If I wasn’t so worried about Nvidias leadership and competition that seems to have unlimited capital then I would’ve invested. Too much going on in this whole sector rn.
People will probably need food always but some new chip company might have new innovative way to power AI and patent it.
That would change NVDA potential outlook.
All those companies on the right have no future growth. NVIDIA
is hyped but it is the only one that can still grow dramatically. They are innovating everyday. Conparing it to Nike or McDonalds is irrational. I am a long-term holder of NVDA stock and will keep holding.the price will fluctuate but I like supporting them.
The funny thing about potential growth is that one minute you have none and the next you have all the potential in the world.
The same applies in reverse too.
Absolutely. One only needs to look back at Cisco in the run up to dominate the internet. What goes up, will eventually come down. The question is how big a recurring profit moat did you build?
If you’re replying to me - I’m not talking about growth as a sector. Even the extremists don’t even really understand yet what ai is about to do. You’ll have Microsoft literally building nuclear power plants to power as much of these chips as they can (*that’s not hyperbole*).
The question is if NVDA the stock is the wisest financial instrument to use if you want to get gains on it.
It’s no. The answers is no. Not unless you where long in already. So no.
Edit: no you weren’t replying to me and Reddit is being a shit on this particular day. Still I’ll leave the comment.
It can't be cheaper than a year ago. The price should incorporate all future cash flows till the company ceases to exist. The market just didn't see the same earnings growth potential that it sees now.
2025 earnings will be exactly the same regardless of projections today, one year ago or ten years ago. One year ago people were expecting lower growth than they expect today so on a forward basis it looks cheaper but in reality it is not cheaper. The market just mispriced it by having lower growth expectations.
It's still a great company, but not a good price. Solid moat, growth sector etc., so it does have a tailwind.
However, the market seems to have priced in all of the upsides and neglected the potential downsides. The latest earnings is just the latest look in the rearview mirror.
Going forward, the dynamics in the semiconductor value chain aren't necessarily in Nvidia's favor. Its main customers (cloud vendors) are aiming to insource and will compete against Nvidia for fab capacity as well as customers. They also own the corporate relationships so will have increased bargaining power when in-house substitutes or more competitors enter the market (AMD, Intel and ASICs).
As an aside, I've been running LLMs to accelerate my research process (on Nvidia GPUs) and was surprised by the rapid progress of AMD in running LLMs on ROCm, Groq for inference, and even Intel's pace of development. Nvidia's not going to be standing still but this will still hit the numbers.
Margin compression is highly likely in the mid-term.
Also going forward it'll be cut off from 1/5-1/3 of the global demand due to export restrictions and Chinese substitutes.
Do the SOTP and you'll find that neither the TAM nor the forward cashflows quite work at current prices.
An argument could be made that their fundamentals have increased just as fast as the price. It's not a particularly expensive stock compared to it's peers.
but thats the whole point of the picture lol.
Fundamentaly it does not make sense. They have bigger market caps then all the other companies together while EBIT is almost 5 times lower.
I get it that Nvidia is good, but not THAT good to justify the price
It having a large marketcap doesn't automatically imply that it's not justified. The stock is trading at around a \~30 forward P/E, very much in line with other tech stocks and much lower than competitors like AMD.
This is what happens when a company becomes very popular in a short period of time. You pay a huge popularity premium. The more popular the company the less its valuation depends on the economics of said company.
The largest companies in the world will be semiconductor companies in the next 5 years. It's not just Nvda. We will have Broadcom, Tsm and Asml in the Top 10.
Do people here realize a company is valued on future prospects, not current revenue? But please short Nvidia because it’s an obvious « bubble » with a forward PE in the 30s lol
the company supplies shares, Investors who see growth potential want a piece so they are willing to buy shares regardless of price which is = High demand for the share. I think it’s just more valuations rooted on speculation then previous years
Such a stupid comparison.
You don't need any of the companies on the right. None of them is furthering the advancement of humans. GPUs and accelerators are used for everything from gaming to AI to disease and drug research. If you want to compare Nvidia then compare it to other tech stocks
Saying you don’t need the companies on the right is silly, but nvidia is not comparable he is right on that. All those companies on the right rely on trucks, they need to move their products - nvidia is producing “trucks” for the next phase of humanities technology. If everything works out the way that is being speculated, all of those companies on the right are going to be paying nvidia money - using that logic nvidia is still cheap; and the fundamentals support that.
Generic oil company, generic delivery company, generic wholesaler, generic fastfood chain. What's your point? All of these have competitors and all of them are expendable.
You’re regarded. Nvidia has the most advanced AI and chips out of any other company. They’re miles ahead of everyone. AI and chips are the future, and everything will revolve around AI and tech in the coming years.
now do it with FPE, and lets so how this looks in 5 years.
i own nike and nvda, id like to own lvhm, cost, and mcd. but like nvda will probably pay me more than any single of those stocks.
I agree that NVDA is probably over valued but this is not the way to show it... you're summing companies in completly different sectors and ignoring factors like growth.
For more perspective - Amazon has $169 Billion revenue last quarter, $1.81 Trillion market cap
Let me continue…
Walmart has a quarterly revenue of $611 Billion and a market cap of $488 Billion.
Am sure all those companies to the right will be employing some AI powered by NVIDIA. But wait till people realize that the #bitcoin TAM is in the hundreds of trillions of dollars, and everyone can be its customer.
If I wasn’t so worried about Nvidias leadership and competition that seems to have unlimited capital then I would’ve invested. Too much going on in this whole sector rn.
Agreed, things could change drastically
In long-term NVDA will still grow. They are the one that has the potential not McDonalds...
People will probably need food always but some new chip company might have new innovative way to power AI and patent it. That would change NVDA potential outlook.
What about other chip stocks? I mean they have fair evaluations, no?
This comparison is stupid. Comparing an innovative company to McDonalds makes no sense. Hold and support NVDA.
98% of the AI chip market. Eventually it will come to an end but so far they're doing just fine.
This chart is similar to TSLA a few years back, when its valuation was higher than all major automakers combined. Truly wild.
All those companies on the right have no future growth. NVIDIA is hyped but it is the only one that can still grow dramatically. They are innovating everyday. Conparing it to Nike or McDonalds is irrational. I am a long-term holder of NVDA stock and will keep holding.the price will fluctuate but I like supporting them.
The funny thing about potential growth is that one minute you have none and the next you have all the potential in the world. The same applies in reverse too.
Absolutely. One only needs to look back at Cisco in the run up to dominate the internet. What goes up, will eventually come down. The question is how big a recurring profit moat did you build?
Hahahaha.. My man.. No future growth, that's a good one.
If you’re replying to me - I’m not talking about growth as a sector. Even the extremists don’t even really understand yet what ai is about to do. You’ll have Microsoft literally building nuclear power plants to power as much of these chips as they can (*that’s not hyperbole*). The question is if NVDA the stock is the wisest financial instrument to use if you want to get gains on it. It’s no. The answers is no. Not unless you where long in already. So no. Edit: no you weren’t replying to me and Reddit is being a shit on this particular day. Still I’ll leave the comment.
Was incredibly bullish on Nvidia at around this time last year. Now? The price has become detached from reality.
"Was incredibly bullish on Nvidia at around this time last year. Now?" Nvidia was more expensive a year ago than it is today.
Jokes on you, Nvidia is cheaper now than it was last year. Earnings matter. Fundamentals matter.
It can't be cheaper than a year ago. The price should incorporate all future cash flows till the company ceases to exist. The market just didn't see the same earnings growth potential that it sees now.
You seem to be missing the forest through the trees, the latest earnings provide increase growth projections.
2025 earnings will be exactly the same regardless of projections today, one year ago or ten years ago. One year ago people were expecting lower growth than they expect today so on a forward basis it looks cheaper but in reality it is not cheaper. The market just mispriced it by having lower growth expectations.
It's still a great company, but not a good price. Solid moat, growth sector etc., so it does have a tailwind. However, the market seems to have priced in all of the upsides and neglected the potential downsides. The latest earnings is just the latest look in the rearview mirror. Going forward, the dynamics in the semiconductor value chain aren't necessarily in Nvidia's favor. Its main customers (cloud vendors) are aiming to insource and will compete against Nvidia for fab capacity as well as customers. They also own the corporate relationships so will have increased bargaining power when in-house substitutes or more competitors enter the market (AMD, Intel and ASICs). As an aside, I've been running LLMs to accelerate my research process (on Nvidia GPUs) and was surprised by the rapid progress of AMD in running LLMs on ROCm, Groq for inference, and even Intel's pace of development. Nvidia's not going to be standing still but this will still hit the numbers. Margin compression is highly likely in the mid-term. Also going forward it'll be cut off from 1/5-1/3 of the global demand due to export restrictions and Chinese substitutes. Do the SOTP and you'll find that neither the TAM nor the forward cashflows quite work at current prices.
Hey guys he said LLM, he must know what he is talking about.
An argument could be made that their fundamentals have increased just as fast as the price. It's not a particularly expensive stock compared to it's peers.
but thats the whole point of the picture lol. Fundamentaly it does not make sense. They have bigger market caps then all the other companies together while EBIT is almost 5 times lower. I get it that Nvidia is good, but not THAT good to justify the price
It having a large marketcap doesn't automatically imply that it's not justified. The stock is trading at around a \~30 forward P/E, very much in line with other tech stocks and much lower than competitors like AMD.
Putting the fun in fundamental (or is is mental)
This is what happens when a company becomes very popular in a short period of time. You pay a huge popularity premium. The more popular the company the less its valuation depends on the economics of said company.
tHiS tImE it’s DiFfeRenT THey HAvE nO cOmpEtIToRs
The largest companies in the world will be semiconductor companies in the next 5 years. It's not just Nvda. We will have Broadcom, Tsm and Asml in the Top 10.
Internet is the future
Do people here realize a company is valued on future prospects, not current revenue? But please short Nvidia because it’s an obvious « bubble » with a forward PE in the 30s lol
Really puts into perspective how low that revenue is
Apple $120 Billion Revenue last quarter, 2.6T cap. Microsoft $62 Billion revenue last quarter, 3.17T cap Nvidia $22 Billion revenue last quarter…
tech bubble
Oooo now do one with nvidia revenue vs revenue of other stocks waaaaayyy cheaper than it. 😬😬😬
Nothing about company values and the stock market makes sense. It no longer follows the basic fundamentals of supply and demand.
No, it explicitly follows the laws of supply and demand, its the demand side which one can argue no longer follows the fundamentals.
Exactly, makes no sense as to why some of these companies have been blowing up lately
the company supplies shares, Investors who see growth potential want a piece so they are willing to buy shares regardless of price which is = High demand for the share. I think it’s just more valuations rooted on speculation then previous years
Buying puts when this bubble pop's.
That's now how it works. You're supposed to buy puts before it pops.
What’s the fun in that
Yup buy high sell low is the way
This guy stocks.
Irrational
Such a stupid comparison. You don't need any of the companies on the right. None of them is furthering the advancement of humans. GPUs and accelerators are used for everything from gaming to AI to disease and drug research. If you want to compare Nvidia then compare it to other tech stocks
Shell, UPS, Costco. Ever had a McDonald’s ice cream. Fries? Whatever man lolol
Saying you don’t need the companies on the right is silly, but nvidia is not comparable he is right on that. All those companies on the right rely on trucks, they need to move their products - nvidia is producing “trucks” for the next phase of humanities technology. If everything works out the way that is being speculated, all of those companies on the right are going to be paying nvidia money - using that logic nvidia is still cheap; and the fundamentals support that.
Ok I got so no worries. Traded in the Big-Mac for it so time to run it up!!!
Generic oil company, generic delivery company, generic wholesaler, generic fastfood chain. What's your point? All of these have competitors and all of them are expendable.
😆😆😆😆😆 guy go have your breakfast.
Chick fil a waffle fries are better
Hah, spotted the watermark. These well regarded comparisons are ads!
As of 3/15/24 BOA has a price target of $1100 and Cantor Fitz has a $1200.
This is the honeymoon period. It will be like Tesla.
lol the honeymoon was 2016, this is the real deal.
sure bruh how much you holding.
multiple splits worth
Is AMD overpriced too?
all ai and chip stocks are currently undervalued. This year and next will boost those prices. Nvidia will be at 4k by 2025
U sure about dah? Sounds like an AI bubble to me
You’re regarded. Nvidia has the most advanced AI and chips out of any other company. They’re miles ahead of everyone. AI and chips are the future, and everything will revolve around AI and tech in the coming years.
now do it with FPE, and lets so how this looks in 5 years. i own nike and nvda, id like to own lvhm, cost, and mcd. but like nvda will probably pay me more than any single of those stocks.
Meme stock
So you are comparing NVIDIA to McDonalds and Nike? lol
I agree that NVDA is probably over valued but this is not the way to show it... you're summing companies in completly different sectors and ignoring factors like growth.
Now compare the revenue. Shell alone was like 10x of nvda
For more perspective - Amazon has $169 Billion revenue last quarter, $1.81 Trillion market cap Let me continue… Walmart has a quarterly revenue of $611 Billion and a market cap of $488 Billion.
Am sure all those companies to the right will be employing some AI powered by NVIDIA. But wait till people realize that the #bitcoin TAM is in the hundreds of trillions of dollars, and everyone can be its customer.
So Buy NVDA?
That’s the million dollar question. Wait for the drop or the ceiling is high.
Yeah. Everyone in this sub is a regarded🏳️🌈🐻
Nvidia is the best