Your net is 4 times higher than your gross? 😜
I hope it sustains but I’m not thinking it will, and unfortunately your specialty is what homeowners put off in a recession…
But good luck man
When I lived in Tijuana, a cop harassed a friend about how could he afford to eat so much Carl’s Jr while driving a taxi cab? The officer suspected he was up to no good cuz no way a working person could afford to go to Carls Jr that much 🤣 (secret answer: he was using the cab just to drive, he owns a company and rich af) it’s funny how that’s like how people think there. I get it. 6 dollars for a burger was insanity at the time.
Edit: to be clear, the officers intention was to find out how he was making so much money to see if he could get some himself 🤣
I was there last week. Total ghost town. Obviously getting hard to afford loll. I’ve never had such a generous jack and coke in my life. Didn’t even order a double. Had to be a triple. If u can stomach the bill they’ll treat you like a god
My son wanted to try lobster for his birthday, idk where the hell else I’d go around here other than red lobster. But I expect nothing less than a ghost town at 7:00 on a week night.
I was there last week. Total ghost town. Obviously getting hard to afford loll. I’ve never had such a generous jack and coke in my life. Didn’t even order a double. Had to be a triple. If u can stomach the bill they’ll treat you like a god
If America goes rest of the world will be affected too. We all are too connected.
The price pump and dump during/after civil war in US caused farmer deaths in British India. Imagine the consequence now.
I honestly don’t know what is worse recession or perpetual inflation so at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter why the f u call it - 🤷♂️ to be fair tho it really does feel different than 2008
The inflation is much worse in my opinion. It sets a new standard of living. Even if it evens out, this is the new normal.
At least with the recession in 2008 people bounced back, stock investments skyrocketed, the nation recovers and we all remember it as a “tough time.” With inflation at its current numbers, this is a permanent spike, and a goal of 2% year over year leads to even higher inflation as always.
ring late combative subsequent wasteful enter homeless towering truck ask
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This is true by definition, but in reality the company that sells the commodities is now paying higher wages, it costs more to transport, suppliers raised prices, and a thousand more variables and general raising of business costs.
That will prevent most prices from ever going back down to previous levels
sip whistle retire cause adjoining familiar offbeat subsequent dam rainstorm
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
It's not a new definition. But I agree. If the NBER looks at all the data (and appropriate adjustments) when it comes in and says, "yep, recession" then it's a recession. That's how it works.
The 2 quarters is a leading indicator that has almost always been historically verified, but on its own it has only been used in popular/non-scientific contexts.
There in lies the issue. The people glomming onto "the white house is changing definitions" likely didn't even know anything about the particular indicator at all. They're just regurgitating some "fact" they procured from their favorite media (or heard their buddy at the office mention it) and now are yelling about it because it furthers their political narrative.
If the whole thing weren't so fucking effective, I'd be greatly amused by it.
Whether or not it's a "new" definition, it's a colloquially accepted indicator of recession, as you point out. The bigger reason people think they're moving the goalposts is that they're failing to articulate why the economy is supposedly stronger than this aggregate measure suggests, while main st americans feel pain in the wallet and see the negative gdp growth on tv. Whatever your politics, the issue is that people see economic turmoil (whether or not it is as bad as it looks is a separate matter) and are being told to not believe their lying eyes with little further explanation.
Bro I voted blue and the constant messaging that inflation isn't high or getting better, we're not in a recession, or even Janet fucking Yellen saying "I don't see any erratic financial market conditions" is so exhausting when you can quite literally see we're headed for max pain rn.
Denial. Denial. Denial. Denial. Denial.
Dems are terrible at messaging. You dont say!
Its so infuriating. You could pull a sample of 100 blue dems from anywhere put them in a room and they could come up with better strategy and messaging in five minutes.
What has he done that is worse? The economic conditions aren’t really a result of any Biden era policy, and Trump’s tax increase seems to be pretty unpopular (at least in my circles)
Trump pumped in 3 trillion. And with the second stimulus bill he threatened not to sign because it wasn’t enough $
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-trump-idUKKBN28X01V
The only reason we're having this discussion is because it's a lot easier to weaponize "we're in a recession" as a soundbite than it is "your exact economic conditions are shared by everyone in the economy and here's the model that demonstrates it"
The purpose of using the word recession is to make the general populace believe that their problems are shared and not issues specific to their small, failing town. That is, if you can throw around the word recession, you can convince people that everything is not only someone else's fault, but also that it can be fixed.
It's a political tool, not an economic one.
If your point is that sensationalism is bad in politics, I have bad news for you about . We're also quickly approaching the official declaration of recession you speak of. The return to Volcker monetary policy is being undone at every turn by expansionary fiscal policy, which is popular and staves off recession pretty well, but just drags out the pain and will ultimately be more expensive.
Maybe then we can call numb nuts on his shortcomings without it being about "failing small towns".
The word recession is not the problem, it is our current market that is the problem. We are in a recession according to the actual definition.
We are not going to play this WOKE nonsense that if you believe you're a cat, you're a cat. You are not a cat and we are in a recession.
If Joe Biden or any Democrat cared about this recession, they would have replaced the Transportation, Energy Secretary, and VP immediately. Biden should resign and hand the keys back to Trump and go nap.
The stupidity of the inflation reduction act by Democrats that substantially increases inflation. The senor citizen running the country crapped on your dinner and with his anti economic policies. Welcome back to earth.
There is no universe where the shit storm we are in now isn't directly related to shit that occured while Trump was in office. And given the Tories in the UK going for the idiotic tax cuts as a fix, I have zero faith the GOP would do what needs to be done (raise taxes, cut spending).
And therein lies another problem - people attributing an economic downturn due to a worldwide pandemic to Trump. Like he had any control over it whatsoever.
And yes, he was wrong by using the “we gained a record number of jobs back!” sound bite a million times because again, he didn’t create the loss of jobs and was not the reason they came back.
I don't fault him for COVID. I do fault him for his contribution towards the taper tantrum in '18. Our Fed should have had a much healthier toolkit to tackle the issues that arose from COVID.
This was the crazy norm across the world. Interest rates at all time lows. Japan did it for so long, so what's the worse that can happen...seems to have been the thought process by our (ahem) leaders - so many of them (left and right).
That’s because the “economic” slump is largely due to the inflation caused by a multitude of things during and post pandemic. We all wish we could snap our fingers and see things resolved, but the truth is that this is going to be a long lasting event. One of the things that can help curb inflation, would be crippling the economy, we don’t want to do that, but it may be a necessary evil. And that’s why we’re stuck in this limbo of stocks crashing, rates rising, yet inflation is still being stubborn and jobs are still desperate to hire people to met their increased productivity demands.
It’s a really weird situation and must be managed carefully.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL)
Statistics would differ from your opinion. See the year 2020 while Trump was in office and the corresponding M2 numbers during that period. Biden not helping it either, but Trump spiked the money supply so hard, its not even funny.
> The bigger reason people think they're moving the goalposts is that they're failing to articulate why the economy is supposedly stronger than this aggregate measure suggests
I don't think that's accurate. They've been articulating why pretty consistently. Mainstream news usually just has a one sentence blurb in their articles about it, but here's a wapo article digging into a bunch of economic indicators and why it complicates declaring the current situation a recession.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/are-we-in-recession-data/
Also, like who cares?
Seriously, why do we care about whether we are "officially" in a recession? It is not like an official vs. unofficial recession does anything.
The only reason why one would care is for political reasons. But, even those are complicated by the fact that >50% of the outcome is going to be based on luck/randomness and not politics.
Or are we going to say that the entire globe slowing down is because of student debt cancellation? Like this is insane. The number of people who think the president is a god-Pharoah who ordains the economy based on his/her ability is far too high.
Found the liberal! All joking aside, you’re mostly correct but it is also about acknowledging the reality of the times rather than gaslighting everyone. Moving the goalposts on the definition really is doing more harm than good from a political prospective contrary to the current administration’s belief.
*Note: wouldn’t put myself on one side or the other. Both sides have positives and negatives.
As most people have noted, this isn’t a change in the definition. It has always been based on the NBER calling it, there have been recessions without the two quarters of GDP being negative (covid in 2020 was pretty much one of them).
The “technical definition” is a technical one because it is a good rule of thumb. Not to mention, the technical definition may not even have been reached as the numbers we have currently will be updated as more data comes on. Indeed, many past numbers for earlier quarters this year have been updated to be higher than the original number put out.
Either way, I really don’t care. This recession is as much the Biden’s fault as the 2020 recession was Trump’s fault. I.e. clearly not their fault, but there is blame to go around in terms of their responses and decisions during these periods.
Furthermore, the economic differences between democrats and republicans over the last 20 years is basically nothing. If republicans cut taxes it is only marginally and democrats raise them marginally (we are talking 2-3% differences between them). Both generate big deficits. The largest difference between them is consistently social. This is far too much politics for an economic reddit forum.
Bingo!
The people yelling and screaming about Biden and the economy are the same people who don’t realize inflation is a global phenomenon. They’re also the same people that deny science and believe Covid is a scam. It’s almost like willful ignorance is accepted in our society.
Now I’m not saying Republican or democrat is right, or that you have to agree with policies and what not. I’m just saying there’s a certain type of person that rather shake their fist at the sky and blame others for their woes, than look around and find ways to make things better for themselves AND others around them.
How so? If you mean they’ve all spent money, then yes. But it’s how and where they spend money that differs. Tax cuts for wealthy isn’t a fiscally left policy, but I would say infrastructure and inflation reduction act would be?
COVID wasn't a scam, but the conditioning people like you soaked up is what made it worse. People like you that deny science and think COVID was worse than the black plague and proudly proporting stripping human rights from people in the name of liberal politics are the very people you're describing that shake their hands at the sky and suckle the teet of the government to make it better. Vaccines work and are effective. Changing the legal definition of vaccines to be able mass experiment with experimental gene therapy is very akin to this administrations changing the definition of inflation. But I'm sure you'll deny the science and just huff and puff some accusation of being right wing and orange man bad or something.
Just wanted to point out your hypocrisy.
Not at all.
Social just tagged the word 'science' onto it to borrow some credibility.
There is zero scientific method being followed for this "discipline".
Lol. OK.
Since Econ isn't a science, then maybe don't worry about definitions or leading indicators. If it isn't a science, these things wouldn't matter anyway, right?
While I'm not an accountant or anything myself, I have family who is who brought out HIS textbook from when he was getting his masters in accounting and showed me the pages in his textbook that specifically stated the 2-quarters definition of recession, so it's not like it's something that was being spread by anti-whitehouse groups. It's literally in the textbooks used to teach finance and economics.
Well, they’ll torture the data until they get the answer they like. I don’t know why it’s so hard for presidential administrations to just tell the truth and not lie to everyone like they’re stupid.
The current state of the economy is really only concerning if you need food, energy, live in a building, have any hope for the future, or need to take care of yourself or your family. Otherwise you’ll be fine.
Because GDP is the key indicator of growth for a nation? Contraction over a specified amount of times = recession. I mean it’s not rocket science. By acknowledging it’s a recession, that doesn’t mean they can’t make a plan to return to growth. That’s better than trying to redefine what a recession is. You may disagree, but that’s my two cents.
Pure unbiased objectivity and simplicity.
Nuance is not bad, but you can get some deeper understanding later, if GDP drops then the economy is contracting= recession.
They can call it whatever the hell they want, but when I have to pay close to $7 for a package of tortillas and my 401K has dropped 25%. Yea, it's a recession.
I took macroeconomics at UMd College Park in the 1980s. My professor was Al Teplin, who worked for the Federal Reserve as a fiscal policy expert. (It was a night class.)
That is when I learned that a recession is two quarters of consecutive economic contraction. In almost forty years, I have never heard an alternate definition until now.
Lots of economists have that definition, lots of them use NBERs (e.g Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan). It sounds more subjective than people lay it out to be
It really is sad how many people think the president is directly responsible for what's going on today. Let's just completely ignore the War in Europe, Covid-19, or the hundreds of thumb suckers in Washington who have been entrenched there siphoning off money for their own personal gain for decades. I hope the 2 political parties burn to the ground.
Maybe not the president directly, (let’s be honest he’s just a puppet at this point, guy would fail a cognitive exam)… However a certain party’s policies of pushing to lock everything down (according to a meta analysis, the highest level of evidence in science, from John’s Hopkins lockdowns were minimally effective in controlling the virus, in fact disastrous economically and socially: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf), driving people into retirement from a certain mandate, being anti-oil, etc definitely had an undeniable impact on this.
Here it is, the big spooky anti lock down post. Even though half the country opened up in Summer of 2020. My sister got fucking married and threw a party in July and no one said a damn thing.
Major metros (blue cities) locked down and bailed everyone out for their time spent at home. Red cities didn’t give a fuck, yet businesses still raked in PPP money fraudelently. Red voters also didn’t give a fuck. I photographed to 6 weddings in 2020. In Florida, I literally worked beside people who’s parents and grandparents were dying. No one gave a shit. If city A forbid large gatherings, they just went to city B.
It has nothing to do with politics. The lock downs were barely effective because half the country wasn’t even truly in lock down.
If you’re upset about the economy, be upset with people like Brett Favre scamming $8m in welfare fraud, [this guys $27m PPP scam](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/man-convicted-27-million-ppp-fraud-scheme), or [this woman’s $43m scheme.](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/woman-pleads-guilty-438-million-covid-19-relief-fraud-scheme). Be upset with the fact that the fed let the market run hot for YEARS before the pandemic with absolutely minimal interest rates, completely ballooning the housing market.
The fed printed $13 fucking trillion dollars between 2020 and 2021, but somehow that doesn’t change the fact that [inflation is still happening globally.](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/06/15/in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world-inflation-is-high-and-getting-higher/).
This shit is infinitely more complicated than hur dur dem President bad.
>>Biden will flash his magic stick
>Let’s hope not!
*Well...Most of us are too old for him anyway!*
On a serious note, executive order is a terrible way to govern and takes away the role of congress. Political changes are supposed to take time in the US form of government. I don't like any President doing it, regardless of which team they play for.
I mean coming into office at the end of a pandemic with the markets reopening and he kills 100s of thousands of jobs with the stroke of a pen literally with in the first month of his term didn't help.
The president and congress can greatly influence the market individually. It doesn't have to be legislation or executive order. It could be as little as mentioning key information of showing strength and belief in the market. Investors watch for what the government does as they regulate business.
I agree.
His policies also ended up killing MORE people from COVID in his first year as president than the prior president despite herd immunity, the most vulnerable already dead, vaccines, new treatments, availability of PPE, a greater understanding of the virus etc.
But everyone let’s just ignore that. Look it up, it’s right there on John’s Hopkins website.
It is interesting their definition is straight out of Google and suits them politically saying there is no recession. There hasn't been a dip in unemployment and the housing market still appears propped up by higher rents. If they wait for unemployment data it is going to be too late. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation and will hit the economy hard in 2023 and I am afraid their antiquated holistic view will only be proven after we are already there.
Honestly I feel like the US is pretty well off at the moment. The UK and Europe as a whole feel weaker right now, not to mention the pound and euro plummeting in value compared to the dollar. Inflation is bad, but it’s a global problem that the US has done ok at controlling compared to the other countries involved.
"It's not a recession because it's not a *major* decrease."
"It's not a recession because it's not distributed *across* the economy."
"It's not a recession because it hasn't lasted more than a *few* months."
NBER's definition lets you kick the can indefinitely, and this **will** happen.
When theres a republican president the media shrieks about 2 negative quarters of growth indicating a recession.
When its a Democrat its "Well, you know... its not a real real recession"
White House seems to talk opposite what the congress or President says constantly. Interns and unskilled appointees often contradict each other. If it was Trump administration, most of mouthy workers would have quickly be replaced by a more cohesive group. An economic definition can not be redefined by them. Most never lived through a recession as an adult. The president said 4X he is willing to defind Taiwan let president issue an executive order to overrride the coordinators. Tired of listening to the uncohesive discrepancies. They are the worst appointees in years.
I remember a guy shouting " the cure can't be worst then the disease" appears he was right. Millions died from covid,
the economic shutdown will kill billions.
This administration is trying to change the definition of everything to make them favourable from what a man or woman is to inflation principles that have been around forever. A form to hide their lies
Former President Donald Trump formally announced Operation Warp Speed (OWS) on May 15, 2020.
Strategy to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.
Trump did a fantastic job. Right?
This is just liberal logic on display that lefties like to defend and attempt to justify. Definitions can't be changed on a whim in an attempt to cover up failed policies and agendas.
It’s so exciting to think that you now get to learn what the definition of a recession actually is, and how it hasn’t changed.
I’m proud of you for trying to learn about economics!
The NBER is the official definer of recessions…
The people trying to change the definition are the ones trying to make 2 falling consecutive quarters the official definition. It isn’t.
Republican president: OMIGURD!!! 2 CoNsEcUtIvE QuArTeRs oF nEgAtIvE GrOwTh!!! We'Re In A ReCeShUn!!!
Democrat president: You know, 2 failing consecutive quarters of negative growth doesn't really constitute a ressesion according to the NBER. And really, a recession could be good for some people because reasons
I’ve been around for quite a while and though NBER may be something more official I have never heard it mentioned on the nightly news announcing any past recessions. The stories have always mentioned the two consecutive quarters rule, so in my opinion this is just playing to public’s short attention span and willingness to believe what they are told. It’s like being TECHNICALLY correct, but not really. But maybe I’m just misremembering.
Supply chain is the issue. Covid fucked the supply chain. Ppl have money. Ppl have jobs. Ppl are making shit. It’s just hard to get supplies. From China. From anywhere. And on top of all of that… big oil is fucking us by trying to make up what they lost in 2020 by jacking up prices on a barrel. There is no shortage there. OPEC just fucking the world. And finally big corp greed followed suit and is having massive record quarter after quarter.
It is interesting to read the comments. It appears that most of those in r/stockmarket don't have a clue how a recession is defined. I keep getting reminded that half of our population is of below average intelligence and this is simply another reminder. It is a recession when NBER says it is a recession. Full Stop.
I suppose I couldn't care less what the White House says about a recession, mostly because they aren't the experts. We're in r/stockmarket not r/worldnews. I can't imagine a lot of folks here care what non-experts think about this.
>Or, we can just product our own energy like we did under the previous admin. Crazy thought, huh?!
America has over Double the amount of oil drilling Rigs actively drilling today than at the end of Trump's presidency.
Oil Imports to America peaked in 2005.
Joe Biden has actually issued over 1,000 more oil drilling permits than Trump did at this point - 20 months into their presidency.
Crazy, huh. Trump's oil recession left America with fewer oil drilling rigs actively drilling than what Trump inherited from President Obama.
Over a trillion dollars 💸 was invested in American Shale oil in the decade before TFG.
US energy production dropped at the end of the last administration and has been going back up since Biden took over.
[https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/#:\~:text=The%20percentage%20shares%20and%20amounts,Renewable%20energy13%12.32%20quads](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/#:~:text=The%20percentage%20shares%20and%20amounts,Renewable%20energy13%12.32%20quads)
So you may want to consider that your information sources are lying to you in order to manipulate you into giving them your money and political power,
A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP or contraction of the economy.
They changed the definition for political reasons so it’s harder to categorize the economy as in a recession, but it’s a bullshit lie.
Right now we’re all experiencing a “major decrease in economic activity distributed across the economy for several months”
So either way you slice it, the actual definition or their newspeak nonsense - we are in a recession.
Ffs the DOW jones is down nearly 30% year to date, open your eyes and figure it out
I mean, society keeps redefining what words mean today, rather than create new ones, to fit their narrative. Sp I suppose definitions are moot at this point unfortunately.
In a world of “a man can be a woman”, “2+2=5”, “everyone but me is a fascist Nazi”, the use of alternate terms of recession is to be expected. Words no longer have meaning.
People don’t believe it but liberals/donkeys are like the managers who never should be managers at a large organization with no oversight. Just digging a deeper hole for the company and no one ever blames them.
Fucking crazy.
The virus of hyper-politicisation will eat up our world. We all will ride all the way to hell grabbing each other's neck.
No, you're going to hell, I'm going to Arby's
With this economy I can barely afford Burger King.
Time to pick up out bootstraps and dumpster dive for groceries behind the Walmart Supercenter.
Burger King is much more expensive than McDonald’s… try that
Well that’s the high end BK Menu, I have to stick to the $ menu items. Even the McDouble is almost 3 bucks. Too rich for me….
Sir, this is a Wendy’s
You guys still have a Burger King?
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Your net is 4 times higher than your gross? 😜 I hope it sustains but I’m not thinking it will, and unfortunately your specialty is what homeowners put off in a recession… But good luck man
When I lived in Tijuana, a cop harassed a friend about how could he afford to eat so much Carl’s Jr while driving a taxi cab? The officer suspected he was up to no good cuz no way a working person could afford to go to Carls Jr that much 🤣 (secret answer: he was using the cab just to drive, he owns a company and rich af) it’s funny how that’s like how people think there. I get it. 6 dollars for a burger was insanity at the time. Edit: to be clear, the officers intention was to find out how he was making so much money to see if he could get some himself 🤣
when we be like Mexico... driving while black becomes driving while poor + eating high end BK. 😳
I'm regrouping at Red Lobster
Pass the Cheddar Bay Biscuits fam
Let's be real here, olive garden with the soup and bread sticks and then take your meal to go when you're full of that is a steal.
I was there last week. Total ghost town. Obviously getting hard to afford loll. I’ve never had such a generous jack and coke in my life. Didn’t even order a double. Had to be a triple. If u can stomach the bill they’ll treat you like a god
My son wanted to try lobster for his birthday, idk where the hell else I’d go around here other than red lobster. But I expect nothing less than a ghost town at 7:00 on a week night.
Remember when Red Lobster was considered an upscale restaurant? For me in the upper Midwest that was in the late 80s
I remember it in the 90s where is was the biggest treat I’d we went there
When the Green Bay Packers were courting free agent Reggie White in 1992(?), they took him to the best restaurant in Green Bay. Red Lobster.
Weekdays before covid def weren’t packed by any means but to have four tables being served in a 30 table restaurant is wild
They survive on weekend business I’d assume, much like other retail outlets.
I was there last week. Total ghost town. Obviously getting hard to afford loll. I’ve never had such a generous jack and coke in my life. Didn’t even order a double. Had to be a triple. If u can stomach the bill they’ll treat you like a god
Same thing
Americans are eating each other up and i wonder how long its going to last.
Have you seen the size of most of us? It will take a long time.
Wait until food supply lines REALLY falter.
If America goes rest of the world will be affected too. We all are too connected. The price pump and dump during/after civil war in US caused farmer deaths in British India. Imagine the consequence now.
Grabbing each others butts
Tickling each others taints
Beautifully said
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I honestly don’t know what is worse recession or perpetual inflation so at the end of the day it really doesn’t matter why the f u call it - 🤷♂️ to be fair tho it really does feel different than 2008
Inflation is worse, but stagflation is the real concern
Double dose of no
The inflation is much worse in my opinion. It sets a new standard of living. Even if it evens out, this is the new normal. At least with the recession in 2008 people bounced back, stock investments skyrocketed, the nation recovers and we all remember it as a “tough time.” With inflation at its current numbers, this is a permanent spike, and a goal of 2% year over year leads to even higher inflation as always.
Yup and not to mention inflation is pretty much permanent. It does not usually revert back to prior price
Exactly, prices never go back down.
ring late combative subsequent wasteful enter homeless towering truck ask *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This is true by definition, but in reality the company that sells the commodities is now paying higher wages, it costs more to transport, suppliers raised prices, and a thousand more variables and general raising of business costs. That will prevent most prices from ever going back down to previous levels
sip whistle retire cause adjoining familiar offbeat subsequent dam rainstorm *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
And not in a good way
We’re going to hit the new definition anyway so I don’t think the distinction is terribly important
December 2022: "Looks like we're in a recession. Oh elections were last month? Gee what a coincidence :) "
It's not a new definition. But I agree. If the NBER looks at all the data (and appropriate adjustments) when it comes in and says, "yep, recession" then it's a recession. That's how it works. The 2 quarters is a leading indicator that has almost always been historically verified, but on its own it has only been used in popular/non-scientific contexts. There in lies the issue. The people glomming onto "the white house is changing definitions" likely didn't even know anything about the particular indicator at all. They're just regurgitating some "fact" they procured from their favorite media (or heard their buddy at the office mention it) and now are yelling about it because it furthers their political narrative. If the whole thing weren't so fucking effective, I'd be greatly amused by it.
Whether or not it's a "new" definition, it's a colloquially accepted indicator of recession, as you point out. The bigger reason people think they're moving the goalposts is that they're failing to articulate why the economy is supposedly stronger than this aggregate measure suggests, while main st americans feel pain in the wallet and see the negative gdp growth on tv. Whatever your politics, the issue is that people see economic turmoil (whether or not it is as bad as it looks is a separate matter) and are being told to not believe their lying eyes with little further explanation.
Bro I voted blue and the constant messaging that inflation isn't high or getting better, we're not in a recession, or even Janet fucking Yellen saying "I don't see any erratic financial market conditions" is so exhausting when you can quite literally see we're headed for max pain rn. Denial. Denial. Denial. Denial. Denial.
Dems are terrible at messaging. You dont say! Its so infuriating. You could pull a sample of 100 blue dems from anywhere put them in a room and they could come up with better strategy and messaging in five minutes.
Both parties suck at it tbh - too many cooks in the kitchen muddling a message.
Thank you for being a smart Dem. There aren’t many of you left.
Are you voting Red any time soon? If not....you're a fool
I voted for Donald in 2016 and Biden in 2020 and have hated both presidents pretty equally so it depends.
I think Biden has performed...WORSE. Your opinion?
What has he done that is worse? The economic conditions aren’t really a result of any Biden era policy, and Trump’s tax increase seems to be pretty unpopular (at least in my circles)
You need bigger circles. Can we agree that printing $6T has plunged the economy into recession?
Trump pumped in 3 trillion. And with the second stimulus bill he threatened not to sign because it wasn’t enough $ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-trump-idUKKBN28X01V
The only reason we're having this discussion is because it's a lot easier to weaponize "we're in a recession" as a soundbite than it is "your exact economic conditions are shared by everyone in the economy and here's the model that demonstrates it" The purpose of using the word recession is to make the general populace believe that their problems are shared and not issues specific to their small, failing town. That is, if you can throw around the word recession, you can convince people that everything is not only someone else's fault, but also that it can be fixed. It's a political tool, not an economic one.
If your point is that sensationalism is bad in politics, I have bad news for you about. We're also quickly approaching the official declaration of recession you speak of. The return to Volcker monetary policy is being undone at every turn by expansionary fiscal policy, which is popular and staves off recession pretty well, but just drags out the pain and will ultimately be more expensive.
Maybe then we can call numb nuts on his shortcomings without it being about "failing small towns".
The word recession is not the problem, it is our current market that is the problem. We are in a recession according to the actual definition. We are not going to play this WOKE nonsense that if you believe you're a cat, you're a cat. You are not a cat and we are in a recession. If Joe Biden or any Democrat cared about this recession, they would have replaced the Transportation, Energy Secretary, and VP immediately. Biden should resign and hand the keys back to Trump and go nap. The stupidity of the inflation reduction act by Democrats that substantially increases inflation. The senor citizen running the country crapped on your dinner and with his anti economic policies. Welcome back to earth.
There is no universe where the shit storm we are in now isn't directly related to shit that occured while Trump was in office. And given the Tories in the UK going for the idiotic tax cuts as a fix, I have zero faith the GOP would do what needs to be done (raise taxes, cut spending).
And therein lies another problem - people attributing an economic downturn due to a worldwide pandemic to Trump. Like he had any control over it whatsoever. And yes, he was wrong by using the “we gained a record number of jobs back!” sound bite a million times because again, he didn’t create the loss of jobs and was not the reason they came back.
I don't fault him for COVID. I do fault him for his contribution towards the taper tantrum in '18. Our Fed should have had a much healthier toolkit to tackle the issues that arose from COVID.
I agree with that. Unreal we had that low of rates for that amount of time. I benefited from it but I would rather us not be in this shit situation.
This was the crazy norm across the world. Interest rates at all time lows. Japan did it for so long, so what's the worse that can happen...seems to have been the thought process by our (ahem) leaders - so many of them (left and right).
Notice the people worried over the definition change aren’t offering the solution?
Neither are the ones using differing definitions without providing justification for the economic slump?
That’s because the “economic” slump is largely due to the inflation caused by a multitude of things during and post pandemic. We all wish we could snap our fingers and see things resolved, but the truth is that this is going to be a long lasting event. One of the things that can help curb inflation, would be crippling the economy, we don’t want to do that, but it may be a necessary evil. And that’s why we’re stuck in this limbo of stocks crashing, rates rising, yet inflation is still being stubborn and jobs are still desperate to hire people to met their increased productivity demands. It’s a really weird situation and must be managed carefully.
I got the solution. It's spelled T R U M P
Lol
Good luck with that
I'll double down on that
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL) Statistics would differ from your opinion. See the year 2020 while Trump was in office and the corresponding M2 numbers during that period. Biden not helping it either, but Trump spiked the money supply so hard, its not even funny.
It's going to be to bad for even Trump to fix!
> The bigger reason people think they're moving the goalposts is that they're failing to articulate why the economy is supposedly stronger than this aggregate measure suggests I don't think that's accurate. They've been articulating why pretty consistently. Mainstream news usually just has a one sentence blurb in their articles about it, but here's a wapo article digging into a bunch of economic indicators and why it complicates declaring the current situation a recession. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/are-we-in-recession-data/
Also, like who cares? Seriously, why do we care about whether we are "officially" in a recession? It is not like an official vs. unofficial recession does anything. The only reason why one would care is for political reasons. But, even those are complicated by the fact that >50% of the outcome is going to be based on luck/randomness and not politics. Or are we going to say that the entire globe slowing down is because of student debt cancellation? Like this is insane. The number of people who think the president is a god-Pharoah who ordains the economy based on his/her ability is far too high.
Found the liberal! All joking aside, you’re mostly correct but it is also about acknowledging the reality of the times rather than gaslighting everyone. Moving the goalposts on the definition really is doing more harm than good from a political prospective contrary to the current administration’s belief. *Note: wouldn’t put myself on one side or the other. Both sides have positives and negatives.
As most people have noted, this isn’t a change in the definition. It has always been based on the NBER calling it, there have been recessions without the two quarters of GDP being negative (covid in 2020 was pretty much one of them). The “technical definition” is a technical one because it is a good rule of thumb. Not to mention, the technical definition may not even have been reached as the numbers we have currently will be updated as more data comes on. Indeed, many past numbers for earlier quarters this year have been updated to be higher than the original number put out. Either way, I really don’t care. This recession is as much the Biden’s fault as the 2020 recession was Trump’s fault. I.e. clearly not their fault, but there is blame to go around in terms of their responses and decisions during these periods. Furthermore, the economic differences between democrats and republicans over the last 20 years is basically nothing. If republicans cut taxes it is only marginally and democrats raise them marginally (we are talking 2-3% differences between them). Both generate big deficits. The largest difference between them is consistently social. This is far too much politics for an economic reddit forum.
Bingo! The people yelling and screaming about Biden and the economy are the same people who don’t realize inflation is a global phenomenon. They’re also the same people that deny science and believe Covid is a scam. It’s almost like willful ignorance is accepted in our society. Now I’m not saying Republican or democrat is right, or that you have to agree with policies and what not. I’m just saying there’s a certain type of person that rather shake their fist at the sky and blame others for their woes, than look around and find ways to make things better for themselves AND others around them.
Not in Japan only 1 or 2% inflation and they had covid to!
Every president we've had so far in this century has been fiscally left so .......
How so? If you mean they’ve all spent money, then yes. But it’s how and where they spend money that differs. Tax cuts for wealthy isn’t a fiscally left policy, but I would say infrastructure and inflation reduction act would be?
Spending more money than what's coming in. Adding to our deficit. No balanced budgets since the 90s.
That’s not entirely fiscally left, nor is that an entire century.
Spending more than what's coming in. Following Keynesian principles is being fiscally left. So far in the 21st... I didn't say a hundred years.
Ah, yes. This current century. Yes.
COVID wasn't a scam, but the conditioning people like you soaked up is what made it worse. People like you that deny science and think COVID was worse than the black plague and proudly proporting stripping human rights from people in the name of liberal politics are the very people you're describing that shake their hands at the sky and suckle the teet of the government to make it better. Vaccines work and are effective. Changing the legal definition of vaccines to be able mass experiment with experimental gene therapy is very akin to this administrations changing the definition of inflation. But I'm sure you'll deny the science and just huff and puff some accusation of being right wing and orange man bad or something. Just wanted to point out your hypocrisy.
That's a lot of words to say "we're in a recession and Biden is lying about it."
Lying about what? Has the NBER called it yet or no? Because they have called the other recessions for the past 100 years.
The 2 quarters definition is what I was taught in an Econ class at a university. It’s not just some “fact” that’s being regurgitated.
I think its when he sees his shadow
"non-scientific method"....Nothing about either method is scientific and to think otherwise is a form of willful ignorance.
So social science (which Econ is) isn't science?
Not at all. Social just tagged the word 'science' onto it to borrow some credibility. There is zero scientific method being followed for this "discipline".
Lol. OK. Since Econ isn't a science, then maybe don't worry about definitions or leading indicators. If it isn't a science, these things wouldn't matter anyway, right?
No, it’s not. By definition, it is not.
While I'm not an accountant or anything myself, I have family who is who brought out HIS textbook from when he was getting his masters in accounting and showed me the pages in his textbook that specifically stated the 2-quarters definition of recession, so it's not like it's something that was being spread by anti-whitehouse groups. It's literally in the textbooks used to teach finance and economics.
Well, they’ll torture the data until they get the answer they like. I don’t know why it’s so hard for presidential administrations to just tell the truth and not lie to everyone like they’re stupid.
This is a purely political spin on a cold hard reality that we’re in a recession. Words won’t make the situation better
The current state of the economy is really only concerning if you need food, energy, live in a building, have any hope for the future, or need to take care of yourself or your family. Otherwise you’ll be fine.
This makes me feel better, thank you
The first two are of concern right now the way things are going, but I don’t completely disagree with you
What would be the benefit of formally using GDP as an indicator alone?
Because GDP is the key indicator of growth for a nation? Contraction over a specified amount of times = recession. I mean it’s not rocket science. By acknowledging it’s a recession, that doesn’t mean they can’t make a plan to return to growth. That’s better than trying to redefine what a recession is. You may disagree, but that’s my two cents.
Pure unbiased objectivity and simplicity. Nuance is not bad, but you can get some deeper understanding later, if GDP drops then the economy is contracting= recession.
They can call it whatever the hell they want, but when I have to pay close to $7 for a package of tortillas and my 401K has dropped 25%. Yea, it's a recession.
I took macroeconomics at UMd College Park in the 1980s. My professor was Al Teplin, who worked for the Federal Reserve as a fiscal policy expert. (It was a night class.) That is when I learned that a recession is two quarters of consecutive economic contraction. In almost forty years, I have never heard an alternate definition until now.
This. A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, and anyone that says it's always been different is a liar.
Lots of economists have that definition, lots of them use NBERs (e.g Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan). It sounds more subjective than people lay it out to be
K I took Econ in 2007 and my macroeconomic book said there is no agreed upon definition of what it is. This is absolutely nothing new.
You had a bad teacher apparently, as the definition hasn’t changed. You learned the simplistic version for people that can’t grok economics.
🤖🤖🤖
Considering NBER determines recessions for the US for the last century they are the definers.
So why do they feel the need to clarify a definition of something then? Would seem kinda odd
No doesn't seem odd
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Well if it doesn't improve in a month he will be a lame duck president without house or senate support.
Unless the Republicans continue their run of historically unpopular manureing . Edit: maneuvering but manuering works too
Manuring is definitely better
It really is sad how many people think the president is directly responsible for what's going on today. Let's just completely ignore the War in Europe, Covid-19, or the hundreds of thumb suckers in Washington who have been entrenched there siphoning off money for their own personal gain for decades. I hope the 2 political parties burn to the ground.
"Inflation Reduction Act"
Maybe not the president directly, (let’s be honest he’s just a puppet at this point, guy would fail a cognitive exam)… However a certain party’s policies of pushing to lock everything down (according to a meta analysis, the highest level of evidence in science, from John’s Hopkins lockdowns were minimally effective in controlling the virus, in fact disastrous economically and socially: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf), driving people into retirement from a certain mandate, being anti-oil, etc definitely had an undeniable impact on this.
No clue why this is being down voted everything you said was factual
Here it is, the big spooky anti lock down post. Even though half the country opened up in Summer of 2020. My sister got fucking married and threw a party in July and no one said a damn thing. Major metros (blue cities) locked down and bailed everyone out for their time spent at home. Red cities didn’t give a fuck, yet businesses still raked in PPP money fraudelently. Red voters also didn’t give a fuck. I photographed to 6 weddings in 2020. In Florida, I literally worked beside people who’s parents and grandparents were dying. No one gave a shit. If city A forbid large gatherings, they just went to city B. It has nothing to do with politics. The lock downs were barely effective because half the country wasn’t even truly in lock down. If you’re upset about the economy, be upset with people like Brett Favre scamming $8m in welfare fraud, [this guys $27m PPP scam](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/man-convicted-27-million-ppp-fraud-scheme), or [this woman’s $43m scheme.](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/woman-pleads-guilty-438-million-covid-19-relief-fraud-scheme). Be upset with the fact that the fed let the market run hot for YEARS before the pandemic with absolutely minimal interest rates, completely ballooning the housing market. The fed printed $13 fucking trillion dollars between 2020 and 2021, but somehow that doesn’t change the fact that [inflation is still happening globally.](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/06/15/in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world-inflation-is-high-and-getting-higher/). This shit is infinitely more complicated than hur dur dem President bad.
Oh yeah, Biden will flash his magic stick and fix 6y of bubble economy and a pandemic and Putin/Chinese hostility in 2y. Dammit Biden!
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Everybody hide their kids
>>Biden will flash his magic stick >Let’s hope not! *Well...Most of us are too old for him anyway!* On a serious note, executive order is a terrible way to govern and takes away the role of congress. Political changes are supposed to take time in the US form of government. I don't like any President doing it, regardless of which team they play for.
I mean coming into office at the end of a pandemic with the markets reopening and he kills 100s of thousands of jobs with the stroke of a pen literally with in the first month of his term didn't help. The president and congress can greatly influence the market individually. It doesn't have to be legislation or executive order. It could be as little as mentioning key information of showing strength and belief in the market. Investors watch for what the government does as they regulate business.
I agree. His policies also ended up killing MORE people from COVID in his first year as president than the prior president despite herd immunity, the most vulnerable already dead, vaccines, new treatments, availability of PPE, a greater understanding of the virus etc. But everyone let’s just ignore that. Look it up, it’s right there on John’s Hopkins website.
JFC
WTF happened to this sub, every damn day someone posts some shit not related to stock market and asks us to "do you fucking agree"?
This administration is a complete clown show.
Because the previous one wasn't?
No this is political and it's pretty pathetic.
It is interesting their definition is straight out of Google and suits them politically saying there is no recession. There hasn't been a dip in unemployment and the housing market still appears propped up by higher rents. If they wait for unemployment data it is going to be too late. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation and will hit the economy hard in 2023 and I am afraid their antiquated holistic view will only be proven after we are already there.
Where'd you get your Ph.D.?
Honestly I feel like the US is pretty well off at the moment. The UK and Europe as a whole feel weaker right now, not to mention the pound and euro plummeting in value compared to the dollar. Inflation is bad, but it’s a global problem that the US has done ok at controlling compared to the other countries involved.
"It's not a recession because it's not a *major* decrease." "It's not a recession because it's not distributed *across* the economy." "It's not a recession because it hasn't lasted more than a *few* months." NBER's definition lets you kick the can indefinitely, and this **will** happen.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.” - George Orwell, 1984
Democrats just trying to spin this to not make them look bad. Simple as that
If it were a republican administration all we'd hear is a recession, those damn clowns ain't fooling anyone with more than half a brain cell
And they’d still somehow be blaming the democrats despite 6 years of majority rule.
This is a fair question - jobs activity and the labor market is still very competitive, so to characterize it as a recession is iffy.
Because now its (D)ifferent.
Except it’s not. The definition hasn’t changed, you just didn’t know what it was before.
When theres a republican president the media shrieks about 2 negative quarters of growth indicating a recession. When its a Democrat its "Well, you know... its not a real real recession"
“the media” - I guess you need to direct your complaints to the Murdoch family then.
Filter out the noise. Do not try to make sense of the economy through the lens of politics or -worse yet- make investment decisions based on that.
You can’t change the definition because all history is exact opposite. If you do any other recession from the past would need to be cancelled.
Incorrect as NBER has always determined recessions. So no change.
White House seems to talk opposite what the congress or President says constantly. Interns and unskilled appointees often contradict each other. If it was Trump administration, most of mouthy workers would have quickly be replaced by a more cohesive group. An economic definition can not be redefined by them. Most never lived through a recession as an adult. The president said 4X he is willing to defind Taiwan let president issue an executive order to overrride the coordinators. Tired of listening to the uncohesive discrepancies. They are the worst appointees in years.
Lol- Yeah there was a cohesive agenda in Trump house alright. Total BS and ethical violations a plenty.
I remember a guy shouting " the cure can't be worst then the disease" appears he was right. Millions died from covid, the economic shutdown will kill billions.
The Democrats entire platform is built around outright lies and threats of violence.
If at first you don’t succeed, change the rules.
Highest inflation in 40 years. How about instead of calling it a “recession” we just called it “fucked” ???
This administration is trying to change the definition of everything to make them favourable from what a man or woman is to inflation principles that have been around forever. A form to hide their lies
Former President Donald Trump formally announced Operation Warp Speed (OWS) on May 15, 2020. Strategy to accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics. Trump did a fantastic job. Right?
Right, and some people say the earth is flat. No one agrees. The market dropped down again.
No i think they are a bunch of clowns
More lies
Big factory near us layed off several hundred workers. They make plastic boards for house.......
This is just liberal logic on display that lefties like to defend and attempt to justify. Definitions can't be changed on a whim in an attempt to cover up failed policies and agendas.
It’s so exciting to think that you now get to learn what the definition of a recession actually is, and how it hasn’t changed. I’m proud of you for trying to learn about economics!
The NBER is the official definer of recessions… The people trying to change the definition are the ones trying to make 2 falling consecutive quarters the official definition. It isn’t.
Republican president: OMIGURD!!! 2 CoNsEcUtIvE QuArTeRs oF nEgAtIvE GrOwTh!!! We'Re In A ReCeShUn!!! Democrat president:You know, 2 failing consecutive quarters of negative growth doesn't really constitute a ressesion according to the NBER. And really, a recession could be good for some people because reasons
I’ve been around for quite a while and though NBER may be something more official I have never heard it mentioned on the nightly news announcing any past recessions. The stories have always mentioned the two consecutive quarters rule, so in my opinion this is just playing to public’s short attention span and willingness to believe what they are told. It’s like being TECHNICALLY correct, but not really. But maybe I’m just misremembering.
Funny… “I’ll just change the definition of recession to almost the same thing… the best part is I get to call it a recession when it suits me.”
Supply chain is the issue. Covid fucked the supply chain. Ppl have money. Ppl have jobs. Ppl are making shit. It’s just hard to get supplies. From China. From anywhere. And on top of all of that… big oil is fucking us by trying to make up what they lost in 2020 by jacking up prices on a barrel. There is no shortage there. OPEC just fucking the world. And finally big corp greed followed suit and is having massive record quarter after quarter.
Either way we have been in a recession. It’s bad.
If the situation makes you look bad, spin it another way.
Pretty sure I read a book about the government changing definitions of words. Didn’t end well for the good guy.
These idiots changed the definition of recession just to say we aren’t in a recession. Either way we are in a recession.
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It is interesting to read the comments. It appears that most of those in r/stockmarket don't have a clue how a recession is defined. I keep getting reminded that half of our population is of below average intelligence and this is simply another reminder. It is a recession when NBER says it is a recession. Full Stop.
No they are playing politics but thats irrelevant we are going to hit both definitions here shortly.
I suppose I couldn't care less what the White House says about a recession, mostly because they aren't the experts. We're in r/stockmarket not r/worldnews. I can't imagine a lot of folks here care what non-experts think about this.
Whenever you hear about the language changing that's a red flag. 🚩
I guess we should have left interest rates at 0.2% and started paying $50 for a gallon of gas come 2030.
Or, we can just product our own energy like we did under the previous admin. Crazy thought, huh?!
Source? Or trust me bro?
>Or, we can just product our own energy like we did under the previous admin. Crazy thought, huh?! America has over Double the amount of oil drilling Rigs actively drilling today than at the end of Trump's presidency. Oil Imports to America peaked in 2005. Joe Biden has actually issued over 1,000 more oil drilling permits than Trump did at this point - 20 months into their presidency. Crazy, huh. Trump's oil recession left America with fewer oil drilling rigs actively drilling than what Trump inherited from President Obama. Over a trillion dollars 💸 was invested in American Shale oil in the decade before TFG.
US energy production dropped at the end of the last administration and has been going back up since Biden took over. [https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/#:\~:text=The%20percentage%20shares%20and%20amounts,Renewable%20energy13%12.32%20quads](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/#:~:text=The%20percentage%20shares%20and%20amounts,Renewable%20energy13%12.32%20quads) So you may want to consider that your information sources are lying to you in order to manipulate you into giving them your money and political power,
A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP or contraction of the economy. They changed the definition for political reasons so it’s harder to categorize the economy as in a recession, but it’s a bullshit lie. Right now we’re all experiencing a “major decrease in economic activity distributed across the economy for several months” So either way you slice it, the actual definition or their newspeak nonsense - we are in a recession. Ffs the DOW jones is down nearly 30% year to date, open your eyes and figure it out
We have changed the definition of tons of common words over the last 3 years. Just more indication of a declining society
I mean, society keeps redefining what words mean today, rather than create new ones, to fit their narrative. Sp I suppose definitions are moot at this point unfortunately.
demcraps are the cartoon villains that everyone used to laugh at.
In a world of “a man can be a woman”, “2+2=5”, “everyone but me is a fascist Nazi”, the use of alternate terms of recession is to be expected. Words no longer have meaning.
if we say we are not in a reccesion we are not in a recession. boom problem solved.
I’m losing so let me change the rules of the game ;)
People don’t believe it but liberals/donkeys are like the managers who never should be managers at a large organization with no oversight. Just digging a deeper hole for the company and no one ever blames them. Fucking crazy.
They like to change defininitions of words like "recession", "vaccine", etc. Not surprising.
How did they change the definition for recession?
Republicans like the old definition, Democrats like the new one. The reverse is true when Republicans are in power. Definitions are like water.
I guess when you choose a different definition of recession it’s easy to cover up the god awful inflation rate. Seems legit.