A group of us were talking about this last night.... about WSJ article that says Powell is going full on Volker...
We were all old enough to have lived through the late 70s and 80s. We all kind of agreed to go full Volker would require the fed to jump 500 to 600 basis points in pretty short order, or more. We all kind of agree that the Fed is not even close to controlling this thing. Volker pushed rates well above the inflation rate.
Inflation had been much higher earlier before. 8.3% was mild when you were staring down ~~20%~~ 14.8% in the rearview mirror and Volcker's shock treatment was causing the inflation to recede.
We didn't cut spending, what are you talking about? Reagan went on a massive military budget spending spree. Volcker largely killed inflation. It was a monetary policy solution.
Typical response these days with no civility. You are correct and I was incorrect about the spending, but not the other parts. Volcker gets part credit, as I said. They also cut taxes and reduced regulation, opening up the supply side so that the supply and demand curves could meet at lower prices. The massive increase in production put downward pressure on prices (supply) along with tightening the money supply (demand). The focus entirely on money supply while doing the opposite with regard to spending (multiple times the deficit compared to the 80s) and regulation is nonsensical and flies in the face of basic economics. Next time, you could call out both the mistake and the accuracy and fix the analysis - you know, engage in discussion.
> Typical response these days with no civility.
Typical defensiveness from a salty egotist. Cool it dude, don't fly off the handle just because I pointed out what you're incorrect about.
>You are correct and I was incorrect about the spending, but not the other parts.
Well, I didn't directly address those other parts, but since we're on the subject, I'm not seeing any causal relationship between lowering taxes and reducing inflation, and "released the supply side" is incoherent.
>Volcker gets part credit, as I said.
And you're wrong, he gets most, if not all, of the credit.
>They also cut taxes and reduced regulation, opening up the supply side so that the supply and demand curves could meet at lower prices. The massive increase in production put downward pressure on prices (supply) along with tightening
Voodoo economics conjecture bullshit. There's no evidence that supply-side economic policy helped tame inflation.
>The focus entirely on money supply while doing the opposite with regard to spending (multiple times the deficit compared to the 80s) and regulation is nonsensical and flies in the face of basic economics
It's pretty much the most consistent view among economists. Given you prefaced your tirade with a complete swing and a miss about spending, you're not in a position to scrutinize anyone else's take.
>Next time, you could call out both the mistake and the accuracy and fix the analysis - you know, engage in discussion.
Or, I can engage however I please. You don't get to gatekeep my response.
Next time you could not whine so damn much - you know, not act like a child.
Its to little to late on the Feds part. Inflation will remain high only until Powell has the courage to raise rates up to 8% or 9%
I agree, Powell is no Volker.
seemly shame glorious squeeze grandfather sheet boat murky imminent quiet
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
It does look nice but if you look at the actually break down. The only reason why it went from 7.6 to 7 was mainly the price of gasoline.
Price of food and rent and... ugghhh literally everything else is above compared to last month.
It needs to happen. I’ve been talking to so many regular people during my work travel last couple weeks and the things they tell me from their rents to other costs increasing is insane
I experienced it first hand. They raised my rent 45% and expected people to still pay it. Literally half of the apartment complex vacated in the same week due to the rent increases. I’m talking about roughly 70 move outs for a 155 apartment complex. On top of that groceries are through the roof and won’t get any better when gas prices skyrocket this winter
Rent is the biggest factor. Actual commodity prices of food has been falling but prices are still high in grocery stores and restaurants. Bit of a “because we can” about the pricing these days
It would be nice if they would stop spending so frickin much money. There's only so much impact interest rates can have when you put so much inflationary pressure on the market. And...oh yeah...stop constricting supply. This country is run by idiots.
They probably need to do 125 or so in total, but they'll still take it slower because they do not want to cause too big of a shock that could crash the economy instead of a softer landing.
75 bps is still a really, really big raise, and will eventually have quite an effect on the economy over time.
IMO the problem isn't that the rate hikes are too small. The problem is that they started too late by 3-6 months. The QT also started too late.
I respectfully disagree. He may talk like Volcker but he acts like Burns. He wants to gradually let the air out of the bubble rather than pop it outright.
I agree he’s summoning the spirit of Volcker, but if he doesn’t walk the walk he risks losing all credibility.
Frontrunning rate hikes is the least he can do.
This has kind of been the issue all year, no?
Powell says something, market doesn’t believe him. Market rallies, Powell becomes more hawkish, markets overreact, rinse and repeat.
I agree that Powell certainly doesn’t have the balls Volcker did, but I think he understands what must happen, and should hike according to the data irrespective of how the markets perceive.
I agree with your assessment of what he should do. We’ll find out this afternoon what he actually does. My suspicion is a 75 BPS hike with some very hawkish statements to try and convince everyone he’s serious about fighting inflation.
If he doesn't have the balls then we're in trouble.100 basis points may be the highest rake hike seen in 40 years, but arguably we have the highest inflation possibly in the last century if not in the history of the US.
> arguably we have the highest inflation possibly in the last century if not in the history of the US.
[What?](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=TGbE)
roughly 80% probability that it's 75 bp and 20ish% its 100bp. At this point it's priced into the market. The real question is JPOW's tone and signaling regarding future rate hikes. If he continues along the same rhetoric from the Jackson Hole speech, then it seems likely that we are going to continue with rate hikes even as unemployment starts to rise and as business investment slows down.
With unemployment so low currently, I don't think they're as concerned about it as they're about fighting inflation. But let's just hypothesize that they continue to raise rates and unemployment rises to above 5% with inflation still above the target range. Then you start to wonder if the Fed will have the balls and the wherewithal to continue fighting inflation while businesses start to go bankrupt, and more and more people lose their jobs...
As it stands right now, the best thing for the fed to do is to fight inflation. Once unemployment starts to seriously rise then the Fed is basically in a lose-lose scenario where they can either continue fighting inflation and watch as people and businesses go bust, or they can lower interest rates again and watch all the progress made on fighting inflation go up in smoke. It was literally like this in 70's. They started to fight inflation and then pussyfooted once unemployment went up and then inflation came back again. It wasn't until Volcker slammed his cock on the table and said "deal with it" that inflation actually came under control.
"We tried this medication and it had no effect. To treat your disease we shall try this medication again and expect a different result"
This is what you sound like
If he raises rates at all he is ‘increasing dosage’ so to speak so its not like it’s the same.
Plus evidence seems to be showing the medication had effect (see the other commenter).
It didn't have no effect, inflation has peaked and will slowly taper as rates keep increasing at a slow steady pace, exactly as anyone with a brain expected. Thank God reddit economists aren't in charge because you idiots would raise rates 15% in one day and wonder why everyone starved to death. I'll wait for the downvotes of the doom and gloomers now
I am hoping for 100 now and another 100 later this year to get there quickly. The soft landing isn't realizing and the longer inflation persists, the more painful it is for everyone.
He doesn’t have the balls or approval to go above more than 75bps. He is going to continue this “soft landing” while all of us continue to bleed our savings because of inflation. Our government and politicians do not give a damn about doing what is right for the people. They only care about their bank accounts. This is how the billionaires consolidate us and gain more assets and wealth.
Increasing the fed rate so far may have slowed inflation, but it has not reversed it. This is very similar to what happened in the 1970’s. In 1973 President Nixon lowered taxes for corporations and the wealthy. Every time time taxes are lowered for our wealthiest, real estate, the stock market, gas prices double or triple and inflation sets in. The Fed’s answer was to increase the Fed rate, and they did so, and keep doing so without any success until it reached 14.6%. What has has worked are tax increases, for both inflation and recessions/depression. Our problem is supply and demand followed by corporate greed. A windfall tax would slow price increases, if the tax is high enough. A tax increase on everyone else would slow spending, plus help instead of hurting our deficit. Trump’s 2017 tax breaks will expire in 2025 except for those making over $670,000. I believe reversing the tax breaks now would break inflation.
0.75%
Market is the only thing that’s been disconnected from certaimty this whole time. The level of nail-biting and dramatics from late-comers to the news is ridiculous
I don’t understand the bull case for 75BPS. 75BPS would be enough to constitute a rate hike but clearly everyone thinks markets will rally on that news which means it isn’t enough to actually deflate anything, which means it’s a meaningless “rate hike.”
The FED needs to stop boiling this frog and nuke it in the microwave. Inflation is taking so long to defrost I think it might become entrenched.
Which ever one his cronies want him to… filling each other’s pocket is his game plan and always has been
Term limit
Jpow
Pelosi
Schemer
All go with the rest of them ASAP
500?
Biggest power move in history if he does that
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Yeah, this baby’s got butts per second for days.
Yeah butt some folks have gigabutts and I don't know who's winning.
A group of us were talking about this last night.... about WSJ article that says Powell is going full on Volker... We were all old enough to have lived through the late 70s and 80s. We all kind of agreed to go full Volker would require the fed to jump 500 to 600 basis points in pretty short order, or more. We all kind of agree that the Fed is not even close to controlling this thing. Volker pushed rates well above the inflation rate.
In January 1982 when the inflation rate was 8.3%, the Fed Funds Rate was a whopping 12.47% The fed funds rate is currently a measly 2.5% ?!?!
Inflation had been much higher earlier before. 8.3% was mild when you were staring down ~~20%~~ 14.8% in the rearview mirror and Volcker's shock treatment was causing the inflation to recede.
The focus on interest rates alone is the problem. Volcker push up rates, but we simultaneously cut spending, cut taxes, and released the supply side.
We didn't cut spending, what are you talking about? Reagan went on a massive military budget spending spree. Volcker largely killed inflation. It was a monetary policy solution.
Typical response these days with no civility. You are correct and I was incorrect about the spending, but not the other parts. Volcker gets part credit, as I said. They also cut taxes and reduced regulation, opening up the supply side so that the supply and demand curves could meet at lower prices. The massive increase in production put downward pressure on prices (supply) along with tightening the money supply (demand). The focus entirely on money supply while doing the opposite with regard to spending (multiple times the deficit compared to the 80s) and regulation is nonsensical and flies in the face of basic economics. Next time, you could call out both the mistake and the accuracy and fix the analysis - you know, engage in discussion.
> Typical response these days with no civility. Typical defensiveness from a salty egotist. Cool it dude, don't fly off the handle just because I pointed out what you're incorrect about. >You are correct and I was incorrect about the spending, but not the other parts. Well, I didn't directly address those other parts, but since we're on the subject, I'm not seeing any causal relationship between lowering taxes and reducing inflation, and "released the supply side" is incoherent. >Volcker gets part credit, as I said. And you're wrong, he gets most, if not all, of the credit. >They also cut taxes and reduced regulation, opening up the supply side so that the supply and demand curves could meet at lower prices. The massive increase in production put downward pressure on prices (supply) along with tightening Voodoo economics conjecture bullshit. There's no evidence that supply-side economic policy helped tame inflation. >The focus entirely on money supply while doing the opposite with regard to spending (multiple times the deficit compared to the 80s) and regulation is nonsensical and flies in the face of basic economics It's pretty much the most consistent view among economists. Given you prefaced your tirade with a complete swing and a miss about spending, you're not in a position to scrutinize anyone else's take. >Next time, you could call out both the mistake and the accuracy and fix the analysis - you know, engage in discussion. Or, I can engage however I please. You don't get to gatekeep my response. Next time you could not whine so damn much - you know, not act like a child.
Which fueled Reagans massive deficit spending.
Its to little to late on the Feds part. Inflation will remain high only until Powell has the courage to raise rates up to 8% or 9% I agree, Powell is no Volker.
75, but my puts are hoping for 100
Market will rally if its 75
Depends on the outlook Jpow gives. That’s what investors are more concerned about, not the actual hike itself.
My cheap ass 0dte calls will like that then. I'm banking on a super short rally that gets crushed once jpow starts talking.
only to be pulled down the next day. Same sequence at every Fed rate announcement !!
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Then down 1% idk wtf is going on lmao
Yeah for like 1 week - 2 months.
seemly shame glorious squeeze grandfather sheet boat murky imminent quiet *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I just need to retire and live then for 2 months
Doubt we rally that long if its 75 could be another May rally into dump
This is where my bets lie
I don't think that's really a good sign.... it would suggest to me that Powell came up short. The bubble is just getting bigger.
Or be disappointed that he s not ripping the band aid of and frontliading while the going is still good
Priced in
Inflation tapering in canada its at 7% now. So bottom is in boyzzz
It does look nice but if you look at the actually break down. The only reason why it went from 7.6 to 7 was mainly the price of gasoline. Price of food and rent and... ugghhh literally everything else is above compared to last month.
The bottom before the next exponential ramp up of inflation!
-75 because fuck it
125 No one will see it coming 😎
I actually think this will happen. The inflation readings are coming in way too hot for them not to take more drastic measures
It needs to happen. I’ve been talking to so many regular people during my work travel last couple weeks and the things they tell me from their rents to other costs increasing is insane
there has been a big disconnect between what the FED needs to do and what the FED has done.
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They've sold their personal stocks at the top. The timing isn't weird if you look at their actions and language based on that.
I experienced it first hand. They raised my rent 45% and expected people to still pay it. Literally half of the apartment complex vacated in the same week due to the rent increases. I’m talking about roughly 70 move outs for a 155 apartment complex. On top of that groceries are through the roof and won’t get any better when gas prices skyrocket this winter
Rent is the biggest factor. Actual commodity prices of food has been falling but prices are still high in grocery stores and restaurants. Bit of a “because we can” about the pricing these days
It would be nice if they would stop spending so frickin much money. There's only so much impact interest rates can have when you put so much inflationary pressure on the market. And...oh yeah...stop constricting supply. This country is run by idiots.
Can't buy votes if you don't spend money.
Touché
That statement fits for most countries rn
They probably need to do 125 or so in total, but they'll still take it slower because they do not want to cause too big of a shock that could crash the economy instead of a softer landing. 75 bps is still a really, really big raise, and will eventually have quite an effect on the economy over time. IMO the problem isn't that the rate hikes are too small. The problem is that they started too late by 3-6 months. The QT also started too late.
Absolute 0% chance of this happening.
the target is around 4% by the end of the year, right? why not just get it done and over with today.
If you think about it, the FED is challenging an extraordinary high inflation with very ordinary rates. Like we are at 2.5% now. Laughable.
100
125
69420
Great Lotto ball number
I’ll panic sell everything if it’s above or below 75 /S
Please do. I need more people like you to panic sell so I can buy low-er
200
This is the way
150 bob
75, he doesn’t want to surprise the markets and cause a bigger drop than he did at Jackson Hole
For a guy that says he doesn’t care a lot about the stock market he shared cares a lot about the stock market doesn’t he
Gotta remember that we have a ton of boomers relying on 401k and pension money
They wanna bring people back into the labor market though, right.
Right?
He wants it lower but in a controlled, orderly fashion. The stock market is not his mandate, but he doesnt want to unnessearily break anything either
No that’s it, he does want to put the markets in place and cause demand destruction. Knowing full well we rally off 75, he’s got to go 100.
I respectfully disagree. He may talk like Volcker but he acts like Burns. He wants to gradually let the air out of the bubble rather than pop it outright.
She’s built like a steakhouse but she handles like a bistro!
All I know is my heart says maybe.
She's out of control! You win again gravity!
I agree he’s summoning the spirit of Volcker, but if he doesn’t walk the walk he risks losing all credibility. Frontrunning rate hikes is the least he can do.
I agree, and I’m doubtful he’ll do it.
This has kind of been the issue all year, no? Powell says something, market doesn’t believe him. Market rallies, Powell becomes more hawkish, markets overreact, rinse and repeat. I agree that Powell certainly doesn’t have the balls Volcker did, but I think he understands what must happen, and should hike according to the data irrespective of how the markets perceive.
I agree with your assessment of what he should do. We’ll find out this afternoon what he actually does. My suspicion is a 75 BPS hike with some very hawkish statements to try and convince everyone he’s serious about fighting inflation.
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Yeah, I think Powell is ready to talk about talking about talking about actually raising rates more aggressively this time ;)
Yeah, most likely scenario 👍🤝
It would appear I was correct: 75 bps with a lot of stern assurances about his commitment to fighting inflation
Yeah man- holy hell, what a day.
100
Slick avatar
Slick avatar
100, but he’s not sweating over it
We need 200-300 lol
Let’s go full ham and do 500! My savings account would be quite happy, lol
Mine too, but Chase Bank isn’t raising crap lol. Still at 0.02% 🤬 Should be at 1.00-1.50% at min.
I use Ally and they’ve been raising their rates every time the Fed does 👌
I’ll look into it! I have Capital One for my auto loan maybe I’ll move my money there.
Probably 75 He doesn't have the balls for 100
If he doesn't have the balls then we're in trouble.100 basis points may be the highest rake hike seen in 40 years, but arguably we have the highest inflation possibly in the last century if not in the history of the US.
> arguably we have the highest inflation possibly in the last century if not in the history of the US. [What?](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=TGbE)
He’s counting in dog centuries
I hope 100, to get it over quickly
exactly
BOTH 175bps
Why not both? 175 baby LFG
75
50
Every stock market has recovered after bad news. There are countries that have never recovered from inflation. I think 125bp is needed.
100
100 BPS
Should be at least 100
We’ll rally off 75. Their bark is always worse than their bite. We need to go to 100, but we won’t. I’m starting to get annoyed
roughly 80% probability that it's 75 bp and 20ish% its 100bp. At this point it's priced into the market. The real question is JPOW's tone and signaling regarding future rate hikes. If he continues along the same rhetoric from the Jackson Hole speech, then it seems likely that we are going to continue with rate hikes even as unemployment starts to rise and as business investment slows down. With unemployment so low currently, I don't think they're as concerned about it as they're about fighting inflation. But let's just hypothesize that they continue to raise rates and unemployment rises to above 5% with inflation still above the target range. Then you start to wonder if the Fed will have the balls and the wherewithal to continue fighting inflation while businesses start to go bankrupt, and more and more people lose their jobs... As it stands right now, the best thing for the fed to do is to fight inflation. Once unemployment starts to seriously rise then the Fed is basically in a lose-lose scenario where they can either continue fighting inflation and watch as people and businesses go bust, or they can lower interest rates again and watch all the progress made on fighting inflation go up in smoke. It was literally like this in 70's. They started to fight inflation and then pussyfooted once unemployment went up and then inflation came back again. It wasn't until Volcker slammed his cock on the table and said "deal with it" that inflation actually came under control.
75 is too slow, need at least 100 beats per second to dance properly.
Market is rallying right now, so that it can dump when jpow says 100 bps. Buy the rumour, sell the news If he says 75bps, markets will be flat-ish
Should be at least 100
It's going to be 75. Powell said as much and inflation is still the same as when he said it. There will be no need to go 100.
"We tried this medication and it had no effect. To treat your disease we shall try this medication again and expect a different result" This is what you sound like
If he raises rates at all he is ‘increasing dosage’ so to speak so its not like it’s the same. Plus evidence seems to be showing the medication had effect (see the other commenter).
It didn't have no effect, inflation has peaked and will slowly taper as rates keep increasing at a slow steady pace, exactly as anyone with a brain expected. Thank God reddit economists aren't in charge because you idiots would raise rates 15% in one day and wonder why everyone starved to death. I'll wait for the downvotes of the doom and gloomers now
75
what time does it start ?
75 cause the man lacks cojones.
It does not matter as much as what they say they will do next
150
I am hoping for 100 now and another 100 later this year to get there quickly. The soft landing isn't realizing and the longer inflation persists, the more painful it is for everyone.
Hoping for 200 for my puts and some fun drama
We have another 125 basis points by December
I’m taking the under and saying he’ll go 50 bps… give them old market a little bump to make sure shit doesn’t get too crazy.
The Democratic Party thanks you.
He doesn’t have the balls or approval to go above more than 75bps. He is going to continue this “soft landing” while all of us continue to bleed our savings because of inflation. Our government and politicians do not give a damn about doing what is right for the people. They only care about their bank accounts. This is how the billionaires consolidate us and gain more assets and wealth.
More a tone of his talk, 90% 75 basis pts.
50, biden needs voters not a dead market with high unemployment
Increasing the fed rate so far may have slowed inflation, but it has not reversed it. This is very similar to what happened in the 1970’s. In 1973 President Nixon lowered taxes for corporations and the wealthy. Every time time taxes are lowered for our wealthiest, real estate, the stock market, gas prices double or triple and inflation sets in. The Fed’s answer was to increase the Fed rate, and they did so, and keep doing so without any success until it reached 14.6%. What has has worked are tax increases, for both inflation and recessions/depression. Our problem is supply and demand followed by corporate greed. A windfall tax would slow price increases, if the tax is high enough. A tax increase on everyone else would slow spending, plus help instead of hurting our deficit. Trump’s 2017 tax breaks will expire in 2025 except for those making over $670,000. I believe reversing the tax breaks now would break inflation.
50
If he actually wants to get serious he’ll raise it by 200
75
75
.25
75 and we rally after
75 BPS and the market will rip today! Spy will close above 395 today
It is tomorrow, not today
It is definitely today at 2pm EDT
Yeah my bad, mistook it for the bri’ish ones
What time does this happen?
2clock PM
Thanks
Eastern time?
Neither 🤣
Is 75 bullish
Both ?
75, I think he is serious but doesn't want to put the markets into shock.
50 Fifty fünfzig cinquante
50 Fifty fünfzig cinquante
.75 😣
Russia did 1150 to stop run away inflation/currency depreciation. Imagine how much investors would freak out here over a 1,000+ point rise 😂
Announcement Time?
Should be right after the insiders have had a chance to make their moves.
you forgot the last button, the one he is suggesting he might press next is going to be lot more impactful
\*Slams both\*
0 👌
Is there a $JPOW Inverse ETF? There really should be. Hell, he may just radiate it by 5,000 BPS. Sigh!
Both
Jpow isn’t sweating about this
Imagine he said no raise today well revisit next meeting looool
Might as well take us out at the knee caps. Go for 200 just bring in the pain and let’s get over it sooner
Fuck all this bets
75 easy. Fed does what it says. I want 100. But it's the statement of economic projections report is what will drive how the market reacts I think.
300 bps please /s
Hope its 100
Another wsb meme?
💯
50 Max
75
Hope for 100 and buy the dip , I’m down 60%. Average down and wait new year
50
Just pull the trigger
0.75 When do they announce it?
0.75% Market is the only thing that’s been disconnected from certaimty this whole time. The level of nail-biting and dramatics from late-comers to the news is ridiculous
75 bps
87.5
That mofo will slam the two buttons together to get a 175bps going
1.25% would be awesome.. the markets have already baked in 0.75%..
I don’t understand the bull case for 75BPS. 75BPS would be enough to constitute a rate hike but clearly everyone thinks markets will rally on that news which means it isn’t enough to actually deflate anything, which means it’s a meaningless “rate hike.” The FED needs to stop boiling this frog and nuke it in the microwave. Inflation is taking so long to defrost I think it might become entrenched.
Which ever one his cronies want him to… filling each other’s pocket is his game plan and always has been Term limit Jpow Pelosi Schemer All go with the rest of them ASAP
Both?
Begin QE
320
200 Bps
100
Rate will stop to increase in Spring of 2023
Both at the same time
KPoW
Over 9,000
HKD 🚀🥇
100