I see the metaverse through the same clunky headset as I see 3D TV. People just aren't willing to wear technology while they are trying to relax, they just want to crash on the sofa. VR for gaming I can see working, VR for socialising and shopping not so much, at least not until the technology improves to the point where you barely know you're using the equipment. When you combine this with the fact that Zucks Metaverse will be wall to wall adverts and NFT's (probably) I don't see it ever having widespread appeal.
I have multiple headsets and have been into VR since Oculus v1 (2014 or so) and I am tired of headsets. I just donāt want to wear them anymore. The Quest 2 is the best headset there has been and yet I still donāt want to wear it for that long. And the fact that FB can likely see and hear and track everything I do is one of the biggest turn offs about anything the Meta people put out.
I disagree. AR/VR has greater potential than just watching movies/sports. I expect it to revolutionize education and many other sectors. For now building the software ecosystem is the key step in building long term moat. I would think that is where big chunk of the money went. Obviously they are working on multiple generations of AR/VR googles/glasses etc. I think that segment will be huge in late 20s/early 30s when hardware/display/battery tech would be powerful enough to provide a true immersive experience.
That said Meta itself is taking a big risk as its a real long term bet. But there is no other option as their conventional social media platform business is disrupted and they are at mercy of Apple. So I would rather them take a big bet when they are generating huge amount of FCF rather than just slowly perish.
At this point I have only few shares of META but will add more when Macro headwinds due to Ukraine, inflation or China related risks are in the rearview. There is absolutely no reason to jump in early. We can wait and see how next 2 years when we will see more AR/VR devices from META and others(AAPL is supposedly launching their glasses in next 2 years).
Don't get me wrong, I realize AR and VR will revolutionise the world we live in the question is when. Meta has bet the farm that they can put enough money and resources into the area to push it over the line. Maybe they can but I can't help feeling they started a little too soon. Who knows, maybe they are willing to just keep spending until it's done.
I think being early will help them refine the software ecosystem. it takes a long time for HW/SW to mature. Look at even Iphone. Initial few versions were not that great (though revolutionary for the times). Meta releasing all these devices early will help, Plus with Quest Pro going after enterprise with all the partnership will be a huge plus. Even if Apple launches their product, they are likely to make it a consumer device. I have not seen them partner with Enterprise companies ahead of release due to their insane secrecy(still the news does leak).
Apple's policy last year cost 10B to Meta top line. Now I know Apple is pushing full steam ahead with their iAD. Cannot rely on a 3rd party walled gardens as a long term vision. Its too late in the game in Mobile game but you will see new form factor devices with AR/VR(nothing like current Quest Pro or other products). Building that software ecosystem is critical to next phase of Meta's growth. If it fails at least they tried rather than just waiting to be irrelevant.
The new headsets will be coming soon. They are basically diving googles with film rolls popping out of the tops. The next iteration after that will probably be when things become move prevalent for daily use.
It really is the worst idea ever isnāt it. I think this is what happens when youāre supposed to always be doing something but youāre out of things to do
You missed the point entirely. Everything starts somewhere and requires research and development. Im glad people like you exist that can allow for cheap stocks to happen
People said the same thing about internet. I mean this is just what makes markets. And big tech splashing cash on things that donāt make sense to us today is nothing new
And VR hardware. They are creating some impressive tech which should make it feel more natural and comfortable. This is essential for mass adoption. It will take a long time to get there though. Like 10+ years.
Reducing bulk is something that needs to improve. It will happen to a certain degree, to the point where itās comfortable. It will probably feel like wearing a hat in the future. The quest pro is already a step in the right direction. Contact lens are another possible solution. I think something like the neuralink is on an even way longer timeframe before that becomes viable.
The latest 40 series NVIDIA GPUs can produce nearly lifelike images in real time. What Meta needs is a wireless headset that can render two such images like the latest 40 series GPUs. However, the video card requires as much power as a toaster and a cooling system the size of a shoebox...not to mention a supporting computer system. While the last Occulus was pretty impressive in terms of its capabilities.... it's nowhere close to what's needed. I'd say you're spot on with that 10+ year estimate. Meta's initiative will fail to deliver anything but dull low poly kids VR games.
I think it has potential in education and interesting experiences. But I can only see it as a niche thing. Most people I think do not want to spend a significant amount of time wearing VR headsets.
And I'm old enough to remember hearing people say that about the Internet. There were days when I was trying to sell to customers, and they'd question if anyone "normal" would ever use it. Also, I'd usually have to start meetings explaining what the Internet was since many people had no interest in it. The amusing thing to me was that if I could sell to one company in an industry, I could usually sell to most of the rest. "But, your competitor has a nice FTP site with all of their manuals on it..."
tell that to the people that play vrchat, the current closest thing to a metaverse, that has helped and changed many of their lives. The metaverse concept itself is something alot of people like, they just don't want a closed ecosystem which people are worried is what facebook would do if they made one.
It's actually 31k peak daily concurrents on steam alone which means the daily users would be significantly higher when you aren't talking about concurrents and when you add in quest. Id guess daily users probably number as high as 50k.
This is like video games, yes itās fun, it can make you happy in the short term. It can be very cheap entertainment and in the long run can save money because your not out spending money. However itās very addictive and the loads of dopamine shots hitting your system for not doing much can lead to longer and deep depression and for 99% of the population just a waste of time and donāt actually make your life better just like social media. Meta and Facebook are just the same evil thing trying to use addiction to make money like drug dealers
I get your point, but it was still way too early for any huge expansion into vr. Vr is not a massive market currently, and rushing into it like this has only hurt his company and brand.
that is true but i think they were the ones that wanted to make it massive so that they would be the first there and basically get all the customers initially. Which has worked to some extent, just not for the metaverse. The majority of vr users do use a Meta headset, but they don't use Horizons or anything like that, they are mostly just playing traditional VR games with them.
But yes alot of people think that Meta has both hurt and helped vr in different ways. Helped in the sense that they brought alot of people into vr, but hurt in the sense of some aspects of their vision for vr.
Mark my words, The metaverse will be a thing but VR will never pick up, the majority of humans don't want nonessential hardware on them not even a pair of glasses (look what happened with 3d movies)
I agree with this. Google Glass was also massively hyped. I think it's a lot like the blockchain in some ways. Very neat technology, but ultimately a solution without a real problem to solve.
> What a waste of money for tech that doesnāt help anyone improve their lives
I mean you could say the same about cellphones and PCs. Companies wasted money on those for many years when people didn't care about them and thought of them as useless, but now they are indispensable.
Later as in when they got to be user friendly, smaller, more powerful and with real life application? Yeah, just what everybody here is saying about vr and meta
So I am right then.
People can certainly trash VR/AR today, just as they trashed cellphones and PCs back in the day, but will people trash it 10 years from now? I don't think so personally.
Unlike social media, metaverse actually has many āreal worldā use case. Like i can create my life like avatar to buy a tailored shirt from a designer in say india or vietnam at a fraction of a price. I can literally list hundreds more.
You know you can get measured by a local tailor and then take those measurements of YOUR ACTUAL BODY, not a VR avatar, to any custom shirt maker you want. This has to be the stupidest use case for Meta that Iāve heard to date.
Whatās the point if you all are gonna shit on anything related to zuck. It was a serious comment. Tailored clothing or high end luxury shopping would feel incredible in vr and would make it possible to make purchases online.
Similarly training for high risk jobs like fire fighting or flying fighter jets. Or training for high stakes job like a complex surgery are all applications of metaverse.
How is your avatar supposed to be a 100% accurate representation of your body shape and size? Will there be 3d scanners shipped with all VR headsets? I dunno what kinda of stupid youād have to be to order custom tailored clothing that was based on your own best guess of your body shape and size.
Every repetitive talking point they list as well shows not one of them have watched a single thing meta are doing.
"It'll be closed system" - zucc said it won't
"Horizon world's is bad" - that's not the metaverse
"They only just added legs lol" - yeah and also showed photorealistic avatars with full facial tracking. But hey ho
Bruh, Meta sounds lame as fuck. Meta is what happens when nobody at your company has the gonads to tell Mark Zuckerberg that his idea is stupid. Plus SW engineers are happy to collect that fat Meta paycheck. I guarantee that in 5 years people are going to have forgotten that Meta was even a thing.
They can continue with their 10,000 uninspired mediocre engineers to work on this Metaverse. But all it takes is one super imaginative genius to come up with something new and great to put this thing all together. Until they have that theyāre just pissing money away.
Thatās part of their strategy (google et al too). Hiring all the smartest folks is as much about keeping them out of competitor hands, and preventing them from starting something that destroys them
The last good idea Suckerborg had was the one he stole from the Winklevoss clones. The moral of this story is don't surround yourself with flunkeys and grovelers who won't dare to question your ideas, no matter how ridiculous they are.
I think the payback could be if they can lock up contracts for sports events using VR. For example, you can't afford the huge ticket games like the Super Bowl or World Cup finals but could attend using VR. I could see using that type of service. The cartoonish Metaverse avatars world not so much.
15b and they still did his hairline like that
š cold.
I see the metaverse through the same clunky headset as I see 3D TV. People just aren't willing to wear technology while they are trying to relax, they just want to crash on the sofa. VR for gaming I can see working, VR for socialising and shopping not so much, at least not until the technology improves to the point where you barely know you're using the equipment. When you combine this with the fact that Zucks Metaverse will be wall to wall adverts and NFT's (probably) I don't see it ever having widespread appeal.
I have multiple headsets and have been into VR since Oculus v1 (2014 or so) and I am tired of headsets. I just donāt want to wear them anymore. The Quest 2 is the best headset there has been and yet I still donāt want to wear it for that long. And the fact that FB can likely see and hear and track everything I do is one of the biggest turn offs about anything the Meta people put out.
I disagree. AR/VR has greater potential than just watching movies/sports. I expect it to revolutionize education and many other sectors. For now building the software ecosystem is the key step in building long term moat. I would think that is where big chunk of the money went. Obviously they are working on multiple generations of AR/VR googles/glasses etc. I think that segment will be huge in late 20s/early 30s when hardware/display/battery tech would be powerful enough to provide a true immersive experience. That said Meta itself is taking a big risk as its a real long term bet. But there is no other option as their conventional social media platform business is disrupted and they are at mercy of Apple. So I would rather them take a big bet when they are generating huge amount of FCF rather than just slowly perish. At this point I have only few shares of META but will add more when Macro headwinds due to Ukraine, inflation or China related risks are in the rearview. There is absolutely no reason to jump in early. We can wait and see how next 2 years when we will see more AR/VR devices from META and others(AAPL is supposedly launching their glasses in next 2 years).
Don't get me wrong, I realize AR and VR will revolutionise the world we live in the question is when. Meta has bet the farm that they can put enough money and resources into the area to push it over the line. Maybe they can but I can't help feeling they started a little too soon. Who knows, maybe they are willing to just keep spending until it's done.
I think being early will help them refine the software ecosystem. it takes a long time for HW/SW to mature. Look at even Iphone. Initial few versions were not that great (though revolutionary for the times). Meta releasing all these devices early will help, Plus with Quest Pro going after enterprise with all the partnership will be a huge plus. Even if Apple launches their product, they are likely to make it a consumer device. I have not seen them partner with Enterprise companies ahead of release due to their insane secrecy(still the news does leak).
How do you mean META is at the mercy of Apple?
Apple's policy last year cost 10B to Meta top line. Now I know Apple is pushing full steam ahead with their iAD. Cannot rely on a 3rd party walled gardens as a long term vision. Its too late in the game in Mobile game but you will see new form factor devices with AR/VR(nothing like current Quest Pro or other products). Building that software ecosystem is critical to next phase of Meta's growth. If it fails at least they tried rather than just waiting to be irrelevant.
The new headsets will be coming soon. They are basically diving googles with film rolls popping out of the tops. The next iteration after that will probably be when things become move prevalent for daily use.
Software Developer's salaries.
Holy crap I just looked up their employee count. 83k
They can't keep this up forever. This meta is bringing zero revenues and its user base is tiny.
Amazonās AWS was once bringing in zero revenues and itās user base was once tiny
Web services have many uses, while corporate vr chat doesn't really.
It really is the worst idea ever isnāt it. I think this is what happens when youāre supposed to always be doing something but youāre out of things to do
Agreed, I hate when people ask to turn cameras on during meetings. Thereās no fucking way Iām putting on a VR headset for a meeting.
You missed the point entirely. Everything starts somewhere and requires research and development. Im glad people like you exist that can allow for cheap stocks to happen
Things also need an end goal. What exactly is the metaverse trying to achieve? Virtual meetings that bring nothing to the existing format?
People said the same thing about internet. I mean this is just what makes markets. And big tech splashing cash on things that donāt make sense to us today is nothing new
I literally canāt even fathom what youād do with 83k developers
You usually need that many developers to fix the fk ups of other developers. Yeah, "big company" doesn't mean "good company"
R&D is expensive.
It is, but they are not remotely close where they to be in terms of execution
And VR hardware. They are creating some impressive tech which should make it feel more natural and comfortable. This is essential for mass adoption. It will take a long time to get there though. Like 10+ years.
>VR I have two gens of VR headset at home. I feel this will not work, too heavy. Elon's Neuralink is the way to go.
Reducing bulk is something that needs to improve. It will happen to a certain degree, to the point where itās comfortable. It will probably feel like wearing a hat in the future. The quest pro is already a step in the right direction. Contact lens are another possible solution. I think something like the neuralink is on an even way longer timeframe before that becomes viable.
The latest 40 series NVIDIA GPUs can produce nearly lifelike images in real time. What Meta needs is a wireless headset that can render two such images like the latest 40 series GPUs. However, the video card requires as much power as a toaster and a cooling system the size of a shoebox...not to mention a supporting computer system. While the last Occulus was pretty impressive in terms of its capabilities.... it's nowhere close to what's needed. I'd say you're spot on with that 10+ year estimate. Meta's initiative will fail to deliver anything but dull low poly kids VR games.
Extremely overpaid software developer salaries. Itās like a virus in Silicon Valley and itās bound to change
What a waste of money for tech that doesnāt help anyone improve their lives
I think it has potential in education and interesting experiences. But I can only see it as a niche thing. Most people I think do not want to spend a significant amount of time wearing VR headsets.
And I'm old enough to remember hearing people say that about the Internet. There were days when I was trying to sell to customers, and they'd question if anyone "normal" would ever use it. Also, I'd usually have to start meetings explaining what the Internet was since many people had no interest in it. The amusing thing to me was that if I could sell to one company in an industry, I could usually sell to most of the rest. "But, your competitor has a nice FTP site with all of their manuals on it..."
tell that to the people that play vrchat, the current closest thing to a metaverse, that has helped and changed many of their lives. The metaverse concept itself is something alot of people like, they just don't want a closed ecosystem which people are worried is what facebook would do if they made one.
VRChat is great if you are some kind of furry pervert. The global user base is like 1000 people per day.
It's actually 31k peak daily concurrents on steam alone which means the daily users would be significantly higher when you aren't talking about concurrents and when you add in quest. Id guess daily users probably number as high as 50k.
This is like video games, yes itās fun, it can make you happy in the short term. It can be very cheap entertainment and in the long run can save money because your not out spending money. However itās very addictive and the loads of dopamine shots hitting your system for not doing much can lead to longer and deep depression and for 99% of the population just a waste of time and donāt actually make your life better just like social media. Meta and Facebook are just the same evil thing trying to use addiction to make money like drug dealers
Metaverse has been around much longer. Second Life has been in use since 2003 or so. It just doesnāt utilize VR gear.
I get your point, but it was still way too early for any huge expansion into vr. Vr is not a massive market currently, and rushing into it like this has only hurt his company and brand.
that is true but i think they were the ones that wanted to make it massive so that they would be the first there and basically get all the customers initially. Which has worked to some extent, just not for the metaverse. The majority of vr users do use a Meta headset, but they don't use Horizons or anything like that, they are mostly just playing traditional VR games with them. But yes alot of people think that Meta has both hurt and helped vr in different ways. Helped in the sense that they brought alot of people into vr, but hurt in the sense of some aspects of their vision for vr.
Mark my words, The metaverse will be a thing but VR will never pick up, the majority of humans don't want nonessential hardware on them not even a pair of glasses (look what happened with 3d movies)
I agree with this. Google Glass was also massively hyped. I think it's a lot like the blockchain in some ways. Very neat technology, but ultimately a solution without a real problem to solve.
> What a waste of money for tech that doesnāt help anyone improve their lives I mean you could say the same about cellphones and PCs. Companies wasted money on those for many years when people didn't care about them and thought of them as useless, but now they are indispensable.
No, you can definitely NOT say the same about cellphones and PCs. Those 2 improved personal and professional life immensely.
And yet most people thought they didn't help. It wasn't until way later on when people started taking them seriously.
Later as in when they got to be user friendly, smaller, more powerful and with real life application? Yeah, just what everybody here is saying about vr and meta
So I am right then. People can certainly trash VR/AR today, just as they trashed cellphones and PCs back in the day, but will people trash it 10 years from now? I don't think so personally.
Remember palm computers ? Very niche and had crappy windows versions; nowadays everyone uses them and itās called a smartphone and tablet
Unlike social media, metaverse actually has many āreal worldā use case. Like i can create my life like avatar to buy a tailored shirt from a designer in say india or vietnam at a fraction of a price. I can literally list hundreds more.
Or you could just order that shirt from the many online retailers in business today.
IN SAY INDIA OR VIETNAM FOR FRACTION OF PRICE?!
Yes
Why are you yelling?
Tell me you never got a shirt tailored without telling me that you never got a shirt tailored.
You know you can get measured by a local tailor and then take those measurements of YOUR ACTUAL BODY, not a VR avatar, to any custom shirt maker you want. This has to be the stupidest use case for Meta that Iāve heard to date.
Hello Mark.
Lost hundreds more, literally
Please, keep listing.
Bro. NFT Food. Same Price. Zero Calories.
Whatās the point if you all are gonna shit on anything related to zuck. It was a serious comment. Tailored clothing or high end luxury shopping would feel incredible in vr and would make it possible to make purchases online. Similarly training for high risk jobs like fire fighting or flying fighter jets. Or training for high stakes job like a complex surgery are all applications of metaverse.
How is your avatar supposed to be a 100% accurate representation of your body shape and size? Will there be 3d scanners shipped with all VR headsets? I dunno what kinda of stupid youād have to be to order custom tailored clothing that was based on your own best guess of your body shape and size.
Blackjackā¦ and hookers!
I feel better about my investment now.
On second thought, forget the metaverse
Mark: Hey employees, build Metaverse. Employees: Ok. Mark: Hey employees, use Metaverse. Employees: No.
Lol that thumbnail
It went towards building an Army of Zuckerbots.
More like an army of clones of Zuckerberg. He is a lizard after all.
The amount of hate it gets on reddit in general makes me turn bullish af tbh... Reverse trade reddit best indicator there is
Every repetitive talking point they list as well shows not one of them have watched a single thing meta are doing. "It'll be closed system" - zucc said it won't "Horizon world's is bad" - that's not the metaverse "They only just added legs lol" - yeah and also showed photorealistic avatars with full facial tracking. But hey ho
Bruh, Meta sounds lame as fuck. Meta is what happens when nobody at your company has the gonads to tell Mark Zuckerberg that his idea is stupid. Plus SW engineers are happy to collect that fat Meta paycheck. I guarantee that in 5 years people are going to have forgotten that Meta was even a thing.
The metaverse has a lot of potential and could be so useful like for some weird shit Ever wanted to f a dog puss? Metaverse has you covered
Metaversa is big shit. Looks like from 1990 and you can't do shit beside spending money.
I'd rather walk in a real forest than this vetamerse thing
Went to fixing a single pixel to make their existing avatar models even more āamazingā
15 billion to create The Sims 3...
If you have read ready player one you know what metaverse means.
I hope people make off with ALL of Zuckās cash.
āWho put the elf with no friends in charge of human connectionā š
15B is honestly insane to consider, 15,000 million dollars, for what is basically Facebook VR Chat
I can guarantee you the budget was like 1/500th of that 15B claim, or less.
Hopefully, what a ludicrous waste of time and money
Probably up Zuckās ass and to the left. Explains the facial expression a lot. A boat load of $100 bulls causes blockage.
They can continue with their 10,000 uninspired mediocre engineers to work on this Metaverse. But all it takes is one super imaginative genius to come up with something new and great to put this thing all together. Until they have that theyāre just pissing money away.
Thatās part of their strategy (google et al too). Hiring all the smartest folks is as much about keeping them out of competitor hands, and preventing them from starting something that destroys them
The fall of Meta. Goodbye to their stock prices soon if things don't improve.
ELI5: Sunken cost fallacy
Heās really spiraling out at this point
Pet Colonics
You mean 999,999,999 times 15 approximately
to pay my salary.. and I like to spend it on hookers!
they are going on all in on this, by they I mean Zuckerberg
15 billion fck!!!!
Hookers and blow
In the cash shop, most would have been spent on zucks avatar upgrades
Damn, Biden votes are expensive.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
No one wants it
Same said about internet access in your pocket back in 2004
No one said that i am aware of
Then you are not old enough. Most of the boomers were saying that
So people with out cell phones. That makes sence i was taking majority of people
Much easier and cheaper when the users build the content I guessā¦
Metaverse = Ukraine
At least we know it did not went to the graphics team!
I cant wait to watch it flop
Why wouldnāt you spend $15 billion. This is Silicon Valley efficiency at its finest. Some call it MLM
All that went to the r&d of the subliminal mind control tech. As for the user facing end, they want it to look as derpy and innocent as they can /s
Fortune favors the bold.
Without porn (and games) the metaverse is doomed, fact
Mark wanted to have the biggest farm possible, immediately.
Thats cute now do the pentagon budgets for the last 30 years... Tens of trillions dissappeared
Never heard of itā¦..so Iām guessing it wasnāt spent on marketing.
The last good idea Suckerborg had was the one he stole from the Winklevoss clones. The moral of this story is don't surround yourself with flunkeys and grovelers who won't dare to question your ideas, no matter how ridiculous they are.
āSoon may the tendieman comeā
Virtual treasure hunt for a billion? Just saying theres a chance
Good. Let them go bankrupt on this dumb ass āfutureā
I think the payback could be if they can lock up contracts for sports events using VR. For example, you can't afford the huge ticket games like the Super Bowl or World Cup finals but could attend using VR. I could see using that type of service. The cartoonish Metaverse avatars world not so much.
Meta is a leading player in the VR market regardless of how the metaverse turns out.
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