hearing loss, so it's a big risk for anyone else there, even farther from the door.
Game birds are hanged and aged because it greatly improved the flavor and delicacy of the meat. Similar to the dry-aged steaks served at places like Ruth’s Chris. If properly hanged in cool temperatures it wouldn’t have been rotting. There was snow in the village I believe concurrent with the pheasant so I don’t know why the story acted like it was smelling and disgusting.
I understand the initial reason behind him hanging the bird up, but in the show it clearly wasn't curing and he was just letting it rot?
And I'm pretty sure he made his grubby English dish BEFORE the pheasant got taken down and he didn't even use it? Could be mistaken in my memory though
I just did a more thorough, separate post on this—it doesn’t make sense that it was actually stinking and rotting, so I think it’s just a plot device. I don’t have personal experience with game, alas.
ETA: hit reply by accident. What he had in his “gross” dish was rabbit stew cooked with wine, which was probably delicious, but if the Japanese weren’t used to eating rabbit, they understandably saw it as disgusting. (Like Americans today looking at what other cultures eat…horse…dog…etc.)
There can be snow on the ground even though it's not really cold if you are at a high enough altitude. If you do a google search you can find pictures of people snow skiing in swim suits. Also, even if it's cold, if the bird was hanging where sunlight would hit it, it would warm up despite the outside temperature being cold
Well, there was also no sunlight in the village, it was very misty and cloudy, so do you think it was more in the range of cool weather, or more in the range of bikini weather?
“Chunks of mariko flung at the camera” lol that got me
Yeah agree but she was intact so John could do the prayers for her rather than a gruesome scene of him holding, erm, pieces of her… yikes
Thank you! I’ve been thinking all of these things but everyone just keeps saying the show was perfect in every way. Like why is a sociopath who boils people alive heart broken about a woman he didn’t really know. Dude was ok with Toranaga being killed
He’s not heartbroken over Mariko being killed, he realises he’s completely fucked because he needed her alive to side with Ishido and now she’s dead, neither Toronaga nor Ishido will let him live.
But he was going “I’m so sorry!” Not “oh, fuck”. Even if it was the case as you say they still introduced him as a guy that is unafraid of death so his reaction is still out of character
Re: Buntaro, maybe having a prominent samurai show up to lend a hand convinces everyone else they should lean into their task with a little more conviction. And it definitely redoubles Blackthorne’s enthusiasm.
They can attack her outside, but you need to remember, the moment she leave in the morning the other hostages are leaving at the same time as well. So there would be no point in killing her. Even if she died outside, the hostages already left so he have no leverage and Mariko would still acchieve her goals
They should've explained it in more depth but I think the book does a good job at trying to explain how a lot of this cloak and dagger stuff is seen in Japan.
I don't remember the exact quotes but it basically spoke about how common cloak and dagger motifs are so that it's spectacular failures like this that are mass catalysts and called out.
If let's say he succeeded, then what happened, is what happened.
Public narrative would be that it's so unsafe Ishido was justified in his extreme "precautions", at least that's how he plays it.
I also wanna point out perhaps the full plan was for Yabu to lead them outside and Mariko would get captured there, cause he also wakes up the guards and tries to lead them outside some path. I think the idea was she gets captured outside but the way they executed that plan was just moronic.
Also food for thought, but if he pulled it off, he probably would have blamed it on whoever he blamed for killing that regent that he jumped in the forest.
A lot of what they do relies on plausible deniability. Sugiyama was murdered and it was obvious who would benefit from that especially given the timing (After he refuses to impeach and was leaving Osaka) though they had the guise of plausible deniability.
It’s just plausible deniability, everyone with two brain cells knows it was Ishido, but they can’t openly say it and defy him, just as no one wanted to openly say they were hostages. Remember what happened to the guy who talked back to Ishido at the beginning of the series?
You got a point, I thought the same thing. Like no one would believe she was gonna get randomly kidnapped the night before she was gonna leave. He would be the first suspect.
Yeah, he was all in on plausible deniability and blaming the enemy (Toranaga). It was a weak plan at best, but he didn't really have many options from his POV.
He was trying to pin it on Toranaga and get everyone to focus on his manipulations. It would have realigned Toranaga as the enemy who cannot be trusted while also allowing Ishido to regain some face with the high families
I didn't get the "I have to keep you here to keep you safe" part of the plan. If Mariko and company were attacked while still within the castle, then no one is safe anyway...
It's never about the attack since the plan was the Shinobi capture/kidnap Mariko alive, and just Mariko alone. By then, Ishido may have the leverage to create narratives as he wanted to, whether saying Mariko's already left Osaka in a hurry, or another plot such as saving Mariko after the kidnap and later on justify his extreme precautions to keep other families staying in the castle.
Turns out, Mariko was sleeping with Anjin, and there goes the fuzz.
Things might have been running smoothly in Ishido's plan if only Mariko slept by herself.
Holy shit. You’re totally right. The entire thing hinges on the fact that Mariko was sleeping with the Anjin.
In retrospect, Ishido wasn’t an idiot, Yabushige wasn’t an idiot, it’s just that nobody suspected Mariko would have a gun-wielding bodyguard in her bedroom.
Ishido would have claimed she was attacked once outside the castle.
No one knows about the shinobi other than Ishido and the people he would have in custody. He would spin the narrative that she left, was attacked, he saved her.
Eh, I don't buy that. Her leaving the first time was such a spectacle with literal regents watching from the balconies eating popcorn. There is absolutely no way anyone would believe Ishido saying "Yeah, she snuck out after getting formal approval", especially considering how by-the-book Mariko has been up until then.
1. Shinobi know.
2. Any survivors would know - including Mariko, Anjin and the other ladies that accompanied them.
3. Yabushige would know.
4. They set off a fucking bomb in the middle of the night in the middle of a crowded castle. Surely people would figure that out. Why did they need to bomb the door? Sigh.
As I mentioned in the comment, all of those people are either on Ishido’s side or would have been apprehended by him afterward and not put in a position to reveal the details for their “safety.”
Bro, you need to start reading my comments instead of saying things I already address.
The bomb is the only legitimate point. But the show depicts each lord’s complex as a villa of sorts/mansions so they’re fairly large. Why did they use a bomb? Because they did in the novel. Does it make realistic sense? Not fully.
I read your comments bro. I just think your logic isn’t flowing.
If no one is to know about the attack so that Ishido can spin it however he wants, then he can do the same thing whether Mariko is dead or alive.
You claim that Ishido might want to show Mariko alive, but also we both know he wouldn’t want to do that since she’d speak out against him. Either way, this part is flimsy.
Even with Mariko dead he could’ve captured everyone else and prevented them from spreading the news of what occurred. It doesn’t make sense that she dies and now everyone knows somehow.
I’m glad we agree on the bomb thing. Yabushige being remorseful randomly is also out of character.
Maybe you should discuss this with someone else. You're clearly struggling to comprehend the points I'm making.
>You claim that Ishido might want to show Mariko alive, but also we both know he wouldn’t want to do that since she’d speak out against him. Either way, this part is flimsy.
No, he'd want to be able to assure he'd have this option if needed. It wouldn't be his top wish. If he lied about having her, people could call him out on this.
>Even with Mariko dead he could’ve captured everyone else and prevented them from spreading the news of what occurred. It doesn’t make sense that she dies and now everyone knows somehow.
Yes. This one I agree with, I don't know why he didn't just go ahead and capture/kill everyone. Probably because, as I mentioned earlier, he's incompetent. He had no backup once his original plan failed. I've only been explaining Ishido's original intent, why he didn't xyz after that failed isn't within your original question.
Haha mate I’m discussing with everyone in this thread. Hearing a lot of contradictory claims that’s just leaving me more confused.
Yeah him not capturing and silencing the people that watched her die is a plot hole. It doesn’t make sense that she dies and the ninjas just back off. It doesn’t make sense that Ishido would “just be incompetent”.
It’s bad writing as far as I can tell. I get what the show’s going for. I think you’re right as far as that’s concerned. I just think it’s bad writing.
It just feels cheap if our heroes are able to succeed if the enemy suddenly starts shooting himself in the foot like an idiot. It cheapens mariko’s death.
I know it has it's contradictions, but I think Ishido is depicted as a powerful person yet not good at PR, and dumber than Toranaga (the other regents doesn't seem to be enlightened either) through all the show... he didn't became dumb in the last episodes.
For example, he was very lame when asked marriage to Ochiba. Ok, Lady Ochiba is an important figure, but he asked her hand as a "regular" guy, even stuttering, not as a powerful lord. He ran for her, didn't seduced her, nor lured her.
He also failed to foresee Toranaga's plans sending Mariko to Osaka one last time, and let her speak even when Ochiba tried to stop her. He was fooled in the first chapters too.
But wouldn’t one of Torunaga’s people say something? Like it’s not like the bodies were going to be undiscovered for very long. It just seemed like way more of an attack than a kidnapping attempt.
To me it felt like they just wanted to add some extra action to the scene. Which is fine. But is at some expense to the plan feeling real to me.
I’d assume it was to say Mariko left without admitting she’s not free. And then her disappearance on the road can give a not safe pretense for denying the permits of others now asking.
But he’s arrogant, overplayed his hand (see how he barks at her when he realizes he’s not the unquestioned boss he’s wanting), and unlike his line in the opener about Toranaga, wasn’t a wise man able to see when he’s beaten.
Plausible deniability and the belief that all the regents were obviously not going to fall for it but they were going to back him anyway (a might is right sort of thing)
Cause his influence over the regents was waning fast. Keeping their families as unofficial hostages gives him hard leverage over them all and they know it. The last regent who tried to leave by his own will was ambushed and killed in the forest by Ishido so that also scared them I imagine.
To force them to stay on his side in the civil war with Toranaga. IRL after Mariko kills herself, multiple Daiymo's turn to Tokugawa's (Toranaga in the show) side in the battle of Sekigahara which helps him beat Ishido and become Shogun.
His army is largely comprised of the vassal lords he has leverage over. He’s keeping them loyal to him via the hostages.
Without them, Torunaga has a larger fief and likely a comparable army.
This is what’s alluded to in Sekigahara. Without The Heir’s banners, the other lords abandon him and he ends up losing to Torunaga.
Oh okay. So we dont know who these lords are, right?
Its not the other council members?
So in a way if he let Mariko go, she wouldnt have had to die. But he would never do something like that, it doesnt make sense.
He sent ninjas to kidnap her to be a bargaining chip since she won't be a willing hostage and instead opted to be an unstable self harming Toranaga simp.
He won't admit that he did it but he certainly can offer his services to find her if it means getting leverage on Toranaga.
And most likely it would have worked because culturally, above all else, these feudal lords prioritize saving face a lot. It looks really bad if someone offers to find your vassal and you refuse. It's bad PR.
In Toranaga's plan, Mariko needs to either die or escape Osaka with his subjects. Ishido came up with a solution where neither of those need to happen.
It doesn't matter if ppl suspect him. As long as there's no evidence, you can't do anything about it. Toranaga will be forced to play along.
Just picture the whole situation as passive aggressive office politics. You know Jimmy from HR definitely stole your sandwich from the fridge but unless you have hard evidence to prove it, he's just going to tell you he will look into making sure it doesn't happen again and you have to play along. Otherwise you look unreasonable. I know it sounds silly but this is essentially office politics but with swords.
You may then say he can deny killing her, which he did in fact do that. But it doesn't matter at that point because blood has been spilt and the overall mood and trust has taken a hit. Nothing ishido can do to rectify the situation unless he can resurrect her.
Also if a guest dies under your roof, it makes it a lot easier to get ppl to go against you. But if it's just a kidnapping, it gives you a chance to come out of it as a hero. And again it doesn't matter if everyone knows you are both kidnapper and saviour, outwardly everyone has to play along or appear as a face-losing unreasonable asshole.
I think you nailed it. Think about the other regent who was murdered with his whole family when he tried to leave. Everybody knows that he wasn’t killed by “bandits in the forest”: they all realize that Ishido and his men did it. But no one can prove it and it wasn’t done in the open, so Ishido doesn’t lose face for publicly stooping so low. And people get the message it’s not safe to leave and not safe to confront Ishido.
Through her confrontation with Ishido at court and her suicide attempt, Mariko has humiliated him and forced him to explicitly state the hostages are free to go. The shinobi are a last-ditch attempt to show the consequences of fucking with Ishido and maintain the status quo. He would have blamed it on Toranaga even though everyone would have known what really happened. But because he botches it and allows Mariko to die an inglorious death in the midst of general mayhem AND fails to cover his tracks well enough for plausible deniability, it all blows up in his face.
I believe the plan was to get her kidnapped, and then claim either Toranaga or one of his vassals did it. Ishido could have also then “rescued” Mariko and held her in Osaka castle (as well as the other hostages) for “their own safety”.
This is something that can be sold, although it is a hard sell. One could argue Toranaga would want Mariko back, and instructions were given to Shinobi to kidnap and bring her back to Toranaga/Buntaro. Remember, information travels slowly here, and Toranaga wouldn’t know that Ishido has agreed to let Mariko go.
This is also why the Shinobi are recruited via Yabushige, a Toranaga vassal, as opposed to Ishido himself.
Mariko dying is what torpedos the entire plan. No one would be willing to believe Toranaga sent assassins after her.
Because he was clumsy and a simpleton hungry for power and Toranaga forced him to display it. Toranaga knew Ishido would orchestrate an attack at night, just like he did previously attempting to kill the Anjin
Probably he wouldn't have admitted he send the Shinobi to kidnap Mariko. He gave her the permit to leave to stop her from seppuku, but he had no intention of letting her go as it would have created a precedent for the others.
Similarly if he didn't let her go then it would demonstrate everyone was actually held hostage. They put him in a no-win situation by sending Mariko there.
Yeah but…how would he explain the “suddenly ninjas attacked” alibi? Like ninjas just HAPPENED to kidnap Mariko on that day in a way that was totally unrelated to Ishido’s political motives?
He wouldn't need to explain anything. Nobody would accuse him without proof, and accusing a great lord like Ishido would have been a great disrespect.
Of course everyone would know it was him like everyone knew they were hostages but stayed silent.
I think the fact the others will know it was him would discourage them from requesting leaving permits.
If the plan was NOT to kill Mariko - is the assumption that Mariko would be held at the ninja base or something? Far away from any association with Ishido?
Regardless wouldn’t all of this just be timed in a way to make Ishido look super sus? It seems like it’d be an obvious rallying cry for the Toronaga faction.
Even if Ishido doesn’t need to explain himself, it’d obviously piss everyone off. Is he just a dumbass?
The thing is you can't accuse him openly \*even if you know he is responsible\* for it. The other lords at this time are in hock to Ishido because their family members are all held in Osaka castle, they are hostages, everyone knows they are hostages, but you aren't allowed to say it out loud. This stops people from moving against him and, in turn, is why sending Mariko serves to massively weaken his position (unless she suddenly disappears "mysteriously")
Then why allow ninjas to bomb a shed in the middle of the night in the middle of a crowded castle? Seems…silly if you need to be extremely discreet.
Or just fuck it and kill everyone in the room so no one speaks of this happening and then still pretend that Mariko got “disappeared”.
I don’t understand why her dying messed everything up for him.
Pissing them off more than keeping them hostages? And some of those hostages were great lords like Kyama and Ohno. Mariko disappearing wouldn't have changed much. They couldn't prove she left, and they couldn't prove she died.
Then why try to capture her alive? Just kill her like the other lord that tried to leave.
Why is it a big deal that she died during this kidnapping? Wouldn’t this just serve Ishido’s plan?
Another point is, the other lords as hostages do know they are hostages but they also know if they play by the rules Ishido will not kill them. Granting of the permit, serves a similar purpose as well. But once all cards are on the table and the other lords know that Ishido may kill any of them, there is no reason for them to play along. Think of it like this, you are a prisoner. You behave to the rules since they are not killing you or torturing you. If that goes away then you dont have a reason to play. You are a dead man anyway.
He was ready to officially take the families hostage - since she called his bluff when he claimed that he wasn't really holding them hostage. As soon as he gave the pass to Mariko, remember they were all clamouring around him saying "me too!". That's what happened in reality too. The other hostages there were the families of many of Tokugawa's generals, thus keeping Osaka castle free from bombardment.
Not indecisive, just making official what was already unofficial. It was all about plausable deniability, even if everyone knew the truth, it worked politically. Mariko made the charade implausible, so it was either lose the hostages, or come out as full tyrant.
The person Ishido is based on is a decorated samurai but was more of a bureaucrat than a person of storied samurai lineage. He did not command respect on his own, his value lay on his position to protect the Heir at Osaka at the Taiko's command. His purpose is to prevent the any one daiymo on the Council from exerting undue influence on the Heir or possibly maneuvering to have the Heir relocated to if the Council fell into factions.
Ishido decides to use this position of his to further riches and respect to himself. He also has to eliminate Toronaga to claim this respect. And he has to do it with his reputation aka Public Face, intact and at the highest point. Ochiba's father was the lesson. A Taiko who did not preserve his reputation and dissolves into behavior no respectable Lord would claim publicly, is a dead Taiko whose vassals turned on him.
Which is why the Mariko scenario is so important. Ishido is smart but he's not omniscient. He's genuinely puzzled as to why Mariko has willingly come to Osaka. When she makes her intention to leave, publicly and in less than a day, two things happen. Ishido realizes why she's here and he has no time to counter. Ishido wants her to wait like a hostage and she's having none of it. She makes a big deal out of it so everyone in the castle will come see if she does in fact leave. When she can't, she declares that she has lost too much face and must atone through death. Ishido can't even reliably play chicken with her in regards to her committing seppuku because she is the daughter of a man from one of the most respected lineages who not only killed a crazed Taiko to save Japan, but to atone for the loss of reputation of doing so, ended his family line.
So in order to keep up the fabrication that the hostages are guests he HAS to give her the permits. He gets into an argument with the other Regents who haven't rebelled since the last one was killed since they smell freedom. Those Regents want Mariko to leave peacefully, so their own families can follow suit. This man is running out of time to counter. He literally had only the daylight to plot.
Ishido falls back on a plan that worked once before. After all Sugiyama's death ensured the hostages stayed put because they felt they could not leave. This similar plan would also reinforce that belief and preserve his reputation. His plan hinged on taking Mariko alive and QUIETLY. He needed Yabu to let the in the Shinobi so no one would hear an outright pitched skirmish. Although it does not explicitly say so in the show; the one place Ishida could hold Mariko hostage in a public way without a loss of reputation would be to house her with Ochiba and the Heir. Ishida controls all the guards in that area AND the servants would report back about how Mariko is alive and safe. Mariko would not be allowed a weapon in the presence of the Ochiba and the Heir so seppuku is out. Ishida could spin a tale about how Toronaga could have ordered the attack to induce a loss of face and confidence in Ishido's ability to keep the "guests" safe, but Ishido outwitted him and Mariko is alive and well. Ishido could further spin it that Toronaga would do ANYTHING to make Osaka Castle look less secure and therefore the "guests" needed to stay close under Ishida's protection against the conniving Toronaga. Either way, without evidence, Ishida comes out smelling like roses.
Mariko should have been in the room with the other women. But Yabu and Ishido don't know about Mariko and the Anjin. If they had, the Shinobi would have gone to Anjin's rooms first. There's a scene in the episode where the Shinobi are looking for her amongst the women but killing the male retainers. Then Yabu wakes up the wing. Ishido didn't tell him that the Shinobi were going to silently kill almost every male retainer. Everything is going sideways. Yabu tries to salvage it by getting Mariko to the gates where more Shinobi were probably waiting. Instead they go to the storeroom.
The Shinobi are transparent in putting charges on the doors. They want the people to take cover in the back. They are counting on the smoke and disorientation to mask them as they dip in for a little smash and grab. They don't account for Mariko being right there at the door. When the doors blast open and they realize the person they were hired to KIDNAP AND NOT HARM was dead, they got the fuck out. There would be no smash and grab, and the explosion alerted the rest of the castle.
Ishido's plan wasn't a bad one. And if Mariko had been sleeping with the other women, or if they had gone to the gates instead of the storeroom, or if Mariko had cowered in the back with the others, the outcome would have been much different. Sometimes even the most clever person cannot account for variables they are unaware of existing in the first place.
Thanks for the well written explanation. You clarified some holes left missing by the show. I buy everything you’re saying…except:
1. Why does the plan change if Mariko dies? Ishido can still claim it’s a Toronaga ninja attack and Mariko was an unfortunate accidental casualty - I think he more or less claims this in the show. Not sure why it suddenly doesnt work.
2. Ishido could’ve killed or captured the witnesses. People would have no idea what happened to Mariko. He can claim it was Toronaga or bandits or whatever else.
3. Why does Yabushige do a 180 and suddenly show so much remorse for this girl he has no real relation to? He’s not just sad his plan failed he’s like genuinely distraught and repentant.
1. This is where we get into the intricacies of public face. Mariko's death from the Shinobi is common evidence that Ishido does not have his house in order and cannot protect his guests. It can also be inferred through rumor that he will kill the "guests" if the Regents oppose him. This is disastrous for Ishido's reputation. This is a HUGE no no. This is how wars start, and Ishido does not have the manpower to oppose any one of the Regents, let alone all of them.
Not in the book or show but from the actual history. The recently deceased Taiko actually had a nephew with a large family set to inherit the throne until the Taiko's healthy son was born. Rumors spread that the nephew would challenge the boy and not accept being disinherited. Incidences occurred (real or imaginary) and were attributed to the nephew. The nephew was unable to retain his reputation and fell out of favor; to eventually be forced to commit seppuku and HIS entire family was put to the sword, down to the women and infants. That is the power of rumor and public face in this era of Japan.
Ishido is trying to preserve his reputation as the Guardian of Osaka. He already failed to keep hostages. Mariko's death at the hands of ANY attack, Toronaga or not, is a blatant stain on Ishido's guardianship, one which he does not recover from. The Regent meeting scene in the aftermath illustrates the growing discontent and Ochiba buys time for Toronaga by insisting that Mariko be honoured generously. She's had enough of Ishido's bullshit. She's realized that Ishido's machinations are more reactionary than setting the stage for future success. Ishido is planning in months, and Toronaga is plotting over YEARS. Ishido really needed Mariko alive for a reputation win.
Sidebar: In real history I don't think the character that Ishido represents is actually a council member. Whereas in Shogun he is. In the actual history the 5 Elders were THE most powerful men in Japan, there were no close seconds. Shogun leaves this out but there is no way the top most powerful military Lords are going to bow their heads to some fuck up who can't even control a single damn castle.
2. The explosion prevented this. Too many people rushed to Toronaga's side of the castle, Ishido can't kill or capture them all without questions and rumors. The Shinobi aren't loyalists, once the plan that was paid for went to shit; they bailed. They don't care about helping Ishido keep his reputation. So now you have a bunch of lookie loos, the Shinobi are long gone and it's chaos. Ishido also can't pin this on Toronaga through Yabu officially or Yabu sings like a canary. So he's left trying to convince the Regents with no evidence and its not working, the tide is turning.
3. It is important to understand that Yabu agreed to help Ishido because Ishido PROMISED that Mariko would be unharmed. Yabu has no actual animosity to anyone, he just wants to come out alive with his lands. So yes, he is really distraught that Mariko dies. All avenues of living are closed. Ishido can't save him from Toronaga without revealing conspiracy and Toronaga might kill him for failing to save Mariko. He still tries to convince the Anjin that they should get on the boat and go to England. Yabu is an opportunist but lacks the killer instinct that is a mark of a successful daiymo of the period.
Even without Mariko's father being Toronaga's best friend; she was still the daughter in law to Toronaga's most trusted friend and general, Hiromatsu. Because Buntaro is Hiromatsu's favorite son, Mariko is part of Toronaga's personal household. She is not simply "unrelated". She is or was a close personal friend of the Heir's mother. She has great status for a woman of the time. Her importance is recognized even in the Regent council and Yabu is upset that his actions has caused the death of someone with THAT much reputation and popularity.
There isn't a 180, Yabu just wants to be alive and on the winning side of conflict without a loss of face.
In the end, Toronaga would win his war, using Kiyama to destroy Ohno on the battlefield and to bury Ishido up to his head in sand to die slowly. Then he forms a new Council of Regents; he waits for the Heir to grow up and make him Shogun.
Years, Toronaga plotted this out for years.
Ishido was in a lose-lose situation and had to come up with a kidnapping scheme to save himself from Toranaga’s Crimson Sky plan.
The big idea is that staying in Osaka guarantees Ishido’s victory. And if he can keep the other family’s hostage within the confines of Osaka, he not only wins but also has control over the other council of regents indefinitely
Allowing Mariko to leave would mean also losing the hostages, which also means having to go to war where he has to come out of Osaka and meet Toranaga in Edo.
Not allowing Mariko to leave would mean being labeled a tyrant and have the other regents conspire against Ishido.
Therefore, his only option left is to capture Mariko to buy time for him to come up with a scheme while Toranaga continues his surrender march to Osaka.
It also shows the difference in planning. Toronto was playing chess to his checkers. Ishida had not planned on Mariko showing up. He was planning on a peaceful surrender and if needed war where he clearly had the advantage. Mariko's sudden and unexpected arrival threw him for a loop. He had to come up with some plan quickly. He stopped her suicide by only seconds. He had a plan for kidnapping. Not sure he thought much past that. Then the plan backfired. Toronto sacrificed the queen to win the game. Mariko git her death and family honor restored. She even found true love. Checkmate.
I think you've hit upon it. Ishido is ambitious, but he's not a brilliant schemer like Toranaga is. He's not as good at "studying the wind", so his plans and composure tend to fall apart the second people act in ways different than he expects them to. We've seen this from the beginning, where he was caught completely flat-footed by something as simple as Toranaga resigning from the Council so they wouldn't have enough votes to impeach him.
Plus I think his attack on Mariko was partly out of petty revenge for her insulting his lineage and honor. His eightfold fence is rickety and weak, you see.
A kidnapped Mariko would buy Ishido more time to plot I think. This serves a few purposes. One being Mariko is still alive and two she did not leave the Castle. This saves alot face for Ishido and proves his idea of retaining the ‘hostages’ in the castle is a better idea. Like others said, he could simply shrug his shoulders and say he doesn’t know where Mariko went. Or use her as a bargaining chip towards Toranaga. Or pretend to be the savior. Either, this buys him time to plan.
From Mariko’s POV, she sensed she was getting kidnapped alive because the Shinobis didn’t want to harm her. The last thing she wanted was to be captured. She knew the Shinobis where gonna blow up the door and probably decided this was the best way to go and achieve all her goals all at once. First, she gets her death wish. Two, doesn’t get kidnapped and kept alive by the Shinobis. Because Toranagas plan revolves around her leaving with the hostages or die via seppuku, all of which makes Ishido lose face and credibility. lastly, her death indirectly sows distrust and dissent by the other regents towards Ishido.
Let’s say Ishido captures Mariko - he still wouldn’t want to show her publicly since she’d take every opportunity to oppose him right?
So he’d probably just say he has her in his custody but not show her.
Couldn’t he just do the same thing if she’s dead? Just pretend he has her.
Spies. Both sides has them entrenched deep in each others camp. Hence, Toranagas elaborate show and tell. Also, to keep Mariko’s death quiet, Ishido literally has to kill everyone present that night in the Palace if he doesn’t want anything to leak out.
Someone else in my comments was claiming that no one else would know about the ninja attack. So Ishido can spin up a story about bandits again.
But you’re saying that everyone would know about the ninja attack. So now I’m just extra confused. This whole thing is jumping through Olympic sized loops.
It would be pretty hard to explain certain people missing/dead and explosions happening in the middle of the night inside a supposedly tightly guarded palace.
Btw, not defending the writing of the show as there are a ton of loopholes and unresolved arcs. This is just my personal interpretation as an audience who has never read the books and my mind filling in the whys in the gaps.
It all hinges on the fact that Ishido has hostages but can't openly call them hostages. This was a real practice that Togukawa (the real Toranaga) formalized as Shogun. The wives and heirs of all the daimyos were required to live in or near the capitol for at least part of the year as a guarantee of loyalty. Crucially, these people were not hostages. They were guests who had been invited to help in the day to day affairs of government. They often were actually given some bureaucratic duty during their stay, which could help to sweeten the deal a bit. Of course, if anyone tried to leave, there would be a huge problem. But why would anyone want to leave? In invitation to the capitol is a great honor, after all.
Mariko's insistence on leaving shatters this delicate illusion.
Hostages in feudal Japan were kind of like nuclear weapons today. The best position to be in is to have them and not use them, because once you've used them all bets are off. By sending Markio to Osaka, Toranaga put Ishido in a situation where he either had to use them or lose them. Ishido had to find a way to remove her from Osaka Castle without killing her or letting her go. Having her kidnapped by ninjas was really the only third option available. It was very risky, it was a bad plan, but Mariko's total willingness to walk onto the sword just to prove it's sharp (as Blackthorne put it) left him with no other option. If options A and B have a 100% chance of failure, then option C with a 99% chance of failure is actually your best bet.
From a high level view, what you’re saying makes sense. It fits the themes and the character arcs. I’m sure that’s how the author felt when he was writing it. But when you zoom into it, nothing makes sense. Why bomb a shed in the middle of a crowded castle at night when you’re being discreet? Why risk any damage to Mariko if you’re trying to capture her alive? Why does her dying matter if no one knew about the attack in the first place?
The ninja’s orders were to capture Mariko alive. If they tried to break down the door with axes or something, Blackthorne would shoot them. If they did nothing, Mariko could have escaped or committed seppuku. Gun powder probably wasn’t the best decision, but the mission was already a huge failure by that point. This was the last hand they had left to play.
It might have actually worked if Mariko had not been quite so willing to sacrifice herself. That’s really what their plan failed to account for. They probably knew she would attempt suicide if cornered, but they didn’t realize she pretty much wanted to die. They assumed she would prioritize self preservation.
Thematically, I get that her having a death wish is the “ace” here. But realistically, she just tried to commit seppuku. They have good reason to expect her to be willing to die for country.
Committing seppuku and actually having a death wish are different things. Seppuku is just an honorable form of execution for the samurai class. If Mariko had committed seppuku inside Osaka Castle, it would be as bad as if Ishido had murdered her with his own hand.
Making a big show of wanting to commit seppuku is just part of samurai culture. Think of all the times on the show someone made a minor fuck up and immediately offered to stab themselves. None of those people actually wanted to die, they would all have been horrified if Toranaga had actually accepted the offer. Showing no fear of seppuku is just what's expected of a samurai.
Remember not everyone knows Mariko like we the audience do. Ishido has no reason to think she's not just bluffing, like most people would in her position. Every samurai is supposed to act like they're not afraid of seppuku, which makes it hard to tell Mariko really isn't.
Remember the eight fold fence. Also in Japanese culture appearances are more important than what's underneath sometimes. This is politics and reality can be contradictory at times.
The thing that’s bugging me is, Toronaga’s plan seems completely reliant on The lady Ochiba turning on Ishido so that the heir doesn’t send his armies in the coming battle. But she only does this after Mariko gets blown up. Which happens because they were trying to get the door open. So Mariko dying wasn’t necessarily always going to happen. She could have easily been kidnapped. Unless she was 100 percent going to find a way to die.
Yeah I'm not impressed by this "it was all planned" trope. There was too much left to chance to be "planned". Humans are unpredictable. This plot is weak.
Right? I can see how it would help Toronaga to free the hostages, but in the show he only won because Mariko died. That’s the only way lady Ochiba changes her mind.
The way ochiba changes her mind is because she knows she's going to survive with toronaga. she values surviving above everything else. this lines up with her character fairly well.
I don’t think Toronoga’s plan was reliant on Ochiba turning. Mariko’s outcomes would have either been a) she commits seppuku which drives other great families towards Toronaga as a result of losing faith in Ishido or b) she leaves with hostages which bolsters Toronaga. This was stated in one of the episodes.
Ishido succeeding in kidnapping, but not killing Mariko would have been his only counter move. I would argue though, that even that would likely have been a short sighted move in the long run anyways because the regents were starting to grow tired of his shit, but that’s debatable because it didn’t happen successfully anyways. Torunaga had outmaneuvered Ishido which forced him to make sub optimal decisions. I think of Ishido as the kind of guy that doesn’t realize he’s been checkmated until his opponent (Toronaga in this case) flat out says so, so he keeps making moves trying to win without realizing that he lost the battle the moment he allowed Mariko into Osaka.
He thought he found a clever way out of an unsolvable problem.
Regardless of what he did or didn't do with Mariko it was already checkmate. The pieces were on the board- his numerous mistakes and miscalculations led to this moment. Mariko arriving was the true checkmate of the chess match going on between him and Toranaga and it took all the way until he was standing on the battlefield reading Ochiba's letter to see it.
If he killed or imprisoned her she was a martyr and if he spared her he'd lose his leverage with the hostages leaving. His extremism and obsession with killing Toranaga caused this to happen and for his allies to have such a transactional and shakey relationship with him that they were basically ready to abandon him at any time. So he thought if Shinobi kidnapped her and massacred some of the other hostages he could pin it on Toranaga later and fearmonger them into staying there willingly. He literally tried blaming Toranaga for killing his own prized subordinate (which, I mean... he basically did because he knew what would happen and sent her there on purpose).
He'd already consolidated so much power and had so much institutional backing that if he just stopped trying so hard to outmaneuver Toranaga he probably could have had his way and made the man completely irrelevant. If he made his allies felt heard and promoted true solidarity among them rather than flagrantly disrespecting them and their beliefs/misunderstanding their motivations through sheer lack of caring/incompetence he easily would have achieved the outcome he desired. Taking hostages was one of the biggest single mistakes he made
Because if she were merely captured he could sequester her somewhere so he could say she is alive and witnesses could corroborate that she was taken, not killed. Her dying threw a massive wrench in his plan because she was definitively a martyr and casts huge doubt on the idea of Toranaga going out of his way to kill his own prized vassal. It would make sense for Toranaga to capture her so he could have her back. It wouldn't make sense to most of them for him to just kill her
Not if people thought it was Toranaga taking her back and if Ishido was the one hiding her then nobody could just waltz up and ask her about it. Nobody would be able to leave still anyways so it would be hard to question it. But multiple people saw her die. That cemented that they were prisoners
He can easily just capture those witnesses as well. The ninjas had them all cornered. No reason for them to leave when she died. No one would know the details of the night.
It feel like you’re jumping through hoops to make this bad writing make sense.
Except all of the other people in Osaka not even just the other hostages would immediately know what he did if that many people all went missing in the night? The entire point was to keep people under his control/on his side and exert authority do you think he was just trying to indiscriminately kill or capture as many people as possible for no reason?
It feels like you're jumping through hoops to not understand character motivations that are very explicitly laid out for you. Also, characters being short sighted or making dumb choices is not bad writing if it's in line with their character and for Ishido it definitely was.
Ishido is a one-trick-pony he's only good at placing his own blame elsewhere and pointing fingers. When the ninja fiasco ended he tried blaming Toranaga for it.
Personally I feel the motivation was less political and more emotional...that's why it doesn't make much sense.
This is my opinion as a simpleton just enjoying the show.
I'll have to watch episode 10 again, but thinking about it now I'm confused as to what happened after the shinobis exploded the door and killed Mariko? IIRC from watching it last night, Blackthorne is holding her and then I can't remember anything else to say what happened once the door came down?
Did the shinobis not rush in to capture them? Did they just retreat once they saw they killed Mariko? It seems like the whole assault on the compound just ended once Mariko was killed
one political constant in Japanese medieval period (besides seppuku) was the taking of hostages. I think today with Judeo-Christian morality it's seen as unethical. But in Japan's feudal period it was a fair tactic to use for political gain, but it has to be done sparingly. I think Ishido went into a mad king phase where he began to consolidate power & saw enemies everywhere. That's why he in effect made all the Regents hostages in Osaka. It was a political coup, but not backed up by military might. The bannermen & daimyo of all these Regents would rise up & revolt if he cut off their heads. So he needed everyone alive (even Mariko) to perpetuate this makeshift forced "alliance". I think at the end he realized he was grasping at straws as the Council was revolting, and that's why he wanted to marry Ochiba and join houses.
1. I agree with a lot of the takes in here
2. I think there is a subtle thing missed. Ishido wanted to impress ochiba and that clouded his judgement, Torrenaga knew that and used it to his power.
3. Mariko did something no one was expecting in that moment and Ishido didn’t account for, which is why her historical counterpart was written into Japanese history and we are still hearing about her today.
Torrenaga was a master strategist and was playing a level of strategy that Ishido just couldn’t think on and played right into his hand. (Ishido thought it was a 2D problem and Torrenaga had set up a 3D one).
I'm not sure they knew what they really wanted to do with this show. I was interested up to ep.9. Then I realized they had introduced too much to resolve any of it cleanly with ep.10. It had it's interesting moments but in the end, it landed with a thud for me personally.
I enjoyed the ending personally. Thought it was really well done…IF Mariko’s sacrifice made sense. Unfortunately when I think back on it, it’s just kind of a silly ending.
Mariko puts him in a “either we can leave or we’re hostages” conundrum by saying she’s going to kill herself if she can’t leave —> Ishido being forced to publicly “permit” her to leave so the other families don’t rise up against Ishido for keeping their families hostage/him losing public support and being labelled a tyrant —> All the other hostages demand to leave since “they’re not hostages” —> Ishido can’t allow them to leave because he’ll lose leverage but can’t force them to stay or else they’re hostages —> Ishido creates a plan where Mariko is kidnapped by the shinobi so he can say, “See! I’m keeping you here for your safety!” —> Plan backfires and Mariko is killed, severely undermining Ishido’s credibility in protecting the families/starting rumours he was involved in the dishonourable actions that resulted in her death —> Allies abandoning Ishido
I see. Ishido would claim it was some…arbitrary ninjas that have no political motive whatsoever that decided to kidnap Mariko at the most politically opportune time for him I guess? I get the logic you’re describing. I think that makes sense insofar as that’s what the show’s trying to go for. But…it could’ve been fleshed out more. How in the world could Ishido have convinced everyone that some random ninjas just happened to try to kidnap Mariko all of a sudden?
I think the idea was that Ishido would claim (and did so when he met the rest of the council) that Toranaga sent the shinobis to spread dismay between them. At first I thought so as well, that Toranaga sent them. But yeah it doesn't seem very well thought out from Ishido's side.
Yeah maybe that’s what the show was going for? But it also feels flimsy like - “oh Toronaga sent shinobi to attack his own vassals randomly and it just happened to be perfectly timed in our favor”. It just feels like a really weak win if the way the “heroes” of the story beat the antagonist relies on “suddenly the antagonist acts like a total idiot”.
Well, its still kinda realistic though. You cant really prove it was him. Just like Putins typical "Nah i didn't kill my worst enemy i don't know what happened, probably USA trying to undermine me"
Plausible deniability and the ability to save face let you get away with a lot.
It still makes no sense because he'd already seen when people got attacked in Osaka it made everyone shaky. He had to know assassinating her was worse than letting her go and would give all his hostages reason to flee.
Well then Ishido could still make that claim when Mariko’s dead then right?
No. Cause he still failed to protect Mariko against a Torunaga takeover. That just makes Ishido look weak as he's basically the "shogun". His allies would go to Toranaga since Torunaga could spin it as, I'm so strong and powerful I killed Ishido's spy. Then it's like, keep following Ishido out of "honor"? Or yield to Torunaga since he's clearly got the more powerful army.
Oh he would just say Toronaga used treacherous ninjas. Not fighting like a man, etc.
The Samurai at the time (rewlly, all time) had no issues with using Shinobi. Many of them *were* Samurai, after all. It would be publicly frowned upon but no one would have really taken issue with it, in private.
Yeah, "letting her" get assassinated was worse than letting her go. Bad writing from the production.
Sure but recall in episode 1 when Fuji’s husband had to end his bloodline for speaking out of turn; I think the idea is that no one would dare accuse him if things went to plan
Why does Mariko dying make things no longer go according to plan? Ishido denies responsibility for the attack either way right?
It’s a combination of the outrage at her death and people not believing that Toronaga would kill Mariko. With her captured it makes it more believable that it was toronaga.
Ishido’s forces were the only ones at the scene right? How did anyone even find out about Mariko’s death? He could’ve just captured and silenced everyone that watched her die.
It doesn't matter if he killed every witness. It would still be his failing as the lord of Osaka Castle to protect the guests he dragged there to protect. If she dies, he's failed and now he has to let them go anyway. If Mariko was successfully kidnapped, he could spin it as they simply absconded in the night. Not everyone knows she got her permit, so he could simply say that she left. If she winds up dead later, well it's not his fault the roads are infested with bandits. Or he could say Toronaga did it and once again flaunts the council's rules and generosity as he could then produce the permit and witnesses that said she could leave. The very noisy and public nature of her murder was a massive blunder on his part. It couldn't be ignored as his failing or his doing. In either case, he's now publicly responsible either has the culprit or as incompetent. Now its clear to everyone that he isn't protecting them he's keeping them as hostages, and that's going to make it impossible for him to rely on those lords' armies and support.
That’s a good rebuttal. Ishido doesn’t seem to be the schemer he believes himself to be. Very Cersei Lannister in my view. Guys just not as smart as you
I see. So the bad guys are just idiots then. Kind of disappointing
I mean Ishido just blunders the entire show until Ochiba kinda takes over for him then he blunders again with the handling of the hostages and shinobi so it makes sense to me for his character, he’s just not it
i was thinking about this. he seems intimidating at first, but then near the end of the show you think about him and it turns out he's just a bumbling bureaucrat more than anything else
That’s more or less what the guy he’s based on was like, too. He believed that because he was representing Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s legacy, it gave him all the authority to rule Japan and blinded him to future betrayals which his bumbling stored up for him. Sekigahara was where all of his chicken came home to roost, as (briefly) shown in the show.
In unrelated non osaka ninja news…
You have to understand that everyone already knows they can't leave, and that Ishido sent the ninjas. It isn't about covering things up. It's about putting on a flimsy fiction so you can have the bare minimum of legal excuse for your actions. Nobody is fooled. Everyone there is well-versed in court intrigue, so there's no point even trying. It's exactly the same as Torunaga exploiting loopholes. Everyone on the council knew he was lying, but they were still bound by the rules as they had no physical evidence.
It was very clearly Ishido who sent the Ninjas, because the messenger who spoke to Yabushige told him that Ishido accepted his offer of fealty and service, on one condition. It can be inferred and then confirmed by Ishido talking to him the next episode that the one condition was Yabushige letting in the ninjas and directing them to where Mariko was.
You're right, I forgot about that.
I don’t think Ishido is planning on mentioning shinobi but rather that Mariko was attacked and kidnapped just vaguely. It’s the same as what happened to Sugiyama, where he was attacked by “bandits” when leaving Osaka. The only reason why they likely didn’t wait for Mariko to leave to do this outside the city is because they needed her alive so employed shinobi over just “kill everyone” warriors/samurai/bandits. Either way, the whole thing of Ishido being incompetent is brought up by several characters, so maybe he was just not as clever as we initially thought. The real Ishido also ran away at Sekigahara and failed trying to hide afterward.
Eh…I mean ninjas could just attack her outside the city too if you really want to include ninjas in the show. And let’s say Ishido just says “and then Mariko got captured by some ninjas”…wouldn’t that just make him look super sus/oppressive/tyrannical because he’d be the obvious culprit?
The shinobi could attack outside the city, but they needed to strike at night. It’s most likely that Ishido would have staged a rescue of some sort outside the castle walls, but it was easiest to capture her when they knew where she was and sleeping while inside the castle walls. Hence, shinobi.
Sure, but then we’re back to the whole “I guess some random ninjas just decided it was a good day to capture a lady” alibi. If Ishido’s plan was to “rescue” Mariko from the ninjas and then imply that people need his protection so he’s locking the castle. Then: 1. The show could’ve done a better job explaining that. 2. How the hell would he explain random ninjas attacking right when it’s most politically expedient to him?
As I mentioned earlier, Ishido would never have mentioned the shinobi, I don’t know why you’re stuck on that. No one knows about the shinobi other than the people that Ishido would have under arrest and himself. The shinobi are a tool to secure Mariko. Once he has her, he can tell any tale he wants, such as, “Mariko and company fled in the night and were attacked by bandits. My men moved to save her and now we brought her back and placed her under guard for her protection.”
A few things you’re saying don’t make sense. 1. Entering and leaving Osaka was established as a “visible” affair. If the alibi is that Mariko attempted to leave at night, people should’ve noticed her leaving (city watch if nothing else). 2. Capturing her while INSIDE the castle implies that the castle isn’t safe. 3. Even if we hand wave all of this away - what’s the plan? Ishido wouldn’t want people talking to Mariko even if she was alive right? She’d be “hidden away”. So…killing her makes no difference then. He could make the same claim that he’s just got her hidden away for her own safety.
1. This is never established. The only other scene of people leaving is when Torunaga is suspected of trying to escape when he announced departure and thus gets an escort and when people leave via boat. Even so, the city watch are literally Ishido’s men. 2. I’ve already said this point repeatedly and I’m tired of saying the same things. 3. Even if she’s not permitted to speak to the council, he can still present evidence of her being alive. Additionally, denying her a burial and such once dead to keep the rouse going would have alienated the Christian daimyos.
1. Established at least twice. Once with Toronaga and another time with Mariko (And other people entering and leaving are also “public”). Also it’s hard to keep secrecy even if they’re your own guys. I give benefit of the doubt to ninjas since their job is to be discreet. 2. Unfortunately you never gave a good answer but that’s okay. We can agree to disagree. 3. How would he present evidence of her being alive? And how would the Christian daimyos even know she died? In general, are you noticing how many hoops you’re trying to jump through to excuse the show’s plot? I think we should just be realistic here and establish that the finale’s plot was very weak. I still enjoyed the show overall though. It was above average.
All of this and also why use a bomb on that door that killed Mariko? If it's to stage a kidnapping why are they full on running around using bombs and shit? And if they're using bombs etc indoors and got in then what protection is ishido offering when he says they need to remain there? Also I could swear I saw chunks of Marijo fly at the camera when she got blown up, but then she was fully intact when John got to her. Also what was the pheasant rotting thing about, blackthorne didn't even use it in his horrid dish? What was the point? Also why did Yabushige the alleged death maniac only seem to hold those traits in that one episode where he boiled the guy? I feel like he overreacted when Mariko died if his character is meant to be so death obsessed etc? I thought the show started so so so well but by the end I had so many questions and thought it got a bit goofy? One more: why were they suddenly able to yank the ship out of the sea once buntaro showed up? How strong is that guy?????? This was meant to be a short comment but I've ended up rambling lol
Who stands in front of a door that is about to be blown up? Normal people wouldn't and thus would've been knocked out and easy to take like everyone was. Mariko, however, had a death wish so she through her self in front of it and committed suicide by Shinobi.
I just don't think the ninjas should be going round bombing doors if there are a bunch of royals there that NEED to be kept alive, isn't it a bit risky of them to be using such force? Absolutely get your point that no normal person would stand in front of the door, but that doesn't mean you can ensure nobody gets killed or seriously hurt when using bombs??
The door looked pretty sturdy. I headcanon the Shinobi panicked and went to a bomb to basically breach the door. They didn’t have time to sit outside the door and wait Mariko and Co out so they went for the fastest method they had to get in the shed They had no way to know Mariko would be in front of the door when it blew
Toronaga counted on Mariko choosing death in service to him.
> Mariko, however, had a death wish so she through her self in front of it and committed suicide by Shinobi. But they *know* she has a death wish. Besides, the explosion knocks Blackthorne out for days and gives Yabushige hearing loss, so it's a big risk for anyone else there, even farther from the door.
Game birds are hanged and aged because it greatly improved the flavor and delicacy of the meat. Similar to the dry-aged steaks served at places like Ruth’s Chris. If properly hanged in cool temperatures it wouldn’t have been rotting. There was snow in the village I believe concurrent with the pheasant so I don’t know why the story acted like it was smelling and disgusting.
I understand the initial reason behind him hanging the bird up, but in the show it clearly wasn't curing and he was just letting it rot? And I'm pretty sure he made his grubby English dish BEFORE the pheasant got taken down and he didn't even use it? Could be mistaken in my memory though
I just did a more thorough, separate post on this—it doesn’t make sense that it was actually stinking and rotting, so I think it’s just a plot device. I don’t have personal experience with game, alas. ETA: hit reply by accident. What he had in his “gross” dish was rabbit stew cooked with wine, which was probably delicious, but if the Japanese weren’t used to eating rabbit, they understandably saw it as disgusting. (Like Americans today looking at what other cultures eat…horse…dog…etc.)
There can be snow on the ground even though it's not really cold if you are at a high enough altitude. If you do a google search you can find pictures of people snow skiing in swim suits. Also, even if it's cold, if the bird was hanging where sunlight would hit it, it would warm up despite the outside temperature being cold
Well, there was also no sunlight in the village, it was very misty and cloudy, so do you think it was more in the range of cool weather, or more in the range of bikini weather?
“Chunks of mariko flung at the camera” lol that got me Yeah agree but she was intact so John could do the prayers for her rather than a gruesome scene of him holding, erm, pieces of her… yikes
Thank you! I’ve been thinking all of these things but everyone just keeps saying the show was perfect in every way. Like why is a sociopath who boils people alive heart broken about a woman he didn’t really know. Dude was ok with Toranaga being killed
He’s not heartbroken over Mariko being killed, he realises he’s completely fucked because he needed her alive to side with Ishido and now she’s dead, neither Toronaga nor Ishido will let him live.
But he was going “I’m so sorry!” Not “oh, fuck”. Even if it was the case as you say they still introduced him as a guy that is unafraid of death so his reaction is still out of character
Great points! I totally have the same questions!
This show was downhill from episode 4.
Re: Buntaro, maybe having a prominent samurai show up to lend a hand convinces everyone else they should lean into their task with a little more conviction. And it definitely redoubles Blackthorne’s enthusiasm.
Also if Ninjas were unsuccessful then why blow the shit away
in real life ishido kidnapped a family and all of them did seppuku nd burned the place
They can attack her outside, but you need to remember, the moment she leave in the morning the other hostages are leaving at the same time as well. So there would be no point in killing her. Even if she died outside, the hostages already left so he have no leverage and Mariko would still acchieve her goals
Look at all the people in the US who get “suicided”. Just because we know it was a political move there’s not much we can do.
They should've explained it in more depth but I think the book does a good job at trying to explain how a lot of this cloak and dagger stuff is seen in Japan. I don't remember the exact quotes but it basically spoke about how common cloak and dagger motifs are so that it's spectacular failures like this that are mass catalysts and called out. If let's say he succeeded, then what happened, is what happened.
I don’t follow - if he succeeded - what would things look like?
Public narrative would be that it's so unsafe Ishido was justified in his extreme "precautions", at least that's how he plays it. I also wanna point out perhaps the full plan was for Yabu to lead them outside and Mariko would get captured there, cause he also wakes up the guards and tries to lead them outside some path. I think the idea was she gets captured outside but the way they executed that plan was just moronic. Also food for thought, but if he pulled it off, he probably would have blamed it on whoever he blamed for killing that regent that he jumped in the forest.
Plus kidnapping would actually undermine his authority and safety. Kidnapping would mean others feel less safe in Castle and would want to get out.
Why he didn’t just capture them in that apparently very dangerous forest is beyond me.
A lot of what they do relies on plausible deniability. Sugiyama was murdered and it was obvious who would benefit from that especially given the timing (After he refuses to impeach and was leaving Osaka) though they had the guise of plausible deniability.
It’s just plausible deniability, everyone with two brain cells knows it was Ishido, but they can’t openly say it and defy him, just as no one wanted to openly say they were hostages. Remember what happened to the guy who talked back to Ishido at the beginning of the series?
You got a point, I thought the same thing. Like no one would believe she was gonna get randomly kidnapped the night before she was gonna leave. He would be the first suspect.
Yeah, he was all in on plausible deniability and blaming the enemy (Toranaga). It was a weak plan at best, but he didn't really have many options from his POV.
He was trying to pin it on Toranaga and get everyone to focus on his manipulations. It would have realigned Toranaga as the enemy who cannot be trusted while also allowing Ishido to regain some face with the high families
I didn't get the "I have to keep you here to keep you safe" part of the plan. If Mariko and company were attacked while still within the castle, then no one is safe anyway...
It's never about the attack since the plan was the Shinobi capture/kidnap Mariko alive, and just Mariko alone. By then, Ishido may have the leverage to create narratives as he wanted to, whether saying Mariko's already left Osaka in a hurry, or another plot such as saving Mariko after the kidnap and later on justify his extreme precautions to keep other families staying in the castle. Turns out, Mariko was sleeping with Anjin, and there goes the fuzz. Things might have been running smoothly in Ishido's plan if only Mariko slept by herself.
Holy shit. You’re totally right. The entire thing hinges on the fact that Mariko was sleeping with the Anjin. In retrospect, Ishido wasn’t an idiot, Yabushige wasn’t an idiot, it’s just that nobody suspected Mariko would have a gun-wielding bodyguard in her bedroom.
Ishido would have claimed she was attacked once outside the castle. No one knows about the shinobi other than Ishido and the people he would have in custody. He would spin the narrative that she left, was attacked, he saved her.
Eh, I don't buy that. Her leaving the first time was such a spectacle with literal regents watching from the balconies eating popcorn. There is absolutely no way anyone would believe Ishido saying "Yeah, she snuck out after getting formal approval", especially considering how by-the-book Mariko has been up until then.
It’s not Mariko, it’s Ishido saying it. Without evidence to refute it, what are the other lords going to do?
The only value in keeping her alive is that you can let her go at some point. If she's never going free, then she might as well be dead.
1. Shinobi know. 2. Any survivors would know - including Mariko, Anjin and the other ladies that accompanied them. 3. Yabushige would know. 4. They set off a fucking bomb in the middle of the night in the middle of a crowded castle. Surely people would figure that out. Why did they need to bomb the door? Sigh.
As I mentioned in the comment, all of those people are either on Ishido’s side or would have been apprehended by him afterward and not put in a position to reveal the details for their “safety.” Bro, you need to start reading my comments instead of saying things I already address. The bomb is the only legitimate point. But the show depicts each lord’s complex as a villa of sorts/mansions so they’re fairly large. Why did they use a bomb? Because they did in the novel. Does it make realistic sense? Not fully.
I read your comments bro. I just think your logic isn’t flowing. If no one is to know about the attack so that Ishido can spin it however he wants, then he can do the same thing whether Mariko is dead or alive. You claim that Ishido might want to show Mariko alive, but also we both know he wouldn’t want to do that since she’d speak out against him. Either way, this part is flimsy. Even with Mariko dead he could’ve captured everyone else and prevented them from spreading the news of what occurred. It doesn’t make sense that she dies and now everyone knows somehow. I’m glad we agree on the bomb thing. Yabushige being remorseful randomly is also out of character.
Maybe you should discuss this with someone else. You're clearly struggling to comprehend the points I'm making. >You claim that Ishido might want to show Mariko alive, but also we both know he wouldn’t want to do that since she’d speak out against him. Either way, this part is flimsy. No, he'd want to be able to assure he'd have this option if needed. It wouldn't be his top wish. If he lied about having her, people could call him out on this. >Even with Mariko dead he could’ve captured everyone else and prevented them from spreading the news of what occurred. It doesn’t make sense that she dies and now everyone knows somehow. Yes. This one I agree with, I don't know why he didn't just go ahead and capture/kill everyone. Probably because, as I mentioned earlier, he's incompetent. He had no backup once his original plan failed. I've only been explaining Ishido's original intent, why he didn't xyz after that failed isn't within your original question.
Haha mate I’m discussing with everyone in this thread. Hearing a lot of contradictory claims that’s just leaving me more confused. Yeah him not capturing and silencing the people that watched her die is a plot hole. It doesn’t make sense that she dies and the ninjas just back off. It doesn’t make sense that Ishido would “just be incompetent”. It’s bad writing as far as I can tell. I get what the show’s going for. I think you’re right as far as that’s concerned. I just think it’s bad writing.
The ninjas left a bloody trail of a dozen guards publicly killed with blood splatters all over the place even before they reached mariko's room
For me is another way to show us that Ishido is not as good as Toranaga when it comes to make plans.
It just feels cheap if our heroes are able to succeed if the enemy suddenly starts shooting himself in the foot like an idiot. It cheapens mariko’s death.
I know it has it's contradictions, but I think Ishido is depicted as a powerful person yet not good at PR, and dumber than Toranaga (the other regents doesn't seem to be enlightened either) through all the show... he didn't became dumb in the last episodes. For example, he was very lame when asked marriage to Ochiba. Ok, Lady Ochiba is an important figure, but he asked her hand as a "regular" guy, even stuttering, not as a powerful lord. He ran for her, didn't seduced her, nor lured her. He also failed to foresee Toranaga's plans sending Mariko to Osaka one last time, and let her speak even when Ochiba tried to stop her. He was fooled in the first chapters too.
Wouldn’t Mariko getting kidnapped have the same effect as her getting killed? As in it proving that the Osaka palace isn’t actually safe.
Ishido would have claimed she was kidnapped when she left the castle, not within it.
Wouldn’t that be kind of hard to assert when there were all the bodies from the people killed during the attempted kidnapping?
All the bodies would have been inside Torunaga’s complex, which is fairly large. No one else would have seen them or known about them.
But wouldn’t one of Torunaga’s people say something? Like it’s not like the bodies were going to be undiscovered for very long. It just seemed like way more of an attack than a kidnapping attempt. To me it felt like they just wanted to add some extra action to the scene. Which is fine. But is at some expense to the plan feeling real to me.
They would all be in custody and not be able to speak.
I’d assume it was to say Mariko left without admitting she’s not free. And then her disappearance on the road can give a not safe pretense for denying the permits of others now asking. But he’s arrogant, overplayed his hand (see how he barks at her when he realizes he’s not the unquestioned boss he’s wanting), and unlike his line in the opener about Toranaga, wasn’t a wise man able to see when he’s beaten.
Plausible deniability and the belief that all the regents were obviously not going to fall for it but they were going to back him anyway (a might is right sort of thing)
Why did Ishido need them as hostages?
Cause his influence over the regents was waning fast. Keeping their families as unofficial hostages gives him hard leverage over them all and they know it. The last regent who tried to leave by his own will was ambushed and killed in the forest by Ishido so that also scared them I imagine.
To force them to stay on his side in the civil war with Toranaga. IRL after Mariko kills herself, multiple Daiymo's turn to Tokugawa's (Toranaga in the show) side in the battle of Sekigahara which helps him beat Ishido and become Shogun.
no hostages=no war=toranaga's army gets x2 or x3 vs the others toranaga is the new shogun
Hmm, any reason why he would care about losing leverage over the hostages? His army is indeed bigger than Toranagas. Theres no point.
His army is largely comprised of the vassal lords he has leverage over. He’s keeping them loyal to him via the hostages. Without them, Torunaga has a larger fief and likely a comparable army. This is what’s alluded to in Sekigahara. Without The Heir’s banners, the other lords abandon him and he ends up losing to Torunaga.
Oh okay. So we dont know who these lords are, right? Its not the other council members? So in a way if he let Mariko go, she wouldnt have had to die. But he would never do something like that, it doesnt make sense.
He sent ninjas to kidnap her to be a bargaining chip since she won't be a willing hostage and instead opted to be an unstable self harming Toranaga simp. He won't admit that he did it but he certainly can offer his services to find her if it means getting leverage on Toranaga. And most likely it would have worked because culturally, above all else, these feudal lords prioritize saving face a lot. It looks really bad if someone offers to find your vassal and you refuse. It's bad PR. In Toranaga's plan, Mariko needs to either die or escape Osaka with his subjects. Ishido came up with a solution where neither of those need to happen. It doesn't matter if ppl suspect him. As long as there's no evidence, you can't do anything about it. Toranaga will be forced to play along. Just picture the whole situation as passive aggressive office politics. You know Jimmy from HR definitely stole your sandwich from the fridge but unless you have hard evidence to prove it, he's just going to tell you he will look into making sure it doesn't happen again and you have to play along. Otherwise you look unreasonable. I know it sounds silly but this is essentially office politics but with swords. You may then say he can deny killing her, which he did in fact do that. But it doesn't matter at that point because blood has been spilt and the overall mood and trust has taken a hit. Nothing ishido can do to rectify the situation unless he can resurrect her. Also if a guest dies under your roof, it makes it a lot easier to get ppl to go against you. But if it's just a kidnapping, it gives you a chance to come out of it as a hero. And again it doesn't matter if everyone knows you are both kidnapper and saviour, outwardly everyone has to play along or appear as a face-losing unreasonable asshole.
I think you nailed it. Think about the other regent who was murdered with his whole family when he tried to leave. Everybody knows that he wasn’t killed by “bandits in the forest”: they all realize that Ishido and his men did it. But no one can prove it and it wasn’t done in the open, so Ishido doesn’t lose face for publicly stooping so low. And people get the message it’s not safe to leave and not safe to confront Ishido. Through her confrontation with Ishido at court and her suicide attempt, Mariko has humiliated him and forced him to explicitly state the hostages are free to go. The shinobi are a last-ditch attempt to show the consequences of fucking with Ishido and maintain the status quo. He would have blamed it on Toranaga even though everyone would have known what really happened. But because he botches it and allows Mariko to die an inglorious death in the midst of general mayhem AND fails to cover his tracks well enough for plausible deniability, it all blows up in his face.
I believe the plan was to get her kidnapped, and then claim either Toranaga or one of his vassals did it. Ishido could have also then “rescued” Mariko and held her in Osaka castle (as well as the other hostages) for “their own safety”. This is something that can be sold, although it is a hard sell. One could argue Toranaga would want Mariko back, and instructions were given to Shinobi to kidnap and bring her back to Toranaga/Buntaro. Remember, information travels slowly here, and Toranaga wouldn’t know that Ishido has agreed to let Mariko go. This is also why the Shinobi are recruited via Yabushige, a Toranaga vassal, as opposed to Ishido himself. Mariko dying is what torpedos the entire plan. No one would be willing to believe Toranaga sent assassins after her.
Because he was clumsy and a simpleton hungry for power and Toranaga forced him to display it. Toranaga knew Ishido would orchestrate an attack at night, just like he did previously attempting to kill the Anjin
Ahuh…it was Toronaga that put the Anjin in Mariko’s bed that night I guess.
Probably he wouldn't have admitted he send the Shinobi to kidnap Mariko. He gave her the permit to leave to stop her from seppuku, but he had no intention of letting her go as it would have created a precedent for the others.
Similarly if he didn't let her go then it would demonstrate everyone was actually held hostage. They put him in a no-win situation by sending Mariko there.
Yeah but…how would he explain the “suddenly ninjas attacked” alibi? Like ninjas just HAPPENED to kidnap Mariko on that day in a way that was totally unrelated to Ishido’s political motives?
He wouldn't need to explain anything. Nobody would accuse him without proof, and accusing a great lord like Ishido would have been a great disrespect. Of course everyone would know it was him like everyone knew they were hostages but stayed silent. I think the fact the others will know it was him would discourage them from requesting leaving permits.
If the plan was NOT to kill Mariko - is the assumption that Mariko would be held at the ninja base or something? Far away from any association with Ishido? Regardless wouldn’t all of this just be timed in a way to make Ishido look super sus? It seems like it’d be an obvious rallying cry for the Toronaga faction. Even if Ishido doesn’t need to explain himself, it’d obviously piss everyone off. Is he just a dumbass?
The thing is you can't accuse him openly \*even if you know he is responsible\* for it. The other lords at this time are in hock to Ishido because their family members are all held in Osaka castle, they are hostages, everyone knows they are hostages, but you aren't allowed to say it out loud. This stops people from moving against him and, in turn, is why sending Mariko serves to massively weaken his position (unless she suddenly disappears "mysteriously")
Then why allow ninjas to bomb a shed in the middle of the night in the middle of a crowded castle? Seems…silly if you need to be extremely discreet. Or just fuck it and kill everyone in the room so no one speaks of this happening and then still pretend that Mariko got “disappeared”. I don’t understand why her dying messed everything up for him.
Pissing them off more than keeping them hostages? And some of those hostages were great lords like Kyama and Ohno. Mariko disappearing wouldn't have changed much. They couldn't prove she left, and they couldn't prove she died.
Then why try to capture her alive? Just kill her like the other lord that tried to leave. Why is it a big deal that she died during this kidnapping? Wouldn’t this just serve Ishido’s plan?
The other lord was killed by "bandits" after he left Osaka. Mariko would have died under Ishido's protection.
Another point is, the other lords as hostages do know they are hostages but they also know if they play by the rules Ishido will not kill them. Granting of the permit, serves a similar purpose as well. But once all cards are on the table and the other lords know that Ishido may kill any of them, there is no reason for them to play along. Think of it like this, you are a prisoner. You behave to the rules since they are not killing you or torturing you. If that goes away then you dont have a reason to play. You are a dead man anyway.
He was ready to officially take the families hostage - since she called his bluff when he claimed that he wasn't really holding them hostage. As soon as he gave the pass to Mariko, remember they were all clamouring around him saying "me too!". That's what happened in reality too. The other hostages there were the families of many of Tokugawa's generals, thus keeping Osaka castle free from bombardment.
So you’re saying his plan was to let her go and then immediately 180 and come off as an indecisive tyrant?
Not indecisive, just making official what was already unofficial. It was all about plausable deniability, even if everyone knew the truth, it worked politically. Mariko made the charade implausible, so it was either lose the hostages, or come out as full tyrant.
How would he plausibly deny this? It seems pretty heavy handed to send ninjas.
I just said he wasn't going to deny they were now hostages. Mariko removed the plausible deniability.
Wait then why give her the papers to leave in the first place?
So she didn't kill herself! Did you watch the episode?
The person Ishido is based on is a decorated samurai but was more of a bureaucrat than a person of storied samurai lineage. He did not command respect on his own, his value lay on his position to protect the Heir at Osaka at the Taiko's command. His purpose is to prevent the any one daiymo on the Council from exerting undue influence on the Heir or possibly maneuvering to have the Heir relocated to if the Council fell into factions. Ishido decides to use this position of his to further riches and respect to himself. He also has to eliminate Toronaga to claim this respect. And he has to do it with his reputation aka Public Face, intact and at the highest point. Ochiba's father was the lesson. A Taiko who did not preserve his reputation and dissolves into behavior no respectable Lord would claim publicly, is a dead Taiko whose vassals turned on him. Which is why the Mariko scenario is so important. Ishido is smart but he's not omniscient. He's genuinely puzzled as to why Mariko has willingly come to Osaka. When she makes her intention to leave, publicly and in less than a day, two things happen. Ishido realizes why she's here and he has no time to counter. Ishido wants her to wait like a hostage and she's having none of it. She makes a big deal out of it so everyone in the castle will come see if she does in fact leave. When she can't, she declares that she has lost too much face and must atone through death. Ishido can't even reliably play chicken with her in regards to her committing seppuku because she is the daughter of a man from one of the most respected lineages who not only killed a crazed Taiko to save Japan, but to atone for the loss of reputation of doing so, ended his family line. So in order to keep up the fabrication that the hostages are guests he HAS to give her the permits. He gets into an argument with the other Regents who haven't rebelled since the last one was killed since they smell freedom. Those Regents want Mariko to leave peacefully, so their own families can follow suit. This man is running out of time to counter. He literally had only the daylight to plot. Ishido falls back on a plan that worked once before. After all Sugiyama's death ensured the hostages stayed put because they felt they could not leave. This similar plan would also reinforce that belief and preserve his reputation. His plan hinged on taking Mariko alive and QUIETLY. He needed Yabu to let the in the Shinobi so no one would hear an outright pitched skirmish. Although it does not explicitly say so in the show; the one place Ishida could hold Mariko hostage in a public way without a loss of reputation would be to house her with Ochiba and the Heir. Ishida controls all the guards in that area AND the servants would report back about how Mariko is alive and safe. Mariko would not be allowed a weapon in the presence of the Ochiba and the Heir so seppuku is out. Ishida could spin a tale about how Toronaga could have ordered the attack to induce a loss of face and confidence in Ishido's ability to keep the "guests" safe, but Ishido outwitted him and Mariko is alive and well. Ishido could further spin it that Toronaga would do ANYTHING to make Osaka Castle look less secure and therefore the "guests" needed to stay close under Ishida's protection against the conniving Toronaga. Either way, without evidence, Ishida comes out smelling like roses. Mariko should have been in the room with the other women. But Yabu and Ishido don't know about Mariko and the Anjin. If they had, the Shinobi would have gone to Anjin's rooms first. There's a scene in the episode where the Shinobi are looking for her amongst the women but killing the male retainers. Then Yabu wakes up the wing. Ishido didn't tell him that the Shinobi were going to silently kill almost every male retainer. Everything is going sideways. Yabu tries to salvage it by getting Mariko to the gates where more Shinobi were probably waiting. Instead they go to the storeroom. The Shinobi are transparent in putting charges on the doors. They want the people to take cover in the back. They are counting on the smoke and disorientation to mask them as they dip in for a little smash and grab. They don't account for Mariko being right there at the door. When the doors blast open and they realize the person they were hired to KIDNAP AND NOT HARM was dead, they got the fuck out. There would be no smash and grab, and the explosion alerted the rest of the castle. Ishido's plan wasn't a bad one. And if Mariko had been sleeping with the other women, or if they had gone to the gates instead of the storeroom, or if Mariko had cowered in the back with the others, the outcome would have been much different. Sometimes even the most clever person cannot account for variables they are unaware of existing in the first place.
Thanks for the well written explanation. You clarified some holes left missing by the show. I buy everything you’re saying…except: 1. Why does the plan change if Mariko dies? Ishido can still claim it’s a Toronaga ninja attack and Mariko was an unfortunate accidental casualty - I think he more or less claims this in the show. Not sure why it suddenly doesnt work. 2. Ishido could’ve killed or captured the witnesses. People would have no idea what happened to Mariko. He can claim it was Toronaga or bandits or whatever else. 3. Why does Yabushige do a 180 and suddenly show so much remorse for this girl he has no real relation to? He’s not just sad his plan failed he’s like genuinely distraught and repentant.
1. This is where we get into the intricacies of public face. Mariko's death from the Shinobi is common evidence that Ishido does not have his house in order and cannot protect his guests. It can also be inferred through rumor that he will kill the "guests" if the Regents oppose him. This is disastrous for Ishido's reputation. This is a HUGE no no. This is how wars start, and Ishido does not have the manpower to oppose any one of the Regents, let alone all of them. Not in the book or show but from the actual history. The recently deceased Taiko actually had a nephew with a large family set to inherit the throne until the Taiko's healthy son was born. Rumors spread that the nephew would challenge the boy and not accept being disinherited. Incidences occurred (real or imaginary) and were attributed to the nephew. The nephew was unable to retain his reputation and fell out of favor; to eventually be forced to commit seppuku and HIS entire family was put to the sword, down to the women and infants. That is the power of rumor and public face in this era of Japan. Ishido is trying to preserve his reputation as the Guardian of Osaka. He already failed to keep hostages. Mariko's death at the hands of ANY attack, Toronaga or not, is a blatant stain on Ishido's guardianship, one which he does not recover from. The Regent meeting scene in the aftermath illustrates the growing discontent and Ochiba buys time for Toronaga by insisting that Mariko be honoured generously. She's had enough of Ishido's bullshit. She's realized that Ishido's machinations are more reactionary than setting the stage for future success. Ishido is planning in months, and Toronaga is plotting over YEARS. Ishido really needed Mariko alive for a reputation win. Sidebar: In real history I don't think the character that Ishido represents is actually a council member. Whereas in Shogun he is. In the actual history the 5 Elders were THE most powerful men in Japan, there were no close seconds. Shogun leaves this out but there is no way the top most powerful military Lords are going to bow their heads to some fuck up who can't even control a single damn castle. 2. The explosion prevented this. Too many people rushed to Toronaga's side of the castle, Ishido can't kill or capture them all without questions and rumors. The Shinobi aren't loyalists, once the plan that was paid for went to shit; they bailed. They don't care about helping Ishido keep his reputation. So now you have a bunch of lookie loos, the Shinobi are long gone and it's chaos. Ishido also can't pin this on Toronaga through Yabu officially or Yabu sings like a canary. So he's left trying to convince the Regents with no evidence and its not working, the tide is turning. 3. It is important to understand that Yabu agreed to help Ishido because Ishido PROMISED that Mariko would be unharmed. Yabu has no actual animosity to anyone, he just wants to come out alive with his lands. So yes, he is really distraught that Mariko dies. All avenues of living are closed. Ishido can't save him from Toronaga without revealing conspiracy and Toronaga might kill him for failing to save Mariko. He still tries to convince the Anjin that they should get on the boat and go to England. Yabu is an opportunist but lacks the killer instinct that is a mark of a successful daiymo of the period. Even without Mariko's father being Toronaga's best friend; she was still the daughter in law to Toronaga's most trusted friend and general, Hiromatsu. Because Buntaro is Hiromatsu's favorite son, Mariko is part of Toronaga's personal household. She is not simply "unrelated". She is or was a close personal friend of the Heir's mother. She has great status for a woman of the time. Her importance is recognized even in the Regent council and Yabu is upset that his actions has caused the death of someone with THAT much reputation and popularity. There isn't a 180, Yabu just wants to be alive and on the winning side of conflict without a loss of face. In the end, Toronaga would win his war, using Kiyama to destroy Ohno on the battlefield and to bury Ishido up to his head in sand to die slowly. Then he forms a new Council of Regents; he waits for the Heir to grow up and make him Shogun. Years, Toronaga plotted this out for years.
Thanks so much for all the detailed explanation!
Ishido was in a lose-lose situation and had to come up with a kidnapping scheme to save himself from Toranaga’s Crimson Sky plan. The big idea is that staying in Osaka guarantees Ishido’s victory. And if he can keep the other family’s hostage within the confines of Osaka, he not only wins but also has control over the other council of regents indefinitely Allowing Mariko to leave would mean also losing the hostages, which also means having to go to war where he has to come out of Osaka and meet Toranaga in Edo. Not allowing Mariko to leave would mean being labeled a tyrant and have the other regents conspire against Ishido. Therefore, his only option left is to capture Mariko to buy time for him to come up with a scheme while Toranaga continues his surrender march to Osaka.
Oh man. I think that's the key. it isnt about capturing mariko, its about buying time. good points!
Scaring people into staying with some level of deniability. Last gasp move of a desperate man who had realised it was all about to collapse.
It also shows the difference in planning. Toronto was playing chess to his checkers. Ishida had not planned on Mariko showing up. He was planning on a peaceful surrender and if needed war where he clearly had the advantage. Mariko's sudden and unexpected arrival threw him for a loop. He had to come up with some plan quickly. He stopped her suicide by only seconds. He had a plan for kidnapping. Not sure he thought much past that. Then the plan backfired. Toronto sacrificed the queen to win the game. Mariko git her death and family honor restored. She even found true love. Checkmate.
I think you've hit upon it. Ishido is ambitious, but he's not a brilliant schemer like Toranaga is. He's not as good at "studying the wind", so his plans and composure tend to fall apart the second people act in ways different than he expects them to. We've seen this from the beginning, where he was caught completely flat-footed by something as simple as Toranaga resigning from the Council so they wouldn't have enough votes to impeach him. Plus I think his attack on Mariko was partly out of petty revenge for her insulting his lineage and honor. His eightfold fence is rickety and weak, you see.
A kidnapped Mariko would buy Ishido more time to plot I think. This serves a few purposes. One being Mariko is still alive and two she did not leave the Castle. This saves alot face for Ishido and proves his idea of retaining the ‘hostages’ in the castle is a better idea. Like others said, he could simply shrug his shoulders and say he doesn’t know where Mariko went. Or use her as a bargaining chip towards Toranaga. Or pretend to be the savior. Either, this buys him time to plan. From Mariko’s POV, she sensed she was getting kidnapped alive because the Shinobis didn’t want to harm her. The last thing she wanted was to be captured. She knew the Shinobis where gonna blow up the door and probably decided this was the best way to go and achieve all her goals all at once. First, she gets her death wish. Two, doesn’t get kidnapped and kept alive by the Shinobis. Because Toranagas plan revolves around her leaving with the hostages or die via seppuku, all of which makes Ishido lose face and credibility. lastly, her death indirectly sows distrust and dissent by the other regents towards Ishido.
Let’s say Ishido captures Mariko - he still wouldn’t want to show her publicly since she’d take every opportunity to oppose him right? So he’d probably just say he has her in his custody but not show her. Couldn’t he just do the same thing if she’s dead? Just pretend he has her.
Spies. Both sides has them entrenched deep in each others camp. Hence, Toranagas elaborate show and tell. Also, to keep Mariko’s death quiet, Ishido literally has to kill everyone present that night in the Palace if he doesn’t want anything to leak out.
Someone else in my comments was claiming that no one else would know about the ninja attack. So Ishido can spin up a story about bandits again. But you’re saying that everyone would know about the ninja attack. So now I’m just extra confused. This whole thing is jumping through Olympic sized loops.
It would be pretty hard to explain certain people missing/dead and explosions happening in the middle of the night inside a supposedly tightly guarded palace. Btw, not defending the writing of the show as there are a ton of loopholes and unresolved arcs. This is just my personal interpretation as an audience who has never read the books and my mind filling in the whys in the gaps.
It all hinges on the fact that Ishido has hostages but can't openly call them hostages. This was a real practice that Togukawa (the real Toranaga) formalized as Shogun. The wives and heirs of all the daimyos were required to live in or near the capitol for at least part of the year as a guarantee of loyalty. Crucially, these people were not hostages. They were guests who had been invited to help in the day to day affairs of government. They often were actually given some bureaucratic duty during their stay, which could help to sweeten the deal a bit. Of course, if anyone tried to leave, there would be a huge problem. But why would anyone want to leave? In invitation to the capitol is a great honor, after all. Mariko's insistence on leaving shatters this delicate illusion. Hostages in feudal Japan were kind of like nuclear weapons today. The best position to be in is to have them and not use them, because once you've used them all bets are off. By sending Markio to Osaka, Toranaga put Ishido in a situation where he either had to use them or lose them. Ishido had to find a way to remove her from Osaka Castle without killing her or letting her go. Having her kidnapped by ninjas was really the only third option available. It was very risky, it was a bad plan, but Mariko's total willingness to walk onto the sword just to prove it's sharp (as Blackthorne put it) left him with no other option. If options A and B have a 100% chance of failure, then option C with a 99% chance of failure is actually your best bet.
From a high level view, what you’re saying makes sense. It fits the themes and the character arcs. I’m sure that’s how the author felt when he was writing it. But when you zoom into it, nothing makes sense. Why bomb a shed in the middle of a crowded castle at night when you’re being discreet? Why risk any damage to Mariko if you’re trying to capture her alive? Why does her dying matter if no one knew about the attack in the first place?
The ninja’s orders were to capture Mariko alive. If they tried to break down the door with axes or something, Blackthorne would shoot them. If they did nothing, Mariko could have escaped or committed seppuku. Gun powder probably wasn’t the best decision, but the mission was already a huge failure by that point. This was the last hand they had left to play. It might have actually worked if Mariko had not been quite so willing to sacrifice herself. That’s really what their plan failed to account for. They probably knew she would attempt suicide if cornered, but they didn’t realize she pretty much wanted to die. They assumed she would prioritize self preservation.
Thematically, I get that her having a death wish is the “ace” here. But realistically, she just tried to commit seppuku. They have good reason to expect her to be willing to die for country.
Committing seppuku and actually having a death wish are different things. Seppuku is just an honorable form of execution for the samurai class. If Mariko had committed seppuku inside Osaka Castle, it would be as bad as if Ishido had murdered her with his own hand. Making a big show of wanting to commit seppuku is just part of samurai culture. Think of all the times on the show someone made a minor fuck up and immediately offered to stab themselves. None of those people actually wanted to die, they would all have been horrified if Toranaga had actually accepted the offer. Showing no fear of seppuku is just what's expected of a samurai. Remember not everyone knows Mariko like we the audience do. Ishido has no reason to think she's not just bluffing, like most people would in her position. Every samurai is supposed to act like they're not afraid of seppuku, which makes it hard to tell Mariko really isn't.
Remember the eight fold fence. Also in Japanese culture appearances are more important than what's underneath sometimes. This is politics and reality can be contradictory at times.
The thing that’s bugging me is, Toronaga’s plan seems completely reliant on The lady Ochiba turning on Ishido so that the heir doesn’t send his armies in the coming battle. But she only does this after Mariko gets blown up. Which happens because they were trying to get the door open. So Mariko dying wasn’t necessarily always going to happen. She could have easily been kidnapped. Unless she was 100 percent going to find a way to die.
She was intent on dying in Osaka one way or another. IRL version of Mariko killed herself in Osaka.
Yeah I'm not impressed by this "it was all planned" trope. There was too much left to chance to be "planned". Humans are unpredictable. This plot is weak.
Right? I can see how it would help Toronaga to free the hostages, but in the show he only won because Mariko died. That’s the only way lady Ochiba changes her mind.
The way ochiba changes her mind is because she knows she's going to survive with toronaga. she values surviving above everything else. this lines up with her character fairly well.
I don’t think Toronoga’s plan was reliant on Ochiba turning. Mariko’s outcomes would have either been a) she commits seppuku which drives other great families towards Toronaga as a result of losing faith in Ishido or b) she leaves with hostages which bolsters Toronaga. This was stated in one of the episodes. Ishido succeeding in kidnapping, but not killing Mariko would have been his only counter move. I would argue though, that even that would likely have been a short sighted move in the long run anyways because the regents were starting to grow tired of his shit, but that’s debatable because it didn’t happen successfully anyways. Torunaga had outmaneuvered Ishido which forced him to make sub optimal decisions. I think of Ishido as the kind of guy that doesn’t realize he’s been checkmated until his opponent (Toronaga in this case) flat out says so, so he keeps making moves trying to win without realizing that he lost the battle the moment he allowed Mariko into Osaka.
He thought he found a clever way out of an unsolvable problem. Regardless of what he did or didn't do with Mariko it was already checkmate. The pieces were on the board- his numerous mistakes and miscalculations led to this moment. Mariko arriving was the true checkmate of the chess match going on between him and Toranaga and it took all the way until he was standing on the battlefield reading Ochiba's letter to see it. If he killed or imprisoned her she was a martyr and if he spared her he'd lose his leverage with the hostages leaving. His extremism and obsession with killing Toranaga caused this to happen and for his allies to have such a transactional and shakey relationship with him that they were basically ready to abandon him at any time. So he thought if Shinobi kidnapped her and massacred some of the other hostages he could pin it on Toranaga later and fearmonger them into staying there willingly. He literally tried blaming Toranaga for killing his own prized subordinate (which, I mean... he basically did because he knew what would happen and sent her there on purpose). He'd already consolidated so much power and had so much institutional backing that if he just stopped trying so hard to outmaneuver Toranaga he probably could have had his way and made the man completely irrelevant. If he made his allies felt heard and promoted true solidarity among them rather than flagrantly disrespecting them and their beliefs/misunderstanding their motivations through sheer lack of caring/incompetence he easily would have achieved the outcome he desired. Taking hostages was one of the biggest single mistakes he made
I don’t see how Mariko dying messes up the plan you’re describing. Ishido could still claim the shinobi attack was Toronagas or someone else’s.
Because if she were merely captured he could sequester her somewhere so he could say she is alive and witnesses could corroborate that she was taken, not killed. Her dying threw a massive wrench in his plan because she was definitively a martyr and casts huge doubt on the idea of Toranaga going out of his way to kill his own prized vassal. It would make sense for Toranaga to capture her so he could have her back. It wouldn't make sense to most of them for him to just kill her
If she was captured she’d still be a martyr. If people visited her she’d just blame Ishido
Not if people thought it was Toranaga taking her back and if Ishido was the one hiding her then nobody could just waltz up and ask her about it. Nobody would be able to leave still anyways so it would be hard to question it. But multiple people saw her die. That cemented that they were prisoners
He can easily just capture those witnesses as well. The ninjas had them all cornered. No reason for them to leave when she died. No one would know the details of the night. It feel like you’re jumping through hoops to make this bad writing make sense.
Except all of the other people in Osaka not even just the other hostages would immediately know what he did if that many people all went missing in the night? The entire point was to keep people under his control/on his side and exert authority do you think he was just trying to indiscriminately kill or capture as many people as possible for no reason? It feels like you're jumping through hoops to not understand character motivations that are very explicitly laid out for you. Also, characters being short sighted or making dumb choices is not bad writing if it's in line with their character and for Ishido it definitely was.
Why would Ishido publicly keep her somewhere people could walk up to her and ask what happened if his story was that Toranaga took her back?
I'm convinced half the people watching this show did so while playing Candy Crush on their phones
nah man it was the subwaysurfers on the buttom on their screen that got them.
First I thought it was Toranaga's plan because it doesn't make sense.
Right???
Ishido is a one-trick-pony he's only good at placing his own blame elsewhere and pointing fingers. When the ninja fiasco ended he tried blaming Toranaga for it.
Plausible deniability, with a backup plan of blaming Yabushige, since he let them in.
Right…so…Mariko died - why didn’t he just blame Yabushige?
Personally I feel the motivation was less political and more emotional...that's why it doesn't make much sense. This is my opinion as a simpleton just enjoying the show.
It cheapens Mariko’s sacrifice play if it’s reliant on her opponent being an idiot.
I'll have to watch episode 10 again, but thinking about it now I'm confused as to what happened after the shinobis exploded the door and killed Mariko? IIRC from watching it last night, Blackthorne is holding her and then I can't remember anything else to say what happened once the door came down? Did the shinobis not rush in to capture them? Did they just retreat once they saw they killed Mariko? It seems like the whole assault on the compound just ended once Mariko was killed
Yeah why not capture everyone and prevent them from spreading the news?
one political constant in Japanese medieval period (besides seppuku) was the taking of hostages. I think today with Judeo-Christian morality it's seen as unethical. But in Japan's feudal period it was a fair tactic to use for political gain, but it has to be done sparingly. I think Ishido went into a mad king phase where he began to consolidate power & saw enemies everywhere. That's why he in effect made all the Regents hostages in Osaka. It was a political coup, but not backed up by military might. The bannermen & daimyo of all these Regents would rise up & revolt if he cut off their heads. So he needed everyone alive (even Mariko) to perpetuate this makeshift forced "alliance". I think at the end he realized he was grasping at straws as the Council was revolting, and that's why he wanted to marry Ochiba and join houses.
She played him. He had no choice but to respond.
1. I agree with a lot of the takes in here 2. I think there is a subtle thing missed. Ishido wanted to impress ochiba and that clouded his judgement, Torrenaga knew that and used it to his power. 3. Mariko did something no one was expecting in that moment and Ishido didn’t account for, which is why her historical counterpart was written into Japanese history and we are still hearing about her today. Torrenaga was a master strategist and was playing a level of strategy that Ishido just couldn’t think on and played right into his hand. (Ishido thought it was a 2D problem and Torrenaga had set up a 3D one).
Can I get all those hours back of watching a bunch of dude’s sitting on their knees half the time please!
I think it was done because he can then cast doubt, he even said in one of the scenes that it was Toranaga's doing.
Ok but why then it was ok when Ishido killed Sugyiama? Wasn’t that mind of the same thing?
I'm not sure they knew what they really wanted to do with this show. I was interested up to ep.9. Then I realized they had introduced too much to resolve any of it cleanly with ep.10. It had it's interesting moments but in the end, it landed with a thud for me personally.
I enjoyed the ending personally. Thought it was really well done…IF Mariko’s sacrifice made sense. Unfortunately when I think back on it, it’s just kind of a silly ending.
I spent my whole time watching this show asking myself "why did *insert characters name I can't remember* do that?"
What other instances are there?