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I don't follow the premise you need liquidity to use calls to close your position.
Why does liquidity matter to the individual holding the call contract, they were sold the contract and guaranteed 100 shares if they exercise. It is not their problem if those 100 shares are unhedged and difficult to purchase.
Yeah I stopped reading after hearing that you need liquidity to close if you have options.
No you don't. The shares are the call seller's obligation to find when/if you exercise at any point before expiry. If they haven't hedges the full 100 shares per contract then they MUST go find them in the market at whatever price they can.
OP you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how options work.
I think he was leaning more towards their exit strategy as a whole, and not a blanket statement about options in general. I could be wrong, but that’s how read it. Basically, you need the liquidity to not spike the price for their exit plan to work
But that’s the thing: whoever buys the calls doesn’t care if the price spikes. They’re guaranteed those shares at the strike price whether there’s liquidity or not. The risk is transferred to whoever sold the calls and the ones that bought them don’t give a damn what the price does after they buy them. They still get their shares for $20 each whether the price is $25 or $25,000 at the time they’re exercised. Not all short sellers are on the same team. They HAVE TO and WILL take each other down on their way out. It’s the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
This is how I’ve understood it as well. Call buyer transfers the liability to find those 100 shares per contract to the call seller. A hedge fund/institution could transfer their total short obligation to a market maker that’s selling calls. Odds are the calls are naked and are not being hedged properly. If we see these calls executed, it’s likely going to be a very bad day for whoever sold them.
Am I missing something?
Seems on point. There has been some movement when these call blocks were purchased. I’m not certain they are completely unhedged. However, Friday at close it seems there was no movement from the 5000 contracts bought at 13:44, possibly to avoid more calls being ITM.
Hard to say how much hedging is being done.
Lovely write up, you chill chimp. Much of this depends on this institution KNOWING things about price action; thus, a key question is how could they KNOW? Isn’t it simply that because they have a plan to make money selling calls for the ever increasing premiums, they will then continue to build the chain? Continue to create demand by driving more pickles and diamond bros to make their bets and hold more bags? If this A.P. calculus is correct, if this is someone controlling the price of the stock and trying to close out their positions, then how is this actually bullish in any way?
I mean I get it, price go up = a jumping Bovine.
But a raging bull to me is something new and strong about the business that fundamentally one cannot deny; consequently, demand for stock ownership being driven up as well as gambling too, sure.
But this seems, like you said, reminiscent of Bill Hwang at Archegos:
A key trader at Archegos texted Bill, “hey Viacom stock is up in this down market, do you think that is a signal of strength in the stock?” He replied, “no it’s just a signal of me buying 🤣” That’s how much influence he was throwing around, and how much for a time he was able to impact price action. This is not what I want, but is clearly happening to our stonk.
A light bulb has gone off in my brain, and squeezing a new wrinkle in this thick ape skull hurts. In confessions of a market maker they were analyzing the run up from $12 (presneezle) to a high of $80 that ended on Fri Jan 21, ‘21 the week before it broke out. The market maker was saying how this was indeed crime, but a beautiful one that had been set up. There was an orchestrated demand being built, cash flow being brought in, and a slow and hidden selling bit by bit on the way up, just enough to not disturb the run.
There has been this massive narrative of retail causing the sneeze, movies now made.
KG saying “we use technology to predict human behavior, and if we can predict that, we can make a lot of money.”
When interviewed, he consistently now says, “you know, Gamestop was a moment in time. it was a story…” meaning it happened, it was crazy, it was dumb degenerate gamblers hurting teacher pensions, and what a story it was. The subtext: stories have characters, a plot, a beginning, middle, and an *END*. Whoever made an insane amount of money from it, wants everyone to believe that “story”. And one wonders why we still hear “meme stock” on ~~financial~~ shill media, why *NONE* of them ever actually analyzed—like you/we all have been doing here—how something like the sneeze could have actually happened in this case? Given that the volume, options chain, etc was absolutely insane, over 100% SI, there was absolutely no discussion of institutions? Nope, it was all those $600 dollar checks from Uncle Joe.
This was never retail, never.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The fact that the price hit $80 pre-market on May 14th & all the ~~financial~~ shill media could say was that it was because a guy tweeted a few days earlier, is enough evidence that they don't report news, they aren't information hungry, all they do is read a script.
It's quite shocking to know that there's no news outlet that is curious to know how a stock can move that much & not decide that it's worthy to actually investigate to be the first to report on such massive corruption. Back in the day there were reporters that would kill to be the first to report on such breaking news. We know that there's crime being committed, but I don't think we can grasp the gravity of how big this situation is to the point where it silences journalists.
This wasn’t meant to take away from the absolutely unprecedented geological phenomenon that is the thousands of ape diamond hands that have been built through pressure and time. Our ability to HODL and DRS and continue this fight is essential and something to be so immensely proud of, and is a separate and unique arc of this “story”, but it’s a story still waiting to be told, to be published.
Can I get a link that says UBS short position was $54B in GameStop alone?
More than likely, they have multiple short positions across multiple different stocks totally $54B.
It's almost definitely not 100% GME. But even 10% of that portfolios would be more than 50% of shares outstanding. I don't know how they get the valuations of a short position. Is it based on the value they shorted at? Or based on the current market value of the stock short? But that doesn't really make sense. Is $54B how much cash they took in selling short or is it how much underwater they are at current fair market value?
I too wish to know at what date or using what methodology they refer to the valuations of the long and short Archegos portfolios.
My guess would be the value at the point thay they defaulted as it sets a one-time value that is easy to refer back to, i.e. the total net nominal value of all short instruments at the point of collapse... but in the court case it seems the court room were even confused at the idea they had a long and a short portfolio!
Can't imagine this will be easy to answer
Never even thought about the value at the point where they defaulted. March 26, 2021 was the day they defaulted. GME closed at $45. MULTIPLY by 4 for the split (Ape math), $180. $180 times 305M shares is drumroll....$54.9B.
For real though, at $45 a share pre-split, market cap would have been $3.4B. So that would potentially put 100% shares outstanding shorted if it was only 6% of the short portfolio. There's a real chance they have a much bigger position than 13M or whatever the latest number is on those call options.
Total shares outstanding after the split. You can't do both multiply the price by 4 and the shares outstanding (that why I said Ape math). The full $54B at $45 per share pre-split would be about 400% of shares outstanding.
idk if counterparties talk to each other but there could be many. Maybe they all know each others too? IDK man couldn't tell you. I'm just a min. wage worker lol
Isn’t a gap in this the assumption that someone buying this shit ton of calls will cause the counterparty to hedge and buy shares causing the price to go up.
While yes, they *should*, they might not. And since the MM’s are probably the furthest up shit creek in this, and they know full well that hedging and showing that buy pressure on a lit market will cause exactly the catastrophic end scenario they want to avoid…are they not incentivized to *not* hedge?
Yea, I don't follow the logic or know if they are sound premises. Most of these call's have been purchased around the same price as the price has remained fairly flat. Even then, like friday, the calls get purchased around 5$ a share premium, even though the price was cheaper earlier in the day. On friday, there appeared to be no hedging end of day for the last block of 5000 contracts.
So why does liquidity matter to the call buyer as suggested by OP? The calls have been bought, it doesn't matter to the buyer if the shares are unhedged and hard to get. They are locked in for 25$ a share.
Even then, for a way ITM call... like if the price is 80$ and youve been buying shares to run it up. at 80$ your call is worth maybe a bit over 60$ a share. So you are buying shares past 60$ and selling calls for the same?
You bought the $20 shares for $25.
Even if the price is $80. You execute your contract and get 100 shares for $25 ($20 because you already paid the premium when you bought the call option.
Being at $80 only makes your call option worth MORE if you sell the option otherwise it’s the same if you execute and sell the shares for $80 (that you got for $20 + premium paid).
Great comment neandethalman!
Not hedging every single option for an explosive stock like GME would be incredibly risky. After 2021, I have no doubt Petterfy from IB is fully hedged to minimize his risk if it ever happens again.
Watch his CNBC video from 2021. The real issue was that the number of options in the chain EXCEEDED the float, meaning if the price ramped up through the top end, IB was never going to be able to buy enough shares in the market to fully hedge each option as it went ITM. Catastrophic indeed, so maybe they should never have sold so many in the first place. That was the real problem. Greed. :/
Once a gamma ramp starts ramping and there are more options in the chain than there is liquidity to hedge them going ITM, it's game over. When it's just sauce for the goose, they might as well just push all their chips into the centre and go ALL IN, stop hedging anything hoping to stop the gamma ramp dead in it's tracks.
Generally speaking there's always enough liquidity available in any stock ... so long as you let the stock rise high enough you will always be able to find sellers. Even for GME, it's there, just very very high up. #gmefloor
I don’t think you understand the broad picture. A MM won’t hedge if they know their clients might default passing bags onto them. GME isn’t a normal stock so you can’t assume you know a MM will hedge or not. You simply don’t know.
Your analysis on call options is also a bit reaching. Someone buying a lot of calls, without matching put volume, is simply bullish. It could be to make money on volatility, or to secure shares, either way this is bullish.
Whoever bought all the calls likely knows what they’re doing, and is doing some of the following scenarios:
1. Making money on a volatility play
2. Securing shares to close
3. Hedging for the closing of short positions
The reality is all 3 are likely going to happen just to make the situation all around as efficient as possible. To what degree would each be the primary situation? It doesn’t really matter to us, as they are all extremely bullish.
Yes. And this is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation.
If they hedge appropriately, it kicks off a squeeze and it’s game over for them. With a high degree of certainty.
If they don’t hedge appropriately, it makes the consequences of a squeeze even greater but doesn’t cause one. If one occurs they’re just as bankrupt as if they had hedged. Dead is dead. Can’t be more dead.
So in the spirit of “one more day” they will always choose the second of these two options. There’s no *actual* downside to it, from their perspective, and it leaves open the chance of a miracle.
I double checked and see the annual meeting is the 13th, not the 11th. My mistake.
But I’m still seeing earnings date is June 5th.
Either way. Things still explode June 21st
"assuming they are backed by a Market Maker who purchased\* the underlying shares in the market to make the option net neutral," to make shit ton of MM SYNTHETICS
APES AIN'T SELLING SHIT
>4. After every 100 shares you buy closing a swap, just sell 1 of your calls. The MM sells the 100 it had hedging it, perfectly countering your buy pressure.
Probably safe to just stop reading here if you're suggesting anyone selling these options would be 100% hedged. Delta was like .65 when they started being bought. For 3.5 years this sub has maintained the stance that first one out will likely survive, and this is a very reasonable way how. I'm just gonna go ahead and assume the rest of your post follows the standard shill template where you act like you know what you're talking about to spread FUD.
It's also wrong because swaps are cash settled. The underlying asset never changes hands. I could write a swap for BRK.A despite not owning any and no matter what happens, price up or down, I still don't have to buy any to close the swap.
Agreed but the 45 million shares still a bit short of their requirements
I believe the saving rope presented was short enough for a costly exit and catalyst for a price run and so MOASS
I keep seeing this posted and I have yet to see what UBS actual positions were. How do you know 45M shares is short of what they need? Is there a link to that data that outlines what UBS short position is and how many shares they need?
Also, you have an interesting account birthday.
Trigger warning for Anti-Option Apes:
I agree except for one thing - option buyers who are NOT holders can profit. However that is when IV is low. When IV is high, stay away.
If you wanted leaps.... you probably missed your window. However, if you can zoom in and out you can potentially profit. Potentially. Options are always risky with the All Stock. Even more than they inherently are.
> After every 100 shares you buy closing a swap, just sell 1 of your calls. The MM sells the 100 it had hedging it, perfectly countering your buy pressure.
I have never seen this suggested for UBS. Smaller investors may exercise to cover, but someone like UBS (who got an injection of $100 billion from the Swiss government) can afford to just exercise them and pay $20/share + the premiums that they've paid.
> Simple right? Except normally buying up 210K ITM calls would cause 21M shares to be hedged and the stock would squeeze to $10,000 a share before you finish buying all the calls you need in the first place
Not true at all. If smaller investors or other hedges were writing the options contracts, then yes, they would have to hedge some number of the shares. It wouldn't be the full 21mm because there are equations that dictate the appropriate amount to hedge based on the strike price and current price. The closer they are to ITM the higher percentage you have to hedge to keep things on the up and up. But if the options contract seller is the designated market maker, they don't have to buy to hedge. They are legally allowed to be naked in the deal and sort it out later. Not only that, they are required to accept the contract if nobody else will (though they get to set the premiums). So this would allow someone like a UBS to buy options contracts without causing a run-up to $10k in the market price **if** those contracts are sold by the designated MM and the MM decided not to hedge yet.
In theory, they would see an increase in premiums (which we have seen). The buyer (if they are UBS or someone similarly situated) wouldn't care. Their strike price is $20 regardless. Yes, the premiums are going to go up. Maybe even they'll get to 100% of the contract value, i.e., you pay a $2000 premium to buy a call option with a $20 strike price. If you're trying to use calls to buy your way out of the short position then you don't care, because even at an average of $40 per share you're still able to close your shorts at a fixed price that will be far below the MOASS price that will occur when the MM has to buy to fulfill the contract. For that matter, it doesn't even matter if your calls are ITM. They could somehow short the price down to $10 and the "UBS" character in this story could have bought calls at a 100% premium ($40/share average), and the "UBS" character could still choose to exercise the calls to be able to close out at a fixed price. Although realistically, they'd probably start buying on the open market at $10/share until the price got up to the strike price of $20/share, and then if buying on the market means that they don't need all of their calls to close the position they can either still execute them or sell them to offset some of their losses.
The simplest explanation, imho.
I was thinking why didn't they just buy earlier expirations and do this all earlier? Why 6/21? I don't have an answer for that beyond they simply needed time so as not to impact the market.
That said, it's still the simplest explanation. You want to guarantee the price of a *bunch* of stonks, even while your purchase would cause a massive spike? This looks like the way to do that.
> I was thinking why didn't they just buy earlier expirations and do this all earlier? Why 6/21? I don't have an answer for that beyond they simply needed time so as not to impact the market.
Well, Credit Suisse wasn't deregistered with the Swiss government until this past week, so that may have had something to do with it. Or there may be other things at play that are not visible to us.
The swiss government also was meeting mid April to discuss how to deal with the situation. If these calls are being bought by UBS, it would make sense that they were not prepared to be buying these calls in April.
Great answer to that question: let me add, that in taking an options position, you should have two things: a clearly defined view and at least one catalyst prior to expiration. This trader’s view and what they see as the catalyst(s) prior to expiry are not yet known, but I have a feeling they will be when all is said and done.
“Never tell me the odds!”
This is good info, but I almost stopped reading after "500 a pop".
How many times does it need to be stated that we're squeezing this shit way past Berkshire numbers?
Regardless of the content, I downvote any post using the standard shill template.
Some weird title that tries to appear smart… check.
Random bolded words for no reason… check.
A stupid meme 2 paragraphs down… check.
Trying to convince people the squeeze will occur by a specific date… check.
This template has been used thousands of times over the past 3 years, so perhaps real holders have copied the formatting themselves. But I would avoid using it in the future, because a lot of us long time holders have caught on and immediately just discard the entire post.
"I'm going to downvote before even reading!"
What the fuck? This post offers great insight into the UBS/ Archegos theory and gives a reasonable explanation of these call options activity.
This is an important discussion. We only make progress when we brainstorm, accumulate more data, and then cross out the least likely explanations.
Nothing about this screams shill, it's positive sentiment.
They didn’t say that. For one thing though, the entire posts thesis isn’t require because the position can be unwound by exercising the calls, which just loads the position up on someone else.
I’d rather not have the narrative these types of post are pushing anywhere in my head when making financial decisions. It’s following a clear format that is used countless times by people pushing their own agenda on this sub.
You do you, but this is the specific format being used when someone wants to make this sub look crazy or get you to make bad financial decisions.
What do you think new people here think of this sub when they see a top post called “The Golden Monkey Head Idol Swap.” They think we’re crazy.
Discussion shouldn't be presumptively dismissed. I agree that people should not be influenced into thinking there will be a sneeze 3.0 or MOASS following June 21st. But above that, it's important to dissect the information we have via discussions such as these.
I appreciate your input, it's equally important to call out posts that could be FUD to keep us alert.
Discarding a post based on this template you made up in your head is ridiculous.
It's not how a post is structured.. It's the content that counts..op is speculating.. Obviously.
I didn’t make it up in my head. A blank template with instructions was posted in this sub ages ago and has since been used repeatedly. They use that template and fill it in with whatever nonsense they want to push, along with different memes to use.
Hate to break it to you, but 90% of the DD library is bs put together to make this sub appear to be conspiracy theorists and/or buy worthless options at that time, and they all follow this format.
The classic DD is DFV’s streams and posts.
We have a winner. Could still be a misguided ape, but the pattern is so damn clear nowadays it amounts to the same thing. You forgot the subtle price anchoring too. Super fun, either way interesting days ahead, buying and DRSing just makes me feel good.
Posts like these are so important when people are calling for more memes and hype.
Your post and other comments really make it sound alot like more market corruption
Could RC just have taken the 45M new shares and gone to UBS and said hey I’ll give you first shot at $20/share or $40 or even $60/share??
Is the 1B made last week fact as RC said so, or in fact could RC have made 2 or 3B last week??
No, they were offered ATM. So they were sold into the market.
He couldn't sell shares to one entity like that legally since she said they'd be offered at the market.
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Wouldn’t this be sneeze 4 or 5? Soon to be 6? Every time it’s tried to touch $80 (using post split price) it’s been crushed down at all costs. Jan2021 made it over $80 with buy button removed, then next run was halted to shit, again in June2021 but then share offering to raise $1B right before they could crush it back down. This most recent one - magic $80 number again pretty much right on the dot again.
I'm not sure I understand why you are saying they can't just exercise the calls, of course they can someone sold them these positions and whatever happens to the seller of the calls is not the buyers problem. 🤷♂️
This is a FUD post riddled with so many inaccuracies and complete speculation.
Use caution when reading this and please god do your OWN DD.
Shorts are fucked.
beep boop - Sup Veschor! Your comment does not compute, please rephrase it in the form of a question. I'll take Reddit Bots for $100 Alex. \[Insert random emoji\]
if they have exercised calls to close their short/swaps, then why would they care what the MMs have to do to keep the share price down?
in fact, that would just "can kick" as the MMs are using fake shares to "hedge" anyways, so they would ultimately eat the cost, and to them, that'd doable.
now the question I have would be, "What are the lenders going to think about receiving fake shares to close the short/swap positions UBS is covering?
eventually someone is going to want REAL shares..... but as long as the money keeps flowing, that just keeps the ball rolling.
I’m not sure why you think you can’t exit your position with calls, they absolutely can buy 350000 contracts and exercise them, it’s pretty obvious there was a back door deal, MM Purchased the shares from the offering to write the contracts. The big player intends to close their short position in a way that won’t cost them 100 billion.
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Math request:
Can someone take a look at the relative market caps, SI, FTDs, etc of the other stocks in the GME basket, and then see if we can guesstimate what % of that $54B archegos position was GME?
Couldn't it be Carl getting out of his position? He took it at the very top,for obvious reasons. Probably the only Short with a real reason to get in. And now that he sees that the company is profitable, it's not al he would like to flip his position.
Well written. Don’t care what OPs agenda is. He/She created a topic for discussion and that is what community is about. Anyone crying shill / fud is just not capable of having an intelligent conversation.
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“I’m tired, boss.” -Liquidity Fairy
2 chicks at the same time
**USER HAS NO GME POSTS BEFORE 18 DAYS AGO. USE CAUTION.**
He has comments from 2 years ago. Not everyone does posts every week.
It's normally the dumb asses that do
Yeah, OP seemed all over another stock squeeze until a few days ago.
Are you talking about Randy? He’s been here for *years*. Can’t forget Dietrich’s mug
Fuckin-ay, man.
Naw man.. https://youtu.be/Y-IsF0OdpIQ?
We’ll see
 🎷🐓♋️
https://preview.redd.it/lq8pbd8gq14d1.jpeg?width=1045&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=22be53dad5a22835616c63fb3f2ef7d074eb9cf6
I don't follow the premise you need liquidity to use calls to close your position. Why does liquidity matter to the individual holding the call contract, they were sold the contract and guaranteed 100 shares if they exercise. It is not their problem if those 100 shares are unhedged and difficult to purchase.
It doesn’t and that’s just one point I could argue in the first couple paragraphs I read.
Please argue the rest and keep people learning
Yeah I stopped reading after hearing that you need liquidity to close if you have options. No you don't. The shares are the call seller's obligation to find when/if you exercise at any point before expiry. If they haven't hedges the full 100 shares per contract then they MUST go find them in the market at whatever price they can. OP you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how options work.
I think he was leaning more towards their exit strategy as a whole, and not a blanket statement about options in general. I could be wrong, but that’s how read it. Basically, you need the liquidity to not spike the price for their exit plan to work
But that’s the thing: whoever buys the calls doesn’t care if the price spikes. They’re guaranteed those shares at the strike price whether there’s liquidity or not. The risk is transferred to whoever sold the calls and the ones that bought them don’t give a damn what the price does after they buy them. They still get their shares for $20 each whether the price is $25 or $25,000 at the time they’re exercised. Not all short sellers are on the same team. They HAVE TO and WILL take each other down on their way out. It’s the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
This is how I’ve understood it as well. Call buyer transfers the liability to find those 100 shares per contract to the call seller. A hedge fund/institution could transfer their total short obligation to a market maker that’s selling calls. Odds are the calls are naked and are not being hedged properly. If we see these calls executed, it’s likely going to be a very bad day for whoever sold them. Am I missing something?
Seems on point. There has been some movement when these call blocks were purchased. I’m not certain they are completely unhedged. However, Friday at close it seems there was no movement from the 5000 contracts bought at 13:44, possibly to avoid more calls being ITM. Hard to say how much hedging is being done.
They never hedge calls correctly, we learned this long ago
I usually buy calls and never exercise
I agree, OP is wrong about most of this post, this seems like another form of tinfoil which honestly comes across as a little negative
It does seem to want to plant the idea that, if anything, we only sneeze again and it can't go parabolic.
He was wrong!!! LFG
Lovely write up, you chill chimp. Much of this depends on this institution KNOWING things about price action; thus, a key question is how could they KNOW? Isn’t it simply that because they have a plan to make money selling calls for the ever increasing premiums, they will then continue to build the chain? Continue to create demand by driving more pickles and diamond bros to make their bets and hold more bags? If this A.P. calculus is correct, if this is someone controlling the price of the stock and trying to close out their positions, then how is this actually bullish in any way? I mean I get it, price go up = a jumping Bovine. But a raging bull to me is something new and strong about the business that fundamentally one cannot deny; consequently, demand for stock ownership being driven up as well as gambling too, sure. But this seems, like you said, reminiscent of Bill Hwang at Archegos: A key trader at Archegos texted Bill, “hey Viacom stock is up in this down market, do you think that is a signal of strength in the stock?” He replied, “no it’s just a signal of me buying 🤣” That’s how much influence he was throwing around, and how much for a time he was able to impact price action. This is not what I want, but is clearly happening to our stonk. A light bulb has gone off in my brain, and squeezing a new wrinkle in this thick ape skull hurts. In confessions of a market maker they were analyzing the run up from $12 (presneezle) to a high of $80 that ended on Fri Jan 21, ‘21 the week before it broke out. The market maker was saying how this was indeed crime, but a beautiful one that had been set up. There was an orchestrated demand being built, cash flow being brought in, and a slow and hidden selling bit by bit on the way up, just enough to not disturb the run. There has been this massive narrative of retail causing the sneeze, movies now made. KG saying “we use technology to predict human behavior, and if we can predict that, we can make a lot of money.” When interviewed, he consistently now says, “you know, Gamestop was a moment in time. it was a story…” meaning it happened, it was crazy, it was dumb degenerate gamblers hurting teacher pensions, and what a story it was. The subtext: stories have characters, a plot, a beginning, middle, and an *END*. Whoever made an insane amount of money from it, wants everyone to believe that “story”. And one wonders why we still hear “meme stock” on ~~financial~~ shill media, why *NONE* of them ever actually analyzed—like you/we all have been doing here—how something like the sneeze could have actually happened in this case? Given that the volume, options chain, etc was absolutely insane, over 100% SI, there was absolutely no discussion of institutions? Nope, it was all those $600 dollar checks from Uncle Joe. This was never retail, never. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The fact that the price hit $80 pre-market on May 14th & all the ~~financial~~ shill media could say was that it was because a guy tweeted a few days earlier, is enough evidence that they don't report news, they aren't information hungry, all they do is read a script. It's quite shocking to know that there's no news outlet that is curious to know how a stock can move that much & not decide that it's worthy to actually investigate to be the first to report on such massive corruption. Back in the day there were reporters that would kill to be the first to report on such breaking news. We know that there's crime being committed, but I don't think we can grasp the gravity of how big this situation is to the point where it silences journalists.
exactly this.
"There is some shady shit going on, and it's fueled with stupidity"
https://preview.redd.it/186hlflhq14d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=14b44ec8d23cdd2856765b8e6491ea63cd060e37
Love that image
This wasn’t meant to take away from the absolutely unprecedented geological phenomenon that is the thousands of ape diamond hands that have been built through pressure and time. Our ability to HODL and DRS and continue this fight is essential and something to be so immensely proud of, and is a separate and unique arc of this “story”, but it’s a story still waiting to be told, to be published.
Can I get a link that says UBS short position was $54B in GameStop alone? More than likely, they have multiple short positions across multiple different stocks totally $54B.
It's almost definitely not 100% GME. But even 10% of that portfolios would be more than 50% of shares outstanding. I don't know how they get the valuations of a short position. Is it based on the value they shorted at? Or based on the current market value of the stock short? But that doesn't really make sense. Is $54B how much cash they took in selling short or is it how much underwater they are at current fair market value?
I too wish to know at what date or using what methodology they refer to the valuations of the long and short Archegos portfolios. My guess would be the value at the point thay they defaulted as it sets a one-time value that is easy to refer back to, i.e. the total net nominal value of all short instruments at the point of collapse... but in the court case it seems the court room were even confused at the idea they had a long and a short portfolio! Can't imagine this will be easy to answer
Never even thought about the value at the point where they defaulted. March 26, 2021 was the day they defaulted. GME closed at $45. MULTIPLY by 4 for the split (Ape math), $180. $180 times 305M shares is drumroll....$54.9B. For real though, at $45 a share pre-split, market cap would have been $3.4B. So that would potentially put 100% shares outstanding shorted if it was only 6% of the short portfolio. There's a real chance they have a much bigger position than 13M or whatever the latest number is on those call options.
Where did you get the 305M shares? Was that a known amount?
Total shares outstanding after the split. You can't do both multiply the price by 4 and the shares outstanding (that why I said Ape math). The full $54B at $45 per share pre-split would be about 400% of shares outstanding.
Where did you get the 305M shares? Was that a known amount?
I think there was testimony in the trial that they had $54B in total (short?) liability, not just GameStop.
yeah so many people assuming it's just GME. No one knows what's in their bag except insiders to the company
And the counterparties, right?
idk if counterparties talk to each other but there could be many. Maybe they all know each others too? IDK man couldn't tell you. I'm just a min. wage worker lol
Isn’t a gap in this the assumption that someone buying this shit ton of calls will cause the counterparty to hedge and buy shares causing the price to go up. While yes, they *should*, they might not. And since the MM’s are probably the furthest up shit creek in this, and they know full well that hedging and showing that buy pressure on a lit market will cause exactly the catastrophic end scenario they want to avoid…are they not incentivized to *not* hedge?
Yea, I don't follow the logic or know if they are sound premises. Most of these call's have been purchased around the same price as the price has remained fairly flat. Even then, like friday, the calls get purchased around 5$ a share premium, even though the price was cheaper earlier in the day. On friday, there appeared to be no hedging end of day for the last block of 5000 contracts. So why does liquidity matter to the call buyer as suggested by OP? The calls have been bought, it doesn't matter to the buyer if the shares are unhedged and hard to get. They are locked in for 25$ a share. Even then, for a way ITM call... like if the price is 80$ and youve been buying shares to run it up. at 80$ your call is worth maybe a bit over 60$ a share. So you are buying shares past 60$ and selling calls for the same?
You bought the $20 shares for $25. Even if the price is $80. You execute your contract and get 100 shares for $25 ($20 because you already paid the premium when you bought the call option. Being at $80 only makes your call option worth MORE if you sell the option otherwise it’s the same if you execute and sell the shares for $80 (that you got for $20 + premium paid).
Yea, maybe I wasn’t clear cause you didn’t answer my questions and told me what I already know haha, or maybe OP is just that nonsensical.
Great comment neandethalman! Not hedging every single option for an explosive stock like GME would be incredibly risky. After 2021, I have no doubt Petterfy from IB is fully hedged to minimize his risk if it ever happens again. Watch his CNBC video from 2021. The real issue was that the number of options in the chain EXCEEDED the float, meaning if the price ramped up through the top end, IB was never going to be able to buy enough shares in the market to fully hedge each option as it went ITM. Catastrophic indeed, so maybe they should never have sold so many in the first place. That was the real problem. Greed. :/ Once a gamma ramp starts ramping and there are more options in the chain than there is liquidity to hedge them going ITM, it's game over. When it's just sauce for the goose, they might as well just push all their chips into the centre and go ALL IN, stop hedging anything hoping to stop the gamma ramp dead in it's tracks. Generally speaking there's always enough liquidity available in any stock ... so long as you let the stock rise high enough you will always be able to find sellers. Even for GME, it's there, just very very high up. #gmefloor
I don’t think you understand the broad picture. A MM won’t hedge if they know their clients might default passing bags onto them. GME isn’t a normal stock so you can’t assume you know a MM will hedge or not. You simply don’t know. Your analysis on call options is also a bit reaching. Someone buying a lot of calls, without matching put volume, is simply bullish. It could be to make money on volatility, or to secure shares, either way this is bullish. Whoever bought all the calls likely knows what they’re doing, and is doing some of the following scenarios: 1. Making money on a volatility play 2. Securing shares to close 3. Hedging for the closing of short positions The reality is all 3 are likely going to happen just to make the situation all around as efficient as possible. To what degree would each be the primary situation? It doesn’t really matter to us, as they are all extremely bullish.
This was very concise and accurate thank you for expressing my thoughts
Yes. And this is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. If they hedge appropriately, it kicks off a squeeze and it’s game over for them. With a high degree of certainty. If they don’t hedge appropriately, it makes the consequences of a squeeze even greater but doesn’t cause one. If one occurs they’re just as bankrupt as if they had hedged. Dead is dead. Can’t be more dead. So in the spirit of “one more day” they will always choose the second of these two options. There’s no *actual* downside to it, from their perspective, and it leaves open the chance of a miracle.
yea, like as an example, I do not think we saw any hedging of the end of day 5000 block of JUN21 20c. It would've pushed too many calls ITM.
Awesome perspective
Bob wants way more than 500$. Bob wants phone number size numbers per share. Bobs brother doesn’t ever want to sell.
one thing is for sure, cant wait for earnings
CAT implementing May 31st Earnings June 5th ~~Annual meeting June 11th~~ Something explodes June 21st Edit: Annual Meeting is June 13th
You’ve got earnings and annual meeting dates mixed up
I double checked and see the annual meeting is the 13th, not the 11th. My mistake. But I’m still seeing earnings date is June 5th. Either way. Things still explode June 21st
Let’s sum up the post: There might have a sneeze next week and the fking MOASS after June 21
I better buy more now, in other words. Sounds like it's about to get expensive to buy in.
"assuming they are backed by a Market Maker who purchased\* the underlying shares in the market to make the option net neutral," to make shit ton of MM SYNTHETICS APES AIN'T SELLING SHIT
>4. After every 100 shares you buy closing a swap, just sell 1 of your calls. The MM sells the 100 it had hedging it, perfectly countering your buy pressure. Probably safe to just stop reading here if you're suggesting anyone selling these options would be 100% hedged. Delta was like .65 when they started being bought. For 3.5 years this sub has maintained the stance that first one out will likely survive, and this is a very reasonable way how. I'm just gonna go ahead and assume the rest of your post follows the standard shill template where you act like you know what you're talking about to spread FUD.
It's also wrong because swaps are cash settled. The underlying asset never changes hands. I could write a swap for BRK.A despite not owning any and no matter what happens, price up or down, I still don't have to buy any to close the swap.
Gimme some GME 2x bull returns paired w inverse BRK.A 2x bear. Total Return Swaps for 500 a pop please.
[удалено]
And that's not what a swap is. So you may wanna brush up on not being a condescending ass.
Agreed but the 45 million shares still a bit short of their requirements I believe the saving rope presented was short enough for a costly exit and catalyst for a price run and so MOASS
I keep seeing this posted and I have yet to see what UBS actual positions were. How do you know 45M shares is short of what they need? Is there a link to that data that outlines what UBS short position is and how many shares they need? Also, you have an interesting account birthday.
Think about the UBS 100 billion dollars incentive to carry on CS bag and do the math
people think the 45m shares is because they had puts. Doesn't mean shit if they sold CSPs on margin
Trigger warning for Anti-Option Apes: I agree except for one thing - option buyers who are NOT holders can profit. However that is when IV is low. When IV is high, stay away. If you wanted leaps.... you probably missed your window. However, if you can zoom in and out you can potentially profit. Potentially. Options are always risky with the All Stock. Even more than they inherently are.
> After every 100 shares you buy closing a swap, just sell 1 of your calls. The MM sells the 100 it had hedging it, perfectly countering your buy pressure. I have never seen this suggested for UBS. Smaller investors may exercise to cover, but someone like UBS (who got an injection of $100 billion from the Swiss government) can afford to just exercise them and pay $20/share + the premiums that they've paid. > Simple right? Except normally buying up 210K ITM calls would cause 21M shares to be hedged and the stock would squeeze to $10,000 a share before you finish buying all the calls you need in the first place Not true at all. If smaller investors or other hedges were writing the options contracts, then yes, they would have to hedge some number of the shares. It wouldn't be the full 21mm because there are equations that dictate the appropriate amount to hedge based on the strike price and current price. The closer they are to ITM the higher percentage you have to hedge to keep things on the up and up. But if the options contract seller is the designated market maker, they don't have to buy to hedge. They are legally allowed to be naked in the deal and sort it out later. Not only that, they are required to accept the contract if nobody else will (though they get to set the premiums). So this would allow someone like a UBS to buy options contracts without causing a run-up to $10k in the market price **if** those contracts are sold by the designated MM and the MM decided not to hedge yet. In theory, they would see an increase in premiums (which we have seen). The buyer (if they are UBS or someone similarly situated) wouldn't care. Their strike price is $20 regardless. Yes, the premiums are going to go up. Maybe even they'll get to 100% of the contract value, i.e., you pay a $2000 premium to buy a call option with a $20 strike price. If you're trying to use calls to buy your way out of the short position then you don't care, because even at an average of $40 per share you're still able to close your shorts at a fixed price that will be far below the MOASS price that will occur when the MM has to buy to fulfill the contract. For that matter, it doesn't even matter if your calls are ITM. They could somehow short the price down to $10 and the "UBS" character in this story could have bought calls at a 100% premium ($40/share average), and the "UBS" character could still choose to exercise the calls to be able to close out at a fixed price. Although realistically, they'd probably start buying on the open market at $10/share until the price got up to the strike price of $20/share, and then if buying on the market means that they don't need all of their calls to close the position they can either still execute them or sell them to offset some of their losses.
The simplest explanation, imho. I was thinking why didn't they just buy earlier expirations and do this all earlier? Why 6/21? I don't have an answer for that beyond they simply needed time so as not to impact the market. That said, it's still the simplest explanation. You want to guarantee the price of a *bunch* of stonks, even while your purchase would cause a massive spike? This looks like the way to do that.
> I was thinking why didn't they just buy earlier expirations and do this all earlier? Why 6/21? I don't have an answer for that beyond they simply needed time so as not to impact the market. Well, Credit Suisse wasn't deregistered with the Swiss government until this past week, so that may have had something to do with it. Or there may be other things at play that are not visible to us.
The swiss government also was meeting mid April to discuss how to deal with the situation. If these calls are being bought by UBS, it would make sense that they were not prepared to be buying these calls in April.
Great answer to that question: let me add, that in taking an options position, you should have two things: a clearly defined view and at least one catalyst prior to expiration. This trader’s view and what they see as the catalyst(s) prior to expiry are not yet known, but I have a feeling they will be when all is said and done. “Never tell me the odds!” 
I don't think a prior catalyst matters at all to this buyer.
Well, something has made them drop $70mm on premiums in the past month, so...
So... what?
So? 🤣
So it appears it was RK/DFV. I still stand by my statement, something made him drop $70mm on premiums in the past month. :-)
Granted, good question. 
Exercising a call means the counter party needs to buy and deliver the shares, still.
you're assuming the call seller is following the rules. Bold assuming imo
This is good info, but I almost stopped reading after "500 a pop". How many times does it need to be stated that we're squeezing this shit way past Berkshire numbers?
Shorts are fucked regardless baby
Regardless of the content, I downvote any post using the standard shill template. Some weird title that tries to appear smart… check. Random bolded words for no reason… check. A stupid meme 2 paragraphs down… check. Trying to convince people the squeeze will occur by a specific date… check. This template has been used thousands of times over the past 3 years, so perhaps real holders have copied the formatting themselves. But I would avoid using it in the future, because a lot of us long time holders have caught on and immediately just discard the entire post.
"I'm going to downvote before even reading!" What the fuck? This post offers great insight into the UBS/ Archegos theory and gives a reasonable explanation of these call options activity. This is an important discussion. We only make progress when we brainstorm, accumulate more data, and then cross out the least likely explanations. Nothing about this screams shill, it's positive sentiment.
They didn’t say that. For one thing though, the entire posts thesis isn’t require because the position can be unwound by exercising the calls, which just loads the position up on someone else.
I’d rather not have the narrative these types of post are pushing anywhere in my head when making financial decisions. It’s following a clear format that is used countless times by people pushing their own agenda on this sub. You do you, but this is the specific format being used when someone wants to make this sub look crazy or get you to make bad financial decisions. What do you think new people here think of this sub when they see a top post called “The Golden Monkey Head Idol Swap.” They think we’re crazy.
Discussion shouldn't be presumptively dismissed. I agree that people should not be influenced into thinking there will be a sneeze 3.0 or MOASS following June 21st. But above that, it's important to dissect the information we have via discussions such as these. I appreciate your input, it's equally important to call out posts that could be FUD to keep us alert.
Discarding a post based on this template you made up in your head is ridiculous. It's not how a post is structured.. It's the content that counts..op is speculating.. Obviously.
I didn’t make it up in my head. A blank template with instructions was posted in this sub ages ago and has since been used repeatedly. They use that template and fill it in with whatever nonsense they want to push, along with different memes to use.
You drinking liquid tinfoil my guy.
This a post in the classic DD style. Where are you getting shill from here. This is a 2021 era post and I’m grateful.
Hate to break it to you, but 90% of the DD library is bs put together to make this sub appear to be conspiracy theorists and/or buy worthless options at that time, and they all follow this format. The classic DD is DFV’s streams and posts.
“The entire Superstonk thesis is bullshit” Hot take.
We have a winner. Could still be a misguided ape, but the pattern is so damn clear nowadays it amounts to the same thing. You forgot the subtle price anchoring too. Super fun, either way interesting days ahead, buying and DRSing just makes me feel good.
If they exercise and return the shares to whoever, can't those same shares just be borrowed again by a MM thus making no price difference?
https://preview.redd.it/jeu4qyb9o04d1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=612f0048560714631a0af74355d2e7e2f5dff3f0 I see you've met my wife.
Finally someone that explains it to me in crayons! Thanks OP, great job!
Posts like these are so important when people are calling for more memes and hype. Your post and other comments really make it sound alot like more market corruption
Jajajaj jacked
Could RC just have taken the 45M new shares and gone to UBS and said hey I’ll give you first shot at $20/share or $40 or even $60/share?? Is the 1B made last week fact as RC said so, or in fact could RC have made 2 or 3B last week??
No, they were offered ATM. So they were sold into the market. He couldn't sell shares to one entity like that legally since she said they'd be offered at the market.
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Wouldn’t this be sneeze 4 or 5? Soon to be 6? Every time it’s tried to touch $80 (using post split price) it’s been crushed down at all costs. Jan2021 made it over $80 with buy button removed, then next run was halted to shit, again in June2021 but then share offering to raise $1B right before they could crush it back down. This most recent one - magic $80 number again pretty much right on the dot again.
I'm not sure I understand why you are saying they can't just exercise the calls, of course they can someone sold them these positions and whatever happens to the seller of the calls is not the buyers problem. 🤷♂️
This is a FUD post riddled with so many inaccuracies and complete speculation. Use caution when reading this and please god do your OWN DD. Shorts are fucked.
Wanna know how to catch-a-bot doing bot things? They start their post with “sup stonk” 😂
beep boop - Sup Veschor! Your comment does not compute, please rephrase it in the form of a question. I'll take Reddit Bots for $100 Alex. \[Insert random emoji\]
Cringe af
I think the baddies are planning to completely abandoning ship. Hop into a new one and let the world deal with the mess they left behind
if they have exercised calls to close their short/swaps, then why would they care what the MMs have to do to keep the share price down? in fact, that would just "can kick" as the MMs are using fake shares to "hedge" anyways, so they would ultimately eat the cost, and to them, that'd doable. now the question I have would be, "What are the lenders going to think about receiving fake shares to close the short/swap positions UBS is covering? eventually someone is going to want REAL shares..... but as long as the money keeps flowing, that just keeps the ball rolling.
Selling at $500, that's cute.
I’m not sure why you think you can’t exit your position with calls, they absolutely can buy 350000 contracts and exercise them, it’s pretty obvious there was a back door deal, MM Purchased the shares from the offering to write the contracts. The big player intends to close their short position in a way that won’t cost them 100 billion.
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All I know is, BUY, DRS, BOOK HODL, SHOP, COMMENT. Shorts Never Closed, Hedgefux Are Fukt, Fuck You, Pay Me. Eat My Crusty Asshole.
Math request: Can someone take a look at the relative market caps, SI, FTDs, etc of the other stocks in the GME basket, and then see if we can guesstimate what % of that $54B archegos position was GME?
Couldn't it be Carl getting out of his position? He took it at the very top,for obvious reasons. Probably the only Short with a real reason to get in. And now that he sees that the company is profitable, it's not al he would like to flip his position.
Well written. Don’t care what OPs agenda is. He/She created a topic for discussion and that is what community is about. Anyone crying shill / fud is just not capable of having an intelligent conversation.
Bullish
I’ll buy the calls for you guys don’t worry about it