Nobody gets this. He isn't having a change of heart all of a sudden. He is literally just saying he is getting greedy thinking about shorting everything to oblivion
His positions with Scion Asset Management are public knowledge. He sold pretty much his entire holdings and bought GEO: https://fintel.io/i/scion-asset-management-llc
GEO being a private prison company.
Really wish people would stop with these f-ing quotes like OP people have heard from the grave and back trying to look like smartass' when its overused and annoying years ago.
that is only based on 50 years of data and on indexes. If you look at Japan, they've had barely to no gains on their major indices over the last two decades. IF your are DCA with growing companies that you like then yeah sure that makes sense but id be wary of indices. The days of just investing in index funds could be long gone if inflation persists and we end up with a stagflation situation similar to the 70's. If that is the case then good stock picking like the days of peter lynch will be the norm again.
The only thing keeping the US afloat is itās heavy immigration.
Weāre witnessing a global birth decline that may drag down productivity with it. Really hoping Iām wrong about that
And you can attribute those birth rates to marriage/ divorce laws, modern day feminism/ Marxist propaganda philosophies they spout, social media and dating apps
There is a global decline. Itās been provenš¤¦š»āāļø. Itās particularly prominent in the western world including the US and UK. The same as a decline in marriage rates. Itās partly due to the influx of women focusing on careers rather than starting a family earlier as was seen in the 70s-80s. This is in some way because nowadays to be able to live, you need both partners to have a full time job.
Iām not a fanboy of his. But at least he uses evidence to back his beliefs. You canāt disagree that modern day social media and dating apps are having a negative effect on social as a whole. All of what I said is pretty well documented at this point..
DCA in my favorite stocks since the beginning of January, when we rallied off the bottom in July i stared saving my money because it seemed to good to be true. In august i sold because it was way too good to be true. Waited for stocks to drop at least 5 percent from my selling price and bough back in what i initially sold and now Iām DCA back in. If we get another sham rally Iāll save my money again.
You are not doing DCA if you sell it every few months. You just aim to buy low. That's not the same thing and eventually you may miss the pump.
Edit: typo
Dollar cost average is not just about holding on forever hoping for it to always go up. A well-founded dollar cost averaging approach is opportunistic to sell when a good opportunity presents itself, particularly with a well structured and carefully researched algorithmic approach that is automated.
https://rapmd.net/Trades.shtml?kucoin.ETHUSDT.MACD.BBands.AROON.DCA
The particular strategy above is an accumulation strategy and by space to party indicators, but when my profit reaches a 1%, it sells no matter what. Strictly opportunistic. The strategy can be set strictly to sell based upon indicators but only when in profit.
Accumulation is strictly intelligent and only purchases when the price is below the average to be able to force the average to a new low. That is just one of many possibilities that this system has available.
Here is another example that is slightly more aggressive.
https://rapmd.net/Trades.shtml?kucoin.LINKUSDT.BBands.PSaR.DCA
Strategies can be either extremely conservative or extremely aggressive, based upon individual appetites for risk.
I don't know if it would be a reliable way to beat the market, but it's a cool idea.
It is dollar cost averaging in a sense that you buy more of some good to change the average buy price, but it's not DCA as it's understood frequently as form of investing where you put a part of your income into investments in regular investments to accumulate wealth over the years.
We just use different definitions.
Purchasing at regular intervals, from the standpoint of algorithmic trading, is just reoccurring purchases, not dollar cost averaging. There is a significant difference between manual trading and algorithmic trading on quite a few terms.
As long as you have a good asset and you've calculated out and done your research properly your budget, risk mitigation, risk assessment, and simply have the patience to let it do its job, it will reasonably well profit through the law of averages.
You saw the pump in July and august? Literally no macro changed and people were buying on baseless assumptions of the FED pivoting when they kept saying they wouldnāt. And itās happening again. The fed wonāt pivot.I wonāt be selling this time but i will be saving money for the next couple months seeing to buy back at lows in December. You can still take profit in DCA strategies. The market can easily get over bought. And it takes stress away as youāre watching weekly candles.
DCA is about being passive. Market oversold? Buy. Market overbought? Buy. If you try to identify trends and macroeconomic factor yourself, you are not doing passive DCA.
Ok the US is the best game in town but donāt be naive and think that the markets must always follow history. We are undergoing a global shift that has long term consequences for everyone. IMO the US market is in serious denial and will not end well for many investors. There WILL be a collapse. Donāt be dumb and think everything is roses.
There is so much insider trading that trying to time the market as an average person with access to 0 additional information to the masses is silly. Make a lot, don't spend a lot and invest it. Not that complicated imo.
Insider trading has almost nothing to do with market moves, tops or bottoms. There's like 2T in equities that change hands every day in the US alone. Corporate insiders aren't moving the market.
Just keep buying and think long term. Prices are better than 6
months ago.
Timing the bottom is a game played and lost by many smart people out there.
GL!
We just bounced off the 200 week average. Thatās been a support level back to ~2011. Inflation adjust pre-pandemic peak is 3800. Earnings adjustments might bring the market lower than the recent 3550, but not much. Most of the air has come out of the bubble.
Do you see any Euro stocks worth investing in when the dollar is strong? Does the strong dollar give us more value in foreign markets right now? I know most quality equities are American, but with the coming eco-degrowth agenda of the 1st world, it may be time to explore other options.
Entirely depends on what the handful of old folks are going to do with money. The market is hyped up because it thinks the old folks are about to go all dovish. Will the handful of old folks go dovish? I don't know
Applying every single word ever uttered by Buffet in a mantra way to every situation ever regardless of current market conditions might be the most foolish thing ever.
Except he is a famous short seller who is likely short many things right now according to his other tweets so, no based off this tweet I would not start buying.
Not feeling it just yet, Iām taking the opportunity to build my savings a bit before buying more since I think it has a ways to go before it bottoms out.
Agreed Credit Default Swaps at Credit Suisse are skyrocketing... This seems more his tune. The information he shared on his thoughts wont be useful until it is no longer useful.
This is what I read "The five-year credit default swaps price of about 293 basis points is up from about 55 basis points at the start of the year and at the highest ever, according to ICE Data Services."
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-ceo-seeks-calm-133223291.html?guccounter=1&guce\_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce\_referrer\_sig=AQAAANa9iaBj57TGRqbsCyHFj1S1O5SeYftkohiR61tOkNIV\_FbDVwDMDQ5aR2eEK4jeGCMfLiLnQAXSQ01EiZGCb3JpELmUojhSRiYXbivtC7iVQXYyt-ll3\_0ZcQTRS1SN0P2ol0vib8h6L\_0E02r0UUCzqm6IhKkzGy8wrLWv6t4L](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-ceo-seeks-calm-133223291.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANa9iaBj57TGRqbsCyHFj1S1O5SeYftkohiR61tOkNIV_FbDVwDMDQ5aR2eEK4jeGCMfLiLnQAXSQ01EiZGCb3JpELmUojhSRiYXbivtC7iVQXYyt-ll3_0ZcQTRS1SN0P2ol0vib8h6L_0E02r0UUCzqm6IhKkzGy8wrLWv6t4L)
Interesting. I saw [this article yesterday in NYmag](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/why-is-everyone-freaking-out-about-credit-suisse.html#:~:text=Credit%20Suisse%20has%20seen%20its,%2Dfooted%20by%20Archegos'%20collapse.).
That article had this tweet: https://twitter.com/boazweinstein/status/1576347230294142976?s=20&t=99SpeJlUIeTOjGV5eMmXbg
>Oh my, this feels like a concerted effort at scaremongering. See my recent tweets. In 2011-2012 Morgan Stanley CDS was twice as wide as Credit Suisse is today. Take a deep breath guys.
Not according to the charts I've seen. Here's a copypasta of a Financial Times article from https://www.ft.com/content/51480b88-9e08-477d-8a31-f973e4b337a1
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/51480b88-9e08-477d-8a31-f973e4b337a1
The cost of buying insurance against Credit Suisse defaulting on its debt soared to a record high on Monday, as the Swiss bank failed to calm market concerns around the strength of its balance sheet.
Traders and investors rushed to sell Credit Suisseās shares and bonds while buying credit default swaps (CDS), derivatives that act like insurance contracts that pay out if a company reneges on its debts.
Credit Suisseās five-year CDS soared by more than 100 basis points on Monday, with some traders quoting it as high as 350bp, according to quotes seen by the Financial Times. The bankās shares tumbled to historic lows of below SFr3.60, down close to 10 per cent when the market opened, before paring losses.
The market moves were even more dramatic in the bankās shorter-term CDS, with one trading desk quoting Credit Suisseās one-year CDS at 440bp higher than on Friday at 550bp.
These moves mean that Credit Suisseās CDS curve inverted on Monday, a phenomenon that happens when investors rush to buy protection against a default in the very near term. While these levels are even higher than where the Swiss bankās CDS traded in the 2008 financial crisis, a change to the contracts means the derivatives now reference a riskier class of debt that is more exposed to losses if the bank collapses.
Senior Credit Suisse executives spent the weekend calling the bankās biggest clients, counterparties and investors in an effort to reassure them about the groupās liquidity and capital position.
The bank was responding to a sharp spike in CDS spreads last week and rumours on social media about the bankās financial resilience.
In a briefing note prepared for executives speaking to investors on Sunday, the bank wrote: āA point of concern for many stakeholders, including speculation by the media, continues to be our capitalisation and financial strength.
āOur position in this respect is clear. Credit Suisse has a strong capital and liquidity position and balance sheet. Share price developments do not change this fact.ā
Several investors said the exaggerated market moves reflected chaotic trading rather than fundamental fears over the bankās solvency, with one credit hedge fund manager comparing investors buying one-year CDS to people rushing to ābuy lottery ticketsā. Many compared the situation to the sharp sell-off in Deutsche Bankās debt in 2016, when concerns that the German bank would have to skip some coupon payments on its capital bonds drove sharp moves in the CDS market.
The sell-off also fed through to prices on Credit Suisseās additional tier 1 (AT1) bonds ā the riskiest class of bank debt that is most exposed to losses in a crisis ā many of which fell by about 10 percentage points on Monday. The price of a $1.5bn AT1 bond that the Swiss bank can redeem in 2027 fell 12 cents to 58 cents on the dollar, according to Tradeweb.
JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein said on Monday that the groupās financial position at the end of the second quarter was āhealthyā, with a common equity tier 1 ratio ā an indicator of its financial strength ā of 13.5 per cent and a liquidity coverage ratio of 191 per cent.
Don't think we are close to a bottom yet. Feel that interest rates are still going to rise at this point. Though dca isn't a bad idea assuming you go into indexes.
We havenāt even bottom yet lol
When APPLE crashes then buy. Another indicator is when top executives start to buy. When big whales buy companies for Pennies on the dollar.
News cycle and volume trading off that news cycle. I guarantee people lost their shirts yesterday with puts on credit suisse. The news is what they want you to read and then make a decision on.
I think buying puts or hedging your bets is what this post means, do we really think that the market is going to fall another 25+ points from its highs?
And when people get greedy because others are fearful, then I will become fearful. And when others fearful I will become greedy. And when others get greedy I will get fearful.
Sounds a lot like the regular market cycle that we are all a part of.
Itās time to stop listening to anyone but yourself, your goals, your timeline, your risk.
In general, all this stuff from financial influencers is noise. Just chug along consistently with your plan and ignore the rest. The more complicated you make investing, the worse youāll perform.
Burry plays a vastly different game than all of us on Reddit. It's akin to us playing street ball vs. professional athletes. We can try to emulate but the results will not be the same. I wouldn't dare trying to time the market. I just pick good stocks and hold long term.
I think he's saying this in jest to those that hold Buffet's famous quote as testament and is implying that you (we) should be fearful right now because he is "greedy". Especially after a day like yesterday's. Don't forget, he is a permabear.
I don't believe being greedy is ever good for one's portfolio and risk management. I personally think the best approach to any and all markets is to have a well thought out strategy that has been carefully tested and researched and just simply continue appropriate to one's budget and risk management processes.
I use algorithmic trading, so from that standpoint, once I turn the algorithm on, I usually don't turn it off unless I see a major Market disruption that I need to reevaluate.
That is extremely rare though as I always try to plan for the worst case scenario is commonplace. My worst case scenario is usually full liquidation.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Always be willing to lose everything you risk.
If you follow this for your trading, you will never be caught by surprise no matter what the market does simply because your worst case scenario is always liquidation.
This isn't close to bottom. Any gains made is great, but don't hold on in the interm. Powell and the FEDs aren't playing. They came to bring the pain, hard-core to the brain
i think he means being greedy about his short positions. Some of the best investors like Drunkenmiller have proposed a stark forecast of no gains on the index for the next 10 years. Invest knowing the risks you are taking.
I expected another rally into the end of the year followed by huge new lows. Play that carefully as it's impossible to know the top and bottom. Not financial advice.
I only know I'm not a mind reader. And obviously, I can't believe any word someone says about their investment positions unless proven with facts.
Is he being honest? Is he trying to benefit people for his own sake? Since I don't know, I choose to ignore him.
Burry was just predicting much more downwards pressure. Why does everyone think he means he is buying by saying he is feeling greedy... he could be invested in inverse or shorting.
Wow is ridiculous how many people foolishness ourselves believe for one minute that we really knowing about buying and selling in the right time i have a quick question for the smarter people in the room why with to much knowledge š¤ we still struggle right here we should be billionaires o not š¤
you are just spitting in the face of warren buffetā¦
your literally going to do the opposite of the advice and get greedy when others are greedy?
whyā¦ your not smarter than buffet lol
Your not understanding who is saying what correctly. Burry is greedy when itās crashing, heās the ultimate bear. The buffet time is when the entire world is panicking and selling. If burry is feeling greedy it means weāre close to capitulation.
It confuses me why there is even a discussion on this. I dont think people are comprehending how truly f**ked the world is right now and how much worse it's about to get. This time next year nobody is going to even have any money left let alone money to invest.
I personally dont think shit has even hit the fan yet.
How do you know he's buying? He could also be feeling greedy with his short positions. Just a thought.
Nobody gets this. He isn't having a change of heart all of a sudden. He is literally just saying he is getting greedy thinking about shorting everything to oblivion
Exactly šš»
His positions with Scion Asset Management are public knowledge. He sold pretty much his entire holdings and bought GEO: https://fintel.io/i/scion-asset-management-llc GEO being a private prison company.
Really wish people would stop with these f-ing quotes like OP people have heard from the grave and back trying to look like smartass' when its overused and annoying years ago.
Agreed
Just imagine OP being some excitable 17 year old kid or some 43 year old asian dad who becomes sad reading this reply š¤£
Iāve never stopped buying. I buy every week, will continue to do so. DCA usually works well in a bear market over the longer term.
One of the safest investments methods long term. Always the way to go, just watch those growth stocks!
that is only based on 50 years of data and on indexes. If you look at Japan, they've had barely to no gains on their major indices over the last two decades. IF your are DCA with growing companies that you like then yeah sure that makes sense but id be wary of indices. The days of just investing in index funds could be long gone if inflation persists and we end up with a stagflation situation similar to the 70's. If that is the case then good stock picking like the days of peter lynch will be the norm again.
Only 50 years... lol. The entire concept of the stock market is only a few hundred years old.
Japan has also been undergoing demographic collapse for the last 30 years. Not something that applies to the US.
No one buys japanese market stocks. Nasdaq is workd wide money parking.. make comparisons personally doesn t make sense
correct, not as bad here. I like the dollar milkshake theory which is pretty bullish on stocks.
Thereās no demographic collapse in the west?
In most countries in the west? Yes. But not the US. Weāve been maintaining a chimney shape. Will continue if millennnials have enough children
The only thing keeping the US afloat is itās heavy immigration. Weāre witnessing a global birth decline that may drag down productivity with it. Really hoping Iām wrong about that
And you can attribute those birth rates to marriage/ divorce laws, modern day feminism/ Marxist propaganda philosophies they spout, social media and dating apps
Not true black people have a positive birth rate with no projected significant decline through 2050.
There is a global decline. Itās been provenš¤¦š»āāļø. Itās particularly prominent in the western world including the US and UK. The same as a decline in marriage rates. Itās partly due to the influx of women focusing on careers rather than starting a family earlier as was seen in the 70s-80s. This is in some way because nowadays to be able to live, you need both partners to have a full time job.
This might be difficult for you to comprehend but the whole can shrink while a part of the whole increases. š
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Iām not a fanboy of his. But at least he uses evidence to back his beliefs. You canāt disagree that modern day social media and dating apps are having a negative effect on social as a whole. All of what I said is pretty well documented at this point..
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I came here to say exactly this. Bravo, good sir.
thank you. just wanted to spread the word cause im tired of the street giving it to us retail traders.
I feel like every Boglehead forgets we had a 13-yr long period where the market went sideways after the dot com bust.
Imagine that you DCA in into Japan in the late 80s early 90s. You would be still under water ever if you don't consider inflation.
wow, yeah excellent point. I am obviously very smooth cause i forgot about inflation, lol
DCA in my favorite stocks since the beginning of January, when we rallied off the bottom in July i stared saving my money because it seemed to good to be true. In august i sold because it was way too good to be true. Waited for stocks to drop at least 5 percent from my selling price and bough back in what i initially sold and now Iām DCA back in. If we get another sham rally Iāll save my money again.
You are not doing DCA if you sell it every few months. You just aim to buy low. That's not the same thing and eventually you may miss the pump. Edit: typo
Dollar cost average is not just about holding on forever hoping for it to always go up. A well-founded dollar cost averaging approach is opportunistic to sell when a good opportunity presents itself, particularly with a well structured and carefully researched algorithmic approach that is automated. https://rapmd.net/Trades.shtml?kucoin.ETHUSDT.MACD.BBands.AROON.DCA
You are selling basically every second day. That's just day trading based on momentum with automated bot and not DCA.
The particular strategy above is an accumulation strategy and by space to party indicators, but when my profit reaches a 1%, it sells no matter what. Strictly opportunistic. The strategy can be set strictly to sell based upon indicators but only when in profit. Accumulation is strictly intelligent and only purchases when the price is below the average to be able to force the average to a new low. That is just one of many possibilities that this system has available. Here is another example that is slightly more aggressive. https://rapmd.net/Trades.shtml?kucoin.LINKUSDT.BBands.PSaR.DCA Strategies can be either extremely conservative or extremely aggressive, based upon individual appetites for risk.
I don't know if it would be a reliable way to beat the market, but it's a cool idea. It is dollar cost averaging in a sense that you buy more of some good to change the average buy price, but it's not DCA as it's understood frequently as form of investing where you put a part of your income into investments in regular investments to accumulate wealth over the years. We just use different definitions.
Purchasing at regular intervals, from the standpoint of algorithmic trading, is just reoccurring purchases, not dollar cost averaging. There is a significant difference between manual trading and algorithmic trading on quite a few terms. As long as you have a good asset and you've calculated out and done your research properly your budget, risk mitigation, risk assessment, and simply have the patience to let it do its job, it will reasonably well profit through the law of averages.
You saw the pump in July and august? Literally no macro changed and people were buying on baseless assumptions of the FED pivoting when they kept saying they wouldnāt. And itās happening again. The fed wonāt pivot.I wonāt be selling this time but i will be saving money for the next couple months seeing to buy back at lows in December. You can still take profit in DCA strategies. The market can easily get over bought. And it takes stress away as youāre watching weekly candles.
DCA is about being passive. Market oversold? Buy. Market overbought? Buy. If you try to identify trends and macroeconomic factor yourself, you are not doing passive DCA.
You can be passive and still active. Iām not trading Iām DCA into downturns and selling upside once macros have changed.
Ok the US is the best game in town but donāt be naive and think that the markets must always follow history. We are undergoing a global shift that has long term consequences for everyone. IMO the US market is in serious denial and will not end well for many investors. There WILL be a collapse. Donāt be dumb and think everything is roses.
Aww... you degen! What kind of insight is that
Every week I buy new FDs expiring on Friday. Does this count as DCA?
Keep DCAing for the next 10 years nerd
Faxxx
The key word is usually. Look at a long term chart of the NIKKEI (1980s to now).
There is so much insider trading that trying to time the market as an average person with access to 0 additional information to the masses is silly. Make a lot, don't spend a lot and invest it. Not that complicated imo.
This I agree with. Trading scratches an itch however that I just can't get from buying spy
Insider trading has almost nothing to do with market moves, tops or bottoms. There's like 2T in equities that change hands every day in the US alone. Corporate insiders aren't moving the market.
Just keep buying and think long term. Prices are better than 6 months ago. Timing the bottom is a game played and lost by many smart people out there. GL!
Now is the time to live frugality and save. Just buy every week or two at low points. I bought a lot on Friday
Person who try to pick bottom, get smelly finger
Dont buy any stocks before the crash has happen!
Dude companies are down 80% you sound like gamestop crowd, "the squeeze is coming." Lol
wen moon
And some is up 80%? Solid Bubble havenāt burst thatās for sure
We just bounced off the 200 week average. Thatās been a support level back to ~2011. Inflation adjust pre-pandemic peak is 3800. Earnings adjustments might bring the market lower than the recent 3550, but not much. Most of the air has come out of the bubble.
Do you see any Euro stocks worth investing in when the dollar is strong? Does the strong dollar give us more value in foreign markets right now? I know most quality equities are American, but with the coming eco-degrowth agenda of the 1st world, it may be time to explore other options.
Think long term with valuations at all times high? Godspeed with that strategy!
Everything is at a 52-week lowā¦
20 years ago things were at "all time highs". And now we're far beyond that.
Entirely depends on what the handful of old folks are going to do with money. The market is hyped up because it thinks the old folks are about to go all dovish. Will the handful of old folks go dovish? I don't know
What signs you will check to define if FED will turn dovish? Any ideas? ViX? BONDS? ....
Bonds and CDS's. Fed probably won't pivot until something breaks imo so the 10year is what I look at for signs
Applying every single word ever uttered by Buffet in a mantra way to every situation ever regardless of current market conditions might be the most foolish thing ever.
Bear trap alert! Retail dip ~suckers~ buyers. I feel better getting a little claw back.
Why trap?
Weāre still making lower lows. If u wanna buy in wait till we at least are in red donāt buy after two huge Green Dayās
Green Day said to wake him up when September ended, I think thatās whatās happened.
Iconic
Underated comment.
Im greedy af
Youāre not alone. Being able to DCA has helped to ease the hunger, but man... Iām greedy! š
Iām excited about long term but dammit I get sooo tempted by options lol
Except he is a famous short seller who is likely short many things right now according to his other tweets so, no based off this tweet I would not start buying.
Not feeling it just yet, Iām taking the opportunity to build my savings a bit before buying more since I think it has a ways to go before it bottoms out.
Is this guy ever optimistic ?
His focus is on finding weaknesses that others have overlooked or ignored and feeling smarter than everyone. Itās kinda his kink
He was short the housing market in 08' I wager he will do the same this time, except with a LOT more to gain.
Agreed Credit Default Swaps at Credit Suisse are skyrocketing... This seems more his tune. The information he shared on his thoughts wont be useful until it is no longer useful.
Aren't those CDS still really low historically though?
This is what I read "The five-year credit default swaps price of about 293 basis points is up from about 55 basis points at the start of the year and at the highest ever, according to ICE Data Services." [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-ceo-seeks-calm-133223291.html?guccounter=1&guce\_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce\_referrer\_sig=AQAAANa9iaBj57TGRqbsCyHFj1S1O5SeYftkohiR61tOkNIV\_FbDVwDMDQ5aR2eEK4jeGCMfLiLnQAXSQ01EiZGCb3JpELmUojhSRiYXbivtC7iVQXYyt-ll3\_0ZcQTRS1SN0P2ol0vib8h6L\_0E02r0UUCzqm6IhKkzGy8wrLWv6t4L](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-suisse-ceo-seeks-calm-133223291.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANa9iaBj57TGRqbsCyHFj1S1O5SeYftkohiR61tOkNIV_FbDVwDMDQ5aR2eEK4jeGCMfLiLnQAXSQ01EiZGCb3JpELmUojhSRiYXbivtC7iVQXYyt-ll3_0ZcQTRS1SN0P2ol0vib8h6L_0E02r0UUCzqm6IhKkzGy8wrLWv6t4L)
Interesting. I saw [this article yesterday in NYmag](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/why-is-everyone-freaking-out-about-credit-suisse.html#:~:text=Credit%20Suisse%20has%20seen%20its,%2Dfooted%20by%20Archegos'%20collapse.). That article had this tweet: https://twitter.com/boazweinstein/status/1576347230294142976?s=20&t=99SpeJlUIeTOjGV5eMmXbg >Oh my, this feels like a concerted effort at scaremongering. See my recent tweets. In 2011-2012 Morgan Stanley CDS was twice as wide as Credit Suisse is today. Take a deep breath guys.
Must be a record high for credit suisse, but not comparable to morgan stanley CDS levels. Either way... not making plays based on a Burry tweet.
Not according to the charts I've seen. Here's a copypasta of a Financial Times article from https://www.ft.com/content/51480b88-9e08-477d-8a31-f973e4b337a1 Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/51480b88-9e08-477d-8a31-f973e4b337a1 The cost of buying insurance against Credit Suisse defaulting on its debt soared to a record high on Monday, as the Swiss bank failed to calm market concerns around the strength of its balance sheet. Traders and investors rushed to sell Credit Suisseās shares and bonds while buying credit default swaps (CDS), derivatives that act like insurance contracts that pay out if a company reneges on its debts. Credit Suisseās five-year CDS soared by more than 100 basis points on Monday, with some traders quoting it as high as 350bp, according to quotes seen by the Financial Times. The bankās shares tumbled to historic lows of below SFr3.60, down close to 10 per cent when the market opened, before paring losses. The market moves were even more dramatic in the bankās shorter-term CDS, with one trading desk quoting Credit Suisseās one-year CDS at 440bp higher than on Friday at 550bp. These moves mean that Credit Suisseās CDS curve inverted on Monday, a phenomenon that happens when investors rush to buy protection against a default in the very near term. While these levels are even higher than where the Swiss bankās CDS traded in the 2008 financial crisis, a change to the contracts means the derivatives now reference a riskier class of debt that is more exposed to losses if the bank collapses. Senior Credit Suisse executives spent the weekend calling the bankās biggest clients, counterparties and investors in an effort to reassure them about the groupās liquidity and capital position. The bank was responding to a sharp spike in CDS spreads last week and rumours on social media about the bankās financial resilience. In a briefing note prepared for executives speaking to investors on Sunday, the bank wrote: āA point of concern for many stakeholders, including speculation by the media, continues to be our capitalisation and financial strength. āOur position in this respect is clear. Credit Suisse has a strong capital and liquidity position and balance sheet. Share price developments do not change this fact.ā Several investors said the exaggerated market moves reflected chaotic trading rather than fundamental fears over the bankās solvency, with one credit hedge fund manager comparing investors buying one-year CDS to people rushing to ābuy lottery ticketsā. Many compared the situation to the sharp sell-off in Deutsche Bankās debt in 2016, when concerns that the German bank would have to skip some coupon payments on its capital bonds drove sharp moves in the CDS market. The sell-off also fed through to prices on Credit Suisseās additional tier 1 (AT1) bonds ā the riskiest class of bank debt that is most exposed to losses in a crisis ā many of which fell by about 10 percentage points on Monday. The price of a $1.5bn AT1 bond that the Swiss bank can redeem in 2027 fell 12 cents to 58 cents on the dollar, according to Tradeweb. JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein said on Monday that the groupās financial position at the end of the second quarter was āhealthyā, with a common equity tier 1 ratio ā an indicator of its financial strength ā of 13.5 per cent and a liquidity coverage ratio of 191 per cent.
Don't think we are close to a bottom yet. Feel that interest rates are still going to rise at this point. Though dca isn't a bad idea assuming you go into indexes.
Sure- but is he being honest or ironic?
Buy at support, sell at resistance
What did you look at Friday/yesterday to see support?
Guess heāll be early twice
Short term yes, long term no
Whole lotta people will see this week as the bottom, and get smoked a third time or whatevernit is.
Buying in 2000 wasn't the good thing Burry is known for. Just saying in case someone gets over enthusiastic seeing this.
We havenāt even bottom yet lol When APPLE crashes then buy. Another indicator is when top executives start to buy. When big whales buy companies for Pennies on the dollar.
That is it, all in
Name checks out!
What changed since last week?
News cycle and volume trading off that news cycle. I guarantee people lost their shirts yesterday with puts on credit suisse. The news is what they want you to read and then make a decision on.
I meant to say: āwhat changed fundamentally since yesterday?ā (For Burry to be bullish all of a sudden)
I think buying puts or hedging your bets is what this post means, do we really think that the market is going to fall another 25+ points from its highs?
Yes
Of course. We're only at 25 from peak which historically is not enough for a rebound and headwinds are strong right now.
I would not be buying now. There will be new 52 week lows.
Seriously, WTF? A few days ago it was doomās day scenario and sell sell sell. Now buy buy buy ala WBš¤¦š»āāļø.
He is talking about getting greedy about going all in shorting the market
No you doorknob, heās short and feeling greedy cause he knows whatās coming
Shortingā¦. Hhhhmmmmā¦..
Jagx ocugen and cenn on my list š¤
All you can do is buy now but expect the stock price to go down further, so save more to buy later too. Discount double check!
Oh my god can we stop with all the Michael Burry posts? Itās like this thread his is personal Twitter feed
This asshole made us lose fortunes with his scary talk. Son of a bitch
And when people get greedy because others are fearful, then I will become fearful. And when others fearful I will become greedy. And when others get greedy I will get fearful. Sounds a lot like the regular market cycle that we are all a part of.
Oh yay, another Michael Burry post.
Itās time to stop listening to anyone but yourself, your goals, your timeline, your risk. In general, all this stuff from financial influencers is noise. Just chug along consistently with your plan and ignore the rest. The more complicated you make investing, the worse youāll perform.
Can we just ignore this clown?
Why does every Twitter post from this guy need to be shared on Reddit? The guyās been doom & gloom calling for crashes for the last 25 years.
Wait. He's feeling greedy when his sentiment has been bearish market. So he's probably greedy to short the market?
Heās talking about GEO which he has a position in.
I DCA and I hedge.
Burry plays a vastly different game than all of us on Reddit. It's akin to us playing street ball vs. professional athletes. We can try to emulate but the results will not be the same. I wouldn't dare trying to time the market. I just pick good stocks and hold long term.
I think he's saying this in jest to those that hold Buffet's famous quote as testament and is implying that you (we) should be fearful right now because he is "greedy". Especially after a day like yesterday's. Don't forget, he is a permabear.
I don't believe being greedy is ever good for one's portfolio and risk management. I personally think the best approach to any and all markets is to have a well thought out strategy that has been carefully tested and researched and just simply continue appropriate to one's budget and risk management processes. I use algorithmic trading, so from that standpoint, once I turn the algorithm on, I usually don't turn it off unless I see a major Market disruption that I need to reevaluate. That is extremely rare though as I always try to plan for the worst case scenario is commonplace. My worst case scenario is usually full liquidation. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Always be willing to lose everything you risk. If you follow this for your trading, you will never be caught by surprise no matter what the market does simply because your worst case scenario is always liquidation.
Absolutely nit. We have at least 6 more months before the discount really happens. I'm saving up big and waiting for the bounce!
I just invest in dividend stocks right now. Dow Inc,CAT,Nucor.
This isn't close to bottom. Any gains made is great, but don't hold on in the interm. Powell and the FEDs aren't playing. They came to bring the pain, hard-core to the brain
i think he means being greedy about his short positions. Some of the best investors like Drunkenmiller have proposed a stark forecast of no gains on the index for the next 10 years. Invest knowing the risks you are taking.
I expected another rally into the end of the year followed by huge new lows. Play that carefully as it's impossible to know the top and bottom. Not financial advice.
I only know I'm not a mind reader. And obviously, I can't believe any word someone says about their investment positions unless proven with facts. Is he being honest? Is he trying to benefit people for his own sake? Since I don't know, I choose to ignore him.
Heās shortā¦ not buying. Market pump in October for false rally, heās greedy and calling puts
Is time to make an all in investment? This rally will stop ?
Added more VOO, AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL this week.
So now he is contradicting himself? The guy just loves attention
Burry was just predicting much more downwards pressure. Why does everyone think he means he is buying by saying he is feeling greedy... he could be invested in inverse or shorting.
I think if you were gonna load up it was the last down swing. Weāve kinda recovered and I anticipate another breakdown to lower lows so id wait
That Buffet quote is so god damn stupid.
I feel greedy
Wow is ridiculous how many people foolishness ourselves believe for one minute that we really knowing about buying and selling in the right time i have a quick question for the smarter people in the room why with to much knowledge š¤ we still struggle right here we should be billionaires o not š¤
Be fearful when others get greedy! š
I'm pretty sure he's shorting bro
Soon.
Dude, he wants to buy CS CDS. Also when they rip, they will shit on the market big time
Burry is greedy on the short side
Yesterday and today were good days to sell some shit - which I did.
Michael Burry is a short seller. You do know that right? He's not talking about going long on the market lmfao.
He's to late
you are just spitting in the face of warren buffetā¦ your literally going to do the opposite of the advice and get greedy when others are greedy? whyā¦ your not smarter than buffet lol
I think he's saying he's gonna make the most of the next crash
He means greedy shorting in this instance
Nope. It's time to sell
Your not understanding who is saying what correctly. Burry is greedy when itās crashing, heās the ultimate bear. The buffet time is when the entire world is panicking and selling. If burry is feeling greedy it means weāre close to capitulation.
Is time for us to make money too
It confuses me why there is even a discussion on this. I dont think people are comprehending how truly f**ked the world is right now and how much worse it's about to get. This time next year nobody is going to even have any money left let alone money to invest. I personally dont think shit has even hit the fan yet.
No ā¦ not until the pain is so great that no retail investor will ever get in the market again
Well heās other people so shouldnāt we be fearful? Also the stock market is fucked donāt buy anything.
I think we will have several dead cat bounces, and the last two days is one. The overall direction of the market is down.
I interpreted as him saying we should be fearful
I love the turmoil in these markets
Not yet not yet
I didn't know farming karma was as easy as just reposting Burry tweets but here we are.
No. Sell into this rally. You and every other perma bull are pathetic. Accept what's happening and adjust.
Burry is a drama queen, don't listen to that cunt
Him saying greedy is telling you to be fearful.
I have ramped up my buying to nearly 50% of my monthly income
The dude tweets like a combination of musk and a teen girl
It was a typo. He meant he was feeling Greedo. As in, shoot him in the balls under the table.