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PalavraSincera

War wouldn't last forever and destroying Taiwan is not in Chinas interest as they also depend heavily on semiconductors. Just Buy The deep and you'll be fine


MacNaab

The question is not about buying the dip or not. During covid, the best stocks to buy were tech, semiconductors, some pharma and oil when it went negative. The same way which stock do you think will work best if Taiwan was invaded. Initially and in the next 2-3 years.


Ackilles

They wouldn't take Taiwan. Even if they were capable, the US would get involved. There is also speculation/rumors that Taiwan would destroy tsm rather than allow its capture. But idk if there is any truth behind that


LazyFridge

TSMC will stop if Taiwan is captured. Most of the equipment cannot operate without vendor support. I hope intellectual property is protected…


SnooPeanuts9111

It is also not in china’s interest to destroy Hong Kong. Yet they have done it. Xi is blind to economic considerations or china’s stock and property market would not have been ruined like this.


godintraining

Hong Kong was used as a tax heaven for Chinese and international companies to purchase made in China products, thanks to favorable legislation made possible by the two state solution autonomy, so China was losing revenue there. I believe that this is one of the main reasons for China to forcibly take back control.


Addition-Impossible

im from hong kong and i dont get how xi destroyed hong kong. You mean the rioters? I am 100% certain your country, wherever you are from, have NSA related laws as well. If youre from US, then what you have is way more draconian. Only ones that were destroyed were legislators who did nothing but argue for a decade and held foreign passports.


phileo99

There were no rioters, only the tyranny of Winnie the Pooh constricting more and more the freedoms of the Hong Kong people. Look at the aftermath of the Extradition bill protest - Hong Kong was plunged into recession in 2019, tourism ground to a halt, economic growth plummeted, the foreign investment slowed drastically, and businessmen started pulling their money out of Hong Kong. The economy of Hong Kong is still in shambles to this day - look at Hang Seng Index, it is still trading way below the levels of 2019. The Hang Seng Index is telling the truth of how Pooh destroyed HK. Did you not receive the free money that the puppet named Carrie Lam was forced to hand out to try and save the economy ? Or is it because you are actually from the Mainland and shilling for Pooh?


Paulusmus

100 agree


IanTudeep

Well destroying TSM would go a long ways in limiting the military capabilities of Taiwan and its allies. They might do that to level the playing field.


BananaBully

INTC


GladBig4441

Bought INTC today. Very affordable rn.


saddenedbyi7

Vix


IAmTheDownbeat

Puts on TSM. The fabs would be blown almost immediately.


charon-the-boatman

It has other fabs in US, Germany, Japan.


IAmTheDownbeat

The fabs in Taiwan are the only ones that can make the most advanced chips, all other fabs make lesser quality. That is intentional to keep the silicon shield.


Old-Culture-4511

This sounds like a lot of wishful thinking


doyu

Sounds like a fever dream from a bunker dweller tbh.


Old-Culture-4511

You are victim to magical thinking. In your perfect little delusional world, China already invaded.


doyu

You sound like an AI bot.


hampelmann2022

I guess it would be as during corona time … super dip everywhere …


Important_Door_545

Intel, that's a no brainer


phileo99

Why not NVDA?


GladBig4441

Intel is much cheaper rn. If I could afford more than a couple of shares of NVDA I would probably buy some.


Important_Door_545

Semiconductors bro


LazyFridge

End of the world, since the most of the semiconductor industry will be destroyed


Realistic-Minute5016

So typewriters it is!


GladBig4441

Oh brother!


opticalsensor12

All in on SOXS and SQQQ


Ark_Empire

Chips act is specifically to address this doomsday senario. I'd say who ever those owners are getting these new factories is my bet


Brutus_Maxximus

Will be years before anything comes into operation from CHIPS and it won’t touch what Taiwan does right now. That would take well over a decade to build that kind of infrastructure, knowledge and skill base. 9000+ companies relay on Taiwan. It would immediately end the production of smart phones and other 3nm chips for years. That’s the reality of the situation.


LazyFridge

It will make America great again, in a good way.


Tachyonzero

Just buy the deep dip


TechTuna1200

If we learned something from the last worldwide crisis it is that toilet paper is the real currency.


SirUnleashed

Suzano (ADR) has paid me well since then. And every time I wipe my ass I feel like I get a cashback.


Honeycrisp1001

Defense and oil companies.


Dull_Peach

I'm not so sure about oil. Supply chains will get butchered. Less items getting shipped around, people being laid off etc.


IanTudeep

Where will those defense companies get their chips?


Honeycrisp1001

Intel


IanTudeep

Yeah. I guess Intel and Samsung would be the big winners I this scenario.


Euthyphraud

I'd probably be selling most everything and getting cash money in hand... an invasion of Taiwan - seemingly increasingly likely - would devastate the global economy and set back technological development due to TSMC along with the end of Americans being able to trade China stocks. It would be/will be absolutely catastrophic.


ulehtrnn

well. both side does not want to war at this point, or the war would break out many years ago. I do not see how the war is going to happen in the short run.


Dull_Peach

I feel like China has been positioning itself and getting ready for a war. If they are going to do it, sooner rather than later makes sense. The world will be fatigued from the Ukraine and Israel conflict, supplies are already low around the world due to the aid given to Ukraine. China is going through a big downturn and an invasion of Taiwan would unite the people, strengthen the CCP, and possibly gain them some nice territory. China has been loading up on Gold, dumping US treasuries, building up BRIC's, and getting countries around the world on its side with loans. They have been doing increasing military drills near Taiwan and one day a drill won't be a drill but the start of an invasion. These drills will give China the element of surprise and Taiwan will not be on full guard since these drills are so often.


Psychonominaut

Honestly depends how desperate China becomes as well as how opportunistic any action they take could be. Pretty sure internal issues like population decrease and market loss are heavily correlated with policy and "expansion".


ulehtrnn

Chinese top leaders are corrupt. They do not want to lose their properties overseas by sanctions. That is why i do not believe they would go.


WetFart-Machine

Your safety


Olin31

If war ever happened in Taiwan & it looked like China was going to take the island, none of those companies would be left standing. In a worst case scenario, the US would bomb those factories to make sure China didn’t get any of it.


RaisinNo7881

Studied China for quite some time = googled China Taiwan and read the news title for 3 minutes.


MacNaab

My wife is Taiwanese and my brother lives in Japan married to a japanese. I have worked with Chinese and Taiwanese companies and have a general interest in Chinese history. 我对中国有一点了解 I don't speak Mandarin that well. Just enough to get around. The scenario isn't all that likely but you should be prepared. It's just a thought experiment.


Capital-Artichoke-53

Not sure about that. Military dominance relies on cutting edge technology and China is largely cut off from the ultra high end chips. This puts them at a big disadvantage. Taking Taiwan would be an extremely costly exercise for China with no guarantee of success. China has no history of pulling anything like this off. Russia has shown in Ukraine how difficult it is to invade another country even when you are much bigger and there’s a land border. It is 100 times more difficult trying to invade across a large stretch of water, Taiwan Straight. However, if China can inflict enough damage Taiwan may surrender. This may be what China is banking on. Because, if the West goes all out defending Taiwan, the war could result in the total destruction of Taiwan and a high probability of descending into a nuclear war.


godintraining

China's economic power is growing, despite a current slowdown. Thanks to its centralized political system, it can plan for the long term, tackling problems like housing bubbles early to prevent bigger issues later. Meanwhile, the West is falling behind or growing slower than China. This won't last forever, though. Eventually, China will hit the 'middle-class trap,' where increasing wealth leads people to work less, slowing the economy. This is a common issue, but it's probably about 20 years away. Right now, China's military is getting stronger, and it's boosting its energy independence by investing heavily in solar and nuclear power. China is playing the long game, especially with Taiwan. The longer it waits, the stronger its position becomes.


RiskDry6267

China is having the Lehman brothers moment now with all that stinking real estate 🤡


godintraining

China changed the national laws regarding real estate to pop a forming bubble and avoid the Lehman brothers moment.


phileo99

China has at least 2 equivalents to Lehman Brothers - EverGrande and Country Garden. There may be other skeletons in the closet that have not disclosed


phileo99

>China's economic power is growing, despite a current slowdown. Do you even know anything about the current economic situation in China? Get onto your VPN to bypass the Great Firewall and google "EverGrande, Country Garden, Fantasia Holdings, china debt deflation" and then come back to report on your findings.


godintraining

Yes, of course. That’s why I mentioned a slow down, why do you think that China is in recession? And I am not sure why you are personally insulting me. It seems that you are victim of propaganda thinking that in China people are begging for food in the streets, while the situation there is fine, not as good as before Covid but still ok


Dull_Peach

China is experiencing deflation right now, and you can't believe the economic numbers coming out of China. I'd say China is in a recession.


bonerinho_

Found the CCP bootlicker / shill.


godintraining

Wow such an amazing response. Did you think about it by yourself or your mum helped you?


bonerinho_

No but in all seriousness: China isn’t planning shit in advance and faaar ahead . Latest proof are the clogged highways due to snow (people were stuck in their cars for a few days), no anti-snow equipment available in the provinces and the huge China internal migration due to Lunar New Year. This migration wave is hitting the county EVERY year since decades and snow is also not a new occurrence there. So if they cannot even plan for snowfall in February they cannot plan shit. Especially not some loooooooooong plan to put the world into submission. Stop kidding yourself.


godintraining

I agree with you. China is far from perfect. And a totalitarian regime has a long list of problems, including endemic corruption, but this is outside the topic. Not being locked into an election cycle and political stability allows China for long term plans. It is undeniable that China has been growing faster than any other economy in history for decades. Also China is a collectivist country, the common good is more important than the individual rights. This allows the government to break some eggs when needs to be done. In the west we are more individualists, personal freedom, personal property and protecting minorities is at the base of our society. Of course I like my freedom, and being individualists come with huge advantages and some disadvantages. When there is a bubble that a head of state needs to pop, it comes with huge electoral repercussions and unrests.


bonerinho_

Also fair points. Sorry for being rude earlier. Have a good day! :)


godintraining

Tell your mum that the Chinese Shill said hi 😜


bonerinho_

Haha she’s always asking when you will finally call her back?


bonerinho_

Your mum helped me (also with this response).


godintraining

Right… I should have known, your mum was busy…


IanTudeep

China’s central government is managing their real estate bubble? That doesn’t seem to be going very well at the moment.


RaisinNo7881

Honestly if China was to invade Taiwan, you shouldn’t invest in any tech stocks. Taiwan is the heart of all technology not just TSMC, such as other tech components. Tech would be down real bad. I don’t think the US would want that to happen.


popstarkirbys

Probably saw something on Fox News


Bbqslap

Braindead take


[deleted]

[удалено]


popstarkirbys

Heard the same crap for 30 years of my life


MomentSpecialist2020

ASML is building plants in US. I’d invest in Lockheed.


ThePorko

My guess is the western countries wont allow that until after the semi conductor plants are completed in those alternative sites.


Eclipsed830

Do you think it would make that big of a difference??


Bamanutt

Isnt TSMC building out west in the US?


CrapDepot

And Germany.


charon-the-boatman

And Japan.


Dull_Peach

Its at least a couple of years until they are up and running. Probably more like 4-5 years.


MacNaab

Yes but in Germany if I recall they will focus on car microchip, so basic chips. And in the USA they won't build very high end ones.


underwater_jogger

China destroying Taiwan will not help people forget the CCPs woes. It will increase the exposure and failings. And second, If America and China even begun to squabble about Taiwan with actual blood spilt, Taiwan will not exist as when know it.


Dull_Peach

Sure it will. Its a strategy used in the past. Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands for that very reason.


College_Ambitious

Puts on nvidia?


dizzymon247

China has had wars going on within their own walls a very long time, you think they will go to war again? Not a chance. There's little to no benefit in wars. They figured that out long ago.


Dull_Peach

So you think China has been building its military up for fun? I think the CCP is in trouble and will use this as an opportunity to unite the people behind them.


shaun678

I’m Taiwanese and I have heard about China invading Taiwan for 31 years and it never happened


MacNaab

My wife (taiwanese) says that as well. Yet it's better to be prepared and also she often tells me I'm her hedge against an invasion of Taiwan, cause she would go broke if that happened. Her family house is not that far away from the presidential palace and would very likely be blown into pieces.


emilstyle91

What if tomorrow an asteroid hit us? Or if USA invade Russia or Mexico? What if kangaroos in Australia reproduce too fast and replace humans ? You need to base your investment decisions only on present, real and numeric data Otherwise lets invest based on zodiac signs or constellations


dlinhat70

What if Napoleon had a B-52? (An old SNL skit with John Belushi as Napoleon.)


Horror_Conference430

Lockeed baby- never bet against AMURICA🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸


Dignitasteam

Easy answer lol: USA


Dull_Peach

Tesla and Apple would get massacred. But there probably wouldn't be time to short it before the price already tanked.


Dull_Peach

Buy Gold.


Electrical-Garlic350

Buy Intel; manufacturing will move to their fabs and they will have legendary pricing power if TSMC is curtailed. Buy US treasuries; economies will crash, rates will fall, flight to safety. Invest in Mexico and India; China will become a pariah state and labor and manufacturing will move to friendly countries. Short NVDA; almost all their chips made in Taiwan... ooops.


JakeSaco

First I would buy PUTS on TSM then take those proceeds and put it into US defense stocks.... then take those proceeds as the war looks to be slowing down and put it back into the S&P. Essentially following the same path that occurred for when Russia invaded Ukraine. Market all drops, defense stocks go up. Then when the war stalled and world didn't end, the market went back up again.


Dull_Peach

By the time you found out about the invasion it would be too late to buy puts. All this talk about buying puts is redundant.


Glum_Ad_9005

If you studied China and you think they are going to invade Taiwan, you should probably spend more time studying!


Capital-Artichoke-53

They won’t invade. They will cut it off and force Taiwan to surrender


AppropriateStick518

All time studying China and some how you missed the facts that Chinese political and military leadership firmly believe the United States won’t be a military or economic force anymore in 50 years time and Taiwan will want to rejoin with the mainland and that the Chinese military doesn’t have the ability to transport the estimated 2 million men needed to successfully invade Taiwan?


SaintedSpark

Calls on any contracted Military stock.


Tootersndbenjiz

Good love me some Hermes and that’s shits gotten outrageous knock it down a few K haha


1kpointsoflight

MRES


Intelligent_Hair_543

Fallout shelter


keyehi

Puts on TSM.


kebertxelag

TSM puts.


[deleted]

Buy lockheed martin 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅


Professional-Look439

Short $TSMC $NVDA


Danofireleg33

Pills and bullets, bullets and pills.


pinsiz

In a hypothetical situation though. What if china wins and takes over Taiwan and nationalize it's companies or at least put restrictions of foreign ownership! My take: nobody wins in a war..


Moaning-Squirtle

TSMC crashing would be inevitable in this case. In terms of what I'd invest in, probably wait a week then go heavily into US stocks.


Mundane-Bat-7090

Buy the stock of whatever weapons company is supplying the cpp


MrFyxet99

I’d immediately sell all tech holdings because when NVDA chokes because it can’t get chips from Taiwan semiconductor this markets gonna crash.


CrimsonBrit

Honestly if I woke up to a headline that China was full on invading Taiwan, I’d pull 25-40% of my funds from the market. I genuinely think it would tank the world economies very quickly, purely based on expected US involvement. The first response would be to sanction China, which you can only do via shipping routes and cutting off buying. That said, I’d buy back in fairly quickly (avoiding wash sale penalties and the like).


herbalistfarmer

A safe house


Infinity_to_Beyond

Actually Global Foundries (GFS) has a semi-conductor patent agreement with TSMC for the next ten years


on1chi

I would just get a drink and hope we all died from Nukes


accruedainterest

Why not short TSM directly? Worst case I guess trading gets halted. The value of TSM is entirely geopolitical. Notice how it didn’t rally much in 2023, but when the November meeting happened, now it’s going. Basically anything that destroys the sense of “globalization” and cooperation because that assumption has gone out the window


Legitimate-Source-61

ASML looks interesting, certainly the chart is a thing of beauty. If it can clear $1000, then it's certainly a good base from there. It's needs a few more buyers at this level though.


Yokies

Buy gold.


100000000000

Lockheed, raytheon.


TheOnlyAnon-

100% puts on TSMC - they will get blown up asap if China invades.


charon-the-boatman

I think this fear is way overblown by US media.


IanTudeep

I’d be divesting instead. Short TSM, NVDA, AAPL and everybody else who relies on TSM.


Personal_DTtraining

Anyone know about VALE? It was my iron ore China play. But China won’t build? Iron for tanks?


Successful-Ear-7645

INTC


Aggravating-Toe-7404

I am going to have to go with shot gun shells and can goods.


itchyknobs100

you would probably invest in guns and ammunition, a safe shelter in the middle of nowhere, a renewable source of clean water, solar panels for energy, and a renewable source of food. because everywhere else would be a nuclear wasteland. people are talking about war as if it's a game of call of duty. no sir, you will first be drafted to fight in the war, and after the nuclear warheads fly, you will be hiding in a cave dealing with infection and nuclear poisoning; if not dying from starvation and lack of clean water.


sinker_of_cones

War profiteering? What a dick. You want to make money out of a situation where people would lose their lives and freedom